|
On October 10 2012 10:43 Keirathi wrote:
Well, that quote from him feels really weird when I read back through his filter.
It almost feels like it had to have been serving some specific purpose. There are 3 things he said that seem weird and don't fit with basically any of the rest of his comments: 1) Hair on Fire 2) 8s look like 3s when you're hungry 3) Now to the kitchen!
Like, they all feel like breadcrumbs to me, but what is he crumbing?
They DO feel really weird. I figured the hair on fire thing meant he'd been crazy busy, but by this point his recent filter is like half crumbs.
|
Hey....I had a thought, let's see where it goes:
What if Jingle is an Aperture Science Framer?.
He can choose what check/report can come from a player he chooses.
On N1 he chose Nisani and made it so he visited Mementos (if there is a framer role that wanted to frame Nisani it has to be from RS since BS didn't know Mementos would get killed due to their lack of factional KP and I think almost any KP whasoever), which explains my report.
Now, he claims he's "bulletproof guy that always visits austin at night to hide". He claimed this after I claimed tracker. If he's RS, he knows that I can track him at night now (and be un-RBeable and maybe bulletproof if Kei/S&B target me), so he could get instantly caught. To survive my reports he'd need to not shoot at night....which would be weird and still scummy if I say I'm going to track him.
Therefore he claimed a role that only visits austin at night and if I see him visit austin at night it "confirms" him as town if we believe what he told us...
...but what if he frames himself every night from now on and makes any track report from him say he visited austin? Even if he chooses to shoot someone unrelated at night (maybe Keirathi for instance), my track report will say he visited austin, therefore "confirming" his role, and of course justifying him living so long at night (i.e scum not killing him) since "scum wouldn't shoot a bulletproof hider".
Didn't really have a scum read on Jingle but fuck scumreads right now they didn't do me any good until now. Let's speculate!
What do you guys think of this possibility?
Granted austin could do something similar with a framer ability (i.e frame himself so he visits an "unrelated" target, someone different than who he shoots).
Meh, seems improbable that a framer can frame himself, but really...what other explanation could there be for my N1 report and the lack of "scummy" claims so far? (i.e claims that can be refuted, etc)
|
I don't really like the fact that he never mentioned me at all when he came here and claimed and shit (it would certainly be a huge deal for him, since from his POV it's scum fake-claiming to confuse town and create chaos).
I even colored my post with **** blue asterisks and shit, it was impossible to miss even if he skimmed the thread.
|
On October 10 2012 10:55 gonzaw wrote:How about we let him claim that lol Anyways why do you guys even bother breadcrumbing your role? Just don't breadcrumb anything and claim you are an anti-town traitor. You'll be instantly considered confirmed town.... ...although seriously I didn't think everybody would believe my claim >_> I guess I didn't really got my hopes up with you guys :/
Anyways...yeah I think we should have paid more attention to the player list  Dammit austin! That was YOUR job!!! > : ( (lol jk  ) Meh...this game is so weird, it feels like if there were no remaining scum or something. I guess we can NL today and maybe use our abilities (mine and Matt's for instance) to determine the veracity of other people's claims?
I don't like the idea of no lynching. At the very least, I'd like to lynch ghost.
He went from relatively inactive early to just...not doing ANYTHING after crossfire flipped. I like the connections in his and Crossfire's filter to put him at black scum. Being black scum fits his activity post-crossfire flip - he needs to wait things out, maybe has no KP, and knows that he's not the preferred target of town and maybe not the preferred target of red scum (since he's not really threatening them).
Heck, if he's red scum the best play is the same thing. He kind of looks like black scum, his participation fits the black scum mold, so he just sits back and pretends to be black scum. Only black scum would know that he's not with them, and so they'd be the only ones to call him out (Except fo me).
At the very least, if we're not going to get ANYTHING out of alive ghost, I'd like to see his actual role when he flips and see if it sheds any light on the claims that came out today and whether anyone is lying.
|
On October 10 2012 10:55 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways why do you guys even bother breadcrumbing your role? Just don't breadcrumb anything and claim you are an anti-town traitor. You'll be instantly considered confirmed town....
