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On March 15 2008 00:33 Falcynn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2008 00:25 nemY wrote:On March 15 2008 00:17 Falcynn wrote:On March 14 2008 22:03 BWdero wrote:
Yes a new mafia game, and i'm in this time! This is gonna do wonders for my post count. Just make sure you're active >.>  Edit: and reading all of the new posts...how the hell are you guys accusing people of being mafia now? With the people who have already declared their candidacy, yes there's a good chance all of them will be chosen as mafia, but there's just as good a chance that all will be townies...It's all luck at this point, no matter how shady someone might be acting. Obviously the mafia would like one of their own as mayor, but if you take the fact that mafia still kicked our ass last game and the fact that even Chuiu himself (I"m pretty sure it was Chuiu, could've been Dapperdan) said that in all his games he's never seen a mafia mayor. Then you can see that's it's stupid to start listing people who could be mafia, especially before the game starts, just because they're running for mayor. Guys... lynch this mofo. He makes too much sense!!!   You're breaking my balls man. Edit: Also just a random thought, wouldn't it technically be advantageous for mafia to not even try to run for mayor? I mean it seems like everyone here assumes that at least one person who runs for mayor HAS to be mafia. So if the mafia don't even bother to put a candidate up, then later in the game all those towny candidates will essentially end up being scapegoats for the lynchings. All I'm trying to say basically, is when we start lynching people...please come up with a better reasoning than "Well he ran for mayor and at least one of the candidates has to be mafia", because anyways...mayor seems to be useless to mafia. Besides the first lynching (which a towny mayor will probably get wrong anyways) the only powers the mayor has is his extra votes, which are pretty much useless if the town is even half decent (and if town sucks...then they REALLY don't need a mayor). As for the double lynching...well a mafia mayor would have to use his double lynchings in respect to the town's wishes anyways or risk being suspected as mafia. So in reality it seems that the wild goose chase that would ensue from not running for mafia would be more beneficial to them than the mayor or pardoner position would. I say the pardoner position is useless to mafia because then if he decides to pardon a fellow mafia without giving good reason then that guy will probably just be taken out by a vigilante at night. Afterwards the pardoner would be lynched by day giving the town two guaranteed mafia kills.
mafia did that last game, and I highly doubt they would do it again for a couple reasons
1) there are more people, so its harder to figure out who the mafia candidate would be if they exist. Because of this, we have absolutely no idea if mafia runs a candidate or not, which means no real risk for mafia running. We just wont know if its happening or not, so they might as well take advantage of that. Getting us to lynch an innocent mayor is probably fun, but has less advantage for them than just securing the spot in the first place, since even a mistrusted townie mayor still gets a free lynch and can still declare double lynch which obviously benefits the town.
2)Again, because of the numbers and the nature of mob mentality, mafia would only have to risk a very small number of votes to tip the vote to their candidate. This assumes they have a candidate. Obviously, since we cant tell if mafia even brought a candidate (which would be the smart choice) or if they were successful in swinging the vote, we cant exactly start suspecting the mayor because of voting patterns.
You are basically dealing with signal vs noise. Townies have no unified information, and act basically as a mob.(emotional contagion, herd theory, etc.) Because the mafia are unified and coherent (signal) they can greatly sway the vote. Basically once a few votes start going to a candidate, more votes will follow.
Once they get a mafia mayor, he can be subtle to try and mislead the town, or he can simply say screw you guys I'm mafia. Trading one day's lynch and preventing future double lynches still benefits the mafia. (Not that he should, but I'm just trying to show that mafia mayor benefits mafia in every case, even if he gets lynched)
3) There are huge benefits to being mayor. Preventing double lynch is huge, so is the election day lynch. Mafia mayor makes the bodyguards pretty much useless, especially if the pardoner is mafia/lynched.
The mayor is really a super detective. They can be obvious about their suspicions without fearing death. So its best not to waste that position on either mafia or people who aren't good at clues/willing to spend a ton of time deciphering clues, making lists, researching etc.
