/in
Newbie Student Mafia XXII
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
/in | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On July 26 2016 02:15 Half the Sky wrote: LOL? You're acting as if something was wrong with using spirits as motivation (assuming the player is of age, of course, if I know they are not, I won't) to endgame townies As for the price, no that's why I didn't buy that. It is absurd. I stuck to Japanese my last trip. A whiskey lover can always dream. I think nothing at the moment tops Talisker Dark Storm in the scotch category... I'd have bought it. But then I'm crazy like that. I get an urge to hoard expensive drinks from time to time. >_> | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I really ought to get around here more often. Keep getting distracted by things. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On July 29 2016 20:40 Rels wrote: Now that I've experienced what a commitment it is to host a game, I know that I owe you & the other hosts an enormous thank you for that game. It was so good hosting-wise, best flavor & hosting for sure. I have no idea where cakepie went but it's a shame he doesn't host anymore, one year later and my first game still contains the best flavor, votecounts & post game advices I've ever seen. To be honest almost all of the credit for it should go to cakepie. cake had this google spreadsheet for it that was just incredible. IIRC all we needed to do was to plug in the most recent vote changes, night actions, etc and the entire thing auto-generated a vote count, appropriate PMs, etc etc. Literally everything. Including the vote change progression that everyone seemed to like so much. I should see if I have access to that sheet still. Going to steal the coding for use in future games if/when I host in future. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
So...the game. I'm going to post thoughts on everyone anyway, despite Race's chaos. I'm not as happy with this as I'd like to be but eh... Lunaticman - Thing about lynching Grac because of a previous game is NAI as far as I'm concerned. Just salt. Don't particularly like the assumption of Race being town based on the spamming but honestly I don't think it even matters. It was just a massive disruption to the game all told. This line indicates to me that they're not on the mafia team together: So even if he has good reads we will not be able to take anything productive from it. Even though this is perfectly true it's not something I think you would say about a fellow mafia member so early on. You wouldn't want to undermine their credibility (even if Race was doing a more than good enough job doing that himself). This isn't to say that Lunatic or Race/scott isn't mafia, but a Lunatic/(Race/scott)/x team is unlikely in my eyes based on that post alone, which is a potentially useful bit of information going forward. I actually really like Lunatic's reply to Skynx: It feels like you are also sceptical of Grac, I don't know if I will be able to trust him. Also I think he is playing similar to last game so far. I don't know if that is good or bad. The big difference is that he is contributing "more" atm so that should indicate he is towny? Lunatic is town leaning a little from this in my eyes (unless we want to go tinfoil hat and assume they're both mafia and are playing a VERY aggressive game together). If they're both mafia then he doesn't do this so early because you're starting to put yourself too close to a teammate too early on before anyone is being townread and before you see where the game is going. If Lunatic is mafia and Skynx isn't then I think you be a bit more buddy-buddy about the "hey we agree on this!" thing. Questioning Grack about that kinda weird thing on Race is good. From there on seems to be asking genuinely useful probing questions. Trying to get a game going despite everything that's happened. All good stuff. silentwarrior - The focus on Kelsier is really, really weird. Like...to me Kelsier was clearly just sick and fed up of what Race was doing. Hell if I'd not been out all day I'd probably have felt the same way if I'd been looking forward to getting the game going. It's totally NAI that he felt like that. But silent went ham on it. He's right that avoiding posting and waiting for others is kinda scummy, but there was practically nothing to go on and Race was just messing up the thread with garbage. Maybe I sympathise with Kelsier a bit here because every game so far I've liked to hold back a bit at the beginning so I could get a decent read post off as my first major contribution. I like having a starting point for myself, see. silent then calls out Race for the spam. But it was the easiest call-out in the world because of the overwhelming amount of garbage. ANYONE calls this out. As any alignment. Regardless of the alignment of Race. Even in the one circumstance that you don't really want to call someone out for it (i.e. being on the same Mafia team) you still call this out because if someone on a scum team with you is doing that kind of something you bus them hard because they're not helping at all. I don't entirely dislike silent's reasoning on the Kelsier vote but it's still reaching incredibly far. Kelsier's actions weren't unreasonable given the circumstances, even if they were a bit scummy. I could easily see a town doing exactly the same things. Shady. Do not like. Just going ham on Kelsier and looking at literally nobody else. beentheredonethat - Claimed he was going to wreck people. Then said we should kill Race "before the replacement". That's an incredibly scummy thing to do as far as I'm concerned. Then made a joke with Moosy. That is literally the entire content of his filter, three posts since his confirm. Very dodgy. MoosyDoosy - Said to ignore Race. It's a fair point to make. It gets a bit weirder later on though. He says he's not fond of D1 policy lynches which is a fair point too and a position I can agree with (though I'd still have totally policied Race for that utter nonsense, it was really getting on my nerves). Then claims he was pretty sure Race was town, then says it'll become more apparent with the next person. Then talks about how Race's spam was pointless. You know...if I want to go REALLY tinfoil hat here I could almost say Moosy is protecting Race here by playing down the importance of that insanity. The fact that he's replying to a joke about him being scum by saying it's a good read would be one hell of a mind game tactic if you actually were scum. All of Moosy's posts actually make a lot of sense to me and I can see where they're all coming from. But there's just something here that makes me very uncomfortable. Which leaves me with scott. His http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=14#268 ]first post[/url] is actually really, really cute. I can't draw any useful alignment information on it because it basically amounts to a town claim, which anyone would do. Though I think he might actually have a bit of a point. Good point on BTDT. Totally disagree on silent. Agree with the thing about that particular J Roc post. Again really dislike his position on silent. Can't do much with scott right now. Race's stuff is totally useless in this too. I'm really not sure I like the buddying with silent but that might just be because we seem to disagree on silent; someone buddying with someone you're scum leaning on is always going to feel bad. On the other hand his posts seem sincere. Stutters695 - Said wouldn't be about much because of birthday. Isn't about much. Totally fair enough imo. Fed up with Race, like a lot of people. NAI. Really good point in reply to Moosy. I find him pointing out that Race is actually capable of being coherent, he just isn't, quite a towny thing to do. Because it comes from a mentality of wanting the game to actually go somewhere. I also like the calling out of Grack claiming that Race was probably town. And challenging the reply. I'd like to see more tomorrow but all I've seen here so far is coming from a town mentality. J Roc - The whole blue claim thing earlier came across as quite silly honestly. Responding rather flippantly to posts, though quite amusingly admittedly. Early stuff is a bunch of nothing, don't like. But then calls out silent for that post of his that I found awful as well. Asks Race to comment on the Kelsier vote. And points out the really weird BTDT post. Like this bit. On balance probably more townie than not. Mderg - Pretty funny first post I have to admit. Also calls out silent for his Kelsier stuff. Also called to kill off Race, frustration apparent. Piggy-backing off Skynx's post comment on silent but he previously called out silent and I can't disagree with Skynx's post so I don't think it's a case of buddying up. Kinda weird post calling out Lunatic for saying 'bus'; although he's perfectly right in the specifics I don't really get any maliciousness from Lunatic's post he's quoting. Frankly I think this is an overreaction to Lunatic's post given that Lunatic probably just misspoke. Also told Kelsier he should get in the game. That's fine I guess. Nothing particularly special to make mderg either way here honestly. I want to see more. He's not posted since the replacement. KelsierSC - Done hardly anything so far. Kinda a fair point for a big chunk of it because of frustration over Race but since the sub still hasn't done a lot. Lunatic called him out a bit and the reply was literally just 'good for you'. Then he called the game terrible. Then say Skynx is okay but doesn't like anyone else. On the one hand the lurking and seemingly not playing is kinda scummy. On the other hand I don't think mafia is so damn flippant about it. Null Skynx - Did absolutely jack all until Race got banned honestly. But I like his thoughts on silent's post when Grack asked for them. And he was spot-on with the comment to BTDT too. Kinda like. Would not lynch today. Grackaroni - Has a lengthier filter than most but there's honestly not a lot in it. The stuff pre-Race ban is a bunch of nothing. I don't like all this "Race is probably town" based off the utter garbage Race was serving up. Also I feel like the whole "Mafia plays subdued" thing is honestly pretty leading. I don't think this is necessarily a safe assumption at all, but he seems quite happy to push town down that way of thinking. I like that he brings up silent's post but I don't like that he doesn't want to post his own thoughts before getting other people's. I also don't like that he disagrees with it but just dismisses it as 'reasoning a new town player would make' whilst simultaneously setting up to call anyone who calls silent scum, scum themselves. Then calling up people who were calling on silent, despite the fact that he's admitted that he disagrees with silent himself...he just doesn't find him particularly scummy for it. This is a kind of weird mentality...you agree that you don't like the thoughts in silent's post...but they're scummy for feeling that it might make silent scummy? I got split feelings on the three he calls most towny. So I guess I can't do much with this. However I have huge issues with this bit: Right now I'm kind of inclined to lynch Mderg just because I think the three people he has pushed so far (Silentwarrior, Lunatic, scott) have been the townier people in the thread, and he has pushed suspicion on two of them and tried to policy lynch the third. No. Mderg wanted to policy lynch Race, because he was screwing up the thread. Mderg hasn't commented AT ALL on scott himself because he's not been in thread since then. This is pretty deceptive stuff from Grack imo. I don't like it when people try to slip things like that under the radar. Scum lean. The defence on Lunatic is NAI because its exactly what I thought. Asking Kelsier to play is fine and complaining about him complaining is also fine but nothing special. Asks for a lynch target from Kelsier. NAI, anyone would want more info from Kelsier at this stage no matter their alignment or Kelsier's. Rels - Literally done absolutely nothing since the game started. -_- So right now my things look something like this: Town lean - Stutters695, J Roc, Lunaticman, Skynx Null - Moosy, scott, mderg, KelsierSC, Rels Scum lean - silentwarrior, beentheredonethat (unless he gives a good reply about 'that one post'), Grack Questions for people! silent: more thoughts, if you please, on someone other than Kelsier. You're tunnelling hard here and the only comment you've made about anyone else is complaining about Race's spamming. beentheredonethat: do something. Literally anything. Call someone scum. Call someone town. Ask a question of someone. Whatever. Also I'd like some thoughts about where you were coming from with that godawful call to lynch Race "before" a replacement. mderg: thoughts now that scott has replaced Race then, given that the last thing you seemed to want to do was lynch Race? KelsierSC: as for BTDT. Please do something, anything. What do you like about Skynx, for example? Though I sort of assume it's probably the same things I like so I guess that won't really get us anywhere... Rels: same as BTDT. But bigger: DO SOMETHING, LITERALLY ANYTHING. scott: Bit more specific question that I'm curious about. You posted this: On August 01 2016 07:30 scott31337 wrote: KelsierSC Mderg Stutters and BTDT When you were saying about RB being town and looking into who voted for him. I know this is only the people who actively voted for him but I expressed in thread that I'd probably be up with plynching him given the nonsense going on. Any particular reason I'm being left off your potential scum list? Or is it just my relative lack of filter and the fact I didn't actually get around to voting due to being out most of the day which made you miss it? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 01 2016 12:11 Lunaticman wrote: First I just want to say what an incredible post, I love it! Also no mafia would ever write a post that is so coherent so you are the best town lean in the game for me atm. Tbh I didnt even realize rels was in the game, my god bring out another salt shacker for me lol. Yeah also I think I misunderstood the term bussing, I think I was thinking of like a train? When someone stacks votes on a player. I dont know the proper terminology for it. Be back in a couple of hours from work. Thank you, but be careful. Make sure you're reading through what I've said and check that my train of thought makes sense to you before you townread me for it. I won't say its 'easy' (because that damn thing took between one to two hours to write) but its a very 'simple' thing for a scum to simply write a huge post and then hide behind it. Trust nobody until you've decided they're town from what they've actually said, not just from posting a lot of stuff that reads nicely. I'll be asking myself some very searching questions later on, believe me. (Kudos to whoever gets that reference.) Here's a useful summary of bussing: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bussing I think you might be thinking of bandwagonning? On August 01 2016 12:22 scott31337 wrote: I only added the people who actually voted for me - There was a vote in the main thread for Race that was not in the voting thread I didn't count either. I was looking more at who pulled the trigger to do so. And BTDT looks the worst out of those four. Fair enough, I thought it might be something like that. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 01 2016 12:57 Grackaroni wrote: I think that mafia tends to play more subdued is a pretty standard idea that most players would accept. I'm not saying Race Bannon could never be mafia but lynching the guy who goes out of his way to spam the thread and pisses everybody off in the process is definitely not a good place to start if you want to hit mafia. Perhaps. But Race seemed to be in a place where he'd do that as either alignment, especially given the banning. And I don't think its necessarily a safe bet to always assume mafia is going to be more passive. Silent made the first serious accusatory post of the game and put himself in the spotlight. I liked the post just because I think that Kelsier's non-contribution would look scummy to a newcomer, but the start of the game is the easiest time to "contribute". All I've gathered so far is that Kelsier seems annoyed from the state of the game and can't be assed to start playing. I don't really read Kelsier either way. Also I can disagree with a post's conclusions and still townread somebody for their post. Case in point, I don't really agree with your reads or any of the reasoning attached to them, but I'm still very thankful for something to comment on and will give a town read for it. It's magic! Hah, sorry, I think you're misunderstanding where I'm going a little bit. That's on me, I didn't explain very well. My point was that there's a difference between saying that you disagree with someone's points and yet townread them for it and implying people are scummy for not doing so. On reflection I think I might have read more into this particular quote than you had intended, I got the impression you were throwing shade on people for it, so apologies about that: Since earlier in the thread J roc and Mderg posted suspicions on Silentwarrior based on that post and the day has been so slow, I wanted to see if a wagon would form. Not much came from it. Skynx said Silentwarrior was suspicious and Mderg reaffirmed his suspicion. As for my choice not to post my thoughts before getting other people's. Are you saying that I'm afraid of putting forth my own thoughts before seeing other people's or something else? I don't think that will be too much of an issue. Actually I think the reason I've come up here in the first place is that I've actually put out some of the more distinctive things. It was just more the fact that you asked for opinions before putting your own opinion, which meant nobody could comment on your opinion whilst doing so. *shrug* My point here for Mderg is that he's pushed three slots that I feel are town slots. What kind of deception do you think I'm trying to slip under the radar here? Anyone can read his filter in 30 seconds and see whether he has posted about Race bannon or Scott. The fact that you were highlighting him pushing on scott, yet he hasn't even addressed scott himself. He just wanted rid of Race because of the spamming. I don't think its a very fair claim to make given the circumstances and came across a little as trying to make him look worse with a reasoning that doesn't hold up particularly well. On August 01 2016 17:25 mderg wrote: Too lazy to continue like that, so here are some general thoughts: I don't like how you're giving town points to everyone who's calling out BTDT. I agree that BTDT wanting to lynch Race before the replacement was scummy. But anyone would agree on that, it's such an easy and obvious point to make that I don't think it warrants town points at all. You're probably right. The issue right now is that there's not a lot of 'events' to draw conclusions from so I'm just working with what's there. :-\ Legitimately dunno who to lynch right now honestly which is really bad with so little time remaining. I'm finding it interesting that people are hating on scott's posts so much right now. I'm not liking his position on silent but apart from that I'm not seeing anything obviously problematic. Can anyone go over their reasonings on that? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 00:09 Grackaroni wrote: See I just don't get it. I think the most obvious assumption here is that Scott actually believed that Race Bannon was town for those reasons prior to joining and then wrote that post regardless of what alignment RB is. Though I don't entirely agree that scott necessarily believed that...its still a very cute way to enter and I absolutely agree its something you write regardless of RB's alignment given that you just replaced him. You make it sound like a revelation and it sounds a lot better than going "okay I'm town". On August 02 2016 00:24 Grackaroni wrote: Now the formatting is really going to get out of control! If you really think that it's non-alignment indicative, why do you like Stutters for scum reading him and dislike me for town reading him? You townread stutters for this post and subsequent questioning of me? Isn't he making an argument that Race Bannon had changed his meta because he rolled scum? I wasn't actually townreading him for scumreading Race. I was townreading him because it feels like a very town mentality to be effectively going "come on, he can do better than this, being stupid like this is harmful to the game" rather than just dismissing him as being an idiot. I didn't read into it that he was saying that RB had changed his meta because he rolled scum, just that he was changing is meta general to be less readable. In fact he specifically says in your quote that RB has been coherent as both alignments before. That's how I read that post anyway. That's kind of where I'm at though. I can't discern much out of the filters since they're all very short and talk about things that I don't find very telling. My first feeling was that Silent's post seemed townie and that scum would probably want to push him. It doesn't make for a convincing case, but those are my feels lol. Ah. I didn't expect to get much from saying that I thought the post was fine, so I wanted to do my way to see if I could get more information, which I really didn't. This part of the post actually seems quite contrived to me. I wrote Scott instead of Race Bannon just because he was the person that filled that slot. What could I possibly have to gain from this sleight of hand? My problem with silent isn't so much that he opened that way (though its still pretty awful) but that he still feels that way. Yeah, I understand the point he's making about Kelsier being lazy there and not contributing; but its fairly easy to see a town being wound up as much as anyone at the RB stuff. Fair enough on the second point. As for the third here...what you'd have to gain is to strengthen your case a little on mderg. I'm just tugging at things that don't fit here really. It just felt a rather unfair accusation to say they were trying to lynch a replacement when their vote was on the replacee in an apparent effort to lynch a spammer; particularly when they hadn't come back to comment on said replacement. Its a habit of mine to try and pick at things that seem a little deceptive. On August 02 2016 03:11 beentheredonethat wrote: Are my previous posts asking those questions? If there are specific questions open, let me know. Yes, that stuff helps quite a bit thanks. I'll have a think if I got any specific questions based on what you said, I was just wanting something, ANYTHING, about your thought processes at that point because I could do is sit there and go "yeah this post is bad" without having anything more to go on. On August 02 2016 03:18 Skynx wrote: Rels should be the lynch I'm afraid. No one really sticks out to me. This is a total waste of a lynch vote...just saying... On August 02 2016 03:39 Skynx wrote: This Grack vs btdt/stutters is very unlikely tvtt, please keep going. Quite possibly. This whole argument is very messy but doesn't feel townie, there's something distinctly shady in there. On everything else: I can kinda see where people are going with scott now. Yeah, I guess I can see where you're going but I also don't like that wagon much. It feels really bad right now. Especially since there's been no real attempt to get people off it. It feels like nobody cares that scott is going to get lynched, which is bad because if he was mafia I'd expect a much stronger effort to get those votes off and push someone else given how weak said wagon is. One positive thing I can say about scott has already sort of been addressed by BTDT just before actually, more specifically: if scott is mafia it'd have been super easy for scott to go "okay guys, I'm in now, give me some time to catch up and think things out" and then just drop into lurking for most of the rest of D1 whilst his mafia buddies worked at getting the votes onto someone else before he returned to the thread. Posting as soon as he got in is a risky play if he actually is scum. Very much AGAINST lynching scott today. Though this doesn't put him in the clear, I'm still bouncing back and forth on the posts he's made; I'm just against it because it doesn't feel like this is the way the game would play out if scott was scum. Also I doubt I'm lynching Stutters today. Just putting that down there. Also at present: - silent has done sod all since confirming his feelings on Kelsier - Rels is going to get himself replaced or modkilled because of total inactivity Can we expect a replacement or a modkill for Rels if he doesn't turn up at all for the entire day? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I don't like silent's posts in the thread so far and he's nowhere to be seen. I don't want to get in trouble for not voting at all so for now (and in case I don't get time to come back on later) I'm parking my vote there. If nothing else it dials up the pressure on him to actually post something more. ##Vote: silentwarrior | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
The second point is actually pretty good. Didn't notice that he's pretty much the only other person he's been concerned about. How do you just 'forget' someone you've got suspicions about? I'm back and forth over what I think of scott anyway which means point three can go either way. Eh. Observations on tone in point 4 are pretty good. I like. Enough to rule Rels entirely out of a D1 lynch for me at least. Still thinking on silent's recent post. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 06:24 -Celestial- wrote: Observations on tone in point 4 are pretty good. I like. EBWOP: Not that I necessarily AGREE on all them. Still thinking about some. But it makes me think Rels' heart is in the right place. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Can anyone provide a concise, clear, convincing argument to switch right now? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
For clarification there, before someone decides to misrepresent me. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 06:36 Rels wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=23 I already mentioned your first post on that page here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=23#447 Second post: His scott read is yeah, pretty shallow. But calling it non-evolving is a stretch when the three posts of his you quoted appeared to be him first stating the read. Then elaborating on it. Then apparently trying to clarify what he meant when someone misunderstood what he was getting at. This post I quite like. Point 1 is alright. Though I would note that if mderg is guilty because of that then BTDT is even guiltier for wanting to lynch even though we were getting a replacement; though he did come back and admit it was a terrible post anyway later (though I'm not sure just admitting fault there is necessarily town-motivated; he put himself in a hell of a bind, the only option was to backtrack). Point 2 is good. Point 3 appears to be based off a feeling of hypocrisy unless I'm not getting what you're getting at; that is to say he's calling out scott's posting for being shallow whilst his own reading on scott is pretty shallow. But I'm not sure that necessarily makes mderg scum. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 06:48 Stutters695 wrote: Out of curiosity, what did you see in his post that makes you less sure? Before he was a plynch essentially, now he's someone I actively want to lynch. Mostly the stuff on scott and BTDT. I don't necessarily AGREE with him on everything there but the tone felt less scummier than the rest of what he's posted to date. I'm still pretty content to see him lynched though. Feels like a reasonable shot of hitting mafia. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 06:54 -Celestial- wrote: I already mentioned your first post on that page here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=23#447 Second post: His scott read is yeah, pretty shallow. But calling it non-evolving is a stretch when the three posts of his you quoted appeared to be him first stating the read. Then elaborating on it. Then apparently trying to clarify what he meant when someone misunderstood what he was getting at. This post I quite like. Point 1 is alright. Though I would note that if mderg is guilty because of that then BTDT is even guiltier for wanting to lynch even though we were getting a replacement; though he did come back and admit it was a terrible post anyway later (though I'm not sure just admitting fault there is necessarily town-motivated; he put himself in a hell of a bind, the only option was to backtrack). Point 2 is good. Point 3 appears to be based off a feeling of hypocrisy unless I'm not getting what you're getting at; that is to say he's calling out scott's posting for being shallow whilst his own reading on scott is pretty shallow. But I'm not sure that necessarily makes mderg scum. EBWOP *I quite like the feel of | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:04 Stutters695 wrote: Pretty straightforward that it's a plynch. Well its got a little more meat on it than just that given that I didn't like his position on KSC either. But the total lack of anything else to go on is making this very frustrating. :-\ | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:05 silentwarrior wrote: Rels, what's your take on stutters and my case about him? I read yours on mderg and agree with most of what you wrote, but Stutter's is so blatantly mafia. Also, can others also comment on it? If we leave aside the fact I think you're kinda scummy...honestly you have a bit of a point that he's not really said much about you. In a normal game I'd say it was very weird but given the rock-bottom activity level its significantly harder to read. That being said I don't think its out of line where he said about lynching a lurker and then voted you. You weren't in thread for ages at that point. You were lurking. After throwing out a few scummy posts throwing probably-undeserved shade on KSC. It wasn't a great look for you. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:22 silentwarrior wrote: That's not the thing that sticks out about the vote. It's that he dosen't mention me at all, then without much explanation votes for me, quoted your vote only 4 minutes after you posted it. Didn't say anything at all himself. He didn't need to. Like he said he'd be fine lynching into inactives. Implied to be for policy. I think its a pretty poor reason to get on a wagon at this stage (we do at least have SOMETHING to go on) but still...its a reason. Also, you can't still think it's still undeserved shade at KSC? He was in thread not too long ago and still didn't contribute. I'd say some of that shade is pretty deserved by now. Your posts at the time? Absolutely it was undeserved shade. Now? Hmm...you know what? Let me re-read KSC's filter. Give me five-ten minutes to have a think about this. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
KSC's entire filter amounts to commenting on going for a wine run. Calling the game stupid followed by wanting to get rid of Race (which is totally NAI without a flip, Race was being a pain in the arse) and actively voting for him saying he wasn't putting up with that garbage. Then posting he was back after Race was banned, claiming town. Acting totally flippant towards Lunatic (which I was initially towning him for, because mafia isn't so flippant, but I don't know now because he's done literally nothing since). Then calling the game terrible. Saying Skynx is okay but he doesn't like anyone else. And then saying he's busy in work and probably won't be around for deadline. He didn't even change his vote off scott after the switch. What the hell? Possible shenanie option right here? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:35 Grackaroni wrote: I'm seeing a lot of squirming within Rels' scum reads between celestial and stutters, so I would beg town to follow through on this mderg lynch. If you think I'm scum, shenanie onto me right now. Because this game is silly as hell. Incidentally, mderg just transferred the kill vote to himself I think. Though an updated count would be great to confirm. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:40 silentwarrior wrote: Rules say most recent, so he was set from before his change. I think im the one that's set now. Im gonna vote mderg for that reason. ##Unvote ##Vote: Mderg See above. The votes went Scott on 3, then mderg hit 3, then you hit 3 when mderg switched and scott went to 2. Leaving mderg as the one as first in queue to be lynched. Now mderg is on 4. That's the usual rule from when I used to play around here last year anyway. On August 02 2016 07:41 scott31337 wrote: I really think a mderg lynch gives us a lot more information. It's curious you say this. Honestly I agree with you. Stutters' reasoning is highly questionable on that point. I think silent is a better chance of hitting mafia though. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:45 Stutters695 wrote: Itt we make meaningless associations before the flip. Association reads based on assuming a guy who actively put himself into the vote lead is going to flip mafia. Yeah its kinda funny. Honestly at this point I almost inclined to want people to shenanie onto either myself or KSC. Just to see what would happen. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:47 Grackaroni wrote: Actually I just noticed that the entire Silent train is those 3 people so ignore that last part. Scum probably wouldn't stack all 3 on one person. If scum team was me, Stutters and mderg I'd probably be going for BTDT right now; not silent. He's a far easier mislynch if only because silent is actually here and BTDT isn't. Plus there's a free Skynx vote on him to be had. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
KSC because of reasons I put on the other page. He's done basically jack all, all game. Even after the switch. Me because this game is getting very silly and frankly people's reaction to my flip would be funny. Though it'd ruin my 3/3 survival record so far. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 07:55 Grackaroni wrote: I know. I just don't think that you doing so precludes you from being mafia, as stutters suggested. It doesn't preclude him. But its a pretty strong indicator. Mafia is usually more careful about not actually hammering themselves like mderg just did. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
How about that mderg/Celestial/Stutters scum team guys? They're looking really twitchy and defending him really hard! *facepalm* Okay, Rels just jumped right into the red for me. That was either an utterly absurd case of tunnel-vision or actively leading the thread on a merry dance to mislynch a townie. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
mderg shouldn't have died there. What a damn waste. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 08:08 Stutters695 wrote: GG, sorry Mderg. Jroc, wtf Yeah that was weird as hell. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 08:34 J Roc wrote: Was against a mderg lynch the whole time Honestly? For a while I personally wasn't. Hence I asked to be convinced and was open to switching. Rels didn't convince me so I stayed where I was. And the more time went on the more sure I got more and more uncomfortable with it. Which is why I pulled up the possibility of shenanies. X-( | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
mderg (4): scott31337, Rels, Grackaroni, Slientwarrior Almost definitely at least one mafia in there as far as I'm concerned. I'll have to look through the votes and vote switches properly. But no way can I see no mafia on that wagon. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 09:48 MoosyDoosy wrote: hm Hmm? And where the hell have you been? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Evidently, given the lack of voting. -_- | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 09:52 MoosyDoosy wrote: yessir. do you still think rels is in the red? More or less his entire contribution to the game so far has been to focus mderg, a now flipped town, like a laser and get him lynched. So yes, I'd be an idiot not to be incredibly suspicious of him. Though how much of it is just because I'm still pissed off about the vote is questionable. I'll have a better idea tomorrow. I'm going to re-read his filter then. If I was to take a more measured approach I might say that Rels' focus on mderg left him absolutely zero wriggle room when mderg flipped town. Which is an incredibly risky position to put yourself in as a mafia. Not to mention the thread didn't really need driving in that way if he was mafia because it was all still very up in the air. But then again he did leave himself a bit of an out when he said he might just be super tunneled. On the balance of it he looks awful post-flip. But WIFOM strikes again. I'm hoping to be able to put together a full post of my thoughts by tomorrow anyway. Honestly concerned I could well be dead by Day 2. And right now I've had a bit too much wine to be properly coherent for something like that. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 10:12 J Roc wrote: Wouldn't lynch you at this point. Why would I? Rels needs to be looked at much harder because I disagreed with him on mderg but Scott is scum. Honestly I could be comfortable with a D2 scott lynch at this point. Previously I was back and forth pretty regularly in my head. Which resulted in my really not wanting to D1 lynch him. But given that cute little thing about a mafia team consisting of me, mderg and Stutters; after which he more or less buggered off; I'm finding him pretty dodgy. Like...that was a super easy way to make it just that bit harder to prevent the mderg mislynch. But one which he can easily sweep under the carpet and dismiss later on. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 10:14 MoosyDoosy wrote: A fair amount of your bloodthirst for Rels is from the wrong D1 lynch, the fact that you changed your vote, and tbh probably the wine. Er...I didn't change my vote. I have a soul read situation with Rels and I'm like 80% sure he's town right now. Please don't do it like this. Come up with something better than a 'feeling' and explain how his actions were town. Because this is almost literally what happened between a couple of people and prplhz in a previous game I played. In fact its weirding me out a bit where this is going right now. There was this big thing about how people were 'mind-melding' with him and heavily town reading him because of vague feelings; totally overlooking the fact that everything he had actually DONE amounted to jack all but being afk a bunch and then some harm to town. He turned out to be mafia. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 10:19 MoosyDoosy wrote: A lot of my reads align with scott. A lot of Rels' reads align with scott. I really wish people would stop being super weird about this scott 'read'. Because it wasn't really a read. It was a list of people who were voting on Race before the replacement that he was going to look into. That's totally uninformative as a post to quote as evidence that you're townreading him. And yes, there could have easily been someone on the Race wagon purely because it was a super, super easy lynch to make, he was winding people up. But I don't think you can really draw much from it at all unless you have literally no other information to go on. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 10:32 J Roc wrote: Like seriousness. Nothing race bannon did was alignment indicative, nothing. So you can't say he was low hanging fruit like he was confirmed town. He can play like that as either alignment. To be fair I don't think Moosy is necessarily implying Race was/scott is town. Race was low hanging fruit whichever alignment you were. If I was on his scum team and he was screwing about like that I'd be on that plynch train faster than you can say 'bus' because it was clear he wasn't going to be any help whichever alignment he was, and the free town points for a mafia kill would have been too much of a temptation to ignore. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 10:37 MoosyDoosy wrote: Oops you're right. xP But the vote changed from your target and you didn't get who you wanted to kill. I'm actually not too bothered about that specifically. My target was scummy enough to lynch but its not like I wasn't open to changing my mind, hell I explicitly asked for a convincing argument against mderg. My frustration mainly comes from that fact that as the deadline approached it became fairly blatant that there was no way mderg was going to flip mafia. I mean, that accidental hammer on himself should have set EVERYONE'S alarm bells ringing. Ultimately Rels came up with an argument that was okay at first glance but the more I looked at it and the more I looked at the way the thread was going as the deadline approached; something seemed off. And yet nobody else seemed to see it except Stutters. For the record...I'll have to do a check on his filter but right now I'm feeling like I'm absolutely not interested in lynching Stutters D2 unless he suddenly goes horribly bad. On August 02 2016 10:39 MoosyDoosy wrote: Congrats! Now who was on both wagons. Unless I'm missing something then nobody? Final count was this: On August 02 2016 08:03 Shapelog wrote: mderg (4): scott31337 (1): KelsierSC, I don't see any duplicates there. You going somewhere with this? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 10:58 Stutters695 wrote: Next up will either be silent or general vca. I'll let you guys choose. Personally I'd rather you bang out something on silent first. I'm starting to put my own thoughts together in order to leave a legacy post before EoN just in case I get blown away. Other people's thoughts are useful. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I mean I was looking pretty suspiciously at everyone on that mderg wagon, of course, but I've been focusing the peevishness on Rels so far because he led that train. Grack I was scumfeeling in my first analysis, he's kinda drifted about a bit since then back and forth. But seeing it all laid out like that is very tempting. I'll have to look into his filter myself tomorrow quite a bit before I'm totally convinced though. No substitute for first-hand checking. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 11:04 MoosyDoosy wrote: I'm fairly certain Stutters caught onto what I saw which makes me happy. I'll check by every now and then but I'm basically done with posting for the night. You're implying that Grack drove the mislynch train right to the deadline and then tried to step back from the controls at the last moment to try to save himself on D2? I could probably buy into that tbh. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 11:06 MoosyDoosy wrote: Please take note of the names that pop up within the quotes. Celestial, if you'd be so kind as to look at the names that commonly pop up and cross check them with the vote count that would be great. Well off your last set of quotes I'm assuming you're implying at least Grack and silent. Grack: Kelsier (31/7 01:51 BST) > mderg (1/8 00:20) > Unvote (1/8 18:02) > Lunaticman (1/8 19:27) > Stutters (1/8 19:57) > mderg (1/8 22:30) silent: Kelsier (31/7 11:39) > Stutters (1/8 21:53) > mderg (1/8 23:40) ...both Grack and silent were on the same people at the same time on three separate occasions. Surely it can't be that easy? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Kelsier - Grack at 01:51, silent ~10 hours later Stutters - Grack at 19:57, silent ~2 hours later mderg - Grack at 22:30, silent an hour later | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
