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On August 28 2014 09:15 Holyflare wrote:
You realise this is a points based game right? You are essentially saying that 2 50/50's (your group and ez read marvs group) should be after shit storms thus giving us the lower chance to win?
the reason I want to be last is because I tend to be one of the most shitstorm creating guys on TL whenever I have to defend myself but I know to be town, so yeah...
I have no reason to believe that B or D will be a shitstorm. The only one I'm really worried about is A so far and I'd rather be done with it early in this case because that means we have people like you, Marv and me still around judging the situation.
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On August 28 2014 09:28 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 09:22 Professor Apathy wrote:On August 28 2014 09:15 Holyflare wrote:
You realise this is a points based game right? You are essentially saying that 2 50/50's (your group and ez read marvs group) should be after shit storms thus giving us the lower chance to win? the reason I want to be last is because I tend to be one of the most shitstorm creating guys on TL whenever I have to defend myself but I know to be town, so yeah... I have no reason to believe that B or D will be a shitstorm. The only one I'm really worried about is A so far and I'd rather be done with it early in this case because that means we have people like you, Marv and me still around judging the situation. This is what i am saying. If you are town then your group has the highest win rate for getting a point for town. I don't understand why you'd put yourself last and jeopardise that?
I kind of have a tendency to ragequit whenever I'm town and in a position where I have to defend myself against bullshit
On August 28 2014 09:28 Not really holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 09:22 Professor Apathy wrote:On August 28 2014 09:15 Holyflare wrote:
You realise this is a points based game right? You are essentially saying that 2 50/50's (your group and ez read marvs group) should be after shit storms thus giving us the lower chance to win? the reason I want to be last is because I tend to be one of the most shitstorm creating guys on TL whenever I have to defend myself but I know to be town, so yeah... I have no reason to believe that B or D will be a shitstorm. The only one I'm really worried about is A so far and I'd rather be done with it early in this case because that means we have people like you, Marv and me still around judging the situation. Well, there will be a shitstorm in cell D for sure when mtam figures out who I am. I had beef with mtam. Once. And it was a glorious shitstorm. I be disappointed amiko have not figured out who I am yet. You're a dastardly dead lover in my eyes.
Good thing you just told him!
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On August 28 2014 09:33 Amiko wrote:
@Apathy:
Why is D a more sensible start than any other cell?
Also, if you feel C is easier to read you should agree with me that it should be in the first three.
If a cell is relatively easier to read, it should be in the first three days so we can be sure we get a vote on it.
I don't think I'm able to read Holyflare within 48 hours at all (that is, first lynch cycle). He's someone who can pull off things I'd give other people townpoints for as mafia as well, thus delaying my read on him because I have to keep that in mind.
Same goes for Marv despite my idea that I think I'll be able to read that group pretty comfortably a bit later on.
I mean I don't know who the two smurfs in D are but I hope it's more sensible than having group A as a starter 
I'd be somewhat fine with swapping C and B I think. Not sure yet though. I just don't think we have to be afraid of a 3-0 stomp here and can play a bit more risky due to the set-up thus leaving stronger players for later.
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On August 28 2014 09:43 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 09:41 Professor Apathy wrote:
I just don't think we have to be afraid of a 3-0 stomp here and can play a bit more risky due to the set-up thus leaving stronger players for later. Didn't mafia win the first two games 3-0? I didn't read the whole things but the pictures on the OP suggested that
I basicly think we benefit more by boosting our "good" lynches than by boosting our bad options just slightly and thus having the "good" lynches early.
Look at the mafia database and you'll find that (at the time Kita did his post) randomly lynching on d1 would have resulted in more mafialynches than lynches that happened in all of mafia, again at that time in point and I haven't cared enough to take a look and see wether that changes.
I do think an easy group is still a coinflip if put early and not improving our chances as much as other people apparently think while shitty groups mostly just stay shitty no matter the time given.
I do think that an easy group gets extremly easier if given enough time to solidify the reads while a shitty group only gets marginally harder to read when put early.
