EPTAlso, I've had it with this little break from mafia. Missing too many fun games.
/in
This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia
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Also, I've had it with this little break from mafia. Missing too many fun games. /in | ||
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@Marv: why do you feel Cora is scummy for opposing your policy, yet have said nothing about Yamato? | ||
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On February 25 2013 07:54 cDgCorazon wrote: Sarcastic responses aside, it's a scummy move but it is only one post. He's still a null read. If I think he is scum somewhere down the line, I'll let you all know. Why do you feel him being angry at you for past games is a "scummy move"? | ||
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1. Using the duel deciding time to scumhunt and any gung-ho play will be punished. Yamato, it really isn't that hard, if someone goes all gung-ho on the duel, THEY get lynched (think bangbang mafia). 2. Pressuring scumspects to duel each other is an excellent policy and promotes town discussion AND the chance of lynching scum. Anybody who is not in the duel is off the hook. Whereas the two players dueling will be in the spotlight. Having an obvious or even confirmed townie means that neither of the dueling partners will feel much pressure: the obvious townie is fairly secure and the scumspect knows there's no chance to argue himself out of the lynch. Result: instant majority in 10 minutes and the game moves on to night. Great if the scumspect was scum, but gives no information if we mislynch. If, instead, we have 2 people that the thread disagrees about who is scummiest, but are both scumspects, this will cause discussion about them, AND they will be incentivized to defend themselves. Obviously, can't allow this to result in a no-duel, but as Marv said, there is really very little risk of that. That was my input on the policy discussion. Lets get to scumhunting. | ||
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On February 25 2013 09:12 yamato77 wrote: That's so absurdly dumb and wrong I am almost certain you're mafia. All I've said the whole time is that I don't think it's going to work, and that I'll be there to fix the problem if it doesn't. Many times I have said I am not messing with the policy itself unless I feel like it isn't working. What about that is so difficult to understand, Acro? On February 25 2013 06:47 yamato77 wrote: Policies are bad, because no one ever follows them and even if you do, it's a fucking policy and there's no discussion. Hapa you're not this retarded. This is pretty obviously NOT saying you think the policy is fine, but needs a backup plan. In fact, you call the policy bad, say there won't be discussion from it and call Hapa retarded for being in favour of the policy. Which one is it? | ||
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On February 25 2013 09:34 yamato77 wrote: Hapa's backup policy was bad, because it implied an immediate lynch candidate for breaking the plan that no one would end up following. I have said multiple times that Marv's plan is a good one if town is compliant. The problem I have said, also many times, is that town is not always compliant, even if/when Marv is town. Are you just not reading? I looked over your filter again and you never actually say that. Thanks for clearing it up. However, if Hapa's policy is bad, what is your backup plan: you say you will duel your scumread. Will players not wanting to duel themselves not influence those scumreads? | ||
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On February 25 2013 09:43 yamato77 wrote: Cora is mafia. Discuss. I disagree. Why do you think Cora is scum? | ||
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On February 25 2013 09:53 thrawn2112 wrote: I don't think much policy related thought needs to go into dueling. The more arbitrary rules and policies we try to enforce, the more rules and policies scum have available to hide their actions behind. Let the game flow naturally as to counteract unnatural reads brought on by unnatural/arbitrary policies. lol, clearly this town ain't big enough. that much is already apparent Those first posts are a bitch to write, aren't they? Way to say nothing! What do you think of yamato and cora? | ||
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On February 25 2013 10:04 iamperfection wrote: just because someone is acting dumb dosen't mean they are scum. Yamato has shown an interest in the game doesn't care that he is making a spectacle of himself has shown aggression those good sir are town traits Not for everybody. Anyway, lets stop discussing town reads at night, shall we? | ||
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You two should stop shitting up the thread and look at other people than each ohter. | ||
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On February 25 2013 11:41 iamperfection wrote: dino was so easy to read in chrono checkmate That's a complete misrepresentation of dino in that game and you know it. Dieno's claim to townhood was making a plan which was ridiculous and coming up with a crazy campaign for team leader. He also claimed in order to get included in the party. All-in-all, it was enough for a town read on a complete newbie. Dieno is no longer a complete newbie. Also, Dieno was mislynched in Parallel Universe for his wishy washy opening post and not delivering afterwards. If you're trying to say Dieno is scum for not living up to CT, you need to do better than that and read his other games as well. So far I have no clue about Dieno's alignment, but the meta you just plonked in here is completely wrong. | ||
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On February 25 2013 05:54 Keirathi wrote: Hola gents. Fear the 10 paces, filthy scum. Going over the player list reminded me of this. Why bother posting this? It's his only contribution. Imho this is even worse than Snarf. | ||
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On February 25 2013 11:50 Oatsmaster wrote: Thrawn I didnt say it wasnt a scumtell, I said it wasnt a strong scumtell. Anyway stop discussing Marv, its getting nowhere. Acro do you have any reads? I do. Nothing concrete yet, and I don't yell and scream unless I have something to yell and scream about. | ||
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On February 25 2013 11:38 thrawn2112 wrote: Yeah I think iamp's scum. I can't feel the townie thought process behind his posts and his explanations are short and dismissive. You seem to know him quite a bit better than I do. Please explain to me how this is different from when he's town? | ||
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On February 25 2013 11:23 Oatsmaster wrote: I get a different feeling in this game than LIX. He is not really stepping up here, even in LIX he didnt run for mayor until half of the first cycle was gone. So therefore, I dont really think marv is helping town so far. So therefore he is scummy. This is completely contradictory. In LIX Marv didn't step up until later. He was town there. In this game, Marv has not stepped up in the first 4 (or so) hours of the game. Therefore Marv is scummy this game. This makes no sense to me. Oats, your reads so far make no sense. You scum throwing shitty cases around and trying to discredit strong players? | ||
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On February 25 2013 12:18 Hapahauli wrote: Fuck it that a town iamp response if I've ever seen one. Time to look into some other peeps. Iamp's last scumgame was GSL 3, about 4 months ago. Since then he's played quite a bit of town. Do you really think this one easy sentence is enough to proclaim him town? | ||
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On February 25 2013 12:25 Hapahauli wrote: That "I'll do whatever the fuck I want" mentality is town-iamp in a nutshell. Also, his activity is vastly-improved from when I started off on him. So it's a combination of the attitude that sentence purveys and his increased activity. But he's had that attitude all game. Thrawn thought he was scum for it, you think he's town for it. I have no clue, I'd say he's playing pretty similar to the start of CT, where he was town, but I thought he could be scum. He is aggressive and doesn't give a shit. However, the reasons I doubt him are still the same: he gives no reasons, isn't forceful about his reads and has this post: On February 25 2013 07:04 iamperfection wrote: meh you just haven't experienced many good towns im gonna guess mafia will be under pressure from this setup im gonna guess since time is on our side. And looking at the player list some of the better players will likely be town so we will be able to sweat the mafia i would say This post is pointless, but a suspicious mind might think why even bother bringing it up? How does Iamp know that good players are likely town, rather than scum? I don't say anything of it is very conclusive, but given that you and thrawn reach different conclusions based on the same meta, one of you must be wrong and getting some more info on why you think the meta makes him town is important. | ||
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On February 25 2013 12:35 iamperfection wrote: why would you think someone being super aggressive is scummy should mean the opposite no? Aggression isn't a scum- or a town-tell. Aggression is simply aggression. Case in point: Mocsta NMM 37. Also, VE is pretty aggressive as either alignment. Just to name some examples. That said, Adam tends to lurk wayyyy too much as scum. His activity and early pressure on Dieno are uncharacteristic for his scum play. Too early to really tell, though. | ||
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On February 25 2013 19:17 Oatsmaster wrote: Acro, how is having reads a scumtell? And how is attacking vets a scumtell? Dieno dont sheep Acro, Why is this scummy? You are completely twisting that post. I will quote it for good measure, because you seriously fail at quoting: + Show Spoiler [Acro pressure on Oats] + On February 25 2013 12:13 Acrofales wrote: This is completely contradictory. In LIX Marv didn't step up until later. He was town there. In this game, Marv has not stepped up in the first 4 (or so) hours of the game. Therefore Marv is scummy this game. This makes no sense to me. Oats, your reads so far make no sense. You scum throwing shitty cases around and trying to discredit strong players? My problem here is clearly not with you attacking Marv, it's with you "having reads", which make no sense at all. "Having reads" based on literally nothing (and yes, a reason that is self-contradictory is nothing) is not having reads. At best it's a townie who has no clue what he's doing, at worst it's inventing shit for the sake of looking like you're contributing, and to discredit someone. That's something scum does. Now I need to figure out whether you're just always this illogical and should just be ignored, or whether you make sense as town and this is a scum move. I seem to remember you having some pretty bad cases in CT, but I don't remember them being self-contradictory. Will have to read up. | ||
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On February 25 2013 20:18 thrawn2112 wrote: hmm I actually agree with you about acro He's been playing something like a peaceable negotiator.. he's entered several conversations but he takes very neutral sounding positions. "Peaceable" meaning not willing to take stances and call people scummy. He's been mostly arguing logic and the scum reads he gives are pretty weak. For example this post: + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2013 12:35 Acrofales wrote: But he's had that attitude all game. Thrawn thought he was scum for it, you think he's town for it. I have no clue, I'd say he's playing pretty similar to the start of CT, where he was town, but I thought he could be scum. He is aggressive and doesn't give a shit. However, the reasons I doubt him are still the same: he gives no reasons, isn't forceful about his reads and has this post: This post is pointless, but a suspicious mind might think why even bother bringing it up? How does Iamp know that good players are likely town, rather than scum? I don't say anything of it is very conclusive, but given that you and thrawn reach different conclusions based on the same meta, one of you must be wrong and getting some more info on why you think the meta makes him town is important. That's a lot of words/thoughts to write without coming to any real conclusions. He's got an inconclusive read on iamp, and says one of hapa or thrawn might have extra information they're using to make differing meta reads on iamp. Since hapa is calling iamp town, thrawn is calling him scum, that means that the only scenarios where that original statement makes sense is either if hapa is mafia and iamp is town, or if thrawn and iamp are both scum. But Acro doesn't mention any of this....... I suspect because he hasn't actually thought through it to realize how silly it is. It doesn't seem like a real read that a townie would have. You are reading way more into this post than I put there. What I am trying to do is figure out Iamp (and if that helps me figure out you and Hapa at the same time, that's awesome). You seem to think that the only conclusion I can draw from one of you being wrong is that one of you (you immediately assume Hapa) is scum. No: the conclusion I would draw is that one of you is wrong. I'm still unsure about Iamp, but for the moment I will trust Hapa's judgement. I looked at GSL 3 and he doesn't have the same brazen aggression he has here. It's worth reconsidering later, but Iamp seems to be more intent on blending as scum. It's possible he has improved his play to look more like his town play in the last 4 months, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. That doesn't mean you, Thrawn, are scum, it just means I don't think your read was right. | ||
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On February 25 2013 22:11 Oatsmaster wrote: I want to duel you so bad. Why are you defending marv? Do you have a town read on him? Also calling me bad is not cool, especially now that you basically said I am scum or useless town, which means that you dont need to care about my opinions. This is scummy, because you want to discredit me and have 1 less townie contributing Then post something that makes sense. Until then I will treat you as Bill Murray. | ||
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1. His read on Iamp is a bit weird, because I found Iamp's playstyle fairly consistent throughout the game and the one post that suddenly made him have a town read instead of suspecting Iamp was just a continuation from his former playstyle. 2. His defense of Snarfs, because his "post seemed genuine and excited". I don't think anybody is taking offense to Snarfs first post, which I agree sounded genuine and excited. The problem is that if Snarfs was so excited to play, where is he? I would have expected Hapa to understand that and therefore this defense is strange. But I don't agree with your point that missing the post by Iamp about Snarfs is scummy. Missing a post is just something that happens. | ||
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Marv, what do you think of Oats? | ||
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On February 26 2013 02:33 thrawn2112 wrote: i think it's a good idea. if he gets to decide who to duel at the end of the cycle If you think he's scum, which I presume you do, seeing as you want him to duel, why do you want HIM to pick his dueling partner? | ||
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On February 26 2013 02:49 yamato77 wrote: Thrawn/Hapa duel Let's make it happen, people. Hapa just addressed your case. I agree with him (I pretty much dismissed your arguments as not indicative of alignment). You seem to still think he's scum. Is this because of the points Marv and I made? Or is it for something else? | ||
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Iamp, mind elaborating on that read? | ||
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On February 25 2013 13:15 iamperfection wrote: oh god i love the map  but ill have to wait until morning. Dieno posted the map, do you still think he's scum? | ||
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On February 26 2013 00:55 iamperfection wrote: never seen kier not play before alderan has done this this before he was scum you actually replaced him. Alderan was quite lurky as town in GoT mafia. Inactivity seems a bit different, we'll just have to wait and see. | ||
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You haven't commented on Dieno's map. | ||
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On February 26 2013 03:01 thrawn2112 wrote: lol so everyone is calling hapa scum but they don't want him as a potential lynch candidate? Thrawn, do you have an opinion on anybody else? In fact, why do you even think Hapa is scum? The statement that you wanted Hapa to duel came out of nowhere and you haven't responded to Marv. So far, all you've actually said is that I am suspect because of some words you put in my mouth. | ||
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On February 26 2013 03:06 yamato77 wrote: I will admit, Acro's posting in response to me calling for Hapa to duel is out of place. He disagrees with me, but seemingly still believes Hapa is mafia for his own reasons. It's odd that he feels he needs to cut me off there. Why? And why are you not answering my questions? | ||
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On February 26 2013 03:23 thrawn2112 wrote: The main problem I have with Acro's filter is he rarely comes to conclusions about who is scum. In general the longer his posts are, the less they actually say about his reads. He mostly argues with people and he either doesn't come to a conclusion on his read, or calls them town. and it does seem weird that hapa is his scum read yet he's unwilling/unmotivated to lynch him On February 26 2013 03:08 Acrofales wrote: For the record, Hapa is still only one in a pool of players I think are probable scum. I haven't upgraded my read since my response to Marv. I am still in full-on analysis mode. It is also night, and unlike most of the tards here I am hesitant about giving out too many reads at night before we even have a day to go by. However, if you want my main scumread, it's not Hapa, it's you. Your first post was terrible and your play hasn't improved. I know you are prone to rocky starts (lol mason claim), but it's getting to the point I can no longer ignore it: 1. Iamp scum, no town, no scum! For what? On February 25 2013 19:41 thrawn2112 wrote: His town is similar to this game (i'm not familiar with his scum meta) but in this game, he doesn't really seem to be trying to contribute. He seems uncooperative. Also, I don't like how liberally he's been throwing out town reads, especially when those town reads are backed up by extremely simplistic explanations. An utter lack of effort has gone into this read. It's a meta case without bothering to actually consider Iamp's meta. 2. The stuff about me: /yawn. Bad reading comprehension isn't a scumtell, but it doesn't help you along. 3. Hapa out of nowhere: On February 26 2013 02:27 thrawn2112 wrote: what does anyone think about asking hapa to be one of the duelists Look who's the flavour of the day? Hapa! Lets lynch him! Why? Errrr.... wait. There's nothing in your filter about that. | ||
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The Acro might die post Dying N0 would be pretty crappy, but I assume it's a possibility. I'd say we've had quite a productive start. I have managed to get some decent town reads, and some scumspects. The Townies Marv: Marv seems to be pressuring and scumhunting. I have no reason to suspect him for now. Yamato: I didn't like his early stubbornness, but his reaction under pressure felt townie. He also seems engaged and trying to figure things out. Cora: the little fight with Yamato gave me a town read on him. His aggression and putting himself in the spotlight felt like his play from NMM 37. Dienosore: I liked his response under pressure and he's doing his maps. Basically the same as Marv: no real reason to suspect him just yet. Iamperfection: from what I can figure out he's playing to his town meta. Not entirely satisfied with that play, so slightly more cautious than the top 4, but basically green. Oatsmaster: same as Iamp. The nulls Zarepath: entered the thread a bit late, but had a decent entrance. I don't like the list post, though and there are too few conclusions. Need to see more. Alderan: entered the thread late. Case on Dieno is not enough either way. Snarfs: waiting for that excitement he promised. Adam: doesn't seem to be following his scum meta, but I disagree with his case on Dieno and that's the only real thing he has done this game. The Scums Thrawn: On February 26 2013 03:37 Acrofales wrote: I am still in full-on analysis mode. It is also night, and unlike most of the tards here I am hesitant about giving out too many reads at night before we even have a day to go by. However, if you want my main scumread, it's not Hapa, it's you. Your first post was terrible and your play hasn't improved. I know you are prone to rocky starts (lol mason claim), but it's getting to the point I can no longer ignore it: 1. Iamp scum, no town, no scum! For what? An utter lack of effort has gone into this read. It's a meta case without bothering to actually consider Iamp's meta. 2. The stuff about me: /yawn. Bad reading comprehension isn't a scumtell, but it doesn't help you along. 3. Hapa out of nowhere: Look who's the flavour of the day? Hapa! Lets lynch him! Why? Errrr.... wait. There's nothing in your filter about that. In addition, there was no response to this post. It's possible he went afk as a townie, but it came only a few minutes after he asked me a question... Keirathi: Keirathi is a good town player. His play this game is pathetic. Hence he's scum. Hapa: On February 25 2013 22:32 Acrofales wrote: He *might* be scum, but it'll take a lot more for me to have anything more than a slight suspicion. The things that stand out: 1. His read on Iamp is a bit weird, because I found Iamp's playstyle fairly consistent throughout the game and the one post that suddenly made him have a town read instead of suspecting Iamp was just a continuation from his former playstyle. 2. His defense of Snarfs, because his "post seemed genuine and excited". I don't think anybody is taking offense to Snarfs first post, which I agree sounded genuine and excited. The problem is that if Snarfs was so excited to play, where is he? I would have expected Hapa to understand that and therefore this defense is strange. But I don't agree with your point that missing the post by Iamp about Snarfs is scummy. Missing a post is just something that happens. Sylencia: lurking. His 4 posts are non-contributions. I agree with Cora's assessment of the difference between this game and NMM 37. However, him being a lurky newbie gives him a slight benefit of the doubt over Keirathi. | ||
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On February 26 2013 08:34 Hapahauli wrote: I can associate that with being busy as well. Anywho, I don't want to defend Kei - he can speak in his own defense whenever he gets back from whatever he's up to. So reading your "goodbye" post, we're on opposite sides of the fence on Dienosaur. What do you think of my comments on him, particularly his attitude towards Adam? You haven't bothered to explain yourself. Honestly, I feel Dieno is way too easy a mislynch. Could he be scum for his rather erratic play? Sure, but I think he is playing to his town meta. I also think he is lynchbait and that makes me even more hesitant about lynching him. I think the map seems similar to his maps in other games and am willing to give him some time to develop it. If he never steps up his play, then I will be harder on him. Given what I think of thrawn, sylencia, keir and yourself, a Dieno lynch would be really dumb today. | ||
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On February 26 2013 09:30 thrawn2112 wrote: some of my earlier reads are now the opposite of what they were i'm pretty sure that iamp/yamato/oats are town I think there is probably scum among hapa/acro and i think it's way more likely that acro is scum there are a few low contribution players I don't like but chief among them is zarepath Why is there scum in me/Hapa. Can we not both be scum? Also, nice reasoning there, mr. mafia; throwing out names with, once again, no reasoning. | ||
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On February 26 2013 09:50 iamperfection wrote: i would like to do zare vs snarf or zare vs kier i would like to give hapa some more time. Is there anyone that is with me? Tell me again why Thrawn is town. His calling you out is not enough given the rest of his play. I have played town with him once and he played well. I read 2 other of his town games and they were also fine. This is not his townplay. | ||
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On February 26 2013 10:17 Oatsmaster wrote: All these inactive people. We still have more than 40 hours though, no need to be hasty. No, we have 20 hours. | ||
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The fact that he largely agrees with Marv and my own reads before they were layed out clearly in the thread is also a point in his favour, although I don't know anything about Snarfs (never played with him or read many games by him). | ||
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On February 26 2013 11:47 Oatsmaster wrote: why Cora? So they can choose lynchbait and get themselves off that way? Only if a majority of town votes for the lynch bait. The idea is not entirely without merit. One of which is that we have no real way of preventing it. Town has no way of forcing someone to duel (I presume, there may be powers of course), so whoever is going to duel will have to participate enough to challenge someone. Now there's two scenarios: 1. The first duelist is town. In this case, it would be monumentally stupid play for a townie to duel someone he has a town read on. For instance, if Iamp is town, him dueling thrawn would be dumb, because he doesn't believe thrawn is scum (regardless of his reasons, you have to respect people's reads). Putting a townie in this situation is forcing that townie into a scenario he thinks is lose/lose: he chooses option C, to duel his scumread, the thread gets angry, lynches him and is down a townie. 2. The first duelist is scum. Lets assume the second scumread we want him to duel (assuming we can even agree on that) is a townie. Of course he agrees. He then tries his damndest to argue his way out of getting lynched. Maybe the fact that he was compliant persuades some townies to vote for his opponent. Now lets assume the second scumread is another scum. In this case the scum would be monumentally stupid to duel that opponent, as it is guaranteed scumdeath. He therefore picks his strongest scumread. How is this distinguishable from the town equivalent? Only by good analysis. So, we need good analysis in all cases. Might as well do away with the bias from trying to force people to do shit they don't want to do. This way the scumspect also has to explain why he is dueling that person. And he'd better be convincing, or he'll end up being lynched anyway. I like this plan quite a bit better than the original: this one has some of the kinks worked out of it  | ||
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On February 26 2013 12:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Wait so Acro, you are saying that when the thread agrees on 2 duel candidates, they are not forced to duel each other, yeah sure but how large a fucking scum claim is that? The thing is that EITHER of the them could pull the trigger, so assuming that one is town, one is scum, its gonna happen, scum are forced to duel cause if they dont, they are claiming scum and even 1 for 1 trades arent that good. Other thoughts? Did you miss the part at the bottom? He has to explain himself. Of course, if 90% of the thread has consolidated on two targets, going against that is going to take some serious explaining, isn't it? | ||
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Also, restriction of choice is restriction of information. While I think thrawn is scum and I think I'll vote for him regardless of whom he duels, he may yet convince me otherwise (see Marv's story about H1 at the start of N1). Allowing townies a choice in who they lynch allows them an opportunity to argue their way out of a lynch. The flipside is that it allows scums the same opportunity. We'll just have to trust our scumhunting skills to distinguish between the two. | ||
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On February 26 2013 13:13 thrawn2112 wrote: imo adam wasn't really putting himself in the spotlight the way yamato was besides, this line of reasoning is pretty weak. anything else to say about adam? Out of everything that has been asked from you, your contribution is to butt into an ongoing discussion that has nothing much to do with you, to throw in a soft defense of adam here? How about you explain your scumreads instead? | ||
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On February 26 2013 13:40 thrawn2112 wrote: I'm not soft defending adam. Kei is making a real weak case And your duty this game is to defend your null/scum reads from weak cases? Or is it that you think Keir is scum? | ||
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Same question about Iamp: why the change of heart? | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:22 yamato77 wrote: Despite my reads on the two of you before this, I will say that this was a truly horrid decision. Going to have to sit on this for a while. This.While my scumread on Keirathi is still there, he had finally gotten active enough to be evaluated and I was waiting for the answer to some questions. Similarly, thrawn was finally posting sensibly. There are over 12 hours left to duel, and Adam jumps the gun on ALL of this discussion. As if he doesn't want to give any time to reevaluate either of these players. This alone is scummy. However, it is way worse if one of the other candidates for dueling being discussed (mainly thrawn,but potentially sylencia) is scum as well: if that's the case then this could be to save his teammates under the expectation he won't get lynched. It's an association with unflipped players, so don't take that too seriously, but all I can take away from this is scum motivations and I see NO town motivations for this duel. Adam: if you're town, you're a selfish douche who is not playing in town's best interest. I will reevaluate you, but I really feel like policy lynching you for playing like this. I will now fight my instincts, because I don't think policy lyncing idiots is a good idea, but that's the way I feel right now. | ||
