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Just taking another look through Zare's filter, and it's kind of obvious that his vote is really based on protecting Hapa rather than going after Yamato.
In his filter he mentions nothing about Yamato being scummy (only at one point that Yamato was his 5th highest scum read). He even makes a couple of posts where he think Yamato is "pro-town".
So if he had a null read on Yamato (which is safe to assume seeing that he never said anything otherwise), why would he vote for Yamato after only one readthrough of the thread. Even more suspiciously, why is Zare only calling out Yamato for his D1 actions when he is on the chopping block, instead of calling Yamato out when he switched votes on D1? It all reeks of hard-defending Hapa.
The likelihood of scum bussing each other again is very low because the scum are so low in numbers that they need to focus on staying alive as much as possible, so I'm pretty sure that Zare and Hapa are of the same alignment, whether they are town together or scum together.
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I'm calling Yamato out for it now because he is up for lynch. Dieno/Syl looked way scummier coming out of Day 1, and that was top priority (and addressed). I'm also calling him out for it now because he's freaking attacking me about my own Day 1 as if it's completely alien to the way he played his own Day 1, which I find incredibly hypocritical.
And you're right that I am protecting Hapa -- I have a town read on him based off of incredibly pro-town argument timing and voting behavior. Lynching scum is way more town than dueling someone a couple hours into the Day period without letting them defend themselves.
I find it incredibly suspect that so many people are completely willing to brush aside the fact that Hapa was the FIRST person to defend Adam when thread sentiment could have easily pushed for an Adam mislynch, and was one of the very first to vote for Keirathi. And then he was also one of the first to push for Dieno/Syl, when at the same time, Yamato was trying to push for a Yamato/Syl duel.
Hapa's actions have led to pro-town results; Yamato's stated desires would have led to pro-mafia results.
I don't know how you can say that I mention nothing about Yamato being scummy when I explain it fairly thoroughly in my vote post, and then just re-quoted it for Yamato. In fact, YOU mentioned absolutely nothing about Hapa being scummy until this duel post. The absolute idiot in me can say "Therefore, Cora is only out to protect Yamato!" Or I can simply say, "Gee, maybe he had no reason to actually look at Hapa-scum until the Duel post where he only has two options."
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On March 05 2013 02:08 Oatsmaster wrote:
##Vote Hapahauli
Can Oats explain his change of tune? I haven't see his reason for it, except as a way of determining whether Acro is scum.
On March 04 2013 22:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
Basically his read on Keirathi, although he did leave it open ended based on Keirathi's activity.
Yamato is picking sensible fights? Like with who? Also he basically lied about his activity around the scum lynches so far.
He did NOTHING in the Dieno lynch, and hopped around alot in the Keirathi lynch and only wanted to lynch him after the momentum shift.
On March 04 2013 20:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
##Vote: Yamato.
Lets give him his wish and lynch him.
On March 04 2013 22:01 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah Yamato is defending himself as hard as he can.
Still doesnt tell me why Hapa is scum.
Hapa's vote on Keir at the start of Adam's duel makes absolutely no sense as scum. Why would you try to stop the quickly forming mislynch?
Also Yamato hard pushed you n2/3 and seems to think you are confirmed town now.
Why? I dont know.
He keeps harping on the fact that his meta is different from the last scum game he played.
A lot of talk about why Yamato looks scummy, zero about Hapa, and yet the vote is on Hapa. Why?
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On March 05 2013 05:14 zarepath wrote:
I don't know how you can say that I mention nothing about Yamato being scummy when I explain it fairly thoroughly in my vote post, and then just re-quoted it for Yamato. In fact, YOU mentioned absolutely nothing about Hapa being scummy until this duel post. The absolute idiot in me can say "Therefore, Cora is only out to protect Yamato!" Or I can simply say, "Gee, maybe he had no reason to actually look at Hapa-scum until the Duel post where he only has two options."
I had not mentioned Hapa/Yamato before now because I was trying to get Syl lynched. Since it's obvious you need to read the thread again, I was on Yamato for a few hours before I switched over.
