EPTWhen Koshi finishes reading the OP he can tell me what to do.
[M][T] Secret Hitler, Act I, Take II
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kitaman27
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When Koshi finishes reading the OP he can tell me what to do. | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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I'll promise to remember to vote. That alone should vault me into your top 3! | ||
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kitaman27
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![[image loading]](https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s---fzPjF6O--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/nmzkkimzhworcdyofrmv.png) I've said it once and I'll say it again. Lord Buckethead is the true people's champion. Who do you guys trust more to stand up to a fascist dictator? A bunch of petty politicians or an intergalactic space lord? Sure, he will probably enslave the human race afterwards, but you got to take a chance sometimes. | ||
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kitaman27
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Everything I've seen is just like really generic advice like tell the truth or look for the players with a motive to elect Hitler lol. | ||
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On October 30 2018 08:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: regardless of the first policy's outcome i don't think we should include the first councellor into the second government. Fascist policies, even if elected, in fact do not "kill us" that quickly imo. Why not go the resistance route and just roll with the guys that are providing positive results? Sure a facist policy isn't going to end the game right away, but wouldn't it be better to ride the initial liberal policy pushers as much as possible until they give us a reason to doubt them? | ||
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On October 30 2018 09:39 prplhz wrote: It's that things stay more simple if we can trust the first governments. It's actually I thought, let's just elect kita but he's super hard to read I think, so he can mess things up early and we can't trust anything that's going on later because we don't know if he lied about policies or not. lol I read this like 5 times and I still can't tell if you were arguing in favor of me being elected or against me. Based on your later posts it seems like you were in favor, but here it seems like you were outlining a reason why I shouldn't be chosen. Which way was it? On October 30 2018 09:59 Grackaroni wrote: I'm kind of tempted to guess that you are fascist and Kita is hitler. I'm also a shitty scum hunter though so meh. I like this format because people can't kill me very easily.  What makes you jump to the most likely scenario being that we share alignment? From my view, I'm looking for players that are trying to emulate liberal play by buddying up, as opposed to showing their cards right off the bat. prpl may fit that bill for trying to get on my good side, but I'm not sure yet. Rels is another one who I'd prefer to avoid as Chancellor round one, but that's mostly a gut read for his generic post about wanting more time to solve the game that kinda seems like an attempt for liberal cred. Krogan looks pretty good so far I'd say. Even if we don't pass his government, he should be considered later on. | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 30 2018 18:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think kita has a flaw on his resistance proposal, but i dont really think that makes him anything. What makes you think that it's better to elect separate governments as opposed to rolling with a government that provides positive results? It's obviously not a perfect plan since it depends on the draw of the cards, but if we get lucky with the first group we could manage to bang out a whole bunch of successes. | ||
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On October 31 2018 01:40 happykrogan wrote: I need rayn to explain why kita's resistance proposal is flawed though. I think I found a pretty major issue: On October 25 2018 04:46 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: The government has Term Limits. If the game has 6 or more players, the last president and chancellor to be in government cannot be candidates for the next chancellor candidate. We could still alternate two groups of successful nominations, but that's a bit trickier to pull off. I'd still like to hear rayn's explanation for why the plan was flawed though. | ||
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kitaman27
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[/QUOTE] Would that be any reliable though, anybody could say it, and Hitler would have no way to find out he's wrong? Also is letting Hitler know who you are that important? I feel like Hitler wouldn't want to take podshots at people anyway, so people would vote for him later on [/QUOTE] The key thing to watch for is if a player specifically calls out another player as Hilter in a way that isn't pushing suspicion onto that player. The fascists want to communicate with Hitler, while making him look good in the process. Joke posts are probably the best way to do this. It's tough to say whether the grack/conversion thing is an actual communication attempt (probably isn't to be honest), but stuff like that should be discouraged from this point forward. | ||
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On October 31 2018 03:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: The main point is that sooner or later some goverment is going to draw 3F so like.... "unsuccesful" government doesnt always equal suspicious. Nor does succesful government equal townies since scum in some cases have incentive to elect liberal policies. Eh if players are electing liberal policies, I'm fine taking that risk as long as they keep producing good results and don't look sketchy otherwise. I think I see what you're saying with the 3F stuff, but that seems like something we can evaluate when it comes up. Either way, it looks like we're forced to elect separate people based on the rules of the 8 player setup. | ||
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On October 31 2018 03:46 Grackaroni wrote: Kitaman worries me. Why is that? Is it still the prpl connection or is there something else? | ||
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On October 31 2018 06:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: for a liberal at least. that's what you meant? Yeah. | ||
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rayn's latest post makes sense from a perspective of wanting to maximize the reads early and krogan seems generally trustworthy so far. Passing to grack doesn't interest me that much since he went after the long hanging fruit early on. | ||
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kitaman27
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On November 01 2018 00:12 Conversion wrote: Because the most chaotic way to play is to just topdeck after reaching 3 failed elections, and I will vote no to any government including myself being president lol Conversion is so crazy that he's probably not Hitler. | ||
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On November 01 2018 00:38 Conversion wrote: Whether that's optimal or not, I'm not quite sure but I do like doing it. Considering we can get RNG'd and get a F/F/F draw (unless this is impossible, someone correct me please if it is), I don't see why we're in any rush to elect this particular government. Eh this explanation is a lot more scummy now that you lay it out. It would be one thing to ask for more time by failing a few and then eventually passing, but now that I think of it, a policy to reject all governments is really anti-town. On our first draw FFF would be like 24% (someone check my math?), as opposed to a 65% chance (11/17) of a fail from a single draw. That's really, really far from optimal. | ||
