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Can’t be here for long unfortunately. So a few quick thoughts.
1) I need to check in on Qatol some more but I currently have him as scum
2) I have Kelsier as a relatively strong town read
3) RoL actually posted, wow
4) I like Meapak’s post, he is thinking about the game with a townie mindset though I don’t find his conclusions convincing. That is: his case(s) put him in the town column but they don’t convince me.
If I’m alive tomorrow I’m going to spend some time looking at voting patterns and how wagons developed. Unless we have protective blue roles we need to lynch scum tomorrow
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Okay you posted again, pointing out a specific statement from Vivax.
On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
can you understand why?
Please explain it to me. I tried to work it out, but my evaluation of the statement falls apart at the point where Vivax talks about a "Qatol made decision," considering the mafia didn't make a decision about HF, other than maybe roleblocking him.
Unless you are pointing out that the incorrect logic is a reason to trust Vivax?
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On September 13 2018 06:24 Qatol wrote:Okay you posted again, pointing out a specific statement from Vivax. Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
can you understand why? Please explain it to me. I tried to work it out, but my evaluation of the statement falls apart at the point where Vivax talks about a "Qatol made decision," considering the mafia didn't make a decision about HF, other than maybe roleblocking him. Unless you are pointing out that the incorrect logic is a reason to trust Vivax?
You think mafia!Vivax comes here on D2 and tells "holyflare night kill points towards Qatol" when, if he is mafia, he clearly knows that's not what happened? Like he makes an utterly "bullshit case" when he knows every single person in the game knows is bullshit if they have just looked at the day post....
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On September 13 2018 06:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Put together a little matrix with all the current alive players and their current reads (as near as I can tell). I had this feeling a lot of people haven’t really given strong reads or have simply called a bunch of people town which at this point in the game I thing is a sure sign of someone trying to avoid being noticed. A quick note about this, I have not included RoL since he literally has no posts.
Kelsier
Scum: Vivax Sergio prplhz qatol
Town: NA
Meapak
Scum: Rels
Town: prplhz
Rels
Scum: qatol
Town: Sergio rayn kelsier vivax
Qatol
Scum: vivax kelsier?
Town: NA
Rayn
Scum: kelsier
Town: Sergio Qatol vivax? Prplhz
Sergio
Scum: vivax
Town: NA
Vivax
Scum: Qatol?
Town: Sergio MZ
Prplhz
Scum: Qatol
Town: NA
Firstly, if you disagree with how I’ve classified your reads please let me know, it’s always good to nail down people on what they’re thinking. Secondly, a few things jump out at me. Rels has called a lot of people town and only has one scum read, Qatol, who half the remaining players have as scum so it’s a very safe read. I’m pretty certain Rels is scum at this point when pared with the other analysis I did. Another person who jumps out is Rayn. Along with Rels, he’s got a lot of town reads and more importantly they share Sergio as a town read. Sergio has been fantastically useless, has asked a loooot of filler questions, and has only one claim to fame which is a scum read on vivax. Rayn has Kelsier as a scum read but hasn’t really done much to push that. Vivax is also worth noting because he has the easy scumread on qatol but also has a townread on Sergio as well. So after looking at all this, what I’m left with is Rels: 100% scum. Sergio: 90% scum, Rayn: 70% Vivax: 50% (only scum if one of the other 3 is somehow town).
As a quick explanation for my thought process, what I look for right now are people pushing easy reads as scum, and people who are quick to call many people town. Scum push easy reads so they can blend in, which is why I'm not a huge fan of the Qatol votes, regardless of the validity of the case, if a lot of people are doing it you can be sure there are a few scum trying to slip under the radar. This is a nail in the coffin for Rels. Rayn has called a lot of people town, but most importantly Sergio who has done nothing to warrant this.
I don't have a scumread on kelsier. I do have one on prplhz. I'm also willing to vote Rels in lylo. I'm not going to provide my townreads unless they are under serious pressure, because I think it just hands the mafia information about the consensus most trusted players.
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Incorrect logic does not make anyone mafia per se, but like... If Vivax is mafia he HAS TO KNOW what really happened during the night because when you are mafia night is your time, you kill people at night. Do you remember a time when you didn't know who you nightkilled when posting the next day as mafia?
