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On December 10 2016 15:36 Tumblewood wrote:
I'm not lynching you today, not with an absolute certainty on the board. but consider that, if you're town, then exo has to be scum and must be playing a pretty damn good game.
Huh, you might actually care. You could lynch Ray today, and die tonight, and leave us to our devices. But you care (or are pretending to.)
If cop!TW and town!cakepie, it's either ExO or NU with Ray. Don't discount NU with Ray. It's plausible that the following:
- You were selected as D1 target based on N0, and Ray vs NU was a distancing move where Ray has to lynch you to flip you scum and scum NU by association. But we could copcheck you as town and Ray would safely disengage NU. Or we mislynch you and they win. In that sense, Ray v NU isn't even a bus.
- EoD1 may have had NU waiting to hammer you if ExO or H1 voted.
- your crumbs were found, and scum actually opted not to kill cop!TW because:
- they get to kill conftown in H1
- you were scumread D1 by H1, me, and ?ExO?
- with me going after TW+ExO, I'm the weakest link who will mislynch you
- in any event, NU is sent into thread to vote you and get stupidcake to vote you and then Ray hammers
- scum puzzles over my claim for a bit and then figures out I fucked up. Ray formulates his copclaim.
- NU voting ray is ballsy, but they know I will tell NU to unvote.
- This requires NU to be playing very well, but this is the scenario where he has Ray as a very experienced scumbuddy who can guide him.
So you need to consider both ExO and NU.
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I dozed off while pondering scum!(CR+ExO) for TW. My head is clearer now that I can stop feeling so sorry for myself. Still very sleep deprived but determined to do what I can.
TW is in a comfortable spot because both cop!TW and scum!TW has the same optimal play today: lynch Ray.
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For scum!TW, this was the plan all along and it just got ridiculously easier because cakepie is an idiot.
It was originally going to be a bit of an effort at least -- TW+ExO in concert, Act 3: working on NU while fighting against town!cake who will have to untunnel NU from scumming Ray. [Act 1: nolynch. Act 2: N1 setting up for D2]
I regret that I only had time during N1 to get CR to untunnel NU. I had just about enough time to squeeze in a post urging NU to pleasepleaseplease reconsider CR. I need a NU who is willing to let me walk him through the hinking processes of an older cohort of players, and untunnel him off CR.
Scum!TW is good. I misunderestimated the team because scum!ExO kept being so derp.
--
For cop!TW, he obviously lynches Ray, but should be interested in helping the last three players {NU ExO cake} figure out the game.
So, he's definitely reaching out. But is he really sincerely reaching out to everyone?
I don't feel like he's being sincere with me. Based on the checks he has, he doesn't seem to be giving me a fair chance to work through cop!TW + idiotVTcake scenarios with me.
I put together a scenario for scum?(CR+NU) but he quickly dismisses it, this forces me to move on to CR+ExO -- which I was going to do next anyway. But I ran into even greater difficulty on that scenario.
Dozed off while trying to wrap my head around it. Here's what I had drafted:
+ Show Spoiler +Discarding the association based parts of ExO w/ TW scumteam, there are still the things that make ExO standalone scum, such as, quickly off the top of my head
- #107 ExO's very forced scumread on TW that had to be binned
- #112 Baiting cop claim
- Very hard to pin ExO's position all of D1, or to answer questions (esp re: TW)
- Lack of content in filter that reflects what he says his read progression is (swinging wildly on TW)
But trying to make a scum!(CR+ExO) for TW is a very awkward exercise.
- ExO is prepositioned N0 to go into D1 arguing for 100% cop claim
- CR does his own thing with TW+NU
- #96~#100 really don't make sense through (CR+ExO) goggles.
- ExO knows TW is town but tries to make a forced case and blame cakecalix
- #112 baiting cop ...
... and I halt, because I start to see that it's going to be a lot of ExO being scum by himself, and very little ExO being scum with CR.
Cop!TW happily pushes me from a rock to a harder place and gives idiotVT!cake nowhere to go.
Just because NU can't be scum (reason: else he'd be dead D1), and ExO not scum (reason: derping would be a brilliant act from scumExO).
so cakepie must be scum for fakeclaiming, or it is the superunlikely event that cake is a bloodyidiot.[spoiler]On December 10 2016 09:49 Tumblewood wrote:
well my read on cakepie is 100% (okay, 99% in case he's really, really bad and/or trying to lose the game) because of the fakeclaim, but before he claimed it was more like a 90%.
On December 10 2016 15:30 Tumblewood wrote:
back at 90% on cakepie. this has potential to be, instead of mafia, the worst townie I have seen in a long time.
