Newbie Mini Mafia LII
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Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: 1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either. So going off of this, The possible roles left are: Vanilla / Cop / Doctor / Roleblocker / Vigilante / Veteran Mafia Goon / Mafia Roleblocker / Mafia Godfather. I'd originally assumed when signing up it would be 3 Mafia (one of each role), with the remaining players split between the town roles randomly. Re-reading through the rules however, it reads to me as if there could be between 1 - 4 Mafia? | ||
Valenius
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On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf Is that from experience, or a (logical) guess? | ||
Valenius
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Valenius
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On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read. I'd agree with this point for the most part. However, lynching a lurker would become the best option (in my eyes) if the next 27hrs of discussion don't lead to a solid read on a scum. I'd imagine it's easier to read someone's behaviours later on if they've already been posting. | ||
Valenius
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Lord Tolkien: As in my last post, I agree (for the most part) with the lynching/no-lynching of lurkers. "2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use." I don't see how that has any relevance to the actual game, it stands out to me as being an odd comment to use when discussing someone's posting. Amiko: 1. Suggesting to lynch lurkers, and then naming the lurkers 02:45 after the thread started was weird. You said "I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started", but with 48-hour days if you're wanting to lynch lurkers you should be posting your list well into the second day. It add's absolutely nothing that early into Day 1.. my post was just saying I'm going to bed, that shouldn't be enough to get me off a lurker list. 2. Calling yourself town in your first post, again, seems off to me. If you're acting as town, people should form their own town opinion of you, which will be 100x stronger than a read formed by you claiming to be town in a first post. 3. I was going to add here about OneKing's criticism of the length of the post.. it's valid criticism, although in this case I feel like it's given some interesting talking points so i'll forgive it. Cavalinho: His (I presume?) explanation of only jumping on Amiko after the post by yourself was satisfactory to me, otherwise i'd be much more interested in the reasoning behind that.. Mafia Reads? Amiko / IAmRobik. Just a gut feeling on Robik. Town Reads? Lord Tolkein, and potentially OnceKing. No other strong reads yet. Also, you have to give me time to post.. The above post by me was posted before seeing your question (I went to make a coffee, and posted when I got back). I'm not a masssively quick poster, I like to go back and check, and recheck previous posts. | ||
Valenius
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On February 17 2014 10:07 Lord Tolkien wrote: Thank you for the reads. Looking back at that point of comment, it is indeed odd and I thank you for pointing it out. I blame lack of sleep. You don't have a strong read on Cavalinho I assume? Not particularly, although I'm unsure on the argument for not checking the active players. If some of the active players are in fact mafia, they could lead the game to a mafia win easier than I think the lurkers could. However, as with the lynching discussion, checking lurkers could be better due to getting better reads from those who are posting frequently. Mods, The Filters next to peoples names in the OP need updating to be looking at this thread, not the shadowed mafia one. | ||
Valenius
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On February 17 2014 10:15 OnceKing wrote: Alright, sorry for jumping down your throat lol Why is Lord Tolkien town to you if all you have to say about him is that you agree that a policy lynch on lurkers is stupid (it is) and that he's made an irrelevant post? Just a general feeling. None of my Town/Mafia reads are strong enough at this moment. LordT and yourself are just the two putting yourself in that category the most so far to me. | ||
Valenius
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Valenius
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My post more more just curiosity as to whether he's here lurking, or just completely afk. | ||
Valenius
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On February 18 2014 00:26 IAmRobik wrote: Pages 4 and 5: This post is super scummy: I would love to hear your reason for this. | ||
Valenius
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As for your post at the top of this page regarding setup (Id quote but mobile editting is hard), thats the exact sort of answer I was looking for. Im playing in a newbie game because I dont know how a completely vanilla game of forum mafia runs, why would you expect me to know that? | ||
Valenius
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On February 18 2014 03:50 OnceKing wrote: I would like to hear from everybody on the two big topics of today: Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien/Me. Valenius, you've been up and about! But you've almost completely avoided the topic of the argument between Lord Tolkien and me, what's up? And what do you make of these two situations? My last few posts have been trying to figure what exactly Robik's issues are with my posting so far. I've been honest in all of my posts, and although I can understand his views on the game setup questions, I was only seeking clarification (on whether I was mis-interpreting the rules). Whilst I feel the number of mafia does have a clear impact on the game as it progresses, I'm dropping that discussion for today. My main issue with his post at the top of page 10 is his comment on my posts only being random and uninteresting. I posted my reads at your request, and tried to contribute on the lynching lurkers issue. I've got a reasonable town feel for Cavalinho. As mentioned earlier, his defense of jumping onto Amiko was not perfect, but adequate enough to stop me hunting him for that. His general play to me has seemed townie, and would be generally going along with what i'd choose. His comment Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game. is one that I'm agreeing with at the moment. There's enough posts by the 'main' bunch so far to provide reads as the game progresses.I can't get a solid read on LT. As I put in my original reads, I thought you and LT were the most likely to be town at that point, but those were best guesses at the time. I still believe you're a reasonably safe town choice, and looking back the reckless voting on Amiko seems a bit scummy. (I missed this post the first time round) I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters. ##vote Amiko Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town I could understand this post coming sometime around now, if there was a lack of pressure on anyone else, but not really still in D1. Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros. ##vote IAmRobik | ||
Valenius
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##vote IAmRobik | ||
Valenius
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LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment. It's mostly your pushing on me after I was first to bring you up, and I'm not particularly fond of the way you called my posts useless, when your two first posts were incredibly short and added no value. I could understand that comment (more so, I'd still disagree about the uselessness) if it were coming who'd been contributing throughout the first few pages, but not from you at that stage. | ||
Valenius