...although seriously I didn't think everybody would believe my claim >_>
I guess I didn't really got my hopes up with you guys :/
I haven't breadcrumbed my role at all
Also, I'm not entirely convinced by your claim. Some key things stick out to me: how much you talked about how hard it would be for you to fake claim as scum, and the way you kept putting your claim of (okay i'm going to claim, wait no i'm not, well maybe i'll claim later, but i have a plan now, etcetc). I will say that your claim, if fake, took an extreme amount of effort, which makes it pretty unlikely, but I haven't completely ruled it out yet. Especially if you+matt are somehow a scum-team and coordinated the Chell/Traitor thing.
|
Although I'm still waiting on Hiro's explanations for his night actions...
...and waiting for Mattchew's case on Hiro
...and waiting for ghost
...fuck why is everybody so slow in this game?
|
I...don't think I want to lynch ghost today. Not saying why until he claims though, since I don't want to tell him what I'm thinking so that he knows what to say. But I do have an idea of what his role is (and honestly, I'm curious if I'm right).
Honestly, my head keeps telling me that we should lynch JH today. It can't be a coincidence that he claimed Hider, and S&B's role specifically calls him an Anti-Hider when my calls me an Anti-Roleblocker.
|
On October 10 2012 11:03 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2012 10:55 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways why do you guys even bother breadcrumbing your role? Just don't breadcrumb anything and claim you are an anti-town traitor. You'll be instantly considered confirmed town....
...although seriously I didn't think everybody would believe my claim >_>
I guess I didn't really got my hopes up with you guys :/
I haven't breadcrumbed my role at all Also, I'm not entirely convinced by your claim. Some key things stick out to me: how much you talked about how hard it would be for you to fake claim as scum, and the way you kept putting your claim of (okay i'm going to claim, wait no i'm not, well maybe i'll claim later, but i have a plan now, etcetc). I will say that your claim, if fake, took an extreme amount of effort, which makes it pretty unlikely, but I haven't completely ruled it out yet. Especially if you+matt are somehow a scum-team and coordinated the Chell/Traitor thing.
If I did that as scum then I'd be very desperately for a win and I'd be spending 23 hours a day in this game lurking and planning and shit.
...in that case I'd beg you to make me win this game at least out of pity
That includes believing my claim....so please believe my claim even out of pity if I'm scum!!
On October 10 2012 11:02 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2012 10:55 gonzaw wrote:How about we let him claim that lol Anyways why do you guys even bother breadcrumbing your role? Just don't breadcrumb anything and claim you are an anti-town traitor. You'll be instantly considered confirmed town.... ...although seriously I didn't think everybody would believe my claim >_> I guess I didn't really got my hopes up with you guys :/
Anyways...yeah I think we should have paid more attention to the player list Dammit austin! That was YOUR job!!! > : ( (lol jk ) Meh...this game is so weird, it feels like if there were no remaining scum or something. I guess we can NL today and maybe use our abilities (mine and Matt's for instance) to determine the veracity of other people's claims? I don't like the idea of no lynching. At the very least, I'd like to lynch ghost. He went from relatively inactive early to just...not doing ANYTHING after crossfire flipped. I like the connections in his and Crossfire's filter to put him at black scum. Being black scum fits his activity post-crossfire flip - he needs to wait things out, maybe has no KP, and knows that he's not the preferred target of town and maybe not the preferred target of red scum (since he's not really threatening them). Heck, if he's red scum the best play is the same thing. He kind of looks like black scum, his participation fits the black scum mold, so he just sits back and pretends to be black scum. Only black scum would know that he's not with them, and so they'd be the only ones to call him out (Except fo me). At the very least, if we're not going to get ANYTHING out of alive ghost, I'd like to see his actual role when he flips and see if it sheds any light on the claims that came out today and whether anyone is lying.
It's very ironic but here it goes: What if there are more scum or something and we end up losing with another misslynch?
