This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 108

On March 05 2013 16:58 yamato77 wrote:
I have been thinking about this very problem and I have come up with a list of people we force into duels after this to find the remaining mafia, because everyone else is PROBABLY town at this point. Right now we are at 8 - 2 town to mafia, assuming no third parties and 4 starting mafia. Assuming we NEVER double lynch, and mafia's shot always goes through (as it has been), this is how the game plays out.

Hapa flips town 6 - 2 tomorrow.
Hapa flips mafia 7 -1 tomorrow.

Zare - Alderan should be the duel tomorrow, no questions asked, either way Hapa flips. Hopefully one of them proves to be town, if Hapa is mafia. If he's town, both of them have a good shot at being mafia together, honestly. Regardless, best case scenario is the game is over, all mafia dead. Worst case scenario is 4 - 2 mylo after this, with 5 -1 being the MOST LIKELY scenario, as having zero mafia out of the group of Hapa/Zare/Alderan seems highly unlikely.

Cora - Acro should be after that. If it's MYLO, or there's new analysis from a mafia flip, this might change, but it is how I would play it out today. If two of those three flip town and the other looks really town, it means a player we've been ignoring for a while is likely mafia, so my bet is one of these two, seeing as neither would have been involved in any duels at this point and been under serious pressure. If we're at 5 - 1, the worst case scenario is 3 -1 the following day, and this duel likely gives us a serious look into the alignment of both of these players.

At that point, it would highly depend on who is still alive, and who is not. Hard to call. You and I SHOULD be dead by then. Most likely 3 -1 MYLO is Snarfs/Sylencia/Oats/Cora, IMO, but you never know.At any rate, 3 - 1 MYLO should be a no lynch, easy to enforce by policy lynching anyone who calls for a duel, as it only helps mafia and hurts town. 2 - 1 LYLO is a coinflip, but by then town should have enough info to pick out who is most likely mafia.

4 - 2 MYLO could also be a no lynch, but I feel like 3 - 2 LYLO is easier to lose, and 4 - 2 MYLO is easier to hit mafia than the 3 - 1 / 2 - 1 counterparts, so I would take my chances with Cora/Acro.

Oats/Snarfs both highly green to me, so that is how I made this assumption. Sylencia/You also unlikely to be mafia, but it's a LYLO possibility that one of you might be mafia and used the duel mechanic to clear your name.

On March 05 2013 17:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
Its 3am EST
Only us SEA/Aus people around now except yamato.

Why is it wrong if we want to kill zarepath tomorrow?

On March 01 2013 07:19 Alderan wrote:
Just found out that some friends as well as my girlfriend will be coming to visit this weekend. Giving everyone a little heads up that my activity will probably be down from Friday night to Monday morning, but hell I'll probably still be more active than half the thread.