EPTI have reasons, but I'm disinclined to expound upon them.
Season of the Witch 2 - Page 101
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I have reasons, but I'm disinclined to expound upon them. | ||
Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
| ||
|
LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
| ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
that was very very good for us mathematically | ||
|
Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
Which would lead me to believe that the no-soup on LS isn't as suspicious as I thought before. | ||
|
Tictock
United States6052 Posts
raynpelikoneet Fecalfeast Bill Murray Tictock Vivax Rels Half the Sky LightningStrike Fidei86 Like FF I'm thinking the no-soup is a play for WIFOM to keep us looking at LS as well as Damdred claiming the redcheck. There is still the possibility that LS is mafia but only in the world where he and Damdred hard bus each other. So despite the issues I had with LS's claim I think we have to assume LS is town. So the last 2 mafia have to be within these players. Fecalfeast Bill Murray Tictock Rels Half the Sky Fidei86 I know I'm not mafia, and the only world where I can see Rels possibly be mafia is if LS is mafia. So that leaves me with these players to re look at. Fecalfeast Bill Murray Half the Sky Fidei86 | ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
no way they would do that damdred or the shining one of them was maf 100% so it's 7 town 2 maf and we have a couple mislynches unless we get soup sniped which im not afraid of because we are not claiming our roles so much | ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
| ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
| ||
|
Tictock
United States6052 Posts
From a casual glance through filters I'm feeling like BM and HtS are pretty clearly town. There are some differences in their play from what I've seen of them as town in the past, but nothing that jumps out to me as scummy. For HtS it's tonal, shes not as vocal or as thorough as I've seen her before as town. I like most of her points though, I'm just getting some funny feels from her. BM is totally different this game than I've seen him before. He's super active and engaged compared to what I've seen before from him as town. I'm definitely going to need to reread his filter in detail because of this, but almost everything I recall reading from him has felt very towny to me. Shift in meta vs towny behavior, I'd lean on the behavior everytime. So from my list before I'd initially put Fidei and FF as my top scumspects. FF looks a little worse to me, but I've found myself agreeing with some of his posts (like the one I commented on ~hr ago). Posts like these jump out at me though. On September 18 2015 01:57 Fecalfeast wrote: it does not lynchables: damdred LS BM Dandel fuck em all On September 22 2015 06:14 Fecalfeast wrote: I am going to work I will be back in 15 or fewer minutes. I am down for killing damdy/TT/fidei or even LS fuck it kill em all He was also very late to join the lynch on damdred. I'd need to check in more detail but this seemed odd given how he pretty much stated he was just sheeping rayn. So doesn't care who we lynch but is last to vote for Damdred (who I'm fairly convinced was scum). For Fidei my main issue was his WoT opening. He started with a somewhat flippant townread on LS (basically said this is how LS plays everygame, what he's used to seeing) then concludes that there is scum pushing LS. There is also a later post where he says he" found LS's defense super unconvincing" which looks a little odd given his early townread, but given the large amount of time in between posts it's hard to tell what Fidei is thinking. So FF and Fidei would be my current bet for the last 2 scum. I'll do some more proper rereading tomorrow when I have time and flesh this all out. | ||
|
Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I wanna see em | ||
|
Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
| ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 23 2015 07:58 Vivax wrote: Rayn was targeted, I didn't save yeeeeees well played! good fucking job to the angels too | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
1 - Yesterday you were so convinced LS was fakeclaiming you voted for him. What has changed here ? On September 23 2015 08:39 Tictock wrote: Humm, Damdred is pretty much confirmed mafia right? Like had he been town you would have been shot for sure. Mafia not going for the soup kill is interesting though. Theres a few possible reasons why not but to me it seems likely that they are leaving you alone for WIFOM purposes. 2 - Yesterday you quoted a post of mine that was saying geript haunting the night he died was super weird. You reached the opposite conclusion than I did though; I thought there was no way LS could invent that, while you saw a proof LS lied. Did you realize I had a different conclusion than you ? Or not ? Talking about this: On September 22 2015 06:42 Tictock wrote: Holy shit this, I didn't even think about that. Geript wasn't dead till daypost how could he have haunted LS? | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 23 2015 13:47 Bill Murray wrote: It was my case on Damdred and my persistence of voting him that got him lynched. It is the main point why I am suspicious of you. You were so sure Damdred was mafia at the beginning of D2 that you started making association case based on scum Damdred, at the time Damdred was the check target and the inquisitor could likely claim. Now that Damdred is confirmed mafia (not mechanically I suppose, but his posts yesterday were 100% scum), it's weird that you knew Damdred was mafia at the beginning of D2. As I said yesterday, you are either mafia that knew Damdred was checked, or the inquisitor. So. If you are the inquisitor, you checked fidei. And you haven't claimed a red check, meaning fidei is town. I see only three possible worlds: BM inquisitor + fidei green checked, meaning there are two mafias in TT / LS / FF / HTS. BM + fidei mafia, if that is the case the real inquisitor will claim a red check on fidei, unless it was Shining BM + TT mafia Right now I think the second and third worlds are more likely to be true, as HTS is almost confirmed town, and FF and LS are likely town. TT, I need to do a town case comparing his play to last game to check my meta read of him. Unlikely worlds: BM inquisitor who didn't check fidei: he still haven't claim a red check, meaning there are two mafias in fidei / TT / LS / FF / HTS minus his green check tinfoil HTS scum: super unlikely There are still 3 mafias left: that would mean Shining is the exorcist (possible) and that Damdred was not mafia (super unlikely) There is only 1 mafia left: that would mean Shining was mafia (unlikely) | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
See you! | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
If you are the inquisitor and have a red check on someone, you should claim it If the claim is believable and there is no counter claim, here is what we'll do in that scenario: - we will keep our mouth shut so we don't give any infos and we will IML the red check - the last mafia cannot YOLO soup everybody as we didn't talk a lot about roles - tomorrow we will mass claim to look for the last mafia - as this situation is almost unwinnable for the last mafia, he will probably try a YOLO soup everybody and have a big chance of failing TLDR YOU SHOULD CLAIM IF YOU HAVE RED CHECK. If there is no claim, we can assume inquisitor is either dead and has a green check No meeting this afternoon so I'll be more active then. I still want to check if TT's play is as similar to last game as I think it is | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 23 2015 17:03 Fidei86 wrote: I was a bit carried away last night, but I'm presuming that Vivax as the uncc'ed martyr with no soup kill yet is pretty much confirmed, meaning that Rayn is also confirmed town. Certainly narrows the pool a fair bit. any other reads that are not obvious ? | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 23 2015 18:32 Rels wrote: TLDR YOU SHOULD CLAIM IF YOU HAVE RED CHECK. If there is no claim, we can assume inquisitor is either dead OR* has a green check | ||
| ||
