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Newbie Mini Mafia XXIII - Page 43

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Kronen
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States732 Posts
August 11 2012 02:03 GMT
#841
EBWOP: there is editorial content around the quotes section... apologies I meant for that to go in my next big post....

ugh oh well....
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
August 11 2012 02:22 GMT
#842
Great job guys.
Never!
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 11 2012 02:25 GMT
#843
On August 11 2012 08:34 Lvdr wrote:
I'm on my phone, so I cannot start a real case, but shady will be my first target tomorrow. His vote looks pretty suspicious right now.


Note that I reconfirmed my vote on you even after people hit the 6 votes necessary to lynch GK. If I was really scum, why would I do that? This post just reeks of OMGUS.

That being said, great job town on wagoning the bastard. I'll admit, I thought his posting was similar to his XXII meta (where he was town), so I didn't think he looked that scummy.

In terms of confirmed townies, I'm going to say that Hapa is almost for sure confirmed now, since it's very unlikely scum would bus the GF on D1 (at most they would bus a goon.) By the same logic, the first guy to vote for GK, Lvdr, should also be cleared.

Hapa, Lvdr, what are your top reads going into D2?
Что?
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:32 GMT
#844
Hai Town!

Congrats on an awesome lynch! Going from a mislynch to lynching the freggin' godfather in 45 minutes is awesome-sauce. We got such a crazy amount of information from the lynch, and I feel safe to say that a couple of players have been basically confirmed townie. Before I start, a couple of observations:
  • 99.99999% sure that mafia did not bus GoodKarma. It makes no sense to bus a player with zero suspicions, and there's no way GoodKarma himself would have agreed to getting bussed like that.
  • This lynch happened really really suddenly and without resistance. This suggests to me that most, if not all of the members behind the lynch were townie


STRONG Townies! (95%+)
Sideni - GK voted for Sideni in a situation where the Sideni bandwagon was starting to become strong. Furthermore, GK was tunneling Sideni from the beginning (when suspicion on Sideni was rather weak) GK's vote then subsequent lurk confirms Sideni as town, as there's no way mafia would take that kind of risk in the early game.

Lvdr - Lvdr was a huge player behind the GK lynch. Lvdr also is the first to cast a vote on GoodKarma. This should speak for itself - if Lvdr knew GK was godfather, he would have pushed to lynch another of the players I had suggested (Axero for example).

iamperfection - Iamperfection voted for GK when it still wasn't clear the lynch would come together (he was vote #4). Furthermore, the following post is a strong town-tell to me:

On August 11 2012 07:23 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 11 2012 07:22 Hapahauli wrote:
We have a couple of people here, me, Dandel Ion, lvdr, and Sideni confrimed. ShadySands and Kronen have posted recently. Between us 6, we can swing a lynch in a better direction.

Possible Lynch Tarets

GoodKarma - hasn't stuck his neck out, has played semi-lurky, and has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni. It's his lack of involvement in this game that I find strange. Townies are naturally suspicious of several people and constantly switch suspicions (unless emotional). GoodKarma has played suspiciously "clean," and I think he could be mafia tunneling suspicion on two easy targets.

Axero - his "ragequit" gives me a slight townie read, but I find his other behavior suspicious. I've made my views clear.

Promethelax - Comes in, points a lot of fingers, picks a fight with Dandel Ion, then leaves. Call it a gut feeling, but I find his behavior strange.

i dont count as being here?

iamperfection could have EASILY lurked and not mentioned his presence. Instead, he declared himself availible and casted a vote. I can't see mafia doing this.

I'll go over and see if I can find any more confirmed townies or people I think are town. Scumreads to follow as well
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:40 GMT
#845
A couple of people I'm leaning Townie on:
Note, none of these players are confirmed by any means, there are just people I feel are likely town

Kronen - Kronen was the 6th and securing lynch vote for GoodKarma. While I won't rule out the possibility of a bus vote, given how sudden the lynch was on GK, I find it hard to believe that mafia could be that decisive in that situation.

