EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIV
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thrawn2112
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On August 13 2012 09:05 Solarsail wrote: /in About how many times per day is one expected to post? from what i've read in the other games your post count is something everyone really pays attention to | ||
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If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK. Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. | ||
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On August 15 2012 09:59 Shady Sands wrote: Why are you so worried about the SK? SK is a bigger threat to scum than to town. I am not really worried, but am trying to learn from other people's experiences if there is any reason to worry. I thought I was pretty clear that I was undecided on the importance of SK, and that if SK is unimportant in D1 it's a complete waste of time to worry about it. My current opinion is that it is something to worry about, but not on D1. Therefore I'm not going to continue posting about it until something happens along the lines of way too many unexplained town deaths. | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:35 Shady Sands wrote: What's even more interesting that Solarsail didn't even try to defend himself from this accusation: Instead, he answered with sarcasm and an OMGUS vote. Sorry for the bother, but could you describe what OMGUS means? It's one of the several expressions I see used in the mafia forums of which I have no idea what they mean. | ||
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wow thanks, amazing link | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:37 Shady Sands wrote: Quick question: If you've never played with Solarsail before, how would you know whether his points are less or more articulate than they could be? Seconding your point on the profanities though. I wouldn't know if they are more or less articulate than however he may have been in previous games, but for this purpose of this game it's making his posts a little unclear. Unclear could just mean unclear OR mafia, but the end result is that I pay more attention to his posts. | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:55 Solarsail wrote: Hey Shady this guy is VERY SUSPICIOUS for saying exactly the same as me and I think you should get right on questioning him into the ground. What did you two say that was "exactly the same?" | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:35 Shady Sands wrote: What's even more interesting that Solarsail didn't even try to defend himself from this accusation: Instead, he answered with sarcasm and an OMGUS vote. Most of the discussion right now is about solarsail. I don't think there's anything wrong with this because so far his posts haven't seemed very useful but we have still yet to hear from several players. He could easily be town and just reacting to everyone immediately jumping on his case as soon as the game starts. In that case it would be easy for the mafia players to roll in later and pile more suspicion on solar and therefore away from themselves. As far as I could see most of the drama was based on your post asking why he is devoting his first post to appearing as town rather than use it to scumhunt. I think it's worthwhile pointing out that at the time of his original posting there were only a few D1 posts so far and not much to scumhunt on. I think right now we are still in a waiting game, people that haven't spoken up yet need to! | ||
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Still waiting for several people to post up... I'm gonna take a break for an hour or so and I will join back in once more people have posted. | ||
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obviously, but in the future maybe? | ||
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On August 15 2012 11:59 YourHarry wrote: @Z-boson, posting filters is pretty easy. Why not. @Shady Sands. You are accusing Solarsail of being hostile? You think scums are more likely to respond with hostility? Thrawn on the other hand is busy posting fluffs and WIFOM statement like "It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case." ##Vote Thrawn My last post might have seemed to be quite a stretch, but I am still of the opinion that solar's posts are somewhat likely to be emotional overreactions rather than scummy. Based on that opinion it's not a stretch to be suspicious of shady's motives and thus I made that post. All that being said, the more solar posts the more wary I am of him. All of his posts are sarcastic, attempts at humor, or name calling. Solar, you really need to make your posts more about content than your emotions so that if you are truly town we will be able to get a better read on you. Shady, the main focus of your attention on solar is based on this: Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. I'm not sure I'm getting why you think this is scummy, could you explain? His posts since that point are what caused me to be suspicious of him, but I never quite understood the reasoning behind your initial interrogation. | ||
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On August 15 2012 12:19 Shady Sands wrote: Not to repeat myself, but here's the reasoning: And it didn't make sense to me. Why would Solar make this post if he's town? It's not pro-town to post on which style a scum might or might be playing. Then I read his post in context of the first post that stutters made, and it seemed like Solar is trying to soft accuse stutters--because stutters post was short, and didn't hold any information that disagrees with the general direction (as telling people to read a guide is about as plain as someone can get.) The second possibility here, aside from soft-accusing stutters, is that Solar is trying to look participatory. He states this himself, later. Why would a townie try to look participatory from his first post onwards? No one has accused Solar of anything yet, so why the desire to look like he's contributing (as opposed to actually saying something of substance instead of guessing at what the scum must be feeling?) Both these possibilities lead to a scum Solarsail. OK, I understand your case now. Stutters made his very first post of the game, which was somewhat short and linked to a post giving advice on d1 scumhunting, advice that is generally held to be useful. Solar then made a post saying that yeah, policy is cool, but we should be more more careful, and then he said to watch out for short posts that go along with the current majority opinion. Therefore your case is that solar was trying to soft accuse stutters based off the post that stutters had just made. I definitely see the argument now, and seeing as I was previously suspicious of solar because of his follow up posts, it leads me to think I should be even more suspicious of him now. However I didnt see solar's soft accusation as a possiblity until you pointed it out after the fact, and suspicion of a soft accusation is hardly good evidence that he should be lynched especially when there has been so little discussion so far so I am not sold on your case against him. On August 15 2012 12:24 YourHarry wrote: Never mind. I am confident Solarsail is town. Move on. ##Unvote That came out of nowhere.... please explain? | ||
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On August 15 2012 15:18 Golbat wrote: So far, I think that the scummiest person i've seen is thrawn. He's not really said much of substance, which is of course understandable being so early in the game, but his fixation on making sure people know there could be an SK in the game is a little bit strange. Is this something I need to defend myself on? I am not sober right now so I don't think I could type a clear response till I wake up. Going to sleep now, I hope to wake up and see some more posts. | ||
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On August 15 2012 20:19 DarthPunk wrote: I am not framing you for things you haven't done. Why such a melodramatic Defense? You case was bad, because it was based on an assumption and the convoluted scum motivation you presented alongside that assumption. It was a stretch because the assumption you made was a stretch. Your cases bring very little to the table, and unlike XXII you are not confirmed town and cannot get away with such questionable arguments. You explicitly stated you were dropping the cases on them for now. Why not just move on without saying anything? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- With that being said. I strongly encourage everyone to read Your Harry's Filter It is so ridiculous that I feel bad I didn't jump on it sooner. @YOUR HARRY acting like you have some sort of outside information to make a PANTS ON HEAD series of posts is very suspicious and unless you have a rock solid excuse for what your filter currently consists of I have a very large; FoS## Your Harry It is 100% a good idea to reveal this information right now. It was this post that most confused me out of all of harry's. On August 15 2012 14:17 YourHarry wrote: Mkfuba, good question! But not quite correct, I checked my PM before I posted. But you are in the right ball park. But let's forget everything I said about Solar. I will re-evaluate when more people post. After re-reading this thread, the 'right ball park' comment immediately caused me to start suspecting harry. It just doesnt seem like something somebody who is town would want to say. It looks like you are trying hint at something without ever saying it, but wouldn't a town player assume that any hints they drop intended for town players might also be picked up on by scum? What ball park are we talking about and why did you say mkfuba's question was a good question? On August 15 2012 12:09 YourHarry wrote: Did we just catch 2 scums?? On August 15 2012 12:09 YourHarry wrote: Shady, don't leave us. Let's find the third scum. These posts struck me as a little strange. YH is showing an eagerness, in fact the most eagerness out of anyone, to push a conclusion towards whatever reads (of solar and myself) have been presented, reads which so far people have found weak and/or unsubstantiated. | ||
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A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? | ||
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On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS Archrun As per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS Archrun Archrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? | ||
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On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. What I got from that quote is that ochrow thinks NH could be town. The opening statement of that quote you referenced was "So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him" followed by "he too is giving off a town feel." I don't understand if you are saying Ochrow has a town or scum read on NH. | ||
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So to clarify since you didnt actually answer the question, were you saying that ochrow had a town or a scum read on yourharry? The "as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak" quote is a little ambiguous but I understood it as ochrow being suspicious of shady for shady focusing on solar's first post, but having nothing else to go on he was just leaving it at that, suspicion. What you have accused him of implying is a stretch. I have gone through ochrow's filter and can't a case of him keeping secrets about his read on solar. Could you find/quote/explain that one too? I do not think your case against Ochrow is very convincing and I believe that you are reading too much into his posts. | ||
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On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. Ochrow wasn't saying that he had a secret read, he was saying that yourharry claimed to have a secret read on solar, which is here: On August 15 2012 12:24 YourHarry wrote: Never mind. I am confident Solarsail is town. Move on. ##Unvote and here: On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote: Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now. I think you misquoted Ochrow, that "secret read" statement wasn't about himself. | ||
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That question was more for my sake than mkfuba's. Shady made some posts accusing yourharry, which was the immediate topic of discussion. I wrote out my view on that topic, since it was the one that had everyone's attention. I didnt care as much as you think I did if mkfuba agreed with my post, but his reasoning for/against my position was what I was trying to learn. Knowing exactly the reasons why a player reads another player as town/scum can give you huge insight into how everyone else is thinking. There are several times in this game where someone has described their read and I have questioned them to find out if their read was weak, strong, or had ulterior motives. Also it seems to me that confirming somebody is town isn't a waste of time, it will give you new information you didn't have before and you will have a narrower list of who potential scum could be. While it isn't the most important part of the game it isn't useless like you have described. Concerning scumhunting: I really think that everyone should confirm an approval of the lurker policy. The main purpose of the policy is to encourage everyone to raise their post count which will make the town's job easier. That's not saying that we all will agree to lynch the player with the lowest post count, but that if there are not any other areas of investigation we will focus on lurkers. I think we're at a point where not much has been accomplished, and people have been making weak reads. At some point which I think is now, we need to start applying pressure on the lurkers. In my previous post I gave reasons as to why I am focusing on Archrun. | ||
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On August 16 2012 12:53 YourHarry wrote: FOS Golbat Jyhut Stutters and Archrun for lurking. Please do share your current reads. This more than anything else is what I want to see next in this thread. I would also like to know what their reads were on the earlier cases in addition to their current read. If you are one of those players, you really need to contribute more to the discussion. You're town or you're scum, but either way you're creating more ambiguity and suspicion among the group by not posting. | ||
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On August 16 2012 14:17 Ochrow wrote: I just can't wrap my head around the reason for Jhuyt to lie. After seeing Archrun's post I also did a check on solar's post history, and the impression I got was the exact opposite of Jhuyt's. (sorry solar, I think we will all be going through your post history now) It does appear that Jhuyt lied about solar's post history. Does anyone think this is important? Jhuyt, why did you say that solar was acting 'normal' according to his post history if he wasn't? | ||
