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On March 05 2013 02:07 Oatsmaster wrote: ##Vote: Hapahauli
You know what this means Acro? That if Hapa flips town you are scum, with a high probability.
[/b][/b] I'll take the flak for my read.
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On March 05 2013 02:10 zarepath wrote: I honestly don't know how important post count is for meta reads; I've mostly played in newbies and there's not really a meta worth looking at there. But Acro, is meta your only argument here?
And you shouldn't argue for/against arguments based on who agrees with them, but based on their own merits. The fact I am arguing for something hardly means that it's necessarily false. No. There's also the scum by elimination argument. I have stronger town reads on everybody else.
Adam: don't even bother contemplating. Cora: keeps getting into townie arguments with people. Snarfs: yes, he's low post-count, but his posts are making sense and he is a positive force in the thread. Oats: I keep having suspicions pop up, but his play does not make sense as scum. Alderan: his absence is not doing him any favours, but the Dieno flip makes him very unlikely scum. Syl: lurks, but was Dieno really busing him? I still don't think so.
Zapa: scum.
That leaves Yamato and Hapa. Yamato is town for the reasons I've layed out earlier, which leaves Hapa as scum. Meta just corroborates that.
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Well, at least two of your reads are wrong because I'm not scum. Going by elimination relies on too many assumptions.
Hapa being scum just because you've decided so many other people are/aren't scum is pretty suspect reasoning, imo.
The point you made about his stance on Thrawn is certainly a thing, but just as easily as I can imagine a scum Hapa deciding Thrawn is town as soon as the scum team decides to kill him, I can imagine scum staying the heck away from their night target completely. You've raised points that are based on hypotheticals.
How do you get a stronger town read off of Alderan from the Dieno flip than you do Hapa?
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EBWOP: I see now that Alderan was pushing Dieno lynch before the duel.
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I can't see Yamato as mafia. His presence day 1 had town written all over it. His thoughts on people have had a logical progression. Further, and something I don't think anyone's brought up yet, I believe that his play last game is drastically influencing his play this game. He is overconfident and cocky because he nailed the scum team last game and forced a concession. Why does his activity drop off from day 1 to 2? If I had to guess I'd say it was because he was wrong about the day 1 lynch and his confidence was a bit rattled. His actions can be explained completely by town motives.
Hapa's 180 on iamp looked like crap, and I said I'd lynch him from the beginning for it. Him and zare were, I believe, the only two players to attempt to call me out and use my low activity as a weapon against me despite the fact that as acro, Adam and Yamato have noticed, I am actually invested in this game.
##vote hapa
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To clarify the difference between hapa's switch on iamp and yamato's switches: nothing changed to match his reasoning. Iamp was being aggressive and bull-headed. Hapa thought he was scum. Iamp continued, hapa claimed that was the reason he was town. Nothing changed.
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Gah but I can see so many reasons for them both to be town :/
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But it's got to be hapa. I honestly haven't seen Yamato do anything that I would attribute to mafia play.
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On March 05 2013 03:51 Snarfs wrote: Him and zare were, I believe, the only two players to attempt to call me out and use my low activity as a weapon against me despite the fact that as acro, Adam and Yamato have noticed, I am actually invested in this game.
I'm pretty sure the only thing I said was for people to make sure to not forget about you even though you hadn't posted for a while, which is plenty worthwhile to call out (like 8 people have done it since I went AFK). I'd hardly characterize that as using it as a weapon against you; I don't have a scum read on you and haven't presented one.
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On March 05 2013 04:13 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2013 03:51 Snarfs wrote: Him and zare were, I believe, the only two players to attempt to call me out and use my low activity as a weapon against me despite the fact that as acro, Adam and Yamato have noticed, I am actually invested in this game.
I'm pretty sure the only thing I said was for people to make sure to not forget about you even though you hadn't posted for a while, which is plenty worthwhile to call out (like 8 people have done it since I went AFK). I'd hardly characterize that as using it as a weapon against you; I don't have a scum read on you and haven't presented one. I just don't understand your calling people out you don't have a scum read on...
