by Zealously

Group F: Dealing with Old Acquaintances
MarineKingPrime, Samsung_RorO, MVP.KeeN, LG-IM_Mvp

The story headlining Group F is doubtlessly the most abusive relationship in the history of Starcraft 2: that of MarineKingPrime and LG-IM_Mvp. The two have met many times over the years, and out of 24 official games, Mvp has won 20 of them while not losing a single series. The two other players in Samsung Khan’s RorO and MVP’s KeeN don’t possess half the name value that Mvp and MKP do, but RorO’s resurgence in Proleague and Keen’s string of strong performances toward the end of last year make them serious contenders in this group.

The first match of the night will be MarineKingPrime going up against Samsung_RorO. There are three important things to note about this match-up.

1) Marineking will only have been in Korea for two days or so, having just returned from being mauled in two consecutive TvZs at Iron Squid II by Life and Nestea.
Not only does this probably mean that MKP will be struggling with jet lag, it will also mean that MKP, whose emotions remain a strong factor in his game play, might be plagued by lack of confidence in his play versus Zerg. Though being stomped by a player like Life isn't particularly shameful, his 3rd/4th place match against Nestea was anything but impressive, with three straight losses to all-ins.

While MKP's vs. Zerg hasn’t been a strong point since the queen patch, it's still something to fear when he's left alone to play the kind of games he wants. But with Zergs everywhere learning to fully exploit Marineking's relative predictability, it is unlikely that he'll be left alone for any great length of time.

2) Though RorO had a string of abysmal performances through round one of Proleague, his play has recently taken a turn for the better as more and more people decided to put him on their FPL anti-teams (a sure-fire sign that he would perform well, dating back to his Brood War career). With regained confidence and vastly improved gameplay, RorO has gone back to being one of the stronger KeSPA Zergs. Thus, he's also become a very legitimate threat to a Marineking who will not only be playing his weakest match-up against a strong opponent, but while hindered by jet lag and lack of confidence as well.

3) RorO essentially had his place in the Ro16 secured last season, only losing to Hack due to the amateurish mistake of leaving several ultralisks in a nydus worm.

If RorO avoids making such mistakes again, he is the unmistakable favorite. But if there's another thing Brood War has told us, it's that there's danger in proclaiming him the favorite. RorO defeats expectations both ways, for better and for worse, and might prove to be his own worst enemy in this match.

The second match of the night is between IM_Mvp, who is once again starting to be doubted by the fans, and MVP_KeeN, who has recently had reason to be optimistic.

The former had a rough ride in last season’s Ro32 with somewhat one-sided losses to Creator and DongRaeGu, and the latter fared only a little better as he too went out, losing to Bogus and Leenock. However, both of them seemed to shake off the effects of those questionable performances, and advanced out of Code A in convincing fashion. Their ups and downs in form make it hard to evalulate their skill, and the fact that neither played a TvT on their way back to Code S makes it even more difficult.

TvT has historically been Mvp’s strongest match-up, at his best being completely untouchable, and at worst making him one of the few to dominate MKP even at the times when the Prime Terran was at his peak. But Keen has shown that he is no slouch in the match-up, and was practically bursting with confidence in his Code A interview, convinced that early 2013 would be the year when he finally broke through as a true championship contender.

As Keen does not have any recent recorded TvT games (his latest being his 0-2 loss to InnoVation), the edge must go to the player who has shown himself to be a deadly force in the match-up for nearly all of Wings of Liberty. Mvp may not be NaDa, a player who simply would not lose to KeeN under any circumstances, but he's similar enough to him in the "used to win a bunch of stuff all the time" aspect. If that's something that gives you an inherent advantage against KeeN, then Mvp has no lack of trophies to draw power from.

Overall outlook and predictions

Every Mvp fan around the world will be begging for Marineking to beat RorO and for Mvp to beat Keen so that Mvp can have a free ride to the Round of 16, seeing as MKP is “The only easy player remaining in Code S”. However, with the condition MKP might be in, it seems more likely that the winner’s match will end up being Mvp vs. RorO.

Condition is a concern for Mvp as well, and you never know which version of him will show up in the Round of 32. Will it be the supremely intelligent Mvp who picks apart opponents like toys, or will it be the Mvp hinting at past greatness but ultimately being bested by hurting wrists? We know that Mvp does not necessarily follow the same rules of logic as everyone else, sometimes advancing over massive favorites in their peak form, and sometimes losing in completely humiliating fashion against players he should beat eleven times out of ten. His recent loss to Goswser in Iron Squid would indicate that it is Mvp’s weak form that is going to show up but, to echo certain other writers, counting out Mvp has many times proven to be utterly foolish, and so I must argue that he is still the favorite in this group.

For second place, it’s going to be a fierce fight between an MKP desperate to redeem himself after disappointing performances last weekend, Keen who has eyes set on the role as Team MVP’s best player and ultimately the championship, and RorO who just wants to upset more anti-fans.

For MKP, I think this group is unfortunately out of his reach. Though he may be at least evenly matched against Keen, RorO’s recent performances in ZvT have been convincing enough for him to be favored against a jetlagged and recently defeated MKP. And though Keen may have beaten Byul in Code A, RorO has recently beaten both last season’s semi-finalist Innovation and SKT ace Fantasy, two of the hottest Terrans in the Proleague.

All things considered, MKP should be considered the underdog in group F, whoever between RorO and KeeN brings his A-game or most clever strategies will likely be advancing alongside the hurting champion. However, Marineking's unpredictability promises that he'll advance in first place somehow if we count him out completely.

Marineking < RorO
Mvp > KeeN
Mvp > RorO
Marineking < KeeN
RorO > KeeN

Mvp and RorO advance.