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On August 16 2012 15:11 Solarsail wrote: I will be back in four hours with a full post but I want to address two things 1. I wasn't suspicious of Jhuyt because there was so little to work with. I have him down as a near-lurker and hence '?' for now. 2. Jhuyt and I have a specific history in a specific thread involving some deleted posts. It's understandable him and him alone would say that. Point 1: You were suspicious of me defending you, but not of jhuyt for defending you? Looking back on what Jhuyt and i said about you, I was the one who expressed more suspicion of you. Yes, I did say that your behavior could be explained by you being town but playing extremely, extremely poorly. What you said is that your first few posts were troll posts, and that is correct if you are town or scum. Both what I said and what you claimed are both along the lines of "solar's first posts are town posts, but they are very unorthodox town posts." This is not dissimilar to things many others said. I also said that because of your posting style I was definitely most suspicious of you at that point in time, just for the reason of it being an odd posting style. Yet you claim that I was a target for being more defensive of you when I clearly said I was suspicious of you while jhyut did not? When you came clean about your troll posts, I as well as the majority vocal opinion at that time believed you. Now that I think back on it, I am not convinced that your early game facade is pro-town behavior. You say you wanted to get discussion going and to get reactions from players, and while that did happen, everyone became sidetracked on the argument between you and shady. That eventually gave way to a few other arguments that were either decided to be weak reads, or the outcome is still very ambiguous. 1: Why would a town player troll his first few posts? You say it is to generate discussion and make reads on people, but these are reads that (if you are town) only you will be able to make unless you can convince everyone else to believe you. 2: Why would a scum troll his first few posts? The answer to that has been made clearly obvious by the first 24 hrs worth of posts in this thread. What you did, regardless of it being pro town or anti town, in my opinion ended up having an anti town effect. If something has an anti-town effect, the easiest and simplest solution is that it was directed by someone who has anti-town motives. Point 2: That would be an acceptable answer, except that there is absolutely a 0% chance of anyone being able to fact check it. I'm still trying to figure out if there is any reasonable way for me to decide whether or not you're telling the truth about you and jhuyt's past. I am not yet suspicious of you being scum, mostly because of the strong pro-town vibe I initially got from reading your post-troll posts, but I do think that there are some holes in your arguments which I would like you to explain. | ||
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On August 16 2012 11:24 Shady Sands wrote: EBWOP: Lead with a shortlist, and end with a single candidate. I keep refreshing hoping to see your list has been posted... I think that we are very quickly coming upon the end of D1 and it's time to seriously start discussing lynch candidates. As for my read, I'm still in discussion with solar over what I think are holes in his latest posts, so as soon as he gives a response to my concerns I will present my lynch candidate. If solar responds in the next hour or so I will be able to post afterwards, but if that doesnt happen I will post first thing after I wake up. Possibly going to sleep for the night, but I will keep an eye on this thread for about an hour. My lynch candidate post might come within that time, but expect it after I wake up in 8 or so hours. | ||
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This clears up the problem I had with solar's most recent post, as it confirms that jhuyt would have a good motivation for saying what he said about solar's past behaivor, and it gives an explanation as why solar would suspect someone else (myself) instead of jhuyt for defending him. Still, I do not think that solar's opening posts were effectively pro-town, even if he had good intentions. A few posts ago I was targeting Archrun because of his low post count (3 at the time, now 4) and worthless posts. Myself and a few others all asked for Archrun, as well as the other lurkers to come in and give their case reads on the established cases. Afterwards, Archrun made a post where the entirety of his argument is based on his assertion that Jhuyt lied about solar's post history. I did a quick search of solar's posts but wasnt able to find anything to suggest that he is usually overly emotional, and so I also started to be suspicious of solar. However, as you can see from my opening statement, I have found additional information that supports Jhuyt's statement. FOS ARCHRUN Archrun, I have given a good explanation as to why your case against solar and jhuyt is bad, are there reasons other than Jhuyt's "lie" that cause you to be suspicious of them? If not, then who would be your lynch candidate instead? Also, we still havent heard enough from gobalt or stutters . | ||
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 I'm getting worried that if I go to sleep at this point I will wake up too late to participate in the lynch discussion. | ||
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On August 16 2012 19:27 thrawn2112 wrote: I did some fact checking, and I was able to find the posts between solar and jhuyt that solar mentioned earlier. They happened in the My Little Pony thread on April 4th 2012. My suspicion of Archrun was independent of Ochrow's orignal post. When I began focusing on Archrun, there were 4 people who had posted 4 times or less. I checked each of their filters and Archrun was the only one who had not given an opinion on anything concerning scum reads or even suspicions of scum. His posts contained the least amount of useful information so he seemed like the 1st lurker I needed to pressure. I even posted this reasoning when I originally called him out the first time. As for your claims that ochrow and I are scum working together.....well I have no defense to that. If I am town, that is not a falsifiable accusation. Archrun, what did Gobalt ever say to me? Are you talking about his post 6 hours after the game started, when only a few people had posted so far, where he says I am the scummiest because of my SK comment? If you think that post was scum thrawn trying to distract from scumhunting, then you need to read it again: + Show Spoiler + On August 15 2012 09:55 thrawn2112 wrote: Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player. If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK. Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. I didnt not bold anything just now. I clearly stated that I knew that if there wasn't an SK then it would be a waste our time worrying about one. In fact the whole point of that post was to ask if anyone had any previous experience in a game that had SKs, and if they had any advice on how to approach the issue, or if to even approach it at all. | ||
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On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote: I read it, and it doesn't matter to the case on you. I know, I was telling you because it should change your suspicion about jhyut. Your suspicion of him seemed to hinge on the accusation that he told a lie about solar. I have pointed out that it wasn't a lie, and anyone that wants to check this can go look at the posts on april 4 in the my little pony thread. On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:But the issue with Archrun is you didn't compare him at all to the other lurkers. Nope. You just went ahead and joined in on Ochrow's accusation of Archrun without even offering any of your own analysis to back it up. Who were those other 3 people who had posted 4 times or less? Can you tell me who you checked? Yes, I did compare him to other lurkers. You yourself allowed that I said I checked his posts against the posts of 3 other lurkers. The lurkers I checked on were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. I have explained my reasoning for targeting archun several times. On August 16 2012 09:49 thrawn2112 wrote: I still want to hear what archrun thinks about solar as well some other accusations such as the one against yourharry. He has only made 3 posts so far, and one of them was about policy, and the other two were about the SK question I asked at the beginning of the game. So far I've yet to hear any opinion from archrun about anything relevant. On August 16 2012 10:55 thrawn2112 wrote: I am focusing on Archrun because none of the other scum reads have had very much merit. He is the person who has given the smallest amount of opinion on anything, which means that up until he does it will be impossible to get a scum read on him. I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. This makes him the most suspicious player out of all the lurkers. All I am doing is asking him to post more, and to share his opinions on what has happened so far. Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult. On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:And of course you can't defend yourself from the blatant double-teaming you and Ochrow are doing. Anyone who has been in the thread in the past day can tell. Like I said before, there is nothing I can say to convince you that Ochrow and I are not coordinating our posts. There is really nothing I can say against this claim. You are taking this claim so seriously and are so insistent on it that I am beginning to think you might be scum. You say "Anyone who has been in the thread in the past day can tell," as if there is absolutely no way that everyone won't all come to the same conclusion as you. How convenient.... the part of your argument that you are most adamant about is also the only part of the argument that is impossible for me to disprove. On August 16 2012 20:07 Shady Sands wrote:Finally, on your SK post, why would you make a post that you knew to be a complete waste of time? Answer: scum who needs to look busy... or look cute by feigning ignorance as to whether there is an SK or not (when such information is available on in the OP to this thread.) I didn't know it was a waste of time, I was asking other people if looking for an SK was a waste of time. I completely dropped the issue after it was obvious that nobody else thought it was worth talking about. It was the 5th post of the entire game, there was nothing else besides standard policy being talked about. | ||
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On August 16 2012 20:56 Shady Sands wrote: Got it. In no way should you interpret my post as telling people to stop thinking for themselves and just follow me. That being said, though, what do you think of the cases on Thrawn and Ochrow? Before you ask people what they think about your case against me, could say what your response is to my latest post? | ||
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On August 16 2012 10:55 thrawn2112 wrote: I am focusing on Archrun because none of the other scum reads have had very much merit. He is the person who has given the smallest amount of opinion on anything, which means that up until he does it will be impossible to get a scum read on him. I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. This makes him the most suspicious player out of all the lurkers. All I am doing is asking him to post more, and to share his opinions on what has happened so far. Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult. Once more for clarity's sake, I went after Archrun because I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. I have explained my motivation several times, even before you accused me of having scum-motives. Yet you continue to insist that I picked him based off of nothing which is furthering my growing suspicion of you as scum. If you are town please stop ignoring my explanations of my motivations, I really feel like I have provided ample reason for you to know why I focused on Archrun out of all the lurkers. The whole 3/4 players thing in my last post was a typo. | ||
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On August 16 2012 21:16 Shady Sands wrote:Finally, why did you just not even bother to respond to Solar's mega post fingering you as the scummiest reaction to his trolling? I did respond to solar's accusation of me being scummy based his reasoning that I was being defensive of him. On August 16 2012 15:50 thrawn2112 wrote: Point 1: You were suspicious of me defending you, but not of jhuyt for defending you? Looking back on what Jhuyt and i said about you, I was the one who expressed more suspicion of you. Yes, I did say that your behavior could be explained by you being town but playing extremely, extremely poorly. What you said is that your first few posts were troll posts, and that is correct if you are town or scum. Both what I said and what you claimed are both along the lines of "solar's first posts are town posts, but they are very unorthodox town posts." This is not dissimilar to things many others said. I also said that because of your posting style I was definitely most suspicious of you at that point in time, just for the reason of it being an odd posting style. Yet you claim that I was a target for being more defensive of you when I clearly said I was suspicious of you while jhyut did not? When you came clean about your troll posts, I as well as the majority vocal opinion at that time believed you. Now that I think back on it, I am not convinced that your early game facade is pro-town behavior. You say you wanted to get discussion going and to get reactions from players, and while that did happen, everyone became sidetracked on the argument between you and shady. That eventually gave way to a few other arguments that were either decided to be weak reads, or the outcome is still very ambiguous. 1: Why would a town player troll his first few posts? You say it is to generate discussion and make reads on people, but these are reads that (if you are town) only you will be able to make unless you can convince everyone else to believe you. 2: Why would a scum troll his first few posts? The answer to that has been made clearly obvious by the first 24 hrs worth of posts in this thread. What you did, regardless of it being pro town or anti town, in my opinion ended up having an anti town effect. If something has an anti-town effect, the easiest and simplest solution is that it was directed by someone who has anti-town motives. Point 2: That would be an acceptable answer, except that there is absolutely a 0% chance of anyone being able to fact check it. I'm still trying to figure out if there is any reasonable way for me to decide whether or not you're telling the truth about you and jhuyt's past. I am not yet suspicious of you being scum, mostly because of the strong pro-town vibe I initially got from reading your post-troll posts, but I do think that there are some holes in your arguments which I would like you to explain. I bolded the part specific to your post. Once again, you are misreading or completely ignoring my arguments. You have continued doing this for so long that I'm really considering the possibility that you aren't misreading or ignoring, but that you are scum trying to frame me. ##FOS Shady Sands | ||
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On August 16 2012 19:32 Shady Sands wrote: Okay, I just posted and I immediately saw Ochrow and Thrawn both trying to get a train on Archrun going (both posting within 30 minutes of each other.) This just reconfirms my theory: Ochrow and Thrawn are, at the very least, working together, and given how Thrawn's been so WIFOMy and sheepy for the game, I'd reckon they are not masons but scum. Just to show you how absurd of an argument this is, I'd like to point something out. You said that you saw both ochrow and I, within 30 minutes of each other were "trying to get a train on archrun going." Well, you and Archrun both voted against me within 3 minutes. If I use the reasoning you used to link me with ochrow as both scum, I must also link you with Archrun as scum. Really shady, your arguments against me have been quite a stretch, and over and over you have ignored my responses to your accusations. I do not think that if you are thoroughly reading my posts that you would still have the belief that I am scum. I will go over our conversation and try to figure out if I have been unclear in my responses to you, and I urge you to go through the conversation to see if you might have missed out on what I was trying to say. If we can't figure this out, then my only options are to think that you are scum and trying to set me up, or that you are town and making weak reads and terrible arguments. I think it is the former so I am going to vote for you. If it is the latter, I won't feel TOO bad about lynching a town player who makes bad arguments. Whatever happened to your campaign to get everyone posting their previous game filters? Based on what you have done since demanding filters from everyone, I don't see a pro-town motive for your request. Your reasoning in asking for them was that having filters can be very useful in getting reads on people's posts that are made in specific circumstances, such as what a player usually acts like when accused of being scum. After asking for everyone's filters, you haven't even brought the subject back up. What was the point of asking in the first place if you are not going to follow through with analysis? If you wanted to view the filters for your own sole benefit, it would have been way easier for you to just find the filters yourself. If you wanted the group to view the filters so that the town can make better reads, then why haven't you provided any analysis of a player's posting within this game to their posting within previous games? I can't figure out why you asked from them in the first place, which leads me to the conclusion that your filter requests were fluff. ##Vote Shady Sands | ||