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Is that honestly what you think my intention was? | ||
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I was simply pointing out that I don't think a Hilter would so openly push a policy like that. By the way, anyone getting a bunch of timeouts with the site? tlzomg -_- | ||
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That being said, none of the alternatives inspire a ton of confidence. I'd ask you to reconsider me, but that's your call. | ||
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happykrogan raynpelikoneet byj prplhz Grackaroni Conversion Rels I have krogan slightly higher than rayn because I think the president slot has more wiggle room to send a double F through and get away with it, but I'm not entirely concerned about either. I'm always paranoid about playing games with rayn since I can't ever think of a situation where it worked out well when I trusted him, but even with the few things that I've disagreed with him so far, there don't seem to be inconsistencies in the logic. byj is kinda weird because it doesn't seem like he really cares about how he looks, which I think typically points to liberal. I had the same initial feeling about Conversion, but then I didn't like his explanation about the fail plan and he's got this sarcastic attitude with some of his posts that feel a bit manufactured. prpl is in the same boat as byj as someone who hasn't really said much, but I'd say prpl is worse because he's putting in slightly more effort to show he cares with a few random questions that don't really lead anywhere and a couple of wishy washy posts. I've already spoken about Rels about why I think he's a baddie. Grack I've gone back and forth on. On one hand, he didn't really seem invested in getting elected D1 and even if I he's wrong about his suspicion of me, I can see a viewpoint where a townie thinks that, but on the other hand, I didn't like his early game posting about prpl and picking Rels or conversion seems like the easiest path to rig the deck as president and then pass blame to your scummy looking choice. It does seem unlikely that grack would want to pair himself with another facist early on in the game however so I probably need to do some adjusting of my bottom three, either by moving grack up or replacing conversion/rels with someone else. | ||
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On November 01 2018 23:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Please explain hiw does grack pass blame to someone who got FF to choose from? It would be a LFF, he removes the L and then claims a LF pass for a 50/50 scenario with a fascist pass. I suppose he would have an alternative option of claiming he received FFF in that case. On November 01 2018 23:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also how does that make any sense at all since in your world grack has now given two possible choices as his chancellor, both of which are his scumbuddies? I specifically said that I don't think they would be scum buddies in that scenario. That list would be my current level of trust, but I highly doubt that the bottom 3 are correct. On November 01 2018 23:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Bbasically you are saying that grack is scum because he wants to elect a low-hanging fruit to pass blame on, but both of those low-hanging fruits are also scum... He would be picking a liberal player that the majority of the game thinks is facist in that case, hence an easy way to pass the blame. What's your order at this point? | ||
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kitaman27
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On November 02 2018 00:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well you kinda answered that in the end but idk why you wrote that in the first place when you say yourself it doesnt make sense. I think facist grack + liberal Rels or facist grack + liberal Conversion could make sense, but isn't as likely as liberal grack + facist rels or liberal grack + facist Conversion. I guess it's a moot point, since I would fail a group with rels or conversion regardless of gracks involvement. I could maybe get behind grack and prpl. I'd have to think a bit more about that. What makes you put bjy on the same level as Rels? I think Rels has actually has a scummy post with the more time stuff, as opposed to bjy whose only post is calling me out for trying to connect to Hilter, which is totally wrong, but not inherently scummy imo. | ||
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On November 02 2018 03:11 Grackaroni wrote: He's not he's only my second choice atm over you/byj/prplhz Is this the post you were referring to regarding why you liked Rels? On October 31 2018 06:27 Rels wrote: Grack one is he one where he says prp could be scum and kita Hitler. If that's the case, is Rel's thought process even consistent? From the way I read your filter, you don't actually think scum prpl was trying to contact me. | ||
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![[image loading]](https://www.teamliquid.net/mirror/smilies/devil.gif) | ||
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On November 02 2018 03:35 Grackaroni wrote: I changed my selection to Prplhz. Because you think he has a better chance than not to be town or because you think it's the only thing that would pass and you want to see something get passed this cycle? | ||
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kitaman27
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On November 02 2018 20:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why would you ever try to get your scumbuddy into a team with you as grack here?? It doesnt make any sense so logic says conversion cant be mafia with grackaroni. Yet kitaman doesnt aknowledge this at all. On November 01 2018 23:37 kitaman27 wrote: It does seem unlikely that grack would want to pair himself with another facist early on in the game however so I probably need to do some adjusting of my bottom three, either by moving grack up or replacing conversion/rels with someone else. Did you even read the post? I specifically DO acknowledge this. | ||
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kitaman27
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If you're voting yes today and you're on board with selecting rayn or krogan next cycle, does that mean you think the facist team is myself/Rels/byj? | ||
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On November 02 2018 23:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: I aisi have absolutely zero idea how anyone could ever think byj is even remotely townie, so that read of yours sounds like bs. Unless you have some extremely through meta-analysis. I went by his single game in the database: https://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/533201-elementary-mafia?user=byj Dude had a bunch of 1 liners, didn't really care how he looked, and ended up getting mislynched as town. I definitely don't feel good about having him in my top 4, but I think he looks slightly better than prpl at the moment and is more of an afk than having done anything inherently scummy so far. | ||
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kitaman27
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On November 02 2018 23:04 raynpelikoneet wrote: No you dont. You group Rels/Conversion both into the same category and dont come to any conclusion. Thats different from what i said. You do the same thing in one of your later posts too. I think the difference is that your argument is that grack with Rels/Conversion cannot make sense in mind, where as mine was that I'd update the list if that scenario where grack pairs himself with one of those players became reality. He threw it out there for a little bit, but settled on prpl eventually, which I don't think is enough to disregard the possibility completely. Do you think there is a strong enough argument to completely eliminate the possibility of grack + Rels or grack + conversion at the moment? I don't think so. Overall though, I think my trust ratings are better suited as tiers. tier 1: krogan/rayn (myself) tier 2: byj/prl/grack tier 3: conversion/rels | ||