ShadySands - Even though he's been slighly lurky, his play has been noticably different from his mafia play in day 0.5. Furthermore, his vote on Lvdr is something I don't feel mafia would do. He draws attention to himself too much near the lynch deadline. My read here is much weaker than the one on Kronen - consider it a "gut feeling"
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:43 GMT
#846
People I have null reads on:

YourHarry - He still hasn't done jack. His case on mkfuba was pretty bad, and it feels to me like he's playing without information this game (as opposed to last game where he made a pretty coherent case on Lvdr). Gut-feeling he's bad town, but no substance behind this one.

mkfuba - Had a pretty nice case early D1 agaist lvdr, but was majorly lurky toward the lynch deadline. I give him some townie points for his case, and minus a couple for his lurkiness.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:45 GMT
#847
Oh DOH!

I forgot to put Dandel Ion under confirmed townies! He helped push the GK lynch, and this quote is mega-townie to me:

On August 11 2012 07:28 Dandel Ion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 11 2012 07:22 Hapahauli wrote:
We have a couple of people here, me, Dandel Ion, lvdr, and Sideni confrimed. ShadySands and Kronen have posted recently. Between us 6, we can swing a lynch in a better direction.

Possible Lynch Tarets

GoodKarma - hasn't stuck his neck out, has played semi-lurky, and has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni. It's his lack of involvement in this game that I find strange. Townies are naturally suspicious of several people and constantly switch suspicions (unless emotional). GoodKarma has played suspiciously "clean," and I think he could be mafia tunneling suspicion on two easy targets.

Axero - his "ragequit" gives me a slight townie read, but I find his other behavior suspicious. I've made my views clear.

Promethelax - Comes in, points a lot of fingers, picks a fight with Dandel Ion, then leaves. Call it a gut feeling, but I find his behavior strange.

I don't think i can comment on Promethelax, I'm rather angry at him after all. I certainly wouldn't miss him, but a mislynch is a mislynch, and I don't feel like I can gauge if he's scum or not. I'd be happy to bus him though.

Axero was never that strong a scum read to me - though you can never be sure. I have stated previously that I think you are biased against him, Hapa.
I'd rather lynch him, than have a no-lynch, but he's not my priority.

Goodkarma would be your "safe" pick for a lynch. He didn't post anything scummy in itself, but then again, he didn't post in the first place.
Might be our best chance


Given 3 options, he picks the godfather. Mafia wouldn't do that.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9645 Posts
August 11 2012 02:49 GMT
#848
you forgot to list yourself confirmed townie
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:50 GMT
#849
...So that leaves Promethelax as my top scumread at the moment.

I find this post incredibly scummy:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=32#624

He nitpicks and criticizes a lot of people, followed by a vote on Sideni. Near the lynch deadline, Promethelax picks a mini-fight with Dandel Ion when Dandel Ion BACKS OFF SIDENI, and severely tunnels Sideni until he leaves for work.

#1 scumread for sure here.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:50 GMT
#850
@ iamperfection - I kinda assumed everyone thought so at this point lol
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9645 Posts
August 11 2012 02:52 GMT
#851
On August 11 2012 11:50 Hapahauli wrote:
@ iamperfection - I kinda assumed everyone thought so at this point lol

yourharry is in this game.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:52 GMT
#852
So while Promethelax is my top scumread, please don't let the other non-confirmed townies (YourHarry, mkfuba, ShadySands, and Kronen) off the hook. The only way town can lose right now is if we tunnel our suspicions too much. Keep your mind open, and always remember the lynch actions of D1 when pushing scumreads in the future.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:55 GMT
#853
Also, my suspicions regarding the non-confirmed townies will very likely change before the end of the night cycle. My reads so far are only based off the voting actions, and there are many other things I have yet to scrutinize.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 02:57 GMT
#854
Lastly, PLEASE proofread my posts and make sure my logic makes sense regarding confirmed townies. It would be pretty disasterous if I made a mistake about a "confirmed townie" and they ended up being mafia.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
August 11 2012 02:58 GMT
#855
On August 11 2012 11:50 Hapahauli wrote:
...So that leaves Promethelax as my top scumread at the moment.

