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[Code S] Ro32 Group A Preview (S4)

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[Code S] Ro32 Group A Preview (S4)

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byMeko
September 2nd, 2012 22:57 GMT
  • GSL on Liquipedia
  • Code S Ro32: Group A Preview

Code S Ro32: Group A Preview


By: Fionn

Group A: (P)LG-IMSeed, (Z)ST_SuHoSin, (P)ST_PartinG, (Z)FXOLeenock

So you are (P)Seed, the newest champion on the block. With $50,000 in your bank account, your shampoo bottle shaped trophy thrown onto the heap with the rest of LG-IM's trophies, and a new golden badge pinned to your chest, what do you do next? Go to Disney World? Nah, pick (Z)SuHoSin to be your first opponent to start the campaign for the defense of your title.

No one really should be surprised that Seed picked SuHoSin. Out of the eight "tier 4" players to choose from (the bottom eight players in GSL performances this year), the obvious choice is the part-time progamer who was the first pick last season as well, getting picked by Mvp and going 0-2 in the group.

Let's look at who he could have chosen instead: Bomber, Heart, Life, YoDa, MaNa, Rain, or Jaedong. Seed has already been beat 0 - 2 by Rain in WCS Korea, knows that PvP is volatile, and all three Terrans are dangerous if yet unproven in Code S. Throw in the fact that PvZ is Seed's best match-up, and this becomes a more than obvious choice for the champion.

As talked about in the primer, (Z)ST_Suhoshin is a special case when looking over the players this season. He knows that he isn't as good as the other players in Code S, and he openly admits that the only reason he is in Code S this season is because Shine beat aLive when he had nothing to play for in the last game of their Up/Down group. If he has a side-job as it's alleged, then he has a serious disadvantage compared to the other thirty one players in the tournament. There's no doubt about it: he's the least likely to win the championship out of anyone in this season of Code S.

In his underdog run to the quarterfinals in last season's Super Tournament (when he was still pretty good), SuHoSin made lots of mutas every series and didn't diverge from that strategy. He was able to knock off top players in the first three rounds, and he was one game away from knocking out TOP in the quarters to make the semifinals. Last season, to get into Code S for the first time, he decided that mutas were old hat and just made lots and lots of roaches. This strategy surprisingly worked, somehow countering the complicated plans laid out by his opponents. He won his tiebreaker in his Up/Down group against Polt and Vines and advanced onward. His-all-in-80%-of-the-time strategy sadly didn't work out so well in the actual Code S tournament, thought he did manage to shock Mvp in one game before losing four straight to go back down to Code A.

The two other players in the group, (P)PartinG and (Z)Leenock, are young players still searching for their first GSL championship. Both considered by most to be top five players of their race, you would have imagined they'd be among the first players to win titles and signal generation change in the GSL. So far, they've been kept well at bay by their seniors, as Jjakji's victory is fades further and further from our memories. Parting should be gunning for at least a finals appearance after a quarterfinal finish during season one, a semifinal loss in season two, and a bronze medal during WCS Korea. His form has been good of late, beating his new found 'rival' Baby in his first game of OSL, finishing it off with a ceremony and gaining new fans at the OGN studios. While his fan base might be growing, it won't matter if he can't improve from last season's disappointing result in the group stages.

Leenock, Parting's first opponent in the group, is no stranger to being in finals. Now with two major MLG championships and a silver medal during GSL November, Leenock might be the only top Zerg in Korea who currently isn't slumping. DongRaeGu is in the worst slump of his career, Nestea has been looking like a shell of his former self, and Symbol, the royal roader with the most hype last season, is not looking so dominant after losing to Seed in last season's quarterfinals. Since pulling himself out of a slump and getting himself back into Code S, Leenock has been on a fiery streak, grabbing the Summer MLG Championship and helping his team win their first GSTL title.

What could be a saving grace or a death sentence, PartinG and Leenock are going up against each other at their mutual worst match-ups. Leenock and Parting have never been very strong in the vP or vZ match-ups respectively, but they will need to overcome their weakness to get out of the group. Granted, Leenock did annihilate First 4 - 1 in the MLG grand finals, but a lot of that could be attributed to First's stage fright, and the fact that his PvZ looked very poor compared to his powerhouse PvT.

