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In response to Shining's WoT.
Some solid reads in there, I'll prob reread this later on tonight as I run through filters.
Both you and Palmar seem to forget that that in PyP it wasn't until D3 that I really started to push my scumreads (or reads in general). D1 I don't think I voted till ~3 hours left in the day and only had a scumread on Dis.
I get where you are coming from about townreads being easier for scum, but I've been finding that getting even just one or two pretty solid townreads early on can be really useful. Kinda inspired by Damdred's play actually.
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I forgot that this game ends at 3pm my time. Gonna be working and sleeping basically the whole way until then. Fortunately(?) I bus tomorrow instead of wait -- so while I'm making less money I might be able to check in more regularly during the shift (which is to say "might be able to check in during the shift").
On a brief further review I feel like I'm just being pigheaded and wrong about Trfel. I realize that's a bit quick to conclude, but tbh this feels exactly like the game we just played where I found myself arguing with him a lot about stuff that didn't really matter. It was really inefficient use of time and generally just wasteful, and this is feeling that way too.
Plus he's said some stuff unrelated to me that makes sense, like his recent posts about scott. And I'm pretty sure if I just ignore his posts about my early play, about which I am incorrigibly biased, he's gotta just be lock town, right? Constant activity, questions that are generally on-point, unquestionable demonstrated investment in the game. It's 2am so fuck you if you expect me to go find quotes to prove this, I'm pretty sure these are all obvious.
I'm kinda ready to cop out and lynch sicklucker or someone who's not doing anything. Won't lynch Trfel, Tictock, rsoultin, nooniansoong today. Will maybe try to find reasons to add people to this list.
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Don't like Shining's reads now that I bothered to read the larger post.
Not with the conclusions -- nobody is screaming lock-scum to me either -- but it felt like he came to null/null-ish conclusions about several players despite posting enough info to come to a firmer conclusion.
Like comparing his reads to mine, since we both ended up not having a lot of clear suspects, I make it clear what I find suspicious or not suspicious about people, and what I find validating or not validating about people. People don't do scummy and townie things, or at least, I don't think they have yet in this game. Look at this...
Tictock - I kinda liked TT for town at the beginning tbh, but his recent posting worried me and made me backtrack. His early posts were short but the tone seemed pretty relaxed from the jokes with Shapelog, while also mixing some good posts, mainly the one about Trfel and his TR on him. I'm still working on my Trfel read due to how he's treating me, but I will say I really liked TT's Eden read and see pretty much what he sees. His GB read seemed pretty accurate, too, I've also played with a lackadaiscal, non-caring GB town multiple times before which has ended in GB being prime lynchbait. I could probably see where he's coming from, though I wish GB would actually play. What I don't like is TT immediately calling his GB read shit because of a one-liner from Kush in which Kush didn't even explain WHY that TR was bad. Also a red flag is the fact that I can't really find where or who TT is scumreading. The closest thing is a list of people that need to post more, myself included. I feel like TT would be more confident and focused on finding scum after his last good performance. The line "I don't have any strong scumreads but I'm pretty confident we'll hit scum" feels off. Slight scumread here, since imo scum is a lot better at giving townreads as opposed to fabricating scumreads.
Basically, he lists a lot of reasons to like Tictock. He likes Tictock's town reads, and maybe only has real issues with how Tictock came to the GB read. But then he says that because Tictock doesn't have clear scumreads, that Tictock is a scum lean? I don't get how a guy can be considered to be pretty townie based off of having a lot of reasonable townreads, but then can end up being net-scummy due to not having clear scumreads.
It'd seem to me that you would conclude that the unclear scum reads is a big red flag, mafia can just make up reasons to townread people (especially if you agree with those reads and think the people being townread are actually town, then they're just saying correct things which is easy to do), and so the townreads don't mean anything and he's clear scum.
Or, you would say that the townreads are a great reason to townread him early, because they make sense and show that he's engaged with the game. At that point, it would be more reasonable to assume that a relative lack of scumreads is the byproduct of an early game without anybody doing anything obviously suspicious, and is NAI.
But surely you can't just say both things and call it virtually a wash (slight scum lean)? If either of them didn't matter you would conclude the other one is important and read Tictock accordingly. If both didn't matter then you would just not have a read. And they're not really constructed in a way that you can think both do matter -- since both of them are good reasons to read someone a certain way, and both lead to divergent conclusions, it stands to reason that one of them is wrong and thus shouldn't matter, and that, coming to this realization, you would review the player and decide which one matters.
I felt several of his reads that conclude null/null-ish have similar issues: he describes various behaviors by the player that look like they would be alignment-indicative, but they conclude opposite things, so instead of digging into the players in more depth and detail to resolve the divergent conclusions, he just calls them "null" overall even though they shouldn't be null. He's cited enough behaviors to come to some conclusion about a player, but then manages not to do so.
Coupled with the posting style -- few, longer posts, with minimal proactive interaction -- I'm actually inclined to think this guy could be a good lynch.
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little chance ill be here for deadline tbh. so if im getting lynched let me know soon for obvious reasons
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its just a general good rule of thumb to not lynch people afk at deadline on day 1
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Sorry for doubleposting and for using way too many words, it's hard formulating exactly what I'm not liking about The Shining's post.
I guess the best way to put it is that if you have some things that make someone seem so townie -- see the first half or so of the paragraph he writes on Tictock -- but then have some things that make that same someone seem so scummy -- see the latter half and the fact that despite the former half being full of great reasons to townread Tictock, he still concludes it was incorrect -- then you have to conclude your read on one half of those things is wrong. People don't do simultaneously very townie and very scummy things. They maybe do one or the other, but never both.
