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Newbie Student Mafia XXIX - Page 23

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
September 12 2018 20:44 GMT
#441
I can't answer those questions without knowing how you reached the assumptions that underly them.

Why did you think damdred had a "decent chance of flipping mafia"? Again, the entire argument against him was "he said he would come back but he didn't." What about that did you find to be so persuasive?

Why do you have a townread on Vivax?
Uff Da
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 20:46 GMT
#442
Have you even read anything i have written in this game?
table for two on a tv tray
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
September 12 2018 20:49 GMT
#443
On September 13 2018 05:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like i literally came here with the time i had, saw that there was no interest in my preferred lynch (Kelsier), said i didn't want to lynch the other two of the three wagons (which i had already said even before they were actual wagons), and decided to vote for a the last possible option.

Like it's already fucking bullshit how the votes have gone all game because in a game with 3 mafia (even if RoL is mafia in this game) you are never ever gonna lynch mafia with 3 votes unless mafia is just garbage, let alone with 2 votes. Leaving my vote on Kelsier was not an option. Because i want to even have a chance of lynching mafia and in my opinion voting for Damdred was the best chance out of those three.

This is a point I was hoping you would make.

However, I'd still like to hear why you thought damdred was the best choice or why vivax is so town to you. Judging from posts other people have been making, you're supposed to be the best scumhunter left. On top of that, your posts have been relatively reasoned, so I'm wondering why you jumped onto a train with such a weak case.
Uff Da
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 20:51 GMT
#444
I have a townread on Vivax because claiming a roleblock on D2 most likely makes him town, unless mafia is 3/3 someone who normally doesn't play here, which includes you, and that also makes Vivax town (if you are mafia).

People here tend to roleblock either a blue read, or way more likely the person who they shoot (aka Koshi N1 which we know was not roleblocked). The games here tend to have at least 2 town blues, especially newbie games, so newbies get a hold of roles and possible fake or counter-claim situations aswell.

Sure it is possible mafia does not have a roleblocker at all, or that the roleblock went on Holyflare, but i don't find that likely based on above. I also know Koshi flipped town and i give merit on his read on Vivax.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 20:52 GMT
#445
On September 13 2018 05:49 Qatol wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2018 05:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like i literally came here with the time i had, saw that there was no interest in my preferred lynch (Kelsier), said i didn't want to lynch the other two of the three wagons (which i had already said even before they were actual wagons), and decided to vote for a the last possible option.

Like it's already fucking bullshit how the votes have gone all game because in a game with 3 mafia (even if RoL is mafia in this game) you are never ever gonna lynch mafia with 3 votes unless mafia is just garbage, let alone with 2 votes. Leaving my vote on Kelsier was not an option. Because i want to even have a chance of lynching mafia and in my opinion voting for Damdred was the best chance out of those three.

This is a point I was hoping you would make.

However, I'd still like to hear why you thought damdred was the best choice or why vivax is so town to you. Judging from posts other people have been making, you're supposed to be the best scumhunter left. On top of that, your posts have been relatively reasoned, so I'm wondering why you jumped onto a train with such a weak case.

I thought Vivax is town and i thought you are town so what choice do i have? I am not gonna lie, i didn't think Damdred was necessarily mafia but that was the best option i had at the time.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 20:54 GMT
#446
Like if mafia has a roleblocker there is 0% chance mafia is not using their roleblock unless the mafia is in you, Serge, RoL and Meapak, literally 0% chance.
table for two on a tv tray
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
September 12 2018 20:54 GMT
#447
uh sorry peeps I didn't realize the game started. Gimme a bit.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
September 12 2018 20:56 GMT
#448
On September 13 2018 05:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Have you even read anything i have written in this game?

Absolutely. From what I can tell, you decided vivax is confirmed town based entirely on him claiming to have been roleblocked. Is there anything else? You were at this point before that:
On September 08 2018 04:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
fuck, i try to make this very simple.
If Kaley is a smurf, she is always mafia, because the vote on me is either garbage, or she is intentionally doing nothing.

