Dandel Ion will be hosting this game, with iamperfection (filter), the Almost-Perfect, and thrawn2112 (filter), the Best Smurf In The Lands, performing the parts of the cohosts. Please PM us with any questions you have about the game, and make sure to send all of us any night actions you may have.
Mafia Coach is Toadesstern, the dastardly Shyster. Town Coaches are Promethelax, the Beard of Babylon, and debears, the Mad Caser.
Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating: Standard rules apply. If you're not familiar with them, please read them below. + Show Spoiler +
Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players unless cleared by the host in advance. Otherwise, only you may post on your account. 11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM. 12. Posting a false role PM phrased as if you received it from the host. You can still fake roleclaim, but you cannot make it look like you are posting a PM you received from the host.
Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs:
On April 26 2011 13:22 mikeymoo wrote: Smurfs must PM the host because TL doesn't allow multiple accounts otherwise. If the host is unaware of smurfs, you (and/or your smurf) can be banned for having multiple accounts.
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here. This also means you should condense your posts when possible. 15 one-liners in 30 minutes is unacceptable.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be replaced. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Flamewheel, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Flamewheel, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about replacements/modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Out of thread communication:
It is common for mafia (and town circles if PMs are allowed) to use a medium outside of TL such as QuickTopics or IRC to communicate during the game. Please be mindful that other players may be more tech savvy than you and they may attempt impersonate members of your team or attempt to infiltrate your chat. You use these media at your own risk.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes here, and only vote here. Do not PM us your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. To change your vote, post ##unvote, then vote normally. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game uses Plurality Lynch. The person with the most votes gets lynched. For somebody else to get lynched, he needs to overtake the current lynch-ee in votes. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. 7. You may vote for a no-lynch by posting ##vote: no lynch in the thread.
Signups:
This game is open to anyone who has played three or less games of Mafia on TL. Signups will remain open until all 9 spots have been filled.
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=114622]TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/mytlnet/index.php?view=new&to=Flamewheel]Flamewheel[/url] or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until Day Three. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list. Replacements are greatly preferred over modkills, so please PM one of the hosts if you are willing to replace in and don't ask for the obs QT.
Clues: There are (no) clues.
PMs PMs are (not) allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 48 hour day/24 hour night cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 00:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change. Actions/votes will be accepted up to and including the posted time, but not after. Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so. I will not compensate for ignorance!
This is a semi-open setup. There are four possible setups, and which setup is chosen will be RNG'd. The chosen setup is never revealed, but it should be deductible as the game goes on. This setup is based on the F11 Setup, with a Jailkeeper replacing the Medic.
You're a Vanilla Townie! You would like to be an Übermensch one day, but you just don't quite cut it. Doesn't hurt to try, though. Your vote is your only weapon, but it's a darned good one, so don't worry about it. You win when all Nihilists have been eradicated.
You're a Cop! As a great Ontologist, you know all the intricacies of any philisophy out there. Each night, you can discuss philosophy with a person of your choosing. During this discourse, you will find out if they think Substantialistic or Nihilistic. You win when all Nihilists have been eradicated.
You're a Jailkeeper! You are the biggest Existentialist in town. You have a shrine of Sartre in your bedroom and masturbate to Simone de Beauvoir at least daily. Each night, you may utterly bore somebody with the details of the existentialism you love so much (even though nobody else does). They will not be able to do anything else since you are so demanding, but other people will also stay clear of you, as to not have to bear listening to you. As such, your target will be roleblocked, but also protected from taking any damage that night. You win when all Nihilists have been eradicated.
You're a Goon! You are but a simple Nihilist. You don't really get all the intricacies of the philosophical side of things, but you're pretty damn good on the practical side. You may erase a meaningless life during the night, but you well know it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. You win when you outnumber all Substantialistic schools of thinking or nothing can prevent this fact. Not that winning matters. Your Partner In Nothing is [X], and a QT has been provided here: [X], though you can of course communicate otherwise too.
You are a Roleblocker! You take this Nihilism shit to the next level. You're so damn good at it, you can reduce the actions of a person of your choosing to nothing each night, just with the power of your mind. You may block the same person on consecutive nights. You may also erase a meaningless life during the night instead of the Goon, but you well know it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. You win when you outnumber all Substantialistic schools of thinking or nothing can prevent this fact. Not that winning matters. Your Partner In Nothing is [X], and a QT has been provided here: [X], though you can of course communicate otherwise too.
Possible Setup:
The setup used for this game will be randomly chosen from the following four setups:
Goon + Roleblocker, Jailkeeper + Cop, five Townies
2 Goons, Cop, six Townies
2 Goons, Jailkeeper, six Townies
Goon + Roleblocker, seven Townies
Q&A
Town wins when there are no more scum.
Scum wins when they outnumber town or nothing can prevent this from happening.
Scum KP is fixed at 1.
This game uses plurality lynch - The one with the most votes gets lynched. In case of a tie, the one that got there first wins the race!
Targets who are roleblocked are always notified if they have been roleblocked.
Role PMs may vary slightly from the ones shown here.
Jailkeepers may not target themselves.
There are no 3rd Party Planar Dragons in this game. Probably.
Notes
Roleblockers roleblocking each other will roleblock both of them. Roleblocker A blocking Roleblocker B who tries to roleblock Randomguy C will result in only B being roleblocked.
One person on the mafia team may carry out the kill each night. The mafia can choose not to kill. The mafia can kill each other. If the mafia member chosen to kill on a particular night is roleblocked, no kill will occur. The roleblocker can roleblock somebody and perform the nightkill in the same night, should you choose to do so.
There are no hit notifications in this game.
All successful roleblocks will result in the target being notified.
If there are any questions about the setup, they may either be PMed to me or posted in the thread inbold green text
shamelessly stole this from EchelonTee. thanks mate!
Newbie-specific stuff
It's already in the rules, but remember, no editing. If you feel you must correct your post, please make a second post to clarify your statements. You may put EBWOP ("Edit by way of post," a handy acronym invented by semioldguy) at the beginning of your post to indicate that you are clearing up a point you made. If your EBWOP post is several posts after your original, please quote your original post in your EBWOP post for the sake of clarity.
Another thing in the rules: Don't talk about this game outside of the thread. Keep everything right here.
Only sign up if you know you will have the time available to properly play the game. It is essential that players remain active in a newbie game, so only /in if you are able to play to your fullest.
If there is any sort of issue, you are unsure about some mechanic, or you are just wondering if your devilish scheme is even allowed, feel free to PM me, or ask in-thread with green text. Don't feel shy; these games are meant to be a place to learn and be open.
Behave as gentlemen (or ladies). Things get heated here, but personal attacks will not be acceptable, and will be dealt with accordingly. Remember, this is a game; have fun and happy scumhunting!
On December 24 2012 10:17 Dandel Ion wrote: Hapa sounded so reluctant about coaching and Prome so excited, like a puppy that ran against a door.
I was more like intending to encourage people to PM prome more, but ofc I'd never encourage people to not PM any coach. PMing coaches is always good.
I'm totally down and eager to coach, it's just that I feel that I've been monopolizing things as of late. I think I've coached the last... 7-8 newbie games? I'd love to see some young-blood in =)
On December 24 2012 15:50 debears wrote: Townies that I coach seem to die n1....I don't get it
LOl.. to be honest, i wish I asked you and Hapa more questions.
But, I never knew what to ask
I think the best way you can learn/correspond with a coach is to ask them for critical opinions on your reads/cases. It's a good safety-net against confirmation bias, and you get to see how an experienced player thinks about reads and tells.
On December 24 2012 15:50 debears wrote: Townies that I coach seem to die n1....I don't get it
LOl.. to be honest, i wish I asked you and Hapa more questions.
But, I never knew what to ask
I think the best way you can learn/correspond with a coach is to ask them for critical opinions on your reads/cases. It's a good safety-net against confirmation bias, and you get to see how an experienced player thinks about reads and tells.
Thanks will try this next game. I just didnt think youbguys wanted to be bogged down with reading cases when your active in one or two games. Good to know we can pester. So will take better advantage.
On December 24 2012 15:50 debears wrote: Townies that I coach seem to die n1....I don't get it
LOl.. to be honest, i wish I asked you and Hapa more questions.
But, I never knew what to ask
I think the best way you can learn/correspond with a coach is to ask them for critical opinions on your reads/cases. It's a good safety-net against confirmation bias, and you get to see how an experienced player thinks about reads and tells.
Thanks will try this next game. I just didnt think youbguys wanted to be bogged down with reading cases when your active in one or two games. Good to know we can pester. So will take better advantage.
lol feel free to send cases. It's probably the best way for you to learn
Debears, you interested in coaching town this game? I was thinking about reading this game blind from Day 1 and making a video about my reads each day of the newbie game.
On December 24 2012 16:43 Hapahauli wrote: Debears, you interested in coaching town this game? I was thinking about reading this game blind from Day 1 and making a video about my reads each day of the newbie game.
WTF is the point of this scum roleblocker if they're place against 7 vanillas with no actions to block?
Makes the scum-team super-paranoid about a blue role =P
It's like having a mafia-framer against a team of townies without a cop. Colossal mindfuck.
Scum already know that the RB, 7 VT setup exists because you posted it in the OP but whatever, it's the host's game. I'm just ready to rape some scum.
Yes but goon + roleblocker is possible with either 7 vts or 5 vts + cop + doctor The point is that the roleblocker does nothing against 7 vts, but it makes it so that scum don't know if town has cop+doctor or not. Although town is more favored with the blue roles compared to without, I'm guessing the host will roll town/scum and then decide which setup to take for balance purposes (depending on experience of either side)
edit: The only blue roles the OP shows in detail are Cop and Jailkeeper, as opposed to Cop and Doctor =]
On December 24 2012 10:17 Dandel Ion wrote: Hapa sounded so reluctant about coaching and Prome so excited, like a puppy that ran against a door.
I was more like intending to encourage people to PM prome more, but ofc I'd never encourage people to not PM any coach. PMing coaches is always good.
I'm totally down and eager to coach, it's just that I feel that I've been monopolizing things as of late. I think I've coached the last... 7-8 newbie games? I'd love to see some young-blood in =)
I wouldn't exactly call myself young-blooded either to be honest :p
Although I don't coach that much and when I coach everyone's like "yay, Toad coach mafia, gg no re!!"
WTF is the point of this scum roleblocker if they're place against 7 vanillas with no actions to block?
Makes the scum-team super-paranoid about a blue role =P
It's like having a mafia-framer against a team of townies without a cop. Colossal mindfuck.
Scum already know that the RB, 7 VT setup exists because you posted it in the OP but whatever, it's the host's game. I'm just ready to rape some scum.
Yes they know it and that's beneficial to town. As mafia there's multiple things you can shoot at night. Strong townies, right townies, blue townies or weird townies (not recommended). If Mafia does not know wether or not town has a blue they have to think about wether they want to try and eliminate a blue or a strong townie, which obviously is a bad thing for mafia if there's no blue to begin with and they're just hitting suboptimal due to their paranoia.
If the 7VT vs 1RB set-up did not exist (instead it would be 2 goon vs 7VT like you said) mafia would know that town has a blue the second they have the RB and would have a slight advantage over town considering knowledge of the set-up. It's basicly wifom against mafia to make up for the slightly better position they got.
It's quite clear that you're not actually a newbie. I'm also pretty sure you know full well what a smurf is.
If you really want to play in this, I am not going to restrict your access to this game, but I'd like for you to go into your mind and determine if you really need to play in a newbie game.
Technically, the rule is "less than 4 games on TL", but if you don't need to learn in a newbie, you yourself should have the mental presence to find that out.
On December 25 2012 02:47 Dandel Ion wrote: Don't play dumb.
It's quite clear that you're not actually a newbie. I'm also pretty sure you know full well what a smurf is.
If you really want to play in this, I am not going to restrict your access to this game, but I'd like for you to go into your mind and determine if you really need to play in a newbie game.
Technically, the rule is "less than 4 games on TL", but if you don't need to learn in a newbie, you yourself should have the mental presence to find that out.
The OP said games on TL, so I was following the rule. If the rule doesnt actually apply, I can go elsewhere.
On December 24 2012 16:43 Hapahauli wrote: Debears, you interested in coaching town this game? I was thinking about reading this game blind from Day 1 and making a video about my reads each day of the newbie game.
Do we really need 3 coaches? If debears and prom want to coach I can get out and one of them coaches mafia while the other one does town. Usually when coaching I hardly get enough pm's to encourage myself to actually read the thread on a voluntary basis alone and therefor have to force myself to do it :p
That's why I said "if coaches are needed" earlier. Unless of course prom wants me to coach mafia really badly. Can't refuse a request like that :p
Dunno really. I never PM'd any coaches in my newbies (WHICH IS WHY IM SO BAD NOWADAYS, USE YOUR COACHES)
But the last few newbies had multiple town coaches, though that was imo more because more people wanted to coach, not because more are necessary. I also placed Hapa more like a backup coach than anything else.
If you don't want to bother with coaching, I can make dibbers do maffa coaching. No sweat.
(Also, lately the newbie maffa's have been spoiled by the coach camping their scum QT and actively yelling at them for doing stupid coaching. Which might be a bit "unfair" to town, but at least they learn.)
I also have to attest that I find you sexually attractive, and that attraction goes way up when you coach.
On December 25 2012 07:46 Toadesstern wrote: Do we really need 3 coaches? If debears and prom want to coach I can get out and one of them coaches mafia while the other one does town. Usually when coaching I hardly get enough pm's to encourage myself to actually read the thread on a voluntary basis alone and therefor have to force myself to do it :p
That's why I said "if coaches are needed" earlier. Unless of course prom wants me to coach mafia really badly. Can't refuse a request like that :p
I don't read the thread when I coach now.
Something that syllogism or someone said about giving the town too much of an advantage if we read the thread
On December 25 2012 07:46 Toadesstern wrote: Do we really need 3 coaches? If debears and prom want to coach I can get out and one of them coaches mafia while the other one does town. Usually when coaching I hardly get enough pm's to encourage myself to actually read the thread on a voluntary basis alone and therefor have to force myself to do it :p
That's why I said "if coaches are needed" earlier. Unless of course prom wants me to coach mafia really badly. Can't refuse a request like that :p
I don't read the thread when I coach now.
Something that syllogism or someone said about giving the town too much of an advantage if we read the thread
don't even need to read the thread sometimes tho. i guessed at hapa that kickstart was scum in whatever game it was purely on what aquanim sent me as his cases.
You can easily make it the 12 person version of this game but anything between 9 and 12 really sucks for this kind of game (13 works as well with a little tweak). So usually you wait for the designated amount of players and start once that's reached and not on *instert date / time* for the sake of starting on at a special time / date.
On December 27 2012 23:48 Toadesstern wrote: You can easily make it the 12 person version of this game but anything between 9 and 12 really sucks for this kind of game (13 works as well with a little tweak). So usually you wait for the designated amount of players and start once that's reached and not on *instert date / time* for the sake of starting on at a special time / date.
Given how long the game is already open for signups, I'm pretty sure I won't need to upgrade to 12p
On December 27 2012 23:48 Toadesstern wrote: You can easily make it the 12 person version of this game but anything between 9 and 12 really sucks for this kind of game (13 works as well with a little tweak). So usually you wait for the designated amount of players and start once that's reached and not on *instert date / time* for the sake of starting on at a special time / date.
Given how long the game is already open for signups, I'm pretty sure I won't need to upgrade to 12p
Well you'll likely get a flood of people when XXXIII finishes
On December 28 2012 12:30 jaybrundage wrote: Can i /in im honestly terrible at mafia.
/in if possible
You have played more games than I have Jay. Who are you kidding?
Doesnt mean im not terrible XD. NP ill shall be terrible else where.
Yeah, but your newbie times are over. Talk to people about your play after games, reread your play from games and think about what you could have done better, hydra with better players and play more games. Those are the things I know of which can help you improve.
On December 29 2012 07:56 Dandel Ion wrote: Get a (secret) personal coach for all your games :D
That's actually allowed, so it doesn't even have to be secret, though telling people sounds/looks weird I guess. I've done that maybe twice. But the Hydra-one is the funniest one imo. Being a hydra with Sandro was really awesome for example.
Definitely going to hydra some time soon again if possible :p
I see. For bragging purposes. Doesn't work if syllo gets in the thread and tells people you only did what he told you to do though.
Edit: Gosh, when is this going to start... I'm going to end up with more posts than people at the end of this game like this :p You're probably best to pm everyone before this starts to make sure everyone's still here and you don't start with replacements...
My current mathematical estimations show that half of them will not respond, we will wait for ~4 new people and by the time we have them the other half is MIA. Kinda like the neverending story, only that the title is the only thing they have in common.
For replacements I'll take what I can get usually. Yamato in xxxiii had more than his share of games but was a recent graduate. Just try to find people who are almost newbies. Mr CC is, in my opinion, close enough to that to let him replace in if you don't have a real newbie to do it.
Yeah but because of DA RULES, only games on TL count. It's real easy to just say "no totally no games played never" anyways.
People like that usually only join Newbie games to troll (like the guy in XXIX youre talking about), so it's not actually an unfair advantage for anyone. Lynch/modkill and move on with life.
On December 31 2012 11:09 Spaghetticus wrote: This game will likely be a little less hectic with the number of people that played in XXXIII. We'll almost have an established meta :D
On December 31 2012 11:09 Spaghetticus wrote: This game will likely be a little less hectic with the number of people that played in XXXIII. We'll almost have an established meta :D
On December 31 2012 11:09 Spaghetticus wrote: This game will likely be a little less hectic with the number of people that played in XXXIII. We'll almost have an established meta :D
On December 31 2012 11:09 Spaghetticus wrote: This game will likely be a little less hectic with the number of people that played in XXXIII. We'll almost have an established meta :D
NOO!!!!!
the last game was way too inactive for my liking
So will I be lynched this time if I suck Day 1?
Try not to find out
Well now that I know the answers to those questions matter, I won't find out.
On December 31 2012 11:09 Spaghetticus wrote: This game will likely be a little less hectic with the number of people that played in XXXIII. We'll almost have an established meta :D
NOO!!!!!
the last game was way too inactive for my liking
So will I be lynched this time if I suck Day 1?
Try not to find out
Well now that I know the answers to those questions matter, I won't find out.
On December 31 2012 11:09 Spaghetticus wrote: This game will likely be a little less hectic with the number of people that played in XXXIII. We'll almost have an established meta :D
NOO!!!!!
the last game was way too inactive for my liking
So will I be lynched this time if I suck Day 1?
Try not to find out
Well now that I know the answers to those questions matter, I won't find out.
Those first opening questions.
Those opening questions are just small talk; I wouldnt be too concerned with it; anyone can go into another thread and copy/paste a response from a "confirmed" townie.
On December 31 2012 11:09 Spaghetticus wrote: This game will likely be a little less hectic with the number of people that played in XXXIII. We'll almost have an established meta :D
NOO!!!!!
the last game was way too inactive for my liking
So will I be lynched this time if I suck Day 1?
Try not to find out
Well now that I know the answers to those questions matter, I won't find out.
Those first opening questions.
Those opening questions are just small talk; I wouldnt be too concerned with it; anyone can go into another thread and copy/paste a response from a "confirmed" townie.
Well if you remember I almost got lynched because of them...
Nah, I've got less than two weeks of vacation time at home left before I'm gone overseas for the rest of the year and I intend to rest up, sleep late, hang out with family & friends, etc. NMM33 took a lot out of me and I'm not quite up for more just yet.
Alright, confirmation PMs are going out now. please respond to them in an affirmative fashion. If everybody confirms in the next 7 hours we could even start today (unlikely though)
If somebody doesn't confirm by the deadline-time tomorrow (00:00 GMT (+00:00)), we will open signups for his spot yet again. He is of course welcome to rejoin then, should he just have been a little slow.
mmmm trying to understand the game but then i saw the TL Mafia LVIII thread. thats another mafia or is pro mafia? (thinking that am in the newbie mini mafia thread)
On January 03 2013 06:54 yamato77 wrote: TL Mafia LVIII is where the more experienced players attempt to destroy each other's lives with ridiculous amounts of posts.
This newbie mini is where you want to be, believe me.
I agree with one of your sentences. (HINT: ITS THE SECOND ONE) But only so you can try if you like the game, and learn the basics. Which is what newbie games are for.
Dandel Ion had a grand new business idea: Free hugs for everybody. Sadly, the income was not so great. Even worse was when he forgot to tell people about it. The real problem though, lay within the quite literal interpretation he gave the term "everybody".
Suffice to say, people were none too happy about it. Which is weird, because everybody should be able to appreciate a good ole hug. Or so Dandel Ion thought.
As in every bad soap opera, Dandel Ion met the love of his life while he was busy with working out this hugging stuff. It was iamperfection. That was not actually his real name, but to Dandel Ion, it might as well have been.
They lived in happiness but not until ever after, because along came a twisted crook - so twisted, he shall be called thrawn for the sake of this story.
thrawn2112 shut off the TV. "Those damn soap operas, always the same shit and it's racist against us thrawny peoples again and they don't even exist anyways."
A well-timed growling thunder could be heard just as this preposterous sentence was finished. thrawn2112 was not quite certain if he was supposed to deny the existence of this thunder too, but he figured he could give it a pass since the perfect timing was really dramatic and sometimes you just need some emphasis, even if it doesn't matter.
A second clap of thunder could be heard. This one less forgivable since he didn't say anything dramatic yet. Angrily, thrawn2112 started to deny it's existence with zeal. His efforts were interrupted by an angry mob. While technically, the mob also didn't exist, thrawn2112 was already busy un-existing the thunderstorm, and on top of that, it would probably be unpleasant if the mob started smashing his house in and then proceed to flay him alive. While technically that didn't matter either, he learned early in his Nihilistic career that with some things, you have to forget about their non-existance for a while.
thrawn2112 opened the door and faced the mob. "Dandel Ion and iamperfection lie dead, united eternally in death! And we clearly saw the dramatic thunderstorm around your house! Obviously it's your fault. Bet you're one of those thrawny Nihilist guys to boot! Fellow aspiring Übermenschen, unite!" Yelled the elected mob-spokesman.
All things considered, thrawn2112's response was pretty sensible: "Well that totally matters to me and life is not meaningless. Trust me guys."
Unfortunately, he forgot to turn off the red paint after his last dramatic sentence. Whoops!
thrawn2112 has been slaughered by a mob of angry Substantialists! Dandel Ion and iamperfection died, but this being a bad soap opera, the writers forgot to mention it, so we don't know how! The Substatialist Mob has tasted blood and seeks to eradicate all those lazy pesky serial-murdering Nihilists! The Nihilists keep murdering people in their free time, because really, you might as well.
Game has started. It is now Day 1. You have 47.5 hours to decide on a lynch. To vote for a lynch candiate of your choice, type "##Vote: marvellosity" in the thread. Voting is mandatory. You may vote for a no-lynch. This game uses Plurality lynch. The one with the most votes at the end of the day gets lynched. In case of a tie, the one that got to the number (or a higher number) of votes first gets lynched.
IMPORTANT: Day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00) as a one-time-only deal. the night deadline and all consecutive will be at 00:00 GMT (+00:00) as intended.
gl, hf and don't forget to bugger your coaches about everything and anything.
Very well, I might as well get the discussion started:
2 questions:
1) Lynch all Lurkers or not? If I could, I would probably change this policy to "suspect all lurkers". While lurking benefits mafia more, it isn't necessarily a scummy action. However, they should be pressured to contribute to the scumhunt and give up what information they know. So while it's a good place to start looking, it shouldn't make the town get tunnel vision as they put pressure on lurkers and let scum who are active go undetected.
2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
I'll save this answer for after more people have discussed it.
Whoa didn't expect it to start tonight. I'm extremely tired guys and I was about to go to sleep till I saw the PM. I'll catch up tomorrow when I wake up x.x
Quickly though - for those of you who played with me last game my views stay the same for Policy lynches. We shouldn't lynch the lurkers D1 just because they aren't active, we need to actively scum hunt and push our top scum reads. I WILL lynch liars though. Townies don't need to lie in this game.
That's all I've got to say about that I'm looking forward to this getting going!
"I am all for discouraging lurking, but policy lynching should never be a substitute for scum hunting. This game is about building well reasoned cases against suspected scum, pressing them, and the discussing and logically evaluating the cases on the strength of the evidence. When town is able to foster active, productive discussion, lurking is just another scummy behavior to be used to build up a case against suspicious players, and prolonged lurking in particular becomes more suspicious as the game continues.
There is never a good reason for town to lurk. Only by discussing our reasoning and lines of thought can we hope to find and eradicate scum. Town must never clam up for fear of making mistakes -- 1. it is through discussion that we may hope to correct errors in reasoning; and 2. more importantly, in the event of a mislynch, it would leave trail for others to follow. Hence, a silent townie is a far more useless than a bad townie.
I feel that it is futile to try to set predefined activity standards for what amounts to lurking; every game varies. Quality is also important. Insofar as fostering a healthy level of activity goes, this game is off to a good start; what we need to do now is to keep the discussion going. When we do get to the point when a few individual players are clearly standing out as not contributing productively (whether as a consequence of lurking or otherwise) we shall evaluate those cases at that time.
Policy discussion is nice to start the ball rolling and get people posting, but now that a good chunk of us are here, we need to switch our focus to scum hunting soon.
I did promise I would quote Cakepie
In all seriousness though:
Now that I am aware of my alignment I can go ahead with my plan to hopefully reduce lurker play styles.
My intention is every 12hrs, I will post a summary post which is going to give a count of every players posts in that interval. Depending on the effort required, I may also summarise how many I think are fluff, and how many are (IMHO) genuine attempts to scum hunt.
My expectation is that this will highlight to all players: who is trying to contribute, and who is flying under the radar.
The knock on effect is, this tool should help stimulate town discussion and present additional options for scum hunting, and person(s) to apply pressure.
2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie? Simple. They will most likely do nothing. As evidenced in Newbie Mafia XXXIII, active townies were lynching townies who deviated from the status quo and built up confirmation bias until a wagon started. All the mafia had to do was stay silent, and let the townies do the work.
This leads to a valid point raised by Spaghetticus in Newbie Mafia XXXIII.
The fact that there is almost zero effort by anyone to change the subject of our lynchery screams silently as to the lack of frustration expressed by covert scum. By lynching this early with no resistance, not only are we denying ourselves the opportunity to collect more data for day two, we are almost certainly doing the scum’s jobs for them.
LASTLY
3) What time zone are you in?
Can players please confirm time zone, so at least we can appreciate whether responses are not to be expected.
Same stance as last game for me. If we have enough information to lynch someone then we should go ahead and do so but if we are really lacking enough information (which shouldn't happen) then lynching a lurker is a viable option. This mainly applies for day 1 only and changes depending on the flow of the game, but that is how I see it.
As for misdirection, from last game there were a few ways to do it. Finding a flaw in someone's argument and jumping on it, or by bringing up stuff in the last minute and trying to get people to bandwagon.
Personally, I hated the last minute votes, so if possible can we please have everyone come forward with reads when you find them? Leaving to an hour left is pretty ridiculous considering how not everyone would be there to defend or to change their vote (assuming the info is good)
On January 03 2013 11:08 Spaghetticus wrote: My position is the opposite of Omni's. Lying is justifiable but lurking is not. Death to he who lurks!
Interesting. I assume this aligns with your previous thoughts from Newbie Mafia XXXIII..
On December 19 2012 11:00 Spaghetticus wrote: For lying I am the same. In the one game I've played I lied to hide that I was a cop. If you lie this draws massive attention, but it's important to look for motive, intention, and possible outcomes as well.
@Spaghetticus You believe lying as a blue power role is acceptable. I will not choose to debate this, it is your opinion.
What I would like you to expand upon is the following:
Obviously it is in the nature of mafia to lie. If you ask a mafia player.."Are you mafia", we can not expect them to reasonably answer "yes".
Thus, if both YOU and the mafioso have an inclination to lie (as indicated above);
How am I, or the remaining town players meant to reasonably differentiate you from the scum that surrounds town?
These players all just played in the same game:- - Corazon - Mocsta - Omni - Spag - Sylencia
Of which:-
This is Corazon's second game, he has only got experience playing scum, which he did very well for the most part.
This is Sylencia's third game. He played town last game fairly well, but was hindered by life commitments for the time I remained in the game.
This is Omni's second game. Last game he played very aggressive as town.
This is Mocsta's second(?) game. He played as enthusiastic pro-town, and was NKed for his positive contributions.
This is my third game. First game I played standard town as cop. Second game I played as VT and was a little(lot!) too passive. I was lynched day one for not scumhunting, and in doing so saved their MVP scum player. I think I might dally with standard play once more to get my confidence back up :D
Could you please give us a little information on your experience of TLmafia so far (including role and playstyle), and whether you have played outside of TL before.
For those that are new, please at the very least skim through one or two of the guides provided, talk to the appropriate coach if you feel the need (you should), and inform us of any RL transgressions against the sanctity of TLMafia in advance of them actually occurring.
DO NOT LURK. IDGAF WHO PLAYS SCUMMY I WILL BE VOTING THE LURKIEST PLAYER DAY ONE PERIOD.
I am on EST, and I don't see any current relevance to discussing whether or not a blue should lie.
I would rather no-lynch on the first night than lynch lurkers, personally. I would think that first day lurkers in a newbie mafia game are more likely than not to be bored townies, especially considering the slow-roll start to this mafia game. I think that engaging in a Lynch Lurkers policy assumes that our town environment will be poor, and I'd rather simply create an environment without lurkers.
I don't know how I feel about Mocsta's summary plan. I think people should be smart enough to realize who's contributing and who's not on their own, and a summary like that every twelve hours gives the impression of contributing without actually doing it.
@Zare I have the feeling Mocsta's contribution shall be substantial regardless (an educated guess). How much experience do you have?
@Mocsta You are supposed to differentiate between lying scum and lying town by attributing motive to action. If I lie and don't have any plausible town explanation, I am scum (or terrible town). If I lie and only have possible town motives, I'm town (or intricately clever scum). If I lie and have both town and scum explanations for my behaviour, you need to infer the likelihood of the possibilities and arrive at your own understanding. This third option is not a null read in most instances, as town should strive to keep things simple (an thus not lie) unless they see a very good reason not to. Town should not lie without town motive, and part of that motive is not having their lie detected and blown out of proportion by hungry town and scum alike.
I've only played one other game online, and it's that filter. I was an active mafia, possibly too active and then a little too defensive when attention was called upon me.
@Mocsta I've bumped up my lurker response to Code: Lynch. I was all about being flexible with interpretation before, but not any more (at least not for lurkers). My approach to lurkers is fresh for me, so you will not find it in my filter. My policy on liars remains the same.
On January 03 2013 11:44 zarepath wrote: I would rather no-lynch on the first night than lynch lurkers, personally. I would think that first day lurkers in a newbie mafia game are more likely than not to be bored townies, especially considering the slow-roll start to this mafia game. I think that engaging in a Lynch Lurkers policy assumes that our town environment will be poor, and I'd rather simply create an environment without lurkers.
That is your prerogative, and I will not hold the "no-lynch" against you yet; due to your rational regarding town environment - I happen to agree.
I don't know how I feel about Mocsta's summary plan. I think people should be smart enough to realize who's contributing and who's not on their own, and a summary like that every twelve hours gives the impression of contributing without actually doing it.
Very fair point. I was hoping someone would pick this up. I agree, summary posts like can be construed as "mock/scum" contributions [on the proviso, it is the only contribution]
However, that is not the intent of the summary post.
I agree whole-heartedly, that a lurker does not immediately suggest scum play. I also agree that it may indicate a bored townie.
In fact, I am also in general alignment with your thoughts on town environment.
I want to help facilitate a town atmosphere where: - we DO NOT just target (read: bandwagon) outspoken individuals - who typically will be townies. Rather, - we enable the identification of people are flying under the radar and question them. [In addition to ongoing scum hunting]
I think this is a valid tool that can be used to re-enforce scum hunting.
Thus,the summary post is a mechanism that *in theory should* enable us to identify suspicious person(s) to question further. The corollary is that it may also help identify people whose attitudes are town motivated.
Ultimately, I plan to be an active participant in the town environment; I expect my actions to speak louder than words.
I agree with the utility of a summary post for town. If his contribution is all fluff we will know, and a running list is useful to keep a more holistic perspective on mafia happenings.
On January 03 2013 12:17 Spaghetticus wrote: I agree with the utility of a summary post for town. If his contribution is all fluff we will know, and a running list is useful to keep a more holistic perspective on mafia happenings.
Do you think it's something that only a townie would do? While we can certainly give Mocsta credit for keeping tabs on everyone, I wouldn't call it a town oriented move.
I welcome it, but it would be a null point on my opinion of you Mocsta.
Mocsta will do more than post lists, and so long as the effort is appreciated by town as an indirect means of improving the town's position, it is pro-town behaviour whether it is recognised as such or not.
Confirming oneself as town is not the only objective of town players, thus Mocsta should continue regardless of whether it confirms him as town or not.
On January 03 2013 12:34 cDgCorazon wrote: Do you think it's something that only a townie would do? While we can certainly give Mocsta credit for keeping tabs on everyone, I wouldn't call it a town oriented move.
I welcome it, but it would be a null point on my opinion of you Mocsta.
@Corazon I guess you didn't read my wall text... let me requote it for you.
On January 03 2013 12:11 Mocsta wrote: Ultimately, I plan to be an active participant in the town environment; I expect my actions to speak louder than words.
Anyways, I don't want to waste further conversation on this.
My point was to highlight I plan to create these summary posts, not to ask for approval. If there is constructive criticism of them after the first couple, I will open ears to discussion; however, for the time-being, I am going to implement what is in my head - and see if it works.
Furthering matters, cDgCorazon, your a person who has a history for succumbing under pressure.
So I am voting for you for 2 reasons.
(1) I don't like your response.
On January 03 2013 10:36 cDgCorazon wrote: 2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
I'll save this answer for after more people have discussed it.
Why do you need to wait? What is the town motive behind this?
(2) You have started the discussion, but it has largely been useless so far [ Bet you recognise this one, sorry for the in-joke]
As for the way discussion REALLYstarts... someone throws down a vote.
##Vote: cDgCorazon You have proven (in the past game) that you can actively provide new approaches to old ideas. However, so far your posts have been a boring regurgitation of old content (of which you don't even fully address).
On January 03 2013 10:36 cDgCorazon wrote: 2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
I'll save this answer for after more people have discussed it.
Why do you need to wait? What is the town motive behind this?
I was waiting to say a point that I had already answered in XXXIII. Something that you actually agreed with.
Remember, if the mafia have to accuse someone who is town of being scum, the townie has to make a ridiculous error, or their case has to be a very good lie in order to sway the town to vote for them. So they would need to have a logical post, but it would also need to turn a lie into a really strong argument. They need to convince the town that this person is scum, but they cannot go too far, for fear they are trying to push a lynch and get a townie voted.
I was going to wait to see if you guys remembered, and to give the new players a chance to think about the question instead of force-feeding them knowledge, which is the same approach you took here:
On January 03 2013 11:44 zarepath wrote: I would rather no-lynch on the first night than lynch lurkers, personally. I would think that first day lurkers in a newbie mafia game are more likely than not to be bored townies, especially considering the slow-roll start to this mafia game. I think that engaging in a Lynch Lurkers policy assumes that our town environment will be poor, and I'd rather simply create an environment without lurkers.
That is your prerogative, and I will not hold the "no-lynch" against you yet; due to your rational regarding town environment - I happen to agree.
I'm not coming out and saying that you are mafia, I was just saying that you would have to do more over the course of the game than just make a list of posters.
However, your early pressure is not characteristic of scum, so this does give off a town read to me. I will give you that. Although there's no need to be firing a warning shot so early when only a handful of people are posting (or even know that the game is started.)
@Corazon or Zare Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now?
@Corazon I wouldn't be so certain about your read on Mocsta. This is exactly the way you would expect him to act if he rolled scum. He has a meta to conform to regardless of alignment. I have a near null read on him.
On January 03 2013 13:25 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon or Zare Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now?
On January 03 2013 13:31 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon I wouldn't be so certain about your read on Mocsta. This is exactly the way you would expect him to act if he rolled scum. He has a meta to conform to regardless of alignment. I have a near null read on him.
I have a null read on everyone right now. While I know now that these questions actually matter, we can't look too deep into things right now. It's only been less than 4 hours.
On January 03 2013 13:18 cDgCorazon wrote: However, your early pressure is not characteristic of scum, so this does give off a town read to me. I will give you that. Although there's no need to be firing a warning shot so early when only a handful of people are posting (or even know that the game is started.)
(1) Its too early to be talking about town tells. In particular because
"only a handful of people are posting"
(2) Your overall response exhibits the calmness and reasoning of a townie, but on the other hand, your "pretend townie" mafia play has proven to be of a decent calibre.
People say a Vanilla Townie may be bored as they have no "power".
I disagree.
During the Day, VTs/Blues/Mafia are all equal: with one VOTE to cast. Each as valid as the next one. The pressure of a lynch is nothing to laugh at, or throw recklessly. [This vote was not thrown recklessly]
Out of respect for your last game, I will continue to exercise my right: to treat you with caution.
Thus, the vote will remain.
[I am at risk of flooding the thread so will take a breather] I hope someone from the USA shift uses this vote as a medium to engage more conversation with yourself.
I conclude with:
On January 03 2013 12:50 Mocsta wrote: As for the way discussion REALLYstarts... someone throws down a vote.
On January 03 2013 13:18 cDgCorazon wrote: However, your early pressure is not characteristic of scum, so this does give off a town read to me. I will give you that. Although there's no need to be firing a warning shot so early when only a handful of people are posting (or even know that the game is started.)
(1) Its too early to be talking about town tells. In particular because
(2) Your overall response exhibits the calmness and reasoning of a townie, but on the other hand, your "pretend townie" mafia play has proven to be of a decent calibre.
People say a Vanilla Townie may be bored as they have no "power".
I disagree.
During the Day, VTs/Blues/Mafia are all equal: with one VOTE to cast. Each as valid as the next one. The pressure of a lynch is nothing to laugh at, or throw recklessly. [This vote was not thrown recklessly]
Out of respect for your last game, I will continue to exercise my right: to treat you with caution.
Thus, the vote will remain.
[I am at risk of flooding the thread so will take a breather] I hope someone from the USA shift uses this vote as a medium to engage more conversation with yourself.
On January 03 2013 12:50 Mocsta wrote: As for the way discussion REALLYstarts... someone throws down a vote.
I think you're looking too much into the last game. If you're voting me because you can't tell the difference between whether I'm acting as townie or I am a real townie, you should give it more time. I think you're letting last game get in your head just a little bit too much.
On January 03 2013 13:25 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon or Zare Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now?
Scum know who they are and get a QT immediately.
(1) Corazon, if I was you, I wouldn't have bothered answering that.
If you read the OP, its clear what the PM role details are, and does indeed state the Scum QT link.
(2) Is it not curious, at this early stage in the game. Spag ALREADY feels the need to distance himself from being town PERCEIVED as knowledgable in "scum behaviour".
Interesting indeed.
@Spag. (1) Why would you not address this question to the mod? (2) The question you seek is common knowledge, again, accessible from the OP. Why did you choose to elucidate this? (3) Please use this opportunity to distance yourself from any other scum behaviours, you supposedly are not aware of. <Insert Scum Tools>
(1) I wasn't sure if blue or green was used to ask questions, one of them is the mod font, I did not want to get in trouble if I guessed wrong. (2) I did not want to look at the OP. I chose to elucidate it out of laziness, but also because of the small potential to generate discussion. There was no downside in my mind. (3) Other scum behaviours? I popcorned if that's what you're talking about? I'll be more than willing to talk about that later. I also both supported and posted lists? I'm not sure if this question is empty or not.
I've got 3.5 hours at most until I go to bed, I have a commitment on in 18 hours that will likely last at least 8 hours. I'll be able to respond in the morning with any luck. If you have discussion please present it now. I will be more than active as soon as I have the opportunity.
On January 03 2013 14:12 Spaghetticus wrote: (2) I did not want to look at the OP. I chose to elucidate it out of laziness, but also because of the small potential to generate discussion. There was no downside in my mind.
Either that's pretty slack or pretty scum. The OP contains pretty important info like the possible setups, so if you choose to ignore the OP, it's pretty hard for you to be picking up clues people are leaving behind.
On January 03 2013 13:32 TeMiL wrote: so here we go! pd: im going to learn a lot of english :D
Welcome! Would you like to answer the questions which Corazon posted before? Since I haven't played with you before it would be nice to get your views on the game before we get down to the nitty gritty side of things.
On January 03 2013 10:36 cDgCorazon wrote: 1) Lynch all Lurkers or not?
Lurkers contribute nothing to town, so if we don't get a scumread, I think lynching a lurker is fine D1.
2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
By not being suspicious. If they are careful and appear as townies, we don't have a way of identifying them as scum. Just flying under the radar while townies aggressively blame eachother leading to a misslynch is a perfect mafia D1.
On January 03 2013 11:15 Mocsta wrote 3) What time zone are you in?
GMT +2, so all the deadlines are like 2:00 for me -.-
On January 03 2013 11:42 Spaghetticus wrote: Could you please give us a little information on your experience of TLmafia so far (including role and playstyle), and whether you have played outside of TL before.
As I said in the /in message, this is my first time playing a forum mafia. I have played some live mafia games with my friends, but live mafias use a different set of skills, like reading bodylanguage.
@Spaghetticus
On January 03 2013 11:42 Spaghetticus wrote: DO NOT LURK. IDGAF WHO PLAYS SCUMMY I WILL BE VOTING THE LURKIEST PLAYER DAY ONE PERIOD.
So you would rather lynch a lurker than a strong scumread D1?
@Sylencia I'm a pretty slack guy, this is not news.
Is it not curious, at this early stage in the game. Spag ALREADY feels the need to distance himself from being town PERCEIVED as knowledgable in "scum behaviour".
- Mocsta
I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour. I am not knowledgeable about the specifics, though I was not trying to tell you this, I was merely asking for information. In no way am I claiming not to know about scum behaviour, as this would damage my ability to further my agenda whether I be town or scum. Your claim is wishful thinking or deliberate misinterpretation.
Hey was out at the beach. So hot here in Melbourne.
Pretty much agree with everything said. I enjoy reading and analysing as much as I can before I post as it's more concise to read through someone's ideas in one go instead of picking up all the short posts. I hope to support the summary idea but we'll see once the first few are out. Could be a mafia tactic against lazy townies which want to skip on the reading.
Currently, Corazon is set to be lynched! ~36.5 hours remaining in day 1. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
On January 03 2013 16:18 Sylencia wrote: Welcome! Would you like to answer the questions which Corazon posted before? Since I haven't played with you before it would be nice to get your views on the game before we get down to the nitty gritty side of things.
well this is my first first mafia ^ ^ always related with rts games so i needed a change for this year ;:D
Intent: Discussion is quite slow at the moment. I have addressed questions to each participant to promote further conversation, whether directly to myself, or to others.
Please take the time and respond to these accordingly.
If you have qualms replying to my content, please notify myself and the rest of town, why you deem this unnecessary.
(1) What do you make of Spaghetticus and his request for scum QT knowledge. If the motives are indeed town in nature, do you think it aligns with the reasoning he presented?
(2) At this stage, TeMiL & OmniEulogy have roughly the same contribution (= zilch). Which candidate do you think we should target for more information? Please lead the discussion as you did today with the opening post
(1) You mentioned not lynching lurkers D1, instead town needs to actively scum hunt. Between myself and Spaghetticus; who do you think needs to be questioned first? Please lead the discussion.
(1) With your sole post, you succintly laid down your stance on lurkers. I congratulate this efficiency of words. I understand timezones/real life schedule impacts ability to post; regardless, if this was your sole post cum lynch deadline. Using your logic, why would town choose to vote another lurker compared to your "current" self?
(2) StriX is a man also of few words. Do you think StriX is a person worth questioning further? If so, please lead the discussion. If not, please nominate an alternative.
On January 03 2013 11:42 Spaghetticus wrote: DO NOT LURK. IDGAF WHO PLAYS SCUMMY I WILL BE VOTING THE LURKIEST PLAYER DAY ONE PERIOD.
So you would rather lynch a lurker than a strong scumread D1?
(3)
On January 03 2013 11:42 Spaghetticus wrote: This is my third game. First game I played standard town as cop. Second game I played as VT and was a little(lot!) too passive. I was lynched day one for not scumhunting, and in doing so saved their MVP scum player. I think I might dally with standard play once more to get my confidence back up :D
How do you characterise your standard play? So far, your post count to post quality ratio is skewed heavily towards post count [NOT a good sign]
Is it not curious, at this early stage in the game. Spag ALREADY feels the need to distance himself from being town PERCEIVED as knowledgable in "scum behaviour".
[a] (1) ... (2) I did not want to look at the OP. I chose to elucidate it out of laziness, but also because of the small potential to generate discussion. There was no downside in my mind. (3) ... [b] I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour. I am not knowledgeable about the specifics, though I was not trying to tell you this, I was merely asking for information. In no way am I claiming not to know about scum behaviour, as this would damage my ability to further my agenda whether I be town or scum. Your claim is wishful thinking or deliberate misinterpretation.
Frankly Spag, I do not care for your response(s). (a2) Admiting laziness is not a solid town trait Spag. You know this. Its not indicative of scum play either. You know this as well. As they cancel each other out, let us now consider your potential to generate "small discussion" due to Scum QT. What did you have in mind? Please lead this discussion. (b) I never stated you were directly claiming to have limited scum gameplay knowledge. I called you out, because I expect a player of 3 games to know the answer to what you asked. Even as a player of 1 game, I knew that answer. There must be a motive, and that is what I want to find out. I will await your response to (a2) before deciding how to proceed with this.
(1) You questioned Spaghetticus behaviour as pretty slack, or pretty scum. Which are you leaning towards? Do you think your thought process is being swayed by wanting to find mafia, or do you find peculiarities in Spags phrasing making you consider scum play at hand?
(2) You identified StriX as the last contributor. Who else do you think needs to step it up? Please let these people know as you did with StriX.
(1) You mention keeping it simple, Lynch the liars + lurkers. Please expand on this. Would you chose liars/lurkers over top scum read?
(2) Noone is asking you to support the summary idea; thus, how do you propose to support town play?
(3) Your post contribution currently is on par with TeMiL and zarepath. If we are you Lynch all lurkers, which of (TeMiL, zarepath, StriX) shall town vote to lynch? Please lead the scum hunt with your chosen candidate.
(1) We are yet to have any meaningful contribution from yourself. Please share your thoughts of how Day1 has proceeded (not seeking a summary/recap; moreso, your perceptions on who is suspicious so far)
(2) What do you think of OmniEulogy and his position to not lynch lurkers. (Lurkers typically have low contribution/quality; and thus, represent your current self)
1) More slack than scum. At a glance, it looks like it could be a really obvious scum play, but after looking at it again it looks like it's just laziness.
2) Pretty much all of us should be stepping it up. With only a couple of pages of discussion going on, it's really hard for any reads to come out.
To all the first time players: Don't be scared to post. I was the first time because I didn't know what to write. I still don't know what to write. However, flying under the radar doesn't really do us any good, nor does it do you any good, that's why I'm aiming to post more than I did in my first two games, where I didn't exactly have the most input in the town. If you're town, then you should have nothing to hide from us, and telling us your thoughts will help us deduce who is and isn't town.
On January 03 2013 22:08 Mocsta wrote: (1) With your sole post, you succintly laid down your stance on lurkers. I congratulate this efficiency of words. I understand timezones/real life schedule impacts ability to post; regardless, if this was your sole post cum lynch deadline. Using your logic, why would town choose to vote another lurker compared to your "current" self?
(2) StriX is a man also of few words. Do you think StriX is a person worth questioning further? If so, please lead the discussion. If not, please nominate an alternative.
I don't think we can call anyone a lurker yet. It has been only 12 hours since the game started, and no analysis/cases have been posted. Once we get a case rolling, be it a scum or town read, we can get discussion and opinions. The only action so far is Mocstas vote for cDgcorazon based on metaread from the one game he played earlier. I'm reading through Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII to get an idea the meta of others. Expect some analysis in while.
As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
StriX is certainly a person worth questioning. Using your own newbines as an argument is usually associated with being scum, not to mention he hasn't posted much. He has no contributions to speak of. So StriX: - Who are analysing/suspecting? - Do you have any prior mafia experience outside TL?
@All Keep the spam like weather updates out of this thread. It only helps the mafia.
(1) You mention keeping it simple, Lynch the liars + lurkers. Please expand on this. Would you chose liars/lurkers over top scum read?
(2) Noone is asking you to support the summary idea; thus, how do you propose to support town play?
(3) Your post contribution currently is on par with TeMiL and zarepath. If we are you Lynch all lurkers, which of (TeMiL, zarepath, StriX) shall town vote to lynch? Please lead the scum hunt with your chosen candidate.
1. Doesn't seem logical to do that so no. As you can deal with a lying or lurking town with less punishment than .5?-1 death/night. 2. No ideas yet honestly - still getting the hang of who is who. 3. Zarepath at the moment - mainly due to his policy on no lynch. Town environment can be improved and giving a lynch which could potentially be a free scum kill away seems too steep a price to pay.
Good to see you asked Spag about the generate discussion thing Mocsta, I was meaning to post that when I first read it - completely forgot about it, then remembered again but read your questions to everyone first
3. Zarepath at the moment - mainly due to his policy on no lynch. Town environment can be improved and giving a lynch which could potentially be a free scum kill away seems too steep a price to pay.
Expanding on this, no lynch (especially on day 1) doesn't help us whatsoever. We get no information out of it, and we're stuck with most likely the same situation the next day, but with one less townie. Mafia obviously wouldn't care about this, and would welcome a no lynch with open arms.
(1) You mentioned not lynching lurkers D1, instead town needs to actively scum hunt. Between myself and Spaghetticus; who do you think needs to be questioned first? Please lead the discussion.
- Mocsta
This is scummy. You know that Omni and I have a very different approach to mafia, and last game we both found it almost impossible to not see the other as scum (we were both town). You also know Omni has a tendency to bandwagon as town, and that between you and I the current atmosphere favours you over me (you haven't been called out, I have).
By having attention brought upon both of us, you expect pressure to only be put on me. This post on it's own looks like you are trying to get someone else to set up the bandwagon for you, so you can remove responsibility from yourself when I flip town. This play in a void makes you look scummy IMO, however you do later offer yourself as a target of suspicion when rousing Zare:
(2) If stuck on items to discuss, please direct any concerns you have over my play to me to address.
- Mocsta
In my eyes this goes some way to dilute your guilt, though not dismiss it. You know this is Zare's second game and that he has zero town experience. You do not expect him to be able to make a case on you, and up until your last post, there was no sign of one. By inviting people to scrutinize your play you have not taken a risk be you town or scum, but you have increased the pressure on me from other players, which is scummy. This is not mere rousing, you have lit a fire under people and slyly directed it at me.
Just so it's clear, by "dilute your guilt", the second quote dilutes the first it by being closer to a null read, it is still half scummy.
You have also been leaping on irrelevant details (from my perspective), inflating them beyond their importance. Soft claiming 'not scum' is far too crass a move for my style and you know it. I can see that you are doing everything you can to promote town activity, and I believe this is within what is reasonable to expect from you, so I won't call scum read on this.
I would like to point out however, that picking on small and probably* meaningless discrepancies is a great scum tactic for promoting confusion, and so would suggest you lay off the UberHolmsing if you feel that the balance of probability dictates that you are more likely to mislead town. This is not a defense of my slip*. By all means, hammer me for the mistake I have already made (it was a mistake whether I be town or scum), but for the sake of town please consider the potential implications.
I will now address your questions that were directed at me.
(1) We are yet to have any meaningful contribution from yourself. Please share your thoughts of how Day1 has proceeded (not seeking a summary/recap; moreso, your perceptions on who is suspicious so far)
well mafia looks like Clue right now xD am trying to understand and be more friendly with the terminology so thats why i cant say who is who right now. in the next hour ill make my ideas but now i'm working T_T
(2) What do you think of OmniEulogy and his position to not lynch lurkers. (Lurkers typically have low contribution/quality; and thus, represent your current self)
i think everyone can choose his way to play. for me i thank that position cause like u said i'm like a lurker right now and he wont lynch me ^ ^. but that situation will change everyday while am growing in my role... ill hope so
After reading Spag's filter, I might backtrack my statement a little and say that I am now having some suspicions on him.
On January 03 2013 11:42 Spaghetticus wrote: DO NOT LURK. IDGAF WHO PLAYS SCUMMY I WILL BE VOTING THE LURKIEST PLAYER DAY ONE PERIOD.
Saying you're going to vote out the lurkiest player, combined with the scum qt question both add up to being a bit more suspicious than lazy (on the second part at least).
can pretty much explain to you and sylencia can confirm as he was moderator for that game. (mods can confirm I signed up from his ip?). We know each other in RL and he's the catalyst for me being in this game.
I was a VT which lurked quite a bit too much early game (20/20 hindsight). Misread towards the end and kept posting analysis which supported my theory and was kind of blind to a lurking mafia which lost the town the game.
Me talking about no-lynch was theoretical in regard to a blind lurker lynch, and I stand by it; however, I personally think we'll have a good enough read by the end of Day 1 for a more than fair shot at a scum. I think most lurking concerns so far have more to do with overlapping time zones than anything else.
Reads:
I agree with Mocsta on Spaghetticus -- the question about the mafia QT is suspicious, and his responses have an over-defensive tone, with a lot of "I don't knows" and "your claims are wishful thinking or deliberate misinterpretation." A townie would not be so defensive as to attack the person voting -- a townie would know, and agree, that not knowing something like that would be a kind of scum tell, and certainly wouldn't attack the other townie for "wishful thinking or deliberate misinterpretation."
In light of Spag's response (while I was writing my post), I'd like to elaborate on my read of Spag, but will await his forthcoming response to Mocsta's Q's. Meanwhile, I am checking a few other filters.
StriX: Do you consider my no-lynch comment more scummy than any other contribution in this thread?
I originally considered it scummy, however, your further actions don't seem to point towards mafia. I agree with you about timezone issue leading to false 'lurking' calls. Currently, I suspect noone and am planning to lynch the biggest lurker.
(1) What do you make of cDgCorazons play so far. What do you think of his reaction to my lynch vote?
I assume you’re done with the questioning of Corazon for now? I like people to play things out before giving reads, allowing people the most opportunities to make mistakes. By asking for my response now, I take no responsibility for any decrease in pressure applied to Corazon. I assume you’ve moved on to me anyway.
Corazon attacked your list making without thought for your motives, he assumed the only point of making the updates was to garner towncred, which is either log-headed or scummy. He was either too immersed in appearing town, and projected this motive (scummy), or is letting forum prejudice against lists colour his view, giving some easy content (spammy or unthinking). Your suspicion of Corazon’s waiting to give an answer was weak, I assume you just wanted to make sure you were pressuring (which is fine). His response was adequate, though I had a simpler explanation in mind (that he wanted people to develop their own opinions). Corozan’s reprimand on Zare is entirely expected, I believe I did precisely the same to OrangeRemi last game (I was town). Corazon then concludes that he gets a mild town read off of you (Mocsta). I have already stated my opinion on this (that it is an unfounded read). He later stated that he had a null read, whether this was because he was pressured to change, or he genuinely agreed, is still in question.
So you would rather lynch a lurker than a strong scumread D1?
Yes. Strong scum reads have already revealed a lot about themselves, and you can expect pressure on them later. Lurker scum have the opportunity to sit by and let the town destroy themselves, which is a well-known phenomenon in newbie games. From my perspective, which has changed over the course of my mafia career (this is my third game), there is no scummier behaviour than lurking. If a scum is lurking you have zero information on him day two. They have an entire 72 hours worth of chat to adjust their playstyle to. They are the most dangerous scum (second only to a scum that has managed to be confirmed town). If me or Mocsta were scum, come day two you would have a massive paper trail with which to track us down with. For that reason alone, there is no way I will be voting Mocsta day one.
From what I’ve seen, newbie games are dictated almost entirely by lurkers and their allocation of alignment. XXXIII was won by town simply because scum was two lurkers out of three players that were so lazy they didn’t even attempt to defend themselves once the bandwagon came knocking. We had OrangeRemi modkilled, and Threesr replaced. For the sake of town getting a clear scumhunting environment, for what I see as a positive move towards town victory, and for my own enjoyment of the game, I will be voting the biggest lurker unless I somehow find a completely active game (damn unlikely).
@Sylencia My LAL policy is not laziness. It is thought out, and I genuinely believe it to be the best policy for me to have. My enthusiasm for pondering conceptual queries knows no bounds, for scabbing up readily available info, not so much.
How do you characterise your standard play? So far, your post count to post quality ratio is skewed heavily towards post count [NOT a good sign]
My standard play is to actually post cases day one. My play last game was non-standard because through a mixture of laziness and curiosity, I attempted to get through day one by both being active and not scum hunting. It did not work. While I expect I will continue to tinker with this element of the game, I have scaled down my experimentation for the sake of my self-esteem (and town win-rate).
You already know most of my meta from XXXIII. I am highly analytical and loathe posting accusations that imply a reality I do not believe. I adhere to theory over empiricism, which gives me difficulties with the more aggressive players. I play for the long game, and think little of the chance of day one scum lynches. I try to encourage town play through indirect means. I emphasise original content, and am strongly averse to bandwagoning and recycling opinions. I try to keep a flexible understanding of the game, but am having difficulties converting flexible thinking into anything but WIFOM (hence the LAL update).
Admiting laziness is not a solid town trait Spag. You know this. Its not indicative of scum play either. You know this as well. As they cancel each other out, let us now consider your potential to generate "small discussion" due to Scum QT. What did you have in mind? Please lead this discussion.
I did not have much in mind. I wanted to know about scum QT so that I’d know whether scum were organised or tentative. Generating discussion was the only foreseeable outcome, though it was not my motive. The information was for my own use (not discussion), any discussion that was generated would be in people picking me up for soft claiming town. A minor and non-committal scum trap if you will. I genuinely thought it was an entirely small deal, and anyone picking up on it would be making a mountain out of a mole-hill (something I still believe). Unfortunately, you (Mocsta) picked it up, and my read on your behaviour is that it is consistent with a town Mocsta, and it seems to be backfiring pretty hard, considering how much attention you’ve brought to bear on me (normally something I welcome, but after XXXIII I’m a tad apprehensive).
(b) I never stated you were directly claiming to have limited scum gameplay knowledge. I called you out, because I expect a player of 3 games to know the answer to what you asked. Even as a player of 1 game, I knew that answer. There must be a motive, and that is what I want to find out.
I have never been scum, and I’ve always assumed they had immediate and direct communication . In between this game, and last, however, I came across some information that implied that scum were alone to begin with, and got the QT come night. I did not think on it much at the time, but once I was motivated to know the answer, it became paramount. I am now certain that I was mistaken, or reading information on a variant
I never said the LAL policy was laziness, that was in reference to the second part (regarding the QT question). The question is, if we have such a strong scum read on X, why wouldn't we just cripple the mafia team right off the bat?
The psychological impact it has one the other member is immense, especially on Day 1 where 1) They suddenly feel like the town can read through them and 2) they make desperate, and often times, stupid moves.
Instead, you're going to lynch a lurker with a 2/9 chance that you hit scum. I can understand why you want to do it, but personally I just don't think it's justifiable to leave scum be and take them out the next day. Remember that people can change their perception of someone pretty quickly in this game, for better or for worse, as we saw with Cora last game. If his teammates were a bit more active, they could have easily taken out the game and a primary reason for that would've been the sudden change to him being town in our eyes. Same thing could easily happen here, and I don't want that to happen.
On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: In between this game, and last, however, I came across some information that implied that scum were alone to begin with, and got the QT come night.
Very active, as he was in Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII. He's constantly trying to pressure people into posting, going as far as giving them advice on what to post. He was also doing it during XXXIII, so I wouldn't read too much into it. Also, he is the only one who has taken concrete actions (the vote on cDgCorazon) during this whole time. Leaning towards town
If we exclude the the QT question, he plays the way he played in earlier games. First posting a list of lurkers and pressuring them to contribute, then beginning to analyse individual cases. I believe that
On January 03 2013 11:42 Spaghetticus wrote: DO NOT LURK. IDGAF WHO PLAYS SCUMMY I WILL BE VOTING THE LURKIEST PLAYER DAY ONE PERIOD.
was his way of saying that he hates lurkers.
Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Appears to be playing diffrently from Newbie XXXIII. He hasn't been as active this time around, and he isn't as aggressive with his scum claims. And I don't think he would be purposefully bringing up his scum game so many times if he actually was a scum. Leaning towards town
Please note that the analysis on Spaghetticus was written before his post answearing questions.
From my perspective, there is no greater scum tell than lurking. This is not only because scum tend to lurk, but because the consequences of leaving it until the next day are more dire. On top of this, the percentage chance of lynching that scummy player and him actually being scum, is very low. Scum have control of the first lynch if you base it on active but scummy reads.
While XXXIII may seem an accessible counter example (we were ready to lynch a scum day one, and I intervened), this is not an accurate statistical representation. Day one scum lynch is a dream, and it is as winmore as it gets. Yes the game is easy if you catch a scum day one, but it's not likely to happen and the win-rate is to be had from planning for day two.
Also. the chance to hit scum is 25% (2/8), not 22% (2/9). When I stick with a LAL policy I do not intend on being one of those that are eligible.
EBWOP @Sylencia With respect, you are not listening.
From my perspective, there is no greater scum tell than lurking. This is not only because scum tend to lurk, but because the consequences of leaving it until the next day are more dire. On top of this, the percentage chance of lynching that scummy player and him actually being scum, is very low. Scum have control of the first lynch if you base it on active but scummy reads.
While XXXIII may seem an accessible counter example (we were ready to lynch a scum day one, and I intervened), this is not an accurate statistical representation. Day one scum lynch is a dream, and it is as winmore as it gets. Yes the game is easy if you catch a scum day one, but it's not likely to happen and the win-rate is to be had from planning for day two.
Also. the chance to hit scum is 25% (2/8), not 22% (2/9). When I stick with a LAL policy I do not intend on being one of those that are eligible.
Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
I think you misunderstand what the accusation is. Mocsta is proposing that as a scum, I asked a question that I already knew the answer to, in order to imply that I did not know the answer and therefore could not possibly be scum. He thinks I was soft claiming town.
Spag: What is to stop scum from controlling which lurker gets voted? Couldn't you argue that they would actually have more power, since they know which lurker, if any, is the other member of their team, and then just push for whichever other candidates there are?
On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I play for the long game, and think little of the chance of day one scum lynches.
