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GG.
I think town had this one in the bag after N2. Sadly, we threw it hard after that. I do think I played okay this game. My reads were pretty good looking back at the game with the exception of D2. Had I not been so inactive during that time, I strongly doubt that I would've been lynched. So in some sense I have myself to blame for getting lynched.
One interesting aspect of my own play which I may need to evaluate is the fact that I can be quite a dick at times. Being a dick isn't something that really should be alignment indicative though I do think that town are more inclined to be dicks than scum. It does apear to me though that alot of the suspicion against me was based somewhat on the fact that I was a dick. Like, noone ever said "Lazermonkey is a dick therefore he is scum" but it seemed to me that alot of townies were a bit to buthurt to see my actions from an objective standpoint. And I don't really blame them because I know emotion can have a very strong effect on reads even though they shouldn't. Maybe I should try to be less of a dick in the future though. It just might increase my chances of winning.
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Some shoutouts as well:
Bunnies: You didn't deserve to get lynched. You weren't shining town but there were far far scummier players during D1.
YKZ: You played well overall. Without you town would've been completely lost. With that being said, your read on Bunnies was very off. I think you have way to much faith in the Kenpachi rule. Kenpachi rule should be regarded as a slight scum tell and not something you base your entire read around.
Snickers: I appologize for being rude to you. Your reads were actually quite good. But having good reads is just 50% of the game. The other 50% is being able to convince other of your opinions by making apealing arguments.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Hmm, now that I'm thinking about LYLO more, I don't think the big mistake was sloosh voting me, in that "sloosh voted for a player who flipped town". The big mistake is that we were all (and by we I mean sloosh and a little bit chez) sitting on our hands when the votecount was like this:
Koshi (2) - Chez YKZ
YKZ (2) - Release Sloosh
Release (1) - Koshi
Obviously at this point I'm aware that Koshi's just gonna hop on the YKZ wagon, but imo Sloosh should known 100% that this is a losing setup. Sloosh thinks I'm scum with Kosh, and Chez and Release are town. Still, he unvotes Kosh and votes me, and starts yelling at Kosh to return to thread. This means that at this point, Sloosh envisions a YKZ/Release scumteam. The thing is, in the event of a YKZ/RElease scumteam, he's utterly fucked because Chez is voting Kosh; Release will just delurk and vote Kosh.
The fact that Sloosh and Chez were on different wagons meant that, from Sloosh POV, he's fucked if one of YKZ or Koshi is town; the scum will just lynch that one. Town can't split votes in a LYLO situation. Even if Sloosh strongly believed a YKZ/Koshi scumteam (in which case the split of town votes wouldn't result in a mislynch), you still want to have all town players on the same wagon just because it reduces the risk of a scum play. Here's quick lesson of conditional probability since I'm bad at explaining these things...
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/09wBHxD.png)
This graph shows outcomes for the "chez votes for Koshi, Sloosh votes for blazinghand" scenario. As you can see, this can only possibly work out if both koshi AND BH are scum. 75% of the time, you fuck up. Game over
Now let's say sloosh consolidates onto Kosh, or Chez consolidates onto YKZ (assuming in this case that Release is town I guess). This chart shows sloosh voting for Koshi
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Gk7dPCe.png)
In this case, you can see that the outcomes for "Koshi and BH are both scum" and "Koshi and BH are both town" are the same. Also, same as before, if Koshi is town and BH is scum, you lose.
The difference is, if Koshi is scum and BH is town, you lynch scum this way.
Now, taking a look at this, we can see that voting for Koshi, or convincing Chezinu to vote for YKZ, was strictly better than splitting town votes. In the event both Koshi and YKZ are scum, you're fine no matter what you do, even if you split votes. If they're both town, you're boned no matter what, whether you split votes or not. However, if one is town and one is scum, splitting votes is catastrophic. It's better to guess randomly and consolidate, because otherwise, one town has his vote on a townie, so scum wins.
This means that you should conslidate as Sloosh in this LYLO even if you think both Koshi and YKZ are scum! You can't be sure they're BOTH scum, so you want to remove the chance for scum to 100% screw you if one of them is town. Now, consolidate doesn't mean "vote for Koshi". It could mean "convince chez to vote for YKZ"... but no matter what, at the end of the day, you and the town need to be voting together, or 100% scum fucks you.
I wonder if I was the only one who realized this? Sloosh didn't seem to be paying attention at the end or respond much to me saying "why aren't you trying to convince chez"
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I knew it but was fine with it. In scum QT you see Release saying what you are saying during N4. Our biggest shot to win on D5 was to make SloOsh vote you.
