EPTIOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind.
TL Mafia 2 [GG] - Page 9
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind. | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
that makes no sense lol Obviously there is a chance any of us could end up being mafia.....but its like a 1/7 chance lol thats a lot better odds than anyone else | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
1) Last game, when Chuiu closed the vote, 7/57 townies were candidates. 0/14 mafia were candidates. (link). That worked out fine for them, by the way. 2) It doesn't make sense for the Mafia to put up more than a couple of candidates: a) The more people they put up, the harder it is to influence the vote for any one of them. b) The more people they put up for election, the more people fingers can be pointed at down the line. Townies, on the other hand, don't have to worry about these things. 3) You don't seem to realize that your reasoning cuts both ways: Sure, if you're right, and the Mafia will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the town, the odds favor voting for you, but if you're wrong, and the town will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the Mafia, the odds favor voting for someone other than you. 4) In any case, none of that is what I was saying in my above post. I said this: on that 1/7 chance that you are Mafia, you've locked yourself into being the Mafia candidate. That makes it slightly more likely, that between you and another candidate, you are the Mafioso. For argument's sake, take two people A and B. Assume the Mafia has at most one candidate. A has declared his candidacy beforehand. If neither is Mafia, that is that. If A is Mafia (1/7 chance), A is the Mafia candidate. If B is Mafia and A is not (~6/49 chance), B is the Mafia candidate. If both are Mafia (~1/49), A is the Mafia candidate, because he's already locked himself in. So everything else being equal, it is more likely that A is the Mafia's candidate. You are A. You will probably not be Mafia (like any other given person), but everything else being equal, you are slightly more likely to be a Mafia candidate than someone else who is running. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 14 2008 14:38 qrs wrote: OK, so far fusion, caller, and Empyrean have all said that they will run for mayor no matter what. That means that if they end up mafioso, the Mafia practically has to put them up for election, otherwise it will be clear that they are Mafia (why else wouldn't they run). IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind. actually no he is right, this is nonsense. As an innocent townie, above all else your best bet is to elect a Mayor and Pardoner that are above all else highly competent. Having a dumb innocent townie is just as bad as having a Mafia Mayor. If you elect a really smart Mayor who just so happens to be Mafia a few things can happen so that the town comes out ahead: 1.) The first day one of the detectives investigates the Mayor, another one or another day Pardoner. If they turn up innocent they either truly are, or happen to be Godfathers. If they turn up guilty well thats a quick Mafia death. 2.) The detectives never do it, but if the Mayor that was elected was supposed to be highly competent the smart townies can trap him if they think he is doing a bad job. As a competent Mayor, certain actions would be expected and if they aren't doing them even when it HAS to be best for the town well then they are Mafia or useless. 3.) You elect both a really smart Mayor and really smart Pardoner, and as long as both aren't Mafia the power struggle that will ensue would be hurtful if even one of them is Mafia. What those 3 are saying is that they think they are SMART enough to lead the town, and in the Mafia games I've played and admined thats the kind of strategy I would go for as an innocent townie. A Mafia Mayor or Mafia Pardoner can be cornered if you know they have to be thinking logically. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
No. You keep saying that, but it's groundless. You're assuming that the Mafia will put up a higher percentage of its people for mayor than the town will, but there is no reason to think that that is the case. 1) Last game, when Chuiu closed the vote, 7/57 townies were candidates. 0/14 mafia were candidates. ([url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251¤tpage=39#763]link[/url]). That worked out fine for them, by the way. 2) It doesn't make sense for the Mafia to put up more than a couple of candidates: a) The more people they put up, the harder it is to influence the vote for any one of them. b) The more people they put up for election, the more people fingers can be pointed at down the line. [quote] The ONLY reason that happened is because the Townies were so fucking BAD. In a game full of good players, the Mafia might have been toasted. With no Mafia Mayor, and no Mafia Pardoner, and the Mafia not electing to try and get at least one person in office was a mistake. It makes plenty of sense for the Mafia to put up more than 1 candidate, and when the game starts I may even get the chance to show you why. They dont have to influence the vote for any one candidate, they just need to start a bandwagon to get townies to believe it's the right choice. Even if they put up 3 people, in a game of 128 and possibly 6 to 7 candidates it will still take time and a lot of convincing to get caught. [quote] Townies, on the other hand, don't have to worry about these things. 3) You don't seem to realize that your reasoning cuts both ways: Sure, if you're right, and the Mafia will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the town, the odds favor voting for you, but if you're wrong, and the town will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the Mafia, the odds favor voting for someone other than you. 4) In any case, none of that is what I was saying in my above post. I said this: on that 1/7 chance that you are Mafia, you've locked yourself into being the Mafia candidate. That makes it slightly more likely, that between you and another candidate, you are the Mafioso. For argument's sake, take two people A and B. Assume the Mafia has at most one candidate. A has declared his candidacy beforehand. If neither is Mafia, that is that. If A is Mafia (1/7 chance), A is the Mafia candidate. If B is Mafia and A is not (~6/49 chance), B is the Mafia candidate. If both are Mafia (~1/49), A is the Mafia candidate, because he's already locked himself in. So everything else being equal, it is more likely that A is the Mafia's candidate. You are A. You will probably not be Mafia (like any other given person), but everything else being equal, you are slightly more likely to be a Mafia candidate than someone else who is running.[/QUOTE] 3 - complete bullshit. There are no odds when it comes to voting for Mayor, especially if the last game is any proof. 4 - also complete crap. | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
