So you are Seed, the newest champion on the block. With $50,000 in your bank account, your shampoo bottle shaped trophy thrown onto the heap with the rest of LG-IM's trophies, and a new golden badge pinned to your chest, what do you do next? Go to Disney World? Nah, pick SuHoSin to be your first opponent to start the campaign for the defense of your title.
No one really should be surprised that Seed picked SuHoSin. Out of the eight "tier 4" players to choose from (the bottom eight players in GSL performances this year), the obvious choice is the part-time progamer who was the first pick last season as well, getting picked by Mvp and going 0-2 in the group.
Let's look at who he could have chosen instead: Bomber, Heart, Life, YoDa, MaNa, Rain, or Jaedong. Seed has already been beat 0 - 2 by Rain in WCS Korea, knows that PvP is volatile, and all three Terrans are dangerous if yet unproven in Code S. Throw in the fact that PvZ is Seed's best match-up, and this becomes a more than obvious choice for the champion.
As talked about in the primer,ST_Suhoshin is a special case when looking over the players this season. He knows that he isn't as good as the other players in Code S, and he openly admits that the only reason he is in Code S this season is because Shine beat aLive when he had nothing to play for in the last game of their Up/Down group. If he has a side-job as it's alleged, then he has a serious disadvantage compared to the other thirty one players in the tournament. There's no doubt about it: he's the least likely to win the championship out of anyone in this season of Code S.
In his underdog run to the quarterfinals in last season's Super Tournament (when he was still pretty good), SuHoSin made lots of mutas every series and didn't diverge from that strategy. He was able to knock off top players in the first three rounds, and he was one game away from knocking out TOP in the quarters to make the semifinals. Last season, to get into Code S for the first time, he decided that mutas were old hat and just made lots and lots of roaches. This strategy surprisingly worked, somehow countering the complicated plans laid out by his opponents. He won his tiebreaker in his Up/Down group against Polt and Vines and advanced onward. His-all-in-80%-of-the-time strategy sadly didn't work out so well in the actual Code S tournament, thought he did manage to shock Mvp in one game before losing four straight to go back down to Code A.
The two other players in the group, PartinG and Leenock, are young players still searching for their first GSL championship. Both considered by most to be top five players of their race, you would have imagined they'd be among the first players to win titles and signal generation change in the GSL. So far, they've been kept well at bay by their seniors, as Jjakji's victory is fades further and further from our memories. Parting should be gunning for at least a finals appearance after a quarterfinal finish during season one, a semifinal loss in season two, and a bronze medal during WCS Korea. His form has been good of late, beating his new found 'rival' Baby in his first game of OSL, finishing it off with a ceremony and gaining new fans at the OGN studios. While his fan base might be growing, it won't matter if he can't improve from last season's disappointing result in the group stages.
Leenock, Parting's first opponent in the group, is no stranger to being in finals. Now with two major MLG championships and a silver medal during GSL November, Leenock might be the only top Zerg in Korea who currently isn't slumping. DongRaeGu is in the worst slump of his career, Nestea has been looking like a shell of his former self, and Symbol, the royal roader with the most hype last season, is not looking so dominant after losing to Seed in last season's quarterfinals. Since pulling himself out of a slump and getting himself back into Code S, Leenock has been on a fiery streak, grabbing the Summer MLG Championship and helping his team win their first GSTL title.
What could be a saving grace or a death sentence, PartinG and Leenock are going up against each other at their mutual worst match-ups. Leenock and Parting have never been very strong in the vP or vZ match-ups respectively, but they will need to overcome their weakness to get out of the group. Granted, Leenock did annihilate First 4 - 1 in the MLG grand finals, but a lot of that could be attributed to First's stage fright, and the fact that his PvZ looked very poor compared to his powerhouse PvT.
