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[M][T] The New Personality Mafia - Page 64

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ObiWanShinobi
Profile Joined April 2014
United States8089 Posts
August 21 2015 14:24 GMT
#1261
I can lynch Damdred, Chez, and Rels.
Aside from that I'm out of ideas.
Retired.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
August 21 2015 14:47 GMT
#1262
Anyone opposed to this?

##Shoot Yamato77
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
August 21 2015 14:48 GMT
#1263
Lol I'm a survivor just have a cop check me. And lynching me hurts town more than helps it anyway.

Anyway geript that's a straw man argument at best I had both people on my scum list. Saying I would be happier to stay on chez when I never voted him isn't correct. Since obviously I voted for someone I thought was scum.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
August 21 2015 14:49 GMT
#1264
As a note, I will only be able to post via phone from like ~45 minutes after this post, so dont expect any walls of texts from me near EoN.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31495 Posts
August 21 2015 15:32 GMT
#1265
Don't waste a cop check on damdred.
There a whole bunch of better targets.
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
August 21 2015 15:34 GMT
#1266
First,

It should be obvious who needs to be checked because of D1 shenanies (including, but not limited to, the two people who subbed in [personally highly suspicious of VA/rayn but eh], one of the surviving lynch bandwagons [tubesock et al], damdred).
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
August 21 2015 15:35 GMT
#1267
On August 22 2015 00:32 WaveofShadow wrote:
Don't waste a cop check on damdred.
There a whole bunch of better targets.

Well...hrm.

Maybe.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 21 2015 15:36 GMT
#1268
On August 21 2015 23:14 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 21 2015 22:58 geript wrote:
On August 21 2015 18:05 Rels wrote:
@geript why Breshke isn't in your lurker list when Chez is ?

Because I'm pretty sure he's town.

Yamato is maybe town for consolidating on a good lynch. In the least a better lynch. Like you guys can complain about those 4 being off limits, but it'd be exceptionally odd if there were more than 1 mafia on CheZinU. Statistically they're low probability lynches ever worse than RNG and significantly worse than RNG excluding the 5 on chez.

I'm serious about Damdred being mafia. If he were 3P he'd be far more interested in staying on Chez. Not because chez is 100% mafia, but because as a 3P (survivor or not) he'd be more interested in me avoiding looking at him seriously.
I do think chez has a higher than normal chance to flip scum though. His play reminds me a bunch of his play in Nuclear where he was mafia with Ace and Dandelion +2. Around enough to say stuff but not really do anything specific. Plus, his approach towards being lynched was nothing like in TSM. He says similar sounding things, but when you look at TSM he had a long series of posts which showed he was sort of lost. He's just waiting to be lynched and trying to delay it. That's the difference. Town chez tries to do stuff and a lynch ends up his way because of how he plays. As mafia, he just tries to wait out the lynch and does nothing.

Doesn't it depend which way Chez flips (if he does)? I mean, if he's town as well, it doesn't really matter which way we went, surely?

If Chez is town, then there's a slight possibility of 2 mafia on him, but that would be a very odd case. It would essentially mean there's 5 mafia (which imo is way too many for a 20 person setup) or that there was only 1 mafia on ruxxar and 1 mafia on the random votes. Those two things being true would be really really odd in general.

Also, tbh I'm having a hard time believing ritoky's "I must random vote each day" shit. Like his role would have to be pretty goddamn powerful in order to lose the ability to control his own vote. While i don't have a vast opinion for onegu setups, like that shit would be super odd. I think ritoky has a decent shot for being 3p and just making shit up.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 21 2015 15:37 GMT
#1269
On August 21 2015 23:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Anyone opposed to this?

##Shoot Yamato77

Yes. Damdred and Chezinu are significantly better shots. Chezinu gives us information whether it was town-town or town-mafia wagons (3p essentially being town-town). Yamato is a lower probability shot than a number of others.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
August 21 2015 15:38 GMT
#1270
On August 22 2015 00:37 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 21 2015 23:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Anyone opposed to this?

##Shoot Yamato77

Yes. Damdred and Chezinu are significantly better shots. Chezinu gives us information whether it was town-town or town-mafia wagons (3p essentially being town-town). Yamato is a lower probability shot than a number of others.

Shush you.

I do what I want. And I need to fulfill my challenge of shooting yamato.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
August 21 2015 15:51 GMT
#1271
Mod Note:

All actions must be sent in to both mods before the 1-hour silent resolution period. Failure to meet the deadline will result in no action. Failure to notify both mods may result in no action.

Carry on.
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
August 21 2015 15:59 GMT
#1272
Fuck you if you kill me Tolkien

Someone roleblock this idiot to save town.
Writer@WriterYamato
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
August 21 2015 16:10 GMT
#1273
On August 22 2015 00:37 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 21 2015 23:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Anyone opposed to this?

