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[M][N] Holy Guardians - Chapter 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 03 2020 23:58 GMT
#19
Nostalgia has overwhelmed my reason.

/in
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 04 2020 19:49 GMT
#66
Hi peeplz.

Of course I get the lawyer flavor...

On April 05 2020 02:12 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Is that saying you dont belong to the family?
Don't we all have to belong to the family?

And I don't feel sorry for myself because I don't plan on dying


Why do you not plan on dying?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 00:25 GMT
#76
On April 05 2020 08:40 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 04:49 Hapahauli wrote:
Hi peeplz.

Of course I get the lawyer flavor...

On April 05 2020 02:12 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Is that saying you dont belong to the family?
Don't we all have to belong to the family?

And I don't feel sorry for myself because I don't plan on dying


Why do you not plan on dying?
Out of curiosity, why did you ask this? Did you expect me to say "I'm just here to survive because I am mafia" or what?


I found the wording strange. "I don't plan on dying" vs. "I don't expect to die." I mainly ask questions to see the manner in which they respond, as opposed to the answers.

On a scale from 1 (adorable) to 10 (mafioso), where is Shockey's opening posts?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 00:39 GMT
#79
ShoCkeyy, what's your experience playing forum mafia?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 14:07 GMT
#208
Coffee, reading TL... oh hey look Rayn is tunneling me! Sweet sweet old nostalgia.

##Vote: Jockmcplop

My strongest scumread is Jock right now. His posts are full of "puffery" rather than productiveness.

On April 05 2020 13:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Wow does everyone see something off with rayn?

I don't see it.


Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:29 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:24 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 12:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 10:22 Trfel wrote:
So I think the most suspicious person so far is raynpelikoneet.
Implies that I am mafia one post, implies that I am town later
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Is that saying you dont belong to the family?
On April 05 2020 03:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe he fell asleep again? It's also boring to tak with townies only so maybe we wait for the bloody cobbler to arrive.
Why did raynpelikoneet's view change? Even if he's just joking around, if he's town, I expect him to have some perception of my alignment; whatever it is, it can't really fit into both of these statements.


INITIATE DISLIKE PILE.
Care to explain why?

@Vivax, you too?

It looks like you are being very sensitive to rayn's opinion of your alignment, and that oversensitivity has caused you to read something NAI (rayn's early prodding) as being suspicious.

Why does that make me more likely mafia? I think all players, regardless of alignment, are more sensitive to people's opinions of them.



Overdefensiveness and coming into the game immediately being worried about people's read on you is +mafia for sure.

I don't think all players play like that at all.

A big example of this is the way you assume I think you are mafia when before this post I had not said anything of the sort, just that I disliked your previous post (I mostly disliked the logic of it until this response you just made).

So the two assumptions you had made were:

1: I think you are mafia
2: The fact that you think that I think you are mafia, and Vivax's town read on you, are the most important things to you in the thread (ie you didn't respond to or quote anything else)

Both of these assumptions show a mindset that you are coming into the game with, and that mindset is something that I have often seen with scum players.


The whole tone and direction of this post is inconsistent with a town mentality. Typically, a town mindset is "I think you are scum, therefore I will convince others to vote for you." Jock here is taking a very deliberately argumentative tone in accusing Trefel. "I think you are mafia so I will argue with you."

In addition, I dislike his "read-dump" post:

On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.

Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.

Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.

I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.

Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.

Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:

haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.

Rels Nothing.

Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.

Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.

So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.


A lot of text but very little substance. He gives stances on players, then in the same breath, undermines his stances.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 14:17 GMT
#211
On April 05 2020 23:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 23:07 Hapahauli wrote:
Typically, a town mindset is "I think you are scum, therefore I will convince others to vote for you."

Let's say this is the case considering every player. How did you show this mindset in your first three posts of the game?


My posts have fundamentally different motivations than Jockey.

For one, I don't consider Shockey or Trefel scum-reads. I consider them lynchbait. There's something about their posting that triggers my "gut", and I'd rather try to engage with them early-game and/or think aloud in the thread a bit. Had the thread not kicked up while I was fast asleep, I probably would have continued trying to get them to talk a bit more and open up.

Jockey is instead directly scumreading Trefel.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 14:22 GMT
#213
On April 05 2020 23:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 23:07 Hapahauli wrote:
oh hey look Rayn is tunneling me! Sweet sweet old nostalgia.

can you show me even one game where this happened when we were both town?


It feels nostalgic man. You might be right, or I might be able to actually dig through my mafia history, but I'm enjoying my morning waaaay too much to do so. I'm playing for the feels man. The feels.

Regarding "hapa-meta" in general, I haven't played a game of forum mafia in... 3-4 years? I'm not an angry/bored law student with extra time on my hands to death-tunnel and grill people in this game no more.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 14:25 GMT
#215
On April 05 2020 23:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 23:17 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 05 2020 23:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On April 05 2020 23:07 Hapahauli wrote:
Typically, a town mindset is "I think you are scum, therefore I will convince others to vote for you."

Let's say this is the case considering every player. How did you show this mindset in your first three posts of the game?


My posts have fundamentally different motivations than Jockey.

For one, I don't consider Shockey or Trefel scum-reads. I consider them lynchbait. There's something about their posting that triggers my "gut", and I'd rather try to engage with them early-game and/or think aloud in the thread a bit. Had the thread not kicked up while I was fast asleep, I probably would have continued trying to get them to talk a bit more and open up.

Jockey is instead directly scumreading Trefel.

So why did you feel the need to say what you did in your first three posts then? Why aren't you scumreading Vivax now because he "took your bait" as you described it? Why don't you have anything to say about anything other than Jock even though the thread has kicked up?


Hapa wakes up.

Hapa sips coffee.

Hapa reads thead.

Hapa feels dat nostalgia.

Hapa has scum feelings 'bout Jockey.

Hapa posts feels 'bout Jockey.

Hapa sees that his old buddy 'Rayn is posting and asking him questions!

Hapa smiles.

Hapa temporarily pauses re-reading the thread to answer Rayn's questions.

Hapa answers Rayn's questions.

Hapa will then resume re-reading.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 15:47 GMT
#219
Thoughts after a deep read:

Vivax and Trefel come across as strongly town.

Vivax is adequately paranoid with a "dash" of dickish-ness.
On April 05 2020 18:54 Vivax wrote:
This is going to be a hard game, too much scummy stuff from too many people that can't all be mafia.


There is a certain "earnestness" about Trefel's posting that's very consistent with a town-Trefel mindset.
On April 05 2020 15:16 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 15:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:05 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 14:37 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Wow does everyone see something off with rayn?

I don't see it.


On April 05 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:29 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:24 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 12:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 10:22 Trfel wrote:
So I think the most suspicious person so far is raynpelikoneet.
Implies that I am mafia one post, implies that I am town later
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Is that saying you dont belong to the family?
On April 05 2020 03:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe he fell asleep again? It's also boring to tak with townies only so maybe we wait for the bloody cobbler to arrive.
Why did raynpelikoneet's view change? Even if he's just joking around, if he's town, I expect him to have some perception of my alignment; whatever it is, it can't really fit into both of these statements.


INITIATE DISLIKE PILE.
Care to explain why?

@Vivax, you too?

It looks like you are being very sensitive to rayn's opinion of your alignment, and that oversensitivity has caused you to read something NAI (rayn's early prodding) as being suspicious.

Why does that make me more likely mafia? I think all players, regardless of alignment, are more sensitive to people's opinions of them.



Overdefensiveness and coming into the game immediately being worried about people's read on you is +mafia for sure.

I don't think all players play like that at all.

A big example of this is the way you assume I think you are mafia when before this post I had not said anything of the sort, just that I disliked your previous post (I mostly disliked the logic of it until this response you just made).

So the two assumptions you had made were:

1: I think you are mafia
2: The fact that you think that I think you are mafia, and Vivax's town read on you, are the most important things to you in the thread (ie you didn't respond to or quote anything else)

Both of these assumptions show a mindset that you are coming into the game with, and that mindset is something that I have often seen with scum players.


Trfel from his last game seems new and curious. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.


I wasn't watching the last game.
He's very different already?


Depends on what your definition of different is. He was mafia last game hah. It’s hard to know, but he does seem similar. I’ll give him a second look.
Wait a second, I'm confused. By "new and curious," (see nested quote) are you characterizing my play this game, or are you characterizing my play last game/overall?
Side note, I really want to be suspicious of Jockmcplop, his wording and logic just feel so off, but I can't put my finger on it or articulate why So I'll let it drop. I reserve the right to be suspicious of him later though


The bolded especially. For a player like Trefel, the tone and transparency of this are spot-on with what a townie would be feeling in this particular spot. I think this is very hard to fake.



Jock remains a scumread. I've already posted my rationale, but I'll elaborate on it in the next post.

BloodyCobbler is also a scumread.

Regarding BC, the gist of it is that I have a hard time justifying how he arrived at his initial readlist.
On April 05 2020 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Leaning town
Shockeyy
Jockmcplop

Null
Chezinu
Rayn
Rels

Lean scum
Vivax

Scum
Trfel
Hapa


His scumreads are not inherently mafia-motivated. Very, very wrong, but not distinguishable between wrong-town and malevolent-mafia. BC is clearly reading and interpreting the thread on a "how much are you posting vs. what are you contributing" mindset.

Regarding Me:
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 05 2020 15:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
His posts scream posting for sake of posting. Asking questions is great, but only if followed by content. I dont like what ive seen thus far.

Interesting question though ;p


Regarding Trefel:
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 05 2020 19:03 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 18:53 Vivax wrote:
On April 05 2020 18:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 05 2020 18:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:07 Trfel wrote:
On phone and in bed, so not going to quote you Jockmcplop, hope that's okay.

I don't care about Vivax townreading me because I don't care too much about townreads in general (especially at this stage in the game) and I thought I knew why he was townreading me (since he later explained why, it turns out I was only partially correct, ah well).

I don't really know how to respond to the rest of your post so let me know if I missed something. But it seems that a key point is my "case's" first point on raynpelikoneet. It's not that he has an implied read that is suspicious, it's that the implied/joke read changes. Townies usually approach mafia from two perspectives: treat everyone as town until there is reason to suspect otherwise, or treat everyone as suspicious until they show otherwise. Raynpelikoneet's posts don't fit in either mindset.

That said, if I'm being honest, it's not a strong point at all and we all know this. I'm saying it's the most suspicious thing at that point in the game. Why'd I bring it up then, so people like you have something to talk about! I'd say it worked perfectly


hmm...

i quite like this logic even if I don't agree.


