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On October 11 2012 03:54 Keirathi wrote:
Honestly, looking back through Jingle's filter, I'm having an extreme amount of trouble believing that he is town.
I read your reasoning austin, but I just don't find it sufficient. He kept talking about gonzaw and Matt for hours and hours, then he made a case that I mostly agreed with (because I thought iamperfection was town), although I didn't think it was enough to vote Matt, just keep an eye on him. After iamp flipped scum, no one ever even really looked at jingle again.
1) Has absolutely no opinion on iamp day 1
2) Builds cases on gonzaw and Matt, while making excuses about not being "pushy super agressive" to explain away why is wasn't pushing them so hard.
3) Has literally done nothing substantial besides tunnel gonzaw all game
4) Really "safe" claim
5) Claims hider, while S&B's role is Reverse Hider. Roleblocker flips day1, and my role is Roleblocker Roleblocker. Too much coincidence.
I can't really get behind any of those other cases. Its all based too much on things that we don't know who is lying about (and we know we have at *LEAST* 2 people who aren't being completely honest with their information).
And I still trust S&B because I literally have no reason to distrust my Role PM.
##unvote
##Vote: JingleHell
Have you read his filter from PTP3? If you have, does it not feel like "he v grush" in PTP3 = "he v gonzaw" in this game? I guess even if they feel alike you may still be convinced.
I'm finding it difficult to argue his towniness on anything other than my theory, given his claim. But the analogies to PTP3 are also there to me, and are the best point I can raise.
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My role pm says nothing about moving peoples place on the playerlist also I am unblockable (forgot that)
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Okeedoke. I just assumed that happened and went nuts over it. You not moving people around makes more sense than you just deciding to patently lie about your actions. Also, do you use portals do move people or no? Does it specify?
Wait...any other modifiers we should know about? Right now you're an unroleblockable veteran bus driver.
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On October 11 2012 03:54 Keirathi wrote:
Honestly, looking back through Jingle's filter, I'm having an extreme amount of trouble believing that he is town.
I read your reasoning austin, but I just don't find it sufficient. He kept talking about gonzaw and Matt for hours and hours, then he made a case that I mostly agreed with (because I thought iamperfection was town), although I didn't think it was enough to vote Matt, just keep an eye on him. After iamp flipped scum, no one ever even really looked at jingle again.
1) Has absolutely no opinion on iamp day 1
2) Builds cases on gonzaw and Matt, while making excuses about not being "pushy super agressive" to explain away why is wasn't pushing them so hard.
3) Has literally done nothing substantial besides tunnel gonzaw all game
4) Really "safe" claim
5) Claims hider, while S&B's role is Reverse Hider. Roleblocker flips day1, and my role is Roleblocker Roleblocker. Too much coincidence.
I can't really get behind any of those other cases. Its all based too much on things that we don't know who is lying about (and we know we have at *LEAST* 2 people who aren't being completely honest with their information).
And I still trust S&B because I literally have no reason to distrust my Role PM.
##unvote
##Vote: JingleHell
my role doesn't counteract hiders, so i don't really agree with your last point.
that said i kind of agree with your point on just tunneling gonzaw all game
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basically i have the opposite problem from gonzaw - i feel like literally everyone might be scum.
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Yo S&B who will you vote for, which claim do you believe and how do they hold up with your reads?
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its hard not to think matt is town with an un counterclaimed chell. even if cave johnson was town and my speculation didnt hold up, it's difficult not to assume at least the very basic "glados is scum and chell is town" portal theme.
i have a question for you - under what conditions exactly do you win? As I understand it, you win either:
(a) glados and chell die, and red scum wins
(b) you survive until endgame and town wins
So if red scum wins but chell is still alive do you lose? Or does the survivor condition overcome that?
Basically how it seems to me is that as long as matt is alive you don't count as red scum, but once matt dies you count as scum for the "faction>other factions" and for the calculation of KP so we probably have to lynch you as soon as matt dies.
For voting today we're between jingle, hiro, ghost and austin imo. I still kind of have a town read on austin, just because his play doesn't feel off to me and I think it would be off if this really was his first scum game.
I've been thinking ghost is scum for a long time, so my lynch order probably is ghost>hiro=jingle.
Waiting to vote until closer to deadline though.
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On October 11 2012 04:08 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2012 03:54 Keirathi wrote:
Honestly, looking back through Jingle's filter, I'm having an extreme amount of trouble believing that he is town.
I read your reasoning austin, but I just don't find it sufficient. He kept talking about gonzaw and Matt for hours and hours, then he made a case that I mostly agreed with (because I thought iamperfection was town), although I didn't think it was enough to vote Matt, just keep an eye on him. After iamp flipped scum, no one ever even really looked at jingle again.