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On November 02 2018 23:38 Conversion wrote: I'm not actually going to just be anti-liberal for the sake of it. I think enacting governments is a good way to get information, especially if we are up one right now and have a guaranteed +1 liberal policy barring any unlucky draws, or if one or both of krogan/rayn played us and passed a liberal card, in which case we won't be incredibly behind and it'll give us a look into getting more information as liberals. In terms of who's the most liberal in my eyes (as in, I'd elect them Chancellor), it'd be rayn = krogan > everyone else, even if I'm salty about krogan doing nothing but calling me a liar just from how government 1 went. Fair enough. Do you have any opinion of prpl specifically? | ||
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On November 03 2018 00:16 happykrogan wrote: I also don't think prplhz is that much less scummy than the other three. The problem I have to vote for people who I think are a little bit scummy or I will have to almost constantly vote no. And at least we will get informationout of it. Could you give me the spark notes version of who you view as facist and more importantly, why? If you're feeling better about conversion and would pass a grack/prpl team, I'm struggling to get an idea of who you think the bad guys are. | ||
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On November 03 2018 00:20 prplhz wrote: Grack is voting against his own government, I don't get it. He chose it. Do you think that's alignment indicative at all? If anything, it makes me feel slightly better about grack, since as facist he would probably be fine with the status quo. | ||
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On November 03 2018 00:36 prplhz wrote: I don't understand. How is downvoting a government not preserving status quo? Because he's passing up an opportunity at president, which I would think he would want as a facist. | ||
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On November 03 2018 00:28 Conversion wrote: Do you disagree with my reasoning that I want information, which is the primary reason I want to enact this government? I disagree because literally any two players will give us information, considering only krogan and rayn have been elected and they can't be chosen. Doesn't it make more sense to get information AND vote for two players that have the best chance of passing a liberal policy? Now that you've read through prpl, does that change your mind about the vote? On November 03 2018 00:28 Conversion wrote: Does that make prplhz scummy as well? I think you made a solid point about prpl being "not ready to post.", which doesn't really make sense if you have something important to say unless you're laying a trap, which doesn't seem like prpl's style. I'm still pretty conflicted about whether I'm going to vote yes or no on this one. | ||
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I'm at pass at the moment. | ||
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On November 03 2018 07:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: my brain tells me you are very hard pushing this agenda for no reason other than you are scum with kitaman who just voted yes onto a team that he never should have voted yes on This pair excluded two of my top scum reads so it was good enough for me. I don't really care what you think as long as we keep sending the liberal policies through. | ||
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On November 03 2018 08:59 byj wrote: How do you guys feel now? Shouldn't I be practically scum now, due to not talking but voting? wut Are you trying to refute my post or something? o.O | ||
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On November 04 2018 01:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: So grackaroni is pretty much conf town if we draw 3 more liberal policies. Wait, why is that? You can make the argument that they aren't scum buddies, but with L/L/F passing back the facist card doesn't eliminate the possibility completely. | ||
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On November 05 2018 00:50 kitaman27 wrote: Wait, why is that? You can make the argument that they aren't scum buddies, but with L/L/F passing back the facist card doesn't eliminate the possibility completely. Nevermind, just saw that you clarified. | ||
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kitaman27
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tier 1: krogan, grack, rayn tier 2: prpl tier 3: byj, conversion, rels I think grack rejecting his own presidency is rather town looking considering the decent opportunity to pass FF. Now that byj has started posting more, I think he looks a lot worse by purposely withholding his reads and asking random questions that don't seem like they serve a purpose. I'm going to vote down the conversion team. For my presidency, I'd likely nominate krogan who I have a slightly better feeling on, compared to rayn, but I still haven't decided for sure. | ||
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On November 05 2018 02:53 Conversion wrote: Like he wasn’t sure on the last government, he’s not sure on who he’s going to nominate for a government. I said I was nominating either krogan or rayn, probably krogan. Now you're just trying to discredit me for the sake of discrediting me. On November 05 2018 02:53 Conversion wrote: I don’t understand how I’m scummier than prplhz when I made a good call out on his behavior, which he disregared bc “meta” This is why: On November 02 2018 22:32 Conversion wrote: I'm chill with passing this government On November 02 2018 23:49 kitaman27 wrote: Do you have any opinion of prpl specifically? On November 02 2018 23:53 Conversion wrote: Let me take a look into his filter. You show absolutely no concern regarding whether grack has nominated a town looking player. When I ask you about your opinion about prpl, you show that you haven't even looked at him. When you actually do give an answer about prpl when I asked you twice, you point out a bunch of things wrong with him and pass the team through for "information". Your explanation about why that was a good thing looks scummy to me. | ||
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On November 05 2018 03:26 prplhz wrote: Why do you think grack is town kita? He passed on his own presidency at a point where the vote was really close. There was a 50% chance at FFL, which is great for a facist president because they can discard L and claim FFF. | ||
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On November 05 2018 04:37 kitaman27 wrote: He passed on his own presidency at a point where the vote was really close. There was a 50% chance at FFL, which is great for a facist president because they can discard L and claim FFF. I guess there's a scenario where that could make sense as a Hitler play, but I'm not even close to entertaining that at this point in the game. | ||
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On November 05 2018 05:18 prplhz wrote: Isn't that just how the probabilities work out almost always? Yeah, same logic would apply to almost any cycle. | ||
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On November 05 2018 05:46 prplhz wrote: Who will you elect for chancellor kita? Will you vote for yourself or vote no for the towncred? Krogan most likely. You seem annoyed that I had a change of opinion on grack and view him as town now, yet you don't really seem to have a scum read on grack yourself. Why is yet? | ||