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Duel 3 Vote Count
yamato77 (2): Adam4167, zarepath Hapahauli (4): Acrofales, cDgCorazon, Oatsmaster, Snarfs
5 votes needed to lynch. If a majority cannot be reached in 22 hours by 17:19 GMT (+00:00), both duelists will be killed.
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Is it anti-town to say "hey this guy hasn't posted for a while?" I was just headed out of the thread and it occurred to me you were below radar. I don't see a problem with calling that out. Since then, with more time to read the thread and individual filters, you don't look scummy to me.
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11589 Posts
Hey Zare, why do you think I'm mafia?
Same shit as day 1 where you pick the town guy and call them anti-town, huh?
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Uh, I pushed for the Keirathi lynch... who on Day 1 did I call anti-town that was "the town guy?"
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This is from my filter, and I think you should read it if you really want to know why I'm voting for you. If you just want to insinuate that I really don't care, you can just ignore it a second time.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 05 2013 00:42 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2013 22:56 Oatsmaster wrote: That was an easy decision to make.
Why didnt you wait for hapa to respond? This is the crux of my problem with Yamato. Someone called him out for being all talk and no walk, and as if he's mostly concerned with his appearance, he talks up a lynch target and then duels them immediately without leaving any time for discussion (or defense). If you look at Yamato's filter, he himself brings up a deluge of reasons why this is incredibly anti-town when he first criticizes Adam for doing it (and then he votes Adam, only switching onto Keirathi to be the hammer). And in the middle of Day 1, Yamato tries to blame Iamp for confusing everything, and around Day 2 he wanted to duel Syl (not set up the Dieno/Syl lynch that town had pretty much agreed on). Yamato also promised reads on everyone, and ends up only giving an easy read that doesn't contribute to the town environment very much (Snarfs town) and then Zarepath=scum (and only after someone asking him specifically to do a read on me). For Yamato to redeem himself in my eyes, I would want to see his reads on every single player, as he promised a while ago, not simply individual reads in response to town ... I mean, how easy is it to sheep when you only have to post reads on the people others want you to? Where's the originality in thought there? He's also already martyring himself, saying he "doesn't care" if he gets lynched as long as it helps people like Adam learn to play better. If he's town, he should care a lot, especially because he was apparently so confident in his scum read that he DUELED HIM WITHOUT WAITING FOR A RESPONSE. He should be more concerned with persuading others that Hapa is scum than with persuading others that they shouldn't lynch him. ##Vote YamatoP.S. - Cora, I saw where you switched gears on yamato, but I didn't see anywhere where you specifically answered my question about how you reconcile Hapa's defense of Adam and early vote on Keir. I think if you're going to base your case almost entirely on the reputation of dead townies, I'm just trying to get you to think more about the ramifications of your read, and I think you really should consider that point if you're serious about your vote. It's a pretty strong town tell in retrospect after considering the Keirathi flip.
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11589 Posts
On February 26 2013 23:53 zarepath wrote: During those 12-16 hours, everyone on the western hemisphere was asleep. Do we really want the most important period of mafia to be done while only half of the town is awake, and not even allow the other half a say?
As far as between these two players, I think Adam's ##Duel is the most anti-town thing either of them have done. But I honestly haven't even looked through their filters yet; I just read through the thread, was amazed that this even happened, and went on a rant.
So I'll get back to you on that, but I really don't like what Adam did.
On February 27 2013 01:24 zarepath wrote: Looking through Keirathi's filter, I don't have a full town read on him, but he doesn't look nearly as scummy as Sylencia or Thrawn, and not as suspicious as Dienosore, and certainly not as counterproductive to town goals as Adam.
The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does.
If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum.
