EPTNewbie Student Mafia XXII - Page 9
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But then when he conjured up a cute little theory based on the VCA N1 association between silent and Grack I gave him a ton of credit because: 1. it couldn't be faked, it was hard votes and 2. it seemed to show genuine thinking about the game. Since then I'd more or less just subconsciously dismissed him as a possibility. Because even though it was wrong it had a solid, logical basis; which is super townie. X-( | ||
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On August 08 2016 08:37 silentwarrior wrote: Best thing to do is to look at everything Moosy and Lunatic did know that we know they are mafia. I'm also pretty sure both btdt and scott are town. Tbh I still really, really don't like most of what scott has posted. And I don't like his total inactivity despite constant promises for stuff. However I've been filter diving MYSELF just a little bit now and I find this exchange very interesting: On August 05 2016 05:31 -Celestial- wrote: This is garbage as above. DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THIS. SCOTT CAN STILL BE SCUM EVEN IF I FLIP TOWN. We now know that there is only one scum at most between scott and BTDT. At the time the way BTDT here was talking it LOOKED (to me) like he was setting things up to read scott as town based on me flipping town. Which I hated, because it'd give "town armour" to scott against a lynch later on. Potentially allowing for two mislynches in a row and winning scum the game. Which would imply both scott and BTDT were on scum team and working to get scott heavily townread and potentially win the game. In light of the fact that is now actually impossible BTDT looks way, way better here. I know that I'll flip town (you don't have to believe me, just take it for this argument). Which means the three possibilities are as follows: 1. scum!BTDT was implying town!scott would be town on the basis of my flip being town. Why does a scum set up a potentially easy lynch target (given scott's total inactivity) as being town read on the basis of someone else's town flip? 2. town!BTDT was implying scum!scott would be town on the basis of my flip being town. Which is just a read and association mistake. 3. town!BTDT was implying that town!scott would be town on the basis of my flip being town. Which, as above, is just an association mistake (as I outlined myself, me being town doesn't necessarily make scott town). Since 1 is the only scenario where BTDT is scum and is super, SUPER unlikely then BTDT looks way better in light of all that. | ||
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Votes: Lunatic - D1: Rels D2: Rels > Scott > KSC D3: Celestial Moosy: D1: Didn't vote D2: Lunatic > KSC D3: Didn't vote | ||
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Lunatic went with Rels D1 who was inactive as hell until EoD. Then went with Rels again starting D2, flipped to scott when there were 6 people on him, one on scott and one on silent. Then flipped to KSC to make the spread 6 on him, 1 on scott and 1 on silent. This is actually pretty weird I think. I'll have to check his filter from around the time of these votes. Then D3 he just went me. Because he was getting lynched full stop and it didn't really matter. I guess maybe he was trying to feel out if anyone would go for a different lynch even in spite of the cc, but that was never happening. | ||
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Town: silent Townlean: BTDT Scumlean: scott Need to re-read filters: Skynx, J Roc | ||
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On August 08 2016 09:50 silentwarrior wrote: Don't just look at mafia votes, look at who voted for them. Btdt voted for lunatic pretty early, which imo should have very strong townlean. Scott got voted on by lunaticman, which should clear him as well. Obviously In fact the BTDT attack on Lunatic is literally the only thing (until now) that I've found townie. Which is why I was pushing scott ahead of him. The Lunatic vote on scott doesn't clear scott for me. Because it was largely inconsequential at the time as far as I can tell. If I'm reading this right there were six votes on Lunatic and only one other on scott. | ||
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If I'm still alive tomorrow I want to dive to compare and contrast the three. But in case I'm not, and since a bunch of people are just flat out overlooking scott, I want to draw attention again to this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/511961-newbie-student-mafia-xxii?page=42#838 scott has done NOTHING to deserve a town read. Almost every question he has asked is incredibly weak and along the lines of "have your reads changed?" and "what is your opinion now?". i.e. really softball questions. And he doesn't even make up for the weak questions with extensive analysis. The only person he seems to have put real pressure on beyond that is BTDT when he specifically asked for a couple of scum reads off him. Who he has been scumming since the moment he got in this thread off the back of the single bad post early on. Yes, it was a super bad post, but its not the only thing BTDT has done that he can be read scummily for and saying you're happy to vote for him off the back of that one post seems insane. He's not actually asked any really probing questions at all. When I questioned him about why he hadn't had me on his scum list (on the basis that I was scumming RB for it to, I just