##Shoot Yamato77

Yes. Damdred and Chezinu are significantly better shots. Chezinu gives us information whether it was town-town or town-mafia wagons (3p essentially being town-town). Yamato is a lower probability shot than a number of others.

This. I haven't seen anything convincing to say that Chezinu's last-minute spurt of activity was alignment indicative, and before that his filter was trash-tier. I've also no confidence whatsoever that he will actually look to contribute to the game.

Also, if he is mafia, then we confirm a bunch of town.

From a totally selfish and non-game-winning perspective I'd rather you shoot Kelsier, whose only purpose seems to genuinely hinder town and generally be rude to people. But in terms of shooting lurkers, I think Chez is the better choice.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
August 21 2015 16:24 GMT
#1274
On August 22 2015 00:59 yamato77 wrote:
Fuck you if you kill me Tolkien

Someone roleblock this idiot to save town.

Yams pls.

You challenged me. Ergo i must comply.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
August 21 2015 16:30 GMT
#1275
I will do a longer read re-cap later, but I want to write a brief case on why I think HTS is town.

It essentially boils down to three points:

1. She was the first person to make a substantive argument against the ritoky/Tube/TickTock wagon on me. A couple of other people had made throwaway comments about me, but that was it. And everyone knows (or will know now I'm telling you) that HTS is probably the person in this game I have had the MOST interaction with. Not only do we play DOTA together, but we were town together in Newbie XII and she moderated Himalayas. It would have been VERY easy for her to come up with some sort of weasel argument as to why I was scum in this game. Given her connections with me, I think it would have been very convincing to a lot of people. Yes, she could have been pocketing me, or town reading me for the cred in case the wagon was successful, but I find that less likely than the alternative - that she is town.

2. Having exchanged messages with her and played Dota with her, I'm not sure that she's the kind of person who would claim having serious back pain as a reason for not being around. I also don't see why mafia HTS would mix in the excuses with her genuine attempts at analysis. Why not just be like "oh my back is too sore, I can't play, I'm on Ruxx and I think that's right". That makes more sense to me.

3. At the lynch she was all over the shop. I think she moved her vote perhaps four times? I know she's an advanced mafia player, but that seems like a stretch to me, especially as she ended up on the ruxxar wagon. This reason may well fall apart once we learn the alignments of the other two wagons (other than me). However, the sense of frustration that she was giving (for example, calling out Ruxx for not being around) fits in perfectly with her erratic voting.

KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 21 2015 16:59 GMT
#1276
On August 22 2015 01:10 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 22 2015 00:37 geript wrote:
On August 21 2015 23:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Anyone opposed to this?

##Shoot Yamato77

Yes. Damdred and Chezinu are significantly better shots. Chezinu gives us information whether it was town-town or town-mafia wagons (3p essentially being town-town). Yamato is a lower probability shot than a number of others.

This. I haven't seen anything convincing to say that Chezinu's last-minute spurt of activity was alignment indicative, and before that his filter was trash-tier. I've also no confidence whatsoever that he will actually look to contribute to the game.

Also, if he is mafia, then we confirm a bunch of town.

From a totally selfish and non-game-winning perspective I'd rather you shoot Kelsier, whose only purpose seems to genuinely hinder town and generally be rude to people. But in terms of shooting lurkers, I think Chez is the better choice.


[image loading]
Zerg for Life
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
August 21 2015 17:12 GMT
#1277
On August 22 2015 00:51 rsoultin wrote:
Mod Note:

All actions must be sent in to both mods before the 1-hour silent resolution period. Failure to meet the deadline will result in no action. Failure to notify both mods may result in no action.

Carry on.



Correction will result in no action if not sent to both hosts.
Try TL Mafia!!!
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 21 2015 17:34 GMT
#1278
On August 20 2015 08:20 rsoultin wrote:
Day 1 Votecount

ruXxar (6): Breshke, Half the Sky, Rels, ObiWanShinobi, WaveofShadow, Lord Tolkien
Fidei86 (2): ritoky, Tubesock, The Shining
ritoky (1): geript, Chezinu
Damdred (1): Fecalfeast, Fecalfeast, ruXxar, Chezinu
Fecalfeast (1): Damdred
yamato77 (1): Fecalfeast
Tubesock (1): The Shining

Not Voting (8): Fidei86, yamato77, ruXxar, JudgeJudy, VayneAuthority, Tictock, Beneather, KelsierSC

Currently, ruxxar is set to be lynched with 6 votes in . Please do not forget to vote. You may vote for yourself, and a vote of "no lynch" is allowed.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/492852-the-new-personality-voting-thread

Please vote in the voting thread if you want your vote to be counted.