We lynch Grack. If he flips scum we lynch silent. That's two scum right? Like...I'm not missing something blindingly obvious here? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 11:33 Stutters695 wrote: FWIW I wouldn't put too much credence in the vote patterns for them (especially Grack unless you find him scummy to begin with). Gracks KSC vote was clearly a joke at the very start of the game. When Silent came back and was a potential lynch target, he had to come out somewhat strong (regardless of alignment) and I was certainly an easy choice to pump something out on. The last vote by silent was to save himself so of course he'd pick the other wagon. Thing is I was scumfeeling both of them in my very first set of reads. I was back and forth on them quite a bit, especially after engaging with Grack for a bit, but never entirely convinced of innocence. That voting pattern has a hell of a kick to it though. I should go to bed in any case and sit down and calmly work through my full analysis tomorrow. Its 4am and my mind is all over the place. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Also: I did wait too long for shenannies! If you wanted shennanies you should have started them earlier. I brought up a possible shenanie target a solid 27 minutes before EoD. I then again brought up the possibility of shenanies onto either myself or KSC thirteen minutes before EoD. Stop trying to pretend that nobody had starting looking into it before it was too late when its easily proven to be a lie. Nobody expressed real interest. In either. Until mderg said about it eight minutes before deadline. Both were with plenty of time for anyone to start saying "alright, I'd be up for that". I didn't start any actual movement myself because at that point I was sitting on the next-highest wagon in the hopes there was a chance to still save mderg. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together. KSC/Grack/silent Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar. This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 12:43 Grackaroni wrote: I think it's at least as face palm as my squirming theory. This is utter nonsense. Because one is based on feelings and one is based off some cold, hard facts. Your squirming theory was based on an unflipped association read between three people. All of whom, by your own pointing out, were on the same wagon (a damn risky thing for mafia to do, even to save one of their own, safest thing would have been to have one bus late on). And one of whom actually managed to hammer himself and is now confirmed town after being lynched. It had zero basis on any actual evidence and has been shown to be rubbish because mderg is confirmed to be not mafia. On the other hand the thing Moosy pointed out (and I've detailed above) is based on actual, verifiable votes made. Not wild guesses based on future flips. It is a FACT that the two of you were consistently on votes with each other around the same time. It is also a FACT that silent consistently followed you onto the votes. I'm going to look through filters tomorrow properly to see the excuses given for the vote changes; but the fact that those events actually happened cannot be disputed and it looks dodgy as hell. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Right now I'm comfortable with a Grack lynch D2. But I'll look over everything tomorrow to see if anything else pops up. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 12:43 -Celestial- wrote: Tinfoil hat theory. Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together. KSC/Grack/silent Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar. This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere. I guess scott/Grack/silent is also possible. KSC votes were to try to do something to counteract the RB nonsense and give some kind of alternative wagon, especially if they expected a replacement given how things were going. Neither were ever on the RB/scott wagon at all despite it being a super easy plynch to make. I'm kinda making wild guesses here now. My mind is seriously drifting off into all kinds of weird ideas. Very tired. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 13:03 -Celestial- wrote: I guess scott/Grack/silent is also possible. KSC votes were to try to do something to counteract the RB nonsense and give some kind of alternative wagon, especially if they expected a replacement given how things were going. Neither were ever on the RB/scott wagon at all despite it being a super easy plynch to make. I'm kinda making wild guesses here now. My mind is seriously drifting off into all kinds of weird ideas. Very tired. See, Grack. THIS is facepalm worthy-stuff and I'll openly admit it. At least if I can't find anything to support these ideas tomorrow that is. Because I'm making a lot of assumptions and stuff when I'm far too tired to be thinking properly. The fact your voting patterns match, however, is an actual thing that happened. ...I'm really going to bed now. Its ten past five in the morning. -_- | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 13:08 Grackaroni wrote: Aha! I predict you shall be baited yet. Since when is voting next to each other for three lynches a mafia strategy? Its a poor strategy. But silent is a newbie. So anything is possible. I say your cold, hard "facts" are cracking at the seams, while my feels were reals, indeed! Your "feels were reals"? Wait...you still thing mderg could be part of a me/Stutters/mderg scumteam? Despite him flipping town already? You what? Serious answer: (they're the same thing regardless. Both theories were based off "verifiable votes" and wild guesses based on future flips. Once I flip town your theory will look equally silly.) They're not the same thing. Because I had no 'theories' in the post you quoted. I was simply expressing facts that Moosy drew my attention to. It is a FACT that that voting pattern happened. And you're trying really far, far too hard to dismiss this. My ACTUAL theories, meanwhile, I have already just quoted above as being totally wild, unsubstantiated guesses. Proudly self-admittedly so. Though I'll probably have a dig about tomorrow to see if any posts fit either pattern. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 13:10 Grackaroni wrote: Lol go to sleep Celestial. That's probably a good idea. I legitimately have a headache right now. I slept really badly last night too so I've had like three hours sleep in the last forty hours or so. Goodnight. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Also there's no way this Rels/Grack thing going on is TvT. No way. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I dunno how that got so mangled there. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
See you close to the night deadline! | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Stutters - Town. Unless he's done an absolutely incredible job in pocketing me he's town. He pointed out some stuff I liked early on which is why I was townleaning him in my D1 big set of reads and hasn't done anything to undermine that. Logic and progression in-thread seems to be coming from a town mentality. The stuff around deadline absolutely reinforces my belief that he's town. No mafia plays fast and loose like that around deadline when the wagon is already on a town player. None. No way, no chance. MoosyDoosy - Probably town. I liked his content early on but there was something about his tone I didn't like. Post-flip he's been fantastic as far as I'm concerned. Seeming to come from a really town mentality. Kinda relies on what Grac flips though, if Grac flips something other than red I'd be dropping him back down to neutral. Skynx - Kinda liked some of his earlier stuff. His reply to my big read post seemed reasonable enough. Calling for a lynch on Rels as well which is kinda bad (since Rels was looking at being replaced/modkilled at the time) but the reasoning is understandable (didn't like any other target). Calling out the votes being still on scott is okay. Calling out Grack vs btdt/stutters as not being a townfight is really good imo. Reasoning for vote seems alright. Reply to tinfoil idea is fine. His latest set of reads seem fine too and I'd be reasonably comfortable lynching into his scum reads right now. Lunaticman - Stuff early on seemed pretty town-based. He was doing the right things and didn't do anything that raised any series red flags. I didn't like the fawning over me too much to be honest. Felt like he was trying to buddy up and pocket me but eh. I feel like the push to lynch Rels whilst he was inactive was a total waste but based on the comment about how Rels dodged five town lynches by being inactive in a previous game its forgivable; and I don't think someone wanting to look to lynch inactive mafia is unreasonable given how horribly inactive this game was for a long time. I wasn't entirely on board with his feelings about RB and scott but I do understand where his opinion is coming from so that's alright. Voting Rels is NAI at that point. Post-flip list is alright (though I'm really never a fan of people including themselves in lists of town aligned people; anyone can do it and it comes across to me as a blatant attempt at a psychological manipulation tactic of "doesn't my name look good next to these townies?") but nothing special. I'm still not liking his feeling on Scott though. The stuff with Grac and Rels is alright; I don't think there absolutely HAS to be mafia between Rels/Grac but there almost certainly is. I disagree with his latest point on Rels, in fact I think the way Rels went about it (i.e. completely full-on) is one of the few saving graces for Rels. Townlean. J Roc - Seemed to be going in the right direction of trying to solve the game as of my first list. Not much has changed since then. Probably my only concern is that he's pretty low content. Townlean for now. scott31337 - Dead null. His posts are okay but nothing special. The involvement in the mderg lynch was really nasty, as was agreeing with Grack about that 'squirming' thing because it was all based on horrible reasoning. Hasn't really posted much post-flip either. Not really putting an awful lot of pressure on anything now. Dunno, don't really like but I got way more scumfeel on other people right now. beentheredonethat - Didn't like him last time. Since then he seems to have been coming from a bit more of a townie mindset (though I'm not convinced he's actually on the right path) and didn't even try to defend his reasoning that people were calling out as bad which comes across as kinda townie (mafia is more concerned about looking bad). I somewhat lean towards some of the recent sentiment that he's just low hanging fruit as far as a lynch is concerned; I don't think he's the best chance of hitting mafia if I had to lynch someone right this second but he's a very very dirty null. KelsierSC - Done practically jack all. Said he wasn't going to deal with RB which is fine but has done practically nothing since the substitution either. Very dirty inactive tbh. Scum lean. Rels - Really dirty after that mislynch. I called him out to convince me on mderg and he never really did, just pointed at the previous arguments which weren't great and, as now proven with the flip, were dead wrong. Busy fighting with Grack recently in an argument that I'm pretty sure isn't TvT; though whether it's an attempt to double-bus after that early lynch or a Scum vs Town fight I don't know. Sheeping Skynx's list is interesting but doesn't really help much. Only thing keeping me from a heavier red read than this is that I don't know if mafia goes ham like that on getting someone lynched D1 when the situation was already super fluid and a gentler approach would have had the same result. Because its left him very exposed. On the other hand he knows this and might figure he can get away with it in a newbie game with some less experienced players and just bank on name value. On the other hand...WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM Scum lean. silentwarrior - One-page filter. Huge tunnel on KSC right from the beginning for reasons that I felt were reaching. Hasn't really improved much. Now wants Stutters' head for reasons I don't much like either, again it felt like reaching incredibly far for a reason to want to lynch someone. Weak case that was easily explained. Flips to mderg to guarantee the lynch which is NAI since he was the other train. The voting pattern thing with Grack is weird as hell honestly. I'm not sure if it's TOO obvious or just a huge mafia mistake. Last post just looks like an OMGUS on Moosy tbh. And I don't like the way he brought up the thing about me and Stutters "buddying up" considering that the previous thing about us "buddying up" was based on the defence of mderg who flipped goddamn town. Really reaching for excuses to read scum into people that I have strong town indications on. Do. Not. Like. Lynch him. Grackaroni - All the stuff lately has been pretty poor. I've had scumfeel on him all game. REALLY didn't like the whole "squirming" thing around the deadline. I like the take Stutters had on him a couple pages ago which is a decent summary of all the problems with him so far. Trying to throw confusion onto actual factual votes made was just nonsense, you can question the conclusions drawn, but not the actual votes made. Out of time to make a bigger case but most of what Stutters said last night in that big post is pretty reasonable. Lynch? Right now I'd be happy with a lynch between silent and Grack. I'd say Grack for preference simply because firstly I think he'd be a more informative lynch and secondly because I think he's the more dangerous of the two. I'd take a side-option on Rels; he's an incredibly dangerous potential mafia but I'm not quite as sure about him right now as I am the other two. People I want to see more from: J Roc - You said you'd post post-flip thoughts "when you got home". You haven't. Please post some. Kelsier - Post something. Anything. scott - You're looking a little feeble. I'd like to see some extra aggression since I'm sure you can. Okay done. Just in time before the deadline. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Are we supposed to have stopped talking now? I thought deadline was like an hour twenty ago. There hasn't even been a message to tell everyone to stop talking. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 03 2016 09:28 Grackaroni wrote: Shapelog has probably run into some difficulties. I think we should probably avoid talking about game related things until the night post. The night is dark and full of terrors. Yeah I was kinda just...more bothered by the lack of an actual deadline slamming shut honestly. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 03 2016 09:36 kitaman27 wrote: Day Two Grackaroni the Vanilla Townie has died. Stutters695 the Vanilla Townie has died. Apologies for the delay! The deadline is Thursday, Aug 04 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). You have to vote! Okay IDEK here now. There's obviously a vig, can you claim and tell us which of the two you shot and why? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I think it was a good shot based on the info we had but it was clearly wrong because he's flipped town. Given the whole Rels/Grack thing earlier and the fact that I'm pretty sure that wasn't TvT I'd still be comfortable lynching Rels today. Maybe silent but I'm a bit more meh on that now. Grack flipping green means the whole vote association thing that Moosy led me to doesn't really work and kicks Moosy down quite a few pegs for me. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 03 2016 12:11 MoosyDoosy wrote: I actually don't think vig should claim here. As it is, there's really no need to claim so early unless they're under a lot of pressure. I guess an argument can be made that holding onto the vig claim (that isn't going to be challenged unless mafia REALLY needs the mislynch and are willing to risk a mafia life for it) will allow for a potential impact reveal later and make for a less easy N2 shot which would just be on the confirmed town vig (unless there's a doc in the game, in which case they just protect the vig from the shadows). Problem is that we have very little to go on right now, so the extra info could be useful. :-\ That's assuming Vig is one shot. Vig is one shot this game, right? I can't actually see it in the OPs but vig have always been one shot in the newbie games I've played I think. IDK. Game is hard. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Definitely not looking as deep a red colour as before though. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 03 2016 20:17 J Roc wrote: Unless there is a counter claim we arent lynching rels. And this is a really bad play if rels is scum as it would at best trade out a used blue for himself. Rels is vig. This. Agreed. To be honest Skynx's reaction to the claim is really weird. It'd be a total waste to fakeclaim as mafia here and a lot of people, including myself, were looking at Rels for scum. So its really unlikely there'll be a counter claim. Its a good early claim to prevent wasting the day faffing about over Rels.In light of all that's gone on I'm going to have to re-read everything later. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 03 2016 14:08 scott31337 wrote: We got into a car accident today buying another vehicle (fucking my luck right? We're out of the hospital now but my brain isn't playing mafia tonight - it checked out a few hours ago. I took the day off work tomorrow so I'll read over then and give my thoughts. God almighty, hope you and everyone else there are alright. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 04 2016 08:17 beentheredonethat wrote: ...although his posting volume has dropped from D1 into a more lazy D2 so far. Yeah I'm sorry about that. Between the fact I didn't go to bed until like 5am last night, plus the fact I've been pretty under the weather today, plus the fact that its a Wednesday (and Wednesday for me means new anime episodes and new TV episodes), plus the way the game is going...just not felt like starting to filter dive again today. -_- I'm going to come back tomorrow and try to dig through filters. Originally I liked Lunaticman so had been mentally setting him aside but since a train appears to be getting rolling on him I guess he'll be top priority. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