This is the post that made me change my mind. There are many many ways to attack this post in case Jock wants to do that, especially since i don't do any of what Trfel says here. Furthermore even if i did, it's no way of comparing that narrative to my early posting because i posted a joke and a bait to you. No reads lol.


TBH the post jock quoted here (especially the bolded part) is a reason i have a scum read on trfel atm.



Why does the bolded part make Trfel mafia?


What does it add to the thread? How is it helping us progress towards catching someone who is scum? What point does explaining how the game should be played, in relation to a player whos playstyle is a known quantity, to justify a hard stance read this early in the game?

Like, I havent played seriously for years, but what he posted is shit mafia have done for ages to try and blend in. Talking about how one should or shouldn't play makes you look like you are providing useful content when its instead just fluff.
If you take into consideration how hard he also was defending himself / reacting to general suspicion so early into the game gives me the read I have.


Regarding Vivax:
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 05 2020 18:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 18:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
BC i don't really think there is much chance of Vivax being mafia.


Its why I have him as a scum lean. Play I dislike / view as bad (not saying it is the wrong way to play just that i dont like it) makes me lower you down until you do something that stands out. I am merely waiting for it. He has been more active since my original read, but he still needs to give real content to the thread.



These three reads have a common theme: all of us are posting, but not "contributing content", trying to BS our way into inflating our post counts.

Given BC's emphasis, it is extremely hard for me to understand how town-BC turns around and slight town-reads Shockeyy, who up until this point in the game has posted over 10 times, yet only contributed a "benefit of the doubt" read on Trefel:

On April 05 2020 14:37 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 13:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Wow does everyone see something off with rayn?

I don't see it.


On April 05 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:29 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:24 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 12:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 10:22 Trfel wrote:
So I think the most suspicious person so far is raynpelikoneet.
Implies that I am mafia one post, implies that I am town later
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Is that saying you dont belong to the family?
On April 05 2020 03:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe he fell asleep again? It's also boring to tak with townies only so maybe we wait for the bloody cobbler to arrive.
Why did raynpelikoneet's view change? Even if he's just joking around, if he's town, I expect him to have some perception of my alignment; whatever it is, it can't really fit into both of these statements.


INITIATE DISLIKE PILE.
Care to explain why?

@Vivax, you too?

It looks like you are being very sensitive to rayn's opinion of your alignment, and that oversensitivity has caused you to read something NAI (rayn's early prodding) as being suspicious.

Why does that make me more likely mafia? I think all players, regardless of alignment, are more sensitive to people's opinions of them.



Overdefensiveness and coming into the game immediately being worried about people's read on you is +mafia for sure.

I don't think all players play like that at all.

A big example of this is the way you assume I think you are mafia when before this post I had not said anything of the sort, just that I disliked your previous post (I mostly disliked the logic of it until this response you just made).

So the two assumptions you had made were:

1: I think you are mafia
2: The fact that you think that I think you are mafia, and Vivax's town read on you, are the most important things to you in the thread (ie you didn't respond to or quote anything else)

Both of these assumptions show a mindset that you are coming into the game with, and that mindset is something that I have often seen with scum players.


Trfel from his last game seems new and curious. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.


The dissonance between what he is stating to be his emphasis in his scumreads vs. how he is reading Shockey shows his mafia mindset here.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 16:39 GMT
#220
@ Jock

On April 05 2020 22:42 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 22:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On April 05 2020 22:37 Jockmcplop wrote:
You can do better than that rayn lol.

Ask yourself this, what purpose does me voting for rels or hap serve town right now?

I really don't want to have explain every little thing.

I asked and i got a conclusion of "why would you vote for outside of your top 2 scumreads in a game where there is 2 scum?". Doesnt really matter who plays or who is playing or not.


That's an absolutely terrible conclusion to come to.

It would make sense ONLY if you believe that the only reason to vote for someone is to kill them.


"Pressure votes" are certainly valid. Why does town-Jock not want to pressure his top scumread ("mafia-hapa") with a vote? Why does town-Jock not want to pressure Rels? How did you arrive at Shockey vs. the other candidates?

On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.

Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.

Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.

I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.

Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.

Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:

haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.

Rels Nothing.

Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.

Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.

So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.


In addition, the "order of scumminess" itself leads to some extra questions about your vote on Shockey. Given this list, Rels is #2. It is literally impossible to tell anything about Rels' alignment given zero posting. Rels is null in the purest sense of it. This would imply that Shockeyy and Trefel are slightly above-null, but you chose to place a vote on Shockeyy anyway.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 19:41 GMT
#222
Are you calling him bad, or are you calling him mafia?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 19:56 GMT
#224
How and why are you slight-town-reading Shockeyy? Are you still?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 20:17 GMT
#226
On April 06 2020 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
The how is purely I didnt find his entrance as jarring mixed with people i had scum reads focusing him.

...


What does "jarring" mean to BloodyCobbler? Does he not meet your criteria of posting a bunch of stuff without saying anything?

"People I had scum reads focusing him" isn't an accurate depiction of the state of the thread at the time you made the read. I had not called Shockey scum. I do not see where Trefel called him mafia. Vivax made a one-off comment about him but has talked about virtually every player in the game.

Your whole Shockey read feels very bullshitty.

a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 05 2020 21:11 GMT
#227
My last post was a bit confusing. EBWOP.

...

What does "jarring" mean to you (BloodyCobbler)? Does Shockey not meet your criteria of posting a bunch of stuff without saying anything?

...
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 13:05 GMT
#268
Lurkedy-lurk-lurk.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 13:20 GMT
#270
Nope.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:08 GMT
#286
Confirmed skirting-by.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:13 GMT
#290
On April 07 2020 01:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 01:08 Hapahauli wrote:
Confirmed skirting-by.

can you at least try if you're not mafia?


Negative.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:36 GMT
#305
Rayn, are you mafia, or did you have a lobotomy since we last spoke?
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:43 GMT
#310
Get that policy lynch shit out of here ShoCkeyy. Me or Jock.

I have no preference personally.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:45 GMT
#314
On April 07 2020 01:44 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Of course you don't care since two townies is most likely to get lynched. Great job giving yourself up.


Oh my god. He's adorable.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:47 GMT
#315
Did ShoCkey just scumslip or am I tinfoiling?
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:50 GMT
#317
You just called me and Jock town. Why is that?
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:53 GMT
#323
On April 07 2020 01:44 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Of course you don't care since two townies is most likely to get lynched. Great job giving yourself up.


No no no no you don't get to run away from this.

How does any of this make any fucking sense.

Mafia-hapa is giving himself up because he and Jock are town?
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:56 GMT
#328
Oh oh carry on. We both misread each other.

I said I had a strong preference against lynching Rels, and that the lynch should be between myself and Jock.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 16:59 GMT
#333
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

I get it.

It's still dumb though.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:03 GMT
#340
Y'all are fucking idiots.

Except you Vivax. I love you.
Trefel, you 'aight too.

I'm tempted to lynch Rayn for fun before BC mafia.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:07 GMT
#343
Also, that was totally a 3-minute early hammer.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:08 GMT
#345
I am so happy that baby seals are still a thing here.

Nostalgia intensifies.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:11 GMT
#347
I mean if you're mafia, it was a good play.

But if you're town, you should blame yourself for making a meta case against someone who hasn't played forum mafia for fucking years. Like honestly.

Re-evaluate BloodyCobbler, Chez, and Shockey for me plz.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:13 GMT
#349
I also want a 10-page written apology.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:15 GMT
#351
You realize that Chez only did two things this game: hard-bus his scumbuddy and give us a wonderful steak recipe... right?
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:17 GMT
#354
Why so hard-on town for BloodyCobbler and Shockey?
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 17:18 GMT
#355
Like we lynch BC tomorrow. Period. With or without you. But you at least have to give me something to show me what's going on in that mind of yours.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 18:29 GMT
#364
Rayn, I love you bro.

I know I've been calling you an idiot for the last page and swinging my throbbing and large e-penis, but this pants-on-head tinfoil shit is what makes mafia great.
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 19:11 GMT
#368
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 19:34 GMT
#371
On April 07 2020 04:29 Trfel wrote:
@Hapahauli: Why didn't you care who got lynched between you and Jockmcplop?


From my perspective, either we were lynching my top scummread, or I could enjoy the sweet release of death and not have to pay attention to this thread, go to OBS QT heaven, and chat with some old buddy-spectators. Even now, Option 2 sounds fun!

I stopped playing for the loooongest time because the game tends to make me pretty moody and emotionally swingy. I crashed out (as town) of my last few games in this manner... just burnt out too bad. I was riding quite a low prior to the lynch. Now... I'm going to have some fun with this

a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 20:24 GMT
#376
Knowing that I am your towny-town-towniest-town, I have concrete knowledge that this was a town v. mafia lynch.

But all of you don't have that perspective, so bah. Before I begin talking about players, just a couple of observations:

  • This was a very polarized lynch (everyone on two candidates) forces people to take sides more concretely, and is therefore much more revealing of the motives of various players. Particularly in this case, this was a knife's edge 4v4 vote.
  • Jock played "scummily" (no offense) enough to where there was a large amount of heat on him from virtually every player in the game. In addition, he made some more "noobie" (again, no offense) scum mistakes that a more "sophisticated" player would have avoided. His "read list" is one of those types of plays, and it almost reads "too scummy to be scum":
    On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
    So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.

    Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.

    Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.

    I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.

    Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.

    Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:

    haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.

    Rels Nothing.

    Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.

    Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.

    So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.


    ...in short, I am reading his filter and taking his motivations and posts at a more transparent level, rather than expecting to see mindgames upon mindgames.





Chez, Trfel, and Vivax are in the do not lynch category. All of them had the opportunity to save their "teammate" but chose not to. If there is a bus play, we can explore that at LYLO. Mafia will likely night-kill from this pile (or me) regardless. I also am not sensing from Jock's filter that the scumteam was coordinated or sophisticated enough to pull off a hard-bus in this manner.

That leaves a lynch list of Shockey, Rayn, and BloodyCobbler. Two of them have to be town, and they all look really bad for a variety of reasons.