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In response to shady's latest big post: I feel like I am posting the same things over and over again in response to the same accusations. Is there anyone other than shady or archrun that want me to defend myself? I'm going to bed....I've stayed up till 11am. I'm setting my alarm clock to go off in a few hours so I should be back in time to talk about things before the votes are due. | ||
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On August 17 2012 01:58 DarthPunk wrote: This is just... I don't even know. The most hard to read piece of Irony in the thread. If you have a reason to vote Shady why is half your post such garbage? I have made far better arguments against shady and I haven't even voted for him. This is not a case, nor a read, and is certainly not enough to be the none OMGUS part of the post in which you vote for shady. This does nothing to aid in the scumhunting that is occuring. This is Fluff. It is distracting us from being able to clearly read the cases for and against you. As I said earlier, my vote against shady is not just a OMGUS reaction. Throuought our argument, shady kept bringing up the same accusations which to my knowledge I gave reasonable and believable responses to. He ignored my arguments, and continued to make the same arguments over and over. From my knowledge (which is that I am the only one I know 100% is a townie) is that shady is either trying to set me up because he is scum or he is a town player making some of the worst arguments possible. I find it more likely that shady is scum because I really can't see how somebody could make such a bad argument. He even went so far as to say that it should be completely obvious to everyone else in the thread that my actions and ochrow's were coordinated. This claim was based on ochrow and I both putting a FOS on archrun within 30 minutes of each other. This is a nonsensical accusation to make. If I was scum with ochrow and trying to pin suspicion on archrun, I hope that my attempt would be way more subtle than what shady accused me of doing. I also pointed out that beyond the posting time and our both fos'ing the same player, he has given no evidence to support his claim. Anyone could easily use the same type of 'argument' against him, as he and archrun voted against me within 3 minutes of each other. By Shady's standards of evidence, the case for he and archrun being scum is even stronger than his case for ochrow and I being scum. I am not making a case that shady and archrun are both scum for those reasons, nor am I trying to prove that BOTH ochrow and I are innocent. It is just an example to show how truly unfounded shady's case was. The filter posts were a result of me thinking shady is scum because of how he was presenting his argument against me, so I went back through his filter and that was the first thing that leapt out at me as additional evidence of him being scum. | ||
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On August 17 2012 01:58 Solarsail wrote: Sorry I missed DP's new post. That is very strong. I would like to see Thrawn defend that. Now that DP's argument is there in full with evidence, the line "mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not?" is really, really out of place. The last post mkfuba made before I posted that quote, was this: On August 16 2012 02:14 mkfuba07 wrote: So I've just quickly read through what I missed while asleep. I have a few appointments to get to, so this will be my only post until later this evening. My read on Shady right now is slight townie. He was the driving force behind most of the first day so far, and has been sticking his neck out the entire time. I get null reads from the cases he presented, because though I disagree with the evidence for them, they promoted discussion when there was very little to discuss. He gets a townie point because of this discussion promotion and activity. I waited to post my reads on YourHarry because I wanted to avoid an OMGUS reaction, but most of my feelings on him had been posted by GK. I really wanted to see his reasoning for dropping the votes on Solar. Since he's posted that now, I'm a strange point in my read on him. In response to his vague comments I started to believe that he had just read his role PM (since he delayed reading them in both D1s of XXIII) and realized that Solar was his Mason partner. That seems like a legitimate reason to hint at it without outright saying it, though it will make everyone suspicious of him. What I find most suspicious is YH's willingness to believe in a Solar/GK mason team with so little evidence of it. The post he quoted from GK "defending" Solar was a mirror of my views on Solar - that he's playing in a way that will distract us from true scumhunting for the rest of D1. I don't think GK's phrasing implied greater knowledge than he should have had as a vanilla townie, as I came to the same conclusion. As a result, I see YH's strong townie read on Solar as YH behaving as if he has more information than he should. Since he isn't mason, that only leaves scum. FoS YourHarry Solar's posts have me leaning towards a townie read for him. Pointing out how thrawn's defense of him may be considered scummy seems like a very town thing to do. He's not taking someone's defense of him as evidence of townie-ness, but being suspicious of his motives. I'm not sure I agree with his method of building discussion (in reference to his earliest, trolly play), since his first few posts could cast him in a suspicious light for the rest of the game. But if it was his plan to do so to build discussion in the first place, then he knew the risks and took them for the team. Mkfuba puts a FoS on YH, with his reasoning being that YH was acting as if he had more information than anyone else concerning his read on solar and gk. I then posted: On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? My first paragraph under the YH topic is a little difficult for me to understand right now. I'll admit that I was in no way giving a clear picture of my train of thought. As I posted the night before I made my posts about YH, I was not sober that night. If you are curious about this then go check what other threads I post in as it might cause you to believe that I was likely to be telling the truth about not being sober. Despite not being sober I did lurk in the thread for 3 or 4 hours before sobering up after a quick nap. I take notes whenever I read a new post, and my scattered train of thought after my nap was probably brought on by taking notes in a scattered frame of mind before the nap. The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH. However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why. I guess the lessons to be learned are to give reasoning behind my posts, and uh .... don't read the mafia forum if I'm not sober. | ||
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On August 17 2012 02:39 Jhuyt wrote: Thrawn, I have one question for you which I feel you haven't sufficently answered: What made you feel like Arch was more scummy than Me, Stutter, Golbat or the other lurkers up until the point you decided that Arch was the scummiest? This keeps getting brought up, and I keep answering it over and over again, and nobody except solar has responded to any of my answers. Here is one of my several responses to this question: On August 16 2012 10:55 thrawn2112 wrote: I am focusing on Archrun because none of the other scum reads have had very much merit. He is the person who has given the smallest amount of opinion on anything, which means that up until he does it will be impossible to get a scum read on him. I also looked at other people with low post counts, and Archrun was the only one who had not made a claim about anything. This makes him the most suspicious player out of all the lurkers. All I am doing is asking him to post more, and to share his opinions on what has happened so far. Of course I agree that focusing on scum reads is more important than focusing on who has posted the least, but when, as goodkarma said, the conversation is only happening between a handful of people scum reading is difficult. At that point in the game there were a few people who were lurking. I didn't see any good scumhunting cases being made, so I decided to try and get the lurkers to post more. I went through all their few posts, and archrun's were the ones I found to be most lacking in pro-town content. Thus he is the best target of all the lurkers. I did not ignore the other lurkers, but being most suspicious of him I pressured him the most. In my FOS of Archrun, before anyone had expression suspicions as to why I was targeting him specifically out of all the lurkers, I said: On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:Archrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker. | ||
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On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote: 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. You are exactly right about why I voted for shady. I was being accused of putting a spotlight on which was from my explained reasoning, the most scummy lurker. Shady kept drilling the same accusations over and over and the main focus of his case was on that I put a FOS on archrun, and his claim that ochrow and I were scum and working together to cause a mislynch of archrun. Someone above this post said that a more reasonable explanation of the odd timing of ochrow and my posts is that ochrow and I are masons. In someone else's position I would be way more likely to believe that thrawn and ochrow are masons rather than scum, and I really cant see why shady is being so aggressive over what from my perspective, is a completely fabricated case. You hinted that you think the push to lynch me is likely to be somewhat a scum directed action. This is the conclusion I came to and I voted for Shady because he was (once again from my perspective knowing that I am town) being the most illogical and relentless about it. | ||
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On August 17 2012 04:52 Stutters695 wrote: My current vote is going to Archrun. I am suspicious of Thrawn but reading Mkfuba and GK's posts about him I'd like to see a little more out of him before coming to a conclusion on him. ##Vote Archrun Here's why I think Archrun is our best lynch (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489&user=155910 - Full Filter for easy reference): So far he has a total of six posts in this game. I don't find that particularly suspicious but what I do find suspicious is that he looks active throughout without actually looking for scum. In his first post he says the policy from XXIII and that as a VT he promotes "any policy that helps us catch scum." Although you can't expect scumhunting this early, I wanted to point out his noncommittal attitude. Now he has two more posts for that day. The first one is agreeing with both Shady and thrawn's statements that a SK is a non-issue at this point for the town. This has already been agreed upon and he didn't contribute anything new with his post except that a team of 3 is more dangerous than a 1 man team. His only other post before disappearing for 24 hours is soft defending Thrawn from Shady. Fast forward 26 hours and we get to the point that really stood out to me and caused me to look into him more closely. First his case on Solar and Jhuyt: This appears to be his largest contribution to the thread. He has a premise and uses some facts to back it up. Most of the post is WIFOM and doesn't really contribute anything. The part I want to emphasize is the first part of his two-fold concern. "May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is." Now fast forward six hours to his next post: At the very start of this post he immediately refutes his previous case by saying "Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally." At this point from the start of the game until this post he has spent over 30 hours without contributing anything while appearing very active. Now moving forward to his case on Thrawn, the meat of it is in that Thrawn doesn't "explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie." However if you read the quote regarding it in Archrun's post it is explaining exactly why. The rest of his case is just sheeping off of Solar and Z-Boson's claims against Thrawn. His very last post is a bunch of quotes that I honestly have a hard time following but again he sheeps off of another player's accusations. Tl;dr - Read the post and see why Archrun has been hiding his lack of contribution while appearing active. I would be in favor of voting for Archrun or Shady. Of course there is the obvious "they were the first two to vote on me" but I think the way the case against me was carried out was very scummy. Shady was the main driving force behind the case against me, and I have been suspicious of archrun since sometime during the first 24 hrs. And as I said, they were the first two to vote for me so I think that one and/or both of them are scum. I think shady should get the vote, because I'd rather vote for someone who seems scummy after posting a lot than someone who seems scummy but might actually be a town lurker. | ||
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On August 17 2012 04:57 YourHarry wrote:Thrawn, do you standby the fact that your post was NOT affected by Ochrow's? No, my post was not affected by ochrow's. The purpose of quoting his post was to show my agreement with his read on archrun. While our statements about why we suspect archrun sound similar, they are based on different theories. (I could be wrong, I have no idea what exact process ochrun used) A good amount of time had been wasted on weak accusations and I thought lurker policy would be a better thing to focus on than whatever was being discussed. I systematically went through the filters of the lurkers and tried to see if any of them stood out. This is a basic summary of the investigation I made into the lurkers On August 17 2012 03:23 thrawn2112 wrote:The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker. I do not know if ochrow used a similar method to choose a lurker to focus on, but regardless we both arrived at the same conclusion. | ||
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I want to know what you think about shady. Whatever you have to say about him will greatly influence my read on you. As of now I am getting scummy reads from both of you. | ||
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On August 17 2012 07:36 DarthPunk wrote: I am having a similar problem with your posts  yeah... I haven't needed to use punctuation for a long time | ||
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On August 17 2012 07:58 DarthPunk wrote: I am really uncomfortable with how fast a counter wagon on the most active player in the game sprung up. I urge everyone to read MY CASE on thrawn. My initial FOS on yourharry was bad play. I didn't have sufficient evidence to put a FOS on YH. My suspicion was only based off of how many times yh had flip-flopped so I was wary of him. The FOS was unwarranted. I called FOS without putting enough thought into the decision. I do think that I gave a good explanation of why I later believed he was town: On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. I clarified my argument after being pressed about it: The 2nd paragraph contained the majority of my thought process concerning YH. Some people thought YH was scum because he was posting as if he had additional information, but I saw a different perspective. YH said he acted the way he did because he made a self-admittedly weak read into gk's post. I then said that I was previously nursing a weak read that he and solar were either masons or scum. I had at that point abandoned my weak read, which caused me to be trusting of YH's claim that he also made a weak read about potential mason status of solar. I had made the same mistake as YH claimed to make, which is why I was inclined to believe YH. However, me making a weak read does not confirm that YH was telling the truth in admitting to making a weak read. I was willing to accept that YH was town, but since mkfuba had recently expression sucpicion of YH I wanted to know if my argument was sufficient to convince mkfuba, and if it wasn't then I would obviously want to know the reason why. | ||