1) Has absolutely no opinion on iamp day 1
2) Builds cases on gonzaw and Matt, while making excuses about not being "pushy super agressive" to explain away why is wasn't pushing them so hard.
3) Has literally done nothing substantial besides tunnel gonzaw all game
4) Really "safe" claim
5) Claims hider, while S&B's role is Reverse Hider. Roleblocker flips day1, and my role is Roleblocker Roleblocker. Too much coincidence.
I can't really get behind any of those other cases. Its all based too much on things that we don't know who is lying about (and we know we have at *LEAST* 2 people who aren't being completely honest with their information).
And I still trust S&B because I literally have no reason to distrust my Role PM.
##unvote
##Vote: JingleHell my role doesn't counteract hiders, so i don't really agree with your last point.
I'm not saying you counteract hiders, but....I dunno, its just too specific. Why even call it a "Reverse Hider" instead of just a Bodyguard? I mean, my full role name is "P-Body, the Roleblocker Roleblocker", but I don't actually RB anyone.
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I win when:
- If either Chell or GlaDOS are still alive until endgame:
I win when town wins and RS and BS are all dead
- If both Chell and GlaDOS are dead:
I win when either:
- I am alive and RS wins
- Town wins (and I'm either dead or alive, doesn't matter)
So if red scum wins but chell is still alive do you lose?
Yes because I'm still a townie
Basically how it seems to me is that as long as matt is alive you don't count as red scum, but once matt dies you count as scum for the "faction>other factions" and for the calculation of KP so we probably have to lynch you as soon as matt dies.
No.
If Matt dies you guys better lynch the RS (assuming it's only 1 remaining).
Let's assume first that all the BS are dead and there's only 1 RS remaining.
1)If I become a traitor and you guys lynch me, then you still have to lynch 1 RS in the next day.
2)If I become traitor and you guys lynch the RS, since there are no more RS and BS town wins and so do I.
As you can see that 2nd scenario is better for both town and me even if I become traitor.
In (1) I can't win with the RS if I'm lynched. Once I die I can only win with town so I'd be rooting for you guys to lynch the RS.
The only way I could possibly root for the RS is if it's LYLO and me+him can act like RS and win instantly....but then again if that happens and he outs himself we can just lynch him and I can win with town lol. The point is that in a scenario (at day time) where I can win with RS I can also win with town so unless I'm lynched I wouldn't really care about either, and like I said I'd probably side with town since town is my BFF and RS is a big meanie 
Ehmm, well actually maybe if I become a traitor I could act "pro-town" while the RS is still alive, and misslynch someone else so I can win with the RS in a next day LYLO?
Meh, I doubt that's possible since I don't know the RS's identity, so unless I say "Let's lynch Keirathi!" I can even lynch the RS by mistake even if I decide to be "pro-town".
In (2), as soon as you guys lynch the RS town wins the game, with me.
Some of these reasons are why I want to lynch the RS today....so we can just forget about my alt-win con and play the game normally.
Ehmm...I don't know if I count for calculation of KP though...Grey didn't tell me that >_>
Pre-Edit: Oh I think I do, Grey told me "I count as a member of the mafia" once I become traitor...so I guess I count for their numbers and KP? Geez that sucks.
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I dunno, if I ever become traitor your best bet can be just ignore me if you think I'm acting anti-town and lynch the RS by yourselves.
Either way I can win with town no matter what so that can still benefit me (even if I suddenly become a dick and want RS to win).
One point is certain: I'm townie now so unless I'm playing against my win condition by trying to get Mattchew killed so I become traitor so I can win with RS then everything I said is true and comes from a townie-point of view (although is that playing against one's win-con? That's kind of confusing).
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Hopefully there is only 1 RS left so I don't count for their KP thing (2/1 rounded up is still 1)
Anyways, going to uni, good luck people.
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On October 10 2012 11:09 Keirathi wrote:
I...don't think I want to lynch ghost today. Not saying why until he claims though, since I don't want to tell him what I'm thinking so that he knows what to say. But I do have an idea of what his role is (and honestly, I'm curious if I'm right).
So I just remembered I said this. When I posted that, I had gotten it into my head that ghost was a DT. Why? Well, first, there weren't any other non-conditional DT roles in the game. And yea, there are things that keep DTs from getting legit checks, but I find it hard to believe that there isn't an actual DT.