Overall thoughts and prediction:
Off the bat, it would be very easy to cross out SuHoSin and say it's a three man race. This might be the case, but due to Seed's recent 0 - 2 loss to Rain, and Parting having a sub 50% win percentage against Zerg, you can't say it's impossible for him to get out if he's well prepared AND very lucky. Following in the foot steps of SanZenith from over a year ago, Suho will try to prove everyone wrong and show that he truly belongs in this star-studded tournament.
Parting is an amazing PvT player and very good at the coin flipping match-up, but his games against Zerg have shown a lot to be desired. Leenock has been killing it recently against Protoss, and he is slowly turning his worst match-up into maybe his strongest. That's nothing a few good two-base all-ins can't fix, but PartinG will have to watch out for Leenock's patented (or licensed from July, if you want to say so) no-hive style. Against Seed, PartinG does have the nice boost of beating him recently in the winner semifinals of WCS Korea, but PvP is a match-up where past results mean the least.
All in all, Seed is the favorite, being the champion and all, but this won't be a cake walk. Beating SuHoSin might not be the hardest task if he doesn't fall to cheese or all-ins, but Leenock and Parting are formidable opponents. Losing to Parting and then Roro to get knocked out of WCS Korea must have been a bit of a shock for Seed, but with his high confidence and never say die attitude, you have to believe that he'll be over the disappointment by the time the first match starts.
Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.
Parting is weakest against Zerg, and Leenock has done better against protoss lately, but not enough to win me over entirely. Leenock seems to rely a lot on uncommon styles of play and gimmicks to win in ZvP. Though he is very fun to watch at least. Parting isn't bad or anything in the mu, just not particularly notable like MC or Seed are. So yeah Parting 2-1.
No idea how the pvp will go. Aside from Squirtle, MC, and perhaps Creator as of late, I never do in that matchup :/
Then either protoss will beat either of the Zergs to come in 2nd.
On September 03 2012 07:59 Waxangel wrote: Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.
"You have to believe he'll be over the disappointment"
"Leenock and PartinG advance"
as much as I would love love LOVE parting to get past this group, I'm not seeing it. Seed gets basically a free win over SuHo, and either Leenock or PartinG have to fight from being one game down.
Obviously anything could happen (PartinG and SuHo advance!) but I don't know why you'd not predict Seed to get out, especially since the article was hyping how Seed is the favorite to get out.
I find myself in a dilemma as to how to feel about these predictions.
I like that they are ballsy as all hell. I like that that it draws upon past experience of winners struggling in the subsequent season. I have my doubts as to how good Leenock's ZvP is, but I can see it going exactly this way.
On the other hand, do I want them to be right? I have a sick feeling that my own predictions will be wrecked by someone, somehow. Somewhere in Korea a player I am reasonably sure will make it will fail spectacularly and quite possibly 0-4 his group. So if somehow Fionn gets this right, not only predicting a favorite who has what is as close to a free-win in his first match to go out but having him go out after being in the final? Seems hard to match up to.
On the other hand, if somehow TL writers go on a sick streak getting things right this season while I struggle to even get one of my picks past groups, my back up plan is solid; I will do my best to become the Kim Carrier of TL predictions.
It will be a fantastic way to kick off what has the promise to be a fantastic Code S season.
On September 03 2012 07:59 Waxangel wrote: Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.
He hates IM. He never predicts IM players to advance unless they are gigantic favorites. He also says they are slumping at every opportunity.
lol Fionn.. I can't tell if you are trolling with these predictions or trying to counter the jinx. But then again, countering the jinx with Suhosin winning is pretty bold too...
Considering Leenock's ZvP, and the fact that there are two protosses of the caliber of Seed and Parting in his group, this prediction looks to be either a stroke of genius or a total misread. While Leenock has beaten MC (and First and Alicia and Tails and some others) recently, the only one I would consider to be a first-class PvZer would be MC, and I would be inclined to call this a fluke, since he got 2-0 by SKT.Rain soon afterwards (eventhough Rain's PvZ is crazy good). PartinG and Seed to advance, unless Leenock can pull a miracle (and SuHoSin is most likely going to lose every game).