[..]
I'll give it a 95% chance cakepie is scum. exo, if you could just play well for a couple days and ease my doubts, that would be nice.
I'm not even given a chance to play well for a couple days, cuz if I'm town I have to be stupid.
On December 10 2016 15:36 Tumblewood wrote:I will try to make things as easy as possible for NU, who I predict is the axis vote in this case. but don't get your hopes up too much  On December 10 2016 13:31 ExO_ wrote:
I 100% believe TW. I checked the places where he crumbed. Though it could've been fake, some of the letters it made no sense to cap. The amount of effort TW has put in, combined with the fact that both Cakepie and CR tried to get a train going on him (and failed) leaving him alive goes a long way to helping me believe him.
Cakepie's and CR's claims are obviously bullshit. Cakepie doesn't say who he checked N0 or N1, CR checked the dead guys. Very convenient.
NU looks like you are the decider here, and the only person other than TW I'm going to be concerned with. Let me know any questions you have more me, any analysis you might want, or anything you might find interesting. On December 10 2016 18:09 ExO_ wrote:
TW look at cakepie. He's proposing to you literally everybody as a potential scum. It's wise to consider all possibilities, but he's proposing every scenario to everyone in an attempt to get people to move their votes.
I don't see ExO giving me a fair shake.
I see how things are. This is coming down to NU.
For scum!TW, this was the plan anyways (but now needing less effort than before).
I'm going to have to fight hard to earn back a town read, get him to untunnel Ray, and see why TW and ExO are scum.
That's fine. It means I only need to speak to NU.
This also means that NU is going to have demands for his attention from everyone.
But it's okay. TW and ExO are going to keep bombarding him with "look at this, obv scum" type arguments. It's "face value" stuff that shouldn't take him long to process.
I'm going to work to show NU a different type of argument. He's not familiar with it, but if he is still willing to listen to the bloody idiot who has in all likelyhood thrown the game, I will endeavor to show him what H1, Ray, and myself have been doing, and how we are thinking. It's about giving things finding and weighing scum and town motivations, and weighing scum and town explanations under good faith.
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On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote:... My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing. ... You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them?I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline.
No, you misunderstand that quoted.
I'm saying that I gimped #186 because I had associative reads in my head at that time but chose not to put them in #186.
I wanted to give time for the number of interactions to increase. I wanted to continue pushing TW further into solid scum territory. Given time, if I am right about their association, I will get more material, and a stronger basis to associate ExO to solidscum!TW.
Tipping them off that I'm on their tail may make them more guarded and harder to catch.
At the time of #186, I had
- the niggling feeling that ExO was evasive, especially re TW
- the only ?solid content? was attacking CR's case (proxy defending TW)
- the N0 interactions.
Ray, I wish I had the luxury of time to engage with you, but my focus is going to have to be on working with NU.
Unless TW and/or ExO extend good faith to me. But they're not doing so.
Today was supposed to be me helping NU town you so we can lynch scum together, but now I have a different task.
I'll clarify/correct you when you don't get what I'm saying or if you misunderstand what I wrote (like above).
Things I tell NU, you can read and process as well.
Otherwise you're on your own to figure stuff. But I don't think you need my help.
I hope you'll do what you can. Maybe at some point NU will be willing to read you on good faith.
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On December 11 2016 00:03 NeverUnlucky wrote:
CP:
If you really are VT and your goal was to bullet-bait, why did you not rescind your claim immediately after the EoN post? You keeping your claim until the tables flipped and rescinding then is really strange and scummy. Rescinding after the day started wouldn't have affected your intent of bullet baiting as the NK was already done. Also, if your intent was to bullet bait, why would you post it at :59? You're not letting scum a lot of time to react, so your intent of taking the bullet as VT would be nullified.
The whole thing was a terrible idea and poorly executed and I didn't even realized I had fucked up royally until it was far too late.
Not rescinding after the day started was because I had an awareness that TW could fake?claim naive cop whose plan was flawed due to focusing on conftown to him, the cop, if he can live long enough. By process of elimination from my reads, Ray would have to be the real cop. I was worried about VT NU in cop?TW vs cop? situation so I stayed until Ray was in.
Of course, this was all before I realized that I'd fucked up royally.
Another thing is, I was trying to figure out if the NK was a (somewhat) confident bluesnipe, or a shaky bluesnipe, or not a blusnipe at all. Because I was mainly thinking about that, it took a while for me to realize my huge throw.
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On December 11 2016 00:03 NeverUnlucky wrote:
You talk about the possibility that I am a scummer with Ray, but you are town-reading us both. I'm stressing "talk the possibility" because you did not say why me or Ray would be scum individually. So, what about my play and Ray's play would make us scum?
