VI Titanic Mini Mafia: The Return of MSPaint

On September 25 2014 06:18 Hapahauli wrote:
Got home today wondering if my stuff on VE last night was my own confirmation bias or something legitimate. And I think it's legitimate.

Everything about VE's play screams "false confidence".

This is a quote from VE in Storm 2 mafia.


It's very descriptive of his early town Day 1 play. Town VE likes going for people who aren't active and are not contributing.

To go after me this confidently early on is really really unlike his town-play. And this is very consistent through his recent town-games.

In LXVIII, he is on a lot of wagons, focusing mostly on Lurkers and newer players. First Fecalcast, then an inactive holyflare, then a brief OMGUS on Rayn before wanting to lynch an afk Palmar at the end of the day due to town consensus.
In Storm 2, he tunnles mderg, a classic Day 1 lurker.
In Neat and Tidy Mafia, he goes after MysteryMeat for early Day 1, who was inactive/lurkish/etc.
In Normal Mini LVI, he reads SloOsh and BH as possibly mafia, but turns down voting them in favor of a lurkish player, mderg:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/458796-normal-mini-mafia-lvi?page=14#262

The basic summary is that VE as town is not a player who confidently locks onto one player. He's a guy that's always mindful of inactives, has a self-awareness of his play and the rest of the game, to the point where he will drop his own reads to consolidate with the opinion of the town.

To go after me (a vet, and the most active player in the game so far) so early and so confidently is so unlike his town-play. To instantly read two less-active players as town (MM and Damdred) so early into the game is borderline insanity for his town play.

---

Take a look at this quote from VE's most recent town game (LXVIII):


He reads rayn as town, but is self-aware enough of his own read-accuracy that he's willing to be bullied off of reads.

YOSO Mafia contains my favorite example of this:


...where VE literally gets bullied off of his town-read of Caller pages after he makes it. Self-awareness of his own accuracy, etc.

So VE is so mindful of thread sentiment and the opinions of other townies that he can be bullied off of his own reads. Consistently. He'll even swap votes just because other people aren't agreeing with him without even changing his mind about his reads.

---

VE is defined by confidence.

And this confidence usually manifests itself through his reads.

His early Day 1 play in Catastrophe Mafia:




Town reads everywhere. Really confident about them, but also very questionable logic.

Tone is half-trollish, half-serious, and VE is appearing to play along with the thread.

Sound familiar? This is exactly what he did in this game. Play along wiht the townie points thing, take a very half-serious/trollish tone, and dole out some incomprensibly confident town-reads on MM/Damdred for incomprehensible reasons.

His confidence manifests itself in Carnival Cruise through his scum-reads.

An initial super-confident push on WaveOfShadow:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/407685-carnival-cruise-mafia?page=22#435

Doesn't really drop his case on Wave, then pushes Oats:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/407685-carnival-cruise-mafia?page=23#443

Then, all aboard the VAYNE TRAIN!
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/407685-carnival-cruise-mafia?page=44#876

He's super-confident about all of his early pushes, and by the end of Day 1, thinks all of these players are mafia. Isn't necessarily going after lurkers, and is just indiscriminately going on people he can push cases on.