Newbie Mini Mafia XLVII

On September 04 2013 07:39 Umasi wrote:
yeah, it would be the same.

That said, we shouldn't ever plan to no lynch unless shit has either A: really hit the fan or B: we can win with jailkeep protects/doc protects/cop checks/something that you can logic out (see ....three games ago? with chromatically, where he singles out the SK as nightcat in such a pattern).

despite the last game you played with me, I really am a fan of lynching every day.

consider this situation last game, where it was stim/me/slam/deus
if we nolynched, I'd have shot stim.
we could have no lynched for more time, but that's also saying 'stim, your opinions are literally not worth acting upon.'

No lynching if everyone is equally scummy (for some reason) isn't as bad, but still *shrug*
lynching is the single power a vanilla townie has (which we all are in thread, btw), so no lynching to me is squandering that power.

On September 04 2013 08:13 Blurry wrote:


A couple more things, please don't use loaded questions. I don't want to kill townspeople, but I also think that the risk of doing so is necessary to inspire discussion. Why does it have to be obvious that someone is scum? We should go off our best hunch rather than waste time.

On September 04 2013 09:21 Umasi wrote:
Posting on shitty iPod ATM, hope it formats correctly. Why are we still talking about the benefits and disadvantages of no lynching? Policy is a good conversation starter, not a good subject of conversation. Heavens, that post is worthless. Absolutely irrelevant. Said nothing. Role playing is something I am increasingly losing patience for. At least pretend to have read the discussion. Holy flare is wrong but townie, null on info, ray is scummy, heavens is scummiest, blurry is null. Heavens is scummiest for his entrance, ray for being active but useless.

On September 04 2013 13:38 Blurry wrote:


Two things:

Scum read in retaliation to him questioning you is pretty suspicious. You aren't helping your case with that, especially because your analysis is flawed.

Aggression at the start is in no way indicative of scum, and if anything, is more a town indicator than anything, especially when he is leading the charge against a player.

It is really risky for scum to be so direct because it draws so much attention to them. Umasi is probably my biggest town read for that reason right now.

On September 04 2013 23:36 infii wrote:
I would also love to see more participation from the people with the lower post counts (of course including me), so I did dive a bit into the filters.
heavenz:


Considering the fact that the discussion about yes/no-lynch on D1 was already going on for about 1 hour at the time you posted this, why did you go ahead and claim it to be 'a bit of a discussion starter' with your second post?

myrzeth:


Yup... we need to hear more from you merzeth. What is your opinion on lynching the most inactive player on Day1?

Pharcyd:


His only post, though he stated before that he would have plenty of time to keep up with the thread. So why not also contribute to the discussion?

Chairman Ray:


Took part in the early discussion about Day1 lynch with 2 posts saying the exact same thing.
Also I disagree a bit with you here, because you don't have to actually execute the lynch to get people talking. A lynch threat is more than enough. Don’t you think lynching a less active townmember early on is a loss?
Because they could still improve on Day 2 for example.

Ok basically everyone listed above should step up and contribute to the discussion. You can start by answering my questions.


On another note:


Don’t you think the effect of a lynch threat will be reduced when you always have someone voted? If you want other players to know who you are targetting just write it in this thread for everyone to see.

On August 01 2013 20:42 infii wrote:
Ok, time to clarify things!

I'll do this in chronologic order.



That is not true. I said he should make a statement to get rid of all the suspicion he will get with that post. This is not an empty phrase!

Btw sc_a.M still did't take a stance to his first post, which raised a lot of suspicion from me but surprisingly went under everyone elses radar. He even defended reps with his second post. So if reps is scum, sc_a.M is also scum. The only other option I see here is that sc_a.M has information/proof that reps is town.

Then there were several posts which stated that I would be in favor of a no-lynch:



I never said I'm for a no-lynch. I'm just against random or premature votes on people.
Generally I want to look at a case from every possible angle before I judge, that may very well look neutral/scummy from the outside... until my first vote I guess. So please have a little bit more patience.




1. I think the general misunderstanding lies in the word neutral.
- Neutral as in not participating on the discussion is bad.
- Neutral as in shedding light on not-discussed topics on a strongly favored lynch candidate is good.

Neutral for town is not a bad thing imo, of course they have to agree on a lynch at some point. But I see neutrality at the start of day1 as a positive thing because there is so few information and you want to stretch your feelers in every possible direction to gather as much information as possible. Thus, being biased on a certain person/clue/statement hinders the information flow.

2. Well I have a full-time job and whenever I get a piece of free time I spend most of it catching up on all the new posts. e.g. today I'll head to a rehearsal straight after work and will get home maybe at 9-10 pm CET. I'm at work right now and shouldn't even take so much time to write this post... but whatever it's pretty fun!




In all honesty: that sounds pretty reasonable, although it was an agressive move.



I never said that I am going to lurk and wait. I will post as much as I possibly can and when I see it necessary.



Reading his latest posts I may have misjudged him. No real opinion on him atm.


Ok now on to the reps)squishy case:

If you read through his posts he is either newbie town in a helpless situation with almost no way out or he is scum trying desperately to stay alive. In any cases his argumentation is repetitive and overall not very convincing, therefore I agree that even if he is town he would be of little use and should be lynched.
OTOH he would still be more useful than StiMaDDict or sc_a.M.
Stimaddict was active early on and got super silent now, which could be because he doesn't want to get more attention or just is busy in real life atm.
sc_a.M literally made 2 posts until the second half of day1, which is poor at best. Those posts were contraproductive for town. That is why I will vote for him if he doesn't contribute/defend himself in the next hours.
But if it is necessary I will switch votes to reps before day1 ends.

Umasi:
He is pressing hard on reps atm. The way he confronts reps seems scummy to me and if reps turns out to be town he will definately be a big candidate for scum next day.