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Keirathi's case was ALL about how Adam was only out to prove his townieness. Whether the case was good or not at the time is moot, I kinda liked Keirathi's later arguments for it. What I gave Adam townie points for are subtracted by Adam giving himself townie points for: it shows he was aware of how his posts are different from his scum meta. While I'm not sure it is as easy as that to change your scum meta, it is definitely possible to keep it up for a day, which is all he has done so far. + Show Spoiler [adam's post] + On February 25 2013 13:28 Adam4167 wrote: I call you emotional because I just cant see the logic behind wanting the two people causing the most discussion to duel each other. Mafia that sit in the spotlight almost always fry, and as a general rule, try to avoid it. The likelyhood of either of us being scum is not good as a result. In your hypothetical, Id kill whoever was displaying the least value to the town, as in nomination mafia. We aren't all going to agree with every lynch, and there will come a time when you may have to choose between two people you have some form of a town read on. If we all unanimously agree on all our reads then either a) our reads are wrong because the scum are agreeing with us, or b) the scum team is so inept that they got clean swept. Reemphasizing the bolded part. This is incredibly disingenious. He seems afraid the point where he is going "against the grain" will be missed and therefore needs to reiterate that fact. Especially dropping his name in next to Yamato with the "either of us". Dueling Keirathi brings this to the next step, given his motivation: I want to prove that I can read scum. Except, he didn't. He OMGUS'd based on a general thread consensus that Keirathi is scum. NOWHERE does he actually give a read on Keir, other than: On February 26 2013 14:30 Adam4167 wrote: Now that my internet is recovered: I fully support this duel between Thrawn and Keirathi. Thrawn is taking ownership of his reads, something I mentioned yesterday, I respect that. That case against me was god awful, stinks of nothing-scum-case. It does nothing to illustrate why i'm scum, only that I was using logic that shows I think i'm town and everyone else should think it too. This doesn't say Keir is scum, it says Keir made a bad case. One which in hindsight wasn't even that bad. Adam is overly concerned with looking like town. The whole game he has harped on about how Dieno is scum. If his real motivation is to prove his own reads are so good, why is he not dueling Dieno? I will look at his meta now. What I do know is that Palmar caught him in such a gruesome manner in Hero mafia (it's all on video) that Marv, his scumbuddy, felt forced to bus him early on D1. If that isn't a motivation to try to change up your style, I don't know what is. | ||
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On February 26 2013 19:33 Oatsmaster wrote: Forget the bad decision by adam, Is Keirathi or Adam scum? Stop asking stupid questions and make up your own damned mind. | ||
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On February 26 2013 19:54 Oatsmaster wrote: I want to know what you think. Lol. Someone getting feisty huh? It's all there in the posts above. Why would I "forget" about the single-most salient thing the player has done all game? Anyway, your stubborn lack of reading anything people say in the thread and then asking for the exact same thing moments afterwards is getting on my nerves. I will probably ignore most of your questions from now on. Start reading the fucking thread and posting contributions instead of stupid questions. | ||
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On November 01 2012 08:33 Adam4167 wrote: Well this got interesting. Blazinghand, you are cherry picking my game history to support your meta case. X marks the spot. You ignore more recent games such as Aperture Mafia and wiggles mini mafia II - where I did not launch into cases with my first post - both of which I was town. You're taking a year old game, my FIRST game, and a post that I later admit to being drunk when writing and use that as evidence for aggression which you believe is lacking in this game. Zebras. I handled you more carefully this game because I've seen your horrendous tunnel-vision in TL51 - something that was a large distraction to town. Bolded for emphasis. Adam is not an aggressive jump-the-gun kinda guy as town. Now he claims this hasn't worked for him in Chrono Trigger, however I didn't see him change his style in LVIII or when he replaced into LIX. Why does he suddenly feel the need to change up his playstyle now? Given that his playstyle is wildly different from any previous meta, we have to take it at face value. I have already stated why I think the gung-ho duel is scum motivated, but just to hammer in the point, here is bang bang mafia 2: + Show Spoiler [brief synopsis] + MZ seriously jumping the gun (first post of D3): On June 16 2012 17:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: After the game I'll tell you what you should have done differently supersoft. ##Shoot: Supersoft Ya'll ready for a pro gf snipe? Of course SS flipped town. This then dominated the thread for the next day, until MZ was shot and flipped godfather. The moral of the story: a town Adam would be more interested in the discussion. Shooting before town has had a real chance to consider and discuss is a scum move. It was so in the only other game with a similar mechanic and it is so here. I browsed Keirathi's filter in what seems to be his only scumgame ever and I agree that he was active and manipulative there. However, he now has a ton of town games loading on pressure to perform as scum. I wouldn't put too much stock in Keirathi's scum meta. His play is still wildly different from his town meta, which is far more developed. I still don't see enough in his play to consider him town. For now, therefore: ##vote: Double Lynch Lets just kill both of them. I think there's an excellent chance that one of them is scum and at the moment I cannot decide which one. I admit it seems highly unlikely they're both scum, but neither has given me a reason to think they're town. Seeing as we can kill both of them, I currently see no reason not to. | ||
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On February 26 2013 20:59 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok, I agree that Adam's meta is different from his scum games, and that this was a really stupid, but exciting thing to do, but isnt exactly alignment indicative. I also agree that him pointing out the meta differences HIMSELF and calling himself townie under not much pressure is scummy. So Adam is null, leaning town cause I think that this was kinda too obvious to do it as scum, what was the point? Keirathi. I havent exactly been enthused about his activity so far, its not really alignment indicative though. The few posts he has made make a lot of sense, and at this point I dont think he is scum. He pushed thrawn and adam, his comment about adam claiming that he was so townie makes sense and is a thing that I dont really think anyone else picked up on. Yes I 180ed on Keirathi. Why you ask? Because after a little break, and rereading his filter without being irritated by his disappearance, I like what I see. Great, you have a town read on both of the lynchable players. Who do you want to kill right now? | ||
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On November 21 2012 11:56 Acrofales wrote: I've played with you in 2 or 3 games (can't remember if you were in SSM atm) and you were completely inactive in all of them. So... yes, I have a reason: you sign up and then maybe, if we get lucky, get the 1 post a day that is the minimum requirement to play. Prove me wrong and I will be a happy man! The only way in which I called your play similar to that of Kush is that I figured neither of you was useful to have around. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On November 22 2012 15:31 Adam4167 wrote: Kitaman, I liked what you were saying early yesterday but this post, I do not like: Why are you trying to ward people away from voting for sandroba? You are fear mongering that he 'might' be turning over a new-leaf as scum and as such, shouldn't vote for him on that basis. So far, all that you've done to indicate that you think sandroba is scum is to colour his name in red (along with syllo and marv) with no other explanation. Care to go into detail about why you think he is scum? Calling out a veteran. On November 23 2012 00:44 Adam4167 wrote: I like how syllogism is thinking. ##vote syllogism Justified sheeping. There's some more of this. In general, you are less inclined to blend and more inclined to speak your mind. While going over your CT filter I found: On November 25 2012 13:21 Adam4167 wrote: I find him townie because of his attitude towards the game and its what was lacking in sandroba's play. He sees something he considers strange, so he questions the person on it to try and gauge what the persons motives are, and hopefully gain some insight into their alignment. Some examples: link1 link2 link3 I find scum rarely do this, as they would rather just pounce on the person without actually giving them a chance to explain their behaviour, just in case the person has a reason for what they're doing, then the scum has to go find someone else to fabricate a case on. This is fake-able as scum, yes, but giving people a chance to explain themselves makes your job much harder. Bolded part sounds exactly like what you just did to Keirathi, heh? | ||
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On February 26 2013 23:01 iamperfection wrote: adam is a retard but kier is more likely to be scum he should die. Why does adam's action look like "retard town" and not like scum to you? | ||
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you know that the TL search button works just as well for you as it does for me? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340480 Day 3 was the shot, and Ace actually updates the important posts links. | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:31 Adam4167 wrote: How was this horrible? I think hes scum, he's suspicious of me (but not directly calling me scum). Half the town thinks hes scum, half the town has me null or worse. It should provide a wealth of information, if not a scum death. Which is a 50% OMGUS and 50% sheep. You stated the reason for dueling was because you trust your own scumreads, yet that is not what it looks like at the moment. Explain clearly why you suddenly saw red on Keirathi. | ||
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On February 27 2013 00:56 Alderan wrote: Didn't see the spoiler in your post. It went about as well as I thought it would. He shot someone, and was then shot and flipped GF. Thats exactly why I would assume scum wouldn't do it. Pretty far from optimal play imo.... Okay, what's the reason town would do it? | ||
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On February 27 2013 01:06 Alderan wrote: This was literally his first post. Terrible play, and really set town back because I think we were making some headway, but he did exactly what he said he was going to. So lets go from a townie viewpoint: 1. Make post saying you'll duel whoever you want whenever you want. 2. Get told it's dumb and back down from that point (at least the whenever part). 3. Do it anyway, with no justification. How does this thought process make sense? Also, if you think Adam is a terrible town player go read his other games: he's not. As town, he is outspoken and cocky, but meticulous about his reads and careful about his actions. Why is he suddenly throwing caution to the wind to duel someone he has an unexplained scumread on? | ||
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On February 27 2013 01:09 Alderan wrote: I know that one being stupid and one being useless is not reason enough to lynch both. If I see some significant scum evidence on BOTH then I would advocate a double lynch, but because it's fairly certain they are not both scum then what you are proposing is essentially a random lynch. So lets say we lynch Keirathi. Atm I'd say there's a fair chance he flips scum, but I am nowhere near sure enough to bet the game on it. That means Adam gets off free. If Keirathi flips scum, that is awesome. If he flips town, then we are virtually forced to lynch Adam tomorrow. Possibly resulting in another mislynch, because it turns out he really was just a stupid townie and not scum. If we lynch Adam and he flips "stupid townie", then Keirathi might still be scum. So far Keirathi has made absolutely no move toward scumhunting (past his case on Adam, which in hindsight isn't nearly as bad as it looked when he made it, but is still not stellar). So at the moment, a double lynch looks like by far the best option. It also leaves us with the maximum time (48 hours) and if either Adam or Keirathi start to look way more townie than they do now, we can always just lynch one of them. If we were to lynch one of them right now, my first choice would absolutely be Adam, but I still like the Keirathi lynch too. Chance of both being scum is tiny, but given that I estimate the chance of Adam being scum at 75% and Keirathi being scum at 60%, that means my estimate of at least one being scum is 90%. A 1 for 1 trade seems good to me at the moment and a 90% chance at a 1 for 1 trade feels better than a 75% chance at lynching a scum. | ||
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On February 27 2013 01:24 zarepath wrote: Looking through Keirathi's filter, I don't have a full town read on him, but he doesn't look nearly as scummy as Sylencia or Thrawn, and not as suspicious as Dienosore, and certainly not as counterproductive to town goals as Adam. The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does. If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum. I think we can safely conclude there are nightly scum kills, because Marv died and I don't think we have an insane vigilante running around. An SK with KP when scum doesn't have any would be extremely imbalanced. It's possible they have limited KP, but unless they have serious power roles, I don't see much balance reason to assume they don't just have a standard 1 KP (maybe even with a vig power or so, because 1 KP seems low for a 15-player game). Talking about night actions, there have been no hit or roleblock claims. I just assumed everybody knows how to react, but just in case: if you were hit or roleblocked and know about it, claim that shit. | ||
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On February 27 2013 01:29 zarepath wrote: Why would scum suddenly throw caution to the wind to duel someone they have an unexplained read on? That's what I can't figure out. I can think of some serious association reasons, which I don't want to get into until we actually flip some of these people. An advantage, that is free from unflipped association, is obviously stopping what was clearly a good, productive discussion in town, with both Thrawn and Keirathi, the major scumspects, participating. If Marv and I are on the right track with our town reads, then scum is already in trouble. Shutting down productive discussion is important. Look at what happened? The conversation veered radically off-track and is now a minefield of futility discussing Adam's meta, instead of focusing on scumhunting in the game. If you think you can argue yourself out of getting lynched, with the "that shit is too crazy for scum to pull"-defense, you might even underestimate the risk. The alternative to killing Adam is killing Keirathi. I currently don't feel too happy about killing him without also killing Adam. | ||
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On February 27 2013 01:44 Oatsmaster wrote: Wait what? How did you get those numbers, looks way too random. I do not think that double lynching is the answer, because there is one less nightkill/lynch scum need to do to win. There arent 25 players in this game, there are 15 so we cannot be casual about lynches and killing someone to be 'safe' How do you figure that? How do you even know how many scum and how many town there are? How do you know how much KP there is? If I make some basic assumptions, then all mislynching 2 townies on one day does is change the last day from mylo to lylo. However, if we mislynch Adam and Keirathi on consecutive days, then we have wasted an entire cycle and moved us a day closer to mylo. I'm not saying I will hold to the double lynch regardless of what happens, but I honestly don't see how we can let Adam run loose, given the risk of a mislynch on Keirathi. For me the following stands fairly clearly in my brain:
The only situation this doesn't hold is if Adam suddenly becomes the most townie town anybody has ever seen or Keirathi claims scum. If we lynch both and get a 1-1 trade, then using the same basic assumptions above, we remain at exactly the same number of mislynches until town loss. The assumptions are: 4 scum, no SK, 1 KP per night. This makes it a 3-mislynch=town loss game (given the night start), which is a reasonable assumption from a balance pov. Regarding my percentages: they're gut feeling, they are somewhat arbitrary, because quantifying what my gut is telling me about how likely someone is to flip scum is hard to quantify. However, the general principle holds. If you feel there is a decent chance that both will flip scum, then lynching both to ensure a 1-1 trade is not a bad idea at all. | ||
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On February 27 2013 02:17 yamato77 wrote: I am not as interested in seeing Keirathi die now, regardless of Adam's flip. I disagree with Acro there completely. The correct conclusion to come to here is that Adam is the better lynch of the two, as I outlined. No matter what Adam flips, Keir was legitimately hunting him as mafia, I believe. That you disagree with me is because you haven't properly read my posts. I am also less interested in a Keir flip than an Adam flip at this point. However, I am not UNinterested in a Keir flip. That is what is troubling me at the moment. If we kill Adam and he flips town, we will have wasted a day and Keir will still be a useless lurker with a good chance of flipping scum. I agree with the plan that they have to scumhunt their asses off. | ||
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On February 27 2013 02:42 Hapahauli wrote: Oh damnit sniped by Oats. I've played a couple of games with Kei, and heavily obs'd some more games that he was in. And you're completely twisting my argument. Yes Kei is playing differently than I've seen him play as both alignments in the past. However, I'm voting Kei right now because Adam's actions make very little sense from a scum-Adam perspective (given meta, demeanor, bravery, etc), and Kei has given me no reason to think he's town. If you take Adam's meta, demeanor and bravery into account, how can you ignore his town meta? He has never done anything remotely like pulling a stunt like this. Not in CT, not in WLIIA and not in LIX. The other games I recall from him are Hero where he was scum and a couple of games where he was modkilled for inactivity. Please explain how meticulous Adam, who writes cautious cases deliberating different angles, suddenly throws caution to the wind and says "FUCK YOU, I'M PALMAR BITCHES". What part of Adam's town meta am I missing? | ||
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On February 27 2013 03:11 thrawn2112 wrote: i might switch to double lynch if some of the adam voters will too Err, it's instant majority, so unless you won't be around to hammer Keir if he approaches the 8 votes needed to lynch, you can safely make that statement by unvoting. Mind explaining how unconcerned you seemed about the duel? You were around at the time, so give us your story. Did the duel come out of the blue? It did for me as I was reading it. You seem pretty calm: On February 26 2013 16:45 thrawn2112 wrote: ##Vote: Keirathi adam mind explaining why you had to call for the duel right now? Mind explaining your thought process at the time? | ||
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On February 27 2013 03:19 Alderan wrote: This tunneling on the idea of the double lynch is incredibly scummy. Let it go, there's no way we're double lynching today, stop dissuading people from placing votes... I like the idea of a scumhunt challenge, just wish it was actually happening. Interesting. Why is it scummy to want to double lynch? | ||
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On February 27 2013 03:25 thrawn2112 wrote: acro what are you talking about? idk what you're asking I'm asking you to explain what you thought when Adam decided to duel. What was your opinion of Adam at the time, when he made the duel post? | ||
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On February 26 2013 16:46 Keirathi wrote: Congrats on your e-peen wagging contest. I was trying to explain my original paranoia and figure you out, but you jump the gun instead of giving people time to discuss it. Anyways I'm going to bed for reals now. G'nite. This post is rather vague. Did you feel he was scummy for dueling you? Or did you feel it was a douche town move? | ||
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On February 27 2013 02:51 Acrofales wrote: If you take Adam's meta, demeanor and bravery into account, how can you ignore his town meta? He has never done anything remotely like pulling a stunt like this. Not in CT, not in WLIIA and not in LIX. The other games I recall from him are Hero where he was scum and a couple of games where he was modkilled for inactivity. Please explain how meticulous Adam, who writes cautious cases deliberating different angles, suddenly throws caution to the wind and says "FUCK YOU, I'M PALMAR BITCHES". What part of Adam's town meta am I missing? | ||
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On February 27 2013 03:43 Hapahauli wrote: But that's the thing - have you ever seen ANYTHING like this from scum Adam? No. It's at odds with his town mentality yes. However, it's even MORE at odds with his scum mentality. Why is Keir being a lurker, something Keir clearly knows is a stupid scumtell, still a scumtell? It is clearly at odds with both of his metas and you seem to think scum is more careful to not stand out like a sore thumb. | ||
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On February 27 2013 03:50 Hapahauli wrote: Thing is, I don't think Kei is intentionally lurking or anything. A lot of his posts have suggested he's busy with work/whatever. His lurking doesn't seem intentional, thus the situation is very different from Adam's intentional DERP duel. So if Keir isn't intentionally lurking what do you find suspicious about his behaviour? | ||
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On February 27 2013 04:16 Alderan wrote: This. Oh and night actions could be valuable tonight. Oh and having a vote count gives more information. Oh and lynching both doesn't force either of them to make good arguments that could be helpful. Terrible play. Worse than Adam's duel imo. Nights are valuable for scum. Expecting to rely on night actions is TERRIBLE play from town. Actually I'd argue threatening to lynch both of them makes for a FAR more effective hammer to force them both to start showing they're town. If you say you're lynching Keirathi, you let Adam off the hook, and vice versa. I'm happy to say I'm lynching both of them unless they give me a reason to think they're town. As for information from votecounts, voting for a double lynch gives you that same info. It's simply an extra option on the page. It's why I made my vote explicit, to set it apart from those who simply have no opinion. It IS the least informed lynch, I agree on that with you, which is why we want to gather as much information as possible about it, but as long as both Adam and Keir look terrible, why not kill both of them? | ||
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On February 27 2013 04:05 Alderan wrote: Got off on a rant the first time I answered this question and accidentally closed the tab. Do you really need to explain to you why lynching twice on the first day is less effective than lynching once? No. You need to explain why it's scummy to want it. | ||
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On February 27 2013 05:27 Alderan wrote: It sets the town back a lynch. Period. To advocate setting the town back a night is scummy. I feel like I'm getting trolled, it seems so obvious that a double lynch is a bad idea right now. You are the ONLY one who believes that they BOTH are extremely scummy. If I'm having a hard time trying to pick one to vote for, we're not killing them both. Yeah, you keep repeating your arguments that it's not a good idea. But you said it was scummy of me to want it. I have not heard a SINGLE argument that makes it scum-motivated, rather than something you don't agree with. | ||
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It doesn't decrease time for discussion. In fact, it increases it, we have to wait for the full 48 hours to get a no-lynch. Doesn't dilute voting either, unless you think when two players flip, you can't learn anything from the fact that people voted for BOTH of them. It INREASES motivation for duelers to present cases. We CANNOT no-lynch, so the best they can hope for is that "the other one" gets lynched. If people start leaning towards lynching Adam, then Keirathi is suddenly under very little pressure. As long as there's a serious chance he'll get lynched, he is in deep shit and should be convincing us to let him off the hook and JUST lynch Adam. Same goes for vice versa. Anyway, I'm happy to let this rest, as the discussion has served its purpose: to clarify to me your thought process. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On February 27 2013 05:59 Alderan wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 27 2013 05:40 Acrofales wrote: Okay, you finally answered how you think it is scum-motivated. You're completely wrong, but at least you answered why you think no-voting is scum motivated. It doesn't decrease time for discussion. In fact, it increases it, we have to wait for the full 48 hours to get a no-lynch. Doesn't dilute voting either, unless you think when two players flip, you can't learn anything from the fact that people voted for BOTH of them. It INREASES motivation for duelers to present cases. We CANNOT no-lynch, so the best they can hope for is that "the other one" gets lynched. If people start leaning towards lynching Adam, then Keirathi is suddenly under very little pressure. As long as there's a serious chance he'll get lynched, he is in deep shit and should be convincing us to let him off the hook and JUST lynch Adam. Same goes for vice versa. Anyway, I'm happy to let this rest, as the discussion has served its purpose: to clarify to me your thought process. No you're wrong, and you're not even close. Let's assume it take 40 hours to get to a decision. Then we lynch one, get more information. Then we have a mandatory 24 hour night period. Then we get more information. Then we have a 24 selection period (or if Adam is still alive a 3 minute selection period). Then we have another 48 hours to discuss all new information and assess our situation instead of jumping to that point right now. Except that double-lynching doesn't magically stop the rest of the game from playing out. This whole thing you bring up is only relevant if double-lynching decreases the mislynches we can make. In the *most standard* situation, this is not the case. + Show Spoiler + Doesn't dilute voting either, unless you think when two players flip, you can't learn anything from the fact that people voted for BOTH of them. Adding an extra voting category allows scum to hide among all 3. Also why would we add a category that would be so beneficial to scum? We set up a double lynch option and its extremely attractive if they know both are town. Allowing people to not vote one way or another is allowing them to lurk which hurts everyone. By even allowing the option for a double lynch we have dispersed our votes even more, making a coherent mafia that much more effective. You realize it's instant majority, right? Therefore unless it goes up to 6-6, there could be up to 5 players who don't vote without stating any opinion at all in your "ideal" scenario. If it's extremely attractive to vote for a double-lynch, then you should be jumping at the opportunity of giving scum that option, shouldn't you? It'll catch them all out! If they both flip town you just lynch down the list of apathetic double-lynchers for the win! The motivation should be there regardless. If a guaranteed town is not motivated enough to defend themselves they sure as hell don't give a shit about someone else going down with them. Any added benefit it might have does not compensate the option of a double town loss. I'm done talking about it. I'm pretty sure I hate a double lynch in every scenario, but I'll be playing it by ear every round. That said this round a double lynch would be inexcusable. Player X is voting for lynch candidate A: he clearly wants him dead far more than lynch candidate B. Player Y is voting for neither and has stated he thinks both are scum, with a slight preference for lynching candidate B. Which of these two players do you think is more easily swayed into voting for candidate B? I think player Y. Therefore, which of these two players is giving the candidate MORE motivation to be scumhunting and actively proving he's townie? The one that he has a hope of swaying? Or the one who has made up his mind and is just waiting to kill him? | ||
