This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 103

On February 28 2013 15:31 Hapahauli wrote:
Arg got swamped with more schoolwork today. Fortunately I'm done with class for the week tomorrow afternoon, so I'll be much more available after then.

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Reads

So to state the obvious, Adam is very unlikely mafia. It would make virtually no sense for Adam, a scumplayer known for his passivity, to jump in and risk himself in a duel to bus his scumbuddy. Knowing the allignments of both players on the block yesterday, we should be able to narrow down some of our suspicions based on how votes paned out.

(Even if some people think Adam is a 3rd party, it's effectively the same thing from a mafia perspective.)

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People Who Voted Adam (Sylencia +Dienosaur)

They've played almost identically so far: they've done a whole lot of nothing in the early game, then plopped an early vote on Adam at the beginning of the voting cycle, then proceeded to do much of nothing until now.

They're both lurkers who haven't made any significant commitments and had their vote in awful places. I want both of them to duel tomorrow, and I'd push for a double-lynch unless I get convinced that one of them is town.

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The "Double-Lynch" Voters (iamperfection + Acro + Thrawn)

iamperfection is active and behaving to his townie persona (as I previously mentioned). Acro is the most active player in the game so far and hasn't been afraid to take the town leadership position. Slightly offputting from his filter is his 3rd party read on Adam (which I think is nonsense), however that's certainly not a reason to lynch him at this stage.

Something about Thrawn is off, and I think he's a likely 3rd party. While he was one of the earlier votes on Kei, when push came to shove, he voted for the double-lynch. While that isn't bad in itself, what's most concerning is how and why he did so.

First of all, the timing at which he switched to a double-lynch is remarkably convenient. The votecount was 4-2 in favor of Adam, and zaperath + Snarfs JUST voted for Kei, swinging the momentum of the lynch. At this point, Thrawn immediately latches onto the idea of double-lynching very strongly. It reads a lot like he's seizing the opportunity to do collateral damage, when you consider some of the rationale for his switch.




He suddenly becomes very very convinced that Adam is a 3rd party in the first quote. This is just a feel for him from our history together, but I just can't see town-Thrawn having such high confidence in a 3rd party read. I haven't seen anything of the sort in the past games I've played with him.

The second quote is also very notable for two reasons:
1) he starts setup-speculating and just sounds a lot less confident that Adam is 3rd party.
2) He's justifying lynching Adam because he "can't be too certain" that Kei is scum. Yet he had been pushing the idea aggressively .

Combined with his inactive start, there's something just... off about Thrawn. I think Thrawn is a possible mafia that bussed Kei, but is more likely a 3rd party.

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People who only voted Kei (Snarfs + zarepath + Alderan)

For Snarfs + Zarapeth, of these guys voted only voted Kei, and did so at a time that seemed to swing the momentum onto Kei's bandwagon. Both of their filters are pretty "meh," but I can't find anything overtly scummy there, and their voting actions (and timing) suggest a townie motivation.

For Alderan, there's nothing really conclusive in his filter since he was pretty clear that he thought both people on the block were town. His attitude is consistent, and I sympathise with it having initially been in the same situation to some extent. Also, I got some town vibes from his huge fight with Acro about not wanting to double-lynch. I'd expect mafia to not be as adamant against the idea.

Point is, none of them should be a priority for tomorrow.

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People who SWITCHED from Adam to Kei (Yamato + Oatsmaster + Corazon)

Here's where it gets interesting.

Yamato... I had initially labeled him as very town due to his early-game aggression, but his activity died off in recent days. In addition, he's more than capable of being an aggressive dick as mafia (from my experience in British Mini Mafia).
He starts off the day all aboard the Adam train while defending Kei:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360&currentpage=35#685

He maintains that Kei is town throughout the day. With Adam, he reverses course later in the day. The thing is that the reasoning with which he switches off Adam is so paltry in comparison to why he thought Adam was scum (see link above). These are the standouts:



So in Yamato's world, Adam is playing to mafia objectives, but he all of a sudden drops suspicion because Adam's posts now seem "townish." Compare this again to his initial "outline" of suspicion on Adam:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360&currentpage=35#685

Within an hour of dropping his suspicions on Adam, he's immediately onto Kei:


Yamato's actions come across as very convenient, however I can see a town Yamato doing what he did. The town Yamato I've seen in his newbie games and Mafia LVIII is very spazzy and aggressive, and is capable of his sudden turn in attitudes about Adam. I'll be interested in what he has to say tomorrow.

Oatsmaster seems townie due to his activity and his thought-process during the duel proceedings. He seems to care a lot about scumhunting... and well... just thinks a lot like a townie. Hard to put my finger on it, but it seems very genuine. That, and him being suspicious of marv in the early game against pretty much everyone else doesn't seem like a scum move to me.

Corazon
Pretty simple. Starts the day off on Adam:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360&currentpage=38#747

Then spends a lot of time going after Syl. What's notable, is that Corazon really never bothers to analyze Kei's filter. His attitude on Kei is one of neutrality and hesitation:


Eventually when opinions of the town start to shift, Corazon arrives at the idea that both Adam and Kei are town... due to Sylencia's vote on Adam?!?!?!?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360&currentpage=48#956

He argues that Sylencia being non-committal makes both of them not scum, which makes zero sense. It's not scumhunting, it's a complete cop-out from doing any analysis

Then shortly after, there's his vote post:


Why would a townie care about "posturing" for tomorrow? A townie wants to hunt and kill scum. I don't think he's talking about "posturing" of other townies either, since he mentions an agenda. This also makes no sense - why would Kei flipping town set back his agenda of lynching Syl? In fact Kei flipping town would seemingly confirm his theory that Syl's indecision = both Adam/Kei are town.

So Corazon's actions line up with mafia objectives, and his switch onto Kei is very suspect. He never gives a strong opinion on Kei, and his vote-post is nonsensical.

On February 28 2013 15:54 Hapahauli wrote:


My full proposition for tomorrow is this:
I'd like Dieno and Sylencia to duel, unless one of them starts showing some significant townieness. I'd also like to double-lynch 'em by default and leave it up to them to prove that they're town individually. If one of them does, I'd add Corazon to the list.

As for HOW we should go about that, well you can only start by asking nicely. If that doesn't work, we can probably force one of them to duel the other by threatening to have Adam duel one of them (which is basically a vigi-shot given that there's no sane way that Adam's scum).

As for who I'd duel myself, I wouldn't duel period. I think my voting actions speak for themselves yesterday. I get that I'm less active than usual, but it should be obvious that I'm playing to town objectives. Nor do I get the sense that there's any support for me dueling tomorrow (besides iamp anyway).

If you're asking for a top scumread - it's hard to differentiate between Dieno/Sylencia since they've both played nearly identical games. Put a gun to my head, and I'd say Dieno on the basis that Sylencia has a history of being lurky as town in some of his newbie games, whereas Dieno's town performance in CT was pretty darn active.