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Yes, Hapa, I will give you what you want. Soon enough. Let me finish reading first.
I clearly outlined why I thought Lvdr and Axero was town. Lvdr in particular felt like he was being coached. Just because you and many others found them suspicious, does not mean that town Harry would have found them suspicious as well.
One thing I found suspicious about Promothelax was that he indiscreetly asked the mod what the rules were on encryption. It was almost as if he wanted to show the townies that he was a power role and he wanted to leave bread crumbs. Realistically, no power role would do that in fear that he will be targeted by the scums. This is especially the case because such alignment-sensitive questions could be asked via PM.
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On August 11 2012 13:23 Hapahauli wrote:
EBWOP: and by "reads on the other players," I specifically mean Shadysands, Mkfuba, and Kronen.
As for why I thought your case against Mkfuba was bad... you vote mkfuba because you don't believe his answer, and you point out a lot of pro-town behavior in your accusation.
His explanations are way too methodical. It is almost as if he came up with the reasons for his actions AFTER thinking about what would be the most logical explanation for his actions. And there is no trace of such line of thinking in the Mkfuba's initial posts including his initial accusation against Lvdr. Having played scum with Mkfuba, this does match his "underlying" meta.
Whatever. I will finish reading and see if I change my mind. I am for Promo lynch though, probably.
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On August 11 2012 12:17 Hapahauli wrote:
@ ShadySands - any other players stick out to you other than promethelax? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the other 3 non-confirmed players (mkfuba, YourHarry, Kronen)
I played with mkfuba as scum in Day 0.5, and his play this game differs enough from that for me to give him a clean bill of health. But I'll be watching him closely. Overall though, we'll probably be wasting our time if we focus most of our scumhunting energy on him.
YH--same, his play is a lot more logical and sensible than 0.5, which means I'm not that suspicious of him.
Kronen: I'm honestly concerned about Kronen. Why are you discounting the possibility of a bus vote?
Before the GK train left the station, Kronen didn't offer much except weak agreement with Prome's sideni case. Then the train took off and Kronen posted this to justify his vote:
On August 11 2012 07:44 Kronen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:35 Lvdr wrote:
Oh god Kronen thinks Sideni's case was good. I really need my own face brick... Quick rebuttal. I didn't say I thought it was good. I did however change my approach to looking at the proceeding because of it. So much of the early interchange was based off of mkfuba's case. It was the only piece of substance written at that time. His choice of looking at how people reacted or rebutted it is interesting. That being said he grasped too much at straws and he suppositions were unfounded. In the future however I'm looking at the foundation of what he did there. What I fear from the lynching happening tonight is that we won't learn anything from it. GK will have my vote for tonight for two reasons 1) I have no concrete evidence upon which to draw correlations from other people's lynching, 2)he's been the most inactive yet trolly... but I fear a vote for him will turn over less than votes for others.##vote GoodKarma
Basically Kronen votes for GK for two reasons that are extremely WIFOM, then acknowledges that he thinks other people are scummier than GK anyhow. In essence Kronen is saying to town "okay, I surrender my vote and give it over to the wagon." Had GK not flipped scum, then we would all call this terrible town play. But let's not let our success blind ourselves--bad town play still deserves to be called out, and think--if Kronen was scum, then the reluctance here makes sense as well, because it's the only way Kronen can vote for GK and not sound like he's flip-flopping to a quick bus.
I don't think he's nearly as much of a read as Prome is, but he's someone to keep an eye on--all the more because unlike Prome, he has the built-in halo of clinching the GK lynch above his head, which would ideal for a scum to have.
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On August 11 2012 13:26 YourHarry wrote:
Yes, Hapa, I will give you what you want. Soon enough. Let me finish reading first.
I clearly outlined why I thought Lvdr and Axero was town. Lvdr in particular felt like he was being coached. Just because you and many others found them suspicious, does not mean that town Harry would have found them suspicious as well.
One thing I found suspicious about Promothelax was that he indiscreetly asked the mod what the rules were on encryption. It was almost as if he wanted to show the townies that he was a power role and he wanted to leave bread crumbs. Realistically, no power role would do that in fear that he will be targeted by the scums. This is especially the case because such alignment-sensitive questions could be asked via PM.
I just read that encryption rules post from Prome. There are three possibilities, which are all plausible:
1) He's scum, trying to fake blue
2) If he hasn't rolled blue before, this could be a legitimate question (although putting it in the open thread is a little wierd)
3) He's a vet trying to bait a NK
1 and 3 are the likeliest--3 being most likely, ironically enough, because scum Prom in XXI was easily much smarter and more discreet with his posts.
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On August 11 2012 07:44 Kronen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 07:35 Lvdr wrote:
Oh god Kronen thinks Sideni's case was good. I really need my own face brick... Quick rebuttal. I didn't say I thought it was good. I did however change my approach to looking at the proceeding because of it. So much of the early interchange was based off of mkfuba's case. It was the only piece of substance written at that time. His choice of looking at how people reacted or rebutted it is interesting. That being said he grasped too much at straws and he suppositions were unfounded. In the future however I'm looking at the foundation of what he did there. What I fear from the lynching happening tonight is that we won't learn anything from it. GK will have my vote for tonight for two reasons 1) I have no concrete evidence upon which to draw correlations from other people's lynching, 2)he's been the most inactive yet trolly...but I fear a vote for him will turn over less than votes for others
. ##vote GoodKarma
@Shady, maybe you are right about Promo. I didn't think about baiting a NK. If this is true, talking about this is not really advantageous for town but the beans have been spilled
I do not think Kronen is a confirmed townie. Actually above makes me very suspicious of him. Kronen suddenly switches his suspicion from Lvdr, now that GK bandwagon seems to be gaining momentum. In addition, his reasoning for voting GK are that he has no better reads - even though he was on Lvdr's case previously - and that GK has been inactive. But he ends the paragraph with the (underlined for emphasis) that implies that he really believes that GK is a scum and that he fears that GK will not gather enough votes.