And you townread her for that. That's my problem with you Vivax.

I understand Koshi had a townread on Vivax. It was also a day 1 only read. Plus, after you commented on that, you said this:
[QUOTE]On September 09 2018 20:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
[QUOTE]On September 09 2018 20:51 Vivax wrote:
Kaley wasn't the worst of lynches considering that his raps would have remained his only contributions for the rest of the game. But I'm wary of anyone who tried to argue that the above wasn't the only reason.[/QUOTE]
I am not sure what you are trying to say here. Very easy argument to make since he flipped town, and idgaf how vary you will be of me for the rest of the game because if you are not saying what i was just above then i disagree with you.[/QUOTE
I'm surprised town!rayn would be so quick to change his mind, unless there's something I am missing.

As far as damdred goes, please explain more thoroughly, because I simply don't understand. Why damdred over rels?
Uff Da
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
September 12 2018 20:59 GMT
#449
Argh again. EBWOP:
On September 13 2018 05:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Have you even read anything i have written in this game?

Absolutely. From what I can tell, you decided vivax is confirmed town based entirely on him claiming to have been roleblocked. Is there anything else? You were at this point before that:
On September 08 2018 04:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
fuck, i try to make this very simple.
If Kaley is a smurf, she is always mafia, because the vote on me is either garbage, or she is intentionally doing nothing.

And you townread her for that. That's my problem with you Vivax.

I understand Koshi had a townread on Vivax. It was also a day 1 only read. Plus, after you commented on that, you said this:
On September 09 2018 20:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2018 20:51 Vivax wrote:
Kaley wasn't the worst of lynches considering that his raps would have remained his only contributions for the rest of the game. But I'm wary of anyone who tried to argue that the above wasn't the only reason.

I am not sure what you are trying to say here. Very easy argument to make since he flipped town, and idgaf how vary you will be of me for the rest of the game because if you are not saying what i was just above then i disagree with you.

I'm surprised town!rayn would be so quick to change his mind, unless there's something I am missing.

As far as damdred goes, please explain more thoroughly, because I simply don't understand. Why damdred over rels?
Uff Da
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
September 12 2018 21:02 GMT
#450
Put together a little matrix with all the current alive players and their current reads (as near as I can tell). I had this feeling a lot of people haven’t really given strong reads or have simply called a bunch of people town which at this point in the game I thing is a sure sign of someone trying to avoid being noticed. A quick note about this, I have not included RoL since he literally has no posts.
Kelsier
Scum: Vivax Sergio prplhz qatol
Town: NA
Meapak
Scum: Rels
Town: prplhz
Rels
Scum: qatol
Town: Sergio rayn kelsier vivax
Qatol
Scum: vivax kelsier?
Town: NA
Rayn
Scum: kelsier
Town: Sergio Qatol vivax? Prplhz
Sergio
Scum: vivax
Town: NA
Vivax
Scum: Qatol?
Town: Sergio MZ
Prplhz
Scum: Qatol
Town: NA

Firstly, if you disagree with how I’ve classified your reads please let me know, it’s always good to nail down people on what they’re thinking. Secondly, a few things jump out at me. Rels has called a lot of people town and only has one scum read, Qatol, who half the remaining players have as scum so it’s a very safe read. I’m pretty certain Rels is scum at this point when pared with the other analysis I did. Another person who jumps out is Rayn. Along with Rels, he’s got a lot of town reads and more importantly they share Sergio as a town read. Sergio has been fantastically useless, has asked a loooot of filler questions, and has only one claim to fame which is a scum read on vivax. Rayn has Kelsier as a scum read but hasn’t really done much to push that. Vivax is also worth noting because he has the easy scumread on qatol but also has a townread on Sergio as well. So after looking at all this, what I’m left with is Rels: 100% scum. Sergio: 90% scum, Rayn: 70% Vivax: 50% (only scum if one of the other 3 is somehow town).

