|
On September 07 2015 22:06 Breshke wrote:
So fidel do you not think the inconsistency I pointed out is a big deal or?
This is an honest question (for some reason it feels like that came off as agressive) because i feel like it is fairly damming but no one else is really talking about it.
Um, I don't think I really follow your point. Could you talk me through it?
|
Thanks.
Yes it is an inconsistency, although you are assuming that GB had the same thing in mind as you did re his "Breshke knows". You're probably right on that. The trouble I have is that both points are super dumb. GB must have known that making a claim your first post was going to draw scrutiny from town. If he is the medic, Mafia would probably ignore a vig claim in their blue hunt, or alternatively would kill townies most likely to solve the game anyway. Also, using a claim as a way of getting conversation IF YOU ARE A BLUE only serves to make you look scummier (leading town to "lynch all liars").
My view on this is that, given the set up, if GB's claim is fake then it will come out in due course anyway. Either we'll get a vigi shot, or we'll get a blue flip. Or, we'll get to Lylo-1 and someone will CC. The only reason to CC now is if there is a medic out there who thinks that the chance of GB being the RBer or GF plus the utility that gives the cop is worth trading their life for. My thinking on this now is tending towards no, although it's pretty finely balanced. If I was a weaker town player, I'd consider claiming just because that keeps stronger town alive longer.
If GB is the real medic, Mafia have to kill him at some point, or alternatively use their RB exclusively on him, meaning the cop can operate unmolested.
So, in answer to your question, yes it is super dumb, and it probably means that GB is Mafia. But game mechanics will eventually out him or exonerate him, and town would be better advised trying to find other scum. Lynching him and finding out he's medic would be super disastrous, and I don't think his flip gives us enough associative info to make it worthwhile.
|
On September 08 2015 02:00 scott31337 wrote:
I think it's shit that will sort itself out a lot more on D2 and we have two more mafia to find anyway. I think it's fake if you want the real answer.
Why do you think it's fake?
|
Rayn did you read my post where I pointed out that what BF said wasn't completely true? There are probably good reasons to scum-read me, but my read evolution on n00b and my vote switches at EOD are not good reasons, IMO.
|
On September 08 2015 07:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 07:17 Fidei86 wrote:
Rayn did you read my post where I pointed out that what BF said wasn't completely true? There are probably good reasons to scum-read me, but my read evolution on n00b and my vote switches at EOD are not good reasons, IMO. If you are town no, there arem't. so you are probably mafia.
?
|
|
|
Okay here is my read evolution on n00b:
I'm going to read back over some filters, and give some thoughts. My initial read through made me most sceptical of Moosy and n00b, especially as their play seemed very different to last time I played with them.
I'm sitting here reading this post, and I just keep asking myself "why does a town n00b make this post?". The only reason to call people's posts bad, without following with a read on the poster, is if you're trying to stop momentum on a wagon you think is wrong. Otherwise, you're just soft-scumming the poster. I would say probably half of n00b's filter up to now is his fight with rayn. And through all of that, he hasn't actually formed a read on him yet? How does that even make sense? If n00b is town, I don't get why he essentially causes the entirety of d1 to be about his fight with rayn, someone he doesn't even seem to have a scum read on ???
n00b is a scum-read for now.
GB I have thought about this overnight and I don't know if it makes sense for scum n00b to post in the way that he has. Like, the points he makes are *okay* and a lot of them against Rayn I actually made myself. People seem to be scumming him more for his tone, and I agree he has been very obnoxious. But isn't that more likely to come from town than Mafia? Why does Mafia come in and generally make as many enemies as possible?
I'm also acutely aware that it's a newbie town error just to lynch the most outspoken player d1.
So BF, hearing his name get mentioned as a possible policy lynch, enters the thread and basically gets on board with the n00b and the Cake wagons, then calls Rayn town for meta reasons.
His reasoning against n00b is not convincing. Whatever else you think of n00b (and I've said plenty), he hasn't shied away from dealing with specific issues. I've already said at length that I think there are issues with n00b's play, but I just think his overall play style makes more sense from a town perspective.