Alakaslam:
He is also on reps. But unlike Umasi he went on a more supportive approach, trying to help reps to defend himself. While reps is clearly in a dead end, there is no need to increase the pressure any more. That is a strong town sign because we should support each other as town.

On September 05 2013 00:54 infii wrote:



Still too early for conclusions.
The only thing I find noteworthy until now is Umasi's kinda-agressiveness and twisting words in others mouths, seems a bit scummy.

On September 04 2013 08:01 infii wrote:
Welcome everyone, good to be back again!

Similiar to the last game I won't be able to devote as much time to this game as I would like to for rl reasons.
I see we have some familiar faces from 2 games ago. I will try to discard my knowledge of your playstyles as much as I can to prevent a mis-judgement based on earlier behaviour.

This game I'll try a different approach, and although I know no one is will straight out believe a simple claim, I still think that the claim pins itself either consciously or sub-consciously in your memory.
So here goes: I'm town.

I'm excited to see how this day will fold out, so happy discussing everyone! I'm heading to bed right away and will see you tomorrow.

On September 04 2013 08:26 heavenz wrote:
Good evening fellow top agents. Let us rest old and dry cases and let this be our only concerne as it already runs blood red. Lynching is the righteous answere on the evildoings of the terrorists, so we shall lynch.

On September 04 2013 15:26 heavenz wrote:
Umasi, is very aggressive, which is a townlike nature, but beeing aggressive on the first day with everyone just getting into isn't a big feat, so that reduces my town read of him at the moment, at least he called me out for my opening post, which was indeed worthless, and thought to be just a bit of a discussion starter before I went to bed (I didn't think the game would actually start yesterday).

However Pharcyd3 also jumped on me with 1 post, 1 line, calling me out and then leaving the thread. At least equally scummy to my opening post, even more so that he just followed Umasi. There need to come more indeed.

Lord Velocity, I don't have to quote here much as every post says: he doesn't like to get attention and tries to behave neutral / hide

Holyflare is just doing his thing, posting much, but the content is mostly contentless. As he said himself, he is holding back his informations.

Blurry good townread opening posts, focussing on the discussion.

Chairman Ray, suspicious, or just weird? What is this about...

Killerdog, started out with a strong town post, but then just keept summing Umasi's and Holyf.'s conversation up. I want to have more than you just repeating and summing up the last 5 posts.

most Scum: Lord Velocity, Pharcyd3, Chairman Ray, Holyflare (until he stops holding back, which I assume will be on day 1, then we'll see.)
most Town: Blurry, Killerdog, Umasi

On September 04 2013 13:30 killerdog wrote:
This thread is growing much faster then i expected already lol, every time i think i've caught up, i refresh and theres another 10 posts waiting for me.

Not much seems to have happened so far, other then the prolonged discussion about whether to lynch or not, but heres what I've got so far.

First note, Umasi and holyflare seem to me to be the two players steering the conversation, they're the people who bring up new topics, or actively disagree with/try to change the public consensus on something. Also noted that they both mentioned having played with each other, infi and lonemeow, so they're definitely not first time players, and that's probably why they're being so much less timid then everyone else. Also infi didn't mention either of them or lonemeow in his one post, but this might just be because he seemed like he was just saying hi before he went to bed (from his one post, which didn't reference the current conversation at all).

Several people have only made one or two posts, with very little content.
Velocity, who several people seem to have jumped on already, as blurry said,


Heavenz made one post, which didn't say anything at all. I'm going to overlook that as him just being on the way to bed/about to go somewhere, however it's a bad first impression and he'll have to prove his worth actively when he gets back.

pharcyd3, who noone seems to have mentioned (at least before i started writing this essay :p) has only made a single post, and it was one sentence openly attacking heavenz. While having a useless first post can be excused as just dipping your toes in the water or something, he openly threw doubt on someone, said absolutely nothing else, then vanished. Just based off this he'd probably be my scum read.


It feels like two philosophies are clashing between Umasi and Holyflare, both have been incredibly vocal and assertive in terms of controlling the discussion, and haven't been at all afraid to take a stand. A lot of the (non lynch/sleep) discourse seems to have been basically those responding to each other and other people just agreeing with one or the other.

Personally I think given how there are many people who have said literally nothing of value so far, there hasn't been any reason for either Umasi or Holyflare to be this vocal/sure of themselves should they be scum, and because of how easy it could have been for them to calmly take the backseat and let people waste time, I wouldn't (currently) feel comfortable voting for either. If nothing else, I think a a vocal mafia is much better to keep until day 2 (and lynch him then) then a quiet townie who will stay quiet, because it gives a shitload of information. Although that doesn't mean I don't want Holyflare to clarify his position. He got a bit confrontational after (i think blurry) mentioned everyone just giving scum/town reads.

My current read is Holyflare and Umasi are both town, but both seem to have (subconsciously or not) tried to take on the "leadership" role of the townies, and seem to be clashing. (note i've been writing this for a while now and more stuff might have been said since i started. Umasi has been the most consistent though, starting off by discouraging people making "i am new" posts to avoid mislynches, and has been consistent in starting conversations which would force mafia to say things which might later come back to haunt them.

It's 6 am so I'm probably gonna go to sleep now, looking forward to seeing how the thread develops overnight, and hopefully my grammar/spelling will be better tomorrow and i wont ramble as much :p

On September 04 2013 20:14 heavenz wrote:
yes I am here, it bothers me that there are so many players inactive. On top of the inactive there are those I listed as suspicious (besides holyf.) who still need to answere.

Infis from what I' ve read last game, and from what he said pre game hasn't have much time but will must likly come out with a huge post at one point. Not sure how I can judge that then.

myrzeth hasn't said a single thing besides /in.

