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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 88

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hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 10:11 GMT
#1741
On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
I believe hzflank is scum.

During day 1, he repeatedly claims he thinks Xzavier is town, yet ends up voting for him anyway with a relatively weak reasoning ("more likely to produce information" - you don't lynch for information if you have a scum read). Also switches his vote around quite a few times and plays the noob defense before anyone even accuses him of anything.


I did not have a good scum read. Why should I? How could you even expect my day 1 reads to be any good? In reality, I was the person who tried the hardest to move the wagon off of Xz. By the time I placed my vote it had already been decided and there was no town cred to be gained.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 08:37 hzflank wrote:
We will also get Fyfy's flip, which is a bonus.


I can't see any town motivation for claiming fyfy's flip being a bonus. Losing an extra player by essentially RNG during day 1 is horrible for town, and in this case it was even worse as fyfy had practically no association with any of the players so his flip did not give any useful information.

Almost like a slip, if you ask me.


Fyfy was almost a lurker. Once there was no counter-wagon to Xz, we were in a position where we would have been better off just policy voting a lurker (Stim). For a time I even moved my vote to a lurker, but people on the Xz wagon stated that that would not be willing to make a last minute vote switch. I was looking forward to seeing Fyfy's flip more than I was looking forward to seeing Xz's flip.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 14:19 hzflank wrote:
EBWOP:

@Hurricane

Correction to that question:

If you had to Vig kill someone tonight, but all players looked equally scummy, who would you shoot?


Baiting Hurricane to enter WIFOM hell. Luckily Hurricane was smart enough not to bite.


It was not the best question, I admit. I wanted to know where Hurricane thought the important information was. Hurricane is not a player who needs to worry about WIFOM hell anyway, but if I had asked that question to Alakaslam it would have been particularly nasty!

On June 26 2013 14:48 hzflank wrote:
EBWOP

To clarify: I am NOT saying that a Vig should shoot aqua. A mis-kill would be disastrous, and I am not claiming him to be scum.

I was just thinking 'if this guy flipped now, what would it tell us'. And I realized that the town stands more to gain from an Aqua flip than anyone else. Aqua had the second wagon in day 1, and there is now a wagon forming on Onegu, who claims he will make his case on Aqua.


On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 09:40 hzflank wrote:
Sorry for moving me vote 4 times :/

Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 21:08 hzflank wrote:
I want to apologize for being really bad on day one. This is not me getting emo, that can wait until the end of the game.

Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 03:51 hzflank wrote:
Sorry that last comment was actually a bit harsh.

Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 14:40 hzflank wrote:
Again, it was horribly bad town play by me and I am sorry for that, but this is not a scum tell on Onegu.


His early play contains a lot of trying to appease and claiming he's sorry for being so bad. This in itself isn't necessarily very damning, but will become more important later in this case.


We are not losing this game due to bad luck. If we do not look at our own play, find mistakes and try to remove them from our play then we will not only lose this game but also future games. This is a newbie game so learning should be a big part of it.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 14:40 hzflank wrote:
In response to Firm's case against Onegu.

Firm, it's a bad case. You are convinced of his guilt so you are using anything you can to prove it. That's your style and that's fine, but you are not getting my vote for those reasons.

Point 1: Fluffy reason. You are also looking for reasons to vote against Onegu that in hindsight you probably wont agree with. See my opening to this post.

Point 2: Onegu's vote switch off of Aqua only makes Onegu look scum if Aqua is also scum. If Onegu knew Aqua and Xzavier he could just of left his vote on Aqua as it did not matter which of the two was lynched. In fact, Aqua was playing a better town game than Xzavier so lynching Aqua would have been better for the scum. If Aqua were scum then Onegu switch his vote at a time that ensured Xzavier would be lynched instead of Aqua, but I would have to be a fool to cast a vote today based on that Association. This is especially true because Aqua and I seem to have been thinking on similar lines for most of day 2, and one point I felt like we were almost masonned.

Also, on page 22 you played a part in convincing Onegu to move his vote off of Aqua. You were pushing hard to get people to vote in the way you thought it best, just as you are today. That's not a bad thing as I think good town play requires conviction, but it also does not mean that your vote is in the right place.

Point 3: I stopped Onegu's day 2 attacked on Aqua. It was really bad play by me. After re-evaluating my play I realise this but it's too late to change that now. I put Onegu in a position where he felt that he might need to vote against your inevitable case, and I was fairly clear that I would not be voting Aqua to be lynched today. I apologise, but your point 3 would be better in a case against me than it is in a case against Onegu.

Point 4: Fluffy reason. The cases we were making against Aqua were weak and full of fluffy reasons. Once Onegu has moved his vote off of Aqua then his wagon was doomed to fail, and Onegu moving it back at that point would not of helped. I cannot read his mind to tell you exactly why he felt apathetic, but that feeling alone is not a strong scum tell.

Point 5: My fault. During the night I made it look like I thought either you or Chromatically were scummy. You made it look like you were starting an early wagon on Onegu. It also looked like you had secured votes from Hurricane and Alakaslam, and there was even a reasonable chance of getting Aqua on board. Onegu needed my vote to save himself, so his best option was to attack you. Again, it was horribly bad town play by me and I am sorry for that, but this is not a scum tell on Onegu.