Context is important: I'm willing to be wrong about my read on TW. I'm willing to make a good faith effort to look at the possibilities if cop TW and idiot VT cake with horrid horrid reads.
NU+CR -- I have strong town reads on both of you individually. So I'm left with trying to do an association narrative first, and then perhaps I can revisit it later, untunneltown you guys, and use the narrative to help me find things to scum either of you individually.
TW shoots it down very hastily because he towns you. [for scum!TW, this is part of his scripted act]
The next thing I do is to look at the other possibility: CR+ExO. I can start with the parts where I individually scum ExO. But the narrative just doesn't come together and I get very bogged down.
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Why do you think that my read on Ray is not on good faith?
Because at early D2 I don't think you've had the chance to re-eval him for EoD1 / early N1 yet. Or you're not interpreting it correctly.
Ray makes a good faith effort to understand ExO and explain himself to ExO.
In contrast, ExO doesn't make a good faith effort to listen to Ray.
I'll also admit I that between posting about ExO+TW and getting CR to untunnel you, I didn't have time to check your case on CR and wrongly assumed it was still in OMGUS place. But early N1 was very strong CR TR for me and I was very alarmed that you had him top of the lynch.
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Why do you believe Ray's claim over TW's?
Firstly obviously because I TR Ray and SR TW.
Also, the associative read I have for TW+ExO gets stronger and stronger the more either of them posts.- Approaching EoD1 I was seeing act 1: play for no lynch.
- In early N1 TW's posts don't come across as natural. [spoiler]He tries to mimic us. We've both sporadically talked about RL, like me going to dinner or you having school. He overdoes in three posts. He also makes a whole theatrical show of trying to avoid bias and slipping into omgus. If I didn't fuck up, he'd be wifoming omgus?notomgus against me.[spoiler]
- ExO immediately gives TW super towncred for "defending" and "effort" whereas I null his defense and have a gut feel that the effort is contrived
- Ray tries to understand ExO. ExO doesn't reciprocate
- So act 2 is: N1 make TW town, make Ray scum. Bash cakepie for bad tunnels. Win over NU.
- TW's crumb reveal "confirms" to me the entire charade. Act 3 has opened.
Then, there is the contrast between two groups of people.
1. Those who are willing to take the time to look over the possibilities and weigh them, and willing to untunnel on good faith and consider evidence that might show that they are wrong about something. Willing to change their mind.
2. Those who quickly accept or dismiss things on prima facie evidence. Quickly pick the option they like and don't stop to consider the alternatives.
In before I get accused of being a hypocrite since I tunneled all of D1 + N1 -- look at EoD1. I pressure vote and let TW defend himself, and unvote once he leaves. I was tracking on phone in bed and not evaluating him yet. Then I looked back at it out of the heat of the moment.
As for me tunneling for all sorts of "shitty reasons", and "pick the option they like and don't stop to consider the alternatives." I'll discuss that next.
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On December 11 2016 01:09 cakepie wrote:
I was worried about VT NU in cop?TW vs cop?Ray situation so I stayed until Ray was in.
ebwop: cop?TW vs cop?Ray.
Additional elaboration: I can use my towncred to pass the cop baton to Ray when every claim is in. Including in case for some weird reason ExO wants to claim too. So I waited for everyone.
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On December 11 2016 02:31 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 16:26 cakepie wrote:On December 10 2016 16:04 Tumblewood wrote:
and with ray, it's that you never seem to pressure him, you just always see the good side, which isn't how you have treated TW+ExO I did concede to you toward EoD1 that he was falling into scum territory. Also, I don't think I ever pressured NU and H1 very much either? Bolded is false?? Couldn't find it anywhere in your EoD posts.
#179
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On December 11 2016 02:12 NeverUnlucky wrote:
cake, I understand that from your pov Ray is the cop because you TR him and ExO+TW associative read is strong for you. However, I think how we read TW/Ray does not matter here at all. I think it's a matter of who's cop, and who's not. Who's town, and who's scum. So I'm asking you to drop your read on them both for a moment, re-read my D2 posts as well as TW's and Ray's, and tell me who do you believe is cop more.
Ok, you're right.
Scum!Ray had time to evaluate the claims that came before him. cop TW, idiot cake.
He then formulates his fakeclaim to cater to idiot cake.
Got it.
Forget me trying to persuade NU, gotta obey NU for a bit here.
