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Corazon, thanks for taking the time to give me feedback. Much appreciated.
Been out all day, so able to look at this with a fresh perspective.
I have read through your comments: overall, I agree with a few points, and contest others.
Ultimately, we will never know why OmniEulogy posted what he did - only he will know. Thus, we can only make educated assumptions. I think your arguments against me are due to deviating interpretation of events, rather than flawed reasoning.
I have one further question I would like to direct:
@all My case on OmniEulogy is here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=21#414
Do you think my case on OmniEulogy was dredged with "confirmation bias" aka tunnel syndrome?
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Post Count Summary Intent: To identify participants "flying under the radar" and not actively contributing.
The intent is not to provide a quality check on posts
That onus falls upon all of town individually.
Session 4 From: 04-Jan: 2130 To: 05-Jan: 0930
+ Show Spoiler +- cDgCorazon: 32
(14 in session)
- Sylencia: 28
(9 in session)
- OmniEulogy: 30
(13 in session)
- Spaghetticus: 44
(24 in session)
- Mocsta: 33
(11 in session)
- zarepath: 21
(9 in session)
- TeMil: 9
(6 in session)
- jampidampi: 14
(9 in session)
- StriX: 24
(9 in session)
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On January 05 2013 10:32 zarepath wrote: Another thing to look at is the fact that as soon as Moc put up his analysis, the four following votes happened:
I switched from TeMiL to OE. Spag switched from TeMiL to StriX (after my vote) Sylencia did NOT switch to either OE or StriX; he was obviously paying attention to the thread (he kept posting), but felt no need to push the dial one way or the other even when a single vote for either of the two (StriX and OE) would have made a large difference. Instead he remained on a person who was almost assuredly not going to be lynched. TeMiL votes for jampidampi for no discernible reason.
Spag's vote is a direct declaration for StriX over OE or jampidampi, and does not hold at all to his LAL policy he's been harping about all day. I will have to check the filter (chaotic two hours and I was in and out), but I don't recall his explanation for that.
Sylencia and TeMiL's votes, however, are indirect assurances of StriX being guilty over OE without having to say as much. They didn't reiterate strong cases for jampidampi or try to argue anyone else into also voting for jampidampi.
I am bringing this back to attention.
Sylencia since you are here, what are your thoughts on the feedback zarepath has issued?
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On January 05 2013 19:12 jampidampi wrote:@Mocsta Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 09:35 Mocsta wrote: when he flips town, i would be looking carefully . VERY carefully @ jampidampi and OmniEulogy.
You seem very sure that StriX would flip town. Would you mind giving your reasonings to this? Did you have a townread on him and what in his play made him look like town to you?
I had a null read on StriX. Certainly not scum in my opinion, which was why i refused to vote him.
I personally didnt like his requests.. BUT.. in newbie 33 there were other townies who voiced the same requests StriX.. (I am referring to medic to my marine Spag)... so I gave StriX some dispensation (based on my past experiences).
Seriously.. though Spag was wrong in Newbie 33, he said one thign that has struck a chord in me, and has changed the way I think about situations with lynches.
If there is no contest, the mafia must typically be satisfied. (Spag was wrong, because in that scenario the mafia actually gave up, hence the lack of fight).
With the discussions on Day 1, there was no certainty... why did StriX go with such ease.
To me, it was obvious he was not mafia.
What is unfortunate was my choice of actions, I clouded the thread, and I do regret that and in hindsight I would have kept my vote on TeMiL.
I don't blame Corazon for calling me out, frankly, I would have done the same.
I took a chance in a non-predicated scenario, it didnt pay off. I/We have to move on.
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@Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
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On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
(1) I honestly don't know. Most of today has been me defending myself (an absolute waste of thread space), so I haven't been able to keep up to date with thread status quo.
(2) I think he has been pressured enough, I made my case to his posts, Corazon disagrees with some.