I would like to hear more from you, LoneMeow, what do you think about the remaining players, aside of Umasi / Holyf.

On September 04 2013 21:31 heavenz wrote:
He's active, his opinions are townlike, he studied Lord Velocity who behaved a little suspicious. He started a discussion to bring everyone to speak and voice their opinions.

That's more town than the most right now. Yes it could be fake, but in my book his action are town.

On September 04 2013 23:32 heavenz wrote:
I know what you mean, it's my first game as well. You act overly defensive as soon as someone talks about you, that's suspecious because if you're town you have nothing to hide. Also it's not a shitty town when someone asks questions, it's the job. That you don't think about yourself as suspecious is nice, but it doesn't mean that the others think the same. You are also in no danger to be lynched as not a single person voted for you. So man up a bit!

I agree with you too, we should hear more opinions.

On September 05 2013 17:58 heavenz wrote:
so firstly regarding me,

Umasis orignional opinion about me was :

then come Holyf. made me suspicious because I have him on my scum list but didn't press on.
My answere to that is that you're a) an active player b) you said you kept your reads to yourself for a given while
perhaps that was scum tactics to delay anything, but it sounded reasonable to me. I was just cuirous to see your reads on players, but I was expecting you to post them without me having to press them out of you (I am not sure I know how that works lol). Then you press on about my idle posts, that they are non-contributary. I don't know how you value contribuatry in this game, so I can't say anything to that. I was writing down what I thought in that moment, because it seems in my timezone was nothing happening.

What is interesting is however is that usami jumps on your post regarding me, on brings it one step further and immidiatly votes me, regardless of me having sleeping at that time and no news. It smells like a follow move, have you finally established total dominance?
He's falling in love with your analysis.

We have to give credit were credit is due, you weren't the first to go on me, his gut feeling can be explained as such:

True though is that the most charismatic player (Holyf) and the most aggressive player (Umasi) seem to dislike I.
So how can I defend my entrance post, it's not possible anymore, it was written. I adore roleplaying, and was surprise how I was shut down... we are agents after all, are we not... wtf. what ever.

ok continue with Bereft jumping following umasi on me, and make me look suspicious for
a) calling out the weird ray QT post
I saw that you asked, but I didn't really understand what it meant, so I hoped for a better explanation.
b)

the truth is, you're to complex for me to understand.
+ Show Spoiler +

I don't understand anything.

+ Show Spoiler +

This was not my reacting, even though I posted in the same way as you. I expected Holyf. to give reads before the night.

+ Show Spoiler +

Some "meta" stuff I don't understand. Calling out afk's, reasonable.

At write a 1 or 2 liner to everyplayer, without any actualy content or further explanations.

I can come to a conclusion,

likewise.

Regarding Lord Velocity I will say this, Umasi seems to belive he's town, and interpreting every word he says as a town newby mistake. In fact Lord Velocity seems to panic under pressure but bold after he felt Umasi shielding him. This could mean some things, either Lord Velocity is playing a wicked sick good noob, or he indeed is a town that can't deal with pressure for what eer reasons. We will see. (Lord V don't take this post attack right now :D, at the moment I am almost convinced, that edit thing was way over the top lol).

Regarding Holyf.

I am actually dissapointed by his analysis. He was given time without pressure, and all he comes up with is heavenz ain't much town coz his idle post sucks. Deep man.

You have some backstory on Infis we couldn't know and you play it out. Regarding Infis it's hard to have a opinion, coz his town play is very casual, I appreciate your efford to suspect him, as I appreciate your efford to suspect me, but I am still hoping for more.
I wrote you as scum because I don't see the purpose of most of your post yesterday. You were arguing about things I don't acknowldge as relating to the game, and give some smartass advice. Yes you played before, I get it.

you posted too much, but your typical day1 post looked like this
+ Show Spoiler +

glad you changed your mind.

+ Show Spoiler +

policies... what the fuck

then comes your 1 post, the one single post that has actual (this) game concerning content, in which you finally give some of your long waited reads. You come up with your background story on infi which makes him look more scummy and that regard me, that is all? You're trying to establish a pole position in this town without *actually* giving much? I think you're underestimating noobs,.. or not. I'll keep an eye on you.

On September 06 2013 01:10 killerdog wrote:


The chances of us getting a for sure mafia lynch night 1 are quite low though, in a 12 man set up we're allowed 3-4 mislynches, and using one to get rid of a lurker is, in my opinion, worth it.

I'm confused by your logic that "we shouldn't pressure him because he might say things which can save him." If he's mafia having him give some reads which are informative enough for us to want to lynch someone else instead is vastly preferable to lynching someone else but not getting those reads. Also by saying this, you've implied that you think him not giving any information at all even under threat of lynch is a town move, something i strongly disagree with.

Besides, if you don't want lynch him, that means you think town would benefit more from lynching someone else then they would from lynching him. Who do you think is the better lynch?



Maybe you can include it in your writeup.

On September 04 2013 07:36 Chairman Ray wrote:
Regardless of the math, a day 1 lynch as the norm gets people talking. No lynch = no incentive to give up information. Unless everyone is super cooperative and gives great information, we lynch.

On September 04 2013 08:16 Chairman Ray wrote:
A lynch on day 1 incentivizes people to avoid being the scummiest looking player since that player WILL be lynched
A possible no lynch on day 1 doesn't achieve this incentive since unless you completely crumble and blurt our something incriminating, then you don't get lynched

So under the first case, as long as every genuine townsperson is being very active and contributing, then mafia is forced to do the same. Even if we lynch a town on the first day, we're still on a good start. If not every genuine townsperson is active or contributing, lynching them isn't a big loss.