Unlike you, who has been AFK and just decided to jump in and vote for Yamato without applying much critical thinking and looking at ALL of the arguments, I took a look at both sides and I don't see Yamato's actions being as scummy as Hapa's have been.
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Yeah, I saw you were on Yamato, but even when you switched to Hapa you didn't give reasons why except that dead townies thought he might be scum.
Please explain to me which actions of Hapa are scummy enough to outweigh the fact that he was the first person to defend Adam and one of the first to vote for Keirathi, and then one of the first to push for a Dieno/Syl duel.
But you're saying that the only reason you didn't mention Hapa/Yamato before now was because you were pushing Syl? So you thought that Hapa was scum before? I don't think so.
I'm pretty sure you had no reason to suspect him until the duel and were forced to look through both their filters, which is fine. I'm saying it was the same for me and Yamato -- I had no reason to suspect him until he put himself, and someone who I believe to be town, up for lynch.
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Like, you can't go off on Yamato and then switch to Hapa and justify it with only "his actions are scummier." You and Oats haven't given any reasoning for switching from Yamato to Hapa, and I want to know what's going through your heads (and so should the rest of town).
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Can one of you Hapa voters unvote and give me some time to reread.
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On March 05 2013 06:56 Adam4167 wrote:
Can one of you Hapa voters unvote and give me some time to reread.
##unvote
This is not me changing my vote. This is just me ensuring Adam has time to read the thread and make sense of what is happening. I am voting Hapa and will be voting Hapa.
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On March 05 2013 06:16 zarepath wrote:
Please explain to me which actions of Hapa are scummy enough to outweigh the fact that he was the first person to defend Adam and one of the first to vote for Keirathi, and then one of the first to push for a Dieno/Syl duel.
A scum realizing that he needed to bus his teammates a ridiculous amount in order to distance himself from their flips would do the same exact thing Hapa did.
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On March 05 2013 07:33 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2013 06:16 zarepath wrote:
Please explain to me which actions of Hapa are scummy enough to outweigh the fact that he was the first person to defend Adam and one of the first to vote for Keirathi, and then one of the first to push for a Dieno/Syl duel.
A scum realizing that he needed to bus his teammates a ridiculous amount in order to distance himself from their flips would do the same exact thing Hapa did.
If you were going to bus your teammates 'a ridiculous amount', why would you post this?
On February 27 2013 04:13 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 04:10 Acrofales wrote:
Let me get this straight, Hapa: you think it's entirely possible Keir is town, but think killing him is the lesser of two evils? If you were a pardoner, would you consider stopping this lynch? Yes and yes. None of my top scumreads are on the block right now.
Hes already voting Keirathi at this point. If you were going to bus here, wouldn't you be 100% adamant that Keirathi was scum because 'insert shitty reasons dragged out of his filter'. For me to agree to that Cora, you're telling me that he decided to bus his team mate for town credit, then declined it when it was up for the taking.
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Fair enough Adam. That still doesn't explain his random 180s on Thrawn and Iamp, and the fact that all of the VTs have said that he is scum...
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In regards to those 180's, I've done them before as town. Heck, I did it with you this game. I thought 'this guy has potential to be scum, wonder what happens if i poke him', then you get an answer so far from what you were expecting that you instantly bin your read on them. This happens even more often with people you play with frequently, as Hapa, Iamp and Thrawn do.
180's without justification draw attention, just as you're proving. Unless Hapa is trying to double-fake out, a scum hapa would be more likely to back out of his read by actually putting some shitty justifications in there for his 180, like Yamato's back flip on me.
As to those quotes:
The first quote, thrawns, specifically says "kill Yamato first".
Marvs reads are horrendously outdated at this point, having not been around for a single duel. I still really respect his input, and have referenced his reads several times, but Marv also had Thrawn as "kill it with fire", only for him to flip town.
Iamp, well, he tried to get me killed also, so I know some of his reads are off the mark as well.
