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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 11 2012 07:52 Dandel Ion wrote: No matter the result, I'm pretty sure it was better than what we would've ran into I want to upgrade Dandel and downgrade iamperfection on the townie list: Really strong town reads: Hapa, Lvdr, Sideni, Axero Strong town reads: Shadysands, Dandel Maybe town: Null read: Promo, iamperfection scum reads: Kronen Need to re-evaluate mkfuba. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
It seems like they know each other, maybe in real life, ...... etc etc. Can we talk about this? I think mod warned us not to? Please confirm. In the very least, Axero's interactions with mkfuba does not clear mkfuba in any way. And Mkfuba is still suspicious for reasons I provided earlier. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On August 11 2012 07:45 Shady Sands wrote: I'm still very suspicious of Lvdr. Flipping through his recent filter, I see nothing except one-liner posts on who is lurking. This is not good analysis by any means. Also I'm highly suspicious of this line: The logical way to avoid a no-lynch is to generate a tunnel 30 minutes before deadline on a player that no one had voted for yet. The only way this would make sense is if Lvdr somehow knows that other people will easily join him on such a rapid lynch vote. This would only make sense if Lvdr was mason or scum. I'm suspicious of Shady. His refusal to believe that Lvdr didn't want to vote for either (a) himself, or (b) someone he thought was innocent(Sideni), is strange to me. What did he expect Lvdr to do in that situation? Voting for a likely lynch is only pro-town if the person being voted on is actually suspicious. It is better, in a situation where the likely candidates are not scummy, to vote for someone who is scummy. So, instead of voting for a likely (easier to lynch) townie, it is best to vote for an unlikely (more difficult to lynch) scum. Shady seemed to be arguing that Lvdr's attempt at a no-lynch would be more likely to succeed if he voted for one of the people who were already close to being lynched. While this is true, the goal of lynching is to find scum, not to lynch for the sake of lynching. This read as pretty scummy to me. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#578 Now consider that GK was not included on his list of lurky and incoherent posters. I feel that he should have been pretty high consideration for such a list, but you have no evidence of my thoughts at the time. I hope you will consider GK's posts up to that point and decide if he fit the bill. This spoiler contains unfinished thoughts that I have a sketchy feeling about, but can't put my finger on. + Show Spoiler + On August 11 2012 07:50 Shady Sands wrote: Got it. Well then that cements my read on Lvdr. I think this is an attempt by scum to either mislynch a townie or bus one of their own. Highly suspicious. On August 11 2012 08:40 Shady Sands wrote: Wow. Town is either crazy good this game or scum is bussing. Given that it's day 1 I'm going to say the former is more likely. This is just a little bit of a contradiction that I found... interesting. Day 1 he is claiming that the GK bandwagon is an intentional mislynch or a bus, but after the flip he says that because it was day 1, it probably wasn't a bus. Together the two posts say a whole lot of nothing. I feel like there might be something else in there that I just can't see, but at the moment I can't stop my mind from going around in circles. I need to rest at this point, but my quick reads on the other three: YourHarry: His main focus seems to have been telling me I'm too good at being town. He gave me far more pressure than I imagined I'd get from the whole thread on these two posts. His attempt to turn my pro-town plans into evidence of scummy fabrication is annoying, and defending my reads against these attempts is distracting me from other matters, but I can't tell if it's scummy. Kronen: His vote timing, as well as Shady's, send off some alarms in my head. If they were the remainder of the scumteam, then they sure slipped in right at the nick of time. I was working on this line of reasoning when I realized that I wasn't going to be able to keep my eyes open long enough to make it through. I'll flush it out in the morning. Promethelax: The most notable thing about Promethelax to me is how little I've thought about Promethelax. I'll go through his filter when I've rested. It takes me forever to analyze things, and I couldn't start a filter from scratch right now. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