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On February 18 2014 05:01 IAmRobik wrote: Why? They were useless. Any discussion of game mechanics is filler. It gives the illusion of providing content without actually doing it. People think "wow, this guy is talking about the game and trying to figure out what the setup is so that he can figure out the game" when in fact, it's just speculating on something that no one really needs to worry about at this point in order to look like you are contributing, instead of providing reads. You FINALLY provided some reads after 10 posts. Additionally, I'm fairly certain that Cavalinho was the first to ping me as suspicious Additionally, while my first post may not have contributed anything of value, my second posts and subsequent posts did. 6 or 7 posts if you're counting my comment on lynching policy, but I get your point. If you want to read them that way, okay, but as I've said before they were genuine questions, not meant for massive discussion points. | ||
Valenius
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Looking through your filter, I apologise. I pretty much ignored most of the first hour or two of random votes that lead nowhere. The 'first two' posts that i've been referring to are the On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing, That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? and On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf Not quite sure how I overlooked that. | ||
Valenius
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I'm heading to bed. I'm leaving my vote on Robik, if only because I don't have enough of a read to switch it with what's been said since. I don't think he'll be lynched tonight either way. Good luck for the next few hours, and I look forward to reading the outcomes in the morning. o/ | ||
Valenius
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First point: Wtf does OMGUS'ing mean? My read on IAmRobik: Robik, from my view came from pretty much nowhere. He’d had a very quiet game until mid-day 2. He then brings out that my first post (Good evening, I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!) was super scummy. Nobody else had even mentioned this post, the point was completely out of the blue. Following this, his read on theDragoon’s post (Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow) is that it’s the scummiest post in all of the pages so far. The early voting was pretty funny, nothing was really said there. It was started by a joke.. from Robik himself. The first posts, up until the face of george michael were pointless. The post’s of people just messing around at the start of day 1. To actively claim two of the scummiest posts in the whole thread were made around that sequence.. that’s a ridiculous read to be basing off of. His two previous posts’ (Serious posts, i’m ignoring his earlier ones) were On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing, That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? & On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf In my opinion pretty scummy. The first post in my view is akin to lighting a firework in a room, and running away. There was absolutely no follow up of any kind. The second post, dissuading my inquest into game setup (Note: Not role setup, game setup) was just dismissing my question. As i’ve stated since, my question wasn’t an aim to dig out roles of people, but to find out the Mafia/Town setup. I still disagree with those of you that say this isn’t important. 3 Mafia: If we mislynch tonight, we lose. 2 Mafia: There’s another day. Behaviour patterns. If you’re looking for 3 mafia, and trying to make connections between 3 players, and it turns out there’s only 2.. your whole analysis of player relations will be off.The same is true for the other situation. Next: His point on my posts only being about uninteresting stuff and game setup. I didn’t take part in the early mess of random accusations, partly due to timezone, partly due to not being a fan of it. As i’ve stated before (getting sick of typing this now), my questions were short and answerable with a one-line answer, with no more discussion related to the question needed. I’d probably have brought up my thoughts on 2 or 3 man mafia later into day 1, if i’d have gotten an answer. Maybe i should’ve ‘mod question’d’ the question. I do actually agree with his next point, regarding lynching for information. It’s a point i’ve expanded on further down. Again, his response to my question on game knowledge: He stated it’s standard forum mafia setup and his post read to me as if he was annoyed I didn’t understand that. I’d discussed other things at that stage (incl my reads), yet again brought me up for discussing game mechanics (2 posts..). Again, as i’ve stated above, not caring about how many mafia there are is reckless. His next point following on from n1k0’s post. On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins. This was posted less than an hour following n1k0’s post. As i’m writing this, it’s been 2hours 30 since the last post (Onceking’s Feb 18, 03:56). Time is almost irrelevant. It’s a stupid point, and to use that to suggest i’m definitely Mafia? None of you would have any issues with that were the situations reversed? + Show Spoiler [Read this in regards to underlined par…] + I’ve underlined the above section, as it was what I was originally going to post. However, having had another scan further down page 14.. I completely misread his ‘play’ for that post. Apologies Robik, that was on a different level than I was running at. If, going ahead we assume that Robik was indeed supermafiaplayer, his vote stayed on n1k0. Finally, my vote on Robik. I’ll admit, by the stage my vote went on I was already having a mafia vibe from Robik, and his following posts did little to dissuade that feeling. My ‘gut feeling’ was mostly what i’ve put into words above. I’ll apologise, but I tried to but this into words during the argument, but my brain was turning to mush. I couldn’t formulate words that accurately represented my reads. If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough. IAmRobik’s death: Robik, if you’re reading this: Sorry for misreading you. Come the end of the game, you’ll feel the same way about me! However, everyone else: Answer this honestly. I’m the only one to have a vote on Robik. Cavalinho had one earlier, but moved it away, leaving me as the sole-voter for Robik. If I were mafia, choosing to kill Robik would be almost suicidal. I haven’t played particularly well through Day 1, so having the same level of discussion (see above point re: gut feeling) would be akin to stabbing myself through the heart, after writing you a note confessing to being mafia. I like to think of myself as a reasonably smart guy, not the smartest, but enough to avoid stabbing myself through the heart. It’s something i’ve managed to avoid so far in my life. I don’t know who stands to benefit most from implicating me in the Death, but i’d probably choose to look at someone who’s stood in the back and let others accuse me Day2. Town read on Cavalinho: My read on Cavalinho was correct, as stated in my post.. Feb 18, 04:34 Other Thoughts: Tolkien, I really think the the suggestion of formal lynching is pretty scummy. In a face to face game it works fine, or if we had.. idk, week long day's it would be possible. Today for example, as much as I had planned for this week to be empty, unavoidable stuff crops up that delays me from posting for ~ 8 hours. In that time, unless anybody brings up another vote, as you suggested at the end of your post (multiple cases), it’s a ridiculously easy stall for the mafia.[spoiler = Post I'm referring to] On February 18 2014 12:32 Lord Tolkien wrote:I think at least we should agree to put an end to the OMGUS'ing, and adopt a formal system of lynching. We've got 24 hours, so we can definitely get it organized before tomorrow. If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes). We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps. Any objections, or amendments to make? [/spoiler]Tolkien turned suspicious based on Cavalinho’s analysis, which he had previously agreed with. See: Cavalinho’s Checking Strategy Post (Feb 17, 08:33). theDragoon had a solid town read on Cavalinho, which clearly turned out to be true. Solid enough to let it affect his judgement of n1k0. theDragoon also notes his suspicions of Lord Tolkien (Feb 18, 09:45), over his talk on specific blue roles. Note: My earlier comments about game setup were not role-directed, only total Mafia/Town numbers. I listed all of the possible roles in one of my posts, more as a confirmation to myself than a discussion point: I’ve made this defense several times so far, when questioned on it. Tolkien’s post following last night (Feb 19, 13:49). You stated that my vote on Robik was when no real case was brought up against me. Then, in your discussion on arguments with OnceKing you stated the issue you had were the multiple minor details he was bringing up ‘Grasping for straws’. This is the same reason which made me vote him. His original read on my scummy-ness was because I went to bed at 3:00am when the game started. Just wtf. Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post? N1k0 How on earth you’ve got away with posting as little as you have so far is beyond me. Your reads on both Cavalinho and IAmRobik were horrendously wrong. For record: Believed Cavalinho was the most likely red in the game. Believed IAmRobik was not a vanilla townie. My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. I also massively disagree with your assumption that Amiko is town, because of his driving conversation then fading away. Amiko received an enormous amount of pressure due to his early posts, it seems reasonably logical that he’d step out of the driving seat with that pressure. Could you please clarify the wording on this following quote? Are you referring to LT or OK, when saying your wrong? I presume OK, but it changes my read on that sentence. OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that i'm wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone. Still on n1k0. In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. N1k0, if you’re agreeing with his post you either didn't think the numbers through, or blindly thought he was posting something logical and went along with it. Either way, it’s pretty scummy. Tolkien. you’ve been reasonably smart throughout so far, did you not run the numbers? This and your much earlier carelessness for lynching Amiko “at this point it doesnt matter” are showing you as very lynch-happy. If you’re bluffing and hoping the “I’ll martyr myself” post for lynchings was a town move, it isn’t. I’m disappointed I didn’t pick up on it earlier. Amiko’s read on OnceKing’s dissatisfaction on Cavalinho’s response to pressure. I happen to agree with OnceKing’s post, so therefore disagree with Amiko’s assessment of the situation. OK’s other paragraph is also one that I agree with. N1k0 has barely contributed, Robik’s statement that he had was wierd. OnceKing. Whilst looking through your above post, it’s come to me that you’ve been ending a lot of your posts with questions deflecting away to other players, without massively answering them yourself. I believe your town at this stage, and you seem to have reasonable leads. You’re reading people better than I seem to be, so start posting hard-hitting questions directed at those people.. not just questions to the room. Beneather. You’ve posted two posts that have any relevance to the game. In my view, everything else you try to claim with regards to my lack of useful posting is invalid. Your ‘reads’ post is the most re-hashed post so far. You’ve done exactly what others have brought people up for; discussing specific roles. Everything in your accusation post (except specifics on Robik) could be turned back on yourself, and even amplified to say you’ve actually made no contributions at all. Top-Reads Mafia: N1k0, and then depending on 2 or 3 man mafia: Amiko/Beneather (In no order). Town: OnceKing, theDragoon. | ||
Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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If I'm lynched at the end of this day, and you've progressed nowhere on anyone else, I'm letting you know well in advance that you'll have wasted a day. Keep on me if you want, but don't let others get away scott-free. | ||
Valenius
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On February 20 2014 06:33 N1k0 wrote: Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious I would however like any form of back-up on this point. I feel like I've contributed spades more than Beneather. Am I alone in this thought? | ||
Valenius
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You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him? I answered this question in my previous post. If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough. | ||
Valenius
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On February 20 2014 07:39 N1k0 wrote: What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town? Are those the words that came out of my mouth? Let's run this through logically. Let's say i'm 50/50 town/mafia on both on LT and Amiko. (Probably slightly biased either side, but for this 50/50 is good enough.) I have what I believe to be a reasonable read on Cavalinho as Town. I have at the time a reasonably strong read on Robik as mafia. I believe enough in my read to leave it on Robik. If I had a stronger read on either of the other two, I switch it. Switching without having a significantly higher read on either side is me flipping a coin. Do you disagree? There's a 5 in 7 (or 4 in 7) chance that either of them are town. Those odds aren't good enough for me to flip that coin. Now, let's take a look at when the votes were actually made. At the time of my leaving this thread to sleep, which I made a post about, the votes were: cavalinho: (2) Amiko, N1k0 IAmRobik: (1) Valenius Lord Tolkien: (1) OnceKing Beneather: (0) theDragoon: (0) Amiko: (1) Lord Tolkien OnceKing: (1) N1k0: (1) cavalinho Still haven't voted: theDragoon, Beneather, IAmRobik At this point Cavalinho is set to be lynched Please remember to unvote after voting. The cycle ends in 0m 0s. PM me if you have any questions or if you see a vote out of place. At this time, switching my vote to either of my potential scum 'reads' changes nothing. | ||
Valenius
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##vote N1k0 | ||
Valenius
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On February 20 2014 08:18 N1k0 wrote: Sorry if you feel like i tried to put words in your mouth, i was confused of what your meant with your answer. Thanks for clearing that up. Probably worded too strongly on my part. Apologies! | ||
Valenius
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On February 20 2014 08:37 theDragoon wrote: @Valenius: So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post: + Show Spoiler + This post is super scummy: On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: Good evening I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit! He also said the same thing to me + Show Spoiler + Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction. Did you read the longer explanation at the top of my post? If you did and are still curious, ill respond in the morning. | ||
Valenius
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With regards to the vote numbers, youre right. Ive counted your vote on onceking (the numbers there) just not your name. It seems I misnoted cava's vote, but either way it still only brings amiko to 1 vote. (Please correct me here if you feel im wrong and ill take another look. Secondly, yes the double lynch situation put forward of lynching yourself, but only if we lynch onceking in the following day. | ||
Valenius
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N1k0, theres 3 of us with votes on you now, and you havent made any real solid defense.. whats with that? | ||
Valenius
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As before I wont be awake at vote time. Ill be Heading off 3ish hours before. Sucks, but not much I can do about that. As it stands, my vote is firmly on n1k0. | ||
Valenius
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1) Mafia are feeling safe because n1k0 is a mislynch, and that vote's almost sealed with this amount of activity. 2) Mafia don't have any faith in n1k0 avoiding a lynch, and are just distancing themselves from him. 3) They've emigrated to mars. I also have another (slightly reaching) theory. IF we have 3 mafia: There are currently 3 votes on n1k0, 1 vote on me, and 3 unaccounted for. If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg. I know it's an unlikely theory, but I think it should at least be considered. My question leading out from this is: theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed. Everyone else (incl OnceKing): What do you think about these above theories? Obviously the last one is very.. hypothetical. Just consider it. | ||