Secondly, look at his play throughout the game. I actually thought that he had checked me n2 and thats why he completely dropped me from his vocabulary come day 3, but even still he has wild swings about who he thinks is scum. And look as his rationale for believing the Draz claim: "I buy Draz's claim for the time being. He's nuts, for sure, but his claim makes sense in a Draz-ish sort of way." That's an awfully small amount of reason to barely mention the person that was leading the leading vote getting. But, he spent all of his (very minimal amount of) time pushing gonzaw.
I'm not sure if there would be a Black DT though, and I'm almost certain that he's not RS. I mean, it could make sense, for sure, for Black to have a DT to try to find RS. But...I dunno, it just feels like a more town-oriented role than things like Hider and Redirector.
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Oh crap. You could be doing another thing. I'm gonna go ahead and put this stuff in thread.
POSSIBILITY 1
Gonzaw tellin' da truf and not planning ANYTHING. See below the break.
POSSIBILITY 2
This is what I didn't want to put in thread, but now I'm thinking it's useful to put EVERYTHING out here just so it's here if I die and Gonzaw is still around. The claim felt fishy, and I was trying to come up with what his claim was trying to accomplish, to see if it felt like a scummy reason or not. What I initially landed on was, "Gonzaw thinks Matt is black scum, thinks he might be lying about bussing. However, Gonzaw doesn't want to waste lynches on black scum. By claiming that he becomes a traitor if Chell/Mattchew dies, Gonzaw is trying to get red scum to use NKs on black scum in Mattchew, THINKING he'll be a traitor. Really, Gonzaw is just keeping the NKs off of townies, by faking a wincon to get red scum solely interested in shooting black scum." I didn't want to write that in case it was true, because it relies on red scum not seeing what's happening.
However, Gonzaw said he wasn't doing anything special, and I'd expect him to be kind of coy about it if that was his plan, and there's also a possibility I just realized with this recent discussion...
POSSIBILITY 3
Gonzaw lying about wincon, and his wincon as Wheatly is to eliminate both GLaDOS and Chell. I haven't played the games, but those are ... the three big players, right? Wheatly as somehow insane makes sense from what I know, but Wheatly as winning with town doesn't make much sense thematically.
Gonzaw is claiming that...he wins with 2/3 of the factions so long as these two players are dead. And he's saying, "Oh town, I love you so much, I would neeeeever want to win with another faction, in such drawn-out detail that it feels fake. So here's ANOTHER possible plan of Gonzaw's - Gonzaw as lyncher/assassin-esque Wheatly role, and trying to meet his win condition.
Gonzaw knows GLaDOS was scum. He knows Chell is town. The blue and red colors are correct. But Gonzaw is actually needs them both dead to win and reign supreme or something. Look at Gonzaw, "Oh I forgot to mention, I asked Grey and he hinted that I would count towards red scum's KP if I flip traitor."
Boom. Gonzaw knows that because he has been adamant about his PM saying Chell, it looks strange for him to want to lynch Matt. He can't. BUT he dangles the possibility he flips scum in front of scum IF they shoot Chell. Really, he's just trying to get Chell killed in this scenario, in order to achieve an alternate wincon --> both chell and glados die, Gonzaw wins.
POSSIBILITY 4
Dis claim be some boolsheet. Gonzaw figures Chell is in the game, drops her name, and is hoping to get her killed while he's actually Wheatly
The third sounds kind of unlikely...except for this.
Gonzaw thinks the teams are 2 and 2. Gonzaw thinks that there's 1 red scum and 1 black scum remaining. We know scum factional KP is mafia/2 rounded up. Gonzaw being cute here:On October 11 2012 05:13 gonzaw wrote:
Ehmm...I don't know if I count for calculation of KP though...Grey didn't tell me that >_>
Pre-Edit: Oh I think I do, Grey told me "I count as a member of the mafia" once I become traitor...so I guess I count for their numbers and KP? Geez that sucks.
IF gonzaw ACTUALLY thought there were 2 red scum, and only 1 red scum remaining, when he becomes traitor they would have 2 players. Whether 1 player or 2 players, red scum would still just have 1 KP.
As in...it's not "geez that sucks," because him turning traitor wouldn't alter KP at all. Him counting for KP, in the setup he thinks exists, wouldn't matter for KP numbers.
Him adding that bit about KP has entirely changed my view of his claim. IF he actually thought 2 red scum left, he wouldn't write "geez that sucks" and add this KP speculation. The KP numbers wouldn't change, it doesn't matter.
The thing is...the KP note doesn't make sense in ANY case with 2 red scum. If he's lyncher/assassin, he can't tempt mafia to kill Mattchew with that because there's just one red mafia and adding gonzaw doesn't boost KP. So Gonzaw isn't really tempting the Mattchew kill he'd need to win.