Why do you push for a random lynch on day 1 over something such as no lynch (even though I explained earlier, does not give information)? You want to play for the long game, but killing off random players pushes the game into a faster pace, where we could end up losing on Night 3 if all goes wrong (all mislynches, a night kill per night). Rereading what I just wrote from this sentence, I have a feeling I'm misinterpreting what you're saying here, so feel free to correct me, but it just sounds rather contradictory to me to have these two actions.
On January 03 2013 22:08 Mocsta wrote: [*]cDgCorazon + Show Spoiler +
(1) What do you make of Spaghetticus and his request for scum QT knowledge. If the motives are indeed town in nature, do you think it aligns with the reasoning he presented?
(2) At this stage, TeMiL & OmniEulogy have roughly the same contribution (= zilch). Which candidate do you think we should target for more information? Please lead the discussion as you did today with the opening post
1: I think that it was a huge mistake by Spag requesting the scum QT knowledge. It is really something I wouldn't expect him to do. I don't think we should let his soft town claim fly under the radar, which you have done a good job of bringing things to the forefront. He hasn't presented too much information about it, besides "I was too lazy to read the OP, but it does not make me scum". I think that it was a genuine mistake, but we shouldn't go after him too much for it. I really think that you're being quick to jump on the trigger early on Mocsta. You're creating (with or without trying) a "French Revolution" atmosphere where everyone who makes a slight slip-up is going to get scrutinized for it. In that environment, scum thrive, which makes me really curious why you are trying to keep this environment up.
2: I think we should let TeMiL and OE react to what has been going on, and then pressure them for more information based off of what they have to say.
Just woke up, reading through quickly, thanks for the question Mocsta I'll get to it asap ^^ and anybody else who has left me any questions. Sorry I left early last night I could barely keep my eyes open long enough to post what I did >.<
So a bit late but I'm (GMT-5:00) Eastern Time. I went to bed much earlier than normal though as I'd been up for almost 48 hours.
First things first. Spag has already said he's changing his style from his last game because it got him lynched D1. He's also right that I bandwagoned last game instead of sticking on Cora who was my strongest scum read D1 and ended up getting him lynched. I'm going to try and avoid that kind of play this game.
Spag your questions and calling them laziness doesn't really fly considering how you played last game however I don't really see it as being scummy. Your posts seem good so far and I agree we should try to pressure lurkers but just like XXXIII I don't think we should lynch a lurker D1 unless there is absolutely no other option.
That being said ##FoS: Zerepath The no-lynch is a scummy trait. As this is one of your first games on TL I'm not reading too far into it but it is not a townie mind set at all. You make a good reason for having a no-lynch but again... that is NOT a townie mindset. It's a reason for scum to slip through us and kill somebody N1 while knowing they only have to play it safe and just have to vote no-lynch or join the only wagon. Very hard to find scum like that.
@Mocsta I think Spag seems slightly more suspicious based on his change of play styles but we all knew he would be doing it so I'm trying not to judge him based on that. What I find more incriminating on him so far is that he says he is lazy when he was very active and making larger posts D1 with no mention (I believe) of being lazy.
I think your play looks almost identical to your town play last game Mocsta so I'll give you a weak town read for the moment. The only difference is that Aqua is not here this game so you had to vote yourself, I believe this is also not a move scum would make so early into the game so you've cleared yourself of my suspicion unless you make some posts that make me seriously ask myself WTF.
@Sylencia the chances of lynching scum D1 are indeed very low and I believe that is what Spag was saying. The fact that we almost had one last game should be forgotten because if we DO lynch Scum D1 it means they screwed up and the amount of information we would get would be MASSIVE.
example: if we lynched Cora D1 last game we would have had FC lined up and ready for D2. 2/3 scum gone in 2 days.
While I hope something like this happens we need to scum hunt to get it done.
@Zarepath I'd like to know your thoughts behind how I explained a no-lynch to hurt town and what you think of Mocsta's aggressive behavior so far in the game in leading discussions.
Read through my filter and what I said about no-lynch should be self-explanatory; it's not even in play any more. Yes, it hurts town if you have a scum read on someone, but in the absence of scum reads, lynching a lurker day 1 of newbie mafia is more likely to kill a townie than a mafia, and that's all I was saying.
What strikes me as more odd is the fact that you are so adamant about how this is such a scummy thing to say because it lets lurkers get away scot free, but in place of putting pressure on lurkers (as your policies would/should drive you to do), instead you are putting pressure on an active player who is already contributing. If flushing lurkers is so important, why aren't you asking questions of TemiL (the Hero) and StriX?
As far as Mocsta goes, it would be wonderful if he were mafia because we would have tons of activity of his to analyze. It's allowed him to manipulate discussion, certainly, but he's a small enough likelihood to be mafia that talking about him is low on my priority list right now.
Omni, Strix, TemiL, jangi, and Corazon are the players I need to participate more before we can get more solid scum reads. Most of it now has been active players suspecting other active players because they're the only ones with anything to read and dissect.
On January 04 2013 04:37 zarepath wrote: Omni, Strix, TemiL, jangi, and Corazon are the players I need to participate more before we can get more solid scum reads. Most of it now has been active players suspecting other active players because they're the only ones with anything to read and dissect.
If you want to go accusing people of not participating, make sure you have more than 3 posts of useful information.
@Zarepath what you said about no-lynch is self explanatory. It is a pretty scummy way of thinking. You have not contributed very much to discussion and your only post which says anything is fluff about Spag. The fact that you refuse to comment on how a no-lynch would hurt town also means that you don't want to try and see it as a bad move and will still push for it when the time comes over a lurker lynch.
It seems like a setup for doing nothing D1 so you can just keep saying you don't have a good read on anybody so you vote no-lynch. That isn't going to fly for me and trying to hide behind "lurkers" during the first few hours of daylight for most of us is also extremely defensive play which I believe you said gave you away as mafia in a previous game.
I've felt active, but perhaps this has been in my head -- my filter doesn't seem to suggest I've been inactive. Either way, here is a read that I've had, and I feel like now is a good enough time as any to share it. I want to know what TemiL things about this in particular, as he's been the most inactive so far.
Examine Sylencia's filter. I'd like to know what others think about this.
Sylencia's first post is a non-convicted declaration of his policy on lynching lurkers, which "changes depending upon the flow of the game," and ends with a hope that people don't wait until the last minute to vote or come out with new analysis. In doing so, he adds the caveat "(assuming their info is good)." Already trying to discredit in-depth analysis at the last minute. Mafia would hate last-minute vote changes, as they've already planned on and around another outcome. If one of their own is being targeted, a last-minute vote change wouldn't be in their favor as there wouldn't be enough people around to necessarily make it successful, and when their mafia flips red, it incriminates them as well. Also, his answer to Corazon's "how do mafia mislead us" post is a very vague, general one that basically says "when in the last game they misled us." No concrete new info, very non-committal on everything. Possibly scum.
Next post is a simple time zone declaration.
Next post is involving him in the useless "should blues lie?" debate, with the "duh!" statement of "you can't expect cops to say 'yes' if someone asks them if they are a cop." And that's all he says. Contributes nothing, but went out of his way to do it. Possibly scum.
Next post he bandwagons on calling out Spaghetticus for the QT slip, and puts pressure on TemiL to post something.
Next post he says "the only person we're waiting on now is Strix." This is basically a non-post that can be construed as being productive. Possibly scum.
Continues pressure on Spaghetticus in a passive-aggressive way, then notes Strix's absence again. Possibly scum.
Changes his mind on Spaghetticus "after looking at it again," but doesn't provide his reasoning. Suggests that all of us should be stepping it up, but has done literally zero stepping it up himself. Shifts attention from his noncontributions onto others' noncontributions. Also, he gives a thought about newbies posting more so as to help town out more. A little out of his way and a little sweet for my taste, especially considering the substance of what he's posted. Possibly scum.
Next post he essentially takes credit for Mocsta's post, saying "I was going to say that same thing but I was busy reading! Good one!" This is the equivalent of a "+1". Taking credit for others' contributions without having to contribute anything, and all of these pseudo-contributions are aimed towards Spaghetticus, along with the caveat that "after looking at it again it could have just been a slip," given with no reasoning. So on the flip he has a backdoor. Possibly scum.
Next post he closes that backdoor and uses a non-tell on Spaghetticus to FoS him -- his dramatic quote about lynching lurkers even if there's a good scum tell. Saying you're going to vote out the lurkiest player, especially that dramatically, is hardly a scum tell at all; and if it were, it would be a big, enormous one because it was so emphatic, and would warrant a vote over an FoS if Sylencia really believed it.
Next post is just him saying he won't talk to Spag in real life about it -- unnecessary, flooding the thread with non-contributions.
Final post is entirely on theory and policy, at a time when more than enough names are being tossed around for him to contribute something much more concrete. A waste of effort and discussion, and scummy.
Your activity has been in your head. You should really think before calling me out for not posting.
However, I do think you have fair points on analyzing Sylencia's filter. I would like to see how Syl answers these accusations, and then I will make a read based on those as well.
Are you saying so far that everything Sylencia has done has been scummy or fluff?? You used the word "scum" in analyzing every most of his posts (and the other ones you called fluff).
On January 04 2013 08:17 zarepath wrote: I've felt active, but perhaps this has been in my head -- my filter doesn't seem to suggest I've been inactive.
fluff post on phone.
Get used to thinking your active but not. So much rereading in this game.
Worse thing is when you spend 1hr on a post and before sending hit refresh and find out your 1hr post is not valid anymore..
I did it before with a 4hr case lol. Had to submit it out of principle!!
Either way. U got me thinking. When i get time i am going to post a couple pointers that were passed to me last game.
will post my thoughts on last 12hrs later when i have time.
that post makes me feel a lot better about you Zare. The first bit about information before lynching deadlines comes from last game for sure though. I wouldn't read too much into it because a few times people felt very pressured before a vote because of new information at the last second.
After reading the following something feels off, it might be a language barrier thing but + Show Spoiler +
From jampidampi: Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Something in that bolded area seems off to me. @Jampi could you clarify when you say everybody should check the QT link they get in their PM?
On January 03 2013 23:25 zarepath wrote: In light of Spag's response (while I was writing my post), I'd like to elaborate on my read of Spag, but will await his forthcoming response to Mocsta's Q's. Meanwhile, I am checking a few other filters.
zarepath: I am keen to hear your thoughts on Spaghetticus now that he has voiced his rebuttle.
Please note, he has made 2 posts of defense.
(1) is in relation to my questions to OmniEulogy. and the other (2) is in relation to my questions to Spaghetticus.
I have noticed they all come to the same conclusion; and are hinging upon active play in the thread. I think this is a fine start.
As far as I am concerned, reads such as "leaning towards" can be swung back to null very quickly. Thus, I also appreciate you have not concluded anyone as "Confirmed" town. This is wise play as it is too early to confirm anyones motives (yes, I include myself in this if you were wondering).
@Jampidampi You said you prefer a postcount to post quality ratio skewed in favour of post quality.
Why does your post regarding these three people aid towns scumhunt? What makes this a "quality" post?
The only other person you have identified in your contributions is StriX; the questions are vague at best however.
If StriX remains your primary target, I would like to see you direct more questions his way to develop your profile on him.
If StriX has fallen down the pecking order, I would like to know what has changed your mind.
On January 04 2013 08:17 zarepath wrote: Sylencia's first post is a non-convicted declaration of his policy on lynching lurkers, which "changes depending upon the flow of the game," and ends with a hope that people don't wait until the last minute to vote or come out with new analysis. In doing so, he adds the caveat "(assuming their info is good)." Already trying to discredit in-depth analysis at the last minute. Mafia would hate last-minute vote changes, as they've already planned on and around another outcome. If one of their own is being targeted, a last-minute vote change wouldn't be in their favor as there wouldn't be enough people around to necessarily make it successful, and when their mafia flips red, it incriminates them as well. Also, his answer to Corazon's "how do mafia mislead us" post is a very vague, general one that basically says "when in the last game they misled us." No concrete new info, very non-committal on everything. Possibly scum.
One of two things: This is no different to what I have written in any other opening policy vote. You can check my filters for my other games and you will see something similar written for them. Two: I've had experience from last game about last minute vote changes. They work, because people don't have enough time to digest what is written, and a lot of the time in our newbie games we have a lot of bandwagoners who just aren't completely sure of what to do. If people start shifting over, so will they. Also note I never said that it was the mafia who would start up the last minute vote. Anyone who finds 'new evidence' can easily sway others to join in on their cause, stopping the vote on a potential scum.
Next post is involving him in the useless "should blues lie?" debate, with the "duh!" statement of "you can't expect cops to say 'yes' if someone asks them if they are a cop." And that's all he says. Contributes nothing, but went out of his way to do it. Possibly scum.
That's because there was no discussion stemming from that. Mocsta made a statement, I disagreed with part of what he said, so I made a point referring to the part I thought was off.
Next post he bandwagons on calling out Spaghetticus for the QT slip, and puts pressure on TemiL to post something.
Next post he says "the only person we're waiting on now is Strix." This is basically a non-post that can be construed as being productive. Possibly scum.
Continues pressure on Spaghetticus in a passive-aggressive way, then notes Strix's absence again. Possibly scum.
Changes his mind on Spaghetticus "after looking at it again," but doesn't provide his reasoning. Suggests that all of us should be stepping it up, but has done literally zero stepping it up himself. Shifts attention from his noncontributions onto others' noncontributions. Also, he gives a thought about newbies posting more so as to help town out more. A little out of his way and a little sweet for my taste, especially considering the substance of what he's posted. Possibly scum.
I want to hear what everyone has to say. If they are lurking, then calling them out would/should encourage them to post. There is no reason why we should completely ignore them and let them be on 0 posts, without someone explicitly saying 'get in here, you need to talk to us'.
With regards to my pressure on Spag, I am confused by his words and by his actions. By mentioning conflicting views on certain issues, it means that there's possibly something more behind his game plan. If he's not being honest, it's not benefiting town at all.
Next post he essentially takes credit for Mocsta's post, saying "I was going to say that same thing but I was busy reading! Good one!" This is the equivalent of a "+1". Taking credit for others' contributions without having to contribute anything, and all of these pseudo-contributions are aimed towards Spaghetticus, along with the caveat that "after looking at it again it could have just been a slip," given with no reasoning. So on the flip he has a backdoor. Possibly scum.
Next post he closes that backdoor and uses a non-tell on Spaghetticus to FoS him -- his dramatic quote about lynching lurkers even if there's a good scum tell. Saying you're going to vote out the lurkiest player, especially that dramatically, is hardly a scum tell at all; and if it were, it would be a big, enormous one because it was so emphatic, and would warrant a vote over an FoS if Sylencia really believed it.
During the first two days, I usually do not vote on the first 24 hours. I gave the FoS when I read what Spag said but before he defended anything he said. I give people chances to defend themselves before throwing out votes.
Next post is just him saying he won't talk to Spag in real life about it -- unnecessary, flooding the thread with non-contributions.
Not a relevant post to the game, but the context was about knowing Strix in real life, and was not directed at Spag.
Final post is entirely on theory and policy, at a time when more than enough names are being tossed around for him to contribute something much more concrete. A waste of effort and discussion, and scummy.
I'm still questioning Spag in my last post, based on (as I said before), what I believe to be conflicting statements made by him.
Talkative bunch. Alright... Vote: Zarepath you left us with a nice case on syl, I don't agree with most of it but it was a decent case and he responded to it very well. However you left right after ruining the chance of any immediate conversation that might have stemmed from it. Your position on a no-lynch is a factor in my vote as well, it just isn't a town mindset. Also claiming that a no-lynch vote is not even at play any more is a bad attempt to bury something that is very much a factor in how D1 plays out. Again not a town mindset.
You attack Sylencia largely on ideas that promote strong town behavior like his willingness to lynch lurkers in certain situations but otherwise always going for his scum reads. Almost everything you said about him applies to yourself in terms of posting, in which he is ahead in terms of quality and quantity.
##FoS: Strix lack of everything from you so far. You are a close second to Zare.
@Everybody What do you think about the case made against Syl? How do you feel about Mocsta leading discussion and his vote on Cora? How do you feel Cora responded to the vote. How has he given himself any credibility as town afterwards. (Cora please feel free to answer this one as well)
And lastly in answer to asking if making a contributions list if town vs scum it could be either. We had Shz in NMM XXXIII attempt a similar thing as VT and I've watched mafia players pretend to contribute by doing the same thing in other games. The point to be made aware of is that Mocsta has also lead discussions and is not ONLY making those posts.
Not voting (7): cDgCorazon, jampidampi, zarepath, Spaghetticus, Sylencia, StriX, TeMiL
Currently, Corazon is set to be lynched! 21 hours 20 minutes remaining in day 1. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
Disclaimer: This is a compendium of mafia knowledge available freely. I do not intend this to make me a pro-town read, as anyone can source quotes.
Intent: To pass some of the tools I am aware of, to enable town players to scum hunt more effectively. This is not a guide on how to play, or why we act certain ways. I would be fooling myself if I thought I had that experience. For guides on mafia in general, see the original post, at the bottom is a plethora of newbie guides.
Lastly, if you want to discuss the applicability of this, PM me, as the conversation will certainly not be "Newbie Mafia 34" related. 1. Preface + Show Spoiler +
[Cakepie] There is never a good reason for town to lurk. Only by discussing our reasoning and lines of thought can we hope to find and eradicate scum. Town must never clam up for fear of making mistakes -- 1. it is through discussion that we may hope to correct errors in reasoning; and 2. more importantly, in the event of a mislynch, it would leave trail for others to follow. Hence, a silent townie is a far more useless than a bad townie.
[Promethelax]Town: the main things you have to realize and learn from this game are 1) Never make connection cases before a flip Connections cases pre-flip will always lead you astray. 2) People who say things about how something will affect their image is often scum. 3) A townie's greatest job is not to scum hunt, it is to be obviously town and remove oneself from the hunt of others. See NMM XXX for a really great example of a scum team that was fucked not by strong scum hunting but by a group of townies who all made their mindset and alignment abundantly clear in the thread.
[A General Guide to Playing Mafia] #1: Establish your innocence #2: Read the thread #3: Enable the scum hunt (Start discussion, contribute, pressure etc) #4: Vote
[General] Mafia is a game where it is not uncommon to draw multiple conclusions from the same facts. Make sure your “analysis” is clearly drawn from the facts rather than superficially pointing out irrelevant facts to prop up your theory. Do not fall into confirmation bias by believing so strongly in your conclusions that you twist every possible thing your target says to support your case and ignore evidence that contradicts your conclusion
(C) There is no benefit to calling out early town reads + Show Spoiler +
[Toadestern] See the thing is, ... it is INCREDIBLY hard to tell a townie who's posting a townread apart from a mafia who's posting a townread while both may look like something useful (it's not).
A townread is best kept to yourself, especially early on.
1. There's no reason to tell people what the key to making you think someone is town is. 2. There's no reason to tell mafia (if you're town) who you consider to be a likely townie is. 3. There's no reason to tell anybody why you think someone is town at all, unless said person is about to be lynched.
On top of that, it is incredibly easy for mafia to look like they're doing something by posting townreads. They know they're right on something, they don't have to make up bullshit, which they have to when they're doing scumreads unless they're bussing. They can get in the thread make 4 townreads about someone, mix in 2 mafiabuddies and tell people they're mafia as well and there's almost no way to distinguish that from a townie.
I mean there is, but it's just WAY hader than by looking at peoples mafiareads because again, mafia have to make up some bullshit when doing those, they got confirmation bias and already know they're wrong and all that is making it hard for mafias to talk about mafia-reads. Talking about townreads isn't for them, not at all.
[General Guide to Playing Mafia] Thus, mafia actions can generally be split into two rough categories: A. Survival 1. Hiding/Blending in 2. Posting long but contentless posts 3. Lurking 4. Indecision 5. Not wanting to point fingers 6. Avoiding responsibility 7. Apathy about who is lynched B. Pushing their agenda 1. Promoting confusion 2. Avoiding contributing new ideas 3. Making a big deal about nothing 4. Cherry Picking town mistakes while ignoring contributions
[General] You don't want to lynch the people you call scum. You want the town to lynch the people you call town.
Call out lurkers. They are easy to lynch, but don't try to lynch them until later in the game. Their wagon will provide good escape later if you need it.
Don't underestimate the power of subtle praise. "That's a great point" and "I didn't notice that" or even "I'm sheeping X, who is obv-town" helps building false confidence in townies. This will make the townie think you are town, and if they turn out to be wrong they get the blame and their confidence is shaken. It is generally good to leave the responsibility for the town's lynches on the town *Mocsta: Also known as "White-Knighting"*
[General] Examples of active lurking include posts made only of taunts, excuses for not posting, incoherent gibberish that will lead people to suspect that you do not have the Internet savvy to play Mafia, general bland agreement with whatever is going on, and so forth. For the less couth readers, this is frequently called "bullshitting" in MeatWorld.
This tactic is employed by scum who wish to appear more active than they actually are; either for the scum who has no comment on the current matter but does not want to seem like they are lurking, or for the lurker who wants to paint themselves as slightly better than some other lurker.
The effectiveness of this tactic is quite impressive if players are not specifically looking for it.
It is a common Town mistake to wish for the lynch of people they violently disagree with over the people who post whatever they can to stay on the periphery.
[Aquanim] Personally, I believe there are two very different kinds of tells: a player can do something which is not hard for scum to do or they can do something which is just scummy. Some examples:
Things which are not hard for scum to do: - Talking about policy - Defending other players - Rambling about Mafia theory - Jumping on scumslips - Posting rationally (about things that aren't scumhunting) - Jumping on a wagon etc.
Things which are scummy: - Not voting for their best scumread when lynch is imminent. - Derailing fruitful discussion.
And, for comparison:
Things which are generally hard for scum to do: - Scumhunt. This is NOT the same thing as "put down a vote with some justification". - Convincingly converse with their scumbuddies.
As you can see, the first list has a lot more stuff in it. Everyone does some things that are in the first list, but when they're ONLY doing those that's a problem. The point is, I'd encourage everyone to look at their scumreads and think "are they scummy, or just doing things which are easy for scum to fake"? Similarly, look at your townreads and think "are they scumhunting"? Putting down votes isn't necessarily scumhunting BTW. If they're not scumhunting, they're not particularly town, I don't care how much they've written or how smart/cautious/nice they are.
Oh, and talk to your coaches about scumreads instead of listening to the opinions of some newb.
[General] When digging for information, don’t just ask the direct questions expecting the answer you want to hear. The mafia are obviously not going to want to answer the way you’d like them to. Don’t ask questions hoping for a slip-up; ask questions intending to force the mafia to give up information. Before asking a question, you must have a realistic expectation of what the answer will be.
Many townies ask open-ended or direct questions that have zero chance of bringing out useful information. You must predict the answers to the questions before asking them in order to avoid pointless questions. Don’t repetitively ask questions unless you know you can accurately process the information you receive.
[Aquanim]Mafia start with more information than town. It is in the Mafia's best interest to keep town from finding information. Conversely, it is in the Town players' best interests for the Town to gain information.
Therefore, Townie players:
Do not have any problems with giving information to the town
Try to pressure/ask questions/etc. of other players which will reveal more information
By comparison, Scum players:
Do not want to reveal information to the town
Do not want to ask questions of other players which may reveal information
Scum players may in fact be forced to reveal some information so as to appear townie. They may ask other players questions to appear townie. However, the end goal of a Scum player is NOT to look townie, it is to deny town the information they need to lynch correctly. As such, they will reveal as little information as possible, and their questions are unlikely to have a greater and unifying purpose.
One case in particular I'll mention: everyone is obliged to justify their votes, scum or not. Unless the explanation is spectacularly good or bad, the presence of any reasoning behind a vote is null for me generally.
So, I've looked at everybody's filters with the following two questions in mind:
Is this person willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.?
Is this person trying to obtain information from other players?
On January 04 2013 12:32 OmniEulogy wrote: How do you feel about Mocsta leading discussion and his vote on Cora? How do you feel Cora responded to the vote. How has he given himself any credibility as town afterwards. (Cora please feel free to answer this one as well)
I think Cora responded pretty appropriately with regards to the sudden vote against him early on. It's fair play to base some accusations off previous behaviours, but I think Mocsta was definitely getting ahead of himself doing it when Cora had barely posted anything yet.
Intent: Discussion is quite slow at the moment. I have addressed questions to each participant to promote further conversation, whether directly to myself, or to others.
Please take the time and respond to these accordingly.
If you have qualms replying to my content, please notify myself and the rest of town, why you deem this unnecessary.
(1) Do you think your case on zarepath is exclusive of confirmation bias towards mafia? Remember, OrangeRemi voted "no-lynch" day 1, and he was a bluer role. I urge you to have a re-think and let us know if you can explain zarepath motives from a town perspective. .
(1) I would like if you could answer the new questions I addressed to you: @Jampidampi You said you prefer a postcount to post quality ratio skewed in favour of post quality.
Why does your post regarding these three people aid towns scumhunt? What makes this a "quality" post?
The only other person you have identified in your contributions is StriX; the questions are vague at best however.
If StriX remains your primary target, I would like to see you direct more questions his way to develop your profile on him.
If StriX has fallen down the pecking order, I would like to know what has changed your mind.
(2) What is your take on the Sylencia/zarepath exchange of words (and vote(s))?
(1) Which you rather choose to lynch. An active participant with a scummy vibe; or a participant who is low count poster, but each post contains a vote for someone?
(1) Which you rather choose to lynch. An active participant with a scummy vibe; or a participant who is low count poster, but each post contains a vote for someone?
(2) StriX post style reminds me a bit of "Threesr". How do you think StriX should be approached to develop his story further? Please lead the discussion.
(1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
(2) You said zarepath is your lead suspect. With the information zarepath has presented since Session 2. What are your revised thoughts? If still a target, I suggest you demonstrate your conviction with a vote; otherwise, begin to identify alternative candidates.
On January 04 2013 13:45 cDgCorazon wrote: Mocsta, I'm really curious. Why are you still voting for me?
If you have an actual reason to vote for me besides being paranoid of my XXXIII play, I would love to hear them.
Mate, your scum play impressed me Newbie 33, BUT... this game, you are starting to disapoint.
Read between the lines; Spag figured it out...
Fact is.. look at what I have written today, do you think that takes 5min? I haven't had an opportunity to update my case profiles for the Day 1 Lynch.
I aim to have this ready by midnight (8hrs from lynch).. it is Friday night after all.
On January 04 2013 13:50 Mocsta wrote: Fact is.. look at what I have written today, do you think that takes 5min? I haven't had an opportunity to update my case profiles for the Day 1 Lynch.
Well, I took your continuous vote (almost 24 hours) to mean that I had not satisfied your answers, and I just wanted to know why you kept your vote on me instead of un-voting.
On January 04 2013 13:50 cDgCorazon wrote: Also @Mocsta:
What do you think of Zarepath's attack on Syl, and Syl's defense?
Im not trying to be a prick here..however, I am trying to follow your advice.
*i.e. wait for feedback from others who have not been actively participating*
In essence, I DO have firm thoughts on what happened. My revised questions to others reflects my opinion on the matter (in a subtle manner).
I will say one more thing though.. I am not liking people instantly concurring with others ideas.... at least try to be creative and add a fresh perspective.
Ironically, this applies to both zarepath and Sylencia.
from a town perspective I could see it being a misguided attempt to save a town lurker from getting lynched. However just because as you said Orange did it and was blue, it doesn't make it a good play. Furthermore we also had scum in NMM XXXIII try to support a no-lynch D1 in their opening posts.
Do you have a read on anybody at the moment Mocsta?
On January 04 2013 13:50 Mocsta wrote: Fact is.. look at what I have written today, do you think that takes 5min? I haven't had an opportunity to update my case profiles for the Day 1 Lynch.
Well, I took your continuous vote (almost 24 hours) to mean that I had not satisfied your answers, and I just wanted to know why you kept your vote on me instead of un-voting.
Fair comment.
##Unvote: cDgCorazon
As mentioned prior, I will update my Day1 Vote candidate later tonight.
In the meantime, this is theory crafting. But I wouldnt mind your feedback, as the post contribution is SO low.. im almost considering trying to push for below.
There are 9 members.. I know I am town, that gives me a choice of 8 to lynch. (1/8 = 12.5%)
I think I have 2 or 3 good enough town reads.. that gives me a 1/5 chance (20%).. Do you think that 20% chance is good enough to warrant a random lynch a lurker vote?
We know from practice, that the outspoken guys, are typically town (who are not afraid to voice their opinion).. Theres too many 1 page filters, even for this stage of the game.
At this point I'd consider voting for Strix followed by Jampi and then TeMiL in that order. I know Temil said something about work hours but I'd really like to see his thoughts on current matters before even considering to vote for him. Strix does vaguely give off that "Threesr" feeling but not even half as bad as the real thing. He's my #2 at the moment.
I think we can cut down on the possibilities a bit more before anybody really needs to throw out a vote if they don't think they have a read at all.
Mocsta(1) Do you think your case on zarepath is exclusive of confirmation bias towards mafia? Remember, OrangeRemi voted "no-lynch" day 1, and he was a bluer role. I urge you to have a re-think and let us know if you can explain zarepath motives from a town perspective. .
On January 04 2013 13:58 OmniEulogy wrote: (1)from a town perspective I could see it being a misguided attempt to save a town lurker from getting lynched. However just because as you said Orange did it and was blue, it doesn't make it a good play. Furthermore we also had scum in NMM XXXIII try to support a no-lynch D1 in their opening posts.
(2)Do you have a read on anybody at the moment Mocsta?
(2) Read my reply to cDgCorazon 1 to 2 posts above...
(1) I don't understand what you are saying. zarepath accused sylencia... how is this a misguided attempt? who is the town lurker you are referring to?
Im not saying no-vote is a good play, im saying it doesnt categorise a player as scum OR town. So I suggest dropping it altogether.
Personally Im not against a no-vote, depending on the situation (and I dont think our situation warrants a no-vote).
Perhaps I have misinterpreted your comments, but I would appreciate if you could collect your thoughts in a a more cohesive manner.
When I say misguided attempt, I mean in the case of a no-lynch vs Lurker lynch. nothing to do about Sylencia or the case he made against him. If he voted for Sylencia it wouldn't be a no-lynch vote in the first place.
EBWOP: I also wouldn't be against him voting for Syl if thats what his scum read is. The non-commitment and fear of putting himself out there even after making a decent case makes him the scummiest player in the game at the moment in my eyes.
(1) Which you rather choose to lynch. An active participant with a scummy vibe; or a participant who is low count poster, but each post contains a vote for someone?
(2) StriX post style reminds me a bit of "Threesr". How do you think StriX should be approached to develop his story further? Please lead the discussion.
1) Your question is a very vague situation, which has the potential to be interpreted multiple ways. It needs further definition. Does the low count poster provide reasoning to each vote? Is he bandwagoning with each vote? What is the active participant doing that gives off a scummy vibe? The question you gave doesn't have an answer that cannot be interpreted many ways by different people.
2) Strix is a highly analytical player, but he is the type who prefers the 'grand reveal' style of play. He analyses posts well, and can make a compelling case - however this is all done with the rest in the dark until the time he posts. Having experience playing with him outside of TL, that is the way I have seen him play. One thing that differentiates him from threesr though is the fact he doesn't flame everyone and call them bad. Calls himself god sometimes, but no flames.
On January 04 2013 14:16 OmniEulogy wrote: The non-commitment and fear of putting himself out there even after making a decent case makes him the scummiest player in the game at the moment in my eyes.
Mocsta: I would rather lynch an active participant with a scummy vibe than a low-count poster with only votes for posts.
Omni: I left right after because of RL issues. I know that's not ideal, but I'd been hawking the thread all day and I had stuff to do.
I still say that hypothetically mentioning a no-lynch over a blind LAL is the huge scum tell that you think it is, Omni. Mafia would rather have a lynch on a non-mafia lurker than a no-lynch, and mafia can control whether or not they lurk.
I still have an #FoS on Sylencia; he's answered my case at each point, but it doesn't change the tone and vibe of all of his posts put together for the first 24 hours.
Well Moc, since you are asking for some fresh new discussion, I might as well give it to you.
Right now, I'm suspicious of Jampi, Zare, StriX, and TaMiL (the Hero).
Jampi: I think your focus is in the wrong place right now. Most of your posts have been about reading past Mafia games and trying to understand everyone's meta. While it helps a little bit, you need to get your head back into this game. The chances of everyone having the same roles as their first games (or first two, because the max is 3 games for NMM) is not very good. I would like to see some analysis of what has happened in this game, and not what happened in other games. For this reason, your contribution to the town in my eyes is 0. You need to step it up if you want to prove to us that you are town.
Zare: I know OE has touched on this subject already, but I would like to add my opinion. To me Zare, I can forgive you for saying that a no-lynch is acceptable when it really is not. I can put that up to newness and lack of knowledge. However, what I can't forgive you for is accusing me of not being a contributor. My filter is at least 5-6 posts longer than yours, yet you come out and say that I haven't been contributing. You really need to check your facts before you throw out silly accusations like that. While you had some fair points on Syl, saying "possibly scum" after every point is just hammering him too much. It's too early in the game to be tunneling one person so much. Leave your options open, and your accusations a bit less harsh.
StriX/TaMiL: Simply put, the grace period for lurkers is over. You two need to start posting and joining the discussion, because the lurking is thinning my patience. If you don't come under fire from me, you'll come under fire from others (especially Spag who has stated he has 0 tolerance for lurking).
(1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
(2) You said zarepath is your lead suspect. With the information zarepath has presented since Session 2. What are your revised thoughts? If still a target, I suggest you demonstrate your conviction with a vote; otherwise, begin to identify alternative candidates.
1. I'm starting to yes. 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
@Zare fair enough I know it happens. I also agree that the mafia would rather have us lynch ourselves and get an even larger advantage. It happens in most games D1 but they also tend to be the ones who say a no-lynch is fine with them early on. Ignoring that aspect of why I voted for you though because as you say its hypothetical and you did make a case on somebody else I'm going to keep my vote on you for the time being.
On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: p.s. Anyone want to explain Threesr to me?
Threesr was in the last game. He was a weak town player who just sat around and lurked. He made a bunch of sarcastic remarks to anyone who ever accused him. He was modkilled Day 2 for not voting.
@Strix Threesr has been modkilled two games in a row, made a bunch of 1 line comments and liked to fight with anybody who was unfortunate enough to post at the same time he did (and as a hard core lurker he rarely posted)
Sylencia: No, I'm pretty sure he's referring to me.
Omni: I don't know what "fear of putting himself out there" you're talking about. I went out of my way to make a case on an active player that nobody else was even talking about, analyzed his entire filter, and you even admit that it's a good case. I don't see how I am not putting myself out there here. All you yourself have done in your case against me is harp on a single line that isn't relevant (or even scummy imo; but apparently that is a policy debate), and say that I have a fear of putting myself out there. That's not a case; that's a soft read based off of confirmation bias and a willingness to ignore all my positive contributions.
Corazon: Most of your filter was before-game banter, and at the time I asked you to participate more, most of what you had posted was you essentially saying that you had null reads on everyone.
Additionally, how is asking someone to participate more scummy? That is decidedly pro-town behavior, and I can understand being offended by it when you feel you've been actively contributing, but I simply wanted to hear more from you and threw you in the list.
I'm not ignoring your contribution at all. Sylencia's defense was enough for me to keep him off my scum list for now that's all. You can make a case like that and it doesn't really put you into the spotlight at all. If we all voted for him and he flipped town THEN it would. But you yourself didn't even vote for him. How is not even voting for somebody and just calling everything they have done scummy dangerous for you in any way? It's a good way to start conversation on a target, and you got him to answer but it's not putting yourself out there in any way.
@OmniEulogy by the way - if you reread I was the first to call out zarepath on his no-lynch so it's amusing to me that you use it as an argument then call me out for contributing nothing.
@StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else.
On January 04 2013 14:40 StriX wrote: @cDGCorazon I shouldn't be grouped with TeMil.
On the contrary, I think you should. Most of your posts have been 1-2 lines. While the quantity of posts have been there, the quality certainly has not.
On January 04 2013 14:19 zarepath wrote: (1) Mocsta: I would rather lynch an active participant with a scummy vibe than a low-count poster with only votes for posts.
(2) I still say that hypothetically mentioning a no-lynch over a blind LAL is the huge scum tell that you think it is, Omni. Mafia would rather have a lynch on a non-mafia lurker than a no-lynch, and mafia can control whether or not they lurk.
@zarepath (1) The beauty of this game is, everyone has the potential to vote for who they want. It is in their control. . You are hoping others follow that vote however.
(Personally)I prefer Sylencia response to (1), the question indeed was vague; it was definitely not discrete, so many variables were missing [intentionally]
You have somehow linked all the pieces together however, to formulate a discrete conclusion.
If I look at a town perspective: Perhaps you are prejudiced in opinion. Ruling your opinion a "matter of fact" opposed to any form of tell or read. Perhaps you are a hot head, that posts ab-lib (possibly regretting the post later)... a trait surely I of all people can understand.
If I consider a mafia perspective: Who cares who is voted, as long as its not mafia. That leads to a propensity to recklessly formulate opinions, and essentially make discrete conclusions.
So we go back to.. zarepath, what is you motivation? If (/When) I go through your filter;
Do you think I will find town or scum motivations? Considering you are hawking the thread always, I am keen to hear your thoughts before I progress with this further
On January 04 2013 14:36 zarepath wrote: Corazon: Most of your filter was before-game banter, and at the time I asked you to participate more, most of what you had posted was you essentially saying that you had null reads on everyone.
Additionally, how is asking someone to participate more scummy? That is decidedly pro-town behavior, and I can understand being offended by it when you feel you've been actively contributing, but I simply wanted to hear more from you and threw you in the list.
Well, you need to pay attention to the game to figure out why I had null reads. I was the first one to have a vote cast against them, so I needed to defend myself. If I were to start calling people out instead of defending myself, it would be a ridiculous scumtell (not to mention being rude. If someone takes the time to make a case against you, then you should have the courtesy to defend yourself, no matter how weak).
The thing is, you need to check your facts. Technically, you told a lie there and said I had not contributed, when I clearly have contributed more than you. I just needed to contribute in a different way than you had to because of the early vote. I will not have an accusation made against me that is false.
On January 04 2013 14:36 zarepath wrote: Corazon: Most of your filter was before-game banter, and at the time I asked you to participate more, most of what you had posted was you essentially saying that you had null reads on everyone.
Additionally, how is asking someone to participate more scummy? That is decidedly pro-town behavior, and I can understand being offended by it when you feel you've been actively contributing, but I simply wanted to hear more from you and threw you in the list.
Well, you need to pay attention to the game to figure out why I had null reads. I was the first one to have a vote cast against them, so I needed to defend myself. If I were to start calling people out instead of defending myself, it would be a ridiculous scumtell (not to mention being rude. If someone takes the time to make a case against you, then you should have the courtesy to defend yourself, no matter how weak).
The thing is, you need to check your facts. Technically, you told a lie there and said I had not contributed, when I clearly have contributed more than you. I just needed to contribute in a different way than you had to because of the early vote. I will not have an accusation made against me that is false.
Gentleman.. if I may step in.
This is starting to dilute the thread on a "he-said/she-sad" (not that any of you are she's )
I see no fault with zarepath asking for contributions from anyone (including myself). I can also understand why cDgCorazon is acting this way. Especially with the duration of my vote.
I think, shake hands, and move on. There is a lot of decent content and relationships to read through on pages 14-15.
Lets not dilute those reads due to a "he-said/she-said".
(1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
Not really satisfied with my answer to this, however, the question does invite fluff. Reasoning on why someone is good seems to help mafia tbh.
cDgCorazon should be good - more info needed
On January 03 2013 10:36 cDgCorazon wrote: 2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
I'll save this answer for after more people have discussed it.
perhaps we should discuss this? Mocsta puts it pretty much in my words. Lurking mafia is easy to do and likely to work.
Mocsta very easy to call good so we should be on our toes. I've seen some reasoning along the lines of he's playing like the townie he played last game. Dangerous assumption as a good mafia would play the same way would they not? If he's not bad I feel like he's in danger of being killed night as he's very valuable to the town leading the discussion mostly.
OmniEulogy Perhaps a bit jumpy, however, we really don't have much to go on with one day worth of info.
jampidampi Very suspicious of me still. Not sure why. Perhaps due to the leading nature of Mocsta's question?
zarepath not sure on your read about sylencia as he did call me out due to knowing me. I feel the whole town is a bit eager to call people out on fluff day one when really that's kind of what day1 usually is - for me anyway.
Spaghetticus Didn't even catch that QT 'read' until was pointed out. It's a bit ... of overanalysing tbh. Still innocent until proven guilty for me.
On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: (1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
(2) You said zarepath is your lead suspect. With the information zarepath has presented since Session 2. What are your revised thoughts? If still a target, I suggest you demonstrate your conviction with a vote; otherwise, begin to identify alternative candidates.
1. I'm starting to yes. 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. ...
##Vote TeMil
@StriX
Town still needs more than you. Sylencia is a good friend to you, and gave a moving resume. Even I want to hire you.. but I and thus town, need more meaningful contribution.
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Why have you voted TeMiL? Please reference the following in your answering: (A)
(1) [Mocsta]You mention keeping it simple, Lynch the liars + lurkers. Please expand on this. Would you chose liars/lurkers over top scum read?
1. Doesn't seem logical to do that so no. As you can deal with a lying or lurking town with less punishment than .5?-1 death/night.
and (B) I also find it convenient my question to you..
(3)[Mocsta] Your post contribution currently is on par with TeMiL and zarepath. If we are you Lynch all lurkers, which of (TeMiL, zarepath, StriX) shall town vote to lynch? Please lead the scum hunt with your chosen candidate.
The only people you have referenced in your contributions are TeMiL and zarepath (names I fed you in questions).
Why would this be the case? Do you see any contradictions in tale?
I noted as well TeMiL didnt answer the questions.. you haven't answered all either...I still want to know..
On January 03 2013 22:47 StriX wrote: (2) [Mocsta] thus, how do you propose to support town play?
In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all.
StriX, I would prefer that you would take 2 or 3 of your scum reads and pursue them farther. This would be a lot more helpful than voting for a lurker right now. If you feel like no one has said anything scummy by the time the voting deadline comes around, then go ahead and vote for TeMiL. For now, you should note his lurkiness to the town and pursue other reads.
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
I guess we have different definitions of top scum reads as I really don't feel supporting no lynch is one. Perhaps in a high level (it'd probably be a meta play there actually) game but not in newbie mafia.
I guess it's easier to spot things when people point them out to you. Honestly forgot you're the one who gave me the names and neglected to check out the others in more detail. Will now be aware of the leading nature of your questions towards myself.
I think voting a lurker should wait until Day 2. It should only be used on Day 1 if you truly do not have any other reads.
I understand that you are overcompensating for your last game of Mafia. Trust me, TeMiL is not going to fly under the radar if he lurks. I'm all for hammering him for it on D2 if it doesn't change.
For now, I think we should look away from TeMiL, and turn our focus elsewhere.
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
I guess we have different definitions of top scum reads as I really don't feel supporting no lynch is one. Perhaps in a high level (it'd probably be a meta play there actually) game but not in newbie mafia.
I guess it's easier to spot things when people point them out to you. Honestly forgot you're the one who gave me the names and neglected to check out the others in more detail. Will now be aware of the leading nature of your questions towards myself.
StriX,I am having trouble digesting what you have written above.
Do you think you have addressed my questions? I don't... In fact, I don't know why you have used specific phrasing in your answers, that I think are unrelated to the question-at-hand. e.g. self-fulfilling prophecy....
As I don't think you have answered my question; so I request that
you re-write what you wanted to say in a more cohesive manner.
Lastly, Im not calling you out on this, Im giving a tip in general, when you start a sentence with "honestly" the implication is that the entire conversation prior may not have contained your "honest" thoughts...Same goes with (To be honest.. blah blah blah)...Im not calling you out, because that also usually associated with body language, and obviously I cant see you.
On January 04 2013 08:38 OmniEulogy wrote: After reading the following something feels off, it might be a language barrier thing but + Show Spoiler +
From jampidampi: Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Something in that bolded area seems off to me. @Jampi could you clarify when you say everybody should check the QT link they get in their PM?
The OP provided the role PMs for each role. In the scum role PMs there is a direct link to the scum QT. Anyone rational would at least check out the link and post there once to get commucating between his scumpartner going. After all, mafias greatests strength is their information and the possibility of communication.
(1) I would like if you could answer the new questions I addressed to you: @Jampidampi You said you prefer a postcount to post quality ratio skewed in favour of post quality.
Why does your post regarding these three people aid towns scumhunt? What makes this a "quality" post?
The only other person you have identified in your contributions is StriX; the questions are vague at best however.
If StriX remains your primary target, I would like to see you direct more questions his way to develop your profile on him.
If StriX has fallen down the pecking order, I would like to know what has changed your mind.
(2) What is your take on the Sylencia/zarepath exchange of words (and vote(s))?
It was a post of me sharing my weak town reads. I asked the coaches if I should share weak reads, but since they were slow to answear and I was impatient, I went ahead and posted it (they said I shouldn't share weak town reads). It may help others when considering who to scumhunt. I do agree that the post lacks some quality.
I will write my suspicions of/questions to StriX in a separate post to make it more clear.
Zarepath may just have a little bit of tunnel vision. It's good that he's bringing those points up, but I'm statisfied with the answears Sylencia gave.
(1) You mention keeping it simple, Lynch the liars + lurkers. Please expand on this. Would you chose liars/lurkers over top scum read?
(2) Noone is asking you to support the summary idea; thus, how do you propose to support town play?
(3) Your post contribution currently is on par with TeMiL and zarepath. If we are you Lynch all lurkers, which of (TeMiL, zarepath, StriX) shall town vote to lynch? Please lead the scum hunt with your chosen candidate.
1. Doesn't seem logical to do that so no. As you can deal with a lying or lurking town with less punishment than .5?-1 death/night.
A bare minimun response to the question.
2. No ideas yet honestly - still getting the hang of who is who.
Seems like coming up with a excuse not to contribute.
3. Zarepath at the moment - mainly due to his policy on no lynch. Town environment can be improved and giving a lynch which could potentially be a free scum kill away seems too steep a price to pay.
Accusing someone based on a nolynch policy is an easy thing to do.
Next three posts are him answearing my questions about the game he played earlier. After that he takes back his suspicions of zarepath stating that
(1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
(2) You said zarepath is your lead suspect. With the information zarepath has presented since Session 2. What are your revised thoughts? If still a target, I suggest you demonstrate your conviction with a vote; otherwise, begin to identify alternative candidates.
1. I'm starting to yes.
Again, bare minimum response.
2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
Targetting the easiest player to target: a lyrker with no contrinutions.
After that he claims to have contributed with an argument that he later took back.
Then he posts his reads/views on everyone without actually giving any reasonings.
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
I guess we have different definitions of top scum reads as I really don't feel supporting no lynch is one. Perhaps in a high level (it'd probably be a meta play there actually) game but not in newbie mafia.
Defends letting go of zarepaths pressure with a different playstyle.
I guess it's easier to spot things when people point them out to you. Honestly forgot you're the one who gave me the names and neglected to check out the others in more detail. Will now be aware of the leading nature of your questions towards myself.
Acknowledges that so far all his actions have been because Mocsta requested him to act.
In his last post he defends his vote on TeMiL with some previous game he played.
Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy. ##Vote StriX
On January 04 2013 13:56 Mocsta wrote: In essence, I DO have firm thoughts on what happened. My revised questions to others reflects my opinion on the matter (in a subtle manner).
If we have the courtesy of answering your questions straight, could you do us a favour and answer our questions straight as well? Otherwise we're just feeding you information while we get nothing back - or it's left up to us to interpret. Not what you want, especially when it can be twisted so easily.
On January 04 2013 14:36 zarepath wrote: Additionally, how is asking someone to participate more scummy? That is decidedly pro-town behavior
Half the points you made on me were about me trying to get people to participate. It was followed each time with "Possibly scummy." What?
On January 04 2013 14:19 zarepath wrote: I still have an #FoS on Sylencia; he's answered my case at each point, but it doesn't change the tone and vibe of all of his posts put together for the first 24 hours.
You gave 5-6 points as to why I was potentially scummy - one of them included the fact that I 'didn't believe' in my own read, so I didn't vote Spag. Yet you do exactly the same thing and just give an FoS on me rather than voting me outright. Your tendency to act against what you say about others really grinds me, and it's a fairly clear tell when you've done it multiple times today.
On January 04 2013 19:18 Sylencia wrote: Mocsta- If we have the courtesy of answering your questions straight, could you do us a favour and answer our questions straight as well? Otherwise we're just feeding you information while we get nothing back - or it's left up to us to interpret. Not what you want, especially when it can be twisted so easily.
zarepath- You gave 5-6 points as to why I was potentially scummy - one of them included the fact that I 'didn't believe' in my own read, so I didn't vote Spag. Yet you do exactly the same thing and just give an FoS on me rather than voting me outright. Your tendency to act against what you say about others really grinds me, and it's a fairly clear tell when you've done it multiple times today.
Because I would like you to owe me a favour... I am going to respond to your post now As mentioned Mocsta Post I am heading out soon, my position hasnt changed from that post.
(1) Im disapointed you think the information is one-way. The information goes to all readers of the thread, this is an interesting perspective you have? (2) A lot of people in the thread are saying "I agree with Mocsta".. I think this implies I need to take a step back, and let people think for themselves. Do you not agree? Obviously not.. because the quote you put in your response, actually takes out the part I just said about taking a step back....."See here for post" Once again.. interesting perspective Sylencia....
P.S. Feel free to twist my words the way you want It takes two to tango, and I am more than willing to accept your offer to dance
This is heading towards OMGUS very quickly. (1) In general to both, I am not a fan of ##FoS... what does it actually achieve? (OoOoO I am shaking in my boots because of a FoS) (2) I need to re-read your filter Sylencia.. but my opinion of zarepath is that he is not a threat. When I read his filter, I am currently interpretting his motives as town aligned. [Note.. I am not establishing him as a town read... this would go against what I was advising prior] (3) I am not going bother commenting on this situation in general... I think there are higher priority targets for Day 1 lynch; If you want to continue with zarepath as your vote, go ahead, its your decision. I ask that you re-evaluate his filter, do you see town motivations? If so, I suggest you start thinking of an alternative person to scum hunt.
On January 04 2013 08:38 OmniEulogy wrote: After reading the following something feels off, it might be a language barrier thing but + Show Spoiler +
From jampidampi: Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Something in that bolded area seems off to me. @Jampi could you clarify when you say everybody should check the QT link they get in their PM?
The OP provided the role PMs for each role. In the scum role PMs there is a direct link to the scum QT. Anyone rational would at least check out the link and post there once to get commucating between his scumpartner going. After all, mafias greatests strength is their information and the possibility of communication.
(1) I would like if you could answer the new questions I addressed to you: @Jampidampi You said you prefer a postcount to post quality ratio skewed in favour of post quality.
Why does your post regarding these three people aid towns scumhunt? What makes this a "quality" post?
The only other person you have identified in your contributions is StriX; the questions are vague at best however.
If StriX remains your primary target, I would like to see you direct more questions his way to develop your profile on him.
If StriX has fallen down the pecking order, I would like to know what has changed your mind.
(2) What is your take on the Sylencia/zarepath exchange of words (and vote(s))?
It was a post of me sharing my weak town reads. I asked the coaches if I should share weak reads, but since they were slow to answear and I was impatient, I went ahead and posted it (they said I shouldn't share weak town reads). It may help others when considering who to scumhunt. I do agree that the post lacks some quality.
I will write my suspicions of/questions to StriX in a separate post to make it more clear.
Zarepath may just have a little bit of tunnel vision. It's good that he's bringing those points up, but I'm statisfied with the answears Sylencia gave.
Is the following question allowed?
Do not respond until I have an answer from mod.
Jampi. You claim to have talked to a coach that was not quick to respond. Tell me when you posted and when the response came.
I am going to McDonalds to take advantage of their air-con, it is the hottest day ever recorded where I live, I have glanced over the thread up until now but have not taken notes. When I return I will make some more committed action. If this play is allowed it could be game breaking. If you are town you have nothing to fear so long as the mod allows a response.
On January 04 2013 19:18 Sylencia wrote: Mocsta- If we have the courtesy of answering your questions straight, could you do us a favour and answer our questions straight as well? Otherwise we're just feeding you information while we get nothing back - or it's left up to us to interpret. Not what you want, especially when it can be twisted so easily.
zarepath- You gave 5-6 points as to why I was potentially scummy - one of them included the fact that I 'didn't believe' in my own read, so I didn't vote Spag. Yet you do exactly the same thing and just give an FoS on me rather than voting me outright. Your tendency to act against what you say about others really grinds me, and it's a fairly clear tell when you've done it multiple times today.
Because I would like you to owe me a favour... I am going to respond to your post now As mentioned Mocsta Post I am heading out soon, my position hasnt changed from that post.
(1) Im disapointed you think the information is one-way. The information goes to all readers of the thread, this is an interesting perspective you have? (2) A lot of people in the thread are saying "I agree with Mocsta".. I think this implies I need to take a step back, and let people think for themselves. Do you not agree? Obviously not.. because the quote you put in your response, actually takes out the part I just said about taking a step back....."See here for post" Once again.. interesting perspective Sylencia....
P.S. Feel free to twist my words the way you want It takes two to tango, and I am more than willing to accept your offer to dance
This is heading towards OMGUS very quickly. (1) In general to both, I am not a fan of ##FoS... what does it actually achieve? (OoOoO I am shaking in my boots because of a FoS) (2) I need to re-read your filter Sylencia.. but my opinion of zarepath is that he is not a threat. When I read his filter, I am currently interpretting his motives as town aligned. [Note.. I am not establishing him as a town read... this would go against what I was advising prior] (3) I am not going bother commenting on this situation in general... I think there are higher priority targets for Day 1 lynch; If you want to continue with zarepath as your vote, go ahead, its your decision. I ask that you re-evaluate his filter, do you see town motivations? If so, I suggest you start thinking of an alternative person to scum hunt.
Regarding your posts, it's just the way you answered that question specifically though, where you decided to say you already had - but subtly, that I didn't like. Maybe I read the wrong post, looking for what you meant (the one with all the questions) but I didn't seem to quite understand your view on that issue.
In regards to taking a step back and letting others get stuff in, of course, go ahead, it was just the issue of not knowing where you stood there that agitated me.
For the issue with zarepath, I'll wait and see where it leads from here, but at the moment I'm sticking on my vote.
On January 04 2013 19:59 Spaghetticus wrote: Is the following question allowed?
Do not respond until I have an answer from mod.
Jampi. You claim to have talked to a coach that was not quick to respond. Tell me when you posted and when the response came.
I am going to McDonalds to take advantage of their air-con, it is the hottest day ever recorded where I live, I have glanced over the thread up until now but have not taken notes. When I return I will make some more committed action. If this play is allowed it could be game breaking. If you are town you have nothing to fear so long as the mod allows a response.
IIRC from NMM XXXII, we were told not to talk about talking to coaches.
okay let's take this one by one @Mocsta It was my idea of a 'play'. Accepting the advantage if you wish a starcraft analogy. (The better player wins in the long term so delaying the game is of no harm as long as you can hold the advantage) It obviously defeats the purpose if I reveal the play but at this point transparency and proving my innocence seem to be the priority. Self-fulfilling prophecy was me explaining a potential weakness in pressuring someone versus observing them.
TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker.
I guess it's easier to spot things when people point them out to you. Honestly forgot you're the one who gave me the names and neglected to check out the others in more detail. Will now be aware of the leading nature of your questions towards myself.
in response to Why are you only analysing the names fed to you? Basically I was saying sometimes you forget who suggested the idea to you to check someone out as you are the one studying all their posts etc., Possible to even think you came up with it all by yourself. Next statement is a bit generic I guess but it is true. Sharpening your scope limits your vision. Last was a poke at the leading nature of your questions and also a realisation that I'm not immune to being led. Seems like a very good explanation for the situation I'm in with jampidampi.
On January 03 2013 22:47 StriX wrote: (2) [Mocsta] thus, how do you propose to support town play?
At this point transparent observations are my strength. Aggression for me is fun and all but very often seems to lead to situations we have with Sylencia v Zarepath. Reactionary play versus aggressive pressure seems to be a bit of an issue here. I feel like most of you guys are more a fan of the latter. I have no objections being lynched for playstyle reasons but diversification of strategy would definitely give the mafia a harder time (good cop bad cop).
Not voting (5): cDgCorazon, zarepath, Spaghetticus, TeMiL, Mocsta
Currently, zarepath is set to be lynched! 12 hours 20 minutes remaining in day 1. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
Very often when set on something everything your target says seems to confirm your theory - confirmation bias if you will. Careful how you read my responses and try to test both sides and come up with your conclusion.
-In his first post he is only agreeing with others and repeating what others already said about the summary plan. I find it ridiculous that one would come to the table disagreeing with an established meta of 5 others. These guys have obviously done work and to not be patient and see where it goes is unscientific and a little overconfident.
I bring not much to the table due to being an observer. Not much going on so not much to report or it's an easy observation so I'm just repeating what has been said. Give me some time before I get going.
A bare minimun response to the question.
Vigourous writing is concise as they say. As mentioned by Mocsta liars often overemphasize. Thus it can be dangerous to conclude longer = more truthful.
Accusing someone based on a nolynch policy is an easy thing to do.
Easy isn't necessarily bad. I haven't been resting and plan to follow the plan I discussed with cDgCorazon.
After that he takes back his suspicions of zarepath stating that Rationalizing no-lynch is nothing by itself. even though most would agree it's a scummy move
As explained above it was a ploy. If zarepath really does redeem himself he will see in the votes.
Let me explain why my argument for not giving reasons for calling someone good. Tells may very be based on them being a blue role and calling them out and drawing attention is risky. They might very well be flying so well under the radar that the mafia don't realise. Another thing is your reads become useless once posted. Mafia may subtly start acting like your idea VT and calling out someone on their innocent actions may make them conscious of it and hence reinforce it. In the end you have a town which is identical - and ideal environment for the mafia to blend in. Diversification is what I'm campaigning for.
I'm still reading and writing, but upon reading the vote update I thought it best to give my vote. This vote is a pressure vote but is not to be taken lightly. My vote shall rest on you TeMiL until you give more content than the next lurkiest player. State your scum reads (not your town reads). Make arguments. Put pressure on someone. If you are town do not go survival mode. Do what you think is best for town regardless of what you think will help you survive day one, this is both better for town and better for your survival, whether you realise it or not.
This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute.
On January 04 2013 14:54 Mocsta wrote: So we go back to.. zarepath, what is you motivation? If (/When) I go through your filter;
Do you think I will find town or scum motivations? Considering you are hawking the thread always, I am keen to hear your thoughts before I progress with this further
I see you already read my filter (went to bed right after those posts and just now got up), but since you addressed me directly, I'll still respond -- I'm pretty sure you'll find town motivations.
I am surprised that those who have voted for me (Sylencia, Omni) have done so without an analysis of my filter, especially considering we're early in the game and it should be decidedly easy to do so. I'm wary of tunnel-visioning either of them simply because they've voted for me and I don't want confirmation bias via OMGUS.
@StriX I have yet to see an action of yours that doesn't fall into the category of arguably scum or town. That is to say every action of yours could have scum or town motives behind them. In my mind you are the scummiest player so the vote stays.
(1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you? am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active.
(2) "growing in my role" What does this mean? (I understand English is not your first language) i mean i can learn what to do and be a better player each day. right now am like a little boy in his first class, i want to learn a lot but is difficult to be attached every hour. ill try to change that.
On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
i answer both rounds of questions and ive just finished the third. my 2 post where those questions and i couldnt write more because i went back home, forgot my celphone with internet connection and couldnt write any post until now. well ill hope u can change your mind.
On January 04 2013 14:44 OmniEulogy wrote: @StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else.
ill change your thoughts about me... can i?
On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote: In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all. .
thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times. right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute
On January 04 2013 21:12 StriX wrote: TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker.
until today . like i said i will practicing my english a lot! give an opportunity thats all
On January 04 2013 21:59 StriX wrote: ##unvote TeMiL
this was unespected, looks like cDgCorazon makes you change your vote?
On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote: #Vote: TeMiL This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute.
On January 04 2013 14:54 Mocsta wrote: So we go back to.. zarepath, what is you motivation? If (/When) I go through your filter;
Do you think I will find town or scum motivations? Considering you are hawking the thread always, I am keen to hear your thoughts before I progress with this further
I see you already read my filter (went to bed right after those posts and just now got up), but since you addressed me directly, I'll still respond -- I'm pretty sure you'll find town motivations.
I am surprised that those who have voted for me (Sylencia, Omni) have done so without an analysis of my filter, especially considering we're early in the game and it should be decidedly easy to do so. I'm wary of tunnel-visioning either of them simply because they've voted for me and I don't want confirmation bias via OMGUS.
Well, regardless of whether I think you are town aligned or scum aligned; I am going to put pressure, or ask for more information.
I understand why Spaghetticus was defensive yesterday *at least I think I do*; but, in general that is not the way to respond.
You seem to understand that by saying you don't want to be OMGUS.
Let me say this.. As a townie, we can all make mistakes. [The unwritten rule is to learn from them]
I suggest, if you think Sylencia or OmniEulogy are lynch candidates; build a more defined case that shows you are rational.
Try to look at comments from scum/town perspectives, if there is a reason for a motivation to be town linked.. are you sure you want to risk a 50/50 and call SCUM?
To me. OMGUS is saying, you voted me.. i know im town so you must be scum.. heres my retort vote. If on the other hand you provide "clear" and "concise" evidence that shows you are being rational, OMGUS does not apply.
Lastly, if you do build a case against anyone.. please take Sylencia advice, and try to post at least 4 hrs (preferably 8hrs) before lynch deadline. People should have an opportunity to defend themselves.
On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote: #Vote: TeMiL
I'm still reading and writing, but upon reading the vote update I thought it best to give my vote. This vote is a pressure vote but is not to be taken lightly. My vote shall rest on you TeMiL until you give more content than the next lurkiest player. State your scum reads (not your town reads). Make arguments. Put pressure on someone. If you are town do not go survival mode. Do what you think is best for town regardless of what you think will help you survive day one, this is both better for town and better for your survival, whether you realise it or not.
This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute.
No such thing as official pressure vote. A vote is the intention to lynch. Treat it that way. (at least publically)
I was debating whether to PM you, or deal with this publically.
Game rules say no PM, so unfortunately I am going to discuss this here (albeit briefly).
I know the intentions, we have discussed this in great deal before the game started.
BUT.. a vote needs to be treated with respect. You allude to that at the end.. but.. contradict yourself at the start, by saying its a pressure vote. Mixed messages don't lead to a clear impression.
I suggest you to re-read the Newbie 33 obs qt, specifically Marvellosity.