- Two page filter. A bit thin really but I guess that's the nature of this game, there's some super-low content posters. That being said its less of a filter than Stutters or Grack and they're both DEAD so...yeah, not great. - Mentions lynching Grac 'from what happened last game'. NAI honestly. If I was being REALLY cynical I'd say this is a super easy way to set oneself up for a soft push 'oh he was like this last game in these ways etc etc' but I don't think its that. Talks a bit about it in the next post too. I just see this as NAI salt really. - Bunch of nothing. Then replies to my comic con post. NAI at the time but in light of the later stuff talking about how wonderful my posts are and stuff..is this a start of a pocketing attempt maybe? Very tentative but eh I got nothing to this point. - Town's RB for the garbage he was posting. Honestly I don't particularly like this. I'm one of those firmly believing all that RB crap is NAI. Forced read maybe? I was dismissing this as something that didn't matter last time but I guess there's a chance it might. - Next post was one I thought was a strong point towards excluding a Lunatic/RB team but I'm not so sure anymore. My basis for that was that he wouldn't undermine a fellow mafia by saying "oh just ignore his reads, they won't be productive" so early on but now that I think on it isn't that just a stupidly easy way to deal with a rogue 'crazy' mafia ally? "Oh ignore this guy because he's craaaaaazy, haha, he's probably town but he's crazy. So you can safely just let him sit there under the radar and forget about him." I dunno anymore. It could go either way. - Complains about Race's spam. NAI. If he's town then the spam is frustrating. If he's scum and Race is town then its an easy call to make (although I'd more have expected him to say that RB is scummy for the spam than town if that were the case). If both are scum then a "come on, what the hell, man?" isn't unexpected to either kick Race into shape or to distance himself from Race. - Next is the reply to Skynx. Originally I liked this. I felt a mafia would be more aggressive in pocketing (if Skynx is town) or wouldn't want to put themselves next to a team member so early (if Skynx is mafia). Lets go super cynical again: could be more gentle pocketing. I don't think so though. - Next post is actually super weird on reflection. This one: On August 01 2016 04:36 Lunaticman wrote: I don't know how you came to that conclusion but since he is being replaced can you please elaborate on this read. Also this is a good way to get town cred now that he is getting replaced. Lunatic posts that he thinks Race is town because of the spamming. Grack posts, after Race got banned, that he reckons Race was town. Then Lunatic jumps down Grack's throat with "I don't know how you came to that conclusion" and rather sharply points out that its an easy way to get town points now that RB is being replaced. Um...maybe the exact same way you did? Your first read on RB was town, then as soon as people challenged that you backed away a bit, and then further by criticising him but never actually going as far as calling him scum for it. Originally I gave this post a town pass with only a brief glance on the basis it was someone actually DOING something constructive and challenging someone. But the content isn't all that great in light of Grack's town flip, nor is the consistency with previous posts. - Defending BTDT against JRoc. That was a godawful post by BTDT honestly and still is. Lunatic tries to give an excuse by saying that BTDT is trying to say there's no way to trust RB's reads but that somewhat misses the point of what BTDT was saying. Then calls is moot, brushing all that aside. Policy lynch comment is kinda NAI; could be a genuine town thought at just not liking policy lynches, could be a scum looking for an easy way to call others scum on the basis of "you don't have a real reason for your vote!" - Question to Moosy was genuinely good. I was interested in why myself (don't think I played with Moosy in any of my previous games, though I'd have to check, and I tend not to go digging for meta that I don't have personal experience of). Mentioning cutting back on posting isn't great tbh, easy lurk excuse but this whole game been full of lurkers. - Lunatic challenging Kelsier is kinda towny here. However the way he goes about it is a bit weird too. Rather than attacking the not wanting to play because of RB (which, whilst understandable, is very unhelpful), instead he's attacking the vote on RB itself. Calling the vote on RB a "mistake". Which we don't know. RB/scott is not confirmed town. Then makes a push on Kelsier saying he'd be okay voting Kelsier. That's okay I guess, a bit premature maybe but its D1 with an inactive thread and pushing an inactive wagon isn't the worst thing in the world if you got nothing else. - More pocketing me maybe? Or just genuinely liking the post? Stated last time I didn't like the fawning really. This post is a whole load of nothing anyway. Saying nothing new. - This back and forth with Skynx is getting weird too. He's really focusing on Grack quite a bit here but placing himself very middle-ground on it. "Probably town but he's fooled me once before". So...who exactly ARE you red reading at this point? I'm clearly green to Lunatic here. Grack was red now neutral. RB was red now neutral. Where are the reds? Is this a game of 'everyone is town and null, isn't that nice?' - Next one again praising me but gently pushing off criticism of RB/scott. Again. Hmm. - Wouldn't mind lynching Rels. NAI, though for a kinda towny reason (he says flying under the radar got Rels off five lynches in a row last game). Rels was totally inactive at that point and was going to get replaced or modkilled if he kept going that way. Lynching a totally inactive player is a super easy play to make as either alignment, at least its super easy for mafia if that player is town. And Rels is unclaimed vig at this point. - Another pretty weird post: On August 02 2016 04:05 Lunaticman wrote: I can see why you think that but at the time of the posting the game was almost dead. Also it contained effort which I liked. What I THINK is going on here is BTDT is calling out Lunatic's post for being utterly contentless, which I mentioned above. Lunatic replies as if its about my post. Kinda deceptive; dunno if a genuine mistake or an attempt to fool people into overlooking his contentless post. Do not like. - Going pretty hard on Rels at this point. Rels nowhere to be seen. Super easy push to make given Rels is totally inactive. That said I actually agree that the principle of "save him he'll help later" is an utter garbage argument to make. A similar argument got made for prplhz in a game I previously played on the basis of people 'mind melding' with his reads; he did jack all and it took a huge push to get him lynched and he was mafia. - Grack actually calls out Lunatic here for Lunatic's town read on RB. That totally slipped my mind for a while there. While I don't hate Lunatic's argument (no mafia would do that because policy lynch) I don't really agree with it either given how RB was acting and that he got banned. It doesn't make scott town, no matter how many time Lunatic says it. - There's an argument over posting useful stuff between Grack and Lunatic. Which Lunatic deflects a bit by saying that if we're going after people for being useless we should lynch Rels. But...that's not exactly what Grack said. Hmmm... - Votes Rels. NAI. The above stuff is a bit indicative maybe but the vote itself is not. Rels is GONE at this point. - Getting super defensive against what is actually not a bad argument and attacking the most frivolous part of it. No. Bad. Really don't like. - Big read post. Scums Grack (so was I, okay fine), Rels (un-ccd vig) and Kelsier (kinda scummy but totally inactive, easy read). Outright towns himself (lol) and mderg (mderg wagon was rolling at this point...setting himself up to claim town points and push Rels D2? Or genuinely feeling that?). Townleans me (easy read to make), scott (who he's been soft reading all game) and Skynx. Explicitly teams Grack and Rels but also explicitly says I don't think both are mafia, which means if one flips he can still push the other. Brings up Moosy's warning, eh, NAI. Complains about Kelsier. Makes a point to mention BTDT as being better than Kelsier, but doesn't comment on much else, which I find interesting. - Next explaining his reads a bit. Pocketing me. Keeping shade on Moosy and Stutters (I honestly don't know how ANYONE could have been doing anything other than hard towning Stutters at this point) but 'more towny that not' nulls. Still soft defending scott. - Finally coming around to the idea of reading scott another way. But only under the sustained stuff from Skynx and JRoc. I really don't like how hard it is to make him realise its a poor way to read scott for so long, he's clinging to it. Then again, clinging to a read isn't necessarily scum motivated. - Wants to lynch Rels. "There's a mafia between Rels and Grac". More soft defending of scott/RB. Really desperate to push the idea that since they did the mislynch one HAS to be mafia. But since the lynch was town I don't really agree. Its easier for a mafia to jump on a bit later so they're not as exposed to criticism. Mafia leading a train is dangerous; not outside the realm of possibility especially with a player like Rels, but definitely more risky than the gamestate was worth. With everything so fluid there was no reason for Rels to go so hard on it if he's mafia; more gentle guiding would still likely have resulted in a strong wagon. Which, until his claim, was my main (and only real) argument against lynching Rels. - Final post about the Rels lynch and how it must make him mafia because of how he went about it. Which I disagree with as above. Conclusions: My previous reads were largely based on how I generally 'felt' about where Lunatic was coming from and the tone of his posts, which was a rather haphazard town. I gave a probably inordinate amount of credit merely for trying to get the game going. But now I'm taking a critical eye to what he's actually DONE...its not great honestly. On reflection I think I might be okay putting my vote on Lunatic here. I mean, we were clearly going in the wrong direction given the Grack flip so going a completely different way might help. Also tentatively...Lunatic/scott team possible? Lunatic has been doing an awful lot of soft defending on scott and, earlier, on RB. But also challenged Grack for townreading RB. With maybe a side-order on BTDT? I kinda want to take another look at BTDT and scott. Also Skynx. I've done some re-reading of filters but I'd hoped to do streams of consciousness on all of them but now I'm not entirely sure how much time I'll have this evening. I just found out I'm going out at 6pm (in twenty minutes) unfortunately which will make casing difficult... Okay let me read silent's case. I really don't think I'll have time to comment unfortunately but if I like it I'll probably take a gamble and just vote Lunatic. I should be back before deadline anyway to change if needed. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Will vote Lunatic for now. On a side note: I think if we lynch Lunatic: - if he flips scum we lynch scott (on the basis of all the defending, despite the scumminess) - if he flips town we have to rethink, but I'll probably be back on viewing silent very suspiciously ##Vote: Lunaticman | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
No alternative wagon makes me feel very icky though. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 02:45 beentheredonethat wrote: Having read your post, I find it highly interesting that you get me into a connection with Lunatic, given that I voted him D1 and didnt stop to bring him up to people's conciousness again and again. Actually it wasn't anything to do with Lunatic. It was a combination of your constantly defending scott (who has actually done very little as far as I'm concerned and the stuff he has done I'm not a huge fan of) and this post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=19#364 On August 02 2016 03:39 Skynx wrote: This Grack vs btdt/stutters is very unlikely tvtt, please keep going. I still think that statement holds up. But Grack flipped town and stutters flipped down, which leaves the scum stirring the pot in that fight to be you. I also hadn't actually explicitly looked at your filter at that point; having glanced through it now to reply to this post of yours yes, I notice you're attacking Lunatic a bunch. My problem now is I honestly think if Lunatic flips red then scott flips red. And if scott flips red then you flip red. Which leaves me in a quandary now; because I'm not sure that if Lunatic flips red then you flip red. However your defensiveness here is absolutely fascinating. Which is making me wonder if you've just solved the game for me. Lunatic wasn't getting lynched day one with the way it was going so you could start attacking him to distance. Now that everyone's reads are shaken up by the Grack mislynch then he might actually get lynched, but your last read thing didn't even comment on the ongoing discussion. Instead it brought up J Roc. Leaving yourself free to set up a secondary wagon if you want. Youre relucting to vote Lunatic or at least I take that from your wording. Why? Because I'd been townreading him based on tone all game. I explicitly stated that in my post ("My previous reads were largely based on how I generally 'felt' about where Lunatic was coming from and the tone of his posts, which was a rather haphazard town."). Did you miss that part? Problem is his tone and his arguments don't match up. Also, I feel like youre wrong on scott, he's in my town circle. He's fairly actice, pushy, and I can see where most of his reads come from. Absolutely disagree. scott's filter is poor and he's being super, super lazy. He's got literally like a page and a half filter. That is NOT 'fairly active'. And he's pushed nobody. Actually. I'm going to 'stream of consciousness' his filter after catching up I think. Its super short. I actually let go of my town lean of you. If Lunatic flips red, I can easily see you bussing here to gain towncred. I am also a bit paranoid about a scott, you and lunatic team but for now the only reason to add Scott to that list is the pterequisite that you are scum, so its highly associative. Okay now this is super, super weird on your part. My current PoE would be Lunatic > Scott. I made that clear in my last post. Why am I bussing BOTH of my scummates, one of whom has a wagon on them and one of whom is largely being overlooked? More to the point you've been townreading scott for ages now, for what I think are crappy reasons. But suddenly he's scum if I'm scum? Going full paranoia here...I know my alignment. However nobody has to believe my alignment or my reads to work through this hypothetical scenario that you're potentially setting up: - Lunatic gets lynched. Flips scum. - You argue (assumed successfully) that this makes me scum because I was bussing. - I get lynched. I flip town (again, you don't have to believe me, just take it in this example). - You then argue that this means scott couldn't possibly be scum because of what you said in this post here, that scott can only be scum if I'm scum. - scum!scott gets towned all nice and pretty and scum wins the game because nobody wants to lynch him. Sorry, no. This is rubbish. I don't care if people think I'm scum, please feel free to lynch me D3 (we can afford one more mislynch I think). But if you do then the PoE should probably be BTDT and scott after it. PLEASE DO NOT LISTEN TO BTDT'S ARGUMENTS HERE, SCOTT ABSOLUTELY CAN BE SCUM IF I FLIP TOWN. I'm more scared about you pulling off this strategy than I am about being lynched to be honest because its very clever deception by association... | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 03:13 MoosyDoosy wrote: Celestial, was there actually a post where Lunatic defended btdt? That's how I read this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=13#251 On August 01 2016 04:40 Lunaticman wrote: I think he trying to say the same thing I was that if he is town there is no way to trust his reads? because it was so filled with gibberish. But that is moot now anyway. And also calling something a "policy lynch" is extremly lazy isn't it better to say why you want to kill them? He was confusing for example? I read this as trying to make BTDT's absolutely godawful early post sound better. Followed by dismissing the whole thing as irrelevant now. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 03:16 beentheredonethat wrote: Thats why I said highly associative. If lunatic plus celestial are scum, I can see Scott scum. Last sentence of my post says "only reason to put him on that List", thought that makes my stance clear. This is garbage as above. DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THIS. SCOTT CAN STILL BE SCUM EVEN IF I FLIP TOWN. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 05:34 Skynx wrote: Celest who you wanna lynch? Lunatic won't flip scum. I kinda still want to lynch Lunatic but I'm hating the lack of a secondary wagon. I'm wondering if we should just pull the trigger on scott to be honest. His filter is garbage, I'm going to run through it now. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
- First post insisting that he knew RB was town and lo-and-behold is town. This is totally NAI. Its basically a townclaim, but its very cutely done I have to say. - Pulls up the people on the RB wagon. Wasn't an unreasonable place to start to be fair. - Points a finger a BTDT and does absolutely nothing with it. No real follow-up. And the only real reason for that finger is that awful early post which was eventually just passed over. Its a super easy push to get out of by just posting something a bit better. - Says he likes silent's D1 post. - Says J Roc's post looks towny for pointing out BTDT's terrible post. Sure, it is. But that's also an easy call to make. Everyone thought that post was awful. - Agreeing with silent's follow up. Calling him reasonable. Nothing else, no further questions. - Replies to my big post saying he only added people who actually voted RB when I challenged him why I wasn't on his potential scum list (because I didn't like RB's posts either but didn't actually vote). - Basically nulls Moosy when asked by Moosy about himself. - Challenges mderg about not liking his posts. - Challenges him again. Claims that mderg is trying to get him mislynched. Posts a bunch of reads but no real reasoning. Wants to lynch either BTDT or mderg. - Calls J Roc town (easy call imo at that point) for challenging him. Then shade on mderg again. - Asks BTDT for two lynches. I dunno if this ever gets followed up though. Soft question. - Towns Stutters and Grack. Doesn't really seem to elaborate on this. Backs off a bit from claiming BTDT as scum (saying he improved) but still heavily scumming mderg. - Asks Rels for some "magic" when Rels finally turns up. - Asks Skynx to re-read mderg's filter. - Jumps onto Grack's "squirming" post. Which was one of the stupidest things in this entire game tbh. No way does a mafia team of me/Stutters/Grack play like that. Even before the two of them were confirmed by flips. - Disagrees with Stutters when Stutters says a silent lynch gives us more information; claiming a mderg lynch gives us more. - Points out J Roc's vote on silent. - Post-flip says he'll be around to discuss stuff later. Doesn't really discuss anything at all since then, insofar as he's "discussed" anything much. - More than sixteen and a half hours later: "Wow, nice find" to the vote association stuff between Grack and silent that Moosy led me to. - Asks Rels if he's out of energy. - Says he won't be on much because of work. - Next post is that he got into a car accident. - Last post paraphrased "We're doing alright, I'll skim the thread and need to leave a vote" Conclusion: He's done absolutely jack all and I don't like most of what he HAS done. About the only thing he's done all game is soft push mderg for the whole of day 1 until he got mislynched. Seriously? What the hell is this crap? And then BTDT just before goes "He's fairly actice, pushy, and I can see where most of his reads come from.". He's inactive as hell, he's throwing softball general questions that don't get followed up on. His only actual push was soft-pushing a mislynch D1. And hardly any of his reads actually have any backing. How is that "active, pushy and can see where most of his reads come from"? I'm seriously thinking of switching to scott now. That filter is TERRIBLE. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