Rayn reads strongly town to me, both based on his filter and Jocks' filter. This is for three reasons:
1) Most players, and especially forum players, have some desire to save-face. Pride in a purest sense. Rayn set up for this lynch with reckless abandon with no attempt whatsoever to save face. His posting literally sets up to humiliate himself after the flip. Mafia Rayn would know my alignment, as well as Jock's alignment. He is a sophisticated, smart, and experienced player enough to evaluate that there was a pretty high chance of Jock dying.
2) I really like Rayn's posting right after the flip. Again, a basic desire to save face. The torment of "oh god maybe I was wrong , to *BZZZZT DOES NOT COMPUTE RAWEFWHFJ*, to full on 'jet fuel does not melt steel beams" is a very townie thought process for someone who was wrong, and who's pride will not allow him to admit that he is wrong.
3) Reading Jock's filter transparently, there is a very clear attempt by Jock to white-knight Rayn early in the game:
On April 05 2020 13:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Wow does everyone see something off with rayn?

I don't see it.


Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:29 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:24 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 12:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 10:22 Trfel wrote:
So I think the most suspicious person so far is raynpelikoneet.
Implies that I am mafia one post, implies that I am town later
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Is that saying you dont belong to the family?
On April 05 2020 03:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe he fell asleep again? It's also boring to tak with townies only so maybe we wait for the bloody cobbler to arrive.
Why did raynpelikoneet's view change? Even if he's just joking around, if he's town, I expect him to have some perception of my alignment; whatever it is, it can't really fit into both of these statements.


INITIATE DISLIKE PILE.
Care to explain why?

@Vivax, you too?

It looks like you are being very sensitive to rayn's opinion of your alignment, and that oversensitivity has caused you to read something NAI (rayn's early prodding) as being suspicious.

Why does that make me more likely mafia? I think all players, regardless of alignment, are more sensitive to people's opinions of them.



Overdefensiveness and coming into the game immediately being worried about people's read on you is +mafia for sure.

I don't think all players play like that at all.

A big example of this is the way you assume I think you are mafia when before this post I had not said anything of the sort, just that I disliked your previous post (I mostly disliked the logic of it until this response you just made).

So the two assumptions you had made were:

1: I think you are mafia
2: The fact that you think that I think you are mafia, and Vivax's town read on you, are the most important things to you in the thread (ie you didn't respond to or quote anything else)

Both of these assumptions show a mindset that you are coming into the game with, and that mindset is something that I have often seen with scum players.


This post screams of "Jock is taking a hard and safe stance because he knows that Rayn is town". Given Jock's later posts, again, I am taking this post at face value, rather than weighing it for mindgames.

BloodyCobbler and Shockeyy after I grab some foods.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 21:23 GMT
#378
BloodyCobber looks the worst to me for three reasons:
1) As I mentioned on Day 1, his Shockey read was pulled out of his ass, and is inconsistent with his approach to the game and general townie paranoia.
2) His behavior around Jock and the lynch, at face value, are very pro-Mafia.
3) His post activity surrounding Jock are again, at face value, consistent with an uncoordinated and unsophisticated mafia team.



The Read on Shockey

I'm just going to re-summarize my case for the sake of completeness, and hopefully give some people who were discounting my initial words some more clarity on why I felt as strongly as I did.

Playing as mafia is about creating an illusion of contribution. Contributing to discussion without actually contributing. Taking bold and hard stances without actually taking a risk. Covering your interactions with your partner just enough to avoid suspicion, while allowing you to coordinate with each other towards mafia objectives.

In addition, mafia also play with extra information. They know who's town. Whereas townies often display paranoia, since they are constantly uncertain, especially in the early game.

With these two points in mind, take a look at BC's read list.

On April 05 2020 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Leaning town
Shockeyy
Jockmcplop

Null
Chezinu
Rayn
Rels

Lean scum
Vivax

Scum
Trfel
Hapa


Firstly, considering what Shockey had done until this point in the game, a slight-town read is not consistent with a paranoid town mindset. Take a look at Shockey's filter and look from the beginning to post #117. There's very little in there. So much so that multiple players were making remarks that Shockey was just coasting along and not contributing much. BC later even acknowledges this and re-bumps Shockey down to null, likely in an attempt to save face (spoilerized below).

Instead, his first read list is consistent with a mafia-mindset who knows that Shockey is town, and is naturally not-all-that-suspicious.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 06 2020 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
The how is purely I didnt find his entrance as jarring mixed with people i had scum reads focusing him.

ATM id drop him down to Rels / Chez territory of null read.

Here I will update my lists for you

Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Lean Town
Rayn
Vivax

Null
Rels
Shockeyy
Chezinu

Lean scum
Jock
trfel

Scum
Hapa



There is a world (with how you are currently being active) where I could see my read on you being wrong. So please keep up the posting =)


Secondly, and as explained before, the whole rationale behind the read is contrived bullshit. For that, we need to look at the "story" that BloodyCobbler is trying to tell about his town play. BloodyCobber is telling the story that he is reading player filters for the content that they are posting. He considers "substanceless" posting indicative of a mafia tell. Examples are abound:

Regarding his scumread on me (Hapa):
On April 05 2020 15:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
His posts scream posting for sake of posting. Asking questions is great, but only if followed by content. I dont like what ive seen thus far.

Interesting question though ;p


On Trefel:
On April 05 2020 19:03 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 18:53 Vivax wrote:
On April 05 2020 18:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 05 2020 18:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:07 Trfel wrote:
On phone and in bed, so not going to quote you Jockmcplop, hope that's okay.

I don't care about Vivax townreading me because I don't care too much about townreads in general (especially at this stage in the game) and I thought I knew why he was townreading me (since he later explained why, it turns out I was only partially correct, ah well).

I don't really know how to respond to the rest of your post so let me know if I missed something. But it seems that a key point is my "case's" first point on raynpelikoneet. It's not that he has an implied read that is suspicious, it's that the implied/joke read changes. Townies usually approach mafia from two perspectives: treat everyone as town until there is reason to suspect otherwise, or treat everyone as suspicious until they show otherwise. Raynpelikoneet's posts don't fit in either mindset.

That said, if I'm being honest, it's not a strong point at all and we all know this. I'm saying it's the most suspicious thing at that point in the game. Why'd I bring it up then, so people like you have something to talk about! I'd say it worked perfectly


hmm...

i quite like this logic even if I don't agree.


This is the post that made me change my mind. There are many many ways to attack this post in case Jock wants to do that, especially since i don't do any of what Trfel says here. Furthermore even if i did, it's no way of comparing that narrative to my early posting because i posted a joke and a bait to you. No reads lol.


TBH the post jock quoted here (especially the bolded part) is a reason i have a scum read on trfel atm.



Why does the bolded part make Trfel mafia?


What does it add to the thread? How is it helping us progress towards catching someone who is scum? What point does explaining how the game should be played, in relation to a player whos playstyle is a known quantity, to justify a hard stance read this early in the game?

Like, I havent played seriously for years, but what he posted is shit mafia have done for ages to try and blend in. Talking about how one should or shouldn't play makes you look like you are providing useful content when its instead just fluff.
If you take into consideration how hard he also was defending himself / reacting to general suspicion so early into the game gives me the read I have.


His stuff on Vivax is especially damning:
On April 05 2020 18:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 18:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
BC i don't really think there is much chance of Vivax being mafia.


Its why I have him as a scum lean. Play I dislike / view as bad (not saying it is the wrong way to play just that i dont like it) makes me lower you down until you do something that stands out. I am merely waiting for it. He has been more active since my original read, but he still needs to give real content to the thread.


... this post on vivax is suggestive that his "method" of early-game tells is just to look for people who seem "contentless" and re-evaluate them as the game goes on. He is willing to cast suspicion on play that he "dislike[s] / view[s] as bad" early on.


Given this mentality of reading for "substanceless posting", it is then inconceivable from a town-BC perspective that he would read Shockey's filter and come out with slightly town. Again, see Shockeyy's filter to post #117:

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?user=ShoCkeyy

There is NO. FUCKING. WAY. That he could genuinely read Shockey as having any substance. Therefore his read is bullshit. Mafia attempting to contribute bullshit reads, and thereby not contributing. Playing with extra information, and therefore knowing that Shockey is town rather than being suspicious of him.



His Behavior around the Lynch

Mafia would ideally like to transparently lynch townies. But since there's a desire to save face (and distance) in the event of a wrong lynch, a transparent mafia player will cast just enough suspicion on his mafia buddy to distance. BloodyCobbler's actions look like a very transparent attempt to distance, and then fuck-off from the thread and cross his fingers, hoping town lynches wrong.

BloodyCobbler was active early, is inactive for a period, and then re-enters the thread a bit past the 24 hour mark, right after I call him and Jock mafia. Jock had already made a series of "sketchy" posts, which BC identifies. Note the reaction:

On April 06 2020 04:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Yo Jock, wtf was were those last like 2-3 posts by you.

What happened in your brain that could possibly lead your mind into doing the shit you just did.


On April 06 2020 04:41 Hapahauli wrote:
Are you calling him bad, or are you calling him mafia?

On April 06 2020 04:42 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Yes

On April 06 2020 04:56 Hapahauli wrote:
How and why are you slight-town-reading Shockeyy? Are you still?

On April 06 2020 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
The how is purely I didnt find his entrance as jarring mixed with people i had scum reads focusing him.

ATM id drop him down to Rels / Chez territory of null read.

Here I will update my lists for you

Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Lean Town
Rayn
Vivax

Null
Rels
Shockeyy
Chezinu

Lean scum
Jock
trfel

Scum
Hapa



There is a world (with how you are currently being active) where I could see my read on you being wrong. So please keep up the posting =)


This is a very prototypical mafia way of saving face. His partner fucked up. Fucked up so bad that BC had to change his read on him. BC takes what is seemingly a strong stance with a ton of bravado in post #1 of this series, but when you unpack it, it is actually pretty weak. Jock only goes down to "lean scum", justifies his vote on me (the other guy on the lynch ticket), then proceeds to fuck off from the thread until past the lynch deadline.

Transparent. Mafia. Trying to distance himself from Jock. Trying to appear like he's taking a hard stance on Jock, but not actually doing anything brave.



Interactions with Jock

I wont beleaguer the point (because this post is long-winded as fuck), but the interactions between BC and Jock are noteworthy, in that they are very typical mafia interactions. They are chatty and interact without really showing any suspicion, anger, or confrontation with each other. BC in particular seemed interested in throwing Jock some softballs.

On April 05 2020 13:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Yo jock. You read things clearly. Anything good catch your eye? yes no maybe so?


In response to Jock white-knighting BC:
On April 05 2020 14:05 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I see something "off" but as of right now not alignment indicative. I just need to see more to swing either way.