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On February 27 2013 06:16 Alderan wrote: Let's get a little different convo going. If I vote double lynch, and we make it happen, and it ends up being 2 town, will you agree to duel Dienosore as soon as the next selection period starts? Why you want that to happen immediately? Isn't one of the reasons you don't want a double-lynch because it will eat up discussion time? Why do you want to throw away another 24 hours of it? Other than that, if Dieno doesn't start pcking up his game I have no problem with him dying, although he's far from my strongest scum read (still Thrawn, and Sylencia promoted to second). | ||
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On February 27 2013 06:32 Alderan wrote: I have 0 intention of doing it, wanted to see how you responded. Do you not have any worries the Thrawn thing has been too easy, and if it wasn't for Adam he would have been almost unanimously sent to the duel? No. If he's scum, then both Marv and I were gunning for him correctly. Scum has to be very careful of defending that. | ||
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On February 27 2013 07:13 Alderan wrote: That's enough buddying Marv for one day, big dog. Huh? | ||
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On February 27 2013 07:45 Alderan wrote: I had suspicions on you early, but I those have kind of subsided. I'm certainly not putting you in the confirmed list, more null, but you're asking question I want answered so no reason to push you right now. You were just the only one talking in the thread, and like I said, I'm not completely sold. Then wat was this about? What is the purpose of this post: On February 27 2013 07:13 Alderan wrote: That's enough buddying Marv for one day, big dog. In other news, what do you think of that post by Thrawn? | ||
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On February 27 2013 10:00 Sylencia wrote: To sleep? I went off at 12am... I don't really understand why there's such a need to announce everything you're doing. In any case, if you're asking that were you going to follow up with a question? It's not like I'm incapable of reading a question you post in advance... I need to ask you questions in order to prod you into scumhunting now? What, I have to sing you lullabies too? Your reads so far total: . . . Yeah, that was about it. You're voting Adam, because he is "least useful to town", not because you think he's scum. You have not mentioned Keirathi at all and you have stated repeatedly your reads will come "tonight", whenever that is supposed to be. | ||
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On February 27 2013 10:48 Adam4167 wrote: I will consolidate why I find keriathi scummy, as some people seem to be missing it in my filter. His play is lacking conviction and curiosity. I use this to catch many scum players because it is extremely hard to fake. It is what made my vote on Sandroba so easy in ChronoTrigger mafia, when some of the town seemed undecided. He claims to have no reads, and in the same post, posts about thrawn not playing in line with what he expects from 'town thrawn' - so a read. He doesn't pursue this read with any form of questioning, just leaves it hanging. Then his case on me, and it is a case, he even bolded my name at the top, suggested that I could be acting and how my actions were nefarious. We go back and forth and he ends up arguing that, among other things, I may never have to back up my desire to duel, which is somehow scummy. When this case gets shot down, he starts to back out in a "I never called him scum, don't put words in my mouth" kind of way, which is exactly what I tried in Hero mafia as scum. Since he's gone back to doing nothing. He's produced two reads for the game, neither of which he considers reads, neither of which he calls scum. This case doesn't convince me of Keirathi's scumminess. Partially because you are reading Keirathi's posts rather differently from the way I read them and partially because some of the things you bring up aren't scumtells. I do not trust your judgement with regards to Keirathi at the moment, and with Dieno out of the picture for now, that leaves 0 other people you have seriously commented on. You've given brief town reads on some players, but that is about it. I'm still trying to make up my mind what to do about you. Quite a few people have said that they think that your premature duel could be because you were a triggerhappy townie. Reading your filter again, I can see how they reach that conclusion. However, townies own up to their mistakes. It's clear you realize it was not a good move from a town point of view: On February 26 2013 21:49 Adam4167 wrote: LOL YEP, that quote looks quite bad. I really wish I was scum, it'd make post-game far more bearable. Yet we have, just half an hour earlier: On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote: Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle. <snip> Are you maybe a 3rd party? Regarding Keirathi, I'm waiting for his promised activity before I proceed on him. | ||
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On February 27 2013 11:45 thrawn2112 wrote: dienosoe let's walk though that summary of kei's play Here are your main points about keir, taken from that bottom paragraph: "Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile" "The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn" "Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything." Those things are not suspicious? wtf What is your conclusion? | ||
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On February 27 2013 11:57 thrawn2112 wrote: that dienosore is hella scummy for not being suspicious of obviously scummy keir. keir's actual alignment probably doesn't even factor into it. town dienosore should not be looking at someone who hardcore lurked and only introduced 1 unique point to the thread and seeing them as not scummy. The main question is: is Dieno capable of making coherent cases? I was looking over PU and it is the worst possible game to try and read back into. It is clear from his filter that Risen, at least, was not convinced by his scumhunting. Nevertheless, his reads when he died were on 3 scum. The 3 completely obvious scums, but scum all the same. If I recall from CT, his maps were not useful, but he was actively analysing in a coherent manner and not missing obvious shit like Keirathi being virtually AFK. Insofar as I know, Dieno has never rolled scum. It could be as simple as that. | ||
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On February 27 2013 12:03 Adam4167 wrote: So by your logic, a scum Adam, that was under zero pressure, not in danger of being lynched at all, decides to call a duel on a semi-lurker and put himself up for a lynch as a result? When my alternative, as scum, would have been to sit back and let everyone else go at it and stay out of the limelight. Think about why I am doing this and what my alternatives were. There's only one smart answer and a stack of dumb ones. I've said it a dozen times now. I'll ask again: are you 3rd party? | ||
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Then why can you not promise you won't pull such a stunt again? On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote: Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle. <snip> You have owned up to it being an anti-town move already. If you know that, why are you not able to promise you won't do it again? | ||
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On February 27 2013 12:26 thrawn2112 wrote: I don't have a problem with dieno looking at kei/adam and deciding that adam is the scummier one. The problem is when he summarizes keir's play as lurky, safe, etc and doesn't seem to be the least bit suspicious. That's what I meant too. However, there are players who just do that kinda shit. Bill Murray is the famous example. Oats did it just yesterday on Marv, drawing completely illogical conclusions from a nonsense argument. You can't catch them on making nonsense arguments about alignment, because they do it as both alignments. The trick is to look at whether they are actually trying to figure stuff out. What I meant to say is that I am not yet sure Dieno falls into the same category. If he doesn't, it might just be as simple as that he's very new to playing scum and doesn't know how to fabricate fake reads to save his life. If he does, well, then 90% of everybody's case against Dieno falls flat on ints face, because he falls in the obvious lynchbait category and you have to look deeper. So far I get the impression that Dieno is not putting the same effort into figuring stuff out as in PU or CT, but there is both still time and I haven't fully analysed him yet. | ||
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On February 27 2013 12:29 Adam4167 wrote: Because I don't have faith in the 'lets force two other people to duel' policy. Are we really going to go through all this again? Fine, I'm happy killing you. Now all that's left to figure out is whether I really want to kill Keirathi as well or not. | ||
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On February 27 2013 12:56 iamperfection wrote: acro you still up for lynching them both? i am Yeah. I just confirmed my desire to kill Adam. Keirathi has not done anything noteworthy in his lunch break. | ||
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Syl, if you think Adam and Keir are both town, who do you think is scum? | ||
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On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote: You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. Okay, this part makes sense. However, you seem here to present it as an argument for voting for Keir: On February 27 2013 15:10 Snarfs wrote: I think Sylencia's posts imply Keir has a much higher chance of being scum. (If you think Sylencia is scum). Which it really really isn't. Taking unflipped associations into account is a terrible idea, unless you have a bordering-on-certainty scumread on Sylencia. Even then it's possible that all three are scum or that both of Adam and Keir are town/3p. In both these cases any association is meaningless. However, I am keeping tab of the votes and am not particularly happy about what I'm seeing. People I suspect of being scum are on both sides of the fence. Now neither votes have gone anywhere yet (I believe Adam is leader at 4, but not completely sure), so it's possible they just parked votes to have them there when the time comes. Regardless, I think we should kill both. I actually really liked Adam's last list. It makes a lot of sense. However, I have never really had a problem with his reads, which is why I asked him if he was 3P. His whole playstyle just makes no sense for town. I am managing to convince myself he's the 3P with wincon I invented to fit his play, but I realize that I have no evidence for this, it's just a gut feeling. What he has promised is that if he's town he will be thoroughly unpredictable and will duel whoever he wants whenever he wants at any point in the future again. I cannot possibly see any advantage to town in that playstyle, it is 100% selfish. Keirathi came by in his lunch break to promise reads at night. Never showed up. Story of his play this game. Kill them both with fire. Scum Keir and 3P Adam will burn! | ||
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1. He enters the thread with a post that does absolutely nothing beside announce his presence. He is, however, not present, because his next post is > 15 hours later. At the time it got my alarm bells ringing, but unless Keir's scumplay went completely down the shitter since GSL Open, all we can conclude from that is that he made a stupid opening post and then buggered off without ever contributing. 2. His pressure on Thrawn seems quite okay. Then again, Thrawn was pretty easy pickings. What I get from GSL Open is that scum Keirathi makes sensible cases on low-hanging fruits (Risen that game, on D1, in a similar situation to Thrawn here, if I understood what I read correctly). However, he is never around to scumhunt or update his read, so I have no clue whether he is trying to actually figure thrawn out, or just push a target for the sake of pushing. 3. His Adam read is the only really novel thing he has contributed to the thread. This was after Marv and I had both said Adam seemed to be null, leaning town (at the time, don't rip this quote out of context). However, he says that this wasn't a scumread on Adam, just calling him out on something he didn't like and trying to get a discussion going. The main question is: was this just throwing out a test balloon, or was he actively trying to figure out Adam's alignment? We'll never know because the conversation was cut short and Keirathi is too inactive to tell. As you can see, his inactivity completely prohibits me from drawing any conclusions about what he has done. However, what makes him scum is what he hasn't done. So far the wishy washy both sides bit where I explain how his inactivity is screwing with my reads. The BEST indicator of scum Keirathi is the inactivity himself. There are 3 players who have played repeatedly with Keir: Iamp, Hapa and Marv. Keir has played about a billion town games between GSL Open and now. I can imagine it must be really scary to be scum for the first time in ages and playing with 3 players who are very familiar with your playstyle. Intimidated, and maybe short on time, he is simply not posting his reads like he would as a townie. I will call it the Sandroba defense, because Sandroba did the exact same thing in CT: rather than try to play the game, even when he was at risk of being lynched, he just disappeared out of the game. In that game, I wanted to give Sandroba the benefit of the doubt, because I argued inactivity, in and of itself, is not a scumtell. I was wrong. I learned my mistake. Keirathi signed up for the game, he has played plenty of games to know what is the time commitment required. He is simply not motivated to post. That makes him scum. Kill it with fire. Kill them both with fire! Vote for the double lynch | ||
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On February 27 2013 21:26 Oatsmaster wrote: Acro what do you think about Alderan? Or you agree with all adam's reads? I haven't made up my mind about Alderan. There's some things I think are weird in his play, but frankly, there are bigger fish to fry. I clearly don't agree with all of Adam's reads, or even most of them. What I meant with that I liked the list is that it seems a sincere effort to read the players. He brought a new perspective and is sticking his neck out on a number of issues. I don't expect scum to do that, and I definitely don't expect scum-Adam to do that. Doesn't mean I agree with his reads. The reason Adam is not town is not because his reads are bad, or he is not actively trying to figure out the game. It's because he knows his duel stunt was blatantly anti-town yet threatens to do it again whenever he feels like it. Why would a townie threaten to pull a move he knows is anti-town? He wouldn't. Therefore Adam can't be town. 3P fits the bill perfectly. | ||
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On February 27 2013 22:46 Oatsmaster wrote: Huh, Who is scum Acro? What do you mean we have bigger fish to fry? Im thinking Hapa is my strongest with Alderan close behind. I don't plan on catching the scumteam all in one go. For instance, I think Hapa looks terrible, but Hapa and Keir together doesn't make all that much sense (although a bus vote is possible, I'd have to look closer at vote timings). If Adam flips scum, it makes Thrawn look absolutely terrible, if not, then I feel Thrawn has somewhat redeemed himself from the terrible start, and on top of that, if Keir flips scum, then I don't think Thrawn is scum. Sylencia's utter refusal to give out any reads at all makes him scum unless Adam flips scum. You see where I'm going with this? Individually my reads would be Sylencia and Hapa as front runners for scum-currently-not-dueling. I am not satisfied at all with Hapa's behaviour around the lynch. I think my opinion on Sylencia is clear. He has not given a SINGLE scumread yet in the entire game. I don't agree with Cora that he should have changed his meta, because it's not nearly as easy as that. However, in NMM37 he had a read: Warbaby. He may have been completely wrong, but at least he had a read and he kept analyzing it. At mylo he actually became a bit more active and gave out some other reads. This game: 0 scumreads. | ||
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On February 27 2013 22:36 HiroPro wrote: Duel 1 Vote Count Adam4167 (4): yamato77, Sylencia, cDgCorazon, Dienosore Keirathi (2): thrawn2112, Hapahauli 7 votes needed to lynch. If a majority is not reached in 18 hours by 07:40 GMT (+00:00), both duelists will die. I added gonzaw and Vivax's filters in the "Important Posts" spoiler. Add Zarepath to the Keirathi side of things, he claims he's just not voting because he doesn't want a lynch before all due diligence is done. Double Lynch (3): Acro, Iamp, Oats No vote: Alderan, Snarfs Alderan: you have not taken a stance at all, except to fight VERY hard against a double lynch. Why are you so vague about who you think is scum? Snarfs: your conclusion seems to be that Keirathi needs to die. Why is your vote not where your mouth is? Regardless, the temporary conclusion is that a double lynch is going to happen. To prevent that you're going to have to convince a minimum of 2 people: people on the other candidate that they are voting the wrong way. people voting for a double lynch that the other candidate is town. Get to it. I'm happy with the outcome as it is right now. Lets see what this discussion brings us! | ||
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My gut is still telling me that Dieno is a town lynchbait. I have a hard time placing a scum motive in anything he has said. His thought process seems transparent. But Acro, his reads make no sense. They didn't make sense in CT either. He started with a scumread on Djodref and GK for exceedingly strange reasons + Show Spoiler [CT, with dino pic!] + On November 21 2012 17:34 Dienosore wrote: In an effort to gain your trust so that I can become the first leader, I have two solid scum reads that I feel need to be shared. Djodref: Supports sandroba, though he (weakly) nominated himself. Wants Clarity and Lamp on his team. Has asked a few times to different people what their reads are. Maybe mining for info? Said "I don't think it would be fair for the scum team not being able to kill the party members" Also, put out a hit on a town marv and town Hapa for being dangerous to the mafia. I'd say 80% sure he is scum goodkarma: Seems to be in favor of Sandroba for pres, even though he nominated himself for it. wants sandroba and promethelax on his team. Put emphasis on finding townies, not scummies, which could mean he is scum. Asked questions that feel as if they come from mafia perspective (dealing with towny death and kill immunity). Attacks back at Keirathi after he explains that we dont know HOW the scum kills by saying "scum must be able to remove it somehow" Uses distancing language "town" when talking about possible medics. I'm 70% sure he is scum. Seems to be town hunting. ![[image loading]](http://i49.tinypic.com/20zd73t.png) I even asked him if he was a BillMurray smurf at the time. As for the post you quoted, he explicitly stated Oats was on his watch-list. I don't mind him pointing out that he found that post scummy without following up, because focus is on Keir and Adam at the moment. | ||
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On February 28 2013 00:41 Snarfs wrote: Acro, I think you making guesses at who's 3rd party when we don't have evidence of a third party is not smart. Then explain to me the town motivation for knowing what you did is anti-town: On February 26 2013 21:49 Adam4167 wrote: LOL YEP, that quote looks quite bad. I really wish I was scum, it'd make post-game far more bearable. Yet being completely and utterly willing to do it again: On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote: Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle. <snip> Given the rest of his play, I cannot reconcile a scum mindset. Given this play I cannot reconcile a town mindset. That leaves 3P with a wincon requiring him to win X duels, participate in X duels or something. This wincon would also explain how he got all triggerhappy and jumped in before Thrawn could: he needs to get those duels done. Is it a bulletproof case? No. He could be a townie being a stupid, egotistical, twat. However, I have no evidence from any previous games ever that Adam is a stupid, egotistical, twat (and I've played in like 4 games with him). So I'll go with something that is consistent of what I know about Adam, the player: he has some funky wincon we don't know about that will force him to disrupt this town again and again. Anyway, answer me this: what exactly would you need as "evidence" of a 3rd party? In a game where scum numbers are unknown, scum kp is unknown and the presence of 3P is explicitly made possible in the town wincon? | ||
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On February 28 2013 00:53 zarepath wrote: Do you think that scum would EVER say that??? He has stated, in no uncertain terms, that he KNOWS it was horribly anti-town. Why would a townie EVER say that? | ||
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On February 28 2013 00:58 Snarfs wrote: I would take more than one kill at night as a starting point. Why? I don't think he's an SK. I think he has a duel-related wincon. You want 3P that has no KP? See Marv in PU, see me in CT, see any game ever that has a survivor. All these games had 3P with more-or-less anti-town wincons, yet no extra KP. Why are you excluding their presence here? | ||
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A townie would say "What I did was anti-town, but I will do it again without hesitation"? Anyway, this seems to imply you have a town read on Adam, yet are completely happy lynching him and are just waiting to hammer whoever is hammerable. Explain your town read on Keirathi, or die next cycle. | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:10 zarepath wrote: I can't find that statement anywhere... I found a statement where he suggests people will give him a hard time post-game. Which means he knows he did something wrong, doesn't it? Now what did he do wrong? Well, that's in the post he quotes (quoted by me, and I quoted it from CT): I find scum rarely do this, as they would rather just pounce on the person without actually giving them a chance to explain their behaviour, just in case the person has a reason for what they're doing, then the scum has to go find someone else to fabricate a case on. This is fake-able as scum, yes, but giving people a chance to explain themselves makes your job much harder. This means he knows it was wrong. AKA anti-town. And yet, he is unrepentant and warns that he will do it again. | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:16 Alderan wrote: I don't know who you think you are taking on the leader of the town position, because your play thus far has been so anti town it's ridiculous. First off, I believe he's entirely too disinterested to be playing scum. It's always been my experience that scum early game are usually deliberate, you don't see a lot of afk time from when they are under pressure because it's easy enough to get your scum mates to write a couple responses you can just throw up. Just wreaks of a townie that's given up. On the other hand he has offered absolutely nothing in the way of analysis, which is exactly why I said I would rather Adam live. It's not a complicated situation, I have townish reads on both, thus don't want both to die, if I had to chose it'd be Keirathi. The fact that we can't even choose who we want to kill because you've muddied up the waters so much with the fucking double lynch talk is absolutely asinine. (bolded part) Dafuq? I want some of what you are smoking, man! Have you played on TL in the last year or so? Like... seriously? What kind of deluded idea do you have of how mafia play? Examples of mafia not playing anything like what you're saying:
I could continue this list with about a hundred more examples. Keirathi is scum. He got caught, and a mix of not enough time, and despair at having to prove his townieness against people who know him rather well has made him throw the towel in the ring. | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:21 Alderan wrote: So Acrofales you believe Keirathi is town then? If I thought that why the fuck would I want to double-lynch?! | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:38 zarepath wrote: Acro, you ARE INSANE. Why do you believe both to be scum??? One of them DUELED the other when somebody else was already WILLING to. Why in the world would scum duel each other day 1? Double-lynching when one of the people dueled the other of his own volition is idiotic in this game. Anyone who is either not voting or is voting specifically for a double-lynch need to realize that they are relying completely on mafia being utterly retarded and not playing to their win condition in any way. Oh, dafuq. What is it with you people and your lack of reading comprehension Adam is an evil 3P who cares jack shit about the wellbeing of this town Keirathi is evil scum who needs to die Both must die. I will duel the next person who asks for my reads on adam and keir, because I hereby declare a policy lynch on people not reading the thread. | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:38 Oatsmaster wrote: Acro, is your only reasoning that Adam is a 3rd party cause he said that he would just duel when he feels like it? Or do you have another reason. If you're bluefishing, you missed. My reasons are quite clear. His playstyle makes no sense as either alignment. He must therefore be neither. Him saying he'd duel whenever he felt like it is anti-town because he KNOWS it is anti-town yet is saying so anyway. If he had some strange argument for why it was not anti-town at all in his mind and he thought he had done nothing wrong, then /shrug. However, he clearly doesn't feel that way. He has admitted that he did something wrong, yet will do it again, with no remorse A smaller tell that falls into place is how he was all okay with thrawn dueling Keirathi, but before that could happen, jumped in and dueled himself. Sure, it fits with his earlier statement, but Adam knows town wants discussion time. However, if he wants to be the one to duel, he must do it before anybody else does.[/b] He just got itchy fingers and blew his load, because he was afraid that with both thrawn and Keir active, the duel could happen at any moment there. It's not even that he was going to bed and wanted to ensure the lynch: he was around for many hours afterwards. | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:49 zarepath wrote: Adam MAY be an evil 3P, and that's based on speculation. I'm not entirely against mentioning the possibility, but potentially mislynching two townies Day 1, the day we have the least amount of information, BASED on the possibility of a third party when the OP doesn't even mention any specific third party roles, is idiotic. Do you know what's even more idiotic? Complaining about how awful Adam's early duel was, how much info/work it lost for town, etc., and then declaring a policy duel against anybody who asks you for your reads. That makes you just as anti-town as Adam if you were to fulfill that -- that would be two days in a row that town is robbed of deciding, together, who needs to be up for lynch. You think town can survive that? That's a HORRIBLE policy, and it's honestly just as bad as your horrible double-lynch. Nowhere do I say I will duel them the second I can. Anyway, you know how townies can avoid getting policy lynched? By doing what townies should do and reading the thread. You realize that not reading the thread is a sign you are not trying to figure the game out? Guess who isn't trying to figure the game out? Yeah, that's right! Scum I had said about 5 times that I thought Adam was 3P, yet you didn't read it. Are you sure you're town? | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:54 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah ok your only reason is that he would do it again. What if I told you that maybe he was joking, that he didnt mean it? Do you know how suspicious that looks? He couldve just acted all apologetic but no, he didnt. What does this mean? That he is a stupid townie probably. Haha, look, I'm laughing: On February 27 2013 12:29 Adam4167 wrote: Because I don't have faith in the 'lets force two other people to duel' policy. Are we really going to go through all this again? But more importantly, if that's what you think, why are you double-lynching? | ||
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On February 28 2013 01:58 Oatsmaster wrote: Acro, if adam is an evil 3P who doesnt care about town, why did he duel scum and not scummy looking town? Its not like he didnt have plenty of options Scumslip? How do you know Keir is scum and not scummy looking town? Anyway, here are some reasons to want to aim at scum: 1. 3P doesn't know who is town and who is scum. Lynching someone who looks like scum covers them either way. The duel has to be believable not completely backfire and get the dueler lynched. 2. 3P survivor types just want the game to end asap (best chance of surviving). Extra wincons may require them to delay the end of the game, but lets not speculate too much about that, and just assume). There are two ways ending the game asap: landslide scum victory and landslide town victory. Most survivors are like observers: rooting for town until town derps so much that they are unsympathetic. So why NOT duel your scumread? 3. SURVIVOR. SURVIVOR. SURVIVOR. He cannot afford to be lynched himself (nor shot at night, but in this case lynch is clearly the biggest threat). Guess what gets Adam lynched? Prematurely dueling the crap out of a townie. | ||