Valenius
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On February 21 2014 05:54 Beneather wrote: This is also a very good scum post. You are trying to put fear of the town losing if they do lynch you I like it! Scare town so they don't lynch mafia awesome ! You have one vote on you as of right now and you think it can simply change to you and are frightened by that chance. Why are you scared of being lynched? There is only one vote on you as of right now and you even brought up that it would be unlikely for it to be changed from n1k0 due to activity. I've got very little pressure on me compared to n1k0. If I'm mafia; I post a few opinions early on, and sit back and blend into the inactivity. I don't post, multiple times throughout the day when basically nobody else is. I'm the only one who posted for almost 1/4 of the day phase, There's no where I'd be willing to draw that sort of attention if I'm mafia. I'm not scared (I don't believe it's a possibility) of being lynched today, if it plays out as it is. If it plays out as it is, and the 3 missing votes are placed based on each of your reads; I believe n1k0 will be lynched. The whole point of my theory post was to discuss the things that may happen if the day doesn't play out as it currently is. That situation scares me, yet that situation is only possible if all 3 of the Mafia choose to vote on me. You're asking me why I'd be scared if all 3 of the Mafia are voting on me? What sort of a question is that?. If there are only 2 mafia, then this situation is not possible, and 1 vote on me doesn't worry me. Lastly, again: Do you really think I'd be making that sort of post (One that I knew would come under scrutiny based on earlier aggression against role/setup talk) if i'm trying to coast through the day? I have a mafia read on you, your post is not making that read more townie.. | ||
Valenius
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On February 21 2014 06:28 Amiko wrote: Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. Quick correction: I haven't voted for Beneather. My vote is on n1k0. I listed Beneather as one of my softer mafia reads. | ||
Valenius
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theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed. OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations? | ||
Valenius
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Feels good to lower mafia to one. I dont believe theres any possibility of 3, theyd have played out the theory I posted. | ||
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I won't expand much on these, but main thoughts heading into d3 are: theDragoon, why was your vote still on me? I realise my 'theory' was pretty unlikely, but you keeping your vote on me still gave that a chance. Why didn't you switch? N1k0's vote: Really, I don't think we can base too much off this. It's a complete chance pick between him throwing it on his mafia buddy, or choosing a random town. I'll look back through his filter to see if i see anything, but I wouldn't base too much off of this. However, the votes on n1k0: I feel OnceKing's line of thought on this is sound, people more reluctant/took longer to vote on n1k0 should be first priorities. | ||
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##vote Beneather | ||
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Also, bed for me. Night guys. | ||
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(If any of you dare try to pull me up for not only speaking about this game..) | ||
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On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. No idea. Mods, can doctor use the save on himself? | ||
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On February 22 2014 13:20 Amiko wrote: Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town? Go ahead. I've spent the last two hours looking through filters to try and find scum reads.. coming up with very little. Probably putting too much time into this game considering how it's gone~ | ||
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On February 25 2014 06:14 Amiko wrote: Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one- Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think. To be fair; he was dead and buried by that point anyway, no point wasting time on making a stronger case when he was providing no (reasonable) defence. Though your overarching point on re-reading posts is valid. | ||
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Dragoon; as much as it sucks to be played, don't let that influence your decision. Make it based on true reads, not based on how you'd feel after the game. I'd be pissed at you (or amiko) if you made your choice based on that. | ||
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On February 24 2014 15:19 Amiko wrote: Two quick points 1) There’s gotta be one mafia left. 2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop. Last night when I read this, I viewed it as a soft claim. If it was (you've since kinda proved it isn't), I could understand the post. It isn't, so it stands out as weird logic to me. There were 6 possible blue roles, of which we've lost one (OnceKing, Doctor). It makes no sense to think that its probable that one of the two remaining town players got picked as cop. I could understand if you'd have said "There's a chance", but probable? No. Could just be weird logic, not necessarily calling it a scummy play.. just wrong. As for your first point, lol. Cases I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up Yeah, that's a reasonable play. However, again it does strike me as a bit scummy that you said you'd only put a case on everyone so your vote is unknown, then later on (bottom of post) say you'll only draw up the other cases if you have time. I can understand time constraints (Timezone+Work where I cant post), but following your logic you shouldn't have put any cases up unless you were certain of time, or you had them all ready to go. Your cases, despite trying to hide reads will still give some indication on how you're feeling towards people. theDragoon Day 1: Voting for a blue? theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien. In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before). Yep, pretty much agree. I can understand his earlier reasoning, about it being lynch-protection, but the last line.. yeah: It's a bad play. In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT. I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best. Moving into day 2 Short Memory / Following the Scum? Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1. Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day. I'd disagree with your read of this post, but I still viw it as kinda scummy. To me, it seems to be him assessing the options. However, to base it off Beneather's post (you all know my thoughts on his posts) is stupid. His comment that n1k0 makes a decent argument for voting Cav is pretty flawed in my opinion. That post by n1k0 was one of the one's I picked on during my voting post on him. I don't think playing defensively means you're scum (see Cav/Me Day 1), it's just your mindset. Commenting on what good can come out of your own lynch (with regards to tolkien), I firmly disagree with, as i've stated several times to Tolkien. Lastly, The read on that I'd be paired with Beneather, based on his vote on me. His vote was pretty much nonsensical, considering it was based on him saying i've not contributed.. despite him not actually having any sort of post that adds any value whatsoever. Beneather never had a solid case on me day 1, that's why I didn't respond. The Choice Not Taken Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else. It's an odd one for me. I gave theDragoon an exceptionally easy switch of vote on to n1k0, yet he didn't take it. I provided a situation in which him switching his vote would draw almost no suspicion. Instead, he kept it on me. At that point, n1k0 was a sure lynch. I honestly can't tell right now if this is an incredibly scummy desperation play, or whether it's incredibly townie play. The desperation play would explain itself, but the incredibly townie play is not taking the easy switch and staying with your read. Really, it's a circular logic.. is he bluffing, is he not bluffing? I'm not going to focus on that much more for now, it'll annoy me too much. A Decent Argument theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297). Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0. You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516). You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum. You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) . What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy . Yup, pretty much the conclusion i drew above. OnceKing I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill. Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post: This suggests that theDragoon only noticed OnceKing's town play on day 2. We know he noticed after his scumpartner n1k0 was lynched, and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players. Past night 1, OnceKing's towniness was never really in question. it was reasonably obvious based on his posting that he was town. Based on his day 1, I'd say Once was going to be the target of a medic save if we had one (that wasn't himself). That'd explain the lack of kill attempt on him, and instead the kill on Robik (Sort of middle of the road between town/mafia based on the average consensus) NEXT POST ~ THAT ONLY TOOK 45 MINS, oh god, this is my whole evening isn't it. Tolkien Your post before the lynch (~7 hours before) was so obviously bait of some sort. Dude. On February 25 2014 11:57 theDragoon wrote: Some quick thoughts on the remaining players, just in case I don't survive the night. These are just quick notes based off reading through each person's filter. Amiko I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others. I agree with this, it's similar to my reasoning for not switching from Robik. My scumread was stronger than my townread, and swapping to any of the others was pure guesswork. He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred. Looking back, "I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened." was posted by Amiko well after both OnceKing and I had made our cases on n1k0. Once's argument seemed to be enough to sway everyone else on to n1k0, so this hesitation is kind of scummy to me. Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill. Can be scummy/townie, depending on how you look at it. I don't personally think night discussions are bad. N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former. Valenius Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case. Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this. I'm suprised the "Valenius bussed his teammate" argument hasn't really been brought up before now. Everyone was saying n1k0's red flip means im green. Obviously i'm fine with that, it means I have to spend less time defending myself and can have more time to review previous posts for reads. However, given my day 1 play.. which.. let's be honest wasn't particularly great (See: Misread on robik).. I would have had no where near enough confidence to try and take on the remaining days alone. If I were mafia, I'd not bus my teammate 18-hours into a 48-hour cycle, especially when only minor pressure had been brought on him at that point. The easy play there is to go for Beneather, and when he turns up green blame it on lack of solid reads due to his inactivity. That's a play i'd take all the time. (Note: My later read on beneather was based on his posts, not just activity). Tolkiens pre-death post.. On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, to present my thoughts for tonight. If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also). Yep, I don't disagree. Leaving myself, amiko and dragoon who are all reasonably suspicious alive is a higher % play for mafia. If you were alive, literally my whole day was going to be trying to figure out why. First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills. Done. Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing. I mentioned this above, however i'll try and expand on some of your specifics. In my mind, my case on n1k0 was pretty solid. Not 100%, but I had a 75% mafia feeling on him. The subsequent argument between myself and n1k0 only helped to confirm my read. I've mentioned before how I disagree with any post saying Beneather contributed more than I did day 1. Once then came in and posted his more eloquent views on n1k0, which helped sway some other votes (ty once, saved probably a lot of debating that day). As I mentioned above, I'm suprised it took anyone this long to really mention that voting n1k0 doesn't make me automatically town. In my mind, that doesn't clear anyone in that situation of being mafia. Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post. Again, I disagree. I think he just fell apart. He didn't have a good enough response to any of the arguments thrown by me to start with, never mind the summary by OnceKing. It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill. Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. As I've mentioned above.. my day 1 play was a bit shaky. I'm the only one who drew any sort of case (in my eyes, I realise others don't necessarily see it as one) on Robik, so to scum-kill him when i've made that case (that no one else agrees with) would be more pressure than I'd feel comfortable taking. If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it. If i'm reading this correctly, it's pretty much what my view is on dragoon's vote. It still could be a masterful play in that it's so blatantly obvious to stay on me, that it hides itself. Fuck, not touching this reasoning again. Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0. Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence). So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum. I've listed Amiko in my scum reads so far all game, however he's been sort of at the edge, less so than other reads (Robik/n1k0). theDragoon's been in my town list since the start of day 2, along with Once. This is despite him slightly-scum reading me, and voting on me. His reads were.. somewhat understandable based on my day 1 play. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to clear myself of those suspicions on me. I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p NEXT POST ~ food soon plz Amiko, you've asked a couple of questions so here gooooooooooooos. I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them: @Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia? Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon. The kill could also have been pushed by n1k0 though, it's not a 1 man team? (n1k0 listed as most scummy by robik.. maybe killing and hoping nobody really picks up on his list?) @Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day) Done. @Valenius: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them? As i've stated earlier, probably around 75% raising up to 100% after the following argument with n1k0. NEXXXXXXXXT LT and I both have the same theory regarding Valenius. When I wrote my pre-day 4 post I thought I was being a bit paranoid about Valenius. After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia. Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked. After n1k0's flip all the remaining players had a town read on Valenius, despite him being scrutinized pre-n1k0 flip for being scum. I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend. Night 1: IAmRobik Night 2: OnceKing Night 3: Lord Tolkien IAmRobik On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1. Come on, i've discussed my vote on him countless times over the last few days. Lord Tolkien agreed that my explanation for it was reasonable from my point of view, and that my reasoning for not switching had logic to it. "Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked." - It clearly didn't, please stop trying to portray me as if i was 100% town yesterday. Someone should've picked up that possibility of bussing yesterday (mentioned higher up zz) instead of giving me a free-ish pass. OnceKing He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them. Am I alone in thinking that my case and subsequent posts on n1k0 were a good case too? Despite being the first to really go on him, i've got very little credit (apart from the flip-reads) on the n1k0 kill. Lord Tolkien He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this: On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum. I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it. Lynch Amiko and win guys. If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko. I'm not sure if Amiko would be stupid enough to go for that, although it could be purely coincidence. As i stated right at the top, LT was the obvious obvious kill choice for last night. In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia. In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far. As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia. Read my above post, don't be mis-guided by thinking how you'd feel after the game. -.- Right, food time. | ||