I think that's a fair approach to avoiding OMGUS, and thus I have withheld a fuller case (not necessarily against Syl or Omni) until I have more concrete info. Any full case I provide will certainly be at least 4 to 8 hours before the lynch deadline.
Note that I am calling into question the rationale of their votes against me by observing they haven't even gone through my filter thoroughly, not calling for them to be lynched (although I did give a scum read against Sylencia earlier). It is purely a defensive observation.
Quick reply @Moc In my mind I do not contradict myself, but I often pick up lingo and have my own understanding of it. My vote is a 'pressure vote' in so far as it is meant to pressure. My vote also represents my very real intention to lynch TeMiL on the condition that TeMiL does not improve his play.
If the term 'pressure vote' is categorised mutually exclusive to 'intent to lynch', then I apologise for my misleading communication. My vote is both real and intended to pressure. I think votes that are only meant to apply pressure do not work vs good players, and weaken one's own position as rational/analytic town, and consequently, one's agenda (be that scummy or town). I do not vote without intent to lynch.
(1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you? am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active.
(2) "growing in my role" What does this mean? (I understand English is not your first language) i mean i can learn what to do and be a better player each day. right now am like a little boy in his first class, i want to learn a lot but is difficult to be attached every hour. ill try to change that.
On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
i answer both rounds of questions and ive just finished the third. my 2 post where those questions and i couldnt write more because i went back home, forgot my celphone with internet connection and couldnt write any post until now. well ill hope u can change your mind.
On January 04 2013 14:44 OmniEulogy wrote: @StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else.
ill change your thoughts about me... can i?
On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote: In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all. .
thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times. right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute
On January 04 2013 21:12 StriX wrote: TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker.
until today . like i said i will practicing my english a lot! give an opportunity thats all
On January 04 2013 21:59 StriX wrote: ##unvote TeMiL
this was unespected, looks like cDgCorazon makes you change your vote?
On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote: #Vote: TeMiL This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute.
ill contribute :D
this is all right now.
OMG... Before I played Newbie 33.. I read through Newbie 32... there was this guy.. AxelGreaser... you have just given me back nightmares of him.. Luckily Yamato isnt playing, he would probably delete his team liquid account. In all seriousness, you have made my life easier today. I was about to start reading through filters, consolidating my thought process, to make a case as promised to cDgCorazon and Sylencia. But... your post, has made me throw that out the window ##Vote: TeMiL (1) You have had the lowest post contribution in 30hrs of play. No excuses (2) All your posts are fluff, and then your riposte to accusations of fluff, is simply fluffx2 with a
Does this make you mafia?
NO, it does guarantee you are mafia. Does this make you absolutely useless and unreliable town?
YES, this is guaranteed.
Town, I am voting TeMiL, because, his actions have proven to be useless and unreliable. (Yes, I use proven to a person with a 1 page filter, that is how strongly I feel)
I ask you this... if we were down to 3 candidates, YOU (Town), X (Scum) and TeMiL... can you trust TeMiL to vote for X?
I already know from his last post, the answer is no, I cant rely on his innocence as town, I can't rely on his skill to scum hunt, and I certainly can not rely on his ability to establish a vote.
but... lets take a look at the flip side and counter my argument. (1) Do we care if we can rely on him, we are not down to 3 candidates? (2) Do you not have a better scum read you can target (instead of lurker bait), as you advocate others to do? Well.. (1) Agreed, but there has been no stand out lynch candidate thus far. Thus, for Day1 it is highly likely TeMiL might be the hammer vote to send someone home... someone who could be Town.. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening? (2) Agreed, I had a better scum read prior to TeMiL posting, I was just about to read the filter. BUT, the risks to me from (1) are too extreme. We have limited players, 7 townies, every player counts. If TeMiL hammered a townie home, and then a townie is dropped off from Night Kill, Day 2 starts with 2 mafia and 5 townies; which is going to signficantly reduce town odds. I am looking at the big picture here, and lynching a ?possible town? TeMiL to me is less risk long term than lynching my scum read, who may also be a town flip.
Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening?
P.S. Just refreshed to see if anything new before posted, and saw this beauty. Case in Point. or as I have always wanted to say since doing Trigonometry in high school.
On January 04 2013 23:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I do not vote without intent to lynch.
Good we on the same page. I think this is Off-Topic enough it can be handled in PM.
i.e. if you want to continue this theroy-crafting, PM me. (and while your at it, let me know what you thought of the compendium, was it a waste of time? Took me forever to do that on a whim)
I just took ages to write this, copied it, hit F5, and realised it is probably less relevant than I intended. Thus, I will emphasise the part near the end where I point out that while your need is not urgent in relation to me (and now is less urgent in the eyes of the town), your response is critical to the direction town takes in day two.
@Zare Your recent call for attention speaks of a confidence of action that suggests you consider yourself transparent town. This is good, but (and I haven't read your filter) my impression is that you have not contributed enough to be considered transparent. With the pressure of votes on you, I appreciate that you are keeping the town's best interest in mind when you don't spill your guts in an OMGUS defense (others take note).
It is hard to maintain composure when your scum-reads come after you, I know this all too well. If you argue against your accusers in an objective interpretation of the game, I will listen and not call you on OMGUS. Realise, however, that the onus is on you to step up and be super analytical. If you try anything less than rational you will likely be torn to shreds (a prediction, not a threat). I may be reading too far into this, as I got lynched under similar circumstances last game, but I feel that your position will be the catalyst for the outcome of day one.
I will likely not be voting for you day one, but your responses could potentially be the launchpad for a day two campaign. I will continue to LAL, which, considering the pressure you are under, will likely not include you.
On January 04 2013 22:41 TeMiL wrote: answering mocsta questions: (1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you? am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active.
Saying you are a newbie doesn't get far in this game. We are all newbies. It doesn't really help you if you (semi-)threaten us about your interest in the game if we vote you out first.
thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times. right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute
A lurker is someone who is in the game, but isn't posting much. People want to have discussions with everyone, so if you aren't posting, people don't know what to think of you.
ive just make a chart with your connections. i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says: TeMiL - Peru Sylencia - Australia Spaghetticus - Australia Mocsta - Australia StriX - Australia OmniEulogy - Canada jampidampi - Finland cDgCorazon - USA zarepath - USA
i need to make some conclusiones with this information
On January 04 2013 23:50 Spaghetticus wrote: @TeMiL If you stick around after we're both out, I would like to talk to you also. //fluff
While I agree with Mocsta's conclusion I arrived there by very different means. In fact, I had entirely forgotten TeMiL's English being his second language. This, coupled with Mocsta's convergent OC, makes me reconsider TeMiL in a few ways which I will need time to straighten out. I am also going through the majority of the thread again, and was planning on trawling filters, so a clear and confident position is not to be expected from me for at least a few hours.
Basically, I am thinking of switching my vote to one of the other two lurkers (Strix or Jampi). My reasoning is convoluted even to me, I'm gonna need pen and paper for this one.
My filter trawling will be looking at second guessing the presumed activity levels of certain players, to guard against the possibility of 'active lurkers' or disregarding inactive players that contribute.
As a heads up. If I do switch my vote, it will likely be to Strix. I appreciate your position as an analytic strategist, but it is best for both town and you as a player if you learn to actively contribute [b]while[b/] generating a master-stroke. I am tempted to do exactly as you do, but while I generate my reads I see the need to interact and contribute. You will get lynched if you do not participate. This (again) is not a threat but an educated prediction. Being an analyst I assume you have some reads by now, and that by allowing yourself to be more transparent it is well within your means to push the LAL vote(s) onto Jamp or back onto TeMiL.
Ew. I didn't realise how little time we had. I don't like Mocsta's absence, as it both deprives us of a valued player and seems to contribute to the possibility of bandwagon play. Mocsta's post would actually be really scummy if it weren't completely legitimate for his timezone. I would be looking at going to bed soon too if sleep was even a sliver of a possibility in this heat. Oh well, I guess that's good for my game XD
Mocsta, if you are still about, what do the numbers mean? How do you define 'in session'? And what is the other, bigger number? Could you please spell this out for me please?
To everyone saying that I am lurker: I may have very few posts, but each and every one of them holds a meaning. I do not post without thinking. Every post is crafted with a clear purpose to push the town agenda. Randomly pointing out suspicions that are not severe enough to warrant a case on someone just makes them play more carefully. If the intention is to actually catch a scum, you need to tell about your suspicions while actually providing sufficient evidence. But if you require pointing fingers of suspicion around whenever theres even a bit of scumminess, I will begin to do so.
On January 05 2013 00:28 Spaghetticus wrote: Mocsta, if you are still about, what do the numbers mean? How do you define 'in session'? And what is the other, bigger number? Could you please spell this out for me please?
Since he's in bed, I'll answer this first:
Big number next to your name: total posts Small number (in session): amount of posts you made in between the two times he set.
Session 3 From: 04-Jan: 0930 To: 04-Jan: 2130
So you see there's the to and from, and so I posted 4 times between those two times.
On January 05 2013 00:03 Sylencia wrote: There's really no connection between country and players (roles).
(Mocsta, this really does remind me of Axle)
i think theres a connection but only my sense will be right or not. please answer my question cause this is my first one and you need to make mistakes to learn.
about @jampidampi i thought he was lurk because he had almost the same count of post like me, but like he said he had an intention and i think he contributed more than me. you are an only-man-country (@OmniEulogy too) like me. although your vote doesnt mean you are saved of being the next target.
If this is leading anywhere, you need to tell us what it is now because otherwise it is just all fluff which is considered scummy (causes confusion and it makes things harder for people to read and understand)
@Jampi I will go through your filter before I make a decision to switch, Strix claims a similar position and I will treat you equally. While I have not yet gone through your filter, my impression is that regardless of your post quality, it is not enough. Remember, your first (but not only) priority is to confirm yourself as town. If you confirm yourself as town we will not mislynch you. In order to accurately appraise you we need information, and that is achieved by you providing input. From the rest of town's perspective, your inactivity is suspicious. Town is an emotional beast that is subject to the machinations of a calculating minority. By not contributing actively you are giving scum the opportunity to mislynch you before you can complete your perfect case. Do not give them that chance. Spend time securing short term goals in order to actualise long term ones.
TeMiL drop the countries connection. Nobody will listen (for a reason), and it might get you lynched. Any correlation between countries and pressure or roles is entirely coincidental. The only exception I can think of is you. You are coming under fire due to your English communication skills, which is strongly associated to where you come from. Freude would have a field day speculating as to whether your approach to Mafia is some sort of preemptive damage control.
My vote before I go to bed will be currently going to jampi. I'll be back before the deadline, so jampi, if you have a defense, feel free to post it.
On January 03 2013 22:46 jampidampi wrote: As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
This is the reason you have given us for a lack of posts. It's one of your first posts, so it's actually more of a pre-emptive explanation of why you would be lurking. You have answered the questions presented, but you do not give us your insight unless asked. This gives me the impression you have to formulate thoughts before giving the answer. If you are a townie, there needs to be more spontaneous input when you observe something that strikes you as being off.
You posted some of your town reads, but a lot of it was based on some meta-reads and the logic behind them was still a little flawed. (The reason why the QT was brought up as a potential scum play was because it feigns ignorance, not sure if this was explained.) (Mentioning your scum play from last game doesn't make you more town, it can also be used to distance yourself from your previous game, and thus give the illusion of playing more town)
After that, you start to zero in on Strix. Your suspicion only came to light once Mocsta had come and asked you about Strix. This strikes me as suspicious, because it really comes out of nowhere. This is why I would say if you were town, you would bring it up when you saw fit to. Ask questions about it earlier. Instead, there's a sudden accusation followed by a few points made about his posts.
In one of your points, you mention how he targets the biggest lurker we have in the group, even though he said in his policy statement he wants to LAL. If anything, that only reinforces the fact he was, at the time since he did end up retracting the vote, following what he said.
Your second last statement essentially says 'what I stated against you could be town or could be scum', essentially being on the fence about whether or not he is scum. If he flips, you have some insurance if he is town by saying 'looks like it was town motivated.'
Basically, your posts give the impression you're on the fence about whether he is scum or not, you say he is contributing nothing, but you do not provide cases for anyone else and choose to tunnel on Strix.
I think a serious flaw in our discussion so far is the very limited discussion on the actual cases presented, namely zares case on syl (everyone has just said something along the lines of agreeing or saing that it is good analysis, but nobody has actually tried to argue with/against them) and my case on Strix.
On January 04 2013 08:31 cDgCorazon wrote: Your activity has been in your head. You should really think before calling me out for not posting.
However, I do think you have fair points on analyzing Sylencia's filter. I would like to see how Syl answers these accusations, and then I will make a read based on those as well.
Are you saying so far that everything Sylencia has done has been scummy or fluff?? You used the word "scum" in analyzing every most of his posts (and the other ones you called fluff).
You haven't posted your thoughts on this. What is your current opinion about Sylencia?
@All How do you feel about my read on StriX? Do you think Syl's case has been resolved or should we pressure him more?
Seriously, if we discuss our reads like this, we cannot ever hope to catch scum.
Well... this is embarrassing. I had these two posts in my word document ready to go, and almost deleted them before I realised I probably hadn't posted them yet.
I'm pretty sure this was in reply to Sylencia, I could be mistaken
Spag: What is to stop scum from controlling which lurker gets voted? Couldn't you argue that they would actually have more power, since they know which lurker, if any, is the other member of their team, and then just push for whichever other candidates there are?
________________________________________ On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I play for the long game, and think little of the chance of day one scum lynches. ________________________________________
Why do you push for a random lynch on day 1 over something such as no lynch (even though I explained earlier, does not give information)? You want to play for the long game, but killing off random players pushes the game into a faster pace, where we could end up losing on Night 3 if all goes wrong (all mislynches, a night kill per night). Rereading what I just wrote from this sentence, I have a feeling I'm misinterpreting what you're saying here, so feel free to correct me, but it just sounds rather contradictory to me to have these two actions.
It is not a random lynch. Lurking benefits scum, and is therefore not pro-town behaviour. Lurking is scummy, though town can do it too. The chances of a scum read off other factors are lower [I think, this is not a known statistic to me]. Scum want lurkers alive day two, as they are an easy mislynch when under pressure, it’s akin to having a ‘get out of jail free’ card. Getting a kill on two active towns before day two comes round is the scum dream, and by lynching active players you are walking straight into this likely trap, making their best case scenario a likelihood.
“Hypothetical” Scenario:
Three lurkers
Three moderately active players
Three active players
An active player is lynched day one, and active player is NKed night one. That leaves 1-3 ‘free’ mislynches and one threat that will possibly be eliminated night two (depending on medic availability and competence). This is a strongly scum favoured scenario and by leaving lurkers until day two you are making this possibility a probability. There is at best a 25% chance to lynch scum day one if going for an active townie (my estimate is a lot less). The chances of a successful NK action on night one are pretty high too. Note that regardless of where the two scum fall within the lurker spectrum, this position is fantastic for them. They always have the option to ‘improve’ when required to keep ahead of lazy town lurkers, just like Corazon did in XXXIII. Your day two lurker lynch will also be pretty unproductive, and a successful NK on night two would seal the deal. You might say that this is a lot of mights (haha). This is true. But make serious considerations of the math behind it and you will realise that playing for an successful lynch day one is a gambit where you don’t know which pieces do what, or even which pieces belong to whom. You have at best a 25% chance of a positive outcome (not better than a LAL vote), and every other conceivable outcome is inferior for town when compared to LAL. On top of this, LAL is not random, as you claim. Lurking is anti-town behaviour whether it is displayed by town or scum. Everyone knows it, even the newbies. There is no interpretation here. If a town lurks, he knows he is damaging town, there is no wriggle room. Anything that damages town’s chances is scummy, making lurking a very clear scumsign, one superior to other scumsigns as a read in many ways.
(1) Your response to Session 2. Q2 ________________________________________
Strong scum reads have already revealed a lot about themselves, and you can expect pressure on them later.
________________________________________ Care to develop this further (I do understand you said real life commitments would plague you today)
From your other posts, I am guessing you have aligned yourself along similar thoughts, but I will go through this motion for the sake of transparent play and for anyone not thinking along similar lines.
Strong scum reads only come from active players. If a player is inactive they cannot give strong reads (which is one reason why scum like to be inactive). When I refer to a strong scum read, I use this as one category under the umbrella of active player. No lurker is a ‘strong’ scum read. All active players contribute information on themselves, including their interpretation of events. The more information a person contributes, the more chances to make mistakes or contradictions exist, and thus over time, an active mafia is likely to be caught. If someone is an active player that is also a ‘strong’ scum read, you can expect that over time their guilt will compound into fool-proof cases, and they will be caught.
Lurker scum have a strength trend that is almost the opposite of this. Lurker scum that are not dealt with early get stronger. By sitting in the background a lurker scum develops an understanding of the atmosphere (in combination with his information advantage) in order to better manipulate it. He has made zero commitment to a playstyle (excluding meta information) and can thus adjust his style in order to make town mislynch. Improvements in his activity will be applauded by town (again, see XXXIII Corazon). There is no information on him so as long as people prioritise ‘strong’ scum reads over lurky scum reads, town will decapitate themselves leaving only moderately active/lurky players plus scum, which is a [b]TERRIBLE position for town. This is why I LAL, and unless you have a logical reason to disagree, you should to. I do not want a debate about this. If you have a reason to not LAL, I don’t need to hear it, as it will clutter the board, and take emphasis off of scum-hunting. We can discuss this via PM after the game if you feel you have a stronger understanding. Your vote is your own, so if you disagree with me, use your vote as you see fit.
TeMiL I agree with Mocsta on TeMiL, though maybe not on whether he should be lynched for it.
- TeMiL does not have sufficient mastery of the English language to effectively play this game.
- TeMiL does not therefore have useful analysis skills, as these stem from effective interpretation of communication.
- TeMiL is therefore unable to help town. It is unfortunate but true.
- I have a complete null read on TeMiL (25% scum) other than one read: I cannot think of a possible town motive for TeMiL to talk about countries. I can think of a plausible scum explanation that pairs nicely with his communication difficulties. TeMiL read a guide or listened to a coach when he was told that scum are supposed to mislead town with irrelevant information. For someone having difficulty with the nuances of English, talking about a geographic component to mafia fits this description perfectly.
On January 05 2013 01:44 Sylencia wrote: My vote before I go to bed will be currently going to jampi. I'll be back before the deadline, so jampi, if you have a defense, feel free to post it.
On January 03 2013 22:46 jampidampi wrote: As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
This is the reason you have given us for a lack of posts. It's one of your first posts, so it's actually more of a pre-emptive explanation of why you would be lurking. You have answered the questions presented, but you do not give us your insight unless asked. This gives me the impression you have to formulate thoughts before giving the answer. If you are a townie, there needs to be more spontaneous input when you observe something that strikes you as being off.
You posted some of your town reads, but a lot of it was based on some meta-reads and the logic behind them was still a little flawed. (The reason why the QT was brought up as a potential scum play was because it feigns ignorance, not sure if this was explained.) (Mentioning your scum play from last game doesn't make you more town, it can also be used to distance yourself from your previous game, and thus give the illusion of playing more town)
In hindsight, as I have already mentioned, I should not have shared those weak town reads at all. + Show Spoiler +
After that, you start to zero in on Strix. Your suspicion only came to light once Mocsta had come and asked you about Strix. This strikes me as suspicious, because it really comes out of nowhere. This is why I would say if you were town, you would bring it up when you saw fit to. Ask questions about it earlier. Instead, there's a sudden accusation followed by a few points made about his posts.
There was a long time between this post and this one. In this time I analysed StriX and slept, not to mention had a real life. I didn't post my case before sleeping, because I wanted to see the response it would create. + Show Spoiler +
In one of your points, you mention how he targets the biggest lurker we have in the group, even though he said in his policy statement he wants to LAL. If anything, that only reinforces the fact he was, at the time since he did end up retracting the vote, following what he said.
I have overlooked this fact during the orginal analysis, but that doesn't add to him contributing at all. And later he retracted that vote too. + Show Spoiler +
Your second last statement essentially says 'what I stated against you could be town or could be scum', essentially being on the fence about whether or not he is scum. If he flips, you have some insurance if he is town by saying 'looks like it was town motivated.'
You overlook the fact that I voted for him because he has no actions that have only town motives behind them. + Show Spoiler +
Basically, your posts give the impression you're on the fence about whether he is scum or not, you say he is contributing nothing, but you do not provide cases for anyone else and choose to tunnel on Strix.
##Vote jampi
By suspecting multiple people you lighten the pressure. Consentrating your atention to a single individual makes it more threatening.
@Spag only because am not an english native means that i cant read and understand everything. your first post were over active players but then change aginst inactive like me, ill be defending myself with honest and simplicity.
looks like you and mocsta are working fine together isnt? voting against me and making some fluff question
On January 05 2013 00:28 Spaghetticus wrote: Mocsta, if you are still about, what do the numbers mean? How do you define 'in session'? And what is the other, bigger number? Could you please spell this out for me please?
but wait, how you can make this question in the third post-counter post? sounds scum for me.
@Strix You look like you’re half way between lurking and posting fluff posts. When I skim over your filter I see nothing that looks like contribution. I am almost certainly heavily biased. If you have the time you may want to prove me wrong by highlighting some actual content from your filter? I will absolutely demand it of you come night presuming we are both still kickin’. I understand if you have other more important content to post, it is nearing lynching time so time is of the essence. Either way I expect either new content OR a defense, preferably the former.
I'm gonna make my vote early, so this person has a chance to defend themselves.
Before I go along with my vote, I think this needs to be said as well:
Anyone voting for TeMiL at this point is being lazy, and needs to pursue other leads.
I've already explained this earlier. Just in case you missed it:
On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote: In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all.
So I really hope those voting for TeMiL can unvote and put their focus somewhere else. We need a decisive vote, not a vote where there are multiple people on the chopping block(like 3-2-2-2). That just creates chaos and allows the scum to thrive (it also allows them to switch votes to get who they want lynched).
@Moc: If you think he is 100% town, why are you voting for him? There are others who have acted scummy, and you are going to vote for someone who you think is 100% town? It's ridiculous, and it's scummy. You know what it reminds me of? My tunneling of Threesr in XXXIII. Same situation, and I was mafia. Seeing as your first vote for me was based off of my XXXIII play, I believe that I can be suspicious of you for the same reasons. The proof is in the pudding:
On January 05 2013 00:19 Mocsta wrote: I am 100% sure he is town, but hes just too useless. My vote is sticking on him.
So don't be lazy. Vote for someone you think is scum, which is what I'm going to do right now.
##Vote: Jampidampi
Simply put Jampi, your play has been weak so far. You've only asked questions and made weak arguments. Not giving reads out because "you haven't been asked to" is ridiculously scummy, and put my decision on who to vote for over the edge. Your case on StriX's filter is really weak, and it just seems like you are reaching for things that make him look scummy. Truth is, there was not a lot to choose from between Zare, Jampi, and StriX, but saying that you haven't given your reads because no one has asked is simply scummy because you are afraid to share information you have with the town because you are scared the spotlight will come on you. If you are town, you shouldn't hesitate to contribute. However, you have been hesitant to contribute, which is why I'm voting for you.
On January 05 2013 02:53 cDgCorazon wrote: ##Vote: Jampidampi
Simply put Jampi, your play has been weak so far. You've only asked questions and made weak arguments. Not giving reads out because "you haven't been asked to" is ridiculously scummy, and put my decision on who to vote for over the edge. Your case on StriX's filter is really weak, and it just seems like you are reaching for things that make him look scummy. Truth is, there was not a lot to choose from between Zare, Jampi, and StriX, but saying that you haven't given your reads because no one has asked is simply scummy because you are afraid to share information you have with the town because you are scared the spotlight will come on you. If you are town, you shouldn't hesitate to contribute. However, you have been hesitant to contribute, which is why I'm voting for you.
You must have misunderstanded my post. Sylencia stated that I have been doing nothing on my own, to which I responded that no-one asked me for the town reads and therefore, it was my own intention to bring them up. Taking what I said out of context makes it look scummy. My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now. Also consider that a case on someone forces them to give us more information, making even weak cases somewhat useful. The reason I may seem as "hesitant to contribute" because posting a oneliner asking a vague question or restating something does not contribute much. As I said earlier, every single post of my has meaning, be it establishing my innocence or scumhunting.
@Corazon Anything addressed to Mocsta will likely not be answered until night.
I have spoken at length about why I feel the way I do about lurky behaviour. That you have somehow missed this gargantuan effort on my part and attributed two out of the three most active player's voting actions to laziness speaks volumes to me about the depth of your efforts. Admittedly, you are the one completing the trifecta, so this is more of a riposte than an in depth analysis.
Just so you know, I have a note in my word pad about your efforts to preserve lurkers. I think our disagreement in this regard is of consequence, do not attribute my voting action to laziness.
That being said, I approve of your suspicion of Mocsta's final words before bed. I have scrutinised this action and it comes off as RL problems, but I could be biased. Is there any more that you wish to add to concerning Mocsta's scummy behaviour? It does remind me a lot of your scummy tunneling in XXXIII. Mocsta may seem untouchable now but anything you can force from him when he does make a slip such as now could be vital later on.
On January 05 2013 02:53 cDgCorazon wrote: ##Vote: Jampidampi
Simply put Jampi, your play has been weak so far. You've only asked questions and made weak arguments. Not giving reads out because "you haven't been asked to" is ridiculously scummy, and put my decision on who to vote for over the edge. Your case on StriX's filter is really weak, and it just seems like you are reaching for things that make him look scummy. Truth is, there was not a lot to choose from between Zare, Jampi, and StriX, but saying that you haven't given your reads because no one has asked is simply scummy because you are afraid to share information you have with the town because you are scared the spotlight will come on you. If you are town, you shouldn't hesitate to contribute. However, you have been hesitant to contribute, which is why I'm voting for you.
You must have misunderstanded my post. Sylencia stated that I have been doing nothing on my own, to which I responded that no-one asked me for the town reads and therefore, it was my own intention to bring them up. Taking what I said out of context makes it look scummy. My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now. Also consider that a case on someone forces them to give us more information, making even weak cases somewhat useful. The reason I may seem as "hesitant to contribute" because posting a oneliner asking a vague question or restating something does not contribute much. As I said earlier, every single post of my has meaning, be it establishing my innocence or scumhunting.
If you're going to make a case, make a strong one. Don't make some half-case and vote for StriX, because then it just looks like you are trying to make a case and act town, when in reality only scum make half-cases because they need to make fallacious claims as to why someone is scum.
On January 05 2013 03:12 Spaghetticus wrote: Just so you know, I have a note in my word pad about your efforts to preserve lurkers. I think our disagreement in this regard is of consequence, do not attribute my voting action to laziness.
I'm only giving TeMiL D1 to fix his luckiness. I do agree that he needs to step up. As I've said, I'm all for LAL-ing on D2, but D1 LAL is just a really lazy play. You could say I'm defending TeMiL for now, but it's going to stop once D1 has ended. Trust me.
@Jampi Try to do more than just defend yourself. You are under pressure, but the best thing you can do for town and yourself is to be proactive rather than reactive. If someone has some particularly pertinent points feel free to address them, but you should be looking to contribute new content.
As you are now under considerable pressure yourself, I feel that I can tell you that I have ruled you out as a voting option. I was keeping this info from you to try and make you contribute, but now I sense a potential bandwagon on you that I think is not in the town's best interest. I feel the content you have submitted to be more concise, of superior analytic quality, and far less scummy than that of StiX. I'm still torn between Stix and TeMiL, for my day one vote. I think revealing this information to you has not decreased your motive to post, but has increased theirs, as their odds of my vote have gone up from 1/3 to 1/2.
Anyone that is thinking of voting for Jam should read through both the filter of Jam and Stix (they are both short), and ask themselves if there is any reason whatsoever they should vote Jam over Stix?
On January 05 2013 02:53 cDgCorazon wrote: ##Vote: Jampidampi
Simply put Jampi, your play has been weak so far. You've only asked questions and made weak arguments. Not giving reads out because "you haven't been asked to" is ridiculously scummy, and put my decision on who to vote for over the edge. Your case on StriX's filter is really weak, and it just seems like you are reaching for things that make him look scummy. Truth is, there was not a lot to choose from between Zare, Jampi, and StriX, but saying that you haven't given your reads because no one has asked is simply scummy because you are afraid to share information you have with the town because you are scared the spotlight will come on you. If you are town, you shouldn't hesitate to contribute. However, you have been hesitant to contribute, which is why I'm voting for you.
You must have misunderstanded my post. Sylencia stated that I have been doing nothing on my own, to which I responded that no-one asked me for the town reads and therefore, it was my own intention to bring them up. Taking what I said out of context makes it look scummy. My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now. Also consider that a case on someone forces them to give us more information, making even weak cases somewhat useful. The reason I may seem as "hesitant to contribute" because posting a oneliner asking a vague question or restating something does not contribute much. As I said earlier, every single post of my has meaning, be it establishing my innocence or scumhunting.
If you're going to make a case, make a strong one. Don't make some half-case and vote for StriX, because then it just looks like you are trying to make a case and act town, when in reality only scum make half-cases because they need to make fallacious claims as to why someone is scum.
You say this, yet your case on me is based on a misunderstanding. And while I try to clear that missunderstanding you ignore it, attacking something else in my post.
@Corazon Lynching lurkers day two is exactly what you do not want to have to do. You have disregarded everything I have posted on this matter without addressing it and it's starting to feel scummy. For the sake of you maintaining a positive town light in my eyes, could you duck through my filter and respond to my arguments as to why lynching lurkers day one is FAR superior to lynching them day two? Your position on day two LAL is from my perspective indefensible, and I would like to know why I'm wrong in thinking you uncharacteristically dense to disagree.
On January 05 2013 02:36 Spaghetticus wrote: @Strix You look like you’re half way between lurking and posting fluff posts. When I skim over your filter I see nothing that looks like contribution. I am almost certainly heavily biased. If you have the time you may want to prove me wrong by highlighting some actual content from your filter? I will absolutely demand it of you come night presuming we are both still kickin’. I understand if you have other more important content to post, it is nearing lynching time so time is of the essence. Either way I expect either new content OR a defense, preferably the former.
As above, but @Sylencia
You're being just responsive enough to fly under the radar. I can't see much that you've contributed pertaining to the outcome of this game, you've responded when prompted which suggests that while you are wanting to appear active, you aren't actually doing any of the background research that leads to OC or cases. This is scummy. As I said to Strix, show me some original content you have contributed, or even better, present some you've been holding back.
I am not going to pursue you if I can help it. Your process is so alien to me I can't really fathom your motives. I would like other people to apply scrutiny while I look elsewhere. I just can't see you as not scum, but this was true in XXXIII and you flipped town. Please people, before you attribute a scumbuddy relationship here... ... ... ... this is too high profile and obvious. My contribution will be substantial elsewhere, I genuinely feel my objectivity is compromised entirely when dealing with Omni. This is town motivated and too bold a risk for too little a reward to be a scum ploy. I have reasonable town motive, I don't want this post to haunt me.
Going to bed. It's 6am and I have been doing this for a laaaawng time. I'm not confident in my ability to figure this time zone stuff out, so I'm gonna set my alarm for three hours which likely means I'll be up in four. Hopefully that leave me room for lynching and all the associated hassle.
On January 05 2013 03:27 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon Lynching lurkers day two is exactly what you do not want to have to do. You have disregarded everything I have posted on this matter without addressing it and it's starting to feel scummy. For the sake of you maintaining a positive town light in my eyes, could you duck through my filter and respond to my arguments as to why lynching lurkers day one is FAR superior to lynching them day two? Your position on day two LAL is from my perspective indefensible, and I would like to know why I'm wrong in thinking you uncharacteristically dense to disagree.
If you're going to suspect me of being scum because we differ on our LAL thinking, you're going to have to come up with more than that.
I don't like LAL on D1 because it lets the scum get by with making mistakes and allows them to get a feel of the town without having to come under scrutiny themselves. If they know we are going to just vote off TeMiL because he is lurking, they can just sit there and bandwagon him because he is being lurky. You can find a scum through holes in their arguments, because they have to make a false argument look true in order to have the town see the scum making the accusation as town and the townie being accused as scum. While I do respect your vote because you have stated multiple times that you do not tolerate lurking, I differ in those feelings.
I probably should not have said "LAL D2", I really meant that TeMiL should be hammered for his lurking, just not now. We have other players who have acted scummy, why not make a case against them now and let a better scum go down D1 than just lynch a lurker D1 and if he comes up as scum it does not matter too much cause we won't find any information from the flip (due to the fact that TeMiL hasn't defended/attacked anyone), and we can pressure TeMiL later if he does not step up to the plate.
It's the same reason that you defended me last game: Most likely bad town/mafia, we should go after bigger targets. While I don't think I should be lynched for it (especially because you flipped town last game), I think that it would be curious that you would pursue me for defending TeMiL after this point(if you do so), because it's the same logic you used last game.
##Unvote: Zarepath given the three/four pages I need to catch up in and what I have read so far I don't believe my vote should still rest on Zare for this lynch. I think he has now contributed more than several others and it would be worse for town to lose him at this moment. I think TeMiL is just really bad town so I wont be voting for him either. I'll have a longer post written up shortly.
Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
That doesn't sound like a townie defense to me. Please be less emotional, and there's no need to go out of your way to say "As I know I am town."
I look forward to reading your longer post soon, grateful you're not voting for me, and am working on a long post of my own.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
That doesn't sound like a townie defense to me. Please be less emotional, and there's no need to go out of your way to say "As I know I am town."
I look forward to reading your longer post soon, grateful you're not voting for me, and am working on a long post of my own.
I love how you decide to push OE right after he decides to back off of you. Interesting.
That's not a push, that's calling out an emotional defense bereft of logic. No matter who'd phrased their defense in that way, I would've called it out.
@Zare its not a defense at all as he's not accusing me of anything. It's advice from me to him. He needs to get over what ever it is that he's holding on to. If you haven't noticed he's mentioned not getting along with me in several posts now and I've said absolutely nothing to prompt it. He even tried to play off Mocsta's question as "of course Omni will say I'm scum". If he really wants to take everything that way I'm not gonna stop him but he really does need to stop.
Alright, I'm not sure if I can get the whole thing out in under an hour so I'm going to make a summary for you Jampi so we can talk about it a bit while I continue to write up the bigger one.
I'll start with the people I don't think we should vote for in this lynch.
I believe Mocsta and Spag should be free of suspicion for this lynch entirely.
TeMiL and StriX I believe we should wait until D2 TeMiL I think is just bad town and I don't think a vote on him is the BEST we could do.
StriX says he makes long analytical posts. I'm waiting to see one. He hasn't delivered in 48 hours and I am most likely going to put my vote on him.
I believe Syl is in the middle ground and responded to the case made against him really well.
I have a very slight town read on Jampi. I most likely will not be voting on him unless something drastically changes.
Cora hasn't called himself scum twice yet so thats a plus he's actually been playing in my mind what a town cora would be.
Please ask any questions I'm doing a larger write up right now.
On January 05 2013 05:46 OmniEulogy wrote: TeMiL and StriX I believe we should wait until D2 TeMiL I think is just bad town and I don't think a vote on him is the BEST we could do.
StriX says he makes long analytical posts. I'm waiting to see one. He hasn't delivered in 48 hours and I am most likely going to put my vote on him.
You contradict yourself here. On one hand you say that we should wait until D2 to vote StriX, but also state that you'll most likely end up voting him. Could you clarify?
Not voting (4):, zarepath, TeMiL, StriX, OmniEulogy
Currently, TeMiL is set to be lynched! ~4 hours until deadline. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
If you don't vote at the end of the day, I'll kill you.
On January 05 2013 05:46 OmniEulogy wrote: TeMiL and StriX I believe we should wait until D2 TeMiL I think is just bad town and I don't think a vote on him is the BEST we could do.
On January 05 2013 05:46 OmniEulogy wrote: TeMiL and StriX I believe we should wait until D2 TeMiL I think is just bad town and I don't think a vote on him is the BEST we could do.
Oh really?
yes oh really. Just because I'd like to see StriX in D2 to see what he comes up with, I believe 48 hours should have been enough and I'll still vote for him.
Syl gave him a very nice resume as Mocsta called it and made me look forward to what he would bring to the table to help us with his insight. However I have not seen any of it in nearly 48 hours. Perhaps a town StriX would make large posts and push strong scum reads however that is not what we have seen at all.
He plays a newbie card early on and on top of that votes for TeMiL and feels that after making that his only useful(?) post he should not be grouped together with him as a lurker.
StriX Australia. January 04 2013 14:40. Posts 31 PM Profile Report Quote # filter @OmniEulogy by the way - if you reread I was the first to call out zarepath on his no-lynch so it's amusing to me that you use it as an argument then call me out for contributing nothing.
@cDGCorazon I shouldn't be grouped with TeMil.
If mentioning no-lynch is a massive contribution I must be severely missing something about this game. Especially after Syl brought up all the insight you bring to the game.
He follows up when asked why he doesn't pursue Zare with this + Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On January 04 2013 15:27 StriX wrote: [quote]Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.[/quote]
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
Basically, he wants to lurk and watch his target without forcing his scum read to actually answer any questions... thus giving him no new information. This is not a town way of scum hunting. It is scum pretending to hunt scum while allowing himself to continue to lurk. He also admits that Mocsta has fed him the names for his top scum reads at that point in time. No real searching involved.
We then have his take on Zare's case vs Syl and how to support/promote town play + Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On January 04 2013 21:19 StriX wrote: oops forgot this bit
On January 03 2013 22:47 StriX wrote: (2) [Mocsta] thus, how do you propose to support town play?
At this point transparent observations are my strength. Aggression for me is fun and all but very often seems to lead to situations we have with Sylencia v Zarepath.
He wants to lurk as town and offer no helpful information himself and use information other people gather to give his opinions. On top of this he then criticizes it when it is exactly what Syl had to do to answer Zare's case. It makes no sense considering it is exactly what he wants to watch happen. (have people question each other for information so he can make cases) The only problem with what happened was that a bandwagon did not form on a possibly innocent Syl and thus as scum he had nowhere to hitch his vote to.
He also backtracks on Zare just based on the fact that he no longer things the no-lynch would be scummy without a good reason. Stating "it was a ploy" and that is all.
At this point in time StriX has moved to my top scum read and therefore I am voting for him. ##Vote: StriX
You arguments have merit OE. I would like to take StriX's defense into account if he has one. My vote for him would at least be a saving vote for TeMiL, because it is currently 2-2-2 (TeMiL winning the tiebreaker). I don't think we should kill TeMiL off today, and I've said before that there wasn't much to choose between Jampi, StriX, and Zare.
I think, and this is wishful thinking Cora, if TeMiL hasn't voted by the deadline you should put your vote elsewhere as he will be either modkilled or replaced. But only let that influence you as we draw very close to the deadline.
He offers no contribution now, and if he's replaced, that person will be even harder to read because they've already had a chance to see all of Day 1 and can adapt accordingly if they're mafia. We lose a non-contributor at worst, while still gaining info from the flip.
I don't feel strongly enough about any of my suspicions to start a new campaign, and I don't feel strongly enough about either of the other two alternatives to put my vote there.
On January 05 2013 07:29 OmniEulogy wrote: I think, and this is wishful thinking Cora, if TeMiL hasn't voted by the deadline you should put your vote elsewhere as he will be either modkilled or replaced. But only let that influence you as we draw very close to the deadline.
You also have a good point there OE. Thanks for the advice.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
That doesn't sound like a townie defense to me. Please be less emotional, and there's no need to go out of your way to say "As I know I am town."
I look forward to reading your longer post soon, grateful you're not voting for me, and am working on a long post of my own.
I love how you decide to push OE right after he decides to back off of you. Interesting.
I have posted this in haste. as in, i read it and felt compelled to reply.
cDgCorazon.. i have no idea what vote trends are on page 20 yet, but seriously, you seem to have an axe to grind with zarepath.
There is nothing wrong with what zarepath posted, I read OE reply oddly as well.
If you can't see that, perhaps you are the one not scum hunting.
What info do we get from lynching TeMiL? I wish you (Zare) were still here, but I think that was a question that should have been thought out before voting for him.
On January 05 2013 00:19 Mocsta wrote: I am 100% sure he is town, but hes just too useless. My vote is sticking on him.
If he's your 100% town read, why are you voting for him? I thought the point of the game was to vote out scum? Even if he is useless in the scumhunt, his vote is still a big asset to us. Also, who knows whether he can step up his game in the coming days? You're saying that you aren't convinced that anyone else is scum, so why not vote for a no-lynch instead of voting him off?
The difference between voting for TeMiL and voting for a no-lynch right now is that if we keep TeMiL around, we still have a vote, and we can stave off a possible lylo later by one day. Is that advantage that irrelevant to throw away? I don't think so.
On January 05 2013 08:00 cDgCorazon wrote: The difference between voting for TeMiL and voting for a no-lynch right now is that if we keep TeMiL around, we still have a vote, and we can stave off a possible lylo later by one day. Is that advantage that irrelevant to throw away? I don't think so.
Fair point.
I am changing my vote for 3 reasons.
(1) I was worried about TeMiL getting modkilled anyway (2) My top scum read interacted in what I deemed a meaningful way overnight (3) Coach feedback as well..
I am stuck though for the following reasons. (1) There was a significant lack of discussion last night so I am not confident there are enough *hawkers* online to do a bandwagon (2) I dont want to build association cases, but I have a read on 2 players, and they happened to interact overnight subtley. My prime target is not a suspect, whereas the association who i would rather not target, is a suspect for others. I do not know which has a higher chance of people agreeing with me.
& (3) Spag.. hes really making life hard for me. If I wasnt so set on my top scum read, I would love to push Spag regardless (like TeMiL).. his contributions are full of white-knighting, full of contradictions, full of copy/paste jobs. I know he wants to be the medic to my marine [not a soft claim.. its a joke to spag from newbie 33], but his behaviour is pinging my scum radar A Lot.. Essentially to me his actions have a town explanation, but how he goes about it, is to me, quite scummy.
Most of it can be refuted in my response to jampidampi. I also think you've misunderstood - it was a ploy that I was backing off zarepath. It's a win-win to me. If he's townie he has nothing to worry about. If he's mafia he would have had a false sense of security.
Not happening in this case but I felt it a bit with zarepath originally. It's very tactical to 'voteblock'. That is vote someone before they vote you and then claim they are trying to OMGUS you.
On January 05 2013 08:14 StriX wrote: sorry time is of the essence so I can't really post the long analysis you guys keep hyping me for.
I just have one simple question. Don't you think it's interesting OmniEulogy bandwagons twice? (first on zarepath then on myself)
I'll attempt to find some proof because didn't really suspect him until now.
doesn't sound like an OMGUS? "I didn't suspect anything and haven't had any proof to support that he's scum but now that he's made a case on me and voted for me TIME TO HUNT" for the first time this game I might add. I guess its good that something finally pushed you to contribute. It's unfortunate that it's you being up for a lynch.
I welcome your case on me by the way. I am town, so the sooner you make your case the sooner I can tear it apart.
You can spin what you meant by "it was a ploy" all you want now. It's become a matter of opinion and as I believe you to be scum, your opinion on what you yourself wrote doesn't change the fact that you stopped pressuring him.
Seems to me after reading his filter that OmniEulogy's alignment very much depends on if jampidampi is good or bad. Currently they are one of the few two man bandwagon I've observed and we know how dangerous that is. I guess in my position it's very suspicious if jampidampi turns out good. Hopefully the gamble pays off or a cop (i suspect there is one) checks me. May be more useful on TeMiL/Spaghetticus though.
On January 05 2013 02:36 Spaghetticus wrote: @Strix You look like you’re half way between lurking and posting fluff posts. When I skim over your filter I see nothing that looks like contribution. I am almost certainly heavily biased. If you have the time you may want to prove me wrong by highlighting some actual content from your filter? I will absolutely demand it of you come night presuming we are both still kickin’. I understand if you have other more important content to post, it is nearing lynching time so time is of the essence. Either way I expect either new content OR a defense, preferably the former.
As above, but @Sylencia
You're being just responsive enough to fly under the radar. I can't see much that you've contributed pertaining to the outcome of this game, you've responded when prompted which suggests that while you are wanting to appear active, you aren't actually doing any of the background research that leads to OC or cases. This is scummy. As I said to Strix, show me some original content you have contributed, or even better, present some you've been holding back.
Wait, I've been trying to present cases for my votes, and that's going under the radar?
On January 05 2013 08:52 StriX wrote: @OmniEulogy at risk of adding more fuel to the fire. Will you vote for jampidampi if I die VT? I would have been suspicious if you bandwagon'd anyone.
I'm not sure honestly. I think I'd look at him again for sure, but the N1 kill and how D2 goes would influence my vote far more than who started the lynch in this case. especially as we have 3 choices currently.
Currently, TeMiL is set to be lynched! ~1 hour until deadline. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
Omni, my vote is going to you. I only have 50min left before I have to go, and I will not be available for the lynch deadline.
Because I can't be here, I am not going to make a huge case, I am going to point out what I think are anomalies in your play. If town agrees, they can share their vote with me. If you dispute them successfully, my vote will be the only one that remains, and you will not be lynched.
I hope that makes up for my lack of presence. Apologies, I was not even meant to online at this time in the first place. Omni has approximately 30 posts. I have chosen to pass through 9 key posts. Maybe some in general read null. But if you take all the 9 posts as a sum of contributions.. the result is zilch. Its all fluff revolving around policy, and copy/paste <insert participant post>.
This screams of scum play to me, and if you are not voting Omni, you better have a damn good reason not to. I am just going to do a quick analysis of your significant filter posts.
On January 03 2013 10:37 OmniEulogy wrote: Whoa didn't expect it to start tonight. I'm extremely tired guys and I was about to go to sleep till I saw the PM. I'll catch up tomorrow when I wake up x.x
Quickly though - for those of you who played with me last game my views stay the same for Policy lynches. We shouldn't lynch the lurkers D1 just because they aren't active, we need to actively scum hunt and push our top scum reads. I WILL lynch liars though. Townies don't need to lie in this game.
That's all I've got to say about that I'm looking forward to this getting going!
(1) Policy talk from all is typically meaningless fluff at the start. You say you will actively scum hunt.. but what have you contributed actively? A vote on zarepath.. because he votes no-lynch early game. that is not active scum hunting. That is prejudice. I can vote 100 people between now and deadline. its the vote at deadline that matters. First sign you need to step up your game.. the question is whether town or scum motivation.
On January 04 2013 03:18 OmniEulogy wrote: So a bit late but I'm (GMT-5:00) Eastern Time. I went to bed much earlier than normal though as I'd been up for almost 48 hours.
First things first. Spag has already said he's changing his style from his last game because it got him lynched D1. He's also right that I bandwagoned last game instead of sticking on Cora who was my strongest scum read D1 and ended up getting him lynched. I'm going to try and avoid that kind of play this game.
Spag your questions and calling them laziness doesn't really fly considering how you played last game however I don't really see it as being scummy. Your posts seem good so far and I agree we should try to pressure lurkers but just like XXXIII I don't think we should lynch a lurker D1 unless there is absolutely no other option.
That being said ##FoS: Zerepath The no-lynch is a scummy trait. As this is one of your first games on TL I'm not reading too far into it but it is not a townie mind set at all. You make a good reason for having a no-lynch but again... that is NOT a townie mindset. It's a reason for scum to slip through us and kill somebody N1 while knowing they only have to play it safe and just have to vote no-lynch or join the only wagon. Very hard to find scum like that.
@Mocsta I think Spag seems slightly more suspicious based on his change of play styles but we all knew he would be doing it so I'm trying not to judge him based on that. What I find more incriminating on him so far is that he says he is lazy when he was very active and making larger posts D1 with no mention (I believe) of being lazy.
I think your play looks almost identical to your town play last game Mocsta so I'll give you a weak town read for the moment. The only difference is that Aqua is not here this game so you had to vote yourself, I believe this is also not a move scum would make so early into the game so you've cleared yourself of my suspicion unless you make some posts that make me seriously ask myself WTF.
@Sylencia the chances of lynching scum D1 are indeed very low and I believe that is what Spag was saying. The fact that we almost had one last game should be forgotten because if we DO lynch Scum D1 it means they screwed up and the amount of information we would get would be MASSIVE.
example: if we lynched Cora D1 last game we would have had FC lined up and ready for D2. 2/3 scum gone in 2 days.
While I hope something like this happens we need to scum hunt to get it done.
@Zarepath I'd like to know your thoughts behind how I explained a no-lynch to hurt town and what you think of Mocsta's aggressive behavior so far in the game in leading discussions.
(2) This post is complete fluff. You have a prejudice justification for FoS (zarepath).. the rest is some fluff about policy and other players. Do you remember easy things for scum to do are talking about policy and voting for policy reasons. Yes I voted for a lurker (TeMiL) but my justification was not "he is a lurker" I gave rationale... Omni is simply "your stance differs to mine, here is a "FoS"... sounds like someone who doesnt care who his vote goes to... wait a sec, thats a mafia motivation.
Your post is pinging my radar Omni, you have been upgraded to FoS
On January 04 2013 12:32 OmniEulogy wrote: Talkative bunch. Alright... Vote: Zarepath you left us with a nice case on syl, I don't agree with most of it but it was a decent case and he responded to it very well. However you left right after ruining the chance of any immediate conversation that might have stemmed from it. Your position on a no-lynch is a factor in my vote as well, it just isn't a town mindset. Also claiming that a no-lynch vote is not even at play any more is a bad attempt to bury something that is very much a factor in how D1 plays out. Again not a town mindset.
You attack Sylencia largely on ideas that promote strong town behavior like his willingness to lynch lurkers in certain situations but otherwise always going for his scum reads. Almost everything you said about him applies to yourself in terms of posting, in which he is ahead in terms of quality and quantity.
##FoS: Strix lack of everything from you so far. You are a close second to Zare.
@Everybody What do you think about the case made against Syl? How do you feel about Mocsta leading discussion and his vote on Cora? How do you feel Cora responded to the vote. How has he given himself any credibility as town afterwards. (Cora please feel free to answer this one as well)
And lastly in answer to asking if making a contributions list if town vs scum it could be either. We had Shz in NMM XXXIII attempt a similar thing as VT and I've watched mafia players pretend to contribute by doing the same thing in other games. The point to be made aware of is that Mocsta has also lead discussions and is not ONLY making those posts.
(3) Your vote starts off as a disagreement of zarepath case to Sylencia. You then change gears and bring the justification back to policy. Sounds to me, your deadset on a bullshit reason to lynch this guy. i.e. policy dispute... The question is, are you that prejudice against LAL policy, you would pursue that as your top scum read... OR... do you vote for the policy because of your prejudice, which allows you to vote with conviction.. an important trait as mafia.
I find it further curious that you make a vote, and then post a FoS.. Lets say you believe it, you know from Newbie 33 lessons learned, not to make association cases. I think this is a nice attempt to follow/start a bandwagon on StriX, and give your self a lurker bait out with StriX.. in reality at that point in time it could have been Strix, TeMiL, jampidampi; I think you randomly chose StriX.
Lastly, why do you care if Cora has given himself town credibility. Typically it is scum who value their image to town.
If I look at the 3 paragraphs separately I have 50/50 reads. But the sum of their parts (i.e. the flow overall) to me is scum motivation, not town. You are still pinging my scum radar Omni.
On January 04 2013 14:09 OmniEulogy wrote: At this point I'd consider voting for Strix followed by Jampi and then TeMiL in that order. I know Temil said something about work hours but I'd really like to see his thoughts on current matters before even considering to vote for him. Strix does vaguely give off that "Threesr" feeling but not even half as bad as the real thing. He's my #2 at the moment.
I think we can cut down on the possibilities a bit more before anybody really needs to throw out a vote if they don't think they have a read at all.
(4) Interesting, you follow up your FoS, by calling out StriX, but take no action? You then put forward 2 other lurkers. How is this active scum hunting? All you do is propose a name, but is that not an easy thing anyone can contribute?
Omni again needs to step up his game. If i read this post independently it is a null read. Combined with points (1), (2),(3) I can see scum motivation.
On January 04 2013 14:26 OmniEulogy wrote: @Syl nope it's not directed to you.
@Zare fair enough I know it happens. I also agree that the mafia would rather have us lynch ourselves and get an even larger advantage. It happens in most games D1 but they also tend to be the ones who say a no-lynch is fine with them early on. Ignoring that aspect of why I voted for you though because as you say its hypothetical and you did make a case on somebody else I'm going to keep my vote on you for the time being.
(5) Again, more theory-craft work. What targets are you actively pressuring, and how are you aiding the scum hunt. At his point, 5 key posts and claiming you wanted to actively scum hunt..what have you contributed OmniEulogy.
Talk about Policy
Talk about policy
and more talk about policy.
Once again, all the easy things for scum to do. I think out of all the players, you are the one that has persisted with policy talk the most. Spag has mentioned his LAL attitude; but has not been as aggressive in implementing it as you have.
On January 04 2013 14:37 OmniEulogy wrote: I'm not ignoring your contribution at all. Sylencia's defense was enough for me to keep him off my scum list for now that's all. You can make a case like that and it doesn't really put you into the spotlight at all. If we all voted for him and he flipped town THEN it would. But you yourself didn't even vote for him. How is not even voting for somebody and just calling everything they have done scummy dangerous for you in any way? It's a good way to start conversation on a target, and you got him to answer but it's not putting yourself out there in any way.
(6) Ahh justification for calling out 3 lurkers.. It starts conversation.. I ask how.. All you do is say, Hi you are lurking.. There is no questions to them. There is no vote on them. There is in essence... NO CONTRIBUTION.
Your posts are at this stage consistently Fluff. Please tell me I am tunneling here because its getting painful to read these posts, I have to rack my brain to think why a townie would post all this garbage?
You may have a half-decent post count, but we have to extend the quality bar for you to a new scale that contains negative values... This is the point I went to bed. With all your "contributions - if i may" I had you as my top scum read (due to actively trying to participate, but not actually participating. I was going to put the pressure on you Night 1, but after your overnight posts, I have upgraded you as a higher priority than TeMiL. + Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Unvote: Zarepath given the three/four pages I need to catch up in and what I have read so far I don't believe my vote should still rest on Zare for this lynch. I think he has now contributed more than several others and it would be worse for town to lose him at this moment. I think TeMiL is just really bad town so I wont be voting for him either. I'll have a longer post written up shortly.
Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
(7) Interesting. The justification is quite weak to remove the vote.. He has contributed? big whoop, this is a piss poor attempt to move onto another target. You are admitting here your actual vote justification was weak, or even just sheeping. Again, how does that help town win? You never post your write-up either... I am on the thread 3-4hrs later, and its not there, what we get is a summary. Your comments to Spag are interesting as well. Overly defensive. What struck me as odd is
"As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try and divide townies..... please stop or I'll assume scum motivation" Very odd phrasing in general. Too many town references, is just plain over compensating.. obviously being scum.. You then try to re-enforce your town, by assuming he could be playing a scum game.. I also think in general you are over-reacting to Spags filter.. its no where near as relevant as you are making it out to be. Screams of trying to make contributions again... without actually contributing.
This post is not helping your cause.. still the top scum read.
On January 05 2013 05:46 OmniEulogy wrote: Alright, I'm not sure if I can get the whole thing out in under an hour so I'm going to make a summary for you Jampi so we can talk about it a bit while I continue to write up the bigger one.
I'll start with the people I don't think we should vote for in this lynch.
I believe Mocsta and Spag should be free of suspicion for this lynch entirely.
TeMiL and StriX I believe we should wait until D2 TeMiL I think is just bad town and I don't think a vote on him is the BEST we could do.
StriX says he makes long analytical posts. I'm waiting to see one. He hasn't delivered in 48 hours and I am most likely going to put my vote on him.
I believe Syl is in the middle ground and responded to the case made against him really well.
I have a very slight town read on Jampi. I most likely will not be voting on him unless something drastically changes.
Cora hasn't called himself scum twice yet so thats a plus he's actually been playing in my mind what a town cora would be.
Please ask any questions I'm doing a larger write up right now.
(8) The summary post. Classic scum trait. Easy to do, and looks like contribution. Is there any new thought in there? If you read it.. there is no original content in the post. Its simply a rehash of thoughts throughout the thread. Why are you trying to pass this off as a meaningful contribution? Curiously you throw in Jampi as a slight town read.. you have had minimal interactions with this person, and he is the prime target for several others in the thread.. and in genearl his post count is lacking... I would love a detailed explanation on this one.
Are there town motivations for this post? In theory, it sounds helpful.. my problem is, its ultimately fluff, there is no new contributions, which appears to be a constant OmniEulogy theme.
[QUOTE]On January 05 2013 07:06 OmniEulogy wrote: My case on StriX.
Why he is my top scum read.
Syl gave him a very nice resume as Mocsta called it and made me look forward to what he would bring to the table to help us with his insight. However I have not seen any of it in nearly 48 hours. Perhaps a town StriX would make large posts and push strong scum reads however that is not what we have seen at all.
He plays a newbie card early on and on top of that votes for TeMiL and feels that after making that his only useful(?) post he should not be grouped together with him as a lurker.
StriX Australia. January 04 2013 14:40. Posts 31 PM Profile Report Quote # filter @OmniEulogy by the way - if you reread I was the first to call out zarepath on his no-lynch so it's amusing to me that you use it as an argument then call me out for contributing nothing.
@cDGCorazon I shouldn't be grouped with TeMil.
If mentioning no-lynch is a massive contribution I must be severely missing something about this game. Especially after Syl brought up all the insight you bring to the game.
He follows up when asked why he doesn't pursue Zare with this + Show Spoiler +
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
Basically, he wants to lurk and watch his target without forcing his scum read to actually answer any questions... thus giving him no new information. This is not a town way of scum hunting. It is scum pretending to hunt scum while allowing himself to continue to lurk. He also admits that Mocsta has fed him the names for his top scum reads at that point in time. No real searching involved.
We then have his take on Zare's case vs Syl and how to support/promote town play + Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On January 04 2013 21:19 StriX wrote: oops forgot this bit
On January 03 2013 22:47 StriX wrote: (2) [Mocsta] thus, how do you propose to support town play?
At this point transparent observations are my strength. Aggression for me is fun and all but very often seems to lead to situations we have with Sylencia v Zarepath.
He wants to lurk as town and offer no helpful information himself and use information other people gather to give his opinions. On top of this he then criticizes it when it is exactly what Syl had to do to answer Zare's case. It makes no sense considering it is exactly what he wants to watch happen. (have people question each other for information so he can make cases) The only problem with what happened was that a bandwagon did not form on a possibly innocent Syl and thus as scum he had nowhere to hitch his vote to.
He also backtracks on Zare just based on the fact that he no longer things the no-lynch would be scummy without a good reason. Stating "it was a ploy" and that is all.
At this point in time StriX has moved to my top scum read and therefore I am voting for him. ##Vote: StriX
(9) The vote on StriX. Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking.. Seriosly Omni... future games you roll as town, you need to let it go man.... Justification regarding StriX->zarepath is weak, but passable as a town motivation.
Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification.
Weak overall, and lacking conviction.. Wait a sec, didnt my guide on scum hunting, suggest we don't call out early town reads, because mafia can easily do it because they arent lying... whereas, its hard for mafia to build a detailed case, because naturally they have to lie (to vote a townie)... hmmmm
its coming to gether.
SCREAMING SCUM! Omni has approximately 30 posts. I have chosen to pass through 9 key posts. Maybe some in general read null. But if you take all the 9 posts as a sum of contributions.. the result is zilch. Its all fluff revolving around policy, and copy/paste <insert participant post>.
This screams of scum play to me, and if you are not voting Omni, you better have a damn good reason not to.
On January 05 2013 08:52 StriX wrote: @OmniEulogy at risk of adding more fuel to the fire. Will you vote for jampidampi if I die VT? I would have been suspicious if you bandwagon'd anyone.
On January 05 2013 05:46 OmniEulogy wrote: ... I have a very slight town read on Jampi. I most likely will not be voting on him unless something drastically changes. .
Moc, why are you giving this to us an hour before the vote? Why not give this out after the lynch D1, instead of creating more confusion right around the deadline?
I'm not saying you are wrong (I need to read it over again, it's so long that it is making my head hurt), but why this timing?
On January 05 2013 09:12 cDgCorazon wrote: Moc, why are you giving this to us an hour before the vote? Why not give this out after the lynch D1, instead of creating more confusion right around the deadline?
I'm not saying you are wrong (I need to read it over again, it's so long that it is making my head hurt), but why this timing?
To add on to this, since I suspected this move would be pulled, doesn't this go against what you said/agreed with?
On January 04 2013 22:54 Mocsta wrote: Lastly, if you do build a case against anyone.. please take Sylencia advice, and try to post at least 4 hrs (preferably 8hrs) before lynch deadline. People should have an opportunity to defend themselves.
You've posted a big case, it's compelling on first read since I only skim read it first, but you're really not giving too much time for Omni to defend against all these points.
Right now, I'm going with StriX. OE's case against StriX has some very good points, and I think that we should reserve judgement on OE until we see what happens with StriX.
Moc, Syl has a very excellent point. If you are not willing to follow your own advice to others, how am I supposed to take you seriously?
OE gave StriX time to defend. However, you have not. It's not very fair, so I believe I am going to examine this case post-lynch, and StriX's flip will have a huge impact on my read of OE
I'm satisfied with that outcome. As mocsta said OE's case is really a rehash. Being repetitive isn't my nature and it will become clear if you read my response to jampidampi that I clear up most of the points.
Mocsta's entire case against me can boil down to him not liking my thought process, and me explaining myself as I vote and search for information. It is not a lack of information or fluff about policy as he is saying.
It's almost like he didn't read my case on StriX or wants to even mention it. Why would Mocsta not bring up this case? It brings up very good arguments against StriX which he has not even tried to respond to and he criticizes me for play he made (much worse) on TeMiL. Why does he not address such an important case?
Ask yourself if Mocsta's "case" has been made attempting to hunt scum when what I have been doing all game is giving out my reads on people and trying to pressure with votes and gain town information or if its an attempt to save StriX.
Mocsta votes on TeMiL - useless vote, changes to me with NO real scum indication or facts. All of his "scum reads" are his personal opinion.
I could claim Mocsta has personally delivered very little to the conversation himself, he asks a lot of questions but answers very vaguely and does not contribute unless it has been on TeMiL or other players who have been lurking. He's been called out on it already and tried to sidestep the accusation. This is very easy for scum to do.
He has also conveniently left so he can't expand on any of his idea's further. His block of text says very little for so much writing. He claims no contribution when I have pushed more aggressively than some people feel comfortable with against Zare, and now StriX.
He claims that switching my vote from Zare to StriX is me not caring who gets lynched. This is simply not the case. Zare began to contribute more and as the day progressed he became less likely to be scum and as such my scum reads changed. I unvoted and went over filters, read through countless posts again to come to a conclusion. That is not carelessly voting as he would like you to believe based on his opinion. I say him voting for TeMiL and then switching to me is much worse than what he has accused me of. He went from a lurker who has not even defended himself to a player who is possibly on to scum and has been scum hunting and giving his input on the top scum reads all game long.