On August 21 2015 06:54 rsoultin wrote:
Day 1 Votecount

Chezinu (5): geript, JudgeJudy, ObiWanShinobi, WaveofShadow, Lord Tolkien, Tubesock, Fidei86, yamato77
ruXxar (5): Breshke, Half the Sky, Rels, ObiWanShinobi, WaveofShadow, Lord Tolkien, ObiWanShinobi, Lord Tolkien, Damdred, Half the Sky
Tubesock (4): The Shining, Rels, Chezinu, WaveofShadow, Lord Tolkien
Fidei86 (2): ritoky, Tubesock, The Shining, Tictock, Rels
Damdred (2): Fecalfeast, Fecalfeast, ruXxar, Chezinu, Fecalfeast, KelsierSC
ObiWanShinobi (1): ruXxar

Not Voting (2): VayneAuthority, Beneather

Currently, Chezinu is set to be lynched with 5 votes in . Please do not forget to vote. You may vote for yourself, and a vote of "no lynch" is allowed.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/492852-the-new-personality-voting-thread

Please vote in the voting thread if you want your vote to be counted.

On August 21 2015 07:08 rsoultin wrote:
FINAL Day 1 Votecount

ruXxar (7): Breshke, ObiWanShinobi, Lord Tolkien, Damdred, Half the Sky, Chezinu, Rels
Chezinu (5): geript, JudgeJudy, Tubesock, Fidei86, yamato77
Tubesock (2): The Shining, WaveofShadow
Fidei86 (2): ritoky, Tictock
ObiWanShinobi (1): ruXxar
WaveofShadow (1): Fecalfeast
Half the Sky (1): KelsierSC

Not Voting (2): VayneAuthority, Beneather

Ruxxar has been lynched with 7 votes.

So a few interesting things from the voting patterns on D1.
The initial Ruxxar push was comprised of: Breshke, HtS, Rels, OWS, Wave and LT. When you look at where the votes moved, however, HTS, Rels and Wave ended up moving over to Tubesock before switching back. Whereas LT moved to Chez before moving back. Unfortunately, I dont' think this says anything about LT's alignment. I kinda think Wave is town; if he's not I'm just going to policy lynch him from now on whenever I think he's town. But the series of switches makes me think there's at most 1 mafia between Rels and HTS. The voting together early on, switching together and ending together makes it highly unlikely that both are mafia. So if one of those two flips mafia, the other should be considered confirmed town period. Of those two, I think Rels is pretty obviously mafia for a few reasons.
1.
On August 19 2015 18:30 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 19 2015 18:26 ritoky wrote:
While awoken by a screaming baby at 2:30 am, I felt the compulsion to refresh everyone on what they should be doing right now. There is nothing in the thread more compelling than this, anyone not voting for fidei should explain why who they are voting for has a greater than 30% chance of being mafia; and why fidei isn't mafia when clearly RNG has shown such.

On August 19 2015 10:18 ritoky wrote:
We should lynch Fidei

After reviewing the game, I have arrived at the same place. Fidei is the best candidate for lynch both objectively and subjectively.

The Objective Case:

RNG has selected fidei, he is mafia. If you need an explanation of how he was selected please reference my filter. Outside of that RNG is PARTICULARLY suited for this game. This is a closed setup, and historically in closed setups there is an incredibly strong likelihood that there are more anti-town players than are normally in an open setup. So with that alone our probability of hitting mafia from RNG has already increased by a significant margin. However, there is more. We are playing a game in which people are attempting to act like other people and mask their own play as someone else's. This means that day 1 reads and particularly day 1 meta reads have a diminished rate of accuracy. Meaning RNG is the optimal line of play. A situation with increased odds of hitting mafia and diminished validity of meta reads clearly points to RNG being the objective best line of play.

The Subjective Case:

Outside of RNG declaring fidei mafia, he is actually mafia. Consider his posting thus far:

On August 19 2015 08:33 Fidei86 wrote:
Ritoky, I can't get a read on you and usually we soul read each other. I think that basically means you're confirmed mafia, because if I can't read you then it means you're mafia, and usually we can tell each other's read a scarily uncanny amount of the time. Also, pushing scum doesn't make me mafia, it makes me town. Come on people.

[serious]This game started while I was out with friends, and am currently quite toasty. Will read tomorrow and revert.[/serious]


There are 3 aspects to this post that I would like to highlight:

1) The most classic mafia play ever: "Notice me senpai -> excuse about activity". His final sentence has no point other than to say hi I am here and fade away.