I am still awaiting feedback if everyone thinks I was confirmation biased as per.. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=28#541
For you, You said numerous times you are not a lurker, you a person of few posts, but high quality posts to make up for it.
Your summary post identifies 38 key posts out ~ 100, and only 3 questions have been formulated.
Anyone can do a summary post (yse I appreciate the links you added though)... I think your 3 questions are quality indeed, but I want to know why you are avoiding addressing anything to OmniEulogy.
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As I was getting my long post ready, I determined my case wasn't strong enough and decided against it; also, there were some issues of time that I didn't foresee.
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This is utter bullshit.
Talk people..
@zarepath.. you voted TeMiL.. the Omni.
which of the 2 is a higher profile scum read for you?
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"Post Count Summary Intent: To identify participants ""flying under the radar"" and not actively contributing.
The intent is not to provide a quality check on posts
That onus falls upon all of town individually.
Session 5 From: 05-Jan: 0930 To: 05-Jan: 2030
+ Show Spoiler +- cDgCorazon: 52
(20 in session)
- Sylencia: 39
(11 in session)
- OmniEulogy: 52
(22 in session)
- Spaghetticus: 66
(22 in session)
- Mocsta: 52
(18 in session)
- zarepath: 30
(8 in session)
- TeMil: 10
(1 in session)
- jampidampi: 16
(2 in session)
- StriX: 28
(4 in session)
"
If you wondering how StriX had 4 posts after being lynched.. its because for me he was lynched at 9:59 (not 9, as we dont have day light savings)
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Im here. Ive started to read from N1. If anyone is waiting for an answer please wait until i can read everything.
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Guys, I think there are 2 people on the chopping block tonight. No idea which way its leaning.
On the chance its me:
(1) + Show Spoiler +
(2) + Show Spoiler +I don't know where it went wrong, but, this town environment is really lacking at the moment. Maybe its my fault, but the amount of inactivity is a mafias dream.
Day2, town really needs to step up the activity. Town needs to start finding flaws in peoples cases (regardless of whether I agreed with Corazon comments... him breaking my case down IS SOLID town play.. we need more of this)
(3) The following are suggestions I hope town considers for Day 2 play.
cDgCorazon + Show Spoiler +Overall I like the way you are playing, and its good you called me out. That was a completely sound play.
The only thing I will say to you regarding the above is.. Towards the end, I think you were blinded by my actions and begun to tunnel me.
Because I think you are a critical component of this game, I tried my best to answer your questions with respect (but I REALLY wanted to just tell you to fuck off).
I am telling you this because for Day2, town REALLY will need your pragmatic approach to continue.
Sylencia + Show Spoiler +I think you have been playing this game with great intelligence. I think your positions have been well considered, and in most occasions well justified. We need more of this heading forward with Day 2. If I may, I ask that you follow up on Spaghetticus. I think we are picking up on the same sub text as per one of your first posts. With regards to my pressure on Spag, I am confused by his words and by his actions. By mentioning conflicting views on certain issues, it means that there's possibly something more behind his game plan. If he's not being honest, it's not benefiting town at all.
I would love to supply the posts I think are odd.. but.. that might open too many WIFOM excuses.
OmniEulogy + Show Spoiler +I have reviewed your filter post Day1 lynch. (1) I am stuck with you. I don't think my case had confirmation bias (unfortunately only Corazon has commented). The problem is, on a re-read, and considering content since the case.. I do find some material to be incredibly town motivated. (2) In your defense against my case, you stated I don't like your thought process. Perhaps this is true, and it is precisely why I ask the below of you. I would appreciate your thoughts on Spaghetticus. Is it just me who sees odd, eratic, and confusing behaviour? You already pointed out one Spaghetticus anomaly here. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=26#510I would be curious if you are able to dig out others.