Mocsta is wrong and I strongly advise you to not confuse his reads for facts.
Please note that I believe StriX' most recent action is purely for survival. He perceives the stagnant state of the Jamp wagon, but sees new hope in the spontaneous Omni wagon.
I should also add on, and I fking HATE to say this but I need to. If I am right about StriX and he is scum. This is EXACTLY what his scum buddy would need to do to get him off the firing line. Create massive confusion with an hour left in D1 and save his mafia buddy.
Currently, StriX is set to be lynched! 30 minutes until deadline. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
Took me 1 hr to make the argument against OmniEulogy.
Anyways, I am not available @ lynch deadline, as I am leaving the house in 2min. I was set on TeMiL.. i asked the coaches overnight for advice on whether to pursue the scum read, or vote the useless townie.
The advice they gave me, I took it under consideration and along with the other points I identified, I decided to make the post against Omni.
@OmniEulogy And Mocsta is also a good enough player that he can use my flip to clear his name. As I mentioned before if he doesn't die during the night it should become more and more suspicious.
On January 05 2013 09:32 StriX wrote: Survival = bad? It's weird also that you are basically saying with your vote that I lurk more than TeMiL.
last game I refused to vote for somebody I believed was town because I knew it would lead to a win. You voting for somebody you didn't have a read on to live is extremely selfish. You didn't even try to convince us of your read afterwards. You just jumped on me. It's not a townie way of dying. You haven't given us any of the information you've built. You didn't even make a case on ME because you couldn't find one. This is NOT town behavior.
if you want to keep your vote on StriX.. fine.. but my vote isnt going there.
when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
Is it not interesting with such a small filter, Omni declares jampi (slight) town read, and then sheeps his vote on StriX.
Spag/Cora.,,, whether you agree with me or disagree, we will find out post-deadline.. but if Strix is voted off, and he is town, you guys are coming under serious fire from me Night 1 (dw, i dont expect to live Day 2)
I'll be back in 10~ minutes. Guys trust me. I am town. Cora/Spag if you guys have any questions that I need to answer for you to be sure please ask. I have nothing to hide.
On January 05 2013 09:35 Mocsta wrote: Unfortunately I have to go now,
if you want to keep your vote on StriX.. fine.. but my vote isnt going there.
when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
Is it not interesting with such a small filter, Omni declares jampi (slight) town read, and then sheeps his vote on StriX.
Spag/Cora.,,, whether you agree with me or disagree, we will find out post-deadline.. but if Strix is voted off, and he is town, you guys are coming under serious fire from me Night 1 (dw, i dont expect to live Day 2)
Peace OUT.
Same goes for you if StriX flips scum. I've been holding off a case for you because I don't want to create a chaotic town environment right before the lynch, unlike yourself.
If StriX flips town, then I'm all for going after OE. I didn't have very many good reads, and OE presented a convincing case and allowed StriX to have time to defend himself.
On January 05 2013 09:37 OmniEulogy wrote: I'll be back in 10~ minutes. Guys trust me. I am town. Cora/Spag if you guys have any questions that I need to answer for you to be sure please ask. I have nothing to hide.
Seems the fire is burning full flame. You're very good at baiting me into responding. I now believe the mafia pair to be Omni + Mocsta. Mocsta until this point has been baiting jampidampi into me and is using this vote to clear himself. Mocsta also very cleverly uses this out of character last minute post case on OmniEulogy to clear himself after my flip. It becomes even more suspicious when I mention IF mocsta doesn't die as if I am the one who chooses (mia cupla).
Be very careful of the leading nature of Mocsta's Question time. OmniEulogy is very good at rehashing made points.
My vote will not go to Omni, because this has happened too many times in the past, where things get brought up in the last hour, and everyone rushes to change - causing a bandwagon that makes it hard to tell what the hell happened. It would not change who would be lynched, but it is better to be left fully analysed after the lynch rather than before.
My vote will stay on jampi because 1) I want to reinforce that he cannot continue posting once per 12 hours (exaggeration, obviously) and expect to get away with it. 2) For future votes, at least this can be noted for the future if that is the case that is required.
Also, just on this point:
On January 05 2013 09:28 Spaghetticus wrote: Please note that I believe StriX' most recent action is purely for survival. He perceives the stagnant state of the Jamp wagon, but sees new hope in the spontaneous Omni wagon.
It is his only option, because he cannot vote for himself if he wants to leave, and so the only action is to go to the person with the most votes. It isn't necessarily telling of anything, because everyone would do the same thing.
On January 05 2013 09:32 StriX wrote: Survival = bad? It's weird also that you are basically saying with your vote that I lurk more than TeMiL.
As a town or scum it's semi-expected of you. What I was implying is that while people see the vote numbers, they should disregard yours as it does not lay at the same place as your top scum read.
@Omni While I'm deliberately keeping away from you, it's not because I don't see a case. If StriX had tunneled you instead of being scummy/lazy it would probably be your head. Don't mistake my abstaining from scum-hunting you as you not coming across as scummy. I would have been more than happy with a lynch on you, I just don't trust myself to find the townsign if it is there.
The only way Omni is going down is if TeMiL is hawking and actually votes, or one of the StriX crew change their mind. Further note that in the former case, Omni would actually only have three genuine votes, as StriX' vote is survival focused and TeMiL's is meaningless.
@cDgCorazone @Sylencia I guess if I can't convince you guys it's gg for me. It's been fun guys - wish I was a higher level to be able to contribute more.
On January 05 2013 09:44 Spaghetticus wrote: The only way Omni is going down is if TeMiL is hawking and actually votes, or one of the StriX crew change their mind. .
Actually, they both need to happen, because of the tiebreaker.
On January 05 2013 09:44 Spaghetticus wrote: The only way Omni is going down is if TeMiL is hawking and actually votes, or one of the StriX crew change their mind. .
Actually, they both need to happen, because of the tiebreaker.
Wait what? am I reading the OP correctly? is a tie a no-lynch? I swear I second checked it to make sure it was plurality?
Currently, StriX is set to be lynched! 10 minutes until deadline. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
From OP: 5. This game uses Plurality Lynch. The person with the most votes gets lynched. For somebody else to get lynched, he needs to overtake the current lynch-ee in votes.
This game uses plurality lynch - The one with the most votes gets lynched. In case of a tie, the one that got there first wins the race!
and
5. This game uses Plurality Lynch. The person with the most votes gets lynched. For somebody else to get lynched, he needs to overtake the current lynch-ee in votes.
The second one makes it sound like you need a majority, but you only need a majority at some point in time. Someone is getting lynched.
Temil is a loose cannon. I thought he would just bandwagon onto votes, but he doesn't read the cases anyone has made. This might be due to the second language barrier that prevents him from understanding everything properly, but we cannot expect a proper vote from him.
Question is: Do we have to cut him loose or do we have to pursue the matters that came up the last hour first?
I'm going through StriX's filter over and over and theres nothing else I can say really. He wasn't even able to make a case against me because there isn't one. I guess we need to wait and see.
I think TeMiL's case should be looked at during D2 and we need to put some serious attention on him. Get him to put down all his thoughts on what happened D1 during N1. We Need him to start contributing.
"Hi", said jampidampi. "You do not talk enough for my likes", answered OmniEuology. "Woobergoose!", yelled TeMiL.
Alas, there could only be one logical solution. Since less shall be more, and more is always less, the sum of all that is, was and shall be is always nothing, but not emptiness. Just nothing. The lack of anything, even the lack of anything BUT the lack of anything.
StriX, the Vanilla Townie thought about one too many planes of logic for his good!
It is now Night 1. Please submit your nightactions per PM to ALL your hosts. Night will last 23 hours, so we can get back to the 00:00 GMT (+00:00) deadline we shall follow henceforth.
On January 05 2013 10:10 zarepath wrote: Now if there'd been a case against Omni four hours earlier, we could've had a different result. Welp, time to read the filters again!
result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless.
On January 05 2013 10:10 zarepath wrote: Now if there'd been a case against Omni four hours earlier, we could've had a different result. Welp, time to read the filters again!
result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless.
Not necessarily, Cora and I might have changed if there was time given for that case to be properly analysed.
Now that StiX is gone, you are the person who has had the most suspicion of them expressed with a vote. You are so far from bullet-proof it blows my mind that you would act this way.
On January 05 2013 10:10 zarepath wrote: Now if there'd been a case against Omni four hours earlier, we could've had a different result. Welp, time to read the filters again!
result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless.
Not necessarily, Cora and I might have changed if there was time given for that case to be properly analysed.
On January 05 2013 10:10 zarepath wrote: Now if there'd been a case against Omni four hours earlier, we could've had a different result. Welp, time to read the filters again!
result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless.
Not necessarily, Cora and I might have changed if there was time given for that case to be properly analysed.
On January 05 2013 10:16 Spaghetticus wrote: You are overconfident Omni.
Now that StiX is gone, you are the person who has had the most suspicion of them expressed with a vote. You are so far from bullet-proof it blows my mind that you would act this way.
prior to the vote 0% chance unless scum was waiting to switch from StriX to myself. Which would make no sense it would give them away entirely. Now I agree after the vote. But before... nah.
On January 05 2013 10:10 zarepath wrote: Now if there'd been a case against Omni four hours earlier, we could've had a different result. Welp, time to read the filters again!
result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless.
Not necessarily, Cora and I might have changed if there was time given for that case to be properly analysed.
why Cora specifically?
I feel like Moc put up some great points, but it was way too close to the deadline to fairly analyze it. However, I am going to and come back with my feelings on it. Had Mocsta decided to post it 4 hours ago, I might have voted for you.
On January 05 2013 10:10 zarepath wrote: Now if there'd been a case against Omni four hours earlier, we could've had a different result. Welp, time to read the filters again!
result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless.
Not necessarily, Cora and I might have changed if there was time given for that case to be properly analysed.
why Cora specifically?
Because he stated it himself.
he stated mocsta didn't give me enough time to defend myself. thats far from what you are implying.
On January 05 2013 09:20 cDgCorazon wrote: Right now, I'm going with StriX. OE's case against StriX has some very good points, and I think that we should reserve judgement on OE until we see what happens with StriX.
Moc, Syl has a very excellent point. If you are not willing to follow your own advice to others, how am I supposed to take you seriously?
OE gave StriX time to defend. However, you have not. It's not very fair, so I believe I am going to examine this case post-lynch, and StriX's flip will have a huge impact on my read of OE
On January 05 2013 10:10 zarepath wrote: Now if there'd been a case against Omni four hours earlier, we could've had a different result. Welp, time to read the filters again!
result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless.
Not necessarily, Cora and I might have changed if there was time given for that case to be properly analysed.
why Cora specifically?
Because he stated it himself.
he stated mocsta didn't give me enough time to defend myself. thats far from what you are implying.
And depending on your defense, Cora might have switched if it was posted earlier. I do not see this to be any different to what I said, seeing as how I didn't say Cora and I would definitely change votes.
In any case, why are we arguing over this? This is not what we should be concentrating on.
I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.
This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.
It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim.
Another thing to look at is the fact that as soon as Moc put up his analysis, the four following votes happened:
I switched from TeMiL to OE. Spag switched from TeMiL to StriX (after my vote) Sylencia did NOT switch to either OE or StriX; he was obviously paying attention to the thread (he kept posting), but felt no need to push the dial one way or the other even when a single vote for either of the two (StriX and OE) would have made a large difference. Instead he remained on a person who was almost assuredly not going to be lynched. TeMiL votes for jampidampi for no discernible reason.
Spag's vote is a direct declaration for StriX over OE or jampidampi, and does not hold at all to his LAL policy he's been harping about all day. I will have to check the filter (chaotic two hours and I was in and out), but I don't recall his explanation for that.
Sylencia and TeMiL's votes, however, are indirect assurances of StriX being guilty over OE without having to say as much. They didn't reiterate strong cases for jampidampi or try to argue anyone else into also voting for jampidampi.
@Zare how does Spag's vote on StriX not follow his LAL policy? From your point of view was StriX not lurking? He had roughly as many posts as Jampi before he had to start defending himself. and made almost no contributions up to that point. The only other player who was worse than both of them was TeMiL.
@TeMiL Give us your thoughts on what happened during the first Day. What do you think about who got lynched? Why did you vote for Jampi? Who are your top scum reads? Why do you not post often? What do you think about the cases that have been made on people?
I'd like these answers before the end of N1. You've had more than enough time and clearly you read the thread and know when things are happening.
On January 05 2013 04:03 cDgCorazon wrote: If you're going to suspect me of being scum because we differ on our LAL thinking, you're going to have to come up with more than that.
I don't like LAL on D1 because it lets the scum get by with making mistakes and allows them to get a feel of the town without having to come under scrutiny themselves. If they know we are going to just vote off TeMiL because he is lurking, they can just sit there and bandwagon him because he is being lurky. You can find a scum through holes in their arguments, because they have to make a false argument look true in order to have the town see the scum making the accusation as town and the townie being accused as scum. While I do respect your vote because you have stated multiple times that you do not tolerate lurking, I differ in those feelings.
I probably should not have said "LAL D2", I really meant that TeMiL should be hammered for his lurking, just not now. We have other players who have acted scummy, why not make a case against them now and let a better scum go down D1 than just lynch a lurker D1 and if he comes up as scum it does not matter too much cause we won't find any information from the flip (due to the fact that TeMiL hasn't defended/attacked anyone), and we can pressure TeMiL later if he does not step up to the plate.
It's the same reason that you defended me last game: Most likely bad town/mafia, we should go after bigger targets. While I don't think I should be lynched for it (especially because you flipped town last game), I think that it would be curious that you would pursue me for defending TeMiL after this point(if you do so), because it's the same logic you used last game.
On January 05 2013 08:00 cDgCorazon wrote: This is what confuses me Moc:
On January 05 2013 00:19 Mocsta wrote: I am 100% sure he is town, but hes just too useless. My vote is sticking on him.
If he's your 100% town read, why are you voting for him? I thought the point of the game was to vote out scum? Even if he is useless in the scumhunt, his vote is still a big asset to us. Also, who knows whether he can step up his game in the coming days? You're saying that you aren't convinced that anyone else is scum, so why not vote for a no-lynch instead of voting him off?
The difference between voting for TeMiL and voting for a no-lynch right now is that if we keep TeMiL around, we still have a vote, and we can stave off a possible lylo later by one day. Is that advantage that irrelevant to throw away? I don't think so.
On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote: Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX.
I am wondering about this. Just because it is too risky for both scum to vote for someone they know will flip green?
Because you immediately switched your vote to StiX only when it looked as though OE might get a bandwagon. It's theoretically possible that mafia only planned one vote on StiX, but someone had to switch to make sure it happened, and then use the argument that you just used so that if a mafia who voted for StiX flips red, the other mafia is safe.
I don't necessarily think that's what happened, but it seems a little big of step to assume there's only one in there. Food for thought, though.
Actually zere, my voting of either does not change anything, other than possibly Temil seeing only 2 targets on the board and darting one of them, which come to think of it, might've happened.
If I voted Strix, same result. If I voted OE, same result. If I had voted OE, there would be a very low chance of any votes shifting as well. Why? Most people already stated why they voted for one or the other. If Strix was scum, there would be wagoning over to the other side, but he was not, so the result would have ended up the same in either case.
I stated the reason why I stayed on jampi, but did not elaborate on it very much. Using the one instance where he gave town reads out (and said that he shouldn't have) as a case where he has spontaneously contributed is not a strong defense. It does not provide anything when the reads are also very weak. If it was something more concrete, then I would take the statement more seriously, but it wasn't. Also
On January 05 2013 03:08 jampidampi wrote: My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now.
If he has such a weak case, why couldn't he have strengthened it any more by asking more questions, as he said he would in his first few posts. Instead, all that we get are answers to questions and accusations. It's not exactly good enough to say you have little to no information to go off, and leave it be and vote. It's slack, and it's scummy because it shows you don't care about the consequences of tunneling a player.
As for Temil, I have no idea what he is doing or saying, but my prediction remains at a dartboard randomised vote. This is an issue we need to consider for Day 2, because I do not want to be in the situation where we could have 1 pretty scummy guy + 1 not as scummy guy sitting on 3-3.
I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves. I invite the scrutiny (it's inevitable). I like the direction of this analysis. I want Syl pushed, and am very happy with this information as a foundation.
I will most likely post an explanation of my behaviour later, but this should not stop you analysing my motives now. Your switch doesn't seem particularly scummy to me, but I have reason for bias in that I believe I changed for similar reasons.
I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with.
If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL.
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote: I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
Could you elaborate on this move? What makes it similar and why is it scummy/bad. What town and scum motives can be attributed to this action? Do you realise just how little reasoning you are explaining when you just give us your conclusions?
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote: I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
How in the world was Zare's vote for you similar to mine in XXXIII? I voted for you in XXXIII because you were playing ridiculously irrational, changed your opinion on me multiple times, and voted out a townie even though you claimed I was "100% scum". You set yourself up to allow me to bandwagon easily on you without getting suspicion. I don't think this is even close to that situation.
There really isn't much to look into on Zare's move other than when I had Cora fingered as scum (and was right) and then backed off him, he used the first chance he had to try and vote for me and did in fact get me lynched using somebody else to make all their points. In this situation though, and as I haven't gone through every filter yet I can't really say it's very scummy. He had to put his vote somewhere so I'm stuck on how to take his vote. He gives no reasoning on it, and can now use Mocsta's case as his reason. very little contribution right up to the deadline although its fairly obvious he was here the entire time waiting to see how it would unfold means he didn't particularly care which of us (StriX or myself) got lynched. He didn't try to convince anybody else to vote for me. He just kept quiet and maybe hoped his vote would go unnoticed.
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote: I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
How in the world was Zare's vote for you similar to mine in XXXIII? I voted for you in XXXIII because you were playing ridiculously irrational, changed your opinion on me multiple times, and voted out a townie even though you claimed I was "100% scum". You set yourself up to allow me to bandwagon easily on you without getting suspicion. I don't think this is even close to that situation.
You kept saying null read null read and I did one thing and you placed your vote immediately. Even the coach I asked about it said it was a scum tell afterwards. I think it was even mentioned in the OBS QT. lol
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote: I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
How in the world was Zare's vote for you similar to mine in XXXIII? I voted for you in XXXIII because you were playing ridiculously irrational, changed your opinion on me multiple times, and voted out a townie even though you claimed I was "100% scum". You set yourself up to allow me to bandwagon easily on you without getting suspicion. I don't think this is even close to that situation.
You kept saying null read null read and I did one thing and you placed your vote immediately. Even the coach I asked about it said it was a scum tell afterwards. I think it was even mentioned in the OBS QT. lol
We can talk about this later, I disagree with that point. However, we need to focus on this game instead of being stuck in the past.
I'm just finishing up reading through things, and should have a bit of analysis soon.
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote: I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
Wait, wait, wait.
Who said 1 scum on StriX and 1 scum on YOU?
You are completely ignoring the two people who voted for jampi, and assuming that whoever voted for you is scum (a natural defensive posture, to be sure).
I don't know about this Cora stuff, but how is it bad play, let alone scummy, for me to have switched from TeMiL to you when presented with a strong amount of evidence by a strong pro-town contributor? If it were such a bad play to have switched off of TeMiL, why didn't YOU vote for TeMiL?
If OE had voted for TeMiL I would have 100% voted for him with Mocsta's case. I've denounced voting him out D1 and I would have seen it as going after the easy lynch when the pressure was on him.
I'm not ignoring the votes on Jampi. I'm ruling out Syl for the time being and I couldn't even begin to guess at TeMiL. Who else has votes on them other than those two? I know you'd like to believe Spag and myself are both scum but you are wrong. Cora is also a null read at the moment.
And I already said why I wouldn't vote for TeMiL. I made my case against StriX... do you really not care who a vote gets placed on that much? Nothing in what you have just said makes much sense. "I switched from TeMiL because I saw a chance to change to you, Why weren't YOU voting for TeMiL?" really? I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
On January 05 2013 10:36 OmniEulogy wrote: @Zare how does Spag's vote on StriX not follow his LAL policy? From your point of view was StriX not lurking? He had roughly as many posts as Jampi before he had to start defending himself. and made almost no contributions up to that point. The only other player who was worse than both of them was TeMiL.
Which is the person he was voting for before switching. He's made some cryptic remarks about us decoding his reasoning for doing it, which really isn't to my taste; spit out your reasoning so we can get as much informed discussion done as possible before the day's over and mafia kills somebody. Especially with these time zone differences, we're basically having two separate shifts of discussion each day, and by delaying reasoning for anything you're preventing half of the town from participating. Especially consdiering that his switch vote, at the time, seemed made to ensure that StriX, who we now know is town, was lynched.
On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
I am trying to discern why you say that switching my vote from TeMiL to you is bad play. I personally think it was fine, but I would like to hear your reasoning and not necessarily because I'm trying to out you as scum with your answer.
@Omni Don't talk about coaches. If we are not allowed to analyse coach claims, there is no point in using them to give emphasis. It's unverifiable and therefore meaningless. It is at best worthless fluff and at worst a deliberate appeal to authority to try and sway town towards your unsubstantiated opinions. A town would not want to do either (if your opinions are substantiated, you should be able to give reasons other than 'a coach agrees'.
@Corazon No, your posts did little to influence me, though they did help me respect your position a little more. My response to your second post was an attempt to lead you into Mocsta's honey pot, so while an accurate perspective, it was not news to me. You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move.
On January 05 2013 10:50 Spaghetticus wrote: @Zare Good post.
I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves. I invite the scrutiny (it's inevitable). I like the direction of this analysis. I want Syl pushed, and am very happy with this information as a foundation.
I will most likely post an explanation of my behaviour later, but this should not stop you analysing my motives now. Your switch doesn't seem particularly scummy to me, but I have reason for bias in that I believe I changed for similar reasons.
I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with.
If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL.
If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote.
If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes.
Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds.
Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game?
After looking through StriX's filter, OE's accusations of StriX, and Mocsta's accusations against OE, I have come up with some analysis.
I could see how a town OE could see StriX as scum. StriX made a lot of scummy comments and actions, such as voting for TeMiL just because of the lurking, and saying that he is only an observer and wanting others to do the scumhunting for him so he can just sit around and give analysis on accusations. I could see this as scummy behavior (and I did).
However, I could see a scum picking on StriX as well. It doesn't take a genius to see that StriX's behavior was not convincingly town. He could be seen as an easy target to get the town to mislynch one of their own.
We shouldn't forgive OE for mislynching, but we shouldn't crucify him for it either. However, I will be watching him a bit more closely from now on.
On Mocsta's attack on OE: I feel like Mocsta was exaggerating a bit in his accusations by saying that OE had only talked about policy and fluff. I feel like this is too harsh on OE. The biggest issue I've had with it is the timing. One hour before the lynch? Was it that important to where it could have been saved for N1?
I want to hear more from Moc before I say anymore on his case, but that is what I've taken about the actions that have occured in the past few hours.
In other news, we still have two lurkers: jampi and TiMeL. I worry that leaving either of them alone could spell disastrous in the long run, and even if they're not mafia town will constantly be wondering about those two lurkers and if they were mafia, leading to another mislynch. Something does have to happen to change their level of participation, because that's an enormous liability that will only get bigger as the game goes on.
I think we learned a lot more with the last-minute analysis than we would have if it hadn't happened. In the chaos, the outcome didn't change, but we saw who felt pressure to vote where.
I still agree that it would be better if such were done earlier in the day, what with the time zone differences.
On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
I am trying to discern why you say that switching my vote from TeMiL to you is bad play. I personally think it was fine, but I would like to hear your reasoning and not necessarily because I'm trying to out you as scum with your answer.
it wasn't necessarily about the vote coming off TeMiL, I feel its more about not explaining yourself and just throwing it out there. If you are willing to go over why you changed your vote using your own reasoning and not just because of Mocsta's post I'd feel a lot better about it.
And Spag if the mods have any issue with how I brought that up let it be known. It didn't break any rules though and it wasn't even about this game. I'm just letting him know exactly where my thought process behind why I found it a possibly scummy vote. There is no reason not to add that I had outside help in determining what to look for from a previous game.
The Australians needed sleep, it was sort of unavoidable. As previously stated, I slept 6:00am until 9:30am in order to both give time for people, and be present to control lynch outcome. You can't expect everyone to do that, I don't have a job and Uni is out, so it's not such a big issue for me.
The lynch dance, while unsuccessful in landing a scumwhale, was very productive information wise, as has been mentioned by others. We now have a treasure trove of info on most players, so I expect an increase in aggression, as nobody has an excuse to not have reads now.
@Omni I don't think the mods have a problem with claiming to have conversed with coaches, but as has already been established, they do have a problem with real analysis of the claim. I have a problem with you claiming to have spoken with coaches, for the reasons I have previously stated.
In regard to your 'soft buddy claim' on me, this is shocking. I honestly feel helpless in regard to this. It doesn't seem intentional, but I have the benefit of knowing we are not buddies. This in conjunction with my previous decidedly odd decision to not scumhunt you despite my suspicions of you, is basically aligning my fate with your flip.
I'm sorry to wash my hands of you in such a way, particularly since I believe your intention was to defend someone you read as town. I can't think of a scum motive for this action that doesn't come off a little far fetched though, which is good for me.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
I truthfully have no clue what goes on in your mind in regards to me personally and don't really care. You need to stop dwelling on what ever it is. I have a town read on you, that's all. why are you trying to make it seem weird? lol I also only mentioned we aren't a scum team. How you get overly defensive of that is a mystery on its own. You can be scum by yourself all you want, I just stated I'm not scum I'm town and if you are scum I'm not with you. Seriously stop trying to make things up between us it's getting really weird. lol
On January 05 2013 09:55 OmniEulogy wrote: I think TeMiL's case should be looked at during D2 and we need to put some serious attention on him. Get him to put down all his thoughts on what happened D1 during N1. We Need him to start contributing.
How convenient OE.
I havn't read the whole thread, but now know StriX was VT.
Cora /Spag better build some pressure/cases on you like that promised.
I am not going to let you target TeMiL to lower your suspicion.,
If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote.
If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes.
Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds.
Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game?
This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post.
His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way.
In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two).
TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same.
You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play.
Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain...
How frustrating.
Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum.
On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I'm not ignoring the votes on Jampi. I'm ruling out Syl for the time being and I couldn't even begin to guess at TeMiL. Who else has votes on them other than those two?I know you'd like to believe Spag and myself are both scum but you are wrong. Cora is also a null read at the moment.
And I already said why I wouldn't vote for TeMiL. I made my case against StriX... do you really not care who a vote gets placed on that much? Nothing in what you have just said makes much sense. "I switched from TeMiL because I saw a chance to change to you, Why weren't YOU voting for TeMiL?" really? I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
You are stating you have information on me that you would not have as a townie. This is a soft claim, though I really can't think of an intent for town or scum.
On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I'm not ignoring the votes on Jampi. I'm ruling out Syl for the time being and I couldn't even begin to guess at TeMiL. Who else has votes on them other than those two? I know you'd like to believe Spag and myself are both scum but you are wrong. Cora is also a null read at the moment.
And I already said why I wouldn't vote for TeMiL. I made my case against StriX... do you really not care who a vote gets placed on that much? Nothing in what you have just said makes much sense. "I switched from TeMiL because I saw a chance to change to you, Why weren't YOU voting for TeMiL?" really? I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
Your case against StriX sucked. I commented about it in my case... you obviously didn't read it.
Cora null, you have got to be joking.
Cora is playing more pro-town than me; if you can't see that, you are obviously scum OmniEulogy.
@Corazon My response to your second post was an attempt to lead you into Mocsta's honey pot. You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move.
On January 05 2013 11:19 Spaghetticus wrote: You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move.
Spaghetticus, you are constantly inserting my name and scum in the same sentences.
I am not going to bother inserting the posts, because I would run out of page space...(read through the filter search Mocsta, and it is evident)
If you have a problem with me, and the way I am operating.. Call me out directly, and make a case.
Otherwise, you are trying to influence individuals in a deceptive manner. I think everyone can agree that is NOT town-like.
(For the record, I don't even know what your "honey-pot" is referring to)
On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I'm not ignoring the votes on Jampi. I'm ruling out Syl for the time being and I couldn't even begin to guess at TeMiL. Who else has votes on them other than those two? I know you'd like to believe Spag and myself are both scum but you are wrong. Cora is also a null read at the moment.
And I already said why I wouldn't vote for TeMiL. I made my case against StriX... do you really not care who a vote gets placed on that much? Nothing in what you have just said makes much sense. "I switched from TeMiL because I saw a chance to change to you, Why weren't YOU voting for TeMiL?" really? I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
Your case against StriX sucked. I commented about it in my case... you obviously didn't read it.
Cora null, you have got to be joking.
Cora is playing more pro-town than me; if you can't see that, you are obviously scum OmniEulogy.
do you know how to post facts or only your personal opinions mocsta? So far this game its a severe letdown. Cora's been playing extremely well and I didn't even remotely come close to calling him scum did I? Get over yourself, Your opinions are not facts.
@Mocsta I actually did not promise to make a case against Omni, I distinctly stated that while I feel he is scummy, I do not want to be the one making the case, as I have massive bias. I have been directing attention to him as nobody seems to be picking up on his loose play. In the absence of a case, I will likely make one, but I am busy and have other people I would like to pursue. If Corazon feels up to the task, this would be optimal from my perspective.
Mocsta, if you could reveal why you chose to make the OE thing an issue one hour before the lynch deadline instead of during Night 1. It's something I'd like to know.
On January 05 2013 11:23 cDgCorazon wrote: (1) We shouldn't forgive OE for mislynching, but we shouldn't crucify him for it either. However, I will be watching him a bit more closely from now on.
(2) On Mocsta's attack on OE: I feel like Mocsta was exaggerating a bit in his accusations by saying that OE had only talked about policy and fluff. I feel like this is too harsh on OE.
(3) The biggest issue I've had with it is the timing. One hour before the lynch? Was it that important to where it could have been saved for N1?
I shall respond.
Firstly, you don't like one of my actions over 48hrs. Do you think one action unwrites every other; is this how you intend to play the game? If you truly think all my other actions in this game have been scum-oriented, than your question obviously stands, and I have no qualms to answer.
But in all seriousness, if it is one action you have concerns about, you are doing several poor town plays (1) you are taking away attention from genuine suspects (2) wasting thread counts
Assuming you actually do think I have had scum motives for all my actions in this game.. the answers to your questions are as follows:
(1) I agree townies make mistakes, and shouldnt be crucified. Caveat: "Townie"... I have also noticed you have a very strong tendency to watch this game... similar behavior to what StriX wanted...
(2) OK, you think some areas are exaggerated; if you have doubts about my case, perhaps you should share with town and see if they perceive it the same way. I also don't see why you think policy talk is solid pro-town behaviour, but that is an outside-thread conversation.
Fair enough you think I am harsh; but instead of slapping me on the wrist.
Why don't you be constructive and try to point out the flaws in my logic.
(3) I have noticed you in particular have a tendency not to read my posts in their entirety, and call me out on things I have explained. If you are actually trying to say "hey Moctsa, your reasoning isn't up to scratch, please detail more" I will be like "sure Corazon, how are these ... blah blah blah... for you" instead, you just confuse the thread space, by asking me to repeat items already addressed.
Assuming you don't like my initial reasoning, what happened was.
Middle of Day 1, I was asking for scum reads. I said I would make my case 8hrs from lynch, so would hold off. Come ~10hrs from lynch, I was about to start doing my analysis on OmniEulogy (my top scum read), which is when TeMiL posted. His post was so utterly *insert expletive*I felt compelled to overrule my top scum read, and target him. The rational was simple, his vote can't be relied on, and he is a loose cannon (this was actually proven by his final vote). I posed a question to the coach(s) on theory crafting the situation. I woke up @ 6.30 (2hrs before lynch) and after reading the coach(s) feedback and your digs at me for voting TeMiL I decided to pursue Omni. To go through filter and make commetary takes time. im sorry it was unlaeshed 1hr before lynch.
In hindsight..I agree, it could have been handled better, but these things happen.
Now we need to find the flaws in my logic of Omni, discuss them, and see where to go from there.
On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote: I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
I am trying to discern why you say that switching my vote from TeMiL to you is bad play. I personally think it was fine, but I would like to hear your reasoning and not necessarily because I'm trying to out you as scum with your answer.
it wasn't necessarily about the vote coming off TeMiL, I feel its more about not explaining yourself and just throwing it out there. If you are willing to go over why you changed your vote using your own reasoning and not just because of Mocsta's post I'd feel a lot better about it.
I completely agree with Omni question. Your vote had 0 justification, you didnt even admit you were sheeping.
If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote.
If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes.
Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds.
Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game?
This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post.
His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way.
In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two).
TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same.
You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play.
Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain...
How frustrating.
Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum.
On January 05 2013 09:55 OmniEulogy wrote: I think TeMiL's case should be looked at during D2 and we need to put some serious attention on him. Get him to put down all his thoughts on what happened D1 during N1. We Need him to start contributing.
How convenient OE.
I havn't read the whole thread, but now know StriX was VT.
Cora /Spag better build some pressure/cases on you like that promised.
I am not going to let you target TeMiL to lower your suspicion.,
I know why you delayed your case on OE, but do you think that it was wise to post it right before the deadline? You had a choice to either pursue it late D1, or early N1. You chose to put it late in D1, where it could cause a lot of confusion, and certainly make for an interesting hour.
I have three theories as to why you made the choice. They are:
1. You are town, and truly feel like OE is scum. Wanted to get OE lynched early and get the town on a good start by lynching a scum.
2. You are scum, and wanted to attack OE, hoping that everyone would think that attacking OE = Defending StriX (which it really does not).
3. You are scum, and have noted the tendencies from XXXIII (because you have been making reads on others (myself included) because of XXXIII) for the town to switch onto a bandwagon really quickly in the latter parts of the day. Using this to get OE taken out D1 would help you out greatly, as you could keep pointing out what you said in your argument to defend yourself for mislynching and get a disorganized town to look away from you.
Please feel free to answer these possible theories while I work on what you have asked me to do.
On January 05 2013 12:31 OmniEulogy wrote: do you know how to post facts or only your personal opinions mocsta? So far this game its a severe letdown. Cora's been playing extremely well and I didn't even remotely come close to calling him scum did I? Get over yourself, Your opinions are not facts.
Nice attempt to get an emotional reaction out of me OmniEulogy.
Toadesstern is a wise coach obviously.
Where did I say you said Cora is scum..? You talk about posting facts, prove this then. As for your StriX case stinking majorly. I wish this was personal opinion OmniEulogy.. I really wish it was..
Unfortunately, your StriX case stinking.. was fact.. undeniable fact.
See here..http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=21#414
Go see point (9) Incase you are too lazy..
"The vote on StriX. Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking.. Seriosly Omni... future games you roll as town, you need to let it go man.... Justification regarding StriX->zarepath is weak, but passable as a town motivation.
Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification.
Weak overall, and lacking conviction.. Wait a sec, didnt my guide on scum hunting, suggest we don't call out early town reads, because mafia can easily do it because they arent lying... whereas, its hard for mafia to build a detailed case, because naturally they have to lie (to vote a townie)... hmmmm
its coming to gether.
SCREAMING SCUM!"
You know, between my case and the lynch I can excuse you for not reading the whole case. It was posted with (in due fairness [kind of]) limited time.
But between the lynch and now.. its inexcusable...
@OmniEulogy P.S i (and the remainder) of town still want an answer to my case.. point (8) Curiously you throw in Jampi as a slight town read.. you have had minimal interactions with this person, and he is the prime target for several others in the thread.. and in genearl his post count is lacking... I would love a detailed explanation on this one.
@Corazon My response to your second post was an attempt to lead you into Mocsta's honey pot. You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move.
On January 05 2013 11:19 Spaghetticus wrote: You took Mocsta's bait, but responded pretty will IMO. I think you ignored mine, which was also the right move.
Spaghetticus, you are constantly inserting my name and scum in the same sentences.
I am not going to bother inserting the posts, because I would run out of page space...(read through the filter search Mocsta, and it is evident)
If you have a problem with me, and the way I am operating.. Call me out directly, and make a case.
Otherwise, you are trying to influence individuals in a deceptive manner. I think everyone can agree that is NOT town-like.
(For the record, I don't even know what your "honey-pot" is referring to)
If I am doing this I am unaware. The post you quoted above, is actually me talking about your [b]TOWN[/b} behaviour. Let me explain:
The honeypot is a ploy where a town seduces a scum into revealing himself by making an obvious minor blunder. If someone tries to come in and inflate the minor mistake into a major one when this is outside your read on them, then you have likely found reason to suspect them. A mafia wants to put emphasis on irrelevant or clumsily executed arguments, rather than ones that actually contribute to catching them.
If this style sounds familiar, that is because I claimed this exact ploy earlier when explaining my 'slip'. My honeypot was more improvisation than anything, as I actually wanted to know about the mafia QT, but it was a honeypot none the less.
Note: honeypot is my word for it, I like to use flowery language. There is probably a canon phrase for this maneuver in the guides, but I do not know it.
I have noticed several times that you make seemingly deliberate mistakes using yourself as bait, for presumably this reason. I identified your crude 100% read to be exactly that: an invitation for deliberate misinterpretation. Seeing Corazon being reasonable about it, I decided to rebait the trap to see if I could get a read, but this also failed.
As you can now see, the post you used to represent your read of me being a peripheral pathway scum marketer is a misinterpretation. I have no intention of attacking you pre-day two as I know there is no point. I will admit that I want people to keep in mind that while you are a strong town read, you are NOT confirmed town. Your approach is so systematic that it is my opinion that, like myself, you decide on your playstyle before you receive your role. This makes a good town but also a resilient mafia. I am not implying I have a scum read on you, I am saying that your play would be very similar regardless of whether you were mafia or town, which means we should not be too hasty in giving you a positive town read despite your obvious contributions.
I just F5ed and realised you'd made a remark on Syl's analysis, claiming it is not OC. I will now go check this.
On January 05 2013 09:55 OmniEulogy wrote: I think TeMiL's case should be looked at during D2 and we need to put some serious attention on him. Get him to put down all his thoughts on what happened D1 during N1. We Need him to start contributing.
How convenient OE.
I havn't read the whole thread, but now know StriX was VT.
Cora /Spag better build some pressure/cases on you like that promised.
I am not going to let you target TeMiL to lower your suspicion.,
I should add that I'm not targeting TeMiL as a scum suspect. I asked him those questions to get him to contribute. I believe trying to figure out what he is atm is useless. Maybe after he answers those questions we'll be able to have some sort of read but I'm not getting my hopes up. Just Keep thinking what you will though.
On January 05 2013 12:54 cDgCorazon wrote: I know why you delayed your case on OE, but do you think that it was wise to post it right before the deadline? You had a choice to either pursue it late D1, or early N1. You chose to put it late in D1, where it could cause a lot of confusion, and certainly make for an interesting hour.
I have three theories as to why you made the choice. They are:
1. You are town, and truly feel like OE is scum. Wanted to get OE lynched early and get the town on a good start by lynching a scum.
2. You are scum, and wanted to attack OE, hoping that everyone would think that attacking OE = Defending StriX (which it really does not).
3. You are scum, and have noted the tendencies from XXXIII (because you have been making reads on others (myself included) because of XXXIII) for the town to switch onto a bandwagon really quickly in the latter parts of the day. Using this to get OE taken out D1 would help you out greatly, as you could keep pointing out what you said in your argument to defend yourself for mislynching and get a disorganized town to look away from you.
Please feel free to answer these possible theories while I work on what you have asked me to do.
I am heading out after this response.
I suggest you post your reads to the coaches, I think they will advise you are theory crafting too hard..
Answering your questions. (1) Agreed. Move on.
(2) I think this is pointless to be honest.StriX was town, and had majority, which is scum agenda. Why would I jeapardise that and put myself in the limelight. Again, you dont like one of my actoins.. why dont you comment on my behaviour teh whole game and tell me you if that scum behaviuor in general.
I thnk its obvious I post ab-lib and do not proof-read... dont you think natural behaviour comes out that way.. have a think about that.
(3) Man.. I had a reason at the start to talk about Newbie33.. but if you noticed I havnt done it since the first 12 hours. I am sorry the vote for 24hrs has plagued you, perhaps I would try a different approach next game. If i may say one thing about Newbie 33.. at the end game.
Hapa said to Cakepie.. you are making this too complicated. The game is simple, find scum,and lynch them.
You are makign this too complicated.. Yes it would be awesome if I was a mastermind mafia,.. but I am an ab-lib poster...and I think time woudl be best spent elsewhere.
[i.e. have a think about who hasn't responded to the Day1 lynch..]
So this doesnt get lost.. because to me this is critical.
@OmniEulogy
On January 05 2013 13:00 Mocsta wrote: @OmniEulogy i (and the remainder) of town still want an answer to my case.. point (8)
Curiously you throw in Jampi as a slight town read.. you have had minimal interactions with this person, and he is the prime target for several others in the thread.. and in genearl his post count is lacking... I would love a detailed explanation on this one.
I was comparing him to the other players in question at that point in time. StriX, Syl, Zare, and TeMiL. I felt that his contribution had been much greater with an equal post count to StriX and I was giving him some benefit due to his country the same as what we've done for TeMiL to a certain extent. He's in the middle in terms of time zones, I think it would be difficult to really be able to hit peak time to communicate with us regularly.
On January 04 2013 12:32 OmniEulogy wrote: Talkative bunch. Alright... Vote: Zarepath you left us with a nice case on syl, I don't agree with most of it but it was a decent case and he responded to it very well. However you left right after ruining the chance of any immediate conversation that might have stemmed from it. Your position on a no-lynch is a factor in my vote as well, it just isn't a town mindset. Also claiming that a no-lynch vote is not even at play any more is a bad attempt to bury something that is very much a factor in how D1 plays out. Again not a town mindset.
You attack Sylencia largely on ideas that promote strong town behavior like his willingness to lynch lurkers in certain situations but otherwise always going for his scum reads. Almost everything you said about him applies to yourself in terms of posting, in which he is ahead in terms of quality and quantity.
##FoS: Strix lack of everything from you so far. You are a close second to Zare.
@Everybody What do you think about the case made against Syl? How do you feel about Mocsta leading discussion and his vote on Cora? How do you feel Cora responded to the vote. How has he given himself any credibility as town afterwards. (Cora please feel free to answer this one as well)
And lastly in answer to asking if making a contributions list if town vs scum it could be either. We had Shz in NMM XXXIII attempt a similar thing as VT and I've watched mafia players pretend to contribute by doing the same thing in other games. The point to be made aware of is that Mocsta has also lead discussions and is not ONLY making those posts.
(3) Your vote starts off as a disagreement of zarepath case to Sylencia. You then change gears and bring the justification back to policy. Sounds to me, your deadset on a bullshit reason to lynch this guy. i.e. policy dispute... The question is, are you that prejudice against LAL policy, you would pursue that as your top scum read... OR... do you vote for the policy because of your prejudice, which allows you to vote with conviction.. an important trait as mafia.
I find it further curious that you make a vote, and then post a FoS.. Lets say you believe it, you know from Newbie 33 lessons learned, not to make association cases. I think this is a nice attempt to follow/start a bandwagon on StriX, and give your self a lurker bait out with StriX.. in reality at that point in time it could have been Strix, TeMiL, jampidampi; I think you randomly chose StriX.
This is the first part of your argument I have a problem with. You're saying here (I've cut out the last part because it does not pertain to what I am about to say) that OE's post basically is saying that he disagrees with Zare on his read of Syl and that the only other reason that he is voting for Zare is because he believes in voting no-lynch. However, you must have missed the middle part of his accusation, where he says:
You attack Sylencia largely on ideas that promote strong town behavior like his willingness to lynch lurkers in certain situations but otherwise always going for his scum reads. Almost everything you said about him applies to yourself in terms of posting, in which he is ahead in terms of quality and quantity.
He's accusing Zare of attacking Syl for the wrong reasons, and of being hypocritical in his accusations of Syl. If you read between the lines, I think he was suspicious of this because it was a weak case, and scum tend to make weak cases (because they have to fabricate lies, which is hard to do when you're only basing things off of half a day's worth of play). So attacking this post as fluff and policy just is not true.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Unvote: Zarepath given the three/four pages I need to catch up in and what I have read so far I don't believe my vote should still rest on Zare for this lynch. I think he has now contributed more than several others and it would be worse for town to lose him at this moment. I think TeMiL is just really bad town so I wont be voting for him either. I'll have a longer post written up shortly.
Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
(7) Interesting. The justification is quite weak to remove the vote.. He has contributed? big whoop, this is a piss poor attempt to move onto another target. You are admitting here your actual vote justification was weak, or even just sheeping. Again, how does that help town win? You never post your write-up either... I am on the thread 3-4hrs later, and its not there, what we get is a summary.
[/spoiler]
If you're expecting OE to find all of the scum D1, you're crazy. You can't expect him to be right on every vote. Sometimes, when people are pressured, they step up their game, and OE thought that Zare had stepped up, and decided that there were better targets to pursue that Zare.
Of course, you don't like pressure votes, do you?
No such thing as official pressure vote. A vote is the intention to lynch. Treat it that way. (at least publically)
So if we are all heeding your advice, you have intended to have me, TeMiL, and OE lynched. Aren't you guilty of switching votes as well?
(9) The vote on StriX. Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking.. Seriosly Omni... future games you roll as town, you need to let it go man.... Justification regarding StriX->zarepath is weak, but passable as a town motivation.
Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification.
Weak overall, and lacking conviction.. Wait a sec, didnt my guide on scum hunting, suggest we don't call out early town reads, because mafia can easily do it because they arent lying... whereas, its hard for mafia to build a detailed case, because naturally they have to lie (to vote a townie)... hmmmm
its coming to gether.
SCREAMING SCUM! Omni has approximately 30 posts. I have chosen to pass through 9 key posts. Maybe some in general read null. But if you take all the 9 posts as a sum of contributions.. the result is zilch. Its all fluff revolving around policy, and copy/paste <insert participant post>.
This screams of scum play to me, and if you are not voting Omni, you better have a damn good reason not to.
This is the part that I have the most problems with. You say that his accusations of StriX are just copy and paste, along with some policy talk. If that was the case, no one would have voted for StriX, and someone else would have died. However, 3 people agreed with him. This means that his accusations were more than copy and paste + policy. You cannot just accuse him of not contributing, because that's entirely false.
The last part I have a problem with is the last line:
This screams of scum play to me, and if you are not voting Omni, you better have a damn good reason not to.
You simply cannot do this if you are town. You're boxing everyone who does not vote for OE into the "anti-town" section, and everyone who does into the "pro-town" section. You're basically saying, "vote OE, or else you are scum and I will make a case against you". If you think that everyone who did not vote for OE is scum, please go ahead and make that case (seeing as TeMiL is 100% town to you, that makes 5/8 people here suspicious to you for not voting OE).
I agree with some of your points, but there are others which need to be fixed if you want to convince me OE is scum. I'm not shut out to the idea, I just think that you need to make a full case instead of half a case, and the rest exaggerations. I believe that over time, you can find more scummy things on OE, and at the point you wish to share your thoughts on him again, I would be happy to read them over and point out where I disagree. Just next time, don't do it an hour before the lynch.
@Mocsta and Syl I was intending on doing a play by play, but I now think it unnecessary and largely irrelevant. Mocsta you are correct in that what Syl said had already been largely covered by you. He was able to take your broad strokes and turn them into a precise analysis that actually influenced my thought patters. This is the first time this game that I have had to really rethink my approach because I thought someone else had done a better job at thinking than me. Further still, despite the strength of his communication, he still managed to under appreciate his own arguments. A scum tries to emphasise his points beyond their relevance, Syl did not do this, preferring a quiet analysis. Mocsta your playstyle is overwhelmingly enthusiastic, but this means you tend to only communicate your reads on a comparatively shallow level (this is not a bad thing, you’re still extremely pro-town). Syl has managed to take your initial read, and developed it beyond what you communicated, which is pro-town. He also went into scenarios of where TeMiL was an effective scum, when before this scenario was presumed a non-issue. While I was silly to attribute the entire post as OC, I stand by this post giving a pro-town vibe. I am sorry for not recognising your contribution, though quite frankly I think this is no longer in question.
Okay so guys, we need analysis of the events leading up to the mislynch on Styx. This will require a lot of groundwork, but anyone that complies will be taking a very large step in confirming themselves as town.
I had a quick read backwards, and it looks like posts relevant to the lynch start on page 17 with Dandel Ion's vote count.
Not voting (5): cDgCorazon, zarepath, Spaghetticus, TeMiL, Mocsta
Currently, zarepath is set to be lynched! 12 hours 20 minutes remaining in day 1. Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
As you can see, only preliminary votes are present, and shortly afterwards shit gets real with three vote changes on the same page, including Mocsta's big post on TeMiL. The lynch on Stix is completed on page 23, so that's seven pages to analyse. The current most townie players have all done far more than this, it is not that big of an ask. I would ask that Corazon, Mocsta, and myself do not contribute our analysis until everyone has had a chance. We have already provided enough contribution to not be called scummy for holding back our reads, we need to give an opportunity for others to do the same. That means we want to see analysis from:-
- Jamp
- Syl
- Omni
- Zare
Day two cases will be based on this analysis, it is of utmost importance. On top of holding back your analysis, I want Corazon, mocsta, and myself to prepare wills before the upcoming NK. We have a 50% chance of there actually being a JK, then that JK has to correctly identify the scum that will carry out the NK without being roleblocked. One of us dies tonight. With the information available to me I expect it to be Mocsta, but scum have more information to work with and could find any number of reasons to NK Corazon or myself. These wills ARE a big ask, as they need to be submitted very close to the deadline so a s not to influence the NK, and need to provide info on why you think you got lynched, and any scum reads you have been keeping to yourself.
Everything TeMiL has contributed has only served to clutter up the thread. I have not seen him post a single thing that I consider even vaguely relevant, and so expect his future posts to be the same.
I hold nothing against TeMiL, he is in over his head. Once he has a better mastery of the language I think Mafia would be a great game for him to play. Until that day, he will only confuse threads and weaken town. I am not interested in anything he has to say, as, unlike a more typical lurker, I believe he does not actually possess the capacity to meaningfully contribute, thus, I do not encourage him to contribute.
That was poorly written but you get the point. If TeMiL is lynched it won't be as a result of a scumtell, it will pretty much be a policy lynch based on the balance of probabilities of a categorically useless player damaging town more than a more mundane scum read or lurker lynch.
Just to confirm, you want me to post analysis on what happened between the two vote counts? I'll get started on that soon, once I settle down again, but it won't be for another couple of hours at least as I have a few things to finish.
Corazon, thanks for taking the time to give me feedback. Much appreciated.
Been out all day, so able to look at this with a fresh perspective.
I have read through your comments: overall, I agree with a few points, and contest others.
Ultimately, we will never know why OmniEulogy posted what he did - only he will know. Thus, we can only make educated assumptions. I think your arguments against me are due to deviating interpretation of events, rather than flawed reasoning.
I have one further question I would like to direct:
@Spaghetticus You seems to have acted in a way that would allow to you to jump on any bandwagon on a lurker without atracting too much atention. I will go through your filter later today, but so far you seems very suspicious. And this
On January 05 2013 10:50 Spaghetticus wrote: I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves.
seems scummy. Not giving information away is suspicious. Could you straight up tell me why you voted on StriX?
@Mocsta
On January 05 2013 09:35 Mocsta wrote: when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
You seem very sure that StriX would flip town. Would you mind giving your reasonings to this? Did you have a townread on him and what in his play made him look like town to you?
@zarepath
On January 05 2013 04:39 zarepath wrote: I am working on a long post of my own.
On January 05 2013 10:32 zarepath wrote: Another thing to look at is the fact that as soon as Moc put up his analysis, the four following votes happened:
I switched from TeMiL to OE. Spag switched from TeMiL to StriX (after my vote) Sylencia did NOT switch to either OE or StriX; he was obviously paying attention to the thread (he kept posting), but felt no need to push the dial one way or the other even when a single vote for either of the two (StriX and OE) would have made a large difference. Instead he remained on a person who was almost assuredly not going to be lynched. TeMiL votes for jampidampi for no discernible reason.
Spag's vote is a direct declaration for StriX over OE or jampidampi, and does not hold at all to his LAL policy he's been harping about all day. I will have to check the filter (chaotic two hours and I was in and out), but I don't recall his explanation for that.
Sylencia and TeMiL's votes, however, are indirect assurances of StriX being guilty over OE without having to say as much. They didn't reiterate strong cases for jampidampi or try to argue anyone else into also voting for jampidampi.
I am bringing this back to attention.
Sylencia since you are here, what are your thoughts on the feedback zarepath has issued?
On January 05 2013 09:35 Mocsta wrote: when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
You seem very sure that StriX would flip town. Would you mind giving your reasonings to this? Did you have a townread on him and what in his play made him look like town to you?
I had a null read on StriX. Certainly not scum in my opinion, which was why i refused to vote him.
I personally didnt like his requests.. BUT.. in newbie 33 there were other townies who voiced the same requests StriX.. (I am referring to medic to my marine Spag)... so I gave StriX some dispensation (based on my past experiences).
Seriously.. though Spag was wrong in Newbie 33, he said one thign that has struck a chord in me, and has changed the way I think about situations with lynches.
If there is no contest, the mafia must typically be satisfied. (Spag was wrong, because in that scenario the mafia actually gave up, hence the lack of fight).
With the discussions on Day 1, there was no certainty... why did StriX go with such ease.
To me, it was obvious he was not mafia.
What is unfortunate was my choice of actions, I clouded the thread, and I do regret that and in hindsight I would have kept my vote on TeMiL.
I don't blame Corazon for calling me out, frankly, I would have done the same.
I took a chance in a non-predicated scenario, it didnt pay off. I/We have to move on.
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
(1) I honestly don't know. Most of today has been me defending myself (an absolute waste of thread space), so I haven't been able to keep up to date with thread status quo.
(2) I think he has been pressured enough, I made my case to his posts, Corazon disagrees with some.
For you, You said numerous times you are not a lurker, you a person of few posts, but high quality posts to make up for it.
Your summary post identifies 38 key posts out ~ 100, and only 3 questions have been formulated.
Anyone can do a summary post (yse I appreciate the links you added though)... I think your 3 questions are quality indeed, but I want to know why you are avoiding addressing anything to OmniEulogy.
As I was getting my long post ready, I determined my case wasn't strong enough and decided against it; also, there were some issues of time that I didn't foresee.
I don't know where it went wrong, but, this town environment is really lacking at the moment. Maybe its my fault, but the amount of inactivity is a mafias dream.
Day2, town really needs to step up the activity. Town needs to start finding flaws in peoples cases (regardless of whether I agreed with Corazon comments... him breaking my case down IS SOLID town play.. we need more of this)
(3) The following are suggestions I hope town considers for Day 2 play.
Overall I like the way you are playing, and its good you called me out. That was a completely sound play.
The only thing I will say to you regarding the above is.. Towards the end, I think you were blinded by my actions and begun to tunnel me.
Because I think you are a critical component of this game, I tried my best to answer your questions with respect (but I REALLY wanted to just tell you to fuck off).
I am telling you this because for Day2, town REALLY will need your pragmatic approach to continue.
I think you have been playing this game with great intelligence. I think your positions have been well considered, and in most occasions well justified. We need more of this heading forward with Day 2.
If I may, I ask that you follow up on Spaghetticus. I think we are picking up on the same sub text as per one of your first posts.
With regards to my pressure on Spag, I am confused by his words and by his actions. By mentioning conflicting views on certain issues, it means that there's possibly something more behind his game plan. If he's not being honest, it's not benefiting town at all.
I would love to supply the posts I think are odd.. but.. that might open too many WIFOM excuses.
I have reviewed your filter post Day1 lynch. (1) I am stuck with you. I don't think my case had confirmation bias (unfortunately only Corazon has commented). The problem is, on a re-read, and considering content since the case.. I do find some material to be incredibly town motivated.
(2) In your defense against my case, you stated I don't like your thought process. Perhaps this is true, and it is precisely why I ask the below of you.
I would appreciate your thoughts on Spaghetticus. Is it just me who sees odd, eratic, and confusing behaviour?
OK. you have the biggest filter.. and so what.. In my opinion the quality is lacking, and the content convoluted. I find many of your posts wishy-washy and confusing. I also find your behaviour during end of Day1 all over the place.
For a person who prides himself on analytical, controlled play; you were very erratic. Completely uncharacteristic.
Then, there is this post...
On January 05 2013 03:53 Spaghetticus wrote: @OmniEulogy I get a scum read off you... but...
I am not going to pursue you if I can help it. Your process is so alien to me I can't really fathom your motives. I would like other people to apply scrutiny while I look elsewhere. I just can't see you as not scum, but this was true in XXXIII and you flipped town. Please people, before you attribute a scumbuddy relationship here... ... ... ... this is too high profile and obvious. My contribution will be substantial elsewhere, I genuinely feel my objectivity is compromised entirely when dealing with Omni. This is town motivated and too bold a risk for too little a reward to be a scum ploy. I have reasonable town motive, I don't want this post to haunt me.
How is this town motivated when you followed up by unvoting TeMiL and voting StriX.. its clear in your filter to see.
I still stand by what I said to Sylencia. I think your play has been "in your own way" aligned with town principles.
We need you to step up though, interact more, contribute more. I know it feels good to sit back and soak in the thread, and hopefully someone makes a compelling point. But with the lack of activity currently, more town players need to step up and contribute.
One of your last posts calls out two lurkers. jampi and TiMeL.
I ask that you develop these relationships further in Day2.
You confuse me the same as OmniEulogy. Some things are helpful, others are pointless. How to interpret you..
I think town would get a better sense of your alignment if you continued your conversations with Sylencia. This is not intended to head towards OMGUS, moreso, zarepath raised curious points about Sylencia voting tendencies. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=25#482 Do you think this is worth exploring further?
Honestly, I don't even know if you will read this. If you are mafia, well done. If I didnt have a meta, I would def try to play the way you have. People thought my 1hr vote was murky, but your post out of no where was even worse. That truly fucked up the thought process.
On the off chance you are town, I ask that you try to vote in Day 2 earlier, to at least give the others a chance to adjust.
Alright, I'm finally back and analysing the posts made. What I have done is taken out the interesting parts that are related to the Strix vote and given my thoughts on the reasoning behind them when possible. (Not everything I mention leads back to the Strix vote, some things are just other things I noticed)
Firstly, we have Strix's unvote, which comes after his defense of jampi, and saying that his vote on Temil was based on a pressure play. To the majority of the group, it looked like a scummy move because he was trying to possibly rectify his mistake, but I think he felt pressured to take it off so that is what he did.
Jampi says his vote will not change because of his read on Strix, this is due to the lack of town motive behind it. When I asked jampi about this first though, I was under the impression that this post didn't make for a case against him because it didn't actually say he was scum, and could actually be town motivated.
Mocsta makes a big case against having Temil around. A lot of it is quite logical, but having it done day 1 over someone else seemed to me like a non-standard choice, since it wasn't so much scum hunting as kicking someone from the game. Doing an analysis on posting this now, given we know what happened afterwards also makes me wonder why it needed to be brought up in the first place. Having suspected OE (as stated in the future post) before going to bed, why was he encouraging us to vote for someone then try to get us all to change later? (I have a feeling I know the answer to this, but if Mocsta, you would like to elaborate that would be great)
Next page (Pg. 18)
Starts off with the conclusion of what would be the Temil-country theory.
Interestingly enough, Spag decides to move against what he had said before of "I will vote for the lurkiest player", to one of the other two lurkers. The reason for possibly changing to Strix is given, but at that point in time, the reasoning for moving away from Temil was not (convoluted, possibly).
Jampi makes a post after Mocsta has left, explaining the reasoning behind his low quantity of posts. This is mostly done in response to Spag's potential vote change.
Page 19
Spag's reasoning for not voting for Temil are given here, but despite the negativity given in the post, to me this confuses me as to why he might not be voted for.
At this point in time, Corazon deters more people from voting Temil by saying they would be lazy in doing so. This is what I think lead to the slow beginning into shifting forces onto Strix. With people who did not vote Temil yet being pre-emptively called out for it, they would have to find another avenue to go down. At this point it was likely to be one of the other two lurkers - jampi and Strix. Strix was a lot easier target simply because there was possible scum motivation behind his words and lack of contribution.
Interesting thing to note is the Unvote happening from Omni at this point in time. With tides turning towards others in the votes, the only explanation given is that he felt Zare had contributed more. This is while still being 3-4 pages behind in the posts, which is weird - because he didn't know what was next. It was a very random unvote in my eyes.
Page 20.
Despite saying he wants to see Strix hang around till Day 2, and that everyone except Zare should not be voted, it is decided that Strix would be voted for due to his lack of insightful posts which I guess I am partly to blame for for making people expect it (since that was the description I gave for his usual play) However, it is odd that there is a backtrack in the statements so quickly.
His explanation on his vote for Strix then says he is OE's top scum read. If Strix was your top scum read, why did you say you wanted to leave him till day 2? I'm not sure what I am to make of this change of heart and decision to vote Strix. Going back to the point I made earlier about Corazon's post, I feel this might have come into play regarding the decision to vote for him. Since I don't think he was ready to make a case against one of the more active players, I think in the case the 'don't vote temil if you're not lazy' post was not made, Temil would've been the target of OE's vote.
Zare targets temil for his first vote, for a few reasons given by Mocsta, and the idea of having temil replaced not being a good idea is fair enough.
Page 21.
I think when Strix posts at the start of the day, he ends up burying himself further, since he admits he won't be contributing anything in terms of long analysis for the rest of the day (with 2 hours left) and what looked to be a deflection onto OE.
At the point Dandel Ion makes the 1 hour remaining vote count, I think all the foundations that were setup for Strix to make the fall were made. He had people already suspecting him, he did not improve his case the next day and there was already a hint from Mocsta stating he would be moving his votes. The post after this would be the be start of the vote shift which eventually lead to Strix's mislynch.
With the Temil train quickly derailing, Mocsta's post served as a catalyst for those on board it to quickly move to another target. He made a post about OE, and changed his vote to him, and we then had Zare quietly follow up with a second vote quickly.
Spag, being the only one left of Temil, decided it would be better to move onto Strix, as he had said the previous night.
Corazon, being the fourth vote on Strix, decided on it due to the case made by OE. With another convinced, and what I now realise to be a lack of defense made by Strix, he was set to be lynched.
I choose not to change my vote, which may have had an impact on who got eliminated due to Temil's vote coming out of nowhere. Why I did not change is answered at the end, since I think I saw it was a question I was asked.