Currently, I support Kronen lynch.
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EDBWOP:
But he ends the paragraph with the phrase (underlined for emphasis) that implies that he really believes that GK is a scum and that he fears that GK will not gather enough votes.
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On August 11 2012 13:51 YourHarry wrote:
EDBWOP:
But he ends the paragraph with the phrase (underlined for emphasis) that implies that he really believes that GK is a scum and that he fears that GK will not gather enough votes.
I thought that phrase meant that he fears a GK vote, if GK flips town, will tell us a lot less than a lynch of someone else. Am I reading it wrong?
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On August 11 2012 11:40 Hapahauli wrote:
A couple of people I'm leaning Townie on:
Note, none of these players are confirmed by any means, there are just people I feel are likely town
Kronen - Kronen was the 6th and securing lynch vote for GoodKarma. While I won't rule out the possibility of a bus vote, given how sudden the lynch was on GK, I find it hard to believe that mafia could be that decisive in that situation.
ShadySands - Even though he's been slighly lurky, his play has been noticably different from his mafia play in day 0.5. Furthermore, his vote on Lvdr is something I don't feel mafia would do. He draws attention to himself too much near the lynch deadline. My read here is much weaker than the one on Kronen - consider it a "gut feeling"
I think a scum is more likely to bus their scum partner toward the end, when it becomes apparent that that his scum partner was going to be lynched regardless of their vote. GK bandwagon was starting to receive unparalleled support from town at this point, that I think scums are more likely to get on the bandwagon to earn some townie points.
I agree that ShadySands is likely town. Fighting the momentous bandwagon on scum is generally a town tell, but I wouldn't say he is confirmed town. I can imagine scum partner purposely disagreeing with the imminent scum lynch for exactly the reason why we find ShadySands townish.
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On August 11 2012 13:55 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 13:51 YourHarry wrote:
EDBWOP:
But he ends the paragraph with the phrase (underlined for emphasis) that implies that he really believes that GK is a scum and that he fears that GK will not gather enough votes.
I thought that phrase meant that he fears a GK vote, if GK flips town, will tell us a lot less than a lynch of someone else. Am I reading it wrong?
Oh. Hmm. It was unclear to me, but after re-reading the first sentence of his second paragraph, I agree with you.
Regardless, his attempt to justify his switch in voting does not seem very genuine. Basically, all he is trying to say is that he doesn't know any better lynch and that GK has been lurking which is basically what other people have been saying. The timing of the vote, as I mentioned earlier, is suspicious.
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On August 11 2012 12:20 Hapahauli wrote:
Actually, the above goes for EVERYONE NOT CONFIRMED:
@ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions.
TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above!
I expressed my suspicion on Kronen, mostly for his timing of the vote.
Mkfuba, I am beginning to feel less suspicious of him especially now that I have found the better target in Kronen. I still think Mkfuba is scummy.
Promo, I agree with ShadySands that he could have been baiting the NK. Still, I do not exclude the possibility that he wanted townies to think that he was a power role.
ShadySands seems town, for reason I stated earlier - that he disagreed with the GK lynch. In addition, our recent conversations pointing out his interpretation of Promethelax's encryption post seems very townie. He provided a logical real-time reaction that I think indicates he is actually wondering about Promo's alignment.
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And I just read Shady's post regarding Kronen. I was basically sniped. But it turns out that we have similar reads on him. 
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@ YourHarry and Shadysands - so if I can summarize both of your viewpoints, both of you are leaning to the Promo/Kronen scumteam?
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I am leaning Kronen scum, then mkfuba. Promo is now a null read, because Shady pointed out that he could have been baiting the NK as veteran. I can even accept Promo doing this as a VT.
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Here are my town reads.
Really strong town reads: Hapa, Lvdr, Sideni, Axero
Strong town reads: Shadysands
Maybe town: iamperfection
Null read: Dandel, Promo
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Oh wait. Axero flipped vigilante.
Oh shit. Maybe mkfuba is town.
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On August 11 2012 14:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ YourHarry and Shadysands - so if I can summarize both of your viewpoints, both of you are leaning to the Promo/Kronen scumteam?
Yep.
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@Hapa
When Iamperfection voted, there were already total of 3 votes. These 3 votes had high momentum behind them, as they happened in the matter of 3 minutes.
And then your posts urging him to vote:
On August 11 2012 07:36 Hapahauli wrote:
LET's ALL VOTESWITCH TO GOODKARMA
Sideni and Lvdr are BAAAD townies! GoodKarma has not stuck his neck out, has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni (easy targets), he hasn't made an original case or provided original analysis, and his play has been waaaaay too clean so far - Day 1 has been INSANE, there's no way people should be this clean!
On August 11 2012 07:37 Hapahauli wrote:
Please vote GK, we'll lobby in your absence.
By the way, when iamperfection said "I don't count as being here?" it was before you guys piled on your votes on GK. It is not clear that whether iamperfection would have made himself appear if you guy started voting for GK. So now that people realized he was there and that he was strongly being urged by you to vote GK, scum iamperfection may have felt the need to go with the crowed. In addition, the momentum of the bandwagon was so strong that it seems reasonable to expect that scums thinking at this point that any resistance is futile.
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I can accept that as a possibility, but I don't consider it very likely. Howabout Dandel Ion?
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EPT
