Newbie Student Mafia XIX

On January 27 2016 15:04 Trfel wrote:
@darthfoley (and all):
I think that Kuragari42 is town. There are a few tonal indicators in his filter that make me think this. One example is that he is very open by saying that his reads didn't logically make sense, while adjusting his reads as he receives new information. This is not the natural approach for mafia to take.

On January 27 2016 15:11 Trfel wrote:
Yeah, sorry, I'm not going to give a detailed explanation of my read on PepperMintTea right now because if I'm wrong, that would be a free defense. Which is a pretty stupid thing to do.

I feel that PepperMintTea's reads show critical thinking and an attempt to solve the game, making me think that PepperMintTea is town. I won't elaborate at this time.

On January 27 2016 15:17 Trfel wrote:
I mean, this game won't use a voting thread XD Votes are made in this thread.

Initially, _MexicanAlien seemed very eager to solve the game, but then has stagnated a bit. It's seemed like he's focused on his read on Shapelog, but has felt a bit less interactive. I still feel confident that _MexicanAlien is town, my statement just shows how convinced I initially was.

I really need to go to bed Onegu, once you catch up, I'd really appreciate an answer to my question to you in this post. Thanks!

On January 28 2016 03:29 Trfel wrote:
Onegu
Unknown
Unknown

I'm primarily scumreading Onegu because he doesn't seem interested in finding scum but instead appearing useful. The biggest example of this is his Shapelog read, which he has made a ton of comments about, but he doesn't seem to actually be caring about it. As in, his comments about Shapelog don't flow, they don't seem to be a town progression that attempts to find someones alignment.

But I need to check again when I am on a computer.

On January 28 2016 03:44 Trfel wrote:
Oh yeah, thanks nooniansoong for answering my question. That makes sense.

Another reason to be suspicious of Onegu is his answer to Eden's suspicion. Onegu's posts were focused on setting down discussion, while he claimed that he was promoting it. That statement can't come from town with Onegu's post attitude so far.

On January 28 2016 08:45 Trfel wrote:
Eden, I'm trying very hard to not direct the thread. It's a newbie game, I feel like the new players should lead it.

Basically, I don't feel that Tumblewood actually cares about his scumreads. His filter seems to be contributing, but while it is contributing, it doesn't seem like he's scumhunting. He's always scumreading the top suspects, but not talking about them, either, which is probably the biggest example of this.

On January 28 2016 09:31 Trfel wrote:
Tumblewood

Tumblewood's first post here shows that he is scumreading Shapelog, and he says that this is because Shapelog made two posts where he said that he isn't scum. Tumblewood's argument is that because a townie wouldn't do this, then Shapelog is mafia. He also said that he had a scum lean of darthfoley because of two posts where darthfoley says that he is town, and adds that darthfoley has weird wording in a sentence (the explanation of the darthfoley read is here, where he says that this is the explanation for the scum lean he mentioned previously).

Why is Shapelog a stronger scumread than darthfoley? He didn't mention anything else about their play other than these comments, which is weird. Also note that Shapelog was the top suspect at this time.

Tumbleweed returned later and posted this post with new reads. He says that he's suspicious of Onegu, Shapelog, and Trfel. He also ends up with a null read on darthfoley, saying that he hasn't done anything to give him a read. This is really strange, because he described a scum lean on darthfoley previously, for the only reasoning that he's shared about Shapelog, who is still his scum read. There are lots of things I don't like about this post, I won't go into all of them, but it really gives the impression of trying to fit in.

He later says that darthfoley's play has been solid lately, which doesn't match with his earlier statement that darthfoley hadn't done much to be read on.

In addition to these read issues, Tumbleweed feels like he's responding to questions and thread sentiment, instead of actually wanting to solve the game.

Tumblewood explained his read on Shapelog at my request, you can see this explanation here. Here, he describes why he's continuing to scumread Shapelog. However, you can see that all of the posts he quoted are between his first and second longer posts. Note that in the first post, he discounted Shapelog's "strange" play as non alignment indicative, and in the second, he said that Shapelog was scummy because of his extremely scummy play early on (pre page 16). However, the posts that Tumblewood mentions were all after page 16. This explanation isn't possible.