That The Shining concludes that multiple people are doing both is concerning to me.
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"Basically, he lists a lot of reasons to like Tictock. He likes Tictock's town reads, and maybe only has real issues with how Tictock came to the GB read. But then he says that because Tictock doesn't have clear scumreads, that Tictock is a scum lean? I don't get how a guy can be considered to be pretty townie based off of having a lot of reasonable townreads, but then can end up being net-scummy due to not having clear scumreads"
i like this
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are we really gonna lynch the shining with the longest post in the game tho?
rly?
the shining?
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i mean it was a little too tryhard... shining does tryhard as mafia.. it is saposed to be a day where he cant play
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lets see where this goes. were going to crazy town. I dont think a mafia eden would make this push
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like that was more effort then i saw shining do in his last two final 3/4's..
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we are going to meta hell
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the other bad meta play im considering is lynching palmar because he owns me as mafia
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4) Tumblewood
5) Breshke
6)nooniansoong
8) The Shining
9) Scott
11) Rsoultin
12GlowingBear
13) sicklucker
Ok this was where I was at earlier, Shining's recent posts make me fairly convinced he is town, Bre and Tumble are also townleans for me. So that leaves me with....
6)nooniansoong
9) Scott
11) Rsoultin
12GlowingBear
13) sicklucker
Rsoul is pretty null to me, I see her mostly playing peacekeeper and her posting style makes it a bit hard to read her. Overall though she is pretty engaged and has been pretty open with sharing her thoughts so she's probably not a great lynch today.
SL is kinda in the same boat for me, and I'm tempted to just put him on a back burner but I promised to filter dive him. So here I go...
+ Show Spoiler [FilterDive] +First 3 posts still feel off to me, but Rsoul pointed out that his early posts were probably in response to Trfel's open so that might explain the odd feels I'm getting. I'm actually not a fan at all of the vote on Eden. It looks really opportunistic to me, and the followup reasoning is pretty shit. On February 16 2016 09:07 sicklucker wrote:
Edens never anything but vt or mafia with that post. I think are day one lynch is locked up see ya torm I also called this post out earlier because of the bolded, On February 16 2016 09:13 sicklucker wrote:
because on a somewhat pointless day one if I suspect someone as being mafia and not a powerole I will target them always. I dont even have to be too sure its just always the safe play I actually shouldn't have dropped this point, kus SL was talking about THIS particular D1 being pointless in this post which doesn't really make sense. I'm kinda thinking this was just an excuse to leave his vote on Eden. This is kinda backed up by the fact that SL is now saying he was voting for information but got none since nobody else voted Eden. I do sorta agree with SL about the setup speculation point. It's more beneficial to mafia than town imo, least in a semi-open setup like this. This read progression looks odd to me as well. On February 16 2016 15:57 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 15:55 Tictock wrote:
Well, did you get any read off of Trfel and Eden in their exchange?
Who do you think is trying to build themselves towncred?
You and Shape were just on a mafia team together, do you have any insights into his alignment?
Maybe you could try to talk about stuff like that rather than complain that the day is boring. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/H1ZRySi.gif) town On February 17 2016 07:10 sicklucker wrote:
shapelogs town. im sure its my only read of the game. and maybe ticktock That first post is pretty confident, so what's making him unsure about me in the next post? Also this Shape read is outa nowhere. Another odd post, so far SL has only given reads on me and Shape, so this is his first mafia read but he doesn't want to push Rsoul kus she can spew herself town? On February 17 2016 10:40 sicklucker wrote:
rsoultin is giving me mafia vibes but I still wouldnt lynch her day one because like me she has a sick ability.
Its called the spew yourself town ability its the best ability to have I'm not at all sure how SL came up with these names. I'd argue that GB, Kush and to a lesser extent Tumble have all been just as lackluster at this point in the game. On February 17 2016 11:45 sicklucker wrote:
ya lets just lynch scott or shining. literally no one else should be up untill they participate There's a pretty good shot SL is scum here, he is playing the path of least resistance on the lynch today and the one scum read he seems to have he doesn't want to push.
Neither Kush nor Scott have done much to warrant any townreads, but I also don't see much mafia motivation in their posts either. Kush is not as active as I've seen him in recent games, but that's not necessarily indicative of much. Been a long time since i played with Scott and his posts could come from either alignment.
I don't know what to do about GB. On the one hand I think he could actually be town, but on the other I'm very unimpressed with what he has posted thus far. Policy lynch is an option. + Show Spoiler +Just to be clear I'm suggesting this because GB is clearly not making an effort to make himself readable this game, and if he is town I doubt he is going to be terribly helpful anyways
So I think this all leaves me wanting to lynch SL, and possibly policy lynch GB.
##Vote: Sicklucker
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On February 17 2016 17:27 sicklucker wrote:
are we really gonna lynch the shining with the longest post in the game tho?
rly?
the shining?
Yea seeing you post this but still jump on this wagon is also pretty opportunistic imo.
Feeling good about my vote already.
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/tzYuprE.gif)
well i did say if your gonna lynch me do it before i afk for the day i cant rly hate
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Tictock you cant lynch me day one. remember how hard i tried last game? you cant do it. Im too easy of a townread you fool
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esp since i didnt really read your post and it looks like poe...
i dont think yuo know how to poe day 1
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EPT