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**** formattings wrong. too eager to press post. Guys, if you struggle to figure it out, let me know and i'll copy and reformat. cursed [quote] tags. | ||
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On February 26 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction. Valid point. Amiko, at the moment you're where my vote is going. Sleep time now for me. I'll try take a lunch break tomorrow to review any overnight (from my perspective) posts. | ||
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On February 26 2014 08:56 Amiko wrote: I started a post but I didn’t get through nearly as much as I was hoping. More coming once I’m home, but here’s a few things I can post to keep discussion going. Tolkien’s Scumbait Post I guess I figured there was a chance Tolkien’s night post was mafia bait given his phrasing - if Tolkien thought I was “definitely scum” then there’s no way he could see theDragoon as “maybe scum” (because there’s just one mafia left). The important post to me is Tolkien’s second so we’ll get to that. My Discussion of Cops This is something I didn’t want to address in my first post because of the possibility one of you two would claim cop but I’m fine with raising it now. Valenius mentions my reference to the cop here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20869986). My posts re: cop were just an attempt at either scumbaiting or trying to draw a bullet. I’ll explain both. First off, I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played a mafia game without some kind of investigation role, so I came into this game assuming there would be a cop. After OnceKing flipped as doctor and I felt there were almost certainly just two mafia, I really re-examined that assumption considering the numbers of the “automatic balance tester” (http://hamumu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263954). To explain, the numbers come out as follows: 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +5 = town favored 1 mafia goon (-6) and 1 godfather (-7) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +4 = town favored 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 6 vanilla town (+6) and 1 medic (+5) = 0 = balanced Based on those numbers I concluded damn, we probably have no cop. But, my post suggested that I felt there was probably a cop. This was to invite mafia to claim cop. If we had two people claim cop today, then the game becomes easier – since one would be lying, we’d essentially have a confirmed town (the non-cop). If one person claimed cop, the numbers would suggest to me that they were probably mafia faking the claim and expecting no counter claim (because no real cop is in the game). So, if either of you claimed cop, that would have been nice. Um… you can still claim it though :3 pls? Alternatively, my post might make mafia think I was cop. I didn’t think this was very likely because I feel my play doesn’t look like a cop… cop Amiko probably would have checked n1k0/Beneather/Valenius given my perception of them as potentially scummy lurkers who were unlikely to be killed by mafia. But, if mafia thought I might be cop, they might hit me and leave a town player who appeared more towny (Tolkien, potentially Valenius) alive. The post didn’t really give me any information but I can understand why my post seemed weird. I guess I could suggest it’s more scummy that Valenius raised the point (maybe he was considering killing me or claiming cop?) but that feels like weak grounds for a read. Night Kills theDragoon does mention that two of the people who had initially voted for me d1 were night killed (Tolkien and OnceKing). I guess that’s true, but they didn’t even vote for me so it feels like reaching that I would want to kill them for suspecting me d1. I don’t get any significant reads from the kill on OnceKing. From my point of view, he was an obvious kills for mafia at least because of his strong town play and because people perceived him as town. Tolkien feels somewhat similar to OnceKing – he’s also a strong town player who people perceived as town. I think we can get a little from his kill, though, because mafia is specifically looking at a LYLO situation. The weird think about these kills is that OnceKing didn’t get killed day 1. In other words, Robik’s death feels more significant because he was killed instead of another more town player (OnecKing). So, I’m going to focus a little more on the Robik kill. Kill on Robik First off, I’ll grant that IAmRobik was suspicious of confirmed scum n1k0, so there is some justification for killing him regardless of who last mafia is. 1) A mafia Amiko probably would not kill IAmRobik. I’ve referred to my “who could have saved Cavalinho” post a few times. I’ll grant that the case wasn’t strong, but think about how a mafia Amiko would see the game. Mafia Amiko had made a case using vote analysis on IAmRobik. Mafia Amiko could push on IAmRobik day 2 hoping to get another mislynch while also appearing more town (by being proactive). In reality, the target of my n1 pressure was killed, so I ended up feeling very unsure about day 2 because the two people I had pushed on (Cavalinho & Robik) had both died and flipped town, and I wasn’t satisfied with the responses we were getting. I’ll also note that n1k0 did start to backpack onto my points on Robik. Given that we had both just been the only two votes mislynching Cavalinho, it seems like drawing ourselves further together is just making us seem like an even more obvious team. I’ll grant there is probably some crazy WIFOM play where two mafia do the exact same thing, but that just seems like a lot of commitment for no reason… If I was mafia, I could have moved my vote off Cavalinho and gotten Tolkien lynched instead (he was the second to get two votes). I had raised a few points that made me seem him as mafia, so I think I would have had a legitimate reason to separate the mafia votes while getting a mislynch. Moreover, the mislynch would be among three people instead of just two, and I would have saved Cavalinho (who had indicated he thought I was town, even if he was a jerk about it). Based on that, I think (1) mafia Amiko would not kill IAmRobik and (2) an Amiko & n1k0 mafia team would link themselves so much when they don’t need to do so. 2) A mafia theDragoon probably wouldn’t kill Robik Tolkien mostly covers this, I have just a point to add below. I agree with the analysis here. The only thing to add to this is that theDragoon also has less reason to vote for Robik because Robik called him town (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820245). 3) A mafia Valenius would see Robik as a high priority kill I stress the high priority. Ending d1, I felt like ok, OnceKing will probably die because he presented as somewhat towny, got discussion going, and didn’t tunnel on a mislynch like I did. Tolkien’s discussion (above) provides one reason that separately from n1k0, Valenius would have seen Robik as the kill. In summary, Robik might just have been killed because he was calling out mafia n1k0. But, I still think that besides n1k0, theDragoon and I had reasons not to kill Robik, whereas Valenius had reasons to kill Robik. -- @Valenius and @theDragoon: Did you see OnceKing as a likely kill night 1? I gave one point regarding my day 2 activity in this post (why I wouldn’t kill Robik) but I’ll try to give you more defense of it in a later post if you see it as scummy Made the mistake of checking reddit and refreshing before turning off pc, so here goes. I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were. Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik. As for your directed question: As i put in my last meaty post, yes and no. Obviously viewing as if from a scum perspective: Yes: I know he's town, so he's proving himself to be a town leader straight off the bat. The average level of discussion in a newbie game is going to be lower, so I'd want to get rid of any potentially leading players early on. Pretty simple answer. No: He's a reasonably likely medic save, so that'd waste a night. | ||