On September 05 2013 03:32 Chairman Ray wrote:


Since there's already been a few people suggesting they would rather no lynch than risk killing a quiet townie, then I'm gonna go ahead and say it: yes, there's a possibility of voting no lynch on first day. We threaten to lynch on the first day, and in the back of our minds we think about the option of no lynch. However the threat of a first day lynch no longer is a threat if people say it's just going to be a threat. By vocalizing that it's just a threat and we're actually allowing quiet people to live the first day, then the mafia will know that they have that option. So what we're all supposed to do is pretend that lynch is mandatory until the very end to make people think they need to talk, and then at the very end, we decide what's best.

Now that this info is out there, I think we should actually do mandatory lynch. myRZeth has not said anything yet, and if that keeps up, then I will definitely be voting him. Who's in agreement?

On September 04 2013 23:36 infii wrote:
I would also love to see more participation from the people with the lower post counts (of course including me), so I did dive a bit into the filters.
heavenz:


Considering the fact that the discussion about yes/no-lynch on D1 was already going on for about 1 hour at the time you posted this, why did you go ahead and claim it to be 'a bit of a discussion starter' with your second post?

myrzeth:


Yup... we need to hear more from you merzeth. What is your opinion on lynching the most inactive player on Day1?

Pharcyd:


His only post, though he stated before that he would have plenty of time to keep up with the thread. So why not also contribute to the discussion?

Chairman Ray:


Took part in the early discussion about Day1 lynch with 2 posts saying the exact same thing.
Also I disagree a bit with you here, because you don't have to actually execute the lynch to get people talking. A lynch threat is more than enough. Don’t you think lynching a less active townmember early on is a loss?
Because they could still improve on Day 2 for example.

Ok basically everyone listed above should step up and contribute to the discussion. You can start by answering my questions.


On another note:


Don’t you think the effect of a lynch threat will be reduced when you always have someone voted? If you want other players to know who you are targetting just write it in this thread for everyone to see.

On September 05 2013 04:03 Chairman Ray wrote:


I am currently working on my scum reads right now, and will post them in a sec.

As for Umasi/HolyFlare, one of the best scum tactics is to have two scum ragging on each other the first day. It monopolizes the discussion preventing productive town discourse, paints them both as very pro town, and in the case that one of them turns mafia, there's a strong argument for the other one being town. Because of this, I am not willing to read them both as town. Right now, there's a possibility of both being scum, both being town, or one being mafia, so lynching one will not give us ANY headway, I say keep them both alive on day 1. Based on who gets lynched and who gets killed by mafia, we may be able to eliminate one of the possibilities.

On September 05 2013 06:07 Chairman Ray wrote:


My intention was not to suggest ignoring the entire discussion. My intention was two things: firstly, to the few people suggesting that either you or Holy may be town (or both), I disagree completely and I would like to consider both of you just as much as everyone else. Secondly, your discussion with HolyFlare and everyone else set up a lot of variables and a few equations. This is the best thing to carry into the second round since we have almost enough information to deduce pairs of people who cannot both be mafia. This is why I'm suggesting lynching either you or holyflare first turn is unproductive for town.

I will give my first set of reads. When HolyFlare said that he was withholding his reads, he dug himself an obligation. By the end of this day, he must make a play justifying that he withheld his reads with good reason, or else he's mafia. If we see his posts and decide that there's no reason why he didn't give his reads in the first place, I think he's a good mafia candidate. When you started attacking HolyFlare and threw in a vote, I don't think at that point there was any good indication that HolyFlare is mafia. I think that either both of you are mafia, in which case the discourse was counterproductive for town because you misled everyone, or you are town, in which case you were both pressuring HolyFlare and seeing who would ride the lynch train. This gives me a reason to ease up on the possibility that you are mafia and HolyFlare is town.

On September 05 2013 07:48 Chairman Ray wrote:


Irrelevant post? Fixing keyboard? How do these two things even relate?

Did anyone see the post before it was edited?

I actually think we had a slipup.

#vote Lord Velocity

What was the post before you edited?

On September 07 2013 17:22 heavenz wrote:
Okay, firstly, Blurry, I am sorry I thought you were not town. You are a swiss man by the book. I wish someone had responded to me on the agression I put on Blurry before the night. I feel like I understand nothing now.

Things to consider: Holyf. case on Ray, Infi's case, Voting behavior,

There is one thing I didn't realize in the situation:

Holyf.'s endnote in the post where he makes a case vs infi and me.



In another post.

Obviously Holyf. had Ray on his suspicious list for a long time. But he didn't not make a post against him or pressure him until the very end of day1.

This his Holyf. case against Ray

+ Show Spoiler +

Summary in my words. Holyf. points out the discrepantcy in Ray words, where first he stats the opinion that lynching on day1 can be a mistake three times, and then states in a complex "what if" his thoughts about umasi and holyf.

His (Ray) post about Umasi and Holyf discussion


So what we see this post from Ray, Holyf. says that this is nothing of value. Ray attacks Holyf. with his words/english (I am not native, I wouldn't say things in such a complicated way). Holyf. notes it but doesn't amplify on it until the very end.

He might have truthfully thought that Ray was scum, even more so than he thought about infi's and me (and only sidenoted him as scum, while we got the cases), and that's why he didn't make a case against him earlier but in last second to set him under way higher pressure.
----
I must admit that in the last time before the vote I didn't see things like that. Mostly with the death of Blurry I realize how easy it is to make a wrong judgement, and stand there like a stupid lol. I suspected too many players and trusted no one, but the chances that someone is town are still higher than beeing mafia, we are more after all. Holyf. made a case against someone and made it went with it balls deep, that this person slipped town almost makes him more town to me that if it had been scum. His reasoning wasn't just a short burst and sudden idea like I thought at first.
What makes me curious however that he seems to list those players the highest on suspicion who suspect / doubt him, namly Ray, Infis, Me.