@n00bking
What the hell are you talking about? Information on a BF lynch? The dude has made like two posts, and the only people who have said anything are Scott and Cake. This is just such a bad argument, I don't even know where to begin. I was pretty sure you're town, but you keep digging yourself deeper and it's getting harder and harder to keep town reading you.
Ugh. Rayn, I'm concerned you're too tunnelled on n00b. I don't want to have to choose between voting Cake and n00b.
I'm going to park my vote on BF for now. I think he's a much better option than either of the two leading wagons. I guess I could also move onto scott - I don't have much of a read on him and his level of contribution has been pretty weak.
Right, okay. So, I have pretty serious reservations about this lynch, but I think it's probably a better lynch than n00b or Cake, and those seem to be my other options.
##Vote: GlowingBear
I'll be here towards EOD.
yeah, you guys were right, no way I build a wagon on MD now. So I have to move to NK. Ugh.
|
I didn't forget! I made the point in my third quote, which everyone seems to have missed, where I say that his play makes more sense from a town perspective. Then I don't get on his wagon. Then I jump to GB when he becomes a viable alternative, because I didn't want n00b to get lynched. Then I moved back on to him only because I had to, to save GB who was the claimed doc (and, you'll remember, you were berating me to frikkin' move in the first place).
I'll admit to not having any good reads d1, and to flailing around a bit wildly. Those are probably good reasons to scum read me. But I wish you'd stop misrepresenting my read evolution on n00b!!
|
Okay fine, yes, my third post into the game, when, by the way, all there was in the whole frikkin' thread was you shit-fighting with him. And then I changed my mind. From my perspective, I had been town reading him for a long time. Yes it wasn't all day. But I was just using short-hand for emphasis, like I said to BF.
|
rayn. Seriously? GB is not the lynch here. I've posted why before, but tl;dr is that there's no good reason to lynch into a doctor claim without a CC, and the only claim that makes sense is from a weak-town doctor who feels it's worth trading their lives for a shot at taking out the godfather or roleblocker. Otherwise, blue flips will out GB in time, and town can spend time looking for other mafia.
|
On September 08 2015 07:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The only other option is Moosy is mafia.
There is no way yamato dies over me otherwise.
NK WIFOM best WIFOM?
|
On September 08 2015 07:38 Breshke wrote:
Fidei without the claim do you want to lynch GB?
Even with the claim like it is a shit claim if he was actually a doctor I have no doubt he would claim blue there not "doctor". But no claiming the specific role have him a better chance of survival.
You have to just sack up and lynch the fake claim sometimes
I dunno - claiming "blue" is so much harder to counter-claim. If he claims blue, it's so much safer for him as mafia, because then he is only really a confirmed liar once at least one, but perhaps two of the blues flip. Now if he's mafia, he knows the setup, so he obviously doesn't claim any of the roles that aren't here. But even then, if he claims blue then neither the doctor or the cop can prove he's lying until their counter-part flips.
I just flicked back through his filter. I actually thought some of his reads were okay. He had read evolution on rayn (from scum, to scum-lean/null), his read on n00b was right and he pointed out some sharp things about scott's filter and a couple of the other less-read people. FWIW, I also agree with his early flame post on rayn - the things rayn started off saying were so over the top, it wasn't even real. I don't think GB was right to instantly scum-read rayn for them, but he can be forgiven I think, because he pulled his read back later. The biggest black mark against him is definitely his drop off in activity - particularly in the time leading up to the vote and the vote itself. That, and he seemed content to park his vote on scott rather than making a decision about the two wagons that actually had a shot of going somewhere. That is pretty scummy behaviour (yes, yes, I did the same on BF, but I wasn't indifferent about the lynch at all, whereas GB did seem that way). And if he really was sleeping, it's super convenient that he came back at exactly the right time to claim and get an alternative wagon going. And the contradiction you pointed out earlier was telling.
IDK, I'd say he's probably null for me because it all just balances out. And his weird early claim thing totally fits with the meta I've seen from him, which is to make weird fake claim plays to try and bait out mafia (he did it in Himalayas, for example). I definitely thought he was a better lynch than n00b or Cake, but I wasn't super enthusiastic about it then either.
