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On December 29 2016 08:21 beentheredonethat wrote:
Oh c'mon. Yes, I confirmed 2 days ago. Then, I had christmas dinner with gf's family, spent a nice time with her, she went home to my place with me and we continued having a nice time. Nail me on that if you feel like it and don't believe that I genuinely forgot about this game, okay. But lynching into me is the easiest thing to do for scum at this point.
Check my last town game and check my activity level there. I can and will contribute for town in the exact same way if you give me the chance to do so.
There's no way I will catch up in the like what 30 minutes or so we have until deadline. Tictock, the whole reason behind you voting me is that my vote was randomly cast on you.I checked if there was a main wagon, there wasn't, so I voted randomly.
More important even: as there seemingly aren't any clear wagons and town feels confident in lynching into afk/lurky players, I fear that mafia is currently in the driving seat of this game. Which leads my gut to Koshi who went under the radar pretty much ALWAYS when town was on the wrong track. I correctly read him as scum once already so I guess it's worth something. Koshi has 1 filter, compared to his last town game of D1 that's horrendous. Also note Time Traveler's vote on me and keep a close look on ANYONE that voted me early as I am right now a very low hanging fruit for mafia and lazy town alike.
These seem like bold conclusions for somebody who admitted that he has not read the game at all. Especially the part about Koshi going under the radar when town was off track. There could have been decent cases put out that he had just not read.
I don't like that his first reaction was that he didn't feel comfortable making a judgement without reading the thread and wanted to throw away his vote, and then when people voted for him he came back with very strong conclusions about Koshi's alignment. I think it's possible for Btdt to have gotten strong conclusions from reading Koshi's filter. It seems a little off to me.
However, the last time I saw btdt as scum he posted a lot less than he has here and his posting seemed more uncomfortable to me. I'm going to mark him as null.
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United States8001 Posts
On December 30 2016 05:06 disformation wrote:ExO_Explains his reads and starts on the Slammer: Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 01:02 ExO_ wrote:
I feel like there are a lot of people to seriously consider, but we have 8 hours left and the votes are all over the place. I think I'd prefer chez/slam if we're just gonna lynch a trolly person. I could see grack being scum, but I could also see Koshi very easily being scum here.
His post looks good, but look at how he's playing this game. He's not posting with fire or over the top bravado. He's saying good shit, but he's not playing with that huge umpf that he plays with as town. He's antagonizing nobody. This still doesn't look like town Koshi to me, it reminds me so much of dota 2 mafia.
Still I don't wanna get tunneled all in on this theory 100% yet. I think we should come together as town and get rid of either slam or chezinu for now.
##Unvote
##Vote: Alakaslam + on koshi: Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 03:19 ExO_ wrote:On December 29 2016 03:04 Koshi wrote:
This is my last post this cycle. I would enjoy it if you lynch within my top 4 names. What a wonderful non-post. I'd be okay with Koshi lynch after this. so for me: Slam/Chez/Koshi are who I think we should lynch - on grack: Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 03:23 ExO_ wrote:On December 29 2016 03:19 LightningStrike wrote:
Dis and ExO why not lynch Grack? Because I'm not convinced enough that he's scum yet. The biggest thing I found scummy about him was his buddying with TT, and his post count that doesn't really scum hunt or drive town forward in any way. But I don't think I'm okay lynching him today when he's at least talking a decent amount. The fact that Koshi wants to lynch him also makes me think me want to hold off on a grack lynch. 1 day pass on tt2: Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 04:06 ExO_ wrote:
Time trav, you get a pass from me today, I know what its like to be new and exposed to day 1 and not really able to take it all in. That said it ONLY applies for day 1. You're going to have to step it up after today on btdt: Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:On December 29 2016 07:55 Tictock wrote:On December 29 2016 07:52 ExO_ wrote:
K I'm home for the last hour. BTDT is completely afk right, can somebody explain why we're lynching him? I'd rather lynch slam/chez and see if btdt can get replaced He came in to say he forgot about the game and waste a vote on me. I'm pointing out that he confirmed on Monday and so he 100% knew the game was starting. k Good enough for me on LS/koshi: Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:22 ExO_ wrote:
I don't think I'm okay with an L.S. lynch. I have my doubts about him.
I think I like Koshi. Again everything I said about Koshi still stands. Town Koshi is in your face and loud and proud, and here he's kinda just "meh'. His post count is really low too.
