Newbie Student Mafia VII

These are the first two noteworthy posts that I found. To me, it seems that prplhz and Half the Sky were the first two players to start pushing the game forward. This makes them seem more towny. In particular, prplhz started pushing the game forward almost immediately.

However, I should share my meta point against Half the Sky here. Her tone is extremely confident and jovial. When she is town, her tone often seems to focus on working with others and playing alongside others. However, in her first mafia game (Newbie Mafia LX), she opened extremely confidently, referencing her own reads and desire to scumhunt. It's mostly an issue of confidence: as town, she tries to solve the game while constantly checking her work with that of others, while as scum she seems more willing to be completely independent and forceful. Still, this didn't line up with her opening in The Void Mafia (she was scum). I still feel that it is evidence against her, even if slight. It mostly depends on how she follows this up.

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This progression looks very good from Half the Sky. The first quote looks quite bad to me, she seems to be trying to make Bourneq look bad. However, four minutes later she seemed clearly willing to help Bourneq adjust to TL Mafia (as she should be, and as is expected). Therefore, I can only conclude that the first quote had the same intention, of trying to probe for actual information, as well as being willing to work with a newer player. At this point, Half the Sky is a town lean.

Prplhz gets a town lean as well for making an opening to start the discussion and then following through by voting someone who responds (in his eyes) in a scummy way. This isn't something that I expect from prplhz, or most mafia players, for that matter. Mafia doesn't really have incentive to immediately start pushing the thread forward.

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TheBloodyDwarf initially seems very inconsistent. This one's a bit complicated.I played Starcraft 2 arcade mafia once. And that was enough to know that it is a completely different game from this. Knowledge and skills from one game do not transfer to the other in any way whatsoever. The best thing for TheBloodyDwarf to do for TL Mafia is to learn to play from the ground up, because SC2 arcade mafia is simply a different game.

TheBloodyDwarf seems to be inconsistent about how he portrays himself. He often points to his past experience with SC2 arcade mafia as excuses for his actions (I shouldn't need to provide quotes for this), such as the above quote and the discussion he has with prplhz about the mechanics of roles in SC2 arcade mafia. The inconsistency is that he keeps coming back to the SC2 arcade mafia experience, instead of adapting to a new game.

This quote shows that TheBloodyDwarf realizes that TL Mafia and SC2 Mafia are different games. How does he act on this knowledge?
First, he says that he read the rules. But he only later realized how the lynch works (presumably after reading the vote count), and still didn't realize that you aren't supposed to edit posts. If he did actually read the rules, he clearly didn't read them very carefully at all. And he ought to recognize that this works differently from SC2 mafia, and read the rules carefully. This doesn't make sense from a town perspective.
This statement is obviously anti-town. It doesn't make TheBloodyDwarf scum (and by itself isn't alignment indicative), but keep it in mind.So, basically, TheBloodyDwarf intends to do nothing until there is information with which to scum hunt. However, he also dissuades others from analyzing the game. This might be somewhat valid in a role-heavy environment like SC2 mafia, however, by this point if The BloodyDwarf hasn't read the rules and doesn't realize that TL Mafia and SC2 mafia are different games, he deserves to be lynched. I can't really scumread him for saying that he can't scumhunt at this point of the game, but telling other people to stop analyzing "old" information (two hours old) is really bad.

However, at this point, his play is almost falling under the "too scummy to be scum" category. While not helping town, his play doesn't push a mafia agenda that heavily (there was no reasonable way for him to expect Soren333 to actually stop playing the game because of his request). While objectively bad, his play is consistent, and I'm not very inclined to scumread him seriously any more.This quote summarizes it perfectly. He's waiting for people to provide evidence, while ignoring evidence that people do provide, and he's read the rules enough to know that the night phase won't provide sufficient evidence to make up for analysis. But he now clearly realizes this, so if he is town, his play will step up from here. Unfortunately, he didn't come back through page 20.

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Prplhz again sees something suspicious (plotsplot's alphabetical vote) and focuses on it. This gives me more reason to townread him.

Breshke looks good. This is a good comment and good analysis of prplhz's early play. However, I don't really like his analysis of TheBloodyCobbler (though that is partly due to the mechanics of votes in SC2 mafia).