Sure you can argue "he is faking" but you can also argue "kitaman made as all town and this is jsut a bastard game" and i think that's almost evenly likely.....
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On September 13 2018 06:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
can you understand why? Damdred over Rels simply because there were votes on Damdred and no votes on Rels. I think Rels' "blue hunt case" is another ridiculous one because why would anyone as mafia ever kill someone, then say the kill was because of them being obvious blue, and then openly admit they figured out they are blue. Like yeah.... that's not how mafia operates. Hmmm Damdred had 1 vote and Rels had 1 vote While i did not know you were voting for Rels (i literally didn't have time on phone) that's not true.
I mean it was in the voting thread, surely you would have been able to read the thread on your phone before you voted.
On September 12 2018 00:45 Vivax wrote:
##Vote Damdred
On September 12 2018 02:16 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
##Vote: Rels
On September 12 2018 06:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
##vote Damdred
Vivax was the first vote on damdred, I voted for rels 2 hours later, you were the second vote on damdred almost 5 hours after I had voted.
On September 12 2018 06:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:I can vote for damdred, or rels. I wont be voting for vivax or qatol. Unless kelsier is happening, which doesnt seem likely rn. I hate to play when i dont have enough time. 
I was the only reason rels was brought up at this point so clearly you had seen my analysis and it kinda calls into question why you'd say something like While i did not know you were voting for Rels
The timestamps are not lining up for your story, and actually going back through your filter to that time again reminded me of this post right hereOn September 12 2018 06:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Rels had the dumb "rayn not interacting with me" post which doesnt make any sense since every read he made was exactly what my reads were at the time -- so why should i interact woth him when he is voting for who i want to lynch and he 100% agrees with my reads?
I didn't like rels for that post but now I'm starting to wonder if it wasn't an attempt to distance himself from you if you two are scum together. The fact is, your timeline doesn't line up. You were a crucial vote on damdred, and now it seems like you're lying about why you picked damdred over rels.
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On September 13 2018 06:30 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Put together a little matrix with all the current alive players and their current reads (as near as I can tell). I had this feeling a lot of people haven’t really given strong reads or have simply called a bunch of people town which at this point in the game I thing is a sure sign of someone trying to avoid being noticed. A quick note about this, I have not included RoL since he literally has no posts.
Kelsier
Scum: Vivax Sergio prplhz qatol
Town: NA
Meapak
Scum: Rels
Town: prplhz
Rels
Scum: qatol
Town: Sergio rayn kelsier vivax
Qatol
Scum: vivax kelsier?
Town: NA
Rayn
Scum: kelsier
Town: Sergio Qatol vivax? Prplhz
Sergio
Scum: vivax
Town: NA
Vivax
Scum: Qatol?
Town: Sergio MZ
Prplhz
Scum: Qatol
Town: NA
Firstly, if you disagree with how I’ve classified your reads please let me know, it’s always good to nail down people on what they’re thinking. Secondly, a few things jump out at me. Rels has called a lot of people town and only has one scum read, Qatol, who half the remaining players have as scum so it’s a very safe read. I’m pretty certain Rels is scum at this point when pared with the other analysis I did. Another person who jumps out is Rayn. Along with Rels, he’s got a lot of town reads and more importantly they share Sergio as a town read. Sergio has been fantastically useless, has asked a loooot of filler questions, and has only one claim to fame which is a scum read on vivax. Rayn has Kelsier as a scum read but hasn’t really done much to push that. Vivax is also worth noting because he has the easy scumread on qatol but also has a townread on Sergio as well. So after looking at all this, what I’m left with is Rels: 100% scum. Sergio: 90% scum, Rayn: 70% Vivax: 50% (only scum if one of the other 3 is somehow town).