You know, you guys where the ones buggering me so much about there being a bajillion scum remaining...which by your estimations this would be LYLO/MYLO of sorts, which means we can't really afford a misslynch.
Joking aside (there are no 3-3 scum teams), maybe you are right. He has to come and vote or be modkilled. If he as much as votes without claiming and explaining his N2 action and shit he gets insta-lynched (by policy at least), so this issue will be solved today, one way or the other.
However, if my previous conclusion is correct ghost is not the position swapper who is scum and is not RS. If he's BS then the RS would be the position swapper...which means the RS can't be Framer which means my N1 report goes unexplained. Contradiction perhaps...? So that makes him being BS unlikely.
Maybe I just utterly failed with my conclusion though.
Also: What do you guys think about that Jingle speculation?
|
On October 10 2012 11:10 gonzaw wrote:
Also: What do you guys think about that Jingle speculation?
That you're completely reaching and it has 0 basis in fact. Just randomly throwing out a theory with 0 evidence to back it up. What I mean is, nothing in your explanation explained why the framer would be JingleHell. His name was just tacked on there.
|
I think JH's claim is BS. I just can't quite figure out WHY except that he can be killed in some way or another and is hiding that.
But seriously, dat mattchew vote. The only POSSIBLE way he wrote that as scum is if he's on the same team as mattchew and was trying to distance himself by making such a weird accusation. And I don't buy that. I do not want to lynch JH.
Also, snb's claim was "reverse hider" and not "anti-hider." If that's his actual wording, it's splitting hairs, but it's no guarantee.
|
I really don't understand your "There's no way scum wrote that" thing about JH. It's never made sense to me, but I haven't had any real reason to be suspicious of him so I haven't questioned it. Maybe you could explain it, because it basically sounded like "there's no way scum would make that bad of a case", which I entirely disagree with.
|
I already explained how I decided my actions, gonzaw - go back and read.
why do you think jingle is lying about his claim austin? all I see about that from you is you saying why his role isn't imbalanced if not town - you don't really explain why you think he's lying.
|
On October 10 2012 11:13 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2012 11:10 gonzaw wrote:
Also: What do you guys think about that Jingle speculation?
That you're completely reaching and it has 0 basis in fact. Just randomly throwing out a theory with 0 evidence to back it up. What I mean is, nothing in your explanation explained why the framer would be JingleHell. His name was just tacked on there.
Someone fake-claimed, that's a fact (if we assume there's at least 1 RS and 1 BS left...even if ghost is one of them).
Who is it? Well, we can check claims.
If there's a claim that seems bullshit then it's probably a fake-claim and the guy is scum (again, 0 scumhunting here...but at least my head doesn't hurt by thinking about it).
Now, if you can say "JH's claim is BS" without any other "evidence", then I guess I might as well provide circumstantial evidence of that by explaining my N1 report and his motivation for claiming what he did as scum.
Again....try to find the fake-claim between all these claims and use it to explain everything that happened this game. It's hard isn't it?
My "theory with 0 evidence" is (as far as I believe) the best one (well actually the one I bothered thinking about and sprouted into my head) that can explain most of the shit that happened this game and why the scum that fake-claimed fake-claimed what he did.
It's not "evidence" at all...but again, what's the alternative?
Feel free to post evidence against it (like Jingle posting something and it contradicting what I said) and discuss it.
Also it kind of felt like a "Omg it all makes sense!" moment for me, even though I had no evidence.
Just like in those Phoenix Wright games.
|
On October 10 2012 11:22 HiroPro wrote:
I already explained how I decided my actions, gonzaw - go back and read.
why do you think jingle is lying about his claim austin? all I see about that from you is you saying why his role isn't imbalanced if not town - you don't really explain why you think he's lying.
Yeah my bad I forgot about it.
|
So gonzaw, answer me this:
If there is this framer than can frame himself to show up as visiting a specific target (ie, JH visiting austin), what stops Hiro or me, or you from being that framer? Lets play devil's advocate and say Hiro says that he is going to use his role on ghost. So you track Hiro, and he does in fact visit ghost. Now, why can't he be the framer? Why does it have to be Jingle?
