EPTWhen I look back through Vivax's filter, a lot of the cases I thought were analytical and looked good look much worse in retrospect. Him going after Rels for example seemed like him being really thick and for wahtever reason not acknowledging that Rels was just posting reads as he went along with the thread.
Liquidmania Qualifier #2 - Page 8
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
When I look back through Vivax's filter, a lot of the cases I thought were analytical and looked good look much worse in retrospect. Him going after Rels for example seemed like him being really thick and for wahtever reason not acknowledging that Rels was just posting reads as he went along with the thread. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I have played with him a few times before, and from what I remember, this is uncharacteristic for him as mafia or town. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
a) Vivax didn't make the most pro-mafia voting moves I've ever seen, and b) railing on Vivax didn't make me feel buddy-buddy with you Questions I still have for you are: 1) Why so lazy? 2) Why the vote on Damdred, when you were clearly suspicious of a bunch of other people for non-coinflippy reasons? 3) Was I really your only scumread leading up to the lynch? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 18 2017 03:28 Holyflare wrote: but I told you it's completely characteristic of his town game and even explained I've had the same reservation beforehand in another game but then you went and meta read slam instead...? why? Oh. Then I completely missed that. It's hard to take the posts of someone you're tunneling seriously, ya know? | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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I'm always going to try to read you based on the quality of your analysis and opinions, and not how you can answer a bunch of softball questions I throw at you. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I feel like there should be enough information in the thread to draw more concrete conclusions about Slam/Onegu/BM/Damdred other than "i need to talk to them more". I'll take your word on that similar town Damdred game to mean that his early D1 play was non-alignment indicative, but I'll need you to link that game to me sooner rather than later. As for Vivax... on the one hand, I feel like it's a very attention drawing move and therefore is unlikely mafia. On the other hand, it's objectively such a huge pro-mafia move, and there are some contradictions I cannot make sense of from a town perspective. For example, him thinking you're confirmed mafia (currently), yet being happy moving his vote off you. T I still hated how you played D1, and I think it was very pro mafia to just let a bunch of suspicions float out there. Vivax being standoffish answering questions doesn't mean much. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Before I start filter diving myself, I need to sort this out: On January 17 2017 23:34 Rels wrote: This never comes back. It's a kinda weird thing to think, but I could accept town!HF taking that into account for solving the game. BUT IT NEVER COMES BACK. He votes Damdred after that. He talks about Damdred without talking about LS: It is the thing "he hates the most by far" and he's forgetting it afterwards. 1) Reading me as mafia for ignoring that "Damdred never reads LS as town when he's mafia" thing is pretty bleh. How does that even make me mafia? It's a very convoluted reason in the first place, since it doesn't preclude Damdred from just doing something new. 2) How do you vote Damdred in spite of this information, which suggests that you were reading Damdred as town for said wierd meta-information thing? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 18 2017 04:34 Holyflare wrote: so let me try and break down this damdred thing so I can get into your head: 1. you thought damdred was scummy because he was sheeping everything I said 2. you thought damdred was scummy because he had no scum reads or posts that said anything 3. you thought damdred was a coin flip instead because he gave up 4. you thought damdred wasn't scummy because nobody was pushing anywhere else? 5. you jump to me being mafia because I posted a summary with no follow up correct? This is how my mind was last night leading up to the case I posted on you. 1) I was reading Damdred as scummy because he was a non-entity. His reads seemed to shift based on what you were arguing at the time. In my head during this time is a waffle-fest between a) that I may as well push him to be mafia because something needs to be done in thread and b) overall, I was very sympathetic towards where his reads were because that "lost, I can't find reasons to scumread people" feeling is what I was feeling. 2) When I voted Damdred, I was in this "waffle." I felt that it was the best place for my vote in both pressure and not having a better place to put it. 3) When Damdred gets less active, I begin to get more coinflippy, and leaning more town. As I mentioned before, I expect more of a self-preservation instinct from mafia, and it didn't seem like Damdred had it. 4) Re-reading the thread last night, I was at a loss of what to do. There was no information in the thread, the level of discussion in the town was shit, and it seemed really off that so much suspicion would be piled on Damdred without a peep from the mafia team (if Damdred was mafia of course). 