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@Adam: at the time that thing went down, Keirathi was active in the thread and you had not yet posted your townie list of reads. Hapa would have a hard time going back on his town read of you right then, but if you were to do more stupid stuff and Keir kept up his activity level, he might have been able to flop. There was hope that he could be "convinced" to switch to you. It was his escape route.
Anyway, here's the evolution of his Kei read:
On February 26 2013 08:23 Hapahauli wrote:
So my preferred duel right now is two of the Dieno/Snarfs/Thrawn.
A lot of people think Kei is scum, but I'm pretty firmly null on him. He played a hell of a scum-game in GSL I Mini, and I'm chalking his absence up to business rather than something sinister. The inactivity is unusual for his town OR scum games, and I can't draw any conclusions from it.
Fair enough: absent != scum is a good point. He repeats this point a few minutes later.
Then the duel happens, and Keir responds:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 27 2013 00:32 Hapahauli wrote:Mornin' all. Have a busy day in school today, but I'll be checking in-and-out of the thread today. Will have some free time tonight thankfully. Woah did not expect that. First things first: 1) I'd prefer not to double-lynch. Forcing people to take sides is in our best interest information-wise. Deciding on a double-lynch right now is a cop-out. 2) Adam's duel doesn't look that bad to me. Consider his opening post: Show nested quote +On February 25 2013 10:06 Adam4167 wrote:
This started 30 minutes after i went to bed, bleh =(
I agree with Yamato, If i see scum, i'll make my case and duel them.
Forcing two other people to duel at your behest is weak - man up, take responsibility for your reads.
Dieno, your opening post was quite bad. You seem to be trying to make friends with and please everyone, while saying absolutely nothing of value. Step it up or get dueled tomorrow.
He thought Kei was scum, and dueled him. I think his decision was stupid, but it's consistent with how he approached the game.
If I had to pick one, I'd lynch Kei right now. Kei hasn't done anything to prove to me that he's town. He's lurked a lot, and his case on Adam wasn't very strong. Adam has approached this game with a lot more bravado than I'd expect from his scum persona. ##Vote Keirathi
Honestly, I don't see how you can read this as a forceful post in favour of lynching Keirathi. The forceful "Adam must be town" stuff comes later. This post, however, is about the opposite of forceful. It is a continuation of a very careful stance on Keirathi, but now combined with a "I don't understand how a scum would do this"-read on Adam. While this conclusion seems correct, it takes a remarkable cool to reach that conclusion immediately. It's quite a bit easier to reach if you already know the conclusion and just have to fill in the reasoning.
On February 27 2013 04:25 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 04:11 Keirathi wrote:On February 27 2013 04:01 Hapahauli wrote:On February 27 2013 03:52 Acrofales wrote:On February 27 2013 03:50 Hapahauli wrote:On February 27 2013 03:47 Acrofales wrote:On February 27 2013 03:43 Hapahauli wrote:On February 27 2013 02:51 Acrofales wrote:On February 27 2013 02:42 Hapahauli wrote:Oh damnit sniped by Oats. On February 27 2013 02:37 Oatsmaster wrote:
[quote]
Wait what? How many games have you played with Kei?
You are calling Keirathi scummy for not playing to his town meta or his scum meta, but Adam is not scum because he isnt playing to his scum meta, or his town meta as Acro showed.