Overall thoughts and prediction:

Off the bat, it would be very easy to cross out SuHoSin and say it's a three man race. This might be the case, but due to Seed's recent 0 - 2 loss to Rain, and Parting having a sub 50% win percentage against Zerg, you can't say it's impossible for him to get out if he's well prepared AND very lucky. Following in the foot steps of SanZenith from over a year ago, Suho will try to prove everyone wrong and show that he truly belongs in this star-studded tournament.

Parting is an amazing PvT player and very good at the coin flipping match-up, but his games against Zerg have shown a lot to be desired. Leenock has been killing it recently against Protoss, and he is slowly turning his worst match-up into maybe his strongest. That's nothing a few good two-base all-ins can't fix, but PartinG will have to watch out for Leenock's patented (or licensed from July, if you want to say so) no-hive style. Against Seed, PartinG does have the nice boost of beating him recently in the winner semifinals of WCS Korea, but PvP is a match-up where past results mean the least.

All in all, Seed is the favorite, being the champion and all, but this won't be a cake walk. Beating SuHoSin might not be the hardest task if he doesn't fall to cheese or all-ins, but Leenock and Parting are formidable opponents. Losing to Parting and then Roro to get knocked out of WCS Korea must have been a bit of a shock for Seed, but with his high confidence and never say die attitude, you have to believe that he'll be over the disappointment by the time the first match starts.

Seed > SuHoSin
Leenock > Parting
Leenock > Seed
Parting > SuHoSin
Parting > Seed

Prediction: Leenock and PartinG advance.





Writer: Fionn.
Graphics and Art: Meko.
Editor: Waxangel.
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TL+ Member
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33397 Posts
September 02 2012 22:59 GMT
#2
Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7310 Posts
September 02 2012 23:08 GMT
#3
Leenock over Seed? Mmm, thats bold, but Leenock has been performing vP lately, lets see how well thats holding up.

Personally I like all of the players here and any of them advancing will be fine for me, but Seed/Leenock seems like the most likely outcome.

I really can't say I'd be surprised to see PartinG/Leenock or PartinG/Seed to get out though.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
niukasu1990
Profile Joined July 2012
1007 Posts
September 02 2012 23:08 GMT
#4
Seed did not 0-2 rain. He 0-2 roro
Duvamil
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom11 Posts
September 02 2012 23:08 GMT
#5
I don't know really. I'm hoping for upsets. Not enough to liquibet on it like, but it would be hilarious if SuHoSin made it through top
Watch out for the Space Butterfly!
MasterKang
Profile Joined August 2011
United States1373 Posts
September 02 2012 23:11 GMT
#6
I'm pretty sure Seed gets first unless he loses to Parting in the winner's match
Players: MMA, Boxer, Ryung, Life, TaeJa, Squirtle, Brown, Dark,
shabby
Profile Joined March 2010
Norway6402 Posts
September 02 2012 23:24 GMT
#7
Leenock and Seed has this, not Parting, tbh.
Jaedong, Gumibear, Leenock, Byun
FrostedMiniWheats
Profile Joined August 2010
United States30730 Posts
September 02 2012 23:26 GMT
#8
It'll be Seed and Parting

Seed should be a very easy 2-0 over Line.

Parting is weakest against Zerg, and Leenock has done better against protoss lately, but not enough to win me over entirely. Leenock seems to rely a lot on uncommon styles of play and gimmicks to win in ZvP. Though he is very fun to watch at least.
Parting isn't bad or anything in the mu, just not particularly notable like MC or Seed are. So yeah Parting 2-1.

No idea how the pvp will go. Aside from Squirtle, MC, and perhaps Creator as of late, I never do in that matchup :/

Then either protoss will beat either of the Zergs to come in 2nd.
NesTea | Mvp | MC | Leenock | Losira | Gumiho | DRG | Taeja | Jinro | Stephano | Thorzain | Sen | Idra |Polt | Bomber | Symbol | Squirtle | Fantasy | Jaedong | Maru | sOs | Seed | ByuN | ByuL | Neeb| Scarlett | Rogue | IM forever
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
September 02 2012 23:29 GMT
#9
On September 03 2012 07:59 Waxangel wrote:
Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.

pretty sure this is the case
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
KaiserCommander
Profile Joined April 2010
Mexico290 Posts
September 02 2012 23:33 GMT
#10
Non-partial thoughts: PatinG and Seed.
Hopping: Leenock and PartinG

I just think that Leenock must catch his moment this GSL
Jinro, Polt, Bomber, ForGG, MajOr, Flash, Maru. Terran Fighting...
legoboomette
Profile Joined December 2011
England165 Posts
September 02 2012 23:37 GMT
#11
"Seed is the favorite" but hes not predicted to go through. What?
Won(*3*)Chu KissMe!
FrostedMiniWheats
Profile Joined August 2010
United States30730 Posts
September 02 2012 23:42 GMT
#12
On September 03 2012 08:37 legoboomette wrote:
"Seed is the favorite" but hes not predicted to go through. What?