I was impressed with your reads BH since D4 but also you should have let the scummers consolidate on themselves. Force Release on Koshi. Because just like SloOsh you are in theory not certain that Release is the scummer and not SloOsh. You should have pressured Release into voting me, just for that 1% chance that he is town.
Like I said, pretty impressive you were so certain he was scum, even though I am pretty sure I would also knew it if I were town  . Or willing to lose if it was Chez. And for effort to BH/SloOsh.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
slOosh was obv town because he had a long filter.
I chatted to Artanis at some point during the game (dunno when, wasn't really following) and I just browsed through a few filters
Opened slOosh's filter and it was 8 pages - slOosh is obviously town, he can't post that much as mafia
Opened Koshi's filter, it is 6 pages - less than slOosh. That makes Koshi mafia
Snickers' filter was annoying and Artanis said he claimed cop - town
Chez having a lot of fun + still doing things - town
Release's filter was very clinical, none of his usual town emotional impetus - mafia
Which made BH town by default.
I know activity is a super-lazy metric, but when you have a low-poster (slOosh) posting considerably more than a high-volume poster (Koshi), you should have really really really good reasons to say why Koshi isn't scum if you decide not to lynch him (there weren't)
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On July 02 2014 18:09 Koshi wrote:I knew it but was fine with it. In scum QT you see Release saying what you are saying during N4. Our biggest shot to win on D5 was to make SloOsh vote you. I was impressed with your reads BH since D4 but also you should have let the scummers consolidate on themselves. Force Release on Koshi. Because just like SloOsh you are in theory not certain that Release is the scummer and not SloOsh. You should have pressured Release into voting me, just for that 1% chance that he is town. Like I said, pretty impressive you were so certain he was scum, even though I am pretty sure I would also knew it if I were town . Or willing to lose if it was Chez. And for effort to BH/SloOsh.
Pressuring Release into voting you doesn't have any impact though. The only thing that has any impact is where the townie votes are at the end of the day. Like, if release vote was on you, then both you and he would just vote me on the end of the day.
I suppose it may have been worth it, but IMO it was fairly clear who the scum was. The real thing that convinced me Release was scum was my interactions with him during the day when VE was lynched, but it wasn't the kind of thing that would convince sloosh to vote him so I never shared it.
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On July 02 2014 18:21 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2014 18:09 Koshi wrote:I knew it but was fine with it. In scum QT you see Release saying what you are saying during N4. Our biggest shot to win on D5 was to make SloOsh vote you. I was impressed with your reads BH since D4 but also you should have let the scummers consolidate on themselves. Force Release on Koshi. Because just like SloOsh you are in theory not certain that Release is the scummer and not SloOsh. You should have pressured Release into voting me, just for that 1% chance that he is town. Like I said, pretty impressive you were so certain he was scum, even though I am pretty sure I would also knew it if I were town . Or willing to lose if it was Chez. And for effort to BH/SloOsh. Pressuring Release into voting you doesn't have any impact though. The only thing that has any impact is where the townie votes are at the end of the day. Like, if release vote was on you, then both you and he would just vote me on the end of the day. I suppose it may have been worth it, but IMO it was fairly clear who the scum was. The real thing that convinced me Release was scum was my interactions with him during the day when VE was lynched, but it wasn't the kind of thing that would convince sloosh to vote him so I never shared it.
Yes. I know in this case. But you are saying in your example that Town should consolidate on either Koshi/YKZ in case one of them is town. Which is true. But as townleader, you should make sure everybody consolidates on Koshi/YKZ, because you don't know who town is.
If it is x person lylo you need to have all x votes on somebody after 40 hours. Or 45 hours. Make it a policy. For 3 people lylo it is maybe different.
There was the same problem in the Order game I think. I didn't follow it after I died but sometimes I clicked on it and in Lylo you had 5 vs 4 wagon last day... How the fuck does that work unless you have all 5 townies on the 1 guy, ... Just change it in a 9-0 wagon. If you do that I think that in the process of getting to 9-0 you will feel if it is the right wagon.
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Anyway, I understand what you are saying and what I am saying is some idealistic view of how lylo should work because people like SloOsh are so tunneled that they have a hard time doing the optimal thing.
I just checked the Order game and 3 out of 4 scum were on the townwagon 5 hours before deadline. The 5 remaining townies managed to scatter between 4 different wagons before deadline. Hilariously bad.
