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On November 05 2015 02:52 Xatalos wrote:
Hmmm....
What I mean is, he didn't really comment on the whole process of HTS's team selection at all. Then he only said "I'll vote yes" during the voting, but actually voted no. Even now I'm not sure of his thought process for all of that.
It makes a lot of sense why he says he'll vote yes and then votes no from town perspective. He even explained it.
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Well to be fair, Superbia, at which point you started townreading Xatalos?
I assume you are townreading him now, right?
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On November 04 2015 09:09 Superbia wrote:
All right. Listen. You do not genuinely discuss your vote before you vote, you do so after. Mafia does not have a QT, they cannot communicate. Part of the game- and part of the play as town- is to keep mafia in the dark as to what the voting is going to be. There are voting trends that can be gained and analyzed if this is kept as it is. I was hoping people would do this.
So please, next time, do not do this. Discuss who you think is mafia during all phases. We discuss our votes after voting is revealed.
Hm... I guess it was a reaction test or something then? Well, I guess it's an acceptable reason... Actually it's kind of a townie thought since as scum making confusing posts would only confuse your team further.
Still a bit conflicted about him being the third member, but... I'm considering it.
Are you sure? I still maybe feel better about sicklucker since he's not really caring about his appearance (which should be especially important as a Spy).
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I assume he townreads me because he suggested me for the team?
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On November 05 2015 00:45 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 00:36 Rels wrote:On November 05 2015 00:27 Superbia wrote:Ugh. That answer does not satisfy me. Rels- you are here. I am currently still incredibly stuck on your alignment as being mafia, so if you're town, you're going to have to walk me through your analysis of my alignment. On November 02 2015 23:16 Rels wrote:OK this tire me so let's lay out what happened. Timeline. 1. Superbia scumreads Xata for saying "playing scum is a nightmare".On November 02 2015 08:18 Superbia wrote:
I instantly retract my townread. On November 02 2015 08:20 Superbia wrote:
So it's in no way a "nightmare" for "them". Which you should know, since you have played the game before. 2. Superbia asks Xata if he really thinks it's a nightmare, Xata kinda confirms.On November 02 2015 08:32 Superbia wrote:
Do you really think this game is a nightmare for scum? On November 02 2015 08:35 Xatalos wrote:
Yeah, I think it should be somewhat anti-scum. In the way that IRL Resistance is pretty balanced, but here it's much easier for town to communicate properly than IRL, whereas the scumteam can't communicate at all like usual in forum Mafia. 3. Superbia uses this to make Xatalos say something he didn't: that being scum isn't nightmarishOn November 02 2015 08:39 Superbia wrote:
So now that we've correctly concluded that you don't believe it is a "nightmare" for scum. Why did you open with that? ConclusionThat is the problem with Superbia's early play; twisting Xatalos' words to something he didn't mean. Now he turned that read around to townread Xatalos, and rayn is claiming it's not suspicous, which might be right. But this word-twisting stuff is scum indicative. You are so incredibly stuck on me "twisting" Xatalos' words in the beginning of the day- and that it is scum-indicative. However, you evaluate my word twisty-ness from a position in which I would have to be scum and Xat would have to be town (this is why I've been calling TMI on you), while you had no read on Xat. Moreover, that entire scum-read could've been put in the garbage as soon as I started flipping on Xatalos. This answer: + Show Spoiler +On November 03 2015 06:35 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 06:30 Superbia wrote:Rels have you even read my post explain the whole Xat thing? Every single point you're bringing up (as far as I'm reading - p16) seems to be your own weird interpretation on things and I am really disliking it. This post in particular is incredibly loaded with your own interpretation, and it really feels like you're driving an agenda here (i.e. to scum-push me): On November 02 2015 22:34 Rels wrote:On November 02 2015 20:52 Superbia wrote:On November 02 2015 20:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Superbia FYI Xatalos has not played forum Resistance. ...That makes me slightly more suspicious rofl. But whatever, I have concluded that you are likely town, and that Xat may be town too. Partially due to me trusting your read a little, and partially because of how he's mentally (i.e. logically) handling my push. Actually Xat was town in the vanilla mafia game too right? The one in which he died n3 or whatever (I've half-followed it)? And where they lynched scum on d3 only? If so that gives him some town-points this game so far. I find this super convenient. Superbia started by scumreading Xata for the nightmare thing, which is understandable. Then there was the "is