EPTHe wants to clearly get rid of us, so nobody pushes him lylo/mylo/whateverlo.
Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 127
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
He wants to clearly get rid of us, so nobody pushes him lylo/mylo/whateverlo. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
It wasn't a scummy case (now we know obviously) but I isolated independent reasoning for his case on Dani and you cannot positively exclude the possibility that he could have come up with the case on HTS from town. You also cannot say its probable for him to bus the roleblocker over what you did (vanilla for equiv) and lining that up with the stances you took on Dani that's where the problem comes in. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped. Gnight folks @LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels. On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. On December 06 2015 07:04 DoYouHas wrote: My PoE right now looks like this: Town: Rels, Shining, LS(I am still on board with the EoD VT claim) Townlean: Disfo, Palmar, Fid (need to look into him more) Unfiltered: NM, FF Suspicious but incomplete: Trfel Scum: HTS On December 07 2015 08:00 DoYouHas wrote: Looking at HtS's filter I have a couple of thoughts. 1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town. 2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS. 3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy. Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet. On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote: So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make. Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote: Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining... 1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads. Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere. Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case. 2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo 3. Trfel, Disfo, LS Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy) HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in... 4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo - Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia. However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting. - I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves. ##Vote: Disformation On December 08 2015 14:17 DoYouHas wrote: Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused... This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true. ##Unvote My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum. On December 09 2015 07:55 DoYouHas wrote: Screw it, I'm going to trust my initial instinct. ##Vote: Disformation Shining, get on this wagon. On December 10 2015 13:18 DoYouHas wrote: It has been a long ass day. I'm going to come back and actually read this tomorrow with non-exhausted eyes. ##Vote: Disfo See you all tomorrow. (after that he voted Rels over me...) | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 15 2015 03:58 NocturneMage wrote: Rels case for the 1000th time was 50/50 case at best. I had been telling Rels that all game. It wasn't a scummy case (now we know obviously) but I isolated independent reasoning for his case on Dani and you cannot positively exclude the possibility that he could have come up with the case on HTS from town. You also cannot say its probable for him to bus the roleblocker over what you did (vanilla for equiv) and lining that up with the stances you took on Dani that's where the problem comes in. Even if you take out the busser theory things, the case should have enough good points to make you see that he is scum. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 15 2015 03:58 NocturneMage wrote: Rels case for the 1000th time was 50/50 case at best. I had been telling Rels that all game. It wasn't a scummy case (now we know obviously) but I isolated independent reasoning for his case on Dani and you cannot positively exclude the possibility that he could have come up with the case on HTS from town. You also cannot say its probable for him to bus the roleblocker over what you did (vanilla for equiv) and lining that up with the stances you took on Dani that's where the problem comes in. On December 12 2015 01:04 Rels wrote: Hey guys I found this thing lying around in BH's bedroom! Apparently it's some kind of guide to win this game! Awesome right ? Let me transcript it for you: I hope he doesn't remark I took it ... Townie guide to winning this game Step 1: Required reading disfo's case on DYH FF's interactions with DYH are partner indicative DYH's scumread of disfo has no basis: he voted him on an "initial insctinct" which doesn't exist Part 2 of the thing above Step 2: Vote DYH Step 3: Lynch DYH Step 4: Win Only part 2 of my case on DYH is the HtS bus thing. All the other things point to him as being scum for other reason. My conclusion: You didn't even read it. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
FF a lot of people could have gone either way. Also criticism of your cases isn't scummy. His arguments have not been well put as Shining's (assuming both are town). He's always been cautious of me possibly bussing but he's had to re-read my filter. There's nothing scum like coming from him other than low activity and in of itself is not alignment indicative. I can't see 2428/2443/2444 and 2456 shows he's taking previous criteria and re-evaluating. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 15 2015 03:37 disformation wrote: Day 1 Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, Palm LightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu Day 2 Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformation NocturneMage (1): Half the Sky Day 3 Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation Trfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, Rels LightningStrike (1): Fidei86 Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHas Day 4 Rels (3): DoYouHas, NocturneMage, The Shining DoYouHas (2): disformation, LightningStrike NocturneMage (2): Fidei86, Rels Recap of vote reasoning: The Shining on kush: LS voted kush for survival. NAI. DoYouHas on LS: I already explained my reasoning for my LS vote, find it somewhere in my filter. TS vote seems town, but can come from mafia if both wagons are town. LS NAI. Mentioned that I am not fond of DYH reason like 3 billion times by now. TS on HtS: I am not sure what point he put out against her. Can someone point that out to me? Because this might be an attempt to veil he is only voting her cause NM. LS on HtS: After basically null reading her all day. Waits until very late to vote. NM on HtS: Comes in saying she is probably mafia. Talks to her like she might be either alignment. Comes back to vote her. Says he wants to write a case on HtS without using meta, never does. DYH on HtS: Has the first case on her N1. Only does vote her after NM does so. disformation on DYH: was discussed already. If you still have questions, ask while I am still around. The