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On December 04 2015 08:44 The Shining wrote:
Trfel: MD is 100% scum. NM is scum.
NM: your case is bad.
Trfel: list post. NM is scum. Damdred(flipped town) is scumlean. Discuss Damdred in list post, + fear reads on Palmar and Rels. One line response to NM about "explaining to Trfel(his strongest scumread) why his case is bad.". In case there is any doubt.
Trfel: pretty sure the game is solved.
Damdred is NKd.
Trfel: DYH Shining Disfo FF are scum.(NM read goes poof)
NM: Fidei and HtS are probably scum.
Trfel: NM is right on Fidei, might be right on HtS.
?????????????? I added the italics on my own. That sentence is wrong; my post analyzed the implications of the night kill alone, with little regard to things that weren't the night kill. When I made that post I was not yet sure what to do about NocturneMage (I'm still not, but leaning towards town).
I said that NocturneMage is right about Fidei86 being possible scum, and I should add him to the "more suspicious" list (again, NOT the scum list; I don't have a scum list).
Looking through Half the Sky's filter so far, everything seems fine (especially given that she has a cold) individually, but there seems to be no flow at all. It's a lot of commenting with few conclusions, and she's discussing a million different things with no progression on the scumreads (not pushing them or trying to figure out their alignment). I'll keep going and see if something changes, but it seems that Half the Sky is probably mafia.
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I was wrong, okay, let me be T.T This is embarrassing enough as is.
@Fidei86, yeah I can definitely see that with regards to LightningStrike at end of day. The "time to bleed town rainbows" quote struck me by surprise, and some of his read changes between End of Day and the start of Night 1 don't quite make sense, even from the "extreme survival and extremely mad" perspective. I'm still very hesitant to lynch LightningStrike at this time, though... Honestly, I'd most expect him to play like that if Damdred were the scum telling him what to do. But that obviously didn't happen.
I'll check his filter later. I guess LightningStrike also counts as a "lower activity / under the radar" player ever since the deadline, and I could see him shooting Damdred.
Bleh.
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On December 04 2015 08:51 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that  I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town. Your last scum game, you scummed, cased and shot Geript N1. This game you scummed, cased Damdred N1 and now he's NKd. This is such am obvious similarity that I'm almost inclined to think it's too bad to be scummy but this explanation is a bit long and contradictory, too. The NM not wanting to shoot Damdred logic is flawed. Especially if he had him as a townread, I'll have to go back to that. I personally as scum have shot Damdred before after he townread me to keep that read immortal, and I know others have NKd people that were TRing them before they had time to revisit that read. You also think that Damdred has an extremely good read on me, and towned me, so I'd kill him for it? This is a contradiction because you say its exactly why NM WOULDNT kill him for it. Are you saying I'm scum and scared he'd flip his read on me so I shot him before he could? Then why does that same situation make me scum but makes NM town? I don't think that my reasoning is flawed because in this case, Damdred would actively block the NocturneMage wagon and look for alternatives. I mean, it's possible that NocturneMage would shoot Damdred, however I think that's less likely. I decided to help resolve this by looking at Half the Sky for a bit (assuming for the moment that they aren't both scum and that if NocturneMage is right on Half the Sky, he's very likely town), and Half the Sky seems to be fairly likely scum, which makes me think that NocturneMage may be more likely town.
It's different for you and NocturneMage because he was about to be under a ton of pressure and you weren't. I'm not saying that you are definitely scum because of the night kill, but it makes me a little bit more suspicious of you (and that was a town lean before).
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On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing.
@Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less.
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Not sure if this is a good way to go about this, meh..