Spaghetticus + Show Spoiler +OK. you have the biggest filter.. and so what.. In my opinion the quality is lacking, and the content convoluted. I find many of your posts wishy-washy and confusing. I also find your behaviour during end of Day1 all over the place. For a person who prides himself on analytical, controlled play; you were very erratic. Completely uncharacteristic. Then, there is this post... On January 05 2013 03:53 Spaghetticus wrote: @OmniEulogy I get a scum read off you... but...
I am not going to pursue you if I can help it. Your process is so alien to me I can't really fathom your motives. I would like other people to apply scrutiny while I look elsewhere. I just can't see you as not scum, but this was true in XXXIII and you flipped town. Please people, before you attribute a scumbuddy relationship here... ... ... ... this is too high profile and obvious. My contribution will be substantial elsewhere, I genuinely feel my objectivity is compromised entirely when dealing with Omni. This is town motivated and too bold a risk for too little a reward to be a scum ploy. I have reasonable town motive, I don't want this post to haunt me. How is this town motivated when you followed up by unvoting TeMiL and voting StriX.. its clear in your filter to see.
zarepath + Show Spoiler +I still stand by what I said to Sylencia. I think your play has been "in your own way" aligned with town principles.
We need you to step up though, interact more, contribute more. I know it feels good to sit back and soak in the thread, and hopefully someone makes a compelling point. But with the lack of activity currently, more town players need to step up and contribute.
One of your last posts calls out two lurkers. jampi and TiMeL.
I ask that you develop these relationships further in Day2.
jampidampi + Show Spoiler +You confuse me the same as OmniEulogy. Some things are helpful, others are pointless. How to interpret you.. I think town would get a better sense of your alignment if you continued your conversations with Sylencia. This is not intended to head towards OMGUS, moreso, zarepath raised curious points about Sylencia voting tendencies. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=25#482Do you think this is worth exploring further?
TeMiL + Show Spoiler +Honestly, I don't even know if you will read this. If you are mafia, well done. If I didnt have a meta, I would def try to play the way you have. People thought my 1hr vote was murky, but your post out of no where was even worse. That truly fucked up the thought process.
On the off chance you are town, I ask that you try to vote in Day 2 earlier, to at least give the others a chance to adjust.
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Good night.
Will post the popcorn when I wake up (post-deadline).
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Alright, I'm finally back and analysing the posts made. What I have done is taken out the interesting parts that are related to the Strix vote and given my thoughts on the reasoning behind them when possible. (Not everything I mention leads back to the Strix vote, some things are just other things I noticed)
Firstly, we have Strix's unvote, which comes after his defense of jampi, and saying that his vote on Temil was based on a pressure play. To the majority of the group, it looked like a scummy move because he was trying to possibly rectify his mistake, but I think he felt pressured to take it off so that is what he did.
Jampi says his vote will not change because of his read on Strix, this is due to the lack of town motive behind it. When I asked jampi about this first though, I was under the impression that this post didn't make for a case against him because it didn't actually say he was scum, and could actually be town motivated.
Mocsta makes a big case against having Temil around. A lot of it is quite logical, but having it done day 1 over someone else seemed to me like a non-standard choice, since it wasn't so much scum hunting as kicking someone from the game. Doing an analysis on posting this now, given we know what happened afterwards also makes me wonder why it needed to be brought up in the first place. Having suspected OE (as stated in the future post) before going to bed, why was he encouraging us to vote for someone then try to get us all to change later? (I have a feeling I know the answer to this, but if Mocsta, you would like to elaborate that would be great)
Next page (Pg. 18)
Starts off with the conclusion of what would be the Temil-country theory.
Interestingly enough, Spag decides to move against what he had said before of "I will vote for the lurkiest player", to one of the other two lurkers. The reason for possibly changing to Strix is given, but at that point in time, the reasoning for moving away from Temil was not (convoluted, possibly).
Jampi makes a post after Mocsta has left, explaining the reasoning behind his low quantity of posts. This is mostly done in response to Spag's potential vote change.
