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On July 02 2013 18:00 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 17:43 LoneMeow wrote:On July 02 2013 11:31 Aquanim wrote:
I'm around, I just haven't had anything new to say. StiM didn't really give us anything concrete and I'm not sure what to make of LoneMeow's case on hzflank.
I'd like to know who else LoneMeow thinks is scum. Analyzing the associations between players: Hurricane - good as confirmed town based on Onegu's flip Aquanim - not likely Stim - possible SpicyDinosaur - possible, even likely? So I'd say probably SpicyDinosaur, possibly Stim. @Aqua, what do you think of this post by LoneMeow?
Well, it hasn't explained as much of what he's thinking as I'd like.
@LoneMeow: Could you justify your reads from this post some more?
These reads basically align with mine - I would say Hurricane is as good as confirmed town, Stim is possible scum and Spicy is likely. A little curious that he's chosen to base it on "associations betweeen players" seeing as how Spicy (at least) is calling me scum (rather than 'not likely') based entirely on association...
A question we have to ask ourselves is:
What is the plan of scum likely to be at the moment?
I see three options:
- try to secure a day 4 mislynch (in which case they will both try to lynch a townie, not necessarily the same one)
- bus each other for towncred to win at day 5 (in which case they will try to lynch each other)
- have it both ways - one busses, the other pushes a mislynch
Of the three I think the third is perhaps more likely (covering both bases might feel safer than going all-in one way or the other), but all three are viable possibilities. This makes it difficult to analyse reads given at this point in the game - scum could have reasons to push the lynch of basically anybody.
As such, I think this post by LoneMeow, and the reads he's given here, aren't particularly useful to me in terms of determining his alignment - especially seeing as he hasn't given any reasoning behind them. Unjustified reads given at LYLO are WIFOM hell.
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though.
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On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though.
I have already posted this, but my I think it makes sense for a scum LoneMeow to make a case on me. They have to nightkill me Night 4 anyway. If they attempt a mislynch and it fails then they ideally want to nightkill the person that they attempted to mislynch.
Also, as you aluded to, what we needed to see was LoneMeow's reads on other people, but he has deliberately avoided answering the important questions.
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Something interesting I'll point out about the day one lynch - if Spicy and StiM are the remaining scum the final votecount would look like this:
Xzavier (7): LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge, hzflank, Alakaslam
Aquanim (2): Xzavier, StiMaDDict
Alakaslam (1): Onegu
Hurricane Sponge (1): Spicydinosaur
That's right, nobody on the Xzavier wagon. While scum generally don't want to draw attention to themselves by driving a wagon on a townie, there's also security in numbers - voting for someone all out on your lonesome also draws attention to you and I doubt they'd be comfortable with none of the scumteam hiding among the large proportion of players on the Xzavier wagon.
This doesn't make a Spicy/StiM team impossible but I think it's less likely.
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On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
What is the plan of scum likely to be at the moment?
I have been thinking about this a lot. I do not think it is beneficial to fully reveal and explain my answers at this time.
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@Aqua
Considering the bad position that the town is in, can you explain to me the benefit of even looking at the game as though there is a reasonable chance of Stim being scum?
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On July 02 2013 20:19 hzflank wrote:
@Aqua
Considering the bad position that the town is in, can you explain to me the benefit of even looking at the game as though there is a reasonable chance of Stim being scum?
If he is scum I'd prefer to work it out (somehow) and lynch him.
If he isn't I'd like to find whatever can convince me of that, for my peace of mind if nothing else.
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Is it even realistic that it can be figured out until we see another flip?
Stim might be up to page 2 on his filter now, but there is still nothing there that makes him look scummy.
If I flip town or you flip scum, then it is very likely that Stim is town (imo). But you cannot afford to see me flip town before the Night 4 kill, and you obviously know your own alignment.
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On July 01 2013 11:59 StiMaDDict wrote:
I think it is safe to say that LoneMeow is probably a scum, but then again I had a terrible experience from the last game so yeah.. Also it would be hypocritical to call him a lurker because I been lurking all game.
As for Spicy, I can't really tell if he is or he is not a scum, because he is playing a very much thought out and careful game. There is nothing solid of evidence that I can point to as a proof. I will this though, in the last game he played an excellent townie but I'm not getting that same feel in this game. Can elaborate further if you request.
As for Aquanim, only looking at votes, cases and interactions, he is a scum. He voted for Xzavier and Alakslam. He has a bizzare relationship with LoneMeow. However he fucking talks a lot and he has strong opinions.
So that's that..
Please elaborate as much as you can on everything. Don't be scared of making mistakes at this point. If you are town then you should be playing to win. If you want to win as town then we need you to post as much as you can. I need to try to get inside your head.
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On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.
d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.
This makes no sense. A scum Stim would not want to bus a scum Aqua on day 1. Stim does not post much and therefore is not a hugely influential player. Aqua was getting stuck in on day 1 and was already putting himself in a position to influence the game. The non-influential scum would not bus the influential scum like that.