I suppose I have to retract my earlier townread of Breshke. He made a good townread on someone, and is defending them. However, his push on TheBloodyCobbler isn't very good, and he doesn't seem terribly interested in investigating any of the other people yet. Interested to see how he goes forward.

His decision that Ace1312's entrance timing isn't alignment indicative looks good for him. But he needs to find another suspicious thing to push, and quickly, or he could be scum.

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This almost seems too paranoid to be scum...This is actually a good point, though. Unfortunately, it isn't enough to lynch Bourneq yet, seeing as he is a new player.
I'm not sure that I like this read. To me, Onegu's play has a bunch of good things, and a bunch of bad things (which Half the Sky doesn't mention at all). Furthermore, Half the Sky is saying that she liked an argument that Onegu made that is proven to be completely incorrect. This read feels incomplete, and her followup isn't much better.

Then Half the Sky scumreads Bourneq and TheBloodyDwarf. While these players haven't been acting towny, there are good reasons to not scumread them at this time. And Half the Sky also scumreads prplhz (!), which seems very strange to me.
She doesn't think that prplhz is scum after his first few posts. Before this, she said that prplhz's initial statement (could be scum, could be town) doesn't make sense from either perspective.And then this? I'm not sold.

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Oh my.......... Maybe now I know why plotsplot was lynched.

Breshke reconsiders his TheBloodyDwarf read before anyone else. He's actually looking quite towny right now.

And no, Half the Sky doesn't look more towny as scum...

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I know rsoultin won't like this, but she's actually looking suspicious. She comes in without providing any reads or thoughts at all, then continually commenting on something that is pointless, and then complaining that no one is talking to her. There's plenty to talk about, I've come up with a whole lot already. I understand it if rsoultin is still reading and analyzing, but her complaining about the thread activity while doing nothing herself is suspicious.

Tubesock is a solid null. He made a few okay reads, but he hasn't done anything impressive yet.

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I believe that leaves me here.

Town
Breshke
prplhz

Null
Half the Sky
Bourneq
Tubesock
TheBloodyDwarf

Scum Lean
rsoultin

It is possible that I am overestimating the amount that prplhz has done. To me, it feels like through page 20, he did the most work out of everyone. However, I note that as of the time I joined the game, he had the longest filter, which supports this.

Rsoultin still strikes me as surprisingly useless. I don't like this at all. Rsoultin has also missed some jokes/sarcasm, something I never expect from her and don't really see (she is a linguist, after all). And she misinterpreted one of Ace1312's posts, despite his intent being clear.If you're scumreading Ace1312 for this, then you probably need his scumhunting 101 lesson.
This makes no sense at all.... In this very post, plotspot is treating his vote carefully and weighing his options. This simply isn't that alignment indicative. But rsoultin agreed with it. Ugh.
Rsoultin, what have you been doing... Breshke is a good townread here. I'm starting to wonder if rsoultin is analyzing the game at all. I have tons of small points for why rsoultin is scum, so I'll stop listing them now, and wait for her to start making bigger reads.

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I am truly impressed by how much TheBloodyDwarf misunderstands the rules, after supposedly reading them multiple times. He seems so defensive as well (page 23), but I suppose it's warranted, given the current votes on him. At least he acknowledges that he needs to analyze what people say, so I look forward to that.

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Bourneq's re-entry to the thread seems lackluster. He continues to only provide reads when prompted to do so, and here:He seems to go out of his way to not upset prplhz. This is hard to see from a town perspective, to go back later and tell prplhz what he needs to do to get the scumread removed.
I don't really like this post at all. Breshke didn't really defend prplhz at all (I suppose you could stretch his post to call it a defense, but it isn't really). He doesn't really say anything about Breshke's play, but scumreads him anyway. A bit suspicious.

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This is a good point, I brought it up in my last post. Rsoultin is starting to look better for this.
I actually like this post. I know that he mostly scumreads for inactivity, but this is significantly better than the play that he's showed up to this point. And his reasoning generally makes sense, and I can easily see how he arrives at the conclusions that he does. I'm assuming that this is one of the main reasons that Bourneq wasn't lynched on Day 1.
I like this response too, as well as most of Tubesock's posts from this time. Tubesock is looking better now.
And Stutters695 is looking a bit better as well. I'm still leaning scum on him a little, but this post seems to be in the right direction.