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thrawn2112
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On August 17 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote:There is actually no argument present at all besides some poor justifications for your backflip. You say my justifications were poor, and I say they weren't..... Harry referred to information that only he claimed to have. Later he took back the claim he made based off that information. He revealed the information to be that he thought that solar and gk were masons because of the wording of gk's post. This statement..... On August 15 2012 13:20 YourHarry wrote: Shady. I guess there is a small chance that I could be wrong. But if I am right, it is not a good idea to reveal this information. Let's move on for now. ......gives credence to his story about him thinking solar and gk are masons. After this post: On August 15 2012 14:14 mkfuba07 wrote: @YourHarry: When did you check your role PM this time? I began to think that yourharry and solar were masons. I realized later that I was reading way too much into everything. My experience of thinking that solar is a mason and realizing that I was making a weak read is what caused me to trust yourharry's claim that he made a weak read on the mason-status of solar. | ||
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I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate. | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:20 Archrun wrote: To follow that point up, I feel like the scum threat is a lot stronger than SK because they are organized and know who to attack. A SK in my eyes is like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently. So if any exist in this game they shouldn't become an issue until later in the game. I don't accept that as an accurate description of an SK. You say not to worry about looking for an sk until later in the game, because an sk is "like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently." An SK isn't limited to killing scum, in fact they would probably have to kill more town players than scum players. The fact that you didn't point out hwo an SK would also kill town players leads me to think that you either didn't realize it, or that you are planting a false description of an SK because YOU are SK. What do you have to say about your original description of an SK and what do you think about my description? In this post: + Show Spoiler + On August 16 2012 13:58 Archrun wrote: Sorry for being lurky, not intend just became last minute busy. As far as reads go I am going through the thread at will give my thoughts on the case against YH, thrawn, and GK as soon as I can, but right now I want to make a ##FoS: Jhuyt and Solar Case: Jhuyt puts: then Solar puts: May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is. This leads me wonder why would Solar question Thrawn's motives and not Jhuyt? This plays out four ways: If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is townie then Solar should of suspected his motives like he did with thrawn or both of them are mason and there is no need to question each others motives. I believe them being Masons is possible. If Jhuyt is townie and Solar is scum then why would jhuyt lie about Solar's posting? Futhermore, why wouldn't Solar call Jhuyt out like he did with Thrawn? The only why I can see is to put focus on one person. This seems dishonest. nor does it allievate Jhuyt roll. under those ground I reject this possibility. If Jhuyt is scum and Solar is scum then either a bus play could happen(which didn't) or they could protect each other. They could directly protect each other by offering counter arguments against both of them, (which only Jhuyt did in that one line lie) or indirectly by not bringing attention to each other(which would be a play that Solar made. I believe them both being scum is possible. Finally, if Jhuyt is scum and Solar is townie then by lying Jhuyt post (which occured before Solar) puts focus on Shady and potentially has some a townie on his side. Solar likewise either became a townie by his side(doubtful, because he didn't defend him against Shady's accusation) or Solar would of question his motive like he did with thrawn. I reject this possibility as stated above. This leads me to believe Jhuyt and Solar are Scum or Masons. Thoughts? Concerns? Did I miss something? I don't think Solar missed Jhuyt post because he was corresponding with Shady the entire page and part way through there correspondences Shady replied to Jhuyt. I want to emphasis I haven't look at the evidence agaisnt Thrawn thoroughly so I have no argument on him as scum or town at the moment. You gave a very long winded and convoluted argument where your conclusion was that solar and jhuyt are possibly, depending on several variable factors, either both scum or masons. It looks like you were trying way too hard to appear like you were contributing. This doesn't mean that you are confirmed scum, because if you are town then I understand your motivation for making that post. You could have felt like you were under too much pressure and decided to post a long argument to convince people that you are town, but I think your argument felt forced. In your next post you take back your claim because jhyut's statement about solar's posting history proved to be true, which gives me a town read on that post. You show that you are trying to adjust your arguments based on new information presented by others which I think is pro-town behavior. No matter what your alliance is, your mason/scum claim on solar and jhyut looked like an attempt to show that you are contributing. I'm going to stick with town read on that one but there were things that happened later on in D1 that caused me to get a scum read on you. I haven't gone through your posts after the one's I referenced so I still need to form an opinion on your role in the lynch vote. For now I'd like to hear what you have to say about my post. | ||
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On August 18 2012 06:13 Ochrow wrote: At the moment I'm going to stick with my earlier suspicions and say that unless something very suspicious happens we should vote Archrun. But at the same time Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. So I think right now we are going to have to focus a lot on who the kills are tonight. Why is it suspicious that I am questioning archrun? I clearly expressed my reasons for doing so. On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up. I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate. Shady was mislynched. This is our first real clue as to the scum team's possible actions. That is the starting point of my current scumhunting effort and Archrun is my first suspect, both because I was already suspicious of him and because he and I seem to be in the spotlight. | ||
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On August 18 2012 07:43 DarthPunk wrote: In case I die my top scum reads are Thrawn Shady was an obvious counter wagon that sprang up very quickly and with the kind of momentum that comes from scum coordinating to push a mislynch on someone. He was also the top scumread of now townie shady sands and was very active in pushing the shady mislynch. He is now trying to paint Archrum who didn't vote for the shady mislynch as a more likely suspect than those who were influential in orchestrating the counter wagon on shady. Namely himself and Your Harry. My second Scum read is Your Harry The half hearted and altogether too late masquerade to alter his vote to Archun seems like an rather obvious attempt to distance himself from the shady mislynch and to set up a mislynch the following day. He is guilty of the exact thing that he accuses Archun of and yet the way he is going about it is far more suspicious. He also maintained a vote buffer on shady sands throughout the voting cycle and based it on some interplay with Thrawn. Although he says only one townie had to switch to Thrawn two actually did The thing that makes me very suspicious of these two is that they are now trying to paint themselves, two of the people who lead the obvious counter wagon on shady as being confirmed town after shady's flip and are now obviously trying to set up another lynch on someone whom suspected thrawn on a questionable interpretation of a single post for a reason that they are both now far more guilty of. I will post far more detailed discussion on both these players if I live. However If I die. Town, please seriously consider lynching Your Harry and Thrawn ASAP @Your Harry and Thrawn: Yes I understand what you are saying about Archun. However I don't buy your case or your interpretation of the post it is based on. So you're saying I should be investigating myself and yourharry instead of archrun? I'm not sure what to make of yourharry. He has flip flopped more than anyone else throughout the entire D1, and I think he is reading too much into archun's post where archrun said "either shady or thrawn is scum." It is a strange thing to say, especially without including the option that both shady and I could be town, but for yourharry to call it "clearly scum motivated" is a little unjustified. My (very weak) read on him is that he is town, but it is a weak read because of how often he flip-flopped on his reads and votes during D1. Just to clarify to darthpunk: My suspicion of Archrun is not based on his 'lynch thrawn if shady is town' post. Yes it's a weird post, but it isn't one of my main reasons for going through his filter and I never said it was. The town has not been active at all since shady's lynch. All you others need to say something because you're making this more difficult than it should be. | ||
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On August 18 2012 08:26 DarthPunk wrote: No. I am not saying you should investigate yourself. Is that what you genuinely got out of my post? No I do not think that you think that town thrawn should investigate to determine if thrawn is town or scum lol. But you seem to think that I and harry are most deserving of suspicion, and my post was an attempt to show why I, as town thrawn, am investigating archrun. I explained my read on yourharry, and the 'investigate myself' comment was a (probably lame) attempt at humor. | ||
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On August 18 2012 08:59 DarthPunk wrote: Why are you constantly addressing yourself as town thrawn? You seem pretty desperate to establish your townieness. Or perhaps as Scum Thrawn you need to constantly think about what your towny alter ego would be doing and that is coming out in your posting. Sounds somewhat similar to zork from XXII. You always describe my motivations as how they make sense to scum thrawn, I am trying to get you to see how they are more reasonable coming from town thrawn. There have been quite a lot of things said about me and it will take a good amount of time to write up a post. Expect one in the next couple hours. | ||
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Shady was lynched and flipped town Archrun was killed and flipped town Mkfuba was killed and flipped town Goodkarma and Darthpunk both claim to have very strong reads on me as scum. Their reasoning is that I was pushing for shady and archun to be lynched, and both of them flipped town. Mkfuba wrote a very long post on why he had a town read on me: + Show Spoiler + On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote: Trying to get into school is running me ragged, so this will be my only post for the moment. If anyone has specific questions they'd like me to answer, let me know so I can get to those as soon as possible (preferably before the lynch). Since Thrawn seems to be quite the target, I'm going to post my thoughts on him: 1) The SK posts seemed a bit suspicious, but when I read them I got a rather null read. I was obsing a game recently (my apologies for not knowing the exact game name) where it seemed like the entire first 24 hours was spent discussing what a theoretical Tracker should do if he even existed in the game. Asking a question of the more experienced players regarding SKs, and giving his own point of view, doesn't send off any major alarms in my head. He dropped the issue immediately after people said that they basically agreed with him, and he hasn't personally brought them up ever since. 2) Regarding his actions in the Solar issue, I tended to agree with him along the way. This quote appears to summarize his thought process quite nicely, and since it was exactly the same as my thoughts I actually got a slight townie read after it. He was suspicious at the right times, and when something didn't make sense he questioned the reasoning of whoever raised that point. 3) This quote makes me lean townie as well. Though I have stated that I didn't agree with the original argument behind YH's reads on solar/GK, Thrawn again comes to the same conclusion as me: that the entire case comes down to that single "Sigh..." comment. Though I was (and still am) suspicious of YH after that case, Thrawn's disagreement over this doesn't reveal alignment to me. The way he's thinking things through is very similar to how I did during my only previous vanilla townie game. 4) The whole Z-Boson/Ochrow situation also has me leaning town. During that entire situation, Thrawn makes efforts to alleviate the confusion that's been caused by Z-Boson's misread, when he could have just sat back and let the misunderstanding grow out of control (especially seeing how readily people in this game have been jumping on single posts to make full cases). With this, I have a firm townie read on Thrawn. 5) I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. In short, I truly think that a lynch on Thrawn would be a mislynch. I have some reads on other people that I will try to get up as soon as possible, but I have to leave to take care of school issues right now, and don't want to post half-assed theories without being able to clarify them right away. I will say that I am likely to support a relative lurker lynch, especially given that most of the discussion has been about a player who I've made it clear I have pretty strong town reads on. Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote: Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? | ||
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thrawn2112
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On August 18 2012 10:22 YourHarry wrote: thrawn, do you think there is SK? quick question, yes or no? I don't think so. My reasoning is that mkfuba was killed fore being my strongest defender, and I killed Archrun. If there is a Sk he chose not to kill, which doesn't make sense because if I was SK I would choose to kill someone every night. No, based on the events of N1 I don't think there is an SK. | ||
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On August 18 2012 10:28 Solarsail wrote: The Archrun death completely validates gk's post. I was already wavering on Thrawn yesterday early on and Ochrow's most recent post (before GK even said anything) I'm less convinced on YourHarry since there is no direct link and I had a soft town read from yesterday, but there's two good candidates right there. Lol Thrawn your vigilante claim is ridiculous. Vigilantes do not reveal that they are vigilantes over such a trivial matter as defending themselves, as the role is so powerful that scum have no choice but to kill you immediately. ##Vote: Thrawn ##FoS: Ochrow Why would I have a reason to not reveal myself as Vig? After using my 1 bullet my role is worthless and I have nothing to gain from hiding it. Therefore claiming to defend myself is not ridiculous, because I have no reason to keep it a secret anymore. | ||