Page 19
Spag's reasoning for not voting for Temil are given here, but despite the negativity given in the post, to me this confuses me as to why he might not be voted for.
At this point in time, Corazon deters more people from voting Temil by saying they would be lazy in doing so. This is what I think lead to the slow beginning into shifting forces onto Strix. With people who did not vote Temil yet being pre-emptively called out for it, they would have to find another avenue to go down. At this point it was likely to be one of the other two lurkers - jampi and Strix. Strix was a lot easier target simply because there was possible scum motivation behind his words and lack of contribution.
Interesting thing to note is the Unvote happening from Omni at this point in time. With tides turning towards others in the votes, the only explanation given is that he felt Zare had contributed more. This is while still being 3-4 pages behind in the posts, which is weird - because he didn't know what was next. It was a very random unvote in my eyes.
Page 20.
Despite saying he wants to see Strix hang around till Day 2, and that everyone except Zare should not be voted, it is decided that Strix would be voted for due to his lack of insightful posts which I guess I am partly to blame for for making people expect it (since that was the description I gave for his usual play) However, it is odd that there is a backtrack in the statements so quickly.
His explanation on his vote for Strix then says he is OE's top scum read. If Strix was your top scum read, why did you say you wanted to leave him till day 2? I'm not sure what I am to make of this change of heart and decision to vote Strix. Going back to the point I made earlier about Corazon's post, I feel this might have come into play regarding the decision to vote for him. Since I don't think he was ready to make a case against one of the more active players, I think in the case the 'don't vote temil if you're not lazy' post was not made, Temil would've been the target of OE's vote.
Zare targets temil for his first vote, for a few reasons given by Mocsta, and the idea of having temil replaced not being a good idea is fair enough.
Page 21.
I think when Strix posts at the start of the day, he ends up burying himself further, since he admits he won't be contributing anything in terms of long analysis for the rest of the day (with 2 hours left) and what looked to be a deflection onto OE.
At the point Dandel Ion makes the 1 hour remaining vote count, I think all the foundations that were setup for Strix to make the fall were made. He had people already suspecting him, he did not improve his case the next day and there was already a hint from Mocsta stating he would be moving his votes. The post after this would be the be start of the vote shift which eventually lead to Strix's mislynch.
With the Temil train quickly derailing, Mocsta's post served as a catalyst for those on board it to quickly move to another target. He made a post about OE, and changed his vote to him, and we then had Zare quietly follow up with a second vote quickly.
Spag, being the only one left of Temil, decided it would be better to move onto Strix, as he had said the previous night.
Corazon, being the fourth vote on Strix, decided on it due to the case made by OE. With another convinced, and what I now realise to be a lack of defense made by Strix, he was set to be lynched.
I choose not to change my vote, which may have had an impact on who got eliminated due to Temil's vote coming out of nowhere. Why I did not change is answered at the end, since I think I saw it was a question I was asked.
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Overall, there were a few reasons why I think that this lynch happened:
- People were deterred from voting for Temil after Corazon's explicit message saying that people were lazy to vote for Temil. - Omni's choice of lynch was technically the 3rd to do so, and it was noted by Strix himself that it was quite a bandwagoning, due to the weird set of statements he had made just before voting for Strix. - Strix did not defend himself from the second case against (OE's case against him) and it did not help his cause whatsoever. His actions during the last few hours were also quite suspicious when read, and that may have been the tipping point for the fourth vote from Corazon.
Unfortunately for me, this analysis I made turned out a lot poorer than I expected, maybe due to the time of night I ended up starting this, maybe I didn't have as much to say as I thought I did, but I tried doing it the way.
On January 05 2013 19:14 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 10:32 zarepath wrote: Another thing to look at is the fact that as soon as Moc put up his analysis, the four following votes happened:
I switched from TeMiL to OE. Spag switched from TeMiL to StriX (after my vote) Sylencia did NOT switch to either OE or StriX; he was obviously paying attention to the thread (he kept posting), but felt no need to push the dial one way or the other even when a single vote for either of the two (StriX and OE) would have made a large difference. Instead he remained on a person who was almost assuredly not going to be lynched. TeMiL votes for jampidampi for no discernible reason.