But all of that is sort of irrelevant - he's claimed now and my view is that, mechanically, lynching into the fake check is a risk we don't have to take - the flips will reveal his alignment in due course, and it's not like we can get rid of KP. Yeah, getting the RBer or the GF would be nice, but I don't know if it's worth the trade, given that there is no miller and the RBer is unlikely to find the cop this early.
|
On September 08 2015 07:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 07:37 Fidei86 wrote:On September 08 2015 07:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The only other option is Moosy is mafia.
There is no way yamato dies over me otherwise. NK WIFOM best WIFOM? Then why do you suggest yamato dies over me? there is literally zero reason for that regardless of how good/bad my reasons are unless you think either: 1) GB is mafia 2) i am mafia so which one is it?
I thought yamato was much more towny than you. I know that when you're town, you always think that it must be BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS to everyone that you are also town. But there is no reason for mafia yamato to move his vote from n00b (confirmed town) onto GB so late in the day, in a manner that's going to force his scum-mates to make a difficult decision under pressure. His read evolution on GB was also very organic. I think he was much townier than you. And even if you call it a wash, at least he was posting thoughtful posts. You're posting some thoughtful stuff, but you're also posting a lot of hyperbole that's distracting town and that's useful for mafia.
I agree, your alignment probably isn't the same as GBs. But I've seen too many bus attempts to rely solely on that to read someone.
|
o.O
Okay, well that makes d2 a little more ... interesting. Easier too!
It's not really a hard decision for me here. I see no reason for a scum rayn to CC. We're not likely to lynch him this turn, and it's waaaaaay too early for him to be using the CC to try and save his mafia allies. It's just way to sub-optimal.
Also, rayn's rage, while kind of ... you know ... cluttering ... makes sense from what I read of his meta.
His switch off GB right at the end is a little bit suspect - if he is actually the cop then why move your vote? But maybe he figured that if he stayed on it then he would out himself as the cop? IDK. I think if I'm in his position then I probably just stay on GB. But, it's not like this game has been played optimally so far.
It's gotta be GB boys.
##Vote: Glowing Bear
|
I want to clarify my first post because it's not exactly good writing.
What I meant was that, before rayn's CC, there's no way town lynch him. Zero. And it's also totally unclear who town *would* have lynched. The only reason mafia CC's the actual doctor is if he or his scum partners are in danger. Why trade 1 for 1, when you can just keep RBing GB and kill other townies?
If rayn is mafia, that CC is so hilariously sub-optimal that I refuse to believe he makes it. So it has to be GB.
|
On September 08 2015 08:11 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 08:09 Fidei86 wrote:
o.O
Okay, well that makes d2 a little more ... interesting. Easier too!
It's not really a hard decision for me here. I see no reason for a scum rayn to CC. We're not likely to lynch him this turn, and it's waaaaaay too early for him to be using the CC to try and save his mafia allies. It's just way to sub-optimal.
Also, rayn's rage, while kind of ... you know ... cluttering ... makes sense from what I read of his meta.
His switch off GB right at the end is a little bit suspect - if he is actually the cop then why move your vote? But maybe he figured that if he stayed on it then he would out himself as the cop? IDK. I think if I'm in his position then I probably just stay on GB. But, it's not like this game has been played optimally so far.
It's gotta be GB boys.
##Vote: Glowing Bear Dude, which game are you playing? Rayn claimed doctor
I meant doctor. Actually made that mistake in my last post before changing it. In my defence ... uh ... it's late in the UK and I meant to go to bed a while ago?
|
On September 08 2015 08:12 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 08:09 Fidei86 wrote:
o.O
Okay, well that makes d2 a little more ... interesting. Easier too!
It's not really a hard decision for me here. I see no reason for a scum rayn to CC. We're not likely to lynch him this turn, and it's waaaaaay too early for him to be using the CC to try and save his mafia allies. It's just way to sub-optimal.
Also, rayn's rage, while kind of ... you know ... cluttering ... makes sense from what I read of his meta.
His switch off GB right at the end is a little bit suspect - if he is actually the cop then why move your vote? But maybe he figured that if he stayed on it then he would out himself as the cop? IDK. I think if I'm in his position then I probably just stay on GB. But, it's not like this game has been played optimally so far.
It's gotta be GB boys.
##Vote: Glowing Bear Lolwut?