How did you get this reasoning? I've played a couple of games with Kei, and heavily obs'd some more games that he was in. And you're completely twisting my argument. Yes Kei is playing differently than I've seen him play as both alignments in the past. However, I'm voting Kei right now because Adam's actions make very little sense from a scum-Adam perspective (given meta, demeanor, bravery, etc), and Kei has given me no reason to think he's town. If you take Adam's meta, demeanor and bravery into account, how can you ignore his town meta? He has never done anything remotely like pulling a stunt like this. Not in CT, not in WLIIA and not in LIX. The other games I recall from him are Hero where he was scum and a couple of games where he was modkilled for inactivity. Please explain how meticulous Adam, who writes cautious cases deliberating different angles, suddenly throws caution to the wind and says "FUCK YOU, I'M PALMAR BITCHES". What part of Adam's town meta am I missing? But that's the thing - have you ever seen ANYTHING like this from scum Adam? No. It's at odds with his town mentality yes. However, it's even MORE at odds with his scum mentality. Why is Keir being a lurker, something Keir clearly knows is a stupid scumtell, still a scumtell? It is clearly at odds with both of his metas and you seem to think scum is more careful to not stand out like a sore thumb. Thing is, I don't think Kei is intentionally lurking or anything. A lot of his posts have suggested he's busy with work/whatever. His lurking doesn't seem intentional, thus the situation is very different from Adam's intentional DERP duel. So if Keir isn't intentionally lurking what do you find suspicious about his behaviour? Firstly, a major reason I'm voting Kei is because I'm pretty sure Adam is town. As for Kei himself, he hasn't given me any reason to think he's town at all. That and I didn't like his early interactions with Adam. His initial case made no sense to me, and Kei's constantly qualifying that he's not committing to his suspicions: Nothing else. I'm not entirely convinced Adam is scum, but I wanted some comments on it. I'd appreciate it if someone could look at my points about Adam and give some comments other than "lol bad". Tell me why. Maybe I'm just paranoid. I mean, at least he did take some kind of stance, and he's right, it was against the grain and I would normally give a few townie points for that. I'm just failing to see how, in this particular instance, his stance is beneficial to town, because I can't really predict any scenario in which he'll have to back it up. AFAIK, i never said "Okay guys, Adam 100% scum lets lynch him". I saw something, and mentioned it to the thread to get some feedback. Maybe my original post wasn't full fleshed out, but it made sense as I talked it out more, no? How does that make me scum? My point didn't change, I just explained it better. And so what, I was being non-committal towards the read. I demonstrably do that as town on day 1. What makes me scum this time, but not the others? Thing is Kei, you've done barely anything this game. Does the above make you 100% scum? No, but it's a point against you. At this point, I just need to see some activity/scum-hunting from you. If you're town, you have to prove it.
Translation: Keir, please give me a reason to stop bussing you.
After this point, he flops around a bit between being "very comfortable with his vote on Keir" and being cautiously null on Keir.
What in this vote is forceful? The ONLY thing Keir is forceful on is that he doesn't want a double-lynch and his earlier town read on you had pretty much closed the possibility on double-lynching.
Hapa left the door open to flop reads until after the thread momentum had clearly swung to lynching Keir.
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EBWOP: The ONLY thing Hapa is forceful on...
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Acro, i'm not arguing that Hapa is being forceful, in fact his non-forcefulness is one of my reasons for thinking hes town.
If you're going to bus there, you'd commit to it and completely railroad Keirathi.
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On March 05 2013 00:29 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2013 00:26 Sylencia wrote:On March 04 2013 23:52 cDgCorazon wrote:Alright, well I've come to my decision. It was a tough one, so I decided to take a look at all of the veteran TLers who have flipped VT this game and see their thoughts: On March 03 2013 12:48 thrawn2112 wrote:
d3: lynch yamato.
if yamato flips scum then do whatever the hell you want. if yamato turns out to be town I think hapa and acro should be flipped next. On February 26 2013 07:59 marvellosity wrote:
Ok, so I'm hoping deadline is about to happen. Here's what I think of people so far.
Probably town:
yamato - aggression, thread presence, decent reads, etc
People I'm a bit suspicious of:
Hapahauli - he's just done nothing to make me think he's town, and Hapa is very capable of coming across town. Like iamp mentions, defends himself too much instead of doing proactive things. *could* just be a bad start.
On February 28 2013 12:38 iamperfection wrote:On February 28 2013 12:29 Adam4167 wrote:
No, that is called being unavailable.