Add to that that we'd have strong players around later on, who we have good reads on at that time and I like my idea more than what other people think right now.
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On August 28 2014 09:53 Amiko wrote:
@Apathy:
To me, the suggestion of Cell D earlier seems off because there are two unknowns off the bat. Granted, I am pretty sure I know who Not Really Holyflare is now, but I don't think you do. It seems to me that cell would be tougher to read.
I'm also a little mixed on your response -
As not having Cell B on D1... that explanation feels kinda weird to me.
I don't think there's any cell where I know now that I can read all three players.
If we can read two, that's enough. So why highlight one player you can't read?
I never played with misterymeat. Holyflare I feel like I can read only after a little time, thus his group would be on spot #3 for me.
About D, unknown is still better than certainly bad group. I don't want C and B on day 1 for reasons stated above so it's only between A and D for me really.
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On August 28 2014 10:10 Not really holyflare wrote:
Its simple.
A -> D -> C -> B -> E.
A because bh gets harder to read as time passes on.
D next because I'm confident I can lynch the sad merican mafia in a 50/50.
C because marv gets less confident of his reads later on.
B because hf& wos needs time to choose who is mafia.
E last because.
that's close to my order. How about we put our votes together and you vote me with a compromise on both sides.
I've got
D -> A -> B -> C -> E, and
A -> D -> C -> B -> E. is what you got
what do you say about D -> A -> C -> B -> A?
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On August 28 2014 10:14 Holyflare wrote:
Also lilwade is probably definitely 100% mafia. He's posted in his newbie game quite a few times since we got our pm's and not here at all
well in that case you can trust me to only have the best of me town in my mind when proposing my idea, right? lilwade is in my group!
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On August 28 2014 10:17 Not really holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 10:14 Professor Apathy wrote:On August 28 2014 10:10 Not really holyflare wrote:
Its simple.
A -> D -> C -> B -> E.
A because bh gets harder to read as time passes on.
D next because I'm confident I can lynch the sad merican mafia in a 50/50.
C because marv gets less confident of his reads later on.
B because hf& wos needs time to choose who is mafia.
E last because. that's close to my order. How about we put our votes together and you vote me with a compromise on both sides. I've got D -> A -> B -> C -> E, and A -> D -> C -> B -> E. is what you got what do you say about D -> A -> C -> B -> A? How about you vote me and so I can set the groups at D -> A -> C -> B -> E? Since my group will be the first, I literally cannot change the ordering without being lynched for lying. Easier to vote for me, don't you think?
but but... I want to be mayor 
fine but I'll unvote the second you change that order. And I assume that last A in your post was an E because you got group A twice in there. Don't even think about playing dirty tricks on me if that wasn't a typo!
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On August 28 2014 10:26 Not really holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 10:24 Professor Apathy wrote:On August 28 2014 10:17 Not really holyflare wrote:On August 28 2014 10:14 Professor Apathy wrote:On August 28 2014 10:10 Not really holyflare wrote:
Its simple.
A -> D -> C -> B -> E.
A because bh gets harder to read as time passes on.
D next because I'm confident I can lynch the sad merican mafia in a 50/50.
C because marv gets less confident of his reads later on.
B because hf& wos needs time to choose who is mafia.
E last because. that's close to my order. How about we put our votes together and you vote me with a compromise on both sides. I've got D -> A -> B -> C -> E, and A -> D -> C -> B -> E. is what you got what do you say about D -> A -> C -> B -> A? How about you vote me and so I can set the groups at D -> A -> C -> B -> E? Since my group will be the first, I literally cannot change the ordering without being lynched for lying. Easier to vote for me, don't you think? but but... I want to be mayor fine but I'll unvote the second you change that order. And I assume that last A in your post was an E because you got group A twice in there. Don't even think about playing dirty tricks on me if that wasn't a typo! that was YOUR typo by the way.
indeed lol. Sorry 8(
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On August 28 2014 10:45 Holyflare wrote:
But if marv is mafia he's pretty straightforward to read and would be an easy point for town which we might not ever reach because you'd be placing him last. Which is why making orders before everyone has spoken is silly.
if we assume that you're confident in reading everyone within 24 hours yes, otherwise no.