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On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote: Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason  .##Vote: thrawn2112 And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow ##FoS: YourHarry I'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. Did you read all of my post? You didn't mention anything about the arguments I made concerning mkfuba. | ||
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Right before I claimed vig I read the "General Guide to Mafia." This is what I read: "Claiming that you shot player X as a vig after the fact is usually a good claim if you have no shots left, especially if you hit a red, as you bring new information to the table that the mafia cannot punish." The guide takes a pretty strong stance against role claiming, with the exception of Vigilante. You say that my argument concerning mkfuba is wifom. However I think it provides a very strong reason why I wouldn't kill mkfuba as scum thrawn. He was the MOST convinced that I was town, and wrote a very long argument as to why he believed so. He had the strongest town read on me, and was killed. I cannot conceive of any possible mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town. | ||
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On August 18 2012 10:52 DarthPunk wrote: Of course YOUwould be the one to see this weak as shit breadcrumb. If it is even a breadcrumb. Of course YOU would Immediately accept him to be vig without any discussion whatsoever. You're right, it wasn't a breadcrumb. | ||
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On August 18 2012 12:26 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: But, unless there is a counter claim on vigilante, why don't we wait and see how many night kills there are tomorrow? I don't think anyone will agree to this. The people that are calling me scum are also calling you scum and will say that you being scum, are presenting this plan with which you intend to manipulate the results (by not using a mafia kill) to convince everyone that I'm not your scum buddy. Even if people agree to this I'm not sure how I'd feel about the basis for me being assumed a town player to be based on what could be a setup created by people who are calling you scum. wifom everywhere..... this thread is a big giant wifom circlejerk at the moment. people including myself are basing cases on wifom arguments. people are using wifom arguments to accuse other people of making wifom arguments.... and in the meantime 3 town players have died. on reflection I think we should have taken the lurker policy seriously. | ||
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On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote: A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. | ||
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On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote: The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler + (except the sk, if he does exist) The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig. And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. | ||
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On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote: I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Could you outline why you want to lynch me other than that you are in agreement with what others have said? Since shady was lynched all you have said was this: On August 18 2012 09:27 Golbat wrote: I still maintain my case on thrawn. He and shady are my two biggest scum reads at the moment. I'll have to re read GK's case on oochrow, and then OO's filter and then see how I feel about that. But I feel pretty safe right now in voting for Thrawn. ##Vote Thrawn also, ##FoS YourHarry His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says. There was not very much substance in that post and it's the only post you've made since the lynch where you explain your current reads. | ||
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On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote: @Thrawn: So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. | ||
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@goodkarma dont worry it's coming | ||
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On August 18 2012 08:57 goodkarma wrote: So, I have a pretty long post I’ve been putting together on my latest scum reads. I now strongly believe that Shady was on the right track. Thrawn, Ochrow, and YourHarry are the three scum. Evidence of a shared QT: First, I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention the evidence that both Thrawn and Ochrow are sharing a QT. Shady has brought this up before, and so have I, but I don’t feel everyone has looked back on their filters to determine how obvious this is. Listed below, for your reference are the two posts that show this most clearly. Notice the timestamps, as they are identical. There is zero chance that one came in and later “copied” the other: Now look also at the nature of the posts. What is discussed is almost identical. Both talk about Solarsail, and both conclude that he is not currently suspicious. Both also conclude that YourHarry is town. This point should bring up red flags on everyone’s radars, as this is simply not the prevailing viewpoint of the thread at the time, and they both give pretty weak reasoning for their conclusion. Both also discuss policy lurker lynching. Here, Ochrow FoS’s Archrun (in the same post), and thrawn FoS’s Archrun about two hours later. What are the odds that that many different topics were discussed by two people randomly at the exact same time without the help of a QT? I’d say pretty much none. As I originally posted, though, I felt that two scum associating themselves this closely was nearly suicidal. I suspected them to be masons. But neither have come forward with such a claim, even as Thrawn was nearly lynched day one. Additionally, neither of them have been interested in scum-hunting, spending much of their energies with wishy-washy “I don’t know” posts on others’ reads and pursuing the lurker lynch of Archrun. I will lay this out in my posts against each candidate below: You say there is 0 chance that we copied each other. I say that there is 0 chance a scum team would post eerily similar arguments so close together. I have been questioned over and over for what was an unfortunate coincidence. Case against Thrawn: So the underlying theme here is that none of these three is interested in scum-hunting. Let’s summarize Thrawn’s posting history, in chronological order: -Wastes a bunch of time discussing the possibility of an SK -dismisses case on solarsail as emotional response either town or scum could do -casts light suspicion on YourHarry -Summarizes stance on solarsail, magically decides YourHarry is now town, and starts “lurker lynch” policy -Tunnels Archrun -OMGUS votes Shady I did not "waste a bunch of time discussing the possibilty of an SK." I only made one post at the very beginning of the game when everyone was focusing on policy. I dropped the issue because nobody posted saying it was an issue worth talking about. "Wastes a bucnh of time" is such an extreme exaggeration of a single post at the beginning of the game. I did not go after Archrun for no reason. I have explained my reason several times, he was one of the lurkers, and was was the only lurker that had not contributed anything useful to discussion. My vote for Shady was not an OMGUS vote. It was based on me not being able to understand how he could possibly think I was scum after all the counter arguments I had given him. Not knowing how he (as a town player) could think I was scum, I began to think he was scum and that he was trying to set me up. He continued being unreasonable so finally I thought he was confirmed scum and voted for him. That pretty much sums up his play to date. The only real stances I’ve gotten from his play so far: -YourHarry is town because his mason case was “believable.” He has to date not said anything to address the scum behavior others have pointed out in YourHarry’s play. This is a weak claim with very little to back it up. I find it interesting that he doesn’t go so far as to determine Solar to be town by the same logic. Most players would say YourHarry is a neutral read by Thrawn’s logic, as believing YourHarry’s mason case was genuinely made does not in any way support that YourHarry’s case was made with a town motivation in the first place. He also has mentioned his FOS on YourHarry was hastily made, which is true. It didn’t really feel like he had any conviction behind it, and it feels like two scum trying to distance themselves. I originally said that he was thinking in binary. “If I can’t confirm YourHarry is scum, then he’s town.” But looking at how wishy-washy he’s been on SolarSail, this isn’t the case. This was a deliberate choice, and why I believe scum Thrawn is covering for scum YourHarry here. Regarding my play: My play at the beginning of D1 was pretty weak, but I think I was right for FOS'ing archrun based on what he had posted so far. As D1 came to an end I think I drastically improved my play. I was able to present logical arguments backed up by a lot of quotes from filters, and I did participate in scumhunting. I think that if not for me, Shady wouldn't have been lynched. I went out on a limb to vote for him, because my reasoning for voting shady was based on me being town. This is not information other people had so I was in no way bandwagoning onto a shady lynch. My vote for shady was based on something only I knew, which was that I was town. My next post will contain my FOS candidate. I can only request that those of you who are convinced that I am scum to investigate my next scum read because when I flip blue you won't have wasting precious scumhunting time. | ||
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Yourharry has a long track record of posting one liners. One liners are likely to come from scum, as the scum can appear active and even appear to be scumhunting without saying anything of substance for the town to analyze. I have gone through his filter and quoted all his one liners. I tried not to include posts that shouldn't be relevant, such as asking mods questions and things like that. There are several posts I didn't include that were very short but at least were composed of more than a single sentence + Show Spoiler + On August 15 2012 12:06 YourHarry wrote: I think solarsail is scared ... On August 15 2012 12:09 YourHarry wrote: Did we just catch 2 scums?? On August 15 2012 12:09 YourHarry wrote: Shady, don't leave us. Let's find the third scum. On August 15 2012 12:24 YourHarry wrote: Never mind. I am confident Solarsail is town. Move on. ##Unvote On August 15 2012 12:27 YourHarry wrote: Shady, do you agree? On August 15 2012 12:34 YourHarry wrote: Right now is not the good time to explain. Really, you don't see it? On August 15 2012 12:55 YourHarry wrote: GK, your post regarding Solar was the reason why I found him town. Is that enough explanation for you? On August 15 2012 13:54 YourHarry wrote: I found mkfuba scummy, but I may have been too focused on people trying to target Solar. On August 17 2012 05:32 YourHarry wrote: BTW, I still think GK is scummy. On August 17 2012 05:34 YourHarry wrote: Whether or not it's a plurality, what is the point of casting a vote on someone who is not going to get majority of the votes? On August 17 2012 05:39 YourHarry wrote: I will be back before deadline. Count on it. On August 18 2012 10:22 YourHarry wrote: thrawn, do you think there is SK? quick question, yes or no? On August 18 2012 16:21 YourHarry wrote: Keep busing your scum partner. Yourharry has flipflopped more than any other player. Here is one example: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=8 On this page he votes for thrawn. The next two posts are back to back, Darthpunk is suspicious of solar and shady issues an FOS on solar. The next post is yourharry unvoting thrawn and voting for solar. His explanation in that post is a quote of something solar said at the beginning of the game. Harry does not present a case, he only quotes solar and votes for him. This looks like someone who is trying to fit in with the current opinion without having to give a good explanation for his read. There are many other times he has flipflopped and he has been called out for doing so throughout the game. Yourharry made votes for shady, solar, thrawn, goodkarma, and archrun. Near the voting deadline, he votes for shady, after people such as myself, mkfuba, and jhyut have done. At that point it is looking like either shady or I will be lynched. Then there is discussion about how voting for a lurker such as archrun (who is starting to get more votes) is a safer alternative than lynching shady or myself. Even I make a couple posts about the possibility of switching my vote to archrun. Right before the deadline, literally minutes before the deadline, yourharry switches his vote to archrun. He switches his vote to what people are saying would be the "safe" option. He quotes the "either thrawn scum or shady scum" quote from archrun and switches his vote giving a short two sentence explanation for his vote. To sum up, he votes for shady when other people start doing so, then switches his vote to archrun when other people start doing so, and his explanations why weren't very good. At the start of N1 he is defending me, but once the town is all saying that I am scum (excluding lurkers, where are you guys?) he changes his read. At the beginning of the game I was suspicious of yourharry because of how he posted during the solar trolling. After him giving his explanation for his nonsensical posts about information only he knew I accepted his explanation and from that point on I haven't paid too attention to him and had a slight town read on him. I should not have stopped watching him, his behavior of posting one liners, flipflopping, bandwagoning has not stopped. Am I reading too much into his posting style and his flip flops? When I think about the way he has posted and changed his reads to whoever the town had a scum read on over the course of the game, I am starting to think he is scum. I'm not confident enough in my read to vote for him but I think his general behavior has been very suspicious. Regarding WIFOM: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM I read the definition, and have come to the conclusion that people keep using that word and I do not think it means what they think it means. | ||
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On August 18 2012 20:00 Jhuyt wrote: I want to say that I had the exact same reaction to as he had, simply because from my experience that is the easiest way for a scum to reveal himself. I guess it could also be because you suddenly thought you should write as if you had not claimed you're vigi. From either scum or town perspective that's a really dumb idea because it is, like I have written, a very common scumslip. Right now I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt because I think that it is more urgent for us to lynch YH because of his flip-floppy ways and long posts with almost no content. The purpose of saying "if I'm town" is to make a distinction between what my motives would be if I'm mafia or town. When trying to explain why I did something, it's important to give reasons why my actions make more sense if I am town than if I'm scum and I thought that using 'if i'm town' was a good way to show that distinction between scum-motives and town-motives. That was not darthpunk's only post I felt that way about; he seemed to be not paying attention to what I was actually saying for several posts and only responded with short accusations such as "you keep using wifom." | ||
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On August 18 2012 20:00 Jhuyt wrote:Right now I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt because I think that it is more urgent for us to lynch YH because of his flip-floppy ways and long posts with almost no content. I don't follow your logic there... you are giving me the benefit of the doubt because you would rather lynch yourharry? Not voting for one player because you would rather vote for another player isn't a bad thing but the way you said it ("I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt") was strange. Do you think I'm town or scum and why? | ||