As a quick explanation for my thought process, what I look for right now are people pushing easy reads as scum, and people who are quick to call many people town. Scum push easy reads so they can blend in, which is why I'm not a huge fan of the Qatol votes, regardless of the validity of the case, if a lot of people are doing it you can be sure there are a few scum trying to slip under the radar. This is a nail in the coffin for Rels. Rayn has called a lot of people town, but most importantly Sergio who has done nothing to warrant this.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 21:05 GMT
#451
I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this:
+ Show Spoiler +
On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.

can you understand why?

Damdred over Rels simply because there were votes on Damdred and no votes on Rels. I think Rels' "blue hunt case" is another ridiculous one because why would anyone as mafia ever kill someone, then say the kill was because of them being obvious blue, and then openly admit they figured out they are blue. Like yeah.... that's not how mafia operates.
table for two on a tv tray
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
September 12 2018 21:05 GMT
#452
Actually reading the last few pages I missed while writing that is starting to make me wonder if a Rels/Rayn/Vivax team isn't out of the question.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
September 12 2018 21:07 GMT
#453
On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this:
+ Show Spoiler +
On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.

can you understand why?

Damdred over Rels simply because there were votes on Damdred and no votes on Rels. I think Rels' "blue hunt case" is another ridiculous one because why would anyone as mafia ever kill someone, then say the kill was because of them being obvious blue, and then openly admit they figured out they are blue. Like yeah.... that's not how mafia operates.

Hmmm

Damdred had 1 vote and Rels had 1 vote
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 21:07 GMT
#454
On September 13 2018 06:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Rayn
Scum: kelsier
Town: Sergio Qatol vivax? Prplhz

I have you as town and rels as mafia.
idk what qatol is rn because i think this very simple argument has been blown out of proportion by him.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 21:09 GMT
#455
On September 13 2018 06:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this:
+ Show Spoiler +
On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.

can you understand why?

Damdred over Rels simply because there were votes on Damdred and no votes on Rels. I think Rels' "blue hunt case" is another ridiculous one because why would anyone as mafia ever kill someone, then say the kill was because of them being obvious blue, and then openly admit they figured out they are blue. Like yeah.... that's not how mafia operates.

Hmmm

Damdred had 1 vote and Rels had 1 vote

While i did not know you were voting for Rels (i literally didn't have time on phone) that's not true.
table for two on a tv tray
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
September 12 2018 21:11 GMT
#456
Okay, let me see if I'm understanding everything right regarding your position on Vivax.

1. Koshi's support of him means something to you.

2. You also saw him claim roleblock despite not being under too much pressure (I happen to disagree, considering I had already accused him, Kelsier was leaning that direction, and sergio hadn't backed off on him, but that isn't the point). You believe this claim to have been genuine because of the following logic. Because Koshi's vigi shot went through, Koshi obviously wasn't roleblocked. Nobody else has claimed to have been roleblocked. That means that, assuming there was a roleblock, it would have to have gone on either HF or Vivax.

Is there anything he has said, other than the roleblock claim, that makes you think he's town?
Uff Da
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 21:13 GMT
#457
yes
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 21:17 GMT
#458
[QUOTE]On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
[/QUOTE
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 12 2018 21:18 GMT
#459
You of all people should realise why this is never a mafia post....
table for two on a tv tray
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
September 12 2018 21:22 GMT
#460
Hey Qatol,

Still catching up, but can you explain your thoughts on the Day 1 lynch? I figured you just made an accusation to generate other reads but you never changed your vote and let the lynch go through.. figured you would throw out the accusation to try to gauge reactions.

Maybe when I finish reading I'll see more I just though it was odd. It seemed like a move to create pressure and force people out and to comment and it seems as though you didn't change votes which would indicate that you were either content with your read based off some poem/summary thing, or you didn't see anything else acting odd.

In hindsight I'm curious to what you gained through that while I continue reading. I'm at work so It's going to be a bit sporadic as stuff comes up.
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