Spag's vote is a direct declaration for StriX over OE or jampidampi, and does not hold at all to his LAL policy he's been harping about all day. I will have to check the filter (chaotic two hours and I was in and out), but I don't recall his explanation for that.
Sylencia and TeMiL's votes, however, are indirect assurances of StriX being guilty over OE without having to say as much. They didn't reiterate strong cases for jampidampi or try to argue anyone else into also voting for jampidampi.
I am bringing this back to attention. Sylencia since you are here, what are your thoughts on the feedback zarepath has issued?
I can only speak for myself obviously, but at the time I was not completely satisfied with the response given by jampi regarding what I had asked him. I have explained it further in a past post.
My thoughts on OE were at the time not exactly very well set in stone. I had not completely read through the post that Mocsta had written, and I wasn't going to bandwagon onto it just because others were. My read on Strix was still fairly null before the last hours of day 1, maybe partly due to some bias of my knowledge of how he behaves in real life, and how he plays these games in real life, I didn't see anything that deviated from what he normally did anyways when he played either side.
So the decision I was made to make was a fairly null read vs. a sudden case against someone who I had not looked deeply into with about half an hour or so to choose. Thus, voting for either of them would be a pretty stupid decision I think and so I chose to stick with the person I had suspected from the night before and stuck with it.
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Just woke up, Before I go through everything and write up a large response to everything, if anybody is here and would like to discuss anything, I believe town atm is Mocsta, Spag, Cora, Syl, and myself. This leaves Zare, Jampi, and TeMiL who I don't have reads for and I believe it is most likely we would find scum in one, and if TeMiL is scum possibly two of them.
If anybody is around while I am writing I'll be refreshing this page periodically for the next few hours.
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Hey guys, I only have a little time before I got to work, but I just want to share a couple of quick opinions for you guys:
1. I'm glad both jampi and Syl both had analysis on the crazy ending to D1, but Syl's analysis is a lot more in-depth than Jampi's, who is more of a summary with a few questions attached. While I wish Jampi could have posted a little bit more analysis, I think we can use the two together to investigate the crazy ending. Well done you two.
2. Now that I've had the time to think about it, the OE bandwagon did not really go anywhere. It was Mocsta (who made the original case), StriX (who simply did not want to die), and Zare (who has not given any reason for it). Just some food for thought.
3. Zare, keeping your opinions from the town is the scummiest thing you can do, outside of saying you are scum (but of course, you might not get voted off for that =P). I don't believe for a second your reasoning for not giving a reason for your vote. Tell us why you voted for OE, even if that means rewriting the case and showing it to us. Take it as "do it, or else I will vote for you the first minute of D2".
Anyways, I'll come back from work in a few hours, and then I will be able to join the discussion and post my "last will" right at the buzzer.
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ah to Answer your question to me about Spag Mocsta, I'm not really sure how to take Spags approach to this game. It's much different to the only other game I've played with him. I see him as town, although the only game I played with him where he was town his behavior was completely different. He still hasn't explained why he made the switch to StriX over myself as he claimed a few times he saw me as scummy,
He also made one post that interests me a bit. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote: I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.
This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.
It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim. I bolded what I found odd. Would a town Spag want us to waste time on him when he knows he is town? Would he not try and prove to us that he is town by his previous actions at this point and say that he was removed because he believes he has given us a good indication that he is town because of (x) reason. I'm not sure if I like him saying "if I flip scum ignore me". He should know if he will flip scum or not. As a townie I would have said "If I get lynched and when I flip town I hope you believe me". What he has said almost seems like a difference in how you think when you are pretending to be something and when you actually are. However I believe I'm over-analyzing it.
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Alright, so my thoughts on the lead-up to the vote, how people reacted, and what it could mean.