How can you be so confident on being able to figure everyone out within 24 hours to make it the basis of how you want the groups ordered instead of placing them the way BH and I want (except that BH has this one major flaw in his order which is group E).
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On August 28 2014 10:50 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 10:48 Professor Apathy wrote:On August 28 2014 10:45 Holyflare wrote:
But if marv is mafia he's pretty straightforward to read and would be an easy point for town which we might not ever reach because you'd be placing him last. Which is why making orders before everyone has spoken is silly. if we assume that you're confident in reading everyone within 24 hours yes, otherwise no. How can you be so confident on being able to figure everyone out within 24 hours to make it the basis of how you want the groups ordered instead of placing them the way BH and I want (except that BH has this one major flaw in his order which is group E). I am. You also only need to be most sure of the first group in the first 24h anyway.
No I don't think so. A group you're really sure about should be in spot 3 or 4 to solidify that read as much as possible.
You can put a crappy group that won't improve over time in spot 1.
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On August 28 2014 10:57 mtamburini wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 10:56 Not really holyflare wrote:On August 28 2014 10:53 mtamburini wrote:On August 28 2014 10:48 Not really holyflare wrote:
Thats why we go DACBE.
C for guaranteed 1 scum lynch (unless marv derps) while A and D goes first. B for more risks and E being the most risky group to lynch into. Why not make that group go first? Are you even thinking If marv is town, he cannot help find scum in first few groups If marv is scum, he (kinda) gets a free pass for not trying since there is literally nothing to try, and nobody lynches marv d1. Putting C in first is worst idea ever. But its guarenteed no? So why not take a 1-0 early lead.
there's no difference in wether we make that point on day 1, day 2, day 3 or even day 4 for that matter because if we lose 3 other groups we lose no matter if we score that point early or not. Who cares about scoring early if having good people alive later on gives us a better chance to win, thus resulting in C/B/E all for the last 3 spots and starting with D/A
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On August 28 2014 11:21 Amiko wrote:
Here's another way to look at this which I think supports having C earlier in the order
We need 3 correct lynches to win. It doesn't matter whether those wins are D1, D2, D3 or are D3, D4, D5, or whatever.
Thus, the most important thing is to order things such that at least 3 cells have the highest chance of success for lynching mafia.
Let's assume for a second that Cell C is the easiest to read (and I can't say for certain that's true but I'll run with it for this example). If the cell didn't have people with high activity/content, I would typically want that cell to be first. Not because we need to start with a win, but because then we would be most likely to get verifiable information earlier.
If we lynch correctly D1, then we know one mafia and two town on four days.
If we lynch correctly D3, then we only have that information for two days.
However, in this case people are saying that the easiest cell to read is also the cell with players that are likely to give high contributions and sure, that has weight too. But, I feel like if there is a cell that is the easiest to read, I absolutely wouldn't vote for it to be last.
don't forget that the reads of those people get better as time goes on as well. I'd rather take 2 days with confirmed reads that are reasonably stable because they're already 3 cycles old than having 4 days worth of d1 reads no matter who that person is that made the reads.
Slot #3/4 gives us a healthy compromise of everything. We get stable reads because they're not just d1 reads, we get some time with the people still alive and we get some time with confirmed reads afterwards.
And I've said this a bunch already but I said I'm feeling good about reading that group as a whole given a bit of time. Like I said, both Marv and Holy are people who are capable to play like townies as mafias and thus need to be given some extra time to make sure of that in my mind, so I really don't want to make the decision d1/d2 despite calling it easy.
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On August 28 2014 21:08 27ninjabunnies wrote:
BH, you have a point, which is exactly why I would vote you over these other scrubs.
If we are hard to read, you don't want us near the back, because you lose all the strong players within the game.