Half the Sky's read progression/scumhunting
+ Show Spoiler +Suspicious of Trfel (covering something up with LightningStrike early on), suspicious of disformation (not taking many stances), null on Rels, Damdred, MoosyDoosy, FIdei86 (why so many null reads?!?!) Investigating the Palmar/The Shining argument, no conclusion yetPalmar's post resolves Half the Sky's question about why Palmar's push on The Shining doesn't make sense (no conclusion yet) Half the Sky questions one of Trfel's suspicions of Damdred (accuses it of being a reach) Above statement clarified to be a misunderstanding (still no conclusion) Says that she was initially suspicious of Palmar for his push on The Shining (at least it seems to read this way?) but is within the realm of his town play (seems to be sort of suspicious of both of them but not enough to push it?) Fidei86 is town for how he "broke down the case" (not sure what case, I'll check later), suspicious of DoYouHas for lack of followup on Trfel, suspicious of kushm4sta for bad assumption (later clarifies to be scum leans) Question to disformation about The ShiningNull/scum lean on LightningStrike, pending some questionsA bit suspicious of kushm4sta for TMIMore suspicious of kushm4sta for not changing his voteQuestions to LightningStrikeQuestions to LightningStrike (seems to accept answers for the Palmar questions above) Needs to reread Trfel, Damdred, Fidei86, disformation, LightningStrike; lynch list is kushm4sta and DoYouHas, maybe policy Onegu, townread on PalmarAgrees with LightningStrike about his answer to one of her standing questionsDecides that she doesn't agree with LightningStrike's read on Palmar, but doesn't think that he is mafia for thisVotes for DoYouHasSeems to not want to lynch Trfel and LightningStrike, answers my question (why vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta) by saying she's suspicious of both of themBack to a null on Trfel (maybe I misread the previous post where I thought she said she didn't want to lynch Trfel?) Doesn't really want to lynch MoosyDoosy, a bit nervous of Fidei86, maybe has to resort to policy lynch, revisiting DoYouHas (why still discussing Trfel and Fidei86, not her top suspects, less than two hours to the deadline?) Thinks that there's a contradiction in these two LightningStrike postsApparently the above was enough to make Half the Sky switch votes.. what??Question to Fidei86 about LightningStrike readDoubt about lynching LightningStrikeSuspicious of LightningStrike for meta comparison with a town gameDecides that LightningStrike is a bad lynchSwitches votes to kushm4sta, presumably at The Shining's request
For now, this seems like scum. The progression isn't there, there is no focus at all. This is the original "boring Half the Sky is mafia Half the Sky" read that Holyflare and marvellosity used.
However I am in a rush, so I will take a look over this again later.
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Just realized, NocturneMage would definitely bus Half the Sky here.
So yeah, I really don't know about NocturneMage but for now I think that lynching Half the Sky is better.
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I'm on a phone and can't read the thread atm but I kind of think both NM and HTS are scum right now.
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I read the last several pages on my phone. It seems that there are a few people who are suspicious of me.
Spoiler because I don't like talking about town, this doesn't help find scum.
+ Show Spoiler +My play was too self-focused, too ego-focused. What I ended up doing was, if MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage is town, I created the easiest mislynch for mafia ever. When I realized that, I got really scared. It prevents my normal "sanity check" because I can't know if people who agree with my case actually agree with it or if they're just "along for the ride". Also, the one confirmed town player who commented on my case (Damdred, who is an incredible player) wasn't sold.
My night kill analysis probably wasn't very good. The only things I should really take from the night kill is that I'm quite fallible, and that Damdred thought that MoosyDoosy is town. I do note that someone mentioned Damdred scumreading DoYouHas and Half the Sky, that's interesting because I specifically looked for those two and didn't see anything. Did I miss stuff?
I also really messed up my thinking. I was thinking that I could sanity check NocturneMage for my read, because if he was scum I was thinking I could push him out of the game and he couldn't get the motivation to play. The Damdred night kill threw me off really badly and I let NocturneMage into the game, preventing that read from working. But for some reason I forgot that I backed off of him before he actually did anything, and applied this to townread him a little bit.
Scumreading me for changing my mind is stupid. How does this help mafia/hurt town? The only way it does is if NocturneMage is mafia. So basically, I bussed MoosyDoosy that heavily from Day 1, when I know that MoosyDoosy loves playing mafia? When I hate playing mafia, I would take that opportunity away from someone who loves it? No, I'd tell him to bus me. Like, I get that this is self-meta and it's bad. But there is no mafia motivation for this play, however you look at it.
Also, about activity, I've basically been playing mafia full time. I've been falling behind on classes, homework, studying. Something is going to need to break, and I really hope that it's my involvement in this game, because I simply can't play mafia this much and fulfill my responsibilities. Plus I don't seem to be helping that much, so there's no need for me to be that active.
I think that The Shining is town because I can never scumread people who townread me. Big flaw. But I'm going with that for now because I feel behind on every single filter right now, so I'll start there.
NocturneMage could very easily be bussing Half the Sky here because Half the Sky is sick. It could be worth it to bus in this case (both for NocturneMage to get towncredit and to relieve Half the Sky's responsibility for playing the game). I'm not saying that NocturneMage's push makes him mafia because of this, or that it's any more likely that he's mafia because of this, just that I don't think that a Half the Sky scum flip makes him look much better (relative to what you would think before the flip... I haven't quite decided what I think about that yet).