I'm not 100% sure, but I think I'd prefer Koshi to btdt at this point. I feel like its riskier to go with Koshi over chez/slam/btdt/insert other inac here but he just feels like scummy to me. Would like a bit more explanation on LS though. Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:34 ExO_ wrote:
Grack should 100% not be the lynch right now. He has 8 pages of filter. Even if a good portion of it is garbage, I cannot say anything has sold me he's so scummy that he should be lynched day 1.
Koshi has 1 page of filter, is completely out of the thread, and had a weak case on grack. Then peaced out. That's it. I think he's our best bet here Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:38 ExO_ wrote:On December 29 2016 08:36 Time Traveler wrote:
Can anyone repeat why Koshi is being voted again? Koshi is a well-known player on TL mafia. He can be very antagonistic but he can also be right. My thinking is this: Koshi has 1 page of filter. That's incredibly low activity, esp for Koshi. Koshi makes a bad case on grack and doesn't really try past that. His posts aren't getting in anybody's face (which is my impression of his town meta) but instead he's acting disinterested and not passionate (what I think his scum meta is like based on his scum play in dota 2 mafia). Therefore I think he's our best bet right now. I'm not as sold on LS at the moment I dont like that these boil down to activity.calls out the grack thing: Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:52 ExO_ wrote:
Grack you said your goal was to get Koshi lynched, but you've been parked on LS this entire time. Why was your "goal" to get Koshi lynched and why are you not voting for him now? Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:59 ExO_ wrote:
Grack you are suspicious as fuck right now Left out a bit of pocking left and right, which all felt like he seriously was trying to figure out the game. 2 very small things: why didnt he like a LS lynch. and i didnt super agree with the activity based read on Koshi/Grack. But I am fairly sure he is just town. His read progression on Koshi makes a lot of sense. And while I am not a huge fan of that grack read, he realizes grack looks really weird at EoD. Overall feels a lot like figuring out the game and not like he is agenda driven or playing for survival.
ExO's points against Koshi didn't just boil down to activity. He specifically talks about the way Koshi is playing the game, even outside of his low activity.
I find it weird that the conclusions on many of these WoT are wishy washy-- while others have more certainty that I don't find certain. Especially regarding Superbia and BTDT.
The main conclusion on TimeTraveler
Don't know what to say about this. Feel like I am not really in a good position to complain about him avoiding any stances at EoD. Really needs to put out some decent reads, soon.
On me
since EoD was so chaotic and so all over the place I can hardly blame the guy.
Still for whatever reason my gut feeling is pretty bleh on this one.
"Feel like I am not really in a good position to complain about him avoiding any stances at EoD." yet that is what you accuse Chez of doing.
On Chez
Main problem is that I have no idea why he was voting Hoshi. For some reason him being waffly and lost looks somewaht genuine to me. Pointing out that tehre is no counter wagon is actually a good point. Lack of counter wagon should have warned us. Wish he did something about it though? So yeah again not that helpful.
You just said he had a good point as the lynch went down, but that he didn't "do something about it" and that he was unhelpful? I think that pointing that fact out is helpful, it's just that no one listened. He did warn us. He was more helpful than voting on himself less than an hour before the deadline, if that's what you mean. Consider shade thrown.
On Grack
The progression itself isnt that horrible. Picks up a bunch of points on LS, makes a small case wants him over koshi. Gets confused when suddenly everyone wants koshi. Though that confusing can him being knowing koshi will flip green and not knowing what the best position is here for him, cause that will have caught scum by surprise too.
So not as slam dunk as I thought, but it is still pretty bad.
You also said that you think the scum is somewhere in the middle-end of the train. Leaving aside how convenient of a read this is (considering there are only three parts to a wagon, and you chose 2/3), Grack was the original wagon driver. Sure, he got off because he thought LS was a better lynch, but Grack was the first person to really push Koshi and make him a viable choice IMO. So this goes against what you think mafia should've done.
Also think this sentence is really weird: Though that confusing can him being knowing koshi will flip green and not knowing what the best position is here for him,cause that will have caught scum by surprise too.
I find that a very odd way to words things from a town POV. How do you know scum were surprised by the Koshi lynch?
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I have to speed this up faster than I would like because I have to go soon. DF said earlier that he didn't want to lynch Koshi on day 1. However, his read progression seemed natural enough to me and he's made a lot of contributions that I liked.
He's one of my top town alongside ExO.
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I think we all know where I stand on LS. Disfo made a post saying that last game LS disappeared when he was under pressure and that he did the same thing this game. I think that's a good post. You can add that on to what I've said on him.