I don't have any posts to cite, since rsoultin is a primarily conversational player, but her play seems to be shaping up. She's focused on the game, and while nothing truly stood out, she's generally been in the right place. She goes back to a null read until she actually starts pushing something.
And this seems really strange. TheBloodyDwarf shouldn't be a townread, since he hasn't actually done anything yet. He's proved that he's a noob, and that he wasn't expecting the game to be like this at all. That's fine, it doesn't make him scum, but it doesn't make him town either.
I don't like this explanation. It actually does make sense from a town perspective, it provides something that people can comment on (and they did). For the first few minutes of the game, that's pretty good. And Half the Sky already said that it makes no sense from a mafia perspective. If this doesn't make sense from either a town or a mafia perspective, why does that make prplhz mafia here? Her post doesn't at all describe why prplhz is scum, she keeps saying "he could do this as scum". Half the Sky seems to have dropped off a bit, but I don't know if that's an actual trend or just a perception I get from reading in small chunks.
This is yet another point on prplhz's favor. And no, this isn't an associative read. Two reasons. First is that scum doesn't really want to push against Half the Sky here, second is that he has good reasons for doing this (and I believe he is the first one to seriously push Half the Sky).

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I need to get dinner. I have some work to do after dinner, so I'm not sure when I'll be able to completely catch up with the thread, but I'll read when I can.

Town
prplhz

Town Lean
Breshke
jarjarbinks?
Tubesock

Null

rsoultin
Bourneq (maybe a bit lower?)
TheBloodyDwarf

Scum Lean
Half the Sky
Stutters695

Hm... This seems weird to me, given how quickly Half the Sky turned on Onegu. Does she really think that her case on a player who she so emphatically said she couldn't read is strong enough to convince her to lynch me before getting a good chance to read me (who I presume she can read)? This seems a bit suspect to me.

However, Half the Sky's posts on page 33 seem a bit better. The normal way to read Half the Sky is to see if she's being interesting or not; interesting Half the Sky is town, while boring Half the Sky is scum. However, in a newbie game, it's much easier to be interesting (the thread moves more slowly, so you can easily beat people to reads and be more original). And while Half the Sky has been interesting at times, her play has felt boring at times as well. Reading this thread all at once, I think that time zones could play a big part in this, and it's possible that I'm just scumreading Half the Sky partially for not posting while she was asleep... I need to take a look at her filter once I catch up with the thread.
There is no scum motivation to do this either? At least, not moreso than "in case I drop off the face of the earth, I have a vote, so I'm not modkilled!" Which is (obviously) a pretty stupid reason.And Breshke mentions this right after. Even more town points to Breshke.
I see now why people are suspicious of prplhz. His filter is almost worth diving for this post alone. Hrmph. Down to a town lean for him, I guess.

Wow, that post from Tubesock about TheBloodyDwarf. I think it's a far, far simpler explanation to say that TheBloodyDwarf simply is new and doesn't know how to play mafia at TL yet. I think that's far too complex of a plan, and not worth taking risks like editing posts (which if this special godfather fake-claim vet plan is true, he would know not to edit posts). The godfather shouldn't play to get cop checked, that's just not a good play at all (especially seeing as only half of the setups have a cop). So I don't think this push really says anything about TheBloodyDwarf (though it does suggest that Tubesock is town). This simply isn't something that mafia would create and try to push.

But really, Soren333 believed this in entirety? That kind of blew my mind.

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Despite the initial reason for voting for plotspot being sheeping rsoultin, prplhz takes responsibility for the lynch and pushes it on his own. So, I'm mostly willing to overlook his terrible vote (somewhat pending on how he explains his read on plotspot, though he doesn't really have to, it's obvious that plotspot's play isn't terribly towny).

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Bourneq's transition to vote for plotspot seems strange on the surface. He's a late addition to the wagon. I don't know how his earlier stance on plotspot looked, and I'm not going to be seriously diving filters until I catch up with the entire thread, but this could be suspicious. For now, though, it's not that important.