KSC for the inactivity. scott because of my filter dive just before. Or BTDT a bit because of the stuff I was pulling at the other page, a bit because others are scumming him and admittedly probably a bit of OMGUS. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 07:00 Rels wrote: OK let's get rid of KSC ##Vote KSC Alright. #Vote: KelsierSC | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I could probably live with that. I'd prefer scott but...eh. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
It does kinda align with how he's been so "IDGAF" about the whole game. More to the point do you want to risk lynching an un-ccd blue? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Rels wants a BTDT lynch. I'm okay with that. Though I'd prefer a scott lynch. But eh. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
The posts that he's actually made have jack all in them except for a soft push on mderg. Who flipped town. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 07:14 Lunaticman wrote: The only thing Ill give him is that he has been trying to make the vig waste his shot on him by being super scummy. Actually this is a seriously legit argument. But...if there IS a real one then we're still going to get a CC at some point. At this point I almost feel its worth lynching someone else ANYWAY and the CC hold off until after the night phase. Then they can CC, if anyone is even going to, after the NK and we know who to lynch on D3. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Mafia don't know setup. Doc claim means they have to shoot him. One wasted night kill. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Eh, what's done is done. Back to KSC. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
He got CCd by Lunatic. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Auto. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 07:28 silentwarrior wrote: This is the only thing making me doubt Lunatics blue claim. Plus the fact that he was ready to accept his fate before, knowing he could claim. Shit, I'm not sure of anything right now, but we do have one other lynch, and mafia is obviosly either Lunatic or KSC, so we will atleast get one of them. It practically doesn't matter. Town does not claim vet here because it wastes the role totally. You claim doc and bait a bullet next night (because they HAVE to shoot a claimed doc). The lack of a night kill confirms you as town. That's basic strategy unless KSC has totally taken leave of his senses. If KSC DID screw up and Lunatic is just taking the opportunity to get a mislynch then we lynch him tomorrow as an outed mafia. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 07:29 MoosyDoosy wrote: yeah tbh it doesn't matter since scum can just rb their way thru veteran and doc can't heal themselves. which makes this situation worse because whether it's doc or veteran, both played bad. Oh yeah I forgot RBing vet was a thing tbh. Either way one dies now. If they're blue we get the other tomorrow. Meanwhile we can hunt for the others. It puts us in a crap situation with no room to screw up as far as I can work out, but at least we got a red. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 08:07 Rels wrote: ... Pretty much. Auto-lynch on Lunatic now. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 08:07 MoosyDoosy wrote: But you seriously fucked up Kels IDEK why join the game if you're just not going to bother like...at all tbh. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
My activity is going to go way down in a week too because I'm going on holiday so I'll only be able to post occasionally from phone. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 08:16 KelsierSC wrote: Gone through a lot of stuff recently. I just wanted to do things that used to make me happy. Unfortunatley with my work and other circumstances I just can't commit to these games and get the same enjoyment. I'm sorry i upset So many of you. I wish you all the best in your future games which I regret I won't be part of. Thanks for the host shape. I can't deny it was kinda frustrating; but no hate. <3 Take care of yourself, Kelsier. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 08:23 Rels wrote: Since I suppose I'm gonna be killed I'm gonna post my last will right now: Luna / BTDT should be auto. That sucks. Keep talking if you can about stuff. I just remembered that Luna came back voting scott. Then tried to lynch KSC. This is a town indicator for scott, given that Luna was looking for a lynch other than him. We have to take chances this game, and I think we can take the gamble that scott is town. It is very possible. Never lynch silent. Maybe never lynch Celestial. Skynx I'm less sure about. But probably town. So last scum is likely among Moosy / J Roc. Maybe I lied and I will read their filters tomorrow. Maybe not. I would lynch Luna / BTDT / Moosy right now. Moosy is actually playing very, very close to his scum meta from a recent game of his. I'll do a post about it tomorrow if I have the time. Lunatic is auto. BTDT...probably scum. Agreed. The point on scott is really good. I HATE scott's filter but I guess I'll start looking at how other people have acted towards scott. Lunatic has quite a big filter so there should be markers in there for the last. At this point I'm not really trusting anyone else so...yeah. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Gah this game... Lunatic dies next day cycle. 100% If anyone isn't on that wagon they're scum. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Problem is it'd have been suicide if he'd flipped anything other than red. And with the way the claims had come in, KSC had to be the first lynch. So I didn't do it. X-( | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 05 2016 17:15 beentheredonethat wrote: You guys believe a cc with shitty reasoning This pretty much outs you here. Its not so much anyone 'believed' so much as mechanically the best play there was to lynch KSC, then lynch Lunatic. KSC had done nothing all game. Lunatic's claim came off the back of actually doing stuff. Either way you're lynching one then the other if the first doesn't flip red. I already pointed out how super weird your last post was. The problem is that now town can't lynch me for the confirmation to kill you and probably scott, which is a huge pain. scott really has done absolutely nothing of value all game but you love the guy. Actually on reflection I'd maybe prefer a scott lynch first. But there's plenty of time to think on it because tomorrow we're lynching Lunatic so its at least like...five days before we lynch anyone else. Plenty of time to re-dive everyone. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I don't think so but its within the realm of possibilities. Would give more time for BTDT to develop a filter to look at. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
"Lunatic's claim came off the back of actually doing stuff". You are contradicting yourself here. You pointed out, as others did before you, that most of Lunatic's stuff was actually empty, half-hearted, and scum-indicative. "Writing stuff" then. Stop misrepresenting my post. My point was there was more to Lunatic's filter than KSC's. Sure, Lunatic's was kinda empty and half-hearted but KSC had done JACK ALL, ALL GAME. Celestial is a more experienced player. This is not untrue but very deceptive. I have three games on here prior to this plus one co-host, and nothing for quite some time now. I've played it before in other settings, but never on a forum. I don't see any purpose in this question besides that one. You mean besides wanting to know if he'd be getting replaced or not? There wasn't one. I was interested to know. Because you imply that a lynch that is not scott would make up for decent VCA. You're missing the part where scott was the only wagon at that point and a very lazy one at that. If everyone is on the same wagon then firstly its probably town and secondly you literally can't draw any information from the voting. This is really basic stuff here... And boom, joining the mislynch wagon and abandoning the silent vote. You going to skip the part where I DIDN'T switch and me and Stutters were being scumread for trying to point out that mderg was a bad lynch? It was a one-vote-in-it scenario. It'd have been super easy for me to sit back at that point if I was scum. Actually I checked the numbers just now and I'm a bit relieved, I thought another mislynch would end us but as long as we kill Lunatic tomorrow we have one more mislynch to play with. It doesn't, we can afford one more mislynch. Which totally takes the pressure off me again, I was seriously worried me being lynched would result in mafia win at this point because I hadn't checked the numbers. So please go ahead and kill me D4 if you like to confirm my alignment. I won't fight it. I'll be on holiday anyway at that point and frankly I'm getting very tired of the garbage going on in this game, I'd be glad to be out of it. Feels like half the town don't really care enough to play much and scum is getting away with literal murder. My death would probably be more informative than arguing back and forth on this. I don't really see any point in engaging more with BTDT, his scott defence is terrible and he's reaching for stuff that isn't there. He's either dumb town or scum. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
But his stuff on scott is just weirding me out so much here. scott looks goddamn AWFUL. In every way. Perhaps I'm falling into an OMGUS trap. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Rels is un-ccd blue. Got to be town. Lunatic is confirmed mafia. And dies tomorrow. That leaves silent, BTDT, Moosy, scott, J Roc and Skynx. There's two more mafia in that. There had to be a mafia on mderg. Possibly one on RB/scott but without anybody on both I'm not sure how much that helps. I would think its an easy bus to make but if they KNEW he was likely getting replaced then why do that? Its not entirely outside the realm of possibility there ISN'T one on the RB wagon. - silent had a really over-reaching case on KSC which I didn't like. Then is frustrated with RB, as was everyone. Towns scott which I've never liked all game; scott's play has been very poor. Also really focused on the idea that Stutters is mafia. Which I didn't like either. But I really liked his latest and recent stuff. He cased Lunatic pretty well. I read Lunatic's filter and didn't like it much, then went back and looked at his case and liked the few things it hit (though there was a ton more). Conclusion: I guess town? Maybe? Probably I guess. Got to start somewhere. - BTDT has a 2 page filter which in a normal game is godawful but in this one...frankly this game has been garbage. Agree on the RB stuff being NAI. Called a Kelsier/Stutters team early on, both now flipped town. Also towned scott which I still hate, as above. Goes strongly after Lunatic a bunch. Ums and ahs over Grack. Constantly going on the "scott is town" thing. Please just...stop. His filter is terrible. Then starts scumming Grack over that whole "tvtt" thing Skynx brought up. Is it outside the realms of possibility that whole thing was tvtt now? I kinda think so but...maybe not. Could Skynx be scum? Dunno, I've not got to his filter yet. Calls J Roc town. Dunno, I also haven't got to re-reviewing J Roc yet but I STILL hate the calling of scott town. Case building on me because I called him scum (just OMGUS maybe?) and really, REALLY trying hard to get me into association with the two people I was actively scumreading ahead of him which is horrible. I reiterate: IF AND WHEN I FLIP TOWN THAT DOES NOT MAKE SCOTT TOWN. Conclusion: Honestly I don't know. I really really hate with every fibre of my being any townreads on scott right now; its unbelievably scummy to do so. And he's trying to link me with my top two lynch candidates which is weird as hell. Which tells me he's scum. But there is one saving grace in that he's been going after Lunatic literally all game, and Lunatic is basically confirmed mafia at this point. And that's townie. Like...really townie. But its the ONLY point on him. - Moosy has six pages. Still don't like the whole "oh RB is town because of that" thing. No, the RB thing is absolutely NAI. He's asking people to explain stuff and making reads, even if it is kinda low-content. Then he started doing some stuff that led into the Grack/silent association thing. The whole "soul read on Rels" thing I still hate; I already pointed out that that kind of thing has literally almost lost me games before. In any case...genuine "feel" read or mafia KNOWING Rels isn't scum? I don't know. Actually explicitly states his reads align with scott and then associates them both with Rels too. Which, on the one hand, I absolutely hate because I dislike anyone with association with scott at the moment. On the other Rels is un-ccd vig. This a play to get Rels on their side maybe? Also says he agrees with scott there 100% has to be a mafia on the RB train. Which I don't hate as an argument but...if we're going to play with tinfoil hats its a really good way to get people to focus on a train where there is absolutely no mafia. At this point three of the five on that train are flipped town so...anyway. Then the whole lead into the VCA thing with Grack/silent. Which is nonsense at this point of course, Grack flipped town. Calls his team as BTDT/Grack/Silent because of the association plus the absolutely godawful vote onto RB by BTDT. Eh...I don't absolutely hate this team at this point in the game, but Grack later flips town. Random stuff around and post-flip. The "I don't think vig should claim here" is a bit eh. I was kinda mixed on the idea after he said this as I recall but given the total lack of town information and the fact the vig shot was popped I was much more into the idea of the claim than Moosy was. Especially early on so we could actually start building something. Then makes silent town which is kinda eh. Means I think his only scumread left is BTDT. Seems always very interested in what people think of him which is very...yeah I don't like that. "Gut tells me BTDT is town but mind says scum" I really hate this line. Then calls BTDT scum again and basically says "Lunatic probably scum but he's all over the place and I don't know if scum plays like that". Trying to push on BTDT again whilst setting up to claim credit for a Lunatic lynch? "silent can't be mafia unless Grack is mafia and Grack flipped town" I'm a bit eh on but it looks a lot better in light silent's recent stuff. Lots of posts containing nothing. Gets excited about a potential BTDT shenanie, NAI since he's been scumreading BTDT. Really happy about the way the lynch is going around EoD2 it seems; in reply to Rels calling him scum. Which is a bit...eh. Trying too hard? Stuff about the flip is kinda NAI. Either side could act disappointed with that flip. Challenges silent who is calling him scum post-flip. He REALLY wants BTDT dead here, comments on Rels' post about how when he started going onto BTDT off Kelsier then Lunatic claimed. Which is actually a very legit point by Rels. Add that to why BTDT is possibly scum from above. silent has promised a case on Moosy, obviously Moosy not happy with it. Back-and-forth with Rels over reading. NAI stuff here. Almost joking around. The stuff about silent/Grack is legit; the VCA stuff was NOT the entire case but silent is sort of playing around that it is. This, however, is super weird: "ohhhh like when I made it N1 and everyone literally ignored it? where were you then smart one." I can't actually find a CASE on Lunatic anywhere. He asked for whether Lunatic made a post defending BTDT (which I replied to) and, in fact, was saying that he thinks Lunatic might be mafia but doesn't know for sure because mafia doesn't play like that. Conclusion: I really liked the stuff earlier on, despite low content, because it did actually seem to be going somewhere and asking people to explain their reasoning. Some of the more recent stuff though means the wheels have come off that a bit. And he's got a massive obsession with BTDT. On the one hand Rels' comment about BTDT and the Lunatic claim is actually super legit and a strong point against BTDT. On the other hand I'm really not liking this exchange between silent and Moosy. At all. Doesn't feel TvT but given how frustrated everyone is there's a slight possibility it could be. Could team be BTDT/Lunatic/Moosy? Seems super unlikely since BTDT has been on Lunatic and Moosy has been on BTDT. Given those two points the most likely pairing would be Lunatic/Moosy+1 from this. But I'm not totally sold that Moosy is scummier than BTDT. - scott31337: Don't need to write anything more here. See this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916284 Conclusion: Scummy as all hell. - J Roc opens with general silliness. Didn't like it much. Bunch of nothing. Doesn't mind the vote going on RB despite disliking policies. NAI. I felt the same way. Reply to silent is decent. Highlights BTDT's godawful post about voting RB for reasons other than policy. Hated scott's entrance. Same mindset as me. Townie point for this. Also refuses to lynch Rels which I like; the guy was 100% getting modkilled or replaced if he didn't come back. Wasted lynch. Didn't want to lynch mderg either. Wants silent dead then, presumably to try to save mderg. Still doesn't like scott "we let Scott make a few posts then fuck off while the wagon moved off of him" is just too true. Tells Grack to not direct blues, fine. Wants to look at Rels, wouldn't lynch Moosy, hates scott. This is fine at this point. Good reply to me about Rels. Still claiming scott is mafia. Then there's a bit with Grack during N1 honestly I think Grack played a bit too fast and loose there, its what got him shot. Still wanting a scott lynch. Good logic on the Rels claim. Lynching scott all day every day. Conclusion: Never lynching J Roc next. His posts are too good. If we lynch scott and he flips town then we can maybe lynch J Roc. But I really don't live in a world right now where scott isn't scum and J Roc is. - Skynx random garbage first few posts. Never like garbage posts. Eh. Practically nothing until Race got banned. But after that his early stuff is pretty good otherwise. Picking at that Grack thing I didn't like is good. This exchange feels pretty townie for Skynx in light of Lunatic being scum. Rest of this is pretty good so far. Wants to lynch Rels for inactivity. Eh...don't like. But its kinda understandable. Liking where most of this is coming from. Then there's that "this isn't tvtt" post relating to Grack vs Stutters/BTDT. Which I still like the mindset of, but two have flipped town. If BTDT is town then there's an outside chance Skynx is scum based on this post. Specifically picks out BTDT as the weakest link there. Tells everyone to move away from scott which, at this point, I like. But I still think scott is scum so...maybe trying to make sure a scummate doesn't get lynched? I don't think so, the reason he's saying it is because they were votes on RB before he got replaced, not necessarily because he thinks scott is town as far as I can tell. Disagree where he says scott has a nice entry. Scott's posting is terrible. This is good: I had a post