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Overall reads: (graded with a bit of a curve)
Town:
ExO
DF
Town lean:
GB
Chezinu
TimeTraveler (by connection to LS, otherwise null)
Null:
Slam
Btdt
Scum lean:
Disfo
TT
Superbia
Very likely scum:
LS
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No LS didnt disappear when he was under pressure. he just went afk like 2h before deadline, after saying the main wagon is town cause meta and trying a little bit to get ppl to vote with koshi and him on another guy who turned out to be town.
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On December 30 2016 06:58 disformation wrote:
No LS didnt disappear when he was under pressure. he just went afk like 2h before deadline, after saying the main wagon is town cause meta and trying a little bit to get ppl to vote with koshi and him on another guy who turned out to be town.
Ya he just saying pure shit. Do I got your sword next day phase,
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On December 30 2016 06:58 disformation wrote:
No LS didnt disappear when he was under pressure. he just went afk like 2h before deadline, after saying the main wagon is town cause meta and trying a little bit to get ppl to vote with koshi and him on another guy who turned out to be town.
Yeah you're right he was gone way earlier than I had remembered. I thought I remembered him being there at EoD.
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United States8001 Posts
On December 30 2016 04:43 Grackaroni wrote:Ok I have read through all of the filters. LS still looks very scummy and I think it is a massive red flag that Koshi got lynched over him. I think my case on LS should have gained more traction than it did. I also think that if Koshi and LS were being viewed as equally scummy then normally the lynch would land on LS. I actually think ExO came out very townie from the lynch. He was the only person that fully took control during all of the waffling and pushed through who he wanted to be lynched, which was consistent from his earlier posts. GlowingBear has seemed pretty townie to me. However, he said that he would sheep me and never moved his vote. He loses points for that. I think that if he had moved his vote then LS would have been more likely to have been lynched. Also I may be biased because he defended me at the end of the day. I think TT looks quite bad from the lynch. He started out calling Koshi very townie but he offered no real defense of him when Chezinu and BtDt voted to lynch him. Show nested quote +On December 28 2016 15:02 Tictock wrote:
I started this post over twice kus I both want to let Grack and Koshi get into it, yet I also feel like I want to weigh in.
Koshi is towny AF and Grack could easily be mafia. However, I do rather like Gracks rundowns of the game.
I'm setteling in to reread Dis now but I'd also like to point out how incredibly shit GB's last batch of posts were.
Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 07:06 Tictock wrote:On December 29 2016 06:52 Time Traveler wrote:
Wait, Grack actually wants Koshi dead after defending him? da fack. Guess I'll have to re-read It's about half OMGUS based, but he doesn't like that Koshi is pushing him without interacting with him. It's a fair point honestly, I just don't want to lynch Koshi today. Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:49 Tictock wrote:On December 29 2016 08:43 Time Traveler wrote:
BtDt, be honest, you just want to lynch me because I voted you without saying anything and caused all this mess by accident. And now you're like "OMG. THIS GUY ALMOST GOT ME KILLED. #DOWNWITHHIM Your vote was quite opportunistic and have not really brought any scum hunting to the table yourself. Honestly if it weren't for this being your first game you would probably be the lynch right now. That is the only thing holding me back ATM and I'm wondering if that isn't completely wrong right now. I'm also not terribly keen on D1 lynching Koshi as I don't think he has really been scummy at all. He has fooled me in the past though....bleh. Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:52 Tictock wrote:
Meh not sure where the vote count is at. If we are actually between LS and Koshi then I'm going with LS. He also joins in with a bunch of other people blaming me for the Koshi lynch, when I had at least made a case for voting LS over Koshi. Show nested quote +On December 29 2016 08:59 Tictock wrote:On December 29 2016 08:57 Grackaroni wrote:On December 29 2016 08:56 darthfoley wrote:
Why is Grack not voting Koshi after getting lots of us to vote Koshi? I'm feeling nervous about how easily this lynch is happening when so many people were hard townreading Koshi when I started posting today. If Koshi flips Town you are getting scrutinized to all hell tomorrow. He did nothing to prevent the Koshi lynch. He didn't even move his vote. That's scummy. I realized I'm going to have to break this post up into many parts.
Idk his play just reminded me of how i felt near EoD. Also tbf the posts about Koshi being very townie were relatively early on in the game, similar to when I said I wouldn't lynch Koshi on D1. I don't really understand why you view our two similar plays so differently?