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On December 11 2016 02:15 Tumblewood wrote:
jeez cakepie why do you have such a strong aversion to scumreading chairman ray
I'll try to fix that first thing tomorrow with a fresh mind. Too far gone at 3am.
TW, here's something that you can reciprocate for me to show me you're willing to work with shitVT cake.
I revisit CR. You revisit ExO. We can try to meet in the middle. Because ExO+CR is what we're going to have to do if cop TW and shitVT cake agree that NU is town and CR+NU makes no sense.
For a start, #107, TW towns ExO focusing on the mistake part. NU and I both didn't like the way he couched his read. Doesn't matter that he confused cakepie/calix. He's not taking responsibility for a read he knows beforehand is wrong.
There's also how he seems to have kept evading a lot of questions. Inattentive, or trying to avoid taking a position / explaining own motives?
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Do we agree that we can just stop talking to ExO and throw out all of ExO's D2?
I lose the game by mislynching TW
You lose the game by mislynching Ray
It's actually that simple.
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On December 11 2016 04:41 cakepie wrote:
Do we agree that we can just stop talking to ExO and throw out all of ExO's D2?
I lose the game by mislynching TW
You lose the game by mislynching Ray
It's actually that simple.
no wait it's only that simple in my head. not as simple in NU's head.
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On December 11 2016 04:30 NeverUnlucky wrote:
It's not about obeying me, it's about reaching a consensus on who's cop and who's mafia. If you believe that CRay is the cop (That his claim makes sense, not because you TR him), you should most definitely show me why. I'm not liking that you've dismissed all the points I've made on Ray since D1 and are now deciding to sheep me.
After fucking up with the fakeclaim, I started doubting myself and my reads. To the point that I actually extended good faith to TW and let NU's reasoning contaminate mine and willing to go try scum reading Ray.
But ExO's yelling is my wake up call.
My reads are correct and my mission is to help NU untunnel Ray and lynch TW.
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NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed?
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3
- ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me
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On December 11 2016 05:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:
But you're dodging the question re: Why did/do you think I could be scum?
ExO has been dodging questions all game long.
- Why is TW town in #98
- Why he doesn't think TW buddied NU
- etc etc. in my case which I hope you've read.
He's still dodging.
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On December 11 2016 05:31 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 05:28 cakepie wrote:
NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed?
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3
- ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me Can you make a single case on TW that doesn't rely on association? And I never blamed you, I said I was doubting my read because I was trusting yours too much (because I Thought you were Calix from the last mafia game)
Sure. The earliest one is still
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3
Scumslip. Trying to fake activity by discussing plan together with NU.
Goes into blind enumeration mode. Forgets about mylo which he obviously knows.
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On December 11 2016 05:30 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 05:28 cakepie wrote:
NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed?
- TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3
- ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me Yes? That makes CRay cop?
No. You jolly well know that I only have CRay cop by process of elimination.
I need to show you why TW and ExO are scum individually, then by the association.
I need to show you why CRay is town.
All this using reasoning/logic that you're not used to.
My job is not easy but I need you to listen.
Meanwhile, ExO and TW are just going to bombard you with the easy cheap reads you're used to.
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NU. How willing are you to follow long reasoning that you're not used to?
I don't sense you're very willing.
Part of it is a generational disconnect. I play in a different way. Ray and H1 also. You don't "get" us intuitively.
Part of it is that I've fucked up with the fakeclaim and the playing suboptimally for a good bit so far D2. I've overinvested earlier in the game but now I'm exhausted and burnt out and making unforced errors.
Are you willing to try to follow, or do you just want me to justify Ray cop in one small bite so you can just get this over with.
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On December 11 2016 05:47 ExO_ wrote:
CR has to be scum. otherwise scum would immediately hammer now.
Unless, of course, TW and ExO are scum. Duh.
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Cakepie options. Convince NU that:
TW is scum individually
ExO is scum individually
TW+ExO are scum together
cake is town
Ray is town
feel free to cross out any others.
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On December 11 2016 05:56 NeverUnlucky wrote:
I'm willing to hear you and Ray out, though I will say that there is not much chance you're convincing me that TW is scum at this point.
And it has nothing to do with generations.
Nor with the fake-claim.
It's about Ray's claim being BS.
But I'll hear you guys out like I did for TW. If you would please condense as much as possible your case(s), it would be much appreciated.
On December 11 2016 05:57 NeverUnlucky wrote:
I will follow.
Pick one. Which is it.
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On December 11 2016 06:06 ExO_ wrote:
I'd like you to convince me how Ray is town. It's impossible, he's scummy as hell, but I'd like to hear how you're going to justify your scum buddy as town.
Do me a favor and STFU.
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EPT