hadn't voted) he replied with this: On August 01 2016 12:22 scott31337 wrote: I only added the people who actually voted for me - There was a vote in the main thread for Race that was not in the voting thread I didn't count either. I was looking more at who pulled the trigger to do so. And BTDT looks the worst out of those four. This is not an unreasonable response. However it is also a super lazy response. There were THREE mafia in the game at this point. Not one. And there was no way they were all on that RB wagon, no chance. Why only look for one? He's been buddying up to silent for basically the entire game and frankly I think you're pocketed. In fact almost his entire game he's been buddying up to people. As far as I can tell he's only outright actually scumread TWO people all game. One being mderg who has flipped town and the other being BTDT. He's thrown a bit of shade on me and Stutters before the mderg flip by agreeing with Gracks "squirming" thing (because we were questioning the vote) and he's thrown a bit of shade on Grack and silent by saying "nice find" in response to the vote thing Moosy led me to. There's nothing else I've seen in a quick re-check through his filter here. What. Has. He. Done. To. Deserve. Being. Town. Read? He's been inactive as hell even before the car crash, he's pushed hardly anyone, he's hardly ever scumread anyone (instead playing the incredibly scummy game of "I'm town, your town, everyone is town, isn't that nice?"), he's been buddying up to people wherever possible, his reads aren't very well backed and he's flown below the radar for the entire game. I'm not going to say "if I die lynch scott" like BTDT because that's a very dangerous game to play with only one mislynch left. What I will say is that for the love of god stop just dismissing scott out of hand every single time you provide reads. That being said: On August 09 2016 03:11 scott31337 wrote: Girl is doing better, she still needs some help around the house I hope things get better for the both of you. | ||
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That's an OMGUS to me; no solid reasoning behind scott's scumreads. | ||
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Though I'll note that night kill was probably the safest move a scum!scott could make. BTDT and silent both town him (and he needs the support honestly). Me and J Roc been very loudly banging the drum for a scott lynch which would make him look a bit suspicious if either of us died. That being said NKA absolutely reeks of WIFOM. So I don't place a huge amount of stock into this. Its just interesting to keep in mind. | ||
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On August 09 2016 08:35 scott31337 wrote: Celestial why aren't you dead if you are town? ? I'm surprised you're asking that question considering the answer logically follows from my last post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25929472 Why? Because I'm mostly focused on you. If you're scum then you can't "safely" NK me for fear of drawing suspicion. If you're not scum then I'm kinda tunneled on you so its an easy mislynch for the last scum to pick up. Either way its totally non-indicative of your alignment. | ||
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I'm loving this "being wrong on everything" though considering what an utter nightmare this game has been. You want to play the "who is right" game? We can play that game! No problem! So you've been correct on all of this, right? You're SERIOUSLY telling me you thought KSC was 100% town at the time of his lynch vote despite being totally inactive? Or Rels was 100% town despite being totally inactive for most of D1 and then getting a mislynch train going right at the end? How about being convinced Lunatic was scum? Or convinced mderg was town? Lets have a look in your filter to see! Oh no, wait, because you've got JACK ALL in your filter. So we can't actually see what you thought on most of them; not really at the appropriate times anyway. As far as what you HAVE done however...you've got one list of reads I can find here in which you: - scummed mderg, a confirmed flipped townie. - scummed BTDT, who is probably town. - towned both of the flipped reds. So yes, a bunch of my stuff this game has been wrong; however I provided a ton of reasons behind why I was making the reads I was making and tried to make it crystal clear where I was coming from so as to allow people to point out any problems and incorrect assumptions I might be making. You want to lynch me for that then go right ahead, I really don't care at this point. But DON'T even PRETEND that you're some kind of goddamn innocent in this. Your own limited reads have been poor and lacking in content; at least I've been trying to analyse people whilst you've done basically nothing except soft-push and sheep opinions. Seriously if you're actually town here then I am going to have some very choice things to say about this garbage in post-game. | ||
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On August 09 2016 09:12 scott31337 wrote: I do see your point here - but we also know there's only one scum left, so there's no collusion anymore either. ? I didn't say anything about collusion anywhere. Don't put words in my mouth. | ||
