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On March 05 2013 08:13 Adam4167 wrote:
Acro, i'm not arguing that Hapa is being forceful, in fact his non-forcefulness is one of my reasons for thinking hes town.
If you're going to bus there, you'd commit to it and completely railroad Keirathi.
Not if you think there's a way out. It was early, the duel was unexpected and while I am unfamiliar with Keir's scumplay other than that one game a billion years ago that I read, in that game he was pretty damned crafty.
Nowhere in that whole process do I get the feeling that Hapa wanted to lynch Keir. Now he wasn't the only one in the group of people who lynched Keir without actually wanting to...
Now the earlier point was that it was such an expert bus, because he was early on the vote and pushing Keir forcefully. Now I showed (multiple times) that Hapa was far from forceful despite being an early voter. Now the lack of his forcefulness makes him townie. Since when does "lack of will for lynching a scumbuddy" speak of a town mentality?
Combine that with his pisspoor D1 play, the metas that don't add up and all the reasons for Yamato being town and Hapa is a far better lynch than Yamato.
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I never made the point that it was an expert bus because it was forceful?
It wasn't. Which makes it unlikely to be a bus. Scum want to ride a bus for all its worth to get something out of losing a team mate.
You can throw your vote back on Hapa, i reread the relevant part of the game, I still think Hapa will flip town.
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On March 05 2013 08:18 Sylencia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2013 00:29 cDgCorazon wrote:On March 05 2013 00:26 Sylencia wrote:On March 04 2013 23:52 cDgCorazon wrote:Alright, well I've come to my decision. It was a tough one, so I decided to take a look at all of the veteran TLers who have flipped VT this game and see their thoughts: On March 03 2013 12:48 thrawn2112 wrote:
d3: lynch yamato.
if yamato flips scum then do whatever the hell you want. if yamato turns out to be town I think hapa and acro should be flipped next. On February 26 2013 07:59 marvellosity wrote:
Ok, so I'm hoping deadline is about to happen. Here's what I think of people so far.
Probably town:
yamato - aggression, thread presence, decent reads, etc
People I'm a bit suspicious of:
Hapahauli - he's just done nothing to make me think he's town, and Hapa is very capable of coming across town. Like iamp mentions, defends himself too much instead of doing proactive things. *could* just be a bad start.
On February 28 2013 12:38 iamperfection wrote:On February 28 2013 12:29 Adam4167 wrote:
No, that is called being unavailable.
How the hell is not being here 24/7 mafia motivated? its calling having a life outside this forum. hapa is in the same time zone as me. Hapa knows that playing mafia is a commitment hapa knows proving your towniness is important hapa knows that activity and discussion are how you catch mafia He has shown no interest in those things top it off with his shit start that was all defense and no scum hunting and the simple explanation is that hapa is mafia. And the survey says... ##Vote: HapaAlso I cannot see any possible ways that Hapa's actions could be town-oriented. I could see Yamato's play being town a lot easier (still hard though) than Hapa's play. I don't have much to add to today's duel - the only point I can really add is that while you're using other opinions to decide your vote, can you really value marv's judgment as equal as others? He says it in his post himself - 'could be a bad start', seeing as how he was in the game for 24 hours where some people hadn't talked yet. Personally, I find Hapa's defense posts in day 3, his read on yamato during day 2 and yamato's duel-while-everyone-is-afk to really add up to a compelling argument for me to vote yam. On the other hand, considering day 1 and day 2 have resulted in a mafia lynching I don't see why yamato is actually just openly claiming that a lynch on him is ok to get more info. After reading the case on Hapa, I also find it to be rather weak - primarily the day 2 case on Hapa. The only compelling thing for me is the disappearance of Hapa during the later stages of that duel but I think the quotes provided don't make for a strong scum case against him. I'm going to be sleeping on this, but I don't honestly expect to be coming up with many miracle answers to this problem and in advance I'm going to apologize (primarily to Cora here) for being such a useless townie. On a side note, if we want to maximize our chances of winning, one of the next duels should result in a double lynch. (Town chooses kill today, Night Kill, Town, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town) gives us 6 kills to choose from and 3 controlled by scum. This is different to Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town where we get 5 kills and they still get 3. tl;dr sometime during this duel or the next 2 duels, we have an extra spare lynch. This is assuming no vig/protection/thingswhichstop1NK. It's never too late to redeem yourself Syl. Who do you think is the last (hypothetical) scum assuming that Yamato and Hapa aren't bussing each other? Zare has a high chance at the moment no matter who gets chosen, but after thinking through it during the night it's quite possible that Yamato and Hapa are both town, which means there could still be another scum. If that's the case, the other thing I'm a bit suspicious about are how clear pro-town players who are providing a lot of insight in comparison to others didn't get killed instead of the ones who are dead. While thrawn was also an active player, his reads were definitely a lot more off in comparison to Acro/Adam.
