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Alright, since we're apparently getting into srs bzns the opening of Day 1,
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either.
2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy.
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote 
I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read.
That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up.
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On February 17 2014 05:59 Cavalinho wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:
I appreciate you explaining your reasoning somewhat - do you have a townread on OnceKing right now, or do you think you would have followed any other post that had brought up my post?
I think OnceKing's points are
1) Post is long
2) Criticism re: not playing before
3) Criticism re: claiming town
4) Criticism re: playtime
5) Inactives / not voting
I think I touched on a few of these in my last post, but let me ask this -
Regarding playing before, don't you think that is relevant to the game? Your last post even mentions that it is relevant this is a newbie game.
I still think it is scummy that you wanted to suggest voting me but decided not to until someone else did, first. This early in the game I think we should post our suspicions as they arise. I townread OnceKing, because he's posting his thoughts without fear. Hell, he even brought up what I wanted to bring up, so I see no point to view him as scum at this point if we think the exact same way. I see no point in scumreading anyone that shares the same viewpoint as I do about something so suspect and out of place so early. Any other post probably would have brought me around to vote you, had I not finally come out and made my suspicions clear before anyway. Also, you say it's scummy to suggest voting you but I should post my suspicion as it arises. How is it that I'm scummy for saying that I think you're scum? Should I just never vote on my suspicions? Should I just ignore my suspicions if someone else shares the same sentiment as I do? Your argument has holes in it and really only seems to be poking at the fact that I'm supposedly bandwagoning.
On February 17 2014 05:38 Cavalinho wrote:
Because, quite frankly, I wasn't sure if I should have pursued your post due to this actually being a newbie game. I wasn't sure if real players would actually think like that in a gametype that emphasize newness.
But since I'm not the only one that thinks it, then I'm going to roll with the fact that this is probably the right path to go down.
I don't think it is scummy that you voted for me
But, it is scummy that you said you wanted to suggest vote for me. You posted after mine, yet your post did not address mine at all. You only raised the point after someone else had voted, then bandwagoned without providing anything comments on my post or OnceKing's post.
It is scummy that your reason for not acting is that it is a newbie game. It seems to me there's all the more reason to raise suspicions in a game where players are inexperienced - we will not have as much skill making our own reads. It is worrying to me that you wouldn't raise a point just because someone else hasn't raised it - is that something you intend to keep doing in this game? My preference is that we all provide our scumreads ASAP.
Incidentally, you didn't respond to my comment regarding game experience. I think our experience playing/watching mafia is important. If you felt we wouldn't grasp your thoughts is that its a newbie game, clearly you also feel experience is relevant. I think opening posts should provide this information so we can evaluate each other with as much information as we can obtain.
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On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote:
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either.
So going off of this, The possible roles left are:
Vanilla / Cop / Doctor / Roleblocker / Vigilante / Veteran
Mafia Goon / Mafia Roleblocker / Mafia Godfather.
I'd originally assumed when signing up it would be 3 Mafia (one of each role), with the remaining players split between the town roles randomly. Re-reading through the rules however, it reads to me as if there could be between 1 - 4 Mafia?
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On February 17 2014 06:14 Valenius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote:
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either.
So going off of this, The possible roles left are: Vanilla / Cop / Doctor / Roleblocker / Vigilante / Veteran Mafia Goon / Mafia Roleblocker / Mafia Godfather. I'd originally assumed when signing up it would be 3 Mafia (one of each role), with the remaining players split between the town roles randomly. Re-reading through the rules however, it reads to me as if there could be between 1 - 4 Mafia?
Don't think there would be 4 mafia. That would be basically 1 mislynch and town loses. 1 mafia is too low threat and too easy for town. My guess is that it's more likely 2-3, probably trending towards 2.
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Let's not talk about roles
There are maximum 3 maf
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Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions:
If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out?
Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts:
1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads
2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
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edit: Also my bad mistake, my third question was
What do you think the other posts d1 contributed?
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On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote:Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that:
1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me)
2) you claimed town (uninteresting)
3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
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On February 17 2014 06:38 Amiko wrote:
edit: Also my bad mistake, my third question was
What do you think the other posts d1 contributed?
Basically, not really no.
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Uh, who CARES if any of us have prior experience in a different situation?
And why does this being a newbie game mean we should be more forgiving towards scummy posts? This will only let scum hide even more.
And now I'll respond to what Amiko wrote hopefully convincing others to put up their votes and cases:
On February 17 2014 05:34 Amiko wrote:
I think this early the only information we have is on ourselves - votes change too much to mean anything unless you give some kind of reasons for your actions. So I am glad to explain why I may vote for people (being idle) or the only town read I had at the time (Lord Tolkein asking about innocent child).