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On February 28 2013 02:33 Oatsmaster wrote: So is Adam 3P or not? Im confused, you say he isnt stupid, which means he wouldnt have openly claimed 3P if he was actually 3P right? And he isnt scum, so THEREFORE HE IS TOWN. Now go lynch Keirathi. Why would he openly claim 3P? Do you know how often claimed 3P get lynched? Almost all the time. Just look at Bastard 2: we could have lynched scum and won the game, yet we were afraid of being wrong, did the math and lynched the third party just to be absolutely sure the scum wasn't fooling around as a 3P. Look, I'm not 100% sure Adam is 3P, but it is by far the best explanation I can think of for the way he's playing. Adam is not stupid or egotistical when town (or as scum, btw). So what could possibly make him act in a stupid, egotistical manner? Some wincon that requires that. And if Adam has, for some reason, decided to act like a stupid, egotistical, twat as town, I have absolutely no qualms lynching him for that either. Townies put what they believe is best for town first. Adam is not doing that. His initial reaction was "I dueled to stroke my ego" and every explanation of his behaviour has confirmed that he knows he was not helping town with that action. So yeah. Take from that what you will. I'll believe Adam is inherently not a stupid egotistical twat and his wincon is compelling him to act that way, but that's just me seeing the good in people | ||
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On February 28 2013 03:20 zarepath wrote: Acro, you're not being persuasive of your argument, you're being defensive. If you really want the double-lynch you need to persuade us, not tell people "eh, go read my filter." No I don't. We're cruising for a double lynch. I don't need to persuade anybody at the moment. | ||
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On February 28 2013 03:44 Alderan wrote: Why so defensive bro? We have plenty of time for that, I'm not giving anyone any fodder to take this thread off track. The issue at hand is selecting this lynch, and in my opinion making sure it doesn't go to a double. All you seem to care about is that we don't lynch 2 people. I have not seen you make ANY attempt to figure out which one is the better lynch. In fact, your conclusion after you made the post that implied you thought Adam was town, was to say "but no way am I lynching, I want to hammer whoever I can". Honestly, if they're both town, YOU look far worse than even thrawn. | ||
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On February 28 2013 03:51 Alderan wrote: Killing two people in one vote, particularly when its a vote like this and no one feels terribly strong that either should die, is extremely scummy. It's the first day for god's sake, killing 2 now favors scum incredibly. You have some kind of knowledge you're not sharing with us? | ||
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I was pointing out a scumslip. Bluebaiting? You on crack? | ||
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On February 28 2013 04:09 yamato77 wrote: This double lynch Adam 3p shit is so fucking bad. Like, oh my god, Acro, are you mafia? Do you think I am? | ||
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Do you have an updated opinion on Keirathi? How about Adam? Why are you voting for Adam? | ||
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On February 28 2013 04:22 yamato77 wrote: Additionally, if you think Keirathi is mafia like you say, you should vote for him, because your reasoning for a double lynch is thin and there's not enough solid proof that I want both dead. I don't care that there's not enough proof for YOU to want them both dead. There's enough proof for ME to want them both dead, and it's my vote. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17894996 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17895445 Before throwing your vote onto Keir. If you have questions, I am here. | ||
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I am onto you. If your wincon requires you to duel more players AND survive, you should claim right now. Otherwise town should absolutely policy lynch the crap out of you if you pull a stunt like that again. @Town: Can we please please please agree that if Adam types ##duel ANYBODY without express permission from the majority in the thread, we fucking lynch him (potentially with his target, but HIM). | ||
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That's my first conclusion from this lynch. | ||
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On February 28 2013 05:47 Alderan wrote: Can't say I expected that, impressive call by Adam. How the hell was that Adam's call? All Adam did was follow the thread majority's opinion that Keir was scum and twitchy fingers ##duel him. | ||
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Lets start with Sylencia. | ||
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On February 28 2013 06:29 thrawn2112 wrote: right now my list of people that might be scum is: hapa acro oats dieno snarfs syl that's in no particular order. i'll try to put it in order later. i don't think i'd be ok with lynching anyone outside of that unless we get a couple mislynches first Why not Alderan? | ||
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On February 28 2013 06:30 iamperfection wrote: Acro you think alderan is town? I think it would be weird for him as scum to call it a double town lynch as scum like he did earlier I think he's probably town. I had him scratched off as probable town due to his dogged standpoint and ranting and railing about it. Not sure, though. Have to take the night to think about it, and my other reads. | ||
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On February 28 2013 06:34 Alderan wrote: Can someone please tell me why we're giving town reads during the night period? I seriously doubt you're getting shot. | ||
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On February 28 2013 06:41 thrawn2112 wrote: hapa could be scum becuase I can't set aside the possibility that he could have been bussing. he didn't seem to be too committed to his vote for keir. at the time, his vote actually made me scared to lynch keir because of how passive hapa was about it. originally I was operating under the assumption that I was guaranteed to find scum out of hapa/acro/keir. Imo acro is much more suspicious than hapa, but keir flipping scum relives some of the paranoia that either acro/hapa could be scum. I doubt I'll feel like pushing to lynch either of them unless we get a few unexpected mislynches. iamp is pushing the right thing every time I look at him and he looks pretty townie besides that not alderaan because he was being very vocal about pushing a keir lynch over letting a double lynch happen. i'm reading his filter right now and he looks like someone who had several reads wrong and was legitimately surprised by keir flipping red. Why no Zare and why Oats. If you're going to make a list post, do it properly. | ||
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On February 28 2013 06:48 iamperfection wrote: Its actually an I'm better than each every one of you quality Except me, coz you're sheeping me | ||
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Zare looks REALLY terrible with the Keir flip. | ||
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On February 28 2013 07:14 thrawn2112 wrote: if zare is scum then this would have to be bussing: + Show Spoiler + On February 28 2013 00:38 zarepath wrote: I'm becoming more and more convinced that Adam isn't scum, mostly because I haven't yet found a satisfying answer to why Scum Adam would do what he did, unless it was to save Thrawn from having to duel, at which point the whole thing is a stupid association case. So I went into Keirathi's filter with some more open eyes. I hate first post town claims. Remember, thrawn wasn't on-board witht he "two scummy people duel" idea. He said making all those policies was pointless. So thrawn, why exactly do you want Hapa to duel? Do you think he is scum, or town? What is your ideal scenario for a duel? A strong townie vs a scum suspect? Or two scum suspects against each other? He gets on Thrawn AFTER everyone else has already. This is actually pretty late in the thread. I don't like that Keirathi's first "real" contribution is piling on top of Thrawn with everyone else and not actually contributing much, just asking Fake Interrogator Questions. On February 26 2013 10:50 Keirathi wrote: It wasn't a pointless question (and thrawn never answered it either). Thrawn came out and said "hey guys, forget all this policy stuff, its pointless. Just play!" Then, despite having no other mention of Hapa, as soon as other people start talking about him, thrawn was like "oh yea, hapa should duel tomorrow!" There's not even a read in there, since he took no stance on who *SHOULD* be dueling. It was just jumping onto thread sentiment with no thoughts towards Hapa from himself. After Thrawn again. Marv has been vocal about Thrawn's scumminess all thread, and it's basically the only thing that Keir is going after. It looks like sheeping. On February 27 2013 03:58 Keirathi wrote: I thought it was just a stupid move. Arbitrarily, I think it was scummy because he cut off all discussion about other candidates, and felt like just straight OMGUS because I was trying to get some discussion out of something I viewed as scum motivated. So was it "just a stupid move," or "scummy?" At this point everyone has declared it a very stupid move, so that's an easy sheep opinion to have, but also calling him scummy -- you either think he's scummy or stupid town. Then he had the gall to say that he dueled because I was trying to back out of a half-assed scum read? I feel like this is too emotional... phrases like "he had the gall" just seems too whiny to be substantive. And for two, what happened to his scum read of Corazon earlier on night 0? Oh right, he backed out of it because of further discussion. Hell he even went so far as to say that he wasn't a "tunnel machine" and that he pulls out of tunnels all th e time. But if I try to get some discussion about something that I view as scummy to see if I'm just being paranoid, he gets all holy roller and pulls the trigger on the duel. This isn't a case, it's whining. The situation reminds me a lot of GSL 3 (i think?). I saw something that I genuinely viewed as scummy and brought it to the thread. I took a lot of flak for it, but the difference is people were willing to discuss it with me while they were calling me scum. And as I talked it out more, and got some other perspective views, I changed my read. Why is he bringing this up? What's the motivation? He's basically saying that this is exactly like the time he was town, except only if Adam HADN'T dueled him, and if his scum read was wrong and needed to evolve. That's absolutely not a case on Adam, because in this meta reference he was wrong about his scum read, and Adam is his scum read in this case. Honestly the only connection I can see being relevant in the context of this post is the fact that he was town before. And bringing up a meta case like that, just for the sake of looking more town, in the middle of a post that is supposedly supposed to be your thoughts on Adam, seems scummy. I don't like that he doesn't make a case on Adam and is only whining about being dueled. And I also don't like that he hasn't made a case on anyone/anything else SINCE being dueled. On February 27 2013 03:48 Keirathi wrote: My reads haven't changed. I still think thrawn is likely scum because of his jumping around following thread sentiments, and I still see possible scum motivation in the Adam thing that I was trying to talk about. I'll write up some more later this evening when I get home, but I don't think an hour is enough time right now. It's been a night and he hasn't posted his reads. It's convenient that NONE of his reads have changed... but he didn't even HAVE reads on anybody other than those two people. Sure he still thinks what he thought about them, but he literally hasn't thought ANYTHING about anybody else, and hasn't even bothered to think ANYTHING since? On February 26 2013 16:03 Keirathi wrote: I'd appreciate it if someone could look at my points about Adam and give some comments other than "lol bad". Wanted people to talk about Adam, really wanted it bad. On February 26 2013 14:49 Keirathi wrote: I would be fine dueling thrawn. Why would town be fine with dueling? It's not like Keirathi even had a great case on Thrawn. Although, at the same time, why would scum be fine with dueling? Like others have said, NOT wanting to duel looks worse if you're scum. I don't know how to read this, but it's a very clear statement of intent for somebody whose ONLY read has been Thrawn, and hasn't even built a real strong case on him. ##Vote Keirathi Adam isn't scum. I just don't see the scum motivation for what he did at all. then he pushed keir pretty hard till the lynch. do you think he was bussing? Someone was. And that case was absolutely terrible. I very nearly made a post doing Keir's work for him debunking that case because of how terrible it was. Keir was scum for absolutely NONE of those reasons. | ||
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What's that supposed to mean. You going to make a case on me, or just keep cracking stupid jokes? | ||
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On February 28 2013 05:51 Alderan wrote: See I was thinking the exact opposite actually, and not only because I was one of the most vocal against the double lynch. I think Kier was probably just as inactive with the scum as he was in this thread. As soon as they realized he got dueled and it was going to be close, their best option was to propose a double lynch, mitigate damage and appear pro town when it worked out. It makes a lot of sense. Yeah, I went over the votes and this doesn't really make sense: [spoiler] 1. Thrawn on Keirathi 1-0 2. Yamato on Adam 1-1 3. Sylencia on Adam 1-2 4. Acro double-lynch 5. Cora on Adam 1-3 6. Hapa on Keirathi 2-3 7. Dieno on Adam 2-4 8. Iamp double-lynch ----- Here there is a long break in votes building up. ----- 9. Snarfs on Keirathi 3-4 10. Zarepath on Keirathi 4-4 11. Alderan on Keirathi 5-4 12. Thrawn double-lynch 4-4 13. Oats on Keirathi 5-4 ---- Here the momentum had clearly swung and it was really just a matter of time for the votes to come in. ---- 14. Yamato on Keirathi 6-3 15. Cora on Keirathi 7-2 [spoiler] Basically, I don't think scum was bussing before Snarfs' vote. Not saying Snarfs is scum and was bussing, just that he was the first in a couple of votes that in a few hours swung the momentum clearly in favour of Keirathi. Before that, there was a LOT of anger and frustration at Adam and a good chance of him getting lynched. It wasn't a done deal and scum might have been hesitant to hammer down that wagon, but I think that the people stating clearly that Keirathi is scum before Snarfs' vote are not scum throwing him under the bus. Afterwards? Well, that's another story. I believe there's at least one, and my likely suspect is Zarepath. | ||
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On February 28 2013 12:05 iamperfection wrote: there is no way hapa could say kier wasn't scum regardless of alignment. He would be claiming scum if he didn't say kier was scum towards the end. That's the point, he said it at the start. | ||
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On February 28 2013 12:09 Alderan wrote: I don't know... I think if you, iamp, and Thrawn flipped it would not surprise me if there was one scum. Put up or shut up. | ||
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On February 28 2013 12:12 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah but look at his play Adam, it doesnt look like the Hapa Im used to. Hapa said keir was scum right at the start of the duel. But if keir showed up, it wouldnt take much for hapa to switch to adam I dont think. Anyway, if hapa steps it up, good. If he doesnt bad, and we can deal with him later. Acro, is double lynch scum favoured or town favoured? Please be more specific. I am not advocating double-lynching always. I was advocating double-lynching Adam and Keirathi. I still stand by my vote and think Adam is 3P. | ||
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On February 28 2013 12:13 Adam4167 wrote: After this guttertrash analysis, and the resulting flip - Deino goes into the duel tomorrow or D3 will be the shortest cycle in TL history. Doubt it, we'll have to wait 48 hours to lynch both of you. | ||
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On February 28 2013 12:17 Adam4167 wrote: You do not have a say in the matter of when I do or do not initiate duels I hate town for not killing this guy | ||
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On February 28 2013 12:23 Adam4167 wrote: If you want me to stop initialing duels then stop coming up with garbage like this for scum cases: Push legitimate cases. Then Ill agree with your duel choices. Are Australia and Romania the same thing? | ||
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I guess I shouldn't use running gags from the rest of TL in our cozy little subforum. The gag is that Romanians don't have a sense of humor, so if you don't get a joke, you must be Romanian. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Zarepath I haven't made up my mind yet, but there's some things incredibly off with Zarepath and I want to show town why he should duel tomorrow. 1. The list post + Show Spoiler [post] + On February 26 2013 06:07 zarepath wrote: I'm going to be mostly AFK for the rest of the Night so here are some reads/suspicions for the moment. Hapa The very first thing he does is claim town, which I really dislike. Proposes a policy. Suggests that all Cora wants to do is call Sylencia a dick... stoking the flames The 180 on iamp with not a lot of justification In the end he makes a fairly good defense (last post in his filter). The iamp 180 does look awful, but I can see the reasoning behind it. Oats Super spastic. Tons of questions. The other game I've played with Oats, this is how he played Day 1 in order to get information/discussion flowing. I am pretty sure that is his tactic now. But if literally zero cases or reads come out of it, his behavior is going to look scummy in retrospect. Keirathi Somebody else who soft-claimed town immediately, a thing I hate. Supposedly caught up with the thread but hasn't made his presence known in any substantial way. He needs to have opinions or something. Dienosore I feel like he is the stuffed animal of this game of mafia. He is cute and friendly and makes sweet pictures and hard to hate, but when night strikes he turns into an Agent of Evil and creepily plots our demise. Okay, so not really. His picture is potentially helpful/useful, and I like his tone, but he has really gone out of his way to talk about how friendly he is, which strikes me a little bit of Stranger In An Unmarked Van syndrome. He opts to be the nice welcoming guy to Cora when everyone else is finding excuses to hate him, and it just makes my heart swell. Then in his defense of his defense of Cora, he mentions multiple times how friendly he is. Why is he so concerned with looking friendly? Town doesn't need to worry how they look, just what they accomplish. Note that he also went out of his way to express how he is NOT good at catching scum. Why would town advertise that? Don't they want their arguments to hold sway? I want to see more of his conclusions from his mapping; undoubtedly several occur to him while he does the research. Adam What does Adam think about people not named Dienosore? Hard to tell. Snarfs Unless Snarfs has been mafia a million times in a row, his first line was a super annoying soft-town-claim that is not justified, in my opinion. Now that he's caught up I wonder what his other thoughts are. Sylencia I mentioned this earlier, but Sylencia looks the scummiest right now of all of the players. Others have contributed less/none, but the few things Sylencia has popped in to post fall easily under the Scum Motivated category. He has more work to do to stop looking scummy than anybody else. Just check his filter and the case makes itself. iamperfection His player list comment (assuming town will have the good players for some reason) sounds awful but when looked at, I can understand how it's simply just saying that there are so many good players we're bound to have at least one as town. His logic fails to account for the fact that mafia will also have good players, so it's not like town will now have it easy . He calls someone town REALLY early in the game, which something you can usually only do with confidence when you are scum. He calls Snarfs scummy also very early in the game, then tells other people to discuss it. I think this is kind of null, but worth bringing up because it was a unique read. He goes out of his way to answer for corazon, tell him who is scum. I don't know that I can see scum acting this... forwardly. He is unforgiving in his opinions and doesn't really bend at all to town, and he just has this weird vibe. I get a sense of unique thoughts coming from this man. He gives a bunch of town reads, which is apparently something he just does. This man is a Wild Card. I think I like him. (And I can also understand how someone would be certain that he's scum and then suddenly decide he's no longer scum.) This post looks like it's contributing, but it isn't. Lets go through the list:
A list of all these people, yet only 1 conclusive read. What does this list do best? Make it look as if Zarepath is contributing to the game and scumhunting. However, he clearly isn't. This is not figuring things out, it's giving a vague commentary. 2. A really angry post about why thrawn should have been dueled. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2013 23:35 zarepath wrote: I can't believe this happened. This seems far from the best duel we could have set up today. Thrawn switches his suspicions YET AGAIN: And then he bounces from hapa/acro to FOR SURE wanting to duel... Keirathi? But not to the point of ACTUALLY dueling him... just to the point of asking what OTHER people think about him dueling him. And his case came down to Keirathi only having a case against Thrawn based on meta... but isn't that, like, every single person in the thread? Everyone is surprised at Thrawn's performance this game based on his meta. Why isn't Snarf's tenuous Thrawn case scummier than Keirathi's? So why Keirathi? Why all the bravado about volunteering to be a duelist? No townie should want to be a duelist unless they feel super confident in their read -- at which point, they just ##Duel, not ask "DAE think my latest/greatest soft read is scum???" And in the end, he doesn't even have to do it. Thrawn made out like a BANDIT with this duel. I know I should be talking about adam/kier right now, but HOLY COW so many people got out of this one super well, including all of the lurkers/low contributors. All Sylencia has to do is vote and justify it; he doesn't have to forward unique reads on anybody but the two people. We could have spent 24 hours testing low contributors and seeing who their reads are when it has to be out of 11 other people, instead of just out of a pool of 2. Our ability to gain information has been CRIPPLED by a premature duel. We CANNOT do this again tomorrow. Marv was killed for his analysis, and his number one scum read was Thrawn.... and he's not even up for a duel? Even Thrawn himself seemed fatalistic about it (which isn't very townie IMO), and the fact he was "rescued" from this duel super early in the day is incredibly anti-town. Look how angry Zarepath is. Thrawn escaped the duel. Sure, it pissed me off too, but I had thrawn as my top scumread. Zarepath did mention him earlier (in passing), but he got casually dropped off the list. Now he comes roaring back. Why? Nobody knows. But making a big angry case on someone who can't get lynched is a great way of looking useful while not being useful in any way at all. 3. The Adam-Keirathi dilemma + Show Spoiler + On February 27 2013 12:03 zarepath wrote: @Thrawn: It's pretty clear why I didn't vote for Adam -- I explain it right at the end of my post. Because this format works off instant majority and not a time frame, there is no way to unvote out of a majority should something big come up that shakes everything up. I would rather wait for everyone to chime in before I place my actual vote, because if I contribute to an instant majority, I basically let half of town get out of this entire cycle without having to make a stake on anything. So yes, my vote will be on Adam, but not yet. This isn't Zare's first post about the matter. He does a long analysis of Adam and concludes he is scum. The analysis wasn't half-bad. The problem is this lack of commitment. There were 3 votes on Adam at the time. Why this fear of committing to your read? Well... because you may be forced to bussing your scumbuddy. Adam made his long post and the Adam wagon was losing momentum. So Zarepath made a long unnecessary case (see below) and jumped onto the Keirathi lynch. Note that at this point he is committed. If it's a bus, it's with conviction. 4. Not reading the thread + Show Spoiler + On February 28 2013 01:38 zarepath wrote: Acro, you ARE INSANE. Why do you believe both to be scum??? One of them DUELED the other when somebody else was already WILLING to. Why in the world would scum duel each other day 1? Double-lynching when one of the people dueled the other of his own volition is idiotic in this game. Anyone who is either not voting or is voting specifically for a double-lynch need to realize that they are relying completely on mafia being utterly retarded and not playing to their win condition in any way. Nuff said. For Zarepath: picking your case apart. + Show Spoiler + On February 28 2013 00:38 zarepath wrote: I'm becoming more and more convinced that Adam isn't scum, mostly because I haven't yet found a satisfying answer to why Scum Adam would do what he did, unless it was to save Thrawn from having to duel, at which point the whole thing is a stupid association case. So I went into Keirathi's filter with some more open eyes. I hate first post town claims. You keep repeating that, but claiming town is not a scumtell. About 90% of TL claims town at one point or another and plenty of people do it in their first post. There's even the Kenpachi rule, which probably doesn't work anymore, if it ever did, which states that the first person to attack Kenpachi (or whoever invokes the rule) for claiming town, is scum. It is still used from time to time. Remember, thrawn wasn't on-board witht he "two scummy people duel" idea. He said making all those policies was pointless. So thrawn, why exactly do you want Hapa to duel? Do you think he is scum, or town? What is your ideal scenario for a duel? A strong townie vs a scum suspect? Or two scum suspects against each other? He gets on Thrawn AFTER everyone else has already. This is actually pretty late in the thread. I don't like that Keirathi's first "real" contribution is piling on top of Thrawn with everyone else and not actually contributing much, just asking Fake Interrogator Questions. Being late and agreeing with people isn't a scumtell. In fact, the questions Keirathi asked weren't bad when he followed them up. The problem was that it was his ONLY contribution and he ignored everything else happening in the thread. But he got called out on that at the time (and ignored it). After Thrawn again. Marv has been vocal about Thrawn's scumminess all thread, and it's basically the only thing that Keir is going after. It looks like sheeping. This was the follow-up that made sense, and he was answering the question I asked him (why he bothered dropping in to ask a pointless question and not comment on any of the myriad of things happening in the thread at the time). So was it "just a stupid move," or "scummy?" At this point everyone has declared it a very stupid move, so that's an easy sheep opinion to have, but also calling him scummy -- you either think he's scummy or stupid town. He is not saying he thought both at once, he's saying he thought it was a stupid move, and then later thought it was scummy. The opinion wasn't novel, it was a rewording of the scum motivations Yamato and I had suggested. Either way, there is nothing inherently scummy about this post by Keirathi. I specifically asked him about his thoughts... it's not as if he decided to dump unoriginal thoughts in the thread for no apparent reason. I feel like this is too emotional... phrases like "he had the gall" just seems too whiny to be substantive. Being angry about getting in a duel you don't think you deserve is not a scumtell. This is an observation without any kind of conclusion. Why is he bringing this up? What's the motivation? He's basically saying that this is exactly like the time he was town, except only if Adam HADN'T dueled him, and if his scum read was wrong and needed to evolve. That's absolutely not a case on Adam, because in this meta reference he was wrong about his scum read, and Adam is his scum read in this case. Honestly the only connection I can see being relevant in the context of this post is the fact that he was town before. And bringing up a meta case like that, just for the sake of looking more town, in the middle of a post that is supposedly supposed to be your thoughts on Adam, seems scummy. I don't like that he doesn't make a case on Adam and is only whining about being dueled. And I also don't like that he hasn't made a case on anyone/anything else SINCE being dueled. Meh. I guess you could read this as a sinister motivated plot to bring his town meta into it, but honestly I read it as Keirathi being frustrated at being dueled out of nowhere when he wanted to duel his real scumread. It's been a night and he hasn't posted his reads. It's convenient that NONE of his reads have changed... but he didn't even HAVE reads on anybody other than those two people. Sure he still thinks what he thought about them, but he literally hasn't thought ANYTHING about anybody else, and hasn't even bothered to think ANYTHING since? Wanted people to talk about Adam, really wanted it bad. Why would town be fine with dueling? It's not like Keirathi even had a great case on Thrawn. Although, at the same time, why would scum be fine with dueling? Like others have said, NOT wanting to duel looks worse if you're scum. I don't know how to read this, but it's a very clear statement of intent for somebody whose ONLY read has been Thrawn, and hasn't even built a real strong case on him. Town is inherently fine with dueling, it's the only way of getting stuff done this game. Find scum and make sure he gets dueled, if he doesn't do it yourself. Scum, however, would only be fine dueling if they think they can get away with it and not die. In general scum would be far less likely to "be okay" with dueling. However, the question was loaded: there was no alternative answer Keirathi could give without looking scummy. He had called Thrawn scum all game, how could he suddenly back out of a duel with him, regardless of alignment? So the answer doesn't actually say Keirathi was fine with dueling, because he was forced to, or go through a shitstorm of questions and end up getting dueled anyway. So what this case is, is a summation of points, some of which might be minor scumtells, but none of which actually say why Keirathi was scum. At the time (and now still) this felt like a really fabricated case to bring new points to a lynch which was really simple to motivate. Keirathi was scum for not doing anything. You don't need to read scum into every single one of his posts to see how his play was scum-motivated: he was not scumhunting, not pushing his reads and not playing in any way townie. The MAIN problem with a case like this, is that I can go over anybody in this (or any other) game's filter and cherrypick some sentences. You don't look at the big picture, you don't explain why these posts have a scum motivation and you ignore obvious town explanations in favour of convoluted scum ones (like, why would town be fine with dueling?) | ||
