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On July 04 2013 02:14 Oatsmaster wrote: no JJD.
at least I really hope not.
Why? Either way were killing them both today or tomorrow. Unless we hit the scum today and we get a fantastic read on another scum player.
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I agree, we need to hear from WOS, if he tells everything, like why scum want to kill him and who he protected. Then sure we can kill Fuba instead.
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Comparatively if Fuba can tell a more believable story we lynch WOS.
WOS why did you lie to us?
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marvellosity strode up and down the main chamber.
"No, you fools! I'm blates town!"
The crowd sneered, but marvellosity had become but a sideshow. The crowd looked expectantly towards the main doors, sipping their wine nervously. The entrances of Arch-liar WaveofShadow and Dull-prose fuba were eagerly awaited.
Their fate? A visit to the lion chamber. Many had made that trip; none had returned. Bells struck in the distance, piercing the tension-filled silence - witching hour is upon us!
Come mortals, do battle with only your wits to guide you. The court of your peers looms large!
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See scum? Look at what I do for you, I shut down discussion, and this is how you repay me? Shameful, sirs.
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Welp I think I finally get whats going on, scum agenda is one thing and one thing only. Making sure that of the two supposed survivors, the scum player survives the day. The way to discern this is by determining whose trying (or rather tried) to survive the night/game and whose trying to survive the day. It is not enough for survivor to simply not be lynched, it is for scum.
Going by this standard we see WOS has in fact already lost this game, the moment a third party reveals in a non ridicules setup they have effectively placed they're fate into the other teams hands. This is why WOS fake claimed, he literally had no other move, to admit hes survivor is to basically hand the game over. Also when he does reveal his play shifts drastically tone wise. Now the big question, why did WOS think scum was coming after him? What if he was actually role blocked at night? Suddenly his claim(or at least the least believable part of it) feels more believable if scum were attempting to neutralize the survivor, not the vet, whose likely the biggest threat to them ability wise. WOS's play did not feel especially town like, but It could come off as neutral from a scums perspective. Perhaps his blue claim wasn't made to convince us, but rather to convince scum that he was not survivor.
So lets say WOS was actually role blocked, which is not too farfetched considering that someone was and that someone was not Lazer. WOS claims vet, in a bid to convince scum that survivor is still out there. This serves two purposes, a) it's basically a 'hey, you got the wrong guy' to scum, and b) it's an attempt at convincing scum that he could be protected by survivor tonight, this is why he claims blue(aside from it being his only option), because that improves his odds in they're eyes that he cant be shot until actual survivor is killed. Which is bullshit because hes survivor XD.
Not the greatest move, but a pretty scrappy one I must say. The only flaw with the claim is that he didn't take into account an angry town mob tearing his claim to shreds. The point is though that it wouldve been better for scum to claim survivor (especially WOS) rather than the very last blue because they are more likely to survive the day as survivor (hohohoho) and thats they're only objective, maintain 2 kp for just one last day. But for survivor thats a terrible move, which might only guarantee them a day or little more to live, provided that scum doesn't shoot them at night first. WOS only makes the claim when no other option is left to him. If WOS is survivor, his play is indicative of someone who is completely screwed, beset by enemies on all sides whose had to take crazy risks just to survive one more day night cycle. This is the play of a survivor.
Fuba on the other hand casually makes the claim here in this post that I'm about to tear apart. The bold is me.
Sorry for getting back so late, but it looks like a lot of you figured out my role already. I'm Hans Landa - German Survivor Jailkeeper. No jail last night, since it really didn't look like I was going to be NK'd, and after that shitstorm with marv/rayn/lazer/etc there were likely better vigi shots.
He accepts that weve found him so easily... and acts as if nothings changed. Also If your jail keeper, why not use your ability? Makes no sense, at the very least with a mass role claim on the way you can lend credence to your claim and maybe earn some town favour.
If WoS is telling the truth, then it looks like scum has a roleblocker and saw him as possibly blue. If he's lying, then... he's scum.
This is worthless, he basically says hes either scum or town... how remarkable.
To make up for the Vayne lynch a bit (that came way too close for me :S), I'll offer that I, at least, didn't get a fake claim. It feels like if scum had been given fake claims, then I would have gotten one, since this setup makes massclaims really likely, and it feels like it's gonna be really hard to walk that line between town and scum.
This is interesting, why does he feel so sure that scum dont have fake claims? The exact wording is as if hes throwing town a bone, though why would survivor so confidently know that scum get no fake claims? Either way hes not lying because if hes survivor he has no reason to lie and if hes scum why would he assume survivor if he had a fake claim? What we can take away from this is that Marv is probably not scum. Because this effectively confirms that they're are no fake roles either way. Though well be sure when we see Fuba flip.
Oh yeah, marv, I thought I responded to your questions in my nested post. You asked what the contradictions were, and I answered it, and you asked what the "possibly scummy but sometimes townie" elements of stutters' filter were, and I answered that too. Lemme know if there's something else I missed. And if you could actually comment on what I wrote, that'd be great, instead of doing what everyone apparently does with my posts and skimming it, saying nothing, and pulling it out when they're strarving for scumreads.
This is a great big ball of nothing. He basically says Marv sucks and tell him to back and read other stuff not relevant to this current situation.
Also, though I didn't have time or necessarily the inclination to comment on it before, I'm pretty reasonably convinced you're town. Rayn's later posts about you were giving me a similar feeling to the post by oats I brought up earlier regarding rayn himself. There was an incredible amount of confirmation bias going on that even I could see, and I agreed with him that in that situation it was scummy for you to be suspicious of lazer. I also think your responses were in line with townie marv. I can't explain away the main reason for the scumread, since I still think the logic is for the most part sound, but with the clusterfuck of claims this thread's become at the moment, it's hard to analyze anything clearly.