I don't like OneKing's reasoning for voting me, though - (1) you want to discourage long posts, which I think hurts town (2) you classify saying you are town as scumsided rather than neutral (3) you claim (probably joking) that you are clear, and (4) providing the time you shouldn't expect posts from me (morning MST) merely provides a time, I'm sure there are times you sleep/commute as well and I would like to know them so you don't have an excuse for silence down the line.
That said, I think OnceKing is acting slightly townsided because he has at least started some discussion by giving a reason for his vote, even if it is misguided.
Moving forward, I see Cavalinho's post as scummy -
Cavalinho, what were your reasons for wanting to lynch me? The same reasons as OnceKing, or is there anything else to add? If you wanted to suggest voting me, why not suggest it in your earlier post?
1) No. I am NOT discouraging long posts. *I* had a relatively long post. I am encouraging CONSTRUCTIVE posts, and discouraging people posting a bunch of crap and pretending that it's good just because of its length.
2) Completely and randomly out of place. What was the context of you saying this? Nothing, it was just... there. For no reason whatsoever, as compared to Cavalinho's statement that he was cleared or cleared people or whatever in the context of banter about being clear.
3) No
4) Ok yes this makes sense but I'm not convinced this isn't a reason you made up to justify your excuses.
Congrats, you're completely misinterpreting what I've said (points 1 and 2) or said something completely wrong (point 3). I'm only more convinced you're scum now.
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EBWOP: Oh and also regarding the bit about votes changing a lot -- my vote is sure as hell gonna stay on people I think are mafia.
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On February 17 2014 06:56 Lord Tolkien wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote:Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now.
He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy.
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
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On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 06:56 Lord Tolkien wrote:On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote:Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho. Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now. He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy. His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get.
Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever.
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I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip:
1) Die scum die
2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
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On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote:On February 17 2014 06:56 Lord Tolkien wrote:On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote:Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho. Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now. He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy. His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him. His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get. Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do. I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever.
Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game.
Lurking players are a different matter entirely. Depending on what Amiko flips, we can get a relatively solid gauge on whats going on.
Now, for the sake of argument, I'm going to walk through both scenarios.
A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue.
1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day.
2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather.
B) Amiko flips red.
1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves.
2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early.
Either way, cop checks should be carried out on the uncertains lurking in the background rather than the most outspoken players. Hell, even if we don't lynch Amiko today, I wouldn't want a cop check to be carried out on him for the sake that we can rely on him talking more than the other 4 players or so not saying much of anything.
I'm also putting a lot of emphasis on votelists because, even if we mislynch early, we can take a look at who's voting who and who is pushing what. If everyone on the chopping block for today's lynch is blue/green, we can look to the inactives as possible targets since no pressure was put on them throughout the day.
There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads.
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On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote:
Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
What do you think of the Amiko lynch and what are your reads on everyone involved?
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On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote:On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote:On February 17 2014 06:56 Lord Tolkien wrote:On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote:Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote:
OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho. Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now. He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy. His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him. His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get. Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do. I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever. Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game. Lurking players are a different matter entirely. Depending on what Amiko flips, we can get a relatively solid gauge on whats going on. Now, for the sake of argument, I'm going to walk through both scenarios. A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue. 1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day. 2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather. B) Amiko flips red. 1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves. 2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early. Either way, cop checks should be carried out on the uncertains lurking in the background rather than the most outspoken players. Hell, even if we don't lynch Amiko today, I wouldn't want a cop check to be carried out on him for the sake that we can rely on him talking more than the other 4 players or so not saying much of anything. I'm also putting a lot of emphasis on votelists because, even if we mislynch early, we can take a look at who's voting who and who is pushing what. If everyone on the chopping block for today's lynch is blue/green, we can look to the inactives as possible targets since no pressure was put on them throughout the day. There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads.
Fair enough, and that sounds about right.
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Just thought of something. The other option is if Amiko flips green or blue, and two of the (currently) three people advocating the lynch are red. Mafia will probably kill the non-red active player at night, and from what it currently stands, the two can lead the town into a self-lynching orgy. Also possible.
I'm leaning towards there being 2 mafia, but it's also possible that there's 3 (highly unlikely I think given only 9 players, but possible?). We'll see.
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On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip:
1) Die scum die
2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
What? Of course it matters man. Who do you think is scum?
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On February 17 2014 08:47 OnceKing wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip:
1) Die scum die
2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town What? Of course it matters man. Who do you think is scum?
Given the current information set I have (which is limited):
Amiko: moderately leaning scum, not entirely convinced but very possible and the most "scummy" looking we have atm
OnceKing: Leaning town or leaning Godfather at this point, I'd say the former, but the latter is certainly possible; does depend on how Amiko flips
Cavalinho: Also depends on how Amiko flips, either slight scum or moderate town; his current posts have me fairly slanted towards the latter
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
Beneather: slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~
Everyone else are lurkers I can't get a read on. Beneather falls in this category too. Either blues or reds most likely.
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EPT