I think I kind of just want to take a break for the evening and rest, I'm darn tired. If anyone has any questions, or wants to talk about anything, let me know, I can try to look stuff up and give thoughts. But otherwise I think I'll just rest.
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Like, I actually missed dinner because I was reading Half the Sky's filter. Bad Trfel.
I'm just going to go to sleep. Good night, all.
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On December 04 2015 21:29 Palmar wrote:
Sort of happy I decided to ignore tinfoil damdred is mafia and just roll with him as town.
I'm not really putting in the effort I should this game, so sorry about that.
I'll make a decision on who I want to lynch tonight or tomorrow. I wouldn't mind this post except he's apologizing. I wouldn't expect town!Palmar to apologize. I should check some meta on this.
On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote:
In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before. Okay, so why does this make him mafia? Why couldn't he do this as town?On December 04 2015 22:38 Palmar wrote:
well if alex is nocturn, and you genuinely believe that, then we should absolutely lynch her, becuase I vastly prefer his filter over hers. It's interesting that Palmar said this, but that he had no read on Fidei86.
On December 04 2015 23:05 Rels wrote:
NK analysis is WIFOM. But Damdred's kill points at Trfel being scum. Any scum team without Trfel would let Trfel pushes at Damdred.
Now I'm catching up the 10 pages I didn't read. Why would I ever kill Damdred? When I've finally gotten you (presumably town) to be suspicious of Damdred as well, and when Damdred isn't suspicious of me?
Also, I'm very confident that LightningStrike is town now. Since the start of Night 1, he's given some very important town tells, which I don't remember him doing as mafia. This means that if he is mafia, someone who knows him well is likely also mafia.On December 04 2015 23:35 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:51 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town. Your last scum game, you scummed, cased and shot Geript N1. This game you scummed, cased Damdred N1 and now he's NKd. This is such am obvious similarity that I'm almost inclined to think it's too bad to be scummy but this explanation is a bit long and contradictory, too. The NM not wanting to shoot Damdred logic is flawed. Especially if he had him as a townread, I'll have to go back to that. I personally as scum have shot Damdred before after he townread me to keep that read immortal, and I know others have NKd people that were TRing them before they had time to revisit that read. You also think that Damdred has an extremely good read on me, and towned me, so I'd kill him for it? This is a contradiction because you say its exactly why NM WOULDNT kill him for it. Are you saying I'm scum and scared he'd flip his read on me so I shot him before he could? Then why does that same situation make me scum but makes NM town? Yes! Yes yes yes. Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:
Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here.
[...]
The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. This is contradictory. Furthermore, this is false: Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:
I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads.
[...]
Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. Damdred said: Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 06:04 Damdred wrote:
Its pretty obvious no matter what I say that your conclusion I'm mafia gor bad reasons are going to stick.
And you really haven't moosey hasn't done anything this game and is 100% a coin flip, nm will be more readable. But your case is founded on bad meta basically. Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 06:04 Damdred wrote:
I'm not saying that slot can't be scum but I don't think its as lock as you portray it. So on the contrary, scum!NM has no reason to no shoot Damdred. He has no reason to particulary shoot him too; but "f NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here." is false. This is simply wrong. Damdred said that he wasn't townreading NocturneMage, but he was clearly resistant to the lynch (as he showed on Day 1). And again, scum doesn't care to keep someone who is townreading them alive if that mafia is going to live for a few days.
Like, if The Shining is mafia, he knew that he probably wasn't going to die for a day or two, and that's a lot that could potentially change Damdred's read. Damdred's townread doesn't really mean much and it's okay to kill Damdred, and there's fear that Damdred could figure it out.
But NocturneMage was at a high chance of getting lynched the very next day, in which case Damdred's read on him at that very moment (null being better than everyone else's read, and Damdred had a lot of influence, and wouldn't lynch a null read) would be really valuable. Basically, NocturneMage would just have to stay null or look a little better and Damdred would likely try to stop the lynch.
I already said that this has too many variables and I'm unable to accurately draw a conclusion from the night kill. I believe the reasons by my earlier analysis but I no longer trust the conclusion. If you think I'm scum for being wrong, you should read any one of my town games, because I'm wrong a whole darn lot.