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On November 06 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: 1) I was busy this weekend which is why I "took a backseat role," so don't fit your narrative to fit your argument, please. ok cool. On November 06 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: 2) I don't care about getting elected, I care about poorly constructed arguments. Can you specify anywhere in my filter where I want people to elect me? On November 02 2018 22:32 Conversion wrote: I'm assuming I want to pass krogan or rayn into chancellorship-- is it going to pass though? On November 02 2018 23:41 Conversion wrote: Who would you have me vote (besides yourself) for chancellor? I think these show that you care about getting elected, along with the most recent string of posts. Furthermore, when I said that I was going to vote against you, your very next post was when you started attacking me. It seems like an omgus. On November 06 2018 00:52 Conversion wrote: also terrible read, I get really angry every game Aww don't get angry. This is supposed to be for fun and we're in a good spot if you are indeed town. If you're facist, well that's how the cookie crumbles, but then again maybe you're faking anger in that case lol. Am I correct in assuming that you still town read krogan, even if his arguments against you aren't valid in your mind? | ||
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On November 06 2018 06:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: I heavily disagree with your byj read early on. As i already said people who do scummy stuff are usually scum, and there is simply no reasonable explanation why someone wouldn't even try to properly play the game as town, espicially when asked to contribute. Yet it happens all the time and you know it. I'm not saying it's good town play, but there are just as many examples where town players do absolutely nothing, as there are mafia. From my personal experience, newbie mafia players go out of their way to look good and comment on stuff that doesn't really matter within the first 24 hours of the game because they're overly excited about looking good, where as I felt that byj didn't fit that mold. It was basically a heuristic, until he started posting content to make it easier to determine what his alignment was. Now that he has posted more, I tend to agree that he doesn't look very good, but I stand by the original thought process. On November 06 2018 06:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: I heavily disagree with your lack of conclusion in the Grack + Conversion / Rels thingy because i think, if you actually thought that through from liberal pov you should have realized there is basically no way Grack can be mafia with Conversion, yet every time you talked about the matter you coupled up Conversion and Rels together and i think you are trying to use that as disguise so you don't actually have to make a conclusion that might hurt you later on. Regarding the above, this is your list after the discussion about it: If you really think Conversion and Rels are mafia then why the hell is Grack in the tier 2? Because it would simply be the most retarded thing i have ever seen if Grack wanted to originally nominate two of his scumbuddies, one of which is Rels who is considered scum by almost every single person in the game. If you actually think Conv/Rels are tier 3 then Grack should always be town for you, and just made two bad reads at the start of his presidential turn. Once again we go there; you don't make any hard conclusions when you actually could make those, if you don't think your tier list is accurate the why are you even making one? The above happened before Grack wanted to pass on his presidental turn and you apparently townread him for it. You have also taken "pot shots" on purplehaze yet it seems like none of his answers gets you anywhere regarding him, well i'd say that's the case with you on others aswell but that is possible you could do that as town since there isn't much from a lot of players in the thread (aka anyone who isn't me or krogan). This point is moot since I think I misread grack on day one and it's pretty pointless to try to argue a scenario that I don't think is likely, but you do realize that facist players can lie right? Grack threw out the idea of nominating conversion and rels, but he didn't actually nominate them, which is far more relevant in my mind. Just like a game of mafia, scum buddies can pretend to be suspicious of each other, but at the end of the day if they're not willing to vote each other then it really doesn't matter. Plus, I think it's a disservice to yourself to try to identify the entire scum team at the start of the game. I went with the players that I thought looked the worse and based my voting criteria on excluding those. There was also the Grack + conv Hilter breadcrumb thing from day one that was sitting in the back of my mind, but like I said, I don't think that's the case. On November 06 2018 06:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: Basically i find your reads very easy to make and based on them, if you believed in those reads, the lists you have made make absolutely no sense to me. You should know something is wrong when you have your reads and make them into a list, which should get you into reconsidering and / or trying to find more evidence. You do neither, and instead just post the list. You say I don't reconsider, but I did reconsider if you compare my first list to my latest list. My reads on grack and byj have indeed changed. Either way, I don't think we're that far off with our current reads, except maybe conversion, so I don't need you to think of me as confirmed town as long as things continue to stay on track. | ||
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On November 06 2018 06:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: Do you seriously think Grackaroni had the thought that he'd backpedal from nominating Conversion? Because i don't think that's a possibility given how strong he implied his read was (i agree Rels was never gonna get nominated most likely). Because if that was the case this would have happened: 1) Grack thinks: "okay i put my scumbuddy Conversion up there" (at least i agreed with his townread on Conversion back then) 2) "Well this is a super terrible thing to do because Rels isn't gonna be nominated anyways so i have to WAIT FOR HAIL MARY AND CROSS FINGERS THAT SOMEONE COMES AND TELLS ME TO NOMINATE SOMEONE ELSE" 3) rayn vouches for prplhz -> "THANK GOD I WOULD HAVE DONE A TERRIBLE MISTAKE FULLY KNOWING I DID ONE IF RAYN DIDNT DO THAT" really kita? really? that's not how mafia plays. On November 01 2018 23:37 kitaman27 wrote: It does seem unlikely that grack would want to pair himself with another facist early on in the game. I did say that it's unlikely in that exact post. Like I said, I wasn't entirely concerned about having the mafia team solved day one to have a scum read on both grack and conversion at the time. I don't think a facist grack necessarily had to anticipate someone else throwing out the prpl read. I think he could have nominated myself or prpl himself, but clearly you think otherwise. Either way, we're trending too far into hypothetical scenarios. | ||
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On November 06 2018 07:05 happykrogan wrote: Is it generally a bad Idea to just sheep a good player you think is townie when you are unsure about your own reads? Yes, it's usually fine to sheep another player if you think they are town, as long as you develop reads of your own eventually. That being said, I do find it weird that you seem to lean fascist on Conversion and say that you don't want to read me until tomorrow, yet are planning to pass this one through. | ||
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On November 06 2018 07:32 kitaman27 wrote: Do you still think he was lying? If not, why would a town player have motivation to lie in that case? If so, what changed your mind? EBWOP | ||
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Rather than speaking in riddles, any chance that you could tell us what you do think? | ||