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This is not a bad remark at SloOsh, it's just how solo vs coop works in a game of deceit.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Yeah but what I'm saying is even assuming that I'm scum sloosh' play is suboptimal. Like, if he thinks Koshi is town, then koshi is literally 100% dead when release comes back and votes him at the deadline. Sloosh's actions were not correct, even assuming a BH scumteam. Hell, even assuming a very high probability of a BH/Koshi scumtea, his play was not correct because if even one of us is town, that one dies at the deadline. The point isn't "idealistic view" it's "this plan is literally better than that plan in all situations no matter what"
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He didn't think that. He said Koshi / BH the entire time. Maybe his third scumread was Chez over Release? I remember SloOsh repeating that Release was 100% town. So in his eyes town already was divided between YKZ/Koshi. SloOsh voted with his biggest townread against his biggest scumread.
In his eyes nothing could go wrong except when I was town and it was Chez after all. But that chance was really small to him. But for that reason he asked me to vote you?
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On July 02 2014 18:55 Koshi wrote:
He didn't think that. He said Koshi / BH the entire time. Maybe his third scumread was Chez over Release? I remember SloOsh repeating that Release was 100% town. So in his eyes town already was divided between YKZ/Koshi. SloOsh voted with his biggest townread against his biggest scumread.
In his eyes nothing could go wrong except when I was town and it was Chez after all. But that chance was really small to him. But for that reason he asked me to vote you?
Eh, as long as that possibility existed he should have been yelling at chez to vote me over you. And it DID exist. In fact, even if you're 100% sure of a Koshi/BH scumteam, you have all the townies vote for just one of them, even if you're 100% sure of each one individually. The reason for this is that people are bad at measuring how certain they are at things. Experts who say they're 95% sure of something are only right about 70% of the time. You have to account for this error when you're 100% sure that Koshi/BH is the scumteam; you lynch one first, then the other.
He should have been yelling at Chez, not you, anyways.
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meh, bh/koshi couldn't have lynched anybody else than BH or Koshi
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On July 02 2014 20:05 Koshi wrote:
meh, bh/koshi couldn't have lynched anybody else than BH or Koshi
Right. This is accounted for in the original diagrams. Still objectively better to consolidate.
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Koshi not mad enough to be town.
Oh yeah also Release first post totes scum.
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So at the time of the final voteswitch, I had BH as "he HAS to be scum", and Koshi as "he probably is last scum", and then got super duper paranoid and thought "wait what if this is like D4 where I thought like that for Lazermonkey", which became "I should probably lynch YKZ to be safe here, in the chance that Chezinu could be scum".
Yes I was super tunneled and paranoid and it is probably true that I was just not going to listen to the most soundest of arguments, because I couldn't trust anyone. Like, from D1, the one thing I thought was "whether BH is scum or town, I can't trust him", because I found the Kenpachi thing and whatever just so messy and convoluted.'
I guess the thing that had most chance of convincing me would be something like "Koshi literally hasn't done anything for two cycles" and then quote where I said he is posting in World Cup Mafia just regular, or "Release should think Koshi is scum right? Then we should all vote Koshi". But again, my tunnel is strong as marv can attest.
Just my POV.
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Given a correct Koshi lynch, the game would be decided by whether scum would shoot me or not.
Same thing happened in ... uhh the one where rayn, Obviousone and ... someone was scum and I thought Oats was scum the whole game. Catch 22 Mafia? Yea that one. It was me OO (scum), Coag (town) at endgame. I tunneled super hard on Oats but scum shot him the final night.
On July 05 2013 13:25 slOosh wrote:
I think OO would have won straight out by shooting Coag instead of Oats, given that I was tunneling so hard. A large part of why I thought Adam was scum was that there was (from my POV), very little to explain D1 concerning OO bus, and I was pretty paranoid after back to back uncertain mislynches, and I thought that scum in your position (non DP voters) would have to eventually pull 1 mislynch off the DP voter pool to win.
So yes, shoot Coag -> I blind tunnel Oats into oblivion, and Oats probably counter vote me.
I only started listening to dead Adam once Oats died, which served as the trigger that he wished his death would be. After that it was pretty easy to sift through OO being scum (beside the setup spec which I was doubting till the end).
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On July 03 2014 01:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:Koshi not mad enough to be town. Oh yeah also Release first post totes scum.
Yea the reason why my last post I was trying to get people to vote release final day but said watch sloosh was because he acted like releases first post was amazingly good for town when it was such a fake case. Sloosh said something like "nice reading" when really releases reading was sloppy as hell
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EPT