Overall, I think Onegu seems scummier to you than the other players are you wanted to vote for him. You put a lot of effort into your case and found what you thought were the scummiest things possible about Onegu. Unfortunately, I don't think there was enough there to make a really strong scum case.

After I finished reading your case I was not convinced that Onegu was town, and at the time of this post I am still not 100% convinced that Onegu is town. However, I was leaning town and I am now leaning even more town.

Show nested quote +
On June 27 2013 14:20 hzflank wrote:
In fact the [u]only thing that makes me want to vote for Stim is that I want him to have a different alignment to me, so that if I win then he loses.


During day 2 (before claims), defends Onegu and does a more or less useless vote on Stim without much reasoning. Note that a lot of his defense of Onegu is claiming to be responsible for Onegu's plight because of his bad play.
Redirecting blame to himself when he's not under any suspicion at the time.

After the claims he first votes Onegu, then switches to Alakaslam, while pretty much attacking and defending both speculatively.


I stick by my defence of Onegu on the basis that I did not believe that his day 1 voting apathy was a strong enough scum tell to justify an early day 2 vote on him.

My vote on Stim was not useless as it simultaneously put pressure on both Stim and Onegu.

On June 28 2013 10:28 Aquanim wrote:
(Thanks to hzflank for making the StiMaDDict wagon look convincing, btw.)


On June 30 2013 02:15 hzflank wrote:
EBWOP

In addition that that: if you have a strong town read on someone then play with them. We can set people up as a team. I tried to do it yesterday with Aqua, twice.

The first time it worked and we put pressure on Onegu. The second time it failed (I expected either Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote at the last second).


On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 01:51 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:44 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:39 FirmTofu wrote:
On June 29 2013 01:33 Alakaslam wrote:
I will be lynched. Oh and how did I know? GG, I have bamcis goodbye post comin

If Hurricane votes Onegu again or if hzflank switches his vote back to Onegu, you won't be lynched. Calm down and try to make a case for yourself. Panicking isn't going to help you.

Actually Hurricane is already on it, so we are gonna need to convince hzflank, StiM, or LoneMeow

Unfortunately, between StiM and LoneMeow, there is probably 1 scum and I don't know which so we should work on convincing hzflank who I am almost certain is town.


You think that I have the deciding vote? Fair enough.

##Unvote

Scum, get on board and defend your team mate, because I am not placing my vote until the last second.


This is a gem. Forcing others to decide so he won't look bad no matter what way the flip goes. Then, once mislynch is clear, votes on Onegu to look good after the flip.


There was only a small amount of town cred to gain from such a move. I voted Onegu because:

On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong here:

Alakaslam flips red then:

Onegu is town
LoneMeow is town
Aquanim is town
Spicy is town
Hurricane is town


There had to be some scum on the Alakaslam wagon. Considering the order and the timing of the votes, scum did not need to bus Onegu as they could vote Alakaslam without drawing attention to themselves.

On June 29 2013 10:57 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:54 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:53 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:52 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:51 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:49 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind?


If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam.

WHAT?

SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE

WTF


Look at when the votes went down. LoneMeow dropped the important 5th vote. You made the important case.

The read on Hurricane is independent of is vote.

LoneMeow voted for Alakaslam FIRST

He just decided to vote again, god knows why


He voted before the claims, then unvoted when the claims occurred. Then voted again later.

He unvoted, did he? Guess I missed that.



Forum fail.

Votes went on in this order:

Aqua
Onegu
hzflank
Spicy
LoneMeow

Then hzflank unvotes, and Hurricane votes.


I expected Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote after I voted.

On June 29 2013 11:17 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim

I want your new reads. Please explain why as well.

I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at:

Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1.

StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack

LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good.

Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure.


StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu.

If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective.


Exactly. When I dropped that 4th vote on Onegu I was half-expecting Aqua or Hurricane to drop the hammer. Stim could not of know that they would not do this. Stim is likely town.


On June 29 2013 11:31 hzflank wrote:
You want to know why I thought the hammer might go down on Onegu?...

Because less than an hour ago I was quizzing Stim because he mentioned roleblock claims. The next post was a 'public service announcement' from Hurricane. I thought that if Hurricane was town he realized why I asked and was leaving a breadcrumb for me. I thought that if Aqua was town he would noticed the connection.

I was waiting to see which of them switched their vote.


On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote:
If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight.


Claiming veteran, before getting hit (but after starting to hint at it just a bit earlier). Why would that be a good idea? As vet, you want to be hit, and as early as possible. Now the appeasing play from earlier comes in. There's no reason for a vet to play that way.

I believe he claimed vet to have a good reason why he's going to survive to LYLO.



I claimed Vet after the night action deadline passed. I did so because I thought that I would be Night-killed Night 2 and that FirmTofu would be night-killed night 3. We were both confirmed town in my eyes, and Hurricane is not confirmed town until Onegu flips. I tried to hint at FirmTofu to counter-claim Vet, so that when I was night-killed and did not flip Vet, the scum would seriously consider not shooting Firm on Night 3.