Logically, Tumblewood cannot be scum. It's possible that he's town and messed up somehow, but given his filter as a whole, I think that he is scum.

On January 28 2016 17:11 Trfel wrote:
I mean, I guess I can't do anything that would be unfair to everyone else.

Keep in mind that I'm not going to defend myself, so do whatever you want.

Tumblewood on Shapelog

Post #292He says that Shapelog is mafia for posting that he is town.

Post #462

Post #612

The thing is, each and every one of Shapelog's posts that Tumblewood mentioned were posted AFTER page 16. AFTER Tumblewood said that Shapelog was scummy for the things that he did before page 16. This is a direct contradiction.

It's also not possible that Tumblewood is just that convinced about people who say they are town being mafia, because he didn't react the same way about darthfoley's claims as town. Though even if this were the case, Tumblewood's play is still logically inconsistent and his read explanations don't fit with this mindset.

I'm having a really hard time seeing Tumblewood as town. Tumblewood, could you please answer?

On January 28 2016 18:07 Trfel wrote:
I mean, I may be lousy at interacting with people, but believe it or not I do have some analysis ability, enough to talk about reads

I mean, I was going to save this for later, but maybe it's just best to share it now.

I don't know why people are townreading Alur, and I think there's a fair chance that he is mafia.

His posting doesn't feel very involved. It feels like he's staying under the radar, and he's not driving things forward. I don't see him driving things forward from his perspective, either. His reads don't match well. One example of this is how he started by saying that he thinks it's wrong to townread Kuragari42, but doesn't say that he is scum. Then he says that Kuragari42 and I (Trfel) are his top scum reads, and then says that maybe Onegu is a bit scummy. And then votes for Kuragari42 over Onegu (no mention of me).

The big thing is that he's been very under the radar since he started being townread.

I think that PepperMintTea is town and always have. I've generally found PepperMintTea's posts quite insightful, particularly the early read on Shapelog (the nervous/anxious thing, that's an emotion I've commonly felt as town). Generally, players who post actually insightful info and seem to be putting out their own thoughts to solve the game are just town.

On January 28 2016 18:34 Trfel wrote:
Hm, I don't really get what you're trying to say here. If I may?

If it were just Tumblewood's first and third post that I quoted, it would be fine. However, in the second post, he says that Shapelog is scum because his early posts were just that bad. He doesn't seem to consider the more recent posts as important at all, which is very contrary to his perspective in the third post. This makes me feel that he's more interested in telling people what they want to hear than what he actually thinks. Do you mind explaining where you disagree one more time?

On January 28 2016 18:38 Trfel wrote:
I mean, I know you didn't ask me, but....

Ikidomari actually said that he was reading JesusIncarnate as both town and scum in the same post. I don't feel that this is scummy, and it comes across more like carelessly towny to me. His townread on JesusIncarnate wasn't very strong to begin with, and it is reasonable to go from a weak townread to a scumread. Ikidomari's explanation of his read changing in response to darthfoley's case on JesusIncarnate also makes sense.

On January 28 2016 19:38 Trfel wrote:
I'm not townreading him very strongly, but it's a slight read still.

Ikidomari has been very open about feeling behind and not skilled enough. To me, this feels towny. In general, when mafia isn't skilled enough, they don't try and just give up. Ikidomari's play hasn't shown this at all. Instead, he feels relaxed and natural.

His posts have felt free-flowing, and I don't think that the inconsistencies disrupt the flow of his reads from a town perspective. I realize that this is very subjective.

I also feel that he's raised a few decent points that aren't so obvious. This is also subjective, though. In general, I don't like to lynch people because I don't have a good reason to townread them; if I can't show that they are scum, I don't want to lynch them. And I personally don't feel like I can show that Ikidomari is scum right now.

On January 28 2016 19:42 Trfel wrote:
If you really want me to respond to Eden1892's post, I don't think that reads like "I think that this person is town, but they could be scum because of this" are mafia indicative. This often comes from townies who can't make up their mind, especially in newbie games. Ikidomari also does arrive at conclusions. His reads are more like "I think that this person is this alignment because of this, but I could be wrong because of this, but I think he's more likely this alignment", which feels like a reasonable approach for him to have. To me, it feels more like he's thinking about the game and is just unsure instead of trying to avoid pinning himself to his reads.