Please answere me on this Holyf.

Infi

In general if he would post three times more I would straight up say town, I am d'accore with his reasoning.

Here's his last post regarding the Ray case


I have come to a somewhat different conclusion, I ask you please give your thoughts about it too.



Alright, please don't be afk then and show us the "facts at hand".

I have no existent scum list at the moment, and my judgment will on infis will wait for:


Well voting behavior is kinda core :D
But it's a big topic, so I will delay this for now


Further things I plan to write on in the future: Umasi (omg, what a topic...) and Blurry's death.

I think today is the time for working to togehter and getting clues and not the time for suspicious.

On September 04 2013 08:04 Blurry wrote:


You get a lot more out of lynching than just the player dead, you also get loads of information on everybody and is one of the best ways to have the scum reveal themselves. Bandwagoning, Fence Sitting, Caving under pressure are some of the best ways to spot the scum and these are revealed when you lynch a player day 1.

Since its plurality vote anyway, I'm going to be lynching somebody no matter what day 1, so now that the decision to lynch is taken out of your hands you better come up with some scum reads to not waste this day and reduce the chances of a mislynch.

On September 04 2013 08:13 Blurry wrote:


A couple more things, please don't use loaded questions. I don't want to kill townspeople, but I also think that the risk of doing so is necessary to inspire discussion. Why does it have to be obvious that someone is scum? We should go off our best hunch rather than waste time.

On September 04 2013 12:20 Umasi wrote:
I am around to talk to, class finished and I'm at my computer.

Why not?

he was like 'oh hoh hoh this is a clever way to catch scum'
or he's a troll.
or he's legitimately confused by how this game is played.



strongest town read:You for asking this question and trying to talk about something productive.
strongest scum read: vel, for calling me out as town and ignoring the other parts of my reads post, it feels like he thought I was a threat to be appeased. I also am leery of heavenz for ignoring the discussion.

On September 04 2013 15:26 heavenz wrote:
Umasi, is very aggressive, which is a townlike nature, but beeing aggressive on the first day with everyone just getting into isn't a big feat, so that reduces my town read of him at the moment, at least he called me out for my opening post, which was indeed worthless, and thought to be just a bit of a discussion starter before I went to bed (I didn't think the game would actually start yesterday).

However Pharcyd3 also jumped on me with 1 post, 1 line, calling me out and then leaving the thread. At least equally scummy to my opening post, even more so that he just followed Umasi. There need to come more indeed.

Lord Velocity, I don't have to quote here much as every post says: he doesn't like to get attention and tries to behave neutral / hide

Holyflare is just doing his thing, posting much, but the content is mostly contentless. As he said himself, he is holding back his informations.

Blurry good townread opening posts, focussing on the discussion.

Chairman Ray, suspicious, or just weird? What is this about...

Killerdog, started out with a strong town post, but then just keept summing Umasi's and Holyf.'s conversation up. I want to have more than you just repeating and summing up the last 5 posts.

most Scum: Lord Velocity, Pharcyd3, Chairman Ray, Holyflare (until he stops holding back, which I assume will be on day 1, then we'll see.)
most Town: Blurry, Killerdog, Umasi

On September 04 2013 21:31 heavenz wrote:
He's active, his opinions are townlike, he studied Lord Velocity who behaved a little suspicious. He started a discussion to bring everyone to speak and voice their opinions.

That's more town than the most right now. Yes it could be fake, but in my book his action are town.

On September 06 2013 06:28 heavenz wrote:
I am still thinking that myrezth is a good target for a 1st day lynch. He is most of all a safe bet. Yes he might be town, but he's a counterproductive town, it's like with an employe, yes it's one employe more, but it's the one who's distracting the others from their work. Most of all he shows no willingness to learn.

Ofcourse I would rather vote mafia on day1 but unless I have some sort of understanding a better bet, I go with myrezth.

LV is a curious case, he loves umasi / holyf. and ignores everything what everyone else says and just tries to impress them. Chairman I kinda like your work or idea you had, and I am can't agree at the moment with holyf.'s case on you. Bereft and Blurry are both equally neutral, Blurry even acknowledged his neutrality, but tried to satisfy me by agree with me. No bro.

I have not come to a conclusion yet, damn my mind.

On September 05 2013 03:48 killerdog wrote:
ok here are my current reads/opinions on people.


umasi
-He was one of my original town reads, and hasn't been afraid of the limelight/stepping on peoples toes. I really liked his first post in that he pointed out that making "i am new" posts just serves to give people more ammunition to throw suspicion on random people, and potentially saved us from being in a situation where 4-5 people read really scummy just off their first post, which could have derailed town a lot and let mafia with decent first posts hide easily.)


He was vocal about wanting to move on from the lynch/nolynch debate (which seems fair) and he put the original pressure on velocity. But then decided to pounce on holyflare. Whether that was a good decision or not I don't know but he comitted to it pretty hard, other then one post at velocity, he's focussed 100% on holyflare from that point on.

He also poked chairman ray for a bit of information earlier on.

I still think he's town, but given how willing he was to pressure that hard against holyflare, I would be hesitant to centre any kind of town circle around him. I would much rather have someone more passive/gentle like blurry helping guide the discussion because if we just pressure every mistake too hard, people will get intimidated and afraid of posting, and we risk tunell visioning away from more subtle scummy behaviour.

Also worth noting that he and holyflare have played before, where (as far as i can tell) Umasi was scum and Holyflare played a good town town. I don't know if the events of that game have had any effect on the decisions either Umasi or Holyflare have made this game, since they brought it up in their first posts, it might as well be mentioned.


infii
-Didn't say much of anything yesterday, but thats understandable because timezones.
He made a post today basically calling out the people who haven't been posting much, other then that he's one of the first people (other then velocity) to suggest Umasi isn't playing pro town.