On August 11 2012 14:39 YourHarry wrote: Regarding Dandel, I agree that he was one of the first three to get on GK bandwagon and without much pressure from you. He voluntarily and very quickly jumped on GK wagon. Aside from this post, which makes me suspicious: I want to upgrade Dandel and downgrade iamperfection on the townie list: Really strong town reads: Hapa, Lvdr, Sideni, Axero Strong town reads: Shadysands, Dandel Maybe town: Null read: Promo, iamperfection scum reads: Kronen Need to re-evaluate mkfuba. I'm going to read through the whole thing properly and post my thoughts before the night ends - But this is something I can clear up really quick: At that point, I was 99% sure Sideni would've been a misslynch. The quote was meant to convey that, whatever goodkarma flips, town would be better off in the end than if we would've lynched Sideni. No matter if I like his play or not, he was active and contributing, while GK was lurking and NOT contributing at all. In an earlier post by me, I call GK a "safe" lynch, because that's what he was to me: Good chance of scum, no real loss if town. Note that I was never 100% convinced GK is scum, I think that's impossible to say from 2 votes. But GK was our best lynch at that time (no matter his flip, since he didn't flip yet), and the part you quoted is me expressing that. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
On August 11 2012 20:55 Dandel Ion wrote: Note that I was never 100% convinced GK is scum, I think that's impossible to say from 2 votes. But GK was our best lynch at that time (no matter his flip, since he didn't flip yet), and the part you quoted is me expressing that. WBWOP: bolded should read: two POSTS | ||
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Kronen
United States732 Posts
@Hapa: would you like me to start defending myself, or can I just wait until day? I would rather just get on with my substantive posts. I am not a blue townie and am less valuable in that respect, so maybe getting scum-killed would be a good thing. I would urge a medic vote on Hapa. At this point, I figure the scum know that the medic vote is going to Hapa. If there were one person in this game to have medic protection it would be him. This also means, he's (sadly) not our Korean War vet. It would be so beautiful Hapa if you were the cop... hot damn. On the other hand, you're probably going to role-blocked if you're not assassinated. Can the JK throw himself in jail? and also, I don't think jailing the goon would stop a night-time mafia assassination, buuut... if there's only one mafia left in the game and he/she is jailed, does that stop the night-time assassination? I hope hope the JK is used to protect another Hapa strong-townie read such as lvdr or iamp. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
It is hard to tell if he's role hunting but this last post is bunch of fluff. "It would be be so beautiful Hapa if you were the cop... hot damn."??? I just ... don't get it. This is beyond me. @mkfuba I wasn't quite saying you are too good to be pro-town. It just seems that your reasons for your earlier actions, which you provided hours later, seem made up - especially since you never mention any hint of such reasoning in your initial posts. I already read your defense regarding this, and we just disagree. For now, we should focus on other matter. But why are you so worried about it? No one else seems to think you are scum. | ||
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Kronen
United States732 Posts
 . Calm down big guy. We'll get more information from tonight's action and then move forward from there. Go find YourSally and do whatever you do.Unless I am mistaken that we don't lynch again during night. Am I correct that lynch votes happen at the end of the day period? Also, I did edit and redact that last post a fair amount so that it wasn't role-hunting. You can turn it into a role-hunt if you want YH. There's a 1/9 chance that the jailer could jail the roleblocker, or there's a 1/2 chance the jailer could protect a high profile townie target from death. That's my rationale. Stepping out for lunch date for the next 2-3 hours. I'll write up what I'm thinking when I get back. -- On reflection: I'm sorry I got a little hot under the collar during this post YH. You, and everyone else, can judge an emotional reaction from me by this post. Cheers! | ||
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iamperfection
United States9639 Posts
On August 11 2012 07:31 iamperfection wrote: Ive already stated why i dont like axxero as a lynch i think he was being honest in his first posts. I think goodkarma of the lurkers looks like scum to me. He has tendancy to make little things seem to be more important than they really are. Such as sedini grap of the english language as well as making a big deal about jokes Also he seems to be setting himself to sofetning the blow he ends up switching his vote on to axxero. When i made this post i thought we were going to have a bit of discusion on who of the lurkers that were presented to us. I made this mini case because i thought goodkarma was the best and i have previously stated why i didn't think axxero was mafia. The suspicion piled up on goodkarma on other just before that and i was reading the filters of goodkarma and prom. If you look at the time stamps people started stating their gut feelings just before i posted my mini observations. I think this gives a little more credit to me as town. The voting happened very quickly after that and my concern for a no lynch was legitmate because i didnt know how many people were here so that is why i didnt vote right away. That is also why i followed up with the comment about me making an emergency vote if neccesary to avoid a no lynch. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