Says he considers Marv town, though he didn't bother saying it before, and doesn't provide reasons why now, in fact he only mentions something he found scummy about Marv. Then casually flings doubt on Rayne reads and complains it's too hard to analyze anything right now.
It *is* clear, however, that there's something fishy going on with the claims, though I cba to find out what it is at the moment. I haven't slept in almost 48 hours, my brain is slowing to the speed of a snail, and I almost passed out 4 5 times while writing this post. I'll be back tomorrow, gonna need like half a day of sleep... Read what I wrote about stutters, and tell me what's actually wrong with the reasoning (not just marv, but anyone who actually disagrees with it).
Says he finds something obviously fishy fishy but doesn't follow up in anyway. Then he says he wont be able to provide any analysis today, then he tells the whole thread to go and look at something thats not really relevant anymore.
He barely touches upon everything thats happened, and try's to redirect town onto matters that stopped mattering 20 pages ago. Furthermore his confidence that they're are no fake claims seems to be the closest thing I've seen to a scum slip all game and his own claim is just so boring. Hes supposed to be survivor, yet the way hes producing reads is the exact same as hes been doing all game. Go back and take note of WOS's attempts not to be outed and the stark change in WOS's play when he finally was, both these things are indicative of a survivor. They're is none of that in Fuba's play, and the casual way in which he accepts that we've found him is way to chill. Lastly Fuba would have us believe that he deliberately chose not to use his ability, which I find far less believable than WOS being role blocked or choosing not to reveal who he jailed.
Fuba is scum, and the person I'd like to thank for helping me come to this realization... Is Oats.
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On July 04 2013 05:05 WaveofShadow wrote: See scum? Look at what I do for you, I shut down discussion, and this is how you repay me? Shameful, sirs.
I actually need to salute you, if you did what I think you did that there is some balls.
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gumshoe, just reading through now, but - if WoS was survivor he wouldn't know if he was roleblocked, unless he tried jailing rayn.
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I don't get why people think claiming survivor is a death wish. I claimed survivor day 2 when I was survivor in Parallel worlds and survived pretty easily until I achieved my wincon on day 6.
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*and* I had anti-town powers, unlike whoever our survivor is here
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On July 04 2013 05:33 marvellosity wrote: gumshoe, just reading through now, but - if WoS was survivor he wouldn't know if he was roleblocked, unless he tried jailing rayn.
I dont know, but looking back his play is way more indicative of survivor than Fuba. Also maybe he did get roll blocked on Rayne, hes implying that he has had some kind of connection with scum. Getting blocked on Rayne might just be it. Aside from that he might have some power we dont know about thats put him jeopardy. Point is Fuba has claimed survivor but has effectively stated it means nothing. On the other side of the spectrum we have WOS who gives the impression that we know nothing and that our names are all Jon snow. WOS also doesn't tell us everything because it's not in his interest to, hes trying to win not just get through the day. Fuba comes clean (literally considering they're is nothing to reveal) because hes just trying to survive one day.
Also claiming survivor in this game is a death wish because town has no doctor. With no vig in the game and an easy role block on Lazer Landa is the biggest threat to scum. Hes trying to fool them, not us.
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Ebwop end of 4th sentence
not to.
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On July 04 2013 05:42 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 05:33 marvellosity wrote: gumshoe, just reading through now, but - if WoS was survivor he wouldn't know if he was roleblocked, unless he tried jailing rayn. I dont know, but looking back his play is way more indicative of survivor than Fuba. Also maybe he did get roll blocked on Rayne, hes implying that he has had some kind of connection with scum. Getting blocked on Rayne might just be it. Aside from that he might have some power we dont know about thats put him jeopardy. Point is Fuba has claimed survivor but has effectively stated it means nothing. On the other side of the spectrum we have WOS who gives the impression that we know nothing and that our names are all Jon snow. WOS also doesn't tell us everything because it's not in his interest to, hes trying to win not just get through the day. Fuba comes clean (literally considering they're is nothing to reveal) because hes just trying to survive one day. Also claiming survivor in this game is a death wish because town has no doctor. With no vig in the game and an easy role block on Lazer Landa is the biggest threat to scum. Hes trying to fool them, not us.
Although I think some of your details are spotty, I think you might actually be right.
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gumshoe, if fuba is mafia, and given roleblocks aren't notified, why do you think he claimed jailing no-one instead of someone? For example, he could claim to have jailed Jarjar?
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Alternatively, perhaps WOS was trying to fool scum that Landa blocked him. He did this not because he was actually blocked last night but because he was just scared of scum in general and the mass claim threatened to out him.
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On July 04 2013 05:48 marvellosity wrote: gumshoe, if fuba is mafia, and given roleblocks aren't notified, why do you think he claimed jailing no-one instead of someone? For example, he could claim to have jailed Jarjar?
Because he was frightened of a contradiction or a stupid sounding block. If he said Jar Jar would you have believed him? Of course not. His best option as scum would be to claim that he remained neutral. His best move as survivor though would be trying to benefit either town or scum with a mass claim on it's way. Only he couldn't do that because hes not survivor and hes not town aligned.
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Why would we not believe him jailing Jarjar?
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On July 04 2013 05:52 marvellosity wrote: Why would we not believe him jailing Jarjar?
Because why would you jail Jar Jar when you have the power to make an actual difference(sorry Jar Jar, Rayne and co were better choices)? It's also a choice that draws more attention to him because hes specifically picking Jar Jar. If he stays neutral then the choice is far simpler. But how does that bring him closer to winning? Look at WOS's play and you see someone trying to survive both factions, look at Fubas and you see someone trying to survive the lynch. He hasn't even mentioned that scum might target him tonight.
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