On September 03 2012 07:59 Waxangel wrote: Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.
He hates IM. He never predicts IM players to advance unless they are gigantic favorites. He also says they are slumping at every opportunity.
Yeah I think people voted against him before he became champion because he was relatively unknown and he was always the underdog. Now people vote against him because of the GSL curse - disappearing off the face of the Earth after winning Code S. I for one will stick by my guns and keep rooting for Seed!!
On September 03 2012 10:54 laerteis wrote: These predictions make no sense to me. I'm kinda new around here. Maybe I'm missing an inside joke?
But what would be the fun in reading these things if they always perfectly aligned with what you think would happen? Seeing the amount of top players in the field, I think there will be a rather large amount of people vehemently disagreeing with the predictions in just about every group.
Also, what would be fun in having no predictions to mock afterwards? <3
I really want Suhosin to win this season and just make a mockery of all of Starcraft 2. At first I disliked him, but now I'm just in awe of his fantastic luck and his constantly furrowed brow. Suhosin fighting!
Great predictions and I think you are spot on. Takes some balls to bet against the GSL winner though :D. Also if Suhosin wins by one or two-basing everybody I will laugh my ass of and enjoy the LR thread like nothing before.
I don't see Seed losing to both Leenock and Parting. Seeds not losing his first round and he showed good PvP and PvZ last run. He will at least beat one of them.
But tbf stranger things have happened. Like Mvp losing to Naama, and PvP's more of a coinflip than any other match-up in the book. Anything's possible.
On September 03 2012 07:57 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote:
Leenock, Parting's first opponent in the group, is no stranger to being in finals. Now with two major MLG championships and a silver medal during GSL November, Leenock might be the only top Zerg in Korea who currently isn't slumping. DongRaeGu is in the worst slump of his career, Nestea has been looking like a shell of his former self, and Symbol, the royal roader with the most hype last season, is not looking so dominatnt after losing to Seed in last season's quarterfinals. Since pulling himself out of a slump and getting himself back into Code S, Leenock has been on a fiery streak, grabbing the Summer MLG Championship and helping his team win their first GSTL title.
On September 03 2012 07:59 Waxangel wrote: Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.
He hates IM. He never predicts IM players to advance unless they are gigantic favorites. He also says they are slumping at every opportunity.
On September 03 2012 11:43 tuho12345 wrote: Parting over Seed? Bullshit he can't beat Seed in PvP lol, Parting's PvP sucks while Seed is the best.
recently in wcs korea parting 2-0ed seed in some fairly easy matches with only 1 of them being a BO win. that said, seed also didnt look strong against roro where he lost 0-2, so he was probably not on form, predicting seed 1st and parting 2nd.
On September 03 2012 16:07 AgentChaos wrote: Seed to loses??????
At some point, every vampire faces someone with garlic and another holy water.
Although, if Suhosin actually goes through by winning against Seed, I am going to make it my life long mission to have him known as the Van Helsing Zerg.
Same predictions that I made. Maybe I have to watch some Seed replays but I still haven't been that impressed with him, though I think I'm pretty damn hard to impress. I will keep a closer eye on him tonight.
On September 03 2012 07:59 Waxangel wrote: Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.
pretty much this, I know you like weird bets Fionn but this is Seed
SuHoSin is very fun to watch in game one. Very creative and glad to cast Tastosis stil casting the Code S. Are they doing the entire Code S does anyone know?
On September 04 2012 13:05 BWalma wrote: SuHoSin is very fun to watch in game one. Very creative and glad to cast Tastosis stil casting the Code S. Are they doing the entire Code S does anyone know?
They will. However if they go to a foreign tournament to cast they usually miss the next Monday/Tuesday for Gom; no announcements of them casting anything else at the moment though.
EPT
LG-IMSeed, 
ST_SuHoSin, 