Agreed on the NK analysis. It doesn't help the current decision process though. Who do you want to lynch out of Yamato and Hapa?
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On March 05 2013 08:31 Adam4167 wrote:
I never made the point that it was an expert bus because it was forceful?
It wasn't. Which makes it unlikely to be a bus. Scum want to ride a bus for all its worth to get something out of losing a team mate.
You can throw your vote back on Hapa, i reread the relevant part of the game, I still think Hapa will flip town.
Do you think Yamato will flip scum?
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I still find it more likely than most.
Someone has to die here. I cannot agree to it being Hapa, so by default - Yamato.
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Adam: I implore you to reread Marv bussing you in Hero Mini. He opens the door on lynching Tunkeg instead of you about a million times.
And that was probably the best bus I have seen on TL ever (you could claim LI, but that was such a shitstorm that nobody knows how that turned out). As a general rule: scum don't want to bus their teammates on D1.
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Forgot a sentence:
Even if scum feel forced to bus their teammates, they don't want to. Their heart is only in it once they see it's inevitable.
Only exception to this rule: the scum is Mattchew.
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I was scum in both of those games you mention, so id like to think ive been on the info side of two of the better busses in the last year. Its given me a good perspective of what is likely to be a bus and the trademarks of a bus, hence why I latched onto Z-BosoN in chrono.
I do not see this as a bus. If it is, I will give Hapa much more credit from now on, because this was really well done.
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Oats and Cora still haven't fully justified their switches onto Hapa yet.
Hapa's switch on iamp WAS pretty scummy, but I really think that of all the results of the first duel, Hapa looked the most town coming out of it than anyone save for Adam, IMO. Scum had every opportunity to get Adam lynched at the point that Hapa defended Adam instead, and considering that we know that scum was already ON Adam (Dieno), I don't see why Hapa would also be scum and then vote opposite of one scum mate while busing another. That's a recipe for ruining the entire scum team.
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EBWOP: And THEN bus that other scum mate on Day 2. It just makes no sense.
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Like, if Hapa was orchestrating a double-bus, surely he would use that to leverage some kind of confirmed townie status, but I haven't seen him strutting about as if he can say whatever he wants and get by for free. He's still pretty careful and discerning from what I can tell.
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Yeah, it just doesn't make sense.
Dieno overreacted badly to my pressure on D0, plenty of people went completely silent on it, Hapa wasn't one of those. Drawing attention to your teammates fuckups so early on N0 is unlikely, as acro has already pointed out, scum don't bus unless they have to.
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EBWOP: D0 should be N0, but w/e.
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Adam. What do you feel the chances of scum Oats are?
I was trying to consolidate your town read on Hapa with my town read on Yamato... and that brought me to Snarfs, Oats and Alderan.
Out of these, Oats has played the most erratic, but I keep coming back to 2 things:
1. The senseless provocation of Marv
2. Dieno's only spontaneous scumread was on Oats.
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Nop. Still not seeing any of them as scum and that still leaves Hapa.
@Syl, Alderan: feel free to have an opinion at any time!
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Adam if it was so obvious that dieno was scum, why was he not discussed till day 2?
There was no mention of him dueling at all. Even though Hapa 'pushed' him.
Actually Hapa didnt push keir at all now that I look back, he has just been really passive and didnt really try to stop the adam mislynch, just voted for Keir and peaced out. Also his vote was made in a way so that he could switch really easily. The strongest point against hapa is meta. As scum your activity drops like a stone and its clearly evident with hapa. The difference is too stark.
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Does anyone else have this eerie feeling that we are lynching two townies and the two lurkers are not voting to maximize the damage to the town?
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Why does it matter Cora?
We are not going to double lynch. Probably.
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On March 05 2013 12:23 Oatsmaster wrote:
Why does it matter Cora?
We are not going to double lynch. Probably.
Well it looks like the people who are going to vote aren't going to change their minds, and the other two have been constant lurkers. I'd say the chances of a double lynch are good.
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EPT