The only read i've been able to infer (other then the inactives) is that he's a bit suspicious of Umasi/maybe looking to disntance himself from umasi. First he voices a disagreement with Umasi's policy of keeping a vote on his suspect, the says



He hasn't really contributed anything other then that, and it sticks out a bit that pretty much the only thing he's done is knock on other people for not doing enough. on the whole a pretty neutral read so far.



heavenz
-First post wasn't really anything, I believe he was saying hi before going to bed. His post with his reads is pretty intereseting, and i agree with most of them. I'm interested by the fact he has holyflare on his scum list (although i agree that holy has been being a bit uncooperative) as most people other then umasi seem to have read him as town so far. I've written this before holy's section, so we'll see if i change my mind on holyflare after going through holyflares filter again.

Don't have much of a read on him, but he's contributed and seems much townier then some of the people so far.


myRzeth
-Still hasn't postsed, apparently he's in germany so I would expect him to post, at the latest, this evening. Otherwise he'll need to have a good excuse.


Bereft
-Not got much on him, he was supportive of blurry's move to just out reads to get things going, and he was also disagreeing with Holyflare when it came to Holyflares decision to withhold his reads. However while Umasi took this as a queue to pounce on holyflare, Bereft seemed pacified by holyflare posting this:


and backed off hard, called for people who haven't psoted yet to post and dissapear.

Don't have much of a read on him either way either.



Pharcyd3
-By far the most suspicious person so far in my opinion. To reiterate what I said, his one post is just attacking heavenz for his first post, irony of that aside, doing that and then dissapearing is really scummy in my opinion.
The reason I'm so suspicious of him is I'm having a hard time visualising a situation where he's town and acts like this. If he's in a hurry and didn't have time to read the thread then randomly throwing accusations at someone without having read the thread yet is either really bad town, or plain scum. If we assume that he wasn't just randomly throwing accusations around without reading the thread fully. If he had time to read the thread, why didn't he have the extra minute or two it would have taken to address any of the topics being discussed, I don't see a townie thinking it's ok to throw suspicions on someone, ignoring the current conversation, then disappear.

I also found it interesting that so many people picked up on velocity's post, but so few noticed pharcyd3's. For the record here are the people who posted after pharcyd3's post but didn't mention it until I fingered him in my first post. HolyFlare, Blurry (references velocity), Bereft (references velocity), Umasi (references velocity)
Note bereft did say just before i posted

so he might have just missed it.



HolyFlare
-Holyflare seems to be involved in everything, early on he was very much in control of the flow of debate, bringing up sleeping n1, then not being afraid of disagreeing with people. However once Blurry suggested sharing reads he pretty defensive/confrontational.

Regardless of his orientation, to me he feels like a rather charismatic player who doesn't want to just scrape by being passive and answering questions, but rather wants to be one fo the people in the driving seat, and that might be why he reacted to blurry taking the initiative like he did. There were three people who stood out to me as pressuring him on his refusal to share reads.
-Bereft, who seemed to be satisfied by holyflares response,
-Blurry, most of blurry's posts seem to be things holyflare disagreed with, or vice versa
-Umasi, who ended up going hard on holyflare.

To be honest I'm having a hard time getting any kind of read off of him. He's stated that his style is "asking off the cuff questions about posts" to catch people off guard. Something he's been consistent in doing. He also didn't seem to change his posting style, or go super defensive when umasi voted for him.


He's talking alot (most posts of anyone i think) and doing a good job asking questions but the way he reacted to being asked for reads was a bit dereailing and very uncooperative. He hasn't really given any evidence to prove himself town so far. He's talking a ton about the over all "metagame" of mafia, and a lot about mafia tactics in general but basically nothing relevant to this game itself. It takes more then asking other people questions to prove yourself a townie, and refusing to give any analysis on the other players at all, while still expecting people to answer all your questions is asking for a lot.

Still very much on the fence about him and I'm starting to regret interrupting Usami when i did.


Lord Velocity
-Originally I felt people were sort of ganging up on velocity without any real case. He made a first post which didn't say much other then give a "gut feeling" and, true, he was asked for reads by umasi and didn't answer the question before leaving the thread for a while, but considering that pharcyd3 made an at least equally suspicious post 12 minutes later, and that got totally ignored, the number of people putting velocity on their lists seemed a bit high.

However after reading his defensive posts, I'm a lot more suspicious of him now. He called scum on Umasi based on

Which feels a lot like just counter accusations rather then a justified read, just stating what happened rather then saying why you thought the actions were scummy isn't very watertight.

This

Also felt like a bit of an overreaction given the amount of pressure he was under at the time.

He might just be a townie who wasn't expecting pressure and overreacted though.
Not sure on him, but he's on the scummier end of the spectrum out the the players who have posted more then a paragraph or two. Hopefully he will start volunteering some information himself without any more pressure.




Chairman Ray
-Hasn't been very active yet,

This one post is a huge elephant in the room when it comes to him


The way he phrased it makes it seem unlikely that he's mafia slipping up.
As someone else said, he might have been trying to trip up a mafia, or just screwing around, but I would very much like him to go on record saying why he posted this just so it's dealt with and doesn't cause misunderstandings later.

Other then that he hasn't said much other encouraging threatening to lynch people which seems logical enough.

Not enough content for a read though, hope he posts more tonight.


LoneMeow
-Hasn't said much content wise, although i do agree with his statement that Umasi/Holyflare argument seems a bit town v town. He seems to have popped in at a time when the thread was relatively inactive, and posed questions to a few people. He hasn't pointed out much which hasn't already been said though.



