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Oh man that case on me is a lot less impressive than it first looked. Like it's actually shockingly bad out of what I'd expect from a town Z-Bo.
1) Hapa's Town Reads (particularly the one on Tunkeg)
Firstly, you say that I shouldn't have initially found Tunkeg town because I disagreed with some of his martyr reads. This is absurd. Whether or not a player is correct has nothing to do with whether they're scum or not.
Secondly, you think my switch on Tunkeg is scummy because I "used" WBG's blue-flip. This is both faulty logic and a misrepresentation. I eventually switched to Tunkeg because he was too sure of himself THROUGHOUT his filter on MULTIPLE subjects:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=77#1536
Also, I did find Tunkeg being "too sure" on his WBG read as scummy. Several players in the game (when Tunkeg posted his "martyr" thing) thought WBG was scum. It's really easy for scum to go "oh this guy is 100% scum I'm sure of it." Scum are confident because they know their objectives, and I thought a townie would be less-confident about such a read. I was clearly wrong.
2) Lack of Interest
Funny enough, this isn't at all about my lack of interest, but more about my Tunkeg read. But anyway, my "lack of interest" was on display in Chrono Trigger Mafia as well. I was town. I was super-engaged in Mario Mini. I was scum.
I've been in much of a different mood this game. I've been far less "involved" due to me being busy. That certainly reflects in my gameplay, but it's not allignment indicative.
3) My "Bus" of VE
You are LYING Z-Boson
On December 15 2012 10:18 Hapahauli wrote:Not time to vote Palmar.
I'll have to look between jay, VE, BL, and Z-Bo for the next scummer. I was planning to post question VE about one of his posts if Tunkeg flipped red. That sadly didn't happen, but the post seems relevant regardless: Show nested quote +On December 14 2012 16:21 VisceraEyes wrote:
After looking at Tunkeg's filter, it's mostly blah. Not even in a bad way or good way...just blah. The only thing I don't like about his filter is nicely summed up in Hapa's post on the guy - his periods of absolute certainty that he shouldn't have if he's town.
His "martyr reads" and Adam's reads ended up being strikingly similar, but Tunkeg's came first and Adam flipped scum.
He MIGHT be scum, but I'm not really interested in lynching him today. I prefer to see ZBoson flip before making a final judgement call on Tunkeg. If I can't get a ZBoson lynch and Tunkeg is the only other alternative however, I would vote for Tunkeg. The bolded is a pretty strong statement. I'm not sure if it's just poor wording or not, but he seems to be putting some heavy suspicion on Tunkeg, then dancing around the issue in favor of Z-Bo.
This is my question to VE. You completely ignored it and quoted a different post. What gives?
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Also, what happens when you look at Z-Boson's Tunkeg stances? Hilarity ensues:
1) Finds Tunkeg town for martyr post
Tunkeg is most likely town. Much to my frustration, I feel I was wrong about him. I see no reason for him to go ahead and give away his scum-buddy (maybe two of them, if I'm right about bugs) in his death reads.
2) Asks me about Tunkeg, AGREES with me about Tunkeg:
On December 13 2012 11:51 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2012 10:17 Hapahauli wrote:
Between Bluelightz and Tunkeg for me atm. Tunkeg's martyr post doesn't look too hot right now given WBG's flip. Hapa, can you elaborate? Why do you think that Tunkeg looks worse now that WBG has flipped?
On December 13 2012 12:31 Z-BosoN wrote:
Yea I'll have to reassess Tunkeg
I really thought him to be scum day 1 and thought he might be town since he included Adam as scum in his lists, but then again, that might not mean much, because Adam was pretty likely to get lynched when Tunkeg martyred.