Seed is the best on paper in the group. However, time and time again, things don't necessarily go as they should in sc2.
NesTea | Mvp | MC | Leenock | Losira | Gumiho | DRG | Taeja | Jinro | Stephano | Thorzain | Sen | Idra |Polt | Bomber | Symbol | Squirtle | Fantasy | Jaedong | Maru | sOs | Seed | ByuN | ByuL | Neeb| Scarlett | Rogue | IM forever
Trasko
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Sweden983 Posts
September 02 2012 23:44 GMT
#13
I think Seed will struggle to get through, but will probably make it. Leenock on the other hand... not sure.
Jaedong <3
winthrop
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Hong Kong956 Posts
September 02 2012 23:46 GMT
#14
Seed and Suhosin advance!
Incredible Miracle
Proseat
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Germany5113 Posts
September 02 2012 23:47 GMT
#15
So how does this go? GSL winner falls to Code A in the subsequent season?
The Rise and Fall of SlayerS -- a timeline: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=378097
LowEloPlayer
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
United States205 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-03 00:01:28
September 03 2012 00:00 GMT
#16
"You have to believe he'll be over the disappointment"

"Leenock and PartinG advance"

as much as I would love love LOVE parting to get past this group, I'm not seeing it. Seed gets basically a free win over SuHo, and either Leenock or PartinG have to fight from being one game down.

Obviously anything could happen (PartinG and SuHo advance!) but I don't know why you'd not predict Seed to get out, especially since the article was hyping how Seed is the favorite to get out.
hmm... let's think about it
Sumahi
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Guam5609 Posts
September 03 2012 00:04 GMT
#17
Go Line! I hope you advance, cause it'll change the entire storyline for GSL 4 if you actually win games (despite your style and your part time job).
Startale <3, ST_July <3, HongUn <3, Savior <3, Gretorp <3, Nada <3, Rainbow <3, Ret <3, Squirtle <3, Bomber <3
[F_]aths
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Germany3947 Posts
September 03 2012 00:05 GMT
#18
On September 03 2012 08:46 winthrop wrote:
Seed and Suhosin advance!

That is what I actually hope for ... for the lols and a good storyline.
You don't choose to play zerg. The zerg choose you.
Porcelina
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
United Kingdom3249 Posts
September 03 2012 00:07 GMT
#19
I find myself in a dilemma as to how to feel about these predictions.

I like that they are ballsy as all hell. I like that that it draws upon past experience of winners struggling in the subsequent season. I have my doubts as to how good Leenock's ZvP is, but I can see it going exactly this way.

On the other hand, do I want them to be right? I have a sick feeling that my own predictions will be wrecked by someone, somehow. Somewhere in Korea a player I am reasonably sure will make it will fail spectacularly and quite possibly 0-4 his group. So if somehow Fionn gets this right, not only predicting a favorite who has what is as close to a free-win in his first match to go out but having him go out after being in the final? Seems hard to match up to.

On the other hand, if somehow TL writers go on a sick streak getting things right this season while I struggle to even get one of my picks past groups, my back up plan is solid; I will do my best to become the Kim Carrier of TL predictions.

It will be a fantastic way to kick off what has the promise to be a fantastic Code S season.

Oh, and <3 Fionn.
JJH777
Profile Joined January 2011
United States4408 Posts
September 03 2012 00:18 GMT
#20
On September 03 2012 07:59 Waxangel wrote:
Seed has the easiest first opponent, and Leenock and PartinG are on the same part of the bracket. I don't know how you can predict Leenock and PartinG to advance, unless you are intentionally trying to reverse jinx by being wrong.


He hates IM. He never predicts IM players to advance unless they are gigantic favorites. He also says they are slumping at every opportunity.
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