it still nightmarish ?" "kinda" "now that you've said it's not nightmarish anymore ..." scumread which was super weird. And now that rayn thinks Xata is town for meta, suddenly Xata is town for Superbia too, and I have TMI on him. Let's break this apart into two pieces: 1. My secondary post on the whole nightmare-ish part is putting into words what I had already expected to have been inside Xatalos' head- that he did not believe it is a "nightmare" for scum. I have explained this. 2. Your TMI has nothing to do with my read on Xatalos whatsoever. The blatant fucking fact is that you are evaluating me for interactions with Xatalos without giving a read on Xatalos. What if he's mafia? Does that change anything for your read on me?Side note. You exclaim that me beginning to lean town on Xatalos is super convient. In what way? If I am scum, what am I achieving here? Keep in mind that you still have no read on Xatalos (right?). So in what way is me, calling a null for you, super convenient?Rels, kindly answer the bolded questions and the following: - Please explain, in detail, how what you perceived to be my push on Xatalos makes me mafia. - How was my explanation on the matter inadequate? What did not make sense? I think there was something else I wanted to ask but I forgot. Maybe I'll remember it later. I've already discarded the "you town read on Xatalos is convenient" stuff, it wasn't scum indicative. Your read on Xatalos is weird because it is not based on logic. Xatalos is saying it's kinda nightmarish to be scum => you say he said the inverse. It doesn't make sense from a town perspective. It makes sense from a scum perspective that decided to scumread Xatalos, and is twisting things to keep it. Does not give me anything. It's a cheap and easy way to look at things, and ignore my perfectly good explanation. In fact, you ignore a number of my questions- ones that I still want answered. Pushing town as mafia is something you do- I've seen it done in the previous game we were in. The fact that you are so adamant with such hollow argument irks me so much, especially knowing my own alignment. I have nothing to add to what I wrote above. You pushed Xatalos on something illogical, then you turned your read around. This is scum indicative and no amount of explanation will change that. Now that is not strong, so I'm waiting to see what you'll do. Going to call you scum for the rest of the game probably. Unless something drastically changes. The logic makes no sense. Your push on me implies: - Xat is town (likely at this point- not for you at that point in time)- I am scum (nope). - My agenda behind the push on Xat was to put scum on town-Xat as scum. Probably to divert attention. Here's where the problems are: - You have failed to address my explanation post, even though strong town players have backed up my reasoning (HtS and rayn, do you believe they are both scum?). - I flipped on Xat rather quickly, which fucks over the agenda you proposed. - You have never explained why it is scum-indicative, only in the case where Xat is strictly town, and I am strictly scum, which is back-wards reasoning. This indicates an agenda (i.e. pushing town-me). And this is the most glaring one I just thought of: - In your world, you have failed to argue that I (scum-Superbia) am now going after you (town-Rels). Even though you should 100% know your own alignment (and it should be town, right?), and it would completely support your initial assertion.
Seems so... but not completely sure about the progression
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Why are you considering sicklucker over Artanis? Is there a reason for you to believe Artanis could be scum?
Also you have to understand that even if me and you think sicklucker is town that doesn't really mean anything if the rest of the people downvote the team. It's just a wasted effort.
I am considering Artanis (or even kita -- based on what he / if he responds to me before deadline) just because Rels cannot downvote the team, and regardless of his affiliation it is a good thing assuming Artanis is town.
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On November 05 2015 03:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Also you have to understand that even if me and you think sicklucker is town that doesn't really mean anything if the rest of the people downvote the team. It's just a wasted effort.
Like this is the main reason why i think HtS played really weirdly at the end of the first nomination.
She thinks both you and kita are town but she picks the person that is least likely to get yay-voted in the team.
It makes very little sense.
Like sure i could try to nominate sicklucker/Artanis/Superbia because i think they are all town. Does that team ever get picked? No. So why even do that?
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Well anyways i am not opposed to the sicklucker pick, maybe we will get some real voting going on.
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Hmmm...
I guess I've felt slightly more comfortable with sicklucker over Artanis because it's more possible for Artanis to just "appear good" as scum (like his latest posts have seemed pretty good) rather than for sicklucker to just "indirectly" look townie like that. It's not a big difference really.
