EPTSeason of the Witch 2 - Page 102
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
At least yet. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 23 2015 13:47 Bill Murray wrote: It was my case on Damdred and my persistence of voting him that got him lynched. No it wasn't. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Okay, fine. But then he moves onto Damdred, without really expressing strong feelings on him (#1918). Also weirdly, as an aside, wasn't it TT who led the 'Inquisitor shouldn't claim a red check' faction on D2? Because he then says: "Though I'm not sure what caused people to move away from the idea that he was probbly green checked." Wouldn't that be because you argued that people shouldn't necessarily claim a red check, meaning that Rels' plan of check - no red claim - green plan never really took effect? | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 23 2015 21:12 Fidei86 wrote: Okay, fine. But then he moves onto Damdred, without really expressing strong feelings on him (#1918). Also weirdly, as an aside, wasn't it TT who led the 'Inquisitor shouldn't claim a red check' faction on D2? Because he then says: "Though I'm not sure what caused people to move away from the idea that he was probbly green checked." Wouldn't that be because you argued that people shouldn't necessarily claim a red check, meaning that Rels' plan of check - no red claim - green plan never really took effect? Now that is a really good catch. rofl. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
On September 23 2015 21:12 Fidei86 wrote: The thing I don't follow in TickTock's filter is that he makes a big post (#1712) saying why he thinks LS is mafia. It looks like he put a lot of work into it, but if you read it closely it focuses mostly on LS's claim, rather than the substance of his reads or his thought progression. In fact, TT prefaces his post with "I know that it's frustrating to get scumread, but...". And this is LS we're talking about - he fake claims as town so often it was the upgrade target for ruxx in Personality Mafia. Okay, fine. But then he moves onto Damdred, without really expressing strong feelings on him (#1918). Also weirdly, as an aside, wasn't it TT who led the 'Inquisitor shouldn't claim a red check' faction on D2? Because he then says: "Though I'm not sure what caused people to move away from the idea that he was probbly green checked." Wouldn't that be because you argued that people shouldn't necessarily claim a red check, meaning that Rels' plan of check - no red claim - green plan never really took effect? Ugh I only fake claimed once and that was Himalayas fyi lol. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
For info, I'm talking about the new personality mafia, where TT was town. Last game, TT had moments when he thought about hypothesis that didn't make sense and posted them anyway. I think it is townie 'cause is shows a lack of fear of being judged for his thoughts. The best example from last game (and the post for which I thought he was scum for 24 hours in the obs QT) is this one: On August 31 2015 09:11 Tictock wrote: Shit, well least I know I had a solid read on KSC most of the game. Ok, so based on what we now know regarding the day 2 lynch I find it super unlikely that there was any mafia on the rayn lynch. JJ effectively preserved the wagon when KSC and rels switched off rayn and has been pretty towny all game. I could probably tinfoil damdred and fidei being the last 2 mafia alive, but... Meh. Only paranoid thoughts and the notion that Damdred is totally willing to buss keep this thought alive, by and large these 2 have been contributing and helping to push the game forward. So this leaves: Obi Rit Geript Now whats odd is that both geript and rit have had greenchecks on them, but something tells me that Obi flipping will not end the game. Rels was also fairly adiment about rit being mafia even though he said he had a green check on him. I wonder why that is... Personally I feel like I want to look at Rit and geript in greater depth today. Also, what do we think... 