(Though I'd like to think I'm one of the strong players)
Lilwade, you entrance appalls me. You calling me mafia makes me wonder if you are a good mafia player at all.
Curious, why am I clearly the mafia in the cell over Apathy? You must have wonderful reasons seeing as you have never played with me or Apathy.
Funny thing, I actually thought the same way he thought and wanted to wait until seeing lil's entrance before commenting on it.
You do give off a way to stiff vibe for me right now. Like you're constantly on edge for some reason.
Your very first post hit me as... not funny (I'm not giving you a bad time for that) at the same time it sounds like you're actually trying to somewhat defend yourself in that post. It's just a really odd mixture between people trolling, you trying to dig in as well but in the end we get some super awkward post from you.
And that feeling continues with your posts later on. You start off saying you like me towards a post from me that was clearly not to be taken seriously, again trying to keep the ball of "I can shitpost too!". I don't have a problem with that one post actually, not at all and no I'm not taking it seriously.
But you do end up going afk, get back in the thread and you're super serious when nothing has changed. My joke of a proposal (really I think it's good, the reasoning behind putting E last I mentioned just happened to be a joke) still is largely the same and you somehow think that's odd now.
So you actually went serious mode but I don't see why. You didn't do anything at all.
Furthermore:
On August 28 2014 12:53 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Okay, I'm back, but going to bed soon since I have class at 8am.
That being said (pob should have thought about that before joining this game.)
So out of my cell (I still need to catch up), my main FOS is PA. Screw going last for one, and idk. Something about him doesn't sit right with me. Im not sure yet. My mind can change.
I have now like, 7 pages to catch up on cause you mofos type too fast.
People I know I'm not voting for mayor currently: Ritoky and PA.
I'm still up for mayor. I'd like my group to go 3rd or 4th, but not last. For the reason that it takes a bit for me to be able to read people well, but I am absolutely terrible late game. Selfish, I know, but I think by then I can make a pretty good guess on who mafia is, which in the long run is better for town.
If you have any questions for me, let me know. I'll read them either tonight and respond, or catch up completely after my classes tomorrow!
more proof of you being unable to just be straight up with us. What's that "My mind can change" doing there? Of course people's minds can change, or so I'd hope. What's the point of mentioning that?
This is in essence exactly what I'm talking about. I think you're really scared and you're unconsciously (?) already setting up a retreat when there should be no need to be so wishy washy.
TL;dr:
Whenever I read your posts I get the feeling that you lack the balls to actually just shitpost or say what you mean.
That is I don't get the feeling that you actually feel the need to post something more serious when you do but do so because you think you should.
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On August 28 2014 22:15 WaveofShadow wrote:
Lol I can tell you why she lacks the balls
But mebbe also she scum lol
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/YiK3P7I.gif)
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I might have posted that gif on purpose to look like one!
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On August 28 2014 23:41 marvellosity wrote:
We started! Hello.
vote Not really holyflare for D -> A -> C -> B -> E!
you know you don't want me anywhere close to a spot that actually matters and gives the spotlight to me.
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noone cares about the mayor, it's just the order.
If you don't want to vote a smurf, do you intend to run yourself and bring us the glorious D -> A -> C -> B -> E?
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I'm a tricky player, planting seeds everywhere. Don't mind that
About the question. I have groups B, C and E for the last three slot for reasons explained above so that leaves A and D for slot #1 and #2.
Group D has 2 smurfs but it has the potential to not be a shitty group while group A is just going to be a shitfest no matter what and something I'd like to not have on the first day. I really don't want to have to have ritoky, BH and batsnacks discuss each other on the first day...
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I don't leave it around to bubble up longer. I want it on 2nd spot just not the first one to not give us a cancerous start. But fine... I can go with
A -> D -> C -> B -> E or
A -> D -> B -> C -> E as well
the main point really is A/D being slot 1+2, C/B being slot 3+4, E being 5th. The order within those doesn't matter all that much to me.
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EPT