I'm off to sleep, Gnight
3) Yep, fuck that town read, I want to lynch Tunkeg
On December 14 2012 14:29 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2012 09:53 Djodref wrote:On December 14 2012 02:27 Z-BosoN wrote:@DjodrefYou bring an interesting point regarding Tunkeg's "shying away" from Palmar. It's additional fluff for him not to actually scumhunt. I don't understand this passage, though, where you are calling it a scumslip: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=69#1361Calling people dumb like this (reference to potential jailkeepers) is a scumslip. You call town players dumb and bad, mafia players are just mafia players  Can you elaborate? @ Z-BosonOn December 13 2012 00:36 Tunkeg wrote:On December 13 2012 00:32 Clarity_nl wrote:
Directing the jailkeeper when his target is "so obvious only a retard would not" is dumb and useless and throwing WIFOM in the air for no reason. If the target is so obvious why are you even saying it? Well, there are some seriously dumb people playing this game. If they happened to roll jk they need to be told what to do. For me, this totally could be a scumslip. Who he is talking about ? How does he know who is actually dumb (potential jks) and who is just playing dumb on purpose (potential mafia players) ? It could be easily explained if he had extra info on players alignment, if he is mafia for example. Honestly, I wouldn't have worried so much about this post if Tunkeg hadn't totally shied away from Palmar when he started to ask questions about it. I could totally see a town player post like this but his reaction feels forced. On December 13 2012 00:45 Tunkeg wrote:On December 13 2012 00:40 Palmar wrote:On December 13 2012 00:36 Tunkeg wrote:On December 13 2012 00:32 Clarity_nl wrote:
Directing the jailkeeper when his target is "so obvious only a retard would not" is dumb and useless and throwing WIFOM in the air for no reason. If the target is so obvious why are you even saying it? Well, there are some seriously dumb people playing this game. If they happend to roll jk they need to be told what to do. Please list the people dumb enough. Nah, its the same people I have called dumb earlier. Maybe they haven't noticed or forgot. Don't want to insult them more, they might just not do as told to spite me. Like, seriously, what the fuck is that kind of line of thinking ? Why the JK would like to listen to Tunkeg at the first place ? Why would he be emotional ? And now I'm not going to speculate because I have learned from my previous games that this will almost always be futile, especially when we are still in day 2. Now I see what you mean. It makes a lot of sense, and it goes along with the fact that I feel Tunkeg seems waaaay too certain of his reads this game. Btw, corrected your post ^^ I'll revert back to my original thoughts on Tunkeg. I to this day have not gotten over on how he ignored a case I made on a "suspicion" he had. ##Vote TunkegAlso
4) "Guys, I know it's right before the lynch, but I want to make sure that you know I have reasons for voting Tunkeg even though everyone already is voting him."
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On December 23 2012 12:25 Z-BosoN wrote:Hapa, your case is extremely weak and reeks of desperation. I didn't give a town read day one? Is that why I'm scum? You're probably comparing that to my play on mario which got me lynched. Well, compare that to my whopping ONE town read in liquid city: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=371260&user=28495 (which a fairly obvious one on shady sands). And my ZERO town reads in XXVIII: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=370487I skimmed over these, but I think the count is right, you are free to check. Counting just day one of course. I usually like to give my thoughts on after we gain solid information. On the VE lynch, why are you lying? The deadline is @10:00 in the forum time. I made the vote one hour and 15 minutes before the deadline, because that's when I had to go. I didn't talk to VE because VE has been a dick ever since Liquid City. On Chronotrigger, note that even in the scum qt we didn't talk. Unless of course, you are going to use this as a tell and find my other teammate, who I also didn't talk to? Or is it because in your scummy I randomly chose VE? Pssht. Dealing with that second rebuttal post of yours in a sec
You're totes right about the 1h 15min thing. However it still stands that you went from "I'm down with a lynch" to "ehhhh I want to park my vote on jay" to "fuck that! Lynch VE that fucker!"... all when it was convenient for you to do so.
You didn't pursue your read on Vivax despite explicitly calling him scum, in favor of "being down with a VE lynch"
Then, when VE claimed, you were in super-doubt-mode and wanted to leave a vote on Jay.
Then when people didn't move their vote from VE, "LOL HE'S SCUM I'm sure!"
It's not a consistent attitude, and you fail-bussed each other.
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Ahhh the "certainty" heuristic on Tunkeg. Part of the reason I initially read him as town as because I was pretty convinced that WBG was scum. Guy was pushing the same case as me, and I didn't give his "certainty" much thought. When WBG flipped, the "certainty" with which Tunkeg was pushing WBG looked pretty bad in my eyes.
As for "investment", I was very invested in the early game. My investment shortly thereafter fell off a cliff when a) finals week started and b) other games that need-not-be-mentioned started.
As for "meta read" on Tunkeg, my "meta reads" generally involve skimming a player's past games for a couple of minutes to determine a "feel" for how they play. Not that difficult or time-consuming. Seems to be fairly accurate in retrospect though.
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Hmmm you actually do have a point that you don't give town-reads in your town-games period. Funnily enough, the last time I've seen you give regular town reads was CT Mafia (where you were scum). Hell 2 posts into our fight and this is starting to feel like our "fight" in GSL III already.
Hmmmmmmmmm. But then who would the other two scum be...
Rather than OMGUS each other Z-Bo, would you like to bounce off reads about the other three candidates?
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What are your opinions on my assessment of Marv?
On December 23 2012 10:28 Hapahauli wrote:After thinking about it some, I'm 99% sure that marv is town. Firstly, his veteran claim is very risky from a scum perspective. There's a high chance that there are 4 blues in this game. Given that he claimed veteran, he would risk a lot of pressure on himself had a 5th blue counterclaimed. No one has done so, and the risk/reward of such a fake-claim suggests that Marv is town. In addition, there are too many easy opportunities he has turned down to be scum. He could have very easily pushed the BL lynch and come out fine from it. In addition, of all the players he seemed the most concerned about finding out Djo's alignment and objectively considering things. Finally, he's been the most hesitant to jump on my lynch out of the players. As a last point, I'm coming away from his interaction with Tunkeg (page 11 of his filter) as pretty authentic: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953&user=140487¤tpage=11I'm not sure why marv is alive right now, but his play shows far too much correlation with his town play (and not nearly enough with his scum-play) for him to be scum.