Blurry
-As i mentioned in an earlier post, Blurry was disagreeing with holyflare on several points over several different posts. Infact his first 5 posts are all either voicing a differing opinion to holyf, or straight up quoting him and disagreeing. He then brought up the topic of just sharing reads to promote discussion, which holyf refused to do (which then set umasi off.)

I don't know if this is one of them trying to distance themselves from the other, or one getting some kind of read off of the other, (or indeed just a side effect of them being two of the more active players during that time period) but as it's pretty much all Blurry has done I feel it's relevant.

He's also spared two posts to help explain a few things to velocity, from those two i would say he seems to think velocity is just town who overreacted to a bit of pressure, regardless of why he did it though, I think explaining why he was under suspicion is a pro town move, as mafia would probably want to let him just talk himself into a lynch rather then try and help him. I also liked how he helped move the discussion along on day 1 by calling for reads.

One of the townier players imo.

On September 06 2013 00:30 killerdog wrote:


I thought I sort of did that in the long post I made while ago, but it might have been a bit hard to find because the post got a bit bloated :p

I'll just put players in an abridged list of reads, in vague town to mafia order

Town-
Killerdog: (fuck yeah)
Umasi: + Show Spoiler +
Blurry: + Show Spoiler +
Holyflare: + Show Spoiler +
it gets a bit fuzzier here
Lord Velocity: + Show Spoiler +
Bereft: + Show Spoiler +
Lonemeow: + Show Spoiler +
Heavenz: + Show Spoiler +
Infii: + Show Spoiler +
Chairman ray: + Show Spoiler +
Pharcyd3: + Show Spoiler +
myrzeth: + Show Spoiler +

On September 05 2013 09:47 Lord Velocity wrote:
Umasi to me is more on the town side of things and Holy in the middle. Bereft on the more scummy parts of things with Blurry neutral.I haven't heard much else from them since so I think it's safe to think about lynching either Myrz, or Pharcyd, because I don't know how the mod killing thing REALLY works. But yea unless they respond I'm pretty sure they're safe lynches.

On September 05 2013 13:55 Lord Velocity wrote:
One more thing, I'm sorry if this is quite contradicting to the "Deflect suspicion" thing but I've noticed that Bereft has backed up Blurry with utter confidence and Vice Versa. Now I will go to bed, See you all in the morning

On September 05 2013 22:56 Lord Velocity wrote:
Okay so I have to rush this a littlebit? I have to go to school and won'tbe here for the end of the night. So I would like to say that my read on Umasi I think was posted, but if not it's the same to Killers a little, they both provided major information leading us in the right direction on others, Holy still stands neutral as I said, I'm a little sketchy onBlurry andBereft because they come in, disregard everything said, and focus on everything that's happened like 5(or like 8) pages ago and don't bother trying to clear their names on some peoples list, as they have also got some sort of "Blurry said something, he's right." Or vice versa with bereft. But I won't be around to the end of the lynching phase so I'm sorry. I also do'nt think I'm a smart vote as I have 2 right now, so I think that might stay the same,but I will be voting for Bereft or Heavenz. Thank you, see you all later.

On September 05 2013 08:51 Holyflare wrote:
*sigh* Even if I have suspicions on Umasi, which I most definitely do, I think there are other more valuable lynch targets today that I'd rather focus on and i'm not sure you'd be convinced on a case against him seeing as most of you seem sold that he is town.
Either way the people that I think are the most lynch worth today fall into 2 categories. People who I think will be less useful later on in the game because they aren't articulate enough and thus we should lynch them or by pure fact that I did not like what they are posting.

infii

I've played with infii and he was a bit weak to begin with when I did play with him, however, I found that I could read when he was being town by the targets he was focusing on with his posts and he did eventually get a lot better at analysis so I would have assumed better from him so far.

+ Show Spoiler +

Infii's is one of the lowest posting people in the game at the moment with 3 total posts. This particular post that I have spoilered above is his only substantial thing that he has added in which it says paticularly nothing, stuff we already pretty much knew.

Now realise this was after me and Umasi had our discussion and so there was a lot of information and reads flying about and things to mention, however, he only decides to mention split parts of peoples posts to ask them questions that really have little to follow up on.

Compare this to his post in a previous game that was similarly early; + Show Spoiler + It's obvious that he's discussing what is happening at that present moment and is getting his input into the situation while saying his views, this was a much more proactive way to participate because it contributed to the topic at hand, it was fleshed out and articulate unlike the post that we have seen.

As we can see the difference is pretty overwhelming, especially when the things he has mentioned have been brought up by people in the posts before him:



He also posts as a reply to lonemeow here: + Show Spoiler + about who he thinks is most scummy, he mentions Umasi's aggressiveness but has not written a single bit about it in his questioning or asked any follow up questions on Umasi regarding it whatsoever.


Not only are these two posts suspicious but his initial post was: + Show Spoiler +

He went out of his way to mention that he is town for no reason whatsoever. Obviously, you can take that to mean anything you want but in my point of view there is scummy intentions behind implanting things like that in the start of the game. It's obviously emphasised by his follow up posts that draw me to suspicions on his first post.




heavenz

+ Show Spoiler +

This was his first post and some people pointed it out as being scummy. I assume he is new (only 17 posts on the site, no previous mafia games here etc.) and so that is the reason for his post (This happened in a game 2 games ago and the guy was town.) So there is no information to read from this whatsoever.

However after his flavour post was:

+ Show Spoiler +

This is non contributary. The only real merit was that he wrote a few lines on Umasi, however when you look closely it holds nothing of value seeing as a few posts before it was killerdogs same reasoning: + Show Spoiler + minus my name. Not only that but it asks no questions, adds nothing to be discussed and leaves us with nothing more than had already been said.