On March 14 2008 14:38 qrs wrote: OK, so far fusion, caller, and Empyrean have all said that they will run for mayor no matter what. That means that if they end up mafioso, the Mafia practically has to put them up for election, otherwise it will be clear that they are Mafia (why else wouldn't they run). IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind. That doesn't make any logical sense. How would withdrawing their candidacy in any way make them look like scum? | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 14 2008 15:45 Ace wrote: actually no he is right, this is nonsense. ... What those 3 are saying is that they think they are SMART enough to lead the town, and in the Mafia games I've played and admined thats the kind of strategy I would go for as an innocent townie. A Mafia Mayor or Mafia Pardoner can be cornered if you know they have to be thinking logically. Maybe you're right, maybe not, but that's not what fusion was saying. He was saying that the odds were better that he would be innocent than any other candidate; hence my post explaining why I think his reasoning there is flawed. You say that the whole notion of trying to pick an innocent mayor is nonsense...I have to say I'm a dubious about that. Surely a good mafioso could use the mayoral position to his advantage. If nothing else--even if we lynched him, we wouldn't have a mayor, and that's a disadvantage itself. Besides, it's not that easy to co-ordinate detectives when we don't know who is one. What if all the detectives investigated the mayor the first night--that would be a waste of detection, wouldn't it? As for your final point: "What those 3 are saying is that they think they are SMART enough to lead the town" (the implication being that everyone else is not?) OK, if that argument works for you, fine. I find it somewhat lacking. | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 14 2008 15:51 ahrara_ wrote: That doesn't make any logical sense. How would withdrawing their candidacy in any way make them look like scum? The point is: they have said they are running. They have no reason to change that, unless they answer to someone else. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Even without a Mayor, the Town has Elders and Vigis. Sure we may lose a Mayor, but it surely isn't game over or even close. Really, the ideal setup to winning for the Townies is to have a competent leader that can convince even the most die hard Townies to vote the right way, and be smart about catching Mafia. We don't need to know who the detectives are until a certain point - that's called roleclaiming which is a really good strategy when done right. All the DTs, if smart wouldnt all investigate the Mayor - some would surely hit the Pardoner or even a random townie acting stupid. I've admined and played this game enough to know that when it comes to voting for Mayor trying to pick out who is innocent is a major waste of time unless someone messes up. Just going with "kill multiple birds with one stone" strats forces the Mafia's hand and gets the ball rolling for the townies to survive. | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 14 2008 15:51 Ace wrote: 3 - complete bullshit. There are no odds when it comes to voting for Mayor, especially if the last game is any proof. Good, you agree with me. fusionsdf was the one who was saying that there were odds, based on certain assumptions of his. I pointed out that under different assumptions, the odds would point in the other direction. Honestly, I don't think that there's a really strong basis for either set of assumptions. 4 - also complete crap. Actually, it's not. Think about it. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 14 2008 16:06 qrs wrote: The point is: they have said they are running. They have no reason to change that, unless they answer to someone else. ok look to make this even simpler: I'm running for Mayor also. See? Now even if any of us are Mafia we'll still run for Mayor and you can't figure anything out. Your logic isn't adding up. | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 14 2008 16:10 Ace wrote: ok look to make this even simpler: I'm running for Mayor also. See? Now even if any of us are Mafia we'll still run for Mayor and you can't figure anything out. Yeah, that was basically my point. I didn't mean that there is any reason for the Mafia to make someone withdraw their candidacy; only that if there was a reason, they couldn't do it without looking suspicious. All I was saying was: assuming that 1) the Mafia will not cancel someone's candidacy, and 2) the Mafia does not want to put up more than X number of candidates, then 3) a candidate who had locked himself into running beforehand would have slightly higher odds of being Mafia than a candidate who hadn't. Look, I'm willing to drop the subject: it's only a slight difference. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 14 2008 16:10 qrs wrote: Good, you agree with me. fusionsdf was the one who was saying that there were odds, based on certain assumptions of his. I pointed out that under different assumptions, the odds would point in the other direction. Honestly, I don't think that there's a really strong basis for either set of assumptions. ok good. Actually, it's not. Think about it. I said 4 was crap because this is what it boils down to: The Townies are electing a Mayor and Pardoner based on popularity, intelligence, and whether they think he/she isn't Mafia. The Mafia are electing a Mafia Mayor, or a dumb Townie who is just as good as a Mafia Mayor. Surely, you can see there are no odds to think about here. The number of Mafia do not matter. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
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Night[Mare
Mexico4793 Posts
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 14 2008 16:18 ahrara_ wrote: No qrs. What I'm asking is how you can draw the conclusion that someone is mafia just because they withdraw their candidacy. So if I decide to be a candidate and later withdraw it, you're going to lynch me? I understand the mafia don't want to split the vote, but there are enough legitimate reasons not to want to run for mayor it's not conclusive. Heh, a lot of cross-posting going on here. All right, your point is taken too, ahrara. There may be legitimate reasons to change your mind about running, and that undermines the conclusion I wanted to draw. Still, if someone said he was running and then changed his mind, I would make a note of it. | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 14 2008 16:22 RtS)Night[Mare wrote: lol, isn't that the point of the game?the games hasnt even started and you're already pointing fingers. cmon. anyway, it's late here on the east coast: good night | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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