Shining on FF: solid progression here, nothing to complain about imo. NocturneMage on Trfel: solid progression here, nothing to complain about imo. DYH on me: "Hey look let me throw away my vote and ask ppl currently voting my scumpartner to switch to that!" LS on Fide86: Well, he posted his case on Fidei86. Still threw his vote away. disformation on FF: was already discussed. DoYouHas on Rels: "Hey I found some wifom on one of the guys trying to lynch me all game." NM on Rels: "That guy is totally 50/50. let us lynch him!" The Shining on Rels: Fair enough. So even if you don't believe DYH bussed HtS like this. Look at his other votes. lol I love how sometimes you talk to me like I'm confirmed town and try to convince me you're town and other times, you make posts like these trying to find mafia motivation behind everything I do. The point I put out regarding HtS, since you asked, was her weird way of shifting the Kush lynch blame onto me. "Shining, done." Like she knew it was going to be a mislynch and wanted to shift blame on me if she was under suspicion for it. I found it very strange, especially for someone who hadn't given me a truly solid townread or town vibes. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 15 2015 04:10 The Shining wrote: lol I love how sometimes you talk to me like I'm confirmed town and try to convince me you're town and other times, you make posts like these trying to find mafia motivation behind everything I do. The point I put out regarding HtS, since you asked, was her weird way of shifting the Kush lynch blame onto me. "Shining, done." Like she knew it was going to be a mislynch and wanted to shift blame on me if she was under suspicion for it. I found it very strange, especially for someone who hadn't given me a truly solid townread or town vibes. The HtS thing makes sense, carry on. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 15 2015 04:22 The Shining wrote: Also, the same logic for why LS can't be scum applies to DYH, vote logic-wise. Both were outlier voters. DYH made his vote on Disfo a couple of minutes before EoD, iirc. If either one is scum, they either hammer FF for town cred or vote to save him. Staying off those wagons is pretty town indicative, imo. That's what I tried to explain two pages or whatever ago. That it's possible as scum but motives don't align. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
As for him voting Rels, so did I. =/ And I've had Disfo scum since December 3rd...but again, I think everyone was thrown off by the FF vote and gave him too much cred for it, which from a scum perspective would be exactly what Disfo was aiming for. The Rels post RE: DYH was pretty WIFOMy but like NM said, he's not WIFOMing all game and it wasn't the worst point to make. It got town Rels lynched and I do feel bad about that but it's easy to get lost in WIFOM, especially as town. Disfo has been scumming/pushing DYH for idk how long but every time it actually comes down to it, his posts are more concerned with proving he's town or finding possible scum motivations between things other people do. LS, NM, myself. He's done it to all of us at least once, even though he's been scumreading DYH for ages. We only have 1 scum left. Wouldn't the town perspective be to just gun down the last scumread he has? Especially if he's been reading him scum for like, forever? | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
If for some reason disformation flips green then I'm probably making between Shining and DYH in mylo assuming we are all alive, and probably looking at their relative pushes on a town disformation because scum clearly needed what will have been a mislynch and it has appeared quite easiest to get it. But disformation will need to flip before we go this direction. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 15 2015 04:33 NocturneMage wrote: I think my vote is in a good place based on the most likely motives and evidence at hand. If for some reason disformation flips green then I'm probably making between Shining and DYH in mylo assuming we are all alive, and probably looking at their relative pushes on a town disformation because scum clearly needed what will have been a mislynch and it has appeared quite easiest to get it. But disformation will need to flip before we go this direction. LoL in a world where Disfo flips green, I don't think NM/Shining/DYH end up in Final 3. That implies an LS NK. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I don't know if that's optimal or not in general but it seems to have been done a bit lately? I've never been in mylo/lylo on TL as either alignment so... | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I'll return in time for end of cycle. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
I don't think they have a choice. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
You ppl at least going to lynch DYH after me flipping VT? | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 12 2015 01:04 Rels wrote: Hey guys I found this thing lying around in BH's bedroom! Apparently it's some kind of guide to win this game! Awesome right ? Let me transcript it for you: I hope he doesn't remark I took it ... Townie guide to winning this game Step 1: Required reading disfo's case on DYH FF's interactions with DYH are partner indicative DYH's scumread of disfo has no basis: he voted him on an "initial insctinct" which doesn't exist Part 2 of the thing above Step 2: Vote DYH Step 3: Lynch DYH Step 4: Win Also looking forward to this post game: On December 12 2015 05:27 The Shining wrote: I'm gonna have to apologize to Disfo post game, huh? I want to reread again but I'm pretty caught up. It doesn't escape me that Rels started really trying this phase after he got scummed. Trfel also entertained the idea of Rels scum during the night phase. Possible NK reasoning. I'm trying to get out of my tunnel. FF was lynched off of a 3v3 vote. He just got to 3 first. Trfel conftown, I'm town, I have to accept that Disfo is the town hammer. Looking at the votes, I'm pretty sure DYH and LS are conftown, too. With the lynch 3v3, either one could have voted Trfel and got him lynched over Fecal. And DYH voted Disfo very close to deadline, which means he was here and couldve seen that. I don't think I want to lynch DYH today. Or disfo. I'm more on the train of thought now that I'm just wrong this phase. 3v3 is very close. One of Rels/NM is scum. And I had super early suspicions of Rels that I let go. For someone who has a 15 page filter, I've forgotten he's in this game a bunch of times. I've also played scum with him once before. The activity as scum isn't beyond his scum game. And the post that Rels didn't like from DYH is actually one I really liked. Not conceding and the points on NKs and someone not being threatened by current thread sentiment. Apparently I'm the hammer vote behind these lynches. I've still got 2+ hours so I'll read and figure out which is scum. | ||
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