I'll start off by trying to be as straight forward as possible. When I said I would like to see StriX in D2, I meant that because of the reputation that had been given to him, I expected some good analytical points to come out from him and never did. He was my top scum read and stayed that way until he flipped town. I have said multiple times I would not vote for TeMiL, if I wasn't voting for StriX my vote would have gone on Zare.
Things that bother me during and after the voting stage
First off the lack of some votes being explained is concerning. Zare and Spag both switched their votes without explaining why they were voting the way they were. They didn't post reasons for not voting for the others or try to convince people to lynch their target. Zare simply voted for me and left, promising an explanation that never came. Spag gave some lead up for why he would vote for StriX but I'd like to hear it again from him in more detail. Was it just a lurker lynch?
Jampi had left prior to the vote but did not strengthen what he believed to be a weak case against StriX and had plenty of time to do so. He actually has barely said anything about the subject and even in his summary it is just a post about the chronological order of how things happened. It's helpful for sure but has no new information and very few of his own thoughts are presented. His last post has been On January 05 2013 19:27 jampidampi wrote: @Mocsta Do you still think Omni is scum? If you do, please pressure him more.
Mocsta made a MONSTER of a case against me, even if I don't like it the amount of time he spent on it and the amount of time I had to spend addressing it were quite large. I believe asking him to pressure me more is scummy. I would have welcomed it if YOU had pressured me for answers, but why make Mocsta continue while you sit back and continue to lurk? This has just made you my top scum read at the moment. You made a weak case against a now confirmed townie, did not pursue it but instead let me and others pressure him further, and now that he got lynched you try to deflect the entire thing onto me? scum play.
@Mocsta This was my thought process behind the case you made against me. StriX was scum in my mind with an hour left, you made a large case on me to try and flip the votes around, I believed you were possibly scum who had convinced everybody that you were town and this was your case to save your scum mate. It would have made sense considering you had only voted for TeMiL up to that point which was an extremely safe move, and most of your contribution has been in getting town to talk to eachother (which is also what gives you a strong town read). I wouldn't put it over you to be scum and controlling town though. Think of it as a compliment in a way. I no longer believe that you can be scum and I believe that you are the strongest town player we have at the moment. As you clearly tried to save a townie by making a case against somebody you believe (incorrectly I might add) to be scum. Fair play and I welcome it as we continue through this game. Your case was also why I would have disagreed that scum did not try to intervene with the vote, I was also worried that if you were town and 1 scum was on myself and the other being StriX, you would have given him the perfect excuse to change his votes during the last moments.
I don't have much to say on Cora, the difference in this game and the last blows my mind, confirmed town.
Syl's play reminds me of his town game in NMM XXXIII as well. I could never get a good read on him and I'm having difficulties this game as well. @Syl To answer your question about StriX, I really wanted to see what he would bring to the table, but after my mistake in XXXIII I didn't want to change my vote because of somebody elses case. I ended up missing a scum lynch D1 because of it and got Spag killed. I wanted to try to avoid that and stick with my own top scum read this game. Unfortunately I made a mistake.
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Okay, just caught up on sleep. Hopefully I can write things without sounding like a retard now.
Some quick notes:
- Someone said I made a lot of last minute FoS, which is scummy. This is true, sort of. I called out a lot of people that I thought were not contributing as much as they should, but these callouts were urging them to contribute for a strong day two (at least some of them). I was not posting suspicion so much as I was pressuring for activity.
- The Analysis by Syl was great. Jamp was broad strokes, and I would like to hear more specific reads, but this is a good start and I appreciate it. Omni your effort is appreciated, but I have at least one major criticism which I will get to soon, I have a lot of requests I must attend to.
- Am I right in thinking Zare is yet to post analysis?
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My justification for switching to StiX.
This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess.
I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever. When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options:
- vote StriX
- vote Omni
- vote Jamp
As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX.
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