--
Overall, there were a few reasons why I think that this lynch happened:
- People were deterred from voting for Temil after Corazon's explicit message saying that people were lazy to vote for Temil. - Omni's choice of lynch was technically the 3rd to do so, and it was noted by Strix himself that it was quite a bandwagoning, due to the weird set of statements he had made just before voting for Strix. - Strix did not defend himself from the second case against (OE's case against him) and it did not help his cause whatsoever. His actions during the last few hours were also quite suspicious when read, and that may have been the tipping point for the fourth vote from Corazon.
Unfortunately for me, this analysis I made turned out a lot poorer than I expected, maybe due to the time of night I ended up starting this, maybe I didn't have as much to say as I thought I did, but I tried doing it the way.
On January 05 2013 10:32 zarepath wrote: Another thing to look at is the fact that as soon as Moc put up his analysis, the four following votes happened:
I switched from TeMiL to OE. Spag switched from TeMiL to StriX (after my vote) Sylencia did NOT switch to either OE or StriX; he was obviously paying attention to the thread (he kept posting), but felt no need to push the dial one way or the other even when a single vote for either of the two (StriX and OE) would have made a large difference. Instead he remained on a person who was almost assuredly not going to be lynched. TeMiL votes for jampidampi for no discernible reason.
Spag's vote is a direct declaration for StriX over OE or jampidampi, and does not hold at all to his LAL policy he's been harping about all day. I will have to check the filter (chaotic two hours and I was in and out), but I don't recall his explanation for that.
Sylencia and TeMiL's votes, however, are indirect assurances of StriX being guilty over OE without having to say as much. They didn't reiterate strong cases for jampidampi or try to argue anyone else into also voting for jampidampi.
I am bringing this back to attention.
Sylencia since you are here, what are your thoughts on the feedback zarepath has issued?
I can only speak for myself obviously, but at the time I was not completely satisfied with the response given by jampi regarding what I had asked him. I have explained it further in a past post.
My thoughts on OE were at the time not exactly very well set in stone. I had not completely read through the post that Mocsta had written, and I wasn't going to bandwagon onto it just because others were. My read on Strix was still fairly null before the last hours of day 1, maybe partly due to some bias of my knowledge of how he behaves in real life, and how he plays these games in real life, I didn't see anything that deviated from what he normally did anyways when he played either side.
So the decision I was made to make was a fairly null read vs. a sudden case against someone who I had not looked deeply into with about half an hour or so to choose. Thus, voting for either of them would be a pretty stupid decision I think and so I chose to stick with the person I had suspected from the night before and stuck with it.
Just woke up, Before I go through everything and write up a large response to everything, if anybody is here and would like to discuss anything, I believe town atm is Mocsta, Spag, Cora, Syl, and myself. This leaves Zare, Jampi, and TeMiL who I don't have reads for and I believe it is most likely we would find scum in one, and if TeMiL is scum possibly two of them.
If anybody is around while I am writing I'll be refreshing this page periodically for the next few hours.
Hey guys, I only have a little time before I got to work, but I just want to share a couple of quick opinions for you guys:
1. I'm glad both jampi and Syl both had analysis on the crazy ending to D1, but Syl's analysis is a lot more in-depth than Jampi's, who is more of a summary with a few questions attached. While I wish Jampi could have posted a little bit more analysis, I think we can use the two together to investigate the crazy ending. Well done you two.
2. Now that I've had the time to think about it, the OE bandwagon did not really go anywhere. It was Mocsta (who made the original case), StriX (who simply did not want to die), and Zare (who has not given any reason for it). Just some food for thought.
3. Zare, keeping your opinions from the town is the scummiest thing you can do, outside of saying you are scum (but of course, you might not get voted off for that =P). I don't believe for a second your reasoning for not giving a reason for your vote. Tell us why you voted for OE, even if that means rewriting the case and showing it to us. Take it as "do it, or else I will vote for you the first minute of D2".
Anyways, I'll come back from work in a few hours, and then I will be able to join the discussion and post my "last will" right at the buzzer.
ah to Answer your question to me about Spag Mocsta, I'm not really sure how to take Spags approach to this game. It's much different to the only other game I've played with him. I see him as town, although the only game I played with him where he was town his behavior was completely different. He still hasn't explained why he made the switch to StriX over myself as he claimed a few times he saw me as scummy,
On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote: I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.
This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.
It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim.
I bolded what I found odd. Would a town Spag want us to waste time on him when he knows he is town? Would he not try and prove to us that he is town by his previous actions at this point and say that he was removed because he believes he has given us a good indication that he is town because of (x) reason. I'm not sure if I like him saying "if I flip scum ignore me". He should know if he will flip scum or not. As a townie I would have said "If I get lynched and when I flip town I hope you believe me". What he has said almost seems like a difference in how you think when you are pretending to be something and when you actually are. However I believe I'm over-analyzing it.
Alright, so my thoughts on the lead-up to the vote, how people reacted, and what it could mean.
I'll start off by trying to be as straight forward as possible. When I said I would like to see StriX in D2, I meant that because of the reputation that had been given to him, I expected some good analytical points to come out from him and never did. He was my top scum read and stayed that way until he flipped town. I have said multiple times I would not vote for TeMiL, if I wasn't voting for StriX my vote would have gone on Zare.
Things that bother me during and after the voting stage
First off the lack of some votes being explained is concerning. Zare and Spag both switched their votes without explaining why they were voting the way they were. They didn't post reasons for not voting for the others or try to convince people to lynch their target. Zare simply voted for me and left, promising an explanation that never came. Spag gave some lead up for why he would vote for StriX but I'd like to hear it again from him in more detail. Was it just a lurker lynch?
Jampi had left prior to the vote but did not strengthen what he believed to be a weak case against StriX and had plenty of time to do so. He actually has barely said anything about the subject and even in his summary it is just a post about the chronological order of how things happened. It's helpful for sure but has no new information and very few of his own thoughts are presented. His last post has been
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
Mocsta made a MONSTER of a case against me, even if I don't like it the amount of time he spent on it and the amount of time I had to spend addressing it were quite large. I believe asking him to pressure me more is scummy. I would have welcomed it if YOU had pressured me for answers, but why make Mocsta continue while you sit back and continue to lurk? This has just made you my top scum read at the moment. You made a weak case against a now confirmed townie, did not pursue it but instead let me and others pressure him further, and now that he got lynched you try to deflect the entire thing onto me? scum play.
@Mocsta This was my thought process behind the case you made against me. StriX was scum in my mind with an hour left, you made a large case on me to try and flip the votes around, I believed you were possibly scum who had convinced everybody that you were town and this was your case to save your scum mate. It would have made sense considering you had only voted for TeMiL up to that point which was an extremely safe move, and most of your contribution has been in getting town to talk to eachother (which is also what gives you a strong town read). I wouldn't put it over you to be scum and controlling town though. Think of it as a compliment in a way. I no longer believe that you can be scum and I believe that you are the strongest town player we have at the moment. As you clearly tried to save a townie by making a case against somebody you believe (incorrectly I might add) to be scum. Fair play and I welcome it as we continue through this game. Your case was also why I would have disagreed that scum did not try to intervene with the vote, I was also worried that if you were town and 1 scum was on myself and the other being StriX, you would have given him the perfect excuse to change his votes during the last moments.
I don't have much to say on Cora, the difference in this game and the last blows my mind, confirmed town.
Syl's play reminds me of his town game in NMM XXXIII as well. I could never get a good read on him and I'm having difficulties this game as well. @Syl To answer your question about StriX, I really wanted to see what he would bring to the table, but after my mistake in XXXIII I didn't want to change my vote because of somebody elses case. I ended up missing a scum lynch D1 because of it and got Spag killed. I wanted to try to avoid that and stick with my own top scum read this game. Unfortunately I made a mistake.
Okay, just caught up on sleep. Hopefully I can write things without sounding like a retard now.
Some quick notes:
- Someone said I made a lot of last minute FoS, which is scummy. This is true, sort of. I called out a lot of people that I thought were not contributing as much as they should, but these callouts were urging them to contribute for a strong day two (at least some of them). I was not posting suspicion so much as I was pressuring for activity.
- The Analysis by Syl was great. Jamp was broad strokes, and I would like to hear more specific reads, but this is a good start and I appreciate it. Omni your effort is appreciated, but I have at least one major criticism which I will get to soon, I have a lot of requests I must attend to.
- Am I right in thinking Zare is yet to post analysis?
This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess.
I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever. When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options:
- vote StriX
- vote Omni
- vote Jamp
As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX.
Do you think my case on OmniEulogy was dredged with "confirmation bias" aka tunnel syndrome?
Before I answer this, can I ask you a question?
How did you go about making his case? Did you read his filter and analyze the posts you put in question when you got to that post? Or did you read all of his filter first, and then go back and pick out posts to criticize?
@TeMiL I know we have been sort of rude to you, and your fun factor is being compromised as a result. I don’t expect you to comply with this request, but I’m going to ask anyway on the off-chance you are profoundly reasonable.
Your vote, regardless of your alignment, is scaring the shit out of town, because it is unjustified and seems almost entirely random. If you do not vote, you will be mod-killed, but if you do vote, you could potentially screw town over. I implore you to vote for a no-lynch, allowing the rest of town to do their thing, and stopping you from being banned from this site.
On January 06 2013 06:04 Spaghetticus wrote: If someone receives a jailed notification, can they differentiate that from a roleblock notification?
No
On January 06 2013 06:25 Spaghetticus wrote: @TeMiL I know we have been sort of rude to you, and your fun factor is being compromised as a result. I don’t expect you to comply with this request, but I’m going to ask anyway on the off-chance you are profoundly reasonable.
Your vote, regardless of your alignment, is scaring the shit out of town, because it is unjustified and seems almost entirely random. If you do not vote, you will be mod-killed, but if you do vote, you could potentially screw town over. I implore you to vote for a no-lynch, allowing the rest of town to do their thing, and stopping you from being banned from this site.
You do not decide bans, so stop threatening them. Consider this a warning to all of you.
@Mocsta & Corazon You will want to present your analysis before night actions are executed, along with your wills. This is the deadline for Zare to post his analysis as well, because we do not want him benefiting from the analysis of current town leadership.
On January 06 2013 07:42 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta & Corazon You will want to present your analysis before night actions are executed, along with your wills. This is the deadline for Zare to post his analysis as well, because we do not want him benefiting from the analysis of current town leadership.
I'm working on it right now. I want to post it as close to the deadline as possible so as to not affect the scum's decision on the NK.
I would say (unless I have to go somewhere), that I will post my analysis/will 5 minutes before the deadline.
On January 06 2013 07:50 Spaghetticus wrote: Cool, I just finished my analysis, and need to iron out the bumps in my will. I'm glad to see signs of human life.
I've been reading the thread still, and I just want to point this out:
I believe Mocsta (please correct me if I'm wrong) has said that I've been doing a lot of watching, and I won't deny that. However, I don't think it should be looked into that much. In real life, I'm a quiet person. I think the same applies to the game. I've never been one to talk (unless it's around my friends) unless I have something to say. However, when I feel like I have something to say differs from when someone feels like I should have something to say.
I would just like it to be known: I don't say anything unless I have something to say. Don't mistake it for lurking.
I've been MIA since the deadline last night as I've spent all day today selling and buying a car. I'd had a read on OE for most of Day 1 but didn't have the time/energy to put it into a post; let's just say I was suspecting him, and when Mocsta made the case it aligned with what I'd seen and decided to switch so that Mocsta's suspicion may end up meaning something. This also led to a last minute shuffling of votes, which reveals a lot of information, imo.
I know this sucks but I honestly will be totally MIA tomorrow -- I have a lot of Sunday commitments and will thus miss the entire first half of Day 2. I promise to catch up on everything Monday and be fully participatory for the remainder of Day 2.
So I'm certainly responsible for a lacking discussion environment right now, and I"m sorry for that, but unavoidable in my case.
In accordance with Spag’s wishes, I am making what could possibly be my last will. While I think that a half-competent scum would kill off Mocsta N1 instead of me, I’m glad that I have been invited to share all of my feelings with the town.
I must admit, most of D1, I’ve been suspicious of Mocsta. He has been the driving force behind the town, and his analysis, intelligence, and leadership has helped the discussion immensely. However, I do feel like you have been too aggressive with me and others at points, and until recently I really felt like you were bullying me (and others) instead of disagreeing with me.
I thought that the accusation of OE, especially having it 1 hour before the lynch deadline, was a scummy move. I feel like it created chaos in the town environment that only suits scum, and hinders the town. I was going to come out and say that if Mocsta was not killed N1, it would elevate him to my #1 scumread.
However, after taking some time to think about it, I realized that Mocsta’s attack on OE could not possibly be a scum trying to take down the most vocal townie, because he could just Night-Kill OE and be done with him without getting his hands dirty. The main reason I did not jump on the wagon (which really went nowhere, but had the potential to go somewhere) was because I had suspicions of Moc, and the confirmation bias started to set in a little bit (plus I really did agree with OE’s argument). My opinion of Moc has changed with this new way of thinking, and so my opinion of OE has changed accordingly.
So, my two top scumreads are OE and Zare.
OE- The mislynch of StriX cannot be overlooked. The facts are the facts: you mislynched a townie, and you started the wagon to lynch StriX. The same thing that applies to my thinking of Mocsta can be applied to you as well: You could take the easy road and get a townie lynched D1, especially one who’s actions had been really scummy and terrible, and then kill off a townie N2, which would leave the town at 5-2 against the scum (which puts the scum in a great position). Scum OE could have seen that the train on Zare was not going anywhere, so he decided that jumping on StriX would be a better idea, because of the inconsistencies of StriX’s play.
I know Mocsta is an intelligent person. Just by reading his posts and his approach to the game, he knows what is going on. This had me worried before because if he was scum, he’s a dangerous scum. His ability to make arguments and make them convincing had me worried that if he was scum, he could just control the town and get them to make three mislynches, and not have them suspect him at all. This is how much I respect Mocsta’s ability. However, now that I think Mocsta is town by re-evaluating his play, I think he was on to something with his case on OE. Had his case been farther away from the deadline, had it not had confirmation bias, and had I not had a case of confirmation bias myself, I would have voted for OE.
Zare- There’s not much to discuss on this one. Zare randomly switched onto OE, and still has not given us any specifics as to why he voted for OE. It’s lazy, and it’s scummy. If he agreed with Mocsta, why would he just not come out and say that he agrees with Mocsta? The unjustified vote has me really suspicious.
However, I’d like to conclude with this obvious statement: OE and Zare have different roles. They’ve both voted for each other, and scum would not bus D1. That would be just silly.
If anyone has any questions, I would love to hear them.
cDgCorazon was pondering the nature of existence on a quiet evening.
Perhaps, he contemplated, what makes an object and object is subject to everyone's eyes. After a short giggle about his grammatical pun, he prepared for bed. But sleep was to elude him. "How can I know the substance of anything?", he asked the empty room. Predictably enough, he was not treated to an answer by said room.
How can I be sure of the nature of an object when the only things I have to perceive are my own senses? How can I trust the existance of objects outside of my senses' range? What if all the signs, all this "proof" of such matters is fabricated to look the part to those objects that we can perceive? If that is the case, then clearly, my senses cannot be trusted, for they are fooled too easily.
"I've been wondering about the nature of existance... But now what I have to question... Is existance itself."
cDgCorazon, the Vanilla Townie, thought too much Nihilism, fell down, and broke his brain.
It is now Day 2. You have 48 hours to vote. Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
On Mocsta: While I have the most posts, my contribution is likely less than Mocsta’s, so my dying is conspicuous when there is a stronger town to kill. It is my belief that if Mocsta is not killed, it is because scum have deliberately left him alone because either he is scum, or because they want people to assume him not being killed makes him scum. There is also the chance they will try to play around the possibility of a jailkeeper and lynch myself or Corazon assuming that the JK will keep Mocsta safe. They also have the same 50% chance of a JK existing to work with, because of the solid role distribution design (check it in the OP). This presumes they don’t have an amazing read on a blue role, which would alter their chances.
Unfortunately, this leaves you with WIFOM. What to do from here? The same thing I’ve been doing, which is admitting to yourself that he could be scum, but also leaving him until last. Go for the other scum, and hope that their flip will lead you to Mocsta’s door (if he is scum). Now that I’ve made this available information, I expect scum to play around it from now on if they have not already been doing so, so posts previous to this one will be more valuable.
Remember, if scum are playing on Mocsta’s obvious utility to town, they are taking a massive risk in keeping him alive to throw doubt on him. If he continues to remain alive and is green, then town are much stronger. If he is scum then we still can’t catch him without further information, so bide your time while his extreme output provides a paper trail.
On TeMil: TeMiL is another person that presents massive difficulty. I am very reluctant to waste a day’s lynch on a null read just because his continued existence threatens town. Lynch’s are valuable tools and should be used to seek scum if possible. With two mislynches and two NK’s, that leaves a 3/2 town scum ratio for day three, which is LYLO. We need a scum dead on day two. In making the decision of whether to lynch TeMiL (as it is a tricky one), please refer to these posts:-
On January 04 2013 22:41 TeMiL wrote: - Hide Spoiler -
answering mocsta questions: - Hide Spoiler - (1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you? am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active.
(2) "growing in my role" What does this mean? (I understand English is not your first language) i mean i can learn what to do and be a better player each day. right now am like a little boy in his first class, i want to learn a lot but is difficult to be attached every hour. ill try to change that.
answering others post - Hide Spoiler -
________________________________________ On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
i answer both rounds of questions and ive just finished the third. my 2 post where those questions and i couldnt write more because i went back home, forgot my celphone with internet connection and couldnt write any post until now. well ill hope u can change your mind. ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 14:44 OmniEulogy wrote: @StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else. ________________________________________
ill change your thoughts about me... can i? ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote: In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all. . ________________________________________
thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times. right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 21:12 StriX wrote: TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker. ________________________________________
until today . like i said i will practicing my english a lot! give an opportunity thats all ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 21:59 StriX wrote: ##unvote TeMiL ________________________________________
this was unespected, looks like cDgCorazon makes you change your vote? ________________________________________ On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote: #Vote: TeMiL This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute. ________________________________________
ill contribute :D
this is all right now. ________________________________________
________________________________________ OMG... Before I played Newbie 33.. I read through Newbie 32... there was this guy.. AxelGreaser... you have just given me back nightmares of him.. Luckily Yamato isnt playing, he would probably delete his team liquid account. ________________________________________
In all seriousness, you have made my life easier today. I was about to start reading through filters, consolidating my thought process, to make a case as promised to cDgCorazon and Sylencia. But... your post, has made me throw that out the window ________________________________________ ##Vote: TeMiL ________________________________________
(1) You have had the lowest post contribution in 30hrs of play. No excuses (2) All your posts are fluff, and then your riposte to accusations of fluff, is simply fluffx2 with a
Does this make you mafia? • NO, it does guarantee you are mafia. Does this make you absolutely useless and unreliable town? • YES, this is guaranteed.
Town, I am voting TeMiL, because, his actions have proven to be useless and unreliable. (Yes, I use proven to a person with a 1 page filter, that is how strongly I feel)
I ask you this... if we were down to 3 candidates, YOU (Town), X (Scum) and TeMiL... can you trust TeMiL to vote for X?
I already know from his last post, the answer is no, I cant rely on his innocence as town, I can't rely on his skill to scum hunt, and I certainly can not rely on his ability to establish a vote.
but... lets take a look at the flip side and counter my argument. (1) Do we care if we can rely on him, we are not down to 3 candidates? (2) Do you not have a better scum read you can target (instead of lurker bait), as you advocate others to do? ________________________________________
Well.. (1) Agreed, but there has been no stand out lynch candidate thus far. Thus, for Day1 it is highly likely TeMiL might be the hammer vote to send someone home... someone who could be Town.. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening? (2) Agreed, I had a better scum read prior to TeMiL posting, I was just about to read the filter. BUT, the risks to me from (1) are too extreme. We have limited players, 7 townies, every player counts. If TeMiL hammered a townie home, and then a townie is dropped off from Night Kill, Day 2 starts with 2 mafia and 5 townies; which is going to signficantly reduce town odds. I am looking at the big picture here, and lynching a ?possible town? TeMiL to me is less risk long term than lynching my scum read, who may also be a town flip.
Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening?
________________________________________
P.S. Just refreshed to see if anything new before posted, and saw this beauty. Case in Point. or as I have always wanted to say since doing Trigonometry in high school.
Q.E.D - Hide Spoiler -
________________________________________ On January 04 2013 23:14 TeMiL wrote: ________________________________________ Hide nested quote - On January 04 2013 22:49 zarepath wrote: TeMiL, what do you think about my earlier analysis of Sylencia? ________________________________________
u have something agains australians or isjust causality to target him? looks like you now how to analyse a gamer.
its a good brief of course and thanks to made me read it again
I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with.
If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL.
If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote.
If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes.
Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds.
Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game?
This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post.
His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way.
In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two).
TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same.
You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play.
Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain...
How frustrating.
Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum.
This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess.
I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever. When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options:
- vote StriX
- vote Omni
- vote Jamp
As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX.
And also what I consider an important post on possible scum distribution here:
I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.
This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.
It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim.
The three people up for lynching (TeMiL excluded) were: Omni, Jamp, and StriX). I think Jamp was an inferior lynch to StriX in every way (with the information available at the time). That Syl sat his vote on Jamp does not give us any information on him as he knew his vote would be meaningless. Sitting by yourself on someone that is not in contention is equivalent to a no-lynch, and this gives me a scummy read on him. He had the option to express a large degree of power over who got lynched between Omni and StriX, but declined this opportunity and went no-lynch. Weak…
Omni was a more active poster, but from my perspective his meta is damn scummy even when he plays town. StriX’s vote on Omni was for survival, so did not really represent his read. That leaves Mocsta and Zare as the two people actually putting their reads on Omni. I completely excuse Mocsta, both because he’s bulletproof from lynches for now, and because his action actually represented his read. There was no wagon for Omni at the time, and by backing out of TeMiL he was not dissociating from an active wagon. There is no scum motive there that I can see.
Zare’s motive is a little more… suspect. He jumps off TeMiL and straight onto Mocsta’s proposed bandwagon without justification: a straight mimic play. This play will almost guarantee Zare being town if Omni flips red. Until we have this information however, it reads as scummy, as he doesn’t offer any justification for his switch, and it doesn’t seem as if he cares who gets lynched. Combine this with him not posting an analysis and Zare is giving me some nasty signals.
Analysis on the three people that voted on StriX with me is a little more difficult, as I am guilty of the same crime.
Jampidampi was first to vote strix, I believe for both survival and because StriX’ play was genuinely scummy/lurky. Regardless, he did not move his vote, didn’t seem to manipulate the bandwagon, and did not OMGUS Corazons pressure. OmniEulogy posted a case on Strix and voted for him for completely legitimate reasons. Admittedly his wording preceding his vote was a bit muddled, which Jamp points out. I do not get anything from Omni’s vote.
Corazon was the nail in the coffin for StriX. So long as nobody left the Strix wagon, there is pretty much no way that five votes will land anywhere else. If Corazon is scum, this would be a very bold move as he is taking responsibility for a mislynch. Regardless, Corazon is so active he is not to be pursued yet.
On January 06 2013 03:40 OmniEulogy wrote: ah to Answer your question to me about Spag Mocsta, I'm not really sure how to take Spags approach to this game. It's much different to the only other game I've played with him. I see him as town, although the only game I played with him where he was town his behavior was completely different. He still hasn't explained why he made the switch to StriX over myself as he claimed a few times he saw me as scummy,
On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote: I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.
This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.
It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim.
I bolded what I found odd. Would a town Spag want us to waste time on him when he knows he is town? Would he not try and prove to us that he is town by his previous actions at this point and say that he was removed because he believes he has given us a good indication that he is town because of (x) reason. I'm not sure if I like him saying "if I flip scum ignore me". He should know if he will flip scum or not. As a townie I would have said "If I get lynched and when I flip town I hope you believe me". What he has said almost seems like a difference in how you think when you are pretending to be something and when you actually are. However I believe I'm over-analyzing it.
Actually thats a very interesting point.. I completely missed that, I assumed it was just theory crafting..
If you combine that, with him @ the start, trying to soft-claim town (by pretending not to know about QT) its looking fishy...
i will continue to read the thread, and see if this has been addressed.
My will loses a lot of credibility due to me not posting it before the deadline. This is damn unfortunate. Still, my thoughts on what we should do in precisely this scenario (Mocsta not being NKed) are in there, so you should have a read.
It's also got my analysis spoilered on the same post.
I'm heading to the gym, I've been sitting here waiting for the NK for five hours. I'll probably head to the beach later as well, so my activity will go down in the next 5-8 hours.
Mocsta did you have a mislynch analysis ready to go?
On January 06 2013 05:33 Spaghetticus wrote: When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. .
Excuse me...
@Sylencia, I hope you have commented on this, (still reading through the thread).. as you did with zarepath.
Do you think my case on OmniEulogy was dredged with "confirmation bias" aka tunnel syndrome?
Before I answer this, can I ask you a question?
How did you go about making his case? Did you read his filter and analyze the posts you put in question when you got to that post? Or did you read all of his filter first, and then go back and pick out posts to criticize?
I already thought he was dirty.
I am an ab-lib player.. or shallow as spag put it..
So I knew i wanted to write a case.. but had limited time
I decide to cherry pick his meaningful posts (whether town or scum motivated) and comment on them.
I found 9 posts out of 30 that satisfied that and commented on them 1 by 1
@Mocsta Omni's post you quoted was ridiculous, and made me epic mad. The fact that you decided to support it makes me both confused and furious.
I removed myself from the math so that my point could not be discounted. If I included myself in the math it would be me claiming town. By excluding myself I was removing the temptation of a townie to ignore the logic in my post as it could be interpreted as me claiming town. Soft claiming town is terrible, or so I hear?
I was doing the thinking for you, any town reading it should not be applying this math to me anyway, as I was the one that posted it. I was not weakening my position in anyone's eyes unless they were stupid enough to think town reads on myself were legit. It was a transparent play, I can expect this misinterpretation from Omni but not from you. WTF?
Guys.. for some this appears lost in the thread space.
this was my final Night 1 post. I don't want to hi-jack discussions today, so i would appreciate if each individual can take the time to respond to what is contained within. (some have already done so)
On January 06 2013 01:07 Mocsta wrote: Guys, I think there are 2 people on the chopping block tonight. No idea which way its leaning.
I don't know where it went wrong, but, this town environment is really lacking at the moment. Maybe its my fault, but the amount of inactivity is a mafias dream.
Day2, town really needs to step up the activity. Town needs to start finding flaws in peoples cases (regardless of whether I agreed with Corazon comments... him breaking my case down IS SOLID town play.. we need more of this)
(3) The following are suggestions I hope town considers for Day 2 play.
Overall I like the way you are playing, and its good you called me out. That was a completely sound play.
The only thing I will say to you regarding the above is.. Towards the end, I think you were blinded by my actions and begun to tunnel me.
Because I think you are a critical component of this game, I tried my best to answer your questions with respect (but I REALLY wanted to just tell you to fuck off).
I am telling you this because for Day2, town REALLY will need your pragmatic approach to continue.
I think you have been playing this game with great intelligence. I think your positions have been well considered, and in most occasions well justified. We need more of this heading forward with Day 2.
If I may, I ask that you follow up on Spaghetticus. I think we are picking up on the same sub text as per one of your first posts.
With regards to my pressure on Spag, I am confused by his words and by his actions. By mentioning conflicting views on certain issues, it means that there's possibly something more behind his game plan. If he's not being honest, it's not benefiting town at all.
I would love to supply the posts I think are odd.. but.. that might open too many WIFOM excuses.
I have reviewed your filter post Day1 lynch. (1) I am stuck with you. I don't think my case had confirmation bias (unfortunately only Corazon has commented). The problem is, on a re-read, and considering content since the case.. I do find some material to be incredibly town motivated.
(2) In your defense against my case, you stated I don't like your thought process. Perhaps this is true, and it is precisely why I ask the below of you.
I would appreciate your thoughts on Spaghetticus. Is it just me who sees odd, eratic, and confusing behaviour?
OK. you have the biggest filter.. and so what.. In my opinion the quality is lacking, and the content convoluted. I find many of your posts wishy-washy and confusing. I also find your behaviour during end of Day1 all over the place.
For a person who prides himself on analytical, controlled play; you were very erratic. Completely uncharacteristic.
Then, there is this post...
On January 05 2013 03:53 Spaghetticus wrote: @OmniEulogy I get a scum read off you... but...
I am not going to pursue you if I can help it. Your process is so alien to me I can't really fathom your motives. I would like other people to apply scrutiny while I look elsewhere. I just can't see you as not scum, but this was true in XXXIII and you flipped town. Please people, before you attribute a scumbuddy relationship here... ... ... ... this is too high profile and obvious. My contribution will be substantial elsewhere, I genuinely feel my objectivity is compromised entirely when dealing with Omni. This is town motivated and too bold a risk for too little a reward to be a scum ploy. I have reasonable town motive, I don't want this post to haunt me.
How is this town motivated when you followed up by unvoting TeMiL and voting StriX.. its clear in your filter to see.
I still stand by what I said to Sylencia. I think your play has been "in your own way" aligned with town principles.
We need you to step up though, interact more, contribute more. I know it feels good to sit back and soak in the thread, and hopefully someone makes a compelling point. But with the lack of activity currently, more town players need to step up and contribute.
One of your last posts calls out two lurkers. jampi and TiMeL.
I ask that you develop these relationships further in Day2.
You confuse me the same as OmniEulogy. Some things are helpful, others are pointless. How to interpret you..
I think town would get a better sense of your alignment if you continued your conversations with Sylencia. This is not intended to head towards OMGUS, moreso, zarepath raised curious points about Sylencia voting tendencies. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=25#482 Do you think this is worth exploring further?
Honestly, I don't even know if you will read this. If you are mafia, well done. If I didnt have a meta, I would def try to play the way you have. People thought my 1hr vote was murky, but your post out of no where was even worse. That truly fucked up the thought process.
On the off chance you are town, I ask that you try to vote in Day 2 earlier, to at least give the others a chance to adjust.
On January 06 2013 05:33 Spaghetticus wrote: When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. .
Excuse me...
@Sylencia, I hope you have commented on this, (still reading through the thread).. as you did with zarepath.
I don't understand what you're saying I should be saying about this. Honestly, I don't understand how keeping a vote on Temil leads to a no-lynch read, since that was never going to be happening?
If it's regarding why I kept my own vote, I had already explained that, and if you think further than that situation, if I did switch my vote, I would only be leaving myself up to scum manipulation if I am questioned about vote switching and the only answer I can truly give is "No, I don't necessarily think he is scummy, but I was just bandwagoning because I didn't want to be the only one voting jampi."
On January 06 2013 13:18 Mocsta wrote: Maybe I got confused.. i thought you called out zarepath for wanting to no-lynch.. perhaps it was Omni.
if so, the question then applies to Omni.
I only gave the reasons why no lynch was bad to him. When I voted for him, it was a slight influence, as well as what I had also written, but as I just said before, I don't understand how not changing from Temil suggests no lynch.
On January 06 2013 13:18 Mocsta wrote: Maybe I got confused.. i thought you called out zarepath for wanting to no-lynch.. perhaps it was Omni.
if so, the question then applies to Omni.
I only gave the reasons why no lynch was bad to him. When I voted for him, it was a slight influence, as well as what I had also written, but as I just said before, I don't understand how not changing from Temil suggests no lynch.
I am in/out heaps today, so maybe I didnt read it properly.
The thing is to do with Spaghetticus.
On January 06 2013 05:33 Spaghetticus wrote: When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch.
The key point being by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch.
What is your take on Spaghetticus and him detailing his final intention as to award a "no-lynch".
(I think its quite contradictory, and I do not recall him stating a no-lynch was on the cards at any point in the game (for his vote)
Wow there has barely been any discussion at all...
Mocsta I am confused as to what is happening in your dialogue with Sylencia, so I'll butt out and let this run it's course. When you want an explanation just holla.
I hope the rest of you are reading the thread or sleeping, because this much activity after an NK is sort of unacceptable. We have a lot of information to sift through (more than ever before!), why would everyone be inactive?
I think everyone should make a reductive list of who they won't be pursuing day two. I won't be pursuing:- - myself - Mocsta - Sylencia (without a lot of convincing) - TeMiL (though I may vote for him if we come to the conclusion that it's better for town)
Which leaves: - Jampi - Zare - Omni
I don't want to hunt Omni if I can avoid it, but if he's left alone I might make a case, depending on whether I'm busy with pressuring one of the other two. Lynching Omni does have the benefit of clearing Zare's name if he flips red.
On January 06 2013 09:24 OmniEulogy wrote: gg Cora. I was role blocked.
This is curious. Why would OmniEulogy be roleblocked? A jailkeeper would target someone he believes will be killed. Scum had no motivation to kill Omni, because he was the other suspicious player D1 and thus would be pressured at least N1, if not D2 potentially leading to another misslynch. Many pointed that if StriX flips town (which he did), Omni would be very suspicious. A jailkeeper could also potentially target a scumread in hopes that a) he is scum and b) he carries out the nightkill. Even if he was 100% sure that Omni was scum, that would still only lead to 50/50 chance of blocking the kill. Thus I don't this is likely. A scum roleblocker would target Omni if he thought he had a blue role. A scum roleblocker might target Omni in hopes that he claims and someone suspects this claim.
@All Should townies always claim being roleblocked in this setup? Do you think the scum roleblocker would target Omni? Or do think he faked the claim? Or do you have any better reasoning for a jailkeeper to target Omni?
A JK would target Omni if they thought the chance of Omni being scum outweighed the chance of said JK correctly guessing who would be NKed. If this is what they did then their math is likely bad.
Looking at the possible setups, there are only four:
Goon + Roleblocker, Jailkeeper + Cop, five Townies 2 Goons, Cop, six Townies 2 Goons, Jailkeeper, six Townies Goon + Roleblocker, seven Townies
In scenario one we have either a player that did not post night actions (TeMiL?), or a person not revealing that they were roleblocked. I'm not sure on whether it is well known if revealing a roleblock is a solid move in this setup (or whether it's a solid move at all). Omni you revealed immediately, do you have this information? I imagine that it is the right play, but I admit I don't have a good understanding of this part of the game.
In scenario two Omni is lying, which probably means scum. This scenario is unlikely as it is bloody risky for a scum to do this just to flush out a blue role.
In scenario three the jailkeeper might have read Omni as scum, and JKed him, but the more logical play would to be jailing defensively. This scenario is unlikely, as it would mean the JK is playing far less than optimally (there were only really three potential NK targets, where as there were six potential roleblockers.
In scenario four the scum thought the best chance of stopping a blue action was by roleblocking Omni. Does anyone know of any slips Omni has made that would make him look blue? I haven't seen any. They may have thought him a likely cop check (though they don't know whether there is a cop). This scenario is unlikely.
Interestingly, the town blue roles have more information than the rest of us (if any). A JK can rule out two and four, as well as know there is a 50% base chance of Omni lying if the JK was not the one that roleblocked him (the rest of us only have information granting a 25% base chance).
I don't think a JK would jail Omni, as it's the wrong play. Therefore, it is likely that if we have a JK, he knows that Omni is lying.
I don't think scum would think Omni is blue. This means that if scum did roleblock him, it was for other reason. I could be wrong on this. If anyone has seen blue slips from Omni, you need to factor this into your analysis of this situation.
A cop can rule out scenarios three and four and also has a better base read on Omni's chance of lying.
Either we have a bad JK, we have someone hiding the fact they were roleblocked, or Omni is lying.
This analysis was on the fly, so if there are holes in it polease point them out. I don't think Jamp's analysis was bad, in fact the information he provided needed to be put down to get everyone less analytic on track. Mocsta you seem pretty grumpy, this is understandable but it won't help your play.
@Spag Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks something is wrong with this.
@Mocsta You yourself have plenty of occasiations where you prompt others to do the thinking for you. I'm not certain on this, but atleast everyone of your quoestion session has left me with this feeling.
On January 06 2013 16:14 Spaghetticus wrote: Wow there has barely been any discussion at all...
Mocsta I am confused as to what is happening in your dialogue with Sylencia, so I'll butt out and let this run it's course. When you want an explanation just holla.
I hope the rest of you are reading the thread or sleeping, because this much activity after an NK is sort of unacceptable. We have a lot of information to sift through (more than ever before!), why would everyone be inactive?
Alright, can I ask you for the explanation behind that statement? I said it twice before, but I don't understand how you got to the conclusion that if you didn't change your vote from Temil, it would mean your intention was a no lynch.
With regards to the roleblocking move, perhaps someone read this post and acted on it?
On January 05 2013 14:25 Spaghetticus wrote: We have a 50% chance of there actually being a JK, then that JK has to correctly identify the scum that will carry out the NK without being roleblocked.
This was what came to my mind when Omni claimed the roleblock. If we look at it being there being a Jailkeeper who wasn't sure what to do, they would most likely find this piece of advice and use it. What this means is that if it's a Town JK, they are one who suspects OE as scum.
If it was a scum RB, it was either to block a blue move, or an attempt to clear his name via roleblock. (Possible for him to be roleblocked by the other mafia member, and then claim it - both actions killing and roleblocking performed by the same person.) I'm not sure if they would risk that kind of move though, because if there is a scum RB, there would've been a 50% chance for there to be a JK+Cop too, so a day 1 move like that would be quite unlikely.
Also, it's very unlikely that he is lying, because if no one else claims a Roleblock here, the 3rd setup is the most likely one - which means he could easily cop a check (excuse the pun) the next night.
On January 06 2013 22:32 Sylencia wrote: Also, it's very unlikely that he is lying, because if no one else claims a Roleblock here, the 3rd setup is the most likely one - which means he could easily cop a check (excuse the pun) the next night.
By the third setup do you mean the one with only a jailkeeper? And I'm not sure if I understand the meaning behind your 2nd sentence, do you mean a cop is likely to check on him? But there is no cop in the 3rd setup...
Ew did I actually write that? I probably thought at that point that a JK was only the town version of a roleblocker. That would explain a lot though.
Okay so it doesn't seem like Mocsta was making the play I thought. I'll reveal.
If you have your vote on someone and that person has no chance of being lynched, your vote is not actually doing anything. Functionally, it is the same as voting for a no-lynch, as everyone else will go an lynch someone without your input. When you stayed on jamp, there was no way he was getting lynched, and so not changing you denied us your input on who got lynched. This means we cannot blame you for a mislynch, it's complete disassociation from the actual lynch. Now that I think on it, that means if you flip scum you were probably happy with an Omni or StriX lynch, which would increase the town read on Omni.
It does not mean that you are actually wanting a no-lynch. A no-lynch will hardly ever get off the ground in a newbie game. When I described your vote as the equivalent of a no-lynch, I probably should have said it was the equivalent of a no-vote.
On January 06 2013 22:32 Sylencia wrote: Also, it's very unlikely that he is lying, because if no one else claims a Roleblock here, the 3rd setup is the most likely one - which means he could easily cop a check (excuse the pun) the next night.
By the third setup do you mean the one with only a jailkeeper? And I'm not sure if I understand the meaning behind your 2nd sentence, do you mean a cop is likely to check on him? But there is no cop in the 3rd setup...
On January 06 2013 22:32 Sylencia wrote: Also, it's very unlikely that he is lying, because if no one else claims a Roleblock here, the 3rd setup is the most likely one - which means he could easily cop a check (excuse the pun) the next night.
By the third setup do you mean the one with only a jailkeeper? And I'm not sure if I understand the meaning behind your 2nd sentence, do you mean a cop is likely to check on him? But there is no cop in the 3rd setup...
Sorry, second setup with the Cop only.
So what you are saying that in the event he is lying, a cop will check on him? If that is so then I understand.
On January 06 2013 22:48 Spaghetticus wrote: Ew did I actually write that? I probably thought at that point that a JK was only the town version of a roleblocker. That would explain a lot though.
Okay so it doesn't seem like Mocsta was making the play I thought. I'll reveal.
If you have your vote on someone and that person has no chance of being lynched, your vote is not actually doing anything. Functionally, it is the same as voting for a no-lynch, as everyone else will go an lynch someone without your input. When you stayed on jamp, there was no way he was getting lynched, and so not changing you denied us your input on who got lynched. This means we cannot blame you for a mislynch, it's complete disassociation from the actual lynch. Now that I think on it, that means if you flip scum you were probably happy with an Omni or StriX lynch, which would increase the town read on Omni.
It does not mean that you are actually wanting a no-lynch. A no-lynch will hardly ever get off the ground in a newbie game. When I described your vote as the equivalent of a no-lynch, I probably should have said it was the equivalent of a no-vote.
Right, but then as I've said previously how am I supposed to honestly reply to a question such as "What was the reasoning behind voting Strix?" without sounding like I've just jumped onto the wagon without him having a scum image in mind? That was why I didn't change my vote in the previous day, and I think if I did it would've caused more problems during today because there would be a high chance that I would be killed off for changing my vote on someone I didn't have any reasoning behind.
@Spag Was my train of thought wrong, and should I have switched my vote despite my internal thoughts on the situation? If I had done it, would you have reacted the way I thought everyone would regarding a random switch in vote? If you disagree with my thoughts, I want to hear what you would have done/suggest.
On January 06 2013 22:32 Sylencia wrote: Also, it's very unlikely that he is lying, because if no one else claims a Roleblock here, the 3rd setup is the most likely one - which means he could easily cop a check (excuse the pun) the next night.
By the third setup do you mean the one with only a jailkeeper? And I'm not sure if I understand the meaning behind your 2nd sentence, do you mean a cop is likely to check on him? But there is no cop in the 3rd setup...
Sorry, second setup with the Cop only.
So what you are saying that in the event he is lying, a cop will check on him? If that is so then I understand.
Yes because without the Roleblocker on the scum team (only 1 RB got claimed), the Cop and JK do not co-exist.
Syl. At the time of the mislynch, who did you think was the better lynch: StriX or Omni? If you had any preference whatsoever, you should have voted for them as your vote would have either sealed the deal, or brought Omni into real contention. You would have effected the outcome. Yes bandwagoning is not great, but exercising your vote and not remaining neutral is more important. A person that bandwagons at least gives us the information that he bandwagoned, refusing to give information is worse in my book.
And yes, if your voteswitch looked like a pure bandwagon you would have been grilled, but by speaking the truth (that your vote was otherwise redundant, and that you exercised as much control over the lynch as possible under the circumstances) town would be in a better position to assess you, and I at least would have found your response adequate.
So it was from lack of time or effort? I'd growl at you but I've made quite a few mistakes for the same reasons, and I know I've put in a bloody lot of both time and effort, so I guess it's unavoidable at this competency level.
The time given to read and make a rational decision based on that post was very small. I had just woken up and when I saw that post, and I only got to skim read it because I was going through it so slowly. Since the finer points of the argument weren't read properly, I was not going to vote for him.
If others want to make a comment about this, I'll be happy to answer, but if not, I think there are other things we can concentrate on.
@Mocsta: You were annoyed that most of us were not on during the evening of tonight, and you placed a vote on Jampi. Was there a reason behind it, and is there a reason you did not choose to pursue OE with a vote on him instead? My guess is that the roleblock claim had something to do with it, but since there's a lack of discussion going on, I want to know where this vote is coming from.
No. The status "roleblock" is externally assigned as one entity, so stacking RBs still appear like one. The protection status from Jailkeeping is hidden, and the RB part of it is treated as if it was a regular RB for the notification process.
Birthday hats! (It's not my actual birthday though)
On January 07 2013 01:05 OmniEulogy wrote: EBWOP: In the event that I was RB'd and JK'd would I receive a notification for both of the actions? Forgot bold.
Also, just got up, the time difference is really hurting us this game.
Since you are asking this question, what makes you think both the scum RB and the JK would target you?
Because I was RB'd and was wondering if it would be possible to be targeted by both. If town JK did it, it's a poor move as has been said before, but I could see scum RB doing it. Mistaking my over-confidence in having no fear to be lynched D1 as a blue tell. I also did it on the small chance we had a cop, and I'm hoping we do and I just got hit by all 3 night actions available. If that happened I'd be fairly happy with where we ended up. Somebody would know I am town and scum RB wasted his night action. I really hoped if we had a JK though that he wouldn't target me as it would seem a bit obvious.
I highly doubt town JK would hit me though instead of protecting Mocsta/Cora so it must have been scum RB OR both of them as JK was confused and didn't know who to stop. All of it is just speculation though.
If you were town JK would you really pick me over protecting one of the stronger townies? Syl and Spag seem to think its possible but we all agree that it would be a pretty bad move.
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum?
(1) I honestly don't know. Most of today has been me defending myself (an absolute waste of thread space), so I haven't been able to keep up to date with thread status quo.
I think you have had enough time to think of this. So I ask again, do you still Omni is scum? If not what in his paly changed your opinion?
@Everyone I know this is mostly speculation but as conversation is so slow I don't see how this can hurt.
Put yourself in the shoes of Cop N1, who do you think they would check and why? I'm curious in how people would think in that situation given that I am being looked at quite closely as scum. Would you check me to see if I am scum to confirm it, or assume I am and try to find a hidden scum in the lurkers / more active townies?
@Omni I though it was not advised to talk about who a cop would target? Since then the mafia could bluehunt more efectively. If they know for example that a cop would target you, and then someone makes case against you and player C comes in and defends you against the case, wouldn't that make player C a good candidate for the cop and thus a candidate for the following nightkill?
EBWOP: And since only one roleblock has been claimed anyway, the only way there would be cop is that the scum RB or the JK didn't target anyone, or both targeted Omni. I don't think a JK would target Omni, so doesn't that make this kinda pointless?
We don't even know if there is a cop, and if everybody gives their speculation I highly doubt it helps scum very much, especially as multiple people would have the same opinions. This is more about the way people are thinking at the moment not You ARE the cop. Clearly being 2 townies down and having a 3rd on the way to being lynched isn't bothering you very much. Plus we're only looking for 2 scum. If we can (and we need to) lynch scum tonight we'll hopefully have a JK and possibly a cop (best case scenario) N2.
Why are you so against giving out your thoughts on the matter? You already have a vote on you, clear up some of the concerns voiced and give us your opinion.
EBWOP: I guess we lynch in 24 hours so not really "tonight" was thinking more of how the game has cycles and this is D2...
anyway considering you don't seem to want to continue the conversation... + Show Spoiler +
On January 07 2013 05:09 jampidampi wrote: @Omni I though it was not advised to talk about who a cop would target? Since then the mafia could bluehunt more efectively. If they know for example that a cop would target you, and then someone makes case against you and player C comes in and defends you against the case, wouldn't that make player C a good candidate for the cop and thus a candidate for the following nightkill?
How does this apply to what I've asked? A case has already been made on me, if people want to defend me like Cora did (partially) I would more than welcome it. If people want to continue to ask me questions I also welcome that as well.
What I don't understand is why you want to try and stop people from seeing each others thought process and stop the only conversation that has happened today. If you don't like it, come up with something else instead of going afk again. Help Town. Contribute.
On January 07 2013 00:03 Sylencia wrote: @Mocsta: You were annoyed that most of us were not on during the evening of tonight, and you placed a vote on Jampi. Was there a reason behind it, ... I want to know where this vote is coming from.
On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote: See you at lynch deadline.
Standing by this Sylencia.
Until zarepath, TeMiL join the conversation. Im not bothering with this game anymore.
It takes a lot of time and energy to play this, and so far, its been a total waste. If 2 out of 7 players are not going to contribute.
That leaves us with 5 players... 2 being scum.. which is almost a MYLO situation. Sorry Sylencia for spitting the dummy, but right now I wish I signed up for TL Mafia LVIII instead, thats at page 150 already...
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum?
(1) I honestly don't know. Most of today has been me defending myself (an absolute waste of thread space), so I haven't been able to keep up to date with thread status quo.
I think you have had enough time to think of this. So I ask again, do you still Omni is scum? If not what in his paly changed your opinion?
On January 07 2013 04:49 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta
On January 05 2013 19:42 Mocsta wrote:
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum?
(1) I honestly don't know. Most of today has been me defending myself (an absolute waste of thread space), so I haven't been able to keep up to date with thread status quo.
I think you have had enough time to think of this. So I ask again, do you still Omni is scum? If not what in his paly changed your opinion?
Go fuck yourself and your tunnel vision.
That's hardly appropriate; you've followed up on a ton of your own questions to various people.
I don't think Mocsta shoud be the prime suspect right now, considering that he is the only townie really participating enough to respond appropriately. I think thread pressure is more deserved elsewhere.
The reason I switched to OE! Firstly, my original suspicions/case prior to the switch: + Show Spoiler +
OE spent an inordinate amount of time tunneling me for my no-lynch comment, but didn't bother to go through my entire filter and present a full case. He admitted that my own case against Syl was good, but then said he didn't like it without breaking it down point-by-point. He then voted for me without a full analysis, mostly based on a single suspicion.
I found this especially suspicious because when it became clear not many others were biting on the case against me, he pulled his vote back instead of fighting for it.
These were the items that compelled me to come up with a case against OE near the end of D1, in addition to his defensiveness and his emotional response to Spag. I think that mafia are prone to using emotion as part of their argumentation much more readily than townies, as it discourages a clear town atmosphere and doesn't necessitate logic or truth.
The reason I didn't put the case forward were twofold: one, I was worried it was tunnelling on my part, as I was a little unnerved by his persistent attacks on me and the fact that Sylencia and someone else had picked up on it as well. I didn't want to bring nothing but suspicions to light and act as if it were a tight case, and spend the energy persuading everyone else of it when I wasn't fully persuaded myself. Secondly, it was simply a matter of time. I was able to hawk the thread all day because I was at work and things were slow, but on the second half of Day 1 work picked up and when it was finished, I had RL stuff to attend to leading up to the final lynch. I suspected I could make a case with a thorough look through his filter, but didn't have the time.
Secondly, why I switched so readily to vote OE following Mocsta's case: + Show Spoiler +
Mocsta, like it or not, was a leader for the town environment Day 1, and his stance on voting out TeMiL was dramatic and seemed quite final. Being unsure of my suspicions on Day 1, I completely bandwagoned him on TeMiL, knowing Spag would also vote him out, and while I wasn't entirely convinced it was the right thing to do, I didn't feel sure enough about StriX or jampi, and not certain enough about OE to go through the energy of fleshing out my case and making it and pushing for a following.
So when the person whose argument already held my vote made a very dramatic stand about OE, I read his case and went, "Yep, that's what I thought, too!" This is my second game and it feels good to realize that others have the same suspicions as me, as honestly I was at a point where I could see almost everyone being mafia after reading everybody's filters multiple times.
Additionally, I knew that a quick bandwagon move like this would provoke some kind of reaction to the other votes, which had been quite settled up to that point. I knew that it would be easy for Mocsta's analysis to go stale and for almost nothing to happen save for his single vote change, and felt that in order to really see hwo people felt about it, it would need a second voice.
My analysis was lacking (ie, nonexistent) because I was literally hopping in and out of the computer room between changing my son's diaper and putting him to bed, spending time with the wife, etc. There was no reason for me to think I'd have enough consecutive free time to devote to a full analysis that illustrated appropriately why I agreed with Mocsta's analysis, let alone with enough time left over to put pressure on the rest of the voters before the deadline.
I think it's totally reasonable to have expected this explanation from me much sooner than now; it was a big switch given with no explanation. RL issues have prevented a quicker response, which does make me a poor town player for the past few days at a time when solid town play has been needed to create a good discussion environment. So I do take credit for some of the state of the current thread.
Analyzing discussion is valuable, but I see how the votes fall as the most compelling evidence; your vote is your most valuable asset, and how you use it shows a lot.
The person whose individual case for being a townie suffered the most from the D1 lynch was OE, without question. If he had been mafia, other mafia would have made a more concerted effort on jambi; lynching StriX puts OE in a horrible position.
OE was one of the only people to make an actual concerted case against StriX, and the one to first make real effort on it. A mafia who knows StriX is innocent could easily make that lynch happen and OE have the blood on his hands.
Additionally, OE is known for playing/behaving a certain way in Mafia, according to Spag, who went well out of his way to cast suspicion on OE multiple times while explicitly saying "that doesn't mean I really think you're scum." I looked at OE's filter from the last newbie mafia, and true enough, he's generally played pretty emotionally and defensively, and with a healthy amount of pep. That kind of play was consistent across the last game, and consistent to every post he's made this game.
Because I"m convinced that his defensiveness/emotion is consistent to his play, that removed a chunk of my original suspicion on him for the attention he'd cast upon himself. In combination with the fact that he came out worse from D1 lynch than anyone else, I sincerely doubt his innocence. His case was a perfect bandwagon target for the mafia, and his general tone draws attention to himself in such a way that mafia could easily push for his lynching today.
Therefore, I am convinced that OE is not likely to be scum.
Great post zarepath..we need indeed do look at things with the same glasses on.
I concur. In my last post during night1 i hinted towards omni being clear of my vote.
Surprising an self proclaimed anlyst like jampi completely missed this.. hence my.vulgar attitude.
Zareoath. Have u noticed jampi is doing his utmost to derail the thread convo? Even omni called him out on it. Jampi focus is purely to speculate setups. 1 a complete waste of time. And 2 an easy accomplishment for scum.
Further. All his posts lack the detail he has promised and he only gives out information when asked. Another classic scum trait. Im sure.he will.counter by saying i gabe a list of 3 town reads.freely. But once again how.does summarising what evwryone knew aid the.scum hunt.
he is merely.blending in. Reading the thread . He is also one of the initiators of the.strix vote off.
If u feel the same i do. I suggest renforcing my vote to jampi.
On January 07 2013 09:32 zarepath wrote: EBWOP to "Why I no longer think that OE is scum:"
Because I"m convinced that his defensiveness/emotion is consistent to his play, that removed a chunk of my original suspicion on him for the attention he'd cast upon himself. In combination with the fact that he came out worse from D1 lynch than anyone else, I sincerely doubt his innocence. His case was a perfect bandwagon target for the mafia, and his general tone draws attention to himself in such a way that mafia could easily push for his lynching today.
Therefore, I am convinced that OE is not likely to be scum.
Our discussion has gotten nowhere today, and at this rate, we have potentially 2 kills going down if Temil doesn't come. The worst thing would be if two townies just died at this point because that would actually just end the game right there. (Unless Temil gets replaced assuming he does not vote)
If we are to prevent this, then we can actually cut our losses and vote for Temil, losing only 1 person who was already a detriment to town as it was.
On January 07 2013 10:58 Sylencia wrote: ##Vote Temil
Our discussion has gotten nowhere today, and at this rate, we have potentially 2 kills going down if Temil doesn't come. The worst thing would be if two townies just died at this point because that would actually just end the game right there. (Unless Temil gets replaced assuming he does not vote)
If we are to prevent this, then we can actually cut our losses and vote for Temil, losing only 1 person who was already a detriment to town as it was.
Sylencia, I appreciate you entering the fray and contributing your thoughts to this lack-lustre day.
However, I have to respectfully disagree with you on this vote, as i think the window to vote off a "bad" townie has closed.
This is based on the following: (1) if TeMiL is lynched and flips town, with the night kill, we are guaranteed to start Day3 with 5 players (3 town + 2 scum).
This is instant MYLO situation.
(2) The benefit of eradicating TeMiL Day 1 was because the chance of lynching townie was high (proven by Strix lynch), so we were replacing a high probability townie lynch with a guaranteed bad townie lynch. The Day 2 numbers outcome would be the same (5 townies + 2 scum) its just we would be left with 5 townies, not 4 + 1 bad townie. So even though I support(ed) the play of (2)... because of the outcome from (1) I think we can not afford to vote out a bad townie.
MYLO with the current town atmosphere is instant game loss. The window of opportunity fort his gambit has closed.
Caveat: If the town atmosphere was better, yes, I would consider supporting the TeMiL vote Day 2
P.S.
Whilst TeMiL has not contributed significantly; and his actions are not telegraphed in advance - making him a loose cannon.
I believe that his vote on Day1 was not made lightly.
I think that his vote was sound, even though the rational presented was limited. i.e. based on the condition of the thread, I do not think a vote on jampidampi is unreasonable to suggest (Mocsta: jampidampi overview reasons to lynch), nor do I think it is the vote of a person who "blindly pinned a tail on the donkey" I am not asking you join me on jampidampi. You need to consider for yourself if you think his filter is scum motivated.
I moreso ask that you reconsider the vote on TeMiL. He is an easy lynch bait target for mafia to jump on; and his lynching will result in a MYLO situation, potentially without a unanimously agreed scum target.
The implication of TeMiL being lynched on Day2 is guaranteed loss of game for town
Ahh, Mocsta, yes, that was a typo. I meant to say that I am unsure of his guilt, not his innocence. I rephrased that sentence a couple times before I typed it to accurately display my feelings and screwed up .
On jampi I'm not sure; I'll be reading filters in the morning to see what I think about that. Again, he hasn't produced enough for a really solid analysis of him, but neither has TeMiL and we're apparently fine with that. I don't know. I'll have more to say in probably 12 hours; it's bed time for me now.
I'm glad you stayed Mocsta. If you had have made good on leaving I would have voted you without hesitation. It looks like an emotional action currently so I'll ignore it.
It looked like you were a scum trying to avoid having to continue posting. The only reason you're on my bullet-proof list is because if you are scum and continue to post a lot, you will slip and die. If you fail to maintain your own momentum, my perspective on you will change.
I'm going to go browse filters for a while and try and figure out who I'm voting for. I can almost feel the scum laughter as town stagnate to an early grave. @Zare: I appreciate your life infringing on your game, but please make an effort to jump in as much as time will allow. From out perspective life excuses are pretty much wind, despite the fact they are often true. Any scum can claim life problems as an excuse to lurk, it's unverifiable.
@Mocsta, a lot of this assumes that Temil will come back and put in a vote.
Assuming no replacement, and he does not vote:
Temil Town, Mislynch: 2-2 after night action, we lose. Temil Town, Scum lynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Mislynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Scum lynch: We win (probably wishful thinking at this point)
If we lynch Temil: Town: 3-2, MYLO Scum: 4-1
You say that the MYLO situation makes us lose automatically, but playing the odds we have 75% chance to lose if we don't lynch him and 50% chance to lose if we do.
All of this is assuming he does not vote, so things change if he does.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until Day Three. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list. Replacements are greatly preferred over modkills, so please PM one of the hosts if you are willing to replace in and don't ask for the obs QT.
This is true, regardless of whether there is a replacement or not. We need activity for day three. I will leave my vote where it is until I see a good reason to vote for someone else, which I am actively looking for in filters.
Your post lists very good outcomes, and is very comprehensive. Well done.
I had some further thought about your post, and noticed that you treat TeMiL as a 50/50 town.scum player.
Considering that there are 7 players left, 2 are scum, 5 are town.. I think the probability should read 5/7 town, 2/7scum.
If you have the time, could you please re-jig the maths, and let us know what the difference is.
Will it still be favourable to town if we just lynch TeMiL?
Also, I had a thought about the no vote situation, and regardless of replacement I am not sure if we can consider the situation of TeMiL scum, and we lynch scum = instant win.
Because, if TeMiL is scum.. then all his actions have been pre-meditated and well considered. It would be completely out of character to follow this up with a mod kill. The chances are so close to 0% its not worth considering (in my opinion)
If we have any blue roles (there is a 3/4 baserate of town having at least one blue role), then having TeMiL as the only scum left would be a fairly easy victory for town.
I just had a look at TeMiL's post history here on TL. While it does fit that English is his second language, it looks like he's playing on it a little. Admittedly, it looks like this was his plan before he received his role. In the posts I read his writing was a little slack, but his grammar seemed better, and his posts were more thought out.
On January 03 2013 10:37 OmniEulogy wrote: Whoa didn't expect it to start tonight. I'm extremely tired guys and I was about to go to sleep till I saw the PM. I'll catch up tomorrow when I wake up x.x
Quickly though - for those of you who played with me last game my views stay the same for Policy lynches. We shouldn't lynch the lurkers D1 just because they aren't active, we need to actively scum hunt and push our top scum reads. I WILL lynch liars though. Townies don't need to lie in this game.
That's all I've got to say about that I'm looking forward to this getting going!
(1) Policy talk from all is typically meaningless fluff at the start. You say you will actively scum hunt.. but what have you contributed actively? A vote on zarepath.. because he votes no-lynch early game. that is not active scum hunting. That is prejudice. I can vote 100 people between now and deadline. its the vote at deadline that matters. First sign you need to step up your game.. the question is whether town or scum motivation.
To me, I take this 50/50. So null read.
How do you not include Omnis case on StriX as active scumhunting? Your reasoning for StriX being town is
I personally didnt like his requests.. BUT.. in newbie 33 there were other townies who voiced the same requests StriX.. (I am referring to medic to my marine Spag)... so I gave StriX some dispensation (based on my past experiences).
So you think his play is bad and you let it go because this is a newbie game? I could understand this if your townread on StriX was something more than giving him some dispensation.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Unvote: Zarepath given the three/four pages I need to catch up in and what I have read so far I don't believe my vote should still rest on Zare for this lynch. I think he has now contributed more than several others and it would be worse for town to lose him at this moment. I think TeMiL is just really bad town so I wont be voting for him either. I'll have a longer post written up shortly.
Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
(7) Interesting. The justification is quite weak to remove the vote.. He has contributed? big whoop, this is a piss poor attempt to move onto another target. You are admitting here your actual vote justification was weak, or even just sheeping. Again, how does that help town win? You never post your write-up either... I am on the thread 3-4hrs later, and its not there, what we get is a summary.
Your justification for removing your suspicions from Mocsta are even weaker. You only say
I am stuck with you. I don't think my case had confirmation bias (unfortunately only Corazon has commented). The problem is, on a re-read, and considering content since the case.. I do find some material to be incredibly town motivated.
Even if I ask you do not provide more reasonings for letting down your suspicions on him.
On January 05 2013 07:06 OmniEulogy wrote: My case on StriX.
Why he is my top scum read.
Syl gave him a very nice resume as Mocsta called it and made me look forward to what he would bring to the table to help us with his insight. However I have not seen any of it in nearly 48 hours. Perhaps a town StriX would make large posts and push strong scum reads however that is not what we have seen at all.
He plays a newbie card early on and on top of that votes for TeMiL and feels that after making that his only useful(?) post he should not be grouped together with him as a lurker.
@OmniEulogy by the way - if you reread I was the first to call out zarepath on his no-lynch so it's amusing to me that you use it as an argument then call me out for contributing nothing.
@cDGCorazon I shouldn't be grouped with TeMil.
If mentioning no-lynch is a massive contribution I must be severely missing something about this game. Especially after Syl brought up all the insight you bring to the game.