I do not understand why a town Spicy is focusing on Stim at this point, and not focusing on anyone else. Even if Stim is scum (and Spicy is town) then the town can only win by lynching him on day 5, because I will be around for the day 4 voting and I am highly unlikely to vote for Stim. The only possible day 4 lynch on Stim is a mis-lynch.
You are probably wondering why I have been defending Stim so much. We had bad luck with the day 1 modkill and then had a night 1 cop kill. We mislynched our tracker on day 2. We found ourselves in a 4-3 LYLO with no useful power roles. I want to win the game and based on the reads I have I need Stim to be town in order to win the game. Therefore, I have been trying to cultivate a town-town relationship with Stim to increase our chances of winning the game. I have not been hiding this, my thoughts about Stim have been out in the open for a long time now.
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On July 02 2013 12:34 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 21:42 Spicydinosaur wrote:
@everyone, please look at the relationships between everyone, not just the individual filters.
Quick FYI: i will be traveling for the next couple of days so i will be posting from my phone. Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.
d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there. Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 01:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet. Spicy, your entire read on me (and for that matter StiM) appears to be based on relationships (and mostly speculative between the two of us rather than to the confirmed scum Onegu), rather than individual filters. I appreciate that there isn't a whole lot in StiM's filter to go off, but FirmTofu had a strong town read on me based on my play viewed individually. If you think I'm scum, what in FirmTofu's analysis ( link) do you disagree with?
Tofu's post honestly doesnt say much other than you stuck to your guns on an unpopular topics and that you "pressured a scum," though at the time no one knew onegu was scum.
As for your relationship with onegu...
Onegu votes you against the xzavier wagon. Obviously he knows xzavier is town so he puts a vote on you for later town cred. Your wagon starts building and Onegu panics and removes his vote and puts it on slam. We can see onegu panicing the next day when he fake claims early to avoid a lynch. Aqua then comes to his rescue posting a case to save onegu.
Stim and Aqua
I believe stim's play has been deliberate in that he was meant to be isolated and not have "relationships" with other players. Barely posting makes it harder to read and thus easier to hide.
As stated before stim had a scum read on aqua d1 but that turned into a null read after d2 with aqua's vote on slam. Their other important interaction is on D1 with stim voting aqua. Stim threw his vote down very late d1 and it made the count 4-4 between xzavier and aqua. Obviously this was a risky play as only one more vote switch to aqua would seal his fate... so why did stim vote aqua?
possible reason #1: stim voting xzavier is a lot more dangerous as xzavier would flip town and everyone on the wagon is suspicious. Most people were already suspicious of stim for his late voting and if he just hoped on the xzavier bandwagon it would throw huge red flags up for everyone. Similarly, stim voting for a candidate outside the wagon would get a lot of attention as did everyone else who voted outside the wagon. Aqua on the other hand was not going to get lynched and serves the duel purpose of voting for a fellow scum and not drawing as much attention to himself. It was riskier because the vote was so close at that point, but even if the votes held, xzavier would be lynched due to tie breaker rules. Furthermore stim doesnt push his vote, just posts his case and leaves it at that.
Possible reason #2: stim thought that aqua was going to be lynched and intentionally bussed him. The vote was 3-4 and scum were panicing in qt about the momentum building on aqua and wanted to get in before the tide was overwhelming. Onegu couldnt switch his vote because it would look extremely scummy. This scenario is the far less likely as the focus was on xzavier mostly.
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I will pre-empt whoever will show up to say that Stim and I could both be scum.
If we were both scum then I would not need to defend Stim at all. I could make a case on either LoneMeow or Spicy and have a pretty good chance of getting Aqua to vote with me. Then Stim shows up with the usual late vote on my target and the scum team (Stim and I) win the game.
It would be bad scum play for me to defend Stim if we were both scum.
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@Spicy, I am not sure if I have posted this yet but:
I need you to elaborate on LoneMeow vs me.
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On July 02 2013 22:03 hzflank wrote:
This makes no sense. A scum Stim would not want to bus a scum Aqua on day 1. Stim does not post much and therefore is not a hugely influential player. Aqua was getting stuck in on day 1 and was already putting himself in a position to influence the game. The non-influential scum would not bus the influential scum like that.
I do not understand why a town Spicy is focusing on Stim at this point, and not focusing on anyone else. Even if Stim is scum (and Spicy is town) then the town can only win by lynching him on day 5, because I will be around for the day 4 voting and I am highly unlikely to vote for Stim. The only possible day 4 lynch on Stim is a mis-lynch.
You are probably wondering why I have been defending Stim so much. We had bad luck with the day 1 modkill and then had a night 1 cop kill. We mislynched our tracker on day 2. We found ourselves in a 4-3 LYLO with no useful power roles. I want to win the game and based on the reads I have I need Stim to be town in order to win the game. Therefore, I have been trying to cultivate a town-town relationship with Stim to increase our chances of winning the game. I have not been hiding this, my thoughts about Stim have been out in the open for a long time now.