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On August 19 2012 03:03 Z-BosoN wrote: Sorry I haven't been posting much lately, had a tough end of week. Am catching up atm, should be hearing from me soon. I already read the whole thread, and now will start going more carefully through the filters, especially thrawn's, who was already my top suspect before Shady's lynch and now just seems to be in an even worse spot. I don't think I'll bother with shady's filter because he was just attacking everyone left and right, with few good points. However, Archrun's filter and especially mkfuba's filter should provide more information. Assuming that the vigi shot Archrun (doesn't make sense for vigi to shoot mkf), why did mkfuba get shot? This topic is generally overlooked, but I don't think we should ignore the reasoning behind mafia's NK. I'll see what I can find out, one sec guys! I tried to point out that mkfuba's lasts posts in the game were about how he had a very strong town read on me. He had the strongest town read on me out of anyone and he gave the best explanations as to why. As was standard for everything I tried to say during N1 people (especially darkpunk) just completely dismissed this as "OMG thrawn more WIFOM." Don't you think that my claim that I shot Archrun is completely in line with everything I had said at the end of D1 and during N1? He was my next target after shady, and I tried to scumhunt him to confirm/deny my suspicions but he never responded to my accusations. I have pointed this out too but by then the town was already of the opinion that they should ignore everything I have to say. On August 19 2012 00:30 YourHarry wrote: And flip-flopping of my votes is just reflection of my changing reads on people. Some of my suspicions could have come from gut feeling, but I think I can explain most of my flip flops. I will do it later if people ask me to. Could you do it? I believed some of your flip flops were sincere at the time they occurred, but when you take into account that you do it over and over the entire game, especially taking into account that many of your flipflops were you switching your reads to line up with what the town was beginning to think, it looks very scummy. | ||
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Ochrow's post + Show Spoiler + On August 17 2012 05:54 Ochrow wrote: On Archrun: Well for starters I am going to go ahead and ##Unvote. For while I'm still suspicious of Archrun for reasons very similar to those posted above, he was very lurky at a time that I didn't feel like I had any good scum reads (yes shady that means I didn't agree with your witch hunts but that doesn't make me scum. . . ) and once he finally stopped lurking I didn't feel his post carried much weight and so I felt that it was just a filler post pointing out some random person to make him seem less suspicious, I don't feel I have enough to vote him at the moment. Now before people start saying that I am flip flopping and that is scum behavior or whatever that argument is I would just like to point out my reasoning for voting Arch because it is somewhat separate from my reasoning for suspecting him. The reason I went and changed my FoS to a Vote was because I really had no idea how much time we had left, I unfortunately have no perception of the passage of time so I thought that the game had already been going on for long enough that the end might come while I was asleep which it almost did as I only just woke up. And so I wanted to make sure I voted as required. On shady: At the moment I can't be sure if Shady is scum or just crazy aggressive townie though at the moment I am leaning slightly towards townie for the same reasoning I used earlier in the game: However I do feel that his aggressiveness has progressed to a point where it is almost damaging. The case that he laid down on Thrawn and I was not much different from his original argument against Solar, it was based off of little evidence (oh they both posted at the same time and the second guy read the first ones post and had insider information because he restated stuff that Ochrow had said in a PUBLIC forum) and Shady attacked it with a witch hunt mentality. It seems that Shady is like a shark waiting to smell blood and as soon as he does he just attacks immediately, at least that is the way it seems to me. But nonetheless I still don't feel that this is necessarily scum play, just bad play, but if we don't find any really solid scum (I am not currently sold on any of the reads as I will explain below) I can see him as a potentially good lynch. On Thrawn: I really can't get a read on Thrawn. To be honest when I first read Shady's post I almost instantly began to feel that Thrawn was scum but after reading his defense I do not think that he is. But I will say that I find him a bit too sheepish. It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded, so I feel that this is something we need to look out for because it does feel somewhat scummy. On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. On YourHarry: As far as the stuff from early on goes I believe his explanation in that he had a mason misread and I think that was it, and as I said before while he was posting very short messages he really didn't appear to have much to say outside of those short messages, but going by his posting history it looks like as soon as he started to get actual reads he began to post them. I feel that his swingyness is suspicious and that his posts haven't been great, particularly the case against GK, but I don't really get a scum read from him. On JHuyt: At the moment he and Golbat are on the top of the Lurker List but I don't have much more than that. However, I don't feel that Archrun's case against him has any merit in light of what Solar has said about his history, and I felt the same way before anyways. On Golbat: I can't really get much of a read because he does only have two posts and even in those two posts he doesn't really do much. He has a one line accusation of thrawn and a few really short reads on people that have been pointed out as big suspects but it is so little that I can't really pull much from it but I don't think he is scum but if he only does two posts a day then I'm tempted to lynch just to narrow things down. So just to wrap it up my top choices for lynches would be Arch, Golbat, and Shady in that order. But I do not feel strongly about the Shady lynch at all, I just think that if he keeps up his witch hunt mentality it could be damaging. So primarily I feel we should lynch Arch or Golbat, Arch for my earlier reasoning and pretty much the same stuff that Stutters said and Golbat for being a lurker. The first bold edit is an odd thing to say as it sounds like he is already trying to preempt counter arguments, but I think a town player could have done it. The only weird thing about it is its close proximity to the 2nd bold edit, which I honestly have no idea what to make of on it's own. But seeing as how they are two strange comments close to each other and regarding the same topic, it makes me a little suspicious that they are excuses (scum statements) rather than reasons (town statements.) The third bold edit when he's talking about me: "It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded." This is just not true. Either ochrow is misrepresenting me, or he didn't read the thread. He made this statement after I voted for shady, and that was anything but a bandwagon vote. In fact a lot of people have described it as an OMGUS vote. I can't see how anyone could say I've been bandwagoning if they've read my reasons for voting. On the next bold edit: ("The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them.") The context for this was defending the accusation that he and I were sharing a qt. He says that "Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post." To me this seems like a bad argument and possibly him trying to deflect everyone onto my case. To say "the fact of the matter" is a very strongly and clearly worded statement that expresses that whatever claim comes next is undeniable truth. Why would ochrow's defense of the "thrawn/ochrow share a qt" claim be him saying that the only possible explanation is that I piggybacked onto his claim? This strikes me as a suspicious defense. | ||
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On August 19 2012 07:04 Golbat wrote: Wasn't the lie about Solarsail, saying that his posts in this thread match his posts in the rest of TL as far as emotional defense? Cause Solarsail soon after came out and was like "no I was just trolling guys". No jhyut said that, and it turned out that it wasn't a lie. It doesn't seem like you are paying very much attention to this game and I don't know what to make of that | ||
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On August 19 2012 07:30 Golbat wrote: You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1. Why are YOU trying to make it sound like I have no clue what's going on at all? I know exactly what to make of that. I'm not trying to 'make it sound' like that, I'm flat out stating that you don't have a clue. You even agreed to this. "You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1." You admit not paying close attention to the first 24 hours of the game. You shouldn't have signed up for a game you're not going to participate in... if you are town then you really made the 1st day way more difficult, as did the other lurkers. You were more active from the end of D1 till now which makes me think that you truly were just lurking at the beginning, but you have to see that you've made it really difficult for people to get a read on you. | ||
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On August 19 2012 07:45 goodkarma wrote: An important component of my case against him is that I believe him and Ochrow have a shared QT, and that their views are eerily similar as though aligned via said QT. If either Ochrow or Thrawn flips red, it gives my "shared QT" case point that much more validity, but I'm not willing to send one possibly innocent player to death just to see if my case is right. First and foremost, we hunt scum, and thrawn's most recent actions feel significantly pro-town to me. As I've said the posts were a coincidence, so I obviously don't agree with the 'shared qt theory' component of your case. If that is the main component of your case then I urge you to reevaluate your vote because you would be basing your vote on what is a coincidence. On August 19 2012 07:45 goodkarma wrote: Even if my shared QT case point doesn't hold water, looking at Ochrow's actions, he is distinctly scummy. He is pretty lurky, and hasn't stuck his neck out on any case argument, spending much of his efforts on a safe "policy lurker vote" against Archrun. His favorite stance on others is pretty much a wishy-washy "I don't know."[ My read on him is he's a lurky scum with no interest in actively participating in scum-hunting. This alone is enough merit to earn my vote. That his flip will provide valuable information on my shared QT case point is an added bonus. I do agree with this part, and I'm currently waiting on ochrow to respond to my post. If he doesn't give a believable response or doesn't respond at all then I will also vote for Ochrow. I'm currently waiting on yourharry and ochrow to reply to my posts. I haven't felt that darthpunk's replies to my posts are genuine so if yourharry and ochrow convince me they're town then I will go through darthpunk's filter. | ||
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On August 19 2012 07:45 goodkarma wrote: He claims that the post timing for both him and Ochrow I pointed out is merely coincidence. While I still find that a little hard to believe, I'm looking at his actions too. Here is the page where it happened. Notice that Ochrow and I both made posts on August 15, 5:27 KST. In these posts, we both come to the conclusion that yourharry and solar are town and we use similar reasons causing people to later on (nobody pointed it out when it happened) to think Ochrow and I are sharing qts. Solar and yourharry were definitely in the spotlight at that time, of course they would be the ones who anyone posting would choose to talk about. Do you think that it is more likely that scum thrawn/ochio decided to make posts at the exact same time, about the exact same people, and use the exact same arguments? I say it is more reasonable to think it's a coincidence caused by yourharry and solar being in the town's spotlight. I am not making a wifom argument, because my argument is that you should think that the coincidence option is more likely to be true. Ochrow puts a FOS on Archrun in that post. I did not. My post contained nothing about Archrun. The post I made about Archrun did not happen until 7:11 KST, just short of two hours later. I quoted Ochrow's 5:27 post to show my agreement that Archrun should be a target, and I gave my reasons for doing so. My reasons happened to look like a rewording of what Ochrow said, because both of the things that we said were true and they were the best reasons anyone would have given for why Archrun should be suspected. The fact that I didn't mention Archrun until a post that happened after the 5:27 posts everyone is looking at, and the fact that I quoted Ochrow's earlier post to show that I agreed with him that Archrun should be pressured makes the coincidence theory even more believable. I did not know what Ochrow was writing at 5:27. After I posted my 5:27 post I read his 5:27 post and then quoted it in my next post to show my agreement with his FOS on Archrun. Despite agreeing with Ochrow about Archrun, my FOS on Archrun came up independently from Ochrow's read. I had looked at all the lurkers, read all their early game filters, and then I choose the one whose posts contained the least substance. This is all I can possibly say concerning the ochrow-thrawn qt theory. I am not making a wifom argument, as I don't think that from somebody else's perspective that the coincidence explanation and the qt explanation are equally likely. I am very hesitant to post this, but I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway just in case it will convince some of you. I think there are some people who have already closed their minds to the possibility that I'm town so I do not care if they don't accept this post. I'm not going to discuss this issue again because I don't have anything else to say about it and I don't want to waste time. If I am lynched, when I flip blue all you town players need to go back and look at the filters of whoever made arguments against me, and you should also look through my filter at the scum reads I'm currently working on. Currently I have a case against Yourharry and I've pointed out some odd statements in one of Ochrow's posts. I'm waiting on responses to my cases both from them and from everyone else. | ||
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On August 19 2012 13:30 DarthPunk wrote: Never mentioning Ochrow as a lurker despite FoS on all lurkers Your Harry has NOT ONCE called out Ochrow for lurking, Despite laying a FoS on every other lurker in the game and wanting to potentially policy lynch one of them. In this post he says it doesn't really matter which lurker is lynched, and yet he has not even mentioned Ochrow at all in his lurker group. If it doesn't matter which lurker is lynched why is Ochrow absent from all the list of lurkers that you originally FoS and why does he not mention him at all when he was clearly lurking. Harry, seeing as you and ochrow are the people I am most suspicious of, the part I quoted from darthkarma's post is what stood out to me the most, and it's also the part that you gave the weakest argument against. Basically all you said was, and I quote, "please just ignore it." | ||