He follows up when asked why he doesn't pursue Zare with this
On January 04 2013 15:27 StriX wrote:
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
Basically, he wants to lurk and watch his target without forcing his scum read to actually answer any questions... thus giving him no new information. This is not a town way of scum hunting. It is scum pretending to hunt scum while allowing himself to continue to lurk. He also admits that Mocsta has fed him the names for his top scum reads at that point in time. No real searching involved.
We then have his take on Zare's case vs Syl and how to support/promote town play
On January 04 2013 21:19 StriX wrote: oops forgot this bit
On January 03 2013 22:47 StriX wrote: (2) [Mocsta] thus, how do you propose to support town play?
At this point transparent observations are my strength. Aggression for me is fun and all but very often seems to lead to situations we have with Sylencia v Zarepath.
He wants to lurk as town and offer no helpful information himself and use information other people gather to give his opinions. On top of this he then criticizes it when it is exactly what Syl had to do to answer Zare's case. It makes no sense considering it is exactly what he wants to watch happen. (have people question each other for information so he can make cases) The only problem with what happened was that a bandwagon did not form on a possibly innocent Syl and thus as scum he had nowhere to hitch his vote to.
He also backtracks on Zare just based on the fact that he no longer things the no-lynch would be scummy without a good reason. Stating "it was a ploy" and that is all.
At this point in time StriX has moved to my top scum read and therefore I am voting for him. ##Vote: StriX
(9) The vote on StriX. Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking.. Seriosly Omni... future games you roll as town, you need to let it go man.... Justification regarding StriX->zarepath is weak, but passable as a town motivation.
Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification.
While Omni may quote yuor comments, you never say that you are waiting for StriX to contribute a big post. And Omni does not talk policy in his case, he is accusing StriX of just talking policy.
Not to mention posting your case 1 hour before the deadline, even if, as you state yourself, you had your scumread atleast 10 hours beforehand. Your case on TeMiL seems like an excuse not to post a real case. Then you can just say that a coach gave you the advise to pursue your read and that is why posted it so late.
I urge everyone to go through Mocstas filter and re-evaluate, if his truly is town. His only big contributions are the cases on Omni and TeMiL, which reek of utter bullshit. Other than that he has just been leading the town to the direction he wants with his questions. What has he actually contributed since N1? Since D1? He has defended himself. I will post a bigger case later, but right now I need to leave for school.
Thank you for the case Jamp. I am currently completing a sweep of Omni's filter, which hopefully will help me assess your case on Mocsta's case on Omni.
I would like people not to shut this case down because of the potential OMGUS. Analyse it as of it were coming from someone that was not being voted by Mocsta. A scum would know that there are much easier ways to divert pressure from themselves than OMGUSing the person with the most town momentum.
Your case from a glance seems to have both some decent points and some logical limitations. I've got a lot on my plate and I'd like to finish what I was doing before addressing your post.
Your justification for removing your suspicions from Mocsta are even weaker. You only say
I'm gonna go play some RL for awhile (or Civ5, I haven't decided XD).
Since the night action I have completed Syl's, Jamp's, Zare's, TeMiL's and now Omni's filters. I am absolutely mentally exhausted, it's as if I've been thinking in circles the entire time. When I come back, I will be checking Mocsta's, which will also be damn exhausting.
I am starting to get the feeling that either Syl, Mocsta, or TeMiL are scum. Why you might ask? Because I'm not getting scummy enough reads off anyone else. TeMiL is nearly a null read on account of putting forth absolutely nothing, the main reason he could be scum is because giving us a null to read can only have scummy or not intention behind it.
Syl and Mocsta are now being read because I know that they are both capable of gaining town status as scum.
Mocsta has to go with an all out town holocaust of activity in order to keep with his previous meta, which basically means his level of activity is a null-read. He does not have a choice as to whether he is active or not.
Syl sits on the line of activity that I would call 'optimal scum activity'. He is not a lurker, and he has not need to lie or mislead town. Town has mislead themselves, so his near riskless play puts him in a perfect survival state where all he has to do is post analytic truths and town will detonate on their own.
I really don't like having to resort to this kind of thinking, but everyone else is looking townish to me. Everyone seems to be acting within the grounds of what I'd expect from them if they were town. This thinking is reductionist, in that if everyone else is a town read, it is my null reads that draw my attention. This is some epic theory crafting BS, but I'm feeling rather hopeless towards our chance to hit scum otherwise.
Mocsta will be the one I look at when I get back, then either Syl or TeMiL depending on what happens between now and then. If someone thinks I'm wrong (and if I'm wrong, I'm very, very wrong), polease correct me.
@jampidampi Thank you for bringing some life to this otherwise stagnant Day2.
I have constantly cried out for activity... and there.... it was.
FINALLY.. a case to read. Even better it was specially attentioned to me. How quaint of you
an eye for an eye, or in mafia games, a vote for a vote,.
jampidampi, with permission to speak freely...this Day2, you were the source of my greatest enjoyment...
unfortunately... all things must come to and end... you see... I began to read the case; and my feelings of enjoyment diminished. Morphed into its place.. was hollow disapointment.
I don't know what was a bigger waste of time... your attempt at a case, or my pressing of the F5 key for a refresh? Since I am still a gentleman at heart; I will not try to embarass you with a point-by-point detail of your "attempt at a case".
Rather, I will throw some pointers for you, that you can use for your "bigger case later", I suspect still on me of course. Let us call this case 2.0
Mocsta: jampidampi case2.0 tips for improvement
@jampidampi
For your next case, may I suggest you the following:
Pass the case onto your coach Toadesstern. Let him help you remove the OMGUS vibe from the case.
Actually apply your "self-proclaimed" analytical skills and discuss motives, rather than insert innuendo (on my behalf).
While your at it.. remember I wrote my posts. So.. I know when you have intentionally cut out key components of my posts I also know when you have misinterpreted my comments (lets be nice and say it was unintentional...) and in particular.. I even know OmniEulogy was shitting bricks over my case.. admitting it was a "MONSTER" case.
Thus to conclude, I welcome your case 2.0.
It will present an opportunity for me to dissect your thinking, and present "self-contributed" evidence to town on your scum behaviour(s).
Guys.. dont want this getting lost in a sea of Day2 waste of time cases. On January 07 2013 13:11 Mocsta wrote: Sylencia.
Your post lists very good outcomes, and is very comprehensive. Well done.
I had some further thought about your post, and noticed that you treat TeMiL as a 50/50 town.scum player.
Considering that there are 7 players left, 2 are scum, 5 are town.. I think the probability should read 5/7 town, 2/7scum.
If you have the time, could you please re-jig the maths, and let us know what the difference is.
Will it still be favourable to town if we just lynch TeMiL?
Also, I had a thought about the no vote situation, and regardless of replacement I am not sure if we can consider the situation of TeMiL scum, and we lynch scum = instant win.
Because, if TeMiL is scum.. then all his actions have been pre-meditated and well considered. It would be completely out of character to follow this up with a mod kill. The chances are so close to 0% its not worth considering (in my opinion)
Oh, you are talking about lynching TeMiL and him being scum?
That's not an instant win, but it would put it into town favour IMO. It would give us an extra day before lynchorlose, but not really give us any leads as to who is the second scum. It would still be a massive victory for town.
On January 07 2013 15:34 Spaghetticus wrote: Oh, you are talking about lynching TeMiL and him being scum?
That's not an instant win, but it would put it into town favour IMO. It would give us an extra day before lynchorlose, but not really give us any leads as to who is the second scum. It would still be a massive victory for town.
Spag, may I be kind to direct to you to the below.
On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I am highly analytical and loathe posting accusations that imply a reality I do not believe. I adhere to theory over empiricism,
I am self-confessed, not much of a numbers man; I would appreciate with your analytical mind, if you could take the time to crunch the numbers, using the 5/7 theory, Sylencia was working on.
Considering you only post comments you believe in, I assume you already crunched these numbers, when you said, it would give town a favourable chance It would only be natural to assume that right?
I wasn't goign to ask, you being busy with RL and all.. but considering you had the time to post your response, figured you would be active enough to help out a non-numbers guy.
Temil Town, Mislynch: 2-2 after night action, we lose. Temil Town, Scum lynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Mislynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Scum lynch: We win (probably wishful thinking at this point)
If we lynch Temil: Town: 3-2, MYLO Scum: 4-1
I personally don't think this recalculation is worth it because he will be replaced if he doesn't vote, but since you asked:
Assuming probability of a mislynch is 5/6 if Temil is scum and 4/6 if Temil is Town (aka completely random):
(2) To refresh, the whole reason I raised the 5/7 town, vs 50/50 town calculation is because you concluded that Town is in a favourable position by voting TeMiL; you also maintained your vote on TeMiL. When I did the math, I was taking a more simplistic approach But hey, Im a simple guy.
[I am not concerned with no-vote condition, it is not guaranteed + getting a replacement anyways]
So taking your logic and applying the absolute basics...
Town (5/7) : 3-2, MYLO Scum (2/7): 4-1 (good position)
5/7 = 72% of MYLO situation (This is a general percentage that can be applied if we lynch anyone not Town) This can be interpretted as... we need to be very selective for Day2 lynch candidate.. if we choose wrong, there is a 72% chance of "Mis-Lynch and Lose" for Day3.
Because I know I am town, the actual probabilities from my perspective is: + Show Spoiler +
Town (4/6) : 3-2, MYLO Scum (2/6): 4-1 (good position)
4/6 = 66% of MYLO situation This is still unfavourable action for town, and thus, I can not advocate this path based on probabilities.
Well, you might counter by saying.. lets gamble on the odds, and use the information we know (i.e. assumed town players). Well.. besides myself, i feel certain on 2 players being town.. 2 are null.. and 2 i have severe suspicions of (and have voted for 1 of those 2).
If include my 2 town reads (and myself) the odds change to: + Show Spoiler +
Town (2/4) : 3-2, MYLO Scum (2/4): 4-1 (good position)
2/4 = 50% of MYLO situation 50% odds are still unfavourable to town... Do we really want to put this game into a coin flip?
The whole point of the scum hunt is make the odds for town >50%...
Thus, I can not place a vote on TeMiL solely due to probabilities. I think the window of opportunity has passed to vote this way.
I shall conclude, as I did the post where I defended TeMiL being lynched.http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=33#642 I am not asking you join me on jampidampi. You need to consider for yourself if you think his filter is scum motivated.
I moreso ask that you reconsider the vote on TeMiL. He is an easy lynch bait target for mafia to jump on; and his lynching will result in a MYLO situation, potentially without a unanimously agreed scum target.
The implication of TeMiL being lynched on Day2 is [ALMOST] a guaranteed loss of game for town
Right, I see what you were asking about now, and your probabilities are right. However, you have to factor in that if you keep him in, you are keeping him in in a MYLO situation if we mislynch someone else, because the chances he gets killed off by scum is so low. This goes back to your original case of asking 'Do you want to bring Temil into that kind of situation?'
If you don't mind, then voting someone else is the better option. If you do mind though, you'd have to consider the probability you win after keeping him to day 3.
On January 07 2013 16:24 Sylencia wrote: This goes back to your original case of asking 'Do you want to bring Temil into that kind of situation?'
If you don't mind, then voting someone else is the better option. If you do mind though, you'd have to consider the probability you win after keeping him to day 3.
Completely know what you are saying here.
I think its a situation that has to be evaluated Day3.
I think for Day2, we have to try to eliminate mafia; at least we build up a safety day, (outnumber 4-1)..
On Day3 with the safey day, if there isnt a strong scum read, and use the buffer to vote off TeMiL, and go into Day4 with MYLO.
tl;dr For Day2, I think we have to vote a scum read.
I just got rudely woken up by my cat... I'm extremely out of it but from what I've read and what I understand at 2:30 in the morning... if your % are right and I can explain this clearly enough, I believe yourself and Syl to be confirmed town. I've decided that at this point (and after reading everybody's filters while I was alone all day) that if you(mocsta) are scum we've lost but I'm convinced you are town and syl is a town read. I Know I am town and although it is a lot to ask I'm begging you to trust me on that. That leaves us with 3 players, 4 with TeMiL that are possible scum. I believe that gives us slightly better than 50% odds on a scum lynch.
Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi.
I'm gonna go get a drink and then on my way back to bed I'll see if anybody else is awake. Idk how long I'll be up either way though lol and if this makes less sense than normal... well... I'm tired
On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote: I just got rudely woken up by my cat... I'm extremely out of it but from what I've read and what I understand at 2:30 in the morning... if your % are right and I can explain this clearly enough, I believe yourself and Syl to be confirmed town. I've decided that at this point (and after reading everybody's filters while I was alone all day) that if you(mocsta) are scum we've lost but I'm convinced you are town and syl is a town read. I Know I am town and although it is a lot to ask I'm begging you to trust me on that. That leaves us with 3 players, 4 with TeMiL that are possible scum. I believe that gives us slightly better than 50% odds on a scum lynch.
Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi.
I'm gonna go get a drink and then on my way back to bed I'll see if anybody else is awake. Idk how long I'll be up either way though lol and if this makes less sense than normal... well... I'm tired
Omni..
will you be online in say 7hrs? If so, I will ensure that I am available for discussions (will be 11pm my time).
Lynches at at 08:00am for me.. I can be there from 0600 to 0800, but between 0200 and 0600 is asking too much and the final 2hrs are not enough for town to evaluate a good case (as I proved on Day 1)
Yeah. I can be on for that. Alternately we can also look at TeMiL as useless town in which case we've got 66% chance to hit scum in Jampi, Zare and Spag. At this point if one scum ISN'T in that group we're fucked.
On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote: Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi.
Omni... I agree on your choice of 4 possibilities for scum.
jampidampi spaghetticus
zarepath TeMiL
Below are my rough outlines of thoughts on the four candidates. TeMiL + Show Spoiler +
obivously a loose cannon, and not even posting currently, hence null read. I think the best approach is to focus on lynching a scum, and dealing with TeMiL day 3... he might even get replaced the way this is going.
For me. i still think his motives are town based, but obviously real life has gotten in the way of more contributions. Because of this I would say null with a town vibe (which is what I have been saying since Day 1). If you can find scum motivations, I am more than willing to hear them out and consider him as a candidate (due to being null)
TL;DR I still think his actions are taken with town in mind. He may be aggressive, but heck, so am I and OmniEulogy.
Many, Many fishy things in his play... but he has also been active. I think the second scum is between TeMiL (no read) and spaghetticus. Best approach I think is to leave for Day3, and monitor his voting activities for Day 2. (Will be difficult as he changes his vote a lot)
TL;DR Leave for Day 3; his actions on day 2 may go a long way to proving innocence.
Has been weak all game, filter is minimal (just over 1 page); and has only released information when asked. All classic scum traits. Then there is the case on me (if you can even call it a case). That is so riddled with lack of conviction, you can actually visualize him shaking while typing because he knows hes just creating and fabricating meanings for his (scum) agenda.
TL;DR This is my #1 scum read. Was before his case on me, and is definitely after his case on me.
With the last post Omni... treat TeMiL as useless town.. 33% of scum for jampidampi, spag, zarepath.
I think spag/zarepath/TeMiL can be worked on Day 3.
as you said, jampidampi is the easiest candidate, as I outlined above.
I shall re-iterate with my vote from prior.
On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote: ... ##VOTE: Jampidampi ...
##Vote: Jampidampi I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion. Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
@Mocsta. I change who I pressure a lot, I do not change my vote a lot. So far I have voted TeMiL, and switched to StriX in day one, and voted for TeMiL in day two, though this could change as well if he'd show up and defend himself. I think this voting formula very similar to your own, and I'll disregard it as an honest mistake on your part to think this.
I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly. We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%. What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
##Vote: Jampidampi I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion. Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
@Omni This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, you are simplifying things out of laziness. I don't think Jamp is a terrible lynch, though my designs obviously lay elsewhere. I don't mind people voting for Jamp, but don't make up reasons for doing so if you are only acting out of laziness.
On January 07 2013 20:13 Spaghetticus wrote: @Omni This is lazy sheeping. [b]NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum[b], that would make this game damn easy. [b]NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, ....
Hi Spag.
You have convinced me about NKs. What you said there, is spoken with [true] conviction.. straight out of the 'proverbial' horses mouth.
Guess you were right when you said the below...
[B]On January 03 2013 19:51 Spaghetticus wrote: I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour.
On January 07 2013 20:13 Spaghetticus wrote: @Omni This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, ....
Hi Spag.
You have convinced me about NKs. What you said there, is spoken with [true] conviction.. straight out of the 'proverbial' horses mouth.
Guess you were right when you said the below...
On January 03 2013 19:51 Spaghetticus wrote: I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour.
Is this sarcasm? You are allowing the imagination to go almost anywhere with your provocative comments.
I know what an NK is, or do you think Omni's insight superior? Treating an NK as anything but what I called it
NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results
Would be absolutely fracking retarded. It does not take a scum to know that this is how an NK works, it doesn't even take a particularly well informed town.
How do YOU think we should think about NK's? Am I wrong? Do you think it beyond my intelligence to infer this much with both my penchant for theory crafting and the abundance of guides laying around? You don't even know whether I use coaches or not and you assume that I don't know what an NK is? This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive or been incongruous in your understanding of my thoughts.
This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
On January 07 2013 21:06 Spaghetticus wrote: This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive.
This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
Don't u worry Spag.. you me, or Syl are not dying tonight.. Its still Day 2, just in case you forgot.
Just so you know.. My interests are firmly trenched with the Day 2 lynch. Town has a golden opportunity to lynch scum, and we all need to band together. Naturally you are welcome to join us.
Now. Just in case your post clutter has made it forgotten who the prime target for Day 2 is.
Let me remind you.
On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote: ... ##VOTE: Jampidampi ...
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta. I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly.
We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%.
What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
Wow.. you are doing your best to campaign for TeMiL arent you... you know..
Since you directed this post at myself.. i will personally do the courtesy of breaking this down into (4) components for you.
(1)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta. (1)I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly.
Town is losing... odd logic? 7 players... 5 - town; 2 - scum... how are we losing?
If we vote off a scum player and 1 town dies from NK; we are left Day 3 with 4 (Town) and 1 (Mafia), does not sound like losing to me? Heck, even right now 5 to 2.. it doesnt look like losing.. This is such an interesting perspective you have Spaghetticus.
If I point you to the "guide to playing mafia" in the OP; A townies first priority is to establish innocence.. (the 2nd is to read posts; 3rd is to scum hunt) Out of 7 players.. i have confidence 3 are innocent; have townish reads on 2, and scummish reads on 2.. doesnt look like a losing position to me?
TL;DR How can town be in a losing position we we out number scum. 5 town to 2 scum?.. Even after a mislynch and NK, we are still outnumbered scum, 3 town to 2 scum.. Town is in a position to scum hunt.. make a calculated lynch decision...vote as one town... and lynch scum; paving our way to victory.
(2)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote: We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%.
Well Spag.. 50% just aint good enough for me as I suggested in the Sylencia vetted vote logic (linked above). The objective of the scum hunt is to raise that % as high as positive, and I agree with OmniEulogy, we can get the top scum reads down to 2 or 3 players, thus increasing the probability to lynch scum to over 50%. A fine town goal to achieve.
Why are you against this again?
TL;DR Town can achieve success through determined scum hunting, and joining our vote together. This will set us up for a 4 Town, 1 Mafia Day 3. We need to join our votes together
(3)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote: What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Agreed, we need the highest scum lynch possibility. We we use deduction, and eliminate sound town reads we can achieve 50% scum lynch rate. If we take a gamble, and eliminate null reads, we can achieve a 66% scum lynch rate (3 candidates, 2 = scum, 1 = bad town).
If you disagree on using deduction to remove town reads.. let me point you to Spaghetticus from a former life. (Newbie Mafia 33.. btw.. you were town)
On December 20 2012 13:26 Spaghetticus wrote: "I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum."
Well.. i agree with a lot of this. Good towns can find scum, day 1, day 2 or day 3.. In fact it gets easier from Day 1 -> Day 2. We have a good town, so using your logic, we have no reason not to chase scum.
Why are you advocating we vote TeMiL again?
TL;DR By using deduction to remove good town reads. We can reduce the possible mafia players from 7 players, down to 3 or 4.. This increases our chance of lynching scum up to 66%.. We can increase this further by additional scum hunting.
(4)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote: Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
Well. we didn't just remove null reads. Read the Sylencia Vetted Vote Logic. We treated 3 scenarios. 1. The generic, 5 town, 2 mafia to consider. 2. The town perspective.. 4 town, 2 mafia to consider (don't incldue yourself.. assuming you are town) 3. The deduction perspective.. . 2 town, 2 mafia to consider. (with 3 recognised townies)
We left the null reads in there.. interesting you didn't pick up on this Spag, especially for an analyst with a keen eye such as yourself.
TL;DR Spag misquotes here, but we will give him benefit of the doubt. Perhaps real life led him to posting in haste.
Spag, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I disagree with your reasoning to vote TeMiL. I suggest town join forces on one lynch candidate.
BTW, Out of respect for TeMiL.. I need this to be clear.
On January 05 2013 00:02 TeMiL wrote: ive just make a chart with your connections. i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says: TeMiL - Peru Sylencia - Australia Spaghetticus - Australia Mocsta - Australia StriX - Australia OmniEulogy - Canada jampidampi - Finland cDgCorazon - USA zarepath - USA
i need to make some conclusiones with this information
On December 20 2012 12:48 Chromatically wrote: @Spag Our objective as town is to lynch mafia. What we should not be doing is lynching for information instead of lynching mafia. The information gained from a flip is not great enough that we should lynch a townier player. If you look at what shz's post actually says, there's very little actual conclusions that could be drawn. Most of it is just "x is possible scum". All of it is just worrying about the d2 lynch, which we should do on d2 instead of now. I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum. Who do you want to lynch right now?
@Kickstart Come on, you have to do better than that. You're the most experienced player here and you haven't said anything for 24h. What do you think about my cases on Corazon/FC?
And yet this mistake seems to obvious to be made by a scum Mocsta...
whats the problem? I extracted the important component.
If i had somethign i hide, I would NOT have inserted the Date/Time stamp.
You are going to have to try harder than that.
Good you see your grasping at (very short) straws.
Fact...TeMiL's post, still has more value than yours... + Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 00:02 TeMiL wrote: ive just make a chart with your connections. i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says: TeMiL - Peru Sylencia - Australia Spaghetticus - Australia Mocsta - Australia StriX - Australia OmniEulogy - Canada jampidampi - Finland cDgCorazon - USA zarepath - USA
i need to make some conclusiones with this information
Town is losing... odd logic? 7 players... 5 - town; 2 - scum... how are we losing?
If we vote off a scum player and 1 town dies from NK; we are left Day 3 with 4 (Town) and 1 (Mafia), does not sound like losing to me? Heck, even right now 5 to 2.. it doesnt look like losing.. This is such an interesting perspective you have Spaghetticus.
Your rebuttal pertaining to whether town is currently losing is so full of holes it's almost non-existent. If town does not outnumber scum, town loses by definition, check the OP. It follows that in order for scum to ever stand a chance, they must be winning before they are on equal numbers with town. The precise number is up for conversation, but that scum is losing until it has won is absolutely preposterous. I understand the need to have a positive town atmosphere, but we also need to be realistic about what is happening and adjust our strategy to match.
I will admit, that if you have more confidence in your scum reads than I do, it would make sense that you think you're winning. I am certain you are more confident in your reads than I am, which means your perspective of whether town is winning would be very different to mine.
Your confidence would also explain why you are trying to create a bandwagon with the very response I reply to:
You already have the most established bandwagon, and then you post stuff like:
Town is in a position to scum hunt.. make a calculated lynch decision...vote as one town... and lynch scum; paving our way to victory.
Town can achieve success through determined scum hunting, and joining our vote together. This will set us up for a 4 Town, 1 Mafia Day 3. We need to join our votes together
Which is unfortunate because I really want you to be scum so I don't have to address the possibility that this blatant misstep is by accident.
F5ed to find yet another arrogant response. Wanna know why I think you are overconfident? BECAUSE ITS NOT A QUOTE FROM ME. LOOK AT THE FRICKING AUTHOR. You are playing fast and lose, and you're making some big mistakes. I know that if I talked to a coach, he'd tell me I need to play less conservative with my reads, but you are batshitcrazyliberal with yours and I think this sort of play will end with a loss for town.
For those reading, Mocsta just tried to misquote me on a past game. Instead of quoting me denouncing unconfident play, he quoted a guy called Chromatically denouncing MY unconfident play. He tried to sell you evidence of me adhering to my accepted meta as reasons why I am not.
The number of mistakes Mocsta is making is astonishing. Mocsta, if you do not slow down you are going to make a case for us. If you are town you need to think through your posts. If you are a lying town then you are doing it badly. I have no idea how you could misquote me like that by accident, even with the standard errata at the top telling us that it was written by me. If you want absolute proof that my version of events is correct go HERE and search "Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty." You will find that Mocsta has somehow got mixed up, and accidentally made a forgery of a quote by Chromatically . He even had the gall to gloat at my incompetence.
But this does not make sense. Unless a scum Mocsta genuinely thought scum were losing at this point, why would he take the risk of forging a quote? My head is melting... I need some time to think...
Theres no evidence of Chromatically posting that in my quote (check the time stamps if you want to be meticulous; so your point is moot.
Any ways, nice attempt @ a diversion.. you have not addressed any of the points. Again, this revised post of yours is a waste of an F5.
LOL "if town does not outnumber scum, town loses by definition" of course, and right now, we outnumber scum.. hence.. town is not in a losing position.
Either way.. im not bothering with your feeble attempts to derail the thread, and the conversation
It is obvious, there is no value to voting off TeMiL due to probability.
Town, we are in a position to scum hunt... make a calculated lynch decision... VOTE AS ONE TOWN... and lynch scum.
OmniEulogy and myself, believe jampidampi is the best candidate for lynch. We have expressed this with our vote.
If you think otherwise, please share your thoughts.
Thank Christ... that was doing my head in. That's good enough for me. Don't down play the significance of that event... I had very good reason to think you blatantly lying. You were only blatantly mistaken. The post you actually quoted was me quoting his post to address it, but using actual quotation marks instead of BBcode because I was too lazy at that point to learn. If you had have paid attention to what I was writing instead of looking for ways to feed your confirmation bias, this misdemeanor would have never happened.
This is behind us.
I'm not sure we need to continue this discussion on whether town is winning. Your reasoning is ridiculous, but I will drop this topic until there is a good reason to restart it, which is quite possible as I'm going to need to go over these figures again.
I don't want people to even consider sheeping Jamp until Omni has addressed my criticism of the following post:
##Vote: Jampidampi I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion. Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
Which is
@Omni This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, you are simplifying things out of laziness. I don't think Jamp is a terrible lynch, though my designs obviously lay elsewhere. I don't mind people voting for Jamp, but don't make up reasons for doing so if you are only acting out of laziness.
Until Omni justifies his vote, this bandwagon only has one person who has explained his voting process. Mocsta is explicitly flaunting his influence even though he has done little to actually earn it. Yes he doesn't come up as a scum-read, but that by no means makes him confirmed town.
EVERYTHING HE HAS DONE IS EXPECTED BY HIS META. HE HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO PLAY EXTREMELY ACTIVE.
Do not think that just because he says it you need to do it.
If he is town he thinks he has a better read than you and needs to mindcontrol you into following.
If he is scum he is closing the game out for us by exploiting his influence.
Neither of these are good reasons to follow him.
Even if he is town I see no reason why he is better at reading than any of us, he spends more time on broad strokes than he does on analysis, as can be seen with the whole 'misquote escapade'. The only reason he would know better than any of us is if he were a blue role, and we know he's not a JK.
You can read my resistance to Mocsta's Imperialistic rule as scummy or wary town, I'm not doing this to establish a read so hear my words. If they make sense then polease listen to them.
Jesus, we're trying to find scum here, I just got home so this is what I am going to do. First, I am going to read jampi's filter, and then I am going to read Omni's filter. Then I am going to decide on who I will place my vote for, for now, where I will then listen to what you two say.
Stop having in-fights, it's hurting us more than it's helping.
If you think on your feet unlike Omni, we won't need to fight as I will have won (though I guess this is not to the mutual exclusion of Mocsta's agenda).
I find it interesting how many times Spag has intentionally tried to stop meaningful discussion and derail it with a bogus thought process. I was barely awake and just noted something in Jampi's filter that also incriminates him, by all means though you could actually try to help town win at some point this game. I'd appreciate it.
I can't count the number of strange mistakes you've made this game and odd questions that imply you haven't read the OP. You want to talk about sheeping, your switch to StriX from TeMiL is the biggest sheep in the game so far along with Zare on me.
On January 08 2013 00:22 Spaghetticus wrote: I would prefer any of the other three (including Jamp), but would not be entirely opposed to lynching Zare. I think there are better targets.
@Zare Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game.
Spag. I am going to need you to re-phase (i.e. spell it out to me) because i can't make sense of your quote?
I dunno what "wb" is short for. I've read the thread and am now scouring a filter.
"Closing the game out for us" is almost exclusively used when the subject of the sentence (in this case, a Mocsta scum) is part of the first-person plural of "us."
EBWOP: Unless the phraseology or usage is different in Australia, I suppose -- any Australian want to chime in on this? Maybe it's nit-picking, but that kind of slip does happen -- I did it when I was mafia before.
I didn't even call you scum... I asked you to justify your vote... ... ... so do it.
I've already detailed my day one switch. We don't need to go over that unless someone makes a case against me (and it'd be bad if it contained this particular aspect of my play).
wb = welcome back even though its nice to catch mafia by slips. it still cant be proven. so becomes not a waste of time, but.. hmm.. not a solid foundation for a case.
I noticed the exact same thing you did when Spag posted.
*why did I not bring this to the attention* because, he can answer the way he just did.. us = town.
Good to know others are reading carefully though as well.
On January 08 2013 00:22 Spaghetticus wrote: I would prefer any of the other three (including Jamp), but would not be entirely opposed to lynching Zare. I think there are better targets.
@Zare Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game.
Spag. I am going to need you to re-phase (i.e. spell it out to me) because i can't make sense of your quote?
I have a preference for TeMiL at this moment in time, and then the rest in order of presentation above. There is a lot of contention in my mind, this is not at all close. My stubbornness in regard to Jampi is more to do with the means by which you present your case, which is from my perspective abusing peripheral and illogical argumentation methods. That does not fly with me, for future reference.
When actually looking at the case in question, I don't have any profound disagreement with lynching Jamp, only that I won't do it for someone else's less than adequate reasons. This may look very flimsy, but between the four I'm pretty lost. There is scum in there of that I'm certain, but the diversity of reasons for and against voting any one of these candidates is high, and I don't feel strongly either way.
On January 06 2013 09:24 OmniEulogy wrote: gg Cora. I was role blocked.
This is curious. Why would OmniEulogy be roleblocked? A jailkeeper would target someone he believes will be killed. Scum had no motivation to kill Omni, because he was the other suspicious player D1 and thus would be pressured at least N1, if not D2 potentially leading to another misslynch. Many pointed that if StriX flips town (which he did), Omni would be very suspicious. A jailkeeper could also potentially target a scumread in hopes that a) he is scum and b) he carries out the nightkill. Even if he was 100% sure that Omni was scum, that would still only lead to 50/50 chance of blocking the kill. Thus I don't this is likely. A scum roleblocker would target Omni if he thought he had a blue role. A scum roleblocker might target Omni in hopes that he claims and someone suspects this claim.
@All Should townies always claim being roleblocked in this setup? Do you think the scum roleblocker would target Omni? Or do think he faked the claim? Or do you have any better reasoning for a jailkeeper to target Omni?
This is attempted analysis, but it doesn't say anything at all. Doesn't state if he thinks it's a RB or JK, it's just statements which could have been drawn pretty easily by anyone.
The case on Mocsta is the only other big post on day 2, it's not really a solid case either. It honestly rates about the same level as Strix's case he posted which I said was weak on Day 1 as well.
2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
By not being suspicious. If they are careful and appear as townies, we don't have a way of identifying them as scum. Just flying under the radar while townies aggressively blame eachother leading to a misslynch is a perfect mafia D1.
Jampi, you're flying under the radar more than pretty much anyone here. Are you following your own advice or are you just playing badly?
---
Omni:
Again, from day 1 I wasn't happy with the combination of sentences here:
On January 05 2013 05:46 OmniEulogy wrote: Alright, I'm not sure if I can get the whole thing out in under an hour so I'm going to make a summary for you Jampi so we can talk about it a bit while I continue to write up the bigger one.
I'll start with the people I don't think we should vote for in this lynch.
I believe Mocsta and Spag should be free of suspicion for this lynch entirely.
TeMiL and StriX I believe we should wait until D2 TeMiL I think is just bad town and I don't think a vote on him is the BEST we could do.
StriX says he makes long analytical posts. I'm waiting to see one. He hasn't delivered in 48 hours and I am most likely going to put my vote on him.
Makes absolutely no sense, not sure if he suddenly forgot he was going to vote Strix from the start.
On January 05 2013 09:29 OmniEulogy wrote: I should also add on, and I fking HATE to say this but I need to. If I am right about StriX and he is scum. This is EXACTLY what his scum buddy would need to do to get him off the firing line. Create massive confusion with an hour left in D1 and save his mafia buddy.
On January 05 2013 09:47 OmniEulogy wrote: @Syl I know, I really wanted to avoid even mentioning an association case.
Why even bring up the association case then? It's like a weak way to reinforce Strix's guilt onto others, and it was completely avoidable by simply saying "I think Mocsta did this to confuse everyone and cause an easy mislynch."
After the mislynch, I don't understand why he thinks there was no chance of him being voted out - the case against him could've easily swayed town to vote, and unless the numbers weren't going to add up to his lynching - this could be a slip. But, I don't see how one could guarantee that, so probably not.
Day 2, roleblocking time. Mod question asked, pretty sure it's a useless question because there is no real reason for OE to be RB'd unless he made blue slips - didn't see any. JK I can understand if they followed Spag's advice from the previous night. Having no fear of being lynched D1 is not a blue tell, because you are just as vulnerable to being lynched as anyone else. The worst thing about being blue in that situation is that if you do reveal your role - you're not saved, you're dead that night.
Next up is the useless question of asking about a Cop. 2 things are what this looks like: 1) Bait for if there is a cop, 2) A way to fluff up any discussion. There wasn't anything going on, but there's nothing to discuss about a cop. It's not something we needed to discuss, and it doesn't provide any useful hints for town, only scum (if they suspected there was a cop).
On January 07 2013 05:24 OmniEulogy wrote: We don't even know if there is a cop, and if everybody gives their speculation I highly doubt it helps scum very much, especially as multiple people would have the same opinions. This is more about the way people are thinking at the moment not You ARE the cop. Clearly being 2 townies down and having a 3rd on the way to being lynched isn't bothering you very much. Plus we're only looking for 2 scum. If we can (and we need to) lynch scum tonight we'll hopefully have a JK and possibly a cop (best case scenario) N2.
Why are you so against giving out your thoughts on the matter? You already have a vote on you, clear up some of the concerns voiced and give us your opinion.
It still helps them, and you're not saying anything about how it could possibly help town. Pretty much at this point I'm seeing this as a way to publicly work out if/who is the cop. Again, NOT helpful for town. We don't need to know about it until it's a critical moment where the game can be won, or if there's a chance they are dead.
On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote: Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch.
Town don't look for easy lynches, scum do. Wake up. We search for scum.
On January 07 2013 17:03 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Vote: Jampidampi I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion. Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
Not a case, lol. Scum have all the information, and can abuse this pretty easily. If zare died last night, I'm scum because he pressured me early on in Day 1? No, unlikely as that's a move that is clear as day for anyone with half a brain. Of course though, they want everyone to see that and ignoring everything else, and essentially target the person that the person who got killed targetted. (Probably a less wordy way to say that).
--
Basically, jampi still looks suspicious as hell, no real contribution, trying to fly under the radar in Day 2 - still giving no real clues to his being town (if he is at all), but the last few posts Omni have made while what seems to be half-asleep really makes me wonder if he just slipped up.
Lesson learned from NMM33: People make slips. If you ignore them, you could lose the game from it.
When I read 'close the game out for us' I just assumed that would mean town because in both scenarios where he is town and scum, it would mean town there :\
(Also, I thought close the game out meant losing, but it means winning? I don't even know)
In regards to slips.. due to zarepath and now Sylencia.
"General Guide to playing Mafia"
In general, mafia don’t blatantly make “slips” that allow you to find them through any one given post, but you will often find one critical sentence or post that is the key to unraveling their motives.
Regardless, you have identified a variety of points, OmniEulogy does need to address this.
The point about slips is that they don't realise it. Omni was in the perfect psychological state (half-awake) for him to be slipping. The defense will come though, and I'll see if it's better than I move onto jampi then.
on StriX, I made up my mind on who to vote for as I was writing it so it sounded a bit weird. I realized that if I was going to write everything I was going to I would actually run out of players and wouldn't be voting for any of them, so I took my top scum read and voted for him.
My mention of association was because I wanted people to realize that StriX was not being lynched without being defended. Somebody WAS trying to prevent his lynch and claiming that scum wasn't making a fuss. That in itself could be taken as scum trying to save him and get me lynched in his place D1. Unlike NMM XXXIII I didn't have a town read on StriX (as opposed to Shz) and I will never let myself get lynched for somebody I don't believe is town.
You claim Jampi is ONLY the easiest lynch? He's also my top scum read. I worked it out for you while I was half asleep but didn't make the full case... cause I was half asleep. Trying to read any further into that and then saying "not a case" Well no shit sherlock I wanted to go back to bed. lol.
On January 08 2013 01:33 Sylencia wrote: Actually, I don't understand the ONLY in that sentence.
Top. Scum. Read. He's not the easiest because there are no other factors. It's the easiest because out of everybody he's easily the scummiest player in the game and has the highest chance of being scum. Put it in context of the conversation over the last few pages.
@Syl Not that Omni has replied.. Im not entirely satisfied but thats more to do with his style than the response.
I also appreciate he didnt spend 2hrs making a defense, and holding up the entire Day2 convo.
Take the below with a grain of salt.. because I am a feel player, definitely not a detailed analyst (and yes, Spaghetticus constantly is pointing that out.. and I will not contest)
I thought that a lot of your points while valid, whilst you described the actions as scum motivated.. in my head i could ratoinalise them as town.
I wanted to hear Omni defense.. because.. if he respectuflly brushed off your comments.. then it was simply miscommunication between two players (heheh.. almost identical to me targeting him day 1 actually).
my opinion is a lot of Omni play has been pro-town. He has two peculiarities of play to me
(1) is the RB.. it just doesnt add up; but then again.. TeMiL/zarepath have said nothing (also.. if JK is around. mafia may have said nothign..) (2) he was extremely overconfident after day 1 lynch.. . i think this was moreso to do with realising the bandwagon didnt take off (Corazon points this out as well in his final post)
Right, the wording of that statement just now was kinda weird to me, since I understood it completely differently to what you meant.
You could have used "most correct lynch", "most scummy player", "scummiest". Why did you use "easiest"? It's actually a horrible word to use when town when talking about lynches, and if you were saying he's easily the scummiest player, the sentence did not exactly convey that meaning.
On January 08 2013 01:46 Sylencia wrote: Right, the wording of that statement just now was kinda weird to me, since I understood it completely differently to what you meant.
You could have used "most correct lynch", "most scummy player", "scummiest". Why did you use "easiest"? It's actually a horrible word to use when town when talking about lynches, and if you were saying he's easily the scummiest player, the sentence did not exactly convey that meaning.
sorry
Yeah I'm actually writing it on another page right now Mocsta
But i would word jampidampi as the easier lynch of the 2 mafia as well.
I have had very strong suspicions of the 2nd mafia.. but have been trying to keep pressure on only 1 player, to avoid association cases.
my problem, and something that needs to be evaluated is zarepath. His hawking/lurking is very over the top.. and though he added justification for swapping votes.. *ANYBODY* can write rational after the event (and with 1 day to pass through the coaches, it can be refined to sound like town)
So I am confused with how to handle zarepath... what do you think?
I am going to bed. My preferred candidates are Omni, Zare, and TeMiL, and I will settle for any of them. I'll try and get up in three hours so I can influence the lynch if it is not going the way I intend. I have certain changes to my plan if particular events happen.
On January 08 2013 01:59 Spaghetticus wrote: I am going to bed. My preferred candidates are Omni, Zare, and TeMiL, and I will settle for any of them. I'll try and get up in three hours so I can influence the lynch if it is not going the way I intend. I have certain changes to my plan if particular events happen.
On January 08 2013 01:00 Spaghetticus wrote: I could be persuaded to vote for:
- TeMiL - OmniEulogy - JampiDampi - ZarePath
Dont forget you said you could be persuaded for jampidampi
This is broken into several pieces. First is consistent non-contributions: + Show Spoiler +
First real post is a list with resources, and a plan to pursue "more standard play" which involves not being as passive. On Day 1, the majority of Spag's posts are lists (people who played last game), theory (lying town, LAL), the fact that he has null reads on people, comments on the weather, and more theory, and more theory, and even more theory. What happened to standard play with case analysis? Instead he goes off on lurkers, talks about TeMiL being a lurker, and then doesn't actually end up voting for him. Read through Spag's filter Day 1 and just look at the number of posts he made that contributed literally zero to forwarding analysis on any single individual. The only real analysis he does is to suspect-but-not-suspect Mocsta and OE, and retaliations to Mocsta for going after his soft townie claim. He condemns the countries thing (easy), too.
Now look at everything since then. More theory and numbers and probabilities, talking about talking about coaches (when he's already done it himself), most of his analysis is about TeMiL and the potential possibilities depending upon who he is, which involves zero analysis because he hasn't even posted -- talk about easy prey. Asks if there was a second role block, all of the possible setups, if others have seen blue slips -- so on, et cetera. It's not that these are necessarily bad things, but these are all things that are very, very easy for mafia to do. After saying he was going to do standard play, he hasn't made any compelling cases, just theorycrafted and said "great post" to other people's analysis. His latest post isn't analysis, but the people who could be persuaded to vote for. Mafia love bieng persuaded to vote for people; they don't have to make the case.
He casts suspicions without putting himself out there for it -- very carefully crafted non-suspicions that are still suspicions: + Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 03:53 Spaghetticus wrote: @OmniEulogy I get a scum read off you... but...
I am not going to pursue you if I can help it. Your process is so alien to me I can't really fathom your motives. I would like other people to apply scrutiny while I look elsewhere. I just can't see you as not scum, but this was true in XXXIII and you flipped town. Please people, before you attribute a scumbuddy relationship here... ... ... ... this is too high profile and obvious. My contribution will be substantial elsewhere, I genuinely feel my objectivity is compromised entirely when dealing with Omni. This is town motivated and too bold a risk for too little a reward to be a scum ploy. I have reasonable town motive, I don't want this post to haunt me.
On January 03 2013 23:01 Spaghetticus wrote: You have also been leaping on irrelevant details (from my perspective), inflating them beyond their importance. Soft claiming 'not scum' is far too crass a move for my style and you know it. I can see that you are doing everything you can to promote town activity, and I believe this is within what is reasonable to expect from you, so I won't call scum read on this.
I would like to point out however, that picking on small and probably* meaningless discrepancies is a great scum tactic for promoting confusion, and so would suggest you lay off the UberHolmsing
On January 05 2013 03:12 Spaghetticus wrote: That being said, I approve of your suspicion of Mocsta's final words before bed. I have scrutinised this action and it comes off as RL problems, but I could be biased. Is there any more that you wish to add to concerning Mocsta's scummy behaviour? It does remind me a lot of your scummy tunneling in XXXIII. Mocsta may seem untouchable now but anything you can force from him when he does make a slip such as now could be vital later on.
Note that anything someone ELSE could do to find Mocsta scummy would be great -- because Spag just might be biased.
On January 05 2013 03:12 Spaghetticus wrote: Just so you know, I have a note in my word pad about your efforts to preserve lurkers.
To Corazon -- again, no real analysis, just a cast suspicion. Maybe fairly innocent here, but what is the town motive for this post?
On January 05 2013 12:31 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta I actually did not promise to make a case against Omni, I distinctly stated that while I feel he is scummy, I do not want to be the one making the case, as I have massive bias. I have been directing attention to him as nobody seems to be picking up on his loose play. In the absence of a case, I will likely make one, but I am busy and have other people I would like to pursue. If Corazon feels up to the task, this would be optimal from my perspective.
Note that he explicitly asks Corazon to take up the case, a now-confirmed townie. If he can get Corazon to push the OE town flip and take the blame, two birds, right?
Especially upon being called out for the soft town claim on the QT thing, he was very defensive, which only seems odd in comparison to the lack of rigor in his analysis in the rest of the thread. What is consistent is his emotions, which is much easier for mafia to do than actual analysis: + Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 11:52 Spaghetticus wrote: In regard to your 'soft buddy claim' on me, this is shocking. I honestly feel helpless in regard to this.
I'm sorry to wash my hands of you in such a way
On January 03 2013 23:01 Spaghetticus wrote: You have also been leaping on irrelevant details (from my perspective), inflating them beyond their importance. Soft claiming 'not scum' is far too crass a move for my style and you know it. I can see that you are doing everything you can to promote town activity, and I believe this is within what is reasonable to expect from you, so I won't call scum read on this.
I would like to point out however, that picking on small and probably* meaningless discrepancies is a great scum tactic for promoting confusion, and so would suggest you lay off the UberHolmsing
His first defense to the soft town slip; very defensive, and tries to undermine the town's most contributing member in the process, and make it about his own reads instead of everyone else's reads on him. Note that between this and his comments on OE, he makes a big deal about his own non-reads -- the people he suspects but doesn't currently think are mafia.
On January 04 2013 00:45 Spaghetticus wrote: With respect, you are not listening.
I just don't like that tone -- I don't think it benefits town. Not a lot by itself.
On January 08 2013 00:35 Spaghetticus wrote: I've never use the phrase before. I was trying it out. Faaaark.
A better response would probably be "Just a slip of words." Really? NEVER used the phrase "closing out a game?"
On January 06 2013 09:28 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta Omni's post you quoted was ridiculous, and made me epic mad. The fact that you decided to support it makes me both confused and furious. ...WTF?
On January 07 2013 21:06 Spaghetticus wrote: Is this sarcasm? You are allowing the imagination to go almost anywhere with your provocative comments.
I know what an NK is, or do you think Omni's insight superior? Treating an NK as anything but what I called it
NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results
Would be absolutely fracking retarded. It does not take a scum to know that this is how an NK works, it doesn't even take a particularly well informed town.
How do YOU think we should think about NK's? Am I wrong? Do you think it beyond my intelligence to infer this much with both my penchant for theory crafting and the abundance of guides laying around? You don't even know whether I use coaches or not and you assume that I don't know what an NK is? This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive or been incongruous in your understanding of my thoughts.
This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
On January 07 2013 22:48 Spaghetticus wrote: F5ed to find yet another arrogant response. Wanna know why I think you are overconfident? BECAUSE ITS NOT A QUOTE FROM ME. LOOK AT THE FRICKING AUTHOR. You are playing fast and lose, and you're making some big mistakes. I know that if I talked to a coach, he'd tell me I need to play less conservative with my reads, but you are batshitcrazyliberal with yours and I think this sort of play will end with a loss for town.
All of the above just seem way too over the top to produce any kind of positive town discussion.
He has also consistently asked for information or operated mistakenly based on what he assumed was information in the OP, which again a townie might do if they're ignorant,, but he makes a big case out of not being ignorant. These strike me more as efforts to discuss fringe details that wouldn't be worth teh discussion if he actually wanted to know the answer and just read the OP: + Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 09:48 Spaghetticus wrote: Wait what? am I reading the OP correctly? is a tie a no-lynch? I swear I second checked it to make sure it was plurality?
On January 06 2013 09:04 Spaghetticus wrote: Shit I thought we had more time.
On January 05 2013 00:28 Spaghetticus wrote: Ew. I didn't realise how little time we had. I don't like Mocsta's absence, as it both deprives us of a valued player and
Really? They tell you every single mod post how close we are to the next deadline, and I think it was you who asked for everybody's time zones, and it was you who called for everyone's testimonies before the end of the night. How could you possibly miss that deadline?
On January 03 2013 13:25 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon or Zare Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now?
The first soft town claim. Still very suspect even though discussion about it has been dropped.
On January 04 2013 19:59 Spaghetticus wrote: Is the following question allowed?
Do not respond until I have an answer from mod.
Jampi. You claim to have talked to a coach that was not quick to respond. Tell me when you posted and when the response came.
For someone so concerned with all of this readily available information, he doesn't go to much effort to actually find out -- he just wants the credit of contribution without contributing.
He's also said a lot of things that simply aren't good logic. I can see this in a townie for sure, but here it just means that his only contributions are simply bad contributions. + Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote: Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX.
Wow, that carries a lot of assumptions that a genuine townie probably wouldn't want to make. If only it were that easy.
On January 06 2013 20:25 Spaghetticus wrote: I think everyone should make a reductive list of who they won't be pursuing day two. I won't be pursuing:-
I remember reading in some guide that reductive lists and town reads are counterproductive on Day 1 -- by far it's better to make proactive analysis cases, which Spag hasn't produced at all. All of his "reads" have been reactionary and off the hip. This is more of that assumption-led logic that he had above.
On January 05 2013 13:00 Spaghetticus wrote: The honeypot is a ploy where a town seduces a scum into revealing himself by making an obvious minor blunder. If someone tries to come in and inflate the minor mistake into a major one when this is outside your read on them, then you have likely found reason to suspect them. A mafia wants to put emphasis on irrelevant or clumsily executed arguments, rather than ones that actually contribute to catching them.
If this style sounds familiar, that is because I claimed this exact ploy earlier when explaining my 'slip'. My honeypot was more improvisation than anything, as I actually wanted to know about the mafia QT, but it was a honeypot none the less.
Why did no analysis come out of this honeypot, and he was extremely defensive for it at the time? Sounds like a band-aid for an earlier mistake while also spending tons of thread space on THEORY. On Day 2.
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote: @Mocsta. I change who I pressure a lot, I do not change my vote a lot. So far I have voted TeMiL, and switched to StriX in day one, and voted for TeMiL in day two, though this could change as well if he'd show up and defend himself.
Ummm, he switched OFF of TeMiL day 1, condemned Corazon for wanting to lynch TeMiL on day 2, and then talked about how it would be best for us to leave him be. Now Day 2 he wants to lynch TeMiL again. There is no rhyme or reason, but tons and tons of theory talk.
Here are all of Spag's soft town claims that, together, just seem too convenient:
On January 06 2013 09:17 Spaghetticus wrote: My will loses a lot of credibility due to me not posting it before the deadline. This is damn unfortunate.
No duh! If you were town you would make darn sure it was posted before the deadline. If you were mafia there's not as much pressure.
On January 03 2013 13:25 Spaghetticus wrote: @Corazon or Zare Do scum get access to their private thread immediately or do they have a period of non-communication. I have seen a scum chat before but this detail eludes me. Are scum able to communicate right now?
Covered earlier. If this detail eludes him, he would either read the OP -- and if he were really after the answer, he'd put the question in green for the mod (which he does later to a different soft-claim question, but not this one).
On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I have never been scum, and I’ve always assumed they had immediate and direct communication . In between this game, and last, however, I came across some information that implied that scum were alone to begin with, and got the QT come night.
He never answered my question as to what that info was, or where. He's explaiend multiple different reasons for his soft-claim at this point -- this weird honeypot idea which he didn't take advantage of at all if he used it, he was simply lazy in the moment, he came across a mysterious piece of info that led him to believe otherwise, and yet he still wasn't sure enough to know but not curious enough to find out but still curious enough to ask the thread but not curious enough to ask the mods directly.
On January 06 2013 09:11 Spaghetticus wrote: GG well played Corazon.
Thank Christ you managed to post a will on time, as I thought I still had 10-15 minutes, and Mocsta was a no show.
This is a little bit like praising the medic. Oh, phew! So glad you got that out!
On January 04 2013 19:59 Spaghetticus wrote: Is the following question allowed?
Do not respond until I have an answer from mod.
Jampi. You claim to have talked to a coach that was not quick to respond. Tell me when you posted and when the response came.
Implicit here is the idea that he also has communicated with a townie coach, and can verify whether or not Jampi had access to one or not or is lying. Also here is him conveniently not reading the OP (whereas elsewhere he is incredibly defensive about the idea that he wouldn't read the OP or Mafia guides) so he can take credit for a move forward in analysis that doesn't actually exist, or is even legal. A for effort and all that.
On January 07 2013 21:06 Spaghetticus wrote: Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
Of course he'll die, because he's contributed so much and is a townie and the mafia would love to take him out! what luck that he survived! /s[/spoiler]
The final piece here is an analysis of his voting: + Show Spoiler +
He made such a big deal about LAL all day, but flung his vote to StriX when Mocstra and myself suddenly went for OE, essentially assuring that StriX would be lynched when it was possible that there'd be a bandwagon lynch of OE.
Day 2, who is he talking about again? TeMiL. It seems to me that the only person he wants to talk about is the person who's contributed the least, but the person he actually votes for will be done without clear, building analysis.
Now I discounted Spag because I thought he responded well to that first slip, but now that I look back on it, I was mostly impressed by his rigorous defense (read: length of defense) and his general thread presence. But after looking at his actual thread presence, I'm convinced that it is not helping town at all, and persuaded that all of the factors that I've outlined above lead to a clear read of Spag as mafia.
I will be busy for most of the rest of the day but will try to check in on this thread as much as possible, but from here on out I am pushing Spag hard.
I share the same sentiments... if you read my Night1 last will...http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=28#552) most of my requests were for people to follow up on Spaghetticus.
I thank you for doing this; it covers a lot of the points I had in my head.
HOWEVER,
It is critical town bands together their vote. With a majority of 4 votes, jampidampi will be guaranteed lynch. We need you to join our vote.
(Aside) If JK is around, they can block Spag; and game is over. (Or in the words of ?scum? Closed out)
I'll start off with his very first post and my thoughts behind it + Show Spoiler +
jampidampi Finland. January 03 2013 22:46. Posts 42 PM Profile Report Quote # filter + Show Spoiler +
I don't think we can call anyone a lurker yet. It has been only 12 hours since the game started, and no analysis/cases have been posted. Once we get a case rolling, be it a scum or town read, we can get discussion and opinions. The only action so far is Mocstas vote for cDgcorazon based on metaread from the one game he played earlier. I'm reading through Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII to get an idea the meta of others. Expect some analysis in while.
As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
StriX is certainly a person worth questioning. Using your own newbines as an argument is usually associated with being scum, not to mention he hasn't posted much. He has no contributions to speak of. So StriX: - Who are analysing/suspecting? - Do you have any prior mafia experience outside TL?
@All Keep the spam like weather updates out of this thread. It only helps the mafia.
He has certaintly stayed true to his posting policy, the problem being that almost nothing he has posted has had any strong content or have much of a meaning. He soft claims newbie in his first post saying "this is my first time playing forum mafia..." and then in his next post hits StriX with suspicion for doing the exact same thing. This early in the game I would also mention that creating a friendly town atmosphere with a few mindless comments about the weather is only threatening to scum. They don't want a love-fest among the townies and at best the weather comment was neutral and wasn't going anywhere. It seems odd to be so opposed to it so early in the game.
On January 04 2013 08:38 OmniEulogy wrote: After reading the following something feels off, it might be a language barrier thing but + Show Spoiler +
From jampidampi: Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Something in that bolded area seems off to me. @Jampi could you clarify when you say everybody should check the QT link they get in their PM?
The OP provided the role PMs for each role. In the scum role PMs there is a direct link to the scum QT. Anyone rational would at least check out the link and post there once to get commucating between his scumpartner going. After all, mafias greatests strength is their information and the possibility of communication.
(1) I would like if you could answer the new questions I addressed to you: @Jampidampi You said you prefer a postcount to post quality ratio skewed in favour of post quality.
Why does your post regarding these three people aid towns scumhunt? What makes this a "quality" post?
The only other person you have identified in your contributions is StriX; the questions are vague at best however.
If StriX remains your primary target, I would like to see you direct more questions his way to develop your profile on him.
If StriX has fallen down the pecking order, I would like to know what has changed your mind.
(2) What is your take on the Sylencia/zarepath exchange of words (and vote(s))?
It was a post of me sharing my weak town reads. I asked the coaches if I should share weak reads, but since they were slow to answear and I was impatient, I went ahead and posted it (they said I shouldn't share weak town reads). It may help others when considering who to scumhunt. I do agree that the post lacks some quality.
I will write my suspicions of/questions to StriX in a separate post to make it more clear.
Zarepath may just have a little bit of tunnel vision. It's good that he's bringing those points up, but I'm statisfied with the answears Sylencia gave.
I have bolded what I would like to be read but feel free to go over all of it in case I've misinterpreted it. After he says he released a bunch of weak town reads and that he was told he shouldn't do that he posts this + Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2013 17:19 jampidampi wrote: After examing StriX filter, he feels scummy. + Show Spoiler +
In his first post he is only agreeing with others and repeating what others already said about the summary plan.
Second post is just policy talk without actually bringing anthing new to the table.
(1) You mention keeping it simple, Lynch the liars + lurkers. Please expand on this. Would you chose liars/lurkers over top scum read?
(2) Noone is asking you to support the summary idea; thus, how do you propose to support town play?
(3) Your post contribution currently is on par with TeMiL and zarepath. If we are you Lynch all lurkers, which of (TeMiL, zarepath, StriX) shall town vote to lynch? Please lead the scum hunt with your chosen candidate.
1. Doesn't seem logical to do that so no. As you can deal with a lying or lurking town with less punishment than .5?-1 death/night.
A bare minimun response to the question.
2. No ideas yet honestly - still getting the hang of who is who.
Seems like coming up with a excuse not to contribute.
3. Zarepath at the moment - mainly due to his policy on no lynch. Town environment can be improved and giving a lynch which could potentially be a free scum kill away seems too steep a price to pay.
Accusing someone based on a nolynch policy is an easy thing to do.
Next three posts are him answearing my questions about the game he played earlier. After that he takes back his suspicions of zarepath stating that
(1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
(2) You said zarepath is your lead suspect. With the information zarepath has presented since Session 2. What are your revised thoughts? If still a target, I suggest you demonstrate your conviction with a vote; otherwise, begin to identify alternative candidates.
1. I'm starting to yes.
Again, bare minimum response.
2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
Targetting the easiest player to target: a lyrker with no contrinutions.
After that he claims to have contributed with an argument that he later took back.
Then he posts his reads/views on everyone without actually giving any reasonings.
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
I guess we have different definitions of top scum reads as I really don't feel supporting no lynch is one. Perhaps in a high level (it'd probably be a meta play there actually) game but not in newbie mafia.
Defends letting go of zarepaths pressure with a different playstyle.
I guess it's easier to spot things when people point them out to you. Honestly forgot you're the one who gave me the names and neglected to check out the others in more detail. Will now be aware of the leading nature of your questions towards myself.
Acknowledges that so far all his actions have been because Mocsta requested him to act.
In his last post he defends his vote on TeMiL with some previous game he played.
Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy. ##Vote StriX
His case on StriX. Which I believe he admits to being weak later. "My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now."
He then has his brief dispute with Cora, I tried to think of this from both perspectives and from a scum point of view I believe Cora who has been making great observations all game, and is giving a potential scum player a very hard time while making logical arguments and defending other townies from cases using the same deduction would seem extremely dangerous. I know people have complained that this is me reading too far into things but it is still a factor and should be taken into consideration. the obs QT in NMM XXXIII briefly mentioned my NK when I was pressuring Cora and made a case on FC in the process even though Mocsta was clearly the strongest town. From the scum QT's I've read they always look closest at townies who are the biggest threat and the closest to exposing them for the NK N1.
@Spaghetticus You seems to have acted in a way that would allow to you to jump on any bandwagon on a lurker without atracting too much atention. I will go through your filter later today, but so far you seems very suspicious. And this
On January 05 2013 10:50 Spaghetticus wrote: I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves.
seems scummy. Not giving information away is suspicious. Could you straight up tell me why you voted on StriX?
On January 05 2013 09:35 Mocsta wrote: when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
You seem very sure that StriX would flip town. Would you mind giving your reasonings to this? Did you have a townread on him and what in his play made him look like town to you?
On January 05 2013 04:39 zarepath wrote: I am working on a long post of my own.
Yet we never saw that. Care to explain?
which was prompted by Mocsta I believe. This entire post has essentially no meaning. It's one large summary and the questions at the end are mediocre at best and easy to come up with. There is no new information in the entire post. This is when I began to seriously look at Jampi as possible scum. He has still up to this point failed to contribute largely to any scum hunt, and the case he admits was weak was made on a confirmed town at this point. If he knew StriX was town it would explain why he didn't push more for his lynch but instead sat back and did not contribute and let us lynch him, as I've said previously. He even tries to say after StriX lynch that I look the most suspicious for making my case on him and pushing for his lynch when he voted for the same target first.
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
This blew my mind. He has done nothing up to this point. Has said I was suspicious, and AGAIN tries to force Mocsta of all people to continue to make cases on me. Did he even read Mocsta's case on me? (Mocsta's case was made before this) It's almost like he doesn't have an opinion on it, or he doesn't care. He said he like to share his opinions on people. Holy shit here's a prime opportunity to say anything he wants about me and he tries to push it onto Mocsta? Scum behavior. Massive scum read on him from this post. This has made him my #1 scum read at this point.
Then we get into the JK/RB debate and the only thing he is really talking about is which set-up we might have. He never goes into detail and only corrects Syl on which roles are in which scenario. He continues to push Mocsta for his opinion on me and whether or not he thinks I am still scum. At this point I'd really hope Jampi would have his own opinion on me. FFS I even told him I would welcome any questions he had on me but he says nothing. He then tries to accuse Mocsta as being scum, I'm not against somebody trying to do this, I think Mocsta could pull it off and we'd be screwed in a newbie game but the way he does it...
"I urge everyone to go through Mocstas filter and re-evaluate, if his truly is town. His only big contributions are the cases on Omni and TeMiL, which reek of utter bullshit. Other than that he has just been leading the town to the direction he wants with his questions." - Jampi
Why is his case on me Bullshit? I didn't agree with a lot of it and I think most of it was personal opinion with very little facts but I have the advantage of knowing I'm town. YOU(jampi) Do not. YOU(jampi) Have claimed I was suspicious and should be looked at thoroughly and have said absolutely nothing to take that opinion back.
He then promises a larger case on Mocsta and here we are. He hasn't posted a single thing after that. He has no motivation to help town and quite honestly hasn't tried to help town at all this game. He has not followed up on what he claimed he was good at in his first post. Some of these arguments are weak and some are my personal view on things but there are many facts in how he has played that make him seem like mafia. This is why I said he is easily my choice for lynch tonight. Sorry Syl I didn't explain myself out thoroughly and that is my fault. I hope this helps you see how I have come to this conclusion.