See my above. Also i am not just focusing on stim, i am focusing on stims/aqau/onegu's relationships.
Ill be posting relationships between lone/stim/onegu in a little bit.
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On July 02 2013 22:12 hzflank wrote:
I will pre-empt whoever will show up to say that Stim and I could both be scum.
If we were both scum then I would not need to defend Stim at all. I could make a case on either LoneMeow or Spicy and have a pretty good chance of getting Aqua to vote with me. Then Stim shows up with the usual late vote on my target and the scum team (Stim and I) win the game.
It would be bad scum play for me to defend Stim if we were both scum.
at this point in the game i wouldnt be suprised if there was a busing or cross claims of being scum. Only 1 mislynch is needed so there could be a busing d4 for town cred to get a mislynch the following day.
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On July 02 2013 22:18 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 22:12 hzflank wrote:
I will pre-empt whoever will show up to say that Stim and I could both be scum.
If we were both scum then I would not need to defend Stim at all. I could make a case on either LoneMeow or Spicy and have a pretty good chance of getting Aqua to vote with me. Then Stim shows up with the usual late vote on my target and the scum team (Stim and I) win the game.
It would be bad scum play for me to defend Stim if we were both scum. at this point in the game i wouldnt be suprised if there was a busing or cross claims of being scum. Only 1 mislynch is needed so there could be a busing d4 for town cred to get a mislynch the following day.
As I said, we would not need to bus anyone. LoneMeow already posted a case against me. I could of just returned the favour. A town Aqua would of voted with me. That would of just been an easy win.
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Also, if Stim and Aqua are both scum then they have already won. They just both side with LoneMeow and vote for me.
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Onegu and lone relationship: virtually no interaction except for lones vote on confirmed scum onegu. Onegu did say early d1 that he put his scum team as aqua, firm and one of (lone, alakaslam). If lone is scum, then they kept themselves separate all game.
Lone and aqua:
D1, lone throws his vote down for xzavier and would be open to voting stim, but NOT aqua. Then day 2 lone states that he cant ignore aqua's logic and votes for slam, basically sheeping aqua. Throughout their relationship, lone never though aqua as scum.
Aqua states early on d1 that he doesnt want to lynch lone because lone says pregame that he is on vacation. This doesnt really tell us much as pregame is before alignment is sent out. Aqua later states that lone's 2 day 1 posts are more constructive than xzavier's entire filter. Aqua further says in his nighttime post that if he should die, lone should be given space to play and he liked his posts. Aqua later clarifies that his read on lone is null. During the d2 votes, aqua now starts to put lone in a possible scum team if onegu flips red. And now finally aqua wants to vote lone over stim because lone's play feels more careful.
Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team. Aqua seems to give lone a lot of room to post and then when lone doesnt pick it up, aqau starts suspecting he's scum. Possible scum criticism in the thread but just doesnt feel it. A stim/lone team can easily be made since they are both lurkers and dont have really any interactions together.
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This paragraph deserves to be quoted again.
On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though.
How can Lone's case on me possibly be a town move? Even if he actually thinks I am scum then he should of planned to lynch me on day 5. If I am scum, how does a town Lone expect to lynch me day 4?
I do not think that a town Lone could possibly of made that move.
On July 02 2013 22:46 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team
Maybe I am tunnelling too much, but I know Hurricane (confirmed town) thinks that the scum team is Aqua/Lone. I am confident that Firm (confirmed town) thinks that Spicy/Lone is the scum team. I think that either Aqua/Lone or Spicy/Lone is the scum team, and I have made this clear enough recently (even before Lone's case).
I am genuinely surprised that Spicy does not think that Aqua/Lone is the scum team.
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On July 02 2013 23:06 hzflank wrote:This paragraph deserves to be quoted again. Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though. How can Lone's case on me possibly be a town move? Even if he actually thinks I am scum then he should of planned to lynch me on day 5. If I am scum, how does a town Lone expect to lynch me day 4? I do not think that a town Lone could possibly of made that move. Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 22:46 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team
Maybe I am tunnelling too much, but I know Hurricane (confirmed town) thinks that the scum team is Aqua/Lone. I am confident that Firm (confirmed town) thinks that Spicy/Lone is the scum team. I think that either Aqua/Lone or Spicy/Lone is the scum team, and I have made this clear enough recently (even before Lone's case). I am genuinely surprised that Spicy does not think that Aqua/Lone is the scum team.
Its the voting on d2 that doesnt make me think aqua/lone team. Lone completely sheeps aqua on the slam vote and once slam flipped, both would look extremely bad. The more likely scenario is one of them was scum and other is town that just piggybacked. I really liked the aqua/stim team over the weekend, but lone's case makes 0 sense to me as it feels like he is just posted on a townie so he doesnt have to make a case on his scum buddy. Im still liking stim as a lynch because of his late d2 posts but lone is seriously making me wonder what he is doing.
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That came across a bit harsh, sorry Spicy. I just cannot read you as much as I would like to, and as far as I am concerned the game rests on your alignment.
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EPT