Still relatively undecided on him - His play is not as "dumb" as it was in game 0.5, but that doesn't tell me shit - even if he rolled scum again, he would know that the same behavior won't fly again, given that we all have his previous roll fresh in mind. He soft-defended Lvdr early on, even stating that he think he's town. He also stated he didn't think Axero, Sideni or lvdr to be good lynches - WAY before it was clear to me. He attacked mkfuba and voted him, and didn't change it up all game. Conclusion: YH had a strong scum read on mkuba, and STUCK with it. I feel like it would've been easy for him to sheep onto somebody. While he kinda ruled out the possibility of voting for Ax, Sideni or lvdr himself, there was plenty opportunity to suggest a mislynch without drawing much attention. Verdict: Slight town read to me, scum possible. Kronen: It's weird. He has a bunch of posts, but he doesn't share his reads at all - He has one post FoS'ing 3 people at the same time (lvdr, axero and me), without giving any reasoning (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=38#751) On being asked to lay out his reasons, he posts this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=39#773 Yet again, did not post anything concerning his FoS's, just soft-defends Sideni. Next post he says his preferences change. Fair enough, but he still has not posted any scum-reads. He's there to vote on GK, but it's a bit too late to still consider it a town-tell. So it's a null-tell. He posts a super-useful objective writeup of the GK lynch (marry me pls) I love it and it's useful and everything, but it's frustrating that you still have not posted your reads. You promised to post your reads during the night - fair enough. I shall wait for it. Verdict: TBD mkfuba: I considered you a scumteam together with Sideni during day 1. Scratch that, I was SURE you were a scumteam. Things have changed. Your case on Lvdr was not bad by any means - unfortunately you suffer from 2 problems with it: 1) it was too early in the day to really HAVE any useful reads/cases 2) lvdr, who your only case is against turns out to be a strong town read (for me at least) You explain you lurking afterwards with the Axero/PM debacle - I'll give you that. You seem to pick up your pace, so keep at it. Like Kronen, you voted for goodkarma, but too late to guess the alignment out of it - yet another null tell. Verdict: Null tell. Shady Sands: You have a bunch of reasonable posts, and you outline your vote on Lvdr well. Nothing extensive, but nothing really scummy to find in there, imo. Something I consider a town tell: You didn't jump ship when the GK train was in the making, not even when it was clear GK would be the lynch. If you were mafia, I feel like you would've jumped just to not look suspicious - town doesn't need to worry about looking suspicious. You had accepable reasons for believing lvdr is scum. -> townie points A small detail that's also a small town tell I'd like to highlight: When Sideni and I started digging into each other, you posted this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#561 As mafia, you could've sat back and let town bus Sideni (remember: that ALMOST happened) - since you'd have known everyone's alignments, it would have been an EASY mislynch with a lot of destructive finger-pointing afterwards. I'm leaning town for you. Promethelax My #1 scum read at the moment. + Show Spoiler + Some meta to start it off: In game 0.5 he opened the game by posting this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=10#190 My highlight out of there is: My strengths in mafia games are my ability to build strong cases and to post in an active and pro-town manner. He has not done any of that this game. Spoilered because it's not really an argumentOn to the real case: 1) He accused me on being scum on my SECOND post in the thread. on the basis of "lurking" not fitting my "meta". Nevermind the fact that day/night posts are at 1 AM for me. 75% of my "lurking" time, I've just been sleeping. Whatever, he might just be PMS'ing. I conceded that I didn't post shit yet + Show Spoiler + (as an european I'm pretty used to NA people forgetting about timezones and shit) next: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=25#498 Roundhouse kicking a few people. Wouldn't be too bad, but what stands out is that while berateing people for not commenting on what happened so far, he didn't actually comment on any of that either - he just picks 4-5 people and casts general suspicion everywhere. Asks