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On February 26 2014 12:35 Amiko wrote: I think a few recent points Valenius have raised make no sense and I will highlight them here. I have a few comments to theDragoon also I’ll hit up next. Godfather This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game. The post by n1k0 wasn't today.. it was early in the game. Earlier in the game we had no idea if there was a cop. Hell, we had no idea if there were 0 blue roles, or several blue roles. How can you try and compare a slip-read of earlier in the game, and pretend it's a slip-read for today? That makes no sense whatsoever. Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment. You say this, yet you're saying that I'm most likely to be killing robik based on his read on me for night 1? Is Day1 that much different to night 1 in that regard? It doesn't have to be a desperation play, it could be a calculated play? Stick both on the same target, and if one get's caught then this defence is wheeled out? This bolded statement makes no sense. Of course mafia would want to kill someone who raised a case on them, particularly if they raised suspicions that were meritorious enough to require answering. The point is, Robik was a weird kill for night one. But, it makes a lot more sense if the scumteam is Robik & n1k0. Keep this in mind for the next point. I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response. Responding to this post actually made me groan. I thought to myself, that’s weird, I remember correcting someone on this exact point a day or two ago. So I looked up my post and it turns out Valenius I corrected you on this exact point earlier. IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly. Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night. Firstly, In the nicest way possible, get off your high horse. Don't even try to act indignant for having to answer something twice. I've answered multiple questions MULTIPLE times throughout this thread. The point I wan't to draw out of this.. IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly. In what universe does "I kinda like theDragoon's posts" equal reading him very strongly? I'm sorry if I'm being really dense here, but I can't understand where you got this conclusion from. Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night. He also had tolkien as more mafia than me. Don't try and pretend his reads were all-knowing. You gave me meat. So I made a sandwich A SCUM SANDWICH. (YOU ARE THE SCUM) (I HAD BREAD ALREADY) Offtopic: We need to stop talking about meat.. It's one of my colleagues leaving do's on Friday. After a day with no lunch break, the last thing you want to see is a menu drop into your inbox at 4pm, with this as the main picture.. http://i.imgur.com/kzXIlnH.jpg | ||
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On February 26 2014 12:52 Amiko wrote: theDragoon: [u]Night Posts[u] In this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20871762) you point out that I push for night actions and suggest perhaps Robik was killed because he was against night discussion. First off, just a gut answer - that seems to me like a really low priority reason for mafia to kill someone. Second, OnceKing got killed the same night he posted we should contribute at night, and he was killed the same night. Third, I still have a strong feeling that talking at night is good for town. I mean honestly, we tip mafia off to our reads during the day too. 24 hours of silence in the thread would suck. We've had almost 12 hours of inactivity before on a day phase, it wouldn't be that different! My feelings on this: Early on in the game, the reads aren't usually going to be strong enough to post conclusions that the rest of town can't draw themselves (either the next day, or following days). There's no real indication of who's going to be killed night 1, so the chance of you having to post your reads to try and steer town in the right directon is lower. The only time I'd flip on this, is if it's a cop who has a scum read, who's coming out. That needs to be as late as possible so it doesn't influence the kill. (This would obviously have to be day2/night2, unless it's a game where night0 actions take place. Last night however, although I disagree with the majority of tolkiens post, when it was almost a given that he would be dying if he's town, it's reasonable to post your thoughts. | ||
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On February 26 2014 13:48 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko That's a good point, but we need to add up all the info we can get from Robik's death to see if we can find something that can help us. Regarding contributing at night, I'm not for a silent night but giving out too much information or saying the wrong things can bite you in the ass later. -- If you read the posts during night 2, you can see that everyone except Beneather(doesn't really count) and OnceKing read Valenius as town. OnceKing already prepared his death bed with the big push on n1k0's lynch. If Valenius is mafia, OnceKing not giving him a town read is another reason he was killed. Valenius gains the most from OnceKing's death since the most influential town player at the time did not explicitly state that he had a town read on Valenius, even though everyone else did. Bolded the part: No. The mafia get's the most out of killing the most influential player. I feel you're probably looking at this angle a bit wrong. OnceKing didn't label me town, but i'm not the only one he hasn't labeled as town. In fact, the only one I can see being labeled as town by him day2 is Lord Tolkien. He hasn't played by labelling every single player. As for everyone else calling me town, I've already mentioned earlier today my views on that; It was reasonably naive to all 100% me based on that flip. Read further back to see my view more expanded. Anyway, Amiko: My vote's still falling on your side of the wall. If you want to ask me any more questions, I'll be online for the next ~4-5 hours then off for the night. | ||
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Your exact words for your read on n1k0's argument: N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. This could have been the plan all along? Vote Robik -> Implicate Me. Right. theDragoon, if you're mafia and you win.. fair play. You'll have completely fooled me. I have a stronger mafia read on Amiko, and i've tried combing through your filter.. but apart from the stuff posted over the last few pages (some by amiko), I really can't see anything more suspicious. I'm gonna be watching football (soccer for you guys) for a bit, but i'll be refreshing every few minutes. ##vote Amiko | ||