2 mafia left or 1 ? If theres 2 left I have a hard time seeing anyone on a team with Obi. For context: Damdred has been checked 3P by a flipped cop (me), and fidei had claimed watcher with checks that matched what another townie did. So Damdred was confirmed 3P and fidei was confirmed watcher. This sentence: I could probably tinfoil damdred and fidei being the last 2 mafia alive, but... Meh. Only paranoid thoughts and the notion that Damdred is totally willing to buss keep this thought alive, by and large these 2 have been contributing and helping to push the game forward. is just him thinking with a loud voice. Now in this current game he also had several posts where he is suspicious of confirmed or unanimously townread townies: On September 15 2015 15:13 Tictock wrote: Geript how sure are you on your read on LS? Obv it's still early, I just wanna know how strongly you feel about it. And does it seems like maybe rayn didn't have a reason to scumread LS then just agreed with your read? Or maybe I just trying too hard with ~3 pages to read.... On September 16 2015 17:58 Tictock wrote: I'm leaning town on FF. His earlier assessment of Damdred made a lot of sense to me, plus the way he interacted with Vivax seemed townie to me. He's still somewhat null but I see some similarities to what I saw him so as town in both Personality and Cannons. Actually speaking of Vivax, where has he run off to? On September 16 2015 18:07 Tictock wrote: Rayn I'm not playing to please you. I post what I think. Writing that post reminded me that Vivax has been pretty absent since after he claimed. So I mentioned him. Maybe talking about him will bring him back and get him playing. Who knows. And even in his recent post he showed he was capable of re evaluating: On September 23 2015 13:00 Tictock wrote: Ok so here is where I am at raynpelikoneet Fecalfeast Bill Murray Tictock Vivax Rels Half the Sky LightningStrike Fidei86 Like FF I'm thinking the no-soup is a play for WIFOM to keep us looking at LS as well as Damdred claiming the redcheck. There is still the possibility that LS is mafia but only in the world where he and Damdred hard bus each other. So despite the issues I had with LS's claim I think we have to assume LS is town. So the last 2 mafia have to be within these players. Fecalfeast Bill Murray Tictock Rels Half the Sky Fidei86 I know I'm not mafia, and the only world where I can see Rels possibly be mafia is if LS is mafia. So that leaves me with these players to re look at. Fecalfeast Bill Murray Half the Sky Fidei86 I mean, saying "Rels might be scum if LS is scum" or putting HTS in a list of "players to re evaluate" is asking to be lynched if he's mafia. SO I think his aptitude of re evaluating constantly and questionning everybody, even universally townread people, is a town trait. NOW He could know this and be mafia playing around this. After all, he was lynched because of this attitude in the last game ... two times in a row p: the first time he had to use his ability to change the vote result, but he was lynched all the same at the next day at MYLO. Plus, I found a few things that were weird in his filter. Last game he didn't really care about getting lynched. One of his last posts before the game ended: On September 04 2015 14:43 Tictock wrote: Geript is obviously the person to listen to here, I mean he's been so right all game. Just lynch me and get this over with. Now in this game he seems more concerned about him getting lynched: On September 23 2015 08:55 Tictock wrote: Welp about to go back to work. I know rayn and a few others are were pretty convinced I am scum, so lets see those cases. On September 23 2015 14:14 Tictock wrote: And don't forget those cases on me. I wanna see em Plus, this post might be TMI on Damdred: On September 17 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote: Rels what do you make of Damdred wanting to give FF the grail? Having a hard time deciding this one. I'm not sure I really care to try and make a case for myself getting it, nor do I think I have a chance at convincing enough people. So only option for me seems to be finding someone else to take it. This also reminded me that I didn't like this post very much Plus, at some point he retracted his townread of BM, but was surprised at Vivax scumreading him 3 minutes later: On September 17 2015 22:33 Tictock wrote: This post + the fact BM afked for 10 hours after it makes me want to rethink my townlean on him Then again his rapid fire posting when he did come back is somewhat towny. Ehh prob not someone I'd lynch today. On September 17 2015 22:36 Tictock wrote: Can you explain why you scumread BM? I don't think the stuff about him ignoring rayn but calling you out, or w/e was very scummy. So wondering if you have more than that. Plus, the two questions I asked him last page. This first question he actually answered it and I didn't see it; he said he changed his read of LS because he couldn't imagine Damdred and LS together in a mafia team. Now since everybody was suspicious of Damdred, I don't know why that would apply to LS more than anyone else. On September 23 2015 16:26 Rels wrote: TT two questions. 