iamperfection why he's so free with his FoS, when the first thing he did himself is FoS'ing YourHarry and lvdr IN HIS FIRST POST, without any good reason. Some posts questioning and passively accusing people inbetween. Then he finally takes it on his shoulders to try and contribute: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624 What stands out first is how long the post is. What stands out right after that is how he says NOTHING with it. He casts general suspicion everywhere he can (I'm seeing a pattern). In just this one post calls scummy: Sideni (good-as-confirmed town), Axero (flipped town), me (am town), lvdr (strong town read) iamperfection (decent town read) and YourHarry (town-ish, as I stated above) All his reads are weak as hell, even back then, and outright silly now. I personally interpret his Sideni vote as trying to get the mislynch train rolling He then has a shitton of oneliners/no-content posts. Whenever possible, he also tries his best to insult me, which is kinda weird, for scum to openly antagonize people, but whatever. Doesn't even try to think about the Sideni situation, leaving his vote on him. By that time even I, one of the biggest pushers for a Sideni lynch, didn't think Sideni was scum anymore. He even insults me (nothing new in itself) for jumping off the Sideni train in time. I see no town motivations ANYWHERE in Promethelax' play. Verdict: SCUM Those are my thoughts on people as it stands right now, tell me if i missed anything/if you don't follow my logic anywhere. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
To get it out there, TOWN RANKINGS Hapa and Sideni are as-good-as-confirmed townies. lvdr is a strong town read iamperfection is a solid town read. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
@ Kronen - please post your thoughts on the other players (ShadySands, YourHarry, mkfuba, Promethelax) before the end of the night. That is all. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
For your convenience, GoodKarma got lynched. Kronen posted a nice summary of things here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=42#840 ...and you are the #1 scumread of several players in the game right now. I ask you to provide your reads: @ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions. TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above! | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On August 11 2012 23:33 YourHarry wrote: OK. Could we just lynch Kronen next? It is hard to tell if he's role hunting but this last post is bunch of fluff. "It would be be so beautiful Hapa if you were the cop... hot damn."??? I just ... don't get it. This is beyond me. @mkfuba I wasn't quite saying you are too good to be pro-town. It just seems that your reasons for your earlier actions, which you provided hours later, seem made up - especially since you never mention any hint of such reasoning in your initial posts. I already read your defense regarding this, and we just disagree. For now, we should focus on other matter. But why are you so worried about it? No one else seems to think you are scum. I'm going to think more on the people I haven't given much thought to before giving a solid read, but Kronen is still on my list. I'm hoping to find something concrete to support my idea of a Kronen/Shady scumteam, but at the moment it's all based around the timing of the final vote, and where they both ended up in relation to the vote. I'll post this theory no matter what, especially now that I've mentioned it twice. As for the rest, I understand. I have no suspicions of you that I could consider completely OMGUS free, so it's best to focus on scumhunting now, instead of reiterating points from a 2-day old case that no longer has any backing. Onwards and upwards! | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Well done! We're down one mafia at no real loss to us (sorry Axero). I don't think we have any confirmed townies from this. Scum d1 bus and look at yourselves, everyone has all these 'confirmed' town reads and if there is even one scum in that group (which lets play the numbers game, there almost 100% is) this was an excellent pay by scum. Instead of a mislynch they sacrificed one of their own (probably the least active) and got mad town cred. The guy who stands out to me as having the most to gain from this is, hold on to your hats, Hapa think about this. Hapa has been very active but not provided a lot of analysis, he gives us 'gut feelings' about who scum are. His gut feeling has been 'proven' right once. Now he is confirmed townie in the eyes of most of town. I don't see it to be honest, his posting has been similar to his scum play in XXI and his gut feeling throw me off totally. Hapa is my biggest scum read at the moment. I would put the second scum between Dandel and Shady: Dandel says that he can't comment on his feelings on me On August 11 2012 07:28 Dandel Ion wrote: I don't think i can comment on Promethelax, I'm rather angry at him after all. I certainly wouldn't miss him, but a mislynch is a mislynch, and I don't feel like I can gauge if he's scum or not.