5) Re-reading the thread, I finally arrived at you. I wasn't planning on reading you very seriously until later in the game, because I thought the most reliable way to catch you was through the quality of your analysis and the objectives you were pushing. I arrived at these three posts: On January 16 2017 23:43 Holyflare wrote: Waste of time tbh. Hapa iffy Slam iffy Damdred still not vindicated but don't hate after seeing the light Rels pending but didn't actually mind his posts Vivax cool Ls mediocre but his damdred lust seems legitimate for now so dunno what to make of it Bm who? Onegu iffy content promise into nothing Shape up scrubs On January 17 2017 05:08 Holyflare wrote: I'm at a bit of an impasse because I think there could actually be too many scum :D On January 17 2017 05:14 Holyflare wrote: I'm really, really, really not a fan of LS since he's done shit all and then went on and on about how he NEEDED damdred's read on me/hapa to do anything and then just said fair enough and did absolutely nothing when damdred did post something relevant then I hate that damdred/rels KEEP making these lazy meta ls reads that aren't even true and then when presented with new information that should update their reads they don't even bother looking into it or fact checking it and damdred is playing lazzyyyy then I hate onegu's "catch up" but I don't know if that's extreme bias because I despise a million times over people that do page by page catch ups instead of just a summary but regardless his catch up that he's done so far is shit then there's Hapa who is seemingly calling out Onegu/damdred and even voting Damdred for EXACTLY what he was criticised of doing (having no reads, not pushing much) but Hapa doesn't acknowledge that LS has said that Damdred has never hard town read LS as mafia damdred: which I think I hate by far the most I can usually identify the alignment of more experienced players by how they think about the game. These three posts were suspicious to me, because it was the opposite of how I was thinking. I was having trouble finding mafia candidates. You were seemingly full of them. The lists also read as an attempt to shovel suspicion at multiple players without taking any stances of your own. My conclusion was that I thought you were vocal, but you weren't taking any risks or sticking your neck out with your play. Ergo, a mafia archtype for a more experienced player. I waffled on posting the case quite a bit, because I wasn't sure I could swing a lynch on you. Ultimately, I decided that it was going to be good for town discussion whether or not I could swing the lynch, and posted it. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 18 2017 04:47 Holyflare wrote: all right hapa I'm gonna try a thing where I treat you like confirmed town and I hope you can do the same to me and I'll try and figure out the game from that perspective it seems best because I don't handle criticism well  I can't treat you as confirmed town, but I can take a fresh look at the game. At the end of the day, I made a Day 1 case on you in a super inactive town. Now, there's much more information to parse through. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 18 2017 04:16 Holyflare wrote: it's not just one game it's many damdred games Can you link some of these? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Vivax Onegu Holyflare BillMurray Slam Damdred Rels --------- The 3 in the middle are not so much null, as I haven't filtered them in detail yet. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mostly scummy, with a small chance of derp townie. Why he's mafia: I've posted quite a bit on Vivax. The strongest points I believe are as follows: 1) Vivax thinks myself and HF are mafia. It does not make sense to try to swing the lynch away from HF at the end of Day 1 knowing this. 2) Vivax reminded town that no lynching was a disaster. However, his move to lynch me increased the chance of a no lynch substantially. He didn't push town much to lynch me at all. He very calmly voted me, didn't lobby for consolidation, and stated: On January 18 2017 02:24 Vivax wrote: No shenannies. I didn't sign up to discuss shit for 48 hours and then throw it all away in 5 minutes 3) Vivax reminded town that no lynching was a disaster. Yet he calls myself and holyflare mafia for last-minute switching to LS, when it is clear as day it was necessary to avoid a no lynch. 4) His move to me at the end of the day used pretty shit reasoning compared to the reasons why he thought HF was mafia. Why he could be derp townie: His votes can be viewed as very attention seeking and risky, ergo town. He was being town-read pretty early on and strongly by most of the thread. Why I think on-balance, he is mafia: There's just no good town explanation for his vote shenanigans. I've listed why above. In addition, I think a lot of the reasons to call him town in the early game fall apart under closer scrutiny. 1) People read him as town for his interaction with me. Mafia can defend themselves against an early D1 case. I think it's pretty null here. 2) People thought he was "reading deep" into people's filters. I disagree enitrely on a second look. Vivax was largely looking through filters and being extremely difficult to people about non-scum tells. The entire Rels/Vivax exchange looks like Vivax nitpicked something in his filter and was extremely obstinate about it for way too long. The more I think about his case on Holyflare, the more it begins to form a pattern. 3) A lot of Vivax's analysis is very "narrow." His read on Damdred for example is very shallow. Useless = mafia. He's ignoring a lot of the good points that Damdred could be town (thread atmosphere, very genuine thought process, etc). He's not really looking for the totality of people's actions. He's diving through filters and trying to find individual contradictions. There's no weighing, balancing, or critical thinking. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Partly scummy, partly lynchbait. From how the lynch went down, I'd argue Onegu looks the worst. Why Onegu is mafia: On January 17 2017 12:32 Onegu wrote: Rels is my biggest read right now. The call out on damdred seems really forced and fake. His read on me seemed fake. Then when called out on it he went from giving me a town read down into scummy would lynch pile. Honestly I wouldnt lynch you or HF today. I normally stray away from trying to get a read on him early. Because when I do I am usually wrong but when we get to lylo and he is still around I can usually get a read on him either by does he have a reason to be alive and if he does have a reason does his shit make sense. I would lynch you over him at this point and it hurts me to say this. Not really sure how between slams first posts and my vote on him did he do anything useful and yet you think he looks ok and my vote on him is scummy. But