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On February 28 2013 13:39 thrawn2112 wrote: acro so who is your main duel candidate? what do you think about oats, and what were you going to say about syl? About syl? I've said all there is to say about him. Syl is scum. He has done nothing, said nothing and given 0 reads. I didn't think it was possible for his activity level to drop off from the NMM37 level, but it has. Also, his vote is terrible. Imho it's worse than Dieno's. Regarding your Alderan/Oats/Zare idea: I agreed, which is why I thought Zare. I remembered the case being bad and the terrible list. However, didn't find anything. Oats seems REALLY unlikely due to how actively he was taunting Marv. That's some serious balls for someone who just got his ass kicked by Marv in LIX. Anyway, I'm all for Sylencia dueling Dieno tomorrow. I'm over my Dieno is cute and therefore town kneejerk reaction. Lets do this. I've seen Sylencia get active under pressure of lylo. Hopefully a threatened lynch will bring out the same. | ||
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On February 28 2013 17:54 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah Dieno has been really careful with his play, not really ruffling anyones feathers, he seems WAY MORE serious than his CT game with the nice poster. Also basically fucked off in the last day. Im not so sure that Syl is scum though :/ And hapa is null cause lately he seems like town hapa, not useless lurky scum hapa. What has Sylencia done to make you think otherwise? | ||
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You state that me suggesting there's a 3P in Adam is bad play or scummy: what does offputting mean in that sentence? Yet 5 lines down you are doing it yourself for thrawn. Explain. | ||
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What happened to make Oats town and Cora scum? | ||
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Also, if you simply weren't around, then you never got a chance to change your vote and thus that point is moot. For all we know, the final scum WAS ranting and railing in the scumQT, but you weren't there listening. You need to spend less time defending yourself: the main point is that you're lurking and were defending Keirathi. Those are points that cannot be defended against as they are currently true. You just have to ignore the naysayers and point to the scum in the thread, show us why they're scum. Why other people's scumreads are wrong and at least show that the limited time you have is put to good use. Lets start: why do you think Dieno isn't scum? | ||
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On March 01 2013 00:39 Oatsmaster wrote: Do you understand the difference between not scum and town? Apparently not. Not scum = not scum. Could be 3P or town. I got this, bro: | ||
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On March 01 2013 00:45 Alderan wrote: So this is what happened. Acrofails first thinks both have a good chance of being scum. Acrofails then thinks that one is "not scum" Acrofails then assumes that the person that dueled someone he believed was scum must be a 3rd party, with no evidence. Acrofails then urges everyone to kill them both, when all he would have to do to see if his 3p theory is right is wait until the selection period. TLDR: Acrofails tried to kill someone he knew was not scum, someone who had initiated a duel with Kier who he believed to be scum. I will say it again: Adam is not town. Now you can disagree with me all you like, but as long as I believe that I want him dead. At first, I believed there was a good chance he was scum, the list post changed that. However, it didn't make him town, just not-scum. I can think of no reason why Adam, who I have played quite a bit with before, would do that. Adam is a collected and deliberative player, not an impulsive egotistical crazy guy. Therefore, Adam is not town, and if I were given the opportunity to kill him, I would. I don't trust 3P, because their wincon is not to win with town, but to do something else entirely. Sure, for now Adam allied himself with town, and that's great. But there's no reason to think that will stay that way. Now tell me, how does me wanting to kill someone I suspect of being 3P make me scum. Also, AlDERPan, stop calling me Acrofails, it's not funny or productive. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:02 Alderan wrote: "This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia"- Where you can double lynch someone you think is not town day 1 and not be scummy.... I believe that's normally the case | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:06 Alderan wrote: I just don't understand taking the meta approach when the far more likely scenario is that he's generic town, not worried about dying and knew he was a good enough player to win against a lurky scum. I don't know in these cases I tend to go with the most obvious choice, I've gotten burned too many times trying to over think it. And Oats you were very vocal about Sylencia discussing 3p and how scummy that was. Where's that train of thought now? **** NEWSFLASH **** Today in Liquid, a stunning revelation was made. Different people have different approaches to the game. I know, this amazing story shocks us all, but we will just have to live with it. You say that your explanation is the simplest explanation of the evidence. I say mine is. I say the evidence of Adam going batshit insane is not explained by Adam=town. You think it is. We disagree. So deal with it and stop being a giant douche about it. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:10 yamato77 wrote: Acro, I think you're mafia. While you had a scum read on Keir, you did absolutely nothing to get him lynched. Your platform this game was not lynching mafia, it was lynching Adam for being 3p. Something was insanely fishy about this from the beginning, like I thought, and I've found it. His initial reaction to the duel is to pressure Adam. Here he argues against Adam's case on Keirathi and calls it "not convincing". To me, this would immediately imply that he is not apt for lynching Keirathi over Adam, which is an important thing to note in the timeline of events that Acro undertakes this game. His initial stance is to set up his Adam as 3p platform and not talk about Keirathi directly. Not lynch Keir. Here he makes his case on Keirathi, but his conclusion is still not lynch Keir. It's lynch them both. It's mafia mentality, because while this is a semi-bus, he is in effect NOT taking a stance with the"double lynch" outcome, which is a decent one for himself. It both increases Keirathi's chances of survival and makes Acro look better for him to call Keir scum, but refuse to vote him for the reason that Adam is "Third Party" and should die as well. Especially since Adam was the vote leader for most of the day, and I was pushing him as mafia. Again, as if there was any question about his agenda, he gives it to us here in big and bold. Beating a dead horse, but you get the point. I give him the townie option, lynch scum, but he refuses. It's almost too easy. Inaction is the best action. He's not actively pushing Keir as mafia, he's pushing a double lynch, which he is completely okay with. While 1 for 1 trades favor town, the object of the game is to lynch mafia, not lynch people you think might be third party along with mafia. But does he even really want Keirathi to die, necessarily? No, he doesn't. Amidst me pushing for an actual lynch and getting people to consolidate on Keir, we have Acro still pushing his double lynch theory, even though he supposedly thinks Keir is mafia. Why is this an undesirable outcome in Acro's mind? Isn't lynching mafia the point of the game? This all hinges on his "Adam is third party" thing which is complete bullshit. He has no reason to believe there exists a third party in the game. Look at his reply to Hapa here: He argues against Thrawn as 3p, because Hapa has no proof, yet this is the exact way he posited Adam was 3p. He had no proof, and just fit an idea of a POSSIBLE role, that he doesn't even know exists, to push his agenda of a double lynch. He seems so utterly convinced of Adam being third party despite there being no proof, or anything beyond ONE impulsive duel of a person that actually did flip mafia. He's stuck with this theory because without it, it's absolutely clear that he was playing in a mafia favored way, with a mafia mentality. So let me ask you this, do you really think Adam is third party? I don't. Plus, talking about town in third person like that is totally a scum slip. Zzzzzzz. Adam's case WASN'T convincing. Anyway, I didn't NEED convincing, because I already thought Keir was scum for being a completely useless lurker. Why do you think Keirathi's name is big bold and RED in this post: + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2013 07:57 Acrofales wrote: The Acro might die post Dying N0 would be pretty crappy, but I assume it's a possibility. I'd say we've had quite a productive start. I have managed to get some decent town reads, and some scumspects. The Townies Marv: Marv seems to be pressuring and scumhunting. I have no reason to suspect him for now. Yamato: I didn't like his early stubbornness, but his reaction under pressure felt townie. He also seems engaged and trying to figure things out. Cora: the little fight with Yamato gave me a town read on him. His aggression and putting himself in the spotlight felt like his play from NMM 37. Dienosore: I liked his response under pressure and he's doing his maps. Basically the same as Marv: no real reason to suspect him just yet. Iamperfection: from what I can figure out he's playing to his town meta. Not entirely satisfied with that play, so slightly more cautious than the top 4, but basically green. Oatsmaster: same as Iamp. The nulls Zarepath: entered the thread a bit late, but had a decent entrance. I don't like the list post, though and there are too few conclusions. Need to see more. Alderan: entered the thread late. Case on Dieno is not enough either way. Snarfs: waiting for that excitement he promised. Adam: doesn't seem to be following his scum meta, but I disagree with his case on Dieno and that's the only real thing he has done this game. The Scums Thrawn: In addition, there was no response to this post. It's possible he went afk as a townie, but it came only a few minutes after he asked me a question... Keirathi: Keirathi is a good town player. His play this game is pathetic. Hence he's scum. Hapa: Sylencia: lurking. His 4 posts are non-contributions. I agree with Cora's assessment of the difference between this game and NMM 37. However, him being a lurky newbie gives him a slight benefit of the doubt over Keirathi. After Adam dueled him, Adam shot WAAAYYYY UP in my scumometer and because I know that Adam and Keirathi cannot both be scum, this caused Keir to drop down. Of COURSE I don't mention Keirathi when figuring out Adam, because there was nothing to say. Adam's case being unconvincing says NOTHING about Keirathi and maybe something about Adam. That's the first part of your case. I haven't even read the rest yet, but I assume it's just as stupid. If I'm still alive tomorrow and need to address it further, I will. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:21 yamato77 wrote: I showed you exactly how he doesn't care about the lynch. ... Oh, I really did. Toward the end there's no way I would have accepted an Adam only lynch. Keirathi only was okay, but I clearly cared enough to incessantly push for my own read, which was kill both a scum AND a third party. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:25 yamato77 wrote: You specifically tried to stop people from voting Keirathi, I showed it in the fucking case. Now you're straight up lying. Mafia. Was Adam in any danger of getting lynched? No, it was 6-3 at the time I made that post. I didn't want Keirathi hammered, because I wanted them both dead. You're an idiot. I'm done and going back to preparing my nightly reads. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:36 yamato77 wrote: Both of them have meta of looking scummy as town. It's not a good defense, but I am less convinced of either of them than I am of my own fucking scum read that is fucking obvious. You are so wrong it hurts. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:48 thrawn2112 wrote: so are either of them scum? iamp and thrawn went from wanting keir dead (at a time when most people wanted adam dead) to wanting both keir + adam dead. acro went from wanting adam dead (at the time most wanted adam dead) to wanting both kier + adam dead (at the time when most people wanted keir dead) and you are saying that acro is most likely town out of that group? Show me one moment in this game. A single moment anywhere after D1 started where I did NOT want Keir dead. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:52 yamato77 wrote: I just played against a really good bus, where two scum had each other from day 1 as red reads. Don't act like this is the first time it would have ever happened. This isn't an argument, it's a baseless accusation inventing bullshit to paint me as scum. In lalaland the sheep are blue. I have therefore proven that sheep CAN be blue. Sheep MUST be blue. It's a non-sequitur. Go fish. | ||
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1. Funky (supremely useless opening post with no follow-up) 2. Scum (dropping in only to pressure someone already being pressured, then buggering off again) 3. Scum (convoluted Adam case) 4. Not looking townie (Adam went nuts) 5. Not looking townie (Keirathi's lunch break) 6. Scum (Keirathi never followed up anything and went MIA) I even stated it with percentages somewhere. Keirathi didn't look as bad at times 4 or 5, but there was no way he looked like town and I wanted to kill him. At times 4 and 5, I would have preferred an Adam lynch over a Keir, but I still wayyyy preferred a double-lynch. | ||
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The Townies Thrawn: was Keir's primary and pretty much only real scumspect. In return wanted Keir dead. I just don't see that happening, regardless of how bad his D1 was. iamperfection: just look at his filter. It also helps that his reads at night made perfect sense to me. Also, Keir is red and one of Iamp's prime suspects. He wants Keir dead from the very start of the duel. Yamato: after his pants-on-heads case against me and his stupid arrogant threat to call me out, I read his filter REALLY hoping that he was scum. However, it's just not there. Yes, he's arrogant and tunnely, but he is scumhunting his ass off and calling things as he sees them. Snarfs: I honestly wasn't expecting to paint Snarfs green, because he had been flying completely under my radar. However, while his filter is short, it's to the point. Everything he says seems like he is actively reading the thread and figuring stuff out. Was on the right side of the Keirathi lynch from the beginning, so more townie points for that. Oatsmaster: while I am not as strongly on the Oats is town wagon as yesterday, I see nothing in his filter that points me to scum, and I seriously doubt that Oats would take stabs at Marv, if he were scum. In general, he is more annoying than I have seen him be as scum. The problem I have is with his slightly wishy-washy stance on Keirathi/Adam. He was very stand-offish and seemed to be gauging thread response before picking a side. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2013 19:33 Oatsmaster wrote: Forget the bad decision by adam, Is Keirathi or Adam scum? On February 26 2013 20:59 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok, I agree that Adam's meta is different from his scum games, and that this was a really stupid, but exciting thing to do, but isnt exactly alignment indicative. I also agree that him pointing out the meta differences HIMSELF and calling himself townie under not much pressure is scummy. So Adam is null, leaning town cause I think that this was kinda too obvious to do it as scum, what was the point? Keirathi. I havent exactly been enthused about his activity so far, its not really alignment indicative though. The few posts he has made make a lot of sense, and at this point I dont think he is scum. He pushed thrawn and adam, his comment about adam claiming that he was so townie makes sense and is a thing that I dont really think anyone else picked up on. Yes I 180ed on Keirathi. Why you ask? Because after a little break, and rereading his filter without being irritated by his disappearance, I like what I see. On February 27 2013 13:41 Oatsmaster wrote: Im fine with killing both at this point, Adam wants to pick a fight WITH EVERYBODY and cause chaos. Keirathi has been doing absolutly NOTHING. And I want to kill him for being a bad townie. Yes I dont think he will flip scum, but come on, this kind of play absolutely kills town. For now I will give him the benefit of the doubt: he was an unsure townie hoping other people's reads would reinforce his own ideas. However, he does claim to want to kill two town reads. The sentiment is understandable at this point, though. Regardless, I am still leaning town on Oats. Zarepath: I said most of it yesterday. Despite being mostly on the wrong side of the lynch and having some bad-looking patches in his filter, he seems genuinely interested in figuring the game out. Even though he had a town read on both Adam and Keirathi, he didn't sit still with it and just vote whatever, but tried to figure it out. Hapa: I had already prepared the whole story about why his vote could be a bus. I was not convinced by the rest of Hapa's play at all. And then he went and made a list post with scum reads agreeing almost 100% with my own. If he is bussing his entire team, I am happy to let him. Hilariously bad play D1, but I can see no harm in lynching down our combined list of scummers. Adam: rogue 3rd party, but definitely not scum. Listen to him, use him, but do not trust him. The Scums Scum is hiding here, but more evidence is required to discern them from the bad-looking townies. In order of scummyness (least to most). Alderan: Very outspoken and wears his opinions on his sleave. Thinks Adam is probably town, but no opinion on Keirathi until wayyy later. He doesn't even mention Keir except in passing while discussing how townie Adam is. Is extremely disruptive. Could theoretically be someone like Mocsta, who gets in shouting matches, however for now, seems okay. If Dieno flips town, then this guy has been hard on a town lynch and stand-offish and unwilling on bussing his scumbuddy. Reconsider after Dieno's flip. Cora: the early impression I got that he was actively trying to figure stuff out is kinda gone. He falls in the group of people who are wishy-washy on the lynch vote. He wants to kill Adam, but thinks both are probably town. However, I really disliked his answer to why he was voting alongside his strongest scumread. If you have a town read on both and a scumread on your fellow voter, why not switch to the other townie (unless he thought Sylencia was bussing)? Now that that other guy has flipped red, it looks pretty bad. Sylencia: would have been surefire scum, but I can't shake the feeling that he's just lurky town caught on the wrong end of the lynch. He needs to be forced into the spotlight, and I think he'll show red. However, it is very hard to discern his playstyle this game from his play last game, where he was town. IMPORTANT: Sylencia and Cora are not scum together. There is no way they have set up this double bus, given Sylencia's activity level and the early death of Keirathi. Dieno: now that I am over my love for cute fluffy players and maps with squiggly lines, it is clear that Dieno has not contributed anything this game. In both CT and PU he had reads. They may not have made the greatest amount of sense, but they were clear reads. This game? Nah, most wishy washy stuff ever. Kill him tomorrow. Proposed duel: Sylencia vs. Dieno | ||
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On March 01 2013 03:56 yamato77 wrote: If people don't want me to duel Acro, they need to respond to my case in full. Mind stopping the tunnel for a second and looking at other people? You had a scumread on Hapa, what happened to it? What do you think of the lurkers and Cora? | ||
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I have a proposal: I will duel Dieno. I prefer a Dieno-Sylencia duel, but given Yamato's position, I am very afraid of the duel between me and one of my stronger town reads. It would be mindnumbingly stupid and waste a day on what is almost guaranteed to be a mislynch. | ||
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On March 01 2013 04:39 zarepath wrote: Before you go off and do that, I really want to see Sylencia and Dieno's thoughts about dueling each other. Surely one of them think the other is scummy, right? Sylencia is sleeping and if I understood Dieno right, he is also afk. If Yamato really intends to duel me at the start of the day, the only chance I can think of to not waste this day in a retarded derpfest is by being the fastest gun in the west. | ||
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On March 01 2013 04:45 Alderan wrote: If Acro rush duels Dieno we kill him. Agreed? So you prefer a Yamato-Acro duel over an Acro-Dieno duel? | ||
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On March 01 2013 04:49 zarepath wrote: In this game, I consider being the fastest gun in the west to also be the stupidest gun in the west. Consider: YOU are sure about Dieno, but others aren't as sure. I feel more sure about there being at least 1 scum among Syl/Dieno than I do about either of them being scum, and everyone forcing them to argue against each other provides FAR more information than YOU going against Dieno. If you quick-draw on Dieno, we lynch him and he flips bad townie, mafia gets another kill off and we're left wondering if Syl was scum or not and whether we should look into the double-lynchers or the Keir voters for the bus. If we pit Dieno and Syl, we likely get all day to wait before one of them finally duels each other (giving us plenty of time to react to the night kill and speculate and build cases, etc.), and then we get a pretty good idea about BOTH of their alignments in the duel. No offense, but you and Yamato are not very high on my priority list for who we need more information on. Tell that to YAMATO, not to me. I AM NOT THE ONE YELLING ABOUT DUELING AT DAWN I am trying to come up with a less retarded solution for that scenario. | ||
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On March 01 2013 04:50 yamato77 wrote: No, you didn't. You argued with stuff I already refuted in my case. No. You just yelled louder. You shouted down any arguments that don't fit in your picture. You're in a tunnel. I've been there. It's pointless. | ||
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On March 01 2013 04:58 yamato77 wrote: I'm going to be drunk by then, in all serious likelihood. I may or may not duel you, depending on how I feel about what you've done between now and then. If you think Dieno is mafia, I want more detailed analysis from you on the subject. I played a part in lynching him in Parallel when he was fairly useless as town, and barely scumhunted at all. I see very little difference between his play that game and this game. As I said before, Sylencia is very similar. Useless as town, very sheepish, not proactive. There needs to be more proof than "they're not contributing" for me to go all goo-goo eyed at them. If you look at my list of reads, I completely agree with you on Sylencia. He's scum by elimination more than anything else. However, he has not been active enough to distinguish between his lurky town and lurky scum play. Regarding Dieno, I don't agree. I observed PU and remember having a town read on Dieno. However, looking back now I see that his play is not the same. This game, he is extremely wishy washy. Compare this game (first entry post): On February 25 2013 09:29 Dienosore wrote: Oh snap, early start! Hurray! I just caught up with the thread. A few things: - Snarf/Marv's plan to use all of our time to get a majority before dueling seems like the best and most logical path of action. No complaints there. - Yamato, easy on the trigger amigo. I can see some merit to what you are saying, though. It might be very beneficial for the town to have someone like you who is willing to duel in order to prove alignment, as long as you follow the general town consensus. Could help to keep everyone honest... ...On the other hand, you might be mafia... in which case having you as a baseline enforcer would only result in towny deaths. Until you get cleared somehow, I think we should stick with the plan to just take our time. - Corazon: I don't know you, therefore I don't not like you! <3 Not sure why marv is putting doubt on you already, but I generally trust him. Is there something about you I should know? 1. Agrees with policy. 2. Disagrees with policy by agreeing with Yamato... except Yamato might be scum and then it's bad. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? 3. Distrusts Cora for essentially no reason except to sheep Marv. + Show Spoiler [comparison] + First serious post in PU: On December 12 2012 11:50 Dienosore wrote: ---- but then Why the flip-floppery Foolish? I told you already my heart couldn't handle any more of it Boom. Nailed Foolishness. He was scum too. Follow-up: On December 13 2012 12:37 Dienosore wrote: That is one of the reasons, yes. I've also factored in Marv's meta read on him and how Fool handled it. Also, he hasn't really denied being scum, just sort of has been deflecting the issue by arguing with folks. Also, my maps show that Fool has absolutely no support from anyone on either world. In fact, he even has some negative vibes from Sandro and Yomato, both of whom I consider to be playing fairly towny at this point. Now that I've tilted my hand, it's your turn to explain your reason for voting for him. This is not wishy washy. Here is the first reads from CT: On November 21 2012 17:34 Dienosore wrote: In an effort to gain your trust so that I can become the first leader, I have two solid scum reads that I feel need to be shared. Djodref: Supports sandroba, though he (weakly) nominated himself. Wants Clarity and Lamp on his team. Has asked a few times to different people what their reads are. Maybe mining for info? Said "I don't think it would be fair for the scum team not being able to kill the party members" Also, put out a hit on a town marv and town Hapa for being dangerous to the mafia. I'd say 80% sure he is scum goodkarma: Seems to be in favor of Sandroba for pres, even though he nominated himself for it. wants sandroba and promethelax on his team. Put emphasis on finding townies, not scummies, which could mean he is scum. Asked questions that feel as if they come from mafia perspective (dealing with towny death and kill immunity). Attacks back at Keirathi after he explains that we dont know HOW the scum kills by saying "scum must be able to remove it somehow" Uses distancing language "town" when talking about possible medics. I'm 70% sure he is scum. Seems to be town hunting. Not wishy washy. Wrong. But nobody else shared these opinions AT ALL at the time. Sticking his neck out in a non-wishy-washy way. Now that is establishing that Dieno's town play is not wishy washy, lets check out more of his play here: On February 25 2013 13:11 Dienosore wrote: Good to hear that you are willing to disarm, even if ever so slightly. Unfortunately, I am not the best scum hunter. I rely on my maps a lot, as you probably know, which usually require days of information and copious cross referencing before the incriminating connections really stand out. I'll try to whip up something before I go to bed tonight, though. Woah there, buddy. I don't want to risk my neck. If you no longer have a scumread on me, I will no longer have a scumread on you! This post has been discussed to death: On February 27 2013 11:33 Dienosore wrote: Late day at the office. Got back about an hour ago and caught up on the thread. I promised an investigation into the duelers, so here it is. Adam4167 + Show Spoiler + Timeline: - immediately busts into the thread with a vigilante disposition and challenges me to a duel. - begins to argue with marv - cuts me down - prods Corazon a few times, calls him uninteresting, then drops him - tells Zarepath he's given out reads on several players, when actually he has done very little other than accuse me of scum and clear Corazon. - clears Oats - supports Thrawn/Keir duel. - threatens Keir with a duel - clears Thrawn - defends his stance a bit more, then snaps a duel on Keir - general posturing, says his mafia meta is lurky and passive, calls Yamato delusional - reinforces that his play isnt mafia motivated a few times. - outright claims town Summary: I have to admit that I am a bit biased due to our previous interactions, but I can't shake the feeling that this guy is scum. He seems to be trying to cause as much chaos as possible, then once all the shit has been slung, reinforces over and over again that he is town. He also seems to be exclusively picking on the Keirathi + Show Spoiler + Timeline: - disagrees with Thrawn's stance to just 'let things happen as they will' - says Thrawn is currently his biggest scumread - puts suspicion on Adam due to his rogue bravado - tries to advance our dueling policy - says he is willing to duel Thrawn - argues a bit more with Adam about dueling policy - gets called out by Adam - general defending Summary: As I said earlier, I was completely surprised by Adam snapping on Keir. I've gone through Keir's filter a few times since the duel was called, but I still can't find anything that sticks out as obviously scum motivated. Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile. The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn. It's true his activity has been a little slow, but not so much that I'd see any reason to raise any alarms. Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything. So with that, I feel compelled to cast my vote now. Considering how the game started, I don't think it's going to surprise anyone. ##Vote: Adam4167 It is incredibly careful. Nothing like the happy "I will call out the biggest veteran in the game in my first real post" from PU, or the happy carefree Dieno from CT. Wishy-washy + careful = scum. | ||