I can definitely appreciate the time it goes into making these cases.
A few connections are biasd, but overall; its about the flow, and you definitely described in detail the flow of jampi (or should we say.. the lack of anything meaningful)
Sylencia.. I need to play devils advocate here and run a few scenarios, to see if we have missed anything.
I am sorry but this is mainly association cases.,
For me Spag is guaranteed scum; zarepath has done a better job than i would have done and highlighting the slips etc.
If Spag is scum.. i just cant see Omni being scum.
because.. its pointless having 2 active mafia..so for the active role, it was between spag/omni. For Day1 lynch I chose omni.. but now I am firm on Spag. You unvoted Omni, so i suppose you can agree with this logic. If we consider mafia #2.. makes sense to be a lurker. prime candidates are zarepath, jampidampi, TeMiL
spag has constantly pushed to protect jampi, and vote TeMiL (day2).. Considering Spag voted TeMiL day 1.. i cant see TeMiL being mafia.. a day1 bus is just too early.
So TeMiL is cleared as innocent due to association with Spag. as for zarepath.. it could be a good play to bus spag.. he knows i have been onto him, i have telegraphed my read on Spag for a while in the thread now.
zarepath has been absent enough to fly under teh radar, and has white knighted me as well (the whole imitate my vote thing). So I can see zarepath being a very intelligent end game scum gambit. The problem is jampi.. why would spag keep trying to protect jampi.. thus, we get to WIFOM. maybe spag protected him, SO WE WOULD VOTE JAMPI by association... or maybe spag protected jampi to keep the team alive..
What Omni has poitned out with jampi is spot on... the question is.. is the likelihood of zarepath being scum high enough; to vote Spag.. and just deal with jampi/zarepath in Day 3?
sounds good. I'm going to go out for lunch and catch up afterwards. Based on Zare's case though it seems more concrete than jampi tbh. Most of what I've pointed out on Jampi is just his lack of everything and what he has done seems to be hurtful.. but Zare makes some excellent points on what has been said/done on a regular basis. It's a tough decision, switching to Spag would be a lot of WIFOM where Jampi I feel is a safer choice to look for a lynch. I don't know... I need to look through everything again after lunch.
If I read you right, Mocsta, you are 100% sure that Spag's mafia, but still want to take out jampi instead because he might be the other scum and that would make it easier to sort out the last scum lynch?
I think you are looking too closely for associations before we have the lynch. I am much more certain about Spag than I am about jampi, probably because I just spent three hours in his filter. I've read Syl's and OE's cases on jampi, read his filter, and am going to go look for your case on him, Mocsta, but I still don't feel as confident. If we're wrong about Spag we need to know now (although I don't think we're wrong), or else all of town's assumptions for the rest of the game could be disastrous.
If that means Spag today and then a jampi/zare showdown tomorrow, that's fine, but I think you're excluding too many possibilities. I am going with my number one read, and I think you should as well.
What do you mean about how switching to Spag would be a lot of WIFOM? Do you mean that my case had Wine In Front of Me logic, or that switching would involve it, or that Spag's behavior has had it?
Making this took way longer than I expected, but here it is: My case on Mocsta
I think Mocsta is an active scum rather than a passive one. And what I mean by that is that instead of trying to stay in the shadows, he is come aggressively forth, being confident not to slip. His main motive isn't to stay hidden, it is to cause caos while appearing as the most contributing person. He does a very good job of missleading town. I will now explain how his posts are crafted to help his agenda.
His posts can basicly be split into five categories:
Mocsta starts the game with policytalk. Some more policy talk. Later, he comments on the power of a vote. That's it for posts solely on policy talk. Mocsta has some other posts were he touches on lynching policy, but overall he seems to avoid the subject. Talking about policy is something easy for mafia to do, so by avoiding it his "contributions" seem more of a town nature. More so than that, it gives him the opportunity to attack others because they are talking about policy.
I know its a long read, but, if I could have only one contribution to town for this game.. I would be satisfied by having posted this.
He mentions in the orginal post that he would like if it had no impact on our reads, and then goes and claims that this is his best contribution. Why would he claim something as his best contribution if he did not intend do give it as an contribution? Because he is scum trying to appear as town.
All of these are easy accusations to do. There is no deeper thought behind most of these. They help Mocsta establish a protown image while making others appear as more suspicious. + Show Spoiler [Cases] +
Mocstas case on TeMiL At the start, it seems as though Mocsta tries to make it acceptable that he doesn't post any analysis at all. Later on he even said that he had a slight scumread on Omni even before making this post. Even in his opening post he quotes cakepie to say that policy lynching is not an substitute for active scumhunting. Yet he still wants to kill TeMiL because he is not contributing, even thought Mocsta later say that he is 100% town. This is certainly suspicious. Going after the easy target, he would not have to fabricate lies to make his case good.
On January 03 2013 10:37 OmniEulogy wrote: Whoa didn't expect it to start tonight. I'm extremely tired guys and I was about to go to sleep till I saw the PM. I'll catch up tomorrow when I wake up x.x
Quickly though - for those of you who played with me last game my views stay the same for Policy lynches. We shouldn't lynch the lurkers D1 just because they aren't active, we need to actively scum hunt and push our top scum reads. I WILL lynch liars though. Townies don't need to lie in this game.
That's all I've got to say about that I'm looking forward to this getting going!
(1) Policy talk from all is typically meaningless fluff at the start. You say you will actively scum hunt.. but what have you contributed actively? A vote on zarepath.. because he votes no-lynch early game. that is not active scum hunting. That is prejudice. I can vote 100 people between now and deadline. its the vote at deadline that matters. First sign you need to step up your game.. the question is whether town or scum motivation.
Why doesn't Mocsta consider Omnis case on StriX as scumhunting? Omni gives out valid points against StriX, but he ignore this as a contributing early and later attacks Omni based on the case even though he himself said it was one of Omnis key posts. Contradicting yourself in the same post. Feels scummy.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Unvote: Zarepath given the three/four pages I need to catch up in and what I have read so far I don't believe my vote should still rest on Zare for this lynch. I think he has now contributed more than several others and it would be worse for town to lose him at this moment. I think TeMiL is just really bad town so I wont be voting for him either. I'll have a longer post written up shortly.
(7) Interesting. The justification is quite weak to remove the vote.. He has contributed? big whoop, this is a piss poor attempt to move onto another target. You are admitting here your actual vote justification was weak, or even just sheeping. Again, how does that help town win?
It is interesting how Mocsta sees Omni retracting his vote as scum, when he himself retracts hisstance on Omniwith even worse reasoning. His opinion on Omni changes even before he has taken his time to read the thread properly? If he didn't read the thread just what on earth made Mocsta change his opinion? Knowing Omni is town would be one and only mafia 100% that someone is town.
Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking..
Omni just quoted Mocsta a bit, and he ha sn't even said that he waited a big post from StriX. And there is no policy talk, Omni just says that StriX mentioning zarepaths no-lynch policy is not a big contribution. Omni is not doing the policy talking, he is attacking StriX for talking policy. It seems as though Mocsta didn't even read Omnis post properly, or that he is trying to come up with arguments for his case, even when none exist. How is this town minded at all? It isn't, it is telltale scum behavior.
Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification.
Omni is not using policy lynching as an argument anywhere in his case. What Omni actually states is that StriX being suspicious of zarepath because of the no-lynch and then backtracking on it, saying that he (StriX) doesn't consider the no-lynch so scummy anymore, is, in fact, scummy behavior. Intentianally missunderstanding someone is scummy
All in all, your case is weak. You twist Omnis words to fit your reasonig, and post the case late causing confusion, even though you had your suspicions for a while. This is really scummy.
These cases of yours reek of scum mentality. First going after the easy target with TeMiL and then going after Omni hoping for a last minute confusion bandwagon.
Mocsta creates discussions, making him seem more of an townie, but in reality he is leading everyones thoughts. He is making everyone think for him while his actual contributions remains at a minimum.
These will be split into to categories: posts where Mocsta defends himself and posts where he reasons without someone asking for it. + Show Spoiler [Defenses] +
Mocsta makes his stance on Corazon clear. His is placing his vote on Cora to fabricate giving pressure. It is easy for him to back of stating that he should not pay attention to previous games, but this one. He defends his ask questions but do not answear them-policy. A beatiful way to avoid Syls question while making it seem that just asking questions is giving his thoughs on everything. And says he is not going to comment on the zare/Syl conversation. How is this town oriented? Mocsta defends his vote on TeMiL. He defends his coming voteswitch. He defends presenting his case late. Mocsta defends hisreadonOmni. Then he defends his townread on StriX. Mocsta townread is based on giving dispensation to StriX, not on his actions. What? Mocsta can't give us a single action of StriXs with town motives and still considers him town? This is just an excuse for what he said earlier. And he defends his lack of analysis. Another post defending the Omni case. And yet another post defending the Omni case. Mocstas hint to changing his opinion on Omni just seems as a hindsight way of avoiding responsibility. And nowhere do I state that I am any good at analysing. It seems he is missinterpretetting this post in which I state that random accusations will lead us next to nowhere. Mocsta defending his vote on me while reasoning not to lynch TeMiL. Notice how he is still not giving his reasonings but letting others figure them out? This is not town play. And he does not address the case of a misslynch, which was the orginal point of Syl: not bringing us to a point were TeMiLs vote decides the game. He finally addresses Sylencias point of TeMiL being maybe scum while defending not lynching TeMiL. Still doesn't address if he is in the event of a misslynch okay with TeMiLs vote deciding the game. Because he is scum and this would actually benefit him. Mocsta defends himself against me pointing out his bad logic on his Omni case. Why the heck doesn't he bother to write down what is wrong with my reasoning? If there actually was something wrong with it, why not point it out? It is because he is trying to undermine my credibility in fear of the actual case. He defends not lynching TeMiL. He just theorises about random lynching while providing nothing new. Another post defending not lynching TeMiL. Again not giving his thoughs on whether he thinks it is okay to have TeMiLs vote decide the game. Mocsta defending not lynching TeMiL and his vote on me. In what basicly is a summary post. Mocsta defending his statement that town is winning. How can anyone think that town is winning? If we don't lynch scum now, it's LYLO the next day. Mocsta defending his various arguments. Then he defends Omni, without actually telling us why he considers him town. Notica also how he treats his case on Omni as two players misscommuncating. Even though most of Mocstas points do not stem from a dialog.
After D1 until my vote on him, Mocsta is very defensive, not contributing much of anything else than his defenses. + Show Spoiler [Orginal reasonings] +
Mocsta reason in advance his voteswitch. Mocsta giving his general musings. Basicly a summary post, where he states that Spag is his top read. If Spag is his top read why not vote for him? Or atleast provide a case? This is classic scummy behavior. Mocsta theorising associations. He has stated many times before that he doesn't want to make association cases. Yet what does he do now?
As we can see he doesn't reason much if something isn't asked from him. Not giving information is scummy.
Mocsta advocating that we have a good chance tolynchscum, but is not scumhunting himself. Thesepost seems just a way to pressure others to jump on the bandwagon Mocsta has been building on me. Very scummy.
TL;DR: He is leading others while his contributions remain subpar. Not giving information is a huge scumtell and not voting for your top scum read while constantly changing it without reasonings is really scummy. If Mocsta doesn't flip scum, I'm utterly confused.
On January 07 2013 14:31 jampidampi wrote: ##Vote: Mocsta
I leave you with StriXs final post before his lynching:
On January 05 2013 09:38 StriX wrote: Seems the fire is burning full flame. You're very good at baiting me into responding. I now believe the mafia pair to be Omni + Mocsta. Mocsta until this point has been baiting jampidampi into me and is using this vote to clear himself. Mocsta also very cleverly uses this out of character last minute post case on OmniEulogy to clear himself after my flip. It becomes even more suspicious when I mention IF mocsta doesn't die as if I am the one who chooses (mia cupla).
Be very careful of the leading nature of Mocsta's Question time. OmniEulogy is very good at rehashing made points.
Too tired to defend myself against Omnis case, but if look through it carefully, you will see that some of the points he made are fabricated and overemphasizes some others. For instance I never claimed to good at anything nor have I ever stated to suspect him.
As I will not be here during the deadline this may very well be my last post.
If that is the case, I hope you have good time with the rest of the game and really hope you lynch scum on D3.
I must admit I've played with the idea of Mocsta being scum all game long. When he started making those posts on how to scum hunt ect. I was extremely uncomfortable but I had the same feeling from him in XXXIII it was just this time with no Aqua to push for the lynch Mocsta made the case himself so the feeling I had was a bit worse. I've constantly wondered if I were being manipulated by Mocsta and if everybody was being fooled by his treatment to us. He is playing the type of scum game I would attempt. At the same time he is playing the town game I would have liked to if I wasn't so passive-aggressive.
I do have a few problems with your case
"Mocsta is trying to make others think for him. Asking others to do something for you is scummy."
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
On January 04 2013 22:26 jampidampi wrote: @StriX I have yet to see an action of yours that doesn't fall into the category of arguably scum or town. That is to say every action of yours could have scum or town motives behind them. In my mind you are the scummiest player so the vote stays.
but in his case you say "Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy."
Overall I think I would find your case more compelling if it weren't riddled with lies or hypocrisy. If what you say, and what I fear is true, and Mocsta is scum, this case has not convinced me. The only thing that might save you today from my vote is if Mocsta believes his read on Spag is strong enough to justify changing the vote. Otherwise my vote will be staying on you.
One other thing that might save you is if you can claim JK and prove that you were the one who RB'd me. (I assume it was town as mafia RB just does NOT make sense on me.)
I think we should stay on Jampi. when everybody else comes back I'm expecting we'll most likely be discussing who we'll be voting for all the way up to the end though.
I'll start writing them now, and post them if I take lead position. My mistakes seem unsalvageable. I was deliberately excluding Zare, not Jamp. I would happily vote for Jamp but not Zare. My vote will remain on TeMiL for survival reasons.
On January 08 2013 06:20 Spaghetticus wrote: I was deliberately excluding Zare, not Jamp. I would happily vote for Jamp but not Zare.
With his final words; Spag leaves us with WIFOM.
Now he says he was deliberately excluding zarepath; yet
when he left prior.. he writes this..
On January 08 2013 01:59 Spaghetticus wrote: I am going to bed. My preferred candidates are Omni, Zare, and TeMiL, and I will settle for any of them. I'll try and get up in three hours so I can influence the lynch if it is not going the way I intend. I have certain changes to my plan if particular events happen.
There is no way a townie would act this way when under the gun; (i.e. confuse/complicate matters further)
Therefore Spag is now/was a firmer mafia than the remaining null players.
I suggest to use zarepath vote and bandwagon Spag.
On January 08 2013 06:04 OmniEulogy wrote: He is playing the type of scum game I would attempt. At the same time he is playing the town game I would have liked to if I wasn't so passive-aggressive.
I wouldn't try to copy my playstyle.
The feedback Im getting in PMs is constantly slamming me.. (This game and last.)
Perhaps its a style that only works in smaller environments.
Okay bandwagon has started, and I'm dead certain this will be a killing blow. Though if you could be convinced by this post to not lynch me, that would put town in much better stead, I understand it comes from the lips of a strong suspect and it will only look like WIFOM until after my death.
Town still has a chance with my death, but you are going to have to have to heed my words, and take the risks, as now town is truly behind.
I am cop. I checked Zarepath, and he was clean. My posturing around his lynch was just that. I did not want to have to explain why I was not voting for this incredibly scummy town.
Mocsta and Sylencia \were/ clean. That Mocsta tried to switch wagon on to me as soon as someone else decided it was a good idea makes me wonder. Really at this point I think the best play is to admit that if he’s scum, he’s simply a better player and let him win. If he is not scum then all the suspicion is damaging town, and we sort of need to stick to our scummier players. You will not catch Mocsta if he is scum, take the risk and assume he’s town, YOU NEED TO TAKE RISKS.
Edit before post: the fact that Mocsta has not realised that taking votes off of Jampi and putting them on me means he’s not trying too hard to change the vote from Jamp. Either he’s incredibly confident he can finish me tomorrow, he wants me around to soak up an NK so his continued existence is not so conspicuous, or he is town with a fairly even read between me and Jamp. I want to believe the third option for the reasons above (any attempt to land a Mocstawhale will be unsuccesful, and letting the better man win if he’s scum).
That leaves four out of seven players confirmed town (including myself). After this lynch, so long as I don’t die and I can convince you, at worst it will be four confirmed town vs two scum, which is an easy win.
On top of this, Omni waiting for backup before continuing further gives a town read. If he were scum he’d know he could lead the charge on me without repercussion, and probably seal my fate. This means Jamp and TiMeL as scum team, which actually makes a lot of sense considering how much of our hunting has stuck. The two lurkiest players are scum letting us mob ourselves to death. This still puts Omni in third most scummy position, but killing the other two before him is important. I'll add that because I am cop, this narrows down the possible starting scenarios to either:-
one goon + one roleblocker vs Jailkeeper and five VT
or
two goons vs one cop and six VT
In the latter scenario Omni is lying, so if a JK claims we can rule out the possibility of him lying and jail the remaining person, having ruled out the biggest negative read on Omni. You need to do serious endgame turn math before playing this hand though, as you don't want to die before setting the gambit in motion. This game is close, so your actions will be vital. Hope that Syl and Mocsta are town and stop playing around the possibility of them being scum, otherwise town stand zero chance.
can anybody counter claim Spag's cop claim? its important. I'm not moving my vote if nobody can. It also means we have a JK and scum has a RB. If nobody cop claims to counter Spag it means both RB and JK blocked me N1
EBWOP: On top of this, the fact Omni was the only one that was roleblocked means we can infer that if there is a JK, there was an RB that nobody claimed, which means it was probably on TeMiL, which would weaken the scum read on TeMiL as a scum would not be RBed. This makes me say that Jamp is top scum, then TeMiL, and then Omni. If the scum do not all reside within these three individuals, any chance of a town win is an extreme long shot. Hit Jamp day two , and then proceed with probably TeMiL while JKing Omni, then hit Omni if the game is not already won.
Nobody can counter claim cop without actually being scum. If anyone does, lynch me and then them. This over-rides any other read I've made, as I'm confident it won't come to fruition. That would be some bold scum that.
We need a cop claim pronto or else we need to switch onto jampi last minute. On a tablet out and about, but will monkitor thread. Also, can't mafia counter claim now to ensure a detective lynch on spag?
if its Jampi and TeMiL I wouldn't be surprised. Jampi wont be getting much help in that scenario. TeMiL saw that Jampi would not be lynched no matter what D1, voted him to try and separate the two of them from suspicion? It's a possibility.
On January 08 2013 07:14 Spaghetticus wrote: I am cop. I checked Zarepath, and he was clean. My posturing around his lynch was just that. I did not want to have to explain why I was not voting for this incredibly scummy town.
##UNVOTE
Thought about it...
Re-Read and noticed this.
"I am cop. i checked zarepath"
Well. Spag.. you have doubted my intentions *ALL* game; you have attempted to associate my name and scum together all game, the same as you have done with OmniEulogy.
You can check zarepath case against you, for evidence.
So.. on the first night, if I was such a scare to you.. why would you check zarepath out of all people.. God cop play would have been to check me, if you thought I was leading the discussions. and from your post history, it suggests you did think i was leading the discussoin.
Guys, we gotta do what the coaches keep telling me.
stopping using weak heuristics.
i.e.. I assumed 2 mafia wouldnt be actvie.
we have no evidence that states they woud or wouldnt.. so we cant use that as a method of deduction.
All the TeMiL jampi relationships are hypothetical.. if ew work with what we have... which is Spgahetticus filter.
its plagued all over.
lastly, his cop claim as i mentioned in the above post.. doesnt make sense.. why wouldnt he check me... we have been having digs at each other all game.... i would be instant choice...
ah um if it is Jampi and TeMiL and we lynch spag and he's telling the truth we'll be missing a cop and they'll have a RB. We'll still have JK but if TeMiL isn't scum it might be syl. I have a town read on him but he might just be playing a good game. TeMiL throws a wrench in it for us no matter what.
This is my assumption. We in selection ?3. 1 jk only. This is only a guess but i think it might be temil. He was the one who quoted growing in his role
mind u. That could mean anything
short story is i think spag claim is fake. I took a step back read it openly. Even unvoted so i wasnt biased in my head... The check on zarepath kust doesnt make sense it should have been me.
Why release this now as well. Look what it has rwsulted in. We not firm on the vote
this is a clear attempt to derail votes. If u put urself in cop shoes. His logic and play in general dowsnt add up. I have enoughbrespwct for spag and hia game to know he wouldnt make these decisions as town
I'm really uncomfortable voting for a blue role who hasn't been proven wrong. I'll change my vote when we get closer to the lynch time if I have to but if nobody claims against him it will be against my better judgement.
well, ... shit... ... I DONT KNOW HOW TO PHRASE THIS QUESTION. lol... uh How much can we talk about advice we got from our coaches? Can we rephrase what they said and present it as they told it to us?
Better to be wrong about spag than jampi. If were wrong about spag we have confirmed town, if wrong about jampi we still don't know what to do about cop claim. I say if jampi flips town, jk should not block spag to see if scum go after him. Also how is he sure that he is to be mnemosyne with a roleblocker in the game. Lynch spag for answers to this crazy game
Omni. Ur point is valid. Im nit going to argue your opinion.
I ask of u 1 question. If a case was made for me and i was seroously conaidered. Just because i say im cop. U will unvote? Where in his filter doea he act like a cop. He doesnt ecen offer a brwadcrumb for us do i need to remind u chromatifally had breadcrimba for his rb role... This all smells phony to me. What is your opinion with this context?
I agree completely with you, and a TON of what I'm basing this on is that we have no counter-claim to his cop claim. That is the ONLY thing bothering me. I am willing to admit Syl or TeMiL could be cop but neither of them are coming forward. If you myself or Zare were cop I wouldn't be having this difficulty cause he would be proven a liar immediately. His cop claim MUST have been either true, or a massive chance that its TeMiL.
Holy crap what is going on I don't have internet so I'm using my mobile net to look at this, why is there as cop claim and why are there votes going to spag after his claim
[green]I'm just going to PM you what I'm going to say because it might be a iffy statement. If its wrong I won't get in trouble for just PMing you right?[/bold]
On January 08 2013 08:04 zarepath wrote: Better to be wrong about spag than jampi. If were wrong about spag we have confirmed town, if wrong about jampi we still don't know what to do about cop claim. I say if jampi flips town, jk should not block spag to see if scum go after him. Also how is he sure that he is to be mnemosyne with a roleblocker in the game. Lynch spag for answers to this crazy game
Regardlessbof outcome day2. U are now on warch for day3.
Town would say what u just said. Lynching confirmed town is Not information that helps. This combined with u not answering my questions from 4hrs ago is hifhly suspicious.
Nexr ur going to say your case on spag was a big misunderstanding?
Actually I can see where the vote is coming from. If Spag is cop then that means either omni got role blocked and also jailkeepered, or temil got role blocked or jailkept .
Second scenario seems super unlikely as there is no reason anyone would waste their role on him, and the first one also seems unlikely unless jk followed spags advice and the roleblocker thought omni was blue.
I don't know what to do though, if we are wrong we could be killing any hope we have to win this game...
But chance jk and rb both hit ombi has to be remote.
Jk shoudlnt hit omni. Target was too high profile. When i was jk i tried to block kill and chose my least profile target. Thus hgigher xhance its just scm rb and target omni as a setup or a gambit like this
@Mocsta I mean if we lynch spag and he's town we know Zare is town... but... if Zare is town shouldn't he trust Spag? Zare was one of the three we were suspecting... this is getting really confusing.. mission accomplished scum =/
OK with Syl being here I'm willing to just go with the statistics. The chance TeMiL rolled Cop is small. Do we risk lynching our cop over a 7~% chance that he's lying?
EBWOP: I should say I come up with 7% (its really more like 11% IDK why I thought we started with 13 people) but we KNOW its none of us, TeMiL is the only person who could be cop left... meaning its 50-50 between the two of them. I got RB so as long as they aren't lying... Spag took a risk based on a 11% chance that none of us were the cop... that's risky as hell.
Here is the post. If he knows Zare is town its odd that he puts him on the list.
On January 08 2013 01:59 Spaghetticus wrote: I am going to bed. My preferred candidates are Omni, Zare, and TeMiL, and I will settle for any of them. I'll try and get up in three hours so I can influence the lynch if it is not going the way I intend. I have certain changes to my plan if particular events happen.
I dunno, there are so many signs that show he was willing to vote zare If he was cop, he did not give us any hints in regards to a zare check.
On January 08 2013 00:22 Spaghetticus wrote: I would prefer any of the other three (including Jamp), but would not be entirely opposed to lynching Zare. I think there are better targets.
@Zare Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game.
On January 08 2013 01:59 Spaghetticus wrote: I am going to bed. My preferred candidates are Omni, Zare, and TeMiL, and I will settle for any of them. I'll try and get up in three hours so I can influence the lynch if it is not going the way I intend. I have certain changes to my plan if particular events happen.
the post I quoted was literally 2 posts before his case where he claims he knew Zare was town... Good catch Mocsta. literally 6 hours later he's completely changed what he was saying. If he's scum he knows Zare is town even without checking him. Now the only question is if he's bussing Jampi.
On January 08 2013 08:40 Mocsta wrote: DONT ASSUME ZARE IS TOWN
Hiw behaviour has been odd. I called him out he has ignored.
Rhis could be a gambit to make zarepare look good
yeah I'm taking that into consideration as well. Although this still doesn't make Jampi look any better and if Spag does flip town then it'll clear Zare. I guess we'll deal with that when it happens.
Day one my options were either Zarepath or Omni. Checking Mocsta would be a bad play because I both expected him to die, and because he was expected to run himself into the ground if he was scum. I had a positive town read on Corazon and Syl, though not as strong as everyone else's.
I went LAL because I did not want to have to waste reads on lurkers. The middle ground is the sweet-spot where I could move to shut down anything a red-flip would do, but also control town if they were looking at mislynching them. Out of Omni and Zare, I chose Zare because I did not think I could save Omni if he flipped green. I'd already made efforts to communicate that my reads on him would be close to null, as he always looks scummy to me even if he is town. This left the incredibly scummy Zare, who I inspected. If you read his filter, there is no way I could excuse his behaviour so my only option was to make noise about other players. ZARE IS CONFIRMED TOWN, DONT YOU DARE DOUBT THIS FOR A SECOND WHEN I FLIP COP.
(back @ desk) Of course if u flip cop.. zare becomes town.. duhhhhh
Spag.. its out of respect your ability that you are getting my vote.
If you were cop.. i would have expected breadcrumbs.. i would have expected a campaign to save zare
instead.. we got you nonchalantly including zarepath in your "pesuade to lynch" group.. and you cant even show a breadcrumb.
Therefore.. its because I respect your ability, that I expected better copy play.. if you were indeed the cop. (this is not a backhanded compliment.. it is a genuine complement)
I think you just played a gambit similar to corazon in newbie 33 (i.e. fake claim).. BUT.. we shall see in 12min.
There was no need for a campaign to save Zare, he did not come under fire. That's why I thought it was safe to say I would vote him, as there didn't seem to be any sign of an attack, and even if there were, a more effective defense would be to attack someone else and place my vote there.
Breadcrumbs... I really wish I did. When I realised that placing breadcrumbs as a cop would probably be advisable, I was also damn lazy. I said the word "polease" instead of "please" in three posts, but this is incredibly weak, I should have been more organised.
I'm sorry to disappoint. I brought this lynch upon myself.
Evil people, them Nihilists. They even own ferrets.
Spaghetticus, the Cop, has gotten his Johnson cut off! Role PM: + Show Spoiler +
You're a Cop! As a great Ontologist, you know all the intricacies of any philisophy out there. Each night, you can discuss philosophy with a person of your choosing. During this discourse, you will find out if they think Substantialistic or Nihilistic. You win when all Nihilists have been eradicated.
TeMiL has not voted. We will try to look for a replacement. If you're interested in joining, PM thrawn or iamperfection, who will handle the search, since I will be unavailable tomorrow (today you can still pm me, too)
It is now Night 2. 24 hours time to submit your nightactions!
GG guys. I don't think this lynch was uncalled for, so no hard feelings from me. I will try once more to patch up my gameplay for next time, so this lesson does not go unlearned.
Thank you Dandel Ion for hosting the game, Your efforts went unsung during the game as it would just be additional fluff, but I really appreciate your efforts.
On January 08 2013 07:14 Spaghetticus wrote: Okay bandwagon has started, and I'm dead certain this will be a killing blow. Though if you could be convinced by this post to not lynch me, that would put town in much better stead, I understand it comes from the lips of a strong suspect and it will only look like WIFOM until after my death.
Town still has a chance with my death, but you are going to have to have to heed my words, and take the risks, as now town is truly behind.
I am cop. I checked Zarepath, and he was clean. My posturing around his lynch was just that. I did not want to have to explain why I was not voting for this incredibly scummy town.
Mocsta and Sylencia \were/ clean. That Mocsta tried to switch wagon on to me as soon as someone else decided it was a good idea makes me wonder. Really at this point I think the best play is to admit that if he’s scum, he’s simply a better player and let him win. If he is not scum then all the suspicion is damaging town, and we sort of need to stick to our scummier players. You will not catch Mocsta if he is scum, take the risk and assume he’s town, YOU NEED TO TAKE RISKS.
Edit before post: the fact that Mocsta has not realised that taking votes off of Jampi and putting them on me means he’s not trying too hard to change the vote from Jamp. Either he’s incredibly confident he can finish me tomorrow, he wants me around to soak up an NK so his continued existence is not so conspicuous, or he is town with a fairly even read between me and Jamp. I want to believe the third option for the reasons above (any attempt to land a Mocstawhale will be unsuccesful, and letting the better man win if he’s scum).
That leaves four out of seven players confirmed town (including myself). After this lynch, so long as I don’t die and I can convince you, at worst it will be four confirmed town vs two scum, which is an easy win.
On top of this, Omni waiting for backup before continuing further gives a town read. If he were scum he’d know he could lead the charge on me without repercussion, and probably seal my fate. This means Jamp and TiMeL as scum team, which actually makes a lot of sense considering how much of our hunting has stuck. The two lurkiest players are scum letting us mob ourselves to death. This still puts Omni in third most scummy position, but killing the other two before him is important. I'll add that because I am cop, this narrows down the possible starting scenarios to either:-
one goon + one roleblocker vs Jailkeeper and five VT
or
two goons vs one cop and six VT
In the latter scenario Omni is lying, so if a JK claims we can rule out the possibility of him lying and jail the remaining person, having ruled out the biggest negative read on Omni. You need to do serious endgame turn math before playing this hand though, as you don't want to die before setting the gambit in motion. This game is close, so your actions will be vital. Hope that Syl and Mocsta are town and stop playing around the possibility of them being scum, otherwise town stand zero chance.
well... I think we should lynch Jampi tomorrow for sure. What we need to do tonight if figure out who is most likely to be targeted. The fact that I was RB'd means we have a JK. Do we want him to try to save or block? Personally I think trying to block the killer has a better chance than trying to save somebody. I guess we've got 24 hours. This lynch hasn't really changed my town reads on people. I believe Jampi and who ever TeMiL is replaced by will be scum.
Sylencia.. I am going to treat you as confirmed town. Your approach this game has been very pragmatic and consistent. [If you are scum.. fucking well done.. i tip my hat to you]
zarepath.. Confirmed town
Mocsta.. say what you want about me listing myself.. but I know I am town and I have been consistent in my play through the game. In hindsight I wish I asked more questions than pushed agenda.. but.. I made a decision based on the lack of discussion.
Mocsta to correct you the only possible set-ups left is either there are NO power roles left, or scum and town have RB/JK respectively. I was RB'd which means we have JK and scum have a RB. It wouldn't make sense for me to fake claim after N1.
I think I did a freudian slip when writing that.. as in.. was thinking of diff scenario whilst writing about another.. so prob a typo or whatever..
anyways
You admitted yesterday, the case on jampidampi was full of statements that were brought together using assumptions (potentially biased).
jampidampi only additional contribution was to make case 2.0 on me.... do you see merit in upgrading your jampi case to 2.0, and removing any confirmation bias?
Day 3 starts; 1 scum : 3 town = MYLO Mod.. if my maths are right, if TeMiL was town and we can't find a replacement, the game is over... (1) is there a deadline to find a replacement & (2) if there is a deadline (say 12hrs for example).. and there is no replacement, and TeMiL was town, can we just end the game prematurely?
On January 08 2013 06:04 OmniEulogy wrote: I must admit I've played with the idea of Mocsta being scum all game long. When he started making those posts on how to scum hunt ect. I was extremely uncomfortable but I had the same feeling from him in XXXIII it was just this time with no Aqua to push for the lynch Mocsta made the case himself so the feeling I had was a bit worse. I've constantly wondered if I were being manipulated by Mocsta and if everybody was being fooled by his treatment to us. He is playing the type of scum game I would attempt. At the same time he is playing the town game I would have liked to if I wasn't so passive-aggressive.
I do have a few problems with your case
"Mocsta is trying to make others think for him. Asking others to do something for you is scummy."
On January 04 2013 22:26 jampidampi wrote: @StriX I have yet to see an action of yours that doesn't fall into the category of arguably scum or town. That is to say every action of yours could have scum or town motives behind them. In my mind you are the scummiest player so the vote stays.
but in his case you say "Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy."
Overall I think I would find your case more compelling if it weren't riddled with lies or hypocrisy. If what you say, and what I fear is true, and Mocsta is scum, this case has not convinced me. The only thing that might save you today from my vote is if Mocsta believes his read on Spag is strong enough to justify changing the vote. Otherwise my vote will be staying on you.
One other thing that might save you is if you can claim JK and prove that you were the one who RB'd me. (I assume it was town as mafia RB just does NOT make sense on me.)
Would you please address the points you think are false specifically? As for my actions on Mocsta, I tried to put myself in the shoes of a town Mocsta, but did not find reasons as to why he would not answear my question. If Mocsta had made some fair points as to what flipped his opinion on you, I would propably not have though of him as scum.
Are you saying that my case on Mocsta is poor because my case on StriX was weak?
On January 08 2013 14:25 jampidampi wrote: (1)As for my actions on Mocsta, I tried to put myself in the shoes of a town Mocsta, but did not find reasons as to why he would not answear my question.
(2)If Mocsta had made some fair points as to what flipped his opinion on you, I would propably not have though of him as scum.
(1) I didn't answer because you are not in a position to be questioning others.. It is you who needs to be answering questions.
If you need.. i can search for multiple questions directed at you, none of which you have answered in recent times.
The most recent, being from Sylencia.
(2) I have my thoughts on OmniEulogy; and plan to share later, when others are on the forum.
Again, I do not think with your current town credibility, you are in a position to demand answers to your questions; in particular when you do not answer questions directed at you.
jampidampi Finland. January 03 2013 22:46. Posts 42 PM Profile Report Quote # filter + Show Spoiler +
I don't think we can call anyone a lurker yet. It has been only 12 hours since the game started, and no analysis/cases have been posted. Once we get a case rolling, be it a scum or town read, we can get discussion and opinions. The only action so far is Mocstas vote for cDgcorazon based on metaread from the one game he played earlier. I'm reading through Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII to get an idea the meta of others. Expect some analysis in while.
As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
StriX is certainly a person worth questioning. Using your own newbines as an argument is usually associated with being scum, not to mention he hasn't posted much. He has no contributions to speak of. So StriX: - Who are analysing/suspecting? - Do you have any prior mafia experience outside TL?
@All Keep the spam like weather updates out of this thread. It only helps the mafia.
He has certaintly stayed true to his posting policy, the problem being that almost nothing he has posted has had any strong content or have much of a meaning. He soft claims newbie in his first post saying "this is my first time playing forum mafia..." and then in his next post hits StriX with suspicion for doing the exact same thing. This early in the game I would also mention that creating a friendly town atmosphere with a few mindless comments about the weather is only threatening to scum. They don't want a love-fest among the townies and at best the weather comment was neutral and wasn't going anywhere. It seems odd to be so opposed to it so early in the game.
If you read carefully, you will see that this is a refernece to my /in post.
On January 04 2013 08:38 OmniEulogy wrote: After reading the following something feels off, it might be a language barrier thing but + Show Spoiler +
From jampidampi: Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Something in that bolded area seems off to me. @Jampi could you clarify when you say everybody should check the QT link they get in their PM?
The OP provided the role PMs for each role. In the scum role PMs there is a direct link to the scum QT. Anyone rational would at least check out the link and post there once to get commucating between his scumpartner going. After all, mafias greatests strength is their information and the possibility of communication.
(1) I would like if you could answer the new questions I addressed to you: @Jampidampi You said you prefer a postcount to post quality ratio skewed in favour of post quality.
Why does your post regarding these three people aid towns scumhunt? What makes this a "quality" post?
The only other person you have identified in your contributions is StriX; the questions are vague at best however.
If StriX remains your primary target, I would like to see you direct more questions his way to develop your profile on him.
If StriX has fallen down the pecking order, I would like to know what has changed your mind.
(2) What is your take on the Sylencia/zarepath exchange of words (and vote(s))?
It was a post of me sharing my weak town reads. I asked the coaches if I should share weak reads, but since they were slow to answear and I was impatient, I went ahead and posted it (they said I shouldn't share weak town reads). It may help others when considering who to scumhunt. I do agree that the post lacks some quality.
I will write my suspicions of/questions to StriX in a separate post to make it more clear.
Zarepath may just have a little bit of tunnel vision. It's good that he's bringing those points up, but I'm statisfied with the answears Sylencia gave.
I have bolded what I would like to be read but feel free to go over all of it in case I've misinterpreted it. After he says he released a bunch of weak town reads and that he was told he shouldn't do that he posts this + Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2013 17:19 jampidampi wrote: After examing StriX filter, he feels scummy. + Show Spoiler +
In his first post he is only agreeing with others and repeating what others already said about the summary plan.
Second post is just policy talk without actually bringing anthing new to the table.
(1) You mention keeping it simple, Lynch the liars + lurkers. Please expand on this. Would you chose liars/lurkers over top scum read?
(2) Noone is asking you to support the summary idea; thus, how do you propose to support town play?
(3) Your post contribution currently is on par with TeMiL and zarepath. If we are you Lynch all lurkers, which of (TeMiL, zarepath, StriX) shall town vote to lynch? Please lead the scum hunt with your chosen candidate.
1. Doesn't seem logical to do that so no. As you can deal with a lying or lurking town with less punishment than .5?-1 death/night.
A bare minimun response to the question.
2. No ideas yet honestly - still getting the hang of who is who.
Seems like coming up with a excuse not to contribute.
3. Zarepath at the moment - mainly due to his policy on no lynch. Town environment can be improved and giving a lynch which could potentially be a free scum kill away seems too steep a price to pay.
Accusing someone based on a nolynch policy is an easy thing to do.
Next three posts are him answearing my questions about the game he played earlier. After that he takes back his suspicions of zarepath stating that
(1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
(2) You said zarepath is your lead suspect. With the information zarepath has presented since Session 2. What are your revised thoughts? If still a target, I suggest you demonstrate your conviction with a vote; otherwise, begin to identify alternative candidates.
1. I'm starting to yes.
Again, bare minimum response.
2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
Targetting the easiest player to target: a lyrker with no contrinutions.
After that he claims to have contributed with an argument that he later took back.
Then he posts his reads/views on everyone without actually giving any reasonings.
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
I guess we have different definitions of top scum reads as I really don't feel supporting no lynch is one. Perhaps in a high level (it'd probably be a meta play there actually) game but not in newbie mafia.
Defends letting go of zarepaths pressure with a different playstyle.
I guess it's easier to spot things when people point them out to you. Honestly forgot you're the one who gave me the names and neglected to check out the others in more detail. Will now be aware of the leading nature of your questions towards myself.
Acknowledges that so far all his actions have been because Mocsta requested him to act.
In his last post he defends his vote on TeMiL with some previous game he played.
Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy. ##Vote StriX
His case on StriX.
Which you don't even analyse. Why mention if you don't analyse it?
Which I believe he admits to being weak later. "My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now."
There are quotation marks there for a reason. I did not believe my case was weak. In fact, if you look at your case on Strix you can see that you only have one point that I didn't have in my case. How is your case any stronger?
He then has his brief dispute with Cora, I tried to think of this from both perspectives and from a scum point of view I believe Cora who has been making great observations all game, and is giving a potential scum player a very hard time while making logical arguments and defending other townies from cases using the same deduction would seem extremely dangerous. I know people have complained that this is me reading too far into things but it is still a factor and should be taken into consideration. the obs QT in NMM XXXIII briefly mentioned my NK when I was pressuring Cora and made a case on FC in the process even though Mocsta was clearly the strongest town. From the scum QT's I've read they always look closest at townies who are the biggest threat and the closest to exposing them for the NK N1.
Only scum know excatly why a NK is made. As Spag points out, if all NK where targetted towards players suspicious of actuall scum, this game would be way easier.
@Spaghetticus You seems to have acted in a way that would allow to you to jump on any bandwagon on a lurker without atracting too much atention. I will go through your filter later today, but so far you seems very suspicious. And this
On January 05 2013 10:50 Spaghetticus wrote: I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves.
seems scummy. Not giving information away is suspicious. Could you straight up tell me why you voted on StriX?
On January 05 2013 09:35 Mocsta wrote: when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
You seem very sure that StriX would flip town. Would you mind giving your reasonings to this? Did you have a townread on him and what in his play made him look like town to you?
On January 05 2013 04:39 zarepath wrote: I am working on a long post of my own.
Yet we never saw that. Care to explain?
which was prompted by Mocsta I believe. This entire post has essentially no meaning. It's one large summary and the questions at the end are mediocre at best and easy to come up with. There is no new information in the entire post. This is when I began to seriously look at Jampi as possible scum. He has still up to this point failed to contribute largely to any scum hunt, and the case he admits was weak was made on a confirmed town at this point. If he knew StriX was town it would explain why he didn't push more for his lynch but instead sat back and did not contribute and let us lynch him, as I've said previously. He even tries to say after StriX lynch that I look the most suspicious for making my case on him and pushing for his lynch when he voted for the same target first.
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
This blew my mind. He has done nothing up to this point. Has said I was suspicious, and AGAIN tries to force Mocsta of all people to continue to make cases on me. Did he even read Mocsta's case on me? (Mocsta's case was made before this) It's almost like he doesn't have an opinion on it, or he doesn't care. He said he like to share his opinions on people. Holy shit here's a prime opportunity to say anything he wants about me and he tries to push it onto Mocsta? Scum behavior. Massive scum read on him from this post. This has made him my #1 scum read at this point.
So Mocsta pressuring you and then suddenly stopping, is not a good enough reason to pressure him?
Then we get into the JK/RB debate and the only thing he is really talking about is which set-up we might have. He never goes into detail and only corrects Syl on which roles are in which scenario. He continues to push Mocsta for his opinion on me and whether or not he thinks I am still scum.
Usually when someone answears your question with something like not having enough time, you bring the question back later.
At this point I'd really hope Jampi would have his own opinion on me. FFS I even told him I would welcome any questions he had on me but he says nothing. He then tries to accuse Mocsta as being scum, I'm not against somebody trying to do this, I think Mocsta could pull it off and we'd be screwed in a newbie game but the way he does it...
I did not have a strong opinion on you at that time.
"I urge everyone to go through Mocstas filter and re-evaluate, if his truly is town. His only big contributions are the cases on Omni and TeMiL, which reek of utter bullshit. Other than that he has just been leading the town to the direction he wants with his questions." - Jampi
Why is his case on me Bullshit? I didn't agree with a lot of it and I think most of it was personal opinion with very little facts but I have the advantage of knowing I'm town. YOU(jampi) Do not. YOU(jampi) Have claimed I was suspicious and should be looked at thoroughly and have said absolutely nothing to take that opinion back.
If you don't agree with the points I made on Mocsta case on you, why not address these points specifically?
He then promises a larger case on Mocsta and here we are. He hasn't posted a single thing after that. He has no motivation to help town and quite honestly hasn't tried to help town at all this game. He has not followed up on what he claimed he was good at in his first post. Some of these arguments are weak and some are my personal view on things but there are many facts in how he has played that make him seem like mafia. This is why I said he is easily my choice for lynch tonight. Sorry Syl I didn't explain myself out thoroughly and that is my fault. I hope this helps you see how I have come to this conclusion.
My case on Mocsta took me really long to make. Addressing almost every post a player has made is not something you do in an hour.
On January 08 2013 01:03 Sylencia wrote: So basically, for jampi, I already did him for Day 1, so adding to it for day 2:
On January 06 2013 09:24 OmniEulogy wrote: gg Cora. I was role blocked.
This is curious. Why would OmniEulogy be roleblocked? A jailkeeper would target someone he believes will be killed. Scum had no motivation to kill Omni, because he was the other suspicious player D1 and thus would be pressured at least N1, if not D2 potentially leading to another misslynch. Many pointed that if StriX flips town (which he did), Omni would be very suspicious. A jailkeeper could also potentially target a scumread in hopes that a) he is scum and b) he carries out the nightkill. Even if he was 100% sure that Omni was scum, that would still only lead to 50/50 chance of blocking the kill. Thus I don't this is likely. A scum roleblocker would target Omni if he thought he had a blue role. A scum roleblocker might target Omni in hopes that he claims and someone suspects this claim.
@All Should townies always claim being roleblocked in this setup? Do you think the scum roleblocker would target Omni? Or do think he faked the claim? Or do you have any better reasoning for a jailkeeper to target Omni?
This is attempted analysis, but it doesn't say anything at all. Doesn't state if he thinks it's a RB or JK, it's just statements which could have been drawn pretty easily by anyone.
I have bolded some parts of my orginal post where I say that a JK targetting Omni would not make sense.
The case on Mocsta is the only other big post on day 2, it's not really a solid case either. It honestly rates about the same level as Strix's case he posted which I said was weak on Day 1 as well.
Mocsta had asked for comments on his case on Omni. While reading through it with care I noticed that Mocsta had fabricated some of the evidence in his case. Posting some thoughs on it would help Mocsta then give his opinion on them. But after reading through it again before posting, I became very suspicious. I checked his filter and it confirmed my suspicions. I decided to post it to see his response. Voting on him then and there just made the reactions more extreme. And as I stated in post, I had to leave after posting.
2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
By not being suspicious. If they are careful and appear as townies, we don't have a way of identifying them as scum. Just flying under the radar while townies aggressively blame eachother leading to a misslynch is a perfect mafia D1.
Jampi, you're flying under the radar more than pretty much anyone here. Are you following your own advice or are you just playing badly?
Some may say I'm playing badly, some may say that I'm not interested in the game, some may say I'm a passive player, some may say I'm afraid to post, some may I have a real life. But I don't think my actual answear matters to you, as you can just pass it as an excuse for not contributing.
@Mocsta: Now that I have answeared all the question, it is your turn. Answear me. You claim that my case for you is weak, if this is true, then go ahead and rip it apart. I bet you cannot actually do that.
just woke up.. look.. theres 2 hrs to the deadline, and so far, no replacement.
if town surives into day3, and im alive, i will answer you. but, dont even know if the game will continue.. so.. im not going to bother with 2 hrs left.
look, thanks for donig a post-by-post of me, im sure it would have taken a while... prob was a waste of time in the end, but what can ya do.
hey guys.. i don't think a town player would have been so tunnel minded as jampidampi during the Day 2/Night 2 events.. so its obvious he is scum... if somehow this game till goes on, might as when vote him out Day2. [There were some major events happening Day 2, and he did not contribute at all, instead, claiming to spend the whole day making a case on me.. thats real effective scum hunting right there...)
I have my thoughts on between Omni/TeMiL.. but dont want to bulid association cases.. so.. take out jampi first... then if a JK can step up, I guess Omni is innocent, and if a JK doesn't step up.. Omni will need to be scrutinised..
Alright, on the off-chance I get killed tonight and TeMiL does get a replacement so the game goes on I think I'm going to leave my will to all of you <3
I'd like to start off by saying I believe Spag was right about Jampi and TeMiL. I've said it several times myself and nothing that has happened recently has changed that. Jampi waits until after we lynch Spag to say anything, if he was town he would have made his defense and posted it before the lynching. Scum now feels no pressure so he had all the time in the world to write up his defense. I believe TeMiL is the 2nd scum in this game, he voted for Jampi to try and hide the fact that they were together. Not very hard to do when you post 1 time a day in the first place but oh well. I am also claiming jail keeper. If you think about it, it's not very hard to see, I did that intentionally after getting role blocked N1 to try and throw a bone to our cop. It is also why I started to talk to Jampi about the possibility of a cop being in the game, I knew there was one. It's also why I was so nervous about lynching Spag due to no counter-claim. However him still trying to put Zare on the list after knowing he was town was so strange. I figured it was 50/50 between him and TeMiL at that point and figured we got unlucky and TeMiL got cop. Sadly this was not the case. Anyway N1 I hit Mocsta with my night action. I really really really regret saying I was role blocked as quickly as I did, if Mocsta is scum role blocker I blew the best chance to find out, and as soon as I hit enter on my post I realized that. dumb mistake. I also asked the question if RB and JK could both target the same person, again as a way to try and reach out to our cop. I was JK so I knew he was in the game. Cop knows I got RB'd which means unless I'm fake claiming he'll immediately know what set-up we are playing in. Unfortunately it didn't work exactly as I had intended. I believe Spag picked up on these things and realized I knew something but wasn't entirely convinced it wasn't because I was scum. Anyway I'm sorry for the WALL of text but I don't want this to be read quickly at the end of this night and allow for a last minute vote change. Here's hoping I guess correctly tonight I'll be targeting the player from my 80th post, 46th line (not counting spoilers or quotes) and eight words in. On the off chance scum would have time to change their vote at the last minute if I am correct I'd just like to say fuck you, good luck changing it now I should also mention my posts regarding if I could talk about what the coach told me. This is because with 2 hours left Spag claimed, I was told that two hours would be the appropriate time to give town enough room to discuss it properly. This matched with what Spag did and made me think he had received the same advice.Oh yeah, I'm just going to throw this in there but I did breadcrumb myself for N1. While I was talking to Mocsta + Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 12:14 cDgCorazon wrote: How about you answer the questions given to you before you demand anything from us Moc.
It is answered now..
Thus the below stands...
On January 05 2013 12:12 Mocsta wrote:
On January 05 2013 09:55 OmniEulogy wrote: I think TeMiL's case should be looked at during D2 and we need to put some serious attention on him. Get him to put down all his thoughts on what happened D1 during N1. We Need him to start contributing.
How convenient OE.
I havn't read the whole thread, but now know StriX was VT.
Cora /Spag better build some pressure/cases on you like that promised.
I am not going to let you target TeMiL to lower your suspicion.,
I should add that I'm not targeting TeMiL as a scum suspect. I asked him those questions to get him to contribute. I believe trying to figure out what he is atm is useless. Maybe after he answers those questions we'll be able to have some sort of read but I'm not getting my hopes up. Just Keep thinking what you will though.
Unfortunately I was concerned it was a fake claim and his last attempt to get either our cop or JK to step forward to prove him right. I made two massive fuck-ups yesterday, one being not staying on Jampi when I was torn between the two and the other was not switching back when there was no counter-claim and begging the rest of you to do so as well. For that I am sorry. My last advice would be to go after Jampi and TeMiL. Mocsta scum means they have won at this point. and if I don't die tonight and give us an extra day, we'll still be highly pressured. This doesn't say much about my reads ect. because I feel scum is def. Jampi and TeMiL. Also sorry about not posting till the deadline. I wanted to try and place a bit of suspicion in scum if I was really the jail keeper or not. If I get roleblocked again it'll be unfortunate, if I get killed, even worse lol I will say though that Mocsta scum would not make sense unless he's very good at pretending to be mad. It's very easy to see a strong player as a scum player in these newbie games. Again, sorry for the wall of text.
Omni.. i appreciate you calling me strong (same goes to cora).. but.. the feedback im getting doesnt agree.. so .... i think its just i have a style that dominates this low feedback forum (newbie games).. but happens in the non-newbie.. i shall sink massively.. who knows.
Omni targeted me and the kill happened (TeMiL was dead, so couldnt put an action in.. thus.. only 1 mafia existed for kill) and zarepath is cop confirmed.
its officially a toss up between Sylencia/jampidampi
The count is 3:1; and are in MYLO.
@zarepath.. i know I already asked.. but now that you know I AM CONFIRMED town.
can you please share your thoughts on Sylencia vs jampidampi
@jampi You have spent an entire Day2/Night2.. working on a case on me.. I am not CONFIRMED town. zarepath is confirmed town.
Please make your case on Sylencia, for zarepath and myself to consider.
Moc, you do somethin even remotelly looking like breaking a single unimportant rule in the entire world, anywhere, I'm gonna modkill your ass so hard you can hear the sound up into the antarctic.
Consider this like, your final ever waringn im ever giving you.
On January 09 2013 09:25 Mocsta wrote: OK Guys.. there are now 2 confirmed townies.....
Omni targeted me and the kill happened (TeMiL was dead, so couldnt put an action in.. thus.. only 1 mafia existed for kill)
Not necessarily, I read the scum QT from last game, only 1 person needs to put in an action for everyone. http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/xQZSPrrUqHPF - Scum QT from last game around post 60 you'll see they discuss who is performing what action. But in any case, I didn't think you were scum, and now I have to make another case against jampi.
In addition, did you actually get roleblocked or not, because if you did get roleblocked another person got roleblocked.
We now know that Temil was scum, and so you look at the interactions between the accused and the known scum.
In this case though, literally nothing directly mentions Temil, except for one point in his post against Mocsta saying that his cases against OE and Temil were bs. Why is there such extreme distancing between yourself and Temil? Distancing is a scummy trait.
Temil votes Jampi day 1. Since Temil was actually around during Day 1, I can only assume that he's made a calculated move, whether or not he was told to do it I don't know but he voted at the very end of the day. If you assume that he was told to vote for Jampi, it could've been a nice play (if he didn't get modkilled).
Since this point will also be brought up by jampi, here is my defense for it: If I was scum, why on earth would I tell him or let him vote for the same person as I am, where we are the only ones voting for you? That causes some pretty easy targetting if one of us got killed, and it's just overall horrible scum play. If you still have questions about this, feel free to bring it up.
I decided to re-evaluate my reads on Sylencia and jampidampi.
I noticed peculiarities that about both of you, that I think is worth addressing.
Before, issuing my questions, I will be patient and wait for jampidampi to come back.
@jampidampi.. 4hrs has expired since the Night2 action. I know that you have typically made posts around this time. So I am going to give you a full 8hrs from now to respond that you have acknowledged what has been put forth post-Night2. I dont care right now if you are working on a case.. what i need to know now is that you are present among us.
If you do not post acknowledgement, and statement of intentions within the next 12 hrs I will have no choice but to lay my vote down your name. The justification being that (1) I know from timestamps, you typically post around this time. (2) Giving how critical we are with numbers.. there is no way you would not have shown activity. Lack of activity this stage of the game = scum play.
In your time, it would be 2am.. I am goign to give you to 8pm your time to respond....
@Mocsta: I'm present right now, but will leave on a short notice. I will be back in about 8 hours. I still find it hard to believe that you were actually town, but after looking at Omnis post 80 line 46 word 8, I quess I'll have to accept that you are town. If you can give me your questions at around 8 hours from now I will be able to answear them pretty much right away. After answearing them I will look at Sylencias actions and his filter, hopefully convincing you gyus that he is the one you should lynch.
On January 03 2013 22:46 jampidampi wrote: ... As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
On January 03 2013 22:46 jampidampi wrote: .. Once we get a case rolling, be it a scum or town read, we can get discussion and opinions. ... Expect some analysis in while.
On January 05 2013 00:31 jampidampi wrote: To everyone saying that I am lurker: I may have very few posts, but each and every one of them holds a meaning. I do not post without thinking. Every post is crafted with a clear purpose to push the town agenda. Randomly pointing out suspicions that are not severe enough to warrant a case on someone just makes them play more carefully. If the intention is to actually catch a scum, you need to tell about your suspicions while actually providing sufficient evidence. But if you require pointing fingers of suspicion around whenever theres even a bit of scumminess, I will begin to do so.
TL;DR jampidampi promises that lynching lurker is fine if no scum read. jampidampi promises that all posts have meaning jampidampi promises analysis jampiagain promises all posts have meaning and quality
Very active, as he was in Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII. He's constantly trying to pressure people into posting, going as far as giving them advice on what to post. He was also doing it during XXXIII, so I wouldn't read too much into it. Also, he is the only one who has taken concrete actions (the vote on cDgCorazon) during this whole time. Leaning towards town
If we exclude the the QT question, he plays the way he played in earlier games. First posting a list of lurkers and pressuring them to contribute, then beginning to analyse individual cases. I believe that
On January 03 2013 11:42 Spaghetticus wrote: DO NOT LURK. IDGAF WHO PLAYS SCUMMY I WILL BE VOTING THE LURKIEST PLAYER DAY ONE PERIOD.
was his way of saying that he hates lurkers.
Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Appears to be playing diffrently from Newbie XXXIII. He hasn't been as active this time around, and he isn't as aggressive with his scum claims. And I don't think he would be purposefully bringing up his scum game so many times if he actually was a scum. Leaning towards town
Please note that the analysis on Spaghetticus was written before his post answearing questions.
@Spaghetticus You seems to have acted in a way that would allow to you to jump on any bandwagon on a lurker without atracting too much atention. I will go through your filter later today, but so far you seems very suspicious. And this
On January 05 2013 10:50 Spaghetticus wrote: I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves.
seems scummy. Not giving information away is suspicious. Could you straight up tell me why you voted on StriX?
On January 05 2013 09:35 Mocsta wrote: when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
You seem very sure that StriX would flip town. Would you mind giving your reasonings to this? Did you have a townread on him and what in his play made him look like town to you?
On January 05 2013 04:39 zarepath wrote: I am working on a long post of my own.
Yet we never saw that. Care to explain?
TL;DR jampidampi posts reads which contains 3 players he suspects are town. (2 have died and were town) jampiadmpi posts summary and addresses questions to 3 players (all confirmed town)
(1) You mention keeping it simple, Lynch the liars + lurkers. Please expand on this. Would you chose liars/lurkers over top scum read?
(2) Noone is asking you to support the summary idea; thus, how do you propose to support town play?
(3) Your post contribution currently is on par with TeMiL and zarepath. If we are you Lynch all lurkers, which of (TeMiL, zarepath, StriX) shall town vote to lynch? Please lead the scum hunt with your chosen candidate.
1. Doesn't seem logical to do that so no. As you can deal with a lying or lurking town with less punishment than .5?-1 death/night.
A bare minimun response to the question.
2. No ideas yet honestly - still getting the hang of who is who.
Seems like coming up with a excuse not to contribute.
3. Zarepath at the moment - mainly due to his policy on no lynch. Town environment can be improved and giving a lynch which could potentially be a free scum kill away seems too steep a price to pay.
Accusing someone based on a nolynch policy is an easy thing to do.
Next three posts are him answearing my questions about the game he played earlier. After that he takes back his suspicions of zarepath stating that
(1) Have your ideas expanded on "who is who"? Please share
(2) You said zarepath is your lead suspect. With the information zarepath has presented since Session 2. What are your revised thoughts? If still a target, I suggest you demonstrate your conviction with a vote; otherwise, begin to identify alternative candidates.
1. I'm starting to yes.
Again, bare minimum response.
2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
Targetting the easiest player to target: a lyrker with no contrinutions.
After that he claims to have contributed with an argument that he later took back.
Then he posts his reads/views on everyone without actually giving any reasonings.
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
I guess we have different definitions of top scum reads as I really don't feel supporting no lynch is one. Perhaps in a high level (it'd probably be a meta play there actually) game but not in newbie mafia.
Defends letting go of zarepaths pressure with a different playstyle.
I guess it's easier to spot things when people point them out to you. Honestly forgot you're the one who gave me the names and neglected to check out the others in more detail. Will now be aware of the leading nature of your questions towards myself.
Acknowledges that so far all his actions have been because Mocsta requested him to act.
In his last post he defends his vote on TeMiL with some previous game he played.
Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy. ##Vote StriX
On January 03 2013 10:37 OmniEulogy wrote: Whoa didn't expect it to start tonight. I'm extremely tired guys and I was about to go to sleep till I saw the PM. I'll catch up tomorrow when I wake up x.x
Quickly though - for those of you who played with me last game my views stay the same for Policy lynches. We shouldn't lynch the lurkers D1 just because they aren't active, we need to actively scum hunt and push our top scum reads. I WILL lynch liars though. Townies don't need to lie in this game.
That's all I've got to say about that I'm looking forward to this getting going!
(1) Policy talk from all is typically meaningless fluff at the start. You say you will actively scum hunt.. but what have you contributed actively? A vote on zarepath.. because he votes no-lynch early game. that is not active scum hunting. That is prejudice. I can vote 100 people between now and deadline. its the vote at deadline that matters. First sign you need to step up your game.. the question is whether town or scum motivation.
To me, I take this 50/50. So null read.
How do you not include Omnis case on StriX as active scumhunting? Your reasoning for StriX being town is
I personally didnt like his requests.. BUT.. in newbie 33 there were other townies who voiced the same requests StriX.. (I am referring to medic to my marine Spag)... so I gave StriX some dispensation (based on my past experiences).
So you think his play is bad and you let it go because this is a newbie game? I could understand this if your townread on StriX was something more than giving him some dispensation.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Unvote: Zarepath given the three/four pages I need to catch up in and what I have read so far I don't believe my vote should still rest on Zare for this lynch. I think he has now contributed more than several others and it would be worse for town to lose him at this moment. I think TeMiL is just really bad town so I wont be voting for him either. I'll have a longer post written up shortly.
Also spag I only read your last post as writing this and I have no idea what you are talking about. I think you have this made up illusion that I have something against you because of NMM XXXIII. Get over it. You are trying to get people to think that we can't agree on anything and that our opinions will always be different. As I know I am town, I can only see it as a move to try to divide townies and get us to lose faith in each other, please stop or I'll assume its scum motivated instead of you dwelling too much on the past.
(7) Interesting. The justification is quite weak to remove the vote.. He has contributed? big whoop, this is a piss poor attempt to move onto another target. You are admitting here your actual vote justification was weak, or even just sheeping. Again, how does that help town win? You never post your write-up either... I am on the thread 3-4hrs later, and its not there, what we get is a summary.
Your justification for removing your suspicions from Mocsta are even weaker. You only say
I am stuck with you. I don't think my case had confirmation bias (unfortunately only Corazon has commented). The problem is, on a re-read, and considering content since the case.. I do find some material to be incredibly town motivated.
Even if I ask you do not provide more reasonings for letting down your suspicions on him.
On January 05 2013 07:06 OmniEulogy wrote: My case on StriX.
Why he is my top scum read.