On June 30 2013 10:55 hzflank wrote:
Also, Firm, you should have countered

Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 09:48 hzflank wrote:
Sorry for spamming, I'm running a single monitor and watching MLG. This thread is good for inflating my post counter though


why did I use that phrase?


On June 30 2013 10:56 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote:

If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight.



And that is what you should of countered.


Unfortunately I did not realise that scum hitting the Vet only changes the LYLO to MYLO, so it would not have been the most useful play anyway.

On June 30 2013 10:38 Aquanim wrote:
Even if scum hit the Veteran they still only need one mislynch to win. The only difference is that there will be one more townie and a confirmed townie in the game, who will probably die the next night.

hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu.

Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie.

hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 10:16 GMT
#1742
This may or may not be relevant at this point, but I think it is worth noting.

On June 29 2013 11:05 hzflank wrote:
also, one or both of LoneMeow and Spicy are scum.

hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 10:20 GMT
#1743
Another thing:

The fact that I could quote myself so much in my own defense is quite amusing.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 10:37 GMT
#1744
@Spicy:

If at all possible I need you to make a day 4 case against someone. Even if you can only post by phone, I do not need to see an elaborate case.

If you had to place the first vote on day 4, who would you vote for and why?
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 12:41 GMT
#1745
On June 29 2013 08:04 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 05:15 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Going through the filters, I now think I have figured out who the entire scum team is if 'Slam mislynches. I will vet it properly before I post it, but it will be ready for posting once Night Time hits.


Got a list as well, though i have a feeling its not going to line up with yours. I'm still hoping that 'slam is scum and that the vote was overwhelming because of bussing. Would make this figuring out a lot easier.

As for stim, im more looking forward to his explanation of the vote rather than the vote itself. Town or scum can easily be seen on either side, especially with the votes the way they are.



What was your list?
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
July 01 2013 13:49 GMT
#1746
Man I want a refund, you guys are doing nothing....
Try TL Mafia!!!
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 14:01 GMT
#1747
On July 01 2013 22:49 Onegu wrote:
Man I want a refund, you guys are doing nothing....




I'm trying, but I am having to compete with time zones and real life.

Don't worry though, you will have new people to post with soon
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 16:40 GMT
#1748
I am my own worst enemy in this game.

On June 28 2013 20:25 hzflank wrote:

Specifically, we need to look at why the scum chose to track Hurricane. This is important.



Ah, hindsight
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 17:16 GMT
#1749
On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.

Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.

Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.


Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past.



Of course we considered people splitting their votes. Firm was right to use this logic, because even though he ignored it day 1 it turns out that when I used this logic day 1 it was correct. It turns out that when Firm (and eventually I too) used this logic day 2 it was right.

On June 29 2013 20:54 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Aqua i have a null read on and will need to look into his filter a lot more.


Has your read on Aqua changed since we lost Firm?
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
July 01 2013 18:28 GMT
#1750
Will be off to bed soon, it has been extreamly fun hope to play with all of you again soon. Last scum found my first game and first scum found this game. GG go scum team kill all these fools! We live on the moon and watch you puny power rangers with a telescope there is nothing you can do, we make guys with clay and magicly make them huge, and we even have awesome sound effects. When I was in third grade and you fools wouldnt let be be a power ranger on the playground I get my revenge, I GET MY REVENGE!!!!
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
July 01 2013 19:26 GMT
#1751
Wonder if umasi and alakaslam met in obs chat
Try TL Mafia!!!
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 01 2013 19:36 GMT
#1752
Well played, Onegu.
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
July 01 2013 19:48 GMT
#1753
Btw I scum sipped day one but no one caught it.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
July 02 2013 02:03 GMT
#1754
Survey Says...?
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
July 02 2013 02:05 GMT
#1755
On July 02 2013 11:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Survey Says...?

Onviously no lynch
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
July 02 2013 02:05 GMT
#1756
Ebwop
Obv
Try TL Mafia!!!
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
July 02 2013 02:11 GMT
#1757
Hold one moment please
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
July 02 2013 02:19 GMT
#1758
Day 3 Final Vote Count
[image loading]

Onegu (6): Aquanim, Hurricane Sponge, hzflank, StiMaDDict, Spicydinosaur, LoneMeow
No Lynch (1): Onegu

Onegu the Green Ranger (Mafia Tracker) has been lynched!

Flavor text goes here later.

Night 3 actions must be sent in by [unparsable timestamp format]
Night 3 ends in [unparsable timestamp format]
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
July 02 2013 02:21 GMT
#1759
And the Home Team is on the board!
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
July 02 2013 02:22 GMT
#1760
hz, let me know how you'd like to play the night. I know which two I think are the other mafia. I'll hold off posting until we hear from StiM, Spicy, Aqua, and LoneMeow if you think that's best.
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ESL Pro League Season 23
TLPD

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10. Elazer
1. Rain
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3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
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