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On March 01 2013 05:49 Oatsmaster wrote: As in why didnt you die Acro. Considering marv died day 1, not likely to be a medic. Maybe because they hope that Yamato is gunning for me. | ||
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On March 01 2013 05:52 Oatsmaster wrote: I expected Acro to die, yes. Also that was an obvious gambit by yamato, unless its not a gambit? I thought it might be a gambit, but it didn't feel like one. | ||
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Fake case to fool scum into not shooting a strong townread. However, it didn't really feel like it. | ||
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On March 01 2013 06:35 Oatsmaster wrote: I think dieno is scum too. My apologies. Ok I think you are town and that we should stop fighting :D Unless Dieno flips town. Then you and acro are under serious scrutiny. Hmmm, what's your strongest scumread? | ||
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On March 01 2013 07:02 yamato77 wrote: Lol, what a weird fucking reaction to an NK. It was a response to Oats. | ||
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On March 01 2013 07:11 Adam4167 wrote: So Acro, your proposed scumteam looks like 'Alderan, Sylencia/Cora, Deino and Keirathi'? I don't begin to assume how this game as balanced, but I have more games then your entire scum team combined. It's possible, but the teamplay seems unlikely. Alderan-Dieno is pretty weird and I would really have to see if that makes sense at all if Dieno flips scum. Anyway, Keirathi has played far more games than you. | ||
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On March 01 2013 07:11 Adam4167 wrote: So Acro, your proposed scumteam looks like 'Alderan, Sylencia/Cora, Deino and Keirathi'? I don't begin to assume how this game as balanced, but I have more games then your entire scum team combined. If you want to catch the scumteam all at once, what is it according to you? | ||
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Yamato: why did your reads flip 180º degrees when Adam dueled Keirathi, instead of Thrawn doing it? | ||
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On March 01 2013 07:36 Adam4167 wrote: I don't discount the possibility. I don't like your interactions with deino. I don't like his flip-flop on Keirathi. Him attacking you hours before a daypost that some expect you to die in could be a convenient ploy. What don't you like about them? I remembered him as a newbie version of Bill Murray and was willing to treat him as such: give him more time to get into his townie groove. If you come out guns blazing against that kind of player you get nothing out of them. My stance on D1 was to treat him as town until I could make a decent read. I think my thought process regarding him has been very transparent. | ||
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On March 01 2013 07:47 Adam4167 wrote: I expect a certain level from you, and when you place someone in your top 4 town reads that opens with a post like Deino's, and responds to my aggression like he did, I am concerned that you are not seeing what I consider is right in front of your face. You've since dumpstered his initial post, for exactly the same reasons that I did on day 1, yet after your first read on day 1, he was 'top 4 town' and now hes scum for the same post. Two ways of reading that post: scum flailing around or newbie town flailing around. At the time I gave him doubt. If YOU had made that post I would have nailed you to the cross. Or Hapa. However, it was someone who is legitimately a newbie town and I remembered making strange nonsense reads. Two things have changed since then: 1. Newbie town generally gets its shit together with as little pressure as there was on him and starts trying to contribute. Dieno never made that transition. So that leaves the "scum flailing around" explanation. 2. I refreshed my meta read on Dieno and found that while his reads were sometimes nonsensical, he took firm viewpoints and argued for them. Both of these point to a scum Dieno, rather than a town Dieno. Anyway, I caught scum D1. WTF is your problem. | ||
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On March 01 2013 10:25 thrawn2112 wrote: i'm worried that most people are going to go for this double lynch thing and not commit to picking either side. Do you really think that it's most likely that both of them are scum? If you think there's even a small chance of them having different alignments then it's beneficial to know which one the thread wants to lynch. it's much easier for scum to justify a vote later on in the cycle as opposed to right now. and if you're worried about dieno and syl not feeling pressured if we don't immediately go for double lynch.... don't worry about it. i'm sure they know exactly what position they're in. Both scum should not be ruled out entirely. They were under significant pressure to duel each other and they know that this way they *might* have an opportunity for one of them to clear his name. It's a risk, but they were almost certainly both going to end up on the chopping block anyway (one today, other tomorrow). This way it can maybe work in their favour. Anyway, I'll assess them individually, rather than as an either/or pair. It's not the same situation as Adam/Keir, where Adam could have picked virtually anybody to duel. | ||
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Diving back into Sylencia's filter again. | ||
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On March 01 2013 11:18 thrawn2112 wrote: dienosore completely misrepresented what syl was saying. dieno was saying that syl was looking for blues to claim or something, right? syl was referring to blues not being scared to enter duels: Yeah, you're right. Never mind then. | ||
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Rant off. Adam is making way too much sense this game. I retract my 3P suspicions. It's still possible he's taking a page from my CT playbook, but I am going to follow the advice I should have taken ages ago. KISS: Adam is town. Also, there's only one scumteam due to missing KP. Adam's explanation for why only one of Dieno and Syl is scum is also making sense. Not quite sure whom yet. Dieno took all that time I was asleep and didn't produce a single read. His main scumspect has switched from Oats, to Cora, to Syl for what appears to be no real reason. On the other hand, Syl hasn't done anything at all either. Atm I'd lean towards lynching Dieno. Consider this a vote on him for now. However, I am not fully convinced and we have plenty of time. Lets give it a bit more. | ||
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@thrawn: how do you distinguish between 34 and 37. Make a meta case and I'll see if I agree. I've been trying to see the things that really stand out in his scumplay compared to his townplay and don't see anything, except that in 37 he became far more townie when under pressure. | ||
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I refused to believe Adam would do something that stupid as town, so I first saw him as scum, and later as a 3P to explain it. I was (probably) wrong. Now tell me why Yamato's explanation makes more sense and what in my filter actually pushes a scum agenda, rather than a town one. That, and a ridiculously high standard for my D1 reads are all I have found in anybody's suspicion of me. | ||
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On March 01 2013 18:22 thrawn2112 wrote: I think there's a difference in conviction. As town he lurks and stuff but will still get down to business. This game he's been pouting, not voting based on scum reads (voting to kill the worse town player, adam over keir) and just not having reads in general. Does anyone know what syl's reads are? (no) there is some stuff recently about cor, and of course he claims adam is scum. but that's it. oh I was reading the thread and this was funny, and true: If I have to assume that both aren't scum (which i'm conflicted about atm) I am taking syl's side against dieno. kinda waiting for syl to show up before deciding if I want double lynch I very much disagree. Look at NMM 34, where he was scum. He was making cases. Not pushing them, but can you honestly say he was pushing anything in NMM 37? To me, his town and his scumplay look exactly the same: a lurker who drops by once a day to make a case and then buggers off again. The only difference in the two seems to be that as scum he is slightly more active. However, with a sample size of 1,there's no guarantee that that is the case, it might just have been the game, or its timing. | ||
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On March 02 2013 00:28 cDgCorazon wrote: @Acro: If you are going to make the same points I am, please just quote me. Thanks. @Syl: If we lynch Dieno, we are going to know his alignment. The problem with finding out his alignment first is that it is going to open us up to a ridiculous amount of association cases between me and you. Do we really want that? I don't think so. @Adam: I don't understand why we are all so convinced there aren't two scum here. It's a huge risk for scum, but if we have 66% or 100% of the scum team here, I think they would definitely need to take a risk as crazy as this in the hopes that we lynch one of them and allow the other one a "clean slate" really. If we are all assuming that one is scum and the other is town, we are all setting ourselves up to be duped by at least one scum player. I really think we need to double lynch. Even if we don't get 2 scum, we send the message that the town is not afraid to cut dead weight and distractions. What points? | ||
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The play doesn't smell of a bus, and the reasoning for "lynch him so you know my alignment" was horrible, but I don't see how he's scum for it. Now all that's left is to figure out whether he's right about Sylencia being scum. | ||
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On March 02 2013 01:37 Oatsmaster wrote: Thread sentiment was against adam at the time where Hapa voted for Keirathi. Why not push adam and try to get him lynched? So unless 3 out of Syl, Dieno, thrawn and myself are scum, someone bussed Keir. Who do you think that is? | ||
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Dieno has been grabbing at straws and it has felt as if he has been trying to not-look-scummy more than contribute to the town. I just really hate the idea that if we're wrong about Dieno and he really is a townie flailing around, then we are stuck again tomorrow with a coinflip on Sylencia. I'll reread both their filters, but unless I find something really new, I think I will also be voting very soon. Syl seems to have gone to bed, although I really would've liked his opinions on some more people. | ||
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On March 02 2013 02:03 Alderan wrote: I'm a little confused. Where are all the people pushing for the double lynch last time? This duel seems like a much more worthwhile double lynch. Where's that push? I have explained this already. Last lynch I wanted a double lynch, because I had a strong scumread on Keirathi, which was somewhat mitigated by Adam going crazy and dueling him, but never really went away. I was torn between thinking Adam's duel was a VERY anti-town move and my earlier scumread on Keirathi, so kill them both. Then later I still couldn't reconcile Adam's behaviour with him being town, so got a bit caught up in my 3P theory and wanted to lynch him for being 3P (and Keirathi still for being scum). This lynch the only reason to lynch both of them is because we cannot decide who is scum. I realize that that is a terrible reason for double-lynching and I should have realized that on D1 before my 3P theory came into play, but I guess my anger at Adam clouded my judgement. So... unless I think both are scum, I am no longer a fan of double lynching, and I agree with Adam that it is pretty unlikely they're both scum. Anyway, I've caught up on Dieno and Sylencia's filter and found nothing new. I am up for lynching Dieno. However, I do still want to hear from Zarepath and Snarfs what their opinions are, so lets lay off on the voting. | ||
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@Cora: what is your read on Dieno and why? | ||
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On March 02 2013 03:30 Alderan wrote: The thing about Acrofales is that in order to believe that he is town, you have to actually accept that he genuinely believed Adam was 3p and that motivated his suspicious actions. Still wrapping my head around it, but he's been pro-town in his discussion as of late and as such shouldn't be terribly high on the priority list, especially with only hours until the end of this lynch. And to believe I'm scum you have to believe that I came up with some crazy screwball theory that drew all the attention to myself to be able to push a double-lynch. And all of that, while it was a bus in the first place which I could have ridden to easy town credit by simply never questioning Adam's scummyness, because I already HAD the scum read on Keirathi. | ||
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On March 02 2013 04:25 Alderan wrote: Dont want to not get a vote in, gonna be gone for a while Why do you feel it's so important that it's your vote? Is your vote more valuable than the next player's? | ||
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You have a few more hours to convince me that Sylencia's play is so completely different from his play in NMM 37 that it makes him scum, even if I believe Dieno is also scum. | ||
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Plenty of players around who are complete lynchbait. Is it much fun to try and figure them out? No. But it's part of the game. Do I have a town read on Sylencia? No. He's pretty damned null. However, Adam is right that scum bussing eachother right now seems unlikely. Particularly for 2 inexperienced and lurky scummers. So as long as I have a scumread on Dieno, I am going to need a scumread on Sylencia to want to lynch him. Null just doesn't cut it. | ||
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On March 02 2013 07:00 zarepath wrote: Hhonestly guys, I haven't had time today to keep up on the thread. I see a really easy Dieno lynch, and before the duel that would have been my inclination, but now I kind of want to double lynch just to be sure. Part of me says that we can't afford the potential double-mislynch, but even then we'd know exactly who to look at from there. And I'm pretty sure at least one of them is scum. We'd know exactly who to look at? Who? | ||
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1. The reads don't add up. Firstly he says he prefers Dieno. Why? He's been after Sylencia's blood all game, yet somehow before the duel started his strongest scumread flipped to Dieno. And something since the duel started has made him less sure of Dieno. It just all seems like a hastily thrown together justification for wanting to double-lynch. There is no reasoning and it doesn't add up with his earlier ideas. 2. "We'd know exactly who to look at from there". Lets say we double-lynch and they both flip town. Honestly, it would rock my world way too much and I have no clue who I'd look at. Except now Zarepath. The whole post reaks of scum trying to justify being absent all day and needing to come up with the vagues possible reason to throw his weight behind a lynch. This is true regardless of what colour Dieno flips. The post just screams scum. It screams "I don't care what happens with this lynch". That is scummy even if Dieno is scum, because with the thread sentiment it's clear he cannot save Dieno. | ||
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On March 02 2013 07:49 cDgCorazon wrote: And I'm not scummy for wanting a double lynch? Do you have a town read on Zarepath? | ||
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On March 02 2013 08:47 cDgCorazon wrote: No not really, I've kind of grouped him in with the other two when it comes to their play (especially the lurking). But the fact that you think he's scummy for wanting a double lynch and that I'm not scummy for wanting a double lynch is a bit inconsistent. However, you probably have good reasons for it. If you only lynch Dieno are you going to just ignore me and Syl and go after Zare next? If you had read that post you would see that it's not the double lynch I find scummy. It all depends on what Dieno flips. If he flips green I will really have to reevaluate things. Syl jumps back onto the scumlist, but Alderan needs to be looked at with a magnifying glass as well in that case. I haven't made up my mind on Zarepath, but that post was terrible and put him back on the map, after I had a bit of a town read on him yesterday for actively scumhunting. That post was pretty much the opposite of scumhunting. | ||
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For the moment I am. | ||
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On March 02 2013 09:40 cDgCorazon wrote: Well Zare is someone I've grouped in with Sylencia and Dieno when it comes to play (as I've said before), but I feel like I need to reevaluate everyone else before I go on the record with any other suspicions. It would be too easy if all the scum were playing terrible games. Why is Zare and his 5-page filter grouped in with the people lurking so hard you can't get a read on them (and I'd say Dieno is readable, it's just a scum read)? | ||
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##vote Dienosore | ||
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On March 02 2013 13:35 Oatsmaster wrote: Yes he is scummy, but is he scum? I dont think that scum wouldve felt that way. At all. Think about it. If you were in the scumteam. You woud think of, hey lets put up our 2 scummier players and let the scummiest one initiate the duel. Hopefully they dont double lynch or still think that Syl is scummy after it. Doesnt make sense right? With probably half the scum team gone, association cases are valid. Unless Yamato is scum and that batshit insane duel at dawn stunt was his way of trying to swing the duel away from them. But that's pretty wild speculation. I'm going with Syl lurky town for now. | ||
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Town adam, Thrawn, Aldeeran, Oats, Corazon, Syl WTF Hapa, Snarfs, yamato Mafia zare | ||
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Syl: meh, my top scumread is Cora, I'd rather duel him. Dieno: meh, my top scumread is Oats, I'd rather duel him. Long time of nothing, until one of them duels their top scumread, or Yamato gets triggerhappy and duels me. Instead, Dieno jumped in fairly early in the 24 hours to duel Syl. He clearly thought this had some point. I don't see that point being to bus his buddy. | ||
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On March 02 2013 13:59 cDgCorazon wrote: Syl gives up as town what makes you think he wouldn't give up as scum? Answer me this: why, as scum, would you duel each other early on. That shit is a last resort. Scum don't willingly set out to murder each other. It is an assinine assumption. If they had waited: 1. Triggerhappy Yamato might have dueled Acro 2. Yamato might have pressured Acro into dueling Dieno 3. Triggerhappy Adam might have gotten impatient and dueled either one of them. All 3 of these scenarios give scum a way out, or at worst a 1-1 trade. I also thought the bus scenario made sense, but it really really doesn't. Also, there is nothing in Syl's filter that screams scum. It's all just a lurky mess. I have played with plenty of town lurkers. You need external help to figure out whether lurkers are scum or town. In this case, the mechanics give us a fairly clear signal he's town. Stop tunneling him and give him a chance. | ||
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Even if Syl IS scum, you need to find at least one other one. There's no way a 15-player game as only 3 scum. I agree with thrawn: until we start flailing around mislynching townies, there is no reason to lynch Syl. Let other people weigh in on it. So far your town coach and the host of last game, which you LOST because you mistakenly saw Syl as scum, have both said to wait it out. Unless you think we're a 5man scumteam having you on, that is at least 1 townie between us. I'm fairly certain Adam, one of the driving forces behind both lynches so far, will be onboard with this. Why s | ||
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I hereby solemnly pledge that if you prematurely duel Syl, I will vote for you. | ||
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Hapa scum? | ||
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On March 02 2013 14:52 Hapahauli wrote: Also, I think Cora is town. He spent all of yesterday taking an extremely unpopular opinion against everyone else in the thread. It should be clear from yesterday that Dieno was bussed, and Cora instead attracted as much attention to himself as possible by voting Syl. Yeah, that opinion has been voiced about 50 times now. | ||
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On March 02 2013 14:51 cDgCorazon wrote: There's a way out, gentlemen. Put Syl up in a duel with someone else, and I won't pull the trigger. That's the deal. And then when we lynch that someone else you will be ranting and railing the next day. Just stow away your ego and find the 4th scum. | ||
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On March 02 2013 15:06 Hapahauli wrote: Probably not. I agree with Adam's analysis of things, and given the types of players that Syl/Dieno are, I can't really see them doing something that brave as a scum-pair. So your reasoning for thrawn being scum is that he hammered his scumbuddy instead of hoping for a 1-1 trade? And just so he could hammer before someone else did, which was bound to happen anyway? | ||
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On March 02 2013 15:13 thrawn2112 wrote: hapa wanna duel? Nice OMGUS you got there. Can we stick to the plan of killing Zare please? | ||
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On March 02 2013 20:25 Oatsmaster wrote: Try to post it before the night phase. But its looking good. Also where did Zare go? Why so many people disappearing. The same points were brought up by Adam... like 48 hours ago. Why didn't you read them then? Yamato's response is not very adequate either (it explains his flip on Adam, but not on Keir). However, far more telling is that he Anyway, @Adam, I am scum for wanting Keirathi dead for a terrible opening and hard defending Dieno. If I were scum, there is no way this makes sense: My D1 choice to bus was the experienced Keirathi, rather than the complete newbie Dieno. Why would I not do that the other way round if I had to choose one (which you seem to think I did, because 2 busses was too much). Anyway, if being wrong D1 is a scumtell, it's looking pretty terrible for Marv: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17881123 Hard defending Keirathi's play and only a slight scumtell on Dieno. I was wrong about Dieno. I was probably also wrong about Thrawn. Am I scum for having wrong D1 reads? I am probably also wrong about Hapa, but I'm not really convinced yet. Hapa is a good town player who pushes his reads. This game he has thrown them out into the thread and done nothing with them. He is also good enough scum to throw people under a bus when it seems necessary. He does this N0 to dieno and D1 to Keir. If you think he was pushing the Keir lynch, how is this: On February 27 2013 04:13 Hapahauli wrote: Yes and yes. None of my top scumreads are on the block right now. Pushing the Keir lynch? But Hapa nor Yamato are my strongest scumreads. Please take a look at Zare and tell me you don't think that is scum? | ||
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He didn't adequately explain his 180 on Adam, but what I find quite a bit worse is his behaviour around the D2 lynch. This is just before the duel: On March 01 2013 04:58 yamato77 wrote: <snip> If you think Dieno is mafia, I want more detailed analysis from you on the subject. I played a part in lynching him in Parallel when he was fairly useless as town, and barely scumhunted at all. I see very little difference between his play that game and this game. </snip> On March 01 2013 05:26 yamato77 wrote: Hm. You may be right on Dieno I reread his igrok filter from Parallel, and it seems he is far from useless there. We shall see. Accepting a case from his strongest scumread. Now I tend to play in a similar manner and accept all evidence as it comes to me, but this just felt way too easy. Then, early in the duel he votes for Dieno and never comes back. However, in many ways his play just doesn't feel like a scum mindset. It helps that many of the things he has been wrong on have been the same things I've been wrong on, so I can understand his reasoning. He's hovering around the top, but I am not completely convinced. Zare is still far more likely to be scum. | ||
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On March 02 2013 07:00 zarepath wrote: Hhonestly guys, I haven't had time today to keep up on the thread. I see a really easy Dieno lynch, and before the duel that would have been my inclination, but now I kind of want to double lynch just to be sure. Part of me says that we can't afford the potential double-mislynch, but even then we'd know exactly who to look at from there. And I'm pretty sure at least one of them is scum. I have picked it apart already. I won't repeat myself. However, I will repeat the earlier minor points I had: 1. The list post + Show Spoiler [post] + On February 26 2013 06:07 zarepath wrote: I'm going to be mostly AFK for the rest of the Night so here are some reads/suspicions for the moment. Hapa The very first thing he does is claim town, which I really dislike. Proposes a policy. Suggests that all Cora wants to do is call Sylencia a dick... stoking the flames The 180 on iamp with not a lot of justification In the end he makes a fairly good defense (last post in his filter). The iamp 180 does look awful, but I can see the reasoning behind it. Oats Super spastic. Tons of questions. The other game I've played with Oats, this is how he played Day 1 in order to get information/discussion flowing. I am pretty sure that is his tactic now. But if literally zero cases or reads come out of it, his behavior is going to look scummy in retrospect. Keirathi Somebody else who soft-claimed town immediately, a thing I hate. Supposedly caught up with the thread but hasn't made his presence known in any substantial way. He needs to have opinions or something. Dienosore I feel like he is the stuffed animal of this game of mafia. He is cute and friendly and makes sweet pictures and hard to hate, but when night strikes he turns into an Agent of Evil and creepily plots our demise. Okay, so not really. His picture is potentially helpful/useful, and I like his tone, but he has really gone out of his way to talk about how friendly he is, which strikes me a little bit of Stranger In An Unmarked Van syndrome. He opts to be the nice welcoming guy to Cora when everyone else is finding excuses to hate him, and it just makes my heart swell. Then in his defense of his defense of Cora, he mentions multiple times how friendly he is. Why is he so concerned with looking friendly? Town doesn't need to worry how they look, just what they accomplish. Note that he also went out of his way to express how he is NOT good at catching scum. Why would town advertise that? Don't they want their arguments to hold sway? I want to see more of his conclusions from his mapping; undoubtedly several occur to him while he does the research. Adam What does Adam think about people not named Dienosore? Hard to tell. Snarfs Unless Snarfs has been mafia a million times in a row, his first line was a super annoying soft-town-claim that is not justified, in my opinion. Now that he's caught up I wonder what his other thoughts are. Sylencia I mentioned this earlier, but Sylencia looks the scummiest right now of all of the players. Others have contributed less/none, but the few things Sylencia has popped in to post fall easily under the Scum Motivated category. He has more work to do to stop looking scummy than anybody else. Just check his filter and the case makes itself. iamperfection His player list comment (assuming town will have the good players for some reason) sounds awful but when looked at, I can understand how it's simply just saying that there are so many good players we're bound to have at least one as town. His logic fails to account for the fact that mafia will also have good players, so it's not like town will now have it easy . He calls someone town REALLY early in the game, which something you can usually only do with confidence when you are scum. He calls Snarfs scummy also very early in the game, then tells other people to discuss it. I think this is kind of null, but worth bringing up because it was a unique read. He goes out of his way to answer for corazon, tell him who is scum. I don't know that I can see scum acting this... forwardly. He is unforgiving in his opinions and doesn't really bend at all to town, and he just has this weird vibe. I get a sense of unique thoughts coming from this man. He gives a bunch of town reads, which is apparently something he just does. This man is a Wild Card. I think I like him. (And I can also understand how someone would be certain that he's scum and then suddenly decide he's no longer scum.) This post looks like it's contributing, but it isn't. Lets go through the list:
A list of all these people, yet only 1 conclusive read. What does this list do best? Make it look as if Zarepath is contributing to the game and scumhunting. However, he clearly isn't. This is not figuring things out, it's giving a vague commentary. 2. A really angry post about why thrawn should have been dueled. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2013 23:35 zarepath wrote: I can't believe this happened. This seems far from the best duel we could have set up today. Thrawn switches his suspicions YET AGAIN: And then he bounces from hapa/acro to FOR SURE wanting to duel... Keirathi? But not to the point of ACTUALLY dueling him... just to the point of asking what OTHER people think about him dueling him. And his case came down to Keirathi only having a case against Thrawn based on meta... but isn't that, like, every single person in the thread? Everyone is surprised at Thrawn's performance this game based on his meta. Why isn't Snarf's tenuous Thrawn case scummier than Keirathi's? So why Keirathi? Why all the bravado about volunteering to be a duelist? No townie should want to be a duelist unless they feel super confident in their read -- at which point, they just ##Duel, not ask "DAE think my latest/greatest soft read is scum???" And in the end, he doesn't even have to do it. Thrawn made out like a BANDIT with this duel. I know I should be talking about adam/kier right now, but HOLY COW so many people got out of this one super well, including all of the lurkers/low contributors. All Sylencia has to do is vote and justify it; he doesn't have to forward unique reads on anybody but the two people. We could have spent 24 hours testing low contributors and seeing who their reads are when it has to be out of 11 other people, instead of just out of a pool of 2. Our ability to gain information has been CRIPPLED by a premature duel. We CANNOT do this again tomorrow. Marv was killed for his analysis, and his number one scum read was Thrawn.... and he's not even up for a duel? Even Thrawn himself seemed fatalistic about it (which isn't very townie IMO), and the fact he was "rescued" from this duel super early in the day is incredibly anti-town. Look how angry Zarepath is. Thrawn escaped the duel. Sure, it pissed me off too, but I had thrawn as my top scumread. Zarepath did mention him earlier (in passing), but he got casually dropped in and does not appear in the list. Now he comes roaring back and was suddenly a strong scumread. Why? I'm not sure. But making a big angry case on someone who can't get lynched is a great way of looking useful while not being useful in any way at all. 3. The Adam-Keirathi dilemma + Show Spoiler + On February 27 2013 12:03 zarepath wrote: @Thrawn: It's pretty clear why I didn't vote for Adam -- I explain it right at the end of my post. Because this format works off instant majority and not a time frame, there is no way to unvote out of a majority should something big come up that shakes everything up. I would rather wait for everyone to chime in before I place my actual vote, because if I contribute to an instant majority, I basically let half of town get out of this entire cycle without having to make a stake on anything. So yes, my vote will be on Adam, but not yet. This isn't Zare's first post about the matter. He does a long analysis of Adam and concludes he is scum. The analysis wasn't half-bad. The problem is this lack of commitment. There were 3 votes on Adam at the time. Why this fear of committing to your read? Well... because you may be forced to bussing your scumbuddy. Adam made his long post and the Adam wagon was losing momentum. So Zarepath made a long unnecessary case and jumped onto the Keirathi lynch. 4. Not reading the thread + Show Spoiler + On February 28 2013 01:38 zarepath wrote: Acro, you ARE INSANE. Why do you believe both to be scum??? One of them DUELED the other when somebody else was already WILLING to. Why in the world would scum duel each other day 1? Double-lynching when one of the people dueled the other of his own volition is idiotic in this game. Anyone who is either not voting or is voting specifically for a double-lynch need to realize that they are relying completely on mafia being utterly retarded and not playing to their win condition in any way. Nuff said. All of this together speaks of a mindset where he really doesn't care who gets lynched. He makes wishy-washy reads posts (except on Syl, which he backpedaled on during the D2 lynch, and on Keir when it was clear he had to bus). He is not really reading the thread. There are no firm stances and he can easily move his viewpoint to lynch anybody who is the flavour of the day. This lack of conviction is what makes him scum. He appears to be contributing, but never pushes his reads, drops them inexplicably whenever he feels it's convenient and then picks them back up again later. In closing: Zarepath is scum. | ||
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On March 03 2013 00:59 Adam4167 wrote: The yamato/acro interaction on D1 felt like a weak bus. He slams him calling him 'hilariously scummy' and 'scummiest thing in the thread' yet he never chases it up, ever. So I'm scum because Yamato is flinging shit. That doesn't even make sense. Scum flings shit all the time. Almost always at townies. As for my D1 reads. Do you remember me defending Sandroba to the death in CT? I did. I tried my damndest to push that lynch off Sandroba. My read was utterly wrong. I was trying to push that lynch off one scum and onto another. This game I wanted to kill Keirathi. Sure, I got a bit sidetracked by your stupidity and wanted to kill both of you, but I never wavered in wanting to lynch Keirathi. So... I gave a townread on a scum. So did Marv (Keirathi). Are you trying to say that you hold me to a higher standard than Marv? D1 reads aren't strong reads. They are first impressions. I gave Dieno the benefit of the doubt. I've seen plenty of noob townies make posts equal or worse than that one. I was nowhere near sure Marv or Dieno were town. I just didn't see any point in putting them up for discussion. Marv, because if he's not town, it'll show later in the game. Dieno, because giving Bill Murray-esque players some time is what you have to do. Add that to what I remembered from PU where he was mislynched for similar behaviour and he just really needed that time. It was totally worth it and I would do it again: treat players like this as town and they will repay you as town, or do absolutely nothing as scum. Dieno did nothing, so he got lynched. If I had been scum I would have NAILED him to the stake for that post. See LVI for what I do with Bill Murray when I'm scum. I bus the crap out of him. I bussed him so hard that BM was yelling I was an asshole in the scumQT. | ||
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On March 03 2013 04:14 yamato77 wrote: Lol, have two townies duel and double lynch them This is hilarious. You guys kill my motivation to play. Scumclaim? I see him channeling VE. | ||
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Hapa, what is your stance on Sylencia? | ||
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However, I have a hard time seeing Hapa as scum. He's not playing well, but if he's scum he's playing terribly. He has done the most illogical things that don't help a scum agenda at all. His radical stance change on Iamp seemed scummy at the time, but honestly I see no reason for a scum Hapa to suddenly throw the towel in the ring based on that post. He calls Dieno's opening post a wishy washy newbie post, not scummy (although he nails Dieno to the cross for his follow-ups). Same benefit-of-the-doubt I wanted to give to Dieno. He is hard on Keir's case and doesn't lay off due to Adam going all crazy harry. His reads on N2 resonate strongly with my thoughts at the time. Sure, every now and then he throws a completely inane curveball, like the thrawn case. But is there a scum motivation there? Why go after thrawn? Probably one of the hardest targets to go after. He could try to get suspicion on Oats, Yamato or myself... yet doesn't. It just doesn't add up. | ||
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Beer is happening after all. I'm in Brazil and everything just gets delayed. | ||
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On March 03 2013 13:44 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah fuck if I know why i'm alive. You either orchestrated this night-kill to bring up this exact argument. Or my read on you is wrong. Something I'll have to ponder while we exterminate Yamato. What does my alignment have to do with it being weird you're alive? Regardless of the scumteam (except if you're scum), this kill makes no sense. No offense to thrawn. Guess I'll go over thrawn's filter and see if he had some read that diverged significantly from the mean. But that's a task for tomorrow. Good night everybody. | ||
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On March 03 2013 18:39 yamato77 wrote: People still want me dead? I'm flattered you guys think I could do what I've done this game as mafia, but for real, I am town. <snip> I want to duel Hapa today. If I'm in a duel, I'm dueling him, or someone is dueling me. Let it happen. The first part of this post somewhat corresponds to what has been going through my mind since people have been thinking I'm scum and particularly this thought process has been making me want to duel someone. So I can fully understand Yamato taking this stance from a town perspective. So the fact that he dueled is unsurprising. Also the fact that he decided it made more sense to pick his own opponent. Sure, he jumped the gun, but if he's town, this makes sense: he wants to duel someone he thinks is scum, not be dueled by someone he might have a town read on. I cannot make sense of this move as a scummer. Another thing I can't make much sense of is why he backed down on me if he's scum. He had me pretty much where he wanted me. Adam, Snarfs and Alderan were all on board the Acro=scum train. It was starting to go places. Why flip that read? However, everything I said in my night post also holds. There's a reason I would rather have seen Zapa get dueled. The way the duel happened is making me reconsider Yamato. Hammering him quickly without considering this kind of stuff seems stupid. | ||
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This means he's either town and not doing a proper job of explaining his thought process or he's scum and doesn't have a thought process beyond flinging suspicions around. Both are possible, but I saw no reason to comment on it before Yamato responds. | ||
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On March 04 2013 02:18 Oatsmaster wrote: Acro, what do you hope to gain out of waiting? So yamato isnt scum, is Hapa scum? Time for discussion. Time to decide. Time for both to put up a fight. Maybe they both convince me they're town and this was a colossal mistake. Maybe someone brings up a good argument that I haven't thought of for one of them being town/scum. Have an open mind and make an informed decision. That's my role here. You want to throw away the open mind and informed part there and just default straight to "make a decision". Why? How are you SO sure that Yamato is scum and Hapa isn't? I haven't seen any actual reasoning out of you in quite a while. You seem to be reading other people's cases and just agreeing with them. What are your own thoughts? | ||
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As for Yamato's case, I really don't want to comment on it too much before Hapa gets back here to address it. I think it has some interesting points and I feel the whole situation merits discussion before we just jump in and lynch someone. | ||
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On March 04 2013 02:45 cDgCorazon wrote: "I really don't want to discuss anything, but why do you not want to discuss anything Oats?" Yeah, lets take cheap potshots twisting my words. I am happy to discuss pretty much everything, but there is a reason I want Hapa to comment on Yamato's case, because I can think of many different reasons for lots of the things he said. If Hapa is scum and we all go around making up reasons why Hapa did what he did, all he has to do is come into the thread and say "yeah, what Jimmy said is what I thought about that at the time". However, Oats seemed deadset on lynching Yamato before Hapa is even back in the thread. THAT is what I meant with avoiding discussion. Cora, what is your opinion of Hapa? And while we're at it, what do you think of Oats? | ||
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On March 04 2013 02:47 Oatsmaster wrote: Im not against discussion, I just think that yamato is playing anti town with his duel, and with the earlier question marks about him, that makes him scum. Although I realize now that its not all bad, useful discussion can still be obtained. I was just pissed off at yamato for doing what we blatantly said not to do and what he criticized Adam for in the first duel. ##Unvote You were pissed off at Yamato. Do you think his early duel makes him more, or less likely to be scum? | ||
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On March 04 2013 03:18 Oatsmaster wrote: Im confused as to why Hapa needs to be in the thread for me to make a read on yamato. Why is that so Acro? Where on earth do I say that? I just want Hapa to respond to the case, because it'll help my read on HAPA. If I decide Hapa is scum, then I don't think Yamato can be. | ||
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On March 04 2013 05:21 Hapahauli wrote: And I think it's really clear from Yamato's "duel" antics here that he's simply not interested in finding out my alignment. He called me scum over 48 hours ago, promising all the way to provide a case against me. Since then, he's never given me an opportunity to explain myself, never asked me a single question, and has never attempted to interact with me. Then last night, he plops a case down at 5am and pulls the Duel trigger. That's not a town thought process, much less a town-Yamato thought process. As you recommended, I have read over British Empire... and I don't see the same aggressive Yamato as I see here. Yamato seems far more involved here. I also still don't see a reason for him to duel you if he's scum, let alone get all triggerhappy about it. Can someone give me a scum explanation for this? @yamato: everything you say about me now is fine, but I haven't altered my playstyle. Yet one day ago you were so convinced I was scum you were threatening to duel me at dawn. What in the last day changed your mind? | ||
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On March 04 2013 05:53 Hapahauli wrote: I'm pretty sure Acro defending Dieno early on. He's talking about my read when he was making his giant case on me. | ||
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I don't really see the two games as following a similar track. But it was his very first scumgame, so it's not much of an argument against him being scum either. | ||
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Now onto Hapa. This is going to be a very weird case, because I have basically decided to sheep players who have far more experience playing with Hapa than I do: Here are Marv's D1 reads of Hapa and Yamato: Hapahauli - he's just done nothing to make me think he's town, and Hapa is very capable of coming across town. Like iamp mentions, defends himself too much instead of doing proactive things. *could* just be a bad start. yamato - aggression, thread presence, decent reads, etc Iamp has been pretty damned spot on with his reads this game too (got both Keir and Dieno right pretty early on). He also had Hapa as scum (and has a lot of games with Hapa) and Yamato as town. Why kill Iamp over Adam? Because he was one of the few people actively pushing a Hapa lynch. I believe it's possible scum Hapa has been playing the long game. He identified early that Dieno was playing terribly and got on the bus. He then identified early that he wouldn't be able to save Keirathi with Keirathi's commitment and playing level, when Adam dueled him. Btw, a scum Hapa would've been far easier to identify if we had lynched Zapa first. If you simply assume Zapa is scum, then Hapa's association gets pretty dodgy. He has a strong town read, but when the thread starts seeing him as scum, he kinda goes quiet on Zapa. On the flipside, Zapa is about as non-committal as you can get when discussing Hapa. I don't want to use this too much, but a Zapa/Hapa scumteam makes quite a bit of sense. In order to see either Hapa or Yamato as scum, we need to just assume they were fully willing to bus. Yamato came out pretty strong against Keir. Then D2 realized that Dieno would have to die. Hapa came out pretty strong against Dieno and realized in the duel that Keir would have to die. I give equal townie points to both. So lets put the bus argument to rest. That leaves everything else in their play, and Yamato has just been more proactive and helpful than Hapa. + Show Spoiler [point-by-point] + Points in favour of town Hapa:
Points in favour of scum Hapa:
Points in favour of town Yamato:
Points in favour of scum Yamato:
So... I actually come down on Hapa being scummier than Yamato and will put my vote there. ##vote Hapahauli | ||
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Dieno is very wishy washy on Yamato and answers Hapa's questions, but never gives a read. Keir avoids talking about either Hapa or Yamato directly. | ||
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On January 12 2013 04:17 yamato77 wrote: If I had been there during Dandel's lynch I might have defended him just to increase Zentor's paranoia about the both of us. Hapa I'm sorry I did what I did this game. I have great respect for you as a player but I had to be so stupid you would never believe I was scum. It almost worked. I don't see Yamato being particularly stupid this game. He isn't getting stuck in tunnels on obvious townies and yelling at everybody else that they're stupid. His case on me, while wrong, pointed out a number of flaws in my play, which I am not very happy with. The meta just doesn't hold up. As for you being town? Maybe. I could be wrong. But given a choice between the two of you, I'll bet on you being scum and not Yamato. | ||
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On March 04 2013 10:30 Hapahauli wrote: Firstly, did you not read anything I posted above? His tunnels and switches this game have been non-sensical and have lined up pretty much exactly with mafia motivations this game. Secondly: Anyway this is the last I'm going to talk about Yamato. While I think he's scum, it's pretty clear that I have a conflict of interest here. Even if he could prove to me now that he had a 99.9% chance of flipping town, I'd still support lynching him just on the basis that I know that I'm town. Now if someone other than myself, Yamato, and Acro could post, I could get to more productive subjects. One of you two is clearly getting lynched. Hypothetical scenario: we lynch Yamato and he flips town. Who is scum? | ||
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On February 27 2013 04:13 Hapahauli wrote: Yes and yes. None of my top scumreads are on the block right now. He had a town read on both lynch candidates and was voting for Keir because he was "less townie" than Adam. No way he can suddenly come out for double-lynching. He HAS to defend that. | ||
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On March 04 2013 11:16 Adam4167 wrote: He doesn't start attacking Keirathi until AFTER I already call the duel. Nor does he mention me. He could have easily just dumped a town/null read on Keirathi and a SCUM read on me. He was not pigeonholed into any reads, yet he chose the least beneficial options for a scum player. That is either the worlds most super bus or.... hes not mafia! You were IN Hero Mini Mafia, right? You were on the business end of one of the most super busses. While everybody else was angry at you for being a jerk, Hapa jumped straight to the conclusion that you were town and voted for Keirathi, despite being cautiously null with slight suspicions before then. As Ace says: if you're going to bus, you have to go the full 9 yards. No point in bussing unless you max out your town credit with it. That's the whole point of a bus. But this is a completely pointless argument. I cannot know that Hapa was busing. I do know that someone was. Thrawn and Iamp have flipped town. I know I am town. That means: Either Sylencia is scum and Dieno<->Sylencia was a counterbus. This still seems unlikely. Or two of the votes on Keir were scum bussing him. I don't think it's you. I don't think it's Alderan and I don't think it's Cora. Alderan's play around Dieno is weird for fairly inexperienced scum. Cora is far too eager to get into fights with townies. And you are not playing like your scum meta. That leaves Yamato, Hapa, Snarfs, Zapa and Oats. I already said I believe Zapa to be scum, but that leaves one of the other 4. Oats picked a fight with Marv. While I have my suspicions, this just seems so illogical and pointlessly risky after he got completely slaughtered by Marv in LIX, that I keep coming back to him being town, regardless of the rest of his play. Snarfs is an outsider possibility, but I feel Yamato's Snarfs=town case to be believable. That leaves Yamato and Hapa. Out of these, I believe Hapa is more capable and likely to have played the scumgame he has than Yamato. | ||
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On March 04 2013 11:19 Hapahauli wrote: Acro, I want it straight from you right now - what is your read on me, and how likely do you think is it that I'll flip mafia? I've heard plenty of "oh he could have done <xxxxx> and <yyyyyy>" but nothing else. Less story-telling, and more reads. Go. It's not much of a case, but you're scum by elimination. | ||
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You refer to CT for other games where you took a step back, but you were still actively scumhunting. This game everything has just sort of happened to you. I have the distinct feeling that the only reason that you're calling Yamato scum is because he dueled you and it's mano-a-mano now. I see NO mention of a Yamato is scum idea bouncing around in your filter until he duels you. | ||
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On March 04 2013 11:34 Adam4167 wrote: This bus would blow Hero mafia's bus out of the fucking water it would be so epic. I'm sorry, but I just don't see that coming from the guy that claimed godfather in nested spoilers..... (no offense Hapa) So, lets stop on Hapa for a sec. My reasons for Hapa being scum are inspired by my efforts to make a conclusive case on Yamato. His play is just way more illogical than Hapa's for scum. Also, if you want to talk about illogical busses: Yamato flipped his reads 180º to vote for Adam in a fit of anger. Then 24 (or so) hours later, he is on the Keirathi train. If there was 1 person in the thread at that time who could jump on the double lynch with no negative consequences, it was Yamato. Yet he flipped 180º back to Keirathi instead. If you want to make the no-double-lynch-bus an issue, Yamato's makes less sense. | ||
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What was clear is that Adam was not going to get lynched alone. Other than that, it was Yamato who stopped the double-lynch (with Cora). | ||
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Alternatively, Yamato could choose to stay put on Adam and be a stubborn dick about it. Dieno could go double-lynching. They just had to bet on Syl staying AFK or sticking with his Adam read. They could clearly trust me to keep rallying the double-lynch troops. Yamato could have kicked up a fuss to lynch Adam. Yet.. he didn't, and caused what was clearly a bad lynch for scum to happen easily. The difference between Yamato and your position on double-lynching is that you were on Keir and had said you had 2 town reads. Yamato had given a scumread on Keir, then a scumread on Adam. He eventually flipped to a townread on Adam and a slightly-less-town-read on Keir. And all of that just so he could NOT push the mafia agenda. | ||
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On March 04 2013 20:42 Oatsmaster wrote: ##Vote: Yamato. Lets give him his wish and lynch him. This is pathetic. Have you read the arguments of the last 5 pages or so? Give us your analysis. | ||
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Alderan and Zapa said they'd be afk. But weekend is over, so I expect them back too (although it's still early in the US). I'd also like Snarfs' view. Basically wayyyy too many people are either away or really don't give a shit about this lynch. | ||
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On March 04 2013 22:01 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah Yamato is defending himself as hard as he can. Still doesnt tell me why Hapa is scum. Hapa's vote on Keir at the start of Adam's duel makes absolutely no sense as scum. Why would you try to stop the quickly forming mislynch? Also Yamato hard pushed you n2/3 and seems to think you are confirmed town now. Why? I dont know. He keeps harping on the fact that his meta is different from the last scum game he played. Tell me why Hapa isn't scum. My problem isn't that I think Hapa is scum insomuch as I think that Yamato isn't. | ||
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Show me why I shouldn't be able to and we just raise the bar for both of them. | ||
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What is it in Hapa's play that you don't think scum Hapa is capable of faking? | ||
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Yamato vs. Acro vs. Dieno. In D2 Yamato gets his tunnel on and comes after me. However, even when he's calling me scum and is willing to duel me at dawn, he is listening to what I am saying. Why on earth would scum bother giving credence to what his "scumread" is saying about his scumbuddy instead of just continuing to nail me to the cross? At the time it seemed weird, but the more I think about it, the less reason I can see for doing this. Why not just yell louder? He could just say "I am not listening to you, you scummy bastard" and keep flooding the thread with his cases on me. Instead he does a double-take, looks at Dieno's filter and agrees that his buddy is scum. There is NO scum reasoning where this makes sense. However, my D1 read also plays a role in my town read of Yamato: 1. Yamato vs. Marv's policy. You can say that Yamato's ideas weren't sensible, but his fight was. He picked a fight with the single-most respected player in this game to argue about policy. This whole exchange screamed townie. Then when I entered the fray he got back into the brawl, but doesn't want to continue brawling for the sake of brawling. He had made his points on policy and was calling it a day without backing down from a viewpoint that Marv, Hapa and Acro all criticized. On February 25 2013 09:41 yamato77 wrote: I'm done talking about this stupid fucking setup shit. I'm lynching mafia, even if town fucks off. That's the gist of my posting. If you don't like it, I really don't care anymore. Sure, there were some further questions that got answered, but by and large, this was the end of the policy discussion. It's hard to see how scum would first pick a fight with Marv (and later Hapa and myself) and then once it is steaming along nicely and aiming the thread at nowhere-near-scumhunting, call it to an end, because it is a pointless discussion. 2. Yamato vs. Cora. I suggest you reread this bit of the thread on pages 11-13. The argument is stupid, but it 100% reads like two stupid townies being stupid at each other. | ||
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On March 05 2013 00:34 zarepath wrote: Then why are you voting for Hapa instead of Yamato? Thank god you're quoting me from before I spent all of sunday reading their filters and the game about 3 times. How long is it going to take you to catch up on those last 10 pages of the thread? | ||
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British Empire: town survived til endgame. 19-page filter and he was killed N2 Witchcraft: a 33-page filter. 33!!! CT is the only town game I can find where the percentage of his contributions to the thread are so low. And that was a pretty funky game and Hapa seemed a bit lost in it at the time (he was cleared from being scum due to weird mechanics not adding up and pretty much all the scum in the game making a case on him and wanting him dead, if I recall correctly, it's a 400-page game, so you'll have to forgive me for being a bit hazy on the details). I could continue. Other town games from Hapa: GSL Mini he has 11 pages in a 60-page game, LVII 11 pages when he was killed on N2. I think you get the gist. His town meta is to be active and take point. Question people and figure the game out. His reads may not always be stellar, but he puts them out there and is actively trying to figure the game out. Now his scumplay: Dessert Mini: 8 pages in a 115-page game. Newbie XXI: 7 pages in a 60-page game. Liquid City: 5 pages in a 185-page game (he was lynched D5) Only Mario Mini really approaches his town activity level: 7 pages when he was lynched D1. I think I can say we have a pattern. There are some exceptions, but Hapa as town is very active and taking point on issues. He argues about them a lot and that fills up his filter. This game, Hapa has not done ANY of that. He is letting things happen to him. And yes, the Keirathi lynch was a shrewd bus. Also, do you really want to be voting alongside Zapa on this one? | ||