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Sowwy I be like triple-sniping you and all 'dat
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My secondary theory regarding the scumteam was that Adam was bussed on D1. Given VE's vote on Adam, mafia going all-out to bus Adam seems like a reasonable and coherent D1 strategy.
I can see GRush being scum in this manner, because some of his D1 posts are almost... prophetic for a player of his caliber:
On December 12 2012 06:25 grush57 wrote:
That's pretty reasonable. I'm a bit cautious of Bluelightz because he is a vet. Jay strikes me as a foolish townie and Tunk is probably a noobie. I want to vote Adam because he is reminding me of his scum play.
I be like dang.
Le probleme with this is that I have such a hard time seeing Marv as scum. Also, Munk-E dropped a pretty late vote on Adam as well, and well... I'm not scum *shrug*
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I mean I suppose I COULD find marv scum in spite of his vet claim.
Like his claim was pretty late today. Maybe he just saw that no-one claimed, and assumed it was safe (and therefore just claimed). Also, aside from his early vote on Adam, he hasn't been very impressive this game in the scum-hunting department. His two major contributions to this game in recent memory are him a) lynching Tunkeg and b) establishing Djo as town.
However, I still find it very difficult to rationalize his level of engagement (this late in the game) from a scum perspective. He's been by far one of the most active players in the game and displays a level-headedness that I associate with town-marv.
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As for Djo, I keep looking at his filter and seeing townie in him. Given that VE bussed Adam, it should have been really really clear to the scumteam not to resist the Adam lynch. Yet then Djo goes and does the exact opposite by changing votes between Jay and Tunkeg.... eh I can't see it.
Djo is capable of playing a really engaged scum-game...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440&user=284165
But even so, his filter above (Mario Mini) was almost devoid of scumhunting. His cases this game seem remarkably genuine.
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I mean we could say that the scumteam had really poor communication and that Djo was largely acting on his own, but even then, given that two in the group of us are scum and two of us have lasted until the endgame, communication can't have been that much of an issue, even in the early game.
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So strategically speaking, I keep coming back to a scumteam of Grush//Marv with an outside chance of you (Z-Boson). Hopefully you can start posting more so I can verify that.
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See the investment is tripping me up a bit. Because I've seen three of his scumgames:
Normal Mini III
GSL III
Deathnote Mini
In all three of these games, his activity and engagement is nowhere near what he's displaying this game. Normal Mini III is the closest comparison, but when the town's activity dies down towards the end, Marv is barely posting by the end.
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On December 23 2012 13:36 Z-BosoN wrote:
Yea I grabbed a snack. Hang in there.
I'd like to know more of your town read on Djo. Is it still that day one stuff and his activity when being pressured?
For two reasons:
1) His actions aren't coherent with a mafia "strategy." VE bussed Adam. Scum should have known that Adam was going down. Yet Djo goes and tries to last-minute voteswitch on both tunkeg and jay at the lynch deadline... I can't see the scum-mentality in that, especially since the mafia QT should have been on "BUS ALERT!"
2) His activity when pressured was absurd. He was bombing cases left and right. Such an insane amount of effort in scumhunting that I can only attribute to a townie.
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Muze with me on Djo a bit. You were playing with him in Mario Mini - you see any similarities/differences to that? He seems to me like 10000x more concerned with scumhunting in this game.
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On December 23 2012 13:49 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2012 13:42 Hapahauli wrote:On December 23 2012 13:36 Z-BosoN wrote:
Yea I grabbed a snack. Hang in there.
I'd like to know more of your town read on Djo. Is it still that day one stuff and his activity when being pressured? For two reasons: 1) His actions aren't coherent with a mafia "strategy." VE bussed Adam. Scum should have known that Adam was going down. Yet Djo goes and tries to last-minute voteswitch on both tunkeg and jay at the lynch deadline... I can't see the scum-mentality in that, especially since the mafia QT should have been on "BUS ALERT!" 2) His activity when pressured was absurd. He was bombing cases left and right. Such an insane amount of effort in scumhunting that I can only attribute to a townie. 1) Well, Djo has been around enough to work out how you and marv think. I tried the same thing in CT, where I went with sandro all the way trying to convince people, etc. then didn't really want to bus him in favor of another scum (Toad) 2) An engaged scum djo is perfectly capable of this, imo
I feel that the game mechanics in CT made your "strategy" (bussing toad over sandro) quite normal in retrospect (Toad's abilities in particular). CT seemed more of a special case. I can't find a similar strategy here, especially when the deviation from the normal strategy would make you look TERRRIBLE.