Trfel / hap are where my eyes are focused atm


On April 05 2020 14:40 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 14:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 14:05 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I see something "off" but as of right now not alignment indicative. I just need to see more to swing either way.

Trfel / hap are where my eyes are focused atm


What do you think of Shockeyy's entrance? His tone seems weird to me. I don't know what that means for shockeyy though tbh.


havent played with him in ages tbh.

my memory from the ol days aint what it used to be. I want more from him atm but thats about it.


On April 05 2020 18:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 17:35 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

Lean scum
Vivax



I am confused.


Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 14:43 Vivax wrote:
Shockeyy do you have any scumreads or leads?
Feels like you are just coexisting.

Jock I really really think Trfel is town here. He has a mind of his own if I had to name the reason, instead of just being a void content factory.


That is basically the easiest thing hes posted that I went "wtf" on. Also, he didnt answer a question I posted a few pages ago and has been "active' while not actively pushing much. Outside of basically Trfe and rayn, Vivax has no real reads/leanings on peoples alignment. Or at least ones hes posted. Meanwhile he called someone out for almost identical behaviour

On April 05 2020 18:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 18:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 15:07 Trfel wrote:
On phone and in bed, so not going to quote you Jockmcplop, hope that's okay.

I don't care about Vivax townreading me because I don't care too much about townreads in general (especially at this stage in the game) and I thought I knew why he was townreading me (since he later explained why, it turns out I was only partially correct, ah well).

I don't really know how to respond to the rest of your post so let me know if I missed something. But it seems that a key point is my "case's" first point on raynpelikoneet. It's not that he has an implied read that is suspicious, it's that the implied/joke read changes. Townies usually approach mafia from two perspectives: treat everyone as town until there is reason to suspect otherwise, or treat everyone as suspicious until they show otherwise. Raynpelikoneet's posts don't fit in either mindset.

That said, if I'm being honest, it's not a strong point at all and we all know this. I'm saying it's the most suspicious thing at that point in the game. Why'd I bring it up then, so people like you have something to talk about! I'd say it worked perfectly


hmm...

i quite like this logic even if I don't agree.


This is the post that made me change my mind. There are many many ways to attack this post in case Jock wants to do that, especially since i don't do any of what Trfel says here. Furthermore even if i did, it's no way of comparing that narrative to my early posting because i posted a joke and a bait to you. No reads lol.


TBH the post jock quoted here (especially the bolded part) is a reason i have a scum read on trfel atm.



He's very chatty, nice, and friendly to Jock, and rewards him with a slight town read on his read list. What's importat is what is missing: There's no suspicion, attempt to push Jock on any of his opinions, etc. They're very chatty and friendly. This reads a lot like BC is trying to help Jock and ease him into the game.



Jock's reads on BC

Its worth a separate section to point out just how bullshitty Jock's end of day read on BC is:

On April 06 2020 23:03 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Leaning town
Shockeyy
Jockmcplop

Null
Chezinu
Rayn
Rels

Lean scum
Vivax

Scum
Trfel
Hapa


Show nested quote +
On April 06 2020 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
The how is purely I didnt find his entrance as jarring mixed with people i had scum reads focusing him.

ATM id drop him down to Rels / Chez territory of null read.

Here I will update my lists for you

Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Lean Town
Rayn
Vivax

Null
Rels
Shockeyy
Chezinu

Lean scum
Jock
trfel

Scum
Hapa



There is a world (with how you are currently being active) where I could see my read on you being wrong. So please keep up the posting =)


I don't like the way he jumped on the jock train with everyone else but I can understand it if he sees my posts as objectively bad. I don't get why though.

He's moved you up to being a town read which is confusing. I don't see how your play has changed since he was leaning scum on you. Is he just following other people's reads?

The other changes seem natural to me, shockeyy down to null and rayn up to town lean.

Vivax, if you say there's an algorithmic way of thinking about mafia and you get where BC is coming from with that, would you say he is consistent about through day 1 so far? Surely that's a way we can get a read on him, but I'm not familiar with the idea.


On April 06 2020 23:33 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2020 23:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:
He said Vivax wasn't explaining his reads until he did, and his position changed on the list after that.

Yeah that checks out.

BC still a townread for me then.



It's this super wishy-washy, awful, "say things without saying anything" post that ultimately concludes that BC is town. Again, much more consistent with mafia trying to bullshit-distance from a buddy vs. mafia white-knighting or hard reading someone they know is town.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 21:29 GMT
#380
With that... pretty convinced that BC is our last guy.

I don't think me listing a bunch of reasons to find Shockey suspicious would be at all productive to the town's purpose right now.

@Rayn I put my try-hard pants on just for you. Take a step back from the game. Come back in a few hours, and then read Jocks' filter. Read at how bad and scummy he was, and then try to square that away with a sophisticated all-out hard bus play.

Jock was just a transparent scummy dude. And he has transparent scummy actions with BC, who is his scummy partner scummer.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 21:46 GMT
#383
Trfel and Shockey

Please give me your thoughts on my BC case on the bottom of Page 19. Where is it strong, where is it weak, and is it overall compelling enough to move BC as #1 on the scum list.

This hasn't been too active of a game, so the town steamroller should start tonight.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 21:48 GMT
#385
On April 07 2020 06:33 Trfel wrote:
BloodyC0bbler, I'm really confused as to why that makes Hapahauli mafia. If Hapahauli is mafia and doing a double-bus with Jockmcplop, why would he so openly say he didn't care who was lynched instead of continuing to push Jockmcplop? That seems like a really stupid play to me, basically anyone would avoid doing that as mafia. It's one thing if it merely seemed like he didn't care, but openly saying it has no mafia motivation/doesn't fit a mafia mindset.

Same with Hapahauli saying he is tempted to lynch a townread before a scumread. He's obviously not actually going to do that, so why does him saying that make him mafia?


BC is just trying to bullshit his way into a case.

Just be aware that he is an experienced enough player to tell you what you want to hear. That is why he dodged suspicion on Day 1 from most of the playerbase.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 22:07 GMT
#391
Tomorrow, there will be 6 players alive. There is a high chance that Rayn is too tunneled to vote anyone but me, and BC will obviously vote me for his nefarious purposes.

To be clear, my plan tomorrow is to vote for myself, and not to move my vote unless everyone else consolidates on BC. If everyone does not consolidate on BC, the Plurality mechanic will lead to my unstoppable lynch.

Tomorrow is between BC and myself. No one else.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 22:08 GMT
#392
BC, off topic (and out of my steamroller persona), but have we actually played a game before? I don't remember any.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 22:18 GMT
#393
Shockey, where are you? I know you're around.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 22:36 GMT
#395
I understand that you're re-reading the thread, there's a fair amount of new and present content to go on. What do you make of Rayn and BC?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 23:25 GMT
#402
I'm here and waiting yo. How goes your readthrough?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 06 2020 23:35 GMT
#404
What are you stuck on?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 00:11 GMT
#409
On April 07 2020 08:55 ShoCkeyy wrote:
It deals with Chezinu, and how he positions himself to be the first to kill Jock, then I ran into this post by Trfel starting to question Chez as well.

Show nested quote +
On April 06 2020 15:30 Trfel wrote:
Actually though, what if it is Chezinu?

When he's town I'm used to him posting some relevant information/reads. Obviously in his own Chezinu way, but they are there. This game he is voting for (iirc) Jockmcplop, but I couldn't understand why, does anyone know why?

Chezinu this game just feels very different from previous games where he's been town. Still awesome and funny, but different. I'll try and read a previous Chezinu mafia game or two.


Show nested quote +
On April 06 2020 15:57 Trfel wrote:
The most recent Chezinu mafia game I could find was six years old. And in that game he was more focused on providing reads, not less. So there goes that idea.


It could also mean we don't know how his most recent mafia play can be. He's posted videos of himself, I went through them, but I don't know if anybody else did. In the day post, it's description sounds like his character likes killing people. I feel like since Rayn and Chez have some kind of alignment instantly, it's like Rayn won't suspect Chez and it'll let him slide by.

Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 02:15 Hapahauli wrote:
You realize that Chez only did two things this game: hard-bus his scumbuddy and give us a wonderful steak recipe... right?


Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why?


I don't think anyone truly has a grasp on how Chez plays.

I personally feel it is difficult to entertain Chez's alignment until some of the more plausible scummers are dead. Occam's razor works for now - the most plausible explanation is that he's town, regardless of how random the vote is.

Also, I don't quite get this:
Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why?


Where did I say I didn't want to discuss Chez? In my long list-o-reads, I state something along the lines of I am not looking at Chez, because I am discounting the chance of "sophisticated" mafia plays (i.e. hard bus plays) due to how Jock was posting.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 00:13 GMT
#410
On April 07 2020 09:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Also Hap. Remove the fact we both think eachother are red.

Is it same to state that we both have Shockeyy as possible red?

Is it also safe to say we both currently list Vivax and Trfel as town reads?

I know you have Rayn listed as scum over Chez. Any particular reason you think chez is safe from general suspicion at this moment in time?


Shockey is certainly a plausible red.

Vivax and Trfel are hard town reads, and they have been since Day 1.

Rayn is a stronger town read than Chez. My "reads" post is not necessarily in order. Rather, it categorizes players I would not lynch, vs. players I would consider lynching.

Fact is though, I'm not considering lynching anyone other than you tomorrow.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 00:18 GMT
#412
On April 07 2020 09:15 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 09:11 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 07 2020 08:55 ShoCkeyy wrote:
It deals with Chezinu, and how he positions himself to be the first to kill Jock, then I ran into this post by Trfel starting to question Chez as well.

On April 06 2020 15:30 Trfel wrote:
Actually though, what if it is Chezinu?

When he's town I'm used to him posting some relevant information/reads. Obviously in his own Chezinu way, but they are there. This game he is voting for (iirc) Jockmcplop, but I couldn't understand why, does anyone know why?

Chezinu this game just feels very different from previous games where he's been town. Still awesome and funny, but different. I'll try and read a previous Chezinu mafia game or two.


On April 06 2020 15:57 Trfel wrote:
The most recent Chezinu mafia game I could find was six years old. And in that game he was more focused on providing reads, not less. So there goes that idea.


It could also mean we don't know how his most recent mafia play can be. He's posted videos of himself, I went through them, but I don't know if anybody else did. In the day post, it's description sounds like his character likes killing people. I feel like since Rayn and Chez have some kind of alignment instantly, it's like Rayn won't suspect Chez and it'll let him slide by.