That's the point I'm trying to make.
|
On October 10 2012 11:16 Keirathi wrote:
I really don't understand your "There's no way scum wrote that" thing about JH. It's never made sense to me, but I haven't had any real reason to be suspicious of him so I haven't questioned it. Maybe you could explain it, because it basically sounded like "there's no way scum would make that bad of a case", which I entirely disagree with.
It's not "there's no way scum would make that bad of a case."
Basically...I don't see any angle there for scum to make that case, at that time, in the way that JH did.
He targeted a player who was pushing iamperfection (maybe someone disagrees with me here, but I felt like Mattchew was pushing iamperfection's lynch and drumming up support)
But he did so by misrepresenting what Mattchew was doing at the time (again, you may disagree)
And that misrepresentation was the FOCAL POINT of his case - Look at matt not contributing, always asking others for reads, when really matt was trying to get votes on iamperfection, not just sheepishly asking for reads (see above parentheticals)
If JH is scum, he's calling massive attention to himself and not getting any votes with that case. Doesn't feel like there's any reason to draw massive attention to yourself as scum with no benefit. So I can't see his mattchew case/vote as a scummy case - it doesn't accomplish anything that scum wants to accomplish AND it makes him look weird.
You can argue it's a bus, but then again, if he's bussing, he needs mattchew to get lynched. He needs votes. Mattchew could drop some scummy lines, or could mention that a certain post looks really odd when contrasted to x game, and JH could build a legitimate case off that. But as a bus, JH's case/vote makes no sense because it got no traction (see parentheticals). A bus that won't get any votes, won't get mattchew lynched, won't get you any town cred, is a bunch of effort to actively do NOTHING.
It MIGHT make sense if it's not a bus, intended to get votes, but were just intended to create distance between JH and mattchew. Now you put yourselves at odds, but not in a way that puts votes on matt, and doesn't make JH a giant lynch target either. However, if that's his plan...why does he tunnel Gonzaw the entire rest of the game? Why not keep that distance from mattchew?
This is where I could just barely, barely find some reason - if they're both black scum and trying to create distance, then the plan is ruined on iamperfection's flip. They wouldn't know Iamperfection was red, so wouldn't have known mattchew would come off looking really town, and now they're worried about JH distancing himself from someone who looks very town. So they call the whole thing off. That feels too improbable though, so I'm left with it just not making sense as a case from scum OR a bus.
At the time of the initial case, didn't know black scum could be a factor here. But even then, I can't find a way for that to make any kind of sense as a scum play except the distancing, and that's too far out there. If JH is scum, this is some next next next level crap.
|
On October 10 2012 11:22 HiroPro wrote:
I already explained how I decided my actions, gonzaw - go back and read.
why do you think jingle is lying about his claim austin? all I see about that from you is you saying why his role isn't imbalanced if not town - you don't really explain why you think he's lying.
He's claiming...bulletproof townie who always visits some guy.
(1) Most of these roles feel like normal roles, or two normal roles mushed together, or a small twist on a normal role. JH is basically claiming a no-downside hider, so long as the guy below him is alive. Yes, that's a downside, but not in the way that hiders have a downside.
(2) When poked, JH gives this massive explanation for why his role, as he claimed, has to be town.
(3) That explanation doesn't hold up AT ALL.
It's like he was overcompensating. He could have said, "I dunno, I'm town and this is my role." Instead, he gives a whole spiel about why he CAN'T be scum, but only addresses why he can't be black scum, and even that doesn't hold water. Like...it's directly contradicted by what we've seen IN THIS GAME about NKs not connecting.
Why go through that whole song and dance if he's not hiding something and overcompensating for that? But because of the mattchew case/vote, see above, he can't be not-townie in my mind, so he's gotta be hiding something a townie would want to hide - that he's somehow vulnerable.
I don't want any actual vulnerability in thread, but I don't buy "bulletproof townie" with the sole weakness that if I die, he can die.