How the hell is not being here 24/7 mafia motivated? its calling having a life outside this forum. hapa is in the same time zone as me. Hapa knows that playing mafia is a commitment hapa knows proving your towniness is important hapa knows that activity and discussion are how you catch mafia He has shown no interest in those things top it off with his shit start that was all defense and no scum hunting and the simple explanation is that hapa is mafia. And the survey says... ##Vote: HapaAlso I cannot see any possible ways that Hapa's actions could be town-oriented. I could see Yamato's play being town a lot easier (still hard though) than Hapa's play. I don't have much to add to today's duel - the only point I can really add is that while you're using other opinions to decide your vote, can you really value marv's judgment as equal as others? He says it in his post himself - 'could be a bad start', seeing as how he was in the game for 24 hours where some people hadn't talked yet. Personally, I find Hapa's defense posts in day 3, his read on yamato during day 2 and yamato's duel-while-everyone-is-afk to really add up to a compelling argument for me to vote yam. On the other hand, considering day 1 and day 2 have resulted in a mafia lynching I don't see why yamato is actually just openly claiming that a lynch on him is ok to get more info. After reading the case on Hapa, I also find it to be rather weak - primarily the day 2 case on Hapa. The only compelling thing for me is the disappearance of Hapa during the later stages of that duel but I think the quotes provided don't make for a strong scum case against him. I'm going to be sleeping on this, but I don't honestly expect to be coming up with many miracle answers to this problem and in advance I'm going to apologize (primarily to Cora here) for being such a useless townie. On a side note, if we want to maximize our chances of winning, one of the next duels should result in a double lynch. (Town chooses kill today, Night Kill, Town, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town) gives us 6 kills to choose from and 3 controlled by scum. This is different to Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town where we get 5 kills and they still get 3. tl;dr sometime during this duel or the next 2 duels, we have an extra spare lynch. This is assuming no vig/protection/thingswhichstop1NK. It's never too late to redeem yourself Syl. Who do you think is the last (hypothetical) scum assuming that Yamato and Hapa aren't bussing each other?
Zare has a high chance at the moment no matter who gets chosen, but after thinking through it during the night it's quite possible that Yamato and Hapa are both town, which means there could still be another scum. If that's the case, the other thing I'm a bit suspicious about are how clear pro-town players who are providing a lot of insight in comparison to others didn't get killed instead of the ones who are dead. While thrawn was also an active player, his reads were definitely a lot more off in comparison to Acro/Adam.
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On March 05 2013 08:05 Adam4167 wrote:
In regards to those 180's, I've done them before as town. Heck, I did it with you this game. I thought 'this guy has potential to be scum, wonder what happens if i poke him', then you get an answer so far from what you were expecting that you instantly bin your read on them. This happens even more often with people you play with frequently, as Hapa, Iamp and Thrawn do.
180's without justification draw attention, just as you're proving. Unless Hapa is trying to double-fake out, a scum hapa would be more likely to back out of his read by actually putting some shitty justifications in there for his 180, like Yamato's back flip on me.
As to those quotes:
The first quote, thrawns, specifically says "kill Yamato first".
Marvs reads are horrendously outdated at this point, having not been around for a single duel. I still really respect his input, and have referenced his reads several times, but Marv also had Thrawn as "kill it with fire", only for him to flip town.
Iamp, well, he tried to get me killed also, so I know some of his reads are off the mark as well.
But there was a justification. It was just a completely stupid justification. On both Iamp and on thrawn. Snarfs put it very succinctly at the time for his switch on Iamp.
Yamato's flip can be completely explained by RAAAAAAAGE. I felt the exact same. I had a town read on you for you N1 play and then you dueled, which I felt was an incredibly anti-town move at the time. Immediate conclusion: who does anti-town shit? Anti-town people. Conclusion: Adam is scum! And then when my scumread on Keir became more conclusive, I upgraded that to 3P, because you had completely destroyed any trust I had in you.
If you read Yamato's posts at the time, they radiate this exact same thought process.