On December 04 2015 23:47 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 23:39 LightningStrike wrote:
Rels:
Que pensez-vous de NM et James en ce moment? fidei is super likely town. NM I have a super hard time seeing him attacking HTS heads on if he's not town. But his tone is super not analytical, which is super suspicious to me. Why do you say this?
I think it's really strange that DoYouHas made a big point of looking at kushm4sta's reads after the lynch, but didn't look D Damdred's reads after the night kill. If anything, I'd expect the opposite.
On December 05 2015 00:46 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 00:30 LightningStrike wrote:NM read my past games please? It will make you understand me as a player better O_o I had linked you some of my past games(including all my scum games): This does not answer my fundamental concern. HTS is a fucking fantastic motivator of coachees as either alignment and when she is mafia it is FUCKING PROVEN SHE MOTIVATES TEAMMATES TO VICTORY REGARDLESS OF TRACK RECORD AS MAFIA. She uses whiskey, she has leadership to pull her teammates together. In her first scum game her roleblocker almost crashed out. She spent fucking 2 hours in QT keeping him in the game and carried her team. In her most previous game as Mafia, she replaces in and immediately comes with a plan for her remaining scummate (they lost a scummer day one) who from my understanding reading that game and respective scum qt (when I was Mafia in newbie 13) is generally a poor scum player. You and her from what I can tell generally have a very good relationship with each other. Therefore my argument of her being able to motivate ANYONE is valid. Even so there is a shittonne of evidence outside her meta that indicates you are mafia. On the surface, this makes sense.
However, Half the Sky has been unable to post for quite some time now (~36 hours, I believe?). So NocturneMage is arguing that Half the Sky is coaching and motivating LightningStrike but doesn't have the energy to actually play the game herself.
Unless NocturneMage is arguing that the coaching stopped at the end of Day 1 (which is still really strange, given how much LightningStrike's play changed after the lynch), I'm having trouble seeing how he can honestly think this.
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Looking over Half the Sky's read progression throughout the game, it seems very unfocused (specifically, she didn't spend her time investigating/pushing her scum reads).
##vote Half the Sky
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On December 05 2015 03:14 Fidei86 wrote:
@Trfel you made a big long post (for reasons?) that barely mentions HTS except to say you don't think she was coaching LS after she AFK'd, then eight minutes later you've had time to read and consider her whole filter and decided she's Mafia? Huh? My first post responded to comments in the thread since I went to sleep. Half the Sky didn't post.
I already looked through Half the Sky's filter, I made a really convenient read progression analysis that stated how her reads changed, why they changed, and had links so I could check posts for more info if necessary. I had already looked through this and found the things I thought made her likely mafia, I just wanted to confirm them when I was rested and had more time. I did so.
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On December 05 2015 03:37 Rels wrote:
Trfel: because if he's scum pushing town he will be killed as soon as Hts flips town. So why isn't he scum pushing scum?
Except for the activity, NocturneMage's filter seems really bad.
I'm not sure how to reconcile the two. I'm sure that if you make that many posts in that short of a time, town would make some errors. But he seems to forget who he's scumreading, and is just throwing reasons to scumread everyone. The way he's so focused on randomly (imo nonsensically) pushing four people (with read progressions that don't make sense) and completely ignores everyone else without discussing them at all doesn't feel towny at all.
But that's not really mafia motivation, and is probably unreliable. But so is activity.
I think that townreading NocturneMage for activity alone is really bad here. He played one scumgame and hated it, and now he's in this game and is pushing things really aggressively and posting a ton. How could he be scum here?
Hm... I absolutely hated my first scum game and barely played at all. In my second scum game, I destroyed town and was a top townread for basically everyone most of the game. There are other factors too, like he finally gets to play with Half the Sky, he's clearly excited to play mafia again (the game, not alignment), that could potentially cause the higher activity as mafia.