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I also thought darth's argument about you making alignment based reads was compelling. In each of the cases you do it I hesitatingly believed your reasons, but like I pointed out with your constant one liners, flip flopping, and often flipflopping to the towns agreed safest scum read.... a history of doing such things over and over again throughout the entire game is a pretty compelling reason to vote for you. Not only does that behavior suggest that you are scum but it also suggests that if you are town then none of your reads can be taken seriously. However you did give explanations of all your flip flops, and if you look at them on their own and disconnected from each other they might be honest mistakes. I'm torn between voting for you or ochrow; if things stay as they are and ochrow does not answer my accusation then I will vote for him. But you're right behind him on the list. I really want to knwo what you have to say about never mentioning ochrow. | ||
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On August 19 2012 14:58 YourHarry wrote: @Thrawn What I did not want to talk about - and I realize I should not have brought it up in the first place- is what I think about Ochrow's role. I got heavy suspicion for doing something similar on Day 1, and there is no merit talking about it - except that I will probably get more suspicion for having more information than I should have - whether or not I was wrong. As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... I think that's a pretty weak excuse. The first paragraph you talk about how you don't want to talk about the things you didn't want to talk about, and the 2nd paragraph you say the reason you didn't call ochrow out is because you weren't aware that you weren't calling ochrow out? I'm not sure if I read that correctly . | ||
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On August 19 2012 15:05 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: @Thrawn You said this was not your breadcrumb post. What was your intention with the bolded part: First it seems redundant as town to say "me being lynched is not good for town" but to say in a more active form "me being lynched is good for scum" makes it feel like you are claiming a power role. Second, are you not discouraging the detective to check someone other than you or Archrun? The first part was to explain why I voted for shady. Look at that bolded part in context with the rest of the sentence and it makes sense. The second part was based on the true statement that archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. It isn't good for town to limit investigations to only two people, and because I accidentally mislynched a green player (shady) I realized that I was being too focused on my reads and not bothering to give a hard enough look at other players. | ||
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"Ochrow was just temp banned for 2 days by Plexa. That account was created on 2011-11-23 04:05:54 and had 37 posts. Reason: Actually make that a ban since I warned you earlier in the thread." source What happens now? | ||
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On August 19 2012 18:25 DarthPunk wrote: He may just be replaced, although that expression and that you were the one who noticed makes me think he went missing from your QT.... On August 19 2012 15:02 thrawn2112 wrote: we need to hear more from solar, ochrow, jhuyt, and gobalt. gobalt made a couple recent posts, solar has made one recent post (if you can call it that) but jhuyt and ochrow have been especially absent. ochrow claimed he was at a lan and fine i'll accept that but he's really going to need to make up for it during this last half of D2 On August 19 2012 15:26 thrawn2112 wrote: I was looking through ochrow's prifile to see if I could verify his claim of going to a sc2 lan and I found this: "Ochrow was just temp banned for 2 days by Plexa. That account was created on 2011-11-23 04:05:54 and had 37 posts. Reason: Actually make that a ban since I warned you earlier in the thread." source What happens now? I was investigating his claim that he was unable to post because he went to a lan. And that expression would come from both town thrawn and scum thrawn, you're just reading it as coming from a scum thrawn because I think you're already of the mindset to not believe anything I have to say. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
My vote is either going to ochrow or yourharry. I had already said that I would vote for ochrow if he doesn't respond to my case against him or if his response is worse than yourharry's response (which was pretty weak.) Now that ochio is banned I'm not sure how to proceed but I guess that means if ochrow isn't an option then I will vote for yourharry. Waiting on mod decision atm | ||
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If he is modkilled, my vote will probably go to yourharry I wanna restate this: On August 19 2012 15:02 thrawn2112 wrote: we need to hear more from solar, ochrow, jhuyt, and gobalt. gobalt made a couple recent posts, solar has made one recent post (if you can call it that) but jhuyt and ochrow have been especially absent. ochrow claimed he was at a lan and fine i'll accept that but he's really going to need to make up for it during this last half of D2 The only reason why I am not confident in my vote is because we have heard so very little from these players. It's pretty worrying to me that jhuyt, solar, and gobalt have been lurking for pretty much all of day 2. (ochrow as well but he was banned) | ||
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On August 19 2012 22:18 DarthPunk wrote: Yeha I agree 100 percent with this sentiment. I'm gonna look at jhuyt's filter... his last post was over 24 hours ago and he has only made 9 posts this game. My vote is still on ochrow (or obvious) pending what obvious has to say. | ||
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First I want to point out that Jhyut only has 9 posts, and has not posted in the last 24 hours. That's not damming evidence but it is pretty shady. I'm going to quote his posts and bold the parts I want to talk about. I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks of how I'm interpreting his posts because I may just be biased against him because of his low post count. His first post: On August 15 2012 19:36 Jhuyt wrote: Ok, after catching up on all the posts I can make my first one: Hi everybody, I have yet to play any games of forum mafia but I've played it a lot on SC 2 and even more IRL. My experience from other mafia games is that the first day is a dead day and accusations made on the first day rarely holds any water. Despite that I think that Shady's case against YH is good, he's very inconsistent which in my experience is how unexperienced scum behaves. I'm sorry, but I don't think I can be of any more use until new evidence is posted. "My experience from other mafia games is that the first day is a dead day and accusations made on the first day rarely holds any water." This is a reasonable thing to say, but he did not follow it up with something along the lines of "therefore I think we should focus on x." He mentions that the first day accusations are worthless but he doesn't offer any kind of scumhunting plan. "I'm sorry, but I don't think I can be of any more use until new evidence is posted." Again, this could be something that town jhuyt would say but when you look at how he dismisses the possibility of scumhunting without giving an alternative... his first post looks very suspicious. On August 15 2012 20:18 Jhuyt wrote: Hmm, you're right, I should try to be more helpful. On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there. On Shady: Shady tries to control the game, which is an act that I don't often see in normal townies, I've most often encountered it when a scum tries to make everybody think he's the sheriff. It is, however, a game of high risk and relies heavily on the actual sheriff being useless. He might be the sheriff as well, and this is why I think the first day is kinda silly, I don't know what to think solely based on his posts, they seem consistent. I still think that YourHarry is something scummy simply because his posting behavior is strange, on everybody else, I need more evidence before making up my mind. He starts off the post by admitting that his first post wasn't very helpful, but then everything he writes afterwards is exactly in line with the kind of stuff he wrote in his first post. "first day is kinda silly, I don't know what to think" and "I need more evidence before making up my mind." On August 16 2012 22:35 Jhuyt wrote: I'm currently at page 15 reading, I haven't been on the computer for ~15 hours so I have a lot to catch up on, I will share my thoughts asap This post gives off a null read, but I'm quoting it because nothing was said it effectively lowers his post count from 9 to 8. On August 17 2012 00:07 Jhuyt wrote: Initial thoughts on the whole Thrawn and Och thing: Looking through Och's posts about Arch I can't say that they make much sense, he just goes straight after Arch when he hadn't posted anything suspicious in my book. I can only see two reasons for him to do it. 1. He really thinks that Arch is scum for reasons that I can not grasp. If this is true I don't Och is a townie and Thrawn is scum. The reason I think this makes Thrawn scum is because he would have just saw a guy going after another and then he followed suit, like scum usually do in my experience. This is however very unlikely in my opinion, because why wouldn't he go after me who already have suspisions on me? for this reason, I don't think that Och is townie and Thrawn is scum 2. They are both scum and they decided to single out a guy This makes sense as to why they would both go on Arch when no one else is doing it, they tried both to be convincing to get as many people as possible with them and lynch Arch. This still leaves the question why they didn't go after me instead Arch with suspicions already on me. While this might not be the strongest of evidence I do think that it's very likely that Thrawn is scum and therefore I will FoS him. ##FoS thrawn2112 This post is the most scumhunting he's done so far, and I'm suspicious of it because of the nature of the post and the last line. He gives some hypothetical scum reads based on information he didn't have (the alignment of ochrow/thrawn.) And then he concludes the post by admitting his post was weak ("While this might not be the strongest of evidence") but then follows that up with ("I do think that it's very likely that Thrawn is scum") On August 17 2012 02:39 Jhuyt wrote: Thrawn, I have one question for you which I feel you haven't sufficently answered: What made you feel like Arch was more scummy than Me, Stutter, Golbat or the other lurkers up until the point you decided that Arch was the scummiest? I'm getting a null/slightly town read from this post because he is actively investigating his scumhunting case against me. On August 17 2012 04:20 Jhuyt wrote: Ok, now I know your motivation for Archrun and reading the post by mkfuba07 I don't think you're as scummy anymore. There went my entire thought process of this day, yippie. The more I think of it the more I find that either Shady or Thrawn is scum. But since my basis of suspicion against Thrawn is basically gone I really can't vote for him. I think this post + Show Spoiler + On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote: Trying to get into school is running me ragged, so this will be my only post for the moment. If anyone has specific questions they'd like me to answer, let me know so I can get to those as soon as possible (preferably before the lynch). Since Thrawn seems to be quite the target, I'm going to post my thoughts on him: 1) The SK posts seemed a bit suspicious, but when I read them I got a rather null read. I was obsing a game recently (my apologies for not knowing the exact game name) where it seemed like the entire first 24 hours was spent discussing what a theoretical Tracker should do if he even existed in the game. Asking a question of the more experienced players regarding SKs, and giving his own point of view, doesn't send off any major alarms in my head. He dropped the issue immediately after people said that they basically agreed with him, and he hasn't personally brought them up ever since. 2) Regarding his actions in the Solar issue, I tended to agree with him along the way. This quote appears to summarize his thought process quite nicely, and since it was exactly the same as my thoughts I actually got a slight townie read after it. He was suspicious at the right times, and when something didn't make sense he questioned the reasoning of whoever raised that point. 3) This quote makes me lean townie as well. Though I have stated that I didn't agree with the original argument behind YH's reads on solar/GK, Thrawn again comes to the same conclusion as me: that the entire case comes down to that single "Sigh..." comment. Though I was (and still am) suspicious of YH after that case, Thrawn's disagreement over this doesn't reveal alignment to me. The way he's thinking things through is very similar to how I did during my only previous vanilla townie game. 4) The whole Z-Boson/Ochrow situation also has me leaning town. During that entire situation, Thrawn makes efforts to alleviate the confusion that's been caused by Z-Boson's misread, when he could have just sat back and let the misunderstanding grow out of control (especially seeing how readily people in this game have been jumping on single posts to make full cases). With this, I have a firm townie read on Thrawn. 5) I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. In short, I truly think that a lynch on Thrawn would be a mislynch. I have some reads on other people that I will try to get up as soon as possible, but I have to leave to take care of school issues right now, and don't want to post half-assed theories without being able to clarify them right away. I will say that I am likely to support a relative lurker lynch, especially given that most of the discussion has been about a player who I've made it clear I have pretty strong town reads on. ##Vote: Shady Sands I have to go for the next couple of hours so I won't be here for the conclusion of the day, see ya later. First he says how he has changed his read on me, and no longer thinks I am as scummy as he thought. Then he presents the idea that "either Shady or Thrawn is scum." He decides to vote for shady, because "Thrawn's reason to accuse Arch is enough for me too consider Shady as scum." I don't think that's a good reason for him to consider shady scum. My being town is not something town players would know, and that was the basis for why I voted on Shady. (in retrospect that was very poor play by me) Jhuyt says that because he believes my reason for accusing Archrun was good so that makes Shady scum, in other words he is saying "I am accepting thrawn's defense of himself therefore shady is scum." I don't think that is a conclusion a town player would or should make. I think a lot of other town players reached that conclusion as well, but after him making the "either thrawn scum of shady scum" suggestion it looks VERY scummy. On August 18 2012 10:31 Jhuyt wrote: On the case on YourHarry: I have a really hard time following YH's posts, but he seems Scummy to me mainly because of the way he flip-flops between who he finds suspicious from the outset of the game, which is a very strange behaviour. Now this part might be because I have a hard time following his train of thought, but he uses GK's "sigh..." in + Show Spoiler + On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. And obligatory game filters: Vanilla townie: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315&user=81106 Godfather: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=81106 The first one in this post: The second on in this post: Another thing I think is really weird is how he suddenly goes after Archrun when he says that "if Shady is town then Thrawn is scum and vice versa" and suddenly decides that Archrun is the scummiest player around. The weird thing is that he right before that thinks that Shady is the scummiest read he has but his case against him isn't too strong, but he seems to not use that fact that Shady tries to do a sheep move with his "Everybody let's just vote for Thrawn" line. This should have strengthened his case against him but for some unknown reason he just drops the case entirely for the while. This behaviour is really weird as it is, but if you continue to consider the Darthpunk's idea that he's scum with Thrawn his sudden switch back to vote for Shady makes a whole lot of sense too. Those are my thought's on YH's case for the moment, right now I need to go to bed. He continues scumhunting, but he never commits to a read and a lot of his statements are hypotheticals dealing with alignments on players that haven't flipped yet. Not much substance to that post. On August 18 2012 20:00 Jhuyt wrote: I want to say that I had the exact same reaction to as he had, simply because from my experience that is the easiest way for a scum to reveal himself. I guess it could also be because you suddenly thought you should write as if you had not claimed you're vigi. From either scum or town perspective that's a really dumb idea because it is, like I have written, a very common scumslip. Right now I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt because I think that it is more urgent for us to lynch YH because of his flip-floppy ways and long posts with almost no content. I've already called him out on this post. He is giving me "the benefit of the doubt" because he wants to lynch yourharry? That's not something a town player would do. He defends that statement in his last post: On August 18 2012 21:11 Jhuyt wrote: When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum. The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression. I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion. That's a reasonable defense if you think that such a misuse of that phrase is likely but I don't think it is. He apologizes for posting it instead of just admitting it was a mistake which IMO is scummy. The last part, "YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion" gives off a town feeling to it. In summary his posts rarely give off a town read. He often states how useless his opinions are and his scumhunting is mostly based off of hypothetical scenarios containing information a town player wouldn't have. For that I want to issue a very strong FOS against Jhuyt. @Obvious: I just saw your post about gk and will post my response to it soon. | ||