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@df:
my points on chez and tt2 are different. tt2 didnt have any stances at all.
chez did meekly warn us but didnt do much about that.
these two things have 0 in common.
what the fuck do you mean with convenient read?
gracks intial position doesnt matter much because his first vote was way early in the middle of the day when noone was really considering him a lynch. pushing koshi partly of of mainly omgus doesnt give him town points at all.
How do you know scum were surprised by the Koshi lynch? By koshi flipping town.
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On December 30 2016 06:53 Grackaroni wrote:
I have to speed this up faster than I would like because I have to go soon. DF said earlier that he didn't want to lynch Koshi on day 1. However, his read progression seemed natural enough to me and he's made a lot of contributions that I liked.
He's one of my top town alongside ExO.
Really?
Darth's change of heart on Koshi from "never lynch" to voting him over LS is giving me trust issues about our buddy triangle.
Even after he explained it I'm still not sure it makes sense.
However Darth also had an incredibly shit D1 as Town last I played with him (he pushed against basically everyone while we lynched mafia) and when I skimmed Dis's wall about him I felt like I agreed with Dis that the progression did make some sense.
I'll reread Darth when I have time. I would like to keep the buddies alive if possible. We gotta work on confirming ourselves as Town though, if we can turn this into an actual town circle this game will get a lot better. My plan is to make sure we lynch mafia tomorrow.
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United States8001 Posts
Sorry should've clarified better
@Grack why do you have such differering views on me and TT?
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On December 30 2016 07:03 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On December 30 2016 04:43 Grackaroni wrote:Ok I have read through all of the filters. LS still looks very scummy and I think it is a massive red flag that Koshi got lynched over him. I think my case on LS should have gained more traction than it did. I also think that if Koshi and LS were being viewed as equally scummy then normally the lynch would land on LS. I actually think ExO came out very townie from the lynch. He was the only person that fully took control during all of the waffling and pushed through who he wanted to be lynched, which was consistent from his earlier posts. GlowingBear has seemed pretty townie to me. However, he said that he would sheep me and never moved his vote. He loses points for that. I think that if he had moved his vote then LS would have been more likely to have been lynched. Also I may be biased because he defended me at the end of the day. I think TT looks quite bad from the lynch. He started out calling Koshi very townie but he offered no real defense of him when Chezinu and BtDt voted to lynch him. On December 28 2016 15:02 Tictock wrote:
I started this post over twice kus I both want to let Grack and Koshi get into it, yet I also feel like I want to weigh in.
Koshi is towny AF and Grack could easily be mafia. However, I do rather like Gracks rundowns of the game.
I'm setteling in to reread Dis now but I'd also like to point out how incredibly shit GB's last batch of posts were.
On December 29 2016 07:06 Tictock wrote:On December 29 2016 06:52 Time Traveler wrote:
Wait, Grack actually wants Koshi dead after defending him? da fack. Guess I'll have to re-read It's about half OMGUS based, but he doesn't like that Koshi is pushing him without interacting with him. It's a fair point honestly, I just don't want to lynch Koshi today. On December 29 2016 08:49 Tictock wrote:On December 29 2016 08:43 Time Traveler wrote:
BtDt, be honest, you just want to lynch me because I voted you without saying anything and caused all this mess by accident. And now you're like "OMG. THIS GUY ALMOST GOT ME KILLED. #DOWNWITHHIM Your vote was quite opportunistic and have not really brought any scum hunting to the table yourself. Honestly if it weren't for this being your first game you would probably be the lynch right now. That is the only thing holding me back ATM and I'm wondering if that isn't completely wrong right now. I'm also not terribly keen on D1 lynching Koshi as I don't think he has really been scummy at all. He has fooled me in the past though....bleh. On December 29 2016 08:52 Tictock wrote:
Meh not sure where the vote count is at. If we are actually between LS and Koshi then I'm going with LS. He also joins in with a bunch of other people blaming me for the Koshi lynch, when I had at least made a case for voting LS over Koshi. On December 29 2016 08:59 Tictock wrote:On December 29 2016 08:57 Grackaroni wrote:On December 29 2016 08:56 darthfoley wrote:
Why is Grack not voting Koshi after getting lots of us to vote Koshi? I'm feeling nervous about how easily this lynch is happening when so many people were hard townreading Koshi when I started posting today. If Koshi flips Town you are getting scrutinized to all hell tomorrow. He did nothing to prevent the Koshi lynch. He didn't even move his vote. That's scummy. I realized I'm going to have to break this post up into many parts. Idk his play just reminded me of how i felt near EoD. Also tbf the posts about Koshi being very townie were relatively early on in the game, similar to when I said I wouldn't lynch Koshi on D1. I don't really understand why you view our two similar plays so differently?