about something i didnt like about stutters then grack came in and defended him then stut sr'd grack. Meanwhile btdt sr'd Luna and when grack agreed he sr'd grack. Pretty sure there is one careless mafia here. His PoE reads as "Rels>Stutters>btdt>Grack>silent". Two of whom are now confirmed two and one is an un-ccd blue. Eh. Its not a terrible PoE for the point in the game the post is at though. There's a decent comment on mderg but mderg turns out to be town so its not great on reflection. Towns Rels, scott, Stutters. Hate scott being in there. Scums BTDT/mderg. I can't quite get my head around this quote tree. I THINK Stutters is saying Skynx is misrepresenting mderg? Throws out a BTDT vote and buggers off, his reasoning is alright though I guess. Bunch of stuff that's eh kinda townie. I like his reply to my tinfoil hat theory. Calls out Lunatic's post for inconsistency, engaging Lunatic well. I'm very eh over people against the vig claim; but it might be personal preferences here. His reasoning isn't terrible I think; though I dislike the back and forth with Rels on it. Rels' reasoning for the claim so early is good. More scumread stuff on Lunatic which is fine. Talking about silent some more. Convinced there is mafia on mderg (which is very likely), good. More stuff back and forth with Rels. Wasting time. I think this is just arguing over claiming theory. NAI. Very likely TvT; mafia probably doesn't care so much when Rels claims. Bit more talking about silent. Next bit is a bit weird. Decides that Lunatic all of a sudden shouldn't be lynch, despite him seemingly strongly scumreading Lunatic earlier. But then again, has been apparently quite suspicious of silent too. IDK why he's challenging Rels again here, an un-ccd blue, in such a way as to throw shade on Rels. Really doesn't want to lynch Lunatic now. Eventually just concedes saying he's tunneled. All this stuff is kinda...I don't like. Wants shenanie onto BTDT or KSC. Finishes fighting with silent again. Conclusion: I don't think he's scum. Or he's being very clever scum. However there IS an outside chance he's scum. Most of the early to mid-game stuff is good outside of a few little tells. The stuff around EoD2 though was pretty weird. If he's scum then silent is probably town, if silent is scum he's probably town. But both can be town. Bleh. Overall conclusion: Like...seriously. Can we just lynch scott? I'm not liking BTDT much still but the fact he's definitely been pushing Lunatic since literally D1 is something of an anchor on pushing to lynch him first now. J Roc is super townie, has been pushing scott all game. I absolutely hate everything about scott's play. I can't see any reason to NOT lynch scott after we string up Lunatic. The third mafia is quite probably between Moosy/BTDT unless Skynx is playing an absolute stormer of a game. I don't want to live in a world where J Roc is scum right now so he's totally off my radar. But I'd love to see a set of reads from him. Thinking self-critically I MIGHT be tunneled on scott here but I don't think so. There's two mafia in those six and scott has a horrible filter. Lunatic's filter might be worth a review as well to see who he hasn't engaged or has only do so 'gently'. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 06 2016 03:40 scott31337 wrote: Sorry I haven't been into the game much - I glanced we lynch the vet in a tight vote - best to look there next. Next we're lynching Lunatic since he effectively claimed scum with his cc leading to the mislynch. If you don't lynch Lunatic tomorrow you're pretty much claiming scum yourself. Also Rels already posted his last will here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25917038 Summary: He wants Lunatic then BTDT. Then between Moosy and J Roc. Personally I'd rather lynch Lunatic then you. But I'll probably have another look at Rels' argument for reading you town in the next few days. Got plenty of time because we got the rest of this night, then all of D3. Then N3 and only then do we have to actually start deciding where to go next (because we're lynching Lunatic tomorrow, full stop). | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 06 2016 03:58 Skynx wrote: If we have a cop/vigi thats not Rels you are losing this game. Celest, Rels, Moosy, Onegu should never be lynched. btdt 1st then I'd go Scott. I'm kinda drifting towards lynching scott first because if he flips red this game starts making a lot more sense. Why particularly BTDT first? Just because of the general scumminess? What about him going after Lunatic seemingly all game? | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Like...he is literally scum.Outright. There's nobody scummier in this game than Lunatic because he's pretty much scumclaimed with that counter-claim and the flip. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Why? Because if Moosy were to flip town (which I'm eh on, but lets run with that) and you continue to push through on the lynch on me then I'd HAVE to defend myself because I think we'd be in MYLO and so town would lose if I flip town (which I will, but I'd say that as either alignment). I absolutely will not have the time or be able to do that to any great extent; I'll be on a bit, but not enough to defend in a MYLO situation. So town is guaranteed to lose under those circumstances. I'd like to avoid that. In contrast I don't actually have to defend myself if you decide to push me before then because we can afford one more mislynch. I might or might not, I dunno at the moment I'm really tired of this game honestly. Though it'll be a shame to lose my 100% survival rate. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
If I have to die, please make it D4. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Its just I'd rather not end up in a situation where Moosy were to flip town and people want to lynch me then, because we just lose and I won't be able to struggle against the loss. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 06 2016 08:26 silentwarrior wrote: Right now Moosy is looking a lot more scummier than you are. So I'm going to push who I think is most scummy. But nothing is set in stone, D4 is a long way off, as is D5. I know that. But the problem with that is...well, if Moosy flips town, who would you push after that? Because if its still me then please for the love of god lynch me FIRST or I literally physically won't be able to try to stop the endgame win for mafia. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
The thing that drew me to celestial at first was the fact that he survived N1. It was so strange to be honest. If you compare Stutters and Celestial, he was the obvious person to kill, not stutters. Agreed. No idea why I didn't die. Hence why I posted a legacy post. First, Moosy along with Celestial pulled up that bullshit VCA. Moosy seems like he would go for that sort of thing, but celestial suprised me by actually saying he liked it. What's more, he completely ignored the explanations we had that supported our views, even when it was stutters saying them. Celestial has made the biggest posts with the most analysis, but he barely even bothered to even think about the voting pattern more than a passing "eh, seems alright". Wasn't BS. The points against you and Grack went beyond that VCA which I've been saying literally all along but you and Grack keep and kept dragging it to "only be the VCA". The vote count stuff was only part of the case. But it was a nice neat little point. He also had a strong townlean on lunatic for no apparent reason. He did a filterdive of lunatic same time as me, and mentions some the things we now know makes lunatic scum. But he not only ignores some of those, he even makes excuses for them. Worse, he misses some of the huge red flags in lunatics filter, even though it was probably the shortest filter with the most scummy things. Such as? Also I think scott's filter was probably still the shortest. [quote]And then, when me and 3 others vote for lunatic he comes in and changes his mind? I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. We know mafia tried to bus Lunatic when it looked like he was dying. You don't have to believe it. But when there's only one wagon that late in the day I'm inclined to believe that it means that mafia don't care whether that person lives or dies. [quote]Also, in the same big post as quted above, he has the now confirmed townies (Rels, Grack, Kelsier, Silent) as mafia reads, while the ones that are more questionable much higher up. The only townie he has in town is stutters. But thing is, mafia knew he was gonna die that night, so ofcourse he was gonna be high on the list. [/quote] Yeah, because Grack was scummy as hell, Rels had just led a mislynch and Kelsier had done JACK ALL. And Stutters was townie literally because we had been simultaneously questioning the mderg wagon as being crap on D1. I was never lynching him after that. Whatever. Believe what you want. But DO NOT TAKE ME INTO MYLO ON D5 AS YOUR TOP SCUM READ BECAUSE TOWN WILL LOSE. PLEASE BELIEVE THIS. IF YOU THINK I'M SCUM KILL ME D4 AT THE LATEST. If its not MYLO D5 then go ahead and lynch me then if you must. Since I'll be on holiday and it'll free me up from having to check in. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Calling it now. Please do not forget this post. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 06 2016 08:56 silentwarrior wrote: If I haven't counted wrong, it should be like this if we mislynch D4 D3: 5 town/3 mafia N3: 5/2 D4: 4/2 N4: 3/2 D5: 2/2 Which means we won't even be in D5 if we lynch moosy D4 and he flips town. Damn I forgot about the N3 kill when I was checking it over. I had us at 5/2 on D4. Yeah I think you're right, we mislynch now we lose. Even if we hit mafia D4 we're still 3/1 on D5 which means lose D6. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Which means I can't afford to just take the mislynch on myself for the info flip. This really, really sucks. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
With your pathway, silent, if we follow it then we lynch Moosy D4. If he flips scum, so we don't immediately lose, I can't defend myself properly D5 (traveling and then in a place with poor internet and only with my phone for D5) so we lose right there instead. I know you're saying "its a long way off and you're less scummy" but you need to ask me questions to confirm or deny that I'm town during D3 and D4 (i.e. RIGHT NOW) and get me confirmed in your mind by D5; or we just lose D5 in literally the worst way possible. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Great. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 06 2016 10:52 MoosyDoosy wrote: I don't know why he's freaking out about people worrying otherwise I wasn't, I was freaking out about being the potential D5 rather than D4 lynch because I thought we had one more mislynch in us. I go away on holiday in a week so my activity is going to go down for D5. I thought that if we mislynched one we're still in it; so I was thinking I'd rather be lynched D4 and we can get that out of the way and everyone can re-evaluate their reads rather than get a different mislynch before me and me being on the spot whilst totally unable to defend myself a week from now (on D5). My point was its better to make a mistake on me now when that mistake isn't fatal, than in a week when it will be both fatal and almost inevitable (because I won't be able to argue back effectively). As it is my point is totally arbitrary. I miscounted. If we mislynch we lose. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
There is probably somewhere south of a 1% chance of you actually being town here. And that's being VERY generous. You're an auto-target at this point. On a side note I'd like to point out that scott is still nowhere to be seen. With a filter consisting of literally of around two dozen posts in the entire game. And in the last eight posts he's said no less than three times he is going to give some reads or be around for discussion or whatever. And then just hasn't. On August 02 2016 08:09 scott31337 wrote: I'll be around to discuss some things later. After which he made two posts, which are frankly stretching the definition of "discuss". One going "nice find" to the vote-count thing Moosy led me to. The other asking Rels if he's "run out of energy". Then: On August 03 2016 14:08 scott31337 wrote: I took the day off work tomorrow so I'll read over then and give my thoughts. This was the car accident post. So its a bit more understandable that he doesn't follow up on this when he said he would. Then a post about how he's skimmed the thread and will leave a vote. Then: On August 06 2016 03:40 scott31337 wrote: I'll try to get some time later. That was twenty hours ago, so rapidly approaching a full day, with no follow up. Not even a "whoops I didn't get time". I'd like to reiterate that scott is doing literally jack all, his earlier posts are questionable at BEST, and despite all of that people are heavily townreading him for that and some vote indicators. But I've been banging this drum for a while now and a bunch of people are flat out ignoring it, yet are apparently totally unable to explain it away. Wake the hell up, everyone. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 07 2016 00:55 Lunaticman wrote: What if I told you I am that 1%. I just told you why. At least you could give me the curtious call to read my answer. I know I have failed you but at least give me one more try. I've read your posts. It absolutely does not change my position. Yes, there are possible reasons for making such a play, none of those reasons excuse what actually happened. Nor is it a play a town should EVER make when one mislynch from LYLO because, if the play goes bad, it makes them an automatic lynch the next day and therefore is an outright game-losing play. The only side who would (or rather should) ever make such a fake-claim play at this point in the game is scum, full stop. Not lynching you now is literally the worst town play possible by every single measure. I would be more inclined to believe someone telling me the sky is green than you being town right now. In the unbelievably unlikely event that you are town then Kelsier doing jack all when he was a blue and you counterclaiming him when you were a green quite literally pushed us from "bad position" to "losing the game". And, frankly, makes this game a total embarrassment for all of us honestly. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
This game? Could go either way. People just aren't playing. Still pretty sure scott is scum though. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Assuming Lunatic is actually mafia so we don't lose immediately I might give it a go tomorrow and see what output it gives us. If I do I'll post the results. Anything is better than all this silence. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
If its a loss I'm going to guess team is Lunatic/scott and BTDT or Skynx (in an edge case). | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
silent BTDT scott J Roc Skynx 1 mafia left out of a total of 6. We lose one tonight which makes it 5:1. EVEN IF we get a mislynch that just makes it 3:1. Which means we have two whole days to do this now. silent isn't mafia. Not after saying he wanted Moosy as his D4. J Roc is...probably unlikely. I was going to say definitely because I've been fairly convinced for a while but his recent filter isn't so great. That means its probably scott, BTDT or, at a stretch, Skynx. scott looks awful. Flat out awful. BTDT looks a bit better but I'm very mixed. There's indicators that he can't possibly be on Lunatic's team but Rels pointed out that cute little play Lunatic made on D2. Skynx is a stretch admittedly. There's just...bits and pieces here that I was a bit eh on. I can't really go into details right now because I've literally had a bottle and a half of prosecco so... I'll try to filter tomorrow. If anything can even be made of the absolute mess that is everyone's filter at this point. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
But then when he conjured up a cute little theory based on the VCA N1 association between silent and Grack I gave him a ton of credit because: 1. it couldn't be faked, it was hard votes and 2. it seemed to show genuine thinking about the game. Since then I'd more or less just subconsciously dismissed him as a possibility. Because even though it was wrong it had a solid, logical basis; which is super townie. X-( | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 08 2016 08:37 silentwarrior wrote: Best thing to do is to look at everything Moosy and Lunatic did know that we know they are mafia. I'm also pretty sure both btdt and scott are town. Tbh I still really, really don't like most of what scott has posted. And I don't like his total inactivity despite constant promises for stuff. However I've been filter diving MYSELF just a little bit now and I find this exchange very interesting: On August 05 2016 05:31 -Celestial- wrote: This is garbage as above. DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THIS. SCOTT CAN STILL BE SCUM EVEN IF I FLIP TOWN. We now know that there is only one scum at most between scott and BTDT. At the time the way BTDT here was talking it LOOKED (to me) like he was setting things up to read scott as town based on me flipping town. Which I hated, because it'd give "town armour" to scott against a lynch later on. Potentially allowing for two mislynches in a row and winning scum the game. Which would imply both scott and BTDT were on scum team and working to get scott heavily townread and potentially win the game. In light of the fact that is now actually impossible BTDT looks way, way better here. I know that I'll flip town (you don't have to believe me, just take it for this argument). Which means the three possibilities are as follows: 1. scum!BTDT was implying town!scott would be town on the basis of my flip being town. Why does a scum set up a potentially easy lynch target (given scott's total inactivity) as being town read on the basis of someone else's town flip? 2. town!BTDT was implying scum!scott would be town on the basis of my flip being town. Which is just a read and association mistake. 3. town!BTDT was implying that town!scott would be town on the basis of my flip being town. Which, as above, is just an association mistake (as I outlined myself, me being town doesn't necessarily make scott town). Since 1 is the only scenario where BTDT is scum and is super, SUPER unlikely then BTDT looks way better in light of all that. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Votes: Lunatic - D1: Rels D2: Rels > Scott > KSC D3: Celestial Moosy: D1: Didn't vote D2: Lunatic > KSC D3: Didn't vote | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Lunatic went with Rels D1 who was inactive as hell until EoD. Then went with Rels again starting D2, flipped to scott when there were 6 people on him, one on scott and one on silent. Then flipped to KSC to make the spread 6 on him, 1 on scott and 1 on silent. This is actually pretty weird I think. I'll have to check his filter from around the time of these votes. Then D3 he just went me. Because he was getting lynched full stop and it didn't really matter. I guess maybe he was trying to feel out if anyone would go for a different lynch even in spite of the cc, but that was never happening. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Town: silent Townlean: BTDT Scumlean: scott Need to re-read filters: Skynx, J Roc | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 08 2016 09:50 silentwarrior wrote: Don't just look at mafia votes, look at who voted for them. Btdt voted for lunatic pretty early, which imo should have very strong townlean. Scott got voted on by lunaticman, which should clear him as well. Obviously In fact the BTDT attack on Lunatic is literally the only thing (until now) that I've found townie. Which is why I was pushing scott ahead of him. The Lunatic vote on scott doesn't clear scott for me. Because it was largely inconsequential at the time as far as I can tell. If I'm reading this right there were six votes on Lunatic and only one other on scott. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