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How do you intend to make any progress doing that? | ||
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On November 06 2018 10:36 Rels wrote: fuck just as I got to a PC  I assume you would have voted yes? On November 06 2018 11:11 byj wrote: So kitaman, why did you vote no? :~) I think Conversion is a baddie. Apparently not many others share that opinion  | ||
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There was at least one facist who has been elected so far, which means they either chose not to sabotage or didn't have an opportunity to sabotage. I think the facist player would usually choose to sabotage if they have the opportunity, unless they are Hitler. Unless things really, really spiral out of control it seems unlikely that we'd hit 6 facist policies. The path to victory seems to be pretty straight forward and we have a dt check as a safe guard for when we eventually hit FFF. If we get a town result, that gives us a decent way to avoid Hitler as chancellor for half of the elections. Either Krogan or Grack for me this cycle. I'm going to re-read one more time before I decide to see if I can figure out who the elected facist might be. | ||
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35.5% FFF 54.5% FFL 11% FLL 0 % LLL Which gives me a 65% chance of passing a liberal policy to Krogan like you say. If he passes liberal, then we're at 4 and it's pretty much trivial playing things out from there. If I get FFF, then that means 3F and 2L is left in the deck, which allows us to follow through with your plan. Either we win the game outright or Krogan can check me if we get unlucky and reach a second facist policy. Then I can serve as Chancellor for every odd cycle since it would guarantee we're not electing Hitler and I'd have a town check on me to prove it. The only different from your plan that I'd suggest is that the player with the town DT check should be given the gun to shoot Hitler if we make it that far. The only flaws I'm seeing are 3F, followed by 3F which would be really unlucky (10% * 35% = 3.5% I think?) or if someone was lying about which card they discarded, which still puts us in a solid spot with this plan since at worse, we're 1 card off. | ||
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On November 07 2018 07:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: Can you elaborate here a bit more. Why does Conversion's gov pass if this is the case? Or even your gov? lol I got crucified for suggesting a Grack + Conversion team, yet HK said that he was going to nominate me about 5 times, before he ended up with rayn. That team really doesn't make sense. Plus each of the last two votes reached majority with a single vote being able to swing things. On day two, I announced that I was passing your grack + conv team and then krogran decided to switch his vote to pass afterwards as well. There is really no reason for us to send it through. Plus there was the whole prpl throwing my name out at the start of the game for no good reason thing, which I think shows that it's pretty obvious we're not buddies either. | ||
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On November 07 2018 07:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: Meh, shit... We downvote you, the next whoever that was, me -> 1F We downvote next 3 -> 2F -> krogan gets investigation -> krogan investigates you (gets town - you're ok, gets scum, one of you 2 are scum and we re-evaluate) We downvote next 3 (if you = town) -> 3F -> you get to choose president there Now if this happens, we will re-evaluate there. If there is a liberal passed anywhere on the path we re-evaluate there. Do you think that's better than passing a Kita/Krogan pair with a 65% chance of a liberal card getting to Krogan and then doing a single draw rotation afterwards if we get FFF since that would leave the deck at 3F, 2L and then we can follow through like planned? | ||
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On November 07 2018 07:43 raynpelikoneet wrote: I will say something though, that i have been keeping to my chest for a while. Why were you more certain of krogan being town than me being town at some point during the game, kita? I mean the point when for example the prplhz discussion was going on. krogan did absolutely nothing during maybe 2 irl-days other than rewrote my posts. I think Krogan deserved the town cred from the first election where he had the opportunity to pass FF and claim FFF, where as you had less of a choice. If I had the opportunity now, I'd choose you over krogan since you're still trying to find a path to victory and he has kinda dropped off, but I still think you're both town regardless. I'm going to go ahead and choose grack. I have a pretty strong town read on him and I think the plan to put the DT check in rayn's hand is a good one. If we're lucky, we'll just hit the 65% liberal policy chance on my presidency and the game will kinda be over anyways. Rels is obviously going for a hail marry with that team that makes little sense and he showed very little interest in the game early on to suddenly think he conveniently "solved" the game. | ||
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On November 08 2018 01:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why is it not possible krogan drew LLF? It's possible, but I don't really think it's likely considering I think he's town. Aside from it being half as likely statistically and making grack's LLF draw even less likely, there isn't a great reason to lie about it since he's passing LF either way and you could get caught later in the game, where as the return is a bit of extra cred that people may not necessarily care about. Krogan has looked rather townie otherwise with the way he went about choosing his first chancellor and has a good voting record. | ||
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On November 08 2018 01:26 Rels wrote: That makes no sense for you to plan for a investigation check if you think you, Grack, rayn and conversion are town. In that scenario, the chance that we have 6 F in a row is ridiculous. The other players are planning about it because they're not sure of our alignment. But from your POV it makes no sense That's just the fallback plan. Like I said several times, "If we're lucky, we'll just hit the 65% liberal policy chance on my presidency and the game will kinda be over anyways." | ||
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On November 08 2018 01:42 Rels wrote: The fallback plan still doesn't make sense. If you get FFF, rayn duo are almost guaranteed to have a liberal policy in their choices. That's a good thing since it would mean we would be at 5 liberal and 1 facist. And if we get really unlucky with the 2 liberal cards at the bottom of the deck then we have the DT fallback, but I think it's like 3.5% chance of happening if everyone was truthful with their draws. | ||
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On November 08 2018 02:28 kitaman27 wrote: That's a good thing since it would mean we would be at 5 liberal and 1 facist. And if we get really unlucky with the 2 liberal cards at the bottom of the deck then we have the DT fallback, but I think it's like 3.5% chance of happening if everyone was truthful with their draws. Unless rayn passing a liberal card and that player happens to be facist, but that scenario could happen basically any way we set things up. | ||
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On November 08 2018 04:40 Rels wrote: I think the plan to put the DT check in rayn's hand is a good one" is not something you could have thought, since it has no chance of happening; if you get unlucky and get FFF, rayn is almost sure to have a liberal card, and thus don't have investigative power. That would be FFF, followed by FFF or FFL with a facist chancellor. It's more likely that we just win outright, but meh. | ||