A mafia mayor really plays a denial role to one of only two hit-proof roles.
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On March 15 2008 03:07 Dapperdan wrote:
Wow, all of those rants were comletely unnecessary and useless. ;b If that was directed at me, I know I just like having excuses to write random crap.
Also I realize that mayor isn't completely useless to mafia and does give them a large advantage. What I'm trying to say is that it doesn't warrant such a large advantage that it's absolutely guaranteed that one of the candidates has to be mafia.
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On March 15 2008 03:57 L wrote:
I'll sign up : )
I hope I'm on your team.
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Ahh man, I really want to be mayor that would be sweet. Just getting my name out there.
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Damn this is going to be long, hasn't even started and is already 11 pages long ^^
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On March 15 2008 12:03 HotZhot wrote:
Damn this is going to be long, hasn't even started and is already 11 pages long ^^
I know, and I'm so excited that I keep checking back hoping the game has started. It sucks because i've been recovering from wrist surgery this week and haven't had much to do, so this would be like the most exciting thing on my agenda
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On March 15 2008 12:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:I know, and I'm so excited that I keep checking back hoping the game has started. It sucks because i've been recovering from wrist surgery this week and haven't had much to do, so this would be like the most exciting thing on my agenda
I think they said that the game was going to start on Sunday.
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On March 15 2008 07:16 fusionsdf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2008 00:33 Falcynn wrote:On March 15 2008 00:25 nemY wrote:On March 15 2008 00:17 Falcynn wrote:On March 14 2008 22:03 BWdero wrote:
Yes a new mafia game, and i'm in this time! This is gonna do wonders for my post count. Just make sure you're active >.> Edit: and reading all of the new posts...how the hell are you guys accusing people of being mafia now? With the people who have already declared their candidacy, yes there's a good chance all of them will be chosen as mafia, but there's just as good a chance that all will be townies...It's all luck at this point, no matter how shady someone might be acting. Obviously the mafia would like one of their own as mayor, but if you take the fact that mafia still kicked our ass last game and the fact that even Chuiu himself (I"m pretty sure it was Chuiu, could've been Dapperdan) said that in all his games he's never seen a mafia mayor. Then you can see that's it's stupid to start listing people who could be mafia, especially before the game starts, just because they're running for mayor. Guys... lynch this mofo. He makes too much sense!!! You're breaking my balls man. Edit: Also just a random thought, wouldn't it technically be advantageous for mafia to not even try to run for mayor? I mean it seems like everyone here assumes that at least one person who runs for mayor HAS to be mafia. So if the mafia don't even bother to put a candidate up, then later in the game all those towny candidates will essentially end up being scapegoats for the lynchings. All I'm trying to say basically, is when we start lynching people...please come up with a better reasoning than "Well he ran for mayor and at least one of the candidates has to be mafia", because anyways...mayor seems to be useless to mafia. Besides the first lynching (which a towny mayor will probably get wrong anyways) the only powers the mayor has is his extra votes, which are pretty much useless if the town is even half decent (and if town sucks...then they REALLY don't need a mayor). As for the double lynching...well a mafia mayor would have to use his double lynchings in respect to the town's wishes anyways or risk being suspected as mafia. So in reality it seems that the wild goose chase that would ensue from not running for mafia would be more beneficial to them than the mayor or pardoner position would. I say the pardoner position is useless to mafia because then if he decides to pardon a fellow mafia without giving good reason then that guy will probably just be taken out by a vigilante at night. Afterwards the pardoner would be lynched by day giving the town two guaranteed mafia kills. mafia did that last game, and I highly doubt they would do it again for a couple reasons 1) there are more people, so its harder to figure out who the mafia candidate would be if they exist. Because of this, we have absolutely no idea if mafia runs a candidate or not, which means no real risk for mafia running. We just wont know if its happening or not, so they might as well take advantage of that. Getting us to lynch an innocent mayor is probably fun, but has less advantage for them than just securing the spot in the first place, since even a mistrusted townie mayor still gets a free lynch and can still declare double lynch which obviously benefits the town. 2)Again, because of the numbers and the nature of mob mentality, mafia would only have to risk a very small number of votes to tip the vote to their candidate. This assumes they have a candidate. Obviously, since we cant tell if mafia even brought a candidate (which would be the smart choice) or if they were successful in swinging the vote, we cant exactly start suspecting the mayor because of voting patterns. You are basically dealing with signal vs noise. Townies have no unified information, and act basically as a mob.(emotional contagion, herd theory, etc.) Because the mafia are unified and coherent (signal) they can greatly sway the vote. Basically once a few votes start going to a candidate, more votes will follow. Once they get a mafia mayor, he can be subtle to try and mislead the town, or he can simply say screw you guys I'm mafia. Trading one day's lynch and preventing future double lynches still benefits the mafia. (Not that he should, but I'm just trying to show that mafia mayor benefits mafia in every case, even if he gets lynched) 3) There are huge benefits to being mayor. Preventing double lynch is huge, so is the election day lynch. Mafia mayor makes the bodyguards pretty much useless, especially if the pardoner is mafia/lynched. The mayor is really a super detective. They can be obvious about their suspicions without fearing death. So its best not to waste that position on either mafia or people who aren't good at clues/willing to spend a ton of time deciphering clues, making lists, researching etc. A mafia mayor really plays a denial role to one of only two hit-proof roles.
imo potentially sacrificing x1 mafia for a chance to become mayor is worth it, besides i doubt it would give them away as everyone wants to be mayor, they prolly should just pick the most popular amongst them and they got a guaranteed 20 votes + the townies i say if they want it enough the mafioso can become mayor..........oso
EDIT: he could also potentially hold is double lynches and make up reasons as to why not use them for a more oportune time, perhaps even have mafia come up w/ fake theories/support for certain people
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zzzzzz 11 pages of theorycraft and the game hasn't even started yet...
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17082 Posts
On March 14 2008 22:47 qrs wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2008 19:55 Empyrean wrote:
You didn't pass Statistics, did you :/
No fucking way is there an increase in chance of candidates being mafia if they decided before-hand that they would run for mayor no matter what. Especially since deciding to run before-hand is determined by the player and mafia status is chosen randomly by Chuiu. It's not really worth getting into again, but my assumption was that a player's deciding to run beforehand would have an influence on the Mafia's decisions afterward (if that player was assigned to be Mafia). IOW, not that there is an increase in the chance of him being Mafia, but that there is a decrease in the chance of other Mafia running. If you don't agree, OK.
Oh, I had no clue what you had intended to mean in your first post.
In that case, I think I'll agree with what you had to say.
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Please sign me up for round 2 of TL Mafia!
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Sign me up. I'm a total lurker, but I do check the site daily and will participate. 
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This thread is very likely to be closed and Chuiu will start up another one for Mafia Game #2. It's so much simpler that way.
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You guys are going to definitely burn yourselves out very quickly if you start this ranting nonsense before the game even starts.
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or hang each other before it starts.
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300 years later...
Eager to avenge their ancestor's death, in a small town 300 years ago... at the hands of the insane mayor FakeSteve... a small band of marine's ventured forth...
But they were butchered and eaten by a bunch of Jaedong's lings, feeding the swarm.
Thus, the descendants of Alethios were unable to participate in that which they were traveling towards... The Team Liquid Mafia 2 [Signups]. Bummer.
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I can't imagine how much it must've sucked to be you last round.
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On March 15 2008 15:01 Dapperdan wrote:
You guys are going to definitely burn yourselves out very quickly if you start this ranting nonsense before the game even starts.
He doesn't believe in us. I think he's mafia
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EPT