On April 07 2020 02:15 Hapahauli wrote:
You realize that Chez only did two things this game: hard-bus his scumbuddy and give us a wonderful steak recipe... right?


Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why?


I don't think anyone truly has a grasp on how Chez plays.

I personally feel it is difficult to entertain Chez's alignment until some of the more plausible scummers are dead. Occam's razor works for now - the most plausible explanation is that he's town, regardless of how random the vote is.

Also, I don't quite get this:
Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why?


Where did I say I didn't want to discuss Chez? In my long list-o-reads, I state something along the lines of I am not looking at Chez, because I am discounting the chance of "sophisticated" mafia plays (i.e. hard bus plays) due to how Jock was posting.


Is that not what you meant with the line here?

Show nested quote +
Chez, Trfel, and Vivax are in the do not lynch category. All of them had the opportunity to save their "teammate" but chose not to. If there is a bus play, we can explore that at LYLO.


K now I gotta go, be back in like an hour at least.


Ah yes. Same answer. I am not considering Chez until we have explored more plausible options. Doing so would be purely tinfoil on a player known for "randomness" and relative unreadability.

Occam's razor.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 00:21 GMT
#414
On April 07 2020 09:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 09:13 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 07 2020 09:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Also Hap. Remove the fact we both think eachother are red.

Is it same to state that we both have Shockeyy as possible red?

Is it also safe to say we both currently list Vivax and Trfel as town reads?

I know you have Rayn listed as scum over Chez. Any particular reason you think chez is safe from general suspicion at this moment in time?


Shockey is certainly a plausible red.

Vivax and Trfel are hard town reads, and they have been since Day 1.

Rayn is a stronger town read than Chez. My "reads" post is not necessarily in order. Rather, it categorizes players I would not lynch, vs. players I would consider lynching.

Fact is though, I'm not considering lynching anyone other than you tomorrow.


Not saying you have to consider it tomorrow. I am more operating from the. "hey if we are both town tunneling the fuck out of eachother, lets see what we can do to make it easier to solve after the fact"

Cause straight up. I die I flip green, likely hood is town then lynches you. If you get lynched over me and flip green then I am deff lynched the day after. Pretty sure mathematically the Mafia wins at that point.


I'm not worried about my ability to spew town at LYLO, if that's what you're getting at. Nor am I worried about my ability to railroad this lynch against you.

I'm wiling to entertain the conversation though. Why are Shockey and/or Chez more likely to flip scum than you?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 00:32 GMT
#421
On April 07 2020 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Shockeyy while being pressured is more answering questions while consistently reading to catch up. He has played in 20+ people games where by this point in time we'd have 200+ pages of content. He has experience in reading / being caught up in those games. So if you post 3-5 times in a 21 page game where the first 2ish pages are pregame / signups. So a 18-19 page game, 20 posts a page where most aren't very long catching up should be well, easy. Filter diving makes it easier. Given that to get anything of substance requires constantly pushing him to respond to things, makes me see scum motivations.

Not saying he hasn't had migraines but I also remember people faking moving / random other life stuff as scum to avoid posting in game.

Chez is honestly a mixture of 2 things. Last few games ive played with him, as town, hes at least helpful in his flavour posting. You can clearly see what he wants. So far this game flavour wise, the only thing he has wanted to do was kill Andrezza. To drop a vote (never change said vote) and manage to make that specific person die is pretty lucky no?
I may have bias because his steak cooking method made me die inside.


Are you entertaining anyone else in the game as plausible mafia, or just those two?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 00:41 GMT
#423
1)In some insano world, you lynch me, then "town-BC" is captain of the ship heading into LYLO. You have one lynch. Who is more likely to flip mafia; Chez or Shockey?

2)Please link me games re: Chez meta that you are referencing.

3)How do you interpret this sequence by Jock:

On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.

Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.

Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.

I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.

Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.

Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:

haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.

Rels Nothing.

Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.

Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.

So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.


On April 05 2020 22:19 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 22:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe i am just bad but i don't really understand you right now because you seem to be saying Trfel is not mafia but your vote is still on him?


I'm not saying that.

That one or two sentences he posted made me think town, but because of his tone and the way interacting with him felt to me he's a scumlean. Its not that hard to understand tbh and I said the same thing a few posts up.

My vote was only still on trfel because i hadn't moved it yet.


##unvote
##vote: shockeyy
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 01:00 GMT
#426
On April 07 2020 09:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 09:41 Hapahauli wrote:
1)In some insano world, you lynch me, then "town-BC" is captain of the ship heading into LYLO. You have one lynch. Who is more likely to flip mafia; Chez or Shockey?

2)Please link me games re: Chez meta that you are referencing.

3)How do you interpret this sequence by Jock:

On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.

Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.

Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.

I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.

Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.

Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:

haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.

Rels Nothing.

Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.

Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.

So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.


On April 05 2020 22:19 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 22:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe i am just bad but i don't really understand you right now because you seem to be saying Trfel is not mafia but your vote is still on him?


I'm not saying that.

That one or two sentences he posted made me think town, but because of his tone and the way interacting with him felt to me he's a scumlean. Its not that hard to understand tbh and I said the same thing a few posts up.

My vote was only still on trfel because i hadn't moved it yet.


##unvote
##vote: shockeyy


as for your 1) At the moment I would say shockeyy. I will go dig up a game of chez being helpful some point in a few hours. Might take me a bit to find a good example.

3) TBH those posts are the biggest reason I said he could be mafia/bad. In no world does it make sense to say my top scumread is x then not vote for them. His list clearly said lynch in order of Hapa, Rels, Shockeyy, Trfel. Given that shockeyy didnt say anything to move himself up that list / mixed with the fact he included someone who hadn't posted anything at all as scummier than 2 players is well, a tell imo.




2) One town game of Chez being helpful as town does not make a meta tell. You know this.

3) I wasn't clear in my question. Jock is dead, and it doesn't matter what your read on him was, or how you justified it for that matter. Knowing that he is mafia, what can we learn from that post about other players in this game?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 01:09 GMT
#428
Still waiting for the results of your read-through Shockey...
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 01:44 GMT
#432
I have read all of your posts Shock.

Ultimately your alignment is a very important piece of that puzzle, and I'm gonna give you a hard time because I want to squeeze those juicy reads out of you.

So three questions for starters so we can begin to consolidate your opinions and feels:
1) Who is in your "do not lynch" bucket?
2) Who is in your "lynch" bucket?
3) Of Bucket #2, who is your top candidate and why? What makes them worse than other candidates?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 02:01 GMT
#436
On April 07 2020 10:57 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 10:44 Hapahauli wrote:
I have read all of your posts Shock.

Ultimately your alignment is a very important piece of that puzzle, and I'm gonna give you a hard time because I want to squeeze those juicy reads out of you.

So three questions for starters so we can begin to consolidate your opinions and feels:
1) Who is in your "do not lynch" bucket?
2) Who is in your "lynch" bucket?
3) Of Bucket #2, who is your top candidate and why? What makes them worse than other candidates?



1) rayn, hap, trfel
2) bloodycobbler, chezinu
3) havent decided, depends on night kill sadly.


What bucket is Vivax in?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 02:01 GMT
#437
On April 07 2020 10:36 Trfel wrote:
I'm dumb, that's what you guys were talking about with the whole jarring thing. But on my phone I can't seem to find the conversation.


The "jarring" conversation between me and BC starts at post #224.

Just thinking out loud, which given the low number of posts in the thread is fine I believe.

Curious if anyone knows when Jockmcplop realized he was going to be lynched. I want to look at Jockmcplop's filter to try and get any hints to if there was an intentional bus play or not.


Looking at the thread, "19 hours ago" (according to TL timestamps) is when the 4th vote goes on Jock. There's no other voting activity on Jock, and he is lynched exactly on those votes. Jock and Shock (heheh) do vote for me subsequently.

Jock begins his entrance "17 hours ago", or post #241. He's reasonably active (and seemingly trying to live) until #276/#278, which are his last posts (town-reading BC):

On April 06 2020 23:03 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Leaning town
Shockeyy
Jockmcplop

Null
Chezinu
Rayn
Rels

Lean scum
Vivax

Scum
Trfel
Hapa


Show nested quote +
On April 06 2020 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
The how is purely I didnt find his entrance as jarring mixed with people i had scum reads focusing him.

ATM id drop him down to Rels / Chez territory of null read.

Here I will update my lists for you

Town
Bloodyc0bbler

Lean Town
Rayn
Vivax

Null
Rels
Shockeyy
Chezinu

Lean scum
Jock
trfel

Scum
Hapa



There is a world (with how you are currently being active) where I could see my read on you being wrong. So please keep up the posting =)


I don't like the way he jumped on the jock train with everyone else but I can understand it if he sees my posts as objectively bad. I don't get why though.

He's moved you up to being a town read which is confusing. I don't see how your play has changed since he was leaning scum on you. Is he just following other people's reads?

The other changes seem natural to me, shockeyy down to null and rayn up to town lean.

Vivax, if you say there's an algorithmic way of thinking about mafia and you get where BC is coming from with that, would you say he is consistent about through day 1 so far? Surely that's a way we can get a read on him, but I'm not familiar with the idea.


On April 06 2020 23:33 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2020 23:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:
He said Vivax wasn't explaining his reads until he did, and his position changed on the list after that.

Yeah that checks out.

BC still a townread for me then.




He does have one last post at #334, but he has very obviously given up by then:
On April 07 2020 01:59 Jockmcplop wrote:
trfel help


So there's roughly a 2.5 hour gap between his last "serious" post (read on BC) and the end of the game. A gap where I assume he had given up.

Given the relative lack of activity in the voting thread (suspicion pretty much immediately consolidating on Jock), I don't see much to gleam from this.

I'll take a look at the voting on Jock earlier in Day 1, but everyone seemed to go on him pretty early and hard from memory.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 02:13 GMT
#439
On the votes on Jock in general:

Chez votes really early on Jock. There's no suspicion of Jock in the thread that I could find at the time of this vote.

On April 05 2020 17:22 Chezinu wrote:
##vote Jockmcplop

Consequences


Vivax shortly thereafter articulates the first suspicion against Jock :

On April 05 2020 17:40 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 17:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like.... why is he mafia? I don't understand?


He's just posting along and not poking anywhere. Though I'm doubting the read a little because he just seems super carefree.

Warming up for a Jock vote instead on a reread, tell me what you think?

I think him going after Trfel here feels a bit like he was trying to echo some sentiment (from BC but also me at the start) so it seems kind of opportunistic and he's way too focused on just talking it out with him instead of explaining what makes Trfel scum besides the post where he said he was overdefensive.