Apart from the doc/cop confusion, what part of this don't you understand?
|
On September 08 2015 08:13 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 08:11 CopCake wrote:On September 08 2015 08:09 Fidei86 wrote:
o.O
Okay, well that makes d2 a little more ... interesting. Easier too!
It's not really a hard decision for me here. I see no reason for a scum rayn to CC. We're not likely to lynch him this turn, and it's waaaaaay too early for him to be using the CC to try and save his mafia allies. It's just way to sub-optimal.
Also, rayn's rage, while kind of ... you know ... cluttering ... makes sense from what I read of his meta.
His switch off GB right at the end is a little bit suspect - if he is actually the cop then why move your vote? But maybe he figured that if he stayed on it then he would out himself as the cop? IDK. I think if I'm in his position then I probably just stay on GB. But, it's not like this game has been played optimally so far.
It's gotta be GB boys.
##Vote: Glowing Bear Dude, which game are you playing? Rayn claimed doctor His claim is obviously fake. It's clearly out of rage, wether it's forced or not.
Why would he be raging if he was mafia? If rayn *is* mafia, before the CC he's at home with his slippers on laughing over some whisky about how dumb town are. He's got it made. The doctor has claimed N1, he's universally town-read and he can probably choose his lynch for today (looks like a push on me would have got a lot of traction, for example). But instead he CCs?
No. You're mafia.
|
On September 08 2015 08:17 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 08:16 Fidei86 wrote:On September 08 2015 08:13 GlowingBear wrote:On September 08 2015 08:11 CopCake wrote:On September 08 2015 08:09 Fidei86 wrote:
o.O
Okay, well that makes d2 a little more ... interesting. Easier too!
It's not really a hard decision for me here. I see no reason for a scum rayn to CC. We're not likely to lynch him this turn, and it's waaaaaay too early for him to be using the CC to try and save his mafia allies. It's just way to sub-optimal.
Also, rayn's rage, while kind of ... you know ... cluttering ... makes sense from what I read of his meta.
His switch off GB right at the end is a little bit suspect - if he is actually the cop then why move your vote? But maybe he figured that if he stayed on it then he would out himself as the cop? IDK. I think if I'm in his position then I probably just stay on GB. But, it's not like this game has been played optimally so far.
It's gotta be GB boys.
##Vote: Glowing Bear Dude, which game are you playing? Rayn claimed doctor His claim is obviously fake. It's clearly out of rage, wether it's forced or not. Why would he be raging if he was mafia? If rayn *is* mafia, before the CC he's at home with his slippers on laughing over some whisky about how dumb town are. He's got it made. The doctor has claimed N1, he's universally town-read and he can probably choose his lynch for today (looks like a push on me would have got a lot of traction, for example). But instead he CCs? No. You're mafia. i honestly think you're mafia.
Okay, please explain to me in small words with few syllables exactly what part of that post you don't like/understand?
|
On September 08 2015 08:17 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 08:14 Fidei86 wrote:On September 08 2015 08:12 GlowingBear wrote:On September 08 2015 08:09 Fidei86 wrote:
o.O
Okay, well that makes d2 a little more ... interesting. Easier too!
It's not really a hard decision for me here. I see no reason for a scum rayn to CC. We're not likely to lynch him this turn, and it's waaaaaay too early for him to be using the CC to try and save his mafia allies. It's just way to sub-optimal.
Also, rayn's rage, while kind of ... you know ... cluttering ... makes sense from what I read of his meta.
His switch off GB right at the end is a little bit suspect - if he is actually the cop then why move your vote? But maybe he figured that if he stayed on it then he would out himself as the cop? IDK. I think if I'm in his position then I probably just stay on GB. But, it's not like this game has been played optimally so far.
It's gotta be GB boys.
##Vote: Glowing Bear Lolwut? Apart from the doc/cop confusion, what part of this don't you understand? I don't understand how you can not identify that his claim is fake. He voted me, then Moosy doosy, then he said I am the most anti town player. Use your mind. If he was really the doc, would he move out of my lynch on day1? Your sheep here is extremely bad and opportunistic
IDK. That's the only reason I have for even doubting his CC for a second. But it's nowhere near enough to go against the fact that his CC makes absolutely no sense from a mafia perspective whatsoever, and although rayn is raging, he's not an idiot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