On February 27 2013 12:03 zarepath wrote: @Thrawn:
It's pretty clear why I didn't vote for Adam -- I explain it right at the end of my post. Because this format works off instant majority and not a time frame, there is no way to unvote out of a majority should something big come up that shakes everything up. I would rather wait for everyone to chime in before I place my actual vote, because if I contribute to an instant majority, I basically let half of town get out of this entire cycle without having to make a stake on anything.
So yes, my vote will be on Adam, but not yet.
I think these quotes tell a different story.
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11589 Posts
You want the guy who has been doing analysis and list posts if his reads the whole game to spell all of them out in lengthy cases for you, and that's why you're voting for me?
Lol. Scum.
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On February 26 2013 15:59 yamato77 wrote: Honestly, I want to see Keir hang. Someone make it happen.
On February 26 2013 17:34 yamato77 wrote: What I fail to see the town motivation in here is Adam wanting to cut off all discussion about the read in general. Keir's last point he made was actually a salient one, that Adam professing his own towniness over his actions is a scummy thing to do. I really don't want to lynch him now that I understand his thought process about this read, because while I initially disagreed, it seems more likely now that this might be the case.
I don't think a town Adam has as little forethought as to make a decision like this one and duel someone on a whim. While I proclaimed that I would duel my scum reads, I never intended to do so unless I felt like it was necessary to secure a lynch, which is not how I think the situation was playing out today, lest I would have done so myself. This action is quite anti-town.
However, it does make a lot of sense if Adam is mafia, because this has pro-mafia written all over it. Over-aggressive, OMGUS, and discussion haltering in nature. Also, while he's putting himself on the line, he's doing so IN LINE WITH THREAD SENTIMENT, which was that Keirathi was mafia, and Adam was the town. Just like in Nomination, mafia are wont to do things that seem risky and townie, so long as the real risk is low.
The only reason I honestly thought Adam was town before this was because his mafia reputation is super easy to catch and lurky as fuck. I don't know how to read him now, but I think he's a better lynch than Keir, simply for the act of dueling him right now. If he's town, it was a colossally stupid thing to do, and it doesn't make me any more convinced that Keir is mafia, nor has he done a whole lot of in-depth analysis to prove this point.
##Vote: Adam
On February 27 2013 16:44 yamato77 wrote: So let me break the game down here, because I have a decent idea of what's going on.
Based on the complete uselessness of both parties involved in this lynch, Adam and Keirathi, I think the likelihood of them both being town is high.
On February 27 2013 16:44 yamato77 wrote: So who is doing this? Iamperfection. ... Hilariously scummy.
On February 28 2013 05:00 yamato77 wrote: ##Vote Keirathi
Someone with balls make sure this doesn't end in a double lynch. I have to go to work.
On Day 1 you accused at least TWO different players (one confirmed town, the other essentially confirmed town) as being scum. You also switched from Adam to Keirathi, JUST LIKE I DID (and you're criticizing me for it?), except that you switched WAY later, after Keirathi was 2 votes short of a lynch. So basically everything you are criticizing me for, you did it more and scummier.
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On March 05 2013 04:55 yamato77 wrote: You want the guy who has been doing analysis and list posts if his reads the whole game to spell all of them out in lengthy cases for you, and that's why you're voting for me?
Lol. Scum.
Uh, I just want you to do what you said:
On March 02 2013 18:37 yamato77 wrote: Tomorrow, before the deadline and after, I will be dropping my reads on the players left in the game.
On March 03 2013 04:26 yamato77 wrote: Looks like that is about 8.5 hours away
In that time, I will build my case on Hapa and provide an analysed read of everyone in the game
I didn't realize that Snarfs and me were literally "everyone in the game." Your next two posts after your reads on Snarfs and me were "here's my case on Hapa" and "##Duel: Hapa."
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It looks like you really actually only care about three reads in total, and that's your town read on Snarfs, the least-contributing player who is consensus town, your scum read on Hapa, who you had full intention to duel, and your scum read on me, which you only provided because someone specifically asked for it.
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