A couple of hours later, Jock fucks up and posts his "read list into Shockey Vote", which draws some definite negative attention to it. Rayn points it out in his post:

On April 05 2020 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:

Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:

haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.

Rels Nothing.

Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.

Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.

So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.

into
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 22:19 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 22:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe i am just bad but i don't really understand you right now because you seem to be saying Trfel is not mafia but your vote is still on him?


I'm not saying that.

That one or two sentences he posted made me think town, but because of his tone and the way interacting with him felt to me he's a scumlean. Its not that hard to understand tbh and I said the same thing a few posts up.

My vote was only still on trfel because i hadn't moved it yet.


##unvote
##vote: shockeyy

I gotta nap on it, but it looks like a thing to lynch for sure.


My vote, Vivax's vote, and Trefel's vote follow shortly thereafter.



The interesting tidbitds are:
1) Good lord Chez voted early. I find it pretty mind-melting to think that his "mafia-plan" was just to fuck it, insta-bus and peace out on his buddy. It's not like any of us would really blink if Chez switched his vote at any time later in the day.
2) The more I read Jock's "readlist into Shockey vote", the more it feels like an attempt to go after an easy lynchbait target vs. some malevolent attempt to bus his "teammate".
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 02:14 GMT
#441
Like, I get that Chez is random, but I don't think he's cruel or mean enough to his scum teammates to vote him and abandon him.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 02:16 GMT
#442
Damn... mafia-Chez would be such a dick to have done that. He is random, but I do think he is nice at heart, hence the light humor he intersperses in our various game on the site.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 02:23 GMT
#445
On April 07 2020 11:21 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 11:01 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 07 2020 10:57 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 07 2020 10:44 Hapahauli wrote:
I have read all of your posts Shock.

Ultimately your alignment is a very important piece of that puzzle, and I'm gonna give you a hard time because I want to squeeze those juicy reads out of you.

So three questions for starters so we can begin to consolidate your opinions and feels:
1) Who is in your "do not lynch" bucket?
2) Who is in your "lynch" bucket?
3) Of Bucket #2, who is your top candidate and why? What makes them worse than other candidates?



1) rayn, hap, trfel
2) bloodycobbler, chezinu
3) havent decided, depends on night kill sadly.


What bucket is Vivax in?


It relates to third, I want to town lean him. But then again, one of the last ones to jump on the jock train, and decided to disappear right after the d1 post. Then he also says he doesn't mind killing a town. I'm on the fence.


To Devil's Advocate on your Vivax read, wouldn't him being last make him more townie?

In your analysis, this is a Hapa vs. Jock lynch. Vivax would have come in and essentially secured the lynch of his "scumbuddy" over a townie. Do you consider this a likely scenario for a mafia-Vivax? If so, why?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 02:47 GMT
#448
I stand corrected on Vivax - he was 3rd of the 4 people on the Wagon (Trfel being last).

That being said, you list three "reasons" to be skeptical of your town read:
1) He was "one of the last" on the Wagon.
2) He "dissappeared" after the D1 post
3) He "doesn't mind killing a town."

I still don't quite understand how 1 and 2 are mafia tells. Can you point out to me where he says 3?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 03:27 GMT
#452
Bedtime gents. Night y’all.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 13:59 GMT
#462
You're the best
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 14:00 GMT
#463
In all seriousness, I hammed it up a bit too hard last night. Sorry... I can be a cocky bastard.

a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 14:02 GMT
#466
I'm meta-diving Shockey. Care to assist?

Emergency Quarantine (2020) – Parity Cop
Newbie Student XXX (2019) – VT
Chill Hop Mafia (2018) – Mafia Roleblocker
- https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/THdZcKQ8BxbWy
Heroes of the Storm Mafia (2017) – VT
Resistance (2015) - VT
- Odd mechanic
Starfox 64 Mini Mafia (2015) – VT
- 5 player (1 mafia) game
II Cannons Mini Mafia – VT
- Odd mechanic
Mafia in the Himalayas – Mafia Framer
- https://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/3rcKficCDHd
Witchraft III Mini Mafia – VT
- Odd mechanic
Generic Boring Mafia - Mafia
- https://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/cRwrGTFRP7t
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 14:11 GMT
#468
From what perspective?

- That you are afraid of getting shot and or informing mafia on their Night Kill?

- That you feel burnt out?

- That you feel vindictive against me for the dickish lack of D1 effort I put into the game?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 14:12 GMT
#469
I mean, try-hard hapa always supports more discussion. I don't think there are downsides to posting what you think, especially since this is an all VT game (no blue snipes), and this isn't exactly the most active game in the world.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 14:13 GMT
#471
From whatever perspective, I think you should post. How I argue depends on the lens through which you look at this game.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:03 GMT
#476
I'm here! I'm here! Had a client call.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:07 GMT
#477
Mafia-wise, I think we're pretty on the same page. I'm checking and double checking my suspicions, but it always comes back to BC.

Chez we agree on.

Vivax we agree on.

Shockey is certainly plausible, but I still find myself highly prefering BC. There are any number of ways to "make him look bad". He's super wishy-washy around the deadline, has a lot of difficulty producing hard reads, "Shock and Jock" both is an awesome scum-team name and their play is consistent with an uncoordinated scum-team... etc. But there are also some big points in his favor:
1) I've looked through his scum games, and he doesn't seem to have any problem developing hard reads on people. In fact, they are more prevalent throughout his games as mafia.
2) Jock's read on Shock appears much more scum-tunneling-town than scum-bussing-scum.
3) I gave Shock a lot of rope to develop a hard read, and he stayed very wishy-washy. I interpret this as genuine town confusion, and I'd expect mafia to take the "easy" way out and develop a hard read on BC.

I do need to look at Trfel, but on play alone, he has been so damn earnest with some of his posting.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:14 GMT
#478
On April 07 2020 23:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Fine. First of all i mostly wanted to play with you so i am annoyed at what you did during the eod1, regardless the out outcome. So fuck you for that.

I tend to play differently than other people. I dont like games where you lynch the low volume posters and most likely win. That translates towards me trying to figure out the "high-profile" mafia players over random lurk-shit-scum, if you know what i mean. That additionally translates to me being super bad and going ham on people like Palmar when they play a low-post-count play (which i am not used to that much) but are right. That's also why i don't play anymore, i can't justify me playing and trying to put shit together just to find out we lost because 20 people didnt play and 6 of those we lynched were townies. Idk if you can see my pov but yeah, that's it.

Talking about people who did bad shit without reason.

I think your case on BC is good, the way he handles shockeyy in comparison to his other scumreads that "talked but didn't contribute anything towards the game". I might have missed your point on D1 or you might have not made it clear enough, but i don't care. It's a good case and BC is probably mafia and i am just super bad this game.

If it is not BC it's gonna be shockeyy, i genuinely find it "why the fuck would mafia do that????" kind of thing when he needed to justify his vote on you over Jock, but if we talk about things that make no sense then yeah that makes no fucking sense at all. Why would anyone ever NOT want to vote for their scumread over another person if the other person is not that scummy?

Third is Trfel. There are things that are just plain out bad. No matter how his case on me was, it was based on "yo rayn isn't playing like this in situation X but i dont know how rayn plays in situation X"... Why.... how can you even say that?

I know there is one mafia left and at least two of those people are town, it's fucked up for me because of what i tend to do and how i form my scumreads. I tend to think people make the best choices available and for... or like if i think about Jock, the mafia has to be you (or Trfel), because that's the correct play as mafia. Basically you're never gonna lose.

But dumbass logic (that's often right) says BC -> Shockeyy.

Chezinu is super town, i agree on what you said on him 12312313%. No bus there.
You're probably town too.
Vivax is town and i think he is faking a read on BC atm just to stay alive, which is dumb but hey he does that.


Feeeeeels.

It's funny thinking back to "ye-old-days of TL Mafia" circa 2014-15. There's part of me that expects to go into these games, roll town, and everyone insta-sheeps me and believes I'm town. But I don't remember or appreciate the crazy effort I put into those games until I start posting and then the "goddamnit why did I do this I have a life now" starts to enter my head. Then the hapa-meta cases drop and well... it goes downhill from there.

I had gone into D1 this game trying to channel my inner Palmar, which I have realized doesn't exist.

On April 07 2020 23:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Fine. First of all i mostly wanted to play with you so i am annoyed at what you did during the eod1, regardless the out outcome. So fuck you for that.


That's totally my bad, and I am sorry.

At the same time, I don't think I have the sanity to do what I used to do as town anymore. Mafia used to be a stress outlet, and I think I've found much healthier ways of expressing that outside of the forum.

I tend to play differently than other people. I dont like games where you lynch the low volume posters and most likely win. That translates towards me trying to figure out the "high-profile" mafia players over random lurk-shit-scum, if you know what i mean. That additionally translates to me being super bad and going ham on people like Palmar when they play a low-post-count play (which i am not used to that much) but are right. That's also why i don't play anymore, i can't justify me playing and trying to put shit together just to find out we lost because 20 people didnt play and 6 of those we lynched were townies. Idk if you can see my pov but yeah, that's it.


Oh yeah. That's definitely what you do. It's also the exact opposite of what I do. I have a very risk-averse approach to town and tend to go for low hanging fruit. But I do think that has helped us team up well over the years.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:17 GMT
#479
You are also right about the "optimal play is to bus" thing. This lynch looks very different in the old days. There was this part of my mind that looked at Jocks posting as "too scummy to be scum... he can't be THAT blatant... can he?"

But we're in a different age with different players. I'll just treat this like mafiascum.net until proven otherwise
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:21 GMT
#483
What's your best example from his filter?

I do see him questioning people... quite a bit. We can interpret that as density or posting-for-the-sake-of-posting, so what makes it the latter?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:23 GMT
#486
Devils advocate: If you're going to bus there, why not go harder? Surely mafia will go for at least some amount of "townie cred" in that spot?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:25 GMT
#489
When I think in my mind about how a "Trfel bus" would play out in the QT... it seems kinda weird and unnatural.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:26 GMT
#490
Out of curiosity, how (and when) does scum-Rayn bus Jock? What's the play, what do you communicate to him in the QT, and what are you generally posting in the thread?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:28 GMT
#492
Like a deep part of me really wants to believe that this whole game is your magnum opus as scum, but I look at Jocks filter and cannot see any level of sophistication there.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:29 GMT
#494
So basically, you're assuming he is irredeemable after the Shockey vote and hard-shipping him unless thread sentiment wildly changes?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:38 GMT
#500
That's a pretty decisive bus. The QT is fascinating to read.