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NocturneMage read progression
+ Show Spoiler +[ignoring the first series of posts] Trfel's case on NocturneMage is terrible (no conclusion, tone seems to suggest Trfel is town, but town does that to their scumreads sometimes) Confident in two of the mafiaHalf the Sky and Fidei86 are mafia (Half the Sky for meta, voting analysis, mafia motive / Fidei86 for being different from his previous games) Sort of suspicious of Palmar (can't follow him) Suspicious of Fidei86 for soft-pushing Half the SkySuspicious of Trfel for reversing NocturneMage readExplanation of the mafia motivation for Half the Sky lynching kushm4sta instead of LightningStrikeAssociation between Fidei86 and Half the SkyFrustrated about being scumread (when he's under no threat of lynch?), no more scumread on Fidei86 (why???)Trfel is insane or mafiaLightningStrike has a bad filter and his End of Day could easily come from scum(unrelated note, NocturneMage is using a ton of meta, often incorrectly applied, and then yelling at people for using meta... will check NocturneMage's meta use from previous town games, if it's not high, then meta suggests he is mafia  ) LightningStrike made a dumb postFrustrated with LightningStrike's lack of scumreadsThinks that Fidei86 may not be mafia because he posted about associations between Half the Sky and LightningStrikeNonsensical post about LightningStrike (draws conclusions from nowhere, interprets things that he thinks LightningStrike is saying with no reason to do so) Doesn't understand a LightningStrike postCurrently has Trfel and Fidei86 as scumreads (other than Half the Sky and LightningStrike) (Fidei86 for association and overall gameplay, Trfel for constant usage of terrible points to case people) Gets mad at LightningStrike for not understanding/accepting his argument about why Half the Sky is mafia (huh???? He's scumreading LightningStrike) More convinced that LightningStrike is mafiaTop scum reads Half the Sky, Fidei86, LightningStrike, Trfel, needs to re-examine DoYouHas and PalmarLeaning mafia on Trfel, says that LightningStrike is mafia because of bad filter and associations with Half the SkyStrongly thinks LightningStrike is mafia (says he will lynch LightningStrike after Half the Sky) Scumreads LightningStrike because Half the Sky could motivate him to play, but tons of non-associative reasons tooSays LightningStrike's post is bad, says that he wants someone to kill himself (?? LightningStrike is mafia, though??), asks a question to LightningStrike (but LightningStrike is mafia??)
On the surface, this seems really bad. But that's "objectively bad", not mafia bad. Lunch, then a look for mafia motivation, and a look at meta.
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On December 05 2015 03:51 Rels wrote:
Then Hts is scum regardless of nm s alignment right ? Yes, I think so.
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I think that NocturneMage is mafia.
He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia.
If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play.
- Very confident reads/play
- Lots of posts pushing people
- Few/no townreads, little/no interaction with townreads (the second point doesn't need to be true but often happens)
- (possibly) excessive emotions (especially anger)
- Logical gaps in reads, ignores ways that scumreads could be town
- Portrays themself as a "holy crusade to lynch mafia"
Based on this, the logical/emotional inconsistencies in NocturneMage's play, and the "four people are scum, everyone else doesn't exist" read progression, I think that NocturneMage is mafia.
Thoughts?
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On December 05 2015 04:39 Trfel wrote:I think that NocturneMage is mafia. He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia. If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play. - Very confident reads/play
- Lots of posts pushing people
- Few/no townreads, little/no interaction with townreads (the second point doesn't need to be true but often happens)
- (possibly) excessive emotions (especially anger)
- Logical gaps in reads, ignores ways that scumreads could be town
- Portrays themself as a "holy crusade to lynch mafia"
Based on this, the logical/emotional inconsistencies in NocturneMage's play, and the "four people are scum, everyone else doesn't exist" read progression, I think that NocturneMage is mafia. Thoughts? Sorry for the double post, but I should explain this better.
First, the "momentum mafia" part of this post is the least important part. It's also very subjective, and I don't care to debate it. I'm not saying that these characteristics always come from mafia. However, I think that it is mafia indicative for NocturneMage because they're all so different from his town play.
The other points were described by the read progression I posted earlier. You should be able to see them yourself in that. The Fidei86 read progression is really strange as far as a logical read goes, and the LightningStrike posts show emotional responses that don't make sense from town. I only commented on a few things, there are many more things than I mentioned.
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On December 05 2015 07:14 NocturneMage wrote:
ebwop - ls not taking many stances is mafia motivated because when he flips we can't sort out his teammates (or assuming an LS/HTS/+1 team) the final teammate. This is so, so, so, so, so stupid/wrong.
NocturneMage is mafia.
Hand is numb and I can barely type.