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On November 08 2018 05:28 byj wrote: Oh that's high. Because I trust Grack, but I expected the FFF chance to be lower. I don't trust kita enough to leave him a 33% excuse, is it possible to change my vote? There is a 35.5% chance regardless of who is elected. You can change your vote, but you really shouldn't. It's just going to pass to Rels afterwards who will get downvoted, then passed to rayn who has the same chance of getting FFF. You said yourself that grack is the only player you trust. I don't think you'll ever get elected so this really is the best you'll get. | ||
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On November 08 2018 08:13 Rels wrote: finally it feels good to play this gamelol passing 3 straight liberal policies didn't feel good, but getting a shot at getting elected does? Okay  | ||
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kitaman27 - Yes raynpelikoneet - Yes to one or the other byj - Yes, but could change prplhz - Learning Yes happykrogan - Yes to both pairs (?) Grackaroni - ? Conversion - Leaning No? Rels - No | ||
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On November 06 2018 01:39 Conversion wrote: anyways, my state of the game: elect always: rayn elect high priority: grack neutral: kita try not to elect: prplhz, byj, happykrogan, rels On November 08 2018 00:43 Conversion wrote: it boils down to skipping you or kita again.. more inclined to skip kitaman so I'll rethink and redive. I really think we may have forced Conversion's hand with showing his allegiance to Rels. He lists grack and myself in his top three trustworthy list and since rayn can't be elected, that would mean grack + kita is his ideal team. Yet a day later when he is suddenly given the choice he decides to favor a Rels + grack team over me with no explanation. People need to pay attention to this if that's how things shake up. Rels team may be more likely to pass, but that's because he has his pair of cronies to back him up. You should vote for the player who is most likely town, not the team that is most likely to pass. | ||
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On November 09 2018 00:17 Conversion wrote: I'm tempted to just OMGUS kitaman and veto him because he keeps sticking to this "Conversion is scummy and I will never reposition myself away from this position" and it's on krogan's level of stubbornness and it's annoying me, but I'll objectively dive. Heh if I were scum I'd totally buddy up to you to try to earn your vote, but the fact of matter is that I do in fact still think you're mafia. Could you explain the discrepancy in the posts I just pointed out? | ||
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On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: He seems to say that it's find if we roll with people that are providing positive results, which makes the entire pool of governments we had so far good candidates to roll with his plan. However, he seems to be going against what he thought was a good plan-- he is no longer re-evaluating after a negative result is shown, but not rolling with a government that showed a positive result (Conversion/rayn) and just automatically vetoing me based on his read. Huh? During your presidency only krogan, rayn, and grack had alignment indicative results from the elections. I'm not sure what you mean why you say that you showed a positive result. On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: He in fact, during this time, has called me being scummy for "being cool with grack/prplhz," while completely ignoring the fact that I was specifically okay with it because I had a strong belief that it would be a liberal grack/prplhz facist split at best That's correct. I think that's scummy reasoning. On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: Why did kitaman then have such a hard time deciding? Grack and prplhz was in the lower half of his townie rankings, it should have been leaning pretty hard to a no in that case since he did not believe in voting a government solely for getting information. The term limits meant that I couldn't take rayn or krogan who were at the top of my list. I wasn't going to get chosen by you or grack, which pretty much means that I had to pick players from my middle tier. It didn't include you and Rels so I passed it through. You're really framing your argument to fit your narrative here. On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: He thinks a facist was elected, but also thinks that facist player would choose to sabotage if they had the chance, unless they are Hitler. Correction, I know that a facist player was elected. At this point, I'm leaning towards either you being Hitler or prpl being a facist who didn't need to make a choice on d2. On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: If that's the case, why isn't he pushing this idea further to convince other liberals? Seems like an awfully convenient soft jab to try and paint me as a facist. Well I think I made it pretty clear with my latest post that I think you and Rels are connected. Hardly a soft jab. | ||
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On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: No, you didn't have to pick people from your middle tier, you could have pushed for more information in order to be more sure of who you were voting for. You sat back, told people you were unsure, and then ended up voting for them for ?reasons? that I still don't know. So what's my facist motivation for passing it through? On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote: How do you know a facist was elected? Playing possibility games != certain knowledge.. I'm certain because there were five people elected and I wasn't one of them lol. I know for a fact because there are only five liberals in the game. You obviously aren't working with the same knowledge, but it's a fact nevertheless. | ||
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On November 09 2018 04:03 Conversion wrote: oh wait I am stupid, you are right. facist HAS to have been elected with 6 unique people in a government. I take the last statement back Only five actually. rayn was elected twice. | ||
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On November 09 2018 02:29 happykrogan wrote: @kita do you think it is more likely, that we have a hitler Conversion or a scum prplhz If Converison is hitler, why do you think this isn't true anymore? At the time I thought it was too crazy for a Hitler to be pushing, but at the moment I think it's the scenario that makes the most sense regardless. | ||
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![[image loading]](https://cdn.newsserve.net/i/20170612/1825-Who-On-Earth-Is-Lord-Buckethead.jpg) I didn't want to say it, but I think it has become pretty clear that you're all racist against our benevolent overlord. It's really not your fault though. The nasty prejudice has passed down from generation to generation and has become so ingrained into the fabric of our society that you find yourself unable to overcome it. I have a dream that my children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their bucket shaped head, but by the content of their character. | ||
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On November 09 2018 06:08 prplhz wrote: Is kita claiming scum? Naw lol. Just annoyed that Rels is going to make find a way to sabotage, it's going to be really obvious in hindsight, and we're going to have to sit through another 48 hours of this stuff. | ||
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On November 09 2018 06:13 happykrogan wrote: I read Rels again - I still don't know why he initially scumread kita, but he probably just forgot to write it. If he thinks I'm mafia, but doesn't bother to explain why, doesn't that earn him scum points, not town? On November 09 2018 06:13 happykrogan wrote: Also I'm not sure if a scum player would want to limit himself to a complete teamread, when they have a lot of votes left to win to get a chance of winning the game. So I'm fine with voting Rels instead of Kita Why are you applying this logic to Rels, but not me? I've been even more open attacking players whose votes I'd need if I were mafia. | ||