Under a "sophisticated mafia" theory, it's probably actually Vivax who is the most likely candidate for a bus.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:39 GMT
#501
Vivax, I don't think either of us are really taking any of this super seriously.

I still think BC auto-dies tomorrow.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:45 GMT
#505
On April 07 2020 14:33 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 11:21 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 07 2020 11:01 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 07 2020 10:57 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 07 2020 10:44 Hapahauli wrote:
I have read all of your posts Shock.

Ultimately your alignment is a very important piece of that puzzle, and I'm gonna give you a hard time because I want to squeeze those juicy reads out of you.

So three questions for starters so we can begin to consolidate your opinions and feels:
1) Who is in your "do not lynch" bucket?
2) Who is in your "lynch" bucket?
3) Of Bucket #2, who is your top candidate and why? What makes them worse than other candidates?



1) rayn, hap, trfel
2) bloodycobbler, chezinu
3) havent decided, depends on night kill sadly.


What bucket is Vivax in?


It relates to third, I want to town lean him. But then again, one of the last ones to jump on the jock train, and decided to disappear right after the d1 post. Then he also says he doesn't mind killing a town. I'm on the fence.


I don't know what game you are reading. Prove me wrong that I called out Jock first right after my Trfel townread. You are making this about a vote position when everyone who would have been mafia on the Jock wagon had the hammer to lynch Hapa instead. Jock wagon is 200% all town.

Most posts after day end didn't make me feel like I had to chime in and I was relaxing after the kinda tense EoD before going to bed. And right now, BC looks townier to me, while you just look like superscum at this point.

Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 21:09 Vivax wrote:
On April 05 2020 21:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am just gonna say Vivax, if you think i would ever as mafia townread someone for absolutely nothing (i have weird reasons - for other people - to townread people at times as either alignment, but for nothing is not one of them), i dont think you know me that well. This is not even saying i can't be mafia it's just saying that reasoning of yours is absolutely idiotic.


But it wasn't an explicit townread, you just said there were only townies in the thread.

As for the other stuff, not convinced of Hapa, there's just too little in his filter to be able to jump to a conclusion. Needs to post more, until then null. And if you think his filter is alignment indicative already you are bad or mafia imo.

As for Jock, he really didn't do much besides sort of tunneling Trfel. There's this which could be regarded as looking at something else besides Trfel but it's just a whole bunch of nothing and also looks bad.

On April 05 2020 14:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 14:05 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I see something "off" but as of right now not alignment indicative. I just need to see more to swing either way.

Trfel / hap are where my eyes are focused atm


What do you think of Shockeyy's entrance? His tone seems weird to me. I don't know what that means for shockeyy though tbh.


It's like he thinks Shockey should look scummy but is afraid to say he thinks he does.


Btw now I can imagine the why of this.


This seems to be the gist of your suspicions on Shock, combined with the following:

On April 07 2020 15:21 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2020 15:10 Trfel wrote:
Vivax, why does BloodyC0bbler look townier now?


He's fluid in his re-evaluation and I like that he picked up on Shockeyyy's 'catch-up' being a tad too slow and disinterested for a game of this size, but especially disinterested. At EoD I was thinking myself of how we used to have D1s with 50-100 pages and then there's him struggling with 20 pages and trying to get peeps to vote Hapa.

Also because Shockeyy is climbing the olymp to mr. superscum much faster by flailing around posting disinformation.


So you think Shock is more likely to flip mafia for three reasons:
1) BC looks townier from his recent posting;
2) Shock is posting "disinformation";
3) Shock is promising to "catch-up" a ton but not really following through in a satisfying manner;

I get that, and understand why it is suspicious. However, I have looked rather extensively at Shock's previous town/mafia games this morning. He's lynchbaity in all of his games, but definitely shows enough competence as mafia (see the QT's I linked) to tell people what they want to hear and give concrete suspicions.

So all in all, I don't really see 2 and 3 as damning.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:48 GMT
#507
I also don't see how BC has been "fluid" at all with his reads.

His reads post tunnels me for sure, but he spends a lot of time in his posts:
a) "hedging" (repeated statements of "I could be wrong"), and;
b) establishing platforms to be suspicious of Chez and Shock.

I'm also not all that impressed by his analysis. He pitched last night's conversation between him and I as a "mutual" attempt to get reads from each other, but only really spent time pleasing me by answering my questions. He pitched very few questions to me, if at all.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:49 GMT
#508
Also, I tend not to give credit to players who give analysis when poked. Initiative is a townie trait, not answering questions.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 15:54 GMT
#511
*shrug*

If we get there, we get there.

Anyways, there's no sense in me tunneling BC more than I have. You know my thoughts.

Off to lunch. Back later.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:09 GMT
#519
My plan of holding the town hostage into lynching BC ain't going to work anymore sadly.

##Vote BloodyCobbler
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:16 GMT
#520
Shockey... the NK happened. Who's mafia?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:31 GMT
#524
My thoughts on Chez:

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=22#439
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#441
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#442
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 07 2020 17:42 GMT
#528
hapa#1206
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 14:49 GMT
#575
On April 08 2020 15:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Welp, given that basically everyone thinks the game is solved and I know me + someone else dies at night. I sat my vote with my biggest scum read mixed with what Vivax said near end of night.


I'm not your biggest scumread?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 17:53 GMT
#577
On April 09 2020 02:46 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2020 23:49 Hapahauli wrote:
On April 08 2020 15:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Welp, given that basically everyone thinks the game is solved and I know me + someone else dies at night. I sat my vote with my biggest scum read mixed with what Vivax said near end of night.


I'm not your biggest scumread?


He literally posted a little bit before this that he was voting me. I don't get what is it with townie people just not reading the thread.


I know that he voted you.

I'm curious about the gap in explanation. I was his indisputably top scumread last night. Now I am not, and there is no explanation for why.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 19:56 GMT
#581
Thinking out loud...

If for whatever reason we mislynch today, we are in LYLO with 4 players (3 town v. 1 mafia) heading into Day 3. Normally, the optimal play would be to no-lynch to get the town down to 2 town v. 1 mafia for better lynching odds.

Unfortunately that is not possible due to the ruleset since town cannot no lynch.

HOWEVER, the ruleset has another quirk: people who do not vote get auto-modkilled.

Therefore, It is actually better for a townie to volunteer to not vote and get modkilled, since it would put the town in a better position in the event of a BC town flip.

Thoughts?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 19:58 GMT
#582
BC and Shockey, I want both of your thoughts on this.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:01 GMT
#583
Also worth noting that today is the only day we can make this play. It is too risky to do it at a potential LYLO, since mafia can "volunteer" to modkill himself but last minute hammer.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:28 GMT
#585
Well you likely have an alterior motive to dismiss it out of hand.

But from a "town BC" perspective, there are 3 players that could be mafia in this game: Shockey, myself, and Chez. It is simply impossible to lynch all three unless we employ a modkill strategy.

So from town BC perspective, why it is not a hypothetically bad idea for me to modkill myself?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:30 GMT
#586
Double lynches in general are very pro-town. So why not have town vote to kill one player, and maybe have a secondary vote count to have someone modkill themselves as the second "lynch"?

I'm all ears if you want to give me a reason for why you think its stupid.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:34 GMT
#587
Like in my ideal world, either one of Shockey or BC modkills themselves and we lynch the other.

But if town wants me to modkill myself, I'm totally game.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 20:37 GMT
#588
On April 09 2020 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 09 2020 04:56 Hapahauli wrote:
Thinking out loud...

If for whatever reason we mislynch today, we are in LYLO with 4 players (3 town v. 1 mafia) heading into Day 3. Normally, the optimal play would be to no-lynch to get the town down to 2 town v. 1 mafia for better lynching odds.

Unfortunately that is not possible due to the ruleset since town cannot no lynch.

HOWEVER, the ruleset has another quirk: people who do not vote get auto-modkilled.

Therefore, It is actually better for a townie to volunteer to not vote and get modkilled, since it would put the town in a better position in the event of a BC town flip.

Thoughts?


Yeah, no, same exact reaction to this post I did to Jock.



FYI, not the same reaction. You didn't vote Jock on Day 1
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 21:06 GMT
#590
I can respect a moral difference of opinion on the matter. From my perspective (and as a former host of many games myself), if its in the rules, its fair game.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 08 2020 21:21 GMT
#593
Ah, BC, I'll concede to you on this. My bad and I'm sorry.

Apparently I haven't read the TL Model Mafia OP all that carefully:

7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 16:59 GMT
#602
Plz
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 17:01 GMT
#606
Ah well shit.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 17:18 GMT
#609
I don't see an option other than Shockey.

Rayn, talk to me about your Trfel read when you get the chance.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 17:20 GMT
#610
Also, I am confirmed a pretty terrible scum player. Ask Rayn.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 17:25 GMT
#612
On April 10 2020 02:23 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 10 2020 02:18 Hapahauli wrote:
I don't see an option other than Shockey.

Rayn, talk to me about your Trfel read when you get the chance.
Purely because of Chezinu's vote on Jockmcplop?

Maybe I'm tinfoiling too much, but the more I think about it, the more I think I could see it coming from mafia. Still a useful point but yeah, Chezinu is so unpredictable...


Not so much the vote itself, but the context of the vote and the implication at how much of a dick Chez would have to be to have done it.

On April 08 2020 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:
My thoughts on Chez:

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=22#439
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#441
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558350-holy-guardians-chapter-2?page=23#442
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 17:27 GMT
#613
I also wouldn't mind losing to mafia-Chez as much. Not a legit reason to not lynch him, but certainly its on my mind.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 17:31 GMT
#616
Explain it to me like I'm 5.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 09 2020 17:37 GMT
#619
On April 10 2020 02:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
He seems to a lot of doubt about his reads, it's like he is "clueless" to some level which doesn't seem to line up with his games as mafia where he actually makes cases and shit.


Couldn't the same be said about Trfel ("cluelessness")?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 16:25 GMT
#633
Not going to be around for the deadline, so thoughts now.

I have reasons to town-read everyone, which means that I'm reading something wrong about the game. When I look through my reads, I am certain that Chez and Rayn are town.

I cannot see Chez as mafia playing like he did, given that he was the only player to vote Jock before his series of "awful posts" on Day 1.
On April 07 2020 11:14 Hapahauli wrote:
Like, I get that Chez is random, but I don't think he's cruel or mean enough to his scum teammates to vote him and abandon him.