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On March 05 2013 01:53 Oatsmaster wrote: Why is it scummy? Ive done it as town, never done at as scum cause it looks bad. To be fair, you've played 2 scumgames and were caught D1 in both of them. Just took a while for the thread to catch up on lynching you in LIX due to mechanics. So saying what you do as scum is not exactly a good role model for what good scumplayers do Changing your mind can be townie. However, townies change their mind for a reason. Hapa had the whole town all over him for a reason D1: his 180º switch on Iamp made no sense. He just picked out a random post that had the same general mindset as Iamp had been displaying in all his posts and said "yeah, whoops, you're town" when he got under pressure from Marv and me to explain his read. Thrawn is a bit more complicated. His read has gone all over the map: Thrawn scum Thrawn 3P Thrawn scum Thrawn town In particular that third one makes no sense and made alarmbells go off in my head. Thrawn had bussed and been counterbussed by Keirathi. Hapa had then decided he was 3P because he couldn't be scum. Suddenly he drops the "can't be scum" argument to paint thrawn scum over something where he basically twisted thrawn's words and his stance on the lynch. The final "thrawn is town" read was completely nonsensical. However, it may well have come when the scumteam had decided to kill thrawn that night. No point in looking so totally wrong. Better to get some easy credit for your reads. Throw the towel in the ring. However, instead of reverting back to the obvious reasons that thrawn was town (Keirathi deal), he comes up with some nonsense excuse. Neither of these flops were properly explained at all. | ||
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On March 05 2013 02:07 Oatsmaster wrote: [/b][/b]##Vote: Hapahauli You know what this means Acro? That if Hapa flips town you are scum, with a high probability. I'll take the flak for my read. | ||
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On March 05 2013 02:10 zarepath wrote: I honestly don't know how important post count is for meta reads; I've mostly played in newbies and there's not really a meta worth looking at there. But Acro, is meta your only argument here? And you shouldn't argue for/against arguments based on who agrees with them, but based on their own merits. The fact I am arguing for something hardly means that it's necessarily false. No. There's also the scum by elimination argument. I have stronger town reads on everybody else. Adam: don't even bother contemplating. Cora: keeps getting into townie arguments with people. Snarfs: yes, he's low post-count, but his posts are making sense and he is a positive force in the thread. Oats: I keep having suspicions pop up, but his play does not make sense as scum. Alderan: his absence is not doing him any favours, but the Dieno flip makes him very unlikely scum. Syl: lurks, but was Dieno really busing him? I still don't think so. Zapa: scum. That leaves Yamato and Hapa. Yamato is town for the reasons I've layed out earlier, which leaves Hapa as scum. Meta just corroborates that. | ||
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On March 05 2013 06:56 Adam4167 wrote: Can one of you Hapa voters unvote and give me some time to reread. ##unvote This is not me changing my vote. This is just me ensuring Adam has time to read the thread and make sense of what is happening. I am voting Hapa and will be voting Hapa. | ||
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Anyway, here's the evolution of his Kei read: On February 26 2013 08:23 Hapahauli wrote: So my preferred duel right now is two of the Dieno/Snarfs/Thrawn. A lot of people think Kei is scum, but I'm pretty firmly null on him. He played a hell of a scum-game in GSL I Mini, and I'm chalking his absence up to business rather than something sinister. The inactivity is unusual for his town OR scum games, and I can't draw any conclusions from it. Fair enough: absent != scum is a good point. He repeats this point a few minutes later. Then the duel happens, and Keir responds: + Show Spoiler + On February 27 2013 00:32 Hapahauli wrote: Mornin' all. Have a busy day in school today, but I'll be checking in-and-out of the thread today. Will have some free time tonight thankfully. Woah did not expect that. First things first: 1) I'd prefer not to double-lynch. Forcing people to take sides is in our best interest information-wise. Deciding on a double-lynch right now is a cop-out. 2) Adam's duel doesn't look that bad to me. Consider his opening post: He thought Kei was scum, and dueled him. I think his decision was stupid, but it's consistent with how he approached the game. If I had to pick one, I'd lynch Kei right now. Kei hasn't done anything to prove to me that he's town. He's lurked a lot, and his case on Adam wasn't very strong. Adam has approached this game with a lot more bravado than I'd expect from his scum persona. ##Vote Keirathi Honestly, I don't see how you can read this as a forceful post in favour of lynching Keirathi. The forceful "Adam must be town" stuff comes later. This post, however, is about the opposite of forceful. It is a continuation of a very careful stance on Keirathi, but now combined with a "I don't understand how a scum would do this"-read on Adam. While this conclusion seems correct, it takes a remarkable cool to reach that conclusion immediately. It's quite a bit easier to reach if you already know the conclusion and just have to fill in the reasoning. On February 27 2013 04:25 Hapahauli wrote: Thing is Kei, you've done barely anything this game. Does the above make you 100% scum? No, but it's a point against you. At this point, I just need to see some activity/scum-hunting from you. If you're town, you have to prove it. Translation: Keir, please give me a reason to stop bussing you. After this point, he flops around a bit between being "very comfortable with his vote on Keir" and being cautiously null on Keir. What in this vote is forceful? The ONLY thing Keir is forceful on is that he doesn't want a double-lynch and his earlier town read on you had pretty much closed the possibility on double-lynching. Hapa left the door open to flop reads until after the thread momentum had clearly swung to lynching Keir. | ||
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On March 05 2013 08:05 Adam4167 wrote: In regards to those 180's, I've done them before as town. Heck, I did it with you this game. I thought 'this guy has potential to be scum, wonder what happens if i poke him', then you get an answer so far from what you were expecting that you instantly bin your read on them. This happens even more often with people you play with frequently, as Hapa, Iamp and Thrawn do. 180's without justification draw attention, just as you're proving. Unless Hapa is trying to double-fake out, a scum hapa would be more likely to back out of his read by actually putting some shitty justifications in there for his 180, like Yamato's back flip on me. As to those quotes: The first quote, thrawns, specifically says "kill Yamato first". Marvs reads are horrendously outdated at this point, having not been around for a single duel. I still really respect his input, and have referenced his reads several times, but Marv also had Thrawn as "kill it with fire", only for him to flip town. Iamp, well, he tried to get me killed also, so I know some of his reads are off the mark as well. But there was a justification. It was just a completely stupid justification. On both Iamp and on thrawn. Snarfs put it very succinctly at the time for his switch on Iamp. Yamato's flip can be completely explained by RAAAAAAAGE. I felt the exact same. I had a town read on you for you N1 play and then you dueled, which I felt was an incredibly anti-town move at the time. Immediate conclusion: who does anti-town shit? Anti-town people. Conclusion: Adam is scum! And then when my scumread on Keir became more conclusive, I upgraded that to 3P, because you had completely destroyed any trust I had in you. If you read Yamato's posts at the time, they radiate this exact same thought process. | ||
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On March 05 2013 08:13 Adam4167 wrote: Acro, i'm not arguing that Hapa is being forceful, in fact his non-forcefulness is one of my reasons for thinking hes town. If you're going to bus there, you'd commit to it and completely railroad Keirathi. Not if you think there's a way out. It was early, the duel was unexpected and while I am unfamiliar with Keir's scumplay other than that one game a billion years ago that I read, in that game he was pretty damned crafty. Nowhere in that whole process do I get the feeling that Hapa wanted to lynch Keir. Now he wasn't the only one in the group of people who lynched Keir without actually wanting to... Now the earlier point was that it was such an expert bus, because he was early on the vote and pushing Keir forcefully. Now I showed (multiple times) that Hapa was far from forceful despite being an early voter. Now the lack of his forcefulness makes him townie. Since when does "lack of will for lynching a scumbuddy" speak of a town mentality? Combine that with his pisspoor D1 play, the metas that don't add up and all the reasons for Yamato being town and Hapa is a far better lynch than Yamato. | ||
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On March 05 2013 08:18 Sylencia wrote: Zare has a high chance at the moment no matter who gets chosen, but after thinking through it during the night it's quite possible that Yamato and Hapa are both town, which means there could still be another scum. If that's the case, the other thing I'm a bit suspicious about are how clear pro-town players who are providing a lot of insight in comparison to others didn't get killed instead of the ones who are dead. While thrawn was also an active player, his reads were definitely a lot more off in comparison to Acro/Adam. Agreed on the NK analysis. It doesn't help the current decision process though. Who do you want to lynch out of Yamato and Hapa? | ||
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On March 05 2013 08:31 Adam4167 wrote: I never made the point that it was an expert bus because it was forceful? It wasn't. Which makes it unlikely to be a bus. Scum want to ride a bus for all its worth to get something out of losing a team mate. You can throw your vote back on Hapa, i reread the relevant part of the game, I still think Hapa will flip town. Do you think Yamato will flip scum? | ||
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And that was probably the best bus I have seen on TL ever (you could claim LI, but that was such a shitstorm that nobody knows how that turned out). As a general rule: scum don't want to bus their teammates on D1. | ||
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Even if scum feel forced to bus their teammates, they don't want to. Their heart is only in it once they see it's inevitable. Only exception to this rule: the scum is Mattchew. | ||
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I was trying to consolidate your town read on Hapa with my town read on Yamato... and that brought me to Snarfs, Oats and Alderan. Out of these, Oats has played the most erratic, but I keep coming back to 2 things: 1. The senseless provocation of Marv 2. Dieno's only spontaneous scumread was on Oats. | ||
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@Syl, Alderan: feel free to have an opinion at any time! | ||
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In other news: On March 01 2013 07:19 Alderan wrote: Just found out that some friends as well as my girlfriend will be coming to visit this weekend. Giving everyone a little heads up that my activity will probably be down from Friday night to Monday morning, but hell I'll probably still be more active than half the thread. Liar liar pants on fire. No clue whether this is indicative of alignment, but his last post is from before Yamato even called the duel. I am a bit irritated that he never even had to give an opinion and justify it. | ||
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Hell yeah! High five, Yamato! | ||
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Please? | ||
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Will have to reread D3. | ||
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On March 05 2013 23:41 Adam4167 wrote: Wait, that means Acro legitimately thought I was 3rd party? How in the hell did you come up with that o.o Probably in a similar warped way that you came up with the idea that dueling at the start of the day was a good idea. | ||
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What we could do instead is pit you and Alderan against each other and see what happens. I fully suspect you are scum, but Alderan's complete absence effectively allowed him to go completely awol during the single-most informative lynch of the game. That worries me a bit. Lets get Alderan talking again. | ||
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On March 06 2013 00:28 yamato77 wrote: Oats doubtful mafia. Cora/Alderan/Acro/Zare Mafia is among you. I'll make it easier. Zare I'll filter him and give you a case when I get home, but I have fairly strong reasons for pretty much everybody else being town, and fairly strong reasons for Zapa being scum. Combine the two and the conclusion is pretty obvious. | ||
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On March 06 2013 00:40 Adam4167 wrote: Go read Alderans filter, does it legitimately feel like hes trying to figure out anyone's alignment? Alderan is an outside option. It's mostly a behavioural case for his towniness. He has been passionate about some things I can't imagine a scum being passionate about. Hapa's reason for not wanting to double-lynch was fairly academic and he was never forceful about it. Alderan went balls-to-the-walls nuts about it. | ||
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Weak evidence for Oats being town from Hapa's list post. That town read on Oats doesn't seem faked: Oatsmaster seems townie due to his activity and his thought-process during the duel proceedings. He seems to care a lot about scumhunting... and well... just thinks a lot like a townie. Hard to put my finger on it, but it seems very genuine. That, and him being suspicious of marv in the early game against pretty much everyone else doesn't seem like a scum move to me. Sylencia is town. Hapa proclaimed wanting to double-lynch Dieno and Sylencia. He then pushed it all throughout the lynch and wanted to nail thrawn for not double-lynching (nobody took that case seriously, and this was when Hapa flipflopped on thrawn). No way does a scum do that if both of them are scum. He was hoping Sylencia would stay lurked and he could get the 1-1 trade which was the best of a bad situation. Zapa in Hapa's filter: Zapa gets a nice soft-defense: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17882681 Why is Zapa thrown into this post? It just seems like a gratuitious soft-defense. Can't make too much of this association, but every time I read Hapa's filter this struck me as weird, and it still does. Later in the game, Zapa starts being a bit of a scumread. Could be self-preservation, because half the thread was starting to get suspicious of Zapa, but could be build-up to a mislynch. There's also the list post, in which Zapa gets thrown in with Snarfs: For Snarfs + Zarapeth, of these guys voted only voted Kei, and did so at a time that seemed to swing the momentum onto Kei's bandwagon. Both of their filters are pretty "meh," but I can't find anything overtly scummy there, and their voting actions (and timing) suggest a townie motivation. This is not actually an accurate representation of what happened and it seems to be worded in such a way so the whole happening puts Zapa in a better light than he deserves from what occurred. Adam is town based on Hapa's posting. Unless that is one of the best covering stories I've ever seen, Hapa is super-hard defending Adam's townieness. The chance that this was a 3-way scumplay with Adam and Keir bussing each other and Hapa hard-defending Adam and bussing Keir is 0% (none, nada, zip, zero). Alderan in Hapa's filter: This can be summarized very easily. There is no significant mention of Alderan in Hapa's filter. He is silent as the grave on the matter. The only read on Alderan, and the first mention of him in the game by Hapa is in the list post: For Alderan, there's nothing really conclusive in his filter since he was pretty clear that he thought both people on the block were town. His attitude is consistent, and I sympathise with it having initially been in the same situation to some extent. Also, I got some town vibes from his huge fight with Acro about not wanting to double-lynch. I'd expect mafia to not be as adamant against the idea. Translation: I am the wishywash. Wishywash is my read. I can go whichever way the wind blows! The only other mention of Alderan is when I pressure Hapa to give reads other than Yamato. His primary scumread is Zapa. If not Yamato or Zapa, then look into Alderan, Snarfs or Acro. That second list is a very very safe place to hide a scumbuddy. Based on Hapa's filter alone, Alderan pulls ahead in scumpoints. On March 04 2013 09:46 Hapahauli wrote: It is also possible that I'm a pink unicorn with butterfly wings. Just because something is "possible" doesn't mean that you should dismiss the entire argument that my actions make no sense from a scum perspective. How likely is it that I did what I did as scum? I hate pink unicorns. KABOOM MOTHAFUCKA. | ||
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Based on duels and scumster actions: Adam, Yamato, Sylencia, Snarfs Based on filter and ingame actions: Cora, Oats I think the duel tomorrow is pretty self-evident: Zapa vs Alderan I am warming to the whole Alderan is scum idea. | ||
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There's some townie stuff and some scummy stuff in both their filters. Alderan Town, because: 1. Super-early scumread on Dieno. 2. Aggressively fighting against the double-lynch. Scum, because: 1. Very stingy with dishing out reads. 2. "Confirmed" townie into afk. 3. Very very stand-offish on the Keir/Adam lynch. Wanted to hammer whoever would result in not-a-double-lynch: cared nothing for who that was. 4. Brings up the double-lynch in the Dieno/Syl lynch while claiming he doesn't want to double-lynch. Suspicious minds could see this as scum hoping someone would hop off Dieno and start pushing a double-lynch 4. His stance on me is flip-flopping all over the place. Calls me scum, yet not-scum. Agrees with Yamato's case, but doesn't think I'm scum. The whole sequence just seemed incredibly useless at the time, but it could be malevolent. Zapa Town because: 1. Has made a number of posts that just seem horribly out of place for scum. Particularly: On February 28 2013 08:13 zarepath wrote: What about the case did you think wasn't good. I am trying to make better cases. This was so disarming and unexpected, it instantly disarmed my scumread at the time and made me dismiss my case against him. 2. Once he decided he wanted Keir dead, he seemed to have conviction. Scum because: 1. Most wishy-washy reads post in the entire game. Both Hapa and Dieno get a very vague read. 2. Wants to double-lynch Syl/Dieno with very little conviction. At the time I called it the worst post in the game, and it still is. 3. Seems to have a preconceived stance on the Hapa/Yamato lynch and "makes up" his defense based on this without analysing the arguments layed out in the thread. 4. Very stand-offish for most of the Adam/Keir lynch as if he is waiting to see where the thread will land. 5. Has been very wrong a bit too often for flimsy reasons. I really don't see any reason not to pit these two in a face-off tomorrow unless Zapa has some objection to dueling Alderan (who has apparently decided that the best play this game is to take advantage of the lack of an activity requirement in the OP). If Alderan stays absent or looks like scum, we kill him. If Zapa doesn't show us he's town, we kill him. Now all that's left is for me to take another look at Cora's filter and make sure I haven't missed something. | ||
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It could be due to being afk. It could be because he just doesn't want to condede. It could be because we have made setup assumptions that are wrong. It could be because we are making a gigantic blunder and the scum is hiding in our list of townies. It could be because of some reason I haven't thought of. The very premise of using that in your scumhunting is stupid. What I do agree on is that Alderan should be dueled. He should be dueled by Zarepath. Anything other than this duel is a waste of time. Zapa, make it so. | ||
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Why Cora is scum: 1. Wanted Adam dead, but hammered Keirathi. 2. Wanted a double-lynch on Dieno/Syl. However, his explanation for both these things is what makes me think these are townie things: 1. He just wanted to end it all and get on with the game. This does not sound like scum trying to take credit for a bus. He doesn't make up bullshit about how he suddenly saw that Adam was townie and Keir wasn't. No, he hadn't bothered doing much analysis on either (during the lynch he is still tunneling Syl, and to a lesser extent Oats). He doesn't want a double-lynch and the deadlocked situation was cruising for that, so he just hammered Keir to get it over with. He states this bluntly when questioned about it. It sounds honest. 2. He is completely tunneled on Syl being scum and keeps advancing ridiculous proposals about how Syl's lynch gives more information. If we had lynched Syl and he had flipped town, Cora would have looked terrible. Scum doesn't associate themselves with either/or situations: 1-1 trades are terrible. Even if we assume for a second Syl is scum, then he was pushing for a double-lynch of 2 of his scumbuddies. This is insane. And then there are the other reasons in his filter: 1. I have said this before, but it is worth repeating: Yamato vs. Cora sounded like the stereotypical fight that two aggressive townies get into. Scum tends to back down and not argue over stupid crap. 2. Generally interested in the game and figuring it out. Particularly in the Yamato/Hapa lynch I got the feeling that he was reading and analysing filters and other people's arguments. He was an early adopter of the Hapa lynch, while a scum could, at this point, easily have hung back on the Yamato is scum and probably saved his scumbuddy. Finally, Hapa's filter also gives some weak evidence for Cora being town. Hapa has a scumread on Cora when it looks like there's a chance of pitting a Syl vs. Cora lynch. When Cora keeps tunneling Syl through the entire lynch and people start giving Cora townreads, Hapa agrees and Cora is town. His reads on Cora follow the general thread consensus, which means Hapa didn't really care about Cora and cared more about his own image with regards to Cora. This is more likely if Cora is town. In closing, Cora was the last outsider that I felt I should analyse before really nailing down the Zapa vs. Alderan lynch. My conclusions are the same as they were before: Cora is town. | ||
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Adam is town because he wanted Dieno dead, dueled Keirathi and Hapa was being all weird about the whole thing. Yamato is town because his behaviour is townie and he dueled Hapa when he had plenty of other options that left Hapa the scummer out of danger. Sylencia is town because he dueled Dieno when he could have dueled Cora, and because Hapa really wanted a double-lynch. Snarfs is town because his behaviour is townie and Hapa wanted him dead until the thread didn't agree with him anymore. Oats is town because his behaviour, and both Dieno and Hapa were trying to heap some cheap suspicion onto him. Cora is town because his behaviour. That leaves Zapa and Alderan. Make them duel each other. If Zapa duels someone else, insta-lynch him. If Zapa disappears and looks like he won't duel, lynch him. If he does lynch Alderan, play it like any other lynch. Give them time to make cases, defend themselves, etc. Don't just instalynch, or default to double-lynch. Keep thinking! Alternative scenarios: I still have a slight worry about weirdness in the setup, due to the scum wincon being redacted. If scum gets lynched and it is not yet GG, then there may be an anti-town 3P. Adam is still my main candidate for 3P with some wonky wincon. 5 scum seems pretty damned imbalanced in a 15-player setup with a night start (basically, that means 2 mislynches is scum victory), so I would not worry too much about that. If there is a NK, it is always a possibility that Alderan is not actually AFK, but just acting like he is, while he still sends in the NK. Don't take the presence of a NK as clear evidence that Alderan is not scum. If there is no NK, then I will still be alive and I'll do lynch-math after the daypost. If there is a NK, assume it is 7-1. If you double-lynch Zapa and Alderan (not saying you should, play it one step at a time, but IF you do), the worst-case scenario is that everything I said above is wrong, and it's 4-1 at the next lynch. At this point re-evaluate EVERYBODY, as it means that scum has been playing a very very clever game throwing blame around indiscriminately at each other. You then have 2 single lynches to find the last scum. Most important advice: do not get complacent and lazy. That's how towns lose a game which is all but won. | ||
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Anyway: | ||
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Worst-case scenario: he's town and we've been duped by scum. That means tomorrow it's 6-1. We only lost our double-lynch, but gained an information advantage over a blind double-lynch. | ||
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##duel Alderan | ||
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On March 07 2013 00:21 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok what do you think about this. Acro conveniently mentions that there may be no nightkill, there is no nightkill. Then instead of waiting for zarepath to duel, duels Alderan himself. So therefore Alderan is basically dead. So if Alderan flips town we lynch zare and Acro. I am completely okay with you and your conspiracy theories. But for now just KISS. The possibility of no NK entered my mind this morning when I realized there really was a decent possibility that Alderan was scum. He HAS been AFK, and it was entirely possible that if he is scum, doesn't send in the NK. So yes, I mentioned that possibility, mainly because I didn't want people thinking that the presence of a NK somehow exculpated him. However, the absence of a NK definitely implicates him. By this point, a medic save seems unlikely, and there haven't been any RB claims either. That indicates that the only reason there was no NK is because scum didn't send it in. Alderan being the last scum is by far the most likely reason for that. | ||
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No notifications at all means there might be a town RBer who stopped the scum KP. I guess I should have waited for that. But I still like Ockham's Razor on that. If the medic wasn't paying attention N0 he should STILL have defaulted to protecting Marv, simply by glancing over the playlist and picking the highest-profile-player. | ||
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Cora, you need to explain ALL your night actions and why. | ||
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On March 07 2013 00:43 zarepath wrote: Acro, why do you feel that Syl can't be scum? He's made fewer reads than anyone else and has hardly posted at all. Sylencia is town because he dueled Dieno when he could have dueled Cora, and because Hapa really wanted a double-lynch. | ||
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Snarfs: explain your night actions :O | ||
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A credible medic counterclaim. It's possible there are two medic roles, but it seems VERY unlikely. So... Cora was setting that up for when Alderan flips town? | ||
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Adam nailed scum and town rallied behind him, with some protesting, but rallied all the same: there was no chance of Adam getting single-lynched. Town subsequently pressured Dieno into lynching the other main scumspect, and Syl managed to look townie enough to steer the lynch onto the correct person. Yamato nailed scum and I had some influence in derailing Adam's scumread on Yamato. Everybody rallied behind this. Iamp and Marv both left excellent read posts, which were actually worth referring back to. I wouldn't say I played very well this game. I had some very questionable moments and was rightly catching flak for my derps. However, overall town did well. Even with Alderan dropping off the face of the earth. Hosts were pretty sneaky to throw in a traitor without giving any idea of its possibility. If he would've managed to join the scumteam, Snarfs would have been very hard to find, because nobody suspected a traitor was a possibility. As it is, I really doubt Snarfs could have outlived Adam, Yamato and probably Oats. And after the claim he would've gotten lynched the second Cora flipped town. Also, town pardoner is so useless You have to be incredibly sure that both players are town... | ||
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On March 07 2013 02:53 zarepath wrote: I would just like to state for the record that the three people who immediately claimed town at the beginning of this game (Keirathi, Snarfs, and Hapa) were ALL scum. Each and every one of them. I was right to hate it.  That it was right this game doesn't mean it actually works in general. People claim town all the time. Prepare to be Kenpachi ruled in some future game. | ||
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As for setup, I messaged HiroPro halfway through the game that the duel setup was awesome. I don't feel 48 hours was too long: if we wanted to we could have hammered stuff earlier, but town did well pressuring lurkers to post. I do agree that a post-per-cycle activity requirement was necessary: Alderan just disappeared, which was pretty much the only reason he was suspected: everything else was just circumstantial. That should just plain not be allowed. Other lurkers all met minimum requirements and Sylencia played far better than NMM 37, imho. @Hapa: I tried adding you on skype, but no clue whether I got the right guy. Are you from Ann Arbor? | ||
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1. Wishywashy list. 2. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17915878 Everything else was pretty much okay. At the end it just boiled down to an elimination game. I wasn't looking for a traitor, I was looking for someone one the scumteam... and Snarfs' interactions with Hapa made that very unlikely. That left you and Alderan. Both of you had looked townie to me, but had long bouts of inactivity and no real way of ruling you out based on flipped scum's behaviour, so were promoted to de facto scumspects. | ||
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