[/b[ I'd be happy to bus him though. Axero was never that strong a scum read to me - though you can never be sure. I have stated previously that I think you are biased against him, Hapa. I'd rather lynch him, than have a no-lynch, but he's not my priority. Goodkarma would be your "safe" pick for a lynch. He didn't post anything scummy in itself, but then again, he didn't post in the first place. Might be our best chance until he is asked about it, when I am his biggest scum read. I hadn't psoted at all between these two posts. So what changed? I'd say that Dandel realized that there was some town sentiment against me and it was safe to make his move. Promethelax My #1 scum read at the moment. [spoiler]Some meta to start it off: In game 0.5 he opened the game by posting this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=10#190 My highlight out of there is: My strengths in mafia games are my ability to build strong cases and to post in an active and pro-town manner. He has not done any of that this game. Spoilered because it's not really an argument[/spoiler]On to the real case: 1) He accused me on being scum on my SECOND post in the thread. on the basis of "lurking" not fitting my "meta". Nevermind the fact that day/night posts are at 1 AM for me. 75% of my "lurking" time, I've just been sleeping. Whatever, he might just be PMS'ing. I conceded that I didn't post shit yet [spoiler](as an european I'm pretty used to NA people forgetting about timezones and shit)[/spoiler] and thought he'd let it rest. NOPE next: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=25#498 Roundhouse kicking a few people. Wouldn't be too bad, but what stands out is that while berateing people for not commenting on what happened so far, he didn't actually comment on any of that either - he just picks 4-5 people and casts general suspicion everywhere. Asks iamperfection why he's so free with his FoS, when the first thing he did himself is FoS'ing YourHarry and lvdr IN HIS FIRST POST, without any good reason. Some posts questioning and passively accusing people inbetween. Then he finally takes it on his shoulders to try and contribute: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624 What stands out first is how long the post is. What stands out right after that is how he says NOTHING with it. He casts general suspicion everywhere he can (I'm seeing a pattern). In just this one post calls scummy: Sideni (good-as-confirmed town), Axero (flipped town), me (am town), lvdr (strong town read) iamperfection (decent town read) and YourHarry (town-ish, as I stated above) All his reads are weak as hell, even back then, and outright silly now. I personally interpret his Sideni vote as trying to get the mislynch train rolling He then has a shitton of oneliners/no-content posts. Whenever possible, he also tries his best to insult me, which is kinda weird, for scum to openly antagonize people, but whatever. Doesn't even try to think about the Sideni situation, leaving his vote on him. By that time even I, one of the biggest pushers for a Sideni lynch, didn't think Sideni was scum anymore. He even insults me (nothing new in itself) for jumping off the Sideni train in time. I see no town motivations ANYWHERE in Promethelax' play. Verdict: SCUM Those are my thoughts on people as it stands right now, tell me if i missed anything/if you don't follow my logic anywhere. Shady because of his whole play: The most damning thing though is that he comes into the thread during the GK lynch and tries to deflect the suspicion onto lvdr. Shady says: [B]On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote: Wait you guys are doing a last minute pile on GoodKarma because his play is too clean? What? at a time when having a single person not vote for GK would have lead to a mislynch. I would have been convinced not to vote for GK with that, in fact I don't think I would have voted him at all but I think this was a play to get anyone off of the wagon. So for now: Scum reads are Hapa, Dandel and Shady Town reads are: suck it scum, you won't get extra information out of me | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On August 12 2012 02:53 Hapahauli wrote: To be honest mkfuba - it's kinda blowing my mind that you have a null read on Promethelax in spite of Dandel Ion's recently posted case, as well as my own suspicions posted last night. Surely you have some sort of read on him? If you're referring to his case in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#891 I've just read it and it he has some good points. I've yet to look through Prom's filter, as I've been awake for less than an hour after my previous post (saying that I hadn't given Prom much consideration yet), and I wanted to respond to direct questions of me before going into more reads. They are coming, I assure you. | ||
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