On January 30 2016 02:14 Trfel wrote:
I really like how Tumblewood gives _MexicanAlien town points for staying on his wagon instead of voting for town. As if voting for Tumblewood is more towny than voting for flipped town. Hm...

I hadn't thought about Ikidomari that way. I'll need to spend some more time trying to figure him out.

On January 30 2016 03:34 Trfel wrote:
I feel like its weird that PMT spends much of her early posting talking about townreads. Or often not even talking about townreads, but saying why other peoples scumreads are incorrect, without having a read on those people.

When PMT finally posts scumreads, they seem willing to lynch most anyone, including all suspects. This seems really strange given how aggressively PMT was shooting down non-definitive scumreads earlier. The exception to this is the scumread on Tumblewood, which was an original thought scumreading.

In regards to scumreads and the lynch, I feel that PMT has been very much in the background and non-influential. But the critical thinking is there, so I'm very unsure.

Thoughts?

On January 30 2016 03:47 Trfel wrote:
I'm on my phone. I can't do so.

The transition from townreads to scumreads is very pronounced. It's the post where PMT explains scumreads on four people iirc me, Onegu, Tumblewood, and JesusIncarnate. Before that are lots of talk about townreads and discounting other scum reads. After that it feels like a leaf in the wind, just going wherever with the scumreads and lynch. It's really weird that PMT doesn't discuss reasoning used to narrow down the lynch. Seems like PMT doesn't care to convince people about the lynch. Why did the reasoning stop? Maybe because everyone was townreading?

I don't know

On January 30 2016 05:48 Trfel wrote:
Eden1892, do you really think that Onegu would push you here as mafia?

I kind of feel like Onegu, as mafia, wouldn't do something irrational like this or push "wildly". I don't feel like you're an easy target for mafia to push, so I'm not sure what Onegu's aim as mafia would be.

On January 30 2016 06:21 Trfel wrote:
Yeah, I just realized that that's extremely interesting.

Mafia knew there was a vigilante. They roleblocked nooniansoong. I expect nooniansoong's reads at the time to have some really good info.

On January 30 2016 06:22 Trfel wrote:
He later got rid of Ikidomari, and showed increased suspicion for Tumblewood.

To me this is further evidence that Tumblewood is mafia, and suggests that JesusIncarnate is mafia.

On January 30 2016 09:23 Trfel wrote:
If I'm being scumread because I didn't explain my vote on Kuragari42:

Why would I explain my vote? I voted for the leading wagon who was gaining momentum. Convincing anyone was not needed. The only reason I'd need to explain my vote is for myself, and I already knew why I was voting. Explaining my vote doesn't accomplish anything.

If I'm being scumread because of asking questions:

Okay, imagine that all the questions don't exist. Questions are generally non alignment indicative (of course, this depends on the circumstances, for example directly pointed questions can often be more indicative). Ignoring that, I've been sharing analysis, pushing reads, and engaging with people to solve the game. Discounting my play as asking questions in an attempt to appear busy while not actually doing anything is extremely false.

If I'm being scumread because of missing one of nooniansoong's posts:

That's just stupid. I explained why above.

---

Now I suggest lynching Tumblewood, because he is mafia. Allow me to take his latest post here to show why he is mafia. I won't quote things because that would be annoying.

First, like I already said, it doesn't make sense for him to townread _MexicanAlien for voting for himself (Tumblewood) instead of flipped town Kuragari42. A vote on town is a vote on town, lynching one is not better than lynching the other.... unless one of them isn't actually town. This read only makes sense if Tumblewood is mafia.

He criticizes Kuragari42's reads and then says that Kuragari42 is begging to get lynched, and seems disappointed. After the flip has already happened. Town doesn't think like this.

He says several times that both I (Trfel) and nooniansoong haven't explained some or all of our reads. He says that I am mafia because of this, and he says that he won't trust nooniansoong's reads until there is an explanation, implying that nooniansoong is town.

He lists JesusIncarnate, Shapelog, Trfel, Ikidomari, and Onegu as his scum reads. Way to cover all the bases there. Still no involvement or direction, and no original thought at all.

Tumblewood is mafia.