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On November 09 2018 06:39 happykrogan wrote: He thinks he has explained. He said that he thinks he has some posts in his filter so he probably forgot - I would prefer to wait until he answers but I don't think he is back until deadline. But isn't it relevant that he never bothers to push the argument until the moment it's a Rels vs kita scenario on day four? | ||
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On November 09 2018 06:44 happykrogan wrote: Actually he has his periods of inactivity but when he was active, he referred to you as a scumread. It's mostly a couple of one liners about me and prpl being together though after the day one events. I really can't imagine a town Rels seeing prpl waffling around suggesting that I be elected because I'm "nice" with no other good reason and then deciding "Ah ha! I've find the scum duo". Like how does that even make sense? | ||
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On November 09 2018 06:51 prplhz wrote: Didn't just everybody do that? You townread krogan all game, above Grackaroni, why did you choose Grackaroni now? I don't get why people townread Grackaroni for passing me 2L. I sort of understand his reasoning to do it (didn't want to risk a fascist policy if he could force a liberal), but that is no reason to town read him. It's more an excuse for not wanting to pass me 1L1F and get a better read on me on top of a liberal policy. Grack voted no to his own presidency which I think looks pretty townie. I didn't really have a strong preference between grack and krogan to be honest. | ||
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On November 09 2018 07:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: kita what's the point of the "scumclaim" on last page? joke post? | ||
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On November 09 2018 07:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: Just like people joke posted to try to find other scum as hitler or? I dont really get joke posts like that in this game. It was a call back to conversion not liking me because of my support of buckethead on d1, which was a callback to a random post like 2 years ago. Don't worry about it lol | ||
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Conversion suddenly changing his view of me and Rels is really telling I think. | ||
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On November 09 2018 07:26 Conversion wrote: Do you want to vote yes on kita and no on Rels? I'm not rayn, but I think "here" is pretty obviously referring to yes on this vote for me. | ||
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On November 09 2018 07:40 Conversion wrote: Thanks Captain Obvious. Want to tell me wif he wants to vote Rels as well? The whole part of the plan was only passing one so he could get the dt check. | ||
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On November 09 2018 07:54 prplhz wrote: I don't know how I will vote. On October 30 2018 22:12 Rels wrote: I would prefer to not elect a president right away to have more time to discuss. Like in resistance It's also really important to read between the lines sometimes! On October 30 2018 22:14 Rels wrote: Me and conversion probably? Just so you know. On October 30 2018 22:15 Rels wrote: Are you sure? As opposed to what ? Hard to read ? What's the benefit of that ? On October 30 2018 22:18 Rels wrote: Facists, but I don't understand you townread kita in the first place for being nice. When apparently you think hes a good scum player whoooa look at what I just found?! This is game changing. RELS IS TOTALLY OUTING HIMSELF TO HITLER AT THE START OF THE GAME. VOTE YES HERE!!!!!!! | ||
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Lets see how Rels does I suppose. | ||
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On November 10 2018 01:08 Rels wrote: concerning kita, you all have to know that he's a hard to catch scum. My first really salty loss came from a game where he was scum and smurfing, this one. He made really reasonnable and logical posts all game, and nobody really suspected him until he won by himself. And I see the same this game. He's making reads based on good looking, logical reasons. My problems is that sometimes, when he writes a post and wants to justify a choice, like a read and a vote, I can feel that he's making up a reason on the spot. And sometimes, this reason that seems so logical, actually shouldn't make sense in his point of view. ![[image loading]](https://thumbs.gfycat.com/AmazingBlackandwhiteIbis-size_restricted.gif) On November 10 2018 01:08 Rels wrote: Here, he's saying that a reason to scumread Grack is that he wants to elect two people that are scummy to "pass the blame". But this doesn't shouldn't make sense because in his point of view, Grack, Conversion and I are the 3 bottom people of his list. He tries to justify it with the last sentence, but that doesn't solve the chicken and egg problem; Grack is scummy because he wants to elect scummier people with him; but he's probably not scum with a dude he wants to elect; so he shoudln't have been that low on the list in the first place. I was suspicious of Grack because I didn't like his nomination choices. When he chose not to elect you or conversion I decided to vote for him through (I was the tiebreaker). As for the Conversion is Hitler thing, I would be pretty surprised if Hitler hadn't figured out who his buddies are by now. If I can figure out that you're mafia, it should be pretty obvious to Conversion too considering how much you've propped him up all game and you've never supported a liberal agenda. On November 10 2018 01:08 Rels wrote: Finally, the hail mary yesterday. He faked some of my posts LITERALLY 1 MINUTE before the deadline, so there wouldn't be time for them to be fact checked. He later claim he was just messing with people, but that's a very convenient joke that could have make the difference between him being elected or not. lol I posted it at 5:59:50. 10 seconds before the deadline. It was literally impossible for someone to happen to refresh the page immediately, read the post, and change their vote in that amount of time. That impacted the vote in no way at all. | ||
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On November 01 2018 06:59 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: 5. Rels - Nein! On November 03 2018 07:03 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: 5. Rels - Nein! On November 06 2018 10:32 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: 5. Rels - has been warned for not voting On November 09 2018 08:15 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: 5. Rels - Nein! People really need to pay more attention to this. The single most important part of this game in regards to ones alignment is voting record and election actions. RELS HAS NOT CONTRIBUTED TO A SINGLE LIBERAL POLICY BEING PASSED. He failed the rayn/krogan vote. He failed the grack/prpl vote. He didn't vote for conversion and rayn. He failed the kita/grack vote. You know what his first YES vote is going to be? WHEN HE'S PRESIDENT. He's suddenly "motivated" to play the game. You know why? Because he finally has an opportunity to send a facist policy through. How convenient. Can we please just pass this over to rayn? Someone explain to me why rayn as president and krogran/grack as chancellor doesn't make more sense? Those guys have proven they can send liberal policies through. Rels has done absolutely nothing but smear my name to suit his purposes. | ||
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Conversion and Krogan would have very easily switched their vote if you told them to, yet you didn't. | ||