The fact that Gonzaw is so sure there are 2 red scum, but still drops that note about KP that wouldn't matter in a 2 red scum game, now has me reading his claim as scummy. I think he just overextended with that comment. Either he doesn't think there are 2 red scum and has been lying about that, OR he just...forgot that he thinks there's only 1 red scum left when writing about KP, OR he's red scum himself and there might be 2 or 3 kp or whatever, but he's trying to provide justification for not getting NKed (I know I'm active and still alive, but why would I get killed when mafia knows I can win with them!?).
Can anyone find a way for the KP dangle to make sense in a 2 red scum game?
GAH. HE JUST NINJAED ME BY TALKING ABOUT KP. DOES THAT INVALIDATE ALL THIS?
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On October 11 2012 05:42 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2012 11:09 Keirathi wrote:
I...don't think I want to lynch ghost today. Not saying why until he claims though, since I don't want to tell him what I'm thinking so that he knows what to say. But I do have an idea of what his role is (and honestly, I'm curious if I'm right).
So I just remembered I said this. When I posted that, I had gotten it into my head that ghost was a DT. Why? Well, first, there weren't any other non-conditional DT roles in the game. And yea, there are things that keep DTs from getting legit checks, but I find it hard to believe that there isn't an actual DT. Secondly, look at his play throughout the game. I actually thought that he had checked me n2 and thats why he completely dropped me from his vocabulary come day 3, but even still he has wild swings about who he thinks is scum. And look as his rationale for believing the Draz claim: "I buy Draz's claim for the time being. He's nuts, for sure, but his claim makes sense in a Draz-ish sort of way." That's an awfully small amount of reason to barely mention the person that was leading the leading vote getting. But, he spent all of his (very minimal amount of) time pushing gonzaw. I'm not sure if there would be a Black DT though, and I'm almost certain that he's not RS. I mean, it could make sense, for sure, for Black to have a DT to try to find RS. But...I dunno, it just feels like a more town-oriented role than things like Hider and Redirector.
If black has no factional KP, I could see a black DT making more sense. If their KP is so limited, they want to make sure they use it on red scum and not townies, because red will be killing off townies for them and they don't want to hasten things up to a situation where it's just red v. black and red has more solid KP.
A black DT gives them a way to focus their KP if they can find someone. Heck, a black DT that swaps around would give them an opprtunity to get Crossfire into melee range in order to kill a particular target.
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if ghost is telling the truth, someone between me, keirathi, gonzaw, austin and snb are the remaining scum
i have a strong feeling gonzaw is telling the truth leaving keirathi snb and austin left.
i could see keirathi snb as black, and austin as red.
that being said we can only do this if we KNOW ghost is telling the truth. Also, there is the off-chance that JH or hiro is a godfather type, but that seems doubtful.
i think we should lynch ghost to validate his claim,
in the event ghost is telling the truth, we are left with 7 players likely 5/4/3 town, 1/2 black, 1/2 red. at worst it ends up 3/2/2 with me dead, but then you just lynch austin, keirath, snb, and gonzaw.
if 1 of the ghost checks dies, its me gonzaw + jh/hiro lynching into almost guaranteed scum
if ghost flips scum, yay!
##vote ghost_403
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Sorry lied after I saw that post I had to stay >_>
My PM doesn't say Chell it says Chell (I just put it blue to make my post pretty)
Also did you think that maybe I didn't think that much before posting? As soon as I realized I count for mafia's KP I thought it sucked because well...it does.
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We really need to know if ghost is CERTAIN as to who he checked last night mattchew.
If Hiro and Keirathi were bussed, thenOn October 10 2012 23:56 ghost_403 wrote:
Night 3, I guess I stayed where I was at and checked Keirathi.
It makes it sound like he actually got a check on Keirathi, which wouldn't have happened if you'd bussed them, which means either he or you is lying.
If he doesn't know who the check is on...then you guys could be truthful, but it seems quite off to get a DT check on a person and not know who you checked.
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On October 11 2012 05:54 gonzaw wrote:
Sorry lied after I saw that post I had to stay >_>
My PM doesn't say Chell it says Chell (I just put it blue to make my post pretty)
Also did you think that maybe I didn't think that much before posting? As soon as I realized I count for mafia's KP I thought it sucked because well...it does.
Same line as everyone is going to give you. I read Liar Game. I think that you can be quite crafty and plan-ny as scum. You might not think much before posting, but you might also be planning nastiness.
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fuck it. if ghost isn't going to answer for the stuff that doesn't make sense, I'll just lynch him.
##Vote ghost_403
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stepping out for an hour. I'll be back before the deadline.
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EPT