If I'm still alive tomorrow I want to dive to compare and contrast the three. But in case I'm not, and since a bunch of people are just flat out overlooking scott, I want to draw attention again to this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=42#838 scott has done NOTHING to deserve a town read. Almost every question he has asked is incredibly weak and along the lines of "have your reads changed?" and "what is your opinion now?". i.e. really softball questions. And he doesn't even make up for the weak questions with extensive analysis. The only person he seems to have put real pressure on beyond that is BTDT when he specifically asked for a couple of scum reads off him. Who he has been scumming since the moment he got in this thread off the back of the single bad post early on. Yes, it was a super bad post, but its not the only thing BTDT has done that he can be read scummily for and saying you're happy to vote for him off the back of that one post seems insane. He's not actually asked any really probing questions at all. When I questioned him about why he hadn't had me on his scum list (on the basis that I was scumming RB for it to, I just hadn't voted) he replied with this: On August 01 2016 12:22 scott31337 wrote: I only added the people who actually voted for me - There was a vote in the main thread for Race that was not in the voting thread I didn't count either. I was looking more at who pulled the trigger to do so. And BTDT looks the worst out of those four. This is not an unreasonable response. However it is also a super lazy response. There were THREE mafia in the game at this point. Not one. And there was no way they were all on that RB wagon, no chance. Why only look for one? He's been buddying up to silent for basically the entire game and frankly I think you're pocketed. In fact almost his entire game he's been buddying up to people. As far as I can tell he's only outright actually scumread TWO people all game. One being mderg who has flipped town and the other being BTDT. He's thrown a bit of shade on me and Stutters before the mderg flip by agreeing with Gracks "squirming" thing (because we were questioning the vote) and he's thrown a bit of shade on Grack and silent by saying "nice find" in response to the vote thing Moosy led me to. There's nothing else I've seen in a quick re-check through his filter here. What. Has. He. Done. To. Deserve. Being. Town. Read? He's been inactive as hell even before the car crash, he's pushed hardly anyone, he's hardly ever scumread anyone (instead playing the incredibly scummy game of "I'm town, your town, everyone is town, isn't that nice?"), he's been buddying up to people wherever possible, his reads aren't very well backed and he's flown below the radar for the entire game. I'm not going to say "if I die lynch scott" like BTDT because that's a very dangerous game to play with only one mislynch left. What I will say is that for the love of god stop just dismissing scott out of hand every single time you provide reads. That being said: On August 09 2016 03:11 scott31337 wrote: Girl is doing better, she still needs some help around the house I hope things get better for the both of you. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
That's an OMGUS to me; no solid reasoning behind scott's scumreads. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Though I'll note that night kill was probably the safest move a scum!scott could make. BTDT and silent both town him (and he needs the support honestly). Me and J Roc been very loudly banging the drum for a scott lynch which would make him look a bit suspicious if either of us died. That being said NKA absolutely reeks of WIFOM. So I don't place a huge amount of stock into this. Its just interesting to keep in mind. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 09 2016 08:35 scott31337 wrote: Celestial why aren't you dead if you are town? ? I'm surprised you're asking that question considering the answer logically follows from my last post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25929472 Why? Because I'm mostly focused on you. If you're scum then you can't "safely" NK me for fear of drawing suspicion. If you're not scum then I'm kinda tunneled on you so its an easy mislynch for the last scum to pick up. Either way its totally non-indicative of your alignment. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I'm loving this "being wrong on everything" though considering what an utter nightmare this game has been. You want to play the "who is right" game? We can play that game! No problem! So you've been correct on all of this, right? You're SERIOUSLY telling me you thought KSC was 100% town at the time of his lynch vote despite being totally inactive? Or Rels was 100% town despite being totally inactive for most of D1 and then getting a mislynch train going right at the end? How about being convinced Lunatic was scum? Or convinced mderg was town? Lets have a look in your filter to see! Oh no, wait, because you've got JACK ALL in your filter. So we can't actually see what you thought on most of them; not really at the appropriate times anyway. As far as what you HAVE done however...you've got one list of reads I can find here in which you: - scummed mderg, a confirmed flipped townie. - scummed BTDT, who is probably town. - towned both of the flipped reds. So yes, a bunch of my stuff this game has been wrong; however I provided a ton of reasons behind why I was making the reads I was making and tried to make it crystal clear where I was coming from so as to allow people to point out any problems and incorrect assumptions I might be making. You want to lynch me for that then go right ahead, I really don't care at this point. But DON'T even PRETEND that you're some kind of goddamn innocent in this. Your own limited reads have been poor and lacking in content; at least I've been trying to analyse people whilst you've done basically nothing except soft-push and sheep opinions. Seriously if you're actually town here then I am going to have some very choice things to say about this garbage in post-game. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 09 2016 09:12 scott31337 wrote: I do see your point here - but we also know there's only one scum left, so there's no collusion anymore either. ? I didn't say anything about collusion anywhere. Don't put words in my mouth. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
It feels like forever now I've had people throwing shade on me but never actually challenging ANYTHING I've said or any of the reasonings behind my reads. Just going "hurr, I don't like this bit" in an attempt to make me look bad whilst not giving me anything to reply to. If you think I'm scum then ACTUALLY COME AT ME. Stop hiding behind this nonsense of "this bit is wrong now"; of course its wrong NOW because we know the flips, it does NOT mean the REASONING is illogical and deceptive. Here's a tip: town can look scummy, just because someone is town does not mean they're never going to look scummy. This can result in bad reads like you've pointed out. This is the reason why mafia ever wins in this game, because they look less scummy than members of town for mislynches. That is the entire game. This is also why the reasons behind people's reads are so important, because the reveal the mindset of the person making the reads. I have tried to pick holes in what people have said. Hardly anyone has attempted to do that with any of my posts. If you think I'm scum actually try to find something to challenge me on. Here's an easy one for you as an example: why did I shenanie onto KSC on D2? Lunatic flipped scum, KSC flipped blue. IIRC I was super interested in a shenanie around that time to get the vote off Lunatic. Why so interested in that? Answer: Because more often than not when there's only one train its likely to be town unless the train is obv scum who scum basically have to bus. That isn't to say it can never happen (if a train is getting pretty heavy bussing is very, very tempting for easy towncred; which is why I still have eyes on scott despite him voting Lunatic, the point at which he voted was when the train was getting pretty strong with four on it already) but statistically speaking its a pretty good bet. Lunatic wasn't 100% scum, not at that stage. If he was then Rels and silent wouldn't have changed also (one of whom is confirmed flipped town and one of whom is probably town). God almighty it comes to something when I have interrogate MYSELF for potentially scummy actions...this game is absolutely dire. -_- | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 09 2016 08:50 scott31337 wrote: Scott31337/me - Luna's main lynch most of the game - Voted on Luna day 2 with the tight race Stop lying and being deceptive. This is Lunatic's "want to lynch" progression: First was Grac because of salt from a previous game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25901957 Then he was wound up at RB for the nonsense, although he did try to dismiss it as not being important and said it makes him town; since your alignment is the same as RB this is relevant because his spam was NAI, calling it townie is weird as hell: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25902430 More building a feeling on Grac, perhaps trying to get people to warm up to a D1 Grac lynch? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25903301 THEN expressed interest in lynching KSC: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25903359 Back and forth on Grac some more: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25904078 More "soft defense" of RB's garbage, and therefore your own alignment, rather than just calling it as the NAI it was: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25904080 Wants to lynch Rels: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905067 And again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905115 Calls you for town, again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905124 Wants to lynch Rels again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905129 Votes Rels: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905139 -D1 flip- Towning you, scumming Rels, KSC and Grac: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25906289 Towns you AGAIN, ARE WE SEEING A PATTERN YET? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25906653 Wants to lynch either Rels or Grac: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25906794 Wants to lynch either KSC or BTDT at this point; FINALLY something negative about you, but merely saying that your case is full of holes not that he'd lynch you. I also have no idea what case he's referring to here, this is actually super weird because I don't think you MADE a case: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916512 Trying to get people to disbelieve KSC's claim without outright CCing it, so he wants KSC dead: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916662 Throwing shade on silent: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25922724 And again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25922925 Votes me: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25923453 Takes back his scum read of me in order to say that my first big post was good: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25923520 The only time he ever voted you that I can find was here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916399 At which point he already had 6 votes on him, the vote on you took you to 2 and roughly ten minutes later he took the vote off you and put it on KSC. You're a liar, scott. Lunatic was towning you for most of the game, and making excuses to read RB as town from that spam even before you subbed in. He voted you precisely once and only when it didn't matter. You voted him when there were already a solid 4 people on him and it looked like no other wagon was going to get going. I'm actually glad you made me do this, because this makes me damn near certain you're going to flip red. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
EBWOP: In my book that gets you very little towncred. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
BTDT and silent....in light of all of the above garbage, my dissections of scott's filter and the outright lies he's just been peddling...is scott still hard town for you? Because if he is I'm done with this game. This is goddamn stupid. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
EBWOP: I went back and took a look at the thread around this time. I THINK he might not be saying "scott's case" but "the case on scott". Just the previous page I'd filter-dived scott: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916284 In which case I can't find anything anywhere in Lunatic's filter where he said anything negative about scott. The closest he got was calling my case on him nice but also tempering that by saying its "full of holes". | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
##Vote: Scott31337 | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
At which point he already had 6 votes on him, the vote on you took you to 2 and roughly ten minutes later he took the vote off you and put it on KSC." Actually he had 7 votes on him at that point. I missed the KSC vote and it wasn't included in the total count in the next vote update for some reason (it says 6 but there are 7 names). Doesn't actually change anything though. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 09 2016 12:14 scott31337 wrote: You didn't even think of J roc, or anyone else being scum and you are going after me. No, I didn't. Because nobody else aligned with coming from a scum mentality except MAYBE Skynx. I've been thinking about it since the two scum flips so when Skynx died it left you as the best chance of lynching mafia. silent is pretty much town for certain. Several incidents have piled up to make it near impossible that he's the last mafia. BTDT I didn't like for much of the game but relatively recently a whole bunch of indicators have come along. Also, no way does he write that big night post scumming the hell out of Skynx, only for Skynx to be killed and flip town. No way. J Roc has been consistently and constantly calling for your lynch all game. And his posts are fairly good and seem to be from a town mindset. You, meanwhile, have posted some stuff that felt icky and then had virtually no further posts. There's a handful of very weak comments in there, mostly sheeping stuff. And a handful of promises to do stuff that never materialised for whatever reason. You've only popped up now with an attempt to scum me; but your arguments are falling apart at the seams, I've already pointed out an outright lie and attempt to deceive just before. On top of that without even properly diving them, just skimming, I keep finding bits in Lunatic's and Moosy's filters defending you, towning you or generally casting shade on those coming anywhere near to scumming you. Hell even NOW just quickly checking J Roc's filter and looking at a couple posts in context I find this post: On August 02 2016 22:03 MoosyDoosy wrote: This is the weird part of the low hanging fruits. There should have been a Mafia on Race Bannon because he was too easy a chance to kill especially when we look at the list of people voting for him: KSC mderg Stutters btdt J Roc KSC is null-town for me right now, mderg flipped town, and Stutters is fairly town. That leaves us with btdt and J Roc and btdt is the more likely. Especially considering he had such shit reason to vote Race Bannon in the first place because he tried to make up a reason to show RB as scummy when the spammy stuff RB was doing was completely NAI. If you look at the final votecount, you see that Grack/silent were on every possible wagon except for the btdt one as well. I'm pretty sure the team is btdt/Grack/silent. Moosy REALLY pushing the idea that there has to be a mafia on the original RB train (missing the fact that J Roc actually voted for you, i.e. scott). On the basis that it was a super easy bus to make. What do we make of this thing? mderg and Stutters both flipped green. KSC flipped blue. The one he's really pushing is BTDT who is unlikely scum at this stage. His team is BTDT/Grack/silent thanks to the association on votes he was pushing. Grack has since flipped town too. In light of him being mafia its not unreasonable to assume the reason Moosy was pushing this idea that there was a scum on that train is because there was no scum on there. Sure, it was a super easy bus to make but you don't HAVE to take it. Especially if its likely said person will be replaced. Its also a super easy idea to push in the mind of everyone, because its something people will accept quite easily. Right now my elimination path would be you and then...I guess J Roc if you flip town because he's wanted you dead all game. I dunno, I guess I'd have to see who was left alive and re-read the entire game. But based on everything I've read so far its unbelievably unlikely you flip town here. I guess tomorrow I'll go through the two mafia flipped filters again to see if I'm missing anything. Can't hurt, but I don't think so. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 02:40 silentwarrior wrote: The biggest reason he was town for me was his intro and the fact that Lunatic voted for him. But didn't notice before that lunatic already had 6 votes on him at that point. He has at the very least gone down far from being hard town. May want to investigate more on him. I honestly still don't get why people like scott's intro tbh. It came across to me as incredibly flimsy. But yes, Lunatic's vote on scott was literally a ~10 minute affair when Lunatic was already being lynched by six votes. On August 10 2016 02:48 silentwarrior wrote: But I am quite puzzled by last nights kill. There was a decent chance that skynx would be lynched, and there are a lot better options for night kill. I see 3 reasons for killing skyns. 1. The most obvious town players had townread the mafia 2. Skynx had scumread mafia and he wanted rid of him 3. He was trying to cast shade on the ones that skynx had scumread. I don't think 2 is likely, it would be too suspicous tbh. Can say as of right now, I consider only btdt as the only town apart from me. Rest I am unsure about. I think I already addressed this above but to reiterate: - if scum!scott kills you or BTDT then he removes one of the two people hard towning him, leaving him in a game with three people scumming him and one towning. - if scum!scott kills me or J Roc then it invites heavy suspicion because both of us have been banging that drum all day (in fact J Roc been banging it all game). Which might make people reassess. - consequently the safest possibility for a scum!scott is to kill Skynx. Skynx wasn't as verbal about wanting to kill him, but was still scumming him: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25925912 That reduces it to a 2v2 scenario with two townreading him and two scumreading him. Which is why he's trying to put me and J Roc as head to head. BTW: 1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive; both you and BTDT are basically impossible to lynch today given the indicators over the past couple days, you're both hard town for today at least. And you're both reading scott as town and Skynx was scumming him. Which means 2 of your 3 reasons are true in the event it was scott pulling the trigger there. This is all WIFOMable of course. But its a fairly simple case of deduction here. I don't think its reaching too much. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Lets do the same with Moosy: Straight away claiming that RB was just spamming for the sake of spamming and telling everyone to ignore him entirely for the first day. RB's stuff was NAI but this is REALLY pushing the limit of how far we can just ignore it: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25902875 Doesn't like policy lynches (in respect to the idea of plynching RB): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25902985 "60% sure RB was town": http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25903312 Moosy agreeing with Lunatic that RB's stuff has no bearing on the game (arguably true, but an interesting interaction given that its between both scum and they're agreeing on this): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25903317 Minimal interaction between scott and Moosy, doesn't really push him just asks for an opinion and then says he's disappointed by the null read, but no attempt to pressure: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25904309 Pushing the "there was 100% a mafia on the RB wagon" thing super hard, in combination with scott claiming the same: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905861 "there has to be a Mafia on Race Bannon train and only real viable option is btdt": http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916581 OH MY GOD GUYS THERE HAS TO BE A MAFIA ON THE RB WAGON AND ITS BTDT, SEEING THE PATTERN YET, ANYONE?: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25917020 Moosy spent like...virtually all of the game that I can see totally focused on two things: 1. the idea that there HAS to be a mafia on the RB wagon and 2. the idea that it HAS to be BTDT This indicates to me two things respectively: 1. since Moosy was pushing that so hard all game there probably wasn't actually a mafia on the RB plynch wagon and 2. BTDT probably isn't scum Since silent is pretty much never scum here the last mafia is either scott or J Roc. And I'm liking scott for it way more based on their respective filters and arguments and the attitudes the flipped mafia have towards them. On a side note I also caught this in skimming through, useful interactions: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905844 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905857 | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 06:18 beentheredonethat wrote: Im im the hospital. Daughter had accident. I concede the game im last scum. God almighty I hope she's okay. Take care, BTDT; both you and your family. That aside very well played. You likely would have won here. I had this day's vote as between scott and J Roc with a very, very heavy lean on scott. If it'd got to the last day then I had some tinfoil stuff that you might have still been scum (in fact a couple hours ago I was seriously considering that if scott flipped town you HAD to be the last scum despite the recent indicators; I was going to post as much but I worried that it'd give mafia ideas) but making that decision for myself and trying to convince others of it are very different things and I don't know if I could have persuaded people onto that. Can't speak for Onegu but for the last day between you and scott it would be 100% scott all day every day so if you, silent and scott had gone on J Roc and then you'd killed silent then I can't see how scott isn't dead the next day over you. You vs J Roc is a bit up in the air given how I was feeling about if scott flipped town. You vs silent would be me 100% voting you because silent was never mafia this game. But since silent had you as definite town then you'd probably both have just lynched me. This is also I think 2 out of 3 games I've been involved in with scott in it so far that I've wanted to lynch him when he's town. And the third game I didn't want to lynch him because I was his goddamn scumbuddy. I think I'm going to have to concede I just flat out cannot read him at ALL. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 06:40 Onegu wrote: was so fucking infuriating. I would check a filter post something and it would be on the onegu account... First time that happened was hilarious though. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 06:48 beentheredonethat wrote: Shes not in danger. Thank god for that. Best wishes, don't apologise. Stuff happens. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 06:49 scott31337 wrote: Basically trying to figure out the last mafia - but BTDT with his vote I basically gave a free pass to. You and J roc seemed to always be on the wrong side of the votes. Oh well it's done now. I mean...I know I was frequently on the wrong side of the votes, I found this game to be utterly infuriating to try to read actually, but holy hell the reason for me spamming up the thread so much was to give people enough info on the reasons behind my reads so as to make it clear I was coming at it from a logical and factual perspective. That being said logic and facts didn't exactly work out too well for this game. X-D | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Moosy probably had a reasonable chance of getting found out and lynched eventually though he made some great plays and Lunatic outed himself in order to secure the KSC kill after he was getting lynched anyway. But BTDT...I didn't like him much for the first couple day phases but he was never quite scummy enough to outright lynch, certainly never scummy enough for people to be persuaded to put enough votes for a lynch. And then he picked up just enough town indicators to make him near unlynchable for nearly everyone at the end there. I kinda feel he should be nominated for an award or something for this game. He played great. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 06:55 Rels wrote: -snip- I actually really hated that post. But my problem is that I got sidetracked by the attempt to link me and scott. Given that all three mafia were alive I was very much worried that BTDT and scott were both scum and BTDT was setting up to read scott as town based on my town flip. The problem THERE, of course, was that I had that in mind so firmly that they had to be a pair setting that up that when Lunatic flipped red and Moosy got modkilled I was completely thrown because they couldn't be scum together. Which meant that only one of them could be scum. And it seemed to make more sense that BTDT was just making a dumb association than he was scum making a potential association to make scott less lynchable (in my eyes). So I just let go of my scumread on BTDT to focus on scott. A mistake, of course. But still. Then again as above I'm now 2 for 2 on reading town!scott as scum. X-( | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 06:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: A useful tip is that when someone is right all the time when everyone else is wrong all the time, the guy that's right all the time is probably mafia. Yup; one thing I picked up from live games in years gone by was basically along the lines of "wrong does not necessarily equal mafia". I tended to find people would always get hung up on people making wrong reads, especially in face-to-face sessions. Rather than thinking about why they were making that read and whether it was for garbage reasons. I was going to post that earlier in big letters but kinda felt that if I posted something so blatant people would think I was trying to wriggle out of being accused in a crappy way. Then again I wish that someone, ANYONE, who had tried to pick me for scum had actually tried to pick a hole in my arguments anywhere rather than just going "yep, scum". There was a reason I tried to provide a basis for all my reads for people to evaluate. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
At least I'm done before my holiday. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 07:16 Onegu wrote: Wasn't the first time I slipped day 1 when I said RIP RaceBannon but it wasn't connected Yeah it wasn't connected that one. The next one though you literally replied to your own post on a different account. X-D | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 07:35 silentwarrior wrote: This is suprising to read since the biggest reason I didn't like you in the game was because you went after people you disagreed with or who had done a mislynch or the like. I even said so in-game several times. ??? Disagreeing with people or doing mislynches is never enough reason to scum them by itself. What it IS enough to do is to get me looking at their filter again to see if I either missed something that they brought up about that person, or to see if their tone and/or reasoning doesn't hold up too well. Which I did, repeatedly, every time someone did something odd. (Something of an advantage over live play, you have filters to double-check back on.) Problem was with like a third of the game being basically afk for big chunks and another third of the game posting super weirdly all over the place I kept running into scummy things in basically EVERYONE'S filter. Which made it near impossible to draw decisive conclusions. Once or twice when doing some analysis I actually ended up with the conclusion that EVERYONE IN THE GAME was scum. Which necessitated me starting over with the filtering and analysis because it was obviously impossible for that to be the case. I mean...its literally all in my read posts and filter dives. I don't know what to say here. Did you read them? I mean, did anyone read them, considering I don't think anyone challenged any of it? :-\ | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 10 2016 08:36 -Celestial- wrote: ??? Disagreeing with people or doing mislynches is never enough reason to scum them by itself. What it IS enough to do is to get me looking at their filter again to see if I either missed something that they brought up about that person, or to see if their tone and/or reasoning doesn't hold up too well. Which I did, repeatedly, every time someone did something odd. (Something of an advantage over live play, you have filters to double-check back on.) Problem was with like a third of the game being basically afk for big chunks and another third of the game posting super weirdly all over the place I kept running into scummy things in basically EVERYONE'S filter. Which made it near impossible to draw decisive conclusions. Once or twice when doing some analysis I actually ended up with the conclusion that EVERYONE IN THE GAME was scum. Which necessitated me starting over with the filtering and analysis because it was obviously impossible for that to be the case. I mean...its literally all in my read posts and filter dives. I don't know what to say here. Did you read them? I mean, did anyone read them, considering I don't think anyone challenged any of it? :-\ In fact in at least some cases I was doing the exact opposite, not liking people's reads but liking the reason for it and the tone behind it. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
"I even said so in-game several times." As far as I can tell every time you 'called me out' for this you were actually just ignoring parts of my reasoning behind my reads. :-\ | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
To address a thing from there (because I'm not sure if I should be posting in there now even if the game is over). Which I already mentioned in-thread but might have been missed: rsoultin in post 89 - if you're talking about what I think you're talking about the mislynch argument with the association flip was basically a massive derp on my part. I counted as follows: 9 players, 6 town, 3 mafia 6-3 Lose one N2. 5-3 Lynch Lunatic D3. 5-2 Then I COMPLETELY FORGOT ABOUT THE NIGHT KILL FOR N3. Which meant I thought "oh great, a mislynch and a NK and we're still at 3-2 by D5". I wasn't scared of a D4 mislynch because it would end the game (because I didn't think it would end the game), I was scared of a D4 mislynch that wasn't actually me but that would put me as top candidate for mislynch on D5 (when I thought a mislynch would end the game) because I wasn't 100% sure I'd be able to keep activity up for D5 since I go on holiday this Friday and have to prepare and stuff. So I couldn't be certain I'd be about to fight a potential mislynch. I'd have rather been mislynched on D4 where it wasn't fatal for town, and hope that my flip would be informative for some of the remaining town. As it was that whole argument was academic because I'd totally miscounted. X-D | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Whole thread was pretty much inactive as hell. It was driving me to utter madness to be honest. Poorly played game by all of us townside; BTDT probably would have and should have clutched this. Game was a mafia win in all but the final score. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 11 2016 00:38 beentheredonethat wrote: Okay. I'm back home on a computer. My daughter is still in the hospital but her mum's with her and she's doing fine. Yesterday when we were swimming, she fell pretty hard on the back of her head, and later when she was in bed, she started puking, so we decided to go to the hospital because we feared a concussion. And indeed, doctors said she has a minor concussion and they wanted to keep her for 48 hours as a routine. She puked once more through the night but after that, all was fine. I didn't get to sleep much for several reasons, the machines running in the room were loud and woke me up regularly (although my daughter slept all throughout the night without disturbance) and I was highly worried about her since it was the first hospital stay I've ever had with my child (well, besides birth). However today she already felt much better and doctors said she's doing great. No fever, no high/low blood pressure, good reactions to light and so on, so yeah, another stay at night for her. Mum took over an hour ago and I'm finally home. That's a big relief. All the best to you and yours. First off, the hosting. I want to start with a big thank you to the hosts for the effort that was put in. On the other hand, there are some points that I want to raise as I did not like them: The vote counts were rather bad. Although the game was going slowly, I felt like there were so few vote counts that I asked myself if the hosts were even bothering about the game. Host questions such as the one I imposed were not answered, not even mentioned. EoD/EoNs were treated very lackluster and weren't on time. As a solution for that, I suggest to include one or two more co-hosts to the game with differing timezones. Actually yes, these are fair things to start to bring up. Personally I was really bothered by the timing of EoDs and EoNs being kinda inconsistent. I don't know if this was a communication problem between the hosts or what. All I know is that the one time I've co-hosted so far the three of us were in chat on the google document that we were using to track the game typically like a solid half hour to an hour before an end phase. So as to coordinate things and make things happen exactly on time. The other thing I'd like to bring up is that the vote counts didn't always match the actual number of people voting on someone. Which got very confusing sometimes and led to some fairly bizarre things like this: On August 05 2016 06:46 Shapelog wrote: Day 2 vote count Lunaticman (6): Rels, slientwarrior, beentheredonethat, -celestial-, scott31337, Skynx, KelsierSC Scott31337 (1): J Roc, KelsierSC (1): lunaticman SlientWarrior (0):: Skynx Not voting (3): MoosyDoosy, Currently Lunaticman is set to be lynched. The deadline is Thursday, Aug 04 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). You have to vote! Lunatic apparently has 6 votes on him but there are seven names there. Also Skynx is voting Silent, but the counter is at 0. A minor thing, but very easy to fix so...it felt a bit like the hosts were otherwise distracted and thus things like this were slipping through. Regarding the game: I feel like I over-bussed. I started D1 with putting shade on Luna already, also Moosy. My goal was to play as a standalone scummer, also since I felt like we wouldn't have much coordination given we had MoosyDoosy on the team who, to me, is a rather unreliant teammate. His modkill even confirmed that theory and I will be very carefully making the decision if I ever join a game with him again. The general inactivity level was poor and I have to admit that I played part in that. I didn't post too much too, although I was heavily reading via mobile. I decided to not do anything around EoD1 since I knew we had town trains only. D2, I wanted to start leading town a bit but didn't manage to pull up the motivation to even try. After the modkill/warning spree that introduced the endgame, I really felt motivated to do stuff though. I knew that Celestial had already started to un-scumread me so I put in heavy effort. I knew that Celest, who's a high volume poster on his own, would take that as a town indicator so I felt kinda save leaving him alive. Killing Skynx over Celest/Silent was a choice that I made after having a skype discussion with my coach, Artanis. Kudos and a big thank you to Artanis at this point. Killing Skynx over Celest wouldn't make any sense as scum and I highly hoped people would take the Skynx kill as a tinfoil Celestscum move, or as a scott/jroc kill. Well. I'm not sure if I could've taken the win. But given that Celestial would've been my next kill and LYLO would've been Silent/Jroc or Scott, I think my chances were actually quite decent. I won't sign up to a game with Kelsier though. General activity level was terrible anyways. I don't know about the over-bussing thing. I mean it kept you alive quite well and you ended up heavily townread. It CAN be a risky strategy but it worked. Moosy's inactivity was basically a disaster for mafia team though. Activity I mentioned above, yeah it was terrible. Although as mafia you shouldn't actually blame yourself for it. If everyone else is low-volume then it absolutely make sense to go low-volume yourself so as to blend in. Its the job of town to drive the game forward and to put pressure on mafia to do things, because mafia is more likely to slip up if they have to keep up with a lot of posting. As mafia you were merely taking advantage of the way the game was going. When it came to endgame I'm honest in what I said the other page: if it'd have come down to you vs silent on D5 I would have voted you all day. If it'd come down to you vs J Roc then I'd have been far, far more suspicious; silent was obv town. J Roc was the scummiest person left to me other than scott for D4 but it felt like it'd be too easy to simply go scott then J Roc especially given how Onegu was tunneled literally all game on scott. So that'd have probably resulted in me massively filtering again (as much as I'd be able to because of the holiday) and could have gone either way for D5. The Skynx kill was good; to me it seemed like the absolute only play that a desperate scum!scott could make. However...it also felt too easy. I was super comfortable lynching scott but I had some tinfoil theories going on in the back of my mind that I never gave voice to; along the lines of "since its the ONLY reasonable play that a scum!scott can make...is it TOO obvious a play for scum!scott to actually make? And that makes him town? Maybe?" I dunno if I'd have nailed you with a shenanie D4 though if I'd eventually come to the conclusion that the move was SO obviously a scum move by scott that it couldn't possibly have been him actually making it, more likely I'd have flipped J Roc at that point as my next most likely scum candidate. My D4 lynch was almost certainly between him and scott. Killing me next I think would have been a good move. Assuming the scott lynch went through you'd be left with J Roc who I don't think looked at anyone much except scott and silent who was super townie all game and had you as town. Onegu probably dies there unless he works a miracle on your filter. With me alive the last three alive would have either been me/you/silent or me/you/J Roc. As I said above in the former situation I always vote you and although silent was townreading you there was a chance of it not necessarily going your way (and your ONLY option there would be to try to lynch me, because silent was unlynchable). In the latter I had a tinfoil hat on so whilst it wasn't out of the question that you'd manage to get one of us two lynched it was less certain; especially if I managed to pick something out of your filter I really didn't like. At least that's how it felt to me. Its where I was coming from. | ||
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 11 2016 09:56 Shapelog wrote: Scoobydoo was Cele, Slient was shaggy, and Lunatic was the villain. I have achieved all I want in life now. :3 Anyway I'm not sure there's too much to pick apart there. Its a pretty good overview I think. Honestly I found the game intensely frustrating. I didn't mean to end up trying to lead town but with the sheer lack of anyone doing anything I just felt more and more that I needed to do SOMETHING to drive the game forward. Given the inactivity my reads were all over the place. But probably the biggest problem was because nobody actually really challenged my reads or any of my logic at any point I ended up kinda stuck in an echo-chamber a bit. With nobody actually questioning my thoughts I had to rely on questioning myself. That's never as good as outside perspective which is always better as it provides new perspectives. Which meant that a lot of the time it was very difficult to correct myself when I was going down a wrong path. :-\ | ||
| ||