1 - Yesterday you were so convinced LS was fakeclaiming you voted for him. What has changed here ? 2 - Yesterday you quoted a post of mine that was saying geript haunting the night he died was super weird. You reached the opposite conclusion than I did though; I thought there was no way LS could invent that, while you saw a proof LS lied. Did you realize I had a different conclusion than you ? Or not ? Talking about this: Plus, rayn's questions that he said he would answer and haven't for now: On September 22 2015 06:39 Tictock wrote: Remind me what these were tomorrow and I'll respond to them. Def dont have time atm. Plus, his weird defense of Damdred EOD2. CONCLUSION I still think TT can be town. Why ? Because of rsoultin's wise words, paraphrased here: "A player cannot easily copy his meta, even if he wants too". So if TT is scum, he did a fucking good job imitating his town meta of posting thoughts without concerns for how he's read. All the little weird things I listed above are not strong scum indicators by themselves, but the fact that there are so many means I'm not as sure as before. My read on him will evoluate depending on two things: - how he answers my concerns and rayn's concerns - the check situation. If BM is really the inquisitor and he green checked fidei, TT is probably scum by POE | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Day 1 Holy Grail votecount] + Day 1 Holy Grail votecount geript (2): raynpelikoneet, TicTock (1): raynpelikoneet (0): Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, Vivax (0): Not voting (1): TicTock + Show Spoiler [Day 1 final votecount] + Day 1 final votecount LightningStrike (2): The Shining (0): Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript Damdred (2): Bill Murray (0): + Show Spoiler [Day 2 final votecount] + Day 2 final votecount Damdred (8): LightningStrike (2): Rels (0): Bill Murray (0): Fidei86 (0): | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 24 2015 00:04 Rels wrote: The votecounts aren't super interesting, but here they are, compiled with colored flips. I colored Shining green, Damdred red and rayn green, even though they are not mechanically confirmed. + Show Spoiler [Day 1 Holy Grail votecount] + Day 1 Holy Grail votecount geript (2): raynpelikoneet, TicTock (1): raynpelikoneet (0): Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, Vivax (0): Not voting (1): TicTock + Show Spoiler [Day 1 final votecount] + Day 1 final votecount LightningStrike (2): The Shining (0): Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript Damdred (2): Bill Murray (0): + Show Spoiler [Day 2 final votecount] + Day 2 final votecount Damdred (8): LightningStrike (2): Rels (0): Bill Murray (0): Fidei86 (0): I am mechanically confirmed just as much as Vivax is. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 24 2015 00:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am mechanically confirmed just as much as Vivax is. I fucking thought that when I wrote this sentence p: you are 100% confirmed in my mind. And frankly, if you are mafia and had the balls to shoot yourself, I will lose to you gladly. p: | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 24 2015 00:09 Rels wrote: I fucking thought that when I wrote this sentence p: you are 100% confirmed in my mind. And frankly, if you are mafia and had the balls to shoot yourself, I will lose to you gladly. p: Tbh if i was mafia i would shoot myself about 100% of the games where the martyr works "normally". I would never bank on angels being on me on some random day. Especially when i could just... kill a townie. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 24 2015 00:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: Tbh if i was mafia i would shoot myself about 100% of the games where the martyr works "normally". I would never bank on angels being on me on some random day. Especially when i could just... kill a townie. What is the martyr working normally ? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
The save is obvious, as in: "The person X martyred himself and saved person Y" and mafia does not get the role of Y. rn the martyr role is just a free townclaim on D1 and best used as it. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 24 2015 00:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: The save is obvious, as in: "The person X martyred himself and saved person Y" and mafia does not get the role of Y. rn the martyr role is just a free townclaim on D1 and best used as it. TBH this seems overpowered except if scum goes for this super risky play of shooting themselves. | ||
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