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On November 10 2018 03:16 Rels wrote: I don't understand what you're saying. I'm not claiming I'm town due to my voting pattern, I'm defending against kita's accusation that my votes make me scum. You're not defending it adequately though. Voting no to all four pairings and justifying it by saying one of those 6 players was mafia, doesn't make it okay. | ||
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On November 10 2018 03:37 Rels wrote: I'm attacking your reasonning. You think at least one dude elected is scum, yet you're attacking me saying "he voted NO to all the teams, therefore he's scum!" Well according to you, I voted NO to at least one scum, so your reasonning doesn't make sense. My argument is that you haven't contributed to a single liberal policy being passed based on your voting record. There isn't any way to depute that, regardless of how you want to frame it. | ||
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Voting no on this one. On November 10 2018 02:09 kitaman27 wrote: Can we please just pass this over to rayn? Someone explain to me why rayn as president and krogran/grack as chancellor doesn't make more sense? | ||
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byj has been so all over the place with his reads that I really don't think there's a chance he's facist at all. Zero chance. On November 11 2018 01:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why are you voting no here kita? The fact that you even have to ask this question shows that you're not even paying attention. | ||
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Calling it right here. | ||
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Now that I re-read your plan, it's so obvious. Mafia's only chance to win is to pass 3 facist policies and elect Hitler as the chancellor. You're plan is entirely motivated around having 2 facist polcies get sent through and the you getting control of the dt check. As president, you check Hitler, lie about his alignment and then get him elected to win the game before we catch on. Wow, how could I have been so dumb to not see this earlier. | ||
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It has to be. | ||
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On November 08 2018 07:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: All i care about is me getting the investigation so i find either conf scum or conf town (which will allow 100% win) On November 08 2018 07:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: All i care about is me getting the investigation so i find either conf scum or conf town (which will allow 100% win) On November 08 2018 07:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: All i care about is me getting the investigation so i find either conf scum or conf town (which will allow 100% win) | ||
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I was happy to get elected because I thought I'd just pass a liberal policy through and the game would be over. Now that I see you've set it up for Rels to pass a facist plan, you to pass a facist plan, and then you to fake a dt check, I've realized that's the only way you're going to win this. Think about it...krogan gave you L/F. I bet you passed L thinking you could take control of the thread and it has worked....until now. | ||
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-Rels 24 hours from now | ||
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Meh, we're not going to accomplish anything arguing with each other. Lets wait until some else shows up. | ||
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On November 11 2018 06:13 byj wrote: Also if you're reading this: Hello Conversation What is this? | ||
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That's pretty much proof Rels is mafia considering no facist team would allow this to go through otherwise. | ||
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On November 15 2018 02:21 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: prplhz's team rejected by: happykrogan, Grackaroni, Conversion, Rels, raynpelikoneet, byj A fascist policy has been enacted by topdeck. The election tracker is back at 0. Sketchy. | ||
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On November 16 2018 06:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: kita are you a girl and hotter than my gf??????? I can be anything you want me to be baby.  | ||
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On November 16 2018 23:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: kitaman why did you make that godawful townread on byj? I was 100% sold on you being scum after that. Well it was day four, with three passed liberal policies and Rels about to get elected lol. We weren't going to win at that point and we weren't able to concede so I was mostly just throwing stuff out there to set up a scenario where Rels draws FFF and I think you're scum. Unfortunately we didn't really get a break with the cards on the first few days and the president order was a bit unfortunate. On top of that, even prpl got stuck with the LL which I think was actually the right choice from grack. Me and byj weren't really on the same page this game with our voting and prpl accidentally drew suspicion day one linking himself to me, without knowing my identity. XD Congrats to town, well played! I'd be curious to see if prpl picked up on the signal we sent him day one. There was a phrase that would only make sense to him, but it was a reference to something from like 6 years ago Thanks to Sentinel and Mocsta for hosting. Was fun! | ||
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On November 16 2018 23:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah you kinda had to "yolo or die trying", that's true. I am very very proud of my prplhz read lol. <3 Heh when you hinted that you thought he might be Hitler at the start of day two I knew we were in trouble. I think a lot of townies did a good job looking town early in the game, which really limited options for a potential scum team as the game went on. Then when Rels picked things up it, it started to become a lost cause because he was making valid arguments. I think I was Krogan's number two choice on day one. It would have been interesting to see how the game played out in that case. Is it safe to assume that facists typically win by electing Hitler? Getting six facist policies seems like a really tough task to pull off. | ||
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We probably would have still been in a tough spot, but if prpl played really townie and there were a couple FFF draws, at least there would have been a path to victory | ||
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On November 17 2018 02:17 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I think getting stuck with LL is not necessarily a bad thing with Hitler but LF makes you look better. On November 16 2018 23:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah in the end it was the right choice ofc but generally speaking you should always give LF at that point though it made sense to grack because he picked up the hesitation from prplhz when he got elected. Could you two elaborate on why it's better to pass LF instead of LL as a liberal president? If there is a facist chancellor they are going to choose the option that they feel is the most beneficial to their team. Why is it better to give them an option if the information gained is essentially a WIFOM situation? It seems like it would be better to simply ensure the liberal policy gets passed. | ||
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On November 01 2018 04:46 byj wrote: Trying to hint at you knowing who Hitler is? On November 01 2018 05:00 kitaman27 wrote: Is that honestly what you think my intention was? On November 01 2018 05:32 byj wrote: It seems so out of place, so yes. On November 01 2018 06:38 kitaman27 wrote: By the way, anyone getting a bunch of timeouts with the site? tlzomg -_- Heh it was a pretty obscure reference, but does this mean anything to you? | ||
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