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On March 05 2013 08:18 Sylencia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2013 00:29 cDgCorazon wrote:On March 05 2013 00:26 Sylencia wrote:On March 04 2013 23:52 cDgCorazon wrote:Alright, well I've come to my decision. It was a tough one, so I decided to take a look at all of the veteran TLers who have flipped VT this game and see their thoughts: On March 03 2013 12:48 thrawn2112 wrote:
d3: lynch yamato.
if yamato flips scum then do whatever the hell you want. if yamato turns out to be town I think hapa and acro should be flipped next. On February 26 2013 07:59 marvellosity wrote:
Ok, so I'm hoping deadline is about to happen. Here's what I think of people so far.
Probably town:
yamato - aggression, thread presence, decent reads, etc
People I'm a bit suspicious of:
Hapahauli - he's just done nothing to make me think he's town, and Hapa is very capable of coming across town. Like iamp mentions, defends himself too much instead of doing proactive things. *could* just be a bad start.
On February 28 2013 12:38 iamperfection wrote:On February 28 2013 12:29 Adam4167 wrote:
No, that is called being unavailable.
How the hell is not being here 24/7 mafia motivated? its calling having a life outside this forum. hapa is in the same time zone as me. Hapa knows that playing mafia is a commitment hapa knows proving your towniness is important hapa knows that activity and discussion are how you catch mafia He has shown no interest in those things top it off with his shit start that was all defense and no scum hunting and the simple explanation is that hapa is mafia. And the survey says... ##Vote: HapaAlso I cannot see any possible ways that Hapa's actions could be town-oriented. I could see Yamato's play being town a lot easier (still hard though) than Hapa's play. I don't have much to add to today's duel - the only point I can really add is that while you're using other opinions to decide your vote, can you really value marv's judgment as equal as others? He says it in his post himself - 'could be a bad start', seeing as how he was in the game for 24 hours where some people hadn't talked yet. Personally, I find Hapa's defense posts in day 3, his read on yamato during day 2 and yamato's duel-while-everyone-is-afk to really add up to a compelling argument for me to vote yam. On the other hand, considering day 1 and day 2 have resulted in a mafia lynching I don't see why yamato is actually just openly claiming that a lynch on him is ok to get more info. After reading the case on Hapa, I also find it to be rather weak - primarily the day 2 case on Hapa. The only compelling thing for me is the disappearance of Hapa during the later stages of that duel but I think the quotes provided don't make for a strong scum case against him. I'm going to be sleeping on this, but I don't honestly expect to be coming up with many miracle answers to this problem and in advance I'm going to apologize (primarily to Cora here) for being such a useless townie. On a side note, if we want to maximize our chances of winning, one of the next duels should result in a double lynch. (Town chooses kill today, Night Kill, Town, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town) gives us 6 kills to choose from and 3 controlled by scum. This is different to Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town where we get 5 kills and they still get 3. tl;dr sometime during this duel or the next 2 duels, we have an extra spare lynch. This is assuming no vig/protection/thingswhichstop1NK. It's never too late to redeem yourself Syl. Who do you think is the last (hypothetical) scum assuming that Yamato and Hapa aren't bussing each other? Zare has a high chance at the moment no matter who gets chosen, but after thinking through it during the night it's quite possible that Yamato and Hapa are both town, which means there could still be another scum. If that's the case, the other thing I'm a bit suspicious about are how clear pro-town players who are providing a lot of insight in comparison to others didn't get killed instead of the ones who are dead. While thrawn was also an active player, his reads were definitely a lot more off in comparison to Acro/Adam.
Yay now we are getting somewhere Zare =)
Can I ask for a vote next?
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He has explosive rage because someone complied with his wishes to 'see keirathi hang'. He said "someone make it happen".
Someone did. Someone he had a town read on. It should have been an open and shut case for Yamato, he asked for it, got it, vote goes down, exactly like Thrawn did.
And you didn't have a townread on me, you had 'not playing to scum meta, but null'.
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EBWOP: Lol I was thinking too much about Zare: I meant
"Yay now we are getting somewhere Syl =)"
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EPT