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On August 20 2012 00:00 Obvious.660 wrote: Goodkarma is at the top of my suspects list right now. + Show Spoiler [the most ridiculous thing ever] + On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote: Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason .##Vote: thrawn2112 And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow ##FoS: YourHarry I'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. I'm just trying to wrap my head around this post, so bear with me. GK is convinced that Thrawn and Ochrow (now me) are of the same alignment. If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever? If we are backing up to question ourselves: "Is Thrawn actually a vigilante?" then I have something to say regarding that. It's a lot easier to prove you're a vigilante if you make a believable breadcrumb that when revealed shows you haven't lied, but we're in a pickle as far as that's concerned because all we seem to have is a weak breadcrumb and Thrawn's word that he is a vig and spent his one shot last night. On top of that, GK is CERTAIN of my alignment as scum. It seems that he knows more about me than I do, and I suggest everyone take a good hard look at GK today and see if you can agree that he's being pretty scummy here. ##VOTE: goodkarma Are you saying that goodkarma thought that I was a vig and that I was scum? I didn't get that from gk's post. Actually gk seemed to completely distrust my vig claim. I don't think I understand your argument...could you explain it again? | ||
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The "original ochrow" isn't here to defend himself and I need to hear more from Obvious before getting a read on him. I want to hear more from Obvious about his reads, and I absolutely need to hear from jhuyt. Lurkers gonna lurk......the longer you (jhuyt gobalt solar) lurk the more closely I'm going to be looking at your filters. | ||
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On August 20 2012 00:37 Obvious.660 wrote: The short answer, since I have to leave for a few hours, is: What possible motivation is there for putting two people I am confident are town on the same list and claiming with absolute certainty that they are all scum. The only answer is: it comes from someone who knows their alignments. Scum motivation. "If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever?" This was what I didn't understand, gk did not say that I was both vig and scum. I'm still confused about that part of the argument. Notice how a mislynch on me can be cast aside as "he was a lurker anyway" among the other points brought up against Ochrow. Notice how a mislynch on you can be cast aside as "his vig claim wasn't strong enough and his breadcrumb was weak so we had no reason to believe him anyway". Goodkarma has a history of policy talk that really gets the town no where, followed up by going after lurkers. Gk did some policy talk at the beginning but from what I've read in other threads opening up with policy talk is standard. I don't see how gk "has a history of policy talk that really gets the town no where" and I also disagree with the "going after lurkers" accusation. Recently gk has claimed to have scum reads on myself, you, and yourharry and most of gk's posts have been scumhunting posts. | ||
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I went over my case against him again, and his entire play just screams scum. I don't think he gave an adequate response to my post, and his recent vote for harry looks like a scum motive. On August 20 2012 00:36 Jhuyt wrote: This is the problem with YourHarry, he makes posts that consist of nothing and he makes claims he immediatly retract. It doesn't matter if you're scum or town, this is just bad play on all parts and super anti-town. For this I'm going to vote for YourHarry ##Vote: YourHarry The bolded part looks like a scummy way to get people to vote for yourharry. Prior to investigating jhuyt I had a scum read on yourharry but I think jhyut's overall play looks scummier and for that I'm going to assume that unless jhuyt flips green, yourharry's constant flip flops are just due to what yourharry described as his "over-active imagination." My initial read on yourharry after he gave his explanation for his solar/gk mason theory was that he reads too much into things and is too quick to make reads, and now I'm going to accept that again. I'm not going to vote for Obvious because I need more time to get a read on him. | ||
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Keep your vote on me if you want but for the sake of scumhunting could you read my case against jhuyt and tell me what you think? | ||
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On August 20 2012 04:50 Jhuyt wrote: Thrawn, look at the bold part of this quote: now look at the bold part of this quote: I use the same arguments and draw two wildly different conclusions from it, please be more consistent. I would also like to hear what you did not find sufficient with my defense of you FoS, it's pretty scummy to dodge the bullet like you did.[/QUOTE] What bullet did I dodge that makes me look scummy? You dodged the bullet. I made a very long case against you and you only bothered to respond to a small portion of it. The parts you did respond to you basically restated what I said. My case was that in each of your posts, you deny scumhunting responsibilty by giving excuses such as "I don't know" and "first day is silly" and other example that I pointed out. Most of your posts are suspicious on their own, and when you look at all of them as a whole the picture gets even worse. | ||
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On August 20 2012 04:50 Jhuyt wrote: Thrawn, look at the bold part of this quote: now look at the bold part of this quote: I use the same arguments and draw two wildly different conclusions from it, please be more consistent. I would also like to hear what you did not find sufficient with my defense of you FoS, it's pretty scummy to dodge the bullet like you did. What bullet did I dodge that makes me look scummy? You dodged the bullet. I made a very long case against you and you only bothered to respond to a small portion of it. The parts you did respond to you basically restated what I said. My case was that in each of your posts, you deny scumhunting responsibilty by giving excuses such as "I don't know" and "first day is silly" and other example that I pointed out. Most of your posts are suspicious on their own, and when you look at all of them as a whole the picture gets even worse. | ||
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On August 20 2012 05:08 goodkarma wrote: As the deadline is now only 4 hours away, I would like to encourage everyone to make a post to either re-affirm or change your votes. At the very least please discuss your reads on the two players that have gained the most support: Thrawn and YourHarry. If you could also chip in on the others who have received a vote (Obvious and myself), that would be great .jhuyt too please | ||
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On August 20 2012 05:45 goodkarma wrote: @Thrawn: I looked to the latest votecount, and missed your vote. Jhuyt, too, should be discussed. As the only person on the list I haven't discussed on day 2, let me briefly share my thoughts. I did find Jhuyt scummy enough to vote for day 1, and I don't feel the reasons I originally had for voting him have really changed. And then there's the quote you brought up in your voting post: In other words, Jhuyt has chosen to prioritize lynching YourHarry even if he is only a bad town. So in one word, yes. I find him scummy. However, I never really had a strong scum read on him. My day one vote was a combination of a vote based on wishy-washy behavior and semi-lurking. Combined with this one "scumslip," I don't see enough there to convince me he's scummier than Obvious, as "scumslips" can be made by town or scum. Especially with Obvious so hesitant to present any kind of defense against my case posts against his predecessor (and by extension, him) or him. What did you think about the case I made against him at the top of the page, especially the summary? I think both his words and his actions throughout the game have been scummy. On August 20 2012 00:11 thrawn2112 wrote: In summary his posts rarely give off a town read. He often states how useless his opinions are and his scumhunting is mostly based off of hypothetical scenarios containing information a town player wouldn't have. For that I want to issue a very strong FOS against Jhuyt. | ||
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Many of the accusations you made against me other people also made, and I responded to those. On the point of my reading abilities and me proclaiming newbie (which I admit is something I have not responded to until now) I want to point out that a lot of my newbie questions were things I posted in the thread before the game even started. And saying that I'm scum because I didn't (green /green) a question I asked before the game even started (which other people did as well) to me seems about the weakest reason you could use to call me scum. Having not ever played mafia before a lot of what was in the OP and guides didn't make sense because I had no experience of what context to apply the stuff I was reading, so just because I read a guide did not mean I could have understood everything I read. | ||
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the vig shot I claimed was completely in line with everything I had said during the last half of D1 and all of N1 | ||
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GG town it's gonna be rough. My advice is to not settle on one target when scumhunting because this stifles discussion which is exactly what the mafia wants. The game started out great for me... but the last few days have been pretty rough. There were several times in D1 and D2 when I gave up hope and decided I was going to take a break from the game, but my mind kept returning to the game and I kept being drawn back to my computer to refresh the tl mafia forum. I stayed up for over 24 hours leading up to the end of D1 and when shady flipped scum I was sort of in a state of shock. I only managed to sleep for about 4 hours and woke up to start posting, and when I saw that hardly anyone else was interested in discussion I got pretty mad. Look at my filter and you can see that I've put the most time into the game and what really irritates me is that there are several people who don't seem to care at all about participating. I think some of you did not even read the whole thread, it looked like people were just skimming pages and reading parts that either mention themselves or scumreads they were talking about. And good job lurkers, you really messed things up. Next game I will be seriously pushing for a lurker lynch policy. Also shame on you guys that voted at the start of D2 then went afk. VERY BAD play. everyone GLHF and come join me in the next newbie game if you get killed in time ps. crazy coincidence on the ochrow/thrawn post timing right? | ||
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On August 26 2012 15:02 Z-BosoN wrote: My two biggest game-losing mistakes were: 1) NKing Jhuyt instead of goodkarma YH suggested it Like I said, the JHuyt kill was just afhauisdhfaf????aegfa!??. lol | ||
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I noticed from reading the scumqt that the scum capitalized on yh's meta lol so good job on that one lol. | ||
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On August 26 2012 17:49 Obvious.660 wrote: My play last night started to slip drastically, I was heading into a sort of a depression and I really wanted nothing to do with anything or anyone, so I just kinda phoned it in, if that wasn't apparent from my previous few posts. I feel for ya, the same kind of thing happened to me from N1 onwards. I used the game as a distraction from real life problems and I ended up staying awake and posting for over 24 hours at one point. The added stress of being tunneled the whole game by pretty much everybody made it hard to post but the game was interesting and exciting enough for me to commit myself to it. TBH I was so fucking relieved when I got lynched. GG everyone it was a crazy and interesting first game. | ||
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On August 26 2012 18:33 Obvious.660 wrote: Okay my fellow players. Post-game question for you who were suspicious of Ochrow and wanted me to explain his play. Now that we have no pretenses, what kinds of things were you looking for? I honestly, laden with the curse of knowing his role, read it all as bad town (quite clearly I was almost as bad as him at the role). I'd love to sub in again, but what kinds of things specifically were you looking for? Was it just willingness to analyze his filter and figure it out for you? I certainly didn't feel like that would do much good, since I wasn't the one interacting with him. Any input from those questioning me would be appreciated, I want to try this social experiment again sometime. The thing that started all of it was that ochrow and I made posts at exactly the same time (down to the minute) and we talked about the same shit and came to the same conclusions. | ||
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On August 27 2012 17:31 DarthPunk wrote: You had no breadcrumbs, You seemed scummy as hell, your claim was weak in that it was not clear and the Archun flip made you look really bad. It was of my opinion that your claim was a desperate scum looking to hide after the real vig had shot archun. And you clai was so bad that the real vig did not see the point in counter claiming and was instead being vocal about you being lynched. At the end I was worried that there had been no counterclaim and that you may have been telling the truth and thus I went for YH instead. i considered breadcrumbing and even pm'd marv asking if it was allowed but for some reason i did not follow through. oh well first game... what ya gonna do | ||
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