/in
Student Mafia V
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
/in | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I propose a no lynch for day 1! Any followers? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Logic applied to "no lynch vote": Game is balanced on the thought that town lynches town on Day1. As long we get people talking about their thoughts and have relevant history on players, I do not see why we should lynch town Day1. Reason why I thought it would be a good idea to do (...lol) Read part (maybe I should have read the whole thing lol) of the get better at mafia link on this site and saw that making plans were good things. Since there is no cop/medic setups (I thought I saw that at the beginning) I could not figure out a good plan. So I went to google to find mafia strategies. First one I find? The no lynch day one. The site actually went on to make every person make an "opening statement" about everything and then people would question them based on their statement. But after day 1, they said don't lynch. I thought it was a good idea and did an analysis (yes using numbers...lol) to see which side was more favored with a day 1 no lynch. I bet you can guess what I found. I see many people think I will use voting analysis like last game. I think it got enough hate for a while. I definitely needed more data points to do the type of regressions I was doing. I had 2 then, 4 now. I probably won't talk about that again. Anyways, the mafia link also said establishing innocence was like priority #1. I definitely have screwed that one up again (rsoultin we should talk after this game lolz). I will go into what I think of who using quotes and stuff. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 13:43 GlowingBear wrote: This is bullshit. You never tell someone you're doing a pressure vote because you reveal you're doing it just for pressure. You're just trying to push him to look contributive. I agreed with this when I read it. I see people towning rsoultin for contributing. IMO she would do this every game mafia or no. Her pressuring of Trfel is not alignment indicative. However, I feel like her pressure led discussion so I'm glad she will do this every game. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 07:44 LightningStrike wrote: Ops I was just a little bit to tunneled on replying to you. I do agree his behavior is most likely town to policy lynch a vet player Day 1 but it not exactly good idea to do it (shurgs) This is behavior that doesn't surprise me. I'm using this quote because I feel like it best justifies my argument for why I think he's town. Last game (this is a meta read), LS did things like this and got decimated for it. Almost got killed D1. Got killed D2. I would hope this doesn't happen again. On the argument that LS is acting more "ballsy" and that "ballsy=mafia" I would counter with that LS is learning the game and is more confident. Plus, I felt he was kind of right in sticking up for himself in saying that trfel had playing 3 games and that was less "newby" than people were giving him credit for. IF I had to pick someone to be "the towniest of the town", I would pick LS. He has generated discussion. He is acting similiarly to last game where he was town. Only way to lynch this guy D1 would be to policy lynch him for lack of experience. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 15:35 Trfel wrote: GlowingBear, I'm assuming that you typed those posts over the course of reading the game? So the first things you said were not influenced on the later things? The rest of this post will be using that assumption. You read jarjarbinks D1 from the previous game (Newbie Mafia). You know that his play was miserable on D1 there as well, and he was town (his play was considerably better after D1). Someone is going to have to teach him how to play D1 (looking at you rsoultin), but I don't think I can see myself lynching him for inactivity, even if he provided a terrible excuse for it. What is so horrible about this post? I mean, it is surprising that LightningStrike didn't know what rsoultin meant by BS meter, but I don't understand why that makes it a horrible post. Are you saying that LightningStrike is scum because of this, or just that the post is bad? I also noticed that you said that one of my posts was bad, and then one of my paragraphs was bad and full of fluff. Then you townread me. What is the reasoning behind this read? That I attempted to follow your advice for promoting discussion? (for the record, I fully realize that your entrance post is intended to do the exact same thing, and I tried to make a point of it, but no one else responded, so..) Also, why the emphasis on Damdred? + Show Spoiler [For GlowingBear] + For obvious reasons we can't discuss the effectiveness of my attempts to promote discussion now, but hopefully you can help me with this after the game? I bolded the part (I hope lol) of this quote that I thought summed up my thoughts on Trfel and GlowingBear. Trfel's vote and GlowingBears equally "interesting" opening is probably due to the strategy GlowingBear helped give Trfel. GlowingBear's explanation of Trfel's Vote makes this WIFOM in my eyes. They both started the way they did to make waves and nothing more. Not alignment indicative in my eyes. That being said, I'm more suspicious of GlowingBear over Trfel because of his playing experience. A counterargument to this for Trfel is his "stubbornness" on the bottom of page 8. Strange play if you were just trying to "make waves". He could just feel a necessity to defend himself, but I felt the arguments against his vote were relatively weak at the time. Saying what I said above about GlowingBear, I feel like he might want to try doing something else besides claiming VT at the beginning if that was the "making waves" play that shows balls. Us newbs killed LS for just that last game and we (mostly me) are slow learners. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Gereipt: Your analysis seems fair. I feel like you would do this no matter what game you play. I haven't played this game to know if you left something out (if your mafia). So I can't give you a solid town or mafia read for now. Lonemeow: Only defended Trfel and questioned Rsoultin's questioning. Probably due to lack of playing with Rsoultin. This is a possible lurker in my eyes. I guess we shall find out tomorrow. CoolITLname- definite lurker! Or you know, could be sleeping or something...lol WE SHALL SEE Waffle- Tried to ask LS a question to establish credibility. Let's see what he does. DP- I liked gereipts analysis on DP. Very jumpy on Rsoultin for questioning Trfel as well as "missed" Trfel "making waves". Possible she could have just jumped on Rsoultin for the same reasons Rsoultin jumped on Trfel thought. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Rsoultin: What is your stance on DP? Gereipt: I noticed you put GlowingBear in your null section. What are your thoughts on his play so far? His town read of Trfel (who you scumread)? Damdred: Could you provide reasoning behind your scumposts of LS? I think I know why you scummed me and shining lolz | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 18:52 coolTLname wrote: jarjarbinks People aren't really suspecting you because of the logical reasoning behind your no lynch post, but the way u presented it. nice re-direct attempt though. Very useful information for town. So exciting that u went afk and totally silent. Well , maybe just in this thread. Why did you go afk for so long when u were *trying* to generate discussion? Or was that just bullshit fluff, while u were busy consulting with your mafia team? previous game history: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?user=jarjarbinks Like how you grab for the low hanging fruit there. Would you like me to share what I did on my Friday night besides this game? It's kind of nerdy. Definitely willing to share if that's what your suspicions are based off of. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 21:16 LoneMeow wrote: So your major reads are a summary of what people have done so far? No one is scum or town? Then why call them reads? Thanks for this. Your right this is mostly a summary here. This isn't helpful. I will try to avoid doing fluff summary posts in the future. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Gereipt asked for my reads on people. I thought I had good quotes to follow up my thoughts on some of the most active guys. The inactive guys not so much. Still wanted to shed my thoughts on them though in case. Damdred: for your reaction vote, did you include shining in your scum list to see if anyone would jump on it based on what was said before the game started? Or did you just do it because you needed someone else to through on your scum team? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 19:04 jarjarbinks wrote: Those were the major reads I got from what I have read up to when I started posting. I'm tired so I will not elaborate on the other people who have posted besides basic thoughts. Gereipt: Your analysis seems fair. I feel like you would do this no matter what game you play. I haven't played this game to know if you left something out (if your mafia). So I can't give you a solid town or mafia read for now. Lonemeow: Only defended Trfel and questioned Rsoultin's questioning. Probably due to lack of playing with Rsoultin. This is a possible lurker in my eyes. I guess we shall find out tomorrow. CoolITLname- definite lurker! Or you know, could be sleeping or something...lol WE SHALL SEE Waffle- Tried to ask LS a question to establish credibility. Let's see what he does. DP- I liked gereipts analysis on DP. Very jumpy on Rsoultin for questioning Trfel as well as "missed" Trfel "making waves". Possible she could have just jumped on Rsoultin for the same reasons Rsoultin jumped on Trfel thought. heyro sis! I'll attempt to do what you asked. I'll attempt to do what you asked except i'll put everyone in the section I think they should be in. Town: LS Null: Gereipt Rsoultin Trfel LoneMeow Breshke GB Damdred Scum: DP CoolITLName Definitely expect changes in the next 36 hours though. Hopefully I'll have more people out of the Null category. Damdred, I have another question for you in a second... | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 02:33 Damdred wrote: Here in the knowledge bomb for today guys; Town: Trfel: Slightly different from what I am used to in other games, the pressure vote is not alignment indicative as Geript is a good enough player to do this with post restrictions as scum or as town. However the followup to people commenting on his stance is really good, he calls to attention the problems in LS stance at the time which is a good observation and shows that someone is really reading the game. Hes inquisitive about why people are doing things and he seems to be in the thick of all talks when hes in the thread. For now hes in the town pile and i'm pretty sold that he shouldn't be the lynch today at all. LightningStrike: Some of the stances he has taken seem a bit flimsy at times and it seems like he reverts on them as time passes sometimes. Which gave him a few scum points at first from me. But when questioned about where he was in the game he took little to no time at having actual somewhat developed thoughts on the people in the game. Was really quick to answer and hes not scared to push what he is thinking in the thread (or just put it out there) Pretty sure he is town here. RS: Hes town, he pressures people. Hes reading the thread, he has follow up on what he says and hes asking opinions to try to figure out peoples alignments. Wouldn't lynch him today at all. Null: LM: Why you not have your neck out and giving actual thoughts instead of just reacting to what people say to you ![]() Warwaffle: not really rememerable but hasn't posted much Shining: where are you baby doll? Breshke: Who are you again? what do you think? Scum: TLCoolName: I have talked about him before now and I will reinterate. He attacks JarJar at one point and JarJar answers him, instead of interacting with him and trying to figure out his alignment. He disengages and says oh I like this post and never returns to it. When confronted with this information he says he just hasn't analyzed what JarJar has done. Shouldn't be much to analysis and Jarjar was in the thread at the time so he missed a good opoortunity to actually analysis the player and figure out his alignment. And then he switched to talking about me or rather slow pushing a target, he quoted something before the game started. He waited for someone else to vote and threw his vote down with that person. He claims it was a reaction test, but his reaction is not one a town would generally make. Instead of talking it through and trying to understand alignments of both he retreats from the confrontation and says just do analysis on everyone else. This guy is scum, hes not interested in finding out who is scum or pressuring people. He wants to find an easy target park there after someone else has fired the first shot and go on his merry way. General thoughts: I didn't bother to do everyone yet, Geripts huge post is full of good things that I want more peoples comments on. He might be onto something but I haven't rad DP filter or contextualized it yet. GB could really be town here, anger at the start seems authentic and GB hates being VT. Some good thoughts but not as many as drunk bear should usually have at this point. I'm undecided about JarJar currently, his recent postings looked pretty ok, but his previous postings looked bad. So can't really put him in a null town or scum currently but might lynch him depending on play as the game goes along. Overall cool is the scummiest thing in the thread and people should comment on what I wrote. Question for you on your flip-flop of LS. You put him in your 3 person "scum-team". I asked you about the LS inclusion. Other people made posts (not LS). Then you post this, with LS as #2 townread. What made you switch? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 03:07 geript wrote: Initial thought: I like Damdred's read on cool. Need to double check but it feels right. Damdred do you really disagree with my Trfel read that much? Last and most important point: you can call me Geript, getmoript, gayripped, supercoolasdudewiththebigdick. Under no circumstances am I to be called gereipt. lol my bad bro...or supercoolasdudewiththebigdick | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 03:23 rsoultin wrote: Ouch. Yeah. That looks like a current list rather than a list based off your initial post (you also left off WW who you mentioned in your summary above). Are you scumreading Cool for lurking? What makes DP scum? Questioning me? I see nothing inherently wrong with questions as long as they're leading somewhere. Yep current list. Not scumming Cool for lurking. More scumming him for leaving me so fast. Seems to be going after the easy target. I did leave out Waffle. He would also be on null. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 02:46 Damdred wrote: No that's not an acceptable answers hehe, never downplay yourself at all. Well, shining is generally lurky as scum in my experience with him. So I was hoping if he was lurking and just reading it would draw him out into the thread, and also I was wanting to see who would jump and try to call me scum for pregame/lurker lynch. It got somewhat a desired result When I asked you bout shining on your scum list you posted limited reasoning. I figured you would have had limited reasoning for LS as well but you towned him later. Hence why I asked. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 03:56 rsoultin wrote: DP, JarJar. What is the basis of your read on him? When you say "him" do you mean DP? Or are you asking me and DP's reads on Cool? I think you mean DP. DP- Overdefended trfel's voting at the beginning when he probably knew what trfel was doing. I liked geripts analysis on page 14 explaining it. That's all I have. I'll be back tonight to catch up and put in thoughts. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
JJB you need to explain your thought process for the scumread on Cool here. Sure. I'm used to as a player on this game so far getting discussed in long detail for a lot of posts I make. It was strange to me that he just moved on. I've seen myself in this game and the last one as an "easy target" that people could point the finger to if they wanted a mislynch. The first time I made a comment on that was my first response to him about low hanging fruit. I think I also agreed with someone else's comment along these lines. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 17:05 geript wrote: Ok JJB, I've have 10 minutes left to live before the mafia day vigilante shoots me are you ready to play a game? Sure whatsup. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 17:22 geript wrote: Describe Damdred, Rsoultin and Trfel with 1 color and 1 animal. e.g. Damdred [color] [animal] like based on what I know of them as a person? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Damdred: a brown gecko Rsoultin: A red owl Trfel: A tan chihuahua | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 17:34 DarthPunk wrote: Nah you are good now. Like 6 months to a year ago no way. How long have you guys played this game?! | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Dang. I don't want to play you ever if your mafia lol | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
To get brownie points for that I'll say she is one of my favorite people to have a conversation with and is pretty funny. Also super smart and stuff! lol | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 17:54 The Shining wrote: Geript - Town lost the game in the last Newbie by lynching Jar Jar D3. I was set to be lynched D1 before WW's lynch picked up speed. I'm addressing it because you said I was more nitpicky in that game. I would probably agree with you but the fact is I'm not a fan of D1, never have been. First D1 in my 1st TL game, we lynched a blue role. I still don't really like how that tasted. I'm much better at vote analysis and seeing if people's N1/D2 play and reactions stay consistent. I'm also not really sure why my argument against the setup is weird. When I read JJ's post, I checked the OP to see if there was a Doc/Cop setup. It took me a few seconds. I found it weird that JJB went on a Google search with this info instead of checking himself. What would stop him from checking all the possible setups when mentioning the setup being the reason he couldn't think of a plan? Only thing I could come up with is him possibly knowing the setup and not being interested in the alternatives. I won't put much weight on anything concerning setups after my balance theory regarding Doc and Vet(which was right btw) wasn't listened to but I still definitely felt it worth mentioning. Putting any thought out there is better than staying quiet any longer. Ya I didn't address this lol This will probably make me look kind of bad. I actually did read the 3 different types of town roles... lol I initially went there before I did the analysis on the whole no lynch thing (I can send you a link for it if I figure out how to do that with excel!) I looked back today and saw that cop/medic is really a thing lol. I could see why Shining and Rsoultin would scum me on this, because it definitely was pretty bad that I went off thinking that cop and medic couldn't be a role after literally reading the three roles lol I don't see how Shining picking up on the cop/medic thing makes him mafia. His BS meter probably just went off because he read the rules before the game started. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 18:11 Breshke wrote: I don't get why jarjar being present in the thread and responding to questions means he couldn't be mafia? Rsoultin said he is competitive so wouldn't he still try if not try harder as scum because he needs to stay alive. Good question on the being present in the thread and responding to questions thing. I feel like that is generally something everyone does? I would disagree with this, at least from my limited experience. At least based on my only game, if town mislynches town 3 times then town is equally screwed as long as medic doesn't save anyone. My last game we had 3 straight mislynches and we were done. I think this game has the same number of players. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Questions: Geript: does GB usually contribute better than in this game? His filter isn't as high quality as yours but he definitely appears to be scumhunting IMO. Damdred: Was the vote for GB reactionary? Or was it really because he was "boring"? Is boring enough to lynch him? Have you read DP's filter yet? He's already given the reaction you claimed to be looking for. Rsoultin: What are your thoughts on LM now that he's posted some more? Let me know if you have questions for me. I'll probably be on here for about 30 more minutes looking for things. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 05:09 rsoultin wrote: ^ What makes me think JJB is town. Dude, please explain your mislynches response when Breshke asked if scum couldn't try hard if they were competitive, too? Pin in LM. Sometimes I will not state my thoughts aloud if I think that will cause someone to play differently than they otherwise would, especially when I'm still trying to get reads on certain players. LOL. I was about to post a reply to that. I can't tell if LM didn't understand my reasoning or just wanted to "not understand it" to help his case. Based on the number of players, if town mislynches 3 straight times town loses. Just like if we lynch mafia 3 straight times mafia loses. That is equal. As a member of either team, I would equally not want to be lynched. That was my thought process. Lets look at day 1 mislynch vs lynching mafia. Mislynch would kill 2 people (1 day and 1 night unless there is a medic and medic is lucky enough to save the right vet/towny person). The number of people would be 8 to 3, causing a large spark in mafia's favor. IF mafia is lynched instead, the number is now 9 to 2. A large spark in towns favor. Those proportions also are a relatively equal deal in terms of influence IMO. If we mislynch day 1, town has to: 1: get a good enough read to garner enough votes to overrule 3 mafia votes. 2. get over losing one of their best players on our team 3. get over pressure of mislynching twice after being completely wrong on day 1 We are already at a disadvantage after cool getting modkilled. For all of those reasons I would be equally despondent if I am lyched day 1 as either town or mafia. Hopefully that was less mumbo jumbo lolz | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 05:12 Damdred wrote: I never put a vote on GB what are you talking about jarjar? No I haven't read dps filter Your right. I thought you voted for him but that was geript...lol Sorry about not making sense in my questions towards you. I think that was strike two lolz How come about the DP filter? Did he just give you a townie vibe? Or do you think you wouldn't be able to tell if he's scum and it isn't worth going through? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 05:37 rsoultin wrote: Pssht JarJar you just validated Breshke's argument against you xP That being try-hard is not alignment indicative. LOL this is why I would never try to be a lawyer xD | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 05:46 GlowingBear wrote: Jar jar Who is scum and why? You could convince me that damdred is scum with a slightly better argument. I don't know him. I don't know why he answered mine and now DP's questions about not reading DP's filter. Being a little wish-washy on you probably isn't enough for my vote though. I think that's why you asked this question. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 05:45 geript wrote: If you can't read 2 of my posts and know that I'm town, then there's really nothing I could ever say that would change that. I'm buddying up to DP because he's the only good player who I'm sure is town and can get an honest opinion on. How do you know DP is town? Was it something he did? It does appear like he's scumreading after reading his filter. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
My three people I would vote as mafia are you damdred and LM. 1. LM 2. Damdred 3. GB I don't like damdred's last posts. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 05:56 Damdred wrote: I'm glad you asked me dp, I am lazy and think your obvious town. I don't see you being Scum nor a lynch so I'm ignoring your filter because I read you in thread as town. Really bad excuses here. Geript is pretty town, if he's alive after d2 and no roles claim he's pulling a Russian mafia but he looks super towny This feels like a safe read here. LS is town based on hi a addiction to meta as town. Super safe. Common knowledge. Jjb is mafia I think Even more safe. I am an easy target. I'm definitely considering changing my vote based on this post. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Sorry again Damdred for generally being against you in this game. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 06:36 GlowingBear wrote: Damdred is town for not voting to survive. Jar jar binks is too wishy washy and doesn't have genuine scumreads. When pushed to tell us who his scumreads are, he said I should try to convince him damdred is mafia. Very dodgy. DAMDRED IS TOWN Have an eye open on DP and Geript. Breshke is likely to be mafia but he is not up for the lynch today. War waffle is most likely town. Gg. this post just popped up I get it. Strange on the switching but whatever. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 06:43 Damdred wrote: This is great shining says damdred and lm are lynched. Votes GB. Pure Scum I'm in agreement with you guys on this. If you get off my balls I would join you in the vote. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 19 2015 06:54 GlowingBear wrote: Because he didn't try to save himself. Jar jar did. saving yourself helps your team, whether you are town or mafia. Killing yourself hurts your team whether you are town or mafia | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I am the tracker. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
##vote: WarWaffle | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Geripts play makes no sense from a mafia perspective IMO. Poor Waffle, I honestly think he's played better than me both D1's and gotten lynched both times. I feel that GB and damdred are town based on EOD play. What a move by GB. Didn't understand it at first, but I think I get it now. LM did have two votes before my train started really picking up. It was 2-3 at one time. I think there was an hour left but it still was relatively close to EOD. I think Breshke made my train possible for GB to pull off his risky move. I wouldn't be surprised if Shining is town despite the EOD vote. His reads might have been wrong, but the way he played it made me think he could be town. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I was roleblocked! Surprise surprise lol. I guess LS makes a good cop! I was roleblocked womp womp | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I feel like the mafia killed GB for a good reason. I've posted a few and gone over them. You might think this is fluff. Maybe my thoughts are fluffy lol 1. Very suspicious of Geript. IF Geript is mafia, GB would have probably kept going after him if kept alive. This also makes sense as to why Geript is still alive. Geript got a little questioning but not much after persuading almost everyone to vote Waffle. At the end he was still trying to comprehend how DP 100% thought Geript is town. This is something to take note of later. 2. Was suspicious of Trfel/LM. Trfel is obviously scum, so there was some merit there. In that same post he mentions DP. Which leads to the conundrum. If Geript and DP know each other so well, one should at least be a little suspicious of the other right (if one of them is mafia)? Geript and DP, please look back at the others play and MAKE SURE you aren't being fooled. You guys are vets, your opinions will bear more weight than people like me. 3. Ended up HARD TOWNING Shining. I think some other people (could be wrong here) had been suspicious of Shining, which could have led to a mislynch. We can't really do those much anymore. 