As a quick explanation for my thought process, what I look for right now are people pushing easy reads as scum, and people who are quick to call many people town. Scum push easy reads so they can blend in, which is why I'm not a huge fan of the Qatol votes, regardless of the validity of the case, if a lot of people are doing it you can be sure there are a few scum trying to slip under the radar. This is a nail in the coffin for Rels. Rayn has called a lot of people town, but most importantly Sergio who has done nothing to warrant this. I don't have a scumread on kelsier. I do have one on prplhz. I'm also willing to vote Rels in lylo. I'm not going to provide my townreads unless they are under serious pressure, because I think it just hands the mafia information about the consensus most trusted players.
I don't want town reads lol, that was part of the point of this post, I want scum reads.
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On September 13 2018 06:32 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:On September 13 2018 06:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
can you understand why? Damdred over Rels simply because there were votes on Damdred and no votes on Rels. I think Rels' "blue hunt case" is another ridiculous one because why would anyone as mafia ever kill someone, then say the kill was because of them being obvious blue, and then openly admit they figured out they are blue. Like yeah.... that's not how mafia operates. Hmmm Damdred had 1 vote and Rels had 1 vote While i did not know you were voting for Rels (i literally didn't have time on phone) that's not true. I mean it was in the voting thread, surely you would have been able to read the thread on your phone before you voted. Vivax was the first vote on damdred, I voted for rels 2 hours later, you were the second vote on damdred almost 5 hours after I had voted. Show nested quote +On September 12 2018 06:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:I can vote for damdred, or rels. I wont be voting for vivax or qatol. Unless kelsier is happening, which doesnt seem likely rn. I hate to play when i dont have enough time. I was the only reason rels was brought up at this point so clearly you had seen my analysis and it kinda calls into question why you'd say something like The timestamps are not lining up for your story, and actually going back through your filter to that time again reminded me of this post right here Show nested quote +On September 12 2018 06:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Rels had the dumb "rayn not interacting with me" post which doesnt make any sense since every read he made was exactly what my reads were at the time -- so why should i interact woth him when he is voting for who i want to lynch and he 100% agrees with my reads? I didn't like rels for that post but now I'm starting to wonder if it wasn't an attempt to distance himself from you if you two are scum together. The fact is, your timeline doesn't line up. You were a crucial vote on damdred, and now it seems like you're lying about why you picked damdred over rels.
first of all purplehaze has voted for Damdred right fucking before my vote on him, so if you wanna discuss someone being mafia because they missed a vote in the voting thread, you can also call yourself scum.
Yeah, i really missed your vote on Rels, Rels was discussed of being mafia by some people and that's why i thought he was a "viable candidate". I really thought he had no votes (and even if i knew he had one why the fuck would i vote for him over Damdred who had two)?
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I ma sorry i missed your vote 4 hours before mine in a hurry.
You however missed this:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/jov8M3G.jpg)
????????????????????
for real?
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On September 13 2018 06:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:24 Qatol wrote:Okay you posted again, pointing out a specific statement from Vivax. On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
can you understand why? Please explain it to me. I tried to work it out, but my evaluation of the statement falls apart at the point where Vivax talks about a "Qatol made decision," considering the mafia didn't make a decision about HF, other than maybe roleblocking him. Unless you are pointing out that the incorrect logic is a reason to trust Vivax? You think mafia!Vivax comes here on D2 and tells "holyflare night kill points towards Qatol" when, if he is mafia, he clearly knows that's not what happened? Like he makes an utterly "bullshit case" when he knows every single person in the game knows is bullshit if they have just looked at the day post....
Okay, fair point. Clearly I'm not seeing the forest for the trees on this one, and I'm willing to reconsider vivax based on what happens tonight.
If accusing Vivax isn't productive, then let's talk about prplhz. He latched onto Vivax pretty hard on day 2. In fact, he followed Vivax onto damdred after he made the argument you mentioned and his justification for latching onto Vivax was:
On September 11 2018 05:20 prplhz wrote:
Generally I find some people who
1) Are good at finding scum
2) Are town
And then I sheep them. That's really how I do. I rarely do a lot of analysis because I'm really not very good at it. But I wrote a few points on you that I myself find to be something I would expect more from scum.
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I mean:
I mean it was in the voting thread, surely you would have been able to read the thread before you posted that.