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It feels like forever now I've had people throwing shade on me but never actually challenging ANYTHING I've said or any of the reasonings behind my reads. Just going "hurr, I don't like this bit" in an attempt to make me look bad whilst not giving me anything to reply to. If you think I'm scum then ACTUALLY COME AT ME. Stop hiding behind this nonsense of "this bit is wrong now"; of course its wrong NOW because we know the flips, it does NOT mean the REASONING is illogical and deceptive. Here's a tip: town can look scummy, just because someone is town does not mean they're never going to look scummy. This can result in bad reads like you've pointed out. This is the reason why mafia ever wins in this game, because they look less scummy than members of town for mislynches. That is the entire game. This is also why the reasons behind people's reads are so important, because the reveal the mindset of the person making the reads. I have tried to pick holes in what people have said. Hardly anyone has attempted to do that with any of my posts. If you think I'm scum actually try to find something to challenge me on. Here's an easy one for you as an example: why did I shenanie onto KSC on D2? Lunatic flipped scum, KSC flipped blue. IIRC I was super interested in a shenanie around that time to get the vote off Lunatic. Why so interested in that? Answer: Because more often than not when there's only one train its likely to be town unless the train is obv scum who scum basically have to bus. That isn't to say it can never happen (if a train is getting pretty heavy bussing is very, very tempting for easy towncred; which is why I still have eyes on scott despite him voting Lunatic, the point at which he voted was when the train was getting pretty strong with four on it already) but statistically speaking its a pretty good bet. Lunatic wasn't 100% scum, not at that stage. If he was then Rels and silent wouldn't have changed also (one of whom is confirmed flipped town and one of whom is probably town). God almighty it comes to something when I have interrogate MYSELF for potentially scummy actions...this game is absolutely dire. -_- | ||
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On August 09 2016 08:50 scott31337 wrote: Scott31337/me - Luna's main lynch most of the game - Voted on Luna day 2 with the tight race Stop lying and being deceptive. This is Lunatic's "want to lynch" progression: First was Grac because of salt from a previous game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25901957 Then he was wound up at RB for the nonsense, although he did try to dismiss it as not being important and said it makes him town; since your alignment is the same as RB this is relevant because his spam was NAI, calling it townie is weird as hell: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25902430 More building a feeling on Grac, perhaps trying to get people to warm up to a D1 Grac lynch? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25903301 THEN expressed interest in lynching KSC: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25903359 Back and forth on Grac some more: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25904078 More "soft defense" of RB's garbage, and therefore your own alignment, rather than just calling it as the NAI it was: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25904080 Wants to lynch Rels: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905067 And again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905115 Calls you for town, again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905124 Wants to lynch Rels again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905129 Votes Rels: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25905139 -D1 flip- Towning you, scumming Rels, KSC and Grac: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25906289 Towns you AGAIN, ARE WE SEEING A PATTERN YET? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25906653 Wants to lynch either Rels or Grac: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25906794 Wants to lynch either KSC or BTDT at this point; FINALLY something negative about you, but merely saying that your case is full of holes not that he'd lynch you. I also have no idea what case he's referring to here, this is actually super weird because I don't think you MADE a case: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916512 Trying to get people to disbelieve KSC's claim without outright CCing it, so he wants KSC dead: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916662 Throwing shade on silent: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25922724 And again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25922925 Votes me: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25923453 Takes back his scum read of me in order to say that my first big post was good: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25923520 The only time he ever voted you that I can find was here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916399 At which point he already had 6 votes on him, the vote on you took you to 2 and roughly ten minutes later he took the vote off you and put it on KSC. You're a liar, scott. Lunatic was towning you for most of the game, and making excuses to read RB as town from that spam even before you subbed in. He voted you precisely once and only when it didn't matter. You voted him when there were already a solid 4 people on him and it looked like no other wagon was going to get going. I'm actually glad you made me do this, because this makes me damn near certain you're going to flip red. | ||
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