4. Thought I was telling the truth about being the tracker and DEFENDED ME. A LOT. I AM THE FREAKING TRACKER. Please stop doubting me! I think the biggest thing that got him killed was his thoughts on Trfel. That being said, there was probably a few other things he was looking into that got him killed as well. Rsoultin was hard on Trfel and she's still alive (and everyone thinks she's town). I am not saying he knew everything. But he was killed for a reason. PLEASE DONT FORGET THAT. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 20 2015 14:02 geript wrote: Damdred (2): rsoultin, LightningStrike jarjarbinks (4): Breshke, Damdred, GlowingBear, LoneMeow GlowingBear (6): geript, TheWarWaffle, DarthPunk, jarjarbinks, The Shining, Trfel Let's assume this is true for a second. We can color JJB blue I guess since no one else has claimed. Technically, Trfel and LoneMeow could both claim here I think since they haven't posted but meh. If LM is blue, he might not come off JJB so quickly. I think definitely as cop he's significantly less likely to come off, but whatever. Voting wise, Rsoultin makes sense. IDK if she'd be willing to bus that early. Hard to tell. Breshke I thought was town yesterday, not sure I see a real reason to change that. Damdred could be mafia; it makes sense with the GB kill. 2 mafia on the short stack seems ok enough. Shining I forget my read on him yesterday. The argument vs JJB seemed odd (knowing the setup). I think that makes more sense, but usually mafia don't vote back to back. IDK. Seems like DP is the obvious scum if both of them are. That's just really hard to accept. It might be better to evaluate the votes before that point. I know at least my vote on GlowingBear was forced. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I'm bout to crash, want to pick my brain on something? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 20 2015 14:37 Breshke wrote: @ Jarjar who is your top 3 lynches other than trefel. I'll rank them. 1. LM- The lurky mafia of the group. Was scumming me after I felt mafia knew I was blue. A lot of people had talked about them. I voted for LM before forced to leave and I'll stick to it for now. The Trfel vote on LM worries me, but I could see him doing that to throw people like me off. 2. Breshke- GB was suspicious of you, I'm suspicious of you. You were on me after I felt mafia knew I was tracker. 3. Geript- I could see Geript pulling off killing Waffle as mafia and thinking he could get away with it. Plus GB didn't like him. 4. DP- This is more based on what other people have said about DP being the #3 if LM and Trfel are Scum. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 20 2015 14:45 rsoultin wrote: Hrum...so, all things remaining equal and assuming the dead townie N2 is universally townread already...likely... Where are you standing? I know this is preemptive, but if I were scum and Trfel had a red check, I wouldn't fight this lynch. Personally. So I'm not expecting much new knowledge to come from Day 2. Your paragraph was pretty convoluted and I'm not sure I fully understand it. Is this for me? Convoluted means clouded or confusing right? What is hard to understand. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 20 2015 14:49 rsoultin wrote: Who did you track? I know you got RBd, but who were you going to track? ^That mirrors my PoE, too, though I don't see why geript would move a train off a town onto another town. Can you explain why you think he could still be scum? To me that seems too risky unless he's super confident he'll get townread for it even though he was saying he didn't like WW as the lynch earlier. Ugh sorry sis. Laptop issues xD keyboard need to come in soon xD I tracked Breske, first thought about LM but seeing how the thread was going I figured Breshke would be a better choice. I was looking for the suspicious quiet types. Only reasons I could see why Geript would make the vote go to Waffle: 1. Waffle was getting towned by most despite limited posts. Could be a hard sell to lynch (although I guess not due to geripts influence) 2. Bragging rights. Got us all to vote him based on "not the best" logic. 3. He started the GB train. GB was on to him. Could look bad. I feel like this isn't the vet play though. 4. Shifts the lynch on to me without voting for me. Causes me to either die or claim blue. If he was mafia he would probably know I was blue by that point. I'd have to admit I didn't do the best job of hiding it. If I was cop, they might have tried to kill me N1 instead of someone else. They would know for sure if I claimed. 5. He looks a little bad, but do you notice how many people think he's still town? He probably wouldn't see it as that much of a risk. Obviously these are all hypotheticals. I don't know if he is town or mafia. But its not like he had 0 reasons to switch right? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 20 2015 16:01 rsoultin wrote: ...This one. The others don't make sense...but 4 is worth investigating. I think they could RB you regardless, cop or tracker, but this one... I have to remember this when I'm going back through the votes. GB, right, was the train? You were the other. He tried to get people off of GB onto WW. It's untraceable to him if he doesn't get enough people to actually lynch WW and therefore lynches you by default, and he probably wouldn't have gotten enough if you didn't claim. And he didn't want to lynch WW before, on top of that. It verifies you as blue if they're suspecting that you are, or gets you lynched. Damn, bro. There is a possible scum motive for that wagon switch after all. ...okay. Gonna have to think on this one ><. The town to town switch was my main reason for townreading him with some of the other things he's done. Tomorrow I'll look at it more in depth to see if it actually jives with the EoD voting. I have to go back and check as well. I remember thinking, REALLY?! when the Waffle switch happened but I don't remember if it was geripts vote that actually got me in the bind. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 21 2015 07:30 LightningStrike wrote: I still here JarJar who you think is the entire scum team and why? Honestly I need to read again. I feel like my reads are stale. My thoughts really haven't progressed since last night. I like everyone else believe in your Trfel read. I voted LM at beginning of D1 but it seems like everyone likes LM as scum and LM isn't here to defend himself. Makes me worry. Still I'll have him as #2 now and go through the stuff again to see if I still like it. #3 Could be Geript, I need to read over some stuff on him. Breshke could be it, but having two lurkers and Trfel on a mafia team seems like not the smartest. I figured there'd be somebody more vocal, but RNG picks the people I guess. Those would be my top two choices for #3. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Ya I guess the game doesn't pick an optimal scum team. Did you mean in your game where you were mafia? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I looked at the votes. Definitely doesn't conclusively show that Geript switched to screw me. Right before he switched I had 4 and GB had 6. His switch made it GB-5 me-4. LS switched to me about 10 seconds later. THEN others followed. I mean it is possible that he did switch to screw me, but he would have had to figure people would get off the GB train if he switched and/or saw that the GB train was losing traction. Damdred was hard bussing me. It is possible he saw it coming, but he was definitely not the only factor in putting me on the chopblock. And thanks again for defending me at EOD! You get some more bro brownie points lolz | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 21 2015 09:08 geript wrote: Like JJB literally just was 100% wrong. Damdred never really heavily pushed JJB. He procrastinates on reading him for like half the day then lackadaisically tells people to vote for him. Like there's never even a good reason for Damdred to even say the shit he is other than his flipfloppery on GB (town-mafia-town). Plus JJB is literally claiming mafia with Damdred. Idk. I'll think about this more but I can't fathom a reason JJB says anything like that as town. In the least, we lynch Trfel and have more time to think about it. ##vote Trfel my bad I thought bussing was like heavily pushing xD He definitely was telling everyone to vote me though. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Should we both pick the same person tonight? One of us will probably be blocked but one of us will definitely go through. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 22 2015 07:52 LightningStrike wrote: If he was the Roleblocker than the scum would of made a bunch of noise over his lynch. Actually I feel like if Trf was RB and cop finds him there wouldn't have been any mafia defending him. It would just convict them too right? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
http://englishmafiaclub.com/strategy-for-red-day1.html So I guess on this site red players are good and black players are bad in comparison to red players being bad here and green/blue being good. I think my analysis might be hogwash because I couldn't factor how prior votes would affect peoples voting accuracy later on. For example, for a VT on day one in a game like this, there would be a 1/12 chance they vote right. On day 2 with two kills, then it would be 1/10 + cop/tracker influence. I didn't have a general "will have a better vote based on information read" factor and I feel like it is vital. Especially in this game. We have 62 pages of information right now, and I would hope at least some of it would help the VT make more accurate votes. So in conclusion (if you care/reading still) I think all my work I did on the no lynch thing was dumb and you guys were right. I was just mad D1 I had to claim with a Waffle death and N1 you died. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
What are the chances that mafia busses LM? I would think they would think they would be pretty high lol DP have your reads changed at all? Can you pull a LeBron and find our 3rd mafia member for us? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 10:45 Trfel wrote: There is no voting thread XD someone is really prepared for this game haha LightningStrike, you played in Carol of the Bells. So did LoneMeow. Any thoughts on him? Hmm this is the first time Trfel questioned LM. Very early in the game. IF LM is mafia, which I think he is, then Trfel definitely PLANNED to bus LM all along. If you follow his filter, you notice that he loved to townread me too. I think they were both smart strategies. He busses LM who obviously doesn't have a lot of time to play this game this round and unfortunately drew mafia, and he defends me who obviously was going to get a lot of suspicion in the game (he knew that from our last game). I think they were both smart plays, but he got cop read and he probably could have executed a little better. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 17 2015 12:00 Trfel wrote: I don't understand where you are coming from. Of course I intend to scumhunt. Why do you ask a question which has only one answer? I remember him getting a lot of towncred for this statement. I still didn't get why. I knew GB was one of the guys who towncredded him. Was the other geript? I don't see how town and mafia could respond differently to this. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Do you guys think that Trfel would try to bus BOTH of his mafia bro's? I would definitely hope not. Especially right out of the gate. I could see him bussing one and maybe joining a lynchtrain on the other, but trying to kill off both your buddies seems messed up to me. If geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel lol But anyways, what are your thoughts on this rsoultin? Think that possibly gives any towncred to geript if LM does turn scum? Definitely an if statement lol | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 18 2015 06:35 Trfel wrote: Sorry, you're right, that wasn't clear enough. I try to play with really high standards for scumreading someone. I stated this in my last game if you need me to dig up that quote. I am most suspicious of LoneMeow and a bit suspicious of DarthPunk. At the moment, my lynch list would probably be LoneMeow, then The Shining, then Breshke, then DarthPunk. However, I'm not going to worry about (potentially) policy lynching until the deadline is much closer. Is it strange that he puts The Shining and Breshke before DarthPunk on his list? His first sentence makes you think he's scumming DarthPunk, then he puts the shining and breske inbetween. Probably nothing, but strange in my mind. Not the obvious fixation on LoneMeow in his filter. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