Pretty much blending in and then he says: + Show Spoiler +

He puts me on his scum list but doesn't want to hear anything more from me, not even a question about what I've said or any queries that he didn't like. More blending in etc.

His + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + it is more non-contributary stuff to add, equally as little posts as infii pretty much and just as non-helpful also mentions him being new etc.


I don't really have questions to ask them rather than point out these obvious weak posts. I will be voting one of these two most probably in the next day.

Lord Velocity and Chairman Ray were close on these lists, however velocity has been put under some pressure and has been working towards what I see as a more pro town active role. In fact ray should be another one on this list even but I'll post that a bit later, these are the candidates I'd rather focus on for now.

I want a lot more contributions from them if they want to be cleared from here.

On September 05 2013 18:22 myRZeth wrote:


Being quiet is usually the best choice, at least on the SC2 Mafia Arcade game. You re able to observe everything and judge on your own.
Don t worry, i m active

On September 06 2013 00:07 Holyflare wrote:
Alternatively, you could follow the plethora of helpful guides because you will definitely be lynched today if you continue to do what you are doing. What is the point of doing your strategy if you end up dead after all.

---

Useful Guides

• A General Guide to Playing Mafia - very useful!
  
• LSB's Newbie Guide
  
• Mafiascum Newbie Guide
  
• Introduction to Mafia (Flash)
  
• Ver's town guide
  
• Ace's Mafia Manifesto
  
• Qatol's Town Guide
  
• Qatol's Mafia VII Experience
  
• Ace's Cop/Vigi guide

On September 06 2013 00:09 Holyflare wrote:



Yes you can. Like I said, this isn't SC2 mafia. If you have contributed nothing in the game so far and refuse to why should we keep you in? The whole point of the game is to identify yourself as town to other people within the town. How is this possible when you refuse to post ANYTHING? You could easily just as likely be mafia doing the same thing since there is no reason for a town to hold back so you become the most useless person to us in the game currently. It is also not early, there is not long left in the day phase.

On September 06 2013 01:01 Blurry wrote:
While I agree that he (myrzeth) isn't worth keeping around it may just be a waste of a vote to lynch him today. I'm assuming that the mafia has a QT which they can use during the day? If that is the case, if he really was just a lurking mafia his buddies would have given him stuff to say in order to save him.

I just don't think there is enough to go on piling on the easiest target because he is just a lurker, and it may very well be that a lot of the pressure on him is coming from mafia themselves. Be careful in voting for him because he is the easiest target for mafia to get a mislynch right now compared to anyone else.

On September 06 2013 01:20 Holyflare wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +




This makes me think he's just a useless vanilla townie. It's really really frustrating seeing how people can stick to their ideals like this. On the one hand I REALLY want to lynch him for being a lurker and pretty much useless but that post annoys me for thinking that.

As for my pressure on infii and heavenz I think they have cleaned up their acts reasonably well and so my only other candidate that would be viable is ray. However, I am more than comfortable lynching lurkers over him.

On September 06 2013 04:19 Bereft wrote:
regarding myrzeth, I think his silence may have just been a totally rookie move / a lack of understanding of the game, so we shouldn't be so fast to lynch him. that being said, I have no desire to keep around someone making zero effort.

myrzeth, I would like to see in the next 2 hours some (any!) indication that you are willing to rethink your stance and make an effort to contribute to discussion. I really don't want to have to lynch somebody who's evidently not grasping the core concept of forum mafia before they have a chance to learn and correct themselves, but if you don't post you leave me with little choice.

On September 06 2013 04:59 Umasi wrote:


but is he SCUM?

(I'm back)

On September 06 2013 05:19 killerdog wrote:
That post was a bit longer then i meant it to get, but basically I see our choice right now as being,

1. lynch myrzeth for shitty town play (and if we get lucky and hit a mafia, yay win)
2. lynch someone as a scum read, the a few people are pushing for LV in particular. I also think chairman ray has been a bit suspicious compared to other people, but I've seen a few people put him down as one of their town reads so thats moved him (temporarily) down on my scum list.
3. lynch someone else for shitty town play, but I don't see anyone else as anywhere near as potentially useless at myrzeth seems to be looking.

On September 06 2013 05:33 LoneMeow wrote:
I don't think myRZeth is a good lynch candidate unless we want to policy lynch for playing like a prick. Trying to read alignment from his "strategy" brings just WIFOM. Sadly, because I really do want to punish for playing like that.

I'm also not sure I'd want to lynch Lord Velocity either, while he does seem somewhat scummy the fact that no one seems to be opposed to lynching him makes me wonder if he's just mislynch bait. (Yay, pre-flip associations... But I still do really feel that way, for now.)

More in a bit, typing one handed is painfully slow...

On September 06 2013 00:29 infii wrote:
In my last bigger post I only focused on the guys with a low post count to get more information out of them, I don’t get why this was considered scummy... Unfortunately that didn’t work very well. Myrzeth even stated himself being a lurker. (wut?)
I think I will be able to post a quick summary on my reads and my vote shortly before the day ends.

For this approach I will analyse different cases instead of single people:


Case 1 – First discussion about lynching Day 1

Coming soon/when I have the time


Case 2 – Holyflare’s denial of posting reads early on

The main post:


Reactions from Umasi and my thoughts:
+ Show Spoiler +

Reactions from Blurry and my thoughts:
+ Show Spoiler +


Case 3 – The LV slipup

Coming soon/ when I have the time

Damn I’m running out of time here and won’t be able to finish it until I have to leave. So instead I’ll just post it unfinished and add the other cases on a later time when I can afford to write it. :/

I have the overall feeling that we are town led by scum because of the chaotic back and forth of discussions, random accusations and fake aggressiveness. Everyone needs to focus on the facts at hand and not let himself be guided by lurish arguments.