I kind of like Bourneq's case on prplhz, though. I still think that prplhz is solid town, but Bourneq is providing some good analysis. He's missing a lot of good reasons to townread prplhz, so it's only a half story, but from a new player, he seems to be putting in effort. And again, I'm not convinced that prplhz is someone who mafia would want to jump on in this game, given his activity level.

This post seems suspicious to me (and no, not for being out until End of Day). It's not terribly relevant, though.

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Wow, plotspot actually claimed scum? Ugh, what a horrid play. He wasn't at all dead.

I'm really surprised at prplhz suddenly deciding that he didn't want to lynch plotspot. That's really strange. And he seems adamant about not lynching plotspot, but isn't willing to lead the charge to someone else, he insists on following someone.I can see this coming from a town perspective, but it's really weird.

As far as end of day switches go, what the heck happened? This is very surprising to see.
Half the Sky suddenly seems willing to lynch Stutters695. Half the Sky seemed extremely laid back and settled with a plotspot lynch, and now suddenly, she is uneasy? This doesn't make much sense at all. She later clarifies this to be that she's definitely willing to lynch plotspot. So why this sudden reaction to reading Stutters695's filter? This feels out of place. I just don't know why Half the Sky waited until less than 30 minutes to End of Day to come up with this?

As a positive point for prplhz, upon seeing this, he immediately switched his vote. At least he's willing to back up his words with actions, when he sees a little support.

TheBloodyDwarf's vote looks really bad here. No explanation at all.
What? This makes no sense at all. Let's assume that scum would not bus here. You could be dealing with Stutters695 voting for plotspot, or Stutters695 voting for plotsplot. This is no reason whatsoever to change votes.

However, I don't think this makes Half the Sky scum. The mafia motivation, while there, isn't worth such an unexplained vote switch. And she moved her vote off of a town who claimed scum, who no one would have blamed her for mislynching.

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Town
Breshke
jarjarbinks
Tubesock

Town Lean
rsoultin
prplhz

Null
Half the Sky
Bourneq

Scum Lean
Stutters695
TheBloodyDwarf

Only 22 pages to go. And then filter diving. I'm sorry, I'm sort of losing my focus, I've been playing mafia for most of the day, it's really hard for me to catch up. Hopefully tomorrow I will be able to finish reading the thread.

So, The Shining read 16 pages (320 posts) in 30 minutes? That's a post every six seconds. He's not reading very carefully at all.
And this post isn't very good. His first point, about Ace1312 as a fallback policy lynch, is fair. But that isn't enough to lynch someone for. He scumreads Stutters695 for being suspicious about several of his (The Shining's) townreads, but he doesn't explain why he has these reads. And he doesn't show why the disagreement in reads is alignment indicative.And the fact that he had to go back and clarify this doesn't help him. He's provided some thoughts, but nothing special, nothing unique, nothing influential, nothing that stands out, nothing memorable. All he's done is share some thoughts. He doesn't seem to be pushing anything, just providing reads for the purpose of not dying.

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Again, this simply isn't true. Holyflare would be the nightkill here even with a scum team of three newbies who have never played with him before.

Rsoultin's comments on Half the Sky simply aren't alignment indicative. The scum motivation for that vote switch isn't there, and definitely doesn't outweigh the burden of trying to explain it. Half the Sky can go back to a slight town lean.

I like the confidence that prplhz has with regards to not being scumread. Given his level of play, it seems reasonable for him to expect to not be scumread. I'm not sure if he would act like this as town.

This is very good. However, I don't see why scum would be so willing to switch off of a town who claimed scum. He would never get lynched for mislynching plotspot here. This point makes a lot of sense if Tubesock is scum with Stutters695, but I don't want to make unflipped association reads. The most likely conclusion is that Tubesock re-evaluated without sharing with the thread, though this certainly makes him look worse. Rsoultin pointed out some missing posts, though. Still leaning town on Tubesock, definitely, just not as much as before.

Ugh, I'm super sleepy. I skimmed up to the point where I replaced in. Sorry this isn't particularly detailed. Good night.

Fecalfeast is actually a very good host/cohost, haha. Maybe I should shoot him instead of LoneMeow

But if he doesn't see it, then he won't count the shot on himself? We sort of need the host to resolve the shot...