Likewise, Rayn is strong town in my book. Nothing has changed on my thoughts from before, especially the post by Jock:
Rayn reads strongly town to me, both based on his filter and Jocks' filter. This is for three reasons:
1) Most players, and especially forum players, have some desire to save-face. Pride in a purest sense. Rayn set up for this lynch with reckless abandon with no attempt whatsoever to save face. His posting literally sets up to humiliate himself after the flip. Mafia Rayn would know my alignment, as well as Jock's alignment. He is a sophisticated, smart, and experienced player enough to evaluate that there was a pretty high chance of Jock dying.
2) I really like Rayn's posting right after the flip. Again, a basic desire to save face. The torment of "oh god maybe I was wrong , to *BZZZZT DOES NOT COMPUTE RAWEFWHFJ*, to full on 'jet fuel does not melt steel beams" is a very townie thought process for someone who was wrong, and who's pride will not allow him to admit that he is wrong.
3) Reading Jock's filter transparently, there is a very clear attempt by Jock to white-knight Rayn early in the game:
Show nested quote +
On April 05 2020 13:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Wow does everyone see something off with rayn?

I don't see it.


On April 05 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:29 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 13:24 Trfel wrote:
On April 05 2020 12:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 05 2020 10:22 Trfel wrote:
So I think the most suspicious person so far is raynpelikoneet.
Implies that I am mafia one post, implies that I am town later
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Is that saying you dont belong to the family?
On April 05 2020 03:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe he fell asleep again? It's also boring to tak with townies only so maybe we wait for the bloody cobbler to arrive.
Why did raynpelikoneet's view change? Even if he's just joking around, if he's town, I expect him to have some perception of my alignment; whatever it is, it can't really fit into both of these statements.


INITIATE DISLIKE PILE.
Care to explain why?

@Vivax, you too?

It looks like you are being very sensitive to rayn's opinion of your alignment, and that oversensitivity has caused you to read something NAI (rayn's early prodding) as being suspicious.

Why does that make me more likely mafia? I think all players, regardless of alignment, are more sensitive to people's opinions of them.



Overdefensiveness and coming into the game immediately being worried about people's read on you is +mafia for sure.

I don't think all players play like that at all.

A big example of this is the way you assume I think you are mafia when before this post I had not said anything of the sort, just that I disliked your previous post (I mostly disliked the logic of it until this response you just made).

So the two assumptions you had made were:

1: I think you are mafia
2: The fact that you think that I think you are mafia, and Vivax's town read on you, are the most important things to you in the thread (ie you didn't respond to or quote anything else)

Both of these assumptions show a mindset that you are coming into the game with, and that mindset is something that I have often seen with scum players.


This post screams of "Jock is taking a hard and safe stance because he knows that Rayn is town". Given Jock's later posts, again, I am taking this post at face value, rather than weighing it for mindgames.


a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 16:34 GMT
#634
Yeah, I think its Shockey.

I cannot see Trfel mafia. I have no freggin clue how mafia busses like this:

On April 06 2020 15:23 Trfel wrote:
Voting to make sure I don't forget. Will try to be back to catch up for the deadline but no guarantees, I'm horrid at waking up in the morning

Problem is, I don't know who to vote for It honestly feels like there is just not enough information for me to confidently scumread anyone. Jockmcplop is my best guess, though we may have to settle for a policy lynch. Gosh, I don't know

##vote Jockmcplop

May be around for a bit but likely going to sleep soon.


a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 16:42 GMT
#635
If you're going to bus (Trfel is effectively the 4th vote and therefore the hammer vote), how do you not go for more "cred" than that? You look so much better confidently calling Jock mafia.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 16:55 GMT
#636
Some things stick out about Shock's filter on a second readthrough:
1) Everyone alive has questioned my alignment at some point or another. Everyone except for Shock, and I find it very odd that he'd go from screaming in all caps that I outed myself as mafia in the thread to all of a sudden considering me unlynchable-top-town after the Jock flip. He never considers that it could have been a mafia v mafia lynch.
2) Shock is much more opinionated and aggressive than I first read him, when I readthrough the Day 1 lynch.
3) He left Vivax off of his end-of-night-1 read list. I had dismissed this as odd, but it's possible this is a slip, as Vivax got shot.
4) "Shock and Jock" is an excellent mafia team name.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:32 GMT
#640
wat.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:35 GMT
#643
On April 11 2020 02:33 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Especially since mafia didn't NK and rayn who was my strongest town read gets killed...


Mafia didn't NK...

So of course he does what he thinks is best, kill Rayn so Chez nor myself can align against Hap the last mafia.


...so therefore hapa-mafia killed Rayn?

What in the actual?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:37 GMT
#644
The mafia not submitting anything really throws me a loop.

Is it Chez?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:40 GMT
#645
But that post by Shockey is so outrageously stupid. How do you acknowledge that mafia didn't NK and then call someone scum using a targeted NK analysis?

##Vote Shockey
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:42 GMT
#647
So Shockey,

What did exactly did you mean by...

On April 11 2020 02:33 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2020 01:55 Hapahauli wrote:
Some things stick out about Shock's filter on a second readthrough:
1) Everyone alive has questioned my alignment at some point or another. Everyone except for Shock, and I find it very odd that he'd go from screaming in all caps that I outed myself as mafia in the thread to all of a sudden considering me unlynchable-top-town after the Jock flip. He never considers that it could have been a mafia v mafia lynch.
2) Shock is much more opinionated and aggressive than I first read him, when I readthrough the Day 1 lynch.
3) He left Vivax off of his end-of-night-1 read list. I had dismissed this as odd, but it's possible this is a slip, as Vivax got shot.
4) "Shock and Jock" is an excellent mafia team name.


Hap I did consider the bolded part are you sure you actually read through the thread? the lack of reading is a big tell... Especially since mafia didn't NK and rayn who was my strongest town read gets killed... Notice how Rayn who read me town, and I read town back had at least an upper hand on the game against mafia if it came down to 2v1. So of course he does what he thinks is best, kill Rayn so Chez nor myself can align against Hap the last mafia.


... if you didn't read the blue part...?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:43 GMT
#648
There's no way for you to know that mafia didn't NK unless you read the blue part.

Unless you're mafia.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:51 GMT
#650
I'm around now - shit happens.

"Meh" doesn't cut it.

Just help me understand how you make the post that you made. How did you know mafia didn't NK without reading the "blue part"?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:53 GMT
#652
Trfel, get in here, i know your'e around.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 17:54 GMT
#653
Ok. So now that we established that you "guessed" based on the Day post, how do you post this:

Hap I did consider the bolded part are you sure you actually read through the thread? the lack of reading is a big tell... Especially since mafia didn't NK and rayn who was my strongest town read gets killed... Notice how Rayn who read me town, and I read town back had at least an upper hand on the game against mafia if it came down to 2v1. So of course he does what he thinks is best, kill Rayn so Chez nor myself can align against Hap the last mafia


Because your explanation just now does not square with this.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 18:16 GMT
#657
Trefel, Is that Shockey sequence on this page a scumslip or a rant gone wrong?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 18:26 GMT
#658
Shockey. You said you actually sat down and watched Chez's videos, right?

Didn't you say something about his video persona being some type of crazy killer?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 18:38 GMT
#660
##Vote Chez

You're right. The most plausible explanation is that Chez has been afk for 24 hours.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 20:37 GMT
#662
I'm Rafaello Ricci. Who are you?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 10 2020 20:58 GMT
#664
I have to read this game again using lore.

Which is going to be really fucking weird.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 12 2020 13:45 GMT
#695
##Unvote

This game makes me want to vomit. I have strong reasons to read everyone as town, and obviously one of my reads is wrong. Time to re-dive again.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 12 2020 15:15 GMT
#696
##Vote Shockey

Day 1 wagon on Jock was all town, final answer..

I looked through some Chez games to verify the "I'm TOWN" thing. I remembered it from years ago. Problem is, I could only find one mafia game from him in TL's search filter thingy. He was a mafia Traitor in that game and claimed Doctor... which doesn't help. I DID get to hear him talk about how he approached mafia and how he interacted with the QT when he joined, and I'm back to my original read on him. I can't see him voting Jock and fucking off. Can't see it. He may be troll-y, but he does try to help his teammates.

Trfel is a plausible "clean mafia" candidate, but again, I can't see why and how he'd bus like that. Also, just so many of his posts are dead-on emotionally consistent with town-Trfel. I haven't seen anyone be able to fake that in any of my games, and I'm going to roll with it.

That leaves Shockey. The argument in favor of Town Shockey is that his posting is too "off the rails" to be mafia. But at the end of the day, he acted pro-mafia on the D1 lynch, trying to push town away from the Jock lynch, essentially arguing that of the two candidates on deck (myself and Jock), I was the "scummier" candidate. I stand by this:

On April 11 2020 01:55 Hapahauli wrote:
Some things stick out about Shock's filter on a second readthrough:
1) Everyone alive has questioned my alignment at some point or another. Everyone except for Shock, and I find it very odd that he'd go from screaming in all caps that I outed myself as mafia in the thread to all of a sudden considering me unlynchable-top-town after the Jock flip. He never considers that it could have been a mafia v mafia lynch.
2) Shock is much more opinionated and aggressive than I first read him, when I readthrough the Day 1 lynch.
3) He left Vivax off of his end-of-night-1 read list. I had dismissed this as odd, but it's possible this is a slip, as Vivax got shot.
4) "Shock and Jock" is an excellent mafia team name.





a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 12 2020 16:52 GMT
#700
I hope not
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 12 2020 16:58 GMT
#702
See you on the flipside.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 12 2020 17:05 GMT
#709
GG yo.

Apologies to BC.

Valient effort Shockey.

Vivax MVP.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 12 2020 17:11 GMT
#713
Who would you have killed?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 12 2020 17:17 GMT
#716
On April 13 2020 02:15 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2020 02:10 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On April 13 2020 02:05 Hapahauli wrote:
GG yo.

Apologies to BC.

Valient effort Shockey.

Vivax MVP.


GG, I fucked up because I overslept my night kill by accident.


lol, it actually cast some decent shade on Chez in the obs.
Good one playing the derpy town though, you weren't that obvious.
Hapa didn't get rusty either.


Uh...

You mean other than forgetting the definition of cheating? Christ. I'm surprised GB didn't modkill me on the spot.
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