Syl gave him a very nice resume as Mocsta called it and made me look forward to what he would bring to the table to help us with his insight. However I have not seen any of it in nearly 48 hours. Perhaps a town StriX would make large posts and push strong scum reads however that is not what we have seen at all.
He plays a newbie card early on and on top of that votes for TeMiL and feels that after making that his only useful(?) post he should not be grouped together with him as a lurker.
@OmniEulogy by the way - if you reread I was the first to call out zarepath on his no-lynch so it's amusing to me that you use it as an argument then call me out for contributing nothing.
@cDGCorazon I shouldn't be grouped with TeMil.
If mentioning no-lynch is a massive contribution I must be severely missing something about this game. Especially after Syl brought up all the insight you bring to the game.
He follows up when asked why he doesn't pursue Zare with this
On January 04 2013 15:27 StriX wrote:
Why have you backed off zarepath? I want to know rationale, you should have this case-at-hand if you are analytically minded as Sylencia stated.
Seems to defeat the purpose - Much easier to wait for a mistake then tell someone your watching them and expect one. Not to mention you could create one self fulfilling prophecy style.
Basically, he wants to lurk and watch his target without forcing his scum read to actually answer any questions... thus giving him no new information. This is not a town way of scum hunting. It is scum pretending to hunt scum while allowing himself to continue to lurk. He also admits that Mocsta has fed him the names for his top scum reads at that point in time. No real searching involved.
We then have his take on Zare's case vs Syl and how to support/promote town play
On January 04 2013 21:19 StriX wrote: oops forgot this bit
On January 03 2013 22:47 StriX wrote: (2) [Mocsta] thus, how do you propose to support town play?
At this point transparent observations are my strength. Aggression for me is fun and all but very often seems to lead to situations we have with Sylencia v Zarepath.
He wants to lurk as town and offer no helpful information himself and use information other people gather to give his opinions. On top of this he then criticizes it when it is exactly what Syl had to do to answer Zare's case. It makes no sense considering it is exactly what he wants to watch happen. (have people question each other for information so he can make cases) The only problem with what happened was that a bandwagon did not form on a possibly innocent Syl and thus as scum he had nowhere to hitch his vote to.
He also backtracks on Zare just based on the fact that he no longer things the no-lynch would be scummy without a good reason. Stating "it was a ploy" and that is all.
At this point in time StriX has moved to my top scum read and therefore I am voting for him. ##Vote: StriX
(9) The vote on StriX. Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking.. Seriosly Omni... future games you roll as town, you need to let it go man.... Justification regarding StriX->zarepath is weak, but passable as a town motivation.
Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification.
While Omni may quote yuor comments, you never say that you are waiting for StriX to contribute a big post. And Omni does not talk policy in his case, he is accusing StriX of just talking policy.
Not to mention posting your case 1 hour before the deadline, even if, as you state yourself, you had your scumread atleast 10 hours beforehand. Your case on TeMiL seems like an excuse not to post a real case. Then you can just say that a coach gave you the advise to pursue your read and that is why posted it so late.
I urge everyone to go through Mocstas filter and re-evaluate, if his truly is town. His only big contributions are the cases on Omni and TeMiL, which reek of utter bullshit. Other than that he has just been leading the town to the direction he wants with his questions. What has he actually contributed since N1? Since D1? He has defended himself. I will post a bigger case later, but right now I need to leave for school.
On January 08 2013 05:42 jampidampi wrote: Making this took way longer than I expected, but here it is: My case on Mocsta
I think Mocsta is an active scum rather than a passive one. And what I mean by that is that instead of trying to stay in the shadows, he is come aggressively forth, being confident not to slip. His main motive isn't to stay hidden, it is to cause caos while appearing as the most contributing person. He does a very good job of missleading town. I will now explain how his posts are crafted to help his agenda.
His posts can basicly be split into five categories:
Mocsta starts the game with policytalk. Some more policy talk. Later, he comments on the power of a vote. That's it for posts solely on policy talk. Mocsta has some other posts were he touches on lynching policy, but overall he seems to avoid the subject. Talking about policy is something easy for mafia to do, so by avoiding it his "contributions" seem more of a town nature. More so than that, it gives him the opportunity to attack others because they are talking about policy.
I know its a long read, but, if I could have only one contribution to town for this game.. I would be satisfied by having posted this.
He mentions in the orginal post that he would like if it had no impact on our reads, and then goes and claims that this is his best contribution. Why would he claim something as his best contribution if he did not intend do give it as an contribution? Because he is scum trying to appear as town.
All of these are easy accusations to do. There is no deeper thought behind most of these. They help Mocsta establish a protown image while making others appear as more suspicious. + Show Spoiler [Cases] +
Mocstas case on TeMiL At the start, it seems as though Mocsta tries to make it acceptable that he doesn't post any analysis at all. Later on he even said that he had a slight scumread on Omni even before making this post. Even in his opening post he quotes cakepie to say that policy lynching is not an substitute for active scumhunting. Yet he still wants to kill TeMiL because he is not contributing, even thought Mocsta later say that he is 100% town. This is certainly suspicious. Going after the easy target, he would not have to fabricate lies to make his case good.
On January 03 2013 10:37 OmniEulogy wrote: Whoa didn't expect it to start tonight. I'm extremely tired guys and I was about to go to sleep till I saw the PM. I'll catch up tomorrow when I wake up x.x
Quickly though - for those of you who played with me last game my views stay the same for Policy lynches. We shouldn't lynch the lurkers D1 just because they aren't active, we need to actively scum hunt and push our top scum reads. I WILL lynch liars though. Townies don't need to lie in this game.
That's all I've got to say about that I'm looking forward to this getting going!
(1) Policy talk from all is typically meaningless fluff at the start. You say you will actively scum hunt.. but what have you contributed actively? A vote on zarepath.. because he votes no-lynch early game. that is not active scum hunting. That is prejudice. I can vote 100 people between now and deadline. its the vote at deadline that matters. First sign you need to step up your game.. the question is whether town or scum motivation.
Why doesn't Mocsta consider Omnis case on StriX as scumhunting? Omni gives out valid points against StriX, but he ignore this as a contributing early and later attacks Omni based on the case even though he himself said it was one of Omnis key posts. Contradicting yourself in the same post. Feels scummy.
On January 05 2013 04:33 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Unvote: Zarepath given the three/four pages I need to catch up in and what I have read so far I don't believe my vote should still rest on Zare for this lynch. I think he has now contributed more than several others and it would be worse for town to lose him at this moment. I think TeMiL is just really bad town so I wont be voting for him either. I'll have a longer post written up shortly.
(7) Interesting. The justification is quite weak to remove the vote.. He has contributed? big whoop, this is a piss poor attempt to move onto another target. You are admitting here your actual vote justification was weak, or even just sheeping. Again, how does that help town win?
It is interesting how Mocsta sees Omni retracting his vote as scum, when he himself retracts hisstance on Omniwith even worse reasoning. His opinion on Omni changes even before he has taken his time to read the thread properly? If he didn't read the thread just what on earth made Mocsta change his opinion? Knowing Omni is town would be one and only mafia 100% that someone is town.
Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking..
Omni just quoted Mocsta a bit, and he ha sn't even said that he waited a big post from StriX. And there is no policy talk, Omni just says that StriX mentioning zarepaths no-lynch policy is not a big contribution. Omni is not doing the policy talking, he is attacking StriX for talking policy. It seems as though Mocsta didn't even read Omnis post properly, or that he is trying to come up with arguments for his case, even when none exist. How is this town minded at all? It isn't, it is telltale scum behavior.
Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification.
Omni is not using policy lynching as an argument anywhere in his case. What Omni actually states is that StriX being suspicious of zarepath because of the no-lynch and then backtracking on it, saying that he (StriX) doesn't consider the no-lynch so scummy anymore, is, in fact, scummy behavior. Intentianally missunderstanding someone is scummy
All in all, your case is weak. You twist Omnis words to fit your reasonig, and post the case late causing confusion, even though you had your suspicions for a while. This is really scummy.
These cases of yours reek of scum mentality. First going after the easy target with TeMiL and then going after Omni hoping for a last minute confusion bandwagon.
Mocsta creates discussions, making him seem more of an townie, but in reality he is leading everyones thoughts. He is making everyone think for him while his actual contributions remains at a minimum.
These will be split into to categories: posts where Mocsta defends himself and posts where he reasons without someone asking for it. + Show Spoiler [Defenses] +
Mocsta makes his stance on Corazon clear. His is placing his vote on Cora to fabricate giving pressure. It is easy for him to back of stating that he should not pay attention to previous games, but this one. He defends his ask questions but do not answear them-policy. A beatiful way to avoid Syls question while making it seem that just asking questions is giving his thoughs on everything. And says he is not going to comment on the zare/Syl conversation. How is this town oriented? Mocsta defends his vote on TeMiL. He defends his coming voteswitch. He defends presenting his case late. Mocsta defends hisreadonOmni. Then he defends his townread on StriX. Mocsta townread is based on giving dispensation to StriX, not on his actions. What? Mocsta can't give us a single action of StriXs with town motives and still considers him town? This is just an excuse for what he said earlier. And he defends his lack of analysis. Another post defending the Omni case. And yet another post defending the Omni case. Mocstas hint to changing his opinion on Omni just seems as a hindsight way of avoiding responsibility. And nowhere do I state that I am any good at analysing. It seems he is missinterpretetting this post in which I state that random accusations will lead us next to nowhere. Mocsta defending his vote on me while reasoning not to lynch TeMiL. Notice how he is still not giving his reasonings but letting others figure them out? This is not town play. And he does not address the case of a misslynch, which was the orginal point of Syl: not bringing us to a point were TeMiLs vote decides the game. He finally addresses Sylencias point of TeMiL being maybe scum while defending not lynching TeMiL. Still doesn't address if he is in the event of a misslynch okay with TeMiLs vote deciding the game. Because he is scum and this would actually benefit him. Mocsta defends himself against me pointing out his bad logic on his Omni case. Why the heck doesn't he bother to write down what is wrong with my reasoning? If there actually was something wrong with it, why not point it out? It is because he is trying to undermine my credibility in fear of the actual case. He defends not lynching TeMiL. He just theorises about random lynching while providing nothing new. Another post defending not lynching TeMiL. Again not giving his thoughs on whether he thinks it is okay to have TeMiLs vote decide the game. Mocsta defending not lynching TeMiL and his vote on me. In what basicly is a summary post. Mocsta defending his statement that town is winning. How can anyone think that town is winning? If we don't lynch scum now, it's LYLO the next day. Mocsta defending his various arguments. Then he defends Omni, without actually telling us why he considers him town. Notica also how he treats his case on Omni as two players misscommuncating. Even though most of Mocstas points do not stem from a dialog.
After D1 until my vote on him, Mocsta is very defensive, not contributing much of anything else than his defenses. + Show Spoiler [Orginal reasonings] +
Mocsta reason in advance his voteswitch. Mocsta giving his general musings. Basicly a summary post, where he states that Spag is his top read. If Spag is his top read why not vote for him? Or atleast provide a case? This is classic scummy behavior. Mocsta theorising associations. He has stated many times before that he doesn't want to make association cases. Yet what does he do now?
As we can see he doesn't reason much if something isn't asked from him. Not giving information is scummy.
Mocsta advocating that we have a good chance tolynchscum, but is not scumhunting himself. Thesepost seems just a way to pressure others to jump on the bandwagon Mocsta has been building on me. Very scummy.
TL;DR: He is leading others while his contributions remain subpar. Not giving information is a huge scumtell and not voting for your top scum read while constantly changing it without reasonings is really scummy. If Mocsta doesn't flip scum, I'm utterly confused.
On January 05 2013 09:38 StriX wrote: Seems the fire is burning full flame. You're very good at baiting me into responding. I now believe the mafia pair to be Omni + Mocsta. Mocsta until this point has been baiting jampidampi into me and is using this vote to clear himself. Mocsta also very cleverly uses this out of character last minute post case on OmniEulogy to clear himself after my flip. It becomes even more suspicious when I mention IF mocsta doesn't die as if I am the one who chooses (mia cupla).
Be very careful of the leading nature of Mocsta's Question time. OmniEulogy is very good at rehashing made points.
That is all.
TL;DR jampidampi makes case against confirmed town StriX jampidampi makes case against confirmed town Mocsta jampidampi makes case against confirmed town Mocsta
On January 03 2013 10:36 cDgCorazon wrote: ... (2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
By not being suspicious. If they are careful and appear as townies, we don't have a way of identifying them as scum. Just flying under the radar while townies aggressively blame eachother leading to a misslynch is a perfect mafia D1.
You specifically mention "flying under the radar" as a good mafia trait to perfect. Your filter is 1.5 pages; and many confirmed townies have questioned your post integrity. Anyone would think that low post count, and low quality count is equivalent to flying under the radar... a trait you mention is mafia aligned.
On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
Targetting the easiest player to target: a lyrker with no contrinutions.
In his last post he defends his vote on TeMiL with some previous game he played.
Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy. ##Vote StriX
You promised before that it is acceptable to lynch a lurker if there is no better scum read. StriX does not have a scum read, so votes a lurker.. You call him out for this? Is that not odd?
I happened to notice that StriX voted TeMiL.... a confirmed MAFIA.. do you not find it odd that when Strix votes a mafia player.. you retaliate by voting Strix?
On January 05 2013 19:12 jampidampi wrote: I will try to gather here the big events of D1 leading to the misslynch of StriX.
38. TeMiL comes out of nowhere and votes me. @Spaghetticus ...
@Mocsta ...
@zarepath ...
What is odd is that you acknowledge TeMiL votes for you (out of nowhere)... yet the 3 people you choose to question further are Spag, Mocsta and zarepath (all confirmed town).
The rest of your filter does not question TeMiL...is it not odd that you accept this vote, and do not challenge it?
On January 05 2013 02:29 jampidampi wrote: @Sylencia ... You overlook the fact that I voted for him because he has no actions that have only town motives behind them.
(2)
On January 08 2013 05:42 jampidampi wrote: ...(Accusation) They help Mocsta establish a protown image while making others appear as more suspicious.
So you admit I am establishing a town image, and by being protown implies only town motives.. yet you make a case on me?
Between your summary post, and the case on me. The only content you discussed pertained to setups. You did not actively scum hunt, and contribute in the on going discussion.
The time that elapsed between your summary post and the case on me was approximately 30 hrs. I understand you want all your posts to be meaningful; but that is not an acceptable time span between meaningful contributions.
If anything, it looks like "flying under the radar" a trait you described earlier in question (a) as a scum tendency. Please explain.
From jampidampi: Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Something in that bolded area seems off to me. @Jampi could you clarify when you say everybody should check the QT link they get in their PM?
The OP provided the role PMs for each role. In the scum role PMs there is a direct link to the scum QT...
Your response was pretty standard answer to a question that any alignment could respond with.
Considering all the questions I have regarding you above.. the behaviour patterns are looking scummy.
Of course, I offered that olive branch, so in being open minded:
Combining all the information I am now aware of, OmniEulogy question to you, appears as a genuine scum slip (on your behalf).
If a JK and an RB role block each other, do they both receive notifications?
In the above scenario, if the RB is also the mafia's kill targeter and he happens to target the JK, does the kill happen successfully?
The OP confuses me in this scenario between "Roleblockers roleblocking each other will roleblock both of them." and "All successful roleblocks will result in the target being notified."
Roleblockers roleblocking each other will roleblock both of them. Roleblocker A blocking Roleblocker B who tries to roleblock Randomguy C will result in only B being roleblocked.
All successful roleblocks will result in the target being notified.
One person on the mafia team may carry out the kill each night. The mafia can choose not to kill. The mafia can kill each other. If the mafia member chosen to kill on a particular night is roleblocked, no kill will occur. The roleblocker can roleblock somebody and perform the nightkill in the same night, should you choose to do so.
You specifically mention "flying under the radar" as a good mafia trait to perfect. Your filter is 1.5 pages; and many confirmed townies have questioned your post integrity. Anyone would think that low post count, and low quality count is equivalent to flying under the radar... a trait you mention is mafia aligned.
I think we don't agree on the meaning of the phrase "flying under the radar". To me it means to go unnoticed, that is to say, acting so that no suspicions of you arise. To you it seems to mean not posting. If my intention was not to rise suspicions, I would have acted, since almost everyone in this game had the policy of "lynch all lurkers" or at least "suspect all lurkers".
On January 04 2013 17:19 jampidampi wrote: After examing StriX filter, he feels scummy.
On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote: 2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions. As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
Targetting the easiest player to target: a lyrker with no contrinutions.
In his last post he defends his vote on TeMiL with some previous game he played.
Overall, he has no contributions to speak of and some of his plays are scummy. ##Vote StriX
You promised before that it is acceptable to lynch a lurker if there is no better scum read. StriX does not have a scum read, so votes a lurker.. You call him out for this? Is that not odd?
While it is acceptable to lynch a lurker if you have no scumread, that should done as close to the deadline as possible. While you may not have a scumread on anyone, someone else may have. In the orginal post where I state my stance on lurkers I say
Lurkers contribute nothing to town, so if we don't get a scumread, I think lynching a lurker is fine D1.
We as in all of us. Not just one.
I happened to notice that StriX voted TeMiL.... a confirmed MAFIA.. do you not find it odd that when Strix votes a mafia player.. you retaliate by voting Strix?
Three other players voted on StriX, not just me. If my suspicions of StriX would be just him voting for TeMiL, why would others have voted for him?
On January 05 2013 19:12 jampidampi wrote: I will try to gather here the big events of D1 leading to the misslynch of StriX.
38. TeMiL comes out of nowhere and votes me. @Spaghetticus ...
@Mocsta ...
@zarepath ...
What is odd is that you acknowledge TeMiL votes for you (out of nowhere)... yet the 3 people you choose to question further are Spag, Mocsta and zarepath (all confirmed town).
The rest of your filter does not question TeMiL...is it not odd that you accept this vote, and do not challenge it?
Others had already questioned TeMiL enough for me. I could see that he was not responding to anything, so why ask if I wouldn't get an answear? Instead I chose to question the ones that were at that point the most suspicious to me, Spag for his big posts that were on policies and acting in way that would allow him to jump on any bandwagon on almost anyone, zare for jumping on bandwagons and not giving the analysis promised, you for being sure that StriX would flip town.
On January 05 2013 02:29 jampidampi wrote: @Sylencia ... You overlook the fact that I voted for him because he has no actions that have only town motives behind them.
On January 08 2013 05:42 jampidampi wrote: ...(Accusation) They help Mocsta establish a protown image while making others appear as more suspicious.
So you admit I am establishing a town image, and by being protown implies only town motives.. yet you make a case on me?
A protown image is when you are trying to appear as useful to town. A protown player is useful to the town agenda. What I was perhaps too confusingly saying is that you were making plays that appear protown, but actually are not, since your accusations were all over the place and were not concentrated to help you pressure your top scumread. Maybe establish wasn't the right word. And yes I'm stating that my english isn't on par with you native speakers.
Between your summary post, and the case on me. The only content you discussed pertained to setups. You did not actively scum hunt, and contribute in the on going discussion.
The time that elapsed between your summary post and the case on me was approximately 30 hrs. I understand you want all your posts to be meaningful; but that is not an acceptable time span between meaningful contributions.
If anything, it looks like "flying under the radar" a trait you described earlier in question (a) as a scum tendency.
I was hoping that my speculation would have given an in-between-the-lines meaning of "I'm accusing Omni of faking the claim and thus being scum", which would then have prompted you to defend or attack him. Sadly this was not case, maybe I should have just openly stated the hidden meaning. Remember, at that time I though you were scum and you were not answearing my question.
From jampidampi: Regarding the QT question: If he was scum, he would have gotten the QT link with his role PM. Would anyone ask something they already know of? Or was it a way to get his scumbuddy to come to the QT? It is all just speculation, but I hope everyone here would have the brains to check out the QT from their PM. Leaning towards town
Something in that bolded area seems off to me. @Jampi could you clarify when you say everybody should check the QT link they get in their PM?
The OP provided the role PMs for each role. In the scum role PMs there is a direct link to the scum QT...
Your response was pretty standard answer to a question that any alignment could respond with.
Considering all the questions I have regarding you above.. the behaviour patterns are looking scummy.
Of course, I offered that olive branch, so in being open minded:
Combining all the information I am now aware of, OmniEulogy question to you, appears as a genuine scum slip (on your behalf).
I don't quite understand what the accused slip is here? If you are talking about the one Omni asked about, I already answeared that to him, and you even quoted that post, so why are you asking again? If you are talking about something else, I don't understand it from your phrasing.
Thanks to Dandel Ion, I feel very confident in confirming Mocsta as town. It's possible that he was the RBer but WASN'T the one to kill Omni, but that would be impossible because TeMiL was replaced and then NOT replaced.
Zare, do you have any questions to me? I am online right now, but will be gone after about 2 hours. It would benefit you to have your questions answeared immediately so that you have as much time as possible to decide between me and Syl.
@Zare: By process of elimination: I know I'm town. Spag claimed to have checked you and said you were town, when Spag flipped cop you became confirmed town. Omni claimed to block Mocsta last night so that a kill by Mocsta would not have gone through. So when Omni flipped JK, Mocsta became confirmed town. The only one left is Sylencia, so he must be mafia.
@Syl: I didn't feel a need to pressure TeMiL. Allmost everyone was already doing that at allmost every point it was relevant. I did not considers lynching TeMiL an option if I could lynch my top scumread instead.
As to why would TeMiL vote for the same target as you: Due to the logic you stated, TeMiL flipping scum is a way to reduce your suspicions. I actually believe that from the start, your idea was to use TeMiL only as a way to make you seem less scummy. That is why you were not afraid to lynch him during D2. You realised that TeMiL would not be able to play as well as you do and you made him your endgame gambit.
Voting on TeMiL Totally putting his gambit into effect
Voting on Omni Totally trying to lynch the player he though was blue. Evidence: since we have a cop and a JK, there is a scum RB. TeMiL was a goon. Omni got RB N1.
Voting on me Totally realising that town won't lynch Omni
Notice how Syl never pressures his scumread, at all. All he does is make a case on someone, then forgets about it. He doesn't even pressure them before making the case. His votes come and go with impulsive traits. It seems that it doesn't matter to him who is lynched. This is even seen in his reasoning on staying on me D1.
On January 05 2013 10:47 Sylencia wrote: Actually zere, my voting of either does not change anything, other than possibly Temil seeing only 2 targets on the board and darting one of them, which come to think of it, might've happened.
If I voted Strix, same result. If I voted OE, same result. If I had voted OE, there would be a very low chance of any votes shifting as well. Why? Most people already stated why they voted for one or the other. If Strix was scum, there would be wagoning over to the other side, but he was not, so the result would have ended up the same in either case.
A townies most powerful (and only) weapon is his vote, so why is Syl not using his vote as effetively as possible? Because he doesn't care who gets lynched, since he knows it will probably not be the ones he would like to have lynched.
And interestingly, on D2 Syl switching his vote does not change the situation at all (Spag already had 3 votes on him). Why is he switching D2, not mention close to the deadline, in a similar situation in which he did not switch D1? Even though his time it was his scumread (me) versus someone he has not been suspicious of since D1 (spag)? He says nothing to point that he is suspicious of Spag, yet Syl wants to lynch Spag instead of lynching his top scum read. Syl has had his suspicions of me since D1, yet instead of making his stance on me clear, he switches to Spag.
That is it for today, will inspect Syl more closely tomorrow.
jampi, I'm less interested in the fact you supposedly think Syl is scum simply because you are NOT, and more interested in how you would persuade me and Mocsta that Syl is scum.
I find it more likely that you helped push a StriX lynch along when Mocsta asked you to look at him, and TeMiL voted for you when it was clear you wouldn't be lynched and you could create distance between yourselves. It is the only conceivable reason I can think of for TeMiL randomly voting for you in that way (although I could think of no conceivable reason that he needed us to tell him what countries we were from, either.)
As has been said, you've never even mentioned TeMiL, most of your posts are summaries or weak defenses for your non participation, and reading Syl's filter, I just don't see the case for him being mafia.
If you can go through his filter and give me a compelling read as to how he is scum, I will switch my vote. But until then, I am voting for you.
##Vote: jampidampi
Note that because you've reached 2 votes before Syl will, even if Mocsta thinks that Syl is mafia, you will still be lynched. You have to persuade me that Syl is mafia, not that you are not mafia, or else you will be lynched.
EBWOP: Didn't see your analysis until after I posted that. I'll look over it, but I think it would benefit you to come up with more rigorous and specific argumentation.
Thank you for answering the questions addressed to you in a timely manner.
I found your contributions to those questions significantly more meaningful than the rest of your filter from prior. Thus, I can see your recognise the importance of this choice.
zarepath is correct; we don't care why *YOU* think Sylencia is scum.
We care about *HOW*/*WHY* you will persuade us he is scum.
Your quote is not doing much for your prognosis.
On January 10 2013 02:37 jampidampi wrote: Notice how Syl never pressures his scumread, at all. All he does is make a case on someone, then forgets about it.
He doesn't even pressure them before making the case. His votes come and go with impulsive traits. It seems that it doesn't matter to him who is lynched.
This is even seen in his reasoning on staying on me D1.
I am going to have to 100% outright disagree on this jampidampi.
On January 05 2013 01:44 Sylencia wrote: My vote before I go to bed will be currently going to jampi. I'll be back before the deadline, so jampi, if you have a defense, feel free to post it.
On January 03 2013 22:46 jampidampi wrote: As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
This is the reason you have given us for a lack of posts. It's one of your first posts, so it's actually more of a pre-emptive explanation of why you would be lurking. You have answered the questions presented, but you do not give us your insight unless asked. This gives me the impression you have to formulate thoughts before giving the answer. If you are a townie, there needs to be more spontaneous input when you observe something that strikes you as being off.
You posted some of your town reads, but a lot of it was based on some meta-reads and the logic behind them was still a little flawed. (The reason why the QT was brought up as a potential scum play was because it feigns ignorance, not sure if this was explained.) (Mentioning your scum play from last game doesn't make you more town, it can also be used to distance yourself from your previous game, and thus give the illusion of playing more town)
After that, you start to zero in on Strix. Your suspicion only came to light once Mocsta had come and asked you about Strix. This strikes me as suspicious, because it really comes out of nowhere. This is why I would say if you were town, you would bring it up when you saw fit to. Ask questions about it earlier. Instead, there's a sudden accusation followed by a few points made about his posts.
In one of your points, you mention how he targets the biggest lurker we have in the group, even though he said in his policy statement he wants to LAL. If anything, that only reinforces the fact he was, at the time since he did end up retracting the vote, following what he said.
Your second last statement essentially says 'what I stated against you could be town or could be scum', essentially being on the fence about whether or not he is scum. If he flips, you have some insurance if he is town by saying 'looks like it was town motivated.'
Basically, your posts give the impression you're on the fence about whether he is scum or not, you say he is contributing nothing, but you do not provide cases for anyone else and choose to tunnel on Strix.
On January 05 2013 03:08 jampidampi wrote: My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now.
If he has such a weak case, why couldn't he have strengthened it any more by asking more questions, as he said he would in his first few posts. Instead, all that we get are answers to questions and accusations. It's not exactly good enough to say you have little to no information to go off, and leave it be and vote. It's slack, and it's scummy because it shows you don't care about the consequences of tunneling a player...
On January 06 2013 09:24 OmniEulogy wrote: gg Cora. I was role blocked.
This is curious. Why would OmniEulogy be roleblocked? A jailkeeper would target someone he believes will be killed. Scum had no motivation to kill Omni, because he was the other suspicious player D1 and thus would be pressured at least N1, if not D2 potentially leading to another misslynch. Many pointed that if StriX flips town (which he did), Omni would be very suspicious. A jailkeeper could also potentially target a scumread in hopes that a) he is scum and b) he carries out the nightkill. Even if he was 100% sure that Omni was scum, that would still only lead to 50/50 chance of blocking the kill. Thus I don't this is likely. A scum roleblocker would target Omni if he thought he had a blue role. A scum roleblocker might target Omni in hopes that he claims and someone suspects this claim.
@All Should townies always claim being roleblocked in this setup? Do you think the scum roleblocker would target Omni? Or do think he faked the claim? Or do you have any better reasoning for a jailkeeper to target Omni?
This is attempted analysis, but it doesn't say anything at all. Doesn't state if he thinks it's a RB or JK, it's just statements which could have been drawn pretty easily by anyone.
The case on Mocsta is the only other big post on day 2, it's not really a solid case either. It honestly rates about the same level as Strix's case he posted which I said was weak on Day 1 as well.
2) How would the mafia try to get us to mislynch a townie?
By not being suspicious. If they are careful and appear as townies, we don't have a way of identifying them as scum. Just flying under the radar while townies aggressively blame eachother leading to a misslynch is a perfect mafia D1.
Jampi, you're flying under the radar more than pretty much anyone here. Are you following your own advice or are you just playing badly?
When we are making a critical decision to bandwagon jampidampi on Day2.. Sylencia is the person who decides to think rationally and ensure we clear OmniEulogy first, by questioning him... thus as a continuation of "3rd pressure on jampidampi" we get a vote on OmniEulogy as follows: + Show Spoiler [Pressure vote on OmniEulogy to ensure…] +
On January 08 2013 01:03 Sylencia wrote: Omni:
...
--
Basically, jampi still looks suspicious as hell, no real contribution, trying to fly under the radar in Day 2 - still giving no real clues to his being town (if he is at all), but the last few posts Omni have made while what seems to be half-asleep really makes me wonder if he just slipped up.
Lesson learned from NMM33: People make slips. If you ignore them, you could lose the game from it.
##Vote OmniEulogy
As an aside, I have noticed in your evidence for Sylencia to be scum, and your evidence for Mocsta to be scum that you attempted to twist facts into your argument.
Very strong confirmation bias.
That you can call Sylencia impulsive is ridiculous.
Him and cDgCorazon were the two players that have been the most meticulous in questioning everyone.
OmniEulogy and myself are the impulsive two....How you can not see this is mind boggling.
THAT you can't see Sylencia pressures people is mind boggling. I have pointed out 3 situations he has pressured YOU.. there are also others he has pressured.
This confirmation bias is too strong.
You are not helping your cause... but it has only been 24 hrs out of 48hrs.
I believe in fairness; so I am going to give you one more chance to address the above AND
convince zarepath and myself that you are town. P.S. if you pass this test, question time on Sylencia will start.
You have 8 hrs to respond, other you receive my vote
MocstaI happened to notice that StriX voted TeMiL.... a confirmed MAFIA.. do you not find it odd that when Strix votes a mafia player.. you retaliate by voting Strix?
Three other players voted on StriX, not just me. If my suspicions of StriX would be just him voting for TeMiL, why would others have voted for him?
[INDEnt] If we include context from Day 1, the previous 2 candidates were StriX and jampidampi.
Sylencia stayed on you, you stayed on Strix...
Omni made a case on Strix, cDgCorazon agreed. Spag moved as well...
Taking this all in... it makes NO SENSE for two mafia to be voting jampidampi.. Sylencia was not a prime candidate, thus, there was no requirement for two votes to start a bandwagon.
Further, it would be typical for mafia to distance their votes, again exemplified by your vote on Strix, and TeMiL on Sylencia.
Please explain
TL;DR On further Vote Count Analysis of Day 1 "it makes NO SENSE for two mafia to be voting jampidampi".
Mocsta wrote: What is odd is that you acknowledge TeMiL votes for you (out of nowhere)... yet the 3 people you choose to question further are Spag, Mocsta and zarepath (all confirmed town).
The rest of your filter does not question TeMiL...is it not odd that you accept this vote, and do not challenge it?
Others had already questioned TeMiL enough for me. I could see that he was not responding to anything, so why ask if I wouldn't get an answear? Instead I chose to question the ones that were at that point the most suspicious to me, Spag for his big posts that were on policies and acting in way that would allow him to jump on any bandwagon on almost anyone, zare for jumping on bandwagons and not giving the analysis promised, you for being sure that StriX would flip town.
Bizarre... you say you DID NOT question TeMiL because noone was responding?
Let me point you to your own quotes...
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
Follow up
On January 07 2013 04:49 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta
On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum?
(1) I honestly don't know. Most of today has been me defending myself (an absolute waste of thread space), so I haven't been able to keep up to date with thread status quo.
I think you have had enough time to think of this. So I ask again, do you still Omni is scum? If not what in his paly changed your opinion?
2nd follow up
On January 08 2013 23:58 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta: Now that I have answeared all the question, it is your turn. Answear me. You claim that my case for you is weak, if this is true, then go ahead and rip it apart. I bet you cannot actually do that.
So I wasn't responding to you.. but you could request me 3 times to contact you.
For TeMiL.. you could not respond once...
Please Explain.
TL;DR jampidampi does not follow up on TeMiL because he was "not responding to anything" YET. jampidampi follows up multiple times on myself, but I was "not responding" either.
(2) Your situation and TeMiLs were different. TeMiL wasn't answearing at all. Others questioned him. You answeared others, but not my quetions. Many questioned TeMiL about his vote, few questioned you.
(1) It is Syl realising from the start that TeMiL would almost no use to him, so he makes TeMiL his gambit, and I have to say it is an effective one so far.
As for the Syls pressure thing, I see the first post as just reasonings for the vote, the second for explaining his vote, and the third as way to ensure his switch on to me would not look scummy when Omni isn't going to get bandwagoned.
No time for anything else, have to leave for school TT
On January 10 2013 15:59 jampidampi wrote: (2) Your situation and TeMiLs were different. TeMiL wasn't answearing at all. Others questioned him. You answeared others, but not my quetions. Many questioned TeMiL about his vote, few questioned you.
I have serious issues with this comment.
Many people questioned his vote... Well guess what.. i just did a thread search of "all" pages, and "TeMiL".. Received about 560 hits.
There is only 1 question posted to TeMiL after Day 1.
On January 05 2013 10:38 OmniEulogy wrote: @TeMiL Give us your thoughts on what happened during the first Day. What do you think about who got lynched? Why did you vote for Jampi? Who are your top scum reads? Why do you not post often? What do you think about the cases that have been made on people?
I'd like these answers before the end of N1. You've had more than enough time and clearly you read the thread and know when things are happening.
On January 05 2013 13:04 OmniEulogy wrote: I should add that I'm not targeting TeMiL as a scum suspect. I asked him those questions to get him to contribute. I believe trying to figure out what he is atm is useless. Maybe after he answers those questions we'll be able to have some sort of read but I'm not getting my hopes up. Just Keep thinking what you will though.
Your going to have to do better than this jampidampi. Please address the outstanding questions. I know you know where they are
On January 07 2013 15:16 Spaghetticus wrote: ... Syl and Mocsta are now being read because I know that they are both capable of gaining town status as scum. ... Syl sits on the line of activity that I would call 'optimal scum activity'. He is not a lurker, and he has not need to lie or mislead town. Town has mislead themselves, so his near riskless play puts him in a perfect survival state where all he has to do is post analytic truths and town will detonate on their own. ...
On January 07 2013 15:16 Spaghetticus wrote: ... Syl and Mocsta are now being read because I know that they are both capable of gaining town status as scum. ... Syl sits on the line of activity that I would call 'optimal scum activity'. He is not a lurker, and he has not need to lie or mislead town. Town has mislead themselves, so his near riskless play puts him in a perfect survival state where all he has to do is post analytic truths and town will detonate on their own. ...
Spaghetticus raises valid points.
Please address these.
The part which you have quoted is rather difficult to prove. It is a truth that I have not lied or mislead because that is not what you do to scumhunt. What I have done during this game are presented cases, voted on them and acted according to what I have felt was right.
While I would agree that my level of activity is 'optimal scum activity', it has been about the level I was able to raise it to comfortably, coming into the game with a lot of lurking in the previous 2 games. I had decided I wanted to step it up further this time and not be a lurker again because last game I said "it feels like I'm a ghost here". The reason mainly being because I had not been as involved in the game as others, so not only did the others have more influence, they also had more information because of what they questioned from others. Since I wanted to have more information to make more decisions this time around, I became more active but not to the extremely active side which you and Spag were at.
On January 05 2013 15:12 Spaghetticus wrote: Everything TeMiL has contributed has only served to clutter up the thread. I have not seen him post a single thing that I consider even vaguely relevant, and so expect his future posts to be the same.
I hold nothing against TeMiL, he is in over his head. Once he has a better mastery of the language I think Mafia would be a great game for him to play. Until that day, he will only confuse threads and weaken town. I am not interested in anything he has to say, as, unlike a more typical lurker, I believe he does not actually possess the capacity to meaningfully contribute, thus, I do not encourage him to contribute.
Ah, fuck it. Since there appears to be nothing I can do to make you realise that I'm town and Syl is scum, I give up. GG Syl, very well played. I applaud you for your scumplay. It was too good for anyone of us to notice. I will not come back since that would be a waste on time on my part. Mocsta and zare: Go ahead and lynch me and lose. Or lynch Sylencia and win. I get the though that you would rather lose to good play than lose to bad play. I'm out. Perhaps we meet again in another game, where hopefully I will have learned from this game.
I believe this is the hammer vote... i.e. the only way Sylencia can be voted is with 4 votes, which is essentialyl impossible (Sylencia wouldnt vote to lynch himself)
seriously... Whilst I thought Spag decision to cop you was odd.. now.. it was a saviour... if you were not confirmed.. due to your activity over Night 2/Day3, I would probably push for your lynch; or at a minimum severely pressure you.
ENDGAME "Ve vil not go down wizout ä fight!" - Famous Last Words Compilation, #243
"Ladies and ladies", the dedicated ladies-man zarepath proclaimed. "TONIGHT IS THE NIGHT OF JUSTICE! Rivers will flood with the blood of our foes, and I shall fornicate with 20 different women during the next week! And I'll only need to pay about half of them! Life is good when you're confirmed town. Hedonism any day, you Nil suckers!"
"My people", Mocsta the judgemental judge, continued the fervent speech. "There can only be a single judgement, on one of these two suspects. Both of them charged with murder of the highest degree, but unfortunately, thanks to random circumstancial evidence I can only condemn one of them to death. Sylencia paid me more, so clearly, jampidampi is the root of all evil! Justice and Materialism, the combination that oils the hinges of the door we call modern society!"
Sylencia, the Silent, took the decision in quiet grace and did not utter a word.
jampidampi was outraged. "HOW CAN YOU DO THIS? YOU CANNOT PROVE MY GUILTINESS! I HAVE DONE NOTHING!"
"AHA", Mocsta interjected, "you said Nothing!"
"But that doesn't mea-" "SILENT, YOU INSOLENT FOOL! TODAY YOU DIE, FOR THE NOTHING YOU DID UPON OUR PEOPLE" "wat are y-"
stands victorious, free to spread his teachings of Anarchy, Complacency, and the Emptiness of Existance! TeMiL, his old friend the Goon, will be remembered for his deeds towards the greater cause and also wins the game!
Town loses! Mafia wins!
GG and thank you for choosing a Dandy Dan game. Always remember that you live to learn. Embrace this experience and grow from it, that is the true spirit of Substantialism (also of YOLO, but that's a story for another day). You'll show those Nihilists in the long run!
Edit: And sorry for not being as active as a coach as I should have been. Was kind of troublesome reading 3 games at once while reading up on a 4th one... my bad.
GG everyone, game was pretty hard and it seems the obs were on to me too quickly
Some of the things which people were questioning during the game:
My roleblocking choices were chosen to make it look more like a JK rather than a RB (following Spag's advice from N1). The idea was that I would roleblock the kill N2 and then claim it D3, but then everything kind of went too fast because Temil went afk.
After Spag got revealed as cop I had to kill OE off since there wasn't a second RB claim he had to be JK.
In retrospect I wish I kept the Roleblock on Spag because it would've made my D/N2 plans a lot clearer in a sense, but who knows
My attempted bussing of Temil happened at the end of D1 because I realised he wasn't looking at the scum QT at all, and I got awfully nervous when he voted the same person I did.
I just think you need to stop having ridiculous amounts of confirmation bias Moc. It hurt the town so much this game. If you would have lynched Jampi D2 instead of Spag, it would've been a lot easier to point out Syl, and Spag could have done a better job of arguing his innocence.
On January 11 2013 12:37 cDgCorazon wrote: I just think you need to stop having ridiculous amounts of confirmation bias Moc. It hurt the town so much this game. If you would have lynched Jampi D2 instead of Spag, it would've been a lot easier to point out Syl, and Spag could have done a better job of arguing his innocence.
Im not going to say anything more to this than the below. I think you are being unreasonable in your statement.
I don't disagree with the confirmation bias. The obs qt clearly indicates what they thought; some of it was disapointing to read, but honesty is appreciated none-the-less. Its a shame, because it was a goal of mine to reduce the tunneling; obviously I failed.
I will contest the overall statement however. I think from where you are sitting, its very easy to point a finger to suggest one point of blame; instead I would think that in general there was a severe lack of critical thinking.
*note with the following, I am not saying my cases are good*.. I would also suggest that: if all of my cases/reads were so poor, then why did others bandwagon with me. You say I led the town astray, perhaps I did.. but why was no one critically questioning the cases/reads I gave?
I think the blame is to be distributed to the many participants of town; not just myself.
Im not taking anything away from Sylencia.. until his last post, i thought he was set town. Hence, to me, he did an excellent job, even though everyone in the QT is obviously a vet and picked up on him straight away. If you read the mafia QT, he was pretty much flying solo, and even more amazing effort on his behalf.
FYI, though Sylencia last post made me reconsider everything; I did not bother anymore to push him, because zarepath voted and jampidampi rage quitted.. what would the point be. I wrote the hammer vote thing because, with 3 votes. you need 4 to overtake which was impossible; and if i voted no-lynch, jampidampi was still on the table. lose/lose situation.
moc, don't take the QT too personal. We're not playing the game so it's quite different in game than calling scum from QT.
About the hammer vote thing, you and zare could have switched to sylencia and lynched him instead. You don't need to get 4 votes just to override the previous 3. Sylencia just needs more votes than jampi at lynch count, doesn't matter how many either have had in the past except to decide who gets lynched in a tie. For example, in the case where jampi gets the 2 votes from sylencia and zare, it wouldn't matter if you voted sylencia in that case because jampi had 2 first, unless zare switched as well, in which case 3 on sylencia lynches him over 1 on jampi.
I think the main thing you should work on in the future, besides confirmation bias issues, is creating a more comfortable town environment. People should feel open to giving their thoughts, not scared that they're going to anger you more (scum are automatically scared without you doing anything). If you're "confirmed town" (which everyone believed you to be at the end), no need to be a bully and try to call the shots, just keep playing and searching for scum. Perhaps if jampi thought he had a chance at convincing you of his innocence, maybe he tries a bit harder near the end?
Big shout out to all the townies in this game, almost everyone came to me for coaching and it was clear that they were working on improving their play during the game. I had a lot of fun with you all and I hope I was at least somewhat helpful.
If anyone wants to talk to me about their play feel free to pm me.
On January 11 2013 10:35 Sylencia wrote: GG everyone, game was pretty hard and it seems the obs were on to me too quickly
GG Syl. Appearances may be deceiving though, from my perspective we were blundering about in obs with not much of a clue for a lot of the game.
My attempted bussing of Temil happened at the end of D1 because I realised he wasn't looking at the scum QT at all, and I got awfully nervous when he voted the same person I did.
That was a really good play, had me fooled until well into day 3. I thought you and Temil were marginally the most likely scum, but then I thought about the two of you as a scumteam and went "nahhh".
I kind of feel like we had a very sheep-prone town. Everyone kind of let you (Mocsta) have the floor and control things because you had set the tempo early. I feel like this did not help, because no one ever thought to bring the other side of things into the argument.
StriX, Spag, and Jampi both acted too scummy to not be lynched. I agree with those lynches. It would've helped us immensely if they had been more town-oriented (maybe they didn't want to be NK'd?).
It really seemed like only one person was driving the town forward, which is dangerous because having only one opinion and everyone else jumping on board because that person looks good at the game is dangerous for the town. I know it sounded like I was being an asshole, but I was just trying to be pragmatic and keep all of my options open and think for myself.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to take anything away from Syl. He played a very good game flying just enough on the radar. I think town lost because of lack of opposing viewpoints among townies, townies acting really suspicious (StriX's filter, Spag backtracking on Jampi five times, and Jampi making really silly cases against Moc), and Syl playing really well.
I don't agree that Jampi's cases on Mocsta were silly. I haven't read the case in full detail, but Mocsta's actual contributions to scumhunting were smallish in proportion to the volume of his posts. Personally I was not convinced a huge amount by Jampi's case. The reasoning wasn't bad, but mitigating circumstances (sheer volume of posts is unlikely from newbie scum, Mocsta's meta) made Mocsta scum unlikely. However, it was very much a case made by a townie. If nothing else, a hypothetical scum Jampi would (IMO) make a case on someone who was a) an easier target and b) less likely to OMGUS him into oblivion.
Cases do not have to be correct to be made by a townie. In fact, cases don't have to be correct to make their creator look town-y.
Hell, a case doesn't even have to be good. It just has to be a case made by a townie. Which is not to say that all cases made by townies are obviously so.
On January 11 2013 16:00 cDgCorazon wrote: I know it sounded like I was being an asshole, but I was just trying to be pragmatic and keep all of my options open and think for myself.
I don't think you were ever an asshole in the game. I thought you were the key.
To refresh your memory this was from my Night 1 post, I thought I was 50/50 with your for the NK.
On January 06 2013 01:07 Mocsta wrote: cDgCorazon Overall I like the way you are playing, and its good you called me out. That was a completely sound play.
The only thing I will say to you regarding the above is.. Towards the end, I think you were blinded by my actions and begun to tunnel me.
Because I think you are a critical component of this game, I tried my best to answer your questions with respect (but I REALLY wanted to just tell you to fuck off).
I am telling you this because for Day2, town REALLY will need your pragmatic approach to continue.
On January 11 2013 16:46 Mocsta wrote: As an aside. Regardless of whether my reads are.right or wrong. the heuristic to assume newbie scum are inactive is weak.
True. But the most proactive player(s) in a newbie, the ones leading the town for better or worse, are often gonna be town. In my (limited) experience newbie scum range from completely inactive to fairly active, but they're generally not masterminding the town.
I imagine once one starts playing with the veterans all bets are off though ^^
Aqua, though it is unusual I've seen newbie scum direct town (I wan newbie scum who owned town). Kush/JSL/Dibbers did it once. It is rare but don't make that a heuristic.
On January 11 2013 16:46 Mocsta wrote: As an aside. Regardless of whether my reads are.right or wrong. the heuristic to assume newbie scum are inactive is weak.
True. But the most proactive player(s) in a newbie, the ones leading the town for better or worse, are often gonna be town. In my (limited) experience newbie scum range from completely inactive to fairly active, but they're generally not masterminding the town.
I imagine once one starts playing with the veterans all bets are off though ^^
Aquanim is right. Spaghetticus shouldn't have been lynched mainly for his overwhelming inactivity.
I was all over the place with my reads in obsQT, thinking at first it was omni/jampi, and having to move on from there...
Spaghetticus' post on Temil's use of english was an excellent post. Did any of you go and look at what he presented? I did. Temil used complete, non-broken (if brief) english in several posts in other parts of the forum. This immediately made me think he was scum.
As for the final day, I said it in obsQT - you need to spend a fair amount of time on the guy you DON'T think you're lynching. Sylencia was let completely off the hook by the obsession with jampi, he didn't have to do anything! jampi proceeded to make one of the best posts in the game regarding Sylencia's voting, to be greeted by stony silence or 'we need further analysis'.
Mocsta, I hope I don't come across too harshly in obsQT. I very much like people who think and try a lot, like you do. You just need to get rid of the clutter. And certain things like your attitude to jampi when you told him you wouldn't answer his questions, or answer his case, stuff like that, are completely counter-productive.
I spent a lot of time on both Syl and Mocsta, but after writing up lists upon lists of pros and cons there was no point in the game where I thought a case on either would both be a good move for town and result in a lynch.
A lot of stuff got ignored when it shouldn't have, I need to improve my filtering method, and stick to my cases/reads a little harder instead of posting a little bit on everyone.
In retrospect, when I found out TeMiL was scum I should have gone over Syl again, but hindsight 20/20 eh?
In regard to whether I should have been lynched: DP walked me through some reasoning and I agree with him that lynching an uncountered cop-claim seems bad. Mafia can't let a cop live, so they soak up the NK. If it's a false claim you will know with more certainty the next day to lynch them.
This, on top of my high level of activity probably should have dissuaded town. That being said, I woulda lynched me... so I don't blame anyone for it.
What Marv said about the final day x100. Gonna paraphrase the obs qt regarding the mylo. It's really easy to assume the onus is on your scumread to prove the other guy is scum/he's town but remember it is your job to find scum, not wait for your read to do something.
Moc look over what you were saying made both Zare and Jampi scummy the last day. You thought Jampi was scummy for making cases on townies but syl's cases were all on confirmed town/jampi (except saying lynching temil makes mathematical sense which is just logic, not indicative at alignment at all without meta), just like Jampi.
You said that both Jampi and Zares inactivity is scummy but look at Syl. He has two posts from the nk to endgame of any value. He was happy to sit back and lurk while the town killed itself.
It's really hard to see this in a lylo/mylo situation but you were so sure that Jampi was scum you gave a free pass to Syl because nothing Jampi said was going to convince you and all Syl had to do was avoid being scummy and answer any softball questions thrown at him. At least consider Jampis points and get answers to his voting habits.
1) Why not talk about coaches: This rule is for your own good. + Show Spoiler +
People get lynched for mentioning the town coach(es) and claiming town like that. If you look at the Spagh lynch, one of the points against him was how he did those posts about a town coach (I think it were the one where he pointed out that Prome took a while to respond, but not sure on that one). It might've seemed "okay" at the time, but once people think you're scum, they'll take ANYTHING to strenghten this read.
I also was a true scumbag and gave the scum QT the time when Prome went active in answering the PMs.
Second instance was when Omni wanted to talk about how the coach told him that 2 hours before DL is the best time to claim. Like... Again, the problems are not exactly the words, the problem is that he'll out himself as a blue, because what VT asks the coach when you're supposed to claim?
In all, I'd summarize this "rule" as such: You CAN talk about it, but the rule is there to make you think before you do it. Because more often than not, it backfires horribly. I remember when Cheesecake tried to use host PM timings to confirm townies as well a few newbies back (XXX or so), and promptly got mislynched because of it.
Apparantly, this is a real rule nowadays, so that part is incorrect on my end. Read the inside for a reasoning on the rule, then
2) Talking about modkills: Don't do it, this is an ACTUAL rule. Technically, even saying "we don't need to lynch X, he's getting modkilled anyways" is breaking a rule.
Spagh, when you threatened Temil with a modkill if he doesn't do what you say, it was not only against the rules, but also incredibly presumptious. Let me cite the OP:
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
When you said he's going to be modkilled, he had done nothing wrong yet. As long as he votes every day, he fullfills the activity requirements.
Don't talk about modaction.
3) Mocsta: STOP BREAKING RULES FFS Not every host is as incredibly lenient as I am. You could get modkilled for the first transgression, especially if it's not a newbie game. I have been amazingly patient with you, even though you PM'd Corazon about the game, AFTER I ALREADY WARNED YOU TO NOT PM PEOPLE and told you that you're supposed to wait until the postgame. Then you claimed town in the XXXV thread an estimated three times. The last time, when I came across a tad aggressive in the thread warning, I already had the modkill written down ready to boot you into the next century, but changed it to a "last warning" at the last second. You had me tempted.
I don't think any other host will give you that much room, especially not in non-newbies so READ THE FUCKING OP. Oh, and an advance warning, the host of XXXV is thrawn, who was also a cohost here. So you better not break too many rules there, he knows that you should know better by now. <3
On January 12 2013 00:16 Dandel Ion wrote: I don't think any other host will give you that much room, especially not in non-newbies so READ THE FUCKING OP. Oh, and an advance warning, the host of XXXV is thrawn, who was also a cohost here. So you better not break too many rules there, he knows that you should know better by now. <3
+1
if everyone fully reads the op everything will be fine, so do that
Oh and sorry about the modkill stuff. I really just presumed that was what happened, and didn't realise it was taboo to talk about. Are you allowed to give people your thoughts to help play around a potential modkill?
Oh and as I was rudely reminded in the host qt, my appreciation goes to thrawn (and even iamp) for co-hosting, as well as DP, Prome and Toadle for coaching.
On January 12 2013 00:16 Dandel Ion wrote: 3) Mocsta: STOP BREAKING RULES FFS Not every host is as incredibly lenient as I am. You could get modkilled for the first transgression, especially if it's not a newbie game. I have been amazingly patient with you, ....
Yes, you were very patient. I appreciate it, and have learnt my lessons.
Look, I'm not qualified to write a postgame, but since no-one else has done it I'll say a few words. Maybe this will inspire someone who knows what they're talking about to say something, if only to call me out for writing nonsense
(Note: Since I've never actually played as scum, I'm not going to talk about the mafia's play, and whatever I have to say in general is probably rubbish too)
Day One
My impression of day one was that town suffered from a lack of direction. None of the townies really managed to persuade enough of the others to align on a single wagon for most of the day, which meant that no-one got pressured much. Crucially, it also meant that Sylencia and Temil somehow both ended up on their own dead-end wagon, avoiding all blame for the day one lynch, without getting called out on it.
If scum aren't forced to commit to anything then it becomes much, much harder to catch them. In fact, I think this is the answer to the question that keeps getting batted around at the start of newbies: what makes a good day one for town? In my view, a good day one is at least partially formed from a strong, logical wagon, where scum have to decide "Do I hop on this wagon or not"? If another good wagon forms, and scum have to decide whether to jump ship or stick on the first one, so much the better. If there are good wagons going, scum sitting on the sidelines will stick out like a sore thumb.
Regardless of how much lurkers are told to post, if they aren't given any space in which to make their own original arguments and to apply pressure of their own they're not going to say much. Watching what a player chooses to do on their own initiative is a very useful tactic. I'm not saying "don't pressure people who aren't posting", I'm saying "don't say everything there is to be said about the thread". There's only so much you can learn from their answers to questions.
Night One
NK on Corazon was solid. Corazon might not have been the most active town, but he was (IMO) the most focused. Scum RB on Omni was obviously inspired.
Day Two
Oh dear, the Spaghetticus lynch. The Jampi case wasn't good either, but the Spag lynch... oh man.
Previous to Spag's claim, Zarepath's case wasn't bad. Spaghetticus was indeed talking a lot but committing very little day one. This may be Spag's town style, but it's still easy for scum to hide behind and should still be called out. Calling someone out for bad logic is pretty dicey though... I've already seen town say a LOT of silly things in my two games. Hell, some of those things were said by me.
On January 07 2013 22:48 Spaghetticus wrote: For those reading, Mocsta just tried to misquote me on a past game. Instead of quoting me denouncing unconfident play, he quoted a guy called Chromatically denouncing MY unconfident play. He tried to sell you evidence of me adhering to my accepted meta as reasons why I am not.
The number of mistakes Mocsta is making is astonishing. Mocsta, if you do not slow down you are going to make a case for us. If you are town you need to think through your posts. If you are a lying town then you are doing it badly. I have no idea how you could misquote me like that by accident, even with the standard errata at the top telling us that it was written by me. If you want absolute proof that my version of events is correct go HERE and search "Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty." You will find that Mocsta has somehow got mixed up, and accidentally made a forgery of a quote by Chromatically . He even had the gall to gloat at my incompetence.
But this does not make sense. Unless a scum Mocsta genuinely thought scum were losing at this point, why would he take the risk of forging a quote? My head is melting... I need some time to think...
I know how tempting it is to lynch a blue claim; I wanted to lynch doctor Oats in XXXI, and that would have been a really, really bad move. Even so, unless they've been counterclaimed or they physically cannot be what they claim to be, you really shouldn't lynch them.
The only slightly good reason to doubt the cop claim was that there was only one roleblock claim - if there's a cop, then there are either zero or two players capable of roleblocking. However, there's obviously more than one way for there to be only one roleblock. Why would scum Spaghetticus claim cop if he knew it could be disproved?
So.. on the first night, if I was such a scare to you.. why would you check zarepath out of all people.. God cop play would have been to check me, if you thought I was leading the discussions. and from your post history, it suggests you did think i was leading the discussoin.
Three things to say about this:
Zarepath was a pretty good cop check. Unlikely to be lynched soon otherwise, but plausible scum
Why do you assume Spag would play cop well? (he did but that's beside the point)
If Zare was such a bad cop check, why would scum Spaghetticus claim that was what he'd done?
Checking Mocsta would be a bad play because I both expected him to die, and because he was expected to run himself into the ground if he was scum
This.
On January 08 2013 08:29 OmniEulogy wrote: wait you're right Mocsta. He kept saying Zare was one of the three people he suspected...
##Unvote ##Vote: Spaghetticus
That's enough to make me believe he's fake claiming. I'll keep going through to find all of it and post it for you.
Spaghetticus saying that he still suspected Zarepath after he checked him is a little odd, but hardly a scumslip. If he'd suddenly flipped his read on Zarepath it would have looked really weird. Again, why would scum Spaghetticus claim he'd checked Zarepath if he'd known it would make him look inconsistent?
Night Two
I'm still not sure I understand why both RB-ing and NK-ing Omni was a good idea, but apparently it was. I wouldn't mind being enlightened on this point.
Day Three
Marvellosity pretty much said it all here:
As for the final day, I said it in obsQT - you need to spend a fair amount of time on the guy you DON'T think you're lynching. Sylencia was let completely off the hook by the obsession with jampi, he didn't have to do anything! jampi proceeded to make one of the best posts in the game regarding Sylencia's voting, to be greeted by stony silence or 'we need further analysis'.
I'll quote something I said in obs, if you haven't read it:
Which of these situations is more likely with regard to day 1 lynch:
1) (Syl scum, Jampi town) Temil wanders into thread and thinks "Well, obviously I should vote with my buddy because that's who Syl wants lynched"
2) (Syl town, Jampi scum) Temil wanders into thread and thinks "Hey, I'll vote for my scumbuddy! lololol"
Scum typically don't sheep their buddies... but then again scum don't typically bus with no reason either. This was a choice between two unlikely possibilities, but given Temil's approach to the game I thought the first was pretty clearly indicated. Also, I thought Jampidampi had a great deal more conviction and belief in what he said all game, despite his lower activity early on.
I'd prefer not to jump the gun on whatever Prom has to say about the questions he raised in the obs QT regarding the evidence for making reads on Jampi and Syl. (Though I might be able to guess what he'll say.)
As for individual comments, since a lot of you are more experienced than me I'll pass
Unfortunately, this has just turned into a rant about the last two lynches >.> Can someone come and write a proper postgame?
Thanks for the analysis! Yes, lynching a cop claimer without a counterclaim was pretty sloppy. And I was pretty lazy on the final day as far as my analysis went.
you both roleblock and kill the JK, because then he can't roleblock your shot ("on accident") The blocker blocks, the goon shoots, and it's a sure kill.
Plus you could even fakeclaim being roleblocked.
€: not to mention, the cop was already lynched, so no danger, of anything blue happening
As I understood it, it was Sylencia (RB) who actually did the NK, not "Temil" the goon. If it was Temil then it all makes sense, thanks for the explanation. As you say there's no point in RBing anyone else (unless someone else is JK and blocked Omni night one, too)
For those reading, Mocsta just tried to misquote me on a past game. Instead of quoting me denouncing unconfident play, he quoted a guy called Chromatically denouncing MY unconfident play. He tried to sell you evidence of me adhering to my accepted meta as reasons why I am not.
The number of mistakes Mocsta is making is astonishing. Mocsta, if you do not slow down you are going to make a case for us. If you are town you need to think through your posts. If you are a lying town then you are doing it badly. I have no idea how you could misquote me like that by accident, even with the standard errata at the top telling us that it was written by me. If you want absolute proof that my version of events is correct go HERE and search "Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty." You will find that Mocsta has somehow got mixed up, and accidentally made a forgery of a quote by Chromatically . He even had the gall to gloat at my incompetence.
But this does not make sense. Unless a scum Mocsta genuinely thought scum were losing at this point, why would he take the risk of forging a quote? My head is melting... I need some time to think...
Is that quote by me illustrating a point I made that was nonsense, or illustrating that what Mocsta misquoted was nonsense? I have a feeling it's the former, but I would like to know for certain. If my post was the nonsense, what in particular about it is nonsensical to you?
Regarding the cop lynch, I understand I made some BIIIIIG fuckups. It wasn't the right call to lynch me, but at the time I actually agreed that I deserved to be lynched on merit of the faux pas count. Town didn't think the math through, but I completely understand just how confusing I was being with the name confusions etc.
But when that cop claim came out, i was on the bus and on the phone so didnt give it the thought it needed. In the end though, just because I say im voting you, doesnt mean everyone else has to sheep me.
For those reading, Mocsta just tried to misquote me on a past game. Instead of quoting me denouncing unconfident play, he quoted a guy called Chromatically denouncing MY unconfident play. He tried to sell you evidence of me adhering to my accepted meta as reasons why I am not.
The number of mistakes Mocsta is making is astonishing. Mocsta, if you do not slow down you are going to make a case for us. If you are town you need to think through your posts. If you are a lying town then you are doing it badly. I have no idea how you could misquote me like that by accident, even with the standard errata at the top telling us that it was written by me. If you want absolute proof that my version of events is correct go HERE and search "Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty." You will find that Mocsta has somehow got mixed up, and accidentally made a forgery of a quote by Chromatically . He even had the gall to gloat at my incompetence.
But this does not make sense. Unless a scum Mocsta genuinely thought scum were losing at this point, why would he take the risk of forging a quote? My head is melting... I need some time to think...
Is that quote by me illustrating a point I made that was nonsense, or illustrating that what Mocsta misquoted was nonsense? I have a feeling it's the former, but I would like to know for certain. If my post was the nonsense, what in particular about it is nonsensical to you?
Regarding the cop lynch, I understand I made some BIIIIIG fuckups. It wasn't the right call to lynch me, but at the time I actually agreed that I deserved to be lynched on merit of the faux pas count. Town didn't think the math through, but I completely understand just how confusing I was being with the name confusions etc.
I was trying to illustrate that townies (in this case Mocsta) make mistakes too. Your post was fine. (I didn't make that distinction clear at all, sorry.) In particular I was referencing your statement that "this makes no more sense from scum than from town".
On January 26 2013 14:42 Mocsta wrote: Dont worry aqua. Everyone knows u illustrate my mistakes as often as u can.
lol, my apologies, it is not deliberate I scanned the thread for silly towny stuff and that was the first good example I came across. The postgame kinda turned into poking some holes in your reads because you were driving everything and so there wasn't anything else to talk about
EPT![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLmafia_new.png)
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You may vote for a no-lynch by posting ##vote: no lynch in the thread.
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