This all sounds really dumb, but I've been confident every time I've gotten this feeling. I'm in obs chat of Newbie XVI (I think is the right number) offering to take sloppy seconds on sucking a female player's metaphorical dick if I'm wrong. It was a different route to the same "That person can't be scum" feeling," but ended in the same super-strong town read.
|
On October 10 2012 11:30 Keirathi wrote:
So gonzaw, answer me this:
If there is this framer than can frame himself to show up as visiting a specific target (ie, JH visiting austin), what stops Hiro or me, or you from being that framer? Lets play devil's advocate and say Hiro says that he is going to use his role on ghost. So you track Hiro, and he does in fact visit ghost. Now, why can't he be the framer? Why does it have to be Jingle?
That's the point I'm trying to make.
Well, you because, again if you were RS you wouldn't really have claimed P-Body with S&B (unless you are RS buddies). Also you are pretty town by now. Also all the shit I explained in that other post in D2 or D3 I think (about flavour and balance and shit).
For instance it's very difficult for me to believe a real P-Body claim would be scum, instead of any of these "Hero of the night! Super Science extra bacon and cheese!" claims people are having being fake (with one of them being fake and the guy actually being "G-Man" or "Aperture Science NeuroToxin Manufacturer" or some shit).
Hiro because he as scum had to fake-claim those "I redirect my target" reports which can fuck him up in the ass very hard if he fucks it (if his claim is not consistent with something that happened, for instance someone doing something on Hiro and not being redirected to someone else).
...meh it's possible, I don't remember when Hiro claimed (I think he claimed before Jingle? And ghost of course). He could have easily tried to get an "easier" fake-claim to claim as scum.
I'm mostly looking at austin's and JH's claims which are too "safe", don't add anything new to this discussion (which would be pretty convenient as scum to do) and seem defensive of them. I.e it can't be verified and it "justifies" them doing any weird shit (like austin visiting someone random at night).
Like I said austin could have used it as well....but meh austin at least is here talking (although I always fall for that) and he didn't claim "bulletproof" at least.
If JH is hiding something like austin said it'd be good to claim.
@austin: I don't really take JH's Matt vote into account. If he's scum he's doing crazy shit to create chaos and maybe stop people paying attention to iam and then pass it off as "good ol' crazy town JingleHell". If he's town he's just nuts like always.
What made me wary about him being scum was basically the difference in play between here and his game as scum. Not that much difference in play (like Hiro's play here and in RockBand mafia for instance), but it was kind of subtle (I already explained it before).
Right now I'd be willing to discard any read I have (except maybe the town read on keirathi) since (spoilers) I'm almost always wrong with reads and they fuck up my head and I start babbling and making weird theories and playing like shit and then I die/get lynched and everything goes to hell.
Right now I want everybody to chime in and just find the motherfucking scum any way possible. Either by comparing claims, or logically determine contradictions in claims and shit, or just scumhunting and shit.
I dunno, I'll reread everybody once we figured out this "claiming" shit and there's something serious going on.
You guys scumhunt all you want though, I'll keep going with my theories until ghost claims and Jingle comes and Matt posts something and shit
Hey Hiro, which of these claims do you think is fake? Which one do you believe? How do they relate with the previous reads you had on everybody?
|
It's easy, like I said: someone fake-claimed already.
Who?
Until ghost cc's Matt he's like confirmed non-RS (and maybe confirmed town, but just taking flavour into account and maybe stuff from my role PM)
Can we still assume Kei and S&B are town? I'll still bet Kei is town so the questions boils to S&B basically.
If so, it leaves austin/Kei/Hiro/ghost for remaining scum, and at least 1 scum in austin/Jingle/Hiro if we have at least 1 RS and 1 BS remaining.
So, based on this, who do you guys think is the guy fake-claiming from austin/Jingle/Hiro? Let's have some fun discussing until ghost comes (and maybe cc's Chell or something, could happen). If you think someone else (Matt/S&B) is fake-claiming or claiming real role as scum shoot.
|
Oh yeah and me, add me there somewhere if you want.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