2) He is drunk or at least partially. This is important because drunk people are more prone to letting slip things or not being careful with their wording. Will be revisited later.

3) His immediate entrance response into the thread is to seek out me and essentially claim a personality to me in a very half-assed manner. First and foremost there is not point to this because he knows who I am and once RNG has declared him mafia, appeals to emotion are pointless only hard logic can deter me. Secondly, it may be coincidence but singling out the only person calling him mafia and appealing to them directly reads as an over-response to pressure. And finally the half-assed imitation. This will require some explanation.

I think people who are committing heavily to trying to act the part of the player they got rolled into and are sticking to it for a decent portion of time are very likely to be town. I feel that it is a risky play to play in a manner unlike yourself and in one that could potentially draw lynch attention to you for not playing "serious". Mafia are averse to both risk and lynch pressure on day 1, and thus would be less apt to fully commit to acting the part of someone else. I do not necessarily read legitimate frustration with the game type or completely ignoring who you rolled as scum though, I don't think the converse works. However, the half-ass attempts read as scum to me because it seems as if it is a mere "LOL"/attention grab for a few moments for them or a tool to further their agenda. This is the area fidei falls into in my mind.

Continuing on, and credit to Tubesock on the find here:

On August 19 2015 08:51 Fidei86 wrote:
The person who has Chezinu should be pretty obvious, and they haven't revealed themselves yet.


On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote:
The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action.


On August 19 2015 09:09 Tubesock wrote:
On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote:
The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action.


Then what was the purpose of your Chezinu is obvious and no one's outed yet post?

Seems to many in the thread that Damdred is obviously Chezinu...


This goes hand in hand with point #2 from above, that fidei is drunk. He made an obvious error that speaks for itself. I can elaborate further, but I feel these consecutive quotes are very self explanatory. Not only did tubesock find it important but so did others:

On August 19 2015 09:10 KelsierSC wrote:
On August 19 2015 09:09 Tubesock wrote:
On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote:
The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action.


Then what was the purpose of your Chezinu is obvious and no one's outed yet post?

Seems to many in the thread that Damdred is obviously Chezinu...


super important question


On August 19 2015 09:12 ruXxar wrote:
On August 19 2015 09:09 Tubesock wrote:
On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote:
The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action.


Then what was the purpose of your Chezinu is obvious and no one's outed yet post?

Seems to many in the thread that Damdred is obviously Chezinu...


^


And what was fidei's response to this important question?

On August 19 2015 09:18 Fidei86 wrote:
Assuming at some point that that will stop and this will revert to a regular mafia game?


Ignoring it and complaining. I hate to break it to you, but this is a regular mafia game already, and this is a real accusation; and you really are mafia.

Fidei is objectively and subjectively the best lynch in the game, anyone not voting for him is taking a sub-optimal line of play and is bad.


Back to bed. The truth is like a warm glass of milk.

RNG part is stupid. You RNG formula is not public.

The other part is good though. ruxxar asking tons of questions and doing nothing is scummier I think. Would be happy with the both of them.

Rels has played with Ruxxar before in a student game. He was able to get a decent townread on him. Part of the reasoning for said town read was Rels was asking "good" questions and lots of them. This post by rels seems exceptionally off of how Rels has previously red ruxxar.
2. New mafia tend to ask more questions to appear active. When you look at Rel's newbie game, he was reasonably active and aggressive. What you see in this game is far more commenting on the game and being an asshole. There's not pressuring anyone. There's not flat out giving reads and posting thoughts.
3. How he's posting is drastically different. Not only is his activity significantly lower ( barely 3 pages as compared to most of 5). His posts in general are significantly shorter. He's not including a quote in almost every post he makes. How he's playing is drastically different.
4. Rayn said so. Rayn's a good player and can recognize scum quite well. Usually when he and I agree on someone, they tend to be mafia.

So if there's a vigilante, Rels should the the shot far and away.
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31495 Posts
August 21 2015 17:37 GMT
#1279
I stayed on Tubesock.
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31495 Posts
August 21 2015 17:40 GMT
#1280
I do support you being so afraid of me you have to policy lynch me though lol

I still think HtS and Rels are town though
Reasoning on Rels originally was
On August 20 2015 20:45 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 20 2015 17:39 Rels wrote:
fidei + tubesock scumteam
only meaningful posts from tubesock comes from discussion with fidei
tubesocks does nothing except naming some townreads and defending from fidei, goes to sleep
then fidei townreads him

Might be wrong but love his thinking.
Town pile
Tube sock comes off worse looking than fidei imo

Genuine on the spot analysis looked really towny here during that argument.

I don't agree that Rels should be the shot---it should be someone who is actually not playing/difficult to figure out otherwise.
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
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