No TT was still town reading him. TT had a post saying that Koshi was not very scummy 11 minutes before lynch, but "he fooled me in the past. . . bleh."
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United States8001 Posts
On December 30 2016 07:03 disformation wrote:
@df:
my points on chez and tt2 are different. tt2 didnt have any stances at all.
chez did meekly warn us but didnt do much about that.
these two things have 0 in common.
what the fuck do you mean with convenient read?
gracks intial position doesnt matter much because his first vote was way early in the middle of the day when noone was really considering him a lynch. pushing koshi partly of of mainly omgus doesnt give him town points at all.
How do you know scum were surprised by the Koshi lynch? By koshi flipping town.
1. That's fair. I think TimeTraveler has a very decent chance of just being overwhelmed scum ATM.
2. I mean convenient read as something that's very safe. You are saying that you think mafia is on the middle or end of the wagon... well that includes like 5/7 people so statistically that's probably true and therefore incredibly safe to "deduce"
3. Forgive me for not really understanding what you mean with your last sentence?
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Anyways I g2g. If I die you know what to do tomorrow.
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On December 30 2016 07:07 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On December 30 2016 07:03 disformation wrote:
@df:
my points on chez and tt2 are different. tt2 didnt have any stances at all.
chez did meekly warn us but didnt do much about that.
these two things have 0 in common.
what the fuck do you mean with convenient read?
gracks intial position doesnt matter much because his first vote was way early in the middle of the day when noone was really considering him a lynch. pushing koshi partly of of mainly omgus doesnt give him town points at all.
How do you know scum were surprised by the Koshi lynch? By koshi flipping town. 1. That's fair. I think TimeTraveler has a very decent chance of just being overwhelmed scum ATM. 2. I mean convenient read as something that's very safe. You are saying that you think mafia is on the middle or end of the wagon... well that includes like 5/7 people so statistically that's probably true and therefore incredibly safe to "deduce" 3. Forgive me for not really understanding what you mean with your last sentence?
2. Ah IC. Okay let me try to explain again. It is more like for scum to be on the mid-end part of a wagon. Because scum usually doesnt want to give town info by scumhunting start wagons etc. So they hop onto a wagon on the back of a good case or once the coast is clear. This is not always true, good scummers can do otherwise etc. but it is usually likely.
This game we basically had only 1 wagon and all the other guys had like 2 ppl on them. so I am willing to say that scum could have hopped on a tad earlier, since a koshi lynch is very good for scum.
3. you asked me how I know that the koshi lynched surprised scum. I said: because koshi flipped town. =p
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United States8001 Posts
On December 30 2016 07:03 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 30 2016 06:53 Grackaroni wrote:
I have to speed this up faster than I would like because I have to go soon. DF said earlier that he didn't want to lynch Koshi on day 1. However, his read progression seemed natural enough to me and he's made a lot of contributions that I liked.
He's one of my top town alongside ExO. Really? Darth's change of heart on Koshi from "never lynch" to voting him over LS is giving me trust issues about our buddy triangle. Even after he explained it I'm still not sure it makes sense. However Darth also had an incredibly shit D1 as Town last I played with him (he pushed against basically everyone while we lynched mafia) and when I skimmed Dis's wall about him I felt like I agreed with Dis that the progression did make some sense. I'll reread Darth when I have time. I would like to keep the buddies alive if possible. We gotta work on confirming ourselves as Town though, if we can turn this into an actual town circle this game will get a lot better. My plan is to make sure we lynch mafia tomorrow.
Yea l0l last game was very very poor D1 from me. I do take exception to that characterization of my play this game so far. I wanted to lynch both Superbia and LS before we even got to Koshi. I also wanted to lynch btdt before Koshi until I got nervous about the no info point and the sudden activity of btdt. I cased both of them and no one paid me any attention, especially on Superbia. (No one is still paying any attention to Superbia). I still think it made sense, given his filter, to lynch Koshi. He could've easily picked up his activity and demeanor.
Good to hear!
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But you are right, I have looked more into progression of reads and reasonings and not thaaaat much into the timings. Should do that as well, if I can get some time. I'll add it to the todo
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aight. dont think ill get anything done b4 eon anymore. if i dont die i'll try to prepare some posts for after the break.
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There will be no 1-hour resolution period for Night 1.
The game pause will take place after the night ends.
This will serve as the resolution period.
You may still post and submit actions until the deadline if you wish.
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EPT