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On December 05 2015 03:49 Trfel wrote:NocturneMage read progression+ Show Spoiler +[ignoring the first series of posts] Trfel's case on NocturneMage is terrible (no conclusion, tone seems to suggest Trfel is town, but town does that to their scumreads sometimes) Confident in two of the mafiaHalf the Sky and Fidei86 are mafia (Half the Sky for meta, voting analysis, mafia motive / Fidei86 for being different from his previous games) Sort of suspicious of Palmar (can't follow him) Suspicious of Fidei86 for soft-pushing Half the SkySuspicious of Trfel for reversing NocturneMage readExplanation of the mafia motivation for Half the Sky lynching kushm4sta instead of LightningStrikeAssociation between Fidei86 and Half the SkyFrustrated about being scumread (when he's under no threat of lynch?), no more scumread on Fidei86 (why???)Trfel is insane or mafiaLightningStrike has a bad filter and his End of Day could easily come from scum(unrelated note, NocturneMage is using a ton of meta, often incorrectly applied, and then yelling at people for using meta... will check NocturneMage's meta use from previous town games, if it's not high, then meta suggests he is mafia ) LightningStrike made a dumb postFrustrated with LightningStrike's lack of scumreadsThinks that Fidei86 may not be mafia because he posted about associations between Half the Sky and LightningStrikeNonsensical post about LightningStrike (draws conclusions from nowhere, interprets things that he thinks LightningStrike is saying with no reason to do so) Doesn't understand a LightningStrike postCurrently has Trfel and Fidei86 as scumreads (other than Half the Sky and LightningStrike) (Fidei86 for association and overall gameplay, Trfel for constant usage of terrible points to case people) Gets mad at LightningStrike for not understanding/accepting his argument about why Half the Sky is mafia (huh???? He's scumreading LightningStrike) More convinced that LightningStrike is mafiaTop scum reads Half the Sky, Fidei86, LightningStrike, Trfel, needs to re-examine DoYouHas and PalmarLeaning mafia on Trfel, says that LightningStrike is mafia because of bad filter and associations with Half the SkyStrongly thinks LightningStrike is mafia (says he will lynch LightningStrike after Half the Sky) Scumreads LightningStrike because Half the Sky could motivate him to play, but tons of non-associative reasons tooSays LightningStrike's post is bad, says that he wants someone to kill himself (?? LightningStrike is mafia, though??), asks a question to LightningStrike (but LightningStrike is mafia??)On the surface, this seems really bad. But that's "objectively bad", not mafia bad. Lunch, then a look for mafia motivation, and a look at meta. Here, I say that it's really strange/scummy that NocturneMage keeps trying to convince his scum reads that they are scummy.
On December 05 2015 07:11 NocturneMage wrote:
deadline is tomorrow at 23 GMT.
back to catching up. also love how scum Trfel is taking my argument out of context in post 1287, the coaching very likely would have existed through the end of cycle day 1, HTS is capable of giving advice beyond her participation (as in general coaching and/or motivation a good example is the whole whisky bullshit, it's just automatic after the first mislynch) and with the exception of LS's list post, his gameplay has still been mafia motivated, not giving reads, not really pushing anyone (except scumming Trfel and then dropping it) and then when I try to discuss HTS, he's like saying the exact same reason I'm voting her and then having her as null, it's basically saying he's not committing to something and I know last he was townreading me, don't recall him saying "NM is town but wrong on HTS" or taking stances that some of us can easily flesh out, aside from that list post.
also saying my mafia play is like his in post 1301/1308 is just bad. town should be confident in their reads if they want to push lynches, I mean look at rayn (my exp from newbie 14), he just sauntered about, cursing about probably worse than I have as he tried to push his lynches, you have Shining this game whose tone comes off the same way - not quite as emotional or off-putting, but pretty straightforward, the holy crusade largely comes from me vs Dani, that is more personal than anything and at worst should not be alignment indicative, if you meant my intro I already explained that to Rels and it's somewhere in my filter.
tldr - comparing me to you in post 1301 is just a poor argument and you're finding bad excuses for scumreads just like you did with my predecessor.
resuming from page 25. Here, NocturneMage comes back and starts out describing my (Trfel's) play to everyone else, but then he starts talking to me (Trfel) again. In addition to everything else (like me being scum enough that he talks to me condescendingly, but still explaining to me why I'm scum), he's trying to adjust his play based on what his scum read (me) is saying.
I also scumread him for focusing on four people all the time and ignoring everyone else. He immediately starts talking about other people (The Shining and disformation). It's the same thing again.
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On December 05 2015 08:04 NocturneMage wrote:
congratulations on missing the part where I said I'm reading from page 25. if you are trolling me you are doing a great job of it. What does this have to do with anything?
Two mafia is enough for me for now. I'd just prefer to make sure I'm right on the two.
I believe NocturneMage said that Half the Sky might come back tomorrow (presumably European time) but probably not today.
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EPT