[QUOTE]On January 18 2015 07:53 GlowingBear wrote: [QUOTE]On January 18 2015 07:37 Trfel wrote: [QUOTE]On January 18 2015 07:27 GlowingBear wrote: War Waffle probably town[/QUOTE] Why do you say this?[/QUOTE] He is going against two vocal players, which is kinda a suicidal move for mafia to do. The only motive he has to do this is if his partners are in danger and he wants to push a mislynch. Which I doubt is the case.[/QUOTE] I suppose I can see this. At the same time, WarWaffle seemed to provide many more reads in the previous game. I know this game hasn't been going for as long yet, but there has been more posting here. And last game he had lots of time issues as well (I know he said he had some in this game, I think, but they should be less than last game).[/QUOTE] This quote makes me think that if waffle kinda scums someone but then slowly backtracks that the person he is "slight scumming" is probably town. Probably a method to shed some suspicious light on someone without actually putting himself out there. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 23 2015 09:00 Breshke wrote: Scum is told the setup so they would have known there was two investigative roles so i think it is possible if not likely that scum busses both partners (maybe not the roelblocker) because you would want to distance from your team. That makes sense. Since he was a goon then, we might expect to see LM as the other goon over the roleblocker. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Maybe I wasn't as obvious as I thought? I do post very strange posts often xD | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 23 2015 09:17 Breshke wrote: @JJB am i correct in assuming you scumread LM? What do you think of the fact that basically no one disagrees with this? Feel free to answer this aswell RSo. It does bother me. I could definitely see why mafia would abandon LM based on his inactivity. If LM is mafia I could see LM telling them it would be ok if they bussed him. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I was saying that you look less suspicious. You want to lynch me for that? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 23 2015 09:00 Breshke wrote: Scum is told the setup so they would have known there was two investigative roles so i think it is possible if not likely that scum busses both partners (maybe not the roelblocker) because you would want to distance from your team. Do you think this correlates with how Rsoultin went after Trfel so hard so early? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 23 2015 09:26 geript wrote: "if geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel" Roles are already out. Him randomly pushing me for shitty reasons doesn't mean anything. Literally nothing. It was a joke. I was trying to point out a reason for you to look more town. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I see my posts are going nowhere. I was just trying to help. I'll be back on later if people have questions about anything I wrote. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 23 2015 09:31 Breshke wrote: No not really because im reading RSo as town and speculating on how the mafia team would act isnt really a reason to reconsider that. Like they might bus more but they might also just hard defend because wifom. Why do you ask this do you have other reasons to think she is mafia? Nope lol She could fool me any day of the week though lol | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I think they are keeping me around because I am less value to town than the rest of VT's. I am a confirmed town but that's it. I haven't really helped town at all because I suck at this game. If I wasn't tracker I would have been dead day 1. If I was mafia, I would keep the tracker like that too. I'm guessing they are banking on me getting reads wrong and mislynching people to the end. It's pretty humbling, but that's my guess on their strategy. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 24 2015 08:37 geript wrote: Pretend you're medic right. Someone claims cop with a tracker already claimed; you know one is lying. So if you lynch the redcheck, you learn which one is lying and who to put the save on at night. So not only would you not CC JJB's claim, you also wouldn't CC LS' claim. In the same way as mafia, same rules apply except that they have to claim being rb'd. Perhaps they were intending to CC JJB's tracker claim directly, but that's less likely to be effective. Hmm I don't understand this... So LS red checks trfel. Trfel flips scum so if this imaginary medic were real, then the medic would therefore save LS. LS died so that means medic isn't around...right? I would think it would be smarter to try to save LS and see if no deaths occur over most likely getting your cop killed just to "double check" that his red check wasn't mafia trying to sway everyone. Worst case you lose tracker and know a mafia. Best case you save cop and know mafia. Definitely worth the risk I my mind because Cop>Tracker. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 24 2015 08:37 geript wrote: Pretend you're medic right. Someone claims cop with a tracker already claimed; you know one is lying. So if you lynch the redcheck, you learn which one is lying and who to put the save on at night. So not only would you not CC JJB's claim, you also wouldn't CC LS' claim. In the same way as mafia, same rules apply except that they have to claim being rb'd. Perhaps they were intending to CC JJB's tracker claim directly, but that's less likely to be effective. Hmm I don't understand this... So LS red checks trfel. Trfel flips scum so if this imaginary medic were real, then the medic would therefore save LS. LS died so that means medic isn't around...right? I would think it would be smarter to try to save LS and see if no deaths occur over most likely getting your cop killed just to "double check" that his red check wasn't mafia trying to sway everyone. Worst case you lose tracker and know a mafia. Best case you save cop and know mafia. Definitely worth the risk in my mind because Cop>Tracker. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 24 2015 08:37 rsoultin wrote: I just think that you have trouble getting read as town, bro. After this game we can definitely talk about that if you want. ^^ Easier lynches tend to be kept around because scum needs town to mislynch. Give me your thoughts? The JarJar brain juices help me think lol. Actually, someone's post on how killing LS before me made more sense than my argument for keeping me alive. Having a 100% town is pretty helpful, despite my not so good reads sometimes lol I'm uncertain on the damdred vs geript battle going on... if one of those was scum, which one would u choose? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
DP- Can you clarify what exactly makes damdred a better lynch than LM? Was it just because LM started posting last night? Did your spat with Rsoultin make her more scum, or did you not getting anything out of that? Rsoultin- Have you learned anything from your inquiries of the past 24 hours? Did your talks with Geript and DP make you think either was more town or more mafia? Shining-Besides me, who are 3 people you consider most town at this point? Damdred- Who are 3 people you consider most town at this point? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I like geript's analysis above. I'm having some issues with quotes and my compy, so I'm not going to quote It but it is on this page. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
| ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either: You guys were wrong OR My model sucked some big balls. I went with my model sucked some big balls. I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people): Me: 43% mafia... lol Breshke: 41% mafia Rsoultin: 31% mafia Shining: 30% mafia Everyone else: 29% mafia This is without a +/- 3% buffer. But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:47 geript wrote: So how much percentage points do everyone get? I ask because I was interested in it at end of game; I mean it did have mafia as the #2,3 and 4 on the to lynch train. Ya well its obviously due to change. But I guess you know that. There's two parts to it. First part If you vote for the lynched townie, it causes a 2% increase, if the lynched townie voted for you, it gives you a 23% increase. If the guy that got killed at night voted for you, then that's a 16% increase. Second part: You have to factor in wagons and strength of the votes. So if you look back to the waffle lynch, there was 8 people on waffle, 2 on GB, and 2 on me. All the people who voted waffle get a 2% increase to start with. But since there was such a big wagon on Waffle, I used a factor of (4/12) and multiplied it by the 2% to get the actual increase. I found 4/12 by subtracting 8/12 from 1. I did this because on wagons mafia has less of an incentive to park their vote on the lynched guy. So for day 1 all the waffle voters only got about .7% increase because of their waffle vote. The less experienced/good the town team is, the less you can use the model. It also helps to have more players in the game. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:44 rsoultin wrote: Don't know how right your model is there, bro, but if it's dependent on other people's reads, we're doing so well this game it might as well be trash -_- Sorry. Just irritated with myself. Anyway, talk to me about what you think without the stats? I do feel like most people's reads haven't been the best in this one. Very confused. I didn't get much out of LM's filter either. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:12 rsoultin wrote: JJB, help me out here. I'm OMGUSing Damdred. Are my points valid or am I being a stubborn ass again? >< I know you're town, and I respect your intelligence, so can you double-check me real quick? Hold on I'm catching up. I'm assuming you have an argument on him in this thread somewhere? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:49 geript wrote: To be clear, the reason why it was bad was that you never explained how people got to X%. You know. Like: Voting for a dead towny adds X percentage Being voted for by a dead towny adds Y percentage etc. Ya I could see that. I think it was because I knew I needed more datapoints and didn't want people to be hung up on certain %'s that change when I get more data. I could see how people would have taken it for a "he's just making things up" kind of deal. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:15 rsoultin wrote: EBWOP: o.0 can you tell me where you got your percentage increases from? the 23% and 16%? just as a point of curiosity Regressions. Took old games and found the change in %'s from what the %'s should have been if the person voting for town was killed etc. And that 23% is beyond what the maximum % increase would be. The highest it would be in this game is 23% times 12/13 which is 21.2%. That would be if the lynched guy parks a solo vote on someone he thinks is mafia while no one else believes him. Probably will never happen. Sorry if its confusing. It would be easier to explain it if you saw the model. Honestly I feel like my model is useless in this game though. It's not going to help us find scum. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 25 2015 06:43 Damdred wrote: I'm wrong more often than not, LM is a lower activity player. And I could be tunneled, and i'm probably wrong about Geript. I think this quote shows when/why he began switching. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I guess if you think that breshke is town, then it would make more sense if Damdred was mafia to switch to him. There was the beginnings of a train on Damdred. The thing I worry about most with Damdred is the GB kill day 1. I could see a team with damdred/trf on it wanting GB dead. But I could see a team of Trf + two people who haven't played with geript and DP much wanting GB dead as well... The more posts I get from Dp and Geript, the more I think they are town. Unless they are both mafia, they are 100% sure each other is town too. I might park my ideas that they are town for a while, unless something crazy happens. I think the NK will help us get a better idea of what is going on. Honestly I've gotten more suspicious of you (Rsoultin) as the game has gone on. The problem is I can see the way you are acting being due to u as a person, which makes me hesitate on it. I could see you having this strong/long a filter with you as mafia though... Shining is probably the biggest question mark in my mind. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:46 rsoultin wrote: Yeah, that was his explanation for the vote. Did you read the quotes I posted and my comments? That's what I need the sanity check on. Ya idk your argument didn't really convince me of anything. You have quotes there, but idk if they are as implicating as you believe they are. I'll go double check. | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Double check has me seeing confusion on the Damdred flip, but I didn't get the same end result as you did. It is weird to me that Damdred would flip and still say that LM is a good lynch when LM still had a ton of traction. I think that if he knew that LM would flip town, as soon as he flipped to Breshke he would have not said anything later about LM being a good lynch. I would think he would want it to look like he realized LM was town from DP's argument and switched on to someone else because of the argument so he's slightly cleared of suspicion when LM flips town. Actually the hard-bus trfel part of the whole rsoultin=mafia thing makes little sense to me. I don't see you taking such a big risk for no reason. The only reason why I felt you were suspicious was because some of your play has paralleled his (lol). It seemed to me like Trfel had already planned to defend me and get on LM. Like pretty much when the game started. He always defended me from the get go and went after LM. Before I thought that meant he was bussing LM, obviously that wasn't the case. You have done the same thing in this game. The reason why I didn't feel like it was worth bringing up is because I saw that you as a person would probably defend me in the game and that LM was a relatively easy guy to take for mafia until EOD yesterday. Your resistance to change EOD yesterday does follow Trfel's planned actions. It could be coincidence though, but I guess I am allowed to be suspicious lol | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
How does that statement presuppose that the main wagon is town? I missed that part. In your mind, You me bresh shining are all town. Is that still true? That would make dp or geript 1 mafia and damdred the other? | ||
jarjarbinks
569 Posts
When I read that I'm thinking he's not basing that observation on the vote/flip of LM. Its more on the basic knowledge of scum vs town making deadlines. I could see myself as mafia waking up if I was pushing one of the wagons and wanted to see if it worked. I could also see myself as town doing the same thing if I thought I was right. That means I disagree with his statement in defining DP as town. | ||
| ||