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I'll summarize what I've been trying to get at over the last few pages. I think rayn tried to rewrite history while explaining his damdred vote when he said
Damdred over Rels simply because there were votes on Damdred and no votes on Rels.
Vivax's case against rels was pretty bad, so post hoc rayn doesn't try to justify his vote except by saying there were no other options. This is where I think he is lying. It's hard for me to believe that he came into the thread 4 hours after I posted my rels analysis and say he never saw it and then bring up rels as a lynch option when he had previously not even mentioned rels. Furthermore, when he went into the voting thread, my vote was literally 4 posts above his. I find it incredibly improbable for him to have gone into the voting thread and have missed the D2 vote count thread which should vivax on damdred and me on rels. Actually the more I think about this the more convinced I am rayn is trying to cover his ass.
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On September 13 2018 06:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:I ma sorry i missed your vote 4 hours before mine in a hurry. You however missed this: ???????????????????? for real?
On September 12 2018 03:23 kitaman27 wrote:
Day 2 Vote Count
Vivax [1]: Qatol Qatol [1]: prplhz KelsierSC [1]: raynpelikoneet Damdred [1]: Vivax Rels [1]: Meapak_Ziphh Sergiovan [0]: KelsierSCNot Voting [5]: Rels, RebirthOfLeGendD, Sergiovan, Damdred, KelsierSC
Vivax is currently the lynch.
The deadline is Tuesday, Sep 11 10:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in .
If there is an error in the vote count, which there probably is, let me know.
This was two posts above yours.
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says the guy who missed purplehaze's vote directly above mine.
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fun fact, i do not read the voting thread. i go there to vote.
i have absolutely no reason to even lie about this if i was mafia, because it is true.
i have always criticised voting threads because they are useless, they are only to help the host and make it harder for players (when people vote in thread and not in voting thread or vice versa).
so yeah, i do not read the voting thread. you can think i am mafia for that, idgaf.
you seem to be reading the voting thread so why did you miss the vote directly above mine, and even made a case on me based on that?
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On September 13 2018 06:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Incorrect logic does not make anyone mafia per se, but like... If Vivax is mafia he HAS TO KNOW what really happened during the night because when you are mafia night is your time, you kill people at night. Do you remember a time when you didn't know who you nightkilled when posting the next day as mafia?
Sure you can argue "he is faking" but you can also argue "kitaman made as all town and this is jsut a bastard game" and i think that's almost evenly likely.....
I've only been mafia once, and we had a prominent team member (L) who didn't know the night kills; this was before quicktopics were used. That being said, I understand your point. I just wish you had made it earlier. I will back off of Vivax for now.
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On September 13 2018 06:44 raynpelikoneet wrote:
says the guy who missed purplehaze's vote directly above mine.
This really doesn't change the fact that rels had votes on him. And it doesn't stop that voting for someone just because they already have votes on them is an absolutely terrible strategy. If you actually thought rels was scum, as you seem to say now, then why didn't you vote for him? It seems like you just went for the expedient lynch and are now backpedaling.
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whatever i dont even think you are mafia because this is too dumb to be scum....
i will get back to you qatol when i get out of my annoyance. which means a cigarette.
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On September 13 2018 06:47 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Incorrect logic does not make anyone mafia per se, but like... If Vivax is mafia he HAS TO KNOW what really happened during the night because when you are mafia night is your time, you kill people at night. Do you remember a time when you didn't know who you nightkilled when posting the next day as mafia?
Sure you can argue "he is faking" but you can also argue "kitaman made as all town and this is jsut a bastard game" and i think that's almost evenly likely..... I've only been mafia once, and we had a prominent team member (L) who didn't know the night kills; this was before quicktopics were used. That being said, I understand your point. I just wish you had made it earlier. I will back off of Vivax for now.
I didn't read that post, or at least that part, until N2. So you should discount that for my D2 read on Vivax.
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rayn and meapak, I think you've reached the point of diminishing returns. Is either of you seriously pushing for the other as the lynch target for day 3 anyways? Remember, we have to coordinate our votes or the town loses.
On a side note, rayn, could you please call him prplhz and not purplehaze? It's hard to search your filter for your posts on him.
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EPT