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Just to be clear, this is all meta argument. WE NOW know there is no cop, but n1k0 DIDNT. That's my whole point. I'm commenting on his post as it is at the time, with the information available at that point. Nobody had a flying clue if we had a cop. "With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose)." What? The roles were chosen randomly from the pool at the start. It's even stated in the first posts. (2nd post) "This is a semi-open set-up meaning that while all of the roles possible will be displayed the number of each role in game is unknown. " I don't know how the hosts choose roles, but I'd kinda doubt they'd interfere to specifically change a godfather to a goon. I could understand interference though if the rolling for roles brought up 8 cops and 1 godfather (shit would be funny though). "It is possible the setup could have a godfather without a cop – this might confuse mafia into assuming there is a cop at the beginning of the game, or it might confuse town into assuming there is a cop if someone flips godfather." I understand what you're saying here, but again i really disagree. The host should be as impartial as possible. Editing the setup to take out those roles could influence mafia play.. I don't think they'd do it. Of course, as you've said; It is a meta discussion; I just don't think your comment on my post is really relevant to the actual content of my post, and instead just dismissing it as wrong logic based on what we now know. Here we are talking about Valenius saying Robik never read theDragoon. Read my entire post, not just the first sentence. It goes on to say how I think it's odd based on his later listings of you below thedragoon, purely based on amount of reads. In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance. I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss. I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play. Ok. only real i'd like to look at here, is your comment that n1k0 responded with reads. Looking back, all of his posts post-suspicion on him were watery. It was a mix of other people's reads, and questions to try and deflect away from him. On your latest post; As I mentioned earlier, I really cannot see much scum on theDragoon and he's been in my town pile since before today. If theDragoon is mafia, and we both vote to lynch each other (as seems likely), then i'll apologise now in the same vein as in my last post: He completely played us, and let us argue amongst ourselves for more of today. Everything in your post is what i've been thinking, but really: I can't base my vote, or really anything off that post. I'm hope you'll understand the reasoning for that ~ I'm sure if I'd have posted that, your reaction would be the same. Also, you can tell my heads gone haha: I was going to say how n1k0 posted 6 minutes after you questioned him (noticed whilst looking through n1k0 filter).. double checked and it's 24hours and 6 minutes. doh. | ||
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On February 27 2014 05:31 Amiko wrote: I'm back from lunch Valenius don't go to sleep yet :x Still here for another few hours. | ||
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On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start I don't think I am, at least this doesn't feel like sleeping~ | ||
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On February 27 2014 06:14 Amiko wrote: Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip. Amiko.. several posts ago you said this: I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. These two are just a massive contradiction. | ||
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On February 27 2014 06:10 Amiko wrote: Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point. His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me. He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to. theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't. ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT Also copchecks / godfather Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game. Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person. I do agree on some of these, but if he assumes that we're (me & him) both voting on the mafia, then whilst there's reason to push, it's not as great as the push needed earlier imo. He's posted some on his reads.. it seems like more of a summary. The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you. | ||
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On February 27 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia? I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first. | ||
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On February 27 2014 06:35 Amiko wrote: I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1. Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going. The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me. That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play. | ||
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I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him. You mention you wanted to bait votes on to me, yet in your post-day explanation of that event you stated you were confident i was scum, with no mention of baits: On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right. What gives on that? | ||
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On February 27 2014 07:00 Amiko wrote: That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius. Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2. But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole). Sigh, you're making this too hard. I want to be asleep right now, tucked up in bed confident that i've got the right person, this is just leading to an anxious night ahead Okay. Your vote was on Cav first, then followed by n1k0. IF we're going by the assumption that you are both mafia, then it's either an attempt to stick together to distance yourselves through arguing you're close.. hopefully you get what i mean. My attempts at putting that eloquently failed. Option 2, it's a mis-coordianted play where n1k0 had no idea and blindly followed you. Option 3, you aren't scum. I'm looking through dragoon's filter again, and im pulling out a few things when viwing him as if he's confirmed scum.. whether thats right idk. | ||
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The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum. | ||
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On February 21 2014 02:40 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien As I stated previously, I have a slight scum read on N1k0, however I have a stronger scum read on Valenius, which is why I voted him. Also, until after I read OnceKing's case against N1k0, I didn't really notice how he mostly piggybacked onto other people's posts without contributing anything original and this does make him look very scummy. I can see that being poor town play and analytical skills or just straight up mafia play. If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3. Mod question: If Beneather doesn’t post and gets modkilled does he still get replaced? This is the post that I keep coming back to. Every time I've read it I've viewed it as very very townie, and just skipped past it. Looking at it closely, the thing that's standing out to me is the post time. It's at the stage where I believe n1k0 was basically dead, which i've tried to grill Amiko over regarding his vote during this period. It really is a very good covering-your-ass post, which is why i haven't properly looked at it before, and it's one of the reasons i put you in my town pile. However, looking at it purely as a scummy view, it pockets me and diverts attention away from yourself, whilst leaving me open as a lynch target. kk. i'm going to bed. Amiko: If you're scum, then truly well played. It may be that i'm actually just a really horrible mafia player, but if you're scum you've played this last day well enough to convince me that you're more townie than theDragoon at this stage. A lot of the early play you're right with, a lot of it is wifom, so it could be a really good play, or a chance coincidence. If you're town, then I hope you make the right decision, and you deserve all the plaudits for the win. theDragoon: If you're scum, then thank god. If you're town, then I am exceptionally sorry. I really am. ##unvote ##vote theDragoon | ||
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Amiko, if you do end up making the wrong decision, i wont hold blame you, although i'll be fuming on the inside. this last day has been impossible for me to play, been anxious to get the right vote for too long, it's draining. | ||
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" i wont hold blame you" = "i wont blame you" | ||
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Amiko with the bribes | ||
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