again I would prefer not to lynch you or holyflare day 1. I really believe trying to get reads on you day 1 are pointless. I would never lynch Vivax. He is by far my top town at this point. He saw the same thing I saw about rels. LS/Damdred I am fairly meh on. Really think rels is a much better lynch over them. Also for rels calling out slam do something seemed like a way for him to try to gain town cred for calling out a player who wasnt doing much even though it is slam and he plays wilder than I do game from game. Rels knows this. ##Unvote ##Vote Rels Firstly, this case is a very typical mafia case. It looks all nice and pretty, but it doesn't hold up to a closer look. The entire post reads as a way for Onegu to take a stance, without actually providing any useful things to town. 1) The analysis is useless. His case boils down to "I think Rels play looks forced", which is unhelpful to say the least. It's a completely subjective tell. Hell, 75% of the post talks about people other than his main scum-read. 2) Onegu talks about Vivax being top town, and "seeing the same thing as Vivax saw about Rels." But it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to do this. Vivax's case on Rels was based on not understanding that Rels was actively catching up in thread and updating his reads while he was posting. Onegu did the same thing this game, and mentions that he does it frequently. Yet for some reason, Onegu doesn't understand what's wrong with vivax's read. 3) The timing is weird. It's a very typical mafia play to bomb a case on a player that no one is really talking about to create chaos. At this point, I had just posted my case on Holyflare, and HF/Vivax votes were on Damdred. On January 18 2017 02:11 Onegu wrote: Would let you lynch me over HF. I think he is a coin flip at best and the chance that he is town and wins it for me would give him mvp and me the second most points for saving him. Im willing to risk it. This is just a weird martyr post that feels very forced. It's like he's trying to play up his desire not to lynch HF, knowing full well that he himself (Onegu) wasn't at risk of being lynched. Why he could be Lynchbait? Onegu is notoriously hard to read, and somewhat of an inactive player. He also has molded his playstyle to be unreadable on meta, or so he has said in the past. On balance? Mafia Onegu seems to be pushing mafia objectives. His push of Rels was very useless. The Holyflare martyr stuff seems very fake. It's one of those things that looks like you're sticking your neck out, but you're really not. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mostly townie, with a slight chance of demotivated scum. Why townie? Genuine thought process. You can tell he's lost, confused, and doesn't have a lot of time to play. On January 17 2017 02:03 Damdred wrote: Sure you do if you read what I say Town: LS Vivax HF Gut feeling: Slam not in any order Null leaning: Happa Rels Onegu BM I probably could move hapa to town if i really squinted but i'd rather him squirm under the ire of the storm. This list looks bad at first glance, but who the actual fuck does this as mafia with town sentiment against them? Damdred is lost, and is not trying to overcompensate by forcing a scum-read. Usually scum will feel some pressure to look good here. This post also highlights another major point: lack of self-preservation instinct. It doesn't seem like Damdred is trying to look good. He's just posting what he's thinking, and that is extremely townie. Why he could be demotivated mafia... Demotivated mafia aren't going to have a self preservation instinct. He could see some pressure on him, and give up right away expecting to die. You could read his end of the day sheep of Vivax as Damdred actually being around and pushing mafia objectives, but playing the pity card. On Balance... town I think the thought process is very hard to fake. I sympathize a lot, because that is how I was feeling in-game. I also highly value lack of self-preservation instinct very highly. Generally scum at least feel obligated to try to please their teammates. There is zero sense that Damdred is trying to look good or please anyone. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mostly townie, with a slight chance of exceptionally good mafia game Why townie? Activity. Very open about his mindset. If you read his filter (especially towards the end of day chaos), you can see what enters his mind in real time. It's very genuine and townie. I liked his switch off of tunneling me into tunneling HF. It shows a healthy mix of confirmation bias against me (townie trait), followed by critically reading Vivax's posts to make a conclusion on HF, followed by not really taking my alignment for granted. Why exceptionally good mafia game? Rels is an excellent mafia player. See Liquimania #1 for a great example. He is definitely capable of faking emotion and looking like a normal townie through the chaos of the day. It seems like he was caught in this game more because of pushing mafia objectives than some scumtell he was giving off. On balance... town I don't see him faking the waffle and the productivity to this extent as mafia. Any case I could make on him would be entirely based on paranoia, not facts. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 18 2017 05:54 Holyflare wrote: oh my god so everything I found you scummy for and you not evaluating damdred at all and him looking just like you but you scum reading him and you now think he's town for that exact reason??????????????????????????? Exactly. I think I was looking at Damdred the completely wrong way. I was framing his actions as useless, which was extremely superficial. In there is a very genuine thought process, and I've talked about this with the thread several times since I've stopped voting him. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
When I take the context of his play (unsure, waffly, not confident), his behavior begins to make a lot of sense. If you don't have confidence, you are going to latch on to people who do, subconsciously or not. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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