I find this post incredibly scummy:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=32#624

He nitpicks and criticizes a lot of people, followed by a vote on Sideni. Near the lynch deadline, Promethelax picks a mini-fight with Dandel Ion when Dandel Ion BACKS OFF SIDENI, and severely tunnels Sideni until he leaves for work.

#1 scumread for sure here.


Nice list, Hapa. I think Prome is scum too. Here's my reasoning:


On August 10 2012 06:11 Promethelax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 10 2012 06:02 Hapahauli wrote:
Hapa: I'm glad you are here so that I'll have someone to talk to. Although given that you and I are both known for active scum play I won't be able to get reads out of your activity I look forward to getting reads from your play. What is your opinion of Dandel?


Nothing much to say on Dandel, as he still hasn't done anything. Like really - he's posted nothing of substance 24 hours into the day. I'm naturally suspicious of people who do not stick their neck out, but I have no grounds to FOS him or anything like that. For now, I'll stick with my suspicions against iamperfection that I recently posted.


fair enough, I disagree with you that there is nothing to read in his nothing posts but I see your point of view. Imperfection is a weird one for me since I played scum with him and his play feels scummy but not like his scum play in XIX obviously we're all new and our meta is still somewhat fluid. I have him in my scum column right now but there are people who have posted nothing or next to nothing who seem as scummy and I'd prefer to live the loud scum alive than the quiet one, people who talk a lot will talk themselves into a corner.

Shady: How did Axero make it onto your list? You gave reasons for lvdr being suspicious but not Axero. I don't like a name just being thrown in there without a case, it is good play for scum and bad for town. Give me and the rest of town an explanation for throwing his name in there, right now with just his name and no reasoning you are on my scummy list.

I guess I have to remove my FoS on Harry, he is just Harry. I'll keep my eye on him but I think that might just be my policy from now on: watch Harry.


Prom seems to be wanting other people to keep pointing fingers at each other. Note how he questions most everyone's cases by asking why they're not considering other targets, then quickly settles down on a lynch target of Sideni... after he accuses half the town. This returns to the motive question: Scum want to spread town's focus among too many cases to thoroughly analyze. I think this is what Prom is doing here, and this is why I'm going to be watching him very closely from now on.

## FoS Promethelax
Что?
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 03:17 GMT
#856
@ ShadySands - any other players stick out to you other than promethelax? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the other 3 non-confirmed players (mkfuba, YourHarry, Kronen)
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 03:20 GMT
#857
Actually, the above goes for EVERYONE NOT CONFIRMED:

@ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions.

TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above!
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
August 11 2012 04:12 GMT
#858
I would like to sheep you on Promothelax. But why do you think my case on mkfuba is bad? I still think he's prob scum along with Promothelax.

In addition, I expressed my strong pro-town sentiments toward the three most accused players on Day 1 - Lvdr, sideni, and Axero. That must count for something.

I was at work all day and just came back from the bar. I will see what I can do to contribute.
Never!
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 04:20 GMT
#859
On August 11 2012 13:12 YourHarry wrote:
I would like to sheep you on Promothelax. But why do you think my case on mkfuba is bad? I still think he's prob scum along with Promothelax.


Please don't sheep - explain why you think Promethelax is scummy. I also want to hear your reads on the other players and why you think Promethelax is the most scummy.

In addition, I expressed my strong pro-town sentiments toward the three most accused players on Day 1 - Lvdr, sideni, and Axero. That must count for something.


This is a point against you IMO - you were one of the only players to think they were pro town. Certainly you should have been somewhat suspicious of any of them at one point during day 1?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
August 11 2012 04:23 GMT
#860
EBWOP: and by "reads on the other players," I specifically mean Shadysands, Mkfuba, and Kronen.

As for why I thought your case against Mkfuba was bad... you vote mkfuba because you don't believe his answer, and you point out a lot of pro-town behavior in your accusation.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
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