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On December 23 2012 14:02 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2012 13:55 Hapahauli wrote:On December 23 2012 13:49 Z-BosoN wrote:On December 23 2012 13:42 Hapahauli wrote:On December 23 2012 13:36 Z-BosoN wrote:
Yea I grabbed a snack. Hang in there.
I'd like to know more of your town read on Djo. Is it still that day one stuff and his activity when being pressured? For two reasons: 1) His actions aren't coherent with a mafia "strategy." VE bussed Adam. Scum should have known that Adam was going down. Yet Djo goes and tries to last-minute voteswitch on both tunkeg and jay at the lynch deadline... I can't see the scum-mentality in that, especially since the mafia QT should have been on "BUS ALERT!" 2) His activity when pressured was absurd. He was bombing cases left and right. Such an insane amount of effort in scumhunting that I can only attribute to a townie. 1) Well, Djo has been around enough to work out how you and marv think. I tried the same thing in CT, where I went with sandro all the way trying to convince people, etc. then didn't really want to bus him in favor of another scum (Toad) 2) An engaged scum djo is perfectly capable of this, imo I feel that the game mechanics in CT made your "strategy" (bussing toad over sandro) quite normal in retrospect (Toad's abilities in particular). CT seemed more of a special case. I can't find a similar strategy here, especially when the deviation from the normal strategy would make you look TERRRIBLE. Well, for scum Djo, all three of his buddies were already bussing. Maybe he felt his bus wouldn't be able to feel natural during his previous posts (which pretty much defended adam from debears), and decided to stick with his momentum. I'm not confident that's enough to warrant a complete town read.
He seemed to have Adam as slightly scum all D1. I don't think it would have looked bad at all for him to vote Adam.
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On December 23 2012 14:06 Z-BosoN wrote:
Looking at grush, I really can't see anything in his posts. I didn't see the big difference in his filter marv announced earlier, not even after running around my house naked three times.
Djo is now a town read for him, despite him wanting to kill Djo badly earlier on.
VE also manifested a town to scum transition in his filter.
And he seriously thinks we are a scum team.
I really can't make any of his posts.
I mean on the one hand, Grush seems different personality wise from his scumgames. Unfortunately I can say this about everyone here.
So beyond personality, his play individually seems scummy.
There was that post I pointed out earlier, which was borderline prophetic of people's alignments. Certainly a far cry from his gameplay in LVII.
Regarding his vote on Djo, he's super-convinced that he wants to vote Djo:
On December 18 2012 11:07 grush57 wrote:
Oh wow, goodjob guys. :D
DJO NEXT? ;D
Then in 10 minutes, decides that Djo is town:
On December 18 2012 11:17 grush57 wrote:
Honestly you have been pretty towny lately.
Jay or Hapa plox.
He seems to reverse himself pretty quickly, and all of a sudden comes up with good reasons why Djo is town:
On December 18 2012 11:31 grush57 wrote:
I was obsessed with djo but then I questioned myself why djo is scum.
On December 18 2012 12:02 grush57 wrote:
He has been scumhunting lately and made a case on VE pretty early on.
There's more in there as well. Like he's really wants to lynch Djo until I coax him into voting VE, with which he immediately complies. He does something similar with the Tunkeg lynch, where he votes Tunkeg because "the bandwagon can't be stopped"
On December 15 2012 05:50 grush57 wrote:
So I assume he is posting bm to save himself? Or he knows he is going to die. I wouldn't consider this making him definite scum but the wagon is probably not going to stop.
I still think that we should be lynching djordef but whatever.
##Unvote
##Vote: Tunkeg
I know it's a case on GRush and whatnot, but it does seem like he's scum. He does seem to be behaving a lot like a "cooperative mafia" with his play.
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On December 23 2012 14:12 Z-BosoN wrote:Looking at this post, he sets himself up for both options: Show nested quote +On December 12 2012 08:12 Djodref wrote:I'll vote Adam if I need to but I really don't think it's the best lynch for today... I've seen successful late (like 5 min before deadline) counter bangwagon in Mario Mini Mafia so it's never too late So for him it's either look suspicious for an useless bus vote, or look like dumb townie for trying to sway the vote to a mislynch, if he's scum.
Oh that quote is really interesting. See one of my reads about Djo is that he's someone who overreacts to things he's seen be successful. So he's really obsessed with blue-speculation because he caught a scum-team member like that in one of his newbie games. I feel the "last minute bandwagon" thing is similar - he saw one be successful in Mario Mini, wasn't very satisfied with the lynch, and wanted to emulate a similar success.
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EPT