And isn't sicklucker pretty townread actually? On the other hand, there are suspicions on Superbia. Like I think Artanis showed suspicion earlier.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yes, again, technically you are absolutely correct here. I created a narrative and called you scum for it. Well to be exact i explained to HtS why your play doesn't make you town, but yes, i found out your play to be more likely to come from scum. But in my opinion i have good reasons to think the narrative i was entertaining is the right one.
Mmk I don't have much to disprove that the narrative doesn't work because I indeed did find Xatalos and Super suspicious around the time the nomination phase was finalized. Maybe playing a game with 70% Europeans makes it seem as if I'm late to the party on certain things, but on day one I think a lot of that stuff just happened to come out when I had time to look at stuff, rather than a lack of "pro-activeness" or whatever.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
sicklucker and Artanis - i disagree on the null read. I have explained why.
Artanis I am feeling more comfortable with so I'd put him into leaning town for what it is worth. I would think about including him in town nominations at the moment. I'd say the "not playing towards anything" explanation that you initially applied to Artanis doesn't apply anymore. Do you think the read holds true?
I'm less confident about the explanation towards SL at this point. Are there specific examples of the what you are saying about him that are consistent enough be confident here?
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I kinda understand the read on HtS. What gives me pause on HtS is the fact that he last-second swapped Xatalos to you. Now i don't think you are both mafia with HtS. The problem is why does he swap?
On November 02 2015 21:10 Half the Sky wrote:
Will almost certainly be leaving Kita off.
On November 02 2015 23:44 Half the Sky wrote:
and right now I'm not seeing a town Kita.
On November 03 2015 00:14 Half the Sky wrote:
Kita was more scummy than Rels
On November 03 2015 01:26 Half the Sky wrote:
there's no way I'm ever putting Kita on at this moment
On November 03 2015 01:50 Half the Sky wrote:
Going to be blunt, that's not happening, Kita is definitely not happening right now
The thing here is that she shares this opinion like seven or eight times and then suddenly swaps at the deadline. I was rather surprised at the time too. I agree the explanation for the swap wasn't very clear. However it somewhat suggest that she is more concerned with selecting the right team rather than worrying about the backlash that might come considering the earlier statements.
From a spy HTS position, I think her priority would be to get a team that passes. The suggestion that it would be easier to blame a failed mission on myself than xatalos seems less important than finding a team that passes so you can ensure that there isn't a mission 1-2-3 combo. In my opinion, HTS-Xat-rayn seemed more likely to pass at the time.
I guess it would be easier for her to buddy me if she felt that I was going to come out looking pretty townie later on in the game, that she might as well swap earlier on.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am really conflicted with your reads on Rels and Xatalos. The first thing that raises my eyebrows is the fact that you read other people based on motivation, but there is zero analysis of motivation regarding Xatalos. The read on Xatalos is actually based on something you think is scummy in what he has said. The fact is, if you read Rels' posts in this light, there is literally way way way more things that are just plain out fucking scummy.
I disagree. There was a bit of stuff that I considered on Xat's motivation. Out of the nine players in the game, I felt he was the most aggressive in ensuring his inclusion for the day one nomination. There were instances where he tried to push himself over super. I felt that his lack of any real mafia reads made it seem like he was trying to avoid conflict for the most part. I felt that the later follow up explanation on super/myself wasn't genuine.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why does he give out a townread on him based on "shit reasons" when he has scumread Superbia before? It doesn't make any sense, especially if the reasoning is -- as you claim -- made up, and he doesn't genuinely think so. I also think the read on you at the time was not scummy at all, because i felt the exact same way about you back then.
I'm saying that his read was formulated and that he stuck with it. That is a bit different from something that is "made up". His initial read that superbia was engaged and that I was ignoring things may have been true at the start, but it was no longer true and didn't apply at the point where he was making that argument.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
- Why do you think his read (reasoning/changes on it) on me throughout the game is not scummy?
I find that sudden shifts in opinion typically come from town. There are exceptions, but "player x is definitely y" and then quickly seeing something else that changes their mind is kinda townie, where mafia tend to dwell on stuff.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
- Why do you think his townread on ShoCkeyy was not scummy? It was literally based on the worst, and the most scummy post in this thread.
I shared similar sentiment that ShoCkeyy was playing so odd that it seemed as if he was suicide himself from inclusion at any point. This still is true for the most part, though the other stuff outweighs this at the moment.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:[/B
- Why is it impossible that he changes his read on HtS when he does (or rather -- more likely to come from town)? If HtS is town (as you assume) and i am town (as you assume) and i think you assume you are town anyways --> HtS has put on a team that is all town, what choise does he have? He has to call someone scum. I don't find his reasoning to be even good.
I'm not quite clear what you are asking here. Maybe you could rephrase it if possible.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
- Why do you read Rels town for his "level of engagement".
This is something that I tend to stick to during the first cycles of the game. If you are putting effort in then I'm more willing to trust you than someone who isn't. Enabling players to afk early on rarely works out. As time goes on later into the game, content becomes more important than activity. I'm also watching for things like when the activity occurs and whether or not certain players are more motivated at times that benefit themselves or times that benefit town overall.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I don't like this post, and the fact that you are not looking behind the words at all. Let's break this into pieces:
My reasoning for doing this is the following:
1) town - i believe that you three are scum (in which case it makes this the best play if all of you three agree - it just does, as the town auto-wins after regardless of what team we choose next  )
2) town - i believe there is a chance that you all three are scum, and i know you will never agree to this as either alignment
3) mafia - idk... you can insert your reasoning here because you seem to think there could be a reason, i can't give one, since i am not mafia and i would never do that when i am ALREADY on the team and (heavily) townread by 7 other players....
I explained why one was not valid earlier on I believe. The better strategy is to exclude those three players from nominations and increase your chances of success by giving you room for error. Two doesn't lead us anywhere. I guess you could argue that you wanted to see how certain players would react, but the reaction that I would expect from both sides would be "lol this is bad" so it's more of a free setup opinion for a spy to give, rather than anything of importance.
As for three, I hardly gave a scum read. Mostly a "why is a town rayn pushing a plan so terrible. Is he bold enough to think he could get away with this as a spy" read? I think it would have been a lot easier to simply ask me for opinions on Shockyy and Rels, rather than some random plan to bait it out of me, but meh.
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Your read on Xatalos (and his (and my) read on you) is the biggest issue here, since other people can't agree to anything. The fact is that there is basically no other team than me/you/Xatalos that will EVER go to the first mission based on people's reads and how they differ from other people's reads.
I don't think this is true. I'm pretty sure 5/9 town will be willing to compromise at some point or the other to get a nomination to go through. It's tough, but that's how games like this go. I think there would be very few players who reject a mission 3/4 if it meant going to 5.
[B]On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like... you have to admit there is a chance you are wrong on Xatalos. I don't find your case good. I admit i COULD be wrong on Xatalos, i am just really fucking sure of my read, more sure than anything else in this game. I also admit i am not sure if you are mafia or town, because historically i am not that good in reading you and i kinda end up thinking you are scum in any game we are in.
Sure there is. I don't think I have any reads that stretch outside the 70% confidence level at this point. Right now I find the things that Xatalos has done to point more likely to spy than not, but nothing is set in stone and it's definitely possible for things to change.
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On November 05 2015 03:22 Xatalos wrote:
Hmmm...
I guess I've felt slightly more comfortable with sicklucker over Artanis because it's more possible for Artanis to just "appear good" as scum (like his latest posts have seemed pretty good) rather than for sicklucker to just "indirectly" look townie like that. It's not a big difference really.
And isn't sicklucker pretty townread actually? On the other hand, there are suspicions on Superbia. Like I think Artanis showed suspicion earlier.
Actually i think sicklucker is a pretty guud pick. If i assume my reads are even almost correct i wanna know what Rels does tomorrow if the team of me/you/SL passes the mission and Artanis (obviously) adds himself.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 05 2015 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
She thinks both you and kita are town but she picks the person that is least likely to get yay-voted in the team.
It makes very little sense.
What would be the mafia motivation to suggest a team with a less optimal chance of success here?
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On November 05 2015 03:23 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 03:22 Xatalos wrote:
Hmmm...
I guess I've felt slightly more comfortable with sicklucker over Artanis because it's more possible for Artanis to just "appear good" as scum (like his latest posts have seemed pretty good) rather than for sicklucker to just "indirectly" look townie like that. It's not a big difference really.
And isn't sicklucker pretty townread actually? On the other hand, there are suspicions on Superbia. Like I think Artanis showed suspicion earlier. Actually i think sicklucker is a pretty guud pick. If i assume my reads are even almost correct i wanna know what Rels does tomorrow if the team of me/you/SL passes the mission and Artanis (obviously) adds himself.
Kk, well that seems good to me too. Now to look at kita's wall of text >.>
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What do you mean that I didn't have any real reads and that my explanation wasn't "genuine"? At the time, I think you just said "I guess we have different views on the word 'engaged' then" or something....
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On November 05 2015 03:27 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
She thinks both you and kita are town but she picks the person that is least likely to get yay-voted in the team.
It makes very little sense. What would be the mafia motivation to suggest a team with a less optimal chance of success here?
If HtS is mafia it comes down to this:
1) the team of HtS/Xatalos/rayn gets yay'd; me and Xatalos have "almost definitely confirmed scum", which suddenly makes everything HtS says after that a possibility of a big fuckup. She also needs to argue why Xatalos is scum.
2) the team of HtS/kita/rayn gets yay'd; She can actually more conveniently argue that kitaman is scum, because other people think kitaman is scum aswell. She don't even really need to argue, she can just +1 on the points. (the contrary to (1) is that i am not 100% arguing against her)
3) the team of HtS/kita/rayn get's nay'd (which is very very likely in the first place); she doesn't out herself, and passes the turn onto someone else -- she "looks better" to you, which increases her possibilities of getting picked later on as she is "right".
Personally i see the scum motivation in (2) and (3) over (1). If i was at HtS' position i would definitely pick either (2) or (3) over the possibility (1), since regardless of who is scum in this game at that time (and even now) the town is not working very well together.
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On November 05 2015 03:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 03:27 kitaman27 wrote:On November 05 2015 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
She thinks both you and kita are town but she picks the person that is least likely to get yay-voted in the team.
It makes very little sense. What would be the mafia motivation to suggest a team with a less optimal chance of success here? If HtS is mafia it comes down to this: 1) the team of HtS/Xatalos/rayn gets yay'd; me and Xatalos have "almost definitely confirmed scum", which suddenly makes everything HtS says after that a possibility of a big fuckup. She also needs to argue why Xatalos is scum. 2) the team of HtS/kita/rayn gets yay'd; She can actually more conveniently argue that kitaman is scum, because other people think kitaman is scum aswell. She don't even really need to argue, she can just +1 on the points. (the contrary to (1) is that i am not 100% arguing against her) 3) the team of HtS/kita/rayn get's nay'd (which is very very likely in the first place); she doesn't out herself, and passes the turn onto someone else -- she "looks better" to you, which increases her possibilities of getting picked later on as she is "right". Personally i see the scum motivation in (2) and (3) over (1). If i was at HtS' position i would definitely pick either (2) or (3) over the possibility (1), since regardless of who is scum in this game at that time (and even now) the town is not working very well together.
Yeah, I wouldn't really want to be against me/rayn as scum HTS :D
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Basically if you "out" yourself to two most talkative people in the game in mission 1 you are really likely fucked, but you can't really exclude them either, as you are also fucked if you call them scum.
In the last game I nay'd my scumbuddy Adam's (Coag later) D1 proposition (4-5 votes) as scum because i knew he would look fucking terrible after that and that everyone would consider him scum. The long term play was that i might need Coag later on, which ended up to be the correct play since Corazon was heavily scumread on later days.
It's not like "just get one scum on the first mission and it is the best outcome". That's really narrow minded to think like that, especially when the alternative makes sense from scum perspective.
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I don't have much to say to your big post kita. I just disagree.
I suggest you go read Rels' scumgames to see what he is capable of:
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/494436-season-of-the-witch-2?user=Rels]Season of the Witch II[/ur]
[url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/494873-battle-of-the-drams-mafia?user=Rels]Battle of Drams[/url]
Basically the cases he makes look "good" but they are boring. lol, i can't explain that better.
Like here Superbia and to some extent HtS are like furious and spit flames everywhere (like BM in SotW game) when getting into argument with Rels. Rels is just.. boring, and the reasoning is boring. And he makes conclusions that don't make any sense, at all.
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With boring i mean this;
In contrary, here is a game where Rels argues "in a same way" with someone (n00bking, the final day and a night before). There he tried to take different approaches, tried to find new information, and like... he was fucking arguing while noobking was just sayin "but you lied. [insert 1000 nonsensical words here].
There n00bking was boring, and mafia. Rels was arguing.
Here Rels is boring, other people are arguing with him.
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EPT
