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Wow, what are the chances
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CDRdude
United States5625 Posts
![]() Wow, what are the chances ![]() | ||
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Empyrean
16950 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote: Show nested quote + Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote: After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] + Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies. If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this: Send a PM to: Bodyguard 1 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better. Send a PM to: Bodyguard 2 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference. PM3: Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor. The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM. This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town. The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town. How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. Hell, if I don't get to be the mayor/pardoner, I'll be the sacrifice. At least it'll benefit the town since I'll die if I don't the the positions anyway. | ||
ShaLLoW[baY]
Canada12499 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:19 CDRdude wrote: Hey guys, I just got this totally legit, 100% non-edited PM from Shallow! ![]() Wow, what are the chances ![]() Didn't you use that same picture last game as well? :p | ||
Falcynn
United States3597 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:14 wurm wrote: OH YEAH! Everyone loves the Falcynn!omg, 10 pages of bickering. I quit halfway through. Thank god for Falcynn's blog. | ||
Hittegods
Stockholm4640 Posts
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
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ShaLLoW[baY]
Canada12499 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:24 fusionsdf wrote: ![]() LOL the best part is that it says "to : ShaLLoW[baY]" and not from. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote: Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying. Read my self checking scheme. Sure we waste some Detective Power, but we get a much needed confirmation of the Mayor's status. An added benefit is that once the Detectives know the Mayor is innocent, he can then PM him and reveal himself. | ||
goldenkrnboi
United States3104 Posts
On March 18 2008 15:41 Chuiu wrote: ...commented Mr. Pink as he began going over the plans. Mr. Blue got in the last word... 63. HeRoS)Pink 95. OneBlueAugust it's too early to tell and it seems a bit too obvious, but let's just keep an eye on these two | ||
qrs
United States3637 Posts
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Kau
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Canada3500 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote: Show nested quote + Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote: After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] + Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies. If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this: Send a PM to: Bodyguard 1 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better. Send a PM to: Bodyguard 2 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference. PM3: Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor. The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM. This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town. The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town. How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. We would only have to lose one detective. Ace said that if the detectives find the mayor is innocent, then they say nothing. If the mayor is mafia, then the detectives speak out. Now in the case the detectives speak out, we would first have to lynch the detective to see if he's an actual detective or mafia. If he's actual detective then we know the mayor is mafia. If he's mafia then we know the mayor is townie. Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? | ||
ShaLLoW[baY]
Canada12499 Posts
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Dark.Carnival
United States5095 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote: Show nested quote + On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote: On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote: Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] + Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies. If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this: Send a PM to: Bodyguard 1 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better. Send a PM to: Bodyguard 2 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference. PM3: Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor. The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM. This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town. The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town. How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. We would only have to lose one detective. Ace said that if the detectives find the mayor is innocent, then they say nothing. If the mayor is mafia, then the detectives speak out. Now in the case the detectives speak out, we would first have to lynch the detective to see if he's an actual detective or mafia. If he's actual detective then we know the mayor is mafia. If he's mafia then we know the mayor is townie. Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? that would be dumb of the mafia? they'd lose that fake detective member as well as a mafia mayor. but yes i'd assume we'd have to lynch both, or in that case order a double lynch and if the mayor doesn't do it then he's mafia? | ||
Falcynn
United States3597 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote: I'd assume so. Basically we just lynch everybody that claims to be detective. So hopefully one detective will find the will to claim that the mayor is mafia and after that the rest of the detectives should not say anything, because everyone else will get lynched as well.Show nested quote + On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote: On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote: Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] + Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies. If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this: Send a PM to: Bodyguard 1 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better. Send a PM to: Bodyguard 2 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference. PM3: Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor. The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM. This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town. The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town. How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. We would only have to lose one detective. Ace said that if the detectives find the mayor is innocent, then they say nothing. If the mayor is mafia, then the detectives speak out. Now in the case the detectives speak out, we would first have to lynch the detective to see if he's an actual detective or mafia. If he's actual detective then we know the mayor is mafia. If he's mafia then we know the mayor is townie. Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? | ||
goldenkrnboi
United States3104 Posts
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote: When I said detective power, I didn't mean just the one detective, but the other 3 wasting one of their "is-he-mafia" questions. But if there's no better way, it's still definitely worth it.Show nested quote + On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote: On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote: Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] + Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies. If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this: Send a PM to: Bodyguard 1 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better. Send a PM to: Bodyguard 2 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference. PM3: Mafia 1 Mafia 2 . . . Mafia 6 You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor. The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM. This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town. The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town. How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. We would only have to lose one detective. Ace said that if the detectives find the mayor is innocent, then they say nothing. If the mayor is mafia, then the detectives speak out. Now in the case the detectives speak out, we would first have to lynch the detective to see if he's an actual detective or mafia. If he's actual detective then we know the mayor is mafia. If he's mafia then we know the mayor is townie. Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? Re your scenario, presumably the Mafia could buy days for their mayor at the rate of one mafioso per day. I don't see more than one detective speaking up at a time--that would be very dangerous for the real detectives. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote: Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? Yes, but another alternative is to apply clues to both of them and find out which fits best and go from there. If we make a mistake and lynch one of them innocently, then the other is sure to be Mafia. When that testimony is resolved we will also know the status of the Mayor. | ||
Falcynn
United States3597 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:34 goldenkrnboi wrote: Then when he pardons someone a vigilante takes that person out the next night. If the person who got pardoned is mafia, then we lynch the pardoner next day.what if the pardoner is mafia? ![]() | ||
goldenkrnboi
United States3104 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:35 Falcynn wrote: Then when he pardons someone a vigilante takes that person out the next night. If the person who got pardoned is mafia, then we lynch the pardoner next day. clever. :O | ||
qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 19 2008 10:37 goldenkrnboi wrote: I don't think it's clever at all. Even if the pardoner pardons a mafioso it may have been accidental; on the other hand, if he pardons an honest man, we waste a vigilante's kill, and lose the guy anyway. And a smart mafioso will pardon an honest man, knowing this, and still be able to pardon the next mafioso who is up for trial. Basically, the plan sucks (sorry Falcynn, but it's true).Show nested quote + On March 19 2008 10:35 Falcynn wrote: On March 19 2008 10:34 goldenkrnboi wrote: Then when he pardons someone a vigilante takes that person out the next night. If the person who got pardoned is mafia, then we lynch